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8 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades to Make RIGHT NOW!

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

55 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 1, 2026
Published
Sat, August 1, 2026
21
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBrenton StrangeChase BrownD'Andre SwiftDak PrescottDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryDeVonta SmithGarrett WilsonHarold FanninHunter HenryIsaiah LikelyJ.J. McCarthyJake Ferguson
Player analysis

Player insights

21

A.J. Brown

NegativeRole44:14

Role context for DeVonta Smith's opportunity; Brown's vacated role is described as fantasy-friendly in terms of target share, first-read rate, and air-yard share, establishing the baseline for Smith's upside potential.

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Brenton Strange

NegativeProjection18:26

Brenton Strange is cited as a comparison point to Travis Kelce in terms of production benchmarks. While Strange is mentioned alongside Hunter Henry as a tight end option, the source emphasizes that neither Strange nor Henry reaches the 70+ catches and 700+ yards production level that Kelce has historically achieved, positioning them as lower-ceiling alternatives.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue4:13

Dynasty league-winner candidate positioned as a top-15 pick; the source describes Brown as one of the few running backs with significant upside potential in the current landscape, alongside James Cook, where both are being drafted at the top of the running back tier and represent positive investment opportunities over time. Brown was a league winner last year despite being taken as a top-15 pick in current drafts, representing the type of second-year breakout outcome the source envisions for Henderson without requiring Jalen Gibbs-level production.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeValue1:18

Swift is grouped with David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs as solid running backs being repeatedly drafted in redraft ADP, but the source uses him as a career-outcome ceiling comparison for Henderson. Swift has been a top-24 RB in points per game his entire career, landing between RB10 and RB25 range, which the source frames as a reasonable average outcome for Henderson despite Henderson's superior first-year efficiency.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveRole12:49

Dak Prescott has been one of the biggest drivers of tight end fantasy success for multiple seasons, providing context for Jake Ferguson's value as a tight end target beneficiary in Dallas's offense.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveValue29:39

Dynasty buy despite coaching change and QB uncertainty. Achane has averaged 17.3+ PPG every season and 20.5 PPG last year at age 24; the source views him as elite talent being undervalued as a low-end RB1 due to 2026 expectations when he's actually top-5/top-6 RB caliber. Losing Mike McDaniel and gaining Bobby Slowick creates pause, but Miami wasn't a top-5 scoring offense last year and Achane has consistently overcome circumstances. Contract insulation means the dynasty window extends beyond typical 6-month reddraft mindset. The source identifies the next 6-18 months as the optimal window to trade for Achane before the market reprices him upward. Achane's ability to overcome circumstances and potential upside from designed targets in Miami's depleted receiving corps and first-time pairing with mobile QB Malik Willis provide additional upside.

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Derrick Henry

NegativeRole20:40

Derrick Henry is cited as part of the 'Derrick Henry corollary'—a roster archetype that signals clear win-now goals in dynasty. When a team rosters Henry alongside Mike Evans, DeVonta Adams, and Travis Kelce, their championship window is immediate, and the team is unlikely to trade away these assets. This framework helps identify which teams are locked into win-now mode and therefore unlikely to be trade partners for these veteran players.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeValue44:03

Dynasty sell candidate despite stepping into AJ Brown's fantasy-friendly role (high target share, first-read rate, air-yard share). Going in the second round of FFPC main events by August, Smith is overvalued relative to unproven production; the source frames this as a sell opportunity similar to historical hype-selling successes like Garrett Wilson and Isaiah Likely, where peak draft cost precedes actual production.

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Garrett Wilson

NegativeValue40:20

Historical example of hype-selling success; Wilson was heavily hyped heading into year two with top-tier FFPC main event ADP after his offensive rookie of the year season, but Aaron Rodgers' injury derailed expectations. That year two peak was the window to sell, and Wilson has never reached that hype level again despite being a good player. Currently has fourth-round ADP and could deliver on that projection, but illustrates the danger of buying into extreme hype narratives.

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Harold Fannin

NegativeValue14:14

Fannon is overpriced relative to peers with similar projected targets and opportunities. The source notes Fannon has comparable workload and target projections to Jake Ferguson and Tucker Craft but is drafted as tight end five at a significantly higher cost, making him a poor value in premium formats where tight end pricing is already inefficient.

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Hunter Henry

PositiveDepth Chart10:30

Hunter Henry's target share is compromised by Patriots depth chart competition from Kahan Bouty, M. Holland, and Pop Douglas, who will collectively absorb 30–50 targets. This depth chart clutter contrasts sharply with Ferguson's cleaner Dallas situation and makes Henry a less attractive tight end target despite the source liking him individually. Historically good production-wise, Henry does not reach the 70+ catches and 700+ yards production level that Travis Kelce achieves, positioning him as a lower-ceiling tight end option.

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Isaiah Likely

NegativeValue35:35

Dynasty sell candidate despite theoretical upside and reuniting with Harbaugh in New York. Key concerns: Theo Johnson is projected to receive 70–80% of the usage Likely gets (suggesting a 60–40 split rather than Likely dominating targets); Jackson Dart is a poor passer with efficiency in the Caleb Williams/JJ McCarthy range, limiting target quality; Malik Neighbors could carve into Likely's target share if healthy; Likely has never exceeded 470 yards in a season and has underperformed relative to his usage historically. The source notes selling the hype has a ~65% hit rate historically, and Likely's case is entirely theoretical with no proven production. A reasonable stat line would be 80 catches on 102 targets (matching Jake Ferguson's 2023), but even that would feel like a "purgatory pick" given his draft cost and hype. The source would trade Likely straight up for Jake Ferguson, who produced 102 targets and 80 catches last year while being cheaper in redraft. Alternative: Chick Conqueuo offers similar theoretical upside at cheaper cost with better quarterback situation (Jaden Daniels).

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J.J. McCarthy

NegativeBust23:34

JJ McCarthy was one of the worst quarterbacks ever seen, performing at a Zack Wilson or worse level despite playing in Kevin O'Connell's top-five offensive system with elite weapons. The notion that he is genuinely competing for the Vikings starting job is unrealistic; internal plans and the coaching staff clearly want Kyler Murray as the starter, making McCarthy a non-threat to Murray's fantasy value.

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Jake Ferguson

NegativeValue8:40

Tight end value in premium formats (1.5+ PPR or 2 PPR); Ferguson is reasonably priced and projects to be one of six to eight tight ends capable of reaching 100+ targets based on Dallas's concentrated offense with dominant snap share and continuity with Dak Prescott—a historically strong tight end fantasy driver. Unlike Patriots depth chart competitors, Dallas has no annoying secondary pass-catchers; Ferguson is a bridge tight end who can match top-four/five production in given weeks. If Ferguson projects to do something similar to his 2023 stat line (102 targets, 80 catches), he's quickly getting to close to 15 points per game in premium formats—a scoring floor comparable to many receivers but at a lower draft cost. Ferguson occupies a blind spot where evaluators dismiss him for lacking ceiling, yet he offers consistent floor value that many higher-drafted tight ends lack. Most drafters fade the tight end range below the elite five, creating an edge for pairing Ferguson with another comparable mid-tier tight end.

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James Cook

PositiveValue4:13

Dynasty league-winner candidate positioned as a top-15 pick; the source describes Cook as one of the few running backs with significant upside potential in the current landscape, alongside Chase Brown, where both are being drafted at the top of the running back tier and represent positive investment opportunities over time. Cook was a league winner last year despite being taken as a top-15 pick in current drafts, representing the type of second-year breakout outcome the source envisions for Henderson without requiring Jalen Gibbs-level production.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveValue6:00

Dynasty trade success story; the source recommended Williams approximately 2.5 years ago before his free agency signing with Dallas, and he has since become a fourth-round pick in FFPC main events and prime-time formats, demonstrating the source's strong hit rate on dynasty recommendations and validating early contrarian positioning.

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Jaylen Warren

NegativeProjection32:06

Ranked 10th among elite efficiency RBs in fantasy points per opportunity (removing TD variance), trailing Gibbs, Bejon, Achane, McCaffrey, Henderson, Jonathan Taylor, Hampton, Chase Brown, and James Cook. Source notes Warren is the weakest of the top-10 group but still a quality player.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveValue23:14

Dynasty buy at current market value. Murray negotiated a favorable 1.3M cap hit with a no-franchise-tag clause, providing exit leverage. The quarterback competition with JJ McCarthy is not a real threat—McCarthy was one of the worst quarterbacks ever seen despite playing in Kevin O'Connell's top-five offensive system, performing at a Zack Wilson or worse level. Murray's rushing upside is significant: he had north of 500 rushing yards in 2024 and can return to being a 'Konami code' type quarterback. He has elite offensive weapons (Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson, Jordan Addison) and plays in Kevin O'Connell's system. If the Vikings win 10+ games and make the playoffs, there will be pressure to extend him at top-10 money rather than draft another mid-round QB in the stacked 2027 class. Downside is protected: even if the Vikings situation fails, Murray has higher leverage as a backup QB with multiple opportunities ahead (comparable to Gino Smith's rehab starter path). Potential for a 3-4 year marriage similar to the Stafford-McVay model.

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Mike Evans

NegativeRole20:18

Mike Evans is rarely available for trade in dynasty because he is typically rostered on win-now teams (alongside Derrick Henry, DeVonta Adams, and Travis Kelce) where owners are explicitly trying to win in the current year. The source notes that such veterans are not sitting on teams planning to tank. There is a secondary argument that holding Evans on a middle-of-the-pack team could yield more value if he has a strong month before declining, though this is noted as a dangerous strategy due to injury risk in older players.

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Travis Kelce

PositiveValue17:17

Travis Kelce is priced cheaply in dynasty despite projections suggesting he will outproduce many tight ends drafted ahead of him at age 36. The source notes that reaching 70+ catches and 700+ yards is rare for tight ends (only 8-12 players per year), making Kelce's historical production at that level valuable relative to his dynasty cost. Kelce led the Kansas City Chiefs in targets every year since Tyreek Hill left, securing 108 targets and 851 receiving yards last year; with Patrick Mahomes' familiarity and chemistry with Kelce, he has a realistic path to another 100-target season. However, accessibility is a key barrier: Kelce is typically rostered on win-now teams (alongside players like Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, DeVonta Adams) where owners acquired him for the same reason buyers want him, making trades difficult even at fair prices. The source acknowledges ranking Kelce a little low in dynasty rankings and emphasizes that winning this year matters when evaluating his value.

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Tyreek Hill

NegativeUsage22:22

Tyreek Hill is cited as historical context for Travis Kelce's target-share dominance with the Kansas City Chiefs. Since 2016 (over 10 years), either Hill or Kelce has been the leading target earner for the Chiefs. Since Hill's departure, Kelce has led the team in targets every year, underscoring Kelce's consistent role as the primary receiving option.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

498
0:05Reedraft ends, but dynasty is life. I'm Theo Greinger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire, talking a little bit of dynasty with dynasty expert Scott
0:13Connor of Destination Devi. We're going to jump off right off the top rope. Is the entire fantasy space, let alone the
0:21Dynasty community, underrating Trayvon Henderson, and is this a great time to trade for him?
0:29Yeah, I mean Trevon Henderson if you remember a year ago people expected him to be the next Jir Gibbs potentially what Devon Han became a better version
0:40of it and yeah he's in a backfield where guess what theo there's another running back there oh my gosh the fact that he's
0:48not going to get every target and every touch and every snap along with I think some selective data that you'll hear
0:56about how he doesn't do this well, or he's never going to get this type of work or this type of touch. It just
1:03feels like we've kind of neutered. I hear all this talk about there's not a lot of upside at running back. And if
1:10you look at best baseball reddraft ADP, I mean, we are just continuing to draft the same guys over and over and over.
1:18DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, and those guys are fine. But then you get right into that pocket and it's like, yeah, there's Tayvon
1:26Henderson. And I think we're not really appreciating. So here's a guy last year on a per opportunity basis was sixth in
1:33the league. The guys higher are like Gibbs, Bejan, Han, like he's on that list of when he's getting the ball, he's
1:42doing as much with it as almost anybody.
1:45And then the second part of it is you look at a guy like let's just take DeAndre Swift for instance, really good
1:50running back, hell of a career. He's actually been a top 24 running back points per game-wise his entire career.
1:57But that's kind of what you're going to get, right? He's somewhere between RB10 and RB 25. That's been his entire career. And it feels like that's almost
2:06with the efficiency that Henderson showed as a firstear player. That's almost what you could hope is the average outcome for him is DeAndre Swift
2:15career. Yet, we're drafting literally the current version of DeAndre Swift kind of right in that same bucket. But we're not accounting for the fact that
2:23Patriots could be the best offense in the league. If you look at Drake May's passing efficiency last year, I mean, elite. Oh, yeah. Annie can run and it's
2:32an offense that has continuity from last year plus adding AJ Brown, it's like you're you're buying, I think, an upside piece that's hidden in this fact that
2:40yeah, there's another running back in his backfield. But I don't know why that scares him away, Theo, because I'm not drafting Tayvon Henderson to get to Jir
2:47Gibbs or Bejian Robinson level. I don't have to pay that. But I could see a world where we look up in a year and
2:53it's like, "Wow, he's kind of like Chase Brown. He's kind of like James Cook."
2:57You know what I mean? Maybe he scores in a little bit of a different way. But it just doesn't make sense that people are
3:01kind of fading him. And it's largely just based off of some running back data and narrative that I don't think we're
3:07accounting for with many other prospects.
3:10>> It feels like recency bias. And I understand that the when the stakes were high, New England leaned into Raandre Stevenson. Win the Super Bowl, they
3:18leaned into Raandre Stevenson. But I think of like the whole revisionist history of how people are treating Trayvon Henderson now. Uh the guy was
3:2510th highest in in fantasy points per touch last year. He he had four 50 yard touchdown runs which was the second most
3:33in NFL history. And Scott, I'm hearing that as like a negative where people are like, "Oh, you know, it's a there's
3:39regression. Maybe the guy won't have four 50 yard touchdown runs." I mean, the guy was a home run hitter at Ohio
3:44State and he was a home run hitter last year. 5.1 yards per carry. He had 35 catches and he had 10 touchdowns. And
3:51people are treating him like this is a full-on fade. And it's funny to me where it's like the reddraft brain uh
3:59affecting the dynasty brain where Trayvon Henderson, it's just sort of being left in the dead in the water.
4:05Taking on risk is a skill in all levels of fantasy football. Is there a chance Stevenson runs pure again? Um maybe. But
4:13a year ago, like the idea that Roandre Stevenson would be some incredible impediment for a guy you took with top 40 draft capital who was a star at Ohio
4:23State ever since he was a freshman is just kind of baffling to me. And I think it's a bet on talent situation. And
4:28Scott, this is how you win in Dynasty.
4:31You take on these players where they have room to run in their profile. The unknown upside angle. We're not we're not playing Dynasty in a in a one-year
4:41box. This is a unknown upside. I love your James Cook. I love your Chase Brown. Doesn't need to be Jir Gibbs, but
4:47those other guys are league winners in multiple like last year league winners.
4:50Chase Brown and James Cook. Right now, we're taking them essentially as top 15 picks. Um, anything to add on Trayvon Henderson before we move on?
4:59>> No, I I think there's we hear a lot of talk this year about, you know, running backs are king. You have to have a
5:05couple running backs to start your draft regardless of the format. But I think there's plenty of opportunities if you do want to even buy into the Raandre
5:14side of the backfield. I'm okay with that, too. Right. I think he actually presents very similar to some of those other guys. There's nothing about him
5:22that's worse than David Montgomery or Josh Jacobs. He's just not projected to get as many touches. So, people push him down a couple rounds. But, I think you
5:30can build congruent backfields with a Raandre and then maybe somebody else earlier that poses a little bit of a different profile. And then you can also
5:39go with I don't know Tvon Henderson and then another one of those other guys. So I think it's just about how you pair
5:45these guys. You mentioned the word risk and upside. I think sometimes we kind of look at that in the wrong way. It's
5:52probably not for this podcast, but especially in like a dynasty perspective, too. This feels like one of the few RBs that is not already valued
6:00in the Chase Brown, James Cook or higher range where you could look up in seven months and you're like, "Wow, I actually
6:07got a positive investment from an RB."
6:10Whereas, doesn't it feel like a lot of these running back rooms, even on some of my dynasty teams, Theo, I look up and
6:15it's like, "Wow, I have Javvante Williams and Saquon Barkley and Kairen Williams. I feel good about that."
6:22None of those guys are anything other than I hope they survive into next year and if they give me the same projection
6:29next year, I feel good about it. But there's nothing else I'm looking to do with them. He's one of the few RBs I
6:34think in the current landscape that's not super expensive that does pose that potential attrition added value to his profile after this year.
6:44>> No, I absolutely love it and and I've always enjoyed podcasting with you, Scott. like, you know, if you play Dynasty, Scott's been been such an
6:51important voice. Um, and I always call you like you're sort of like an influencer for other Dynasty content creators. A lot of the stuff you've done
6:59over the years has been fantastic back during the Dynasty Trades and Five era up to Destination Devi. Um, and one thing that you've been so good at, and
7:07this could be a whole show, but just the structure of roster construction has been so important in in like your process. And I've sort of loved how
7:16you've talked about how not having to make decisions with running backs is a real edge for you where you have these
7:22sort of running backs on your roster where if they get their window of opportunity, they go right in the lineup. There's no like ifands or buts
7:29here. So, it's almost like the extremes here with the running back position.
7:33Henderson gives you kind of multiple outs with it, but it sort of fits your your MO in a major way. If Aroundre
7:39Stevenson goes down, you've got the league winner. ifandre Stevenson doesn't go down, you've got a guy that you can still put in your flex or your RB2
7:46position pretty much every week based on how you construct your dynasty team. So, really, really interesting stuff. And I'll always give you credit for this
7:54one. About two and a half years ago at this point, this is pre-signing with the Dallas Cowboys. I had Scott on. We did
8:00we we when I was uh doing a show over at Fantasy Points came on Dynasty Life and uh I said, "Give me a player to trade
8:07for right now." and you you threw like you know a lot of times this becomes paint by numbers where people say the
8:12same guys over and over again. You told me Javvante Williams and this was well before free agency and you're like someone's going to sign him. He's going
8:19to be a starter and look at us now.
8:21Javvante Williams is like a fourth round pick in FFPC main events and NFC uh prime times and Scott was all over that
8:28one. Your hit rate is excellent. So, when you put these names on the list today, there's a couple of them that are
8:33not going to get people excited, but you should pay attention. And one interesting name you put on there was Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys, who
8:40had a really good year last year and is now going in tight end 2 land. I've heard some tight end experts sort of
8:46just straight up fading him this year.
8:48Your thoughts on Jake Ferguson? Is he sort of a misunderstood player and a player that can help us a lot with our
8:53rosters?
8:55>> Definitely. And the reason I put him on there is a he's probably reasonable to buy. Now, you have to understand your
9:02format. I think if you're in a heavier tight end premium, so let's go at least5 or probably more applicable to 175, two
9:11extra points for or two points for a tight end reception. You're really looking at Ferguson as there's multiple outs. So, I'll get to his situation here
9:19in a second, but he's cheap enough that if you told me I could add him and I can flex him. I mean, he's probably one of
9:28the six to eight tight ends you can project to get a 100 targets just based on the team that he's on. So, that's the
9:35first thing. I don't care if he's the third option or the second option. It doesn't matter. If you're in this offense, and I'll talk about the Dallas
9:41offense in a second, why it's such an outlier.
9:45you can project him in that format as a flexw worthy player. So even even I can squint in a 1.5 premium where if I said
9:53if I'm flexing him, maybe he doesn't have the ceiling as maybe a receiver that I would put there, but he fits that
9:59line of he's good enough to be a flex, but he's also good enough based on his last couple years and what his
10:05projection is that he could also be your starter and you could probably construct around either one. So that's why I like
10:11him in that range. Also, Theo, he's just in the perfect offense. It is the most concentrated offense in the league. All
10:18the pieces fit together perfectly. They literally have a wide receiver one and a wide receiver two, which you can say 1 A
10:24or 1B, but they're totally different.
10:27They don't take anything from each other. And then you have a tight end over here that's going to dominate snaps, has numerous target seasons,
10:34that's 90 plus. And then you have concentration. Unlike a lot of other offenses, there are some depth charts where you go through and you're like,
10:42man, look at the Patriots, for instance.
10:45Patriots, I mean, I like Hunter Henry, but I look at guys like Kahan Bouty and M. Holland and Pop Douglas. They're
10:52they're annoying for a guy like Hunter Henry, right? They're going to get 30, 40, 50 targets, and you just don't like
11:00that. Dallas doesn't have that. So, it's not just the concentration plus the volume plus the efficiency plus the continuity that just makes him like the
11:10perfect bridge tight end. Like, he's one of those where if you say, "Man, I I didn't get one of the top four or five
11:15tight ends, but I need the next best guy that in a given week or in a given stretch could match those." He's one of
11:22the few. And it's really just because of his situation. and they have a couple other tight ends behind him that are not
11:28pass catching threats but will split snaps specifically for blocking. So it just feels like he's one of those guys that you can bridge you take him but I
11:37could also look at a build midway through my draft with Jake Ferguson and go ah I can punt tight end or oh I can
11:44also have him with another comparable tight end and he's good enough to be in my flex. So let's say I take Ferguson
11:50and then we have another guy we're going to talk about. Let's say I take Ferguson and that other guy. We'll get to them in
11:56a second, but I think both of those guys in a5 even like FFPC, you could squint and say those guys are comparable flexes
12:04and I really like that range. And guess what, Theo? Most people kind of fade this range. They think, "Oh man, if I'm
12:10not getting one of the top five, six tight ends, I'm punting it entirely."
12:14And I'm like, I think there's an advantage in maybe actually pairing those guys instead.
12:18>> Yeah, I love the take. And it's about finding edges and about finding value.
12:23And I think that there is a there's a lot of there's a lot of like emphasis of getting to the elite tight ends and and
12:30there's certainly elite tight ends that I really value, but it's those sort of middle of the pack guys that that you're
12:36getting this artificial uh artificial like discount on where you look at Jake Ferguson and he had two two of the last
12:43three years he's had over 100 targets.
12:45actually 102 in 2025, 102 in 2023.
12:49Attached to Dak Prescott, who's been one of the biggest drivers of of tight end fantasy success for multiple seasons.
12:56So, really like that one. He's tight end uh 14 um in most ADP sources for reddraft right now, even lower in
13:05dynasty. That's kind of a segue for this where when one of the one of the edges I've found over the years is sort of
13:12leveraging reed raft and best ball ADP when we're in July and August to maybe sell high buy low and those guys that
13:20have no buzz sometimes you can also uh get for cheaper just based on the fact that there's sort of no news is do you
13:27find edges this time of year Scott dur when we have actual training tamp for your dynasty rosters?
13:34Yeah, I think there's the edge in the news and then there's also the edge in coming into the news season by really
13:41understanding where those inefficiencies are in your dynasty market. I just mentioned uh a premium format where maybe it's 175 or 2 PPR. Typically,
13:50people don't really understand the equation of what a wide receiver versus a tight end target is worth there. And especially if you're getting into like
14:01best baseball formats or starters where it's 11, 12, 13, even some of the more deep ball leagues or dynasty leagues, it
14:09there's just a mispric on the tight ends that usually live in that range versus the receivers. So I'm looking right now,
14:16Ray has done some really really cool projections over on our site and Jake Ferguson is right there in terms of range of outcomes of workload and target
14:25volume. He's right there with a couple other tight ends that people really love, but you look at like Harold Fannon, Tucker Craft, he's right there
14:33in projected targets and opportunities with those guys. And this incorporates the Trinity tool that we have over there, which is our wide receiver usage
14:40tool. But you look at the cost of Harold Fannon, he's like tight end five and he's much more expensive. And so just
14:47you have to understand how you're going to build your room and especially in those deeper formats where it's higher premium. Jake Ferguson, if you actually
14:54project him just to do something similar to what he did last year, you're quickly getting to close to 15 points a game in
15:01that format. There's not many receivers where you're like, I know they're going to do that. So, I think that's where he's in that really like just just blind
15:10spot range where people just view, I don't want it if it doesn't give me great ceiling. Yet, there's many other tight ends that people are drafting and
15:18they just don't see the ceiling. I think we might talk about one of those a little later. Yeah, we're going to talk
15:22about one for sure. Um, yeah, and a big shout out to Ray Garvin. He was actually my first guest when I started here at
15:28Rotoire. Unbelievable work by Ray over at Destination Devi. Also yourself. Uh, shout out to to to my guy Shane Manila who does great podcasts with you over
15:37the years. Let everybody know kind of what what your cadence is, what's dropping for you contentwise on a weekly basis over there.
15:44>> Well, appreciate you giving us the platform. Uh, ddfantasyfoot.com.
15:48We're actually revamping our website. We have a ton of really cool Dynasty tools.
15:53Uh there's just a new tool suite that's going to be coming out here very shortly. So that's going to be around
15:58August 1st. Uh my content schedule, Theo, I do the show with Shane Mannequin Show. We do that every other week. We
16:04have our proprietary trade show. If you used to watch Dynasty Trades in five, uh every single Friday we do a trade show.
16:11Myself, Shane, and shout out to Ty Declair who's a great great host. say to to host Shane and I and manage both of
16:18our personalities on one stream. It takes a specific individual and he's really good at doing that. So that's every Friday. Uh Ray and I will be doing
16:26the Trinity show during the season. So that's wide receiver usage, tight end usage. That'll be weekly. And then I'll have another show, Dynasty Takeaways.
16:36And then maybe just some random stuff, some live drafts, uh some war shows. But yeah, contentwise, three, four times a week on YouTube. you you'll see me
16:45during the season and it's starting to ramp up with that new website. So check us out. We got a free community over in
16:50the Discord and if you like engaging in this type of conversation, we want to see you over there.
16:54>> Yeah. And Scott's also a really really good reddraft manager. I've I've had the misfortune of going up against him in
17:00some Vegas drafts for FFPC. Uh really really you're great at all all dynasty uh and reddraft formats. Also best baseball best baseball best baseball
17:08best baseball best baseball best baseball best baseball best baseball best baseball best baseball best baseball best guy too. So Scott, you're
17:09you're you're living the life. Uh you're about this life for sure. Um, one one interesting player that we're going to talk about, you know, it's obviously an
17:18edge in in fantasy, especially in Dynasty where we talk about older players because nobody wants him and a lot of people write him off and you're
17:26going real old. You're going 36-y old tight end and a well-known one. Um, but he's dirt cheap right now. Talk about
17:32Travis Kelce.
17:34Yeah, I put Travis Kelce on this list because I do think as gross as it is, if you go through and you just go through
17:40any site, I mean, I'm looking at ours, but go through any and just look at Travis Kelce's quote unquote projections and it's hard not to squint and say,
17:50"Yeah, he's probably going to outproduce a lot of the tight ends that are drafted ahead of him, some of the tight ends
17:56that people think have a little bit more ceiling." But, you know, I think we really underestimate, you know, how hard it is for a tight end to get to like 70
18:04for 700 and let's just say five, six touchdowns. Like, we throw numbers like that around for receivers and we're like, "Ah, that guy doesn't matter." But
18:14like for tight ends, it 50 for 500 is pretty much something that any regular starter can typically get to. But when
18:21you start getting up into the 70 plus catches, the 700 plus yards, like there's typically only 8 to 12 guys a
18:28year that ever even get close to that.
18:31Now, some blow it out of the water, right? But you look at where Kelsey's priced and like it's hard to not say
18:39he's a worse bet to get to that range than some of these other guys. And I like some of these other tight ends, but
18:46guys like Brentton Strange, you know, Hunter Henry, like historically Hunter Henry's good, but he's not at that 70 for 700 level. You know, it's slightly a
18:54little bit lower than that. So, I just think Kelsey's one of those players that it's mercenary production just like you'd be drafting a running back for.
19:03But I think the biggest key, and I want to ask you this in Dynasty, because I think this is a barrier that kind of
19:08blocks out a lot of Dynasty content that we hear. More than likely, Travis Kelce is pretty cheap in Dynasty, right? In a
19:16given league.
19:17>> Yeah.
19:17>> But what happens when 95% of the Travis Kelce shares across all the leagues you're in are already parked on a team
19:24that's rostering for the exact same reason you want to buy him for?
19:27>> At that point, the price isn't about what his dynasty profile is about. It's about a lot of times, especially as we
19:33get closer to the season, what is the person that has him using him for? And it's typically the exact same reason
19:40they already have. him. They traded for him in March. They traded him for him at the end of last year, right? So, they
19:45already have him for the reason you want to buy him for. So, in that case, when you say, "Oh, go buy this player cheap.
19:51He should be only worth a second or twothirds or whatever it might be." But then you go to the manager, I'm like,
19:56"Theo, yeah, I'd really love to buy Kelsey. I'll give you my 28 second and a third next year." And you're like, "H,
20:03it's a fair price, but where I have him slotted on my team, I don't really want to sell him for that. I need to sell him
20:10for something else that helps me or something else that boosts another position. So, the barrier isn't his dynasty price, it's his accessibility.
20:18And that goes for a lot of veterans that people say, "Oh, just go by." More than likely, Kelsey or Mike Evans, they're
20:24not sitting on a team that is planning to tank. Something's already been moved.
20:28So, how do you navigate those? Because I think that blocks a lot more deals and content creators never talk about it.
20:34It's a really interesting one because it's it's team goals and a lot of times in in in Dynasty you can spot those
20:40rosters a mile away. It's the the Derk Henry corollary. You talked about Mike Evans. If you're entering the year with Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, Devonte
20:51Adams, Travis Kelce, your goals are very clear. You are looking to win this year.
20:57Your window is now. And if it's not, then you're playing Dynasty a little bit incorrectly. I mean, there is an argument, Scott, that if I'm somewhere
21:05in the middle, I'm better off holding Mike Evans and getting maybe a month of him smashing and I'll get more uh than I
21:12would now, even though the ADP I understand that like that argument. Um, but it's still a dangerous game because of older players and the potential to
21:19break down. So, it's a really interesting one and I think Travis Kelce is like the ultimate example of this one. The one the one uh difference would
21:29be maybe it's a a manager that has incredible depth at the tight end position and they look at him as sort of
21:35an expendable asset if you're not flexing him, but maybe I could get some draft capital. Maybe that's a window for me to go out and get a usable running
21:42back at some point of the season. Maybe a usable wide receiver if I'm thin there. But it's a super interesting conversation. But I think Kelsey, it's
21:50just like when we talk about Kelsey, it's, you know, and I and my dynasty rankings, there's going to be a big
21:54update beginning of August. You can get all my reddraft rankings, my Dynasty rankings over at rotowire.com. Use the code Theo20, you'll get 20% off. But
22:03like I'm guilty of it, too. I probably have Travis Kelce a little low in Dynasty because this year matters. And I
22:09think we get away from that, Scott, with like the winning championships is our goal and this year absolutely matters.
22:16And since 2018, the leading target earner for the Kansas City Chiefs has been Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. Oh, actually, no, I take that back. I go
22:25back to I give him disrespect there. I believe it's actually 2016. So, we go all the way back, you know, more than 10
22:31years now. And and you also have since Tyreek Hill left, uh, Travis Kelce's led him in targets every year. And last
22:37year, we thought it was going to be Rashi Rice. Travis Kelce ends up with 108 targets, leads the team. and the
22:43familiarity with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the chemistry, when the going gets tough, he's going to check down to him. Even with Rashi Rice and
22:50even with Kenneth Walker, so like if he can get another 100 target uh season this year at 36, it's just continues to
22:57build on his resume. 851 receiving yards last year too, Scott, which I just like did like a little bit of a double take,
23:03but it's he's a compiler. He puts it together. End of the year, the stats are there. Really, really interesting one.
23:09Um, let's pivot over. Let's talk about quarterback. And let's talk about you.
23:14You listed one quarterback as a buy. And it's interesting because this player's kind of always in the news. I've made bullish cases for him, you know,
23:22throughout the month of July here. Um, but it's Kyler Murray. Talk about Kyler Murray. and maybe we even have an even
23:29uh easier time trading for him with some of this training camp non- news where yeah it's a quarterback competition but the chances of JJ McCarthy starting this
23:38year to me I would be really really surprised by it based on the struggles last year based on the team goals based
23:45on guys like Justin Jefferson struggling um Murray's just sort of there and the chance of him returning to being a you
23:53know quote unquote Konami code type quarterback had north of 500 rushing yards in 2024. That disappeared last year. I think a chance for that to
24:02bounce back. Your thoughts on Kyler this year. Just feels like a good value everywhere.
24:08>> Yeah, it does. And I do think there was probably a better window. And oftent times when you don't get in at the best
24:14window or the best price, people typically kind of move on, right? Like I know other people got a better deal six
24:21months ago when everything was in limbo about where he was going to be. And so I don't want to buy now because it feels
24:27like I'm buying on the way up. Uh but my narrative on Kyler is first off, he's not as bad as people make him out to be.
24:34Um I just read that Matthew Coller article about Kyler, basically interviewing everybody that he knows that's known Kyler. Like just search it
24:41out, you'll be able to find it. Gives you a little insight. And of course, you know, he's a mouthpiece for the team and
24:47he's probably spying his pin a certain narrative, especially in July, about the quarterback situation and about Kyler.
24:54But if you read that article and just listen to the tea leads there, this is not a competition. This is not we hope
25:01JJ McCarthy wins the job at all. So I'm already dismissing that of like if there's even just a little thought that
25:09Kyler's not going to be the starter for every single game and that is not the internal plan and that is not what all
25:14the weapons and the front office and the coaching staff wants. I think you're kidding themselves or kidding yourselves because JJ McCarthy was one of the worst
25:22quarterbacks we've ever seen. Yeah, Theo, >> this is supposed to be like God's gift to offense, right? With Kevin O'Connell and all these weapons, like both can't
25:32be true. So, I think betting into a situation where you have offseason, you hear a lot of these analysts will talk
25:40about the best offensive environments and the best play callers, it's Kevin Okonnell is always in the top five, right?
25:46>> Yeah. You can't look at JJ McCarthy's performance and go, "Wait a second. He was that bad with something that we
25:53consider to be top five.
25:55Like he's awful. Like Zack Wilson or worst level awful." So the thought that he's even competing for the job I think
26:02is the first thing that makes Kyler a good buy. The second thing that I really like is there's a lot of friction with
26:09this situation too. Kyler chose the Vikings right now. They chose him because he was 1.3 million for them towards the cap this year. So that's a
26:17great deal for them. But he chose the Vikings. He negotiated his deal with a no franchise tag clause, which is basically if I smash because of Justin
26:27Jefferson and TJ Hawinson and Jordan Addison and Kevin O'Connell and whatever it is, you guys aren't going to be able to hold me hostage. I'm hitting the
26:34market again. Now, they accepted that because they didn't really have any other choice. But I also think if Kyler hits and it looks even moderately good,
26:45Theo, can you imagine if the Vikings go 10 and seven, make the playoffs, maybe win a playoff game, is there going to be
26:52a lot of pressure for them to give Kyler Murray whatever it takes >> because they they let Sam Darnold walk, right? They let Daniel Jones walk. They
27:01messed up the McCarthy pick. They'd be drafting in the middle rounds again in a stacked quarterback class. And you know, as much as Okonnell might want another
27:08shot, I don't know if they want to let him draft another mid round quarterback that's the QB 5, six, seven off the
27:14board. So, it feels like it's Kyler knows not just what he needs to do, but he knows what the Vikings have to do and
27:22he set himself up perfectly for literally just a rocket ship of success.
27:26Now, it could go wrong, but it feels like that's the kind of situation I want to buy in in Dynasty because if it works
27:32out great, they extend him. He's not going to be a top three paid QB, but they're probably gonna have to pay him
27:37top 10 money, but it could be a marriage that works out for three, four more years. And it could be like another
27:44Stafford McVey situation where it's just a great relationship that goes on for three, four more years. And that's a great dynasty by if it happens. If not,
27:53you know what? Will Kyler Murray get another chance at even like a Justin Fields level role or something like that? Like it's not even if you're
28:01completely wrong, it's not a complete zero cuz you still have probably a higher leverage backup QB that's going to get another fringe oper. I mean, Gino
28:10Smith got another job for the third time as a rehab starter. So, it just feels like there's a lot of upside and very
28:17little to lose.
28:19I love the argument about people look at the fact that there's a million quarterbacks in this class and and we talked about this in the pre-show just
28:27how excited we are about the 2027 uh class coming in for Dynasty and for Reedraft for that matter. But if you get
28:34into a situation where you're a winning team, you box your team out from getting access to these guys unless they're willing to sell future first round
28:43picks. Is Minnesota going to be in a position if they win 10 games with Kyler Murray this year, especially like you
28:49said after the JJ McCarthy pick that they're willing to trade this year's firstrounder and next year's firstrounder to move up like nine spots
28:59and get access to one of these guys?
29:01Maybe. There's also a chance that a lot of these quarterbacks are all drafted inside the top 15. You know, these guys
29:07going in the Jackson Dart range uh doesn't always happen. And I mean, we look at sort of what happened with Tai
29:12Simpson last year going, you know, in the teens when some people thought he'd go 32, 31. It's a really interesting one. And I think Kyler Murray is just
29:20kind of tethered to this situation, betting on himself. I love that you brought up Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold.
29:25Imagine they did that again. I mean, this this uh front office would just get destroyed if Kyler Murray was able to be
29:32even an exciting bridge quarterback and win games for somebody until their quarterback was ready. So, really interesting one. I'm gonna go with Devon
29:39Achan. And I just feel like this is kind of the inflection point season where we talk about being able to leverage
29:46reddraft, leverage best baseball. Achan has averaged 17.3 points or more in every single season of his career. He averaged 20 and a half points per game
29:57last year. He's 24 years old and people are treating him like he is going to completely completely fall apart. Um, I
30:05get it and I understand that losing Mike McDaniel, an excellent play caller, and going with Bobby Slowick sort of gives us a little bit of pause. Um, and Malik
30:15Willis is sort of the great unknown, but it's not like Miami was a top five scoring offense or something last year.
30:21A Chan's always been over able to overcome his circumstances.
30:25I and I understand the Tua Tongabloa splits for him have always been a little bit better, but I look at Achan as a guy
30:31who just got this huge contract. we're sort of not playing Dynasty in in a in a six-month window with him anymore
30:38because of the contract insulation. And I just think he's an elite talent sort of being pushed and treated as sort of
30:45maybe a low-end RB1 because of the 2026 expectations where he's every bit a top five, top six running back. And that
30:53might be a little disrespectful to even say that. Um, he's an elite fantasy asset, especially in Dynasty. And I think we're just in that perfect part of
31:02the reddraft baseball mindset that I might have my best window to trade for Devon Achan maybe within the last 18 months and maybe in the next 6 months.
31:12What happens if he comes out the gate and he is by far the leading target earner from Miami on a bunch of designed
31:18targets cuz they have nobody there. And what about he's never played next to a mobile quarterback like Malik Willis.
31:25What if we get to Devon Achan ripping off some home runs, getting a couple of 40 plus yard rushes early in the season
31:31and people say, "Okay, this works. It actually works with him." So, it's a little bit of like your Trayvon Henderson correlary except it's not
31:39theoretical with Devon Chan in any means. It's an elite talent that we have access to because of fear right now in
31:47the marketplace with the reddraft and baseball ADP seeping in.
31:51>> Yeah, I like the call. And I think it's one of those where it again it's a short-term narrative that's driving Han
31:57down. Remember earlier when I mentioned the Tayvon Henderson numbers. So last year when you remove touchdown variance these were the top 10 in fantasy points
32:06per opportunity. Gibbs, Bejon, Achan, McCaffrey, Henderson, Jonathan Taylor, Amarian Hampton, Chase Brown, James Cook, Jaylen Warren. There's not a bad
32:17player on that list, right? I mean, Jaylen Warren's probably the one that comes in at 10th where you're like, "Okay, he doesn't belong with the other
32:23nine." Uh, but here's a couple things that I would say about Han. I agree that this year's projection is definitely not
32:30favorable compared to the other running backs going in the range, but that's just this year. I mean, we have Malik Willis as the second lowest passing
32:38volume quarterbacks amongst all of the full-time starters. There's a few others that are split between like the Browns and the Cardinals and the Falcons, but
32:46outside of everybody else that's a regular starter, he's the lowest, but I just look at that efficiency and it's like, okay, maybe I'm not going to get
32:53an absolute league winner break fantasy winner with Devon Chan.
32:59But here would be my push back a little bit on this one, Theo. And I think interesting for people to think about,
33:06he's already expensive, but if you're going to fade Devon Achan for part of the narrative that you talked about, because I think that's probably the
33:13reason people are like, I'm just going to, it's not that I don't like him. I would take him, but I'm not going to
33:17click him because there's so many other good players in the range. There's another guy going right in the range of Devon Achan. If you're fading Achan and
33:25you're kind of thinking about, okay, what Theo said, maybe I don't agree with that. I want to fade him. Why isn't
33:32Amari and Hampton your RB2 or RB3?
33:36He has Mike McDaniel. He has the potential elite offense. You know what else he has, Theo? He has a quarterback that once threw it 720 times in a season
33:46and fed a running back in Austin Eckler 130 targets. So all the things you're bashing Achan for, like Hampton's getting it all, but yet Hampton Hampton
33:57is a guy people will say, "Ah, I've never seen it." You know what I mean?
34:00Like it feels like if you're gonna fade Han, you should be way over eight weight on Hampton. I haven't gone like full
34:06steam into like fade Han, go all in on Hampton. But when you compare the two and what one loss versus one is getting
34:14kind of feels like if you're skipping over Han, just take Hampton in that same spot.
34:18>> It's a really really interesting take and we've had a lot of sort of reddraft discourse on Hampton. Certainly people talking about guys like Katon Mitchell
34:26and and Ray. That was one of the things we talked about when he came on. Um, but Hampton, if we just go through like a
34:32mental exercise, I think one great way to leverage any format, especially Dynasty, is you say to yourself, who's who who's going to go in the 2027 first
34:44round in reddraft, and you start playing this story where how does this guy get there? One of the easiest narratives is
34:51Amarian Hampton falls in the end zone a bunch of times this year for LA looks like the back that went in the first
34:56round uh and is like the fifth pick next year. There's a chance that he goes ahead of Genty and a bunch of these
35:02other draft uh other running backs that are, you know, appealing and maybe going ahead of him right now. He could flip
35:08the script on on a ton of them. So, I think it's a really interesting one. Um Han interesting discourse as well. Let
35:14us know in the comments what you think about Hampton, what you think about Han.
35:17they're sort of close enough to one another in dynasty value. Um, and let us know, do you think either of those guys
35:24should be ranked ahead of, you know, the Ashton Genties, the Jeremiah Loves, who seem to be completely locked in ahead of
35:31those guys in a lot of these dynasty rankings. Let's talk about some sells here. And these will, you know, the the
35:36buys are always like people get excited about those. This is the time of the show where people start to get angry
35:42because it's going to challenge some of their priors. So, we're going to go um least controversial to maybe most controversial. Scott, we'll give you a
35:49little chance to warm up here. Let's go Isaiah likely. Um because he's a player that I've talked about a bull case for.
35:56He's reuniting with Harbaugh. Um was with him in in Baltimore, chose to come over as a free agent to New York. And
36:03now we're in a situation where even if Malik Neighbors is trending up and even if you believe Malik Neighbors will be
36:08playing in week one, and I don't believe he'll be playing in week one, but even if you believe this latest optimism that
36:14he could play in week one, there's still a pathway for likely to be the number two target on New York. Um, you're
36:20looking to trade him. Is this a trading a player at potentially his peak dynasty value without him doing a single thing
36:27narrative?
36:29>> Yeah, it is. I also think there's a couple factors that are pushing Isaiah likely up into this range. I think the
36:36old he could be the number two target on the offense is driving his value into a range that probably Here's the thing
36:43about Isaiah likely. Is he good enough to be in that range? We use a contract as a reason that the Giants are going to
36:50do X Y and Z. And that does have some merit. Like it's not like they're not going to use him. But the reality is
36:56when when you hit free agency, Theo, guess what? You get >> money.
37:01>> Yeah.
37:01>> You can't look at that and go, "Oh, he's one of the top six highest paid tight ends or top eight highest paid tight
37:06ends and that means he's going to actually produce there." Like when a guy hits free agency and he's available with just money, he's normally going to get
37:13money. He's never had more than 470 yards in a season. If you look at his Trinity or his usage for his career,
37:21it's been extremely poor. Not only has it been low, but it his performance with the usage that he's gotten has been
37:29lower than what you would expect with that usage. So, he steps into a situation where yes, he's going to be one of the target one of the higher
37:38targeted guys on the team just because of the nature of the way they've built their receiver room. Uh, but the other
37:43thing is they have another tight end and maybe it's just our projections versus others. we have Theo Johnson getting 70 to 80% of the usage that Isaiah likely
37:52gets. So that isn't like Isaiah likely is going to get 80 targets and Theo Johnson's going to get 20. I think
37:57that's probably much more like a 6040 split. So there is another tight end there that yeah, he might not be a great
38:05starter, but he's good. He's good enough to take some away from Isaiah likely.
38:10But on top of that, my biggest concern is Jackson Dart's not a good passer.
38:15like he's he's in that Caleb JJ McCarthy range of like his efficiency on passing was very poor. So I'm looking at not
38:24only maybe average volume, but also the quality of the targets Isaiah Likely is going to get, let alone that if Neighbors comes back, then the p the
38:35piece of the pie that goes to Neighbors, you can probably carve that out. And it does hurt Isaiah likely on that regard.
38:40So, it just feels like a guy that I can probably get Jake Ferguson for Isaiah likely, >> right? Straight up. Right% if I'm
38:48building my team in a certain way, like that's the type of trade that I would make. And can I swap something else? Can
38:54I turn a second, a third into a second?
38:56I mean, whatever the deal might look like, he feels like a player I'm totally comfortable in the range that he's in of
39:03I I'll see how it plays out. Even if he's good, even if he's better than expected. What would you say is a good stat line for Isaiah likely
39:11this year? If he put that up, people would take him into next year going, "Man, I really feel good about him now."
39:16What What do you say a reasonable line would be for him?
39:19>> You know, it's it's funny because you mentioned Jake Ferguson, and I think that that's if he just does what Jake
39:24Ferguson did last year and he gets 102 targets and gets 80 catches, I think people would be really excited about that one. Um, but you're already
39:34referencing Jake Ferguson who's cheaper than him and going alongside of him in reddraft. So, I think you make a really interesting case. Now, I think the bull
39:42case for Isaiah likely is neighbors can't stay healthy and maybe there's a margin where he gets used and he ends up
39:50getting 115 to 120 targets. But I think a we've had this conversation before in years past and a lot of times it's just
39:58selling the hype in Dynasty. It's not undefeated, Scott. Sometimes you get burned, but the hit the hit rate for selling the hype, I'm gonna guess it's
40:08probably, and I don't, this is not like scientific. I'm not tracking this, but I'm going to guess we're getting a 65%
40:14hit rate on selling the hype. Even when we go to the top of the food chain, I remember having this conversation with
40:20you where we were both in on Garrett Wilson heading into year two. I remember we were in Vegas sort of talking about
40:28him at the time, like FFPC main events.
40:30I remember taking the guy very highly.
40:32Aaron Rogers goes down, doesn't deliver.
40:35That was sort of the peak of Garrett Wilson in all formats. And your window to sell him that year coming off of a
40:42wide receiver 2 season where he was AFC or or he's the offensive rookie of the year. Um, and it was just Garrett
40:49Wilson's going to be the next Justin Jefferson. He just got uh Aaron Rogers and all that kind of stuff. You had this
40:54window of opportunity to sell and it's never reached that peak again. and and Wilson's a really good player. I think Wilson could have a great season this
41:02year. Um he could deliver in a fourth round ADP like quite easily. Um but it's just sort of the correlary of selling on
41:09the massive extreme hype and with likely it's sort of all theoretical. I haven't seen him do it for a year. Uh I think
41:16this was Pat Karine. I and it sort of resonated with me. Um I it might not have been Pat, but it was it was maybe
41:23Pat. Um so if it was somebody else, apologies. Um, but they said it's sort of like a this is this you can get
41:29Chicka Conquo for for cheaper essentially and it's the same theoretical upside swing with a way better quarterback in Jaden Daniels.
41:38That sort of made me question a little bit of my likely enthusiasm. I'm not off of him, but I think it's an interesting
41:45conversation to have. Yeah, I think just to kind of sum it up, we get enamored with players that were maybe suppressed or held back because of a
41:56situation. I think people viewed likely that way. So, they were excited for this ascension of him going to a new team and
42:02getting paid. But if you look at the the the 17game average for this player is 60. Would you take 65 receptions on 90
42:11targets for 750 yards and five touchdowns for Isaiah likely? Would you take that, Dio?
42:19>> I think you'd probably take it, but you wouldn't feel like you you'd feel like you sort of it would feel like a purgatory pick
42:26based on where he's going and and like the reddraft and the steam and kind of stuff. I I think I'd probably at the end
42:31of the day say I can get through with that in my tight end spot, especially in tight end premium, but it's not an edge
42:37pick. It's more of just a structural guy.
42:40>> Yeah. And that's Daltton Concincaid's uh 17game average yet nobody likes him. And it feels like even if he if he just
42:49doesn't get injured to the point where he can't play football, it feels like he can probably go out there and give you
42:54that. And again, we play a per week per game contest here, right? This is not like how much do I get for the entire season.
43:02Like I'm trying to look at weekly usage.
43:05We play a week- toeek game, especially in reddraft where you're setting lineups. It just feels like there's excitement for him. And part of it is
43:12just because he was stuck. And people like guys that emerge from like backup roles and ascend and they typically attach to those. It's just there's
43:20always been like a cult following with Isaiah likely. So, we'll see how it plays out. It's been somebody I've sold all my Dynasty shares and I could be on
43:27here next year if we pot again next year going, "Hey, I really liked his usage.
43:31I'm willing to buy in now, but I just don't think it's that big of a swing to do that next year versus what I
43:39potentially could do with him right now because there's a lot of excitement.
43:42>> Yeah, we'll definitely put again next year. Scott, you've been absolute fire, but hopefully the people don't cancel you after these next two guys because
43:49I'm sure Scott's going to explain it out." Um, does Shane Manila like this one? is my question for you. But your
43:55next cell is a wide receiver who you know by this time uh maybe by this this time in August might be going in like
44:03the middle of the FFPC main event like second round when we get to Vegas. Um they steam it up in every single format.
44:11Devont Smith and the narrative is easy.
44:14He's going to step into the AJ Brown role. It's been a really fantasy friendly role in terms of like target share, first read rate, airy yard share,
44:22and Devont Smith, we know he's good.
44:24He's averaged 15 points per game twice in his career. Um, he's got the pedigree. Everybody's sort of saying the right things, and you're you're
44:30considering him a potential cell right now.
44:38>> Yeah, definitely. I think his best comparable if you look at like kind of how you think his career is going to
44:44play out over the next couple years, it's actually Terry McLaren.
44:49>> Just compare their two >> historic numbers, their usage over the past five years that Smitty's been in the league and I think they're very
44:57comparable. Yet, what do we hear about Terry McLaren? Um, he's he's very solid.
45:01He's very steady, but he's only two years older than Devonte Smith. But it kind of feels like that's the path that
45:08he's going down. So, I actually agree that this year he's a decent pick, but I think we're elevating him because the
45:15temporary move with AJ Brown moving on.
45:18I think we're elevating him into a range that because there were times where Terry McLaren was close to a wide receiver one in price. Like there were a
45:26few times where it was like we elevated him way higher than probably he deserved. Now he's down where he probably should be. You know, top 25,
45:35top 18 to 25, he's somewhere in there.
45:37But that kind of feels like where Smitty was. Uh the interesting thing is it isn't like when you remove AJ Brown that
45:44it just automatically reverts to Devonte Smith. AJ Brown is better than Devonte Smith. He's not going to take his role and do what he did. So I think it's
45:54probably he's just at his peak. Theo, does that mean if I have him on a couple teams, I can't see a path to top 15, top
46:0312 production this year? Sure I can. But just understand that this is probably the peak. This situation, this narrative, this season is probably the
46:12peak. I'm going to get what I'm going to get, but it feels like he's one of those receivers that typically is not in the
46:17range that people chase that a lot of people are super excited to buy into.
46:23Like I I know he's really really good, but how much am I paying at his peak?
46:28And this feels like a peak year where I'm fine selling that. And in a year I probably can get him 20% cheaper if he
46:34just does his typical, you know, he might go 90 for,100, eight touchdowns. That's a great season.
46:40That's a wide receiver one season. Yet I think people kind of think he's going to give them more than that. And I just
46:46don't see it for a guy that's basically been used how he has his whole career. I think he's Terry McLaren. Terry
46:51McLaren's had some really good years.
46:53Fringe wide receiver, one years, but I think that's all Smitty is.
46:57Jaylen Wadd uh plus or Devont Smith?
47:03>> I I think easily Jaylen Wadd. I think you could argue Jaylen Wadd right there with Devonte Smith.
47:09>> When you look at Devont Smith and you've been so good about this over the years, is he the type of asset that fantasy
47:16managers should be looking to tear down from? or because you have this window of opportunity, opportunistic wide receiver one hype and ADP uh boost from read
47:27draft and baseball. Is this the type of player that you're looking to to tear up from? Could I turn Dvont Smith into a
47:34wide receiver you really love? Like when you have an asset that's like this, Scott, are what way would you gravitate towards? I'm sure you can make a case
47:41for both, but your your gut instinct with a with a asset like Dvont Smith, is it a tier up or is it a tier down?
47:50I think it could be both. I think you have to kind of know your format to decide which one's more advantageous. If
47:55it is a deeper league, I definitely think you can approximate Devonte Smith's production in a different way.
48:04Uh I think the problem is like who who would come to mind, let's just assume we're doing a a 10 starter dynasty
48:10league here. Who would come to mind that you would feel comfortable enough starting, but that second piece you could get on
48:18top of that player you'd have to now start in place of Dant Devonte Smith would warrant you maybe able to get up
48:24even if it's not a 27 first, I could net a future first, maybe a 28 first. Who Who would be that range of receiver that
48:31you would feel comfortable in that last spot? Like would you be willing to go down to because I don't think you can
48:37get the range of other like valued receivers. I don't think you can get, you know, guys like Lad McConi or players like that. I think you got to go
48:45a little bit further down. But like, would you be willing to would you be willing to take a st shot on a guy in a
48:52good offense? Maybe somebody like Quinton Johnston in a first for Devonte Smith and just say, "I'm going to start Quinton Johnston." Because you don't
48:59want to put him on your bench and then go, "Well, I have a couple guys like that and I'm trying to cycle them in and
49:04out." Would you be willing to take somebody like him or Josh DS or Michael Wilson and just say that's the piece I'm
49:11getting back? Is that good enough to do a two for one? Because if you say no, it's probably trying to tear up is the
49:17better bet.
49:18>> Yeah, I think you nailed it. I think it's it's those kind of players tearing up. Maybe you have a a potential running
49:24back that presents themselves as a short-term starter. Can I turn a running back starter and Devonte Smith into a
49:34lockedin wide receiver one um or maybe a little bit younger but same similar outlook um or can I turn it into a
49:42really really good running back? Can I, you know, take take uh you know Devonte Smith and and can I find a way to put
49:50him with another running back and turn that into Devon Chan? Something like crazy like that. So I think that's really interesting. Okay, this is the
49:57last one we're going to talk about, and this is going to be the one that's going to get some people heated. Uh, Drake
50:02May, where you're not the only person I've heard make this argument because we're talking about a quarterback that when I ask pretty much any Dynasty
50:10expert to lay out their top three, top five quarterbacks. It's easily Drake May gets in there. And there's uh some sites, I've seen a site that's ranking
50:20him as the QB1 overall in Dynasty right now. Uh what are your thoughts on Drake May and is this a cash out situation?
50:30Like what is what are what is your your argument here for for selling a player that so many are completely bullish on
50:36and convinced this is the long-term answer for many Dynasty managers at the quarterback position?
50:43>> Yeah, I put him on here. I knew this would generate a little controversy.
50:47Drake May is extremely good. He has shown a pretty elite rushing ceiling, but he's also shown historically elite passing efficiency. I think he was
50:57second in the year, second in the season last year in passing efficiency. It's like when you combine those two, Theo, that is the closest thing you would see
51:06to like the next Lamar Jackson or the next Josh Allen. You know what I mean?
51:10And so, like, I'm not fading that. I'm fading the fact that there are other quarterbacks that I think pose a similar
51:18range of outcomes if you're looking at ceiling. Now, they're not cheap, but I think it comes down to the conversation here is if you're doing a brand new
51:25startup and Drake May will go 101, 102 in the brand new startup, if you're doing Superflex, right? Part of what you're drafting is an exit ramp, a
51:36parachute like Shane likes to call it. I have the ability with the current asset that I'm taking. If it is Drake May,
51:42he's 23 years old. I have the asset that if I wanted to do something different, he's one of the few quarterbacks I could
51:49say, "Hey, I'll sell you Drake May, but you give me Bo Nicks in a first or something like that. It might get done,
51:55but that's part of what you're buying."
51:57So, if you already have Drake May, if you've already realized that and you're not paying for that when you do a
52:03startup, I just think you construct construct differently and you don't have to take the risk. Now, this is not the CJ Strad bet. Remember when CJ Strad was
52:12QB2 or Trevor Lawrence was QB4 because he was young? Like that. This isn't that. This is a guy that is proven and
52:19he's proven in both components, the passing pillar and the rushing pillar.
52:24Now, the only thing I will say about Drake May is I do think his rushing is being a little bit overstated, Theo,
52:29because he's such a good passer. The ultimate plan for Drake May is not to run for 700 yards, 600 yards. I think
52:36that probably levels off somewhere at, you know, 350 to 550, which is fine, but that is not like he's breaking fantasy
52:45with his rushing. Otherwise, you might as well put some Drake May MVP tickets down because like you're saying, "Oh, well, he's going to run for 800, but
52:53then he's also going to throw for 4400."
52:56You know what I mean? Like that's one of the greatest seasons of all time. So, just it feels like something's got to
53:01give. And I actually think it's going to be the rushing because he is an elite passer. When you have an elite passer,
53:08what is the best play the offense can run? That guy passing, right? It's not take off and run. It's not six design
53:15runs per game. Like, I just think they're going to move away from that.
53:19So, is he have a ceiling? Yeah. Could he be QB1? Yeah, but it feels like there's five or six other guys that could do the
53:24same thing, but I'm paying QB1, QB2 prices for Drake May. Can I saw a deal the other day a 27 first and Jaylen Herz
53:31for Drake May and I that's the deal where the Drake May manager is saying I'm going completely scorched earth.
53:38Right? If you're wrong and that's a late first and Jaylen Herz has an awful season. You gave up a cornerstone piece
53:45for two spare parts that you're not exactly sure how they fit in. But I could also see a world where that team
53:51is laughing to the bank if Jaylen Herz is QB4 and Drake May is QB5 and they have an extra first tacked on.
53:59So it feels like it's you're you're cashing in on the parachute price here.
54:04That's why he's a sell for me. But it doesn't mean he's not good.
54:07>> Unbelievable take and and unbelievable like explanation there. Let us know in the comments what you think. But I do think that there's an argument that I
54:15can get an elite quarterback and like you said a potential Jaylen Herz in a first. I think in some leagues I can get
54:20even more than that. Um it's super interesting conversation. This was a lot of fun. Uh make sure you're sticking with us here at Rotoire. Check out
54:29everything we're putting out over at rotoire.com. All my rankings big dynasty rankings update beginning of August over there. You can use the code theo20 get
54:3720% off. Scott, let everybody know like once again where they can find your work.
54:43Yeah, of course. Appreciate you always having me on, Theo. It's good to chop it up with you. It's been a little while,
54:48but congrats on moving over to Roto Wire. Been enjoying the shows thus far.
54:52Uh, you can find me at ddfantasyfoot.com.
54:55Check out our website, check out our Discord community. We're literally talking this kind of stuff all the time, every single day along with the tools
55:03that we're going to be launching on the site very shortly. So, appreciate you having me on, my friend.
55:07>> Yeah, it won't be the last time. Scott, this was absolute fire. Check out everything Scott does. Stick with us here at Rotoire.

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