This Year’s JSN: 10 Historical Fantasy Football Comps (Dave Kluge)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
58 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 11, 2026
Published
Tue, August 11, 2026
28
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownBraelon AllenBrock BowersChase BrownChris RodriguezChristian WatsonD.J. MooreDaniel JonesDrake LondonIsaac GuerendoIsaac NautaJ.J. McCarthyJahmyr GibbsJameson Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection12:29
Dave Kluge projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish as a top-three wide receiver, noting he has achieved this status for three consecutive seasons. Kluge has moved him up to 1.05 in his rankings, ahead of JSN and Christian McCaffrey, citing a safe floor of 17.5 points per game and a ceiling of 23 points per game. Kluge maintains 22% exposure to him in personal roster builds, noting he is only two spots ahead of consensus.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
NegativeUsage30:44
The source warns that Braelon Allen managers should be concerned because Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s presence limits Allen's path to volume. Allen is expected to handle passing-down work, but the loss of goal-line opportunities and the reliance on efficiency rather than volume makes him a risky asset compared to his previous outlook.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout3:55
The source projects Brock Bowers to have a massive 2026 season, comparing his role to 2025 Jackson Smith-Njigba and 2020 Travis Kelce. Bowers is expected to lead all tight ends in target share and air yard share, potentially breaking Trey McBride's single-season catch record with a projected 130 receptions and an average of over 20 points per game. Dave Kluge is aggressively targeting him in drafts with 27% exposure, recommending him as early as the 1.06 pick and consistently hammering him at the 2/3 turn, preferring him over Kenneth Walker in tight-end premium formats.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue23:46
Kluge prefers drafting Chase Brown over Kenneth Walker in the second round, noting that Brown is available at a lower ADP and is a player he frequently clicks ahead of Walker in drafts.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveBreakout20:19
The source compares Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the 2022 version of Jamaal Williams, citing his compact running style and high praise from offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Despite an early camp foot injury, he impressed immediately in pads, with staff calling him a 'glass eater' and 'slobber knocker.' He is projected for goal-line duties with potential for 12-20+ touchdowns, making him a high-upside, cheap draft target. If he secures this role, he could be a league-winning value in best ball formats.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout31:47
The source projects a breakout season for Christian Watson, comparing his trajectory to Terry McLaurin's 2024 season. The source expects Watson to exceed 1,100 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, with his target share increasing to approximately 21% as he becomes a solidified, full-time player in the Packers' offense. Watson has evolved from a deep-threat-only receiver into a more versatile player who runs crossers and comebacks, and he is solidified as a primary starter regardless of formation.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveProjection25:47
Dave Kluge compares DJ Moore to 2015 Brandon Marshall, projecting a major bounce-back season due to a perfect schematic fit with Josh Allen. Despite age and efficiency concerns, Kluge ranks him as WR17 and believes a top-5 or top-10 finish is within his range of outcomes. Kluge highlights his potential for massive spike weeks, noting he is playing with the best quarterback of his career.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeDepth Chart65:35
The source references the team's loss of Daniel Jones as part of the context for why there is internal pressure for the current quarterback to perform and potentially earn a long-term contract.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection9:32
The source admits to being potentially over-invested in Drake London, ranking him as their WR5 and preferring him over Malik Nabers.
Insight pageIsaac Guerendo
PositiveSleeper13:13
Kluge recommends Isaac Guerendo as a target for best ball drafters, expecting him to deliver value at his current cost.
Insight pageIsaac Nauta
PositiveSleeper13:15
Kluge recommends Isaac Nauta as a target for best ball drafters, expecting him to deliver value.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeDepth Chart61:57
The source indicates that JJ McCarthy is currently losing the quarterback competition in Minnesota, noting that Kyler Murray has completely pulled away in the battle for the starting job despite the first-round draft capital invested in McCarthy.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection12:12
The source identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as the ultimate safety valve in the Detroit offense and projects him to finish as the overall RB1. Gibbs is a high-priority draft target for the source, who would take him with the number one overall pick if given the opportunity.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveBreakout12:47
Jameson Williams is projected to have an explosive year with high touchdown production, building on his momentum from the second half of last season. Kluge prefers Williams over DJ Moore due to similar ADPs, identifying him as the superior value proposition in current drafts.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection10:44
The source projects Jared Goff to have a career-best season, exceeding 40 touchdown passes (specifically 42) as the leader of a high-scoring Detroit Lions offense. The source also suggests pairing Goff with Kyler Murray in fantasy drafts to provide a safe floor while maintaining high upside.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeUsage55:29
The source notes that while Jayden Reed was previously a target as a 'post-hype sleeper' following his contract extension, the current Packers' wide receiver rotation is unpredictable. It is now unclear how consistently Reed will be on the field compared to Christian Watson, making his usage outlook less certain than previously anticipated.
Insight pageJordan Addison
NegativeUsage60:24
The source mentions Jordan Addison as a key component of the offensive environment that supports Kyler Murray's potential bounce-back. The source mentions Jordan Addison as a key offensive weapon in the Minnesota offense but notes that he has been dealing with minor injuries.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury57:06
The source expresses concern regarding Josh Jacobs due to a groin injury and lingering off-field uncertainty, advising fantasy managers to be cautious.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveUsage8:11
The source cites the success of Justin Jefferson in his second year under Clint Kubiak as evidence that the offensive scheme is highly effective for primary playmakers, and notes his role as a key component of the offense supporting Kyler Murray.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection21:34
Kenneth Walker III is projected to average 17+ points per game with 300+ total touches and a significant increase in pass-catching volume (55-65 receptions). Kluge views him as a high-upside pick capable of delivering first-round value in the second round, noting he is finally escaping the committee usage seen in Seattle. While Kluge prefers Chase Brown or Brock Bowers in some specific draft ranges, he acknowledges needing to work Walker into more builds.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection58:22
The source argues Kyler Murray is a prime bounceback candidate who can return to form as a plug-and-play, game-breaking QB1. Despite public sentiment souring due to a lack of playoff success and perceived stagnation in Arizona, the source notes Murray is ahead of schedule in the Minnesota offense, learning the playbook quickly, and has pulled away from JJ McCarthy in the quarterback battle. With his rushing upside—highlighted by a 550-yard season two years ago—and a supporting cast including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson, he is a strong value at his QB17 ADP.
Insight pageLuke Musgrave
NegativeInjury56:48
The source notes that Luke Musgrave is currently injured, which forces the Packers to rely heavily on Tucker Kraft at the tight end position.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout8:58
Dave Kluge is extremely high on Malik Nabers, ranking him as his WR8 and comparing him to the 2017 version of Keenan Allen. Nabers shows no lingering effects from his knee cleanup procedure, and with minimal target competition in the Giants' offense, Kluge believes a top-three WR finish is possible. Kluge is drafting him heavily at the 2-3 turn and will continue to do so until his ADP rises above pick 15, preferring him over AJ Brown, Rashee Rice, and Nico Collins.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveSleeper55:29
The source highlights Matthew Golden as a target due to strong training camp reports and internal enthusiasm, noting he is likely to see significant playing time in two-receiver sets.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveProjection12:59
Sam LaPorta is projected to bounce back and finish as a top-five tight end (TE4 or TE5). Kluge emphasizes that being a top-four tight end carries significantly more weight this season than in previous years, increasing his overall value.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
NegativeUsage60:24
The source mentions T.J. Hockenson as a key component of the offensive environment that supports Kyler Murray's potential bounce-back.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveProjection4:09
The source uses 2020 Travis Kelce as the historical gold standard for tight end production, noting he was the last to average over 20 PPR points per game, fueled by 553 yards after catch and double-digit touchdowns.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveInjury56:43
Packers tight end Tucker Kraft is expected to be back for Week 1 with no limitations after returning from the PUP list. He is identified as the primary tight end option while Luke Musgrave is injured, making him a key target for fantasy managers.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Before we get started, let me tell you how Rotoire fantasy football leveled up for 2026. I'm Theo Griminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire.
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1:17to all of my rankings, all of my articles, and every amazing tool we have on the site. Let's go crush some
1:23leagues.
1:26Identifying this year's version of Jackson, Smith, and Jigba, and much, much more. Looking to fantasy football's past to help identify players who are
1:35going to crush in 2026. I'm Theo Griminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire. Joined today by repeat guest Dave Kugi of Football Guys. Dave
1:44is always standing on business when he comes on my shows. And Dave, you're you're not afraid to go into like the
1:50bold predictions or the historical comps. We're going to make some like very strong statements today about some players that we think can smash this
1:57year that line up with guys that we've seen in recent memory. Dave, you also challenged me here where I was like,
2:04"Okay, we're going to look at like all these guys from 2025 and try to find like like guys in 2026." But you're
2:10going all the way back to like 2017 on some of yours. So, I also broke out the history books and I'm ready to compete.
2:16I'm not gonna let Dave like history book mog me here. [laughter] We're ready to go here. And we're gonna go right off
2:21the top. Okay, this one, if you're listening to any of my shows all offseason long, you already know what it is. This year's version of Jackson Smith
2:28and Jigba. Looking for 2025 Jackson Smith and Jigba in 2026. And it's not going to be a wide receiver. It's going
2:35to be, you guessed it, a tight end in Brock Bowers. And it all lines up perfectly. JSN last year was 23 years
2:42old in a Clint Kubak offense. This year, Brock Bowers is 23 years old in a Clint Kubak offense. We're also going to look
2:49even further to the past and look at 2020 Travis Kelce. Why are we looking at Travis Kelce in 2020? Cuz Travis Kelce
2:56was the last tight end averaged 20 points per game or more in PPR scoring.
3:01It was like 20.9 that year. And I think Bowowers is lining up to do something very, very similar. Uh, we look at what
3:08Kelsey was able to do that season and it was 553 yak yards on top of double-digit touchdowns. Target-wise was in the 140s.
3:19So very, very doable. Touchdowns was right around 10. 553 yak yards. When we look at Bowowers in 2024, his last fully
3:28healthy season, he had 596. So I think Bowowers is going to go absolutely nuts when it comes to yak production this
3:35year. I think they're going to get the ball in his hands about as much as humanly possible. And we look at what
3:40JSN had last year in Clint Kubak. A 35% target share. He was second overall in airard share and second in in first read
3:49rate. Bowowers, I think, is capable of leading all tight ends in airard share.
3:54I think he's going to lead all tight ends in target share. And he'll be maybe tops in the NFL in first read rate. I
4:02think we're also looking at a a chance that Brock Bowers breaks Trey McBride's record from last year and sets the single season catch record at the tight
4:11end position. I think this is a trend where we saw it two years ago where we had Bowers and we had uh McBride both
4:20like towards the very top of catches in NFL history at the tight end position.
4:24Before that, we had like the Evan Ingram season a couple years before where guys were accumulating these very high catch totals. I think we see it again this
4:31year. I think Bowowers goes nuts. I think he has 130 catches this year. Um, and I think he breaks Trey McBride's
4:38record. Goes absolutely bonkers.
4:39Averages north of 20 points per game.
4:41So, you get a little 2025 JSN and a little 2020 Travis Kelce all mixed in.
4:46Just go draft Brock Bowers. What do you say, Dave Kugy?
4:49>> And and I'd say you can go back even further in Clint Kubak's history and you can look at what he did with a year two
4:54Justin Jefferson, what he did with Brandon Aayuk in San Francisco when he had his best season ever. So last year, you know, I I I think I'm a pretty
5:02humble guy for the most part, Theo, but like I got to pat myself on the back.
5:05Nobody in the industry at JSN ranked higher than I did last year. Like you could see that on Fantasy Pros in the
5:10expert consensus ranking. I had him in over 35% of the drafts that I did last year. And it was because of this Clink
5:16Kubak offense. Like the whole reason this offense works like every single person's role is basically to get one guy loose deep downfield where he can
5:25catch the ball in space to create after the catch. So, I'm completely with you on Brock Bowers right now. I know we're
5:30supposed to like, you know, minimize our exposure to the top guys in drafts and not take any stances too aggressively.
5:36I'm at 27% Brock Bowers against all across all of my drafts. Like, I've just been reaching for this guy at the one
5:42two turn without thinking twice. I am saying that like in drafts, if you want to take him as early as 106, I don't
5:48think that's crazy. Like, I think that he has that type of upside. you start talking about valuebased drafting and the advantage you can get from a tight
5:55end like this if he breaks fantasy the way that we expect him to. I'm completely with you on Brock Bowers.
6:00This is a guy that I'm just aggressively aggressively targeting in all my drafts this year. Yeah, I have him top 10 in my
6:07PPR rankings and you don't need to take him there. He's a second round value for you in a lot of formats. I know you're
6:13drafting a ton of NFC. I think NFC is a great target there. Underdog DraftKings.
6:18Uh, and then in FFPC tight end premium, he's usually going around like the the 105. I think that's fine. You could even
6:25make a case to to put him in inside Well, I mean, maybe after today's show, you don't want to go too much higher
6:30because Dave might have a prediction for a guy who's also going inside of the top five, but let's get you started. I mean,
6:36you you dropped some really good ones, but let's go with your Malik Neighbors one to start out.
6:41>> Yeah, I've got Malik Neighbors is going to be the 2017 version of Keenan Allen.
6:45And a lot of people might be going, "What?" Well, Keenan Allen tore his ACL in 2016, and a lot of people saw that
6:51like that was the second straight year that he had had with injuries. There were some concerns about his durability, and a lot of people found reasons to
6:57fade Keenan Allen going into that 2027 season. What did he do? He came out as the wide receiver three overall in
7:04scoring that year. Just bounced back like he never missed a beat. And it seems like that's what we're getting from Malik Neighbors. Now, you see these
7:10clips from camp. He is cutting. He's decelerating. He's accelerating. He's doing everything that we want to see.
7:15And I know that there were some concerns earlier in the offseason because there was that celebrity softball game where he was kind of limping to first base.
7:22But if you look at the timeline, I think a lot of people thought that that limping was from the surgery that he had
7:27in the winter when the reality is that celebrity softball game two weeks after the cleanup cleanup procedure on his knee. So I think he was still feeling a
7:33little bit uh you know tight from that cleanup procedure, but they said that that was going to have him on track and
7:39ahead of schedule. Now it seems like he's going to be ready to go as early as week one. When I look at this Giants
7:44offense, there's nobody else there catching passes. Like, it is Malik Neighbors and then just a bunch of guys.
7:50So, we've seen this guy already a 33% target share his rookie season. Now, the unquestioned guy at top this pecking order again in what we expect to be a
7:58better offense with Harbaugh there. This is a guy that I think everybody is just sleeping on right now. He's still falling into round three of drafts and
8:04if you get a top three outcome for Malik Neighbors would not shock me one bit.
8:10Where do you think that Malik Neighbors is going to end up by the time we draft let's say the end of August um in you
8:16name the format?
8:17>> Yeah, I I mean I think he's probably going to creep up into the top of round two and I talked about that a couple of
8:22weeks ago once we started getting these good clips of him coming out of camp.
8:25I'd be surprised if I if he gets higher than 15. I don't think a lot of people are going to be able to move him ahead
8:30of AJ Brown. We've got that cluster of running backs there. I'm definitely not taking him ahead of Brock Bowers. So right now where he's falling at the 23
8:38turn, I am just hammering him. But I do think that he's going to start to creep up a little bit more and more. I said
8:42I'm going to chase him up until about spot 15. If he gets above 15, that's probably when I have to start pumping
8:47the brakes, but I will keep drafting him until then.
8:51I love it. And I love the Keenan Allen call out that I I remember that that season what a value he was. Um and
8:58neighbors, we've already seen like what an incredible season he had as a rookie.
9:02undeniable talent and his target composi competition at the wide receiver position is like Darius Sllayton, Malachi Fields, it's it's very very low.
9:11And Isaiah likely, you know, is a player that I've talked up, but the idea that Isaiah likely is going to prevent Malik
9:18Neighbors from just going nuts again is a really really really like very very small bet to make. I think that Neighbors could go absolutely bonkers
9:25here. Where do in your rankings? Are you putting him ahead of like Drake London, AJ Brown in your own personal rankings?
9:32We talked about the ADP market, but your own conviction. So, I love Drake London right now. I mean, I'm probably over my
9:38skis on my Drake London ranking. I've got him as my wide receiver five. So, I can't get him ahead of uh Drake London,
9:43but right now I've got the League Neighbors as my wide receiver eight. So, I prefer Drake London, CD Lamb, Justin Jefferson, JSN, Amaran St. Brown, Jamar
9:50Chase, Puknua, but I'm taking Neighbors ahead of AJ Brown, which I know is spicy. I know there's a lot of AJ Brown
9:56touts out there, but I'm taking Malik Neighbors ahead of AJ Brown, ahead of Rashi Rice, ahead of Nico Collins. I pretty aggressive in my rankings.
10:04No, I love it. I absolutely love it. And I'm going to go with this. We're going to go like a little bit like less back
10:09in time than like my 2020 Travis Kelce call out with this one. We're going to keep it super simple. Last year, Matthew
10:15Stafford had this incredible season. He had 46 touchdown passes, ended up with like 52 by the time he was done at the
10:22NFL playoffs. He had a 7.7% touchdown rate was just absolutely ridiculous.
10:29Provided an incredible value from his ADP cost where Stafford was drafted as a call him a a a high to midlevel QB2 and
10:39delivered with this just unbelievable season where he gave you like top five numbers at the quarterback position.
10:44This year's version of 2025 Matthew Stafford is Jared Goff. I think Jared Goff is going to have a personal best in
10:52terms of touchdown passes this year. And it's really been like a slow drip here where 34 touchdown passes for Matthew Stafford last year. He had 37 in 2024
11:03and 30 in 2023. So he's just been redhot there. And that's multiple play callers.
11:08You go back to the Ben Johnson years up to this past year where Dan Campbell eventually took over in the second half
11:14of the year. You've got Drew Petting where people are like very lukewarm to Drew Petting. Obviously, guy comes from Arizona, but I'm going to take this a
11:21step further. So, Jared Goff is going to go north of 40 touchdown passes this year. Let's call it 42 touchdown passes
11:28this year for Jared Goff. The Detroit Lions are going to average 35 points per game, which is even higher than in any
11:36single season under Ben Johnson. They're going to, this is going to make the 17th highest all-time scoring in NFL history in terms of points per game. Uh, which
11:45is going to best the Lions under Johnson where where they were like 33 and a half points per game. I think the Lions are
11:51going to go nuts. And I think that you're going to see explosive play after explosive play after explosive play.
11:57Moving off of David Montgomery, the rational coaching is to get the ball out of Jared Goff's hands. The explosive plays downfield. You've got unbelievable
12:07talent around him and you've got the ultimate safety valve in Jamir Gibbs who is fantastic as a pass catcher out of
12:13the backfield. And I'll say that all Detroit Lions this year, if you're OTC and you're like, who should I take? Just
12:20lean into the Detroit offense. All of these guys are going to break ADP. Jamir Gibbs, you take him number one. He
12:27finishes RB1 overall. Ammon Ross St.
12:29Brown is going to finish as a top three scorer at the wide receiver position.
12:33He's going to challenge those two guys at the very top. I think we're looking at potentially career numbers for Aman Raw. I think it's going to come down to
12:41exceeding what he did last year. Even Aman Raw is going to smash. Take him in the first round. If you're stuck OTC at
12:47like the 109, go ahead and take Aman Ross St. Brown. Jameson Williams is going to deliver at ADP. He's going to
12:52have an explosive year. Catch a ton of touchdowns. All those all the the goodwill we saw with Jameson Williams the second half of the year continues
12:59this year. and Sam Laaporta finishes as the tight end five overall, maybe the tight end four, but this year that matters a lot more because we're going
13:07to talk about a couple of other tight ends today. This year being tight end four is like being the tight end three,
13:13the tight end two in previous seasons.
13:15Leaport is going to bounce back. Isaac Tesla is also going to deliver. If you're a baseball drafter, go ahead and get some Isaac Tesla. Having Isaiah
13:22Pacheco instead of David Montgomery changes things fundamentally. This is going to be the most explosive offense.
13:27This is going to be the highest scoring offense. And Jared Goff, if you want to wait on quarterback, combine whatever like new hotness you want to combine
13:35with Jared Goff. That's your two quarterback build. Dave Kluggy. Yeah, we're we're agreeing too much on this show. You know, I talk about like
13:42there's some offenses where I just say like I'm going to draft everybody here.
13:46I'm not even going to like participate in the this player or this player discourse. The Chargers are one of those offenses and we've talked about them a
13:53bunch this offseason, but the Lions are another one. You know, I track all of my exposure from these best ball drafts
13:58that I'm doing right now. I am 15% Jared Goff, 18% Sam Leaporta, 22% Aman Ross St. Brown, and 23% Jameson Williams.
14:06Like, this is a team that I am just clicking almost every single time I see them on the board. The only reason I
14:12don't have more Jir Gibbs is because I haven't pulled the number one pick like as much as I want to, but like I'm
14:18taking him every time I have that opportunity as well. I think this is just such a good offense. And yeah, I
14:23think you know, you can look at all the different pieces, whether it's Amanra or Jameson or Leaporta or Tesla, but Jared
14:29Goff, the guy facilitating this offense, is going to be the guy who's probably the best value here. So, you even talked
14:35about Amanra St. Brown taking him as low as 109. I've moved him up to 105 in my ranking. So, I'm taking him ahead of
14:41JSN. I'm taking ahead of Christian McCaffrey. This is a guy who's been a top three wide receiver for three straight seasons. I don't know why he's
14:49starting to fall into the late first round right now, but I'm taking him fifth overall without even thinking twice at this point.
14:56>> I have him sixth in my PPR rankings you can find over at Rotoire. You can use the code Theo20, get 20% off. So, we're
15:02we're like right in line. Uh, and I again, I think the reason with Aman Raw that he kind of falls is cuz he's like
15:08the boring guy in the first round. I I drafted him with Scott Barrett the other night. They they invited me over back to
15:14the the Fantasy Point streets and we drafted a main event. That was a lot of fun. But Scott and I were like, we took
15:18Aman Ross Stain Brown in the first round. It's like >> nobody's going to stand up and start clapping when you take Aman Ross Stain
15:24Brown. There's like all the the the running backs behind him that people get hyped for. Obviously Brock Bowers, people are like, "Oh my god, you drafted
15:30Brock Bowers." Me, I mean, personally, I'm say I'm the one saying it, but Aman Raw is like rolls out of bed and his
15:37floor is probably like 17 and a half points per game this year and his ceiling might be like 20 23 points per
15:43game this year. So, he's just so so safe and he's just locked in. Go draft some Lions. If you take away anything from
15:49this show, just go ahead and draft some Detroit Lions. Dave, you're putting out a ton of content over at Football Guys.
15:55What is What is like your number one thing in August you want people to check out?
15:59>> Training camp reports. We put so much time into these. Um, I'm not doing them all myself, but I do edit them all. So,
16:05we've got a team of about 15 staffers that are going through meticulously reading and listening to all the training camp reports that they can get.
16:12We get about 1500 words per team and then we distill that down into re easy to read bullet points. But this is what
16:18I'm spending my Sundays doing from sun up till sun down just editing all of these training camp reports. But it is
16:23some of the most valuable information that you can get this time of year.
16:26Things are constantly changing. Players are getting hurt. Depth charts are moving around. So we've got these training camp reports that we do. Then
16:31Jeff Bell and I on Tuesday night we go through all those bullet points and we do a two to three hour podcast breaking
16:37down what all of that means as well. So, I mean, yeah, there there there's rankings and all sorts of stuff that
16:42we're doing, but I think right now having your ear to what's going on in training camp is where you can get the
16:48biggest edge, and that's where I'm putting most of my focus right now.
16:51Okay. Well, there we go. Go check out Dave. And then Dave, you know, one team that we're paying attention to, nice
16:56professional segue by Dave as well. One team we're paying attention to a lot in training camp and I'm sure you are over
17:02at football guys and I know we are at over at Rotoire is the Jacksonville Jaguars because we've got Trevor Lawrence, we've got the we've got Brian
17:10Thomas Jr., we've got Parker Washington, some people like Brenton Strange and then there is the backfield and you've got a historical comparison for a
17:19Jacksonville running back and I got all excited about this one but it's not the running back you that I probably would
17:24have liked to hear you say something nice about. It's the other one. Yeah, I've got Chris Rodriguez Jr. being the 2022 version of Jamal Williams. I mean,
17:33this guy is just such a good compact running back. And we have heard Liam Cohen has just been singing his praises.
17:40The day that he signed him, he talked about how excited he was to have him and, you know, reunite with him from his
17:45time in Kentucky. And we've got quotes from Liam Cohen back to when he had to go back to Kentucky without Chris
17:50Rodriguez saying how hard it was going to be coaching an offense without Chris Rodriguez there knowing that he can give him the ball and get four yards. Now, in
17:57training camp, we know Chris Rodriguez missed the first little bit of time because he had to deal with this foot injury that he was coming back from, but
18:03they said as soon as pads came on, he just blew everybody away. They started throwing around terms I hadn't even heard before. Liam Cohen called him a
18:10glass eater. There was a Jacksonville beat reporter that called him a slobber knocker. Like, they are just throwing around some wild terms right now.
18:17Talking about Chris Rodriguez Jr. And last year, this guy was top five in success rate, top five in yards after contact per attempt, top five in broken
18:26tackle rate. That's exactly who he is.
18:28Like, he doesn't have the breakaway speed. He's not a guy who's going to score from 80 yards out, but he's going
18:32to keep an offense on schedule. He's going to mitigate losses and more than anything, he's going to score touchdowns. So when I look at this
18:38backfield right now, I wrote an article back in March, the day that Chris Rodriguez signed there, and I said Bashalt Toot manager should not be happy
18:45about this because this pushes him into a role where he can't get there on volume. He's going to have to get there
18:50on efficiency because I think Chris Rodriguez is going to get the goal line work, which we're already hearing is happening in training camp. Laquin Allen
18:56is going to get a lot of the passing down work and Bashalt Toutin very efficient player and he could score on
19:01breakaway runs but if he's not getting the passing down work and he's not getting the goal line work I think Chris
19:05Rodriguez is a guy who is you know the cheap entry point into this backfield that can get you 12 15 20 plus
19:13touchdowns in this offense. We know there are a lot of scoring opportunities for running backs in this offense last year. I think the majority of those go
19:19to Chris Rodriguez Jr. this year. So you can get him for so cheap in your drafts right now. might be a little tough in
19:25managed leagues. You don't know when to start him if he's going to be touchdown dependent, but one of the easiest clicks
19:29you could make right now, especially in baseball.
19:32I I hate this prediction and I also like it a lot because of how well thought out it is. You know, you mentioned Jamal
19:39Williams in 2022 with 17 touchdowns that year.
19:44>> His ADP was similar to Chris Rodriguez is right now. So Rodriguez, like if you look at NFC, FFPC, Rodriguez in what,
19:52like that 10th, 11th round range, we're seeing that consistently in these drafts. I did an FFPC uh targets list by round for main events
20:02and for big gorilla contests, like the $2,000 contest, the $350 contest. I had Bachel Tutin as a priority or he was a
20:10target of mine um under the priority target list, but I also made Chris Rodriguez a target rounds later. I think I'm open-minded to drafting both. And I
20:19think this is like the doom and gloom scenario that you're presenting here where Toutton can still kind of provide a little bit of utility with his pass
20:27catching work and his explosive runs, but would get completely nuked in this situation if Rodriguez had that fantastic year. And people are going to
20:34laugh this one off, Dave, but >> 20 2016 Learrett Blunt 18 rushing touchdowns drafted as like the number two running back in New England that
20:44year. 2023 Raheem Moert had 18 touchdowns for the Miami Dolphins was drafted in like the double- digit rounds. That was also the Devon Han
20:54breakout season. Both of those guys averaged a ton of points per game. And then like you said, Jamal Williams in 2022. So that's three times in the last
21:0210 years that a running back has just sort of come out of nowhere and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns that year. So
21:09never say never in this one. We do believe in Liam Cohen. It's a sickening one for those of us holding Bashial
21:14Totin bags, but if you're holding those Chris Rodriguez ones in baseball, that could be like an absolute gamecher if he delivers on even 10 rushing touchdowns
21:23for Rodriguez would be a really nice return. Uh, so I'm a little grossed out by now, but I'm going to attempt to get
21:28through it. I'm going to go a little bit uh with a running back that people actually like. Um, and I'll go with I'll
21:34go with I'll go with Kenneth Walker. And we go with this is an easy one for me.
21:38And I' I've made this comp on a couple of other shows, but Kenneth Walker in 2026 is the well, he's the 2026 version of
21:472024 Josh Jacobs/2024 Derrick Henry. I don't think he gets to the Derrick Henry level in terms of points per game. That's a really, really
21:55tall ask. Henry was nearly a league winner that year. Saquon Barkley also that year. All those free agent running backs smashed that year. But here,
22:03Kenneth Walker is going to average 17 plus points per game. He will not have as many rush attempts as Josh Jacobs
22:10will did that season. Probably not as many uh touchdowns as well. Jacobs had like 16 touchdowns that year, but Kenneth Walker will have 55 to 65
22:18catches this year. He's going to smash all of his previous pass catching totals. He's going to get to double digit touchdowns this year and he's
22:26going to get to 300 plus touches.
22:28Kenneth Walker is going to average 17 plus points per game this year. And to put it in perspective, that would have
22:35been the running back seven overall in 2025. So, a little bit ahead of ADP, but also last year was sort of a a banner
22:43year for running back production. 17 plus points per game could be a top five scorer this year if things swing a
22:50little bit slightly away from like a number of running backs hitting 20 points per game. Kenneth Walker is the next free agent running back to be very
22:58successful in his first season. Uh, and he's going to absolutely crush this year. He's a fine value, especially when you get to the second round. Especially
23:05when you get to this to the second half of the second round when you can can combine Kenneth Walker with like
23:11potentially a Puka Nakua or in Titan Premium with a Brock Bowers. Really, really a strong pick this year. Yeah, I like that this is a thoughtful one
23:18because I think so many people are just so quick to say like, "Oh, this is Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia." And I
23:23don't think the ceiling is that high.
23:25Yeah. Like what he did like that was one of the best seasons we've seen in NFL history. Like it's going to be really
23:29tough for him to accomplish that. But I think the Josh Jacobs comp is much more thoughtful because we did see Josh
23:36Jacobs like you know that that that's kind of what we could expect here. I will say with Walker and you and I have
23:40talked about Walker a handful of times this offseason. A player that I just struggle to draft a little bit like I
23:46prefer Jane uh Chase Brown in that range. I prefer some of the wide receivers in that range if Brock Bowers is still on the board. So I haven't been
23:51drafting quite as much Kenneth Walker as I want to. and not having a lot of Kenneth Walker, knowing the big playoff
23:58side, knowing the Chief's offense, it is a terrifying spot to be in. But I just find myself preferring a lot of the wide
24:04receivers and Brock Bowers in that range over Kenneth Walker. And if I am looking for a running back, Chase Brown, who's a
24:09little bit below in ADP, is usually a guy that I end up clicking ahead of Walker. So, I need to start working him
24:14into some more builds. It's just for whatever reason, like that cluster of running backs, I just find myself overlooking a lot this off seasonason.
24:23Yeah, it's it's a really I mean that that whole tier of running backs, there's like multiple guys in that tier that could deliver in a major way.
24:31Walker, it feels like a little bit of unknown upside with how he can perform under Andy Reid on this team that just
24:38paid him the bag. The first year we're seeing Kenneth Walker sort of escaping the running back by committee usage that we've seen in Seattle. There's just a
24:46lot to like there. If you want to go like Chase Brown or Achan or Omarian Hampton in that range, I'm sure there's
24:52going to be somebody who could tell you that that's the way to go. But I think Walker, I would call him
24:57safe is not necessarily the right word for a player that's missed time in multiple seasons. But it feels like a high upside pick that if he holds up is
25:06going to deliver at his cost and pro potentially give you first round value in the second round.
25:11>> Yeah, absolutely. I can see that. And you know, when you when you're diverge a little bit from consensus, like I said, I have a 22% Aman Ross St.
25:19Brown and I'm only two spots ahead of consensus on him. And then being two spots below consensus on Kenneth Walker means that I get him in almost no draft.
25:26So that's just kind of the game that we play like if you're going to diverge from consensus at all early in the top
25:32of drafts. That's going to mean that you either have a lot of or almost no of a of a certain player. And just, you know,
25:38it's not that I have a hard hard fade on Kenneth Walker. I think he's a fine player, but just being that couple spots
25:43below consensus means that I don't get him as much as I wish I could.
25:47>> So, you've been Mr. DJ Moore all off season. And I'll say like had to move him up a little bit, Dave. Like I I was
25:53like we we've gotten into it a couple times. Not like not like me hating on DJ Moore, but me saying like I like these
25:59other guys in the other range. But hey, the the drum beats out of Buffalo camp are tremendous when it comes to the
26:04connection that he's displaying with Josh Allen. A lot of the Beat reporters are very enthusiastic about how DJ Moore could do this year in this offense.
26:13Where are you at? What's your historical comparison here for DJ Moore?
26:17>> Well, first of all, I want to say with DJ Moore, like I I have to really kind of like move away from how I analyze
26:24football with DJ Moore because like I want to be a numbers first guy and when I see a 29-year-old guy who has gone
26:29down in every metric that I care about for three straight seasons, that is not a guy I want to bet on. But I just kind
26:35of have to like zoom out and dumb it down sometimes and be like DJ Moore is good, the Buffalo offense is good, Josh
26:41Allen is good. Like this can all work out together. So my version here is that I say DJ Moore is going to be 2015
26:48Brandon Marshall. And this is another one where I think people might be like on their phone right now pulling up Statad being like 2015 Brandon Marshall.
26:53What did he do that year? Well, that was after a lengthy career in Chicago where his production was starting to go down a
27:00little bit. And then he moved from Chicago to New York and immediately put up 1500 yards and 14 touchdowns. One of
27:06the best seasons of his career. And it was that change of scenery. It was playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who
27:12just kind of yolo ball, just like force-fed him the ball whenever he could. And similar play styles like Brennan Marshall isn't a timing based,
27:19detailoriented receiver. He was a guy who's just going to go out, get open, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to force the ball to him. I think that's exactly
27:26what's going to happen here in Buffalo.
27:27DJ Moore does a lot of freelancing on his routes, finding the soft spot in between defenders, and Josh Allen has that insane arm strength where he can
27:35fit a ball into any window. So, I think over the last couple of years, it was just a bad schematic fit. We saw DJ
27:41Moore with Caleb Williams, they never really got on the same page. Then Ben Johnson comes in. DJ Moore isn't this detail- oriented receiver that he wants
27:48and it has made for some frustrating production from DJ Moore over the last couple years, but I think now with Josh
27:54Allen in Buffalo, this is just a perfect schematic pairing here. So, I think DJ Moore, even though he's getting up there
28:00in age, and a lot of people can point to the down ticks in efficiency. I think he bounces back in a major way this year.
28:06I've got him ranked as my wide receiver 17, but if he finished top five, top 10, I don't think it's crazy to think that's
28:13within his range of outcomes, just like it was for Stefon Diggs when he was in Buffalo.
28:17>> Yeah. And we think about DJ Moore and how he got there as a top six scorer in 2023.
28:23>> It was spike weeks. And I think the one thing about the the Buffalo offense is I think we can all agree that even if you
28:29think DJ Moore maybe you're you're maybe you're opposite of Dave here, I think that that saying that DJ Moore could have like five just ridiculous games
28:39with with Josh Allen behind center. Um you know, you talk about quality of quarterback play. This is the best quarterback play DJ Moore's ever had.
28:48I'm a huge Caleb Williams guy. I know you are as well, but this is the best quarterback DJ Moore has ever played
28:53with. This is the the best wide receiver that Josh Allen has had since Stfon Diggs. And now you've got the drum beats
29:00in camp. So I moved him up a little bit.
29:03I still don't have him where Dave Kluggy has him, but I'm I'm getting a little bit higher on DJ Moore. Still my
29:09exposure is in baseball. I'm not I'm not like But hey, one of these one of these uh one of these reddraft leagues in FFPC
29:16or NFC, I'm going to I'm going to hit that DJ Moore button and I'm going to in the back of my head Dave Cluggy. Dave
29:20Kug just in case. And and the thing the reason I don't have more in baseball is because he and Jameson Williams have
29:27very similar ADBs and I do prefer Jameson Williams. That's the only reason I don't have a lot more DJ Moore. But
29:33you talk about the Spike Weeks, dude. He he plays in a division now with the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. Maybe
29:39the two worst secondaries in football.
29:41He might put up 120 points just in those four games alone this year. There you go. There you go. DJ Moore, just
29:48continue listening to Dave Kluggy. If you're a DJ Moore bull, listen to Dave Clooney's quads. You're going to you're going to get you're going to get really
29:54excited about your conviction cuz Dave is painting a picture here that DJ Moore goes nuts and I love it. I'll stay at
29:59the wide receiver position. And this one actually is blowing my mind a little bit because it's not only a historical comparison, but it's also an ADP
30:09historical comparison. They're lining up very, very similarly. Christian Watson 2026 Christian Watson is going to deliver a 2024 Terry McLaren like
30:20season. We go back to Terry McLaren in 2024 year one with Jaden Daniels 82 catches about,00 receiving yards but it
30:29was 13 touchdown catches. I think Christian Watson has a chance to exceed the 1100 receiving yards and I think that the 13 touchdown catches are very
30:40very much in play. We look at at Terry McLaren that year, he was the wide receiver 30 in ADP. He was going 59th
30:49overall in main events in August according to Fantasy Mojo. Right now, Christian Watson's going 54th overall and he's the wide receiver 25. Just kind
30:58of shows you the the tides turning with running backs and why 25 and 30. What?
31:02That's a whole another conversation. But when we look at just Christian Watson, how good he's been on certain metrics, the explosiveness, the yards per route
31:12run, those sort of uh metrics, I think he's there. But what's interesting is he's been like an 18.5% target share guy. I think this year we
31:22get north of 20%. And we have a careerhigh in several metrics, but I think target share being the number one there where I think Christian Watson,
31:32you're going to see a little bit more easy button targets. Let's call it like close to a 21% target share. I think
31:38Christian Watson delivers in a major way. Terry McLaren finished as a wide receiver one that season. I think Watson has the ability to do that. We'll call
31:47him a top 15 scorer. uh borderline wide receiver one, but the two players are sort of lining up very very similarly
31:54for me. Your thoughts?
31:56>> Yeah, you know, I just want to be in on this Packers offense. I think that for the longest time we faded these wide
32:01receivers in Green Bay because they were going like five receivers deep and it was this constant frustrating rotation, but Romeo Dubs getting traded away,
32:08Octavian Wix walking in free agency.
32:11They've now condensed this down. Uh Tucker Craft, first of all, he's going to be back week one. like all indications are that he's going to be
32:16back to to like with no limitations week one. So, we have to factor him in as well, but to me like Watson is 100% the
32:24guy that isn't coming off the field. And I think we've seen kind of back and forth where it's either Watson and Reed
32:30or Watson and Golden. Now, a couple of months ago, I was aggressively drafting Jaden Reed because I thought it was going to be Watson and Reed on the field
32:37all the time, but now we are seeing these rotations all over the place. It seems like Watson is the one guy who is
32:41really solidified in whether they're going one wide receiver, three wide receivers, two tight ends, like any formation that's out there, Watson is
32:49going to be involved. And we saw a huge change in how he played last year. First couple of years of his career, he was
32:53just basically running nine routes and nothing else. And then last year, we saw him really expand that route tree, started hitting those crosses across the
33:00middle of the field, running some comeback routes as well. So, we've seen him develop into a much different receiver than he was when he came into
33:07the league. That's just the Packers way.
33:09Like that's what the Packers do. Like if you look R like everybody, Devonte Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, these guys all got off to slow starts. They
33:17bring these talented receivers in. They slowly develop them over a few years and then they unleash them. And I think we
33:23saw Watson get unleashed last year, but there's still meat on the bone for him to have an even more productive season.
33:29>> Yeah. And if you like disagree with with my enthusiasm of Watson, then you should be targeting Jaden Reed or Matthew
33:36Golden cuz I think there's going to be a wide receiver that delivers in Green Bay. So, if Watson's a little too
33:41expensive for you, take a bet on the post hype sleeper year for Jaden Reed, a player who also got a contract extension
33:48from Green Bay, or Matthew Golden, where the drum beats are actually very strong for Golden, uh, especially early in training camp as a guy that there's a
33:57lot of enthusiasm with internally on the team and with the Beat reporters, and he's probably going to be on the field a
34:03lot in those two wide receiver sets. One other thing to keep an eye on, Tucker Craft obviously coming off of the pup.
34:08There's positivity there, but the tight end depth, Luke Musgrave is injured.
34:13It's Tucker Craft or bust. So, I think there's some contingent upside for all of these Green Bay wide receivers if Craft were to have a reagravation. And
34:20also, Dave, if one of these three wide receivers misses time, then the other two I think would cook. So, uh, and then
34:26you've also got the whole Josh Jacobs dealing with the groin injury thing here. And then the whole little constant reminder that off the- field incident
34:34for Josh Jacobs where we probably are good for this year, but never say never in the NFL when news can drop at any
34:41second. So, get yourself some Green Bay receivers there. Um, let's keep this one going. You have a quarterback prediction. This is our first
34:49quarterback one set. Well, I did the This is This is the first Yeah, Jared Goss. second quarterback, but we should have made him have them go back to back,
34:55but but here we are. We have three more to go. This one's a little spicy. And and this one is the first. Um this
35:02player is going to be a version of a previous version of themselves. I've got Kyler Murray uh returning to form as the
35:102020 Kyler Murray that we all grew to love. And I don't think that it's really that spicy. I know a lot of people are
35:17going to take it that way. But if you look like Kyler Murray, you know, comes in rookie of the year. We know
35:21immediately in 2019 this guy's awesome.
35:242020 he builds off of that a little bit, wins a Pro Bowl, you know, or goes to the Pro Bowl, looks a little bit better.
35:29And then in 2021, numbers weren't all that different. Like if you look through his first three years in the league, he
35:35was between 3722 and 3971 yards in each of those first three seasons. Had between 20 and 26 touchdowns in each of
35:43those first three seasons. The numbers were very, very, very sticky. And then he comes out in 2022, tears his ACL, comes back in 2023, doesn't look like
35:54his former self. And then in 2024 when he returns and starts a full season, his numbers were almost identical to what
36:00they were through his first three seasons in the league. He had 3851 uh passing yards and 21 touchdowns. And then last year dealt with that foot
36:08sprain, ends up getting this kind of soft benching that turned into a hard benching. And now people are just completely off on Kyler Murray. But this
36:16guy is fourth in quarterback points per game in fantasy since coming into the league in 2019. He's seventh in rushing yards over that time as well. This guy
36:24has been a lot steadier than I think people realize. And now we look at him with Kevin O'Connell, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hawinson,
36:32and the running game that they had there in Minnesota. He is primed for a bounceback. And he doesn't need any sort
36:38of miraculous comeback. He just needs to look like the player that he was in 2024. But for whatever reason, people have just soured on Kyler Murray. My
36:46thought here is that there was hope that Kyler Murray would take this huge step forward, and he never really did. Like
36:52the player he was in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, it was all kind of the same player. So, I think that's why he
37:00overstayed his welcome in Arizona. You know, there was the lack of playoff success. They only had one playoff appearance, which he lost. He never
37:06really took that huge step forward, and I think that's why they moved on. But this is still the same guy that we saw
37:12years ago who was scoring fantasy points at will. Now you put him in this offense where KOC is already talking about how
37:17he's ahead of schedule that mentally he's learning the playbook. Seems like he has completely pulled away from JJ McCarthy in this quarterback battle. I
37:24think we see Kyler Murray return to form as just the plug-andplay game-breaking QB1 that he was early in his career.
37:32>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean, we've talked about this and the positivity with Kyler Murray and and the thing is, Dave, >> I I know what happens whenever you say
37:38something positive about Kyler Murray is I'll have a bunch of Oh, people hate it.
37:43People hate it. I had Dwayne McFarland on the other day. That was a really great show. And Kyler Murray is one of
37:49Dwayne's flag plants. So, he talks very similarly to to you when he says, you know, how high a ceiling he has in the
37:56Kevin Oonnell offense. Murray, you're also getting cheap. So, if you don't believe in Kyler Murray here, you can combine him with Jared Goff and you
38:06could draft both of those guys and get sort of the safety of Jared Goff with, you know, the potential upside. But the
38:12Kevin Oonnell has been a quarterback whisperer and I think you're getting this secondary window where they're really making Kyler Murray earn this
38:19job. And I think a lot of people are saying, "Oh, it's because Murray is struggling in the preseason." But I think it's they're not going to give it
38:26to him. I think he was under the impression that, hey, if you sign with us, you're going to get every chance to
38:30win this job, but they're also going to give JJ McCarthy every chance to win it as well because of the first round draft
38:35capital they spent on him. It's natural.
38:38I think eventually you're going to see Kyler Murray named starter. And if he's the starter in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson at wide receiver, with a
38:46capable offensive line, with Jordan Addison, who I know has been a little dinged up, Jawan Jennings, TJ Hawinson, and Kevin Oonnell as the play caller,
38:54he's going to deliver at that QB17 price tag. And it's the rushing upside he has where we go back even two years ago, he
39:02had 500, what is it, 550 rushing yards.
39:05So, he'll have a willingness to run.
39:07This is the year that Kyler Murray is trying to earn himself a contract in 2027.
39:12>> That too.
39:13>> It's it's the lowest paid starting quarterback in the NFL this year and um will end up getting paid an absolute
39:20fortune just by getting a contract. And there's so many chances for him in 2027 where people will say Theo, there's going to be all these rookies drafted.
39:27But Kyler Murray as sort of the bridge quarterback that's there. There's also Minnesota that if Murray delivers, you know, there's going to be that internal
39:35pressure just to resign him, especially after losing Daniel Jones and losing Sam Darnold after having them in the building. So, we also have a Kyler
39:42Murray share together on an NFC team that we split, Dave. So, we're rooting for that one, too. We waited on quarterback on that. We waited waited
39:49like a little too long on quarterback, but we have Kyler Murray there, so we would love him to deliver there. We have
39:54Malik Willis on that one. We could have done a historical comp for Malik Willis.
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41:53I'll go next and then you've got a really good one to end it. I'm going to go with a double one. Okay. 2026
42:00Coloulston Lovelin is looking to me like 2020 Darren Waller.
42:06>> And Darren Waller in 2020 goes absolutely bonkers. You know, this was a banner year for tight end production, but Darren Waller had the breakout year
42:15in 2019 and then people doubted him in 2020 and they overthought it and he ended up falling to like the like the
42:24the fifth round, early fifth round in like tight end premium leagues and even further in like home leagues. And he ended up having this phenomenal year. He
42:33had 107 catches, 1196 receiving yards, and it was nine receiving touchdowns.
42:41And when you look at how he got there, the 27.7% target share, that's a number that Coulson Lovelin will not get to.
42:48But I think the efficiency in the Chicago offense in terms of where he like Coulson Lovelin getting not a 27% target share, but I think a good enough
42:56target share to support a massive fantasy scoring season, a season that could potentially not necessarily get to Brock Bowers, but be a strong tight end
43:07two overall type year is there. And when you look at it, it was Waller was number one in deep targets. Coloulston Lovelin,
43:15that's his MO. Number one in red zone targets that year. Darren Waller had 24 red zone targets that year, which was
43:22first in the NFL. And I think if you look at Coloulston Lovelin now, the runout where Luther Burton's banged up, Luther Burton's going to miss a month
43:30with a groin injury, where you've got a very good chance that Coloulston Lovelin is a top two target earner in Chicago
43:37right now. and then a good enough chance that he's the number one target earner on what should be a great offense. Much
43:43like Darren Waller, athletically gifted player, athletically gifted player.
43:48Waller was like this late bloomer who had some off the- field stuff, but he was like older, like late 20s when he
43:53had this year in 2020. Coloulston Lovelin's going to be like 22 this year, but Coloulston Lovelin, this year's version of 2020 Darren Waller, what do
44:01you say? Chicago Dave Klug, I I think you're bang on. So, I I talked about these training camp reports that I have
44:08to do and I cover the Chicago Bears. I edit the other 31 teams, but I'm the one that actually like writes all of the
44:15Chicago Bears stuff. And part of my process is going through like I have a uh a Twitter list of all of the best
44:21Chicago B reporters and I kind of like go through the entire week reading all the tweets, reading all the training camp reports, listening to all the
44:27podcasts I can. And I tweeted it out yesterday. I said I just spent all day kind of digging through Bears training
44:33camp reports and my biggest takeaway is that I need more Coulson Lovelin because we spent so much time is it going to be
44:38Roma Dunay or is it going to be Luther Burden and I think there's merit to that conversation but I truly think that the
44:44answer is going to be Coulson Lovelin like everything that I have heard over the last two weeks has just been that
44:50Coulson Lovelin isn't just like taking a step forward but people are talking about him being a superstar like being one of the best players in the league
44:57that he's getting the Rob Gronowski comps and the Travis Kelce comps and all of these like comps that are only saved
45:03for like some of the best tight ends in NFL history. So, I am completely there.
45:07I think the biggest thing for me, it was like the first or second day of training camp and it was just a video of Coulson
45:13Lovelin walking onto the field. I was like, he's huge. Like he looks like he put on like 25 lbs. And then you
45:19remember that last year during the draft process, like leading all the way up to training camp, he was nursing that shoulder injury. So, he was taking time
45:25off in the gym. He talked about how he had to deal with some muscular atrophy from not being able to lift and like get
45:30ready for the season. Missed some of training camp to the injury as well. Had some mid-season injuries. So like everything was working against him in
45:38his rookie season and he still found a way to produce. Now he goes into year two with a second year familiarity in
45:44this offense. Looking like he's put on about 15 or 20 pounds of muscle. And I mean just the way that they're talking
45:49about it like they say that like Caleb Williams can throw the ball in his general vicinity. And like even if it's
45:54a poorly thrown ball like he is just coming down with everything. He is just um added muscle which is helping him in
46:00the run blocking game as well which makes defenses have to change how they're going to play him. I mean to me
46:05like every single signal for Coulson Leland right now is so positive. I had been kind of in like Brock Bowers are
46:12bust where like I'm drafting Brock Bowers and if I don't get him I'm just waiting. And now I find myself if I do
46:16miss out on Brock Bowers, just making Coulson Lovelin that guy that I want to get in round three.
46:22>> Yeah. And I I think that Lovelin, we have to move him up in the rankings with this burden thing as well. And it's like
46:28Lovelin is a player you want to have access to. You talked about like DJ Moore, you want to mix him in. Even if
46:33you don't have like this massive conviction on Lovelin that we share, don't be you don't want to like be wrong and totally miss out. I think you can
46:40absolutely smash. Um, I my Coulson Lovelin bags are completely packed and I know Dave's are as well. My bags are heavy, Dave. I can't I can hardly even
46:48lift them up in Dynasty and I want to get there in reddraft by the end of the month as well. I'm going to give you a
46:52bonus one. This is an unofficial one, but 2026 Tyler Warren is 2023 Evan Ingram with more explosiveness.
47:03>> So, we talk about, right?
47:05>> Yeah. 2023 Evan Ingram. 143 targets, 114 catches. He had a 23.6% target share. When I look at Tyler Warren, what are we dealing with? Alec
47:16Pierce not playing. Josh Downs now banged up. Maybe they signed Keenan Allen who's probably older than Dave Klug at this point. Um, and Tyler Warren
47:26last year was 21.2% target share. Um, the one thing Tyler Warren offers is he offers more exp potential for way more
47:33explosive plays. Evan Ingram was sort of a low AOT kind of merchant there.
47:37obviously gave you something with the yakability, but it was sort of like the get the ball out of out of Trevor
47:41Lawrence's hands. They use Deon Ingram in the slot a lot. So, it's not like a perfect comp, but I think in terms of a
47:46runout of a tight end who could lead his team in targets, who could get there on a PPR level, I think Tyler Warren could
47:52be there. I think we could look at 100 catches. I think we can look at 140 uh targets. I think it's a very realistic
47:59expectation. We know that that Tyler Warren excelled with Daniel Jones and Daniel Jones back under center for Indianapolis. We know that Shane Stiken
48:08has a ton of plans for Tyler Warren. I think the ceiling is potentially higher than where Evan Ingram was, but in terms
48:14of the overall volume and target share, I think it could be very similar. So, it's the year of the tight end, Dave. We
48:20talked about Brock Bowers. We talked about Lovelin. We're throwing out a bonus one with Tyler Warren. I think Sam Leaporta is a really good target. I
48:27think it's a year where you want to get it right at tight end. If you don't get Bowowers, who's expensive, got to find a
48:33way to play catch-up. And I think the year 2 guys are really good bets. Uh where you at on on Warren?
48:38>> Oh, I've I've drafted so much Warren.
48:40Right now I'm looking at my uh exposure through about 250 drafts so far and there are three guys that I'm above 20%
48:47on and it is Brock Bowers, Tucker Craft, and Tyler Warren. I mean, like this is a year that I feel like you want to pay up
48:52for these game-breaking tight ends. And if you don't, yeah, like you could mix in and hope for the best with a Greg
48:57Doolich or a Pat Frier or a Terren Ferguson at the end of your drafts, but I am of the belief that ADP kind of has
49:04it right this year that like you want to get one of these guys early. If you don't get a Brock Bowers, Trey McBride,
49:09Coulson Lovelin, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pittz, Tucker Craft, like these are the guy Sam Laorta, these are the guys that you should be targeting in your drafts
49:17because I do think that Brock Bowers kind of gives you that like game-breaking type of production. But I feel like this year it's going to be a
49:24league of halves and have nots where half of your league is going to have this this like pool of like seven tight
49:31ends that I think are going to be differencemaking tight ends and then everybody else is going to be streaming and getting frustrating production and
49:392.8 points per week from their tight end slot. So this year, you know, I know everybody always says just like wait on
49:45tight ends. This is a year I think you want to pay up and get one of those top six, top seven guys or you're just going
49:50to be fighting an uphill battle all season.
49:52Yeah. In fantasy football, we're willing to sort of change the things we believe where you've been told by all these people for years that tight end, you
49:59want to be really, really early or you want to wait on at the position. It's been so like don't attack those mid-tier
50:05tight end ones. I think this year it actually flips around the mid-tier tight end ones, the starting at like tight end
50:12four with with Tyler with Tyler Warren, guys like Tucker Craft, guys like Sam Leaporta, >> Kyle Pitts, too.
50:18>> Yeah, Pitts and then Harold Fannon Jr.
50:20probably the number one bet to be the the leading target earner in Cleveland.
50:23He's a little beat up in ADP.
50:25>> And people are going to have these long nuanced shows about how to like find tight end value. Here's the easiest.
50:31Here's a cliffnotes version. Okay, bookmark this one. You want tight ends who can be the number one or number two target on their team. Period. If you can
50:40identify those guys, they're fantasy relevant. We identified a number of them today. So, we're going to we're going to we're going to lock and load. We're
50:46going to win at the tight end position.
50:48You got a very spicy one. You are making a comparison to one of the best fantasy seasons of all time, Dave.
50:53>> Yes, and this is definitely my spiciest.
50:55We saved the spiciest for last, just like they do on Hot Ones here. This is the bomb that I'm dropping right now.
51:02But I've got Pukanua is going to give us that really, really awesome season that we saw a few years back, 2021 Cooper
51:08Cup. I think that is in the range of outcomes for Pukanua this year. This is a guy who just added to his tool bag
51:14every single year. You go back and you watch rookie season Pukuna and it felt like they were just spamming the same
51:20play over and over again. It was just like slant slant slant slant slant and like he made it work and like was
51:25productive with that role. But now we are seeing him starting to be more of a downfield receiver. We're seeing him play at the X position where he can beat
51:32press man coverage. And of course they've got Dvonte Adams there who is one of the best goal line receivers in NFL history. And that put a little bit
51:41of a cap on Puknua last year. But we did see Puka Nakua got better at contested catches. It was never uh a part of his
51:49game that wasn't good, but now he is starting to excel there. We saw him get injured on that touchdown catch last
51:54year where he missed a little bit of time, but just able to moss guys now. I mean, this guy has like a Terrell Owens
52:00type build, just like 6'3, just muscles on muscles. So, that's the one thing that's always kind of been lacking is the touchdown upside, but we know the
52:08target earning abilities are there. We know the yard after catch abilities are there. And now if he can be a little bit
52:14better in the touchdown department, I think this guy has a legitimate um chance of hitting the triple crown this year, and I've talked about this a
52:21handful of times. I mean, we're talking the slimmest of margins here, but since coming into the league, no wide receiver is outscoring Puknua on a per game
52:29basis. He's averaging 20.00 fantasy points per game. Jamar Chase since the beginning of Puka Nikua's rookie season who remember Jamar Chase also has a year
52:37of experience under his belt that Puka didn't have is averaging 19.99. So Puka Nua my number one wide receiver this year. I'm taking him third overall
52:46before Jamar Chase. I think we can see that type of record-breaking season coming from Nua this season. So I got into it with uh Scott Barrett and the
52:55Fantasy Points guys. Fantasy Points Data put out a a post saying that like Pukanakua without injury distinction has like this ridiculous points per game.
53:03Yeah. Um and he's healthy now. So, I get it. Um I I'll say that you have another out there where the the Rams also sort
53:11of >> flirted with trading for AJ Brown and that's that's a could be a little bit of an indictment on where they think Dvonte
53:19Adams is at. Now, Devonte Adams can get there just with touchdowns, but in terms of like, is there a little bit of
53:25regression with Devonte Adams that maybe we're not factoring in in ADP potentially. You also look back at the NFL draft where they were sort of highly
53:34tied to Mai Lemon before eventually going with Tai Simpson. So, Mai Lemon, AJ Brown, now it's just going with Devonte Adams. If there was a little bit
53:42of regression with with DA, then you could end up seeing like the first read rate, the target share, all of that
53:48stuff. And like you see those games with Shawn McVey where you've seen it over the years with Cooper Cup. You've seen
53:54it with uh you've seen it with Devonte Adams. You've seen it with Pukanakua many times over where if Shawn McVey thinks he has the right matchup, he'll
54:02target you 25 times. He'll go he'll just run you out and just keep targeting you like second career NFL game.
54:09>> Yeah. I mean, it was the run out there.
54:11So, I get it. I'm still on Jamar Chase as my wide receiver one overall. I got into it with the fantasy points guys on
54:17that one. And you're like, I could have gone 2026 Jamar Chase is the is the same as 2024 Jamar Chase. I think you could
54:25draft both of these guys. They're both awesome picks. Um, Nua though, you make a very, very, very strong statement for Dave. You always kind of bring the heat
54:33here every time you podcast with me.
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55:39If you can know the final stats of any player in fantasy football, who would it be?
55:43>> Oh, Christian McAffrey without a doubt.
55:45Like I I I waffle back and forth on what to do with Christian McCaffrey in drafts so much. There's sometimes that I'm
55:51sitting there at like 103 and I'm like, I should take Christian McCaffrey here because if he stays healthy and then there's other times I'm picking at 109,
55:57McAffrey falls to me and I'm like, ah, it's McAffrey, which I don't know if you saw left practice today with tightness
56:02already. So, I think that's one that I would love to know. Like I feel good about all of these picks going in the
56:06first few rounds, but Chris McAffrey is the one that like could be the overall RB1 or could just be an absolute
56:12landmine. I would love some clarity on what McAffrey does this season.
56:17>> Yeah, it's it's a wild one with McAffrey because if he stays healthy and he's what he did what he did last year, then
56:23he's maybe the best pick on the board.
56:25We're seeing oneoff drafts where Dave, you've seen drafts where he falls to like the 110, the 111.
56:30>> He fell to the 205 in a draft that I live streamed last Wednesday. We were doing a draft on NFC. I couldn't believe
56:36it. And it was funny. The guy just ended up start. He went Jonathan Taylor in round one and McAffrey in round two. And
56:40I was like, you know, it's not even unique at that point cuz I see so many people do McAffrey and JT in round one
56:45and two. He just kind of flip-fpped him.
56:47But McAffrey all the way to 205 in an actual $350 draft. Just mind-blowing stuff right now.
56:54>> Yeah. I mean, I think people it's a little bit of you're you're covering those NFC drafts where I think it's a
56:59lot of drafters who are chasing a little bit of unknown upside. They're also fading an older running back who took on
57:06a high volume of touches last year and then some of the efficiency metrics for McAffrey that show like the explosiveness where you you don't want
57:13to call the a guy who's on the Mount Rushmore of fantasy football a little bit of a compiler but last year he was
57:19boosted by the usage like the receiving usage was excellent. So I mean I get it.
57:25Let us know in the comments where you're at and make sure you're checking out everything Dave Kugy's putting out because it's absolute fire. He'll be
57:31back on this channel whenever I can drag him back here. And stick with us here at Rontoire. We just hit 40,000 subs on
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