0:00Which players have unknown upsides and could smash at their current ADP cost in fantasy football in 2026? I'm Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst right
0:09here at RotoWire. Make sure you go check out my updated rankings, updating them continually throughout August over at rotowire.com. Use the code Theo35 for
0:1935% off. And a bunch of the players I'm talking about today are also players that are sort of difficult to rank. And
0:26in fantasy football, you are going to have players that we don't really know the upside for. And players whose usage could just be simply incredible, but we
0:36haven't necessarily seen it at any point in their career. A lot of times these are younger players, sometimes these are veterans cast into new situations,
0:45sometimes these players benefit from scheme changes, and we are sort of used to seeing them used one way, and then this year they're used differently, but
0:54in a very good way. Uh we're going to talk about a number of players today.
0:58And another edge in fantasy is you're always going to have wait-and-see-it-first drafters in your league, where there's going to be drafters saying, you know, I haven't
1:06seen it from this guy. You know, maybe I'm open-minded to him next year if he scores a bunch of points this year, but
1:11I'm not going to take that chance. I'm going to take this known commodity, and I'm going to avoid this player that's
1:16sort of a increased price tag. But a lot of times in fantasy football, the sheep get slaughtered. You don't You don't need to go crazy, but being a
1:27wait-and-see-it-first drafter, it's a hard game to play that way because every year we have breakouts, every year we have players cast in new roles, and
1:37every year we have players pay off at their cost. So, we're going to go round-by-round here and talk about a couple players that are sort of
1:43difficult for us to process, but could end up having exceptional seasons at cost. And a number of these players could end up being drafted way more
1:52highly in 2027 drafts than they are in 2026. Be prepared to take on a little bit of risk for the ultimate reward and
2:00that's fantasy football championships and hopefully cashing a big old check full of money when you win your league.
2:07First round, easily, the the player that's sort of the most polarizing in fantasy right now at his cost is Ashton Gentty.
2:15Running back, Vegas Raiders. You know the you know the story. This was one of the most hyped prospects we've seen in 25 years. Coming out of Boise State,
2:25exceptional draft capital in 2025. He was being drafted about the same level as he is this year in a much worse
2:33situation last year when we were sort of betting on the overall talent.
2:36Now, Ashton Gentty is going to benefit in a major way from a from a scheme change and also a regime change in in
2:46Vegas.
2:48Uh when you talk about Gentty, the the story is interesting because you have Kliff Kingsbury, who's a running back whisperer.
2:57And you talk about what Kliff Kingsbury's done for us in consecutive seasons leading up to 2026. 2024, Alvin Kamara was one of the best ADP values on
3:06the board. He was sort of falling.
3:08Kamara had been slipping a little bit in terms of overall fantasy production.
3:13Kamara was this exceptional fantasy asset for many years and then we saw sort of Kamara with this receiving kind of going downhill a
3:25little bit. Drafters looking at him as sort of an older player. And then you get Alvin Kamara with Kliff Kingsbury and he ends up having a career high in
3:33rushing yards and he ends up getting 68 receptions, eight total touchdowns in only 14 games played. And that's on a New Orleans offense that was red hot to
3:42start the year, lost a bunch of players with the injury, but Kliff Kingsbury's reputation as the running back whisperer starts to grow there. Goes over to
3:50Seattle last year and we talk about the unpredictable nature of the Seattle Seahawks backfield.
3:57But, if we take a look at it collectively, what Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet were able to accomplish together, uh unbelievable. Combined
4:06production, we have 19 rushing touchdowns. We had smash weeks from each of these guys, and then we saw what Kenneth Walker was able to do when Zach
4:15Charbonnet went down, when he was averaging like 20 points per game from week 16 on, including the Super Bowl when he wins the MVP. So, Clint Kubiak
4:23orchestrated that. Now, you've got him with Ashton Gentty. And Ashton Gentty last year, uh some real positivity considering the quality of the offense.
4:32They yards per carry average were were not good. But, collectively 266 carries and 55 catches. The 55 catches is the
4:42huge number we want to pay attention to.
4:44But, when you look at the rushing production, that should get better this year. You've got the offensive line in Vegas is going to be a better than it
4:53was last year. I mean, you can't really get worse than they were last year.
4:57But, when we talk about uh yards after contact, we talk about avoided tackle rate, uh avoided tackle rate for Gentty
5:06was like 14.4%. So, like that's a a decent rate for him. Uh we talk about the quality of the offensive line,
5:13really really poor. But, the yards per carry is going to go up. And again, the volume he was able to handle last year,
5:19266 carries, that's a very solid number for us to look at. So, if the efficiency trends up with that sort of rushing
5:27volume, we're right there. But, it's the receiving work that really stands out.
5:31Last year, he had 73 targets, 55 catches, and he had five touchdown uh touchdowns as well as a receiver. And by
5:39all accounts, Vegas is going to ramp him up as a receiver. Multiple beat reporters have talked about that. The coaching staff has talked about trying
5:45to get more out of him. So, we could be looking at 70 plus catches for Gentry.
5:50He's a player that is occasionally falling into round two. I've seen him sort of as low as the 205. In a lot of
5:56leagues, you're going to have to make that call right at the 1-2 turn, right at the 11 overall spot. But, there is a
6:01scenario that Gentry puts up a massive year. Understand the range of outcomes here that it could underperform as well.
6:08Underperformed last year, but he definitely is an unknown upside commodity.
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7:11Going into round two, and this is a player that's also starting to slip a little bit. In round two, we could talk about a number of
7:18players with unknown upside, but the the clear player here is Omarian Hampton.
7:23Omarian Hampton, there's been a number of discourse on the other running backs being involved in LA. Uh certainly, I think Keaton
7:31Mitchell's going to get touches on a weekly basis, but the idea that Keaton Mitchell is going to somehow prevent Hampton from returning value in fantasy
7:39football, even if Keaton Mitchell's getting eight to 10 touches a game, Hampton's can still get there with touchdowns. And when you look at the
7:47Chargers offense, if they're going to be this massive breakout performer this year with Mike McDaniel, then Omarian Hampton is probably going to return some
7:55value at the end of the second round.
7:57Last year he had 545 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 4.4 yards per carry, and then it was the receiving work, which was pretty promising.
8:07A very strong catch rate. Uh he had 32 catches on only 35 targets, and he had no fumbles lost last year. We talk about
8:15the pedigree of player with Hampton.
8:17Like Hampton was a first-round draft pick in 2025. Would have had a little more enthusiasm with him as in terms of his level of a prospect
8:26if it was not for Ashton Jeanty. And then you talk about some of the spike weeks we were seeing from Omarian
8:32Hampton before he went down with an injury. Came back at the end of the year, was never the same, but he was
8:37really trending up. We saw a number of spike weeks sort of strung together.
8:41Then we think about, much like Ashton Jeanty, the play caller. We now have Mike McDaniel calling plays. And even with Mike McDaniel sort of getting
8:49multiple pieces involved, McDaniel has been a running back whisperer.
8:53Devon Achane has had double-digit touchdowns for three straight years as a pro. We had the the Raheem Mostert season where he led the NFL in rushing
9:02touchdowns sort of out of nowhere. So, this has been three years of a McDaniel backs, plural, crushing for us in fantasy. So,
9:11Omarian Hampton, I get it. You don't have to take him at the at the 1-2 turn anymore cuz I think the market's sort of
9:16beating him up a little bit. I took him at the 209 in an FFPC Main Event this past week. I feel like that's about
9:23right. In some formats, you're going to get him at the beginning of the third round. In others, it's going a locked-in
9:29late second. But, when you start doing the mental gymnastics, what player could be a top five pick in 2027?
9:36You start adding up and it the list is not that long from guys that are in the second and third round. There's a few
9:42guys here, but Hampton absolutely has to be one of them.
9:45So, are you embracing a little bit of an unknown situation? Absolutely. But, you're also embracing an unknown ceiling that's extremely exciting.
9:55Another mental picture here. If you're projecting the LA Chargers to be a top-five scoring offense in the NFL, Justin Herbert will obviously be a big
10:04winner there. But, who would be the second winner? Is it Ladd McConkey? Is it Keaton Mitchell? Is it one of the
10:11tight ends? Is it QJ? Or is it the back that they used a first-round pick on in 2025 who was scoring at a very high rate
10:20before injury and had put it together for a multiple-week sample size on high volume showing a two-way ability as both a runner and receiver. I think you have
10:31to be open-minded to Hampton. And if you're drafting multiple teams, if you're a high-volume guy, you don't want to be without Omari and
10:38Hampton. Getting into round three, it gets a little bit more interesting. I mean, the clear standout here, there's two of them. And and one of them is very
10:46young, and one of them is really the oldest player that I'm talking about today. And that's DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles. And
10:56Smith enters a season where we are finally seeing him as the number one target. We saw it his rookie year where
11:05there was sort of a some strong production there. Then, you're adding it entering into year two, Philadelphia goes out and trades for AJ Brown, and
11:14Smith sort of gets cast into a wide receiver two role. A very good wide receiver two role. And DeVonta Smith has
11:21had two seasons where he's averaged 15 points per game.
11:25But, when we look at Smith now in a number one target role, and we say, could he simply just fill in
11:34an A.J. Brown-like role in this offense?
11:37They're certainly very different players in the way that they earn targets. But, if we simply could can take A.J. Brown's usage and production, where A.J. Brown
11:48has had at least a 27% target share and at least a 35% air yard share and a top five first read rate every year he was
11:57in Philly. If we can put those onto DeVonta Smith, then you're talking about a player who's going to pay off in the
12:04third round. Beat reporters have talked about that he could have a JSN-like role.
12:10And the splits without A.J. Brown over the years have kind of been terrific. In three seasons, the previous three seasons, Smith has averaged nine targets
12:18per game and 16.2 points per game in games without A.J. Brown. And again, twice averaged 15-plus points per game.
12:26Was a very highly selected player in the NFL draft, first-round pick, was the Heisman Trophy winner, and if you
12:34watched Smith at Alabama, it was insane production. I mean, putting it on people, putting up massive, massive,
12:44massive numbers, um, unbelievable player at Alabama. It was really, if you go through the SEC in the last 25 years and
12:51put together your uh, all last 25-year team, uh, for SEC players, Smith is one of the starting wide receivers, hands down. Heisman Trophy winning year under
13:02Nick Saban was the most productive wide receiver Saban has ever had for a one-year period.
13:07Then when you look at Dallas Goedert, who I'm very high on. I love Dallas Goedert. I think tight end 15 is a
13:12really solid, solid target.
13:14But, Dallas Goedert's career high in targets was 87. He's a cap target player. If Dallas Goedert gets to 100 targets this year, that's a win there.
13:23Then you look at Quez Watkins, who's promising player, but has dealt with hamstring injuries. Smith is 27 years old, but there is an exceptional amount
13:31of unknown upside with this pro- production. The other player in round three, it's easy. It's Jahmyr Gibbs.
13:37Jahmyr Gibbs is starting to fall. You got the high ankle sprain. You have the concern of the overall offensive quality. You have the concern over a
13:46potential quarterback change early on in the year with Carson Beck taking on over for Jacoby Brissett. Then you've got the concern with Tyler Allgeier being a
13:54thorn in his side, sort of like year one Bijan Robinson. Then you got the drafters saying, "Ashton Jeanty burned me last year. I'm not doing this again,
14:02Theo. Don't talk to me about another rookie running back."
14:04But when we talk about Jahmyr Gibbs, you're talking about a player who was drafted third overall in the NFL draft, and now you're drafting him in the mid
14:12to late third round, occasionally early fourth round pick.
14:15This is the most disrespected top 10 running back pick that we've seen in quite some time. Go down the list, and I
14:21and I know offensive situations were way different, but Saquon Barkley rookie year, drafted top 10, goes in the top 10, first round pick.
14:30Zeke Elliott, first round pick, goes in the first round of of fantasy drafts, mashes.
14:36Go back to last year, Ashton Jeanty. Go back to Bijan Robinson.
14:40I mean, even Najee Harris, first round pick, pretty much going inside of the two-three turn area as a rookie. He produced. He was like 17 points a game
14:49as a rookie.
14:50So, Jahmyr Gibbs, the ankle's annoying, but it doesn't sound like he's going to miss any time. And he's very much boosted by the pedigree as a receiver.
15:00So, I get it. Is there risk with Jahmyr Gibbs?
15:03I I think so, but I think it's a little bit punitive how low he's getting pushed down in terms of actual ADP right now.
15:11The fear in the market is overweighing the upside potential and the upside that Love could produce in a major way as we
15:21get to the second half of the season.
15:22So, if you're embracing unknown upside and you want to draft a guy who's going to be drafted higher in 2027, it's
15:29Jeremiah Love. And how does he get there? Does he get there because he has a middling 12-point per game season? No.
15:36He gets there by smashing over the second half of the season and making an impact in the fantasy playoffs. I had
15:42Matt Waldman on the show, and one thing that sort of resonates with me, uh Waldman I podcasted with a bunch of
15:47times, and I'm not This is not, you know, just trying to hype up Matt Waldman, but Matt Waldman compared him to Alvin Kamara.
15:52And Matt's been around the block scouting guys forever and compared him to Alvin Kamara in terms of his explosiveness, elusiveness, and ability
16:00as a receiver.
16:01So, I understand the downside risk, but if you're sitting there in the early fourth round and Jeremiah Love is sitting there because of market fear,
16:08I'm taking that bet. And if you want to combine Jeremiah Love with some other veteran running back, there's plenty this year. Go ahead and go draft
16:15yourself a Rhamondre Stevenson a couple rounds later. Go ahead and draft yourself a Tony Pollard in round eight uh round seven and get yourself a little
16:22bit of a bridge but if you want to play it that way. Or if you want to just draft an exceptionally talented player
16:29in a questionable situation and embrace the upside, Love is sort of sitting there for you. I understand the risk, but the reward could be very, very
16:38strong if he hits.
16:40Another player who maybe could have been higher, but now we're starting to see him in the fourth round, Emeka Egbuka, who everybody knows this
16:47is my guy. Emeka Egbuka, we called him all throughout the summer. Now we've got the toe injury. So, the toe injury's
16:55annoying. I mean, when we start talking about toe injuries, there's having to play through pain, discomfort, re-aggravation, all of those things
17:02enter your mind. But now you're paying a fourth-round price tag on a player that was probably headed to the 2-3 turn
17:08without the toe injury. The vibes early on in training camp and in OTAs were immaculate. And Tampa Bay, the run out
17:15for Egbuka was fantastic. Mike Evans now a 49er and you've got Abuka who averaged 20 points per game over the first five
17:24weeks of last season. Was on like a generational start for a rookie. Was dominating. Then you end up with the hamstring injury he plays through and
17:34the production dipped in a major way, but we still have that sample size. Five weeks, 20 points per game right out the
17:41gate. First round pedigree, all-time leading receiver in Ohio State history.
17:47205 catches as a collegiate. And I understand he was there for a while, but you're talking about elite teammate target competition at Ohio State. Go
17:56down the list. It It reads like an unobtainable fantasy football team when you start leading reading about all of the teammates playing in the NFL on
18:04Sundays that played alongside Abuka at Ohio State. Last year he had a 23.6% target share and he had 127 targets.
18:14Those are very very good numbers. You also talk about the end zone targets.
18:19It was highly targeted in the end zone.
18:22Going to play the Z receiver in the Zach Robinson offense. So, talk talking about the Z when you look at sort of the Sean
18:29McVay coaching tree, start looking at guys like Cooper Kupp. I'm not saying he's going to reach that level, but it's a strong role to play. Then you look at
18:38Robinson who had kind of middling results in Atlanta, but we did see Drake London averaging 16 plus points per game in consecutive seasons. If Abuka plays
18:48through this injury or if it's kind of an overrated injury right now, then I think him reaching London numbers or better is very obtainable this year.
18:58Pre-toe injury I was saying I think he's going to average 17 and a half 18 points per game. Now the the cost is lower and
19:06the unknown upside is certainly there.
19:08Year two breakout bet. Also in the fourth round in a lot of formats. And if you're playing tight end premium, you're
19:14going to have to take him in the second round. If you're in a NFFC or Sleeper ESPN league, fourth or fifth round is
19:21about where you're going to have to pay for Colston Loveland. Uh dominated usage down the stretch. This is This is sort
19:27of the tight end that could maybe break football. I I Tyler Warren, really into Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren is also a
19:34really strong bet a couple of rounds later. I could have talked about him, but the tight end I want to talk about
19:39we're going full circle circle circle here.
19:42We're going full full circle and we're talking about a player that I've been on since I got over to Rotowire. It's
19:47Colston Loveland. We want to end August talking about unknown upside. Let's talk about the tight end with maybe the highest upside outcome.
19:55Warren can get there on targets and target share, and he's going to catch a ton of passes.
20:00He looks like the number one target in Indy. I get it. But when you talk about the quality of the offense, it's Colston
20:06Loveland. Plays with Caleb Williams on a Ben Johnson offense with one of the league's 10 best offensive lines, and we saw it 10 last year. Colston Loveland
20:16rocket ship. You're talking about the number 10 overall pick in 2025 for a reason. Alpha tight end at Michigan. Led Michigan in all categories in 2024. Uh
20:26targets, catches on a bad Michigan offense. Bad Michigan passing game, I should say. Certainly a a down year for Michigan that year coming off the natty.
20:34And the year that they won the national title, Colston Loveland was neck and neck with Roman Wilson, who was a third
20:39round pick that year for Pittsburgh in terms of catches. He was like right there, almost led them in catches.
20:46When we look at Colston Loveland dominated usage down the stretch, 10 plus targets and 20 plus PPR points in three straight games, including a
20:55eight-catch, 137-yard touchdown performance in the NFL playoffs in that win over the Green Bay Packers.
21:02He had nine catches over 20 yards, and even though Loveland was sort of slow out the gate, he was fourth in air yards
21:11and third in deep targets among all tight ends. Loveland is a huge upside candidate here.
21:17When we go into round five, and occasionally this player's going to cost cost you like the four-five turn, but now we're seeing him more often in round
21:25five because he's missed some time in the preseason. It's Loveland's teammate, Luther Burden. And we talk about Iffy Abuka as a massive breakout candidate,
21:33but Abuka already scored. Luther Burden we're waiting for it. Luther Burden, a high second-round pick out of Missouri in the 2025 NFL Draft. Ben Johnson
21:43started hyping him up from the word go, but last year he had to deal with DJ Moore, he had to deal with Ola Meti
21:49Zaccheaus, which was an incredibly tilting situation for fantasy managers.
21:54But then you look at the metrics.
21:56Luther Burden was third in the NFL in yards per route run last year. That's a really strong stat for a rookie in a
22:03limited sample size. Then we've got Ben Johnson saying he's sort of buying stock in Luther Burden, talking about Luther Burden's invincible mindset, and he
22:12evokes names like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jarvis Landry. And those two guys are huge signal for Luther Burden. Luther Burden's going to be on the field a lot,
22:22a lot. And he's also going to be playing the slot and getting those manufactured looks in the Ben Johnson offense. Talk
22:28about how impactful that was for Amon-Ra St. Brown and how impactful it was for Jarvis Landry back in the day. Anybody
22:36who had Jarvis Landry in PPR understood sort of what he was, uh, and Ben Johnson was there for that as well. Ben
22:43Johnson's come out and said he wants to set the all-time record for points per game this year. Like, Ben Johnson is a
22:49madman. He wants to break the NFL record for points per game. This is not a coach that's going to take the foot off the
22:55gas. We talk about Loveland, we talk about Burden, we talk about unknown upside, we talk about year two breakouts, they all get tied together
23:03here. It's like a perfect relationship here where take a shots on these guys, and if you want to take shots on Romeo Doubs, say we could
23:10talk about him, too. But, it's Burden, it's Loveland, round four, round five.
23:15Embrace the Chicago offense, embrace both of these guys, very talented players, and Ben Johnson is hyping up these guys any chance he
23:25can get. Burden is cheaper now than he was going to be be because he missed time in in the preseason here.
23:32>> [snorts] >> But, by all accounts, sounds like he's going to be ready to rock on week one.
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25:31Keeping it going in round five, I'll talk about Scott-Matthews. Because Scott-Matthews is a polarizing player, and I think a lot of people will
25:38probably eyebrow roll right now. Like rolling their eyes at this suggestion.
25:44But when we talk about Kamryn Scott-Matthews, is there unknown upside in New York? Now, certainly Malik Nabers is going to be the focal point of the
25:51offense, and it looks like he's fast-tracked to be back and and be a very impactful wide receiver for us in fantasy. But Kamryn
25:59Scott-Matthews last year averaged 16.0 points per game. He was playing exceptionally well with Jackson Dart as a starter.
26:09And then we look at Scott-Matthews where Tyron Tracy missed the block, caused Dart to get hit, and it feels like there's the idea that Tracy is going to
26:18really cut into Scott-Matthews' work.
26:20It looks like way less of a bet. Now, New York brings in Najee Harris, and certainly Greg Roman likes Najee Harris,
26:26and Najee Harris has sort of been talking up how he was promised a role or whatever. But at the end of the day, the
26:32offense is going to revolve around Malik Nabers and Kamryn Scott-Matthews. Those are the guys, along with Jackson Dart with his mobility. But is there a
26:40scenario where Kamryn Scott-Matthews can get himself into the second round in 2027 drafts after you're paying a fifth-round pick for him in 2026? If he
26:48stays healthy, I think we could be there. Because again, we talk about the production. We're last year's 16 points per game, showed ability as a pass
26:57catcher, and we look at what New York was able to do this off-season. Drafted Francis Mauigoa, one of the best run
27:04blockers in the entire draft. They draft Malachi Fields, one of the best blocking wide receivers in the entire draft, if not the best blocking wide receiver. And
27:15Malachi Fields is going to be a pretty much full-time player. Sounds like he's going to be in potentially two wide receiver sets, and definitely three wide
27:22receiver sets.
27:24Offering that massive ability as a blocker. And where did Malachi Fields come from? Malachi Fields came from Notre Dame. Notre Dame had two
27:31first-round running backs last year who rushed for absurd yards per carry numbers in Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price. So, Malachi Fields obviously has
27:40the receipts to show that he's been associated with elite rushing production as a blocker. Then you've got Pat Ricard, who's like
27:48a 300-lb fullback. Just Baltimore, you know the story. Follows Harbaugh, follows Roman over. Pat Ricard, we know what he is. He's like a
27:58Ask Just go ask a Ravens fan how what they think of Pat Ricard. Sort of a like a very popular player. Massive
28:06massive fullback. Always sort of a Swiss Army knife in what he could do. But huge elite blocking back there.
28:14Keaton Mitchell's got the potential to If If he just has his same points per game average that he did last year, but
28:21he stays upright for, let's say, 15 games out of 17, then Keaton Mitchell's ADP is going to climb drastically heading into 2027.
28:30Is there a chance for injury re-aggravation? Is Keaton Mitchell a player that puts his body on the line by the way he plays? A little bit, for
28:38sure. But again, you're paying a fifth-round price tag for a guy that had elite points per game average as a rookie last
28:46year, and now is in a situation where New York has their best offensive line in years, added an elite fullback, added
28:53an elite wide receiver blocker, and is in an offense where they think they're going to embrace him. So, take a look at
28:59Cam Skater in round five. Another player we talked about like Devante Smith where identifying a 27-year-old player who also has this unknown upside inside of
29:11round five, it's Christian Watson. And Christian Watson taking on a sort of number one role in Green Bay, we look at the massive contract the
29:20Packers gave Christian Watson this past off season.
29:24I think the injuries are completely in the past, and I think you're going to have a lot of league mates who are
29:28uncomfortable paying this sort of ADP price tag on a wide receiver who has burned them in multiple seasons because of failure to stay on an NFL field. But,
29:38when we talk about Christian Watson, there's a massive touchdown ceiling here.
29:42Could Christian Watson in 2026 look sort of like Terry McLaurin in 2024 and have that sort of a run out here? I think he
29:49could. Last year he was fifth in among all wide receivers in yards per route run.
29:55Talking about Luther Burden was third in yards per route run. Watson was fifth.
30:00And last year he had a career high in targets per route run as well. So, a lot of these metrics are sort of supporting
30:06Watson. And we talk about the massive touchdown ceiling where the touchdown rate has always been great. And when we take away the 2024 season and we look at
30:15the other three seasons collectively.
30:17So, maybe you know, really ramping up like come back from injury etc.
30:21Uh we take away that year and look at the other three seasons, the the touchdown ceiling and and sort of the
30:28the the touchdown percentages were really high. What's also interesting with Watson is we don't have a Dontayvion Wicks, we don't have Romeo
30:35Doubs. He's surrounded by Jayden Reed who never gets on the field in two wide receiver sets. Jayden Reed, a really talented player, but also sort of has to
30:43be in 11 personnel.
30:45And then Matthew Golden, who is super interesting, but last year really failed to do a whole lot as a rookie.
30:52Watson is the guy there. He's going to be on the field and basically be a full-time player. And when we mentioned
30:57Dubbs, we mentioned Dontayvion Wicks, sort of those frustrating wide receiver rotations that we associate with LaFleur offenses.
31:06Christian Watson has never had a higher than a 19% target share in any season as a pro. And a couple of his seasons he's
31:12had like 15, 17% target share.
31:15I think this year, based on some of the reports coming out of camp, we could end up seeing Christian Watson with like a 21% target share, 22% target
31:24share. That would be massive for him. So for me, Christian Watson, a really fun, high upside option for you in a range
31:32where if we can hit on a player that can crush their ADP in round five, round six, it's a huge, huge boost for us in
31:40fantasy.
31:41Continuing unknown upside, depending on your league format, these guys are going to go about the sixth round, and occasionally they can fall into the
31:51seventh, depending on where you're drafting.
31:54And it's a pair of running backs with different situations.
31:57You've got Jahmyr Gibbs, the rookie running back in Seattle, and then you've got Jonathan Brooks, the running back in Carolina.
32:05So with Jahmyr Gibbs, this is a simple bet.
32:08Was Jahmyr Gibbs drafted to be the Kenneth Walker replacement? If you believe that, then there is a window there for him to provide similar usage
32:18to what we saw with Kenneth Walker without Zach Charbonnet. Now, will George Holani mix in a little bit? Is Emanuel Wilson a little bit of a threat?
32:27Probably. But Jahmyr Gibbs could also get there early in the season with rushing yardage and with touchdowns. We talk about what Walker and Charbonnet
32:37were able to do collectively in terms of scoring touchdowns.
32:40J'Darian Price has that upside. Could we see a season from Price where he has like 950 to maybe 1,100 rushing yards and 10
32:50rushing touchdowns? I think we could. We talk about the lack of receiving production when he was at Notre Dame playing alongside Love, but by all
32:59accounts, Seattle thinks he can be an opportunistic pass catcher. Now, does that mean he's going to catch 50 passes?
33:05Absolutely not. But could he end up with just enough catches to give him a little bit of a boost um that they don't take
33:13him off the field in every single obvious situation? Maybe. But J'Darian Price, the the thing we're betting on is the explosiveness, the big play ability,
33:23and the touchdown equity in this offense without Zach Charbonnet. Now, could Zach Charbonnet be back earlier than anticipated? Sure. But right now, we
33:32don't have any clarity on that one. And Seattle's a team that wants to get back to the Super Bowl. They want to win
33:36another Super Bowl. So, if things are going right with J'Darian Price, they are not going to rush back Zach Charbonnet.
33:43Price has been beat up a little bit uh in terms of ADP, where I think there's been a lot of fear in the market. First,
33:49it was sort of with the George LaDawn stuff, Emanuel Wilson stuff. Now, you got Charbonnet stuff, but Seattle gets it right when when they're
33:56drafting. Like, if we start looking through teams that have drafted very, very well, Seattle's drafted very, very well. Look at what they were able to do
34:03last year. They drafted great Zable and Nick Emenwo both those guys were absolute studs on the way for them winning a Super Bowl. Go down the list
34:11and look at the Super Bowl roster. A lot of the big contributors were all drafted in Seattle. JSN, not a bad pick. Not a
34:17bad pick for for Seattle as well. So, this is a franchise that sort of gets it in terms of what they're doing
34:22drafting-wise. J'Darian Price just sitting there for drafters in the sixth, seventh round. Price could end up being a steal this year, and he also could be
34:30a player that struggles to give you a lot of production. I think there's a wide range here, but I am more bullish
34:36on Price than a lot of people doing fantasy rankings.
34:39I'm going to take shots on Jarion Price.
34:41I took him at the 612 in an NFFC draft just a couple days ago. Love that sort of value. A lot of times you're able to
34:48get Price as your running back three as well. Could give you an exceptional edge as sort of a flex value. The other
34:54player is Jonathan Brooks. We've been waiting on this one forever. Jonathan Brooks was the highest pedigreed running back coming out of the 2024 draft class.
35:02If he wasn't injured at Texas, he would have been a first-round pick that year. Talk about Bijan Robinson leaves Texas, Jonathan Brooks steps in,
35:11and Brooks was about the same as Bijan Robinson over a one-year sample size in terms of production and key metrics. Like Brooks
35:20was excellent on a team where he was surrounded by Sunday players on that offense, and he was a major focal point
35:27of it as a two-way back. And the two-way back is the operative word here, where Jonathan Brooks is not only a solid
35:34runner, but he is also a very good pass-catcher. And you got Dave Canales who's been a running back whisperer.
35:41Dave Canales talking up Jonathan Brooks a lot. And when we look at what Dave Canales was able to accomplish, we go back to Tampa Bay, that out of
35:49nowhere Rachaad White season where White was drafted in about the same range that year as Brooks is being drafted now.
35:57Rachaad White ends up finishing as like a top seven running back in PPR. We go back to Dave Canales's first year in
36:03Carolina where Chuba Hubbard finished as like a top 15 scorer at the running back position on exceptional volume. Then we go to last year where Rico Dowdle was
36:11one of the better waiver wire adds of the year at running back, or depending on your format, one of the better
36:16late-round running back picks you could have made, also with Dave Canales. So, Canales has talked about Brooks a lot.
36:22Much like Christian Watson in Green Bay, Carolina has stuck with Jonathan Brooks through all these injuries. Brooks is finally healthy. Year three breakouts
36:32are still street legal in 2026. We can still bet on year three breakouts and with Jonathan Brooks, we're getting potential for a very fun year three
36:40breakout. There's a great chance he's drafted higher next year. And then in terms of the runout, Chuba Hubbard is banged up and missing time. So, instead
36:51of a complete split week one, we are going to end up with Jonathan Brooks leading the backfield in a three-down role. Chuba Hubbard can obviously
37:00provide some utility. He's maybe a better in best ball type pick. And if you want to take shots on Chuba in round
37:0511, where he's falling to in your drafts, I'm not going to talk you out of that one. But, Jonathan Brooks is the
37:10back that I am targeting in Carolina. If you get him in round seven, extreme value. If you get him in round six, I
37:16think he can still pay off. I am betting on a Jonathan Brooks breakout season this year.
37:22Going a little bit lower on the list, trying to find unknown upside. Another running back that really stands out and depending on where you're drafting,
37:29maybe you're going to get this player in the eighth round, sometimes late seventh. But, we're talking about Blake Corum. And this is the first running
37:36back two we're talking about. But, last year Blake Corum took a big step forward in terms of year two. Kind of a zero year one. And
37:46much like Jonathan Brooks, comes out of that 2024 draft class. It's year three for him. This could be a massive breakout year for Blake Corum. Last year
37:54he had 145 carries, 746 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns. That's a 5.14 yards per carry. No receiving
38:04production whatsoever, but he had no fumbles lost on 145 carries. Reliable runner who can produce as a touchdown scorer. You talk about how Kyren
38:15Williams has sort of dominated everything last couple years. Like, fading Kyren has been detrimental to your wallet in fantasy football for the
38:22last couple years. But, there's been sort of a slow drip this off-season.
38:26Multiple beat reporters, coaches talking about we want to get two backs involved.
38:30We want to have more backs touching the ball. And I think that's a really testament to the team's trust level in
38:37Blake Corum. This is not just a contingent upside back. This is a back who I think can produce on a week-to-week basis. Then we look at the
38:44absolute mash unit where LA has a chance to be the number one defense in all of football. Could this be a situation
38:51where LA is in complete control in a lot of these games and they're looking to sort of run this game out, lean into the
38:57running game in the second half of of the games with Blake Corum getting a ton of touches? Could we see a run out for
39:03Blake Corum that even if Kyren Williams stays healthy, Blake Blake Corum gets you 875 to 950 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns even with Kyren Williams
39:15staying healthy?
39:17I think we could. Then we also get the the whole idea that if Kyren Williams were to miss time, Blake Corum would be
39:23a top-10 running back in in fantasy football period because you have the Sean McVay offense that's been a huge huge producer of fantasy football
39:32production at the running back spot. You have the LA Rams who know Blake Corum and trust him.
39:38Corum would absolutely smash in any week that Williams wasn't there.
39:42Uh Blake Corum really really interesting interesting pick for us and has multiple pathways to get there. And again, I think we could see a double-digit
39:53touchdown season from him.
39:55We look back at what he was able to do at Michigan. Like we talk about like like DeVonta Smith at Alabama.
40:01But, Blake Corum I mean, the numbers look fake when you look at his numbers at Michigan. Like they look fake and and Blake Corum was
40:11the focal point of the Michigan offense when they won the national title in a major way and he had like two
40:21unbelievable seasons. When we look at like the history of Michigan football, Blake Corum was maybe the best two-year run of any Michigan running back. I
40:30mean, he has to be. I'm not I'm not a college football historian, but when we look at what Blake Corum was able to
40:35accomplish at Michigan, I mean, just absolute silly stuff. 27 rushing touchdowns in 2023 with the national title season, 18 the year before. He had
40:4658 rushing touchdowns in essentially three full seasons. His freshman year he only played six games. Unbelievable production for Blake Corum there. 27
40:57touchdowns on the national title-winning team, 18 at in his previous season. I mean, it feels like a player that's like fast-tracked for at least a one huge
41:08fantasy season in the NFL if not multiple. Year three, this could be the breakout for not only Jonathan Brooks, but also for Blake Corum.
41:16The NFL season is right around the corner and it's time for survivor contest. RotoWire is partnering with Splash Sports for two survivor contest.
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41:29That's a $15 entry. Pick one NFL team to win straight up each week. No spread, no repeats. Then you've got a very cool
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41:40This one's player-based. Pick someone to score a touchdown. Passing touchdowns don't count. It's got to be rushing, receiving, or returns only. That's a $25
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42:14you're able to get him in like the eighth round in a lot of leagues.
42:17Two other players with unknown upside that sort of are trending towards being potentially impactful fantasy players this year. We'll mention them. Casey
42:28Canseco on and De'Shawn Stripling.
42:31Depending on your format, you're looking at like a ninth, 10th round, potentially eighth round valuation on these guys.
42:38Casey Canseco on sort of the drumbeats are there for him to have a Garrett Wilson-like rookie year in Cleveland. We have question marks about the
42:45quarterback play, but Casey Canseco on simply an electric talent and you're getting him a much cheaper price tag still than where you'd have to pay for
42:54like Carnell Tate. And we're getting the bad team discount when it comes to Casey Canseco on. I love Casey. I've talked
43:01about him on a number of shows. Consider him for this unknown upside. Could we see a scenario where Casey Canseco on
43:07has a rookie year that puts him into uh about Luther Burden territory, potentially round four, round five in 2027. I think we could. You also have
43:17the potential that 2027 a really good quarterback can end up in Cleveland. But if Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders can be the 25th uh best quarterback in the
43:26NFL this year collectively instead of the 32nd, then I think think that Casey can pay off in a major, major way. Tons
43:33of unknown upside with that profile.
43:36De'Shawn Stripling, an easy one as well.
43:38Unbelievable production we've seen in the NFL preseason. Looks like he's going to be on the field in two wide receiver sets a lot early in the year. I think
43:47Stripling makes a ton of sense in round nine. And in some leagues, if you can still get him in round 10,
43:53uh you know, absolutely a target there.
43:56But in three wide receiver formats like NFFC, he's an ADP rocket ship. But in leagues you can get him in like the
44:02eighth round, ninth round, Stripling could be a major value. You start talking about contingent upside. Mike Evans 32 plus, George Kittle 32 plus,
44:12Christian McCaffrey 30 years old. Deebo Samuel signed from Washington 30 plus.
44:19You've got Skribbling as the only young player that's going to get weekly usage in San Francisco. All it takes is one
44:26injury to an older 49er and then you're looking at Skribbling in sort of a 2023 Brandon Aiyuk-like role. We look at what
44:35Aiyuk was able to do and there's some been some beat reporters comparing Skribbling to Brandon Aiyuk in a positive way where Aiyuk had a 15 plus
44:43point per game season under Kyle Shanahan in sort of a role that Skribbling could be playing. Ricky Pearsall done for the year, that's gone.
44:52De'Jon Skribbling a really high upside and unknown upside target for you. Last player to mention Matthew Golden who completely beat up. We could have talked
45:01about Jaden Higgins, he's done for the year. So I want to talk about another year two wide receiver who could break
45:06out. A lot of people will laugh at this one. The Theo's on the fast guy. What's going on Theo? Look, Matthew Golden, we
45:12saw him last year, didn't do anything for me. But Matthew Golden's going to be on the field in two wide receiver sets
45:17in Green Bay. This is an offense that's going to have to be a little bit more pass-happy.
45:22We know Josh Jacobs has been the focal point for two straight years, but Green Bay, we've seen Jordan Love put up a
45:28huge fantasy season in previous years.
45:31Could Green Bay look to push it down field a little bit more? Golden also has that same contingent upside that Watson
45:37and Reed have where and Tucker Kraft for that matter. All four of these guys, it's going to be highly consolidated in
45:43terms of targets between the four of them and if one goes down, they all benefit. But Matthew Golden, first round pick in 2025, has a chance for a
45:52breakout year. There's so many more players we could talk about and we're going to try to do it all the way up
45:57until kickoff. We're dropping a show a day every single day in August. Actually more than that cuz I'm doing these live
46:03drafts, too.
46:05RotoWire fantasy football podcast, RotoWire YouTube. Make sure you subscribe to both. If you're enjoying them, uh hit that like button. If you're
46:12listening on the podcast, do us a favor, give us a review, a five-star review.
46:16Doesn't cost you anything, helps us out a lot. Huge shout-out to the RotoWire audience who's embraced my work over these last 2 months. I am so excited
46:24about what we're going to do in the regular season here. But hey, we got a couple more weeks to go. We are If
46:29you're drafting this week, it's time to execute the plan. It's time to crush it.
46:34You've been putting in the work all off-season. Let's execute it. Let's go win some of these leagues. Let's make some money. And I'm going to see you
46:40back here soon.
