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0:38Let's talk ADP though. Let's get after it. Malik Neighbors injury optimism is fully here and Neighbors is starting to steam up. We've seen Neighbors
0:48occasionally in some of these FFPC main events, 350s. We've seen Neighbors occasionally appear inside of round two.
0:58It's late round two, but it's still extremely significant going very closely to guys like Nico Collins, Rashi Rice,
1:08and not that far off of players like AJ Brown and Drake London. Now, the overall ADP for Neighbors right now is mid
1:16third, but that's a huge huge rise.
1:19Completely written off uh earlier in the offseason where Neighbors was falling and falling. We were seeing him going like the late fourth. Now, if you're
1:27holding those late fourth bags of Malik Neighbors, you're feeling fantastic. And I think this ADP most likely trends up even more as long as the injury optimism
1:38stays very positive. If we have a setback, you could see neighbors sort of settle in, but I don't see a scenario
1:45where he's falling ever again. The guy looks incredible. Looks incredibly elusive and quick and explosive like we're used to seeing Malik Neighbors
1:54when he's healthy. It's an elite wide receiver and I think people really want to believe in the edge that he's presenting. Even if there's a chance
2:01that he still misses a few games to start the season, I think drafters are going to be optimistic with this one and
2:09continue to push him up in ADP.
2:12Again, the second round exposures to him, it's not like that that's settled in, but you're going to see some one-off drafts where he's going to go as high as
2:21like the 208, 209. Really settling in sort of at that 23 turn level, but again, I think nowhere for this thing to
2:30go but up. His high in recent drafts, according to fantasymojo.com, over the most recent days, the highest we've seen him go is at the 206 in a
2:40$350 entry. Big gorilla draft. That's over on FFPC. Uh main event, I think his highs a little bit lower than that, but
2:48again, get used to seeing Malik Neighbors very much inside of round two.
2:52one wide receiver that's starting to slip a little bit and this is an interesting one there. It's Drake London and it's very small but Drake London is
3:01going behind AJ Brown in a lot of these drafts now where earlier in the offseason it was Drake London sort of
3:07ahead. Drake London is still very much a second round pick but you're starting to see Drake London fall to the 23 turn
3:15area. So to give you a reference point, two three turn last year at this time you were talking about guys like Lad
3:21Maki who was a major failure at ADP and Jackson Smith and Jigba early third rounder was like a league winner there.
3:30So Drake London there there's been a lack of clarity at the quarterback position when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons and they signed Cooper Rush
3:40which I thought was notable. Um it's it's up in the air, but Drake London's also been a 16 and a half uh points per
3:48game player for consecutive seasons.
3:52It's really it's unfortunate that we don't have some like huge quarterback boost or at least two healthy quarterbacks sort of going at it where
4:02you've got Michael Penn Jr., you've got Tua Tonga Aloa, and then you now have Cooper Rush uh signed. So I don't know
4:10what's going on with Atlanta. I don't know who will be the starter in week one, but Drake London starting to fall
4:15to interesting levels. You're going to start seeing some of these Jir Gibbs and Drake London combination teams. The other interesting scenario here is do
4:24drafters want to lean in and have Drake London with Bejian Robinson, especially the 102 drafter saying, you know, Drake London's there at the 211. Yeah, they're
4:34both incredible players and Bejian, we're not trying to talk you off Bejon or anything, right? Like this, but having access to two Atlanta Falcons,
4:42all even two elite ones, does that necessarily pay off? You could run into some weird weeks there. But Drake London, I think when you're talking
4:51about combining him with a Jir Gibbs, that sounds really good. When you talk about the ability to combine him with Jamir Gibbs and someone else and get
5:01access to Drake London occasionally at like the 301, you could have an incredible build with a lot of players sort of in play at that 211 spot, 22 212
5:10spot. You've got Drake London also potentially you could combine him with a Jamar Chase. A 103 Jamar Chase 210 Drake
5:21London start could be an incredible wide receiver wide receiver start. Same thing with Pukanakua and London. So London provides with some interesting builds
5:30when he falls to this part of the second round, but it looks very unlikely that you're going to have to make a decision
5:36on London early in the second. You're going to get access to him late in the second round. And if there's pessimism
5:41at the quarterback spot, he could end up being like the 301, the 302 when we get to late in the summer. Very uh
5:50significant change of events events when it comes to Drake London. talking about Bashial Tutin. Bashel Tutin is starting to move up. I uh put a post on X about
5:59this where I said I thought we'd start seeing a lot of Bashel Tutins going in round two, excuse me, round four. We're
6:07seeing it. Bashel Tutin is sort of living in round four in a lot of these drafts. His most recent ADP in main
6:14events is the 411 according to fantasymojo.com.
6:18411 for Bachel Tutin. That's significant because now he's going ahead of David Montgomery. He's going ahead of Quinn Sean Judkins, ahead of DeAndre Swift,
6:26and well ahead of Trayvon Henderson.
6:29Henderson is starting to fall. We're seeing some occasional Trayvon Henderson sixth round exposures. His ADP average is the late fifth, but Toutin and
6:38Trayvon Henderson are sort of headed in opposite directions right here. And Tutin is also sort of brushing up against uh Travis Travis ETN where we
6:48could see a scenario where Bashel Tutin moves up and is like running back 18 uh running back 19 locked in by the time we
6:56get to the end of August. There's a lot of optimism with him in this Liam Cohen offense and and Bashel Tutin the the
7:03vibes are are very good right now. You also have a lot of fantasy analysts who have actually come on my show. uh Ryan
7:09Heath, JJ Zachares, guys who are flag planning Basel Tutin as like their preferred running back target period, like the one that they want at ADP cost
7:20this year as a player they're willing to sort of flag plant. So, I think there's a lot of um optimism not only from the
7:26fantasy football industry, but also from high stakes drafters and also Jacksonville beat reporters. So, it's like a perfect storm. Basel Tutin
7:34starting to rise up. We saw the Stfan Diggs signing with Washington and a little update of where these commanders are going and where I think they'll end
7:44up. So Terry McLaren, it's been sort of the summer of Terry McLaren where it's been incredible optimism for him. We've seen him go as high as like the three
7:53four turn early fourth round. Right now his ADP is the late fourth round. I think you're going to see him drop to
8:00the late fifth round after the Stfan Diggs signing. I think he'll settle in around where Christian Watson, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams go. Uh he's about
8:0810 spots ahead of those players now. DJ Moore, that similar level. So McLaren, I think, is going to get leapfrogged by
8:16Luther Burton. He already sort of has in a lot of these one-off drafts, but I think he'll go behind Luther Burton. I
8:22think he'll go behind DJ Moore, probably behind Mike Evans, and then he's going to probably go alongside of Christian Watson, Devonte Adams. If I had to guess
8:31sort of where he ends up in main events when we get to maybe the middle of the month, I think we're probably looking at
8:38Terry McLaren at the 510 as opposed to like the 411. That's just sort of I think it's going to be a slow drip and I
8:45think drafters are going to push Stfan Diggs way way up after this signing. He gets into an offense that drafters are
8:52willing to bet on. He's also in an offense where he's the clear number two.
8:57I think if you were holding out hope for Chika Conquo, this one at being being the number two target, the Diggs signing
9:04kind of crushes that narrative. Stefan Diggs is usually a 20% target share or so guy. Had over a,000 receiving yards last year, averaged over 12 points per
9:14game in PPR leagues last year, and I think we're going to see that again this year in Washington. His ADP now is in
9:21the 11th round. I think we're going to see Stfan Diggs uh comfortably in the ninth round. I think when you look at
9:28sort of the resistance points of players he's going to go up against, will he go ahead of Jell Robinson, Jaden Reed,
9:36Michael Wilson, and be sort of neck andneck with guys like Josh DS potentially into the Courtland Sutton range. I think that's where I'd be
9:45comfortable taking Diggs. I'm going to move him way up in my rankings. You can get access to those over at rotowire.com. again, use the code
9:52theo20. But Diggs for me, it's he's in a good spot and it's a homecoming. The vibes are great. Played at Good Council
10:00High School, which is Montgomery County, Maryland. He's going to be playing uh football for the Commanders this year.
10:06They play in PG County, Maryland. So, it's like right next door to one another. Um Diggs was obviously a a fantastic player at University of
10:13Maryland, fantastic player at Good Council High School. now he sort of is going to potentially end his career in Washington. It's a great run out for
10:22him. It's a great run out for Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels has been been going off the board as the quarterback five. That's about a late eighth round
10:30ADP in FFPC where all the quarterbacks get pushed down. I think he's going to rise up. I don't know if he's
10:36necessarily going to leapfrog Joe Burrow in terms of like the quarterback hierarchy, but I do think right now there's a gap between where Burrow and
10:44Daniels are going. I think that gap is going to close very quickly. So, it's about almost a round gap between Daniels
10:52and Burrow. Burrow's like a late seventh round ADP. Daniels is like a late eighth round ADP. When we're looking at this
10:59main event ADP recently, I think this is going to not do anything to Burrow. I think he'll sit sit still sort of where
11:06he is. There's been nothing negative regarding Joe Burrow whatsoever. But I think you're going to see Jaden Daniels up to like uh let's call it like the 801
11:16802 up from like where we're seeing him at like the 8 808 to 811 range. A slight difference, but still for drafters sort
11:23of waiting on quarterback gets a little bit more interesting if you're specifically targeting Jaden Daniels.
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12:28seeing another wide receiver that's creeping up in ADP and that's Jordan Tyson. Terrific vibes with this Saints offense where there's been nothing but
12:36optimism with Chris Ave, Tyler Shuck, Kell Moore in year two as a head coach and this passing game in general. The
12:46offensive line the beat reporters are talking about this is the best offensive line for New Orleans in quite some time and I think the whole offense is going
12:53to benefit. Jordan Tyson completely healthy right now and he's starting to creep up into the late sixth round.
13:00You're seeing one off drafts where Tyson's going in the late sixth round.
13:04Um most of the time you're seeing him go in round seven, but it's a very early round seven. I think we could see him
13:10settle in and maybe flip-flop with potentially get neck andneck with Carnell Tate. Carnell Tate right now has
13:19a sixthround price tag mid6throunder.
13:23I think by the time we get to Las Vegas and the high stakes drafts in in Vegas for FFPC and for NFC, I think Tyson and
13:31Tate are going to be going really alongside of one another. We'll probably see Jordan Tyson leapfrog Marvin Harrison Jr. soon. Could he leaprog
13:40Brian Thomas Jr.? That one seems maybe a little bit harder, but he's neck andneck with him right now. And then of course
13:46Carnell Tate where there's just a lot more optimism with the Saints offense than there is the Titans offense. Both were top 10 picks. Tate has the upside
13:57to be the number one target in that passing game, whereas Tyson is probably the number two, but Wandel Robinson also will see his fair share of targets. It's
14:05really an interesting conversation. I think they're both really, really good players. I love getting access to Jordan Tyson in round seven. Pack your bags
14:12right now because the price of a brick is going up. Keep it going here. Let's go to uh running back. And one notable
14:21player competition on the same team is the Pittsburgh Steelers running back situation where you've got Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowel and now you've got almost
14:32around a little bit more than around sometimes difference between the two of them. Jaylen Warren is starting to move up in ADP. I think drafters are start
14:42starting becoming very comfortable with him. He's running back 27 in ADP overall. So in most drafts, that's the late sixth round. We're rarely seeing
14:52him in round seven. And we've even occasionally seen him go in the late fifth round. And the thing about drafts this year is drafters are so aggressive
15:01when it comes to the running back position that occasionally there's like a gravitational pull where some of these guys that are the high-end RB3s get
15:10pulled up towards the RB2 range, especially when there's an RB run that sort of wipes out the position. and Jaylen Warren, you know, last year.
15:20Jaylen Warren, it's it's sort of a a player that people aren't really thinking about, but last year he had a really good season. He had 958 rushing
15:30yards, which was a personal best for him, six touchdowns, and he had 40 catches. And I think the catches are the
15:37operative word here because Rico Dattle is a major threat to the rushing hierarchy in Pittsburgh. But Jaylen Warren is should uh inherit a good deal
15:47of the passing game work at the running back position that was held by Kenneth Gainwell last year. And we all know how
15:53successful Gainwell was last year playing alongside Aaron Rogers. Look for Warren to sort of stay in this range. I think he's going to be going to maintain
16:02a sixth round price tag as we draft throughout August with a chance that he could move up to the early sixth round
16:09if we have a little bit more clarity about his role. Drafters always like Jaylen Warren. I know I've been a Jaylen
16:14Warren guy in in several seasons. It's a pretty expensive price tag for him this year, but if you're going hero RB and
16:21you're looking to catch up, I think Warren is is a fun click when we're talking about that late late sixth round. Not a guy you want to reach for,
16:29but I think structurally he helps you get there. And on the flip side, I don't mind Rico Dowel as well. I think Dow is
16:36a interesting bet because we know how dominant he can be and the if there's a little bit of a delta between the two of
16:44them, Dow could end up being uh a value if he ste keeps getting pushed down in drafts. So, we'll keep an eye on this
16:51Pittsburgh situation. Dowel at running back 31, Jaylen Warren at running back 27, but again, we've got more than a round difference between the two of them
17:02in ADP. Talking about the wide receiver room in San Francisco, Debo Samuel is a riser right now. Debo signed with San
17:12Francisco, ressigned with San Francisco after a one-year stint in Washington, and we're starting to see Debo go off the board in the early 11th round, but
17:21he's had some one-off drafts where he's gone much, much higher. I think there's it's sort of the eye of the beholder
17:28when it comes to Debo Samuel. There's some people that say, "Hey, maybe he's cooked. Maybe Dejon Stribbling is the one we want. I like Stribbling. I've
17:36been mixing him in. But then there's a whole another segment of drafters who look at Debo Samuel and they're like, "Okay, we have a reunion between Kyle
17:43Shanahan and Debo Samuel." And guess what? Debo is on track to have a pretty significant role here, including the manufactured rush attempts, which we've
17:53always seen with him with Shanahan. So Debo Samuel has sort of settled in here and I don't think this ADP is going to
18:00move. It seems a pretty solid that he's going to be an early 11th round pick.
18:06You're talking about him going alongside guys like Xavier Worthy, Casey Conpsion, alongside guys like Jaden Higgins. So, there's some upside bets next to Debo.
18:16He's easily the oldest wide receiver in this range now that we anticipate Stfan Diggs moving up, but Debo is a player
18:23that I think a lot of managers are going to gravitate towards when they're trying to play catch-up at wide receiver and
18:29look for some viability. Samuel averaged double-digit points per game in PPR scoring last year. And again, with the Ricky Persol injury and the market not
18:39fully getting behind Dejon dribbling, Samuel has quote unquote some outs when it comes to the high stakes drafters.
18:46One other player we're seeing uh move up in ADP is Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason, we've seen him go in the eighth round in
18:54some of these higher stakes drafts. It's not that's not where his average ADP is, but like we talked about with some of
19:01the other running backs, Jordan Mason is in that like next group of running backs, those high-end running back fours that are brushing up against running
19:11back three land. And Jordan Mason, we've seen him go as high as the early eighth round in main events. His average ADP is
19:18in the ninth round, but he never really seems to fall out of the ninth round anymore. occasionally the 10th round for
19:24Mason, but in the drafts I've been in from the FFPC, we've usually seen Mason go in round nine. So, the days of
19:31getting Jordan Mason in like the double-digit rounds seem limited. Uh there's been a lot of optimism when it comes to spec the beat reporters
19:40speculating that the running game is going to be built around him this year.
19:44Consecutive seasons with 750 plus rushing yards for Mason. And we've seen Mason uh have that that early run in 2024 when the backfield was his own in
19:55San Francisco and he was like a running back one for the first 5 weeks or so of the season when Christian McAffrey was
20:01banged up. So we'll keep an eye on Jordan Mason, but there's a becoming a little bit of a delta here between him
20:07and Aaron Jones. And then drafters do like Deont Claybourne when we get into like round 15. Minnesota backfield is kind of up for grabs and no one's super
20:17expensive, but Mason is starting to get more expensive. So, if you want Jordan Mason, be prepared to grab him inside of
20:24round nine. And if he's part of your foundational strategy this year and you're really betting on Mason, be prepared to use your eighth round
20:31selection on him. Josh Jacobs and it's sort of no news is good news here. Um it's there's been all sorts of
20:39positivity with Marshon Lloyd as well as like an upside handcuff and the beat reporters are speculating that Marshon Lloyd could have a weekly role, but Josh
20:47Jacobs is moving up and Josh Jacobs, we've seen him sort of starting to live inside of the late third round of
20:56drafts. uh his ADP right now is still the 34 turn, but if we look at some of the oneoff selections, he's been
21:04selected in a late second round ADP in a in a big gorilla draft. And then in in main events, again, this the big gorilla
21:12is the $350 entry. And the main event, we're talking about $2,200 entry. I got this poll from uh fantasymojo.com, but we've seen some oneoff drafts where
21:24Josh Jacobs is starting to go very very highly. And I think drafters are just used to taking Josh Jacobs here. So
21:30Jacobs, you know, the the early fourth round for main events, but in the big gorilla, you're starting to see a little
21:36bit more variance. I think we could see him trend up to the late third round. If we have no bad news throughout the month
21:46and we get to like the end of August, I think Josh Jacobs drafters are going to become a little bit more comfortable
21:51with him. That's it for today. We're going to do more ADP updates. Also, look for live drafts here right on the
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