0:00football intel you need to know from high-stakes draft Theo Gramlich Rotowire's lead fantasy analyst joined today by Darren Armani the owner of
0:09fantasy mojo.com the leading source of high-stakes fantasy football ADP anywhere. Darren's going to give us a number of tips strategies and we're
0:19going to talk about players moving up and down in ADP as we're about 2 weeks away from the start of the NFL season.
0:25Darren we got to jump off the top here by talking about Ashton Jeanty and we are recording this on Tuesday afternoon.
0:33So we had the whole injury scare. It was sort of like you you reference the prayer circle and it was one of the
0:40wildest few hours we've ever seen in terms of player movement.
0:45Unlike anything I've ever seen in fantasy Darren like we're talking about a player who is locked in at the one two
0:50turn and some of the variance we saw in some of these drafts was unheard of your take on the whole Jeanty situation
0:58and when the dust is sort of settled here where is he starting to go at in drafts?
1:04>> Yeah that was that was really crazy because it kind of came out of the blue and and the lack of information
1:10was just people sort of like they went over the deep end with that and like like you mentioned like I think it was
1:16literally the prayer circle that like sent people that they went nuts and everybody was like I'm just taking him out of my ranks like
1:25nobody wanted to project so if if you if you if you're a guy who like likes to take on risk then that was
1:31an opportunity for you to to get in drafts and maybe try and scoop some value and we saw him going as late as I
1:38think it was the 12th round in in the big gorilla and he went in the eighth round in in the main event in one draft so there
1:46was literally like an 8-hour window where people who were in the drafts kind of like pulled some massive well it's it's to be determined what
1:54happens but those are some nice values that you know, you rarely see something like that. But right now, um the ADP I did the ADP
2:04from yesterday.
2:05So, it excludes like the day of craziness. So, in the drafts that we're going off yesterday in the FFPC uh big gorilla, he was going at the
2:17207.
2:19That was his ADP. So, you know, you get some highs and some lows, but that was But prior to the injury, he was going at
2:25the 110. So, he's He's now like dropped about eight eight spots. Um so, instead of like the end of the first round, he's
2:32going towards the back half uh of the second round. So, so that's significant, and he's pretty much held there. Um but, you know, we'll just have to wait
2:40and see as uh as they're get more clarity on his injury to see um you know, what happens. And the thing
2:46to keep in mind is with with FFPC that a lot of people kind of gloss over is it's a very short regular season, right? You
2:54have 12 games.
2:56So, if he's out like the first four games, that's still significant in this particular format, cuz if you don't get out of the gate quick, I mean, it it may
3:04not matter if he comes back strong. You could literally be out of the playoffs by that point, you know?
3:09>> Yeah, it's a it's a great point, and I think that if you're in a regular sort of redraft uh home league, if you're
3:15playing on Yahoo, playing on Sleeper, those sort of places, getting a discounted Ashton Jeanty is probably easier uh to to manage than an FFPC like
3:25like you said, FFPC with those 12 weeks and then that 2-week playoff, uh it might be it's more difficult for you to
3:32sort of get into that playoff. And then, Darren, we also have to talk about if you draft Jeanty, and I think Justin
3:38Herzik, who I recorded with as well recently, made a great point that he's looking at like the Kalshi markets for like does he play week one or not? I
3:46think it's like a 38% chance they said that he plays week one. So, we've got kind of like trust the money on that
3:51one. I personally think it's probably going to be like 2 weeks. Just my initial gut reaction. And again, this is not like a medical, but it's sort of
3:59like the things the team's not saying, the things the team's is is saying, what Gentry's saying. But they're going to be
4:07I think a little bit cautious. This was a franchise player for them. They're not going to like completely rush him back.
4:13And then do we end up with sort of a ramp up period? So for me, I've moved him a little bit lower than where the
4:18FFPC drafters are taking them. And you mentioned the big gorilla, that's the $350 entry main event, about $2200 entry.
4:26But they're both for a million dollar grand prize. How about Malik Nabers, who's been moving up and up and up?
4:33Feels like a player that maybe when we get to the very end, when we're in Vegas, we could start seeing maybe some
4:39first round Malik Nabers. Feels like he's trending towards playing week one.
4:44What are you seeing in the ADP markets, Darren?
4:46>> So I benchmarked the ADP again from yesterday's drafts, and then I look back at the week right up to the first
4:54preseason game. So that gives you the the the sort of the the trends as preseason has moved along. And surprisingly, Nabers he had he had recovered a lot of
5:04his lost value leading up to that first preseason game. So he was going at the 3-4 before the first preseason game hit. And
5:12now he's at the 3-1. So it's it's a little bit of a bump, it's three spots.
5:15But if you look further back, the the the the prime time to get Malik Nabers was July. His July ADP was 405. So if
5:25you're one of those guys who drafts all over the entire draft season, and you were buying Nabers then, those are the guys who sort of have that
5:33that that edge with Nabers are the ones who were drafting in July and just grabbing them in the fourth round. So
5:38that would be, you know, like you know, like almost like a round and a half between now and and in July.
5:45>> I've had this conversation with a couple of really uh uh sharp high stakes uh players and Darren's a really successful
5:51high stakes player as well as providing this unbelievable website uh fantasymojo.com that you guys hear me reference I've across multiple sites here. I'm
6:01like a hype man for you Darren at this point because I use it I use your product all the time. It really is great
6:06stuff. Um but one question I kind of have for you in terms of strategy is there's going to be managers who are
6:13saying, you know, I I I'm not a high high volume guy but maybe I do have an NFFC Prime Time or an FFPC Main Event. I
6:21have that one big league that I draft towards the end of August, maybe that first couple days of September that I
6:28put a huge chunk of money in or maybe I like drafting in the 350s in those contests and I I do three or four of
6:35them, but it's this time of year.
6:37Do you think that there is like there's certain high stakes guys that'll say I'm not going to get that edge on Malik
6:44Nabers because like you referenced, there's going to be some high volume guys with maybe five, six, 10 shares of him in the late third and the fourth.
6:54Do you think it's sort of like throw that out the window you've still got to win your league and it's going to end up
7:00being you could potentially have a unique there's unique rosters for the managers who drafted in July, you could have a unique roster here and just don't
7:07worry about it or are you one of those people that says, yeah, you know, maybe I shouldn't pull the trigger on a guy
7:13when there's all these fourth round shares of him if I have to take him at like the 203?
7:17>> Yeah, you you have to especially with the Main Event. Like there there is significant prize money to be had in
7:23winning your league, which is different than than the big gorilla. The big gorilla you you have to like win the the
7:28league championship to really get any kind of ROI back on a on a big gorilla league. Main Event you could come out,
7:33you know, top points, you could have the best record. Regardless you're you're going to you could pocket $5,000 regardless of what you do in the league
7:41um league championships.
7:43But, I'm of the mindset if you're a guy who's just doing two or three leagues, you kind of are better off waiting kind
7:51of till the end to so you don't hit a landmine. Like like say this Gentry thing. Like say it was like significant and you had one
7:58league you're doing one main event and you drafted it in July and that's all you were doing. And if you had Gentry
8:03and then if he was significantly hurt, like you're kind of like that's bad, right? But, it >> Very bad.
8:09>> If you're drafting if you're maxing out the tournament, like you you should be drafting like throughout the entire draft season. So, I would say if you're
8:15a a um you know, a low volume drafter, kind of wait towards the end. And the best time Theo to draft teams is the
8:22Draft-A-Thon.
8:24The big gorilla, I cannot wait for Labor Day weekend when when the masses just pour into the draft rooms like draft on a Saturday night when they have
8:35a few drinks in them and not not because the draft is so easy.
8:40It's well, not easy, but like they're they're softer. It's the waivers. The waiver wires runs are just they're so relaxing. Like as the year goes on, you
8:49got guys who like don't even know how the bidding system works and they don't know how fab works. It's just it's it's
8:55just the better. So, get in your uh get in your Draft-A-Thon leagues for sure.
8:59>> Yeah, I'm going to be drafting some teams this weekend. I have a a team I'm splitting with Dan Williamson. We draft.
9:04I'm doing a a B Bag Betoba one on Friday night. So, I'm yeah, I'm drafting. I talked to my wife today. She gave me the
9:09green light to do one more draft on Saturday. So, uh we'll see maybe a Saturday afternoon one as well, Daren. And we got a word
9:16for those people that sort of show up out of the woodwork, tourists.
9:19>> Yes. Those that's tour it's tourist season and I guess we're the locals and we like we like making a little money
9:25off the tourists. That's just how it is uh in societies across the world and certainly in the high stakes streets.
9:31Talk about my guy Casey Conception. Uh I didn't really I put a couple names on the paper just cuz I'm really
9:37interested. Uh Scott Barrett and I set the FFPC main event high for him in a league where wide receivers are flying
9:44off the board. I feel like that's kind of where we're headed in Vegas. We're going to see more of those seventh,
9:49eighth round values for him. But I'm in all these $125 best balls as well in FFPC and I still keep finding value for
9:56him. Feels like a little bit of a disconnect between the best ball market and like the higher stakes leagues.
10:03Where are you at with Casey and what are you seeing with him in your research?
10:07>> So, I think the more of a dynasty guy you are, the more you have a bias towards like a guy
10:14like Casey Concepcion. I'm less of a dynasty guy.
10:18Um and and I look at as, you know, there's a bad quarterback situation in Cleveland. So, I like Concepcion, but I'm not really willing to jump ADP as a
10:27guy that I have to have. Um just personally speaking. So, but in in the big gorilla yesterday, he was going at
10:33the 903.
10:35And he was going at the 1101 prior to the uh the first preseason game. So, he's up he's up around two rounds in
10:42that span. And actually at this point, if you if you just um rank the rookies as to where they're being drafted, he's
10:49the third wide receiver rookie wide receiver off the board now. It it goes Tate and then Stribling. Like who would who would have seen this coming? The top
10:56three receivers are going to be Tate, yeah, we know, and then Stribling, and then Casey Concepcion. Tyson and Lemon like they're like sort of like forgotten
11:03for now.
11:05>> Yeah, it's wild times. Stribling keeps moving up and up and up. Even today we we heard a little bit report about Mike
11:11Evans with the groin injury. Uh I think Stribling is sort of here to stay. And Darren, we have People love when I It's
11:17become a drink drinking game on my my shows, but we also have the free look for Stribling. If Stribling catches a
11:22touchdown pass, his ADP's going to go up even more. Or if Mike Evans just doesn't play or looks kind of cooked. Um or I
11:30should say looks slow looks slow out the gate. It looks affected by injury, not necessarily cooked. I think Stribling has room to run and sort of move up a
11:37little more. Um, Casey Concepcion, I feel sort of seen when you say it's the dynasty guys. Uh, I just updated my
11:43dynasty rankings over at RotoWire. You can use the code Theo35 and see those.
11:47Uh, I mean, Casey Concepcion's moved way up in my dynasty rankings, way up in my regular PPR rankings. Very, very high on
11:54him.
11:55Any other notable ADP risers that you're seeing in your research?
12:00>> Uh, so the the biggest risers over that time span of yesterday through the the first uh, week of preseason, Jacoby Lane
12:08is is the biggest riser. He's up almost six rounds. Mike Washington. Washington was already rising before the Gentilly thing. So, I mean, it's just like it
12:18they threw gasoline on the fire for that guy. Then it's Stribling. I'm just going to read off names. Cyrus Allen, Caleb
12:24Douglas, Keenan Allen. Now, there's a a couple other guys that are interesting because they weren't they're they're risers technically, but they weren't being
12:33drafted much. So, their ownership in these tournaments is is sort of low.
12:37That's Darren Waller, Devon Achane. Like that it's not a fancy name, but he could do something. He could be very uh, productive the first
12:44three, four games.
12:46Um, and Najee Harris. There's a lot of of of activity around him as well. So, though that's another sort of game
12:52theory thing is like there's not you have all these teams who don't even have shares of those guys.
12:57And probably more in Best Ball cuz you won't have access to them. But, those are going to be big first waiver wire
13:03run names as well.
13:05>> Yeah, and that's a great point on the first waiver wire run. Jacoby Lane to me, obviously the leagues where Stribling's available, uh, I think I
13:13think they're still few and far between because he was a second rounder. I'd be surprised if there were really any. Of
13:18course, you have to comb through your league. Um, make sure the guys didn't slip through the crack. But, I started putting in cuz I have so many teams,
13:27I've been starting to get my waiver wire bids together. I did it this weekend. Um and Jacoby Lane is available in so many
13:34of those early ones. He feels like a player that's going to get a significant uh waiver wire bids in that preseason
13:41run. Uh Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglas, those guys feel like they could also get a a pretty decent uh bid. Care to guess
13:48on what Jacoby Lane will go for in some of these leagues? Darren, you've been doing this a long time. When you sort of
13:54look at like the steam with the player, the chance for an every down role from the beginning of the season. Now you've
14:00got Rashod Bateman with some off-the-field stuff. Uh your thoughts on Jacoby Lane and if you're a a preseason waiver wire bidder, what you would
14:07anticipate he sort of goes for.
14:10>> So, I I I have a system of determining what to bid on players that's first uh waiver wire. And what
14:20I've done is I've gone back in history and I've I've mapped the the um the bid amounts for players that first waiver run based upon where
14:30they're going at ADP when the season ends. So, I I literally have a system and this is like if this is
14:36one of the one of the features on the site that I get a lot of positive uh feedback on is people are like that
14:44helped us so much that like you gave us basically you predicted what the prices will be. And they're it's pretty good.
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15:48>> But if we look at Jacoby Lane, so he is going 13th round.
15:55So, if I look at my uh I got to find my page. So, 13th round for wide receiver in the big gorilla,
16:05that is about a $200 bid. So, that's what you should expect like he'll be that that'll be like the mean um bid
16:12amount for him cuz because he's going to 13th round. Now, if he keeps going up, then that price will go up and we still
16:17got 2 weeks to go. But that's that's ballpark what I think he would go for um if it it >> Yeah, that's about I mean, that's just
16:24sort of like my my my feel and and doing waivers a lot myself. I thought I think he'll be somewhere in that 19 to 25%
16:31range. Uh definitely a name to keep an eye on. Uh Allen and Douglas I think will also go for for decent amounts. Uh
16:38and then you bring up Waller, Valdes-Scantling, Najee, those guys can slip through the cracks, but will be interesting to see because uh Tracy's
16:45sort so buried and there's just not a lot of big running back names right now uh in these pre-potential preseason runs. How about some ADP fallers? Does
16:53anybody stand out to you as a player that continues to lose value? I mean, obviously guys like Jordan Tyson stand out in a major way, but any sort of
17:02maybe non-obvious guys?
17:03>> Uh Travis Homer is is falling. He's he's down about three rounds through through the preseason. So, sentiment on him just
17:10like it's continuing to sour in terms of his, you know, uh productivity at wide receiver. Um Camara's down, he got hurt. Pacheco is
17:20down.
17:21Tyron Tracy has has suddenly fallen out of favor. That was a guy a lot of people were accumulating and then now like he
17:27missed one block and that like ruined his whole outlook somehow.
17:32Um and then Omar Cooper obviously, yeah.
17:35>> Yeah, I mean Tracy I I I drafted a team with Jared Smola who I knew also consumes your content and we were just
17:42like I guess we kind of have to take him here and then I think we hit the fumble I sent Jerry a
17:47message during the game I'm like we need to trade man. We need to trade her.
17:50Tracy might be me headed to the waiver wire and cut him.
17:54Pacheco's interesting. I think the Travis Hunter is also interesting considering Jacoby Myers is dealing with a thumb injury.
18:01There's just people that just don't want to draft Hunter. I think for me it's if you draft him, what do you do with him?
18:08Because what like obviously he could get on the field and we want to see the snap share week one.
18:13If it's a surprising snap share then he's an awesome player to draft in that range, but even if he like has a let's
18:20say he has a touchdown, but he plays like a very low snap percentage, then he maybe he could get you in trouble if you
18:25try to throw him in your lineup as like a chase upside type flex and then you've got him on your on your team and you're
18:32it's one player who you feel like you don't want to cut, but it's preventing you from attacking the waiver wire early
18:39and Darren you've done this for a long time to know like week one waivers, week two waivers, those are always great runs
18:45for us in terms of number of players that sort of stick on the team for 10 plus weeks. So I don't know Travis
18:50Hunter's a really really interesting one for sure.
18:53Let's talk about stacks cuz I think one of the best things that you offer on your site, there's so many like tools on
19:00your site, but it's the stack finder where you can sort of plug in your guy and see how common it is. You can also
19:07see multiple player stack correlation. I could see if I have like the only build with this player, this player, and this
19:13player in like the first three rounds or maybe three teammates. There's so many ways to play it, and you can do it for
19:19multiple formats.
19:21When you look at stacks, and let's say big gorilla, I don't know, main event, whatever whatever you want to do here.
19:27What are some of the more common stacks uh that you're seeing managers sort of form in these redraft leagues?
19:33>> So, the the number one stack in the big gorilla in the main event right now is is Burrow-Chase.
19:40And it's a lot cheaper than it used to be, right? So, I think people are just sort of um gravitating towards that. And
19:46actually they they're actually the top three are the same. So, it's Burrow-Chase, Herbert-Maconkey is number two.
19:53Actually, the percentage is So, 32% of the leagues, there's the Burrow-Chase.
19:58Then it kind of drops. Then it goes to 24% have the Herbert-Maconkey. And then Caleb Williams-Luther Burden is number three at 23%. Now, I should say stacking
20:08is way more prevalent in the best ball tournament. So, the the Burrow-Chase stack in the best ball tournament is is like 5% higher. Um actually, the number
20:19one stack in the best ball tournament is Prescott-Lamb. It's 40% of the leagues have that Prescott-Lamb stack.
20:26But, I mean, you don't you don't get like a 40% stack in in the redraft format. I'm not even sure why that is.
20:31Maybe you just have like more Maybe the best ball mind is is more like stack focused than than the redraft. I guess I
20:37I'd never noticed that until I put this information um together today. So, but yeah, it's it's way more stack heavy uh
20:44in the best ball. Um yeah, so those are the top three.
20:48>> And then how about A.J. Brown-Drake May?
20:51Cuz I know that when you originally put out some of the stack information, though they were very uh common. May sort of settled in is somewhere in that
20:58QB3 range. Brown, that ADP is sort of settled in in the second round. How common is that one, Darren?
21:04>> So, that one is uh number five in the gorilla, number four in the main event. And it's less common
21:13in the best ball one. It's 1 2 3 4. It's only 30 It's 30% is a lot, but relative I think that's the 10th most common
21:21stack in in the best ball. But, there there's there was less runway, right?
21:26Because it didn't Like you kind of knew when you were drafting early on there's probably going to be like a Brown
21:31May correlation, but it it it didn't like become fact until, you know, until he he actually got traded. So, um that he still has room to catch up in
21:39the best ball tournament. And they were drafting longer in the best ball tournament. That's why maybe that the numbers are a little bit [clears throat]
21:46lower in that one.
21:48>> Are any There Are there any like sort of uncommon stacks that are sta- like sort of stand out to you? And obviously
21:54there's a there's a million uncommon stacks because they're uncommon and you could probably find a bunch of two or three percenters. But, are there any
22:00like sub 10% stacks in any of these major tournaments that stand out to you and you say, "Huh, I wish I think that
22:07could have been uh a higher number that this sort of looks like a really strong correlation play, but few drafters are doing it."
22:15>> Yeah, and it's maybe not because by choice, but maybe just the the situation changed. So, if if we're going if we're
22:21saying like 32% is the high water mark in the big gorilla for the Burrow Chase stack, then I look at like I looked at
22:28like 10% and lower. So, Donald JSN is only 10% in the big gorilla. Purdy Shribling is 10%
22:39and the but that's because it's become like sort of more aware um at this time. Then there's some other ones. Like people do not like
22:46stacking CJ Spr- Stroud. So, Stroud Collins is 9%. Uh I I Stroud um Dalton Schultz is 5%. A really with a
22:56really funny low one is Aaron Rodgers DK Metcalf, which isn't a glamorous stack, but there's only two teams that have Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf in the
23:05whole thing. So, that's like 0.2%.
23:08Um Cam Ward, Cornell Tate is 7% and Brissett is really not stacked like Brissett
23:19and McBride is 3% and Brissett and Michael Wilson is 4%. So, there are low owned stacks. Like if you want to kind
23:26of like if you've been drafting a lot of them and not cuz you know in like in the last couple weeks, that's what people
23:31start to do. They start to try and just get shares of people that they don't have or maybe yeah, there are guys
23:37hitting that stack finder. I can tell you and like trying to find like edge edge stacks that they can go and
23:43and attack.
23:44>> Yeah, I'm with you. I mean for me personally, I've tried to build up some Detroit stock stacks in correlation across a bunch of best ball tournaments.
23:53Um you know, I have a couple of those Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow best ball tournament stacks because like you said, they're so easy to build and then I have
24:00sort of these Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, T Higgins ones where I've been able to cram in all three and I feel like in previous years,
24:08that was harder to do than this year.
24:10Like you mentioned with quarterbacks falling, I I think that there's some value in sort of attacking these potentially high value offenses that are
24:19not going to hurt me in terms of getting to the promised land, getting that three-week sprint and then potentially can run pure. So, completely with you on
24:27that. Interesting about like the the the Purdy stacks, Stribling Purdy, maybe Purdy Kittle, those are interesting cuz I think Purdy could hit. Darnold JSN, I
24:37think for best ball when we look at how Darnold ran out in terms of touchdown passes, that could be a really valuable
24:44one even with the low ownership and yeah, nobody wants CJ Stroud though, Darren. You're not going to talk anybody into adding in a bunch of CJ Stroud
24:51stacks no matter how hard you try on that.
24:53>> And that's what it is. Like some of these stacks are low because the quarterbacks aren't necessarily getting drafted. Like Fernando Mendoza
24:59uh Brock Bowers, there's that's less than 1%. But people aren't drafting Mendoza. So that that's one like if you're in the Big Gorilla, like you
25:07could you could waiver wire your way into that stack at a later time if you wanted to.
25:12>> Let's talk about um structural drafting where are we seeing the the like the return of sort of robust RB drafting more so than
25:23in previous seasons? What are you seeing like sort of on the running back build and uh with your research? And then on
25:29the flip side, what are we seeing with zero RB teams where a couple years ago that was sort of the thing to do where
25:36there were teams that were starting out with multiple wide receivers or wide receivers and tight end pushing running back back uh even like an extreme level.
25:44It feels like that's super rare this year.
25:46>> Yeah, so I mean if you just look at it through the lens of zero RB teams, it kind of tells you the story of like
25:53people are drafting the running backs.
25:55So drafting of zero RB teams is is at an all-time not an all-time, but it's at a four-year low.
26:02So in the Big Gorilla right now, only 5% of the teams being drafted are zero RB. So if you go >> And how are you
26:11I didn't interrupt you, but how are you defining zero I guess in in like there's no real definition, but for this for core
26:17definition.
26:18>> for >> Okay, so the first four rounds. So round five running back counts for zero in this sort of build. So you have
26:255% or less teams that are hitting there with one running back out of the first five rounds when it starts in round
26:31five.
26:32>> Correct. Yeah. They didn't wait They didn't take their first running back until round five. Um so that's it's at 5%. And it's like the the golden age for
26:42zero RB was 2024 when it was 20% of the teams were going zero RB. And if you look at
26:52Well, we know how that story played out.
26:54Like, the the zero RB bros, they don't like talking about it. Like, I I love I love they're in the golden era, like the
27:01hubris of of the the zero RB dudes. And if you if you spoke against it on Twitter, they they will come out in mass
27:09and sort of, you know, let you have it for for >> [laughter] >> better words, but the way it ended up
27:16playing out, so in that peak year in the big gorilla, so if 20% of the teams, on average, make the playoffs, that's
27:23that's kind of how I measure success of something like that. 20% is like your average probability to make the playoffs.
27:29In 2024, 15% of the zero RB teams made the playoffs. Well, that's so that's 5% below. That's significant. 2025, last
27:38year, it was really bad. 11% of the zero RB teams made it to the playoffs. That's like half of, you know, the average. So,
27:46we'll see what happens this year, but it's it's it's it's hard to find people willing to go a zero RB with 5%.
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28:51>> Yeah, I would say just the fact that it's it's 5% uh it's worth if you're a high-volume guy to to at least add a couple in the
29:01mix, but I would say like just based on your uh your research and the historical hit rates, if you're doing like two or
29:08three teams, it's it's not really a big benefit to you to sort of cram one in.
29:13And a reminder to everybody, FFPC is start two running backs, and you also have two flexes. So, you can potentially going up against a four running back
29:22team, uh and you also have the ability with tight ends in the tight end premium. So, a lot of flexibility, but very
29:28interesting stuff there. And yeah, zero RB is sort of seems kind of dead. The day and age of starting out your draft
29:35with like a seventh-round running back and putting them in there. Darren, all of those guys are getting pulled up into round five right now. So, these uh lower
29:43dead zone guys, yeah, like running back 27 is going in like round six right now.
29:48It's like you're getting no sort of discount on those high-end running back threes anyway. So, really interesting stuff. Um we mentioned tight end premium
29:57scoring. Now, you also see sort of the uh bully tight end teams, where I've seen a couple of Brock Bowers, Trey
30:05McBride teams that maybe felt like they were going to be kind of impossible to build, but uh we're seeing drafts where
30:12Bowers falls a little bit, and then you're seeing uh plenty of drafts where people don't want to pull the trigger on
30:18McBride, who's been excellent for two consecutive years, but is sort of in like a kind of a sweet spot in my
30:23opinion of FFPC value. You're also seeing Colson Loveland sort of living in round two. Then, you've got Tyler Warren in sort of his own little tier. And
30:33then, a bunch of these kind of high-end uh like the mid tight end ones are kind of being pushed up as well, the Tucker
30:41Kraft tier of guys. So, what are you seeing in terms of drafters building two tight end or more teams, and is it a
30:49viable strategy this year?
30:51>> It It's really fun to do it, but >> [snorts] >> the reality of what happens, and I don't want to be a downer, but um
30:58what the outcome that that usually leads to isn't isn't the most positive. So, I looked at And this year you actually have Loveland
31:07going in front of McBride and you know >> A lot of drafts. A lot of drafts to do for sure. It's It's uh He's He's a He's
31:13a He's like a rocket ship and people are just There's people who just have McBride as a do not draft kind of guy.
31:20>> Yeah. Um But uh so there's actually quite a bit of of two tight end starts happening in in drafts. So
31:30I'll I'll give you the his- the little bit of history. Last year the teams that went tight end tight end, again, 20% is
31:40the average advance rate to the playoffs.
31:43And the big gorilla, only 11% of tight end teams, tight end tight end teams made it to the to the playoffs. So, that's again,
31:50that's kind of bad outcome. The year before that was even worse. And And there are reasons for this. Last year was cuz Bowers got hurt.
31:58Right? In 2024 only 6% of the teams that went tight end tight end made it to the the playoffs.
32:05And in that year, LaPorta was going number one.
32:09And he he he got hurt, right? Actually, he had a good end of the year, but the other thing you got to keep in mind is
32:17like again, it's the short regular season. They have to perform in that short window. If you look at the season long of pro- of production, you'd say,
32:24"Wow, that's That's a guy I want to draft." Doesn't matter if he doesn't do it in like the first 12 weeks of the
32:28season.
32:29Um there was some success in 2023. So, two tight end teams, 31% of those made it to the playoffs, but and that was that was Kelsey Andrews.
32:40So, Kelsey and Andrews finished tight end two and tight end four for the first 12 weeks, but that was the year that Mark Andrews got
32:49hurt in week 11 and he was out the rest of the year. So, even if you you made it to the the sprint with those two guys,
32:56you probably got crushed because the guy who got you there, Mark Andrews, was no longer available. So, I don't have the
33:01numbers on how those teams finished.
33:03They were good getting there, but they were very bad probably um performance at the end of the day. So, this year I'm
33:11looking at sort of the the percentage of teams going tight end tight end and it looks like we're back to 2024 levels because
33:19just because the access to the two tight ends is is so easy. So, people are doing it again. They're not afraid. It's fun
33:25to do, but historically, at least in the past 2 years, it's it's like it's a it's it's The problem is if one
33:31if one of those guys gets hurt, you're probably sunk because you put so much draft capital into those two tight ends,
33:38you're like you're like chasing wide receiver and tight end or running back the rest of the draft. So, it's tough if
33:43they get hurt.
33:45>> Yeah, you're really you're chasing two positions. I think you nailed it where uh you're sort of pot-committed to those guys and then you're potentially also
33:52passing up on the tight end values we've seen in previous years where if there's a chance that like the the Kraft tier or
34:00the Kittle Isaiah Likely tier or even like a Dallas Goddard, you're probably uh not even considering them at ADP cost because you have this big sunk cost of
34:10those two guys early and you're trying to recover at not only wide receiver and running back, but you're also looking at
34:16your quarterback potentially in those double-digit rounds. So, I've done it in the past and it's really hard to pull off. Best ball maybe, but in redraft it
34:26just feels like a like a really tough putt. It's tough. If you could potentially if you could nail the the tight end one and tight end two or even
34:33the tight end one and tight end three, I feel like it's doable, but you'd also need it to be a really good year
34:39historically for tight end scoring, where you'd need to have two guys in that tight end premium that are giving you like 18 plus points per game to
34:47really see like an edge from it. So, interesting stuff there. Let's talk about Josh Allen. Josh Allen is sort of in a league of his own. He's his own
34:56tier. FFPC, let's call him an early fourth. Of course, you'll see him in the in the third round, but he just sort of
35:03sits there at the beginning of the fourth round, where drafters are sort of taking him when they don't feel an edge
35:09at a wide receiver or a tight end or a running back spot. Allen feels like an interesting click, Darren, because he
35:16goes and then you see like two and a half rounds of delta or more in some of these drafts before you Lamar Jackson or
35:24Drake Maye or one of these guys goes off the board. Your thoughts on Allen? How rare is this for you to see a
35:30quarterback really in his own tier uh this sort of late in the summer?
35:36>> Yeah, I think it was kind of like that last year. Um I guess I guess Jackson was kind of going a little bit after
35:41him, but the gamble on clicking Allen it I mean, it's paid off. So, last year he was the QB number one. He he's he's sturdy,
35:49right? He's He doesn't really get hurt and he just his ceiling is is crazy. Um so, if you owned Josh Allen last year in the
36:00big gorilla, it granted you drafted him early, your advance rate to the playoffs was 29% and with the average of 20. So, that that
36:08guy carried you um just by having him.
36:10So, it's it's worth it's worth taking him. Um in best ball >> And 2024 was even higher, I believe, too. Like 2024 those Josh Allen teams
36:20were They were like automatically through.
36:22>> have been like up to 40%. I'd have to I have that all that all that data I have on on the website. People who want like
36:28want to dive into like best ball um advance rates and all that stuff. I I've got it. I mean I can't list
36:33everything, but you I think you're right. I think it was like up at 40%. Um he was a 20% 6 26% advance rate in uh in
36:41the best ball leagues last year and that's a 16% average um to get to the playoffs.
36:47So I I think it's worth the the risk.
36:49I've take I took him and I think it was a Pros vs. Joes. I think I might have taken him in the third. Yeah. So and
36:55last year I did it and I almost I just came short of winning the the league. I took CMC. I took
37:02uh Allen and it was it mean it kind of worked out.
37:07>> Yeah, it's been funny because I've been telling people all off season to sort of uh do what I'm doing and sort of wait on
37:12quarterback where you're potentially passing up on an RB1, a wide receiver one, or in previous drafts it could have been a Tyler Warren. Now he's sort of
37:22sort of moved up in his own tier well ahead of Allen, but if you're drafting early on, maybe it could have been a
37:27Warren over an Allen. But I think there's also something to be said that you're avoiding landmines in a in a range of drafts where fourth round
37:35historically the hit rates are not perfect. And with Josh Allen versus those running backs and some of the even some of the wide
37:42receivers, um maybe it's maybe you're avoiding sort of an upside outcome, but the downside is there. So I feel like, you know, when push comes to shove these
37:53next couple of weeks, especially in some of the higher stakes drafts, I'm open-minded to drafting him because it's simple. It's Josh Allen. And he's really
38:01not going to finish lower than like the QB3 as long as he stays healthy, and the vibes are pretty good there. They got
38:06him DJ Moore and uh this seems like an offensive coaching staff, and Allen seems completely comfortable, and we know the rushing touchdowns are not
38:14going to disappear.
38:14>> Yeah. Now you've also got Brandon Aubrey though sort of in in his own tier uh Darren where it gets even crazier. Allen
38:22you wait like two and a half, three rounds. Brandon Aubrey, sometimes you it's like five rounds before kicker number two goes off the board.
38:29Obviously, he's got the record for the most 60-yard field goals in NFL history. Last year, he had the most kicks over 50 yards.
38:39Like in Dallas seems to want to get him these long opportunities and FFPC, you also get six points for those 60-yard
38:46field goals. So, like I'm looking up a bunch of leagues, they don't all have the uh the benefit of like an FFPC or an FFC
38:52for that matter. I get six points off Brandon Aubrey. So, where are you at with him? How rare is it to see a kicker sort of in their own
39:00little mini tier like this?
39:01>> Yeah, I don't ever recall seeing a kicker being drafted this high. And he is a legitimately a weapon. So, um
39:08so, it's if if you want to do that, like I can't fault people. Like he'll go like the ninth, 10th round pretty much of
39:14every >> It's crazy.
39:15>> every draft. But it but it's paid off.
39:17So, last year he was going in the 13th round. Again, still like four rounds before anybody else.
39:23Even as the number three kicker on the season, his teams the the the owners who had him advanced 26%. So, he was a weapon.
39:31Cameron Dicker was I think the third kicker picked. He was number one. His teams advanced 30%.
39:38So, it is I mean it is. Like I I don't really do it personally cuz I'm just I'm so old school. I'm like I'm just taking
39:43my kicker like last. I'd rather use that pick on like some dart throws or something. But I I can't deny like that it's that it's
39:50worked for people. So, um I don't scoff at it at all. It's like it works for people.
39:55>> I think that's another thing about like it works for people. And one other thing about like having an edge pick at kicker
40:02or defense, and people kind of brush it off and say that's kind of square to take these guys. But Nelson Sousa, who's
40:08a great high-stakes manager, sort of made a point of he used so much of his FAB on streaming defenses. And I think
40:15also the managers they're looking to screen that perfect kicker. It's a couple bucks each week to get that guy with maybe a high total game, maybe that
40:23guy who gets an indoor boost. So it's like just draft Brandon Aubrey set it and forget it. And again, people are
40:29like, oh, I can't use a 12th round pick on a kicker. But the hit rates for 12th rounders are really, really low. We
40:36think we've got it all figured out this time of year, but I dare and if we go back and we look at like rounds 10
40:40through 12 and will those players still be on the roster by week eight? The hit rates are really low. So it's like I I'm
40:49open-minded to taking Brandon Aubrey. I think it's really, really interesting. I think it's Justin Tucker seemed to always sort of be in his own range, but
40:57it was never like this in terms of the the sheer gap between him and kicker number two.
41:02>> The other The other thing real quick on that to think to realize is if you have Aubrey and you make it to the sprint,
41:09I mean, you really don't need to carry that second kicker, right? So that's another roster spot for you to to play
41:15with, to take into the sprint. But a lot of people usually take two, but there was a last year a lot of people just
41:21rolled with with the one who had Aubrey.
41:24>> Yeah, it's a a shout-out to a B Bag Betoba who that one year only carried one kicker and then I think he took down the overall in the
41:31350 with no kicker in the lineup in >> for two weeks. It didn't matter. So may maybe carrying multiple kickers is is
41:36overrated to begin with like if you know, you're just rolling the dice.
41:41>> The anti-kicker people love hearing that about somebody winning a championship let alone a million dollars at that without without a kicker in their
41:48lineup. Um, let's talk about one special thing you've got for this audience. I really appreciate this. You've done some work on the top 10 drops in FFPC dynasty
41:57leagues where cut down time is coming or like sort of around the corner. What are you seeing in terms of the drops and the
42:04kind of information we're getting?
42:06>> Yeah, so the cut downs in your dynasty leagues have to be finalized by September uh 9th. It's It's like before that first
42:15day of the the season. So, within the past 10 to 10 days, so what I do is I kind of just monitor like roster
42:23composition um over the period. So, the the top 10 drops so far, number one is Eli Hidden Reich. Like, I don't even know why like why that many
42:32people had him, but he's It was Hidden Reich, Emmanuel Wilson, Tyreek Hill, people are giving up on him, so that he's getting He's the third highest cut.
42:39Trey Sermon, obviously um got got cut, so he's he's down. Caleb Johnson, people are Caleb Johnson, man, that was last year. He was like a
42:48first-round pick. He's the fourth most dropped player right now uh in Dynasty leagues. Joe Mixon, they gave up on him.
42:55D.J. Giddens, Toy Horton was kind of weird, but I guess it's just a matter of roster space. Brandon Aiyuk, people have
43:01given up on him. And then a couple couple weird outliers, like I found a couple leagues where people dropped Mekai Lemon and Jordan Tyson. Now, these
43:09are the $77 Dynasty leagues, and like those are like just you know, it's it's just interesting like the mindset there.
43:16Like, why would you just drop him? But, I don't know. It happens.
43:19>> It's the wild wild west. It's an underrated time for making Dynasty trades, for sure, uh because teams are having to cut. So, if you see somebody
43:26with a big roster with a bunch of appealing names, and you have a roster that can support it, trading one player
43:32and getting a two for one can be very beneficial. You also see like appealing players where uh maybe they'd be worth a
43:39second-rounder at some point during the year that are going for like a fourth-rounder. Cut day in the FFPC is always wild, but redraft season right
43:47now, uh people drafting, make sure you check out everything Darren's putting out. fantasymojo.com, if you play FFPC, uh make sure you're also checking out
43:55his product. Let me know, once again, sort of where they can find it, Darren.
43:59>> Yeah, so if you also follow me on Twitter at @fantasymojo or fantasymojo.com is the website. There's a virtual tour there which shows you
44:06everything we have. Like we're we're like in the the the stretch run here, the final 2 weeks.
44:12Um we if you I I we literally have every draft board drafted online available for you to go see. So, like all those main
44:18events happening at night, like it was busy couple days ago with Jen T. Like I was doing updates during the day. Like
44:24as soon as drafts were done, those were out there, so people could see like where he was going.
44:28Um and like we were talking about a little bit earlier, the waiver wire.
44:35I have a waiver wire bidding guide.
44:36That's sort of like evergreen content that that I that I update. If you are a new player to FFPC, like that alone is
44:44the worth the price of admission. That's going to guide you. That's going to hold your hand in how to navigate this first
44:48waiver wire. And I have like Theo, we've had conversations in the past. There are like tricks on like what numbers to use
44:55when you're bidding. There There's literally a ton >> Well, give us give us a couple of them, Darren, cuz I know you've This is like
45:00the the advice like get your pen and paper out right now. If you're listening to this in your car on the podcast, pull
45:05over. Cuz Darren's got you covered here.
45:07What's the What's the worst the worst thing you see people do on the waiver wire uh in terms of like how they can
45:14And again, this is your waiver wire bid.
45:16So, like the actual numbers. What's the worst numbers?
45:19>> So, what happens is it's it's I call it human factors. Like people it's just like the way you operate on the keyboard is is what
45:29people tend to do. They don't think about like what the dollar amount is.
45:32They do what's easy. So, the worst donkey pick of of entering a waiver wire bid is is a double. 11, 22, 33, 44. Like
45:42any number ending in that is is really bad. So, my article kind of goes into that type of thing and says, we have we
45:48I have a grid. It's in it identifies these are the good numbers and these are the bad numbers. So, all the doubles are
45:53gone. Um an- another one is bids ending in zero. 10, 20, 30. Like those are terrible. So, we we of tell you what to do like just
46:03bid like another dollar or two like depending on what the number is. It is great. I get so many compliments on
46:09that. People are like, I can't believe it cuz if you think about it how much of an advantage is it on a waiver wire to
46:15to to drive your out the outcome for your season? Like think about the week where Michael Wilson was that huge waiver wire pick up last year. If you
46:23missed out on Michael Wilson by like a dollar or two, that that could have changed like your whole you know, outcome for that league that
46:30year. So, if you have these sort of tricks in your in your tool belt, that gives you an edge and that's going to be
46:35apply all year long. So, I mean, I would read it.
46:40I don't beg people to subscribe, but that's that's that's really worth the price of admission. And always when you subscribe, don't tell anybody else that
46:47you subscribe cuz you got to keep this information to yourself. So, just like it's hashtag don't tell anybody else.
46:53>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I've won so many waiver wire bids over the years. You know, kind of like avoiding some of the pitfalls. So,
47:00again, no don't don't double tap the same number. No 11, no 22, no 33, no 44.
47:06Don't end a friends don't let friends end waiver wire bids in a zero unless it's a thousand and you're letting it
47:12all go on like Puka Nacua. That's better off than like doing this round number.
47:16So, take some time with your waivers.
47:18Really really strong stuff and I'll say it's one of the underrated like low-key great feelings in fantasy is when you completely nail a waiver wire bid and
47:26you beat a guy by like just a couple of dollars and it's also on the flip side, it kills you when you see a player that is a
47:34impactful guy for the rest of the year cuz those guys there's only a handful of them there and if I lose out on a guy
47:40because I try to rush through waivers and and maybe lose him by like two or three dollars out of a thousand, it
47:46kills you throughout the whole year. So, make sure you go check out fantasymojo.com for Darren Armani. Make sure you also follow him on X and make
47:54sure you go check out rotowire.com. I'm updating my rankings every single day.
47:59Use code Theo35 for 35% off. I also, you know, since Darren called out the Dynasty Bros here, my Dynasty rankings are now live. So, if you enjoyed my
48:08Dynasty content at Fantasy Points or Player Profiler, you're going to love it here on RotoWire. Also updating those rankings. Stick with us here on the
48:15podcast and the YouTube feed. We had a We're looking at a record August for both feeds. I really appreciate the RotoWire audience for embracing my work
48:23here. And stick with us here on the pods. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.