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STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
49 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
No date
Published
18
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAlec PierceAshton JeantyBrock BowersDaniel JonesJakobi MeyersJavonte WilliamsJaxon Smith-NjigbaJosh DownsNick FolesQuinshon JudkinsSaquon BarkleyTank BigsbyTravis Hunter
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole31:09
The source expects A.J. Brown to act as a difference-maker who changes how defenses are called, forcing opponents to respect his presence and potentially elevating the entire offense, thereby justifying his high trade cost.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeUsage24:10
Alec Pierce is dealing with injuries and is historically a low-volume player; his vertical play style is inherently limiting, and targets are expected to shift toward teammates like Tyler Warren and Josh Downs.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
NegativeProjection10:31
Ashton Jeanty enters his second season with high expectations and optimism, despite questions regarding his production ceiling. While he is the clear 'bell cow' and has made efforts to improve his conditioning, the source expresses uncertainty about his volume in negative game scripts and how Clint Kubiak's scheme will utilize the backup running back.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeProjection0:36
Ryan Paganetti views Brock Bowers as a tier-one tight end and a first-round PPR pick, noting the Raiders' offense should flow through him. He possesses unique physical attributes that could allow him to function as an elite 'X' receiver. While there is a minor concern that defenses might use man coverage and shadow him with elite corners like Patrick Surtain II due to the Raiders' lack of quarterback mobility, the source remains confident in his high target volume, especially in negative game scripts. Paganetti also suggests Bowers could be a massive fantasy asset if utilized in tush-push goal-line packages, potentially adding eight rushing touchdowns to his receiving profile.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection25:42
The source highlights that the Colts' offense was exceptionally productive under Shane Steichen when Daniel Jones was healthy, ranking as a top points-per-drive team in the last decade. The source expresses optimism for his health and suggests the team's potential is currently underrated.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
PositiveUsage20:58
The source highlights the Jaguars' offensive success down the stretch last season following the trade for Jakobi Meyers, noting that the team became an exceptional offense after his arrival.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeUsage8:41
Javonte Williams has trimmed down and is expected to be the featured 'bell cow' back, but questions remain regarding how Clint Kubiak's scheme will utilize the secondary running back and how Williams' volume might be impacted if the team is trailing or if the offense shifts away from throwing to running backs.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeUsage5:12
Ryan Paganetti cites Jaxon Smith-Njigba's usage under Clint Kubiak last year—where he was targeted at unprecedented rates—as a historical indicator of how Kubak will likely prioritize Brock Bowers in the passing game.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage25:24
There is enthusiasm for Josh Downs, who has the potential to see increased volume and more playing time in two-wide receiver sets.
Insight pageNick Foles
NegativeRole30:13
The source recounts the high-leverage moment during the 'Philly Special' play call where Nick Foles returned to the huddle after a timeout to execute the trick play.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveBreakout57:26
Quinshon Judkins is described as an impressive, violent yards-after-contact runner who is poised for a strong year under Todd Monken's scheme. Despite potential quarterback uncertainty in Cleveland, the source believes he is set to do damage in fantasy formats following an injury-shortened previous season.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeUsage28:12
While Saquon Barkley is part of an unbelievably talented Philadelphia offense, the team faces uncertainty following the loss of offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland; additionally, some efficiency metrics previously showed him being outperformed by lower-usage running backs.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveBreakout28:17
Tank Bigsby is a starting-caliber running back talent and a difference-maker who, by some efficiency metrics, outperformed Saquon Barkley despite limited usage.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveBreakout22:03
Travis Hunter is identified as having the most upside among the Jaguars' deep receiver rotation, despite currently being positioned as the fourth option.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
PositiveBreakout30:59
The source describes TreVeyon Henderson as an exceptionally talented player with shocking big-play ability. Despite facing a high volume of stacked boxes last year—similar to Rhamondre Stevenson—and dealing with frequent backfield hits, the source argues he is being unfairly faded by the fantasy community. Given his rookie-year production and draft capital, he is expected to be a difference-maker, with improvements at skill positions likely to create more explosive run opportunities.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveBreakout21:11
The source remains high on Trevor Lawrence, viewing him as an exceptional talent with underrated rushing ability. He is compared to a version of Josh Allen due to his size and dynamic playmaking, with the team increasingly utilizing him in red zone and goal-line situations. Performance is expected to improve as he and Liam (Kalen) get on the same page.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection7:15
Ryan Paganetti acknowledges Trey McBride's exceptional season but argues that Brock Bowers possesses unique physical attributes that elevate him into a tier of his own. The source also notes that McBride's high target volume was partly driven by negative game scripts, a narrative that could potentially mirror Bowers' situation in Las Vegas.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue25:13
Tyler Warren is in a tier of his own and is currently being drafted around the TE4 position; he is considered a potential fantasy 'cheat code' due to his effectiveness on short-yardage rushes at Penn State.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:05Which NFL play callers can fantasy managers trust in the 2026 season? And which players could be primed to have massive fantasy seasons? Theo Gringer,
0:16lead fantasy analyst at Rotoire, joined today by Ryan Paganetti, who is one of the most respected football analytics and game management specialists in the
0:25NFL. Uh, now making incredible content.
0:28He's a fantastic follow on X and he's also producing some fantastic stuff over on YouTube. But Ryan, last year you were
0:36with the Las Vegas Raiders. Just how great a season could Brock Bowers have this year in the Clint Kubak offense?
0:44>> Yeah. So, so what I would say is that um you know there is there's just being on you know in a practice field in the NFL,
0:52there's sometimes where you just see a player and it kind of makes you do a double take. And when Brock Bowers
0:57showed up in in OTAAS with the Raiders last year, it was really shocking just like the the the physical talent he was
1:05coming off of, you know, his rookie year just being incredible. And um almost immediately the the the coaching staff had a consensus that this player would
1:15basically be our top receiver and he's he may actually be a better ex receiver than most of the exceivers in the NFL.
1:22And um you know wi with Pete and with Chip like as we sort of looked at the roster there was a clear kind of issue
1:29with the Raiders roster where where they were a little bit underman at the receiver position. At the time it was like Jacobe Myers was looking to get
1:36traded and whatnot. So there was some instability there but um you know we were expecting to to basically just hammer Brock Bowers with targets like he
1:44was going to be our guy. And you know, we we were thinking just based on the roster that we had that, you know, him
1:52setting receiving records in terms of catches, yards, touchdowns, like that that was sort of like the aiming point for where we were going to go with that.
1:58And he was really going to be our first read on a lot of our concepts. And week one, I think he had 103 yards in two and
2:05a half quarters. And then he actually suffered a pretty significant knee injury. And that really derailed things offensively because, you know, and I
2:12think looking back, he probably should have sat out almost immediately and he tried to play through it. The the team was a little bit overmatched at the
2:19offensive line position and at the receiver group as well. And that sort of created scenarios where um you know we were we were sort of putting out fires
2:27at different spots like whether we were helping out the offensive line with more chip protections or we were you know subbing in Mike Mayer because we didn't
2:33want to put in uh you know Brock for too many runs because we were kind of managing the knee and like so it was
2:39sort of a narrative over the course of the year to kind of manage him. He ended up getting having a period of time where
2:43he did sit. He came back I think against the Jaguars. He had one of like the best, you know, tight end seat games
2:48ever and then he ended up getting shut down at the end of the year. But I just look at the the roster that they have in
2:542026. And you know, you could make an argument that they're a little bit weaker at receiver than even the group that we had last year because they don't
3:01have Jacobe Meyers. And you know, they're going to they did add Jaylen Naylor and and and they're sort of hoping that the younger players will
3:07step up. But just given Clint Kubak's background where he really was throwing the JSN at unprecedented rates last year in terms of the target shares and and
3:16and how how you know really where he was the main guy. I don't know how you could be sitting there and evaluate the
3:22Raiders roster on a day-to-day basis if I'm Clint Kubak and not saying my offense goes through Brock Bowers at least in the pass game. It's it's
3:31incredibly exciting and I love talking about Bowers because it's it's not like some theoretical player that could explode. We look at the rookie year
3:39statistics. 153 targets, nearly 1,200 receiving yards and 112 receptions. And then like you said, the sample size we
3:48have for Kubak last year, it seems like an absolutely perfect pairing. And then you look at sort of the the target
3:55competition. I mean, for me, Brock Bowers is a first round pick in all formats, including just regular PPR. I updated my PPR rankings. You can go
4:04check those out right over at rotowire.com. Use the code Theo20. If you're enjoying shows like this, you're going to love the content we're putting
4:12out over at rotoire.com. But talking about Bowers, like for you, is it is there a gap between what Bowowers can accomplish and maybe any other tight end
4:22in football? cuz I think a lot of times people are hesitant to dive into tight end one overall just because they think
4:29they can play catch-up, but for me he's in his a sort of a tier of of his own right now.
4:35>> Yeah, I think that uh you know, Trey McBride's season was certainly exceptional. You know, I know that some of you guys have sort of dove into them
4:43being down a lot and you know how that sort of impacted like the game script and how he was getting the balls. I
4:48think in no way there's this is no disrespect to Trey McBride, but you know there are just physical attributes about Brock that are so unique that like you
4:58legitimately could enter a season and say he's just going to be our ex receiver and he probably is, you know, an elite ex receiver. And um I think
5:07that like as they sort of get a feel for this season, like most likely the Raiders are probably going to have some struggles as
5:16they work through like you know rebuilding the team and they they have a tough schedule. You know they're in a very tough division and I think you can
5:22see some of the similar narratives that you saw with McBride when they were losing a lot and you know he he's
5:27getting additional targets and whatnot.
5:28I think that there's a a reasonable world where you see some of that stuff with Brock Bowers as well. And um I I
5:35think just going back to in what he did in college where he basically showed up in the SEC at like the most elite
5:41program in college football and just immediately was a dominant force. Like I think that's like just a real good represent representation of just like
5:48how shockingly talented the player is.
5:50And I'd say one of the only concerns would be are some teams going to just like say it's an obvious pass situation.
5:59Are they going to play man defense and dare those other guys to get open and take a player like Patrick Certan and
6:04put him on Brock because that that may be your best effort to to slow down the Raiders and and they they also you know
6:11some of these teams get spooked out of playing man defense because the quarterbacks can run a little bit. I don't think you're going to be spooked
6:16out of man with Kirk Cousins and Mendoza right now because the runability is not really going to be at a high level. So I
6:22think that's one cons one minor concern about it. But I also, you know, think he can win some of those matchups, too. It
6:27was just it's just a very unique circumstance.
6:31>> Talk about Ashton Genty as well just in how you're viewing Genty taking a leap forward from year 1 to year two
6:41potentially. Also with the offensive line improvements. I know last year you guys had some injuries on the O line and and this offseason we've seen uh Vegas
6:50go out and and sign players in free agency and also you're going to get some players back from injury. Genty last
6:56year averaged like 14 and a half points per game in in fantasy football. He was a one-two turn pick like early second
7:03rounder, late first rounder. He's right back there this year, but it seems to be a lot more optimism about how his season
7:10could turn out. Are you expecting a big leap forward in terms of production as well there? I I think that if you you
7:18know, you look at Clint's scheme like Clint wants to run the ball. the the the O line coach Rick Dennison is well known
7:23to have a you know many years of of exceptional run offenses. Uh that O line was was overwhelmed last year and Colton Miller was really
7:32playing at a high level and I think you know he he went down in week four and he was done for the year and we really from
7:38a replacement standpoint it it was not where it needed to be. And um the the the addition of Linderbomb is obviously
7:46an excellent addition. You're really going to have two difference makers on that offensive line. I still have some questions about the other positions of
7:53that O line group as they kind of work through the guard spots and work through the right tackle spot. And I also sort
8:00of wonder how teams are going to approach playing the Raiders because I think there there may be some efforts to play a lot of single high and play step,
8:07you know, have guys close to the line of scrimmage and sort of dare those receivers to win just I think from a
8:13game plan standpoint. So I think it it it'll be a little bit interesting there.
8:17I think there was a to some degree there was uh there there there may be a little bit of an overestimation of how much the
8:26lack of like downto-own production for the running game last year was was entirely on like the surrounding you know scenario there. I think you know I
8:35think Ashton acknowledged like you know he there there were some areas where he could improve himself and I think he made some efforts to do so. There was
8:41like an article about him losing some weight, trimming down, and he certainly is going to be the guy that they, you
8:46know, they feature and he's kind of their bow cow. I sort of wonder also that Clint Kubak seems to be a guy that
8:51over time has uh, you know, he's given the second running back a decent amount of of opportunities and, you know, how does
8:57that fit in? And so I think there's compared to the Bowowers thing where I I feel pretty confident of on like where
9:03that's heading. I have some questions just like where that scenario is going to go with Genty and then also if they
9:08are losing for example where does where do things go there in terms of like the volume that he may be getting or like
9:14are they is Clint going to throw the ball to the running backs a lot if they're losing like how does that look I
9:18think there's definitely a lot more questions there um and you know I guess it remains to be seen how that kind of
9:24plays out let's talk about your journey Ryan because you've become like this must follow this summer for a lot of people
9:31in fantasy but they might not be aware of like your pathway, your journey. Uh you won a Super Bowl with Philadelphia,
9:40spent time with Jacksonville, and then again last year with Vegas. You are easily the first Super Bowl winner that I've ever had on any of my podcasts,
9:47which is a kind of a cool first for me.
9:49But why don't you talk about it? Um you know, and how analytics have really changed the NFL as well. Yeah. So, I I I
9:57got my start in um Philadelphia in 2015 and I was sort of fortunate that they they ended up making a coaching change a
10:04little bit after I got there and I was able to sort of partner with Doug Peterson and sort of be his coaching
10:10analytics and his game management guy and um Doug had a great attitude about using all the data and he had a very
10:16open mind and I I kind of considered myself fortunate that many of these highly successful head coaches that had established pedigrees were very
10:23resistant. they were resistant to analytics in part because they've already had some success, but Doug as sort of a first-time head coach was very
10:30open to it and the ownership of the team with Jeffrey Lur like he was a very strong advocate as well. And so, you
10:36know, we really tried to push things in terms of like buy in on fourth downs and two-point conversions and using play
10:43action or trying to run a lot of quarterback sneaks, like different metrics that I think different people in the public space had talked about and we
10:50really tried to apply those and we had some success obviously doing that. And um I think over time um you know when I
10:58started there was very few people that were really in these sort of like quantitative roles in the league and now like every team it's almost mandatory
11:04that you have you know a number of people helping in these roles and the departments are like not getting smaller but I ended up moving over to
11:11Jacksonville to sort of be a director there. And I was um you know I was fortunate to be part of the the the
11:17first Super Bowl for the Eagles and I kind of wanted to be part of the first Super Bowl for another team. And so I
11:22came in in Jacksonville and in the I think the 10-year span prior to me getting there, they had actually been the losing his franchise in the league
11:30and I think even in professional sports and so like I saw that as like a interesting test case to try to turn
11:36things around and um my you know they had just been off the Urban Meyer season which obviously was sort of a struggle
11:43and even the year before Urban that what got there they had also you know been picking first because the team had
11:48struggled and um we were able to you get a quick bounce back in terms of that first year. We we ended up winning the
11:54division and we ended up winning a playoff game and everything. And um it was cool to kind of be a part of of that
12:00sort of experience, but I think there was just sort of different nuances there that made Jacksonville a little bit of a
12:07unique unique place. Um and then I I I got to spend this last year with the with the Raiders and and that was a
12:13pretty cool experience as well. Um, but I'd say the the Raiders experience was the first time in my career where just
12:21like we felt so overmatched as a roster and um you know we we there certainly was some star players whether it was
12:28Brock or um Max Crosby and but like just from the pure depth of the team like it was it you you sort of you know uh every
12:36sort of organization I think is optimistic as you know the offseason plays out and then training camp gets going but I think at some point whether
12:44whether it's the first or second game of the year, there's like sort of a wakeup call for a lot of these teams that
12:49whether it's the fan base or in the building, like the optimism is sort of met with realism and like you sort of
12:54realize like, okay, there there's going to be some aspects of this team that are like major issues and um you know, I
13:01think the the Raiders made a ton of improvements to their team and I think that you know, I think they're they're
13:04they're heading on the right track and everything, but um uh going this route where like I can do some things publicly
13:11and do some consulting work and whatnot, like it's just like from a quality life standpoint, I think is a lot better for
13:16me and it's something that I'm enjoying doing so far.
13:20People don't really I mean I'm sure people understand how hard you guys work in the NFL, but what was like a week in
13:27the life of Ryan maybe for the last like 3 years? Like when you're in season just how how many hours are you putting in in
13:36like a like an inseason traditional week? I mean, I don't know. Or is August and July even even longer hours? How
13:43does that work out like in just terms of your flow?
13:46>> Yeah. So, what I would say is like just as an example, picture your in season and you know, Monday, for example, would be
13:54something like 6:30 in the morning to 10:00 p.m. The same thing Tuesday, same thing Wednesday. On on Thursday, you might get out early and and get to leave
14:03at like 8:30 or 9, but you're still in there early. And then a and around the league, it's been relatively common that
14:09a lot of teams uh they sort of give people a half day on Fridays to sort of spend time with their families and
14:15whatnot, but it's still, you know, you're still in there early because especially when you're traveling to the away games, like you have to travel on
14:21Saturdays oftent times. And so like a lot of these people don't even get to see their families at all because you
14:26travel on Saturday and then you fly back right after the game and you're basically just crashing and going to bed and starting the cycle over. But um it
14:34was somewhere in the 100 hour a week range and like when your team's struggling like it's it kind of weighs on you a little bit whether it's just
14:40like your your your well-being, your happiness, your physical health, like those are like real things that I think people underestimate um that are and then and
14:50then obviously you know you're if you're part of a struggling team like the public criticism, the potential high turnover of your job and everything like
14:56there's a lot of variables that maybe aren't talked about in the public sphere enough about like how the the the day-to-day life is maybe not the the
15:07coolest thing that you could imagine is like being in the NFL.
15:11>> No. I mean, you hear a lot about like the college football coaches and and how just grueling it can be with like the
15:17recruiting aspect, but I think a lot of people don't understand like the NFL.
15:21the guys like yourself and then it's like it's it's all walks of the coaching staff and and is it like pretty much
15:28universal that everybody's putting the work in at that sort of level? Yeah, I'd say like I the the most respect I have
15:35in the coaching industry is for the the leaders like whether it's head coaches or coordinators that actually try to emphasize to their staff to like get
15:42home and spend time with their families and you know take care of their own health because there it's almost like a
15:49virus around the league where it's very extreme and like there's it some of the the work extreme work hours are kind of
15:55glorified and I just think it's it's really silly and you just think of like the cognitive ability of of you're making all these decisions and and like
16:02you're you're potentially doing it in like an extremely fatigued state, a situation where you're just like not in a good mental place and it's 1:00 in the
16:10morning on a Thursday night and like you're coming up with some third down game plan defense and you're like it's like it's just like from a macro
16:17perspective like if you if you tested people's IQ's when they're in that sleepd deprived state like it can't be that good.
16:23>> So it's Yeah. law the law of diminishing return in anything in life. It's like a little too much there. But uh yeah, and
16:30and I know you you sort of you you didn't really discuss this, but I and I know you've told this story a million
16:36times. You're going to get to tell it one more time to the to the Roto Wire audience, but talk about the Philly
16:41special cuz it's was the magical moment.
16:43Really one of the most magical moments in in any recent Super Bowl, probably any Super Bowl in in the history of
16:49Super Bowls. Um and you had a big part in that.
16:53>> Yeah. So, what I would say is um it was I like my heart was sort of beating pretty fast. I I'd say there just
17:02because uh Doug Peterson had brought up my name and press conferences and whatnot that I was helping out, you know, during the booth communicating
17:08when to go for fourth downs and whatnot.
17:10And regardless of our team success, the a lot of the Philly fans were not cool with that arrangement. like that was so
17:16unconventional then that you know I couldn't turn on the the uh the radio in Philadelphia without hearing some kind of criticisms on on like that process
17:26especially like if a fourth down did not work but we got to that situation I I was sort of thinking like oh man like
17:32this is this is going to be a very high lever situation and it's going to be very all or nothing especially because
17:38it was end of the half so it's either we're either going to get a touchdown or we're going to get nothing and the field
17:43position value of failing was not really helpful at that point because they could basically just run out the half. So, you
17:48know, as opposed to if that situation came up with 10 minutes left in the first quarter and you go for the fourth
17:53down and fail and they're starting at their own one yard line, like you're you're you have like a higher expected value there. So, um, you know, I
18:00communicated the information and Doug Peterson really didn't blink and he he was definitely going to go for that situation and, um, and then when we
18:10actually were we we kind of got out of the huddle late and we ended up calling a timeout and we and then Nick Fos came
18:14back over the sideline and, um, I'm up in the booth and and we really didn't know up in the booth what was going on,
18:20like what the play call was and then, you know, Fos runs back into the huddle and one of the coaches asks like what
18:25was called and Doug says Philly special and I'm just thinking like the fans are going that I'm not going to be welcome
18:30back in Philly if this doesn't work because the fans are going to think that I I like which I had nothing to do with.
18:36They're going to say I recommended calling a trick play to the quarterback on fourth down. Like that's that was not my role at all. And I was just thinking
18:43like this is going to be a disaster.
18:44Like it and you know it was probably a 50 55% chance it was going to work and then it ultimately did and kind of the
18:50rest is history. But um it it almost was a coin flip that went the other way and I kind of think my
18:56life would have went a whole lot differently if if it just happened to to go the other way and they cover FO or
19:01whatever you know whatever happens there. Awesome awesome moment and I'm sure it's a story that you've told a million times at this point breaking it
19:09down but it's still it's just amazing and very very cool. We talked about Clint Kubak. We talked about Brock Bowers a little bit of Ashton Genty. Who
19:17are a couple of other offenses that you're very bullish on with with some of your research, especially regarding the play callers?
19:25Yeah, I'd say, you know, one that jumps out is the Colts just because I I like looking at um you know, when you have
19:32data sets of like a lot of people look at the the year-long samples of of these different teams, but when you have these kind of
19:39unique circumstances where there was say Daniel Jones healthy with with Shane Stiken, they started out the year, they were just unbelievable. And I I spent,
19:48you know, as we were struggling on offense in Las Vegas, like I was researching heavily into what were what are the Colts doing because they they
19:55were such a massive outperformer that whatever it was 8 n 10 games into the season, they were basically the best points per drive team in like the last
20:03decade, whatever it was. Like it was they were just exceptional and they ended up kind of fading down the stretch a little bit before um you know Daniel
20:11Jones got hurt, but also of course when he did get hurt and then when they had to go with different quarterbacks. But
20:15if you take that subset of a of a time, like they were a Super Bowl contender and I think they're sort of flying under
20:22the radar a little bit just based on how things finished. You know, they didn't make the playoffs. Um, but Shane Stiken's excellent. I know Jim Bob Cter
20:29because I I was fortunate to work with Jim Bob in 2022 with the uh the Jaguars and he was one of the smartest coaches
20:36I've ever been around. And so like those two coaches together in terms of scheming up an offense I think are are
20:40are sort of a combination that people are maybe not totally appreciating just because they didn't you know they didn't make the playoffs. Things kind of faded
20:48because of the quarterback injury and some other things. And um I'm very intrigued by them. And then sort of in the same logic, I'm very optimistic
20:58about the Jaguars offense and particularly as you look at the second half of the year when they traded for Jacobe Meyers and they were an
21:07exceptional offense down the stretch last year and I think you can potentially look at Liam and Trevor sort of getting on the same page and like
21:14feeling each other out and then adding Jacobe and I mean down the stretch they were really one of the best teams in the
21:19NFL, you know, for the second half of last season. And I've always thought that Trevor is an exceptional talent and there was maybe factors behind the
21:28scenes that could have potentially explained some of his performance not always like living up to what the expectations were. But the physical
21:36talent in addition to his rush ability, I think is is sort of underestimated a lot too. you know, he he really has a a
21:44version of Josh Allen in him, like where he's not going to run people over, but he is a big guy that is very dynamic and
21:49he can run and they've started to use him more and more down in the, you know, in the red zone and the goal line and
21:55that receiver group is stacked like that. You know, they basically go four deep with guys that can can do some really good things and like, you know,
22:03Travis Hunter may have the most upside of all those guys and he really is probably like, you know, the fourth guy
22:08in the rotation right now. So, not only are they sort of well suited there, but they can kind of withstand injuries, I
22:16think, just because, you know, if any of those guys go down, they have somebody who can really step in and be a good
22:20starter. So, I think those two teams, you know, they just so happen to be in the same division. They just so happen
22:25to also have to go against Houston that is really a loaded really a loaded defense. I mean, I I think Houston
22:31people sleep on is how good they were on defense. It's like they were better than Seattle in some of the, you know, the
22:35advanced metrics defensively and they, you know, they they basically are bringing up back most of the team and they just added Clowny. And those teams
22:42are interesting to me. I think publicly people don't give enough credit to the Cowboys because, you know, the the defense was was really struggling so
22:50much. It was really 32nd in some of these advanced metrics. But Dallas was a top EPA offense last year and, you know,
22:57they're they're bringing back the same group and it's, you know, it's another year with Shanheimimer and Dak. And if they are if they just become an average
23:04defense and they can actually just get people off the field, like I could see a lot of the offensive players for the
23:09Cowboys even having better years just because they're going to have more possessions on offense because they can get people off the field and they're
23:15not, you know, they're not facing these fourminute drives that are 10 10 plays wrong and all that. So I think that
23:22those are some teams that are are interesting to me. And um you know I think it it's also kind of nuanced like
23:29you look at the schedules. I saw something about the Jaguars have basically like the hardest defensive schedule for the first seven games and
23:36then they have like the easiest or something like that. So, I think there's some cases where you could see like a
23:40team potentially struggle early on and sort of look ahead at their schedule in the second half of the year and look
23:44maybe this is a guys you could kind of buy low on or try to make a trade for in the fantasy world. Yeah, I I love the
23:51takeaways. Colts, Jaguars, Dallas.
23:53Dallas is sort of like the offense that everybody expects to score a ton of points but we don't like get excited
23:58about. we sort of take them for granted.
24:00Colts were were an interesting uh interesting observation from you and that's a team where we know they're going to give the the football to
24:07Jonathan Taylor about as much as he can handle. Is there a player besides Taylor that you would want to bet on this year?
24:14I mean certainly Alec Pierce dealing with some injuries. We talk about the potential of Brock Bowers. Tyler Warren sort of in a little bit of a tier of his
24:22own. uh going off the board as like the tight end four. Then you've got a lot of enthusiasm about Josh DS potentially on
24:29the field in more two wide receiver sets, potentially buying in on on either of those guys this year. Ryan, >> I Yeah, I I think that
24:38I the Alec Pierce one is interesting because he's a low volume guy and I know that's that's that's a little bit of a
24:44tricky predicament where like his yards per catch has been really exceptional.
24:48It was it was actually kind of interesting. I'm never I don't think anyone knows this publicly, but like there was discussions about Alec Pierce
24:54getting traded last during the draft last year and like the Raiders were a team that there was discussions with, you know, with the Colts and and then I
25:02think, you know, he ultimately had a great season and and and like so many big plays and then, you know, he signs
25:07the big contract and everything, but I'm not sure that like Alec Pierce is just simply going to increase in volume dramatically just in terms of his play
25:15style. And I could see kind of more of the the targets ending up with guys like Warren and and and DS and and and I I
25:22could see them sort of leaning into some of those players a little bit more. Not to say anything against Pierce, but I
25:28think just part of that role is as being like the the vertical player, it sort of ultimately is a little bit limiting in
25:35terms of what the total volume you might see from the player. But um yeah, I I I I I'm excited about watching their team.
25:42you know, hopefully Daniel Jones is healthy and and everything's good to go from that standpoint, but you know, there's some optimism around there.
25:49Talk about are there any offenses and I know you're you're sort of like that you're doing some awesome stuff with with Nick Underh Hill. You're you guys
25:57are are doing the the Paganetti and Underh Hill Show on YouTube. Make sure you subscribe to that. If you're watching me on YouTube right now, really
26:03easy. We'll put the link for for Ryan's show right here in the description. You can go subscribe to that one. on. If
26:09you're listening on the podcast, just go go look it up. Um, but what's interesting is you're you're sort of around the fantasy space now, the NFL
26:16space. Is there an offense that you think maybe the fantasy community is a little too excited about or potentially just the NFL in general? An offense that
26:25you maybe have some question marks about this year, uh, that could get drafters in trouble?
26:31>> Yeah. So, what I would say is I I think two of the teams that sort of um I I would have a little bit of caution about
26:39just because there I think we're we're we're need to pump the brakes a little bit about forcing teams to just get
26:45under center and say like every team needs to be under center, every team needs to be under center like and that's
26:50the solution. age to all of your woes and and I think that this is getting a little bit out of hand, but I I think
26:57both Washington and Philadelphia are teams that the quarterbacks I think are honestly probably better suited to be shotgun type quarterbacks. And there's the
27:07threat of the run ability, the ability to run read options and whatnot. Like just assuming you can just plug in the
27:13quarterback and just put him under and that there's going to be these efficiency gains is is a little bit of an overstatement at times to me. and and
27:19like you know these guys have been been operating really their whole college and pro careers in like a gunheavy type scenarios and I think the same could be
27:27said for Minnesota where you know there there's obviously some some talent there and like you know we'll see if Kyler ends up winning that job but just
27:34assuming that Kyler Mil Murray can just pop in there and be under center and and and really just like you know be the
27:42same player and and do the same things like I think you're over you definitely want to have under center game you want
27:47to have a gun game like some of these teams are incorporating more pistol. But some of these teams that I think they're
27:54overestimating the fact that teams have elected to be heavy shotgun with some of these quarterbacks for a reason. Whether it it fits their skills, whether the
28:02threat of the the the quarterback run game is is much more significant there.
28:05So some of those ones I think the transition there like I you know obviously Philly is unbelievably talented in terms of offense like with
28:12the O line and the tight ends and you know Saquon. I try to tell people like we had Bigsby and Jacksonville. Bixsby
28:18is a starting running back talent. like he is a differencemaker and you know that was a very interesting trade that they they sort of Philadelphia traded
28:26for him with the idea I think him being sort of a kick return specialist and then it sort of turned into well he can
28:31just be our our our second running back and and you know by some efficiency metrics it was clearly low usage like he
28:37was outperforming Saquon which is almost you know impossible to even say but um the the talent is very significant in Philadelphia but there you know there's
28:46such uh media attention on them 247 seven. There's criticisms on the quarterback, criticisms on the receiver group. There there's there's always sort
28:54of narratives. They're trying some totally different things this year. They they lost really probably by what most people would consider to be
29:01as the best offensive line coach in the league in terms of Jeff Stelin in terms of what he's done over the last decade.
29:06So, there's some questions there. You know, I think uh if you said two years ago, you know, after or even last year
29:14after Cliff Kingsbury's great first season in Washington, that everyone would would be like happy that he was leaving after his second year. I think
29:21that's sort of an interesting narrative there because they went with like a firsttime guy who's does not have much experience. They're going to try some
29:27different things, maybe do some more of the under center concept things, but I I'm I'm not entirely sure how that's going to work out. And I think it's
29:34something to sort of keep an eye on.
29:36Yeah, we'll we'll approach those teams with a little bit of caution and um that's a really interesting take.
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30:39Um, let's talk about is there any players? You know, you mentioned Brock Bowers. We talked about him at length.
30:44We've talked about a couple of these teams. You know, I I hear you go on these shows and you do a fantastic job,
30:50but how about just your personal conviction? Guys that you think could be poised to have tremendous seasons in 2026.
30:59Yeah, I think one that is a little bit of an odd circumstance is Trayvon Henderson is unbelievably talented and the big playability is is really
31:10shocking. I mean, I it was almost like I just remember that last year watching them in preeason and Trayvon's ripping off these huge runs and you know he he
31:18had a bunch of you know whatever it was 50 yarders last year like the the success rate was low and like he was
31:23getting hit in the back field a lot and ultimately like it was a sort of a up and down season for him but from a pure
31:29talent standpoint and then just from this the the aspect that AJ Brown stepping in there and is going to kind of change how these defenses are
31:37called where you have to respect AJ and I I also could see AJ as well being a guy that is going to really sort of turn
31:44that offense up up a little bit in New England. Um, you know, I think some people have made a little bit of a
31:50comparison of when, you know, Randy Moss went to New England and like I it's certainly not the same as that, but like
31:55AJ Brown, they didn't trade a first round pick for nothing for him. Like I could see that him sort of, you know,
32:00really both those players between Trayvon and AJ sort of being difference makers that can kind of, you know, show their pure talent level. Um, and then I
32:08think uh it's uh it's going to be interesting, you know, just in terms of where some teams go with, you know, these there's
32:17so many play color changes around the league. I think Mike McDaniel going to uh the Chargers is like a real wild
32:25card. Like he he does some of the best run game stuff you could ever imagine and they they they were so decimated
32:30with injuries last year with with the Chargers. But I think you could see either of those running backs, you know, or even Lad Manki, like you could see
32:38some interesting things happen with the Chargers. Um, you know, I I think people forget like a couple years ago, uh, you know, Mike McDonald was or Mike
32:46Mike McDaniel was really like the the guy in terms of like the the run game or offensive innovations. I mean, he put up
32:5270 in a game at one point. Like it was really kind of exceptional. and but they they have some interesting talent and
32:58they're bringing back really a left tackle and a right tackle that essentially missed the whole year last year who are both excellent players and
33:05and and this might be the best quarterback that Herbert's, you know, in Herbert that Mike McDaniel's ever worked with. So, I think some of those players
33:12on that offense, you know, are guys to keep an eye on and and and and there's there's definitely some some interesting
33:17players there.
33:18>> Yeah, it's a great great call out with with Mike McDaniel. That's an offense we've been really excited about and uh I
33:23can't wait to uh throw this one at at Scott Barrett who I know you've podcasted with as well. I'm constantly fighting against him on on Travon
33:31Henderson. I've been pounding the table on Henderson and I'm fighting the good fight. A lot of people want to fade him
33:35this year, but I'm with you. I think the talent level is exceptional and the amount of stacked boxes that both he and
33:42Roandre uh Stevenson saw last year. AJ Brown and and even Romeo Dubs, Eli Raridan, the improvements they've made at the skill positions. I mean, I think
33:52it's gonna going to open things up for more explosive runs. And and to me, that's Trayvon Henderson. Just a really really good player. And counting stats
34:00wise, he's being written off, but if you look at like what he did last year as a rookie, guys that do that with that sort
34:07of draft capital don't usually just fade away in year two. So, I think people are overthinking that one. Um, let's talk
34:14about another play caller that it's interesting. You talked about I I saw your show with uh with Hayden and Josh.
34:20That was excellent. But a couple of stats you talked about with those guys and you've been doing these on X and if
34:25you're not following Ryan, make sure you are. Some of your charts on X and some of the stat takeaways are just terrific.
34:31But it's the the 10 plus yard design run rates. And the coach that was very successful with these was Todd Monkin.
34:40Uh, and now you've got Monkin in a very different situation without the mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but there is a running back in Quinnshan Judkins.
34:49Could you see Judkins uh poised for a strong year despite some of the challenges that the offense might have in terms of figuring out who's behind
34:59center, getting consistent quarterback plays, but just Todd Monkin, the play designer, what what are some of the positive attributes you could see kind
35:07of correlating uh in Cleveland? Yeah, I I think a lot of people need to, you know, take a look at how how much
35:14success Todd Monkin has had in different offenses. I mean, he did it at Georgia.
35:18He's done it in his past where like he's had these excellent offenses over the years. And I think that was partly why,
35:23you know, Cleveland hired him because, you know, as much as they were an elite defense over these years, like they they
35:29just simply could not win games consistently because the offense was such a problem. and you know trying to turn things around whether that's with
35:37Deshaawn Watson or whoever ultimately kind of wins that job. Um I think that that ultimately is like the the rationale be you know behind what what
35:45they did there. But you know Judkins is is a similar player. I mean, if anyone who kind of watched Ohio State a couple
35:50years ago with Judkins and Trayvon together, like that at any moment either of those guys could could really do some things like, you know, Judkins was more
35:58of kind of like a violent yards after contact guy and then Trayvon was sort of the guy that could go 60 yards really,
36:03you know, on a sort of whim there. But I think that that's uh, you know, just simply saying that Monkin will not, you
36:11know, have as good of a rush offense because he doesn't have Lamar and Derk Henry is maybe not that simple. He he's
36:16he's really designed some cool stuff over his whole career and he was doing it at Georgia. They didn't have a really
36:21a dynamic mobile guy when he was doing it at Georgia. You know, he's had some different run games over the years that
36:26I think are pretty effective. So, um I think that that that that's an offense to to really sort of keep an eye on.
36:32And, you know, certainly the the the quarterback situation may dictate a lot of that. Like, it may ultimately be that teams are just stacking the boxes and
36:40and sort of daring them to throw the ball and saying we're going to stop the run game. So, I think that that's
36:44something to keep an eye on. But, you know, even we played Judkins last year too, like Judkins is a really impressive
36:49player and um you know, I between the injury and then between between what kind of played out in the offseason last
36:55year like there he didn't really get a full season to sort of express that, but you know, I think you could see just
37:01like at different moments like there was an impressive player there, you know, to to do some to do some damage at least in
37:07the fantasy world this coming year.
37:08Yeah. and a ton of improvements that Cleveland's put on their offensive line from drafting Spencer Fano and then multiple free agent signings. It's
37:16definitely one where I feel like Monkin, the fantasy community doesn't give him as much credit because he's older and I feel like it's harder to get around like
37:24this older guy being like this sharp, really truly brilliant offensive mind.
37:29If he was 20 years younger, I feel like there'd be a lot more fantasy enthusiasm for him. Just sort of my gut feel. And
37:34it wouldn't hurt if they had a quarterback clarity either, Ryan. that that always helps us out a little bit.
37:39Let's uh kind of talk a little bit more about analytics. We talked about sort of analytics changing the game. Um what
37:46about the next edge to be exploited?
37:49It's a copycat league. You see teams try to emulate success, but what are some things we're going to see this year?
37:56Could it be more even more play action?
37:59You talked about uh you know teams lining up behind center a little bit more. What are some things that you think could be try to be exploited or
38:06some things that will be exploited?
38:08>> Yeah, I for sure there there's definitely a pattern where the the team that wins the Super Bowl or the team
38:14that scores the most points in the previous year, you see like a lot of copycat efforts there. And I think there's a pattern there where you saw,
38:21you know, the Rams led the league in points, heavy under center team, a heavy play action team that, you know, they
38:26did the 13 personnel stuff as well, which was a little bit unique. Um, Seattle was, you know, they end up winning the Super Bowl. Their offense
38:34definitely was, you know, a tick behind the Rams in terms in terms of efficiency and whatnot, but they're also like heavy
38:39on percentage team, heavy play action team, getting in big personnel. I think you'll see more and more copycatting of that sort of stuff. So, you know, like
38:46this idea that teams are going to just trot out 11 personnel for 70% of their or 80% of their snaps, like that's
38:52probably not going to be realistic for a lot of teams. And you'll see I think you're see looking at potential upticks
38:57in the uh you know tight end usage for sure. You know whether that's more 12 personnel or 13 or whatever. You know I
39:05think that that's something that to kind of keep an eye on. And um uh down there I'm I'm really interested down at the
39:12goal line like you know you saw more teams put non-quarterbacks in and just say like hey we're going to just run
39:19these tush pushes every time. And I think you saw there it was like a record amount of non-quarterbacks taking snaps and like that could definitely have
39:26fantasy implications. We actually I told somebody this like we were trying to experiment with that with Bowers because it really wasn't Gino's play style to be
39:35a sneak guy over his career and we sort of had some issues working out the snaps and our we really were overmatched with
39:40the line. But then we, you know, we we had a package where we were going to have Bowers take the snaps and and do
39:45these tush pushes and >> he ended up he ended up getting hurt week one and so that kind of partially pushed that out the window a little bit.
39:54But can you imagine if he say got eight more, you know, touchdowns just on rushes from the one yard line that that
40:00would just kind of send him to like potentially being like the best fantasy player of of any position.
40:06>> Yeah, I might faint live here on on the podcast here. You keep talking about Brock Bowers getting eight rushing touchdowns on top of everything we're
40:13expecting in the pass game. I think that's a really interesting one. And you start thinking about other guys and it's teams being creative with who's getting
40:20those tush push type runs. You know, we we saw it with like AJ Barner, um, you know, a Mark Andrews. Could we see it
40:27with even like Tyler Warren? It's sort of another potential cheat code guy considering how effective he was on short yardage at Penn State and how the
40:36Penn State coaches would get him manufactured rushes despite having like Nick Singleton and Kron Allen and like very very good Big 10 running backs who
40:46are drafted in the NFL. Tyler Warren would be a name that sort of jumps out.
40:49It's also a scary proposition for fantasy managers considering you might be banking on all of those runs going to a running back or in some cases a
40:58quarterback and all of a sudden here comes a tight end too who just happens to run in. Maybe Darnell Washington in
41:04Pittsburgh. He might not be bad on those short short yards uh runs. How about long field goals? That seems like another trend where if you know
41:13depending on your scoring format like FFPC uh you get a you get six points for a 60-yard field goal those kind of
41:20kickers. Should we be targeting kickers?
41:23People hate kicker talk but it's another edge. Should we be targeting kickers that can kick long field goals? Is that a trend we're going to see more in the
41:30NFL with teams attempting these? It seems like that's a trend we're seeing.
41:36>> Yeah. So, so interestingly enough, like I I was part of the group that sort of drafted Cam Little and then you know I I
41:42I saw on a day-to-day basis like I mean he could kick this is prior to them changing the K balls like he was making
41:47basically from 68 and uh and then they changed the Kballs and so this company Trackman that sort of does the ball
41:54tracking like if you watch I think maybe Sunday Night Football or some of these broadcasts and it says like the good
41:58from distances like Trackman you know they do they do the golf basically like the the tracers where you can see how
42:04far exactly the the shots were and like what was the max height and the ball speeds and everything. They they sort of
42:10tested these the 2024 Kball versus the 2025 Kball and they sort of uh estimated that the the balls are potentially traveling like say four or five yards
42:21farther with this new sort of K ball change this last year. So you saw more 55 plus yard field goals ever more 60
42:27plus yard field goals. Um, you know, I was actually literally part of Cam, like we're playing the Jaguars and they, you
42:34know, complete a ball to the 50 just before halftime and they trot him out and he just sits there and sets the NFL
42:39record right in front of us and he and he honestly made the 68 yard like pretty comfortably. Like it's honestly crazy to
42:45think about, but but between him and Brandon Aubrey, like you've got guys that like they feel very comfortable.
42:51Like they're say they're at the plus 45 yard line and it used to be completely unheard of that a team would like
42:56attempt a field goal from the plus 45 yard line in the first quarter. Like they're going to put them out there.
43:01Like that's that's like a comfortable field goal attempt for some of these teams. And like it's really like a it's a very interesting weapon for like
43:08fantasy, but also just like from a game management situational standpoint. like you're playing some of these teams, you have to think about like how you're
43:14handling the end of the half and the end of the game because like these guys the field goal range is just like totally
43:19different. One trend that we've seen and and I'll shout out to Ryan Heath um who came on my show and and I know you've
43:27you've talked to a number of times, does great work over at Fantasy Points. Uh Ryan had a great stat how the number of
43:33wide receivers to run a 75% or higher route share across a minimum of eight active games. 2021 it was 53 and it's
43:43gone down each and every year to the point where last year it was 40. Should we be valuing and we already do value
43:51these alpha elite wide receiver one types in fantasy, but even with the trend towards running backs, should we be valuing these guys even more because
44:03it's sort of a dying breed to get these guys that are just simply running routes at an exceptional rate. Um, and do you
44:10expect this trend to keep going down, Ryan, as you look at the NFL?
44:15Yeah, I'm not sure I could I could say for sure if it's going to continue going down, but there there are some
44:20interesting nuances there between um uh like a lot of these teams are trying to utilize the the receivers in the running
44:27game in terms of blocking. And so there's like some cases where teams are sort of mixing in like a third or fourth
44:33guy and he's like a little bit more of like a blocking specialist. And like say you watch the Rams like they would have
44:38their receivers come in to the you know box to block frequently but like they're not doing that with Devonte Adams like
44:43just from like a they're making a business decision like does this make sense for our veteran you know player to do. Um, and so I think you're seeing
44:50more and more teams come up with these sort of like specialist type uh players that are like going to serve a certain
44:56role for the team, whether they're blocking or they're sealing the edge or they're like they're running simple routes that um, you know, you could have
45:04anybody sort of run a a flat route or just run like a crosser versus like the guys that are more of like the precise
45:09route runners that you'd like to be like the best at running a dig or you know, running a slant or whatever. So, I think
45:15it's an interesting balance there. Um but there's also like a consideration that teams are thinking like hey this guy just ran a long route like let's
45:23just get him out of the game because he's fatigued and we don't want to like you know say he ran a first and 10 this
45:29guy ran like a 37 yard route down the field like they're just going to pull him off the field and I think you see
45:34some of that sort of consideration as well but in terms of just like managing the health of the players so there's
45:40there's some interesting layers there and um I think just because the Rams especially had a lot success with the with the receivers blocking. I think you
45:49could see more and more of that where these teams are like, "Oh, like our wide receiver four who's kind of a special
45:54teams ace. Like, let's just throw him in there because he's going to be sort of our blocking guy for some of these and
45:58we'll have some play actions off of it as well." But he he's the guy can kind of stick his head in there and kind of
46:02dig out a safety versus are we going to do this with our first round pick type receiver. So, there's some there's some
46:07interesting balance there. Yeah, very very interesting stuff. If you could know the final stats of any player in the NFL this or well we well we well we
46:16well we well we well we well we well we well we well we well you know we'll make it fantasy because uh let's go if you
46:20could know the final fantasy stats of any player in the NFL this year who would it be?
46:26I I'm very interested to see where Genty lands you know that that that's that's there's so much narrative like okay it
46:33was the circumstances were a disaster for him. you know, what was you know, I always have a little bit of extra
46:39caution when like there's so many sort of different excuses thrown out for like why performance occurred for a certain player. I think he could he he could
46:48have 1,800 yards. He could have, you know, he could continue to have a little bit of a lower yards per carry. Like I I
46:54don't know where that's going to go.
46:55Like I'm really interested to kind of sort of see how that plays out. They obviously did upgrade, you know, the the
47:00center position dramatically and, you know, Brock will hopefully be healthy for him. Colton Miller will hopefully be healthy. Like where he ends up, I don't
47:06know. You know, that that organization made a decision to invest there like at, you know, with a running back at the six
47:12overall position where like you're hoping you you you get some high production there. So, I I think that's going to be an interesting one for sure.
47:19And like, you know, I guess I'm a little bit biased because I was there and I sort of, you know, saw the player
47:24firsthand and everything. And um, you know, I hope for his sake and for the Raiders like he he blows up, but like I
47:29could there there also is like within the realm of possibilities that it's another year that's a little bit of like a lower efficiency and you start to kind
47:36of ask questions like, okay, what's going on there?
47:39Absolutely awesome stuff today from Ryan Paganetti. Ryan, let everybody know once again where they can find your work and what you have coming out. Yeah. So,
47:48just, you know, I started this kind of on XT Twitter, whatever people want to call it, just with my username is just
47:53Ryan Paganetti. And then about two weeks ago, me and Nick Underh Hill started this podcast called, you know, Paganetti and Underh Hill on YouTube. And we're
48:00really just digging into just like all sorts of unique research. and it's it's a little bit less geared towards fantasy, but I think you know some of
48:06the fantasy fans will find some application towards like what we're doing, but it's just sort of game strategy or like play callers or sort of
48:13just macro interesting sort of things and trends around the league. Yeah, really excited to see uh that show continue. It's really really strong
48:21stuff, Nick. Very, very sharp guy. Uh one of the experts when it comes to all things New Orleans Saints. Uh I think
48:27you guys are going to absolutely crush it and stick with us here on this channel. If you're listening on the podcast, give us a review. Give us a
48:34give us uh a five stars and a written review. Helps us out a ton if you're enjoying the content. And if you're
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48:46you crush your leagues this
