The Biggest Fantasy Football Draft Values RIGHT NOW (2026)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
57 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 10, 2026
Published
Mon, August 10, 2026
29
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Jonathon BrooksA.J. BrownAlec PierceAmon-Ra St. BrownBaker MayfieldBrock BowersChase BrownChuba HubbardColston LovelandDe'Von AchaneDeebo SamuelDeVonta SmithDK MetcalfEmeka Egbuka
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue34:13
The source expresses a strong preference for AJ Brown, though acknowledges he represents a significant opportunity cost when drafting in the early rounds.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeInjury25:29
The source believes Alec Pierce will be healthy by the start of the season despite spring and summer injury issues. However, the source expresses concern that missing practice time is damaging for his development in a new, expanded role where he is expected to see 10-11 targets per game.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
NegativeBreakout39:29
Amon-Ra St. Brown is mentioned as a corollary for a player whose late-season performance trajectory would have drastically altered his market perception and draft ADP.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection40:13
Baker Mayfield is described as a motivated quarterback looking to bet on himself, which the source believes will lead to him funneling targets to Emeka Egbuka.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection17:23
Brock Bowers is described as an incredibly talented and masterful receiver who is entering the season healthy. The source views him as a potential 'PPR cheat code' and a focal point of the Raiders' passing game due to a lack of other receiving threats. He is cited as a benchmark for elite tight end production, with the source noting that drafters who secure him could potentially see 20 points per game. Additionally, the source believes Bowers could 'break fantasy football' if he receives the projected target share and first-read rate under Clint Kubiak, noting that previous coaching staff had even considered using him in Wildcat and tush-push packages.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue35:15
The source considers Chase Brown a preferred running back target, noting that while it can be difficult to pass on other players to take him, he is a key component of their favorite draft builds.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeUsage11:10
Chuba Hubbard is characterized as a volume-dependent compiler who struggles significantly when his snap share drops below 60%, averaging only 6.42 PPR points per game in those instances. The source notes Hubbard lacks explosive playmaking ability and efficiency, suggesting that even a 40% snap share for Jonathan Brooks would effectively neutralize Hubbard's fantasy value. Furthermore, Brooks has completely cleared Hubbard in ADP on sharper platforms like FFPC and NFC, with market momentum and coaching staff enthusiasm heavily shifting toward the rookie.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeValue38:54
The source questions why Colston Loveland is being drafted a round or two ahead of Tyler Warren, noting that they view both as elite prospects and have historically bucketed them together.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeProjection34:19
The source expresses concern regarding Devon Achane, despite acknowledging that he sometimes falls to a draft spot where he becomes a viable selection.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeRole32:55
The source uses Deebo Samuel as a stylistic comparison for how the Ravens should utilize Zay Flowers in the red zone, suggesting Flowers should be deployed on whip routes and near the pylon to maximize his playmaking ability.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveBreakout41:18
DeVonta Smith is viewed as a strong candidate for a career year, with the source highlighting the appeal of him stepping into the WR1 role in Philadelphia. While historical data shows his fantasy output remained steady at 14.5 points per game regardless of AJ Brown's presence, the source expects a new offensive philosophy to unlock his potential.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveRole30:17
The source questions DK Metcalf's outlook, citing uncertainty regarding his role and how the departure of Michael Pittman Jr. might impact his target distribution.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveSleeper37:48
The source is heavily invested in Emeka Egbuka, citing his pedigree as an Ohio State wide receiver and his role as the team's intended WR1. Egbuka demonstrated elite potential with a 30% target share in games without Mike Evans and a strong five-game stretch as a rookie. His previous struggles were likely due to fatigue from an extended college season, but he enters this year healthy with a motivated Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveBreakout8:28
Jonathan Brooks is a high-upside target in Dave Canales' offense, with the source citing Canales' track record as a 'running back whisperer' who successfully elevated Chuba Hubbard and Rashad White. Brooks is described as a tough runner with great hands and the ability to run routes from the slot. The coaching staff is 'pounding the table' for him, and he is projected as a potential 15-point-per-game player who could serve as a bargain in the sixth to ninth rounds. Despite his injury history, the franchise remains committed to his potential as the first running back drafted in 2024, and he is viewed as a superior prospect to Chuba Hubbard.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout16:28
The source identifies Jonathon Brooks as a high-upside target in Dave Canales' offense, citing Canales' track record as a 'running back whisperer' who successfully elevated Chuba Hubbard and Rashad White in previous seasons. The source suggests drafters should capitalize on his lower ADP in non-FFPC formats.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury30:12
The source advises caution regarding Jordan Tyson, identifying him as a player to potentially avoid due to lingering injury concerns.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
NegativeUsage36:33
The source references Keaton Mitchell's injury last season as the catalyst for the coaching staff ramping up manufactured touches for Zay Flowers, serving as a precedent for future usage.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue34:13
The source expresses a positive view of Kenneth Walker, noting that he is a player you have to pass up on to secure other targets in specific draft builds.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveUsage7:26
The source notes that John Harbaugh historically allows Lamar Jackson to utilize his full skill set as a runner, contrasting this with Matt Nagy's tendency to limit quarterback usage near the goal line.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeProjection34:33
The source questions whether Mark Andrews is 'cooked,' noting that if his performance continues to decline, it would further solidify Zay Flowers as the primary focal point of the Baltimore offense.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeBust30:23
The source advises against drafting Marvin Harrison Jr., stating that he has looked horrible in his recent performances.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeUsage39:23
Mike Evans is noted as the veteran whose absence creates a significant target vacuum, as Emeka Egbuka has historically commanded a 30% target share when Evans is out of the lineup.
Insight pageOdell Beckham
NegativeBreakout39:23
Odell Beckham Jr. is cited as a historical corollary for a rookie wide receiver who experiences a late-season breakout, suggesting that if Egbuka's early-season production had occurred later in the year, his draft stock would be significantly higher.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveValue35:43
The source highlights Puka Nacua as a primary target in their favorite draft builds, specifically when drafting from the 103 position.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeDepth Chart34:24
The source identifies Rashod Bateman as a player receiving camp hype but explicitly notes that he poses no significant impediment to Zay Flowers' target share.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
NegativeRole16:01
The source uses Rico Dowdle as a comparative model for a backfield time-share, suggesting that Jonathan Brooks could follow a similar trajectory where he starts in a split role and gradually increases his usage through superior efficiency.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveUsage29:54
Despite age-related concerns, Travis Kelce is expected to command significant target volume this season. While the source prefers other tight ends for redraft upside, Kelce is highlighted as a strong value in Dynasty formats where he can be acquired cheaply to provide reliable top-12 production for contenders.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue17:32
Tyler Warren is a significant value at tight end, being drafted well behind the Trey McBride and Colston Loveland tier. The organization shows high intentionality in scripting him into the passing game, often featuring him in the first 15 plays. He is projected for 135-140 targets, potentially mirroring McBride's usage, with additional 'PPR cheat code' upside from four rushing touchdowns via Taysom Hill-style wildcat usage.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout31:32
Zay Flowers is positioned for a career year, with projections to break the Ravens' single-season reception record (108). He maintains elite underlying metrics, including a 29%+ target share and 99.1% route participation. The source views him as the primary offensive weapon outside of Derrick Henry and a smart buy at his 308 ADP, noting that increased red zone usage and manufactured touches could further elevate his production.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:06identifying players that are too cheap in ADP right now and provide league winning values. I'm joined today by Alex Dunlop of Roster Watch. Theo Griminger,
0:15lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire. Alex, let's just jump right off the top rope. How good a season could Cam Scatteraboo be set up for? And how
0:24much has he helped by the injury optimism for Malik Neighbors and this offense sort of being whole maybe from the jump?
0:33>> It's been great injury news for the for the Giants. You know what I mean? It's u coming into camp. You know, I think that
0:40we, you know, in the um in the in the voluntary mini camps and then the and in the um and in the OTAAS, we started to
0:49get the idea like, oh man, like, you know, maybe maybe Scat actually is going to be okay for this year. It was the
0:55neighbors that was the big question.
0:56There was the softball game where he's running around the bases looking completely hobbled and you start to think, okay, well, what exactly are we
1:04dealing with here? And we had the whole Malik Neighbors watch. Is he going to start camp on pup? You know, like how is
1:09all this going to resolve itself? And during that time, we had a window where we were getting, you know, just depending on where you're playing, you
1:17can give Malik Neighbors fourth, fifth round in some of these drafts was where he was falling. Obviously, that discount's gone a lot now. But I think
1:26with um I think with just the group in general, it feel like it feels to me like everybody's, you know, everybody's
1:33looking good. And it it's just it's wild to me that the Giants could have foreseen this because I know Theo, you
1:40cover, you know, we've covered the draft together for many years before and um worked a lot and done some collabs. I
1:47know you watch it real closely, but there was a point in time there during the NFL draft where it was a big
1:52narrative that maybe if Jeremiah Love was there pick was was that pick five that the Giants picked at? I think it
1:57was >> five. It was it was that was the whole thing is is the Cam Scatteraboo could get completely nuked >> and instead he comes out like unscathed
2:04and they and they add Francis Maui Noah who's the best run blocker in the blocker in the entire draft arguably.
2:11>> Yeah, man. And so like not only does he get help along the along the offensive line, but the Giants are like literally
2:17the team that's done they've done nothing to address the running back.
2:19It's like they've known the whole time that Scataboo is going to be okay. maybe just being around him and being around
2:24the building, they know that, you know, Scataboo, if you just think back to his time in college, like the one thing when
2:29that injury occurred last year that you said to yourself was, "Well, at least with Scataboo, you knew this. the guy is
2:36the guy is just a baller that like that you know um is just so good at the game of football but he it's it's not a guy
2:45where you say like oh he's this quick quick twitch um you know like high like you know with the with these wide
2:54receivers they're like these sports cars right they get these little you get these little they they get a a little hitch in their giddy up and all of a
3:01sudden it like it really throws the rest of this stuff off with Scataboo is just such a such mutter, dude. To where it's
3:07like it's you don't really worry about him coming back off injury or any of his juice being sapped. That's not the kind
3:11of juice this guy plays with. And so, you know, I just I think it's been more of a with a as with a lot of this stuff.
3:19Um, Theo, you know, like, you know, I I run tons of sim I've run thousands of of simulations a day that follow the ADPs
3:27and I update them every single day. And it just it feels like Scataboo is a guy who I'm consistently getting at a point
3:33in these drafts where I'm just, you know, it's like if I can get this guy in the fourth round of these drafts, I'm
3:37sup I'm super interested in it. I don't I'm not worried at all about Tyrone Tracy. If you look at the, you know,
3:43this is Jackson, this is Jackson Dart's guy, dude. This is their image. This is the kind of this kind of the team is
3:48sort of built around the personalities of these dudes. And um if you look at the games that he played with Jackson
3:54Dart last season, he's you know he's a he's a four and a half fantasy points better per per game in those just
4:02because I think of his connection with that guy and how how how willing Dart is to get him involved and um I just think
4:08in the fourth round it's like that's a that's a dude who you know if you get him you know averaged 17 and a half
4:14fantasy points per game with with Dart last season. Get that over the course of a season dude you're cooking with grease. That's a great poll on the the
4:21with dart. And I think what's interesting is we think about like Matt Naggie, the OC, and and certainly he doesn't give anybody like warm feelings,
4:28but the one takeaway that I've heard from some of the analytical people like Ryan Heath this off season, Jacob Gibbs, uh they've talked about how Matt Naggie
4:36doesn't like willingly use his quarterbacks around the goal line as much as maybe you would think. And uh it's sort of a a rubber meets the road
4:46scenario where Harbaugh would allow Lamar Jackson to do pretty much anything as a runner. Greg Roman as well. They're both in the building. But if that trend
4:55stays on, then Scataboo uh could just be very effective inside the 10 yard line right around the go go goal line. So
5:01sort of those green zone touches. So 19.8 I believe touches per game last year as a rookie. High volume. He can
5:08catch passes out of the back field. I moved him up to 42 overall in my PPR rankings. You can find those over at
5:14rotoire.com. Use the code Theo20, get 20% off. Is that about in line where where you have him ranked, Alex? I think
5:21I'm like pretty aggressive with uh Scataboo. I guess that would that would be sort of a mid fourth round uh value,
5:28but I think it's there. And when I'm chasing upside in that round, like Scataboo is one of the guys that I think
5:34could be drafted. If he has the season that you think he could, you know, based on what he did as a rookie, Scataboo
5:40entering year three could end up being like a second round pick in PPR.
5:44>> Oh, dude. Yeah, man. He he would have been he would have been this year.
5:48>> Yeah, there you go. [laughter] >> He would have been this year. But um the had he not got hurt. Um, you know, with
5:54at at Roster Watch, we have the ultimate draft cheat sheet, which is not rankings as much as it's like a visual
5:59representation of where you should take players based on the other positions that have gone because it it sort of tells you where position value is going
6:06to be forming here with later picks, right? But if I were just to take that and make it into rankings like and just
6:12say that those are the rankings, we'd have him, you know, he'd be slotted in between picks 36 and 38.
6:18>> Yeah. So, you're you're even ahead of where I am right now. So, I'm gonna I'm going to do an update. I'm trying to
6:23update these kind of every time I draft, I go back and try to update these because I'm not going to I'm not going
6:29to have my rankings be reflective of anything other than sort of my how I'm valuing guys when I'm actually OTC.
6:34That's when we sort of tell our greatest truths in fantasy football. And Alex, I love I love podcasting with you. You're
6:40you're an excellent evaluator of of college football talent and you watch more college football than pretty much anybody in in the fantasy space. you
6:48have like a unique perspective because Alex also is covering Texas football and therefore SEC football uh for orangebloods.com which is a massive
6:59site. Alex, I believe that's like the biggest single source of any college football team. Like there's no bigger site than orange bloodoods when it comes
7:07to >> I mean from what I understand that's true. I know that there's metrics out there. I saw Shannon Terry from On Three
7:12was saying like we're like we're the seventh biggest. Um, but from the internal metrics that I know, it's an it's an independent site now. So, I I'm
7:20not exactly sure how he got those net subscriber numbers. I just I mean, I can just I mean, I can it's a it's a
7:26monster.
7:27>> We're ballparking. We're Don't sell yourself short. You guys are massive.
7:30>> Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Like, you know, like 300,000 YouTube subs. It's I mean, it's a it's a it's a it's a monster. It's a
7:38It's a really big site that Jeff Ketchum built. So, you've got a unique perspective when it comes to players that played at the University of Texas.
7:44I always love catching up with you at the Senior Bowl. It's like Matthew Golden was rising during the Senior Bowl and I'm like Alex and Alex, you know,
7:51you talked about like being around him, you know, seeing him on the field.
7:54You're attending Texas practices. It's like a continual drum beat. Jonathan Brooks, it feels like the year and you know Jonathan Brooks sort of the player,
8:03but you also know a little bit of him as the person by being so close to the Texas program. How motivated do you
8:09think he is right now to sort of it's it's almost like his destiny when he was drafted inside of round two, first
8:15running back off the board in 2024. I we've seen players completely fall apart with this sort of injury history. It feels like the opposite with Brooks
8:24where the candle has been burning within the franchise that this guy's going to eventually get there and it feels like this is the year for him. Take it take
8:32it away. your thoughts on Brooks, the the player, the person, and just what this season could look like for him?
8:38>> Well, you you got to remember with Jay Brooks is like he was beloved by the Texas fan base because, you know, coming
8:45in, he came from was I think he's from Howitzville, like a small little not not one of these big programs in Texas where
8:51the stadiums hold 50,000 people, right?
8:53He's he's one of these guys that was plugging away and was just an absolute um kind of you know pound him into the
8:59dirt type runner that was was you know an accumulator of you know massive massive yardage and very productive but not at one of the big schools. So, not
9:08as highly ranked as some of these other guys coming in, right? And then he comes in, he's he's got I mean, it's not easy
9:14driving to sit behind Bejon Robinson and and Roshan Johnson. It's like that's not an easy running back group to um to to
9:23to, you know, to penetrate, to be able to get reps. It's like you're just you're you're not going to do it. But
9:28whenever he got his chance, it was wild, dude, because those guys move on and, you know, Jay Brooks steps up. At that
9:34point, we weren't even sure who the starting running back was was was going to be for for Texas, right? They kind of
9:38had some guys he just hadn't hadn't really seen him. And it's like Jay Brooks comes in in that what was that 20
9:45what what I get the years mixed up that his final >> Yeah, it was the it was the the 20 I
9:50believe that the 2023 season, right? Or be Yeah, right. When Bejian Robinson's rookie of year and their points per game and their their scoring averages at
9:58Texas were like identical.
10:01>> Yeah. I mean, Brooks just comes in. any like he he rushes for like 1,200 yards like c catches 25 footballs and you just
10:08you you're like dude you know how you know how how did we not realize that there was like there was it's it's like
10:17at some point you would said like man the running game after losing those guys like there was such a major drop off
10:22it's like he made Texas fans kind of just for not forget about these those players right but just not have to say
10:28like golly we really need to get back to the days of Bejon and all the rest like you know He's he's that kind of guy.
10:34Super super super super tough runner.
10:36Great hands. I know, you know, 20 I I think I this off the top of my head, so don't quote me on it, Theo, but I think
10:42he had 25 27 catches, something like that. It was it wasn't the most, but it wasn't terrible. I've also like I know
10:49that in one of those games he's played as a Carolina Panther, he caught like three balls in that game. So, uh we've
10:55we've seen him be able to catch. I can just tell you for being at practice and stuff like that, this guy's a a
11:00phenomenal receiver out of the back field. I think that um I think he's a guy that you can he's he's actually so
11:06good at it. I think he's the kind of weapon that you can you can line him up in the slot and stuff. He's one of these
11:10guys that can actually run routes. Um, so really really good football player and I just I you know as far as for
11:17fantasy this year I get to that I was always concerned that Jay Brooks was gonna kind of get up into the
11:23in and FFPC is Chuba just going ahead or Chuba just going after him now. Yeah, FFPC and NFC has been completely clear.
11:30He's completely cleared Chuba. We're still seeing it on on like the best baseball sites, the major best baseball sites where people are hanging on to
11:37Chuba, but like Dave Canales and all these guys are are pounding the table on on Brooks and and just sort of the hype
11:44hype surrounding him and talking about different packages they're going to use them on. I mean, it feels like the drum beats get louder and louder. the ADP is
11:52getting heavier and heavier, but it's it could almost look like a a bargain like seventh round Jonathan Brooks late sixth round Jonathan Brooks if he gets that
12:02Dave Canales running back role. Um I think we're looking looking at like a player that could not necessarily be a league winner, but a player who could be
12:10a 15 point per game type guy um and really help us win in fantasy. Well, I just I gosh, it's like that hurts my
12:18heart to hear it because it's like if you if if you are running these sims and you're using and I always wait FFPC and
12:25NFC higher in my sims. Um, of course I have to take FFPC and we have the algorithm nor normalize it for for um
12:34for non-tightend premium, right? But still, the positional weights within FFPC, how they stack position by position, I put a heavier weight in and
12:43into that whenever I'm simulating them because I feel like those are sharper drafters right now. Right. With with that being said, um we do have these
12:51cues coming online now at Sleeper and at ESPN and at CBS and at Yahoo where there's like when you're playing in your
12:58home leagues with your buddies at home, they are going to be ranked in a list, right? And if you're if we're talking
13:02home leagues here, a lot of people just kind of they kind of don't like to go much further down that list and stuff.
13:07And so we got to weigh that in too. And I I've been I've been happy to be getting Brooks in the like in the eighth
13:14round, right? Some like eight, nine turns sometimes. Um I I'm not sure it's going to be there once we get into the
13:21like we're still we're we're still early. I think once we get into the the final three weeks of drafts, I'm not
13:27sure we're going to be able to keep getting him there. Because here's the thing, Theo, it's like if you just think
13:32about it, you don't have to be a super sharp guy or somebody that sits around thinking about this stuff all year, have
13:37this be your full-time job. Just say, "Well, do do I want to take Chuba Hubard or do I want to take the guy who maybe
13:45down the course of the season could end up taking this job?" I think that's what the normal person's going to think. To
13:49me, in my in my brain, what I think is Jonathan Brooks is better than Chuba Hubard. Jonathan Brooks is a prospect
13:55coming out was a better prospect than than Chuba Hubard. I thought relatively highly of Chuba coming out of Oklahoma State. Um, but Brooks was a better
14:03prospect. I know he's been hurt, so that's a ding against him. But the other thing about Chuba is, dude, look at him
14:08through the course of his career. If he Chuba Hubard, whenever he gets under 60% of the of the sn of the snap share,
14:14averages in PPR like 6.42 fantasy points per game. If you if you're telling if you're telling me that like that Brooks
14:21is even gonna be like a 40% contributor, you've you've neutered the one thing that's been the primary driver of Chuba's fantasy value during his whole
14:29career. And that's like whenever he gets volume, he manages to churn it out and get you get you something decent, right?
14:35Whenever whenever there's not it like he just he he does not get there for you.
14:39And so if you even believe in Brooks to a certain degree that he could be like a 40% participant, I think he'll I I think
14:45he'll take the job. But even it even if you think he could get to a 40% participant, you at that point you've
14:51already nuked Chuba Hubard.
14:52>> Yeah.
14:52>> And so why like why why not take the guy that might start out at 40 and then grow his role from there to have something
14:58you know it's like honestly if if you were me like and you just you know you felt the same way I did except maybe you
15:05just didn't even like Brooks I might even still take Brooks just because I'd want the devil I don't know instead of
15:10the devil that I already do.
15:11>> Yeah, I'm with you. And I think if we look at like trends here, Dave Canales for multiple seasons has had like an a
15:18big ADP win at running back. Rashad White uh when he was in Tampa Bay, that was a huge one. When he gets Chuba
15:25Hubard, the year where Canales's first year, Chuba Hubard, that was sort of like the ultimate peak Hubard season.
15:31And the guy was a warrior. The guy plays extremely hard, but he was really a compiler that year. Benefited from a lot
15:37of great volume. It was the thing Theo was like every week I do this show on I have my roto grinder show I do this show
15:43with Derek Cardi and he has the blitz projection system right and he just he weighs all this volume like it's the
15:49volume stuff and like Chuba would always be so high in the blitz I'm like but Cardi he sucks. Yeah. Yeah. I think the
15:55uh even the even the big big chuba backers would probably say that he needs that volume. Whereas Brooks, if it's a
16:0150-50 time share to start out, I could see a scenario where it's like Rico Dowel and it'll be like a slow drum beat
16:07and Brooks is just so much more efficient. We already know Chuba Hubard is one of like the I think he's like had
16:12like the least efficient receiving season from any running back. Like he doesn't he doesn't have any explosive plays whatsoever. Like doesn't compile
16:20any explosive. That's not not like hyperbole. like he literally doesn't rip off any explosive runs or explosive catch runs after the catch. So like it I
16:28think it's going to be Brooks and I think the trend continues. We saw it last year with Dael saw the year the
16:32year before with Chuba. We saw it with Rashad White. Dave Canal is like a running back whisperer and I think we
16:37see it with Brooks this year. And yeah, Alex makes a great point. You don't have to take him as highly as I am in like an
16:42FFPC NFC league. Um in other formats he's he's way cheaper and I think you want to take advantage of that if your
16:48draft is upcoming. Make sure you check out Roto Wire. We have league sync. We have the the draft assistant. We have
16:54all sorts of tools that can help you with your draft. And Alex, I think when you're drafting this year, I think one
17:00big takeaway that I think me and you and a number of other analysts are are having is it feels sort of like the year
17:07of the tight end where there's some exceptional potential outcomes at the position and it's a big changing the guard the position where a lot of the
17:16guys were into are in their first year or excuse me their second year, their third year. Let's talk about two ends of
17:23ends extreme ends here. How high should be drafters be willing to push up Brock Bowers? And let's talk about Tyler Warren, a player that I know you've
17:33talked about. If you're drafting in certain formats, Bowowers in the second round, the two three turn if you're in tight end premium higher than that, but
17:40then you're getting Tyler Warren significantly discounted. When you look at the Trey McBride, Coloulston Lovelin tier, like Warren's expensive, but he's
17:50going well behind those guys. both have a chance to be absolute PPR cheat codes, >> dude. Yeah. In in non like in
17:58non-tighten premium um you're you're looking at Bowers like I don't like here's the can like here's the thing
18:09about Bowers. Um he's a guy who we might be talking about like if if he was on a better team or so like we'd be talking
18:16about him like Groank.
18:17>> Yeah. like but here but the thing is he's been hurt. He's been a little bit hurt. he's been banged up and he's had
18:24to play through it and and whenever he does it's like it it's been so frustrating having Bowers because it's like if you have him and you know not
18:31frustrating because he's been good in like Dynasty and stuff like that when he's been in he's been incredibly awesome but as a guy who has so much
18:38Brock Bowers because whenever I look at it and I can evaluate him and I can just he Brock Bowers is I just he's an he's an incredible
18:48player. He's just like so very good, so talented, so skilled, just a masterful um framer of the football and an adjuster to the football and and just
18:59catcher of the football and then just his ability to get up field and the fact that he's you know, he started out doing
19:05it so young in the SEC and like he never let down and at every step he's always been better and better and better and
19:11you know it's always been doubted and people have just been like well you know he just comes in and he's like at every
19:17level it's just he's been he's been incredible. He's one of like he's he's he's one of my favorite players in the NFL. I just I think he's
19:26incredible to watch and it's like this year it feels like he's coming in healthy this year.
19:30>> Yeah.
19:30>> And and the and and and the Raiders like they have they have nobody else. They have they have Jaylen Naylor and Trey
19:37Tucker as far as the receiving game. I mean, I guess Michael Mayer's still there, but like, you know, um Kirk Cousins has been like, yeah, you know,
19:48he's been kind of kind of dead recently, but um we've seen him in recent years like been fine. I think he can probably
19:56still get the ball out to where Bowowers operates. And with Bowers, you you you just just get the ball near him and and
20:01he's going to he's he's going to catch it and he's going to get yards after catch and he's going to be explosive
20:06doing it. Um, I think they might have learned, you know, I know it's a new regime, but I think they would have
20:11learned their lesson last year. You know, if something if something comes up, don't make them try and play through it. Um, you know, I I would just I would
20:19think that anybody coming in, a new staff, they would just come in, they would look and be like, "All right, what
20:23do we have here offensively? What are we going to do? We probably going to have Mendoza come in at some point here. Um,
20:30how how are we going to run this offense?" And how can you look at that offense and say anything besides like,
20:33well, of course, we're going to run the ball with Ashton Genti, but we got to get the football to Brock Powers.
20:37I mean, it's like it's it's one of the most obvious clear cases that I can even imagine. The only thing that
20:43comes up with it is like um you know, there there is an opportunity cost, right? there is an opportunity cost having to you know pass up on the
20:53you know to take him you're going to have to pass up on a Ken Walker or an AJ Brown who I also really like or you know
20:59if like sometimes like a Devon Achan will fall to the spot you know where where he's going which I think is fine
21:04I'm I'm kind of worried about Achan too right but you know some of these running backs these are like there's a pocket of
21:10running backs where it's like gosh if like if an Omari Hampton falls to me there at the end of the second or a
21:15Chase Brown it sometimes hurts to take a take a tight Man, my favorite builds, my favorite favorite favorite builds are when I can start out like at the 103 or
21:25the or the or the 102. Um, and I can and I can the 103 mainly, right? To where I can get to where I could get Puka and
21:34then I can come back and say, "All right, like Chase or like Omar and Hampton Falls to to the end of the
21:38second." And I say, "I'm going to take him to Bowowers Falls and then Bower Falls to to the beginning of the third
21:43and [laughter] I start out with I start out with Hampton, Bowers, Puka." Like that's something that can happen. It doesn't happen often, but boy is that
21:51the dream build whenever it starts like that.
21:54>> Yeah. No, for sure. And I think what's interesting, I had Ryan Paganetti who was with the Raiders last year and blew
21:59my mind where their intention last year was to get him like the all-time record for receptions in a season and it just
22:06sort of fell apart and and now you've got Clint Kubak there where we saw how Kubak was able to use Jackson Smith and
22:14Jigba. It's not like a exact like forl like, but I think in terms of the first read rate, the target share, those could
22:22be identical. And you're talking about Bowowers, if that sort of usage happens, then he's [snorts] going to break fantasy football this year, even if the
22:30offense is like bottom 10. Paganetti also, I highly recommend anybody who didn't listen to this one, talked about how their intention last year was also
22:38to use Brock Bowers in in some of that tush push uh usage and get him the ball in like some Wildcats, which literally
22:45blew my mind that I almost fell out of my chair.
22:48>> Is this a guy that was with the Raiders?
22:50>> With the Raiders last year. He was Yeah, he was with the Raiders last year.
22:54Highly recommend it. It was a really good one. Um but that that like blew my mind. So, it's like now you've got Clint
23:00Kubak coming in. Last year it was sort of a bad situation where you had Chip Kelly sort of lost his fastball a little
23:08bit and you had, you know, offensive line concerns big time. This year they've spent money on the O line.
23:14They've got Clint Kubak, one of the best play callers in the NFL. So, I'm there.
23:18Talk about Tyler Warren, though. So, let's say you miss on Bowowers. Let's say you don't want to spend the money.
23:24>> That's the thing. It's like if you get Warren, it's like I and I think I'll probably, you know, um I I don't I don't know like my hire like
23:34I don't I don't see that much of a difference between him and and Coloulston Loveland. I don't know if I'm in the minority there. Um I liked Warren
23:41better as a prospect coming out than I than I did Coloulston Loveland. I I don't think I'm on an island there. Am I
23:46on an island that I thought he was better coming out?
23:49>> No, I think there was it was I think it was there was uh it was split. I do this with a lot of people and and I think it
23:54was it's also an okay one to come out of it and say I really like both of them and I think they're both sort of elite
24:00players at the position >> prospect make a difference. I've always kind of had them in the same bucket.
24:05It's like why is Lovelin going a round ahead round or two ahead? Um uh I you know here's the here's my thing with
24:12Tyler Warren and the thing I always talk about with Cody because at roster watch we do the the weekly um like the player
24:18prop cheat sheet that's been it's been a it's it's been a it's been a really profitable thing but we to be able to
24:25get it there we have to sometimes look at these weird props and kind of identify some you know it's I don't
24:30think you're gonna win long term by always just s saying all right he's gonna go over this receiving yards or something but one of the edges we had
24:36last year was this stuff with Tyler Warren reception overs in the first quarter, right? They would give him like a one
24:44and a half receptions in the first quarter and every time we'd say like, "Well, that well that's a lock." Because we we we we'd identified that what they
24:52had done in their game plan is in their first scripted 15 plays, there were always at least two or three that were
24:57going to Warren, right? Always, always, always. What that tells me is that, you know, for one, we know that that organization has big-time buy into that
25:06guy. We for two, we know that he's super talented and super reliable and he's been really good and productive. For three, we know that there's an
25:14organizational thought based on the way that he was scripted in last year to start these football games that they wanted to make him a f at least to start
25:23out the game. There was there was intentionality to make him a focal point in in the passing game. Okay. I look to
25:29this season. I don't know what's happening with Alec Pierce exactly coming into the year. I personally think he's going to be fine, right? I think
25:35that they've known about this issue.
25:37They've managed it uh appropriately and he should be good to go by the start of the season. I do think that it's really
25:44damaging for him that he if he's going to be in this role where like Steven Holder saying like they envision him for
25:49to being now a 10 11 target per game guy. It's like well when did he learn how to run all those new routes and
25:54stuff like he's he's been hurt all all spring and summer. Um but I think he'll be fine. But if he's not if he's held a
26:01little bit back of course we know Michael Pitman's gone. Um, I I just I I wonder I like if if if they if they come
26:11out and they start peppering Tyler Warren again the same way, which I have every reason to believe that they will, right? When when are they going to stop?
26:21>> Yeah, I think that's I mean I just like like it's it's just going to continue all game. There's not going to be
26:27anything to pivot off of to change up to.
26:30>> He's he's sort of a matchup nightmare.
26:32And then like we talked about like the tush push stuff and you know the potential wildcat formations like we saw at Penn State. Maybe that's the little
26:41more of like the Taesm Hill dream for him is also there. Um we know when we look at that roster there's not like a
26:48ton of skill position players. I mean, the the the top four are very solid with Pierce, Josh DS, Tyler Warren, and
26:55certainly Jonathan Taylor's going to get as much as he can handle, but when you look at like it's like Seth McGawan, DJ
27:02Giddens kind of battling it out, there's not necessarily like a running back that's going to carve out a weekly role behind Taylor, even if they say they
27:08want to do it. Maybe we end up getting a scenario where Tyler Warren gets Trey McBrideish usage as like a target share
27:18and and overall targets get him to the 135ish 140 range. I don't think that's out of the question. And he also gets
27:25four rushing touchdowns.
27:28>> Yeah. So it's like it's it's crazy like and you talk, you know, for as much as we just talked about Bowers, it's like
27:34how can you how can you not want Warren?
27:37And then the other thing is it's like we we got this gift of this group. I I do I think you're I think it's bad if you
27:44don't take a if you don't take a tight end this year before before you get to like and I think the Harold Fannon,
27:51Tucker Craft, Sam Leaporta, Kyle Pittz area, it's like with those guys especially where where where they're going, right? That's when you start
27:58getting into these like wide receiver where those guys start to go, right? As you start getting into these wide receiver 30-ish types of players, right?
28:06where you're starting to, you know, like you feel fine about them, but those are like the Alec Pierces or guys that are a
28:12little bit more nebulous like some of the the Jacksonville guys or like Jordan Tyson where he might be a little bit
28:17worried about the a little bit worried about the injury or you know DK Metaf what does it mean with Rogers and his
28:23role and how Pitman affects him or Marvin Harrison just has looked horrible and you don't want to have any you know
28:30have any Cardinals like that's the opportunity cost for the tight ends in that area right and so I just feel like
28:37this it's it's a you've said it earlier I haven't really ever put it like this but yeah it's a year it's a good year
28:42for tight ends and let me also point out that Cody just the just um last week or I forgot when it was man he's been to
28:50like you know five >> Cody Cody Carpenter will be on a pod with me in August uh that's Alex does pods with Cody Carpenter Cody's my guy
28:58Cody is all over the place I think today I talked to him um and we're recording this on Friday uh Cody was just at Tampa
29:05Bay Bucks training camp yesterday. Maybe was that two days, Alex, or one day?
29:10>> That was actually Byron that was >> Oh, that was Byron. Excuse me.
29:13>> That was Byron.
29:14>> Okay. So, you're all over. Cody's today is is uh is he's Atlanta Falcons training camp and he's hitting Clemson.
29:21>> Yeah. So, I think today is a Today was a joint with Atlanta and somebody else.
29:26And yeah, I think he's going to Clemson this afternoon. Um but the uh but but the um anyway he was saying he he he was at
29:35Chief's camp when he when he was driving down from men from Vikings camp. He was hit Chiefs camp on the way down here to
29:41Austin to come to Longhorns camp. So he's Dude, he's been all over the country.
29:44>> Cody puts it in, man. Cody's Cody's a Cody's a long driver guy. He doesn't mind a long drive. He puts in those
29:50miles.
29:50>> He really he really does it, man. He's a He's a big Bies fan.
29:54>> Yeah. Um the uh he what he was saying from Kansas City, I know it's gonna feel gross, but he's like, I don't care what
30:01you say, man. Travis Kelce is about to get a bunch of a bunch of targets.
30:05Gross.
30:06>> Yeah. So, we'll see. I think that, you know, if you need some kind of life preserver there, but yeah, I think that
30:11these tight ends at the very top, uh once you get down to tight end nine, um I I think you're like you shouldn't be
30:18one of the three guys in your league that doesn't get one of those top nine.
30:21It's funny because it this is going to sound like completely contrarian, but I had Scott Connor on on a Dynasty trade
30:27target show and I think for me I as much as Cody wants to sell the merits of Travis Kelce, I'd rather take other guys
30:34in that range for upside and I think the way to play Travis Kelce this year is baseball and also in Dynasty because in
30:42Dynasty he costs you literally nothing.
30:45And if you're if you're not good at tight end in Dynasty, then you're a contender, you can like throw Travis Kelce in there, get top 12 tight end
30:51production for literally nothing cuz unless the manager is holding him uh is a true contender, they're looking to get that old man off their roster. Um he's
31:00younger than I am, but he's certainly certainly an old man by NFL standards.
31:03Um let's keep this one going. You know, you mentioned the wide receivers that uh are in that elite tight end range. I
31:09think we both agree it's sort of the year of the tight end. Get yourself an elite tight end this here. I think
31:13that's an edge in fantasy, especially if you're trying to battle it out with the Bowowers drafter who might be getting 20
31:19points per game. But there the reason some of those wide receivers are getting pulled up is it's a gravitational pull because the mid wide receiver twos are
31:27awesome this year. I've heard you talk about him. Let's talk about first um let's talk about Z Flowers who got given
31:33the bag this year, earned the bag this year by the Baltimore Ravens. for paying him like a truly elite player. And last
31:40year he had a near 30% target share. Now you got Declan Doyle. It feels like it's going to be a career year for Zay
31:47Flowers. I think he sets the record for the most receptions ever by a Raven. I think it's like 108. I think he gets
31:53north of that this year. I'm excited for him.
31:55>> Yeah. Well, I just I I I don't ever like any receivers that the Ravens draft besides Zay Flowers, right? I just I I
32:03just don't. Um he has he has aging aging competition from from the tight ends, right? He has he he's had two well he's
32:12had two tight ends who have left and >> um you know it certainly you know not a guy who has anything to deal with as far
32:21as uh target pressure or anything like that from some of the areas in the quadrants of the field that he would
32:26deal with from his from his running back. That's not that's not how it works. And here's the thing with Zay Flowers. I've I've always said it like I
32:33I hated the I hated the fact like why do why do you not use them in the red zone >> at all at all red zone stats they are
32:43they they like unless there's something they've seen in practice that like I haven't identified on watching them on tape I think that I think this is a guy
32:49who's grew I would think that you would want him to be like some kind of you know one of these kind of whip route
32:55front pylon kind of kind of guys the same way that we would see them you know the 49ers use a dbo or something like
33:00that back back in the day like like he he he's a guy who I want to draw stuff up down there in the down there in the
33:06red zone down there in the goal line.
33:07Just get the ball in his hands, dude.
33:08He's he's one of your best playmakers, right? I think a fresh set of eyes, a new young fresh set of eyes. Um you
33:16know, like like it was it's very obvious that in some ways things have gotten stale there with with the coaching staff
33:21and the way that they with the the way that they operated the team and some of their philosophies and stuff like that.
33:27you get a young new offensive coordinator in there. And I think it's simply the fact that I've always loved Zay Flowers like as as as as you
33:35mentioned many not all but many of the underlying analytical numbers that that we look for have always been there for him, you
33:43know, like like get him more involved in the red zone. And we're talking about a completely different profile for the guy.
33:47>> Yeah. And he's one of the most explosive wide receivers in football. You talk about like explosive plays, catches over 20 yards. Uh he's he's right there. He's
33:56got the target share. And I think when I talk about Zay Flowers, you get people sort of in the comments where they're
34:01like, "Ah man, I've drafted Zay Flowers, a lot of his scoring was backloaded last year. He was a frustrating player." But
34:07when you look at the you look at like the metrics, 29 plus% target share right there. Route participation, 99.1%.
34:18The guy never leaves the field. He's on the field the entire game. Um design targets, he's way up there. And then you
34:24talk about the target competition. Right now the the hype guy in camp is Jacobe Lane, Elijah Serat, Rashad Baitman.
34:31Those guys are are like no impediment.
34:33And if Mark and then you've got the other scenario, if Mark Andrews is cooked and the market's not like Mark Andrews going sort of in that high-end
34:40tight end two range, low-end tight end one, maybe he's maybe he's back, Alex, but if he's cooked, then this could be
34:46like Z Flowers getting like we talked about with Bowowers, JSN usage. I took Zay Flowers in an FFPC main event with
34:53Scott Barrett last night. We took him at the 308. Um I I think he's really interesting. I heard I heard Are you Are
35:00you taking Scott Scott Barrett uh hunting? Is that was that that the rumor I heard?
35:04>> Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to take Scott out to to my lease. It's I don't think we're we're going to be able to do it in
35:09season, man, because I got the radio show this year and stuff, but the good news is is out in my lease there's a
35:14like I think Scott just wants to shoot a pig anyway.
35:16>> I think I think I I don't I wonder I wonder how he'll do. We'll see. Scott.
35:20Scott Scott. Um Scott and you were both uh both in the the correct me if I'm wrong, the Austin area.
35:26>> Yeah. Yeah. Area.
35:28>> Area. There you go. There you go. So, yeah. So, there we go. Little fantasy football interaction from two of my
35:33dudes. Um, let's talk about Acha Ibuka who I talk >> Can I also just Can I can I also just say about when whenever you like you
35:41just mentioned it's like if if Andrews just falling off and like they don't it just and if my and if the red zone stuff
35:47just comes through we're talking about the fourth highest average implied team total across the course of the season for the Baltimore Ravens and who's their
35:53best offensive weapon that's that's not named Derrick Henry, right? It's like it's it's it's Zay Flowers. Like don't you like it's just it feels smart to buy
36:02into. So >> yeah, a mill a million%. And then we also talk about like, dare I even suggest this? Derrick Henry's run
36:09extremely pure when it comes to avoiding injuries, but maybe there's a scenario where, hey, we want to keep the 33-year-old fresh. Maybe we'll give him
36:18like two, three weeks off. Zlowers being like the focal point of the offense in weeks without Derrick Henry, how else is
36:25Baltimore going to score without Derrick Henry out there? It's like get the ball in ZFL's hands at an exceptional rate.
36:30So, we always look at like the running backs with contingent upside, but I think you'd also look at Flowers getting getting some of those manufactured
36:37looks. We saw it years ago. It was like when Katon Mitchell went down, they started ramping up Flowers on a bunch of
36:44manufactured touches. So, I think this coaching staff seems smart. Um, and and I think we'll see it as well.
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37:48I I'm not going to even share my thoughts on this player because I've talked about him so much throughout this off seasonason that everybody's like
37:53tired of it. Everybody knows Zamecha Ibuka is one of my guys. I'm drafting a ton of them. I know we're sort of lock
37:59step on this one. I know Cody Carpenter is as well. The roster watch guys share my enthusiasm. Just how good a season
38:06could we be looking at when it comes to Ibuka?
38:10>> I was I I was a little bit worried from what Byron was saying from Bucks camp the other day. So feels like that
38:16offense is getting off to a little bit of a slow start, but I don't think that that's anything that the the offense
38:21always gets off to a slow start versus defenses, right? It's like across any level. You you could play high school football and and know that that's how
38:28camp goes. Um I just dude, it's like the the pieces have fallen into place. If if if you've if you've just got if you
38:38blindly bet on these Ohio State wide receivers [laughter] recently, you've had a you've you've had a pretty darn good hit rate and with
38:46Amecha Eggbuka, he was drafted to be their eventual their their eventual wide receiver one and elite talent out of all these wide receivers at Ohio State. He's
38:56the one that's the, you know, he's the one that's the all-time, you know, stats leader. Now, I know that he was there
39:01for four years, so it's like it's not apples to apples with the Garrett Wilsons and um you know, all the rest of
39:07the all all the rest of these dudes, but still achuka is an alpha amongst this among this crop of players that have
39:15been like fantasy gold, right? It's been LSU, it's been Ohio State. And um he was he was drafted to come there and be a
39:23number one wide receiver. The guy's got a 30% target share when Mike Evans is is isn't in the football game. He got off
39:29to a stretch last year, the first five games of the season that was unlike any rookie that I can remember. I mean, if
39:36like you put it to the like it's like I've heard people say this and it might have been you that said this. Was it you
39:43that told me if that happened at the end of the season he'd be going much higher like >> Yeah. The whole like recency bias. Yeah.
39:48>> Like like if like if it were like the Odell Beckham thing where like it where it happened at the end and next
39:53>> or I'm on I'm on Ross St. Brown correlary.
39:55>> Yep.
39:56>> Yeah. So it's like I mean I just you know it's like what are you gonna do?
40:00You pull a hamstring you're playing you're stupid college football has these guys playing to dang near February and then having to get on the whole combine
40:07circuit and the next they turn around and they're at rookie mini camps. It's like this guy hadn't had a day off in a
40:12year and a half.
40:13>> You know what I mean? He's coming into the season. He's coming into the season healthy. There is no Mike Evans. He was
40:18drafted to be No one's going to beat Mike Evans, right? It's like like he's not a he's he's not a Mike Evans-like
40:25player, right? No one's gonna be Mike Evans. He wasn't drafted to be the next Mike Evans. He was drafted to be their
40:30next superstar wide wide receiver, though. And and and now the gates have been open for him to do it. And you got
40:34a pissed-off Baker Mayfield is trying to earn him trying to bet on himself and earn some money this year. You tell me
40:39that guy's not going to look to a mecha.
40:41>> Yeah, it's you make a great a great great point on the on just how much how many college games he had to play. when
40:48you make a national title run, your season is like a month longer than a lot of these other guys. It's it's it's
40:55absolutely wild. Um >> it dude, it's No, it's two months.
40:59>> Two months longer. Two months longer.
41:01>> Yeah, >> it's it's wild times. But yeah, I'm we're we're all in on him. Let's talk about um just quick thoughts on Devonte
41:10Smith in Philly. Uh, and how how confident are you that he could put up a potential career year? I know you're
41:18also have some thoughts on Mai Lemon. Is there a scenario where they both pay off at ADP?
41:25>> Yeah, sure. Yeah. I mean, I I think they probably both will.
41:28>> Yeah. Right. I think they probably both will. The one thing about Dev like and the reason you're in on Dvonte Smith is
41:34very easy. There's there's no there's no more AJ Brown. And the the thought of Devonte Smith in the number one wide
41:42receiver chair is just is like super super appealing, right? If you do go look since AJ Brown's been there and games that AJ Brown's missed, Devonte
41:51Smith is not it's not like he's spiked.
41:53It's not one of these things wherever um there's super super big splits of as far as it's like a 14.5 point fantasy guy
42:01whether AJ Brown has played or not during the time that he's been there.
42:05Um, but I I just I do think that, you know, kind of kind of a new offensive philosophy like we talked about earlier,
42:12kind of fresh fresh set of eyes like whenever we were talking about Zay with how bad it was last year kind of rubbed
42:18us all the wrong way. I think the Dvonte Smith just just, you know, just remember Smitty from back, you know, from like
42:24the the Heisman years with Steve Sarkeesian, >> unbelievable.
42:27>> He's he's an amazing player. Um the the uh the um the thing about Mai Lemon and you probably know you you've probably
42:38seen this playing out in your drafts.
42:40I've seen it playing out just in mass simulations wherever over the course of you know say I like I do a run like three 3,000 of
42:49these things and I'll like I'll begin noticing I'll be like why am I starting to get 13% Mai limit? Why is it now
42:58after a few thousand I'm getting 15% of my car limit. What's h like what that tells me is his his ADP is falling. Um
43:05because I haven't moved him on my cheat sheet and so when I'm simulating these things the cheat sheets's picking him up
43:10and and and the exposures keep ticking up through these sims. I know he's falling somewhere. I don't know exactly what site he is because we're pulling in
43:18from all the different sites. He's falling somewhere. Maybe he's falling everywhere.
43:22>> I think it's I think it's everywhere. I think it's everywhere, Alex. I think it's like, you know, it's been a slow
43:26drip with Mai Lemon where there was you had the whole narrative that it's a bad fit because Jaylen Herz can't pass over
43:32the middle of the field, which is like I think that's just it's sort of a I think it's sort of a cheap argument that he
43:38can't do it or have they not tried to do it. I think they're going to try to do it with Shawn Manny and they draft Mai
43:43Lemon. They basically tell you that.
43:45Then you Nick Serriani and and all these guys are basically telling you they think Lemon can be an every down guy. So
43:50the whole notion that he has to play in the slot is is is also I think a fake narrative. But now you've got a real
43:56narrative that the hamstring people are scared of these hamstrings. And I do think that there's something to that where missing reps in training camp um
44:05it hurts a guy like Lemon. But I do think it's also a potential entry point for us where if it's nothing serious,
44:12we're going to get this sort of player where he has incredible toughness. And people say, "Oh, I I don't care. Theo,
44:20what are you talking about? But these NFL coaches do, and that's something that's very valuable when it comes to an NFL locker room. It's the kind of player
44:27that players gravitate towards. You think like throw out the name Steve Smith. Steve Smith like a dog. I think Lemon's got that sort of mentality that
44:34I can go out and be physical. Yeah. AR.
44:37These guys like NFL coaches care about that. Um, and it's something we need to pick. It's something like Cody Carpenter has the the dog meter. Like I know Mai
44:45Lemon way up there for him. Um, but Lemon was Bletnikov award winner. He's an elite target earner that has toughness and also like when when you
44:54start squinting and watching his film, you see some JSN, you see some on Ross St. Brown, you see that sort of player.
45:02Um, and I think that's could play out.
45:03So, if you if we're all agreeing that Devonte Smith could take on kind of the AJ Brown role in terms of usage, then
45:11Lemon could potentially take on somewhat of the Smith role. I don't think that's out of the question that over the second
45:17half of the year, Mai Lemon is a player we're ranking like within the top 30 wide receivers on a weekly basis and
45:23he's just in our fantasy lineup.
45:25>> Well, I mean, what are we what like people are just I don't understand why people are overthinking this. It's like
45:31it's it's Mai Lemon. You like you watched him play like what are we like he's the best he was the best wide receiver in college
45:37football last season. Well, Jeremiah Smith was probably the best, but he like if you're looking at a prospect, but like he won the bullet in the coff for a
45:44for a reason. Like it it wasn't for for nothing, dude. This guy's a dynamo of a receiver and a complete target target
45:52hog, dude. Electric shakes. Have Have you seen the way that he looks in some of these drills where he he has been
45:58healthy? Like >> And then you have And then you have Howie Roseman. I just saw it on this stupid whatever on the whatever training
46:05training camp junk I have on TV all day.
46:08It's like um they were interviewing him and like about Mai Lemon and stuff like that or what's the plan for? I mean he's
46:14he's he's he's like look have you ever heard of a guy named Cooper Cooper Deene? Like he was a guy that was a
46:19little bit banged up you know during our OTAAS and we had to hold him back similar to the way that we're holding
46:24back Mai Limon right right now. Um but we but we had a plan for him. We have a plan for for for Mai and I think that
46:30you saw the kind of rookie year that Cooper Cooper Deene had. So I I think that I was just like look I worry about
46:38hamstrings. I worry about it. But we're talking like ninth what what ninth round? Is that about the ADP you're seeing him?
46:44>> Yeah. A ninth round ADP for a player that was an exceptional college player and was a firstrounder and has a clear
46:50pathway. And I understand there's Dantavian Wix enthusiasm right now, but Wix has had a long time in the NFL and it's been like sort of sporad sporadic
46:59like like big game performances. And I understand Wix could end up having a career year this year. But I would want
47:05to bet on Mai Lemon. And if you want to double tap it, you can draft Mai Lemon and then add Dantavian Wix as like your
47:12last round pick and sort of hedge it. I think there might be some value there.
47:16Um, I'm really into it. Alex is stamping it. I want to ask you about one more player that's sort of moving up into fun
47:23handcuff territory. We're starting to see him move up in drafts and I don't think there's even a complete clarity that this would be the guy, but he's
47:31probably the best bet that if Javvante Williams went down, how valuable could Jaden Blue be in year two? Another Texas running back that you were very close to
47:40uh you saw firsthand has that combination of electric speed and passcatching ability. I think he was like 14 touchdowns one year at Texas.
47:49Alex, correct me if I'm wrong on that, but it it it could have been a high high one. High one.
47:55>> Yeah.
47:56>> I I tend to do the advanced charting and stuff that I do myself. It's funny.
47:59People ask me about like the their counting stats or how many yards they have. Like I don't know. I can tell you
48:03how like how how many tackles he broke and what his what his snap share was.
48:07Um, dude, Jaden, Jaden Blue, um, we all know what Jaden's issues were during his first year in Dallas. He acted like a knucklehead, dude. It's
48:18like that's what he did. He becoming even uh, how should I This is a guy who is taking a he's taken a secuitous route to
48:30to kind of growing up. And it feel it feels like he's it feels like he's growing up at this point with Jaden. the
48:36the challenge has never been anything regarding his athleticism, his dynamism, his burst. Last season we saw for Texas what it was like whenever they didn't
48:46have a player with Jaden Blues Juice like you know it was like you get to see how the guys were running last year like
48:53the Trey Wisers, the Cedric Baxters, these types of players, right? Supposed to be fivestar recruit type dudes. Um, and you just saw it's like, well, they
49:02don't like we're we're we're missing the Jaden Blue electricity in this offense from the run game. It's like kind of like we we talked about Jay Brooks a
49:11little bit earlier. It's like we like no one really said like we're we're we totally miss Bejan and Roshan now, right? It was like we miss Blue. Like
49:20like we we we miss that that that element. He's a great receiver out of the back field. Uh really really good
49:26outside zone runner. not as good a gap scheme runner. Um really good at getting his foot in the dirt and slashing up
49:33field. Um I you know he's only aund I'm not sure what he weighs in now, but you know he's he's always been like 193 195
49:41pounds something like that. So a little bit lighter than what you would like to be in every downback.
49:46The other thing he got in trouble with with Texas that coach Sarc would always you know he would get in the doghouse
49:51for some ball security issues. So m maturity stuff, ball security. Um he was a we're talking about a guy that like
49:58skipped his senior season in high school playing football because he he didn't want to risk getting hurt and stuff like it's it's just taking a moment for him
50:04to kind of grow up. He comes into camp with the Dallas Cowboys. He wears the stupid Louis Vuitton cleats. He gets
50:10blisters. He can't practice. It's like he got on the wrong side of this thing.
50:13All we've seen this year like he's the one sharing the pictures of it on on his Instagram of the team bonding
50:18activities, right? Um he's the one that's getting talked up as you know he's grown up. I'm I'm I'm telling you, Theo, the the main concern I had about
50:26Jaden Blue was just a was exactly what we saw. It's never been him as an athlete. It it it never has been. It
50:32felt like the Cowboys were dying to say just saying, "Dude, grow up." You know, it it feels it feels to me like he's
50:39certainly on the right path. And I I I think that dude, if Jaden Blue is just Jaden Blue and he's not bringing any
50:46bringing any chaos or trouble around, he could be more than just a pure handcuff.
50:51I you know I'm not sure he's the perfect kind of handcuff. I'm not sure he can go in and be one for one as far as what
50:56Javvante actually does. They're different styles of player, right? And we run into that. But we do know these guys that are kind of these one B's that
51:03are kind of pseudo handcuffs wherever their usage does take up a bunch if the starter were to go out, right? And they
51:08keep their sort of rule is that kind of one B's, the receiving kind of weapon and the dynamo out of the back field.
51:15>> 4.2540 was the rumor. uh that kind of speed, you know, and again, he measured at the at 4.38 at the at the scouting combine,
51:25but Texas Proday where, you know, I get I know the we can't trust the Proday numbers, but I think we can trust him a
51:31little bit more nowadays with like miles per hour data and us seeing it 4.25 4.28 seconds at Texas Proday. I agree
51:39with you. It's sort of a the Tony Pardish. Is that what I had him at, you're saying? Or is that >> No, that's that's what this that's what
51:45that that's what the scouts I don't know what what you guys hand timed him at.
51:48Gosh, but I'm sure it was pretty fast.
51:51>> Yeah, I I that's what I was I didn't know if you were like I can't remember exactly what it was. I do remember Jaden
51:56Blue improved at at Proday though from from what from from our stuff, but I don't have those those materials up right now. I don't even know where those
52:04materials are at this point.
52:06>> Lightning lightning fast for sure. Alex, we're gonna end the show on this one.
52:10Really appreciate your time. Make sure you check out Roster Watch, all the stuff that Alex and Cody are putting out over there. It's really good stuff. Um,
52:16and one question I've asked everybody on these shows is if you could know the final stats of any player in fantasy
52:22football, who would it be?
52:24Um, oh yeah. Um, it would be Daniel Jones. Okay.
52:31Um, it might might sound weird, but I mean you you look at Daniel people for like did people forgotten that they that that Indie was just a
52:42wagon last year?
52:43>> They were the number one scoring team in in the in football for how many weeks?
52:4610 weeks.
52:47>> I I I don't I they they were awesome.
52:50They like like you watched them, you're like, dude, what's going on with Indie?
52:54It's like it's it's it's amazing. Dan Daniel Jones was an awesome fantasy quarterback. He was he was on pace to go
53:01for like 4,100 yards, 25 touchdowns, maybe 10 interceptions along with 59 carries for about 250 yards, six or seven rushing touchdowns. We're talking
53:11about a guy that probably would have been the if he would have stayed healthy, he might have finished like the quarterback six or seven or something
53:15like that. Where's Where's Daniel Jones going right now?
53:18>> He's dead in ADP. People are drafting him like at the tail end of of QB2 land.
53:22starting to drip up a little bit. But I saw Shane Stiken today talking about I saw Stiken sort of looks very confident
53:30about how his offense is going to perform and very confident in Daniel Jones sort of bouncing back off the Achilles.
53:36>> Yeah. And so but it's not just for for for Daniel Jones, right? like that. That is something where I would say, okay,
53:42well, if I know that Daniel Jones is going to have that kind of season or whatever, uh I don't have my I don't
53:48have my um I should I should have Okay, so my blended ADPs here, Daniel Jones in nons superflex, you're looking at a guy
53:57who you are getting at >> QB25, QB24.
54:04>> I have QB23. So it's like Yeah. So like a backend QB2, you know, at the very very end of drafts like so that would be
54:12an obvious you just say we'll just just, you know, if he was going to have another season like that, you get get
54:17your free quarter back. Um and then but it's also like we if he has a if he has big numbers like that, we get to say,
54:25okay, well, we know that Alec Pierce is going to be healthy. Okay, we know that Tyler Warren's about to have to have a
54:30about to have a monster season. And okay, we know that Josh DS is going like all these guys are cheap.
54:36>> Yeah, >> they're cheap. Alec Pierce is cheap and his ADP is falling like a rock. Josh DS is like you look at the guys who Josh DS
54:44is going around right now. We're talking about like he's going around Theo, he's going around like Jacobe Meyers and like Jaden Reed and stuff. You know what I
54:52mean? Running backs like Aaron Jones. If if we so like if I knew that you know if I knew that Daniel Jones was going to be
55:02it would also tell me what whether the Achilles is a giant deal or you know because that's as Cody always talks
55:08about he's worried about the Colts because he's like it's the Achilles that's his that's his you know it's the foot that's his drive foot you know
55:14coming out of his drop back right he's like so I'm not I'm not drafting Alec Pierce when he's gonna be scared to
55:20drive off that thing for the deep balls and stuff like like if he can stay healthy like I know that going to be
55:25fine with that. It makes me more comfortable with Alec Pierce, more comfortable with Josh DS, more comfortable with Tyler Warren. Even
55:31it'll show me that the offense is going to be um one that's suitable and not one that's s at systemic risk for a guy like
55:38Jonathan Taylor. That that group is so concentrated now, especially with no Pitman. It's like and and we've seen last year like they they can be a total
55:48wagon. Yeah. It's [clears throat] like if if we if we were able to get that again, we might be looking at the single
55:53best like value as far as um you know extracting fantasy points versus ADPs.
55:59>> Yeah, it's a great point and and again people sort of are not are are really discounting the chance that they could
56:04run it back. But Stiken had that offense absolutely rolling last year. Jonathan Taylor was scoring like the RB1 overall.
56:11Tyler Warren was off to a red-hot start.
56:14Alec Pierce led the NFL in yards per reception. Michael Pitman was like a top 20 scorer in PPR at the wide receiver
56:21position. I I think it you're you're all over it here. And I think really the number one player to keep an eye on is
56:26if Daniel Jones and that offense are scoring at the same rate, then Jonathan Taylor is too cheap right now in ADP.
56:32We're going to keep an eye on that one.
56:34Make sure you check out Alex's work.
56:35It's absolutely fire. And stick with us here at Roto Wire. Dropping a show a day in the month of August. We're going to
56:41help you crush your leagues this season.
