Answering My Subscribers Discord Questions | June Mailbag

Ranks fourth in fantasy points per game among all receivers, behind Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith-Njigba, and Ja'Marr Chase, and ahead of Rashee Rice (fifth). Matt Harmon mentions St. Brown as worth consideration for an aging gracefully, late-career Keenan Allen-type role because he has become elite against press-man coverage in short and intermediate areas. However, Harmon expresses concern that St. Brown, like CeeDee Lamb, gets physically blasted and this toll could accumulate over his career.

Matt Harmon remains really high versus consensus on Brandon Aiyuk despite uncertainty around his off-field situation and expected move to Washington Commanders. In 2023, Aiyuk was a legitimately elite NFL receiver; 2024 was a wash due to being absent the whole off-season. Harmon recommends throwing him on the end of your bench in a rebuilding dynasty situation as a buy-low candidate to see what happens. At his peak, Aiyuk is a perimeter X receiver with a heavy diet of in-breaking routes, an archetype increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle against two-high safety shells.

Matt Harmon expresses concern about long-term durability and aging trajectory. While Lamb is an elite technician with press-man coverage strength, Harmon worries that the physical toll of getting blasted repeatedly throughout his career could accumulate and impact his ability to age gracefully compared to peers like Justin Jefferson.

Power slot archetype receiver who excels at zone beating and YAC; Matt Harmon prefers Godwin over Rashee Rice from an overall well-roundedness standpoint, noting his ability to get the ball in his hands underneath and run after the catch, with capability to work against man coverage in specific situations.

Matt Harmon ranks Chris Olave as the most likely of four candidates (Olave, Rome Odunze, Terrace Marshall, Ricky Pearsall) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. Olave essentially already achieved this in 2024, finishing as the sixth overall receiver in half-PPR points per game and ninth in total PPR scoring, right behind George Pickens' fifth-place finish. Harmon cites Olave's established status as a true number one receiver, the Saints offense trajectory, and his Reception Perception profile history as reasons for the bullish outlook. Harmon acknowledges a blood clot issue caused Olave to miss the final game of 2024 and notes he hasn't practiced yet this offseason, but frames this as a tracking item rather than a disqualifier. Olave ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game.

Matt Harmon is 61 spots ahead of consensus on Cyrus Allen in dynasty rankings, making him a strong buy-low candidate. The Chiefs fifth-round, day-three rookie wide receiver is 'the best man coverage beating separator on the Kansas City Chiefs roster' according to Harmon, who calls him a technically refined route runner. Allen wasn't invited to the combine (which Harmon found surprising) but demonstrates legitimate separation skills and man-coverage beating ability; Harmon recommends stashing him on the end of your bench as a potential breakout candidate, noting he's a smaller slot-based player who may need role catering but has legitimate separation skills.

Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth), George Pickens, and Drake London.

Matt Harmon compares Deebo Samuel's archetype to Rashee Rice, noting both took running back reps in their respective offenses. Both hit their physical declines well before turning 30 due to taking a lot of punishment from high-usage, multi-positional deployment.

Matt Harmon has optimism for Dontayvion Wicks despite past overrating as a separator. Wicks had a promising rookie year and decent second season; Harmon expects him to play a pretty decent role in 2026 and wouldn't be surprised if he opens the season as WR2 for Philadelphia. Key factors: familiarity with OC Shawn Mannion from Green Bay, Wicks' remaining ability to contribute, and Malik Nabers' hamstring injury recovery timeline.

Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth) and George Pickens.

Matt Harmon expresses hope that Garrett Wilson gets good quarterback play in 2025, suggesting his upside is dependent on the Jets' QB situation with Geno Smith. The implication is that Wilson's elite talent was hampered by poor quarterback play in 2024.

Matt Harmon identifies George Pickens as a contested catch receiver whose training camp performance actually translates to NFL games, contrasting him with other padded-practice standouts. Pickens is one of the rare players who gets rave reviews in training camp and delivers on that promise in actual games, suggesting his hype is justified rather than inflated. Pickens finished the 2024 season fifth overall in fantasy points per game, establishing him as a recent example of elite receiver production and serving as a benchmark for the type of breakout season Harmon evaluates in other candidates.

Ranks third in fantasy points per game among all receivers, behind Puka Nacua and Jackson Smith-Njigba, and ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice (fifth).

Jaylen Coker has graduated from deep sleeper status after securing a contract extension with the Carolina Panthers and delivering a massive playoff performance against the LA Rams in January. Matt Harmon framed him as last year's favorite deep sleeper in the league, but the extension and playoff breakout have elevated his profile and removed him from that undervalued category.

Matt Harmon remains higher than consensus on second-year receiver Jalen Nailor, noting he could run really good routes, separate at all three levels, and is a very explosive player. Despite circumstances affecting his year-one production, Harmon identifies him as a buy-low candidate and recommends stashing him on the end of your bench to see what happens.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba exemplifies the WR1 archetype that consolidates targets in heavy personnel packages. When teams go to heavy personnel looks and throw vertically off play action, targets flow to the best receiver rather than spreading to secondary options, making Smith-Njigba the type to capture those opportunities. His 2023 rookie season is framed as the gold standard for the type of elite receiver emergence that defines a true wide receiver one.

Perimeter X receiver with heavy diet of in-breaking routes; this archetype is increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle of the field against two-high safety shells.

Slot-only receiver losing snaps as Indianapolis shifted to heavy personnel packages last year; traditional slot-only types are not getting on the field as much as personnel packages evolve, contributing to the decline of the wide receiver two archetype. Matt Harmon cites Downs as an example of how teams shifting to more heavy personnel reduces opportunities for slot-only receivers who don't run routes in those packages.

Archetype comparison to Rashee Rice: both are high-usage receivers who hit their physical declines well before turning 30 due to taking a lot of punishment in their respective offenses.

Matt Harmon selects Jefferson as his pick for aging most gracefully among elite young receivers. Harmon cites multiple factors: Jefferson is a high-caliber athlete, the best route runner in the group, and an elite technician. Harmon projects Jefferson could become an even better version of late-career Stefon Diggs, maintaining elite production as he ages because his game relies on technique rather than quick-twitch athleticism.

Matt Harmon is 'very much in on Luther Burden' as a Chicago Bears receiver who will operate more in the short area of the offense under Ben Johnson. Burden is part of the Bears' positionless receiver deployment where receivers move around and play different positions rather than being locked into traditional X or slot roles; Harmon slightly prefers Rome Odunze but emphasizes both receivers can be liked simultaneously.

Missed offseason time with a hamstring injury, which Matt Harmon views as concerning for rookie receiver development. Harmon dislikes when rookie receivers miss any offseason time because they start behind, citing Luther Burden's 2024 experience as a cautionary example where he didn't get much playing time early in the season beyond gimmick stuff due to missing mini camps and OTAs. Despite the concern, Harmon believes Nabers is talented enough to still open as WR2, though he may play catch-up early.

Matt Harmon does not expect Hollywood Brown to play a big role for Philadelphia in 2026, questioning whether he'll be more than a special teams contributor or fourth receiver option on the depth chart.

Route tree expected to change significantly in San Francisco compared to his prior role as X receiver in Bruce Arians' offenses with Tom Brady; shift reflects broader trend of X receivers running more in-breaking routes over the middle rather than deep outside the numbers.

Perimeter X receiver with heavy diet of in-breaking routes; this archetype is increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle of the field against two-high safety shells. Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth), George Pickens, Drake London, Davante Adams, and Chris Olave.

Matt Harmon mentions Parker Washington as one of several newly added players to the Reception Perception site's year four player drop, which includes updated charts and player comparison tools. Washington is mentioned only as a newly available resource on the site, with no specific fantasy analysis, projection, or role commentary provided.

Ranks first in fantasy points per game among all receivers, ahead of Jackson Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashee Rice (fifth).

Matt Harmon expresses significant concern that Rashee Rice is being overvalued despite elite zone coverage performance. Rice posted an 83rd percentile success rate versus zone coverage in 2024 (8-game sample), ranking behind only Cooper Kupp's nuclear season and three Antonio Brown seasons all-time. However, Harmon identifies clear cracks in his game: man coverage score of 55.2% is the lowest of his three NFL seasons; success rate versus press (57.8%) is lower than his second season; career-high backfield snap rate of 7.4%. Rice is a zone beater and good underneath with the ball in his hands, but the Chiefs don't ask him to do anything beyond that because he can't. Despite ranking fifth in fantasy points per game (behind Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown), Rice is not well-rounded compared to other top-10 receivers—the Chiefs scheme around his limitations. Additionally, Rice is coming back from another knee injury and has taken a lot of punishment with several massive hits over the middle of the field last year, raising durability concerns similar to Juju Smith-Schuster and Deebo Samuel, both of whom hit physical declines well before turning 30.

Matt Harmon remains 'really high on Ricky Pearsall as a player' and believes he is 'objectively good.' Pearsall is currently behind Mike Evans in Tampa Bay's pecking order, making him the fourth receiver option in the offense. He faces headwinds including a crowded offense and injury questions, but Harmon rates him fourth among the four receivers discussed in the breakout segment (behind Olave, Odunze, and Marshall), suggesting he has some upside despite depth chart constraints.

Matt Harmon ranks Rome Odunze as the second most likely candidate (after Chris Olave) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. Harmon is a big Odunze fan and believes he could 'go bonkers' as Chicago's number one receiver. Odunze has a traditional route tree with vertical routes, big in-breakers, and intermediate/short area work that fits well with Ben Johnson's offense and Caleb Williams' arm talent. Harmon has more faith in the Chicago ecosystem than Carolina's for Terrace Marshall. Harmon slightly prefers Odunze to Luther Burden in the Chicago receiver hierarchy, though he emphasizes he is 'very much in on Luther Burden as well.' Regarding injury concerns: Odunze's foot injury comment ('this is my new normal') was overblown by Twitter discourse; he is practicing in full by all accounts and his head coach says 'Looks like the same old Rome to me,' indicating no material concern. Target competition from DJ Moore and Colson Loveland complicates his path to true number one receiver status, but Harmon views the upside as significant.

Ryan Flournoy is Matt Harmon's current favorite deep sleeper at wide receiver, having been tracked since midway through last season. He demonstrates ability to beat man coverage and shows explosive athleticism with nice route running. As the Cowboys' third receiver, he could step in as a verifiable starting receiver if circumstances change, positioning him as an undiscovered gem by big NFL circles.

Matt Harmon ranks Terrace Marshall as the third most likely candidate (after Chris Olave and Rome Odunze) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. While Marshall is clearly the number one receiver in Carolina (unlike Odunze in Chicago who faces competition from DJ Moore and Colson Loveland), Harmon is not convinced Marshall's number one status will elevate him to JSN/Pickens territory due to ecosystem concerns: Bryce Young must dramatically improve, there is significant target competition (Jaylen Coker, Chris Brazell, Xavier Legette), and the team wants to be run-first. Marshall is a good player but the ceiling is capped by his surroundings. Additionally, Marshall has a foot injury that has kept him out of practice, a concern that received less attention than Odunze's foot injury in Twitter discourse.

Matt Harmon gives Xavier Worthy a pass for his disappointing 2024 season due to a shoulder injury sustained in week one when he collided with Travis Kelce on a mesh concept; Worthy wasn't 100% healthy all season. While acknowledging Worthy isn't a technically refined route runner and needs role catering, Harmon contextualizes his down year as injury-related rather than a talent decline.