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Zay Flowers Is Prepped To Have A Career Year In 2026 | Reception Perception The Show

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

17 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
11
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownChris OlaveDavante AdamsDrake LondonLamar JacksonMalik NabersMark AndrewsPuka NacuaRashod BatemanRome OdunzeZay Flowers
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Player insights

11

Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeUsage10:18

Matt Harmon cites Amon-Ra St. Brown as the benchmark for red zone usage, noting he commanded 41.5% of his team's red zone targets and 50% of targets inside the 10-yard line last year. St. Brown's progression against press coverage—rising from 52% in year one to 75.6% in year three—serves as a comparable development arc for Zay Flowers.

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Chris Olave

NegativeUsage12:08

Matt Harmon identifies Chris Olave as one of the top receivers in red zone target share behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, noting Olave commanded 30.1% of his team's red zone targets.

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Davante Adams

NegativeUsage12:08

Matt Harmon identifies Davante Adams as a top-tier red zone threat, noting he commanded 30.1% of his team's red zone targets, placing him among the league leaders alongside Chris Olave.

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Drake London

NegativeProjection0:06

Matt Harmon uses Drake London as a benchmark for elite route-running and separation skills, placing Zay Flowers in the same territory regarding per-route performance. Harmon notes he personally prefers London when healthy.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeUsage3:47

Matt Harmon notes that Zay Flowers' high efficiency occurred despite Lamar Jackson missing time and struggling with his performance upon returning to the lineup, which negatively impacted the passing offense's consistency.

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Malik Nabers

NegativeProjection0:06

Matt Harmon uses Malik Nabers as a benchmark for elite route-running and separation skills, placing Zay Flowers in the same territory regarding per-route performance. Harmon notes he personally prefers Nabers when healthy.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeDepth Chart27:10

Matt Harmon acknowledges that Mark Andrews is back as a pass-catching option for the Ravens, though he notes uncertainty regarding his overall impact on the offense.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeProjection8:59

Matt Harmon compares Zay Flowers' route tree and alignment data to Puka Nacua, noting that both players share a similar archetype of being highly effective in the intermediate area of the field with high success rates on dig and out routes. Matt Harmon compares Zay Flowers' route percentage chart to that of Puka Nacua from the previous season, using Nacua as a stylistic reference point for Flowers' usage profile.

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Rashod Bateman

NegativeDepth Chart25:46

Matt Harmon notes that the Ravens are currently promoting Rashod Bateman as their clear number two receiver during the off-season, though Harmon remains skeptical of his actual fantasy outlook.

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Rome Odunze

NegativeUsage13:09

Matt Harmon compares Zay Flowers' route percentage chart to that of Rome Odunze from the previous season, using Odunze as a stylistic reference point for Flowers' usage profile.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveBreakout0:00

Matt Harmon projects a career year for Zay Flowers, citing significant growth in his success rate versus press coverage, which climbed from 62.9% as a rookie to 75% (76th percentile) in his third season. Flowers has evolved beyond a 'Mickey Mouse' receiver, with his screen route rate dropping to 4.9% while his usage on intermediate routes like digs (20%), curls, and slants increased. He maintains an elite 85.4% success rate versus zone coverage (92nd percentile) and has improved catch-point consistency, recording a 1.6% drop rate and catching three of four contested targets. Despite Lamar Jackson missing time and struggling with consistency last season, Flowers ranked 6th in receiving yards and 14th in YPRR since 2023. Harmon notes his route profile mirrors elite peers like Puka Nacua and Rome Odunze, and he is not a slot receiver, having played primarily on the outside.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

171
0:00Zay Flowers has a real chance to have a career year in year four of his of his NFL career here. Per route wise as he's
0:06coming to the NFL, he's he's up there in the same territory as like Malik Nabers and Drake London.
0:12>> Look at the release.
0:13>> There's your separation.
0:14>> Great route.
0:15>> Stutter and go, gets by clean.
0:16>> That is unbelievable.
0:17>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:22>> Zay Flowers, who you mentioned, had a really productive season. I was actually surprised when I went back and I looked.
0:27I was like, "Wait, he had 1,200 yards last year?" I did not I did not see him as a 1,200 yard
0:32receiver.
0:33118 targets, just 86 receptions. Didn't even crack 90 receptions. 86 receptions, got 1,200 yards, five touchdowns.
0:4172.9% catch rate. This again, career highs across the board in terms of targets, receptions, yards.
0:48Not touchdowns, but but in terms of catch rate as well. So, yeah, really great season from Zay Flowers. And while I was looking at his
0:58counting stats, that surprised me. But then when I looked at his reception perception stats, too, that also really surprised me because he has made
1:07significant, you know, gains when we're talking about man press scores to the point now where I'm like, "Wait a second, is this the same guy?" So, I
1:15went back and I looked and yeah, man, this guy Zay Flowers has made some significant gains, especially when we're talking about man press scores.
1:22>> Yeah, man. I mean, to your beginning point there, like Flowers, I think it's underrated just how productive he's been since he entered the NFL. And
1:32you know, he's sixth in the NFL last year in yards among wide receivers, which I know a lot of that came in week
1:3818. Just cuz it didn't count in your fantasy football championships doesn't mean like literally doesn't mean anything, especially because both those
1:45teams, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, were trying to get into the playoffs in that game. That was like a win-and-in situation. So, even though it does like,
1:52well, it doesn't count for it's it's still Zay Flowers wasn't not trying or you know, whatever. Like it was it just is random that it happened in
2:00week 18. He did kind of he started massive and he ended massive cuz his week one was incredible. So again, sixth
2:05in the NFL among receivers in yards last year. Since he entered the league in 2023, he is 10th among wide receivers in
2:13receiving yards and he is 14th in yards per route run.
2:18He is just behind guys who are pretty universally regarded as better than him, Drake London and Malik Neighbors. And he was third in the NFL in yards per route
2:27run last season. That was despite Lamar Jackson missing time and if we can be honest, not playing his best upon his return
2:34even when he was out there. Like Lamar had some of his worst games when he got back.
2:40From a statistical perspective, like advanced metrics perspective. So that was all this all that chaos going on and Zay was still really productive on a per
2:48route basis. Like he's just been again, he's been really good, he's been useful, he's been durable and at times dynamic.
2:56And you know, honestly, this was like a I looked at all that. I didn't look over the charting profile. I even looked kind
3:01of had a look in the mirror moment like am I underrating Zay Flowers? Have I not given [laughter] Zay Flowers enough
3:06credit for his evolution? And I think the answer is probably yes. Like I look at where he was in my dynasty rankings
3:12before doing the profile. I was like, you know, I think he probably I'm not giving him enough credit for just kind
3:17of how like good he is if the and if the stars kind of align for him, I think he could have a real massive season this
3:24year. And and the first kind of thing I think we should dispel about Zay Flowers and you know, this is just it's it's
3:32bizarre. I think sometimes it's just it's probably just a size based thing, but I even got, you know, got some comments when I was talking about like
3:40Elijah Sorat as a potential slot receiver, like the guys we were talking about in the Puka segment, like big slot player who could go from an outside
3:48receiver into be that power slot in the pros. People are like, well, what's going to happen to Zay Flowers? in like,
3:52yo, Zay Flowers is not a slot receiver.
3:54He he never has been a slot receiver since coming to the NFL. In 2023, he was in he was outside on 64.3% of his snaps
4:04sampled. He was at 59% in 2024. And then this past year, he took 61% of his sample snaps outside. He was in the
4:11backfield on 8.4%. It's like mostly as a motion option in the slot on 30.6%.
4:17Now, he's definitely an off-ball receiver. He's just a classic Z.
4:20>> Yes.
4:21>> And I think that's been consistent throughout the course of his entire NFL career. So, he is not a slot player.
4:26He's a Z receiver. He is you know, credit to the Ravens. They've never been one of these teams that is just kind of
4:32you know, whereas we complain about some of the other guys that are these really awesome man coverage receivers get kind of limited and pigeonholed to the slot.
4:39The Ravens have never done that. He has been a Z receiver his entire career.
4:42>> Yeah, and again, it's just you're right. So much of it I think is is based off of his size. He's obviously
4:49a pretty slight player.
4:51But, yeah, I mean, he's been primarily an outside wide receiver his entirety of his NFL career. Now, that being said, man, he was not great
5:01on post routes, but really good everywhere else. Again, his profile is just so impressive.
5:08And and to your point, just not I don't think we've paid enough attention to him. But again, he's just been really
5:14really impressive.
5:15He's been plus 80% last year on the dig, curl, slant. So, he's great on in-breakers. Again, over 80% success rate on the dig, curl, and
5:27slant. So, anything on these in-breakers, Zay Flowers is absolutely winning.
5:32>> Zay Flowers is absolutely winning on these in-breakers. And I think that's just especially the intermediate area, which ironically again, we were
5:39just talking about this with Puka Nacua.
5:41Like he's the almost like the route tree looks really similar if you just lay the two out next to each other.
5:47Like 20% dig routes, 9.8% out routes. Really good success rates on both of those routes as well. Like he's able to be targeted a lot in those
5:56intermediate areas and he doesn't run a lot of just pure vertical patterns. So, you know, he's kind of like the pint-sized version of this receiver
6:04archetype. If you just forget about the fact that he weighs 180, you know, something pounds. You just line his his his his snap, you know, numbers, his
6:15alignment data, and his route tree, you would think like he Why is he not Amon-Ra St. Brown? Why is he not Puka
6:23Nacua? You know, it's just again, he's a little bit smaller than those those two guys, which I do think matters. The
6:29other thing I think he's really One thing he's improved on and one thing he's been really consistent on, and then before closing it, I want to talk about
6:36where he really took a big step last year and where I think this is instructive going forward, but on the point about him, you know, kind of where
6:43I think he's gotten a lot where where some some things he's he's really cleaned up that he's not gotten credit for. Like if you go back and read his
6:49prospect profile in Reception Perception, Zay Flowers kind of talked about him as a little bit of like a mistake-prone player. And I think that
6:56really came kind of came to pass for most of his NFL career.
7:01You know, he's made a lot of bonehead plays, especially early on. Like remember, believe that was his rookie year, right, where he fumbled across
7:09into the like when trying to go into the end zone in a playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs when the Ravens were
7:14like the best team in the league in 2023.
7:17That was obviously a big problem there, but he's kind of cut down on some of those mistakes. Like he'll have a fumble
7:24every now and again, but he doesn't really drop passes as much as he used to. He only dropped a pass on 1.6% of
7:30his sample targets. He caught three of four contested passes.
7:34He's been really kind of more consistent at the catch point than prior seasons. He hasn't made some of these big mistakes as much as he
7:42did previously. I think he's cut that out, which is you know, a good part of his game. The other part that I he's
7:48just been so good at and I think doesn't get enough credit for this.
7:52He has been flat out flat out one of the best zone beating receivers since he entered the NFL. I mean, you look at his success rate
8:02versus zone coverage, it goes 85% as a rookie, 84.2% in year two. This past year, 85.4% success rate versus zone coverage. That
8:13is a 92nd percentile mark.
8:15>> Wow.
8:15>> So, he has been over 84% in all three NFL seasons. He's been a top the league in this mark. And I think what's really
8:22impressive, James, about this year is it his screen route rate really it's it's still above average at 4.9%. Like he does get a more screens than usual.
8:33That being said, like that's a much lower route rate than normal in 9% in 2023, 12% in 2024. Like he's
8:43not really used as a Mickey Mouse receiver as much anymore. And he's still maintaining these really, really excellent success rate versus zone
8:51coverage numbers. I think he does not get enough credit for how good he is at settling into zones and creating these reliable windows, particularly in
8:59the intermediate area of the field.
9:01>> Only 16% route participation on the slant route, too. So, again, when you're talking about the screen route coming down, the slant route, I believe
9:09saw a little bit of an increase, but it's just not as again, when we're talking about these layup routes for Zay Flowers
9:18it's a lot less than you would think.
9:21You know what I mean? So, he's he's out there working, man. Like again, 20% route participation on the dig route.
9:27That's impressive. Nearly 10% on the out route. So, 30% in that intermediate area of the field.
9:35Again, this is stuff with Zay Flowers that you knew that he could do, but when again, when you're looking at his 2025
9:43profile, Matt, I I just I've I'm really impressed with his growth as a player.
9:49>> I agree with you completely there. And And where he didn't have as many screens, you mentioned like the slant route, curl route, and dig route all
9:56went up. Like more just traditional wide receiver routes. And so I mentioned I wanted to talk about the area where I
10:02thought he really took kind of the most critical step forward in year three. And as he heads into year four in a new
10:08offense for the first time, I think this is really important. Like this is the most important note in Zay Flowers' profile. Like he's always been a really
10:15good man coverage receiver. 72.5% success rate versus man coverage this past year. That's a 73rd percentile mark. And it's pretty consistent with
10:24the course of his NFL career. 71.3% as a rookie, 72% this last year. Like he's kind of always been in that ballpark.
10:31>> Yeah.
10:31>> But the note that really matters here is this 75% success rate versus press, which is a 76th percentile score. That
10:39is up from 70 or 62.9% as a rookie and 70.8% in year two. Steadily going up. And that was all while facing a higher percentage
10:49of his routes against press coverage.
10:51Zay Flowers. And why I think this matters is because we read off all those stats at the beginning about Zay Flowers
10:57and how good he has been from a yardage perspective. Just to recap, sixth in yards last year, 10th since he entered
11:04the league in receiving yards.
11:05>> You know what stat I did not point out?
11:07Touchdowns. Not scored a lot of touchdowns in his NFL career. He's never had more than five touchdowns in an NFL season. I believe it goes five, four,
11:14five is Zay Flowers. So how Zay Flowers really takes the next step and becomes more nationally recognized as a number one receiver, if he can do it, if he can
11:23do it, is he's going to score more touchdowns. And I look at a receiver, and again, when we're talking about this
11:28archetype of players, Amon-Ra St. Brown uh last year, this is a quote from or this is a stat from uh my new colleague
11:36over at Yahoo, Josh Norris. Amon-Ra St.
11:38Brown owned 41.5% of his team's red zone targets last last year. That was number one among receivers. The next closest were Chris Olave and Davante Adams at
11:4830.1%.
11:50Uh St. Brown was also number one inside the 10-yard line at 50% of his team's targets inside the 10-yard line. You
11:57would think like Amon-Ra St. Brown's like a slot guy he's used a lot around the red zone. Well, yeah, they design a
12:03lot for him for sure. They design a lot of these looks to get him free and all that stuff.
12:08However, one area where St. Brown really took a big step forward in year three was as against press coverage. Success rate versus press coverage in year one
12:19for St. Brown was 52%, 68% in 2022, and then 75.6% in year three, not too dissimilar to Zay Flowers, the step he made against press
12:30coverage in year three. And yes, St.
12:33Brown is definitely bigger and a little more sturdy and physical I think of a player overall than Zay Flowers, but Flowers really showed that ability to
12:40get open quickly uh against man press coverage, and that really matters when we get into the tight condensed spaces of the red zone,
12:49certainly inside the 10-yard line, where things are just going to get a little more compact. Like he really took a big
12:54step forward there. So, uh and by the way, Declan Doyle, new offensive coordinator, obviously comes from Ben Johnson's tree. with Ben Johnson
13:01uh in Chicago last year. I know you're skeptical of the 29-year-old offensive coordinator, but again, just schematically shown an ability to make
13:09use of this type of player. I mentioned how Zay Flowers' route percentage chart is very similar to like Rome Odunze's last year, uh Puka Nacua's last year. So
13:18again, I think he's definitely somebody that doesn't have the size profile of an 8-to-10 touchdown guy, but scheme-wise and the way he improved
13:25against, you know, press coverage, this is the path that has to happen for him, I think, to reach that like number one
13:32receiver statistical ceiling is he's got to score a few more touchdowns. And at least we saw some evidence last year that he could improve, you know, against
13:41press coverage, the release moves and everything like that to get into those routes. There's something at least on on tape, I think, that shows that he can he
13:47can do that a little bit better now than he had earlier in his NFL career.
13:51>> Just to summarize what Matt was talking about there in his rookie campaign, 63% success rate on uh versus press coverage, and then it's
14:00jumped, and again, it's it rose up in 2024, and then in 2025, we're looking at a what is it? A 75%
14:09success rate versus press. So, going from 63 to 75%, that's a 12 percentage jump.
14:15It you just I again, you know, if you're familiar with RP, you realize that's a significant jump.
14:22>> Mhm, that's big.
14:23That's big.
14:24>> That's a That's big and chunky, you know what I mean? So, especially over a two-year sample, um Zay Flowers has clearly worked on
14:31that, uh and his release package, I think, has allowed him to again, as Matt said, separate quickly. So, 75% against press, that that is
14:41Hey, man, we can work with that. You know what I'm saying?
14:43>> [laughter] >> That is something that's pretty good.
14:46Um so, yeah, a very impressive growth, I think, from Zay Flowers. Um and by the way, I know we've been talking about all
14:52this like short intermediate He's separating quickly, you know, uh intermediate area of the field.
14:57Listen, man, 68% success rate on the nine, okay? Like, he's still like, >> [laughter] >> the guy's still getting is an absolute
15:03stud, absolute baller when when they ask him to go over the top. So, uh Zay Flowers is again, one of these players
15:11where I wasn't sure where he was going to go after his second season. And now in his third season, we have seen such
15:19tremendous growth. I just I'm impressed.
15:21I'm impressed. And and to your point, Matt, I was certainly one of these guys who have underestimated his production and his growth as a player. And I I will
15:30I will quickly fix that problem moving forward, for sure.
15:34>> He's a He's so interesting this year.
15:37Certainly in fantasy, too, just because I mean, listen, we're getting slowly closer and closer to maybe when my therapist is going to allow me to talk
15:46about Rashod Bateman, but still not quite there yet. Bateman though, right now, you know, they're doing the typical off-season thing where they're like, you
15:53know, we're we're really we believe in Bateman. So, we'll see. Maybe I'll Maybe I'll I'll talk I mean, by the way, I say
16:00they, I mean the Ravens. They're talking him up as their clear number two receiver. They brought him back.
16:05>> Yeah.
16:05>> And like I like Elijah Serratt. They obviously draft Jacoby Lane, who's a sacrificial X, in my opinion. Demonte S Walker is
16:13also there as a sacrificial X, but Yeah, I just think like you look at Flowers more and more, his route chart just maps
16:20really well to this style of offense, and I think, you know, he's just the by far the most proven player, not just in
16:26the wide receiver room. I mean, shoot, even even the tight ends, like it's like Mark Andrews is back. Like and and and
16:32okay, I don't know what that means, but Yeah, if if this offense is going to is going to be good this year, like I
16:38think Zay Flowers has a real chance to have a career year in year four of his of his NFL career here. And I I think
16:45he's I do think he's kind of settled into being an underrated receiver who definitely does not get I mentioned, like per route-wise since he's coming to
16:52the NFL, he's he's up there in the same territory as like Malik Nabers and Drake London. And you will find probably zero
16:58people that would, you know, that would put Flowers in that category, but and I mean, I listen, I I like I like
17:05Nabers and London more than Drake than than Zay Flowers, [laughter] too, okay?
17:08I'm not When they're healthy, like I like those guys better than than Zay Flowers, but his his production and I think his RP
17:15profile is a little bit better than it kind of gets credit for and no question that he um is is someone that is set up really
17:23well if Declan Doyle and this offense clicks.

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