Matt HarmonSource
Matt Harmon artwork
VideoFrom Matt Harmon

Zay Flowers Looks Incredible | Reception Perception The Show

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

13 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 7, 2026
Published
Wed, October 7, 2026
7
Player insights
7
Players mentioned
Topics
CeeDee LambChristian WatsonDavante AdamsJaxon Smith-NjigbaKalif RaymondLamar JacksonZay Flowers
Player analysis

Player insights

7

CeeDee Lamb

NegativeUsage10:18

Matt Harmon notes that CeeDee Lamb has 254 receiving yards against non-cornerbacks, using this as a statistical benchmark to contextualize Zay Flowers' usage against linebackers and safeties.

Insight page

Christian Watson

NegativeUsage10:26

Matt Harmon notes that Christian Watson has 216 receiving yards against non-cornerbacks, using this as a statistical benchmark to contextualize Zay Flowers' usage against linebackers and safeties.

Insight page

Davante Adams

NegativeUsage10:24

Matt Harmon notes that Davante Adams has 220 receiving yards against non-cornerbacks, using this as a statistical benchmark to contextualize Zay Flowers' usage against linebackers and safeties.

Insight page

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NegativeUsage10:15

Matt Harmon notes that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 349 receiving yards against non-cornerbacks, using this as a statistical benchmark to contextualize Zay Flowers' usage against linebackers and safeties.

Insight page

Kalif Raymond

NegativeUsage10:27

Matt Harmon notes that Khalif Raymond has 185 receiving yards against non-cornerbacks, ranking seventh in the NFL in this specific metric.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection1:54

Matt Harmon highlights Lamar Jackson's continued improvement as a passer outside the numbers while maintaining his status as one of the league's best over-the-middle passers, particularly off play-action. Jackson is currently dealing with a minor injury that warrants monitoring. His passing volume has been impacted by missed time, including a half against the Tennessee Titans, but he remains a key facilitator, recently executing a tight-window 19-yard touchdown pass to Zay Flowers.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage3:52

Matt Harmon notes a significant shift in Zay Flowers' usage, with his slot snap rate increasing to 45% and backfield usage to 13%, while route participation from the slot has risen to 66%. Flowers is being effectively schemed into layup opportunities, with 335 of his 352 receiving yards coming against non-cornerbacks. His route tree has evolved to feature a 29% slant and 21% dig rate, where he has been excellent, losing only two charted reps. He maintains a 92% success rate versus man coverage and is on pace for 1,500 receiving yards. Harmon plans to move him up in dynasty rankings due to his elite talent, connection with Lamar Jackson, and a favorable upcoming schedule against Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

353
0:00Let's start there in Baltimore, man. Zay
0:01Flowers is just going ham sandwich right
0:04now. He's had a 100 plus scrimmage yards
0:07in every single game that he has played.
0:10He is on pace for 1,500 yards receiving.
0:13Um he's catching everything, too, man.
0:15Nearly an 82% catch rate right now for Z
0:18Flowers, which by the way, that's a
0:20little bit of a change for him. You
0:22know, it's um it's I'm not saying he
0:24can't catch. I'm just saying the
0:25efficiency metrics haven't always
0:27necessarily been there. I guess the big
0:29question for me, Matt, is his
0:32utilization changed at all in terms of,
0:35okay, are they running him on different
0:36routes? Are they lining up in different
0:38formations? Basically, how is Z Flowers
0:41doing what he's doing right now?
0:48>> Yeah, I wanted to do a bit of a deep
0:50dive here on Flowers because his start
0:52to the season has been absolutely
0:55insane. Um, Z Flowers has run 56 routes
1:00this season, James. 152 players have run
1:03more routes than him, including over 90
1:06wide receivers. He is seventh in the NFL
1:09on receiving yards with [laughter] 152.
1:11>> And he missed a game.
1:13>> He missed a game. His quarterback also,
1:15Lamar Jackson, missed a great point.
1:18Like a half of this pass game against
1:20the Tennessee Titans.
1:20>> Total half.
1:21>> Yep.
1:21>> A total half. Um, now if we are being
1:24intellectually honest here, we should of
1:26course point out um the defenses that he
1:28has gone against one half against the
1:29Indianapolis Colts, which they were
1:31they're they're kind of a mess on
1:33defense. They have some issues. Even um
1:35Athan Calak Manis um a quarterback I've
1:38definitely I definitely knew who that
1:39was uh for the Washington Commanders.
1:42Seventh round rookie comes in and is
1:44just bombing it over the the Colts
1:46defense on [laughter] in in the London
1:48game here in week four. Then he missed a
1:51game. He played the Cowboys. They have a
1:54bit of a shaky pass defense to put it
1:55nicely. And then the Tennessee Titans
1:57really don't do anything well at this
1:58point. So those are the three defenses
2:00that Z Flowers has faced here with this
2:02incredible start to the season. But
2:05still, I think
2:06>> the outrageous um per play per route
2:09efficiency is worth diving into for Z
2:13Flowers. Just again to put it into
2:14context, uh he has gotten a first down
2:17on 27.8% of his routes. He is averaging
2:206.3 yards per route run. Um, just
2:23absolutely bonkers stuff. Some of that
2:25is the small sample size of the routes,
2:27the big plays and all that stuff. But to
2:29your point about Z Flowers from uh a
2:32usage standpoint, he has definitely had
2:35a usage change. I've charted now his
2:38week one half of a game and then the
2:41game that he played against the
2:42Tennessee Titans um this past week uh
2:45from from a reception perception
2:46standpoint. Now, if we want to talk
2:47about alignment, um, definitely some
2:50pretty big changes there. You know, Z
2:51Flowers, despite the fact that he is a
2:54>> smaller receiver, has almost exclusively
2:58been a full-time Z receiver in the NFL.
3:01So, outside offball, movement, does
3:04sometimes kick into the slot, the whole
3:05deal. Sure. Um, the from 2023 to 2025,
3:10he took 29.6% 31% and 31% snaps in the
3:14slot. He has been at 6.2 2 10% 8.4%
3:18snaps in the back field. These two games
3:20that I've charted for him so far, 70% of
3:23snaps off ball, which is pretty
3:24consistent with his entire career. But
3:2645% snaps in the slot and 13% as a
3:30backfield uh player. And some of the
3:32backfield stuff is indeed like he's in
3:36motion at the snap and the whole deal.
3:38But even the 50 plus yard play that he
3:40had in week one against the Colts is on
3:43a little angle route out of the back
3:44field and he obviously housed that
3:48thing, ran it all the way uh into the
3:51end zone. So I mean definitely the usage
3:54from a pre-nap alignment standpoint has
3:57absolutely changed here for Z Flowers.
4:00Yeah, Sumer Sports actually says in
4:02terms of the routes that he has run, not
4:04just pre- snap alignment because
4:06obviously he'll he'll line up um on run
4:09plays different places, but in terms of
4:10like the number of routes that he has
4:13run out of the slot, it's up to 66%
4:16according to Sumer Sports. So, um the
4:19slot rate usage uh in regards to him
4:21running routes out of the slot uh has
4:24been pretty high. Now, that being said,
4:27it's just the efficiency is through the
4:30roof. Like I said, nearly an 82% catch
4:32rate. Um, you know, I think contested
4:34catchwise, just from a visual
4:36standpoint, I think he's looked better.
4:38Um, and then and and by can I just make
4:41this distinction too for [laughter]
4:44my guys Flowers is wide open a lot. Like
4:49it is I mean it is incredible the amount
4:52of separation that he is getting right
4:54now. He's it's insane how open he is on
4:58a consistent basis. No. Yeah. And that
5:01goes to the scheme of this too. Like I
5:04think Declan Doyle calls plays like he
5:08thinks Z Flowers is one of the most
5:10electrifying players in the sport. Um
5:12and by the way he's obviously the proofs
5:15in the pudding. He's been one of the
5:16most electrifying players in the sport.
5:18>> Yeah,
5:19>> I think on I think I think Declan's
5:21on to something there, right?
5:23Um and this is what's really cool about
5:26uh Z Flowers this year and and I don't
5:28say this to discredit him at all because
5:30I think some people would do this. I
5:32think that's kind of, you know, I think
5:35that's a little silly to to to discredit
5:37a player for this.
5:38um on fantasy points data, you can look
5:40at um how many like like the exact
5:44players who are in coverage. And I think
5:46this stuff is a little tricky to to to
5:48parse out here. I'm not sure exactly how
5:50they go about charting like the player
5:52in coverage, is it near nearest
5:53defender, whatever, but I think this is
5:54still like directionally pretty
5:55interesting. Um Z Flowers has 335
5:58receiving yards this year. Again, after
6:00the total is 352. So 335 a vast majority
6:04of it when he is not covered by a
6:07cornerback.
6:09>> So you know other players other than so
6:11it's linebackers, it's safeties,
6:12whatever. Um again this isn't some kind
6:15of thing to degrade him. JSN is 349. CD
6:19Lamb is 254. T. Higgins like a true
6:22perimeter player is 235. Devonte Adams
6:25220. Christian Watson 216. Khalif
6:28Raymond lol by the way seventh in the
6:30NFL 185. So, you know, by the way, let's
6:34go.
6:34>> Yeah, of course. Like Khloe frame, one
6:35of the best receivers in the league.
6:36Obviously,
6:37>> obviously. Um, but this is what you do
6:39when you have a guy that you want to
6:41scheme the football. You want to get
6:43them layup opportunities. This is called
6:44good coaching and good play designing.
6:47Um, for a guy that doesn't just stick
6:49out on the boundary. Um, so again, it's
6:52not to discredit Flowers. Like, yeah,
6:54he's he's this is the assignment.
6:55They're putting players in conflict and
6:58he's roasting them. And I mean, you saw
6:59this on the touchdown play uh for the
7:02for the Baltimore Ravens with Zay
7:03Flowers this past weekend, you know,
7:05when um Z Flowers gets the he gets just
7:10an easy like crossing route over the
7:12middle of the field. Um the other
7:14defenders are put in conflict there.
7:16Like he's on the same side of the field
7:17as Mark Andrews and I think Matthew
7:19Hibner, the other tight end. He's the uh
7:21number three receiver inside. He's just
7:23lined up on a linebacker. Just quick in
7:25move. And then by the way, it's like
7:27kind of a tight window throw for Lamar
7:28to put that thing in there. Flowers gets
7:31it. There is literally nobody else
7:32around him. Scampers into the end zone.
7:34Uh 19 yard touchdown there, which is a
7:36red zone target by the way. Another
7:37thing that a Flowers like new level
7:38little usage here getting a target
7:41inside the red zone. Now, is it a jump
7:43ball? Whatever we think about typical
7:45red zone work, no. But this is what
7:47again good play callers do for their top
7:50players inside the red zone. They they
7:51scheme them these opportunities. So,
7:54this is a marriage uh of a player who I
7:58think we talked about this in the
7:59offseason has clearly clearly made a
8:02step forward uh always been one of the
8:04best zone beaters in the NFL. This is
8:06why you're able to dust all these
8:07linebackers and safeties in coverage
8:08because he's been at or above the 90th
8:11percentile flirting with that number in
8:13success rate versus zone basically ever
8:15since he's he's gotten into the league.
8:17So, he already had that, but he's
8:20improved every single season in these
8:21kind of one-on-one isolated man press
8:23coverage reps. And I definitely think
8:26you've seen that as well uh through the
8:28data this past uh through the through
8:30this season so far. I mean, he's been
8:31pretty damn almost, you know, just
8:35really tough to cover in in the man
8:37press coverage situations we've seen so
8:39far this season. I mean, the success
8:41rates are obviously insane, uh which you
8:44would expect because the production is
8:45of course insane. Looking at it right
8:48now, uh Zay has a n like 92% success
8:51rate verse man coverage. I mean right
8:52now he's just been crazy in these two
8:55games against again bad defenses and
8:56some of these are even even the stuff
8:58that he does get against cornerbacks.
9:00It's like these quick slant routes
9:01against press coverage where he just
9:02gets off the line of scrimmage really
9:04cleanly, gets into the route. It's it's
9:06the easy stuff. But when he is on on
9:08these linebackers and things over the
9:10middle of the field, that's when you see
9:12like, oh boy, he's going to make field
9:15flipping plays as he's done so far. The
9:18growth and development um from a
9:20production standpoint has been
9:21noticeable as well. 858 yards his rookie
9:24season, 1,059
9:27his sophomore campaign, so a growth of
9:30200 yards there. and then nearly another
9:32200 yards in 2025 when he goes from 1059
9:36to 1211 and then again he's on pace for
9:39another 200 maybe 300 yard growth here
9:42in year number four as he is currently
9:44on pace for 1500 receiving yards. So man
9:49the the growth like I said for Z Flowers
9:51is real. It's palpable and it's pretty
9:54impressive to see. So it's been a lot of
9:56fun.
9:56>> Good question. Um, last thing on on Z
9:58Flowers, too. Uh, the route tree has
10:01definitely changed as well. Uh, 29%
10:04slant,
10:05>> 21% dig. There's some crosses in here as
10:08well. So far this season, he's been
10:10excellent on those routes. He's only
10:12lost uh two of the reps that I've
10:14charted there. And like, yeah, it's just
10:17>> it's really impressive like that. That's
10:19a good marriage of this again, the
10:21scheme and then also what Lamar Jackson
10:23does really well. You know, you remember
10:25James when Lamar came into the league
10:27and obviously there was a lot of stupid
10:29questions about like could he even play
10:31quarterback, should he switch to wide
10:32receiver, whatever, all that nonsense.
10:34But the other thing that was really
10:35interesting was, you know, early in his
10:37career, um, he actually struggled Lamar
10:40to like push the ball outside the
10:42numbers. He would, but it was like, oh,
10:43he's so great over the middle field, but
10:44he can't push the ball outside the
10:45numbers. Well, now the the passing game
10:47has changed so much in the league that
10:49like over the middle is really what we
10:50want to see so much, right, with the way
10:52coverage schemes are. There's almost
10:54like this perfect marriage of and I
10:56think Lamar's has Lamar's improved as a
10:58passer outside the numbers too and you
10:59know having guys like Z Flowers and some
11:01of the other players is you know that's
11:02helpful too but still um he's improved
11:05there but still remains one of the best
11:07over-the- passers especially off play
11:09action the whole deal these real deal
11:11concepts so that's a great marriage it's
11:13like the intersection of that the
11:15intersection of Z Flowers's skills and
11:17then the scheme all prioritizing that
11:19over the middle work so all these
11:21inbreakers that you're seeing right Now,
11:23Flowers and Lamar connect on. It's It's
11:25been pretty unstoppable. So, um Lamar
11:28might be deal I mean, he's definitely
11:29dealing with some level of an injury.
11:30That's something to to monitor here.
11:32But,
11:33>> you know, it's not as if the schedule
11:34gets too crazy going forward. They get
11:36the Falcons this next week. The Browns,
11:37you know, the Browns can definitely
11:39bring it to you on defense. Uh the
11:40Bengals, that's going to be a fun one to
11:42watch because the Bengals can take you
11:44away on the perimeter, but they do
11:46struggle kind of in the spine of the
11:47defense there, too. So, I can just see
11:49Flowers continuing to to kick this up.
11:52And like I'm I just updated my Dynasty
11:54rankings a couple weeks ago, and I I
11:56think I still need to kick Flowers up
11:58even more. Like, how many guys do you
12:00really want from a Dynasty standpoint
12:02other than Z Flowers? I mean, he's
12:03locked in on a big-time contract. He's a
12:05big-time player. He's the big-time
12:07quarterback. Obviously, Declan Doyle,
12:10um, you know, is he going to be with
12:12this team for the long term? Does he get
12:14head coaching opportunities? He's a
12:15younger guy, whatever. Um, but yeah,
12:17definitely a lot to a lot of questions I
12:19have there about some of the guys I I
12:21mean, I think Flowers is somebody I
12:23might bump up a tier in the next update
12:25here in the next few weeks because he's
12:26just really proven it at this point.
12:28>> Uh, is he in the prime of his life, man?
12:3026 years old uh this year in 2026. So,
12:33uh, we shall see. But you're right,
12:35though. The next four weeks though, I
12:37think are pretty favorable for him,
12:38right? Like Atlanta, Cleveland,
12:39Cincinnati, Buffalo. Um, he can be
12:42productive in those spots. So, it's
12:45really interesting. and we'll see what
12:47he can do over the next four weeks. Man,
12:48he's he's lined up to have a I mean,
12:51just an absolute killer first half,
12:53that's for sure.

More episodes from Matt Harmon

6