You're Drafting These Players Way Too Low (And So Is Everyone Else)

Matt Harmon notes that Aaron Rodgers' current playstyle favors quick-hitting routes like slants and flats, moving away from under-center, intermediate-middle field passing. This scheme shift is the primary driver for the fantasy outlook of receivers like Michael Pittman Jr.

Matt Harmon acknowledges the criticism regarding Bryce Young's low passing yardage averages but projects that Young will exceed 200 passing yards per game during the upcoming season. Harmon suggests Young could function as a 'quality distributor' similar to a later-career Alex Smith within a more spread-out Panthers offense.

Matt Harmon views Carnell Tate as the primary competition for targets among healthy Browns receivers, but notes that Tate is unlikely to receive the same volume of 'designer targets' that the team plans to manufacture for other key playmakers.

Matt Harmon notes that Denzel Boston is establishing himself as a day-one starter at the X receiver position for the Browns, which will lead to more off-ball and creative usage for teammates.

Matt Harmon identifies the Browns' quarterback situation and the potential 'sunk cost fallacy' regarding Deshaun Watson as the primary risk factor for Casey Conceição's early-season fantasy production.

Matt Harmon notes that DK Metcalf has been missing training camp practices due to an injury. Harmon contrasts Metcalf's situation with Michael Pittman Jr., suggesting that Metcalf's game does not overlap as effectively with Aaron Rodgers' current quick-passing scheme.

Matt Harmon identifies Dontayvion Wicks as part of the Packers' receiver rotation, though he notes Wicks is currently behind other options in the depth chart hierarchy and is evaluating if he warrants renewed excitement.

Matt Harmon views Jacoby Brissett as a capable game manager who can keep the Cardinals' offense on track, though he acknowledges Brissett lacks the elite ceiling of a quarterback like Matthew Stafford.

Matt Harmon compares Jaylen Coker to Jakobi Meyers, noting they share a similar profile as bigger slot Z receivers.

Matt Harmon is significantly higher on Jaylen Coker than his Yahoo ADP of 64, recommending him as a late-round target (9th-10th round) due to his high success rate against press (75.9%) and the Panthers' shift to a more spread-out offensive scheme. Harmon compares him to Chris Godwin and Jakobi Meyers, noting his ability to beat man and press coverage.

Matt Harmon is significantly higher on Jalen Coker than his current Yahoo ADP, citing his Reception Perception profile. Harmon compares Coker favorably to Chris Godwin and Jakobi Meyers, noting his ability to beat man and press coverage at a high rate, which could allow him to serve as a primary slot receiver.

Matt Harmon is significantly higher on Jauan Jennings than his current Yahoo ADP, arguing that the market is too slow to recognize his value as a quality day-two prospect. While Harmon acknowledges Jennings' blocking skills do not earn fantasy points, he notes that this trait is highly valued by Kyle Shanahan and has kept Jennings relevant as a viable fantasy player over the last two seasons.

Matt Harmon ranks Jayden Reed as WR37, significantly higher than his WR44 ADP (outside top 115 picks). Harmon expects increased snap counts due to a shift toward 11 personnel and faster team tempo. Despite a 'lost' injury-hampered 2024, Reed remains a top-20 player in yards per route run and is expected to be the Packers' most productive receiver.

Matt Harmon confirms a new Reception Perception profile for Keenan Allen is forthcoming following his move to the Indianapolis Colts.

Matt Harmon notes that Packers tight end Luke Musgrave is currently dealing with an injury, which is expected to influence the team's personnel groupings by forcing them away from heavy sets and into more 11 personnel.

Matt Harmon uses Malik Nabers as a benchmark for route success, noting that while Nabers is a superior prospect and a tier-one talent, his route charts in short-to-intermediate areas are comparable to other high-end prospects.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to serve as the primary X receiver for the Cardinals while seeing increased usage from the slot. Matt Harmon highlights that Harrison Jr. is playing less than 70% of his snaps on the line of scrimmage, signaling a significant shift in his alignment usage and positional flexibility.

Matt Harmon views Michael Pittman Jr. as a strong value at his 121st overall ADP (WR46), ranking him inside his top 40 wide receivers. Pittman is a reliable asset with a career success rate over 80% versus zone coverage. His route success rates on flat, slant, and curl routes align perfectly with Aaron Rodgers' preference for quick-hitting, short-area passing game concepts, making him a dependable weekly starter.

Matt Harmon is significantly higher on Michael Wilson than his current Yahoo ADP of 105th overall (WR39), ranking him as WR33. Harmon argues the Cardinals' offense is undervalued and Wilson is poised to serve as the team's Z receiver. His proficiency in slant and curl routes makes him a key fit for the offense, and while he may not play a Puka Nacua-style role, he is expected to be a productive movement Z receiver.

Matt Harmon notes that Stribling's opportunity could theoretically increase if Mike Evans were to miss time, though he emphasizes that the ideal scenario for Stribling is to operate in a Z-receiver role while Evans remains healthy.

Matt Harmon uses Puka Nacua's route chart as a benchmark for route distribution and role expectations, specifically noting his high usage of dig, out, and nine routes. Harmon uses this as a comparison point to evaluate the roles of other receivers like Michael Wilson in the Cardinals' offense.

Matt Harmon ranks Terrace Marshall Jr. at WR44, well ahead of his 133rd overall ADP (WR64). Harmon argues that Marshall is an elite young talent who excels against man and press coverage, with Reception Perception data showing success rates comparable to top NFL receivers. Harmon believes Marshall's versatility to play both slot and boundary X roles is undervalued.