0:00Matt Harmon has crunched the numbers and he's talking about five wide receivers that he does not like at ADP. Usually our guy Matt Harmon is so positive with
0:10everything. We're actually going negative here, >> [laughter] >> which is a lot of fun.
0:15>> Look at the release.
0:15>> There's your separation.
0:17>> Great route.
0:17>> Stutter and go gets by clean.
0:19>> That is unbelievable.
0:20>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:25>> What's cracking everybody? James Gall, Matt Harmon here with you. The Reception Perception, the show, the boys are back.
0:30We're talking about Draft Kings. We're talking about Best Ball here. Uh and Matt Harmon has crunched the numbers and he's talking about five wide receivers
0:38that he does not like at ADP. Usually our guy Matt Harmon is so positive with everything. We're actually going negative here, which is a lot of fun.
0:47>> [laughter] >> Walk me through some guys here, Matt, that you are not feeling at ADP and I think we're going to start in Kansas
0:54City.
0:55>> We are going to start in Kansas City and yeah, I mean honestly a lot of this just comes down to the ADP on Draft Kings
1:01because there are Some of these guys I actually do find pretty palatable in other formats, whatever, but ADP on Draft Kings not going to be for me here
1:10with these guys. Uh starting with And if you're familiar with Reception Perception, you know that I do have my questions about Kansas City Chiefs wide
1:18receiver Rashee Rice from just an overall perspective, an incomplete player. Um and you know, that's that's part of it, of course. We know that
1:28Rashee Rice has some pretty significant holes in his game from a man and press coverage standpoint. 9th percentile success rate versus man last season in
1:36his charting. That has been kind of true over the course of Rashee Rice's work in Reception Perception. Now, 83rd percentile success rate versus zone.
1:43That is obviously awesome. He runs against zone coverage pretty often here.
1:4764% of his routes and 83rd percentile success rate. That's great. Cool.
1:52Awesome. And he does but it's where he does it a lot are these short passes, right? This is where he's most
1:58successful. This is where he's extremely highly utilized. 47% of his routes that I charted were either a dig or a slant in his reception
2:09perception sample. 13% screen route rate. We're talking about half of his route chart is these three patterns. This actually is the more
2:20telling chart for Rashee Rice than this chart, which obviously doesn't look good, okay? Cuz this is where This is where you get into I guess together
2:28they they tell one story here is that Rashee Rice they only ask him to do a small handful of things because he can only do a small handful
2:35of things really well. As beat zone coverage, and he's very valuable in his role doing that. And by the way, he's
2:42been incredibly productive, especially in a full point PPR format at wide receiver 13. You look at that, it's like, actually we're we're kind of
2:50accounting for the fact that he is an off-field question and an injury question.
2:56>> Yeah.
2:56>> Although, I would say that these results from a man coverage standpoint are actually worse than what we got in a
3:02small sample in 2024, and the immediate contention for folks would be, "Hey, that's cuz he was coming back from an injury."
3:09Well, he's coming back from an injury again this year that he rehabbed in jail. Uh so, >> [laughter] >> I got still a a variable here. But the
3:17other part of this, James, that I think is more concerning for Rice, and again, it comes back to this chart.
3:2343% slant screen.
3:26I think they signed Kenneth Walker to do away with some of this extension of the run game work in the passing game, the
3:34screens, the backfield stuff, the kind of designer things to Rashee Rice underneath. And they're just going to have a more traditional downhill run
3:42game this year. And also, they're going to use Kenneth Walker from a screen perspective. I mean, this is literally the worst rushing game over
3:49the last 2 years in explosive run rate by a pretty decent gap between them at 32, 2.9% to over 5% to the 31st team,
3:58which was the Las Vegas Raiders.
4:00Um that's just a fundamental change for us when you bring in Ken Walker here, and I think as long as he's healthy,
4:05we're going to see more of that and less of the kind of designer stuff to Rice, which you're kind of counting on that
4:10staying the same if you're taking Rashee Rice as a top-30 player in basketball right now.
4:16>> Can I also say this? I mean, I understand that he over the last two seasons has averaged just about 72 yards
4:22per game. So, when he's in there, he's very productive, right? So, and we're also talking about somebody who, you know, is just it he's just catching a
4:28lot of these short passes, you know, it's 6.6 receptions per game last year, 6.0 receptions per game last year, um uh
4:37in the in the year prior. But, I I almost feel like people are memory-holing the fact that the guy's only played 12 games the last two
4:46seasons combined.
4:48>> All these per game Like every stat with Rice, it's always per game.
4:52>> because that's >> doing heavy lifting there. Uh and by the way, not for nothing, Rashee Rice 4.69 air yards per target since he entered
5:02the league in 2023. There have been 112 receivers that have run 600 or more routes in that span.
5:07>> Yeah.
5:08>> That air yards per target, would you like to guess where it ranks out of those 112 receivers?
5:12>> Oh, dude, it's got to be bottom three.
5:14That's like tight end numbers, dude.
5:15That's that's so bad.
5:17>> It is 112 out of 112 receivers. Uh the 111th receiver is Greg Dortch at 5.23.
5:25So, actually a little bit That's pretty decent gap there between uh 112 and 111.
5:30So, uh again, you're I only say that to say not to knock Rice is cuz he's very valuable at what he does. He's good at
5:35what he does in his hyper-specific role, but it's the hyper-specificity that I worry about, especially because clearly they are going to run the ball more, and
5:43they're going to throw the ball screens and stuff like that to Kenneth Walker.
5:46So, Rice loses any of that volume and he's not winning down the football field as the air yards and the reception
5:52perception shows, that's going to be problematic for a top 30 pick off the board.
5:55>> Dude, by the way, I know we've talked about on the podcast, we haven't talked to it on on the YouTube side, man, but
6:00like again, you talk about that the lack of air yards. He's catching everything around the line of scrimmage, dude, and he's getting hit.
6:06>> Yeah.
6:06>> And so and and and again, much like a running back, but he's not built like a running back, but much like a running
6:11back, Rashee Rice is absorbing a lot of hits, man. They are asking him to go underneath, across the middle, a lot of
6:17short routes. He's getting tackled a lot. And so again, if you're wondering, okay, this dude's only played 12 games the last two seasons combined, hey,
6:25listen, I think it is fair and we never talk about injury risk for wide receivers, but it is fair. We've talked
6:32about on the podcast, we haven't talked about on YouTube, it's fair to talk about injury risk for these underneath wide receivers and Rashee Rice is the
6:39absolute extreme example of that.
6:41>> No question. And just guys that are going after him, um DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, um even Jaylen Waddle, like I would take
6:52all those guys, yeah, ahead of ahead of Rice. So.
6:56>> It's crazy. Okay. Uh Davante Adams, he's getting a little longer in the tooth, uh but it again, double-digit touchdowns, man, this guy's been a huge touchdown
7:05maker in in if we're talking about spike weeks in uh in best ball, Davante Adams does check some boxes here, but uh you don't
7:13like the ADP.
7:14>> Yeah, this is definitely an ADP one for me with Davante Adams where um he's the 49th player off the board, wide receiver
7:2124. I have a a few spots lower than that, so I just don't end up getting him very often. And it's not too much of
7:28honestly really a player take because I do think he fits well in the current role for him with the Los Angeles Rams
7:34where it's pure X receiver work and they lean into the routes like the digs and the slants that he still runs really
7:40well. I mean, these are some beefy success rates on the dig and the slant, but we do know that Adams, who is one of
7:46the best route runners of the Reception Perception era, is in some form of decline. 61st percentile success rate versus man and press, 48th against zone.
7:54Those aren't terrible numbers by any means, they're just obviously not Davante Adams numbers. So, and you have a little bit risk of a decline here for
8:00a guy who I believe will turn 34 in December.
8:03>> Mhm.
8:04>> And then to me it's just the guys that go around him uh for me like I don't really want to take the risk
8:10with Adams from cuz I don't think his role is changing at all. Like that would require Puka Nacua to seed some work and
8:16I think there's a almost 0% chance that that's happening. I think he will still be in his you're counting on touchdowns,
8:22you're counting on um you know, man coverage work and everything. And so there's a little bit of a narrow kind of path there for a top
8:2950 player at the position. And I mean, Jameson Williams goes not far after him.
8:34I would I would prefer Jameson Williams.
8:37Uh you're kind of looking at the same sort of spike week situation, maybe not full consistency, but I just think Williams it's an ascending offense, he's
8:46a player in his prime, I'd take him.
8:48Parker Washington goes right after him.
8:49That's a bit of a kind of a toss-up to me, but like Terry McLaurin, kind of the same thing. Christian Watson, kind of
8:54the same thing. Um for guys that I think have higher overall kind of like ceilings in their range of outcomes. You
9:01know, Mike Evans I think has the same kind of risk-reward proposition and goes six wide receiver spots later at wide receiver 30 on DraftKings.
9:09>> Uh so >> I just think to me all ultimately it's more of an ADP thing than a I'm super fading Davante Adams. I think there are
9:16guys in you know, even Romeo Doubs who goes after I'd I'd take Rome uh ahead of Davante Adams just from a ceiling
9:22outcome standpoint.
9:23>> All right, there you go. Uh we go to Los Angeles. We're talking about Quentin Johnston, QJ, 78th overall ADP, wide
9:32receiver 36.
9:34Um you know me, I'm going to fade him at all costs. It doesn't matter. But talk to the people about why you are fading
9:41QJ at at 78th overall.
9:43>> Okay, in this one we don't even need to do like any of the deep dive reception perception stuff cuz I've made this
9:48point to you many many times. Like you, James Coe, are still over indexed on his rookie season, which you know, was terrible.
9:59>> Yeah, I think that's accurate.
10:00>> It was one of the worst rookie seasons of all time. Okay?
10:03I get that. Uh however, he's he's improved since then. Uh well, you know, I'll at least prove that to the people
10:10out here that he has improved on some of the things that really do matter here in terms of his ability to win on some of
10:15these routes cuz it was like an all red route tree his rookie year, you know, first percentile success rate versus man. Yeah, we're talking 22nd
10:21percentile, 59th against zone. Now, okay, we we've improved for QJ. All right? Some of these breaking routes, post, digs, outs, these are going to be
10:29some of the big play routes in this particular offense.
10:33Uh I want to acknowledge that for QJ, but the problem is I think the Draft Kings drafters have over acknowledged it. All right? Cuz I think
10:41>> [laughter] >> when you get into the the 40s, I'm like, this is a good area to take QJ who won't
10:47be, in my opinion, the number one receiver on his team. That will obviously be Ladd McConkey, um who I think is a better fit for the offense
10:53and a better player. Uh and, you know, people are worried about he seated production to Keenan Allen last year. Uh the offensive line seated production to
11:01Keenan Allen in the short area, not Ladd McConkey, all right? That's a total non ball knower thing to be like, Keenan
11:06Allen got mugged by Ladd McConkey. No, no, no, no, no. Like if that if Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater played the entire
11:11season, we're not having that conversation, all right? Give me a break. Anyways, so QJ at best number two receiver on the
11:17team, you still got Trey Harris who, you know, has been dealing with injuries, but, you know, he could be a guy that eats into
11:23this snap share a little bit. They've got interesting tight ends. They're going to run the football a lot.
11:28So, I think if he was in the 40s, I'd be totally in I don't know. [ __ ] I think QJ was a great best ball pick there.
11:35He's steamed up so much. He's now the wide receiver 36 off the board ahead of DK Metcalf. I just Josh Downs is a
11:42player like to me he should be going in the 80s in the 90s with guys like Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison. Like
11:50Jordan Addison 99th overall player off the board on Draft Kings wide receiver 44. There's no reason this gap should be that big between QJ and Jordan Addison.
12:00You know, even Matthew Golden kind of similar bet too.
12:04To me I just would wait and take those guys. QJ I think is unfortunately just the steam has gone a little too high and
12:10like now he's a little bit overpriced for me. Even if I do acknowledge he is a good player. Bet well he's a better
12:16player than he was as a rookie. Totally competent NFL receiver and a good fit in this offense.
12:21>> Yeah, to your point QJ has moved up 24 spots since the game opened on Draft Kings. So yeah man, he has moved up
12:27quite a bit dude. His price has gone way way up and I'm I'm actually curious as to why that might be. It's not as if I've seen
12:37a ton of QJ highlights. I haven't seen a ton of QJ news.
12:42>> He's been banged up in camp actually.
12:44That's >> I'm so confused by it man. So he has moved up quite a bit. You're right. So overall he has an ADP of 80 and a
12:53seventh a mid seventh round draft price.
12:56I just I agree with you man. I I don't understand why he's 12 15 spots ahead of like De'Shawn Stripling or
13:03as you mentioned Jordan Addison, you know, Matthew Golden. These are all dudes that that sounds like I I think I'd rather take all those guys ahead of
13:11QJ and QJ's going, you know, 12 15 spots ahead of those dudes man. So Yeah, no I'm 100% on board with that. Okay, what's new is
13:21old is new again. Deebo Samuel is back in San Francisco.
13:26We know that Ricky Pearsall is out for the entirety of the season. Mike Evans is dealing with some, you know, soft
13:31tissue injuries. He's going 118th overall. He's the wide receiver 50. And even there, you're like, "Uh I'll pass." Tell us why.
13:40>> Well, I mean, I think wide receiver 50 is actually pretty aggressive for Deebo Samuel. I think like in the 60s we'd be
13:45talking, but um this feels like a hey, who do the Niners have? We know this guy fits the system. He actually was solid last year
13:53from a production standpoint, but this is a severely limited player at this point. Doesn't win down field. Only wins on like a small handful of routes. Um
14:027th percentile success rate versus man, 4th percentile against press. I know he's never been like the best press man beater. And he's still decent against
14:09zone coverage in these short area only routes. You know, some of the digs, certainly he can win on those patterns.
14:15Um but still, we've lost a lot here with Samuel at this point of his career. He's a guy who's taking a ton of punishment
14:21over the course of his NFL career. So, uh while I think he can still be a useful player for the Niners at the
14:26price that they gave him uh from a free agent standpoint, I mean, there's just not a lot there at wide receiver 50 for
14:33me. Uh some of the guy And he might like I think he'll be behind I mean, he might be their fifth option,
14:39you know? I I like in the passing game. Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, George Kittle, De'Von Achane, then we get to you know
14:45Deebo Then we get to, you know, Deebo Samuel.
14:47I mean, maybe he's higher than that cuz injuries and things. But like Deebo Samuel also could miss a ton of time
14:52with injuries, too. I mean, for God's sake. So, yeah, he goes ahead of Romeo Doubs. Easily give me Doubs ahead of
14:59Deebo. Um Jordan Addison tough with the injuries, you know, but I I mean, I think there's a higher ceiling in the
15:05back half of the year.
15:06>> Jaylen Coker?
15:07>> Like Jaylen Coker, even Khalil Shakir.
15:09Like Khalil Shakir is basically the same bet that Deebo is from an archetype standpoint, but probably higher in the pecking order
15:18and is younger in the prime of his career. So, like if you want this type of wideout, just take Shakir at wide
15:25receiver 56 instead of Deebo Samuel wide receiver 50. Um just not an ADP that I'm interested in here.
15:32>> I I'll tell you what, man. I would much rather have Rashid Shaheed, and Shaheed's going, you know, 20 spots lower. You know what I'm saying? I I
15:38feel like I feel like >> like different archetype of player, you know? I mean, it's like same thing with Shakir. He's like an underneath, you
15:44know, kind of zone beater, and you know, like I he's playing with Josh Allen. He probably is like the second or third
15:50target there as opposed to Deebo, who might be the fifth.
15:53>> Deebo Samuel his ADP on DraftKings has moved up more than 60 spots since game open, and I just feel like if it didn't
16:01move at all, I think I'd be happy there.
16:02Like if he was going around like pick 175, I'd be I'd be like, all right, cool. I think I can go take a shot on
16:10Deebo Samuel, even though I think he's lost, you know, two or three steps.
16:14Maybe he ends up doing something, but at 118 in the 10th round in the 10th Dude, come on, man. Like in the 10th round,
16:21that's Deebo Samuel in 10th is is outrageous, dude. Absolutely outrageous.
16:26It's like, man, what what are we playing? Like best ball from 2024? Like what's happening here? I don't get it.
16:31>> Great pick there. That'd be great.
16:33>> Great pick. Great pick in 2024, dude.
16:36Uh we will stay with the San Francisco theme, except now we'll go to Minnesota.
16:39Uh Jauan Jennings is 171st overall, wide receiver 67. Again, super depreciated price, but even there you're saying, you know what? You're going to pass on Jauan
16:49Jennings.
16:50>> Yeah, Jennings might be the guy I'm lowest on relative to all of DraftKings ADP here, and I mean, I know that sounds
16:57crazy, cuz it's like wide receiver Yeah, wide receiver 76, 171st overall player. Yeah, I I I get it. I'm I'm not
17:05even [laughter] going to I'm not honestly I'm not even going to show any of the route charts or anything, cuz this is really has nothing to do with
17:09like Jauan Jennings as a player, which I think Remember Jauan Jennings like signed deep into the off season, okay?
17:14Like the NFL wasn't gassed up about Jauan Jennings, who I think is actually I had somebody who like this is a good
17:22source, would know, told me like, "Man, the Vikings really want their version of Jauan Jennings two, three years ago when he was like a
17:31just a reserve blocking receiver because they really loved the idea of having having like a power slot big blocker.
17:36And now they actually have Jauan Jennings, but you see the things I'm talking about here. They wanted like a big blocker, a power slot.
17:43>> Yeah, yeah, yeah.
17:45You're Here's Here's just the brass tacks of it. And I think Jennings was not great on film last year. I think he definitely
17:51struggled in his expanded role as a boundary receiver. I just don't think he's going to have a big role for this
17:57Vikings team this year. I mean, he I think he'll be the third receiver, but like they've been excited about Ty Felton a little bit in training camp. Um
18:03he's probably just more of a backup boundary receiver, but he gives them actually some explosive juice after the catch. That's obviously not something
18:09Jauan Jennings is going to give you. But I think like here's the brass tacks of this, James. You're telling me we're
18:14drafting three three Kyler Murray receivers in the top 70 wide receiver spots, and like one of one of them is Justin Jefferson who like
18:25I mean, Justin Jefferson I'm he's going to he's going to eat, he's going to ball. 10th overall pick on DraftKings wide receiver five. So you're telling me
18:33he Kyler Murray's going to support the wide receiver five.
18:36He's going to support a top 100 pick in Jordan Addison as wide receiver 44. And Jauan Jennings going to get in the mix
18:41here? Wide receiver 67 all while all while the Vikings have been saying all off season, "We This year we mean it.
18:48We're committing to our run game. We're going to be more outside zone. We brought Frank Smith from the Miami Dolphins. He's going to
18:54revitalize our run game. We mean it.
18:55We're going to get the quarterback involved in the run game." They They were going to want to run the ball more
19:00overall. They're already a high high wire act passing game. I still like what What is the point of taking Jauan Jennings at wide receiver 67? Uh maybe
19:07I'm just like shiny new thing here, but I mean, shoot, like take Eddie Mitchell.
19:13>> [laughter] >> Take Andy Mitchell at wide receiver 71.
19:15I know it's like, "Oh, yeah, Gino Smith's wide receiver two." At least he's a wide receiver two, okay? He's a wide receiver two
19:21on that team.
19:23Yo, give me Pat Bryant.
19:25You know, wide receiver three in Denver, sure. But, like, they're going to throw the ball more than the Minnesota Vikings this year. How about Keelan Douglas?
19:32Keelan Douglas, yeah, take like any of these sleepers.
19:35Don't take Jauan Jennings at wide receiver 67. I just like don't I don't There's There's no upside and I really don't even think there's like a floor
19:43here for Jennings, either. He's not one of these guys I can just say like, "Okay, yeah, I'm hunting for weeks here
19:49later in my draft."
19:50You know, Keenan Allen when the 60s, like, I'm hunting for just guys that are going to be a week. I don't even know
19:55that there's that here with Jennings.
19:57>> Yeah, there you go. You got Isaac TeSlaa, De'Von Achane, who are going way later. Malachi Fields is going later, too. I Again, somebody who with Jackson
20:05Dart could could give you some spike weeks, as well. Okay, so there you go. Five guys that Matt Harmon is not drafting at
20:13DKADP.
20:16Again, we've got other videos here talking about deep sleepers, trendy wide receivers. If you want to go check those out, do that, as well. Hit that like,
20:23hit that subscribe. We appreciate y'all.
20:25We got to go. For Matt Harmon, I'm James Co. We'll see you. Peace.
