VideoFrom Matt Harmon
How Should You Be Drafting Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin | Reception Perception The Show
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 25, 2026
Published
Tue, August 25, 2026
9
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceCalvin RidleyDrake MayeGarrett WilsonKayshon BoutteRashid ShaheedRome OdunzeStefon DiggsTerry McLaurin
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeUsage9:12
Alec Pierce ranks among the top players in air yards per target over the last two years. Matt Harmon identifies Alec Pierce as having one of the highest air yards per target marks over the last two seasons, using him as a benchmark for Terry McLaurin's vertical usage.
Insight pageCalvin Ridley
NegativeUsage9:12
Calvin Ridley is noted for high air yards per target over the last two years. Matt Harmon notes Calvin Ridley as one of the players with higher air yards per target than Terry McLaurin over the last two seasons.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeUsage13:33
Matt Harmon notes that Drake Maye faced significant pressure last season, which necessitated the use of Stefon Diggs as a quick, reliable target to mitigate the risk of sacks.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveRole16:06
Matt Harmon highlights Garrett Wilson as a successful blueprint for evolving a receiver's role in a motion-based offense. Wilson transitioned from a static X alignment to a career-high 50.4% off-ball usage and a 30% slot rate last year, demonstrating how increased movement can optimize a primary receiver's production.
Insight pageKayshon Boutte
NegativeUsage9:12
Kayshon Boutte is noted for high air yards per target over the last two years. Matt Harmon notes Kayshon Boutte as one of the players with higher air yards per target than Terry McLaurin over the last two seasons.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
NegativeUsage9:12
Rashid Shaheed is noted for high air yards per target over the last two years. Matt Harmon notes that Terry McLaurin's air yards per target mark is just ahead of Rashid Shaheed's over the last two seasons.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeUsage9:12
Rome Odunze is noted for high air yards per target over the last two years. Matt Harmon notes Rome Odunze as one of the players with higher air yards per target than Terry McLaurin over the last two seasons.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveUsage0:00
Matt Harmon identifies Stefon Diggs as an elite route technician who remains highly impactful despite a dip in athleticism. Diggs maintains high success rates against man/press (~70%) and zone (~79%), with elite separation on quick-breaking routes like outs (93.8%) and flats (97%). Having transitioned to a slot-heavy role (over 40% of snaps in the last two years, including 54.3% with the Patriots in 2023), Diggs is expected to provide a vital, quick-release outlet for Jayden Daniels, similar to the role he played for Drake Maye under pressure. Harmon also notes that Diggs and Terry McLaurin are both highly successful on dig routes, which should be a staple of the new offensive scheme.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeProjection9:38
Matt Harmon is optimistic about Terry McLaurin due to the change in offensive coordinator and a shift toward a Ben Johnson-style offense that emphasizes dig and post routes where McLaurin excels. Harmon expects more dynamic pre-snap deployment for McLaurin, who has historically been a static X receiver (lining up on-ball for over 85% of snaps prior to Kliff Kingsbury, including 72.5% as the left outside receiver last year). While McLaurin ranked fifth in air yards per target (13.6) over the last two seasons, Harmon expresses concern that the loss of Laremy Tunsil may limit vertical opportunities, though he dismisses concerns about a long-term decline following a 2024 season impacted by a contract holdout and injuries.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00When you take a look at what Stefon's Diggs did last year from a reception perception standpoint, there was quite a number of
0:07design touches. And let me just get some of his raw numbers out of the way, right? 85 receptions, 1,000 yd, four
0:13touchdowns in New England playing just 55% of the snaps last year for the Patriots. He was incredibly productive, and when he was on the field, they
0:22leaned on him big time.
0:24>> Look at the release. There's your separation.
0:26>> Great route.
0:27>> Stutter and go, gets by clean.
0:28>> That is unbelievable.
0:29>> Maybe the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:34>> Yeah, he was not a full-time player, but was super productive for the New England Patriots. And you know, he's he's kind
0:41of been a productive player the last 2 years. This is anytime we talk about an aging player, you know, the player decline discussion
0:48always has to come up. But certainly from a raw stats perspective, 85 catches, 1,013 yd in the regular season, 15th in in yards and ninth among catches
0:59despite being that full-time not full-time player. Super effective for them. That was a signing that got panned by folks, you know, because of the
1:06contract. And look, it only lasted 1 year because of some maybe non-football reasons.
1:13>> some weird stuff happening, for sure.
1:15Yes, certainly.
1:18Anyways.
1:19But it was a successful, you know, one >> by the way.
1:21>> It is Stefon Diggs. Yeah, it it it was a successful 1-year partnership. And I thought what was remarkable about Diggs' reception
1:30perception charting cuz to be like pull pull us back in in the time machine. If you're not familiar or you're new in Reception Perception, I
1:38mean, this is one of the inner circle, you know, RP Hall of Famers is Stefon Diggs.
1:45He was charting out against man coverage like an elite performer before his move to Buffalo. I mean, back in our days at NFL
1:53Network, James, I was talking about, which is obviously 100 years ago now at this point. Um I was talking about how
2:00Stefon Diggs was, you know, number one in certain seasons in success rate versus man coverage. I think it was the 2017 season he was number one in success
2:08rate uh versus man coverage. So, he was he was that guy then, and then obviously once he gets to Buffalo he
2:14launches to a whole new level. His 2020 success rate versus man coverage is still number one in the entire Reception Perception database. Multiple seasons
2:23over the 93rd percentile success rate versus zone and 96th percentile against press. I mean again, this is he has a he has a case to be one of the
2:31best route runners, if not the best route runner, period, of the Reception Perception era. So, I say that to say, I know there's going to be obviously
2:40he's not that player anymore. I don't think anybody would argue that he's that player anymore. I don't even know if Stefon Diggs would argue that he is that
2:46player anymore. However, what I thought was remarkable was while the decline for him did begin in the 2023 season, you know, start it's I think it's
2:56started to go down there that year, and then last 2024 with the Texans, you know, took like another step kind of
3:03down specifically against man press coverage and and down the football field.
3:09The 2024 charting for Diggs and the 2025 charting for Diggs is remarkably similar. I mean, almost identical in a
3:17variety of metrics. Not not just in how the route tree skews, which we'll talk about, but also just the overall success
3:25rates. I mean, he's been right around 70% in success rate versus man and press and 79.2% success rate versus zone this
3:33past year is just a tick up actually from where he was with the Houston Texans at about 78.8% and there's an ACL tear in between these
3:41two seasons.
3:42So, pretty remarkable that Diggs is able to hang on to this, you know, kind of ability as a just a a a
3:50route runner technician, short and intermediate area receiver, despite the fact he tears his ACL and obviously now he's deeper into his 30s. So, um as long
3:57as he's the player that he was last year, you know, which is always tough. We don't know that with a guy that's going
4:02to be 32 this season. We you know, there's always maybe another step down, but as long as he's the guy that he was
4:07last year, yeah, he's a really good route runner who can separate and is particularly good on the outbreaking routes.
4:13>> Yeah, so when you take a look at the, you know, just overall numbers here. So, again, as Matt mentioned, 70% 70.5%
4:19success rate versus man coverage, 79% versus zone, which is a little lower than you would like for a guy who was a
4:2650/50 inside outside player. 70% 70.6% um success rate versus press. So, yeah, I mean I look, he's either at or clearing these benchmarks that we look
4:37for from a general level. Um I've been meaning to ask you this for a long time cuz we talk about these, you know, um
4:43general numbers like overall like, "Hey man, if you could beat this uh man coverage at 70%. Hey man, if you could
4:48beat zone coverage at 80% pretty good."
4:51Um [snorts] can you talk about somebody like Stefon Diggs though and the difference like the timing of when he beats man coverage or the timing of when
5:01he beats zone coverage? And what I mean by that is, yeah, these numbers I think capture like what they do on a down by
5:07down basis, but when there are bigger moments, when there's a a big third down, when there's a big moment in the
5:12game, >> [snorts] >> it just felt like Stefon Diggs was more present, more available, and somehow more open when the Patriots really
5:22needed him to get there.
5:24Uh can you talk about so- some of the I guess bigger moments for Stefon Diggs, too?
5:28>> Yeah, I think that's definitely true. Um you know, I I don't want to get too far down the rabbit hole on this, but I am not
5:38thinking about changing um the way I chart, but I'm I am thinking about uh evolving the process of
5:47charting and specifically incorporating some of the some ways um, you know, some ways like yeah, third downs, big moments, stuff like that. I'm
5:58I'm looking into that. Um, I don't know if it'll be this year or next year, what have you, but >> I feel like I feel like we need a play a
6:05breaking news alert or something. What's going on?
6:08>> Well, I want to make the product better for people and I do think that's a way to make the product better is to
6:12incorporate some more of that stuff. So, uh, we'll see about that. But, um, I I I that's something that I'm looking
6:17into in the back end of it. Uh, but anyways, yeah, I think there's definitely something to that by the way, you know, in terms of when he wins and
6:24and those being big moments and everything. I mean, he's only really playing on he's not playing every single down, right? So, I think in that way
6:31too, that's already kind of maybe like biases itself towards that. But, yeah, I mean, >> I I I don't also by the way don't, you
6:38know, when we talk about like oh, 70% verse man, 80% success rate verse zone and like those are the benchmarks.
6:45I mean, there's a wide range there, you know, and it everything is very context based. So, that's kind of what I would
6:51say is just like the quick and dirty like easy way to like all right, is this guy good at this, that, and the other.
6:57That's like the that's like getting your foot maybe not even in the front door.
7:01You're like maybe walking down you're on maybe on the porch. You're putting a you're putting a foot on the porch in
7:06terms of getting [laughter] into the house there. So, yeah, I would say that.
7:09Uh, by the way, just got a breaking news alert from Adam Schefter that uh, Laremy Tunsil unlikely to play during the
7:14regular season. So, uh, there we go. We actually got a news alert during the show, which is nice to see.
7:19>> I like [snorts] it.
7:20>> Not nice to see this Commanders offense.
7:23By the way, this transitions us a little bit into um, kind of the Terry McLaurin part of this because you know, I I Terry McLaurin is a guy
7:32certainly from a fantasy standpoint I was really into this year and I'm still into in some way, but I think his I think his style of
7:41play is really impacted more from like a I mean, he's really he's really I think impacted by Diggs coming here in general
7:48because not only is Diggs still a really good separator, but like I mentioned the particular routes that he wins on. I
7:54mean, he ran so many flats and quick outs last year for the Patriots and was unbelievably successful. I mean, his his
8:01success rates on outs, 93.8% and flat, 97% while running those at a pretty healthy volume is going to be some of
8:08the some of the top marks in the 2025 database period.
8:13Uh you know, his ability to get open quickly on those patterns, especially the quick outs, was really good against man coverage and
8:19was like it just provided a really easy answer for Drake May. Like Drake May, you know, who definitely was under pressure a lot last year, probably took
8:25a two bit too many sacks in his own right, he'd hit the top of his drop and just Diggs is open and right there
8:31available very quickly. I think that situation's going to be happening a lot for Jayden Daniels without Laremy Tunsil, another guy who already had kind
8:38of like a bad pressure to sack ratio at different points, especially as a collegiate player more so than in the NFL, but somebody that needs to you have
8:46a a better plan under pressure than just scramble and get out of there.
8:50I think Diggs would have been a big part of that.
8:53Uh and Diggs probably will be a big part of that this year.
8:56Whereas Terry McLaurin has been a vertical receiver for this team pretty exclusively over the last especially the last two years. Really
9:06this is a stat I I noted the last two seasons combined Terry McLaurin 13.6 air yards per target. That is behind only
9:12Alec Pierce, Kayshon Boutte, Calvin Ridley, Roma Odunze, and just ahead of Rashid Shaheed. Fifth most in air yards per target over the last two years
9:21combined.
9:22Um definitely not going to be getting a lot of those clean vertical looks without Laremy Tunsil in the mix here.
9:28The Commanders will likely shift Brandon Coleman out to be the starting left tackle. He has started at left tackle for this team before in 2024 when
9:36admittedly the offense was really good.
9:38Um but yeah, I was really excited about Terry McLaurin this year. And again, I'm still excited about Terry McLaurin mostly because of the change in
9:45offensive coordinator and some of my theories about David Blough.
9:48But there are still, let's be honest, a lot of questions to answer with McLaurin overall right now.
9:55>> Um I know I know we've talked about this overall, but what kind of offense are you anticipating from David Blough? Cuz
10:01I honestly have no clue. I I mean, just given his like player uh history and just his coaching career, it's so short. He's what what is he? 31?
10:1232 years old? He's young, dude. Uh 31 years old is um is David Blough. I have no idea what kind of offense that
10:19they're going to run out here in Washington.
10:22>> My guess, and obviously, you know, it's a guess, is that this will be an offense that is very is a little is much more
10:30Ben Johnson-centric than Kliff Kingsbury-centric. Um you know, my theory on like Blough, who obviously was with Ben Johnson as he rose through the
10:40coaching ranks >> Mhm.
10:41>> all the way back when he was like a passing game uh or like a tight ends coach, offensive assistant. People
10:47forget this, he was in Detroit before Dan Campbell was Ben Johnson. He was on Matt Patricia's staff, actually. Uh and then he was he was kept around because
10:55Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson had some history together. So he he stuck around on the team.
11:01And uh so again, David Blough was basically there throughout that entire you know, kind of situation. Uh and then he returned, did David Blough return to
11:09the Lions his final year in the NFL in 2023, one of Ben Johnson's final years with the team. Obviously, at that point
11:15you're David Blough, you're like, "I'm not going to become I'm not going to become an NFL starter. I'm thinking about coaching here, probably."
11:21>> [snorts] >> And so, my thought was that this is where his offensive DNA would lie more so than with with Kliff Kingsbury,
11:29although he's coached under Kliff Kingsbury the last couple of seasons and everything.
11:32>> Right. That's why I'm confused.
11:34>> Dan Quinn basically came out and said a lot like kind of confirmed a lot of my hunches when they do the press
11:39conference after David Blough's promotion, and he talks about going under center and running more play action and all those things. So, I think
11:46they are trying to skew more towards that world.
11:49All the reports from training camp are that they're skewing a little bit more into that world, and that is just a very
11:55dramatic difference uh of course than what we've seen under Cliff Kingsbury, which is very very very spread, um lot more no huddle and everything like that.
12:05I think that offense is good to get like your quarterback going in the NFL. I don't think it's a good answer for
12:10long-term success.
12:12>> Okay, so if that's the offense that we are anticipating here in Washington, then I would imagine dig routes and inbreakers and, you know, post routes
12:20and stuff like that are going to be pretty important. And in that regard, both Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs ran a bunch of digs and were really
12:28successful on both of those routes. It makes me feel pretty darn good actually about this tandem there in Washington at least for 1 year. That being said,
12:37obviously it's an older unit, and this is the fourth offense that Stefon Diggs is learning over the next four over his
12:45past 4 years. So, there there is some of that worry as well. But still though, I just think from a skills perspective,
12:53Terry McLaurin Stefon Diggs, it seemingly would fit in pretty nicely into if this will be a more Ben Johnson-ish offense.
13:02>> Yeah, I'm not really worried about Diggs like learning a new offense. I think he's one of the smartest receivers in
13:07the NFL. He's There's a reason that he's gone from being a fifth-round pick to being one of the best route runners, if
13:13not just one of the best receivers of the reception perception era, 2014 to current.
13:17>> Yeah.
13:18>> Like this guy's an a capital E elite technician, you know, and he's He remains that way, which is why even as
13:24the aff the athleticism and some of the speed has dipped for him, he's still a super impactful player. I'm not too
13:29worried about him learning a new offense, but I am really interested to see what the alignment for these guys kind of plays out as because you know,
13:37number one of course like Stefon Diggs as we mentioned was kind of like a slot Z receiver. He's been mostly a
13:45he's mostly been kind of flipping between X and Z during his best years with both Minnesota and then of course the Buffalo Bills, but the last two
13:54years he's been in the slot on more than 40% of his sample snaps 54.3% for the New England Patriots last year
14:00in what's a much more traditional kind of Josh McDaniels Erhardt-Perkins type of just three receiver offense. He was this kind of slot Z player where as
14:09Terry McLaurin has primarily been an outside on ball receiver. And of course we know in the Kliff Kingsbury offense we know what we know what's happening
14:17there. He's only lining up on one side of the field. Terry McLaurin that that is going that's the thing with Terry
14:23where it's like well, shoot even if my theories are wrong about David Blough and some of the things that he is going to do here
14:31>> Right.
14:31>> this is still it's going to be different for Terry McLaurin because anyone who's familiar with the Kliff Kingsbury thing knows this.
14:39Terry McLaurin has he lined up on 72.5% of his sample snaps as the left outside receiver. That means there are now five
14:47player seasons where receiver in the NFL that I've charted has taken more than 70% of their sample snaps as the just
14:54one outside receiver position. That is DeAndre Hopkins 2021, DeAndre Hopkins 2020 Nelson Agholor 2015, 2024 Terry McLaurin and now 2025 Terry McLaurin.
15:04Four out of the five seasons are with Kliff Kingsbury. So there's no and Nelson Agholor's rookie years was when he was with another
15:11college coach Chip Kelly. I talked about this a lot during the prospect season.
15:14So there's no no doubt that no matter what the alignment between these two guys looks like Terry McLaurin will get more dynamic
15:21pre-snap deployment this year more than ever. Honestly, you can make an argument by the way that Terry McLaurin's been one of the more
15:28kind of static X receivers in the NFL over the course of his entire career.
15:33He's taken more than 85% of his 85% or more of his sample snaps on ball in every season of his career prior to
15:41Cliff Kingsbury getting there. He's had two over 90% in 2021 and 2022.
15:47He's cleared a 75% outside alignment rate in every single season. He's been over 80% in four of the four of four
15:55of the like four of the out of the seven. So, yeah, I mean he's mostly just been a static X receiver and that's one
16:01thing that I really love about this offense. Like even last year in New York, I think a good test case for how this
16:06could look for uh for Terry McLaurin could be Garrett Wilson last year.
16:11You know, where I think you saw Garrett Wilson go from kind of being a static X alignment player in the Aaron
16:18Rodgers, you know, based offense and then Garrett Wilson, he took a career high of his snaps 50.4% off ball. He was
16:27in the slot on 30% of his sample snaps.
16:29I wonder if that could look like that kind of for Terry, where it's just a more of a pre-snap motion based offense
16:36and we're kind of blurring the lines there. He's getting a more dynamic deployment and that was with another Ben Johnson acolyte in Tanner Engstrand and
16:43that offense didn't even work out all that well and it still worked out for Garrett Wilson when he was on the
16:48football field from a role perspective.
16:50So, very interested to see what these two guys look like from a role perspective because we also haven't acknowledged this yet.
16:56Terry did not have his best year last year in isolation and I think it's okay to give him a pass for that because it
17:03was kind of always set up to be a down year for him.
17:06Long contract holdout. He didn't sign his new deal until August 26th of last year. They played their first game less than two weeks later.
17:14So, we kind of knew that McLaurin was going to come in and start slow, which he did. And then he started picking up
17:19injuries, came back in week eight, played through an injury, got hurt again, came back in week 13 or week 14.
17:26And his numbers really really took a dive across the board, specifically against man and press coverage, where he's always been um one of the better performers,
17:36especially in some of his early seasons.
17:38And we definitely saw a dip down uh in success rate versus man and press, but the numbers got better the longer that
17:45he played towards the end of the season.
17:46So, I don't want to raise the alarm bells on like McLaurin dropping off, but this is a sneaky older player. He'll
17:53turn 31 in September, despite the fact that these two guys have actually um like Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs.
17:59Diggs came in the NFL in 2015 and Terry in 2019. And they're actually pretty close in age, they're about a year and a
18:04half apart. So, just worth noting there that we did see a dip in McLaurin's individual play, but I'm not too worried
18:11about it.
