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Matt Harmon fantasy football takes on Nico Collins

Every source-backed video insight STACKED has extracted from Matt Harmon about Nico Collins.

41
Insights
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Negative
Insight ledger

All Matt Harmon insights about Nico Collins

NegativeProjectionJun 4, 2026
Matt Harmon projects Nico Collins as a top-five wide receiver if he stays healthy. Collins is a late second rounder with 23 overall ADP in 12-team formats and is described as an elite player at the position with tier-one wide receiver traits. The team's contract extension signals positive commitment. Collins is a 25% target share player with set-and-forget appeal, distinguishing him from supporting actors like Tank Dell, Jaden Higgins, and Jaylen Null in the Texans offense. Despite CJ Stroud's playoff disaster (one of the worst EPA per dropback performances in the playoffs since 2007), Stroud ranked between Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold in EPA per dropback during the regular season, making him good enough to support Collins. Harmon breaks ties in favor of Collins over Drake London in the second round despite London's role safety, citing Collins' injury history as a manageable concern relative to the upside differential. Collins' top-five upside contrasts favorably against George Pickens' top-12 ceiling despite similar ADP (23 vs. 24 on DraftKings).
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PositiveProjectionNo date
Matt Harmon argues Nico Collins has performed like a top-five receiver in the NFL since 2023 based on per-route efficiency metrics: second in yards per route run, 10th in targets per route run, and sixth in first downs per route run from 2023–2025 among all relevant receivers. Collins ranks among the most productive receivers in the NFL on a per-route basis with elite isolation metrics: 77.1% success rate vs. man coverage, 82.3% vs. press coverage (96th percentile in reception perception history), and 82.7% vs. zone coverage in 2025. He has maintained the 77% man and 82% press thresholds for three consecutive seasons, a consistency level only matched by consensus top-tier NFL receivers. Harmon's reception perception analysis shows Collins cleared these thresholds—met by only 21 players since 2014 and exclusively elite receivers (Antonio Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Adams, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Jackson Smith-Njigba, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashad Bateman). Harmon ranks Collins as a top-5 NFL receiver talent, comparable to Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Devonte Adams, and Dez Bryant (2014) from a charting, role, and effectiveness standpoint; he fits with elite players who have cleared the 90th percentile in success rate versus man and press coverage multiple times in reception perception history, and he's better against zone coverage than many of those elite comparables like Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin. Harmon concludes: 'If you're an ex receiver and you're winning against man and press coverage at that level and then zone coverage at that level, like guess what? You're one of the best receivers in football, period. Point blank. End of story.' With C.J. Stroud at quarterback (top 10 in EPA per play), Collins has been a top receiver on a per-route basis; the three Davis Mills games do not inflate his metrics. Harmon isolates Collins's per-route production from surrounding variables and concludes he is clearly a top five receiver in the NFL.
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NegativeProjectionNo date
Matt Harmon acknowledges Nico Collins is undeniably one of the top receivers in the NFL talent-wise, but has been frustrating and unreliable from a fantasy perspective. Harmon projects Collins as a back-half WR1 on a base case scenario and notes he will likely remain a little frustrating and inconsistent. However, Harmon sees potential for improvement: Collins could be moved around the formation more, and C.J. Stroud could be better this year after posting top-10 EPA per play last season, which could elevate Collins' production.
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NegativeRoleNo date
Matt Harmon ranks Nico Collins 102nd–104th in slot rate among 117 WRs with 200+ routes, grouping him with Courtland Sutton and DK Metcalf as X-receiver-only players. However, Harmon notes Collins is 'significantly better than just an exon only receiver type' and 'should be much more used in other formations and other alignments,' distinguishing him from pure X-only receivers. Nico Collins is cited as a comp for on-ball snap alignment percentage over 80%, representing pure X receiver archetypes with high alignment consistency.
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