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The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast on Trey McBride

PodcastLate-Round Perspectives: Zain Dhanani
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There's almost no way that Trey McBride continues this per route run target rate that he's seeing right now. It's like 40 percent per route run...he's seeing a 60 percent increase in targets per route run right now...the regression from a routes from a raw route volume standpoint has happened.
Mentioned at 60:00 – 62:00

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

McBride's 40% per-route target rate unsustainable; route volume regression already underway.

Dhanani was lower on the entire Arizona offense entering the season and now expects Trey McBride's 40% per-route-run target rate to regress significantly. McBride ran 100+ more routes than any other tight end since 2016, and Dhanani's thesis relied on him maintaining high volume; however, Arizona's raw route volume has declined substantially year-over-year, and McBride is seeing a 60% increase in targets per route run to compensate. Dhanani projects this elevated target rate will not sustain and notes the regression from route volume has already occurred, making McBride a fade despite early production.

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