PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Eight Facts About AFC Players You Probably Didn't Know (06/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 3, 2026
Published
Wed, June 3, 2026
21
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsRJ HarveyTyler WarrenA.J. BrownDrake LondonGarrett WilsonMarvin Harrison Jr.Quentin JohnstonDK MetcalfRico Dowdle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection0:34
Despite injury concerns, A.J. Brown is expected to continue producing at a high level for at least one or two more years.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:55
Concerns about A.J. Brown's knee were a factor in trade discussions, but he is expected to perform at a high level in 2026.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeBust1:01
DK Metcalf's ADP has dropped significantly, but there are concerns about his lack of upside and target share, making him a risky pick.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection0:25
Drake London scored 16.5 and 16.8 points per game over the last two seasons, finishing as wide receiver 14 and 8 respectively, showing consistent performance.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:38
Drake London has averaged 3 yards per route run with Michael Penix Jr. and 1.9 yards per route run with other quarterbacks, indicating a significant drop in efficiency.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveProjection0:50
Garrett Wilson is currently ranked as wide receiver 16, but there are concerns about his target volume and efficiency with Geno Smith at quarterback.
Insight pageNegativeMatchup0:51
There are worries about how the Jets' improved receiving core and offensive line will affect Wilson's target volume compared to last year.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveProjection0:15
When playing at least 70% of the snaps, Josh Downs averaged 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game, indicating strong potential if he maintains a similar role.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:26
Josh Downs is currently being drafted as wide receiver 47, which is a good value considering his potential for increased touchdowns and targets.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:36
Josh Downs had a significant number of red zone targets last year, which bodes well for his touchdown potential moving forward.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveInjury0:02
Marvin Harrison Jr. is still recovering from multiple injuries, including heel issues and appendicitis, but he does not believe it will affect his 2026 season.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:15
Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to play the X receiver role similar to Devontae Adams, which could enhance his fantasy value.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue0:45
Quentin Johnston is currently ranked as wide receiver 41 in ADP, making him a great value pick as a number four receiver on your fantasy team.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:46
Johnston has the potential to lead his team in touchdowns this season, especially if he continues to see significant playing time.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveRole0:30
Rico Dowdle has a history with the new head coach Mike McCarthy and has been productive in the past, but his role in the upcoming season remains uncertain.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeValue0:06
RJ Harvey's current ADP as RB 30 is too high given his limited role and the addition of Jonah Coleman, which complicates his potential workload.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:20
RJ Harvey is viewed as being in a bad role within a potentially less effective offense compared to other running backs like Jalen Warren and Ramondre Stevenson.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:49
RJ Harvey may need injuries to J.K. Dobbins to become a fantasy starter, as he struggled to produce when Dobbins was healthy.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue0:44
Tyler Warren is currently ranked 64th overall on Fantasy Pros and 52nd on CBS, making him a solid pick in that range. He has proven to be a good pass catcher and may see an uptick in touchdowns this season.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:45
Tyler Warren had the fourth most screen pass targets among tight ends last season, indicating a significant role in the passing game.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:45
Warren has shown good work after the catch and is considered a safer pick compared to high-risk players like Travion Henderson.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:54This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:57It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races!
1:00And he stays at his feet! He's just gonna go the distance!
1:04Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:07The homework assignment was due today. The player outlooks.
1:10Head right, player outlooks for every relevant player in one or two divisions.
1:14For the OGs, Heath and Dave and Jamie, it was two divisions.
1:18For me and Dan, it was one division. We're gonna share some of our favorite outlooks with you today on Fantasy Football Today.
1:25It's Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings. We'll have Jamie Eisenberg joining us shortly.
1:30We do have some news items. Dave just said...
1:33Oh, can I say what you just said off the air?
1:36What did I say off the air? About the AFC East?
1:40Yeah, sure. Basically, there were a lot of interesting players in the AFC East.
1:44What did I say instead? What did I actually say?
1:47You had a hard time coming up with interesting players to talk about from your AFC East outlets.
1:53Okay, and so what did I say in the chat?
1:56Read it. Oh, in the chat. I don't have anything.
1:59I don't see anything. AFC East is kind of a lame-ass div.
2:03Oh, you said that in the chat with the fans?
2:06No, with you, idiot. Oh. Oh, no. Okay, sorry.
2:09Yes, in our personal Google chat. Heath, what about your divisions?
2:12Oh, I've got the AFC South, so it's just full of...
2:16I mean, listen, it doesn't have Josh Allen or the defending AFC champions or Devon A-chan.
2:21What are you talking about, Dave? There's so many great fantasy players in the AFC East.
2:26I think Dave's upset because all the interesting players in the AFC East, Dave has talked about a lot and didn't want to repeat A-chan and Waddle.
2:34When we write our division outlooks, we do guys who were there the previous year.
2:39So, like Jalen Waddle for Dave and Kenneth Gainwell for me in the AFC North and whatnot.
2:44All right, so today the eight players we're going to discuss are Josh Downs, R.J.
2:49Harvey, Travion Henderson, Jalen Warren, Tyler Warren, a couple of Warrens, Quentin Johnston, Garrett Wilson, and D.K.
2:54Metcalf. All right, news and notes real quick. Marvin Harrison Jr.
2:58says he's still recovering from the injuries he had last year.
3:01It seems like the heel is really the one.
3:04He had appendicitis, he had two heel injuries, and he had a concussion.
3:08So he's still getting his feet under him from the heel injuries, but he does not think it will affect his 2026 season.
3:15In other related news, their head coach, Arizona's head coach, Mike LaFleur, said that Marvin Harrison is going to play the X
3:22receiver role like Devontae Adams, and Michael Wilson's going to be in the Z receiver role like Puka Nakua.
3:28So, Dave, you know, is that a good thing for more for Wilson than Harrison?
3:33What do you think about that if Harrison's playing the Devontae role and Wilson the Puka role?
3:38Well, sounds juicy for Michael Wilson, but who's playing in the Matthew Stafford role?
3:42Because I don't think it's going to be anybody as good as Matthew Stafford.
3:47LaFleur actually saved me some time because I was going to do a whole deep dive into these receivers and Trey McBride
3:54and figure out, well, how could they be utilized based on how the Rams offense has operated over the last three years?
4:01LaFleur has had a big hand in how they've gone about running their offense, details in play calling, matchups that they've had.
4:07There's a lot to dig into there, but he kind of just simplified it by saying that one's going to play in
4:14one spot and another's going to play in the other spot.
4:18But the thing that stands out about Puka is he's got a great relationship.
4:22He's got great timing with Matthew Stafford. I think there's a lot of option routes between the two of them, and that's
4:29why Nakua is always so open on those dig routes, those out routes that we see week after week that he comes through on.
4:37Where there's just nobody around him when he catches the ball, and he also catches a lot of tight window throws in traffic from Matthew Stafford.
4:45I would lean a little bit toward Michael Wilson being able to catch those traffic throws, but I'm not sure if either
4:52one of these wide receivers are going to be anywhere in the universe of Puka Nakua or Devante Adams, in large part because it's Jacoby Brissette at quarterback.
5:00It could be Carson Beck at some point. Brissette's not there working with the receivers.
5:05Marvin Harrison even talked about that when he met with the media.
5:09Long-winded answer is that I don't feel like either of these guys are going to be anywhere close to must-start fantasy receivers
5:16as long as they're both on the field. Next news item.
5:19Drake London and the Falcons agreed on a four-year $140 million contract extension with $100 million guaranteed.
5:25This contract extension begins in 2027. Drake London basically scored the same amount of points per game two straight seasons, 16.5 and
5:3116.8, but one year he was wide receiver 14 per game, and then last year he was wide receiver 8 per game.
5:38Heath, a couple things. Over the last two years, what's a good yard-per-out run rate?
5:43Anything over two is good. Anything approaching three is incredible.
5:46Yards-per-out run. Over the last two seasons, Drake London has been at basically three yards-per-out run with Michael Penix Jr., and basically 1.9 yards-per-out run with anyone else.
5:55Does that matter to you? And from a dynasty standpoint, how do you treat – do you change anything with a guy who just signs a long-term extension?
6:04Not with a guy like Drake London who we had no doubt about his ability to earn this type of contract.
6:10This is just one where we knew it was going to happen at some point.
6:15It happened great. But no, I'm not going to change his dynasty valuation.
6:19Maybe the Michael Penix thing would bother you just a little bit if you're worried they're going to play Tua.
6:25But I think – the reason I was so happy that they acquired Tua was because Penix isn't healthy.
6:31Penix has had a hard time staying healthy. And I don't think Penix is better than Tua.
6:37So I do think Tua is probably better than Kirk Cousins at this stage of their career.
6:42And so I think that it helps Drake London's floor.
6:45Maybe there will be two quarterbacks that he averages close to three yards-per-out run with.
6:50Oh, that would be nice. Jamie Eisenberg is here.
6:53Jamie, our next news item is about A.J. Brown.
6:55Jeff McClain of the Philadelphia Inquirer was on a podcast and he said the Rams were interested in Brown, but they did
7:02not – they weren't satisfied with his medicals. And that he said that Brown's knee was part of the reason why the Eagles didn't get more for Brown.
7:11They got a fifth-round pick in this upcoming draft in 2027 and a first-rounder in 2028, I believe.
7:17So, P.S., Makai Lemon, by the way, the rookie wide receiver, has a hamstring injury.
7:21That's another news item. But this update on A.J.
7:24Brown from a beat writer saying that his medicals were a factor for the Rams and maybe why the Eagles didn't get
7:31more, does that make you hesitant with A.J. Brown?
7:34Not for 2026, but probably more of a dynasty conversation than a redraft conversation.
7:38So, I think if you're looking at it, we already had one trade this offseason, whether you believe it or not, was
7:45overturned because the medicals weren't good on Max Crosby.
7:48And so, I'm guessing if he was able to pass his physical, he played the majority of the season last year, he
7:55obviously still fetched a pretty good reward in return, maybe not what the Eagles were hoping for.
8:00But still good enough that they can have some pretty significant draft compensation for a player I think that can still produce
8:07at a high level for at least one, maybe two years.
8:11So, if it's a situation where they don't like what's happening in three years, in four years, probably a cause for concern.
8:17But really, I think if you're just looking at it 2026, I think he's going to have an opportunity to play at a high level.
8:25Okay. And McLean also said the Eagles were maybe concerned about how A.J.
8:29Brown would age with that knee injury. So, that kind of speaks to what you're saying.
8:34Jonathan Brooks is not participating in team reps yet.
8:37But Aaron Donald, it wouldn't really be fair if Aaron Donald came out of retirement.
8:42But he could do that for the Rams. I think it's Aaron Donald.
8:46It's one of the receivers that are out there.
8:49Stephon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, one of these guys. Like, I mean, it just makes sense at this point.
8:54Go get what you can get. But Donald coming back to the Rams is probably going to happen.
9:00I would say Aaron Donald is the best defensive player that I've ever seen.
9:04Maybe Miles Garrett. And I'm not counting Lawrence Taylor because I didn't really see Lawrence Taylor.
9:10But Aaron Donald, for me, is that guy. My kids ask me, hey, Dad, who was the best defensive player you ever saw?
9:17I would say it was Aaron Donald. That's a pretty good name to throw out there.
9:22How about you guys? Seau, Reggie White. You guys are a little more of the 90s.
9:27Kyle was up there, man. I mean, Taylor. He had some monster years.
9:31Taylor was a great one. J.J. Watt was a problem every single week.
9:35Ed Reed. How could I not say Ed Reed for crying out loud?
9:39Sean Taylor. Sean Taylor was great, too. I love Sean, but I don't know if he necessarily makes the list.
9:45Donald is up there. There's no doubt, man. He was just so, so tough to deal with.
9:51Play after play, week after week. It was really hard to shut him down.
9:55Yeah. Well, to be a pass rusher like that in the interior of the defensive line was pretty rare.
10:01J.J. Watt for that stretch, too. Yeah. Hey, Dave said J.J.
10:04Watt, right? Yeah. He was amazing. And Caleb Williams is on the Madden cover.
10:09So you all can freak out. That's too bad.
10:12And, yeah, we'll see if maybe Dan Schneier wrote the NFC North outlook.
10:16So maybe he'll change Caleb Williams' outlook now. And two big things.
10:19How would Dan describe Caleb Williams? We don't have enough time for that.
10:23It would be eight minutes. Adam, what do you think?
10:27How would it go? How would he describe Caleb Williams?
10:30Yeah. I watched the tape of Caleb Williams. I'm a big fan of Caleb Williams.
10:34And let me tell you why. It's really more of a ski.
10:38I don't know where I'm going with this. That was great.
10:42He actually wrote it. I'm reading it right now.
10:44It's actually a short outlook. Like, I'm the one that writes the long outlooks when you see those on CBS Sports.
10:51It's my fault. Dan wrote a nice, short, tight Caleb Williams outlook.
10:55I asked Dave for help with one of my outlooks.
10:58And he's like, let me see if I can shorten it.
11:01And he sent something back that was like three sentences longer.
11:05Guilty. I'm going to read it today. And two big things.
11:08Oh, reading? I mean, whatever you want to do.
11:11I'm going to read mine verbatim. You can do whatever you want.
11:15I'll read it. I like that idea. I'll dramatically present it.
11:18Two big things happening today. One, I'm getting a haircut.
11:21I apologize for looking. Look at me. Oh, my gosh.
11:25I look ridiculous. Getting a haircut today. And two, first of four games that the Knicks will win as they sweep the Spurs in the NBA Finals.
11:33Wow, now it's a sweep. Yeah, they're going to win in three somehow.
11:37And you can follow all of it on CBS Sports HQ.
11:41What a time to be a sports fan. Game one of the Stanley Cup last night was, Stanley Cup Finals was awesome.
11:47You've got baseball in full swing. You've got the NBA Finals.
11:51You've got a lot to look forward to in the sports world.
11:55So watch CBS Sports HQ. It's on the CBS Sports app.
11:58And it's really phenomenal sports coverage. We'll be right back with our player outlooks, whether we're reading them verbatim or not, on Fantasy Football today.
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13:26Okay, we're going to start with Josh Downs, written by Heath Cummings.
13:30Josh Downs was wide receiver 47. Oh, sorry. He is currently in Fantasy Pros ADP wide receiver 47, 103rd overall.
13:36But that's in between Jordan Addison and Wandale Robinson in current Fantasy Pros PPR ADP.
13:41What do you have to say about Josh Downs?
13:44Yeah, I'm not reading one. I think the first thing that got me a little bit more excited about Josh Downs, it was actually kind of surprising.
13:52I'm going to just give part of my Tyler Warren stats also.
13:56But when you look at the receiving touchdowns for the Colts last year, it was Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce at the top.
14:03Downs and Warren only scored four touchdowns. The strange thing was they were by far and away the leaders on the team in red zone targets.
14:11Red zone targets last year, Warren had 19. Downs had 14.
14:15Pittman had 12 and led the team in touchdowns with seven.
14:18And Alec Pierce had eight. I had kind of viewed Josh Downs more like the Zay Flowers type guy who's probably not
14:25going to get a lot of touchdown opportunities. And it made me more optimistic about his touchdown potential.
14:31I talked about this a lot, but his ADOP was much more similar to Michael Pittman's the last couple of years than Alec Pierce's.
14:38So I think that it gives him more target opportunity.
14:41And I think we've given this stat like seven different ways, depending on the percentage you want to use.
14:47But what I chose was there's 16 games in his career where he's played at least 70% of the snaps, averaged 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
14:56Yeah, and you'd certainly take that at 100th overall right around there.
14:59He's going 98th overall in CBS early average draft position.
15:03Heath, red zone targets pretty good, but five green zone, three end zone targets.
15:07Does that put a damper on the red zone stat?
15:10It was still more green zone targets than Alec Pierce.
15:13Oh, wow. I guess that's not a huge surprise, right?
15:16Everything you can't, you can't, you can't catch a pass from 10 yards in when you're, when you're Alec.
15:22Right, and just like, I know, I'm not supposed to be doing Tyler Warren right now, but Warren had 11 targets inside the 10-yard line.
15:30Wow. I guess that's the reason. Well, it's not surprising, except it's surprising that he scored four touchdowns last year.
15:36Oh, Tyler Warren did? Yes, receiving. Okay, cool. So Josh Downs, I gave you those names, Jordan Addison and Wandale Robinson.
15:43How would you rank those three, Heath? Heath? Addison, Downs, Robinson.
15:46Okay, that's the way ADP has it on Fantasy Pros.
15:50Jamie, your thoughts on Josh Downs? I know, I feel like it's someone you like a lot, too.
15:55I do like him a lot. I would take him significantly higher than the other two guys, Addison and Robinson.
16:01I think just looking at the opportunity that he's stepping into, it's amazing.
16:06And 2024, as Heath referenced, you know, when he's gotten targets, when he's gotten playing time, when he's been involved in the
16:12offense, he's been fairly productive as a fantasy receiver.
16:15There was a, I forget who it was, but there was a Colts podcast recently where one of the beat writers suggested
16:22it's going to be Downs or Warren. Didn't even mention Alex Pierce leading the team in targets and receptions.
16:28So, you know, the big contract that he just got makes sense, just the type of player that he is.
16:34But Downs has just got such a huge opportunity here.
16:38Hopefully he stays healthy. It wouldn't shock me if he's competing to be a top 24 receiver this year.
16:43You know, just if the touchdowns increase, like Josh Downs' targets and catches should be career highs by maybe a significant margin.
16:50Where did he finish in 2024, Adam? I know how many, 13.1 PPR points per game, 7.6 targets per game.
16:57Where did that place him in 24? On a per game basis, he was wide receiver 32, 31.
17:02That was before the wide receiver market crash though.
17:05Right. And then the, that's a great way to put it.
17:09So the receiver market crashed in 2025. Where would 13.1 have been in 25?
17:13Probably top 20. Let's see. 13.1 would have been 20th.
17:16Michael Wilson had averaged 13 fantasy points per game.
17:19He was wide receiver 20. Lordy. Yeah. Okay. Josh Downs has a good opportunity.
17:23And I mentioned this last month, but Josh Downs has averaged 10.8 yards per catch in his first three seasons.
17:30Jackson Smith and Jigba averaged 10.8 yards per catch in his first two seasons.
17:34They averaged about the same amount of yards per target.
17:37They both were primarily slot receivers. Can we move Josh Downs outside a little bit more?
17:42And he will be the next JSN. He will win you your league.
17:46I guarantee it. Nixon four. Next up is RJ Harvey.
17:49RJ Harvey is a Jamie Eisenberg player outlook. Jamie had the AFC West.
17:53Currently in average draft position. Harvey is RB 30.
17:5679th overall in between Ramondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard.
17:59Jamie thoughts on RJ Harvey. I mean, I think he needs an injury or maybe two at this point to be a
18:06fantasy starter and maybe even a flex. It was bad last year when J.K.
18:10Dobbins was healthy. In the first 10 games when Dobbins was on the field, it was 9.9 PPR points per game was his average.
18:18He exploded after that when Dobbins' foot was injured and missed the rest of the season.
18:23And you saw that he was a very good fantasy option, but it took a lot of touchdowns and he was involved in the passing game.
18:31He still was not a very good rusher, and that's something that's a problem.
18:35So, you know, the fact that they drafted Jonah Coleman is going to be, I think, a big issue on two accounts.
18:42One, when everybody's healthy, now you're chopping it up three ways, most likely based on what you heard from the draft and
18:49what seems to be the case, you know, in the early part of the offseason.
18:54The second part of this is we know J.K.
18:57Dobbins has a very bad injury track record. Well, now if Dobbins goes down, it's not just R.J.
19:02Harvey. It's now Harvey and Coleman. So the potential of, okay, here's a lottery ticket because we saw it last year, and
19:09if Dobbins misses time, it's all of Harvey's – Harvey gets all of that work or the majority of that work.
19:16I don't know if that's the case right now.
19:19So when you look at it, you say RB30, you know, at one point post-draft, he was still going 23, 24, 25 in that range.
19:26Like, I'm glad it's starting to fall. I hope it continues to fall a little bit more.
19:32I think at some point it will become a good value because if he does hit and he does get those receptions
19:39and he does get an opportunity if Dobbins misses time, then you're talking about a good value pick.
19:44But where he's going right now still is too high for me.
19:48I'm a little bit concerned just about how this all is going to work, especially when they add another pass catcher in
19:55Jalen Waddle who will make the passing game a little bit better.
19:59I know they're not going to throw the ball more because they were top five in pass attempts.
20:04So that doesn't really change things. But how the targets are distributed could be changed and maybe Harvey doesn't get as many
20:11opportunities as we saw in the second half of the season or even in the beginning part of the year when that's
20:18really where he was making his production was catching the ball.
20:22So it wasn't a full-time third down back even to begin with.
20:25I think we're just looking at a guy that could be in a very bad role, even though he's on what I think is still good offense.
20:34He may not be the type of running back that you're drafting when some of the other guys around him just looking
20:41at the list that you have on the screen here.
20:44I'm assuming this is a CBS Sports ADP. I'd rather have Jalen Warren.
20:48I'd rather have Ramondre Stevenson. I think I'd rather have Rico Dottle too just with the opportunity of what he could be
20:55in Pittsburgh's offense by comparison to what RJ Harvey is right now in Denver's offense.
20:59Yeah, and Dave, I think we can lump RJ Harvey in with the guy that you wanted to talk about, Travion Henderson,
21:06who's actually going a lot earlier than RJ Harvey.
21:09Travion Henderson is RB21 overall on Fantasy Pros ADP, 51st overall.
21:13So that's 21 picks and seven running backs ahead of RJ Harvey.
21:16Henderson's going in between David Montgomery and Bucky Irving.
21:19So, you know, Jamie gives a pretty pessimistic outlook of RJ Harvey, which totally makes sense.
21:24Do you give an optimistic or pessimistic? I think you actually give kind of a both in your player outlook, both sides of the coin for Travion Henderson.
21:33So how do you like to draft? Do you like to draft based on talent or do you like to draft based on opportunity?
21:40And if it's talent, Travion Henderson is going to be somebody that you're taking before round five ends, if not round four.
21:47Because when we've seen it from him and it was in flashes as a rookie, certainly a lot more when he was in college.
21:55The dude's fast. He can catch. He's he's absolutely elusive.
21:58He's he's what you're looking for from an NFL running back.
22:01And he's playing in one of the better offenses in the National Football League.
22:06But the opportunities evaded him last year. It was only when Ramondre Stevenson was hurt when he averaged huge fantasy numbers.
22:12I mean, north of 20 PPR points per game.
22:15But with Ramondre Stevenson on the field, it was down to single digits.
22:19It wasn't good at all. And it's it's it's tough to look at Travion Henderson and say, hey, it's just it's going to be a second year.
22:28He's going to be better. You've got nothing to worry about.
22:31He'll in seat Ramondre Stevenson. Ramondre is a little bit better than your average NFL running back.
22:37Anyway, that's an argument that can be made. But we clearly saw last year when Ramondre played coaching staff, trusted him a lot.
22:44And if they're doing that, that limits the opportunities for Travion Henderson.
22:47Now throw on top of it that they just got A.J.
22:51Brown. And if they got A.J. Brown, yeah, that helps in terms of lightning boxes.
22:56Defenses are going to have to respect the pass.
22:58You know, they're not worried about getting beat by Keishon Booty downfield or Stefan Diggs anymore.
23:03Now they really got a legit worry about A.J.
23:06Brown and to an extent, Romeo Dobbs, too. It's an upgraded passing game.
23:10But the Patriots figure to lean into that. They've got the quarterback to do it.
23:15And that could take away opportunities from both Stevenson and Henderson.
23:19So I I'm trying to not be too excited about Henderson.
23:22If I can get him round four, round five, I'll be OK with it.
23:26But I also know that I have to commit a couple of picks after that, not directly after that, but within let's
23:33call it, you know, picks 51 through 99 to at least a couple of other running backs in case it's a year just like last year.
23:41Bottom line is he could be one of the best running backs in fantasy or it can be just as bad of
23:48a bus as he was the year before. If you don't like taking risks, you're probably not going to draft Travion Henderson.
23:55The thing that really bothered me about Henderson last year was like, I think we were a little unsure how how much
24:02of the rush work he would take from Andre Stevenson and how long it would take for that to happen.
24:08But we were so excited about him as a pass catcher.
24:12And it wasn't just that Stevenson got so many more opportunities than he did.
24:16Stevenson averaged one point three four yards per run.
24:19Henderson was zero point nine three, which was 33rd amongst 43 running backs with at least 30 targets last year.
24:25Stevenson averaged nine point three yards per target. Henderson was five point three.
24:29Like I it's hard to make an argument that they should have given Henderson more work in the passing game than Stevenson
24:36because Stevenson was just awesome at it. And he'd been his really bad for most of his career.
24:42But last year, he was very good in the passing game.
24:45Right. But wouldn't you expect him to be more like his career norms than the not?
24:50Yes, but I would have expected Henderson to be much better than he was.
24:55I just don't get. I mean, so he's going 60 say Trayvon Henderson going 60 second on CBS.
25:00That's awesome. Fantasy. Is it? I mean, 50 for it's a lot better than 51st being on the way to round.
25:07If you're taking him at 51st overall, you're making a huge mistake.
25:11Right. I mean, I think a lot has to happen for him to even justify 60 second.
25:16Exactly. If you look at the games that both Stevenson and Henderson played.
25:20I've got 188 carries for Stevenson, 163 carries for Trayvon Henderson.
25:24And how many games? A lot of games. Is it?
25:27I'm including the playoffs. OK. Stevenson only missed two games.
25:30Yeah. So it's most of the season and including four postseason games.
25:34And then the catch is so it's what I don't know.
25:37The postseason was wild. Like Henderson was barely playing in the postseason.
25:41About 25 more carries and 17 and 19 more catches for Mondray Stevenson.
25:45Now, I think you guys probably brought this up throughout the year last year.
25:49But correct me if I'm wrong. But Josh McDaniels offenses are very hard for rookie running backs.
25:55If I'm not mistaken. Yes. Damian Harris told me that.
25:58That's what it was. Right. Damian Harris told you that.
26:01And Henderson definitely I think there was an adjustment in the learning curve.
26:05And I think he'll be better in that regard of knowing the offense better in his second year.
26:11He's the type of player that you're hoping can be a flex when Stevenson is healthy.
26:16And is a league winner if Stevenson misses time.
26:18Like that's what you're hoping for. Yeah. Because unless there's just a dramatic change.
26:23I don't think you're seeing Stevenson just get benched or get taken off the field for that much of a difference in playing time.
26:30Like Henderson only out snapped him in two games last season.
26:34And I'm guessing that probably had to do with either game floor injury because it was around the time when Stevenson was missing time.
26:41So how much of that is going to change?
26:44Look, you know me. I was as excited about anybody as Henderson last year.
26:48I would say take him around three. Like I thought he's going to be the guy and be this, you know, difference making player.
26:56And he's shown that as Dave Ilstra. You know, he's shown that ability.
27:00So I think when you're drafting, you just got to understand like, am I taking somebody that I have to wait for the injury?
27:08Or am I taking somebody that's going to outplay the competition?
27:11And again, skill set wise and just eyeball test.
27:14You see Trevion Henderson could do a lot more than Ramondre Stevenson.
27:18Mike Vrabel is an old school coach. Josh McDaniels maybe has to make him earn his keep and learn the offense to
27:24an extent where they feel so comfortable with him.
27:27That was part of the argument for Henderson last year is that we've seen guys in just the pass catching role for Josh McDaniels be very fantasy relevant.
27:36James White, for example, you know, where he was never a full time guy and he was still a flex borderline number two running back.
27:44Henderson, just based on his skill set, looked like, oh, my God, he could be much better than James White maybe ever
27:51was, except for that Super Bowl performance. But I think you're just looking at it as the hope would be is if
27:58you're drafting Trevion Henderson in round four, you're expecting him to be the guy right away.
28:03And I just don't think that's the case in round five.
28:06You're kind of hopeful round six, I think, is kind of the sweet spot for him.
28:11You know, if you're getting him in that range where, OK, I think if I'm getting eleven point three PPR points per
28:18game, if that was his number last year, then I'm taking him as a flex and I can live with that.
28:25Knowing that if Stevenson misses time, I have a potential top ten guy on my hands.
28:30And so that's I think at least that's the approach for me is I'm not reaching for him in round four or round five.
28:37I'm taking him in round six if he's still there.
28:40But I haven't and I like the idea. I'm sorry, Adam.
28:44I like the idea of considering him in round five and even early round five.
28:48If I love my first four picks and that would mean that I'm picking close to I'm in slot one, slot two, slot three.
28:56I've got already got a superstar from in round one.
28:59Say I have the one on one and I've got Gibbs and I come back in rounds two and three and I nail it.
29:07Two awesome pass catchers and round four. Somebody slips it at a best player available.
29:11I can't believe it. That's when I might kind of have that mentality of going for broke and saying, all right, I've
29:18got four studs on my team already. Let's take the chance with Travion Henderson and see if he can hit that home
29:25run more often than he did last year in his second season.
29:29And one last thing we're talking about him right now.
29:32It's June 3rd. If it's August 3rd and there are reports about him glowing in camp, you know, his ADP is going to go up a lot.
29:40He'll go right back up to being like in that round four range.
29:44And I don't know if it'll be too rich for my blood at that point based on what we're hearing and based on how he may have improved.
29:53What have we learned? That kind of stuff is going to be impactful in August.
29:58Okay. All right, guys, give me just like 10 to 15 seconds from each of you.
30:03We'll go Heath, Jamie, Dave. Why is Travion Henderson a better pick than RJ Harvey?
30:08There are obviously similarities in their situations. Why is Travion Henderson a better pick than RJ Harvey?
30:1310 to 15 seconds, Heath. We thought Henderson was better coming into the NFL.
30:17Henderson, by a lot of metrics, was better last year than Harvey.
30:21And there's not a Jonah Coleman in New England.
30:24Does that suffice for everyone? Less competition. Pretty much.
30:27Okay. All right. I want to talk about Jalen Warren.
30:30I wrote the outlook on him and then I sent it to Dave and then Dave sent it back to me two or three sentences longer.
30:38But very, very good. Because I think he's one of the toughest players to project right now with Jalen Warren.
30:44You just don't know who's going to have which role in Pittsburgh.
30:48Both he and Rico Dowdle have been the lead running backs for their teams.
30:52Dowdle more so. Both he and Rico Dowdle have been the third down backs for their team.
30:58And Dave likes to talk about how Mike McCarthy, the new head coach, has a history with Rico Dowdle.
31:04And Dowdle's had two good seasons in a row.
31:07Not great, but good. So my thought on Warren was he's a round six or seven pick in a 12-team league in full PPR.
31:14Probably round eight or so in non-PPR. I think he's going to be their third down back.
31:19At least more so than Rico Dowdle. And Kenneth Gainwell was their third down back last year, and he had 73 catches.
31:26Obviously, not all of them were on third down.
31:29He played plenty on first and second down. But that's the role that I think is super valuable for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
31:36Because Aaron Rodgers, at this point in his career, he gets rid of the ball as quickly as just about any quarterback.
31:43He had the lowest ADOT in the NFL last year.
31:46He loves to throw to his running backs. He has a great history throughout his career of throwing to his running backs.
31:53That's the role that you need in Pittsburgh. My bet is on Jalen Warren.
31:57I'm also not a huge Dowdle guy. I look at his production each of the last two years, and he really beat
32:04up on these really terrible run defenses. And then kind of fizzled out against the average or better ones.
32:10So I think Warren can just be a better rusher than him.
32:14I am kind of bullish on Jalen Warren. But I just want to bring up that he's not that safe.
32:20He really could lose a lot of work in both areas to Rico Dowdle.
32:25And this is a team, Heath, where I think we have to pay attention to the reports to training camp to preseason and see how it looks.
32:33Yeah, I think I would probably be... I've got it kind of as a coin flip right now.
32:39I'd probably be closer to where you are if it wasn't for the fact that the new head coach signs the running
32:46back who was on his team before and has the experience with Dowdle.
32:50And Dowdle has been really involved in the passing game the last couple of years when he's been out on the field.
32:57So I think, yes, watch the training camp reports.
32:59But also, this could be a hot hand situation all year long.
33:03That's true. Jamie, any thoughts on Jalen Warren slash Rico Dowdle?
33:07Who should go first in which format? I'd take Warren first just because I think he'll be more involved in the passing game.
33:14But I agree with Heath. I think it's a coin toss.
33:17I think it's kind of similar to the Patriots that both guys are going to get touches and, you know, could be a week-to-week thing.
33:25Clearly, the Patriots situation, one guy has more upside if he ever gets to work.
33:30I don't think that's the case here. But you have to, you know, lean toward the history between Dowdle and McCarthy and
33:37the fact that, you know, they lose Gainwell. And this is one of the first signings that they had in McCarthy's tenure, you know.
33:44So he's comfortable with Rico Dowdle. I think you're right, Adam.
33:48You know, last year in particular, he beats up on the Dolphins and the Cowboys, you know, and takes advantage of those
33:54two defenses when they were at their worst. And so, you know, he's got that opportunity to have some really big spike games but clearly some down games.
34:03And so, yes, who's going to be in the pass-catching role is going to really matter here because of Aaron Rodgers.
34:10But wouldn't be surprised if they're both getting, you know, as we saw in Los Angeles last year down the stretch with the Rams, they're splitting drives.
34:18Same thing in Chicago where they're splitting drives, you know, or every other drive.
34:23It's the other guy. And then, you know, does one guy have the goal line role?
34:28Does one guy have the passing downs role? Or is it just whoever's on the field at that moment?
34:34So they're kind of interchangeable. They can both do, I think, each role and probably have success in each role.
34:40The wild card in all this is does Caleb Johnson get opportunities?
34:44I think we'd all say, based on what we saw last year, probably not.
34:48But he was getting some first-team reps and OTAs already.
34:51So, you know, maybe they want to see if he can bounce back from that crappy rookie season.
34:57And then we're looking at three guys in the mix.
35:00But I think if you're just talking about the top two guys, it might just be if you want a piece of
35:07this backfield, wait to see who's still on the board when you're up.
35:11Let somebody else take the first one, whether that's Warren or Dowdle.
35:15Again, for me, I would take Warren first. They also have a running back on their roster who had 51 catches for 941 yards last year.
35:23That's the Navy running back Eli Heidenreich, who the Steelers took at the seventh round.
35:28He probably won't matter, but he's a pretty unique guy.
35:31I wonder if, and Dave probably is the one that answers, if we're going to change his eligibility to both positions, because
35:38the Steelers are listing him at both positions. If the Steelers are listing him at both positions, then we should too.
35:44Interesting. That's Eli Heidenreich, which might matter for Dynasty, although it doesn't mean that the Steelers could change it next year, and he could lose the eligibility.
35:53He also might not be a Steeler next year.
35:55Oh, he might be in the Navy? I don't know.
35:59Yeah. Okay. Well, that's Jalen Warren. I'm suggesting that he might not be in the National Football League.
36:04But one little point, just to put a bow on this conversation, it's been over 15 years since running backs under Mike
36:11McCarthy have had a target share of at least 20%.
36:14I mentioned that yesterday. His teams, at least in Dallas, I didn't look at Green Bay, but his teams in Dallas had
36:21never been higher than 18th in running back target rate, which is interesting.
36:25But that's like immovable object versus unstoppable force because Aaron Rodgers just always throws his running backs.
36:30So if the routes that are in the playbook now, and remember, it's a different playbook.
36:36It's Mike McCarthy's playbook. It means there's going to be a lot of in-breaking, come back to the quarterback type routes.
36:42And they got Michael Pittman specifically for some of those routes, and rookie Jeremy Bernard can do that too.
36:48That, theoretically, will take target volume away from whoever is that running back.
36:52I'm still taking Warren first in full PPR, but half in non-gimme-dowdle, who has a better rate of success inside the five,
36:59I think, over the last two years than Jalen Warren.
37:02It's in his outlook. It is funny because if you look at Aaron Jones, I think he played his first two years
37:09with Aaron Rodgers with McCarthy as the coach. And then McCarthy left in 2019, and Aaron Jones became the big pass-catching guy.
37:16Interesting. All right. Well, we'll be right back. He was not when McCarthy was there.
37:21I'll tell you about the football game I watched yesterday.
37:24And then we'll talk about four more players when we come back on FFT.
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38:23Went to a restaurant yesterday that had the NFL Network on.
38:26And it was classic Aaron Rodgers. Peak Aaron Rodgers versus Ben Roethlisberger.
38:30Packers-Steelers game in Pittsburgh. And those two guys were just playing quarterback at a ridiculous level.
38:35It was really cool to watch. Of course, I would have rather have watched a live game, like the Yankees game or the Stanley Cup finals.
38:43But they had the Steelers-Packers from sometime in the last 15, 20 years on.
38:48It's good stuff. You could have asked them to change the channel.
38:51I did, and they didn't do it. There were eight TVs that I could see.
38:56Eight TVs. And not one of them had a live event on.
39:00We had that game. We had a Duke-Louisville basketball game, I believe.
39:04I told you this happened to me in South Carolina when the NCAA, the first day of March Madness.
39:10They didn't have a March Madness game on? They did not have a March Madness game on.
39:15I mean, come on. Yes, last night they had a Mets game from two years ago on.
39:20Like, put a live game. It's a Stanley Cup on, dude.
39:24Come on. I was at Flanagan's over the weekend after a baseball tournament, whatever it was, game.
39:29I don't remember where we were. I think it was our tournament was done.
39:33And I'm sitting with one of my buddies, and he's facing the bar TVs.
39:38And he's like, he keeps commenting on the Dodgers.
39:41And he was like, yeah, this, whatever. And then it was like maybe an hour in.
39:46And he's like, I cannot believe what I just have been doing.
39:49I've been watching the 2025 playoffs. It's easy to get tricked.
39:53Wait, Heath, so did they rectify this mistake and put the games on?
39:57They were unable to resolve it by the time that I finished my first refreshment.
40:02And so we found another establishment. Ridiculous. All right, Heath, you talked about Josh Downs.
40:06You also wanted to discuss Tyler Warren, who is currently in Fantasy Pros ADP.
40:11He's currently tied in four. But he's 21 picks after Colston Loveland, who's tied in three.
40:16Loveland's going 42nd. Tyler Warren's 64th. I like that.
40:19Do you like that? I'm starting to like it more.
40:22I had Tyler Warren write about where ADP was, and I was really struggling with him and Pitts and Laporta.
40:28We talked earlier about his role of 19 red zone targets and 11 targets inside the 10-yard line.
40:34He was also averaging over 13 fantasy points per game before Daniel Jones got hurt.
40:38His, like Josh Downs, his ADOT much more similar to Michael Pittman than Alec Pierce's, so he could get a little bit of a target boost from that.
40:47And he actually led amongst tight ends who saw 100 targets last year.
40:51His 6.2 yards after catch per reception was the best.
40:54Hmm. Hmm. Okay. This is a guy who was just horrible after the Daniel Jones injury.
40:59Yes. And really hurt his numbers. Hmm. Let's see.
41:02The last five games, he had 133 yards and no touchdowns.
41:06I think we probably should not hold that against him at all.
41:09My only hesitation still is, like, he was so great with the best nine-game stretch of Daniel Jones' life.
41:15None of us expect Daniel Jones to be that good again in 2026.
41:19So what does that mean for Warren? Well, I mean, to be fair, Daniel Jones was finally on a good team.
41:26Uh, no. Hey. The record says he was. Well, it's kind of true, but also there was that one year with Dable where they were good.
41:34Daniel Jones made the playoffs. I think it's interesting what you said there, Heath, because, like, we have Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles injury.
41:42You know, it's – I'm also – look, should they have gone to Riley Leonard right away?
41:47Why? Because he looked much better than Phillip Rivers at the end of the season.
41:52And is it Riley Leonard? I think it's going to be Riley Leonard, but, like, could it be Anthony Richardson?
41:58So, you know, what do they do if Daniel Jones isn't ready or Daniel Jones gets hurt again?
42:04So, like, tying in Josh Downs, because I'm excited about Josh Downs.
42:08I think Tyler Warren is the top four tight end.
42:11You know, I think a lot of us are excited about Alec Pierce.
42:15Like, just looking at the Colts, like, what happens if it's not Daniel Jones?
42:19Or, as you just said, Heath, appropriately, the best of Daniel Jones.
42:23And we're talking about crappy quarterback play across the board.
42:26So, like, are we too much invested in the Colts?
42:29The thing I love about the Colts, and I think it's a great call of Warren and Downs, like, there's so many
42:36– and Pierce is, like, it's just concentrated targets.
42:39Like, they're – we can name it, but can our audience name without looking up who the fourth pass catcher is?
42:46Or most likely fourth pass catcher? I guess John Taylor, but non-running back, like, who the fourth pass catcher is going to be?
42:53Well, I – no. I don't think you and I know who the fourth pass catcher is going to be.
42:59Well, I mean, on Patriots, it's probably Westbrook and Keenig, but, like, who else?
43:03Who else do they have? I like their rookie, Deion Burks.
43:07Yeah, it could be him too. It's an uphill climb for him to be fourth.
43:12And they like Ashton Doolin. Before I knew the way Adam was structuring this show, I just kind of made some notes
43:18about – like, one stat about several of the players.
43:22And one of the things is kind of related to what Jamie was talking about.
43:26Jonathan Taylor last year had a 68% route share.
43:29He'd never been over 50% in his career. So I do think he's fourth, and I do think that's part of the
43:36case that if he continues to have the increased role in the passing game, it's part of the case for why he's
43:43maybe a little underdrafted in some of our drafts at the very back of round one.
43:48It's amazing when you write these outlooks and have to spend time on these players.
43:53There are just stats that you're like, oh, I had no idea.
43:56I didn't know that that stat existed about this guy.
43:59It's kind of cool to uncover these things. I don't know what the process was for you, Heath, when you saw that
44:06Jonathan Taylor had this route participation rate that he had never had before.
44:10I didn't know that all year last year. Well, I think it gave me – because I was, I think, already just
44:17a little – maybe – like, we all probably have Taylor about the same place amongst the running backs.
44:23I think I was drafting him ahead of a few of the wide receivers.
44:28But I do think, like, we have no question about whether Jonathan Taylor is going to be awesome rushing the football.
44:34The big question with him was he saw 55 targets last year, and he had 20 to 40 the three years before then.
44:41Right. I'm more hopeful, especially with Pittman gone, that he could maintain that target share from last year.
44:47Okay. Let's – last question on Tyler Warren. 64th overall on Fantasy Pros, but 52nd overall on CBS.
44:53Would anybody be willing to take Tyler Warren 52nd overall?
44:56I'm right there. In that range. I think it depends on, you know, how quickly the other three guys were off the board.
45:03In between those two. Okay. And compare him to Travion.
45:06When we talked about Travion, at least I thought that he's one of these crazy high upside players.
45:12Terrible floor. I think Warren might be the pivot if you're risk averse, and you want somebody who – yes, there's risk.
45:19We talked about it with Daniel Jones coming back from the Achilles.
45:22And all that stuff. But Warren really proved to be a good pass catcher.
45:27Good work after the catch. Maybe sees an even bigger uptick in touchdowns.
45:31I think he's a safer pick than somebody like Travion Henderson, who just has so many different ways that he could go.
45:38Last stat here. Tyler Warren had the fourth most screen pass targets among tight ends.
45:43Behind, believe it or not, Trey McBride, one. Chigo Konkwo, two.
45:46Johnnie Smith, three. Tyler Warren, fourth. Fourth most screen pass targets.
45:49He had 13. Colson Loveland had zero. Zero screen pass targets last year for Colson Loveland.
45:54All right. Next player is Quentin Johnston. Quentin Johnston is wide receiver 41.
45:58He's a little bit ahead of Josh Downs, who we talked about earlier.
46:03Downs is wide receiver 47 in ADP. Quentin Johnston, Fantasy Pro's ADP, is wide receiver 41.
46:08That's 96th overall. It's between Chris Godwin and Jaden Reed.
46:11This is Jamie's dude. Jamie, what do you think about Quentin Johnston?
46:14Jamie's dude in terms of he wrote the outlooks for the AFC West.
46:19What do you think about Quentin Johnston? I think in best ball, I'd rather have Quentin Johnston than Josh Downs.
46:25But in redraft, I'd rather have Josh Downs. But look, Quentin Johnston is a home run hitter, as we've seen.
46:31And clearly they like him much more, I think so, than the fantasy community.
46:35Maybe we're starting to come around on him, or at least the people drafting are.
46:40But look, this was a bust in his rookie campaign, and he's worked his way back to the fact where they picked up his fifth-year option.
46:48I don't think anybody would have thought that after what we saw in the beginning part of his career.
46:54But it's back-to-back years with eight touchdowns. Really, the thing for me that I'm excited about is, and I hope it remains
47:01the same, that we don't get a Keenan Allen signing or somebody else joining the roster, is I think we're going to
47:08see him on the field a lot. And Mike McDaniel seems to like him very much, comparing him to guys that he's coached in the past.
47:16Now, it's obviously hyperbole to say that he's Andre Johnson and Julio Jones.
47:20But big physical receiver who can make plays. My favorite stat for him is what he did in the first four games
47:27of the season when Joe Alt was healthy, and it was 19.9 PPR points per game in that span.
47:33So that tells me when Justin Herbert had time to throw, he was connecting with Quentin Johnston.
47:38And I think that will be the case. I think Heath said at one point, you wouldn't be surprised if he's in
47:45the same target range as Ladon McConkie, just given what McConkie showed last year in the step back that he took.
47:52But I expect McConkie to lead the team in targets, but I think Johnston will be second.
47:57So they added David Njoku. We'll see how much the tight ends play a role here.
48:02Obviously, Mike McDaniel has done great things with his tight ends.
48:06He's done great things with his running backs. But I think Quentin Johnston is going to get an opportunity to be a
48:13significant playmaker for them and may lead the team in touchdowns.
48:16And he may get a double-digit touchdown season out of him.
48:19So I think just where he's going is great value.
48:23I think he's an unbelievable number four receiver to draft on your team.
48:27Would not shock me, though, if he's pushing to be in the top 30, if the touchdowns are there, which I think
48:34is the thing that's going to put him over the top.
48:37Okay. If anybody want to add anything, it was pretty good.
48:40Quentin Johnston? Yeah, very good. I like him a little more than his ADP.
48:45Jamie, is he the charger you're drafting the most?
48:48No, it's probably Herbert in terms of the drafts I've done so far.
48:52But as I said, I almost leave every draft with at least one charger.
48:56I think they're just where you can get them.
48:59It's easy to gravitate toward them. You know, Hampton's early.
49:02McConkie's sort of at the beginning of the middle.
49:05Herbert and Johnston are, I think, appropriately priced. And then if you want to take a chance on one of the tight
49:12ends or obviously one of the backup running backs.
49:15But I'm just excited about this offense. Really, it comes down to can their offensive line stay healthy because that was such
49:21a big part of just one guy being there.
49:24Joe Alt being there was such a big difference maker for Justin Herbert.
49:28Again, difference maker for Quentin Johnston. And now you're getting Rashawn Slater back, who might be their best offensive line.
49:35So, you know, they completely changed their middle. Center and two guards are going to be different from a year ago.
49:41But I think just the addition of Mike McDaniel and what he did for the Dolphins offense.
49:47Completely different playmakers. Obviously, completely different quarterback. You know, see some comments in here about Trey Harris.
49:52Yes, Trey Harris would hopefully have a role as well, which is why I don't want to see Keenan Allen because I
49:59think Trey Harris could be that third receiver and be a playmaker as well.
50:03But just looking at these guys and what they've done at times in their career, McConkie's rookie season, Quentin Johnston, you know, in some small pockets.
50:11Herbert, obviously, in the beginning part of his career.
50:14Like, there's so much upside for all these guys.
50:17And Amari Hampton showed it last year as well.
50:20I'm just excited about everybody on this team and, again, where you can draft them.
50:24It's a sleeping giant of an offense. Garrett Wilson is Dave's guy.
50:28And Garrett Wilson is currently wide receiver 16. Now, a few days ago, we did the wide receivers 10 through 18 segment or episode.
50:36He was wide receiver 19. That was in our consensus rankings.
50:39Looking at Fantasy Pros ADP, Garrett Wilson is wide receiver 16.
50:4337th overall in between Zay Flowers and Tee Higgins.
50:45And that was a group day of that wide receiver 10 through 18 episode where we had, like, Nico Collins, AJ Brown at the top.
50:53And then I think we had a lot of guys who were kind of similar.
50:58We had Abuka, Teterowell-McMillan, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins. I'm forgetting some of them.
51:02But does Wilson fit right in with that group?
51:05I think he's toward the back of that group.
51:08And I know that last year he got off to such a hot start with Justin Fields.
51:13And you'll think to yourself, oh, what's the worst that could happen if he can average a huge amount of PPR points?
51:20I think it was like 19 PPR points per game with Justin Fields.
51:24Then, of course, he'll do great things with Geno Smith.
51:27But I'm nervous about how this offense has changed.
51:30Geno Smith at quarterback, yeah, it's an upgrade over Justin Fields in many regards.
51:34But Smith has never led a wide receiver to a PPR average past 15 points per game in any of his six seasons as a full-time starter.
51:43So that's a little bit worrisome. We know what the Jets did in the draft.
51:47They've improved their receiving core. Offensive line's better at great.
51:51That means that Geno will have protection, something he didn't have last year.
51:55It should make him more accurate. It also means that the run game could be a little bit more efficient and lean into a little bit more.
52:03I'm nervous about the type of target volume that Garrett Wilson will get relative to last year.
52:08That being said, he's still going to be up there in terms of target volume amongst wide receivers.
52:14I just don't want to overrate him. I don't want to draft him as a top 30 player again.
52:20I think he's after that range. And if you get him in late round, I guess that would be late round three, early round four.
52:28I think that's fine in full PPR. I think that's where he belongs.
52:32Heath, I can't get completely over the fact that two straight years, Garrett Wilson has been a 2024 wide receiver 13 per
52:39game, 2025 wide receiver 10 per game in the first six games of the season.
52:44What happened two years ago? Devontae Adams was acquired.
52:46And that was the end of that. Last year, he got injured.
52:50So I don't know. I look at that. Maybe that's not good enough.
52:54Maybe 13th, 10th. Then we don't have to, you know, then we can justify him being, you know, 18th or so off the board.
53:02But what does that mean? Anything? Those small sample sizes, they mean anything to you?
53:06I think it gives us like maybe one of the reasons that we're still hopeful about a guy who four years into
53:13his career has really not lived up to the hype.
53:16And what I can't get over, and it's a quarterback thing in a lot of ways, but it's still true.
53:23He's played 58 games. He's got over 500 targets in his career, and he's averaging 6.9 yards per target for the entire career.
53:30Which is really like, well, the guy it reminds me the most of is Deontay Johnson, who just got all these targets
53:37and didn't very often turn them into fantasy points unless there were a bunch of catches.
53:42I think Johnson had one great year, if I remember right.
53:45I still think that there's hope. I have hope.
53:48But as bad as Geno Smith was, it's hard for me to say, well, now he's got a better quarterback.
53:54My take on Wilson's low efficiency is that he has never had a good deep ball thrower.
54:00In fact, he's had absolutely terrible deep ball throwers.
54:03And this is one where I've watched a lot of the deep balls, I think all of them from the last two seasons.
54:10And he's been open. I mean, there have been these opportunities, and his quarterbacks have just been absolutely horrible.
54:16He's one of the least successful deep ball guys.
54:18We look at 20 or more air yards since he entered the NFL.
54:23How often does he do that? Because his ADOT's never been over 10.5, and it was 9.1 each of the last two years.
54:30I think he does it enough. I don't know if it's like a lot or a little.
54:35I don't think he's an outlier. Probably pretty normal, my guess.
54:39But I think you're right. I mean, he's got – I compared him to Chris Olave.
54:44I don't remember. We did an episode a couple months ago.
54:47We compared him to Chris Olave and George Pickens, I think, because they were all in the same draft class.
54:53Yeah, I think so. They've all had similar situations where Pickens was held back probably by quarterback play among other things.
55:00Olave quarterback play. Wilson quarterback play. And finally it clicked for Pickens.
55:04And finally all these targets for Olave. Wilson's metrics are so much worse than those guys.
55:09But do we think he's actually worse than them?
55:11Or do we think there's something else there? I mean, I'm sure if you put him with a better quarterback, we would
55:18see what he's capable of doing at a high level.
55:21And, you know, you mentioned it. Like, before Devontae Adams was there, he was looking like that guy.
55:27We saw it last year with Justin Fields, and there's a history with those two guys in college.
55:33So maybe that mattered a little bit. But it's – I just hope he's not one of these guys like we keep
55:40making excuses for year after year after year. And then we never get to see what he's capable of doing.
55:46You know, you've heard me reference this for years, like Stephon Diggs in Minnesota.
55:50And then he gets set free to Buffalo and looks like a league winner.
55:55You know, so plays like a league winner. So will that have to be – will that – is that what it
56:02was going to take for Garrett Wilson to get that type of, you know, reprieve?
56:06Whether it's, you know, the Jets moving on, which they committed to him with his contract, or hopefully finally getting the quarterback right.
56:13I think as he said, like we're counting on Geno Smith to be that guy.
56:18Like that's a hard ask. And then you're factoring in, as Dave alluded to, you know, you bring in the two first-round picks.
56:25Like there's a lot more talent around him. And then you remember what he did when Devontae Adams was there, and it wasn't great.
56:33So I think you just kind of know what Garrett Wilson is.
56:37He's, you know, a chance to be a good number two fantasy receiver.
56:41If there's some spike weeks in there, again, we don't know how that would have played out last year.
56:47If, you know, going back to your question earlier this week, if Malik Neighbors was healthy, what would we be talking about this year?
56:54Well, if Garrett Wilson was healthy and it was 19.9 or, you know, 17 point plus for the season, we'd probably be drafting him in round two.
57:03So, you know, I think there's that upside still.
57:05It's just, can we get it? Can we see it?
57:09Adam, you brought up the film on Garrett Wilson being open, deep downfield, targets of 20-plus air yards.
57:14Geno Smith in Las Vegas last year was terrible on those throws.
57:18And he didn't really have, he had 44 of them.
57:21That's low for him compared to what he did in the three years prior in Seattle.
57:26And in those three years, his completion rate was never worse than 42.6%.
57:30That's top 30 among all quarterbacks cumulatively over the last four seasons.
57:34That includes a top 10-year. His EPA per drop back in those years in Seattle, also very, very good.
57:40Well past the point of average. If he's got the protection, maybe he can make those connections deep with Garrett Wilson.
57:47Maybe that adds a little bit of hope for upside.
57:50Even though we never saw it manifest itself in a great fantasy season for any of Garrett Wilson's receivers.
57:56And for the record, we've rarely seen it in great fantasy seasons for receivers coached up by Frank Reich.
58:02And this is a Jets offense that's finished bottom five in points per game six of the last seven seasons.
58:08But other than all that, maybe there is a chance where Geno can connect with Garrett Wilson.
58:13And maybe that's just enough to make you feel better about drafting him at all, much less with a pick in late round three, early round four.
58:22I would do it. I feel like I'm talking myself into being the Garrett Wilson guy.
58:27Okay. Then let me give you one last counter.
58:29Okay. Just because I was thinking about this, and I think one of the other problems, there have been 27 wide receivers
58:36since Garrett Wilson came into the league with at least 200 targets and an 8-out below 10.
58:42Here are the guys who have less Yakper reception for him in those last four years.
58:47There's Stevon Diggs, Michael Pittman, Juwan Jennings, Jacoby Myers, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen.
58:51Most of those guys are old dudes. They don't run much.
58:54You know what? I think, Keith, I think I'm just willing to say the stats don't matter, and Garrett Wilson's a lot better than what's on paper.
59:03And I'm a pretty big stats guy at this point in my career, my life.
59:07But I don't know. I just feel like I'm willing to throw it out.
59:12I've seen the guy play football. He does some things on the field that are really impressive, and I just feel like
59:19he was putting it together last year. He was so damn good last year, and I was so wrong on him last year.
59:26So I remember going, he's had 140-plus targets all three years of his career, and he hasn't been that good for fantasy.
59:33Is Justin Fields going to be the quarterback that fixes that?
59:36And he did it. And I think Geno Smith, as long as Geno Smith can be close to his Seattle days and
59:43not his Raiders days when they had arguably the worst offensive line in football.
59:47Dave, those deep balls that you mentioned where Geno Smith was really bad last year, he had the fifth highest pressure rate
59:54of all quarterbacks on deep ball attempts. And I watched all of his deep balls, and he was getting his butt kicked on a lot of them.
60:03So I get it, Heath. There is not a statistical argument to make for him other than the fact that he's been
60:10on pace for over 140 targets all four years of his career.
60:13And what I learned from Wilson last year was that anyone who gets that kind of target volume, even if their history isn't that good, has upside.
60:22And I think Wilson showed it last year, and I think he can do it again.
60:27Yeah. I mean, he did score four touchdowns in five games.
60:30He did not even have a 100-yard game. When are you willing to commit to him?
60:35If I can get him in round four, I'm not going to make him a round three pick, unless it's like, you know, second to last pick.
60:44Let's say three, four turn or later. How about you?
60:47So about 35th overall? Yeah. Don't call it that.
60:50I'm pretty close to that in full PPR. Yes, full PPR because the targets, the catches.
60:55Right. Non-PPR is a different. Jamie, Heath, how about you guys?
60:58Garrett Wilson. Same range. In the 40s. Okay. So you're not that far off.
61:03I'll make my last guy quick here. It's DK Metcalf, wide receiver 33 overall in ADP.
61:08No! I thought that was your player outlook. I just, when I wrote the outlook, I just can't make an upside case for him.
61:15I mean, the best thing about DK Metcalf, this is actually pretty cool.
61:19He has his lowest ADP since he was a rookie and by far.
61:23I mean, he's been basically picked top 50 every year since a very good rookie season.
61:28You're finally able to get him in the 70s.
61:31So maybe he can, you know, be a wide receiver 25 to 30 or something like that.
61:36But his target per hour run rate has not been very good for two or three straight years.
61:42It was pretty low last year. Now they've got Pittman.
61:45I don't think he's a great fit for Aaron Rodgers.
61:48I will pretty much never draft DK Metcalf because there are guys, like he's going in between Jordan Tyson and Parker Washington.
61:55And I could see those guys being so much better than DK Metcalf.
61:59They could be so much worse than him. But I just, I feel like in the range DK Metcalf's going, Jamie, I
62:06feel like he has almost no upside, no league winning upside.
62:10He hasn't been that basically since his second year in the NFL.
62:13He's kind of just a name at this point to me.
62:17That's probably the safe way to approach it. I think that if you're going to be optimistic about DK Metcalf, it's Mike McCarthy.
62:24And the hope is that McCarthy will allow the routes to be there for him, that Rodgers will hopefully take some shots to him.
62:32But again, you're asking Rodgers to be different than he was a year ago at his age and Metcalf to sort of relive some of those moments.
62:40So I think he's appropriately priced. I think you're taking him as a low-end number three receiver with the hope that he can be better than that.
62:49But for me, it's a big hope. So I'm kind of with you.
62:53I don't really want to draft DK Metcalf unless he falls to the right spot.
62:57But I also think there's still a chance. It's Jim Carrey and Dumb and Dumber chance.
63:02But I think there's a chance he can get back to that top 20 range if the touchdowns are there, if Aaron
63:09Rodgers buys into more of Mike McCarthy as opposed to Mike McCarthy buying more into Aaron Rodgers.
63:15There is still some paths to success. I just don't want to take a chance on him for the most part.
63:21That was a soundbite. All right. That's DK Metcalf.
63:24Which Scott Fishbowl League are you guys in? I haven't chosen yet.
63:28I am drafting live in Miami. I'll be in the GTA.
63:31The Grand Theft Auto League. Very cool. Or should I say Grand Theft Alvarado, Nixon 4.
63:36Dave, how about you? I'm in the Burger Time.
63:39What the heck is Burger Time? You don't know what Burger Time is?
63:43No. The video game? I don't remember that game.
63:46That's when Dave goes to a restaurant and turns a burger into a chicken sandwich.
63:51No. I did that yesterday. Why would Burger Time be when I turn a burger into a chicken sandwich?
63:57It's just what you do. I would turn a chicken sandwich into a burger.
64:01I actually did this last night, Jamie. You would be not at all surprised to learn that I ordered a salad, and
64:08it was supposed to have chicken on it, and I turned it into a burger.
64:12And it was really good. Wait, what? How did you turn a salad that was supposed to have chicken on it into a burger?
64:20I asked the server if the kitchen would put a burger on it instead of chicken, and she said, yeah, they can do that.
64:28And I was like, cool, I'll have it. Wait, just the ground meat part.
64:32And I like to think of it more as like a bowl than a burger.
64:37So I had a burger bowl. I had a bunless burger.
64:40I had a burger. Okay. Wouldn't it be funny if Dave had a salad, and they just put like a cheeseburger on it?
64:47A full cheeseburger with the bun on top? This is very healthy.
64:51I would like to see what that looks like.
64:54I'm going to have to ask AI to do that for me.
64:58I'm going to have a salad tonight. Big greasy cheeseburger on top of a salad.
65:02Yeah. And then I can tell my wife I had a salad.
65:06She'll be like, oh, good for you. I'm proud of you.
65:10I'm in the RBI Baseball League, by the way.
65:12What a game. Sega Genesis RBI Baseball, I think 93.
65:15So you know those games, but you don't know Burger Time.
65:19What system was Burger Time? I mean, it was before you were born.
65:23Oh. It was in the arcades. And then, I mean, I still have it for Nintendo, the original NES.
65:29Yeah. I don't know. This looks horrible. Looking at some images right now, it looks like a terrible game.
65:35Bad pick. That's fun. Bad pick. Well, thanks for watching and listening, everybody.
65:39Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Podcasts.
65:42Are you really buying a car online on AutoTrader right now?
65:45Really. I can get super specific with dealer listings and see cars based on my budget.
65:50You can really have it delivered. Or pick it up.
65:53Mommy, look. I think your kid is walking up the slide.
65:57Really? AutoTrader. Buy your car online. Really.
