12 High-Risk, High-Reward Players Who Could Make or Break Your Fantasy Football Draft (Ep. 2044)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 4, 2026
Published
Thu, June 4, 2026
15
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Luther BurdenCaleb WilliamsDe'Von AchaneEmeka EgbukaKenneth GainwellQuinshon JudkinsA.J. BrownColston Loveland
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveBreakout0:48
A.J. Brown has the potential to be a league winner with a projected 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in his new role with the Patriots.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection0:41
Caleb Williams has the potential to throw for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns, which could place him in the top five quarterback conversation this season.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:42
Caleb Williams is worth the investment as a quarterback option if you miss out on the tier one or tier two quarterbacks, given his upside.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout0:08
Colston Loveland has the potential to be the number one tight end overall, especially given his target share in the second half of last season.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveValue0:04
Devon Achan's ADP is settling in the 6-7 range, which reflects his potential as a top five fantasy running back, but concerns about the Dolphins' offensive environment linger.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:05
Achan's production significantly drops without Tua Tagovailoa, averaging only 10.5 PPR points per game compared to 21.5 PPR points per game with him.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveValue0:18
Emeka Ekbuka is currently ranked 22 in ECR but has an ADP of 16, indicating that drafters are high on him. His performance in the first half of last season showcased his potential as a productive fantasy wide receiver.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:19
Ekbuka has a high floor and is projected to catch a significant number of passes, potentially 100 balls every year, despite concerns about his ceiling.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveDepth Chart0:58
Kenneth Gainwell's role is being elevated due to Bucky Irving's injury, but there are concerns about his ADP and potential split in carries.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:59
Kenneth Gainwell is viewed as a high-end RB3 with potential for top 20 production, especially if he can secure a larger role in the offense.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveRole0:24
Luther Burden's role as the number three pass catcher on the Bears raises concerns about his ability to justify a top 24 fantasy wide receiver price tag.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:25
Burden flashed at the end of last season, showing elite metrics in yards per route run and yards after the catch, indicating potential for a breakout.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:26
Burden's snap share was limited last season, playing over 60% of the snaps in only three games, which raises questions about his usage in a tight end-heavy offense.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveRole0:52
Quinchon Judkins is expected to have a significant role in the backfield, but the team may not utilize him as a bell cow due to the presence of other options like Dylan Sampson.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:53
Judkins is a worthwhile investment at his current ADP as he has the potential to be a top 15 running back if he receives a significant workload.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros.
0:04This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me, Joey P, Joe P, Zappia.
0:07And today, it's no risk it, no biscuit. That's what we're talking about.
0:11The players of certain risk, which ones we're willing to go for and which ones you should be looking at.
0:16And to help us identify those names, of course, Jake Seeley from The Athletic and from The Tailgate Show.
0:22That's all I'm going to introduce you now. That's right.
0:24Andrew Erickson, Mr. Big Pod Energy, and myself, Joey Erickson.
0:27Joe P, Zappia. We're going to talk about some risky players, which is always a good time because to win a fantasy
0:33league, sometimes you got to lay down the line a little bit.
0:36Isn't that right, Jakey? Right? Sometimes if you're not first, you're last.
0:40I know Derek Brown has done that a couple times in your flex leagues.
0:44He's either first or last many, many times I've seen it.
0:47Nobody ever remembers who finished in third place. Nobody cares.
0:49The only reason we sometimes remember second place is because people complain about, oh, I just, there was no way I was going to win.
0:56I had to face blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
0:59And no, I'm not saying that about you, Joe, because we just talked on the last podcast.
1:03I was going to say, I feel like that was personal because I was going for my third flex championship and here I get to do it.
1:11Third and a half. Third and a half. That's right.
1:13Third and a half. And I lost to Lawrence.
1:16Great guy. But he had Derek Henry and B.
1:18John Robinson on the same team. You were screwed.
1:21But the point being is this is why we talk the upside because you're it's the Ricky Bobby.
1:26It's the joke that we all make, but it's you want first place because even like, even if you're fifth place, nobody cares.
1:32Like nobody remembers. You don't get any kudos for it.
1:35Good season, whatever. Who cares? No, we just want first place.
1:38That's the end of it. Erickson. I mean, I think a certain amount of risk is important in every single roster you build.
1:44It's when you decide to put that risk into your roster with the draft capital.
1:48That to me is what matters the most. And I think to talking about capturing this upside, making sure you're drafting players
1:54that have league winning potential, because a lot of the times every single year is defined by a handful of players where last year it was.
2:01Did you have JSN? Jeff Christian McCaffrey probably did pretty good in your fantasy league.
2:05And that's really what it came down to be John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, a couple of key players that really made the difference.
2:12So again, you just have to hit on one of those guys.
2:15So if you drafted JSN last year and you drafted a bunch of bus players that you took shots on thinking that
2:21they were high risk, high reward and they all fizzled out.
2:24Well, it didn't matter because you had JSN. So I think that taking enough shots on these high risk, high reward players
2:30is a smart strategy, even if they all end up not panning out.
2:34All right. We're going to discuss some of those strategies.
2:36Sorry, I didn't want to look to that point because I think you were kind of baiting and Andrew talked about a
2:42little bit there to make the point is you've been around me.
2:46I've been around you for almost two decades. Unfortunately, yes.
2:48Unfortunately for you. But you know what I've always said, don't buy all the risk to what Andrew is saying is that
2:54if we talk these guys up, talk these guys up, talk these guys up.
2:58And by August, all of a sudden you're buying all the risk and there's no potential return on investment.
3:03That's where we go wrong. Absolutely true. And yes, I've known you way too long, way too long.
3:08We've established all these things. All right. Joe had a full luscious head of hair before he met me.
3:14That's actually not true. That's how long my bald head is old enough to drink.
3:18It's been 22 years now. Let me tell you, it's been a long time since I shaved my head.
3:23Very long time. But of course, we're going to get to these names.
3:26Make sure you subscribe to the channel. Make sure you drop your comments below.
3:30And of course, like this video, it's very easy thing to do.
3:34Let's start off with the guys in the early rounds.
3:36And this is where you really got to kind of push things forward.
3:40So Erickson, let's start with Devon Achan. Obviously going into this year, there was some speculation because of the contract.
3:45What was going to happen with Devon Achan? Was it going to linger into camp?
3:49That's not the case. The Dolphins realized, hey, we've got one exciting skill player.
3:53We might as well make sure that we bring him into camp on time and keep him happy.
3:58So the question is, behind a bad offensive line and a situation around him that is less than thrilling.
4:03Would we say yes around tailgate? I think I said that the wide receiver room looks like the waiver wire of a 14-team fantasy league.
4:10That's what it looks like in Miami right now.
4:13The 2-2 Atwells and the Malik Washingtons of the world.
4:15So where's the Devon Achan risk for you? Is it in an appropriate spot that you're interested because of the amount of volume?
4:22Or are you concerned about the offensive line and the other weapons and being a very predictable and maybe less than thrilling offense?
4:28Can't forget the past game coordinator for the Maya Dolphins, Kevin Petula.
4:31Famously, the office coordinator last year for the Philadelphia Eagles that did not necessarily shake out super well.
4:36So I guess... Erickson, how do these guys get hired everywhere all that?
4:40Like, it is awesome. We got to get into this thing where we get to be an offensive coordinator and work for
4:46the rest of our lives other places. It's who you know, Joe.
4:49That's why I work at Fantasy Bros, because I know you.
4:52Right? That's true. That's true. That's true. So with Achan, for me, it's what if I don't end up drafting him as
4:58a fringe top five fantasy running back? That's kind of where his ADP ECR is kind of settling in that 6-7 range.
5:04For me, it's this environmental factor where if this offense is not good, are you going to regret passing on Achan, who
5:10we can all agree has a top five fantasy running back upside?
5:14That's kind of what he's been over the last two seasons.
5:17A lot of that has come, though, from his explosive plays, which don't...
5:20That's not going to go away with Malik Willis as the quarterback, because he's still going to get a ton of volume.
5:26But I am worried about what type of receiving volume he will get attached to a mobile quarterback.
5:31One of the first articles I ever wrote for PFF back in the day was how mobile quarterbacks affect the passing game
5:37and receiving target shares for running backs. And those numbers decline.
5:40So last year, or the last two seasons with Tua as his quarterback and when Tua has missed games, it was an eight-game sample size.
5:47Achan has averaged over 21.5 PPR points per game with Tua.
5:50Without Tua, 10.5 PPR points per game. His targets go from six per game to 2.5.
5:54And looking at Malik Willis' last four starts, the target shares for the running backs in those particular...
5:59Or the entire running backs for the Green Bay Packers dropped significantly.
6:0312.2% last year. Two years ago, it was 12.5%.
6:05So I don't think that Achan necessarily has the same type of receiving ceiling unless everything really does go through him.
6:11And he's basically like the first read in this passing game, which I think could be possible because of how bad the
6:17receivers are profiling as in this offense. But that's, I think, best case scenario for a team that I think that we
6:23all can agree can probably be in the quarterback market in 2027.
6:26How many touchdowns are they going to score? So if it's...
6:29He has to catch a lot of passes from a quarterback who probably doesn't predict the throw to the running back that
6:35often or rip off a lot of massive plays.
6:38So I just think that he has to really thread the needle to hit his highest range of outcomes, which I feel
6:44like is not most likely the scenario here. So for me, I'm going in different directions than Achan at the top of,
6:50you know, the end of round one, beginning of round two, because there's other running backs I like a little bit more.
6:56There's other wide receivers I like a little bit more.
6:58So again, I address the upside. Top five running back because he's really talented, great pass catcher.
7:03But this environment does kind of scare me as some more risk that people need to weigh.
7:08Jake, if there's a running back that I'm taking a risk on at the turn, it's a Murray in Hampton, which is risky.
7:14I identify it as risk because it hasn't happened yet.
7:17He's coming off an injury-plagued rookie season. So it's a new offense.
7:20There's so much risk there. Yet Devon Achan is probably going to still be in that conversation for a lot of people in that same range.
7:27So is Achan somebody that you think is worth the risk because you've seen it before?
7:32Or are you somebody that would pivot somewhere else for a gente risk or a Hampton risk instead?
7:36So I'm okay with the turn in that range, admittedly.
7:39And we've talked about it before. Shout out to the late, great Mike Tagliere.
7:43We've talked about it all the time about how hard it is for a running back to finish as an RB1 in a bottom five offense.
7:50So if anybody out there believes that Dolphins are going to have a bottom five offense, and he even cut it off
7:56by saying bottom 10, let alone bottom five. Bottom five is almost impossible.
8:00There's a really slim chance that he does, to Erickson's point.
8:03Right. I'm still okay with it because if we do see any glimpse of Malik Willis, a very small sample, but in
8:09being able to play this position, this offense, having somewhat of a semblance, maybe Bell gets healthy before the season starts or within quick time.
8:16Douglas is somebody that everybody overlooked and he's better than anybody would have thought, myself included.
8:20Everybody on the show. Nobody thought Douglas was going where he was going in the draft.
8:24Maybe they're right and everybody else is wrong, but maybe everything clicks.
8:28But that's a lot of maybes. And that's why I say, I think my bigger thing is I'm okay with that.
8:33He's in a tier for me. He's in a tier with Walker and Brown and Hampton and Henry and Love where it's
8:39like, you don't need to take him there because even if he does hit his numbers, those numbers for those other running
8:45backs should be right there with them where you get them late in the second round versus taking them at that turn
8:51and having to have that season that Erickson's talking about.
8:54Jake, one guy that I am taking a risk on is Colston Loveland.
8:58And it's because I do believe he has the upside to be tight end one overall.
9:02I think he is clearly the guy that the offense is going to filter through this year.
9:07If you watch closely in the second half of last season to the playoffs, it felt like that was potentially where that was turning.
9:13Where are you with that Loveland stock right now and how risk reward it might be?
9:18Because whenever you take a tight end when the first four rounds, you end up being lighter somewhere else, usually a wide receiver.
9:24Yeah. And yeah, I mean, you don't even have to, you talk about the playoffs, the playoffs were absurd, but even if
9:30you go all the way back to like week 13, hell, the middle of the season where it's really started to click.
9:36But week 13 was like when he was being the guy and he had about 24% of the team's targets.
9:42That's crazy for a tight end. We would love that for any tight end.
9:45But the real thing here is the risk factors are, and we've already seen Roman Dunzey talking about his foot injury, changing
9:51his bone structure or something like that. Supposedly he's okay, but it incorporated with Oduzey's injury and Luther Burden finally started to
9:57break out along towards the end of the season.
10:00And we're all excited about Luther Burden. So there's two parts here is one is, and you know this because we talked
10:06the other day, but when I did my projections, Loveland came out as the number one tight end.
10:11Like I was legitimately surprised and I made a tongue in cheek joke.
10:14Like I've been wrong on projections. I've been wrong on rankings, but I make a ton in cheek joke where I was like, you know what?
10:22The last time I questioned an insane ranking was 2019 when Lamar Jackson spat out as my number two quarterback.
10:27And I'm like, eh, let me push him down to number five and make some manual adjustments.
10:32Shouldn't have done that because that's when he finished number one by a landslide.
10:36And I'm not saying that's going to happen with Loveland, but the projections are there, but the projections are baked into the
10:42fact that he's a top two target. The risk is that if Oduzey is a hundred percent looks like he did at
10:48the beginning of the last season and all three are great and all three will be great fantasy assets.
10:53It just takes a little bit away. And all of a sudden he's 19, 20% of a team target share, which we still love.
10:59It's just not enough to make him the number one.
11:02So I am okay with putting them in that top tier conversation.
11:05Just understand that similar to what my point was at the beginning that we all agreed with if people are going to
11:11start drafting Colson Loveland at like the two, three turn.
11:14Now he has to be that. And you've eliminated all the potential fun you could get out of it.
11:19Andrew Erickson. Let's turn our attention to Malik neighbors because obviously the second surgery did not sit well with a lot of people.
11:26A lot of people concerned about that. Uh, there's also some footage going around this week of him at a charity softball
11:32event, uh, playing some dodgeball and doing some other things where, you know, he was running a first base after he gets a hit very gingerly.
11:39Now he just had surgery again. So obviously that would make sense, but it's not making a lot of people feel warm and fuzzy.
11:45Currently the ADP for him is still in those, you know, first few rounds, which I understand because that's where his talent
11:51is, but talent aside, is he worth the risk considering where his health is?
11:55I don't think he's worth the risk when he's going as a top 12 wide receiver.
12:00When I think that he's most likely going to start the season on the PUP list.
12:04So he's already going to be slated to miss games to open the year.
12:08This is optimism season. Everyone is in the best shape of their life.
12:11Everybody is. The game is slowing down Joe for all of these players.
12:15They're understanding the playbook. They feel so fantastic. And yet Malik neighbors, it's negative after negative after negative when it comes to his news.
12:21And it's just June. We're not, we're still two months away from August from training camp.
12:26So for me, it's when he comes back, are we even getting elite fantasy production from him?
12:31Remember, we haven't even seen him really play with Jackson Dart in games.
12:34Again, we're referring to his two years. Yeah. That one game that Jackson Dart started Malik neighbors also got hurt in.
12:40So a lot of projection here with just, okay, we got to buy the talent, buy the talent.
12:45Well, where's the dip? Because you're still got to pay a wide receiver one price tag when there are other really talented
12:51wide receivers going in Malik neighbors range that also have a lot of upside.
12:55Matt Nagy. He concerns me as the offensive coordinator.
12:57The chiefs were more than happy to say, see ya.
13:00Like we want to bring back Eric B. Enemy.
13:02Bye. Bye. So that to me, an offense they've been talking a little bit more about.
13:07We want to run the ball. We want to establish run with Harbaugh.
13:10And this is a long-term investment. I think Harbaugh is a draft developed type of team.
13:15So are they going to rush Malik neighbors back?
13:17We got to jam this guy 15 targets a game.
13:20I don't think so. So for me, I don't think that we're going to necessarily see Malik neighbors elite fantasy production.
13:26Maybe not in 2026 at all. Maybe towards the end of the season, you start to see it the last four weeks or something along those lines.
13:33Second half of the year, which is why there is this still optimism in the back of people's minds and drafters minds
13:39that we can turn it around as the season progresses.
13:42But I just think that when push comes to shove, there's going to be an opportunity to buy low on Malik neighbors.
13:48I know that we say this all the time.
13:50It's like, no, you can't buy low. It's like, well, we said the same about Brian Thomas Jr.
13:55last year. And yeah, you could have bought low on him and it wouldn't have worked.
14:00And it was stayed low. It was stayed low just for the record show that Jake, for me, Malik neighbors is more
14:06of a player outside the top 20 wide receivers in the top 12.
14:09And I think that's my problem right now with him.
14:12So I'm with you. I actually have Malik neighbors at 25 right now, only because it's not the talent.
14:17It's not the talent. It's Terry McLaurin, Ladd McConkie, Garrett Wilson and Buka, who we're going to talk about in a second.
14:23Higgins, Flowers. Like just as of today, they don't have the question mark.
14:27And the question mark is the health. And, you know, is it a late like even if it's not the pup, which,
14:33by the way, we just glossed past Andrew calling it the PUP and not the pup.
14:37Like, I don't think of it. Come on. It's like everybody said, call it the PUP.
14:41He just got a dog in the house. So now it's very sensitive.
14:45If he says pop, then the puppy comes running.
14:47OK, that's fair. And the show stops. I will paint the one.
14:51Like, everybody is focusing on Nagy. Nagy. I don't know why I said Nagy.
14:55Nagy. Why? You said PUP. I know. This is the whole show.
14:58I think I will say I'll paint that positive in one thing.
15:01He brought in Nagy to focus only on the passing game.
15:04That's what we know he can do. He also brought in Callahan, who's going to coach up the quarterbacks in passing game.
15:10But Greg Roman is focusing on the run game.
15:13Roman, amazing run game. Sucks at passing game. Nagy, great at the passing game.
15:16Sucks at the running game. This is actually pretty smart by Harbaugh.
15:20He's taking two guys who can't do the other things and meshing them together.
15:24All that being said, I'm still massively concerned about Malik neighbors.
15:27Because even if he avoids the PUP, as you mentioned, what if it takes four weeks to get to the neighbors we know?
15:33And those four weeks do matter. Yes. After that, if it's 100%, maybe he is putting back those top 10 numbers.
15:39But it's a lot of question marks for the guys in front of him that just don't have the same questions.
15:44You know, it's funny. I was looking at my rankings and I knew I had him in the 20s.
15:50I actually have him at 27. So there you go.
15:52Further than you do. So look at us hating together.
15:55All right. Let's get my model in front of him.
15:58I'm going to mention it. Jalen Waddell is right behind him.
16:01Yeah. Who do you have at 26 and 25?
16:03I'm curious. Cortland Sutton, Garrett Wilson. Okay. So I don't have Sutton, but I do have Wilson.
16:08So, okay. Yeah. It's still in that range. We're in the same.
16:11Believe me, it'll change 5,000 times between now and September 1st.
16:14Yeah. There's no time for it to change. Because there's another guy I know we've discussed recently too.
16:19And there is some risk because as good as it was in the beginning of the year, as bad as it was towards the end of the year.
16:27So you also have the risk of no more Mike Evans there too, which is sometimes great for a young wide receiver
16:33where you have that other guy that takes a ton of attention away where you're working a single coverage and he's not going to have that luxury anymore.
16:41And Mekka Agbuka is on the map for opposing defenses.
16:43So should he be on the map as current ADP in your opinion here risk-wise for fantasy managers?
16:48I think it's a little bit risky, but the upside is there.
16:51That being said, for everybody out there who already has their opinion on Mekka, I'm not really talking to you because I'm just trying to paint a picture.
16:59Like there's going to be a lot of people because I've brought them up before and people are like, you're insane.
17:05He's amazing. Like if you've already come to that conclusion, there's not really much of a conversation.
17:10The conversation I want to have is that there is some risk.
17:13He started out the season hot, similar to doing Zay with no Godwin, no Evans because Evans was hurt.
17:18And then, well, once it clicked and then it came back and then all that type of attention when he was getting
17:24after Evans got hurt as the number one, as you said, was the question marks that he had coming out.
17:30Is he a really great 1B or can he be a true NFL number one wide receiver?
17:34There were legit questions about it. He's still only going into his second season.
17:38It can happen. And especially with Godwin, McMillan, let's not forget how talented he is and coming off injury out of college
17:44and the talent that started to flash at times his rookie season and that one game late last year where he led
17:50the team and targets in that entire game. But all that being said is like, can he lead that collection or is
17:56Godwin at this point not the guy when we knew McMillan isn't a true number one or two?
18:01Hearst, maybe not a factor yet. And all of a sudden, as you said, that number one attention week in and week out makes him struggle.
18:08That's the only reason. Like I think that just has to be baked in.
18:12Do I believe Ibuka can do it? Yes. But I think we need to factor in that risk that maybe he's not
18:18until a year three where we really start to see it click.
18:21And that's why I don't have Ibuka near my top 15.
18:24I have him at 22, which is lower than most right around consensus, though.
18:28There's like basically it seems like there's a lot of 15s or a lot of 25s and not a lot of like,
18:34you know, I'm just going to kind of play it as it is.
18:38So I think he's fair where he is as a fringe wide receiver, too.
18:42I just want to go past that. I got him at 21.
18:45Eric, I'm curious where you have him. I'm in that similar range, similar to where the ECR, I believe that ADP is
18:51actually the one that's like the highest on Ibuka in some of these best ball drafts.
18:55Well, no, Ibuka is at 22 right now in ECR.
18:58So I'm looking at today as of today. Yeah.
19:00Well, ADP, he's 16. Yeah, he's much higher in ADP drafters really like Ekmaku Ibuka.
19:05And I'm kind of buying it a little bit more.
19:07I don't know exactly where I have him ranked.
19:10I have to pull it up. But I think for me, it's what I saw in the first half of the season.
19:16Like he already broke out. I feel like he's not as much of a projection as a guy that we'll talk about
19:22a little bit more with Luther Burden, another second year wide receiver where Burden flash at the end of the season in a pretty small sample size.
19:29Ibuka played basically the entire season last year. Did not end well, but it's pretty easy to justify why it didn't end well.
19:35He got hurt. Baker Mayfield got hurt. Buccaneers offensive line pieces got hurt.
19:39Everything kind of crumbled around him. But when we were talking about who's going to win offensive rookie of the year, who
19:45was the runaway favorite the first half of the season?
19:48It was Emeka Ekbuka. And even his totality, again, still a very productive fantasy wide receiver from day one.
19:53And going back to his prospect profile, everything that we talked about with Ekbuka, or at least the overarching point with a
19:59player coming out of Ohio State, was this guy is such a high floor.
20:03He's going to catch 100 balls every single year.
20:05And I feel like we've gotten so far away from that because of last year's roller coaster type of season when going
20:11back to the prospect profile, Ekbuka profiled as, yeah, this guy's just going to just eat a ton of receptions, get a ton of volume.
20:18Maybe the ceiling's not there for him, but he's going to have a super high floor.
20:23And now the conversation has kind of flipped on its head where now it's like, is he boom or bust?
20:28Ekbuka, Ekbuka. So I think that they're the floor.
20:31Well, I think real quick, I think what you just said is part of what I'm getting into the risk that I didn't specify.
20:37It's the volume. I even drew the comparison to Keenan Allen.
20:40I think he does need 130 plus targets to be a wide receiver one.
20:44If he's only getting 110 to 120, still really good wide receiver two.
20:47I just think he's more volume than big play reliant because he doesn't have that elite downfield speed.
20:52Not that this is crucifying the guy. He's still a great wide receiver two.
20:56I just, I have concerns of whether he can get to be in a wide receiver one.
21:01That's all it is. Yeah, I think that's legitimate.
21:03All right. Before we get to Luther Burton, who Erickson just teased, don't forget, support our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet.
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21:22Finals and the NHL Stanley Cup Finals and Major League Baseball.
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22:10Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what?
22:13We have some big news. What's the news, Nick?
22:15Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas.
22:18We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
22:21We just contributed to it. Wide range of podcasts throughout there.
22:24But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with the name Hey Jonas, guys?
22:29I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
22:33Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.
22:38This is how you guys remember it going down?
22:41Yes. I have a very different memory of this.
22:43We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas, and then
22:49I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
22:55But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
23:01Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
23:03Welcome to Sabora Football. The sweet and the spicy on and off the field.
23:07I'm Daniela Duran, and this is where we get to know the people behind the game like never before.
23:12The pressure, the fame, and everything that happens when the cameras turn off.
23:16Enjoy conversations with guests like Marc Bartra. ¿Te gusta más Víctor Oraldez o Casillas?
23:20Claro que... ¿Y qué Casillas? Puyol y Piqué. Ener Valencia.
23:22Sí, en las tardes, la verdad que siempre se formen los pueblos, se forman los partidos a las tardes, pero el sueño
23:28de ser futbolista ese es la verdad que no.
23:31Sharon Escobar, Pollo Buseño. Andas o no con mi rodada.
23:34Estás viral con eso, estás viral. Estás viral, estás viral.
23:36Mandé un mensajito nada más de saludos. Fede Pereira.
23:39Si tú dices, no puedo elegir, te los zampas.
23:41Yo no soy tibio, pero... ¡Andale! Yo me la juego.
23:44Sí me gusta, un aplauso. Yo me la juego.
23:47And many more. Listen to Sabora Football on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
23:52And it was a ton of exciting, because their new star is Javier Chicharito Hernandez.
23:56He's from Mexico. He took an inclusion. Everyone sees me as a football player, but before anything else, I'm human.
24:01Every single day, I'm still learning how to live with problems, mistakes, relationships, emotions, ever since I was born.
24:07And I still have so many questions. Where do we come from?
24:10What happens after death? How do you deal with cancellations?
24:13Cristiano or Messi? Do aliens exist? What is love?
24:15Real Madrid or Barça? From everyday and ordinary to the deep and extraordinary.
24:19This isn't a normal podcast. Everything here is spontaneous, real and genuine.
24:22This podcast is like a deep talk with your closest friends.
24:25Where vulnerability comes out. Conspiracy theories end up on the table and goals and lessons are shared.
24:30Todo en esta vida tiene un orden perfecto y todo es justo.
24:33Espérenme, yo te voy a apresurarme, pero me lo voy a acabar.
24:36Está buenísimo. We are here to connect. El Chicharito.
24:39Yo Javier el Chicharito Hernández, and together with iHeartRadio, we're going to make the ordinary extraordinary.
24:43Stay close. It is un carac. Wow. Listen to Learning to be Human on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:49Luther Burden is going to be the most discussed guy, Andrew, of any player for the next three months on this program.
24:55So if, you know, just I'm putting out there right now, every year there's that one guy.
25:00This year it's Luther Burden. I can tell already.
25:02So I'd love to hear your take on Luther Burden here.
25:05You know I'm a lovely guy. So talk to me about the risk of Luther Burden here with the Doonze, with Loveland
25:11and, you know, with year two of Ben Johnson.
25:14The risk is that he is the number three pass catcher on the Bears, and there's no way he can justify a
25:20top 24, fringe top 20 fantasy wide receiver price tag.
25:23I'm really with you with Colson Loveland, too. So I don't think that Burden can leave the Bears in targets.
25:28I think it's going to be Colson Loveland. I think that he's an absolute stud.
25:32The office is going to go through him, especially as Ben Johnson looks to increase Caleb Williams' completion percentage.
25:37Now that also benefits Luther Burden because last year the dude absolutely ate underneath.
25:41It's going to give him a lot of opportunities to create yards out to the catch.
25:46So I understand the hype for Burden. It makes a lot of sense.
25:49He flashed at the end of last season, was elite in terms of yards per route run among NFL wide receivers, elite
25:55yards out to the catch, elite in forced missed tackles per reception.
25:59Exactly what we kind of expected him to do coming out of college.
26:02This is exactly what he thrived at as his underneath target that could create yards after the catch.
26:07And when the head coach literally says, I'm going to buy stock in this second year player, I mean, that's going to move a guy's ADP.
26:14So for me, it really does come down to just the price and how this thing shakes out.
26:19Because last year, again, he played three games with over 60% of the snaps.
26:23Is he on the field when the Bears go in a lot of tight end heavy personnel?
26:28Because we know they love to do that. Like Colson Loveland is going to be a focal point of this passing game.
26:34So as the number two guy, can Burden create enough opportunities for himself?
26:37And this really just suggests that Odunze kind of falls way back in this passing, which was not the case at the
26:43beginning of last year when he was healthy and he was the leading Bears receiver before Loveland and Burden had their respective breakouts.
26:49So did they break out because Odunze was hurt?
26:52I think that there's a little bit of both sides here with them also just taking steps as rookies, first year players.
26:58Ben Johnson kind of put in the training wheels to start.
27:01So Burden to me is just super polarizing. But when I look at the price and the guys going around him again,
27:07in his best ball ADP, the player that goes right next to him is Lamar Jackson.
27:11I like in terms of just like who's going to have a better season this year.
27:16Who do you feel better about? Who's safer? I mean, I would probably say Lamar Jackson is much safer than Luther Burden is.
27:22Glad McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Egbuka.
27:25I would rather have Egbuka than Luther Burden. I don't know if that's a hot take or necessarily, but I would do.
27:31I feel more comfortable about Egbuka. What about you, Jake?
27:33Egbuka or Burden for you? I think it's an easy toss up, in my opinion, as in like I'm probably going to
27:39try to have shares of both, but I know I'm probably going to have to only pick one.
27:44So I'll try to diversify there because I do see the upside with Burden because there's one name, not Burden, not Odunze,
27:50not even Loveland that Erickson kept saying in there.
27:53That's the key here. Ben Johnson. What has Ben Johnson just done for Amara St.
27:57Brown? Like just like let's make that clear. Like the fact is, is like what can we do?
28:02Is Luther Burden in that style, in that offense?
28:04It's the excitement we have for that. I think that Luther Burden can be the one and two is that both of
28:10them have 22, 23 with Loveland, 23, 24% of the target share.
28:14And Odunze still has 20 because the other part of it too is this is a funneled offense in the passing game.
28:20Like if we're going to get the best out of Caleb Williams, we're not throwing to the other jabronis down the list
28:26and Jaday Walker, even that like he's a fun prospect name to say, like he flashed here and there, like whatever they
28:32want to do with Xavier and Thomas, if they want to throw him at running back and they're like, it's going to be these three.
28:38And then DeAndre Swift focus on these three, make the, you know, bring it down.
28:43And if you look at what the lions do and what the bears are trying to replicate, it's a lot of that.
28:49And if we get the breakout for Caleb Williams, all three can eat.
28:52But I think that the biggest risk here of eating is actually Odunze.
28:56Like I actually feel better than Erickson does. But all that being said, I have them as a toss up where I
29:02do agree with Andrew is that the steam and what you said, we're going to talk about and talk about and talk about and talk about them.
29:09I feel like burden is going to get near that.
29:12Like why receiver 12, 13, 14 costs by the time we get to August.
29:16And that's where the problem is going to lie.
29:18Like for me, for me, just before we get off burden, are we hoping that burden just turns into like what Jalen,
29:24I mean, obviously I'm on Ross St. Brown is like the highest percentile outcome, but if he has like a Jalen Waddle
29:30type season where it's like super efficient fringe fantasy wide receiver one, like couldn't you just draft Jalen Waddle instead of just
29:36like hoping that the projection comes out for like that's for me because a lot of these busts, like looking back on
29:42when I've written up bust articles in the past, the guy, the most common theme with wide receiver busts is who is
29:48the highest drafted guy that is going off of projection.
29:51Like hasn't truly experienced the actual breakout in terms of were they a top 24 fantasy wide receiver at any point in their career?
29:58It's always these guys. It tends to be these players that were buying the projection.
30:02We're buying the breakout at peak price and they fall flat on their face, not because they were bad necessarily, but it's
30:08because they can't meet the expectation, which burden just seems like it's going to go up and up and up.
30:13How are you not trying to fight a smile with me, Joe?
30:16Like, because I'm smiling at the fact that somehow Andrew brought Jalen Waddle into the conversation.
30:21But the real danger for me is that people can, you know, you can't compare him to the same talent level that Amon Ross St.
30:28Brown is. I just think that's false. You can compare the role.
30:31Comparing the player, I think is a little dangerous.
30:33I do. I don't think there's a worker in this league.
30:36I don't think there's a worker in this league to the level of Amon Ross St.
30:41Brown. Yeah. Now let's be coming out of college.
30:43Amon Ross St. Brown was not even seen on the same stratosphere.
30:47No, he was not. Except on, no, but on this show.
30:50Well, if you go back a couple of years ago and watch the millions of mocks that Andrew Erickson and I did on Amon Ross St.
30:57Brown's rookie season, every single one of them I took Amon Ross towards the end of those drafts.
31:02Second to last pick, last pick, whatever it was, because I believe in the worker he was.
31:06And I don't know if there's anybody in the NFL that is the worker that Amon Ross St.
31:11Brown is. That's what makes him so special. I'm not saying Luther Burton's not a good talent, but everybody in the NFL is a good talent.
31:18That's why they're in the NFL. It's that worker bee mentality that you have that kind of separates you at that level.
31:24And I'm just not sure Luther Burton is that guy.
31:27We'll see. We'll see. But that wasn't the MO coming out of college for him either.
31:31Jake, talk to me about Ja'Cory Krosky merit, because this is another one too, a very divisive piece.
31:36A lot of people didn't think that the Washington commanders addressed the backfield the way maybe some people anticipated that they would.
31:42So what does that mean for JCM going into 2026?
31:45Yeah, I'm going to compare this to something we talked about last year, and that was Javante Williams with the Cowboys.
31:51And we're like, what is the team telling you?
31:53I'm telling you the team feels like they have an answer.
31:56They drafted Catron Allen in the sixth round, which is fine.
31:59You know, like maybe that breaks right for him.
32:02And he ends up being the guy. I'm not saying there's a non-zero chance that that's happening, but you look at those backfields right now.
32:09Now, let's go back to Krosky Merritt last year.
32:11Remember how nuts everybody was going as soon as Brian Robinson.
32:14Not everybody. Not everybody. But there was warranted excitement for the talent.
32:17And one of the things, so Ben Standig pointed this out when it happened.
32:21And he said, I want to tell everybody to be patient.
32:24Krosky Merritt played one game in two years. Like he even said, the commanders like the talent, but they're going to play
32:30the slow game because he's played one game in two years.
32:33Like he can't just go out there and start getting 20 touches per game.
32:37It was even worse than that. And like we didn't really get much of him throughout the season.
32:42There was little flashes here and there. But the excitement here is really look at this backfield.
32:47We know what Rashad White is. He's very inefficient.
32:49Maybe some usage in the passing game with this backfield.
32:52Katron Allen, as we mentioned before, he was thought of as a timeshare piece coming out of this draft.
32:57Everybody bemoaned how awful this draft class was for running backs after Jeremiah Love.
33:01And the McNichols. We know McNichols at this point.
33:03Jerome Ford was signed early in free agency. Might not even make the roster at this point.
33:08All that being said is like, this could be a complete cluster.
33:11You know what? And we don't want to piece anywhere of this backfield because there's not a startable piece.
33:17But if the talent breaks right and Krosky Merrick gets 55% of the share as the lead.
33:21And yes, that's only that's not the biggest share.
33:24And it's not something we want truly in fantasy.
33:26But it could be an RB2 on an offense that hopefully we've heard already a lot of good things about Blau taking
33:32over and that, hey, he knows how to do a little bit more than one thing, one thing, one thing, one thing.
33:38Heck, why we have a new offensive coordinator for this team.
33:41It's just the excitement that if he gets those kind of touches where it's 220, 230, and finally that talent starts to
33:47flash with a healthy Jaden Daniels, we could get an RB2 out of this.
33:51And that's why I just think he's worth the cost right now because nobody wants any part of this backfield.
33:57I don't want any part of this backfield. Andrew, do you?
34:00I'm just curious because I also look at the ADP and the ECR and I look at guys like Kenneth Gainwell that
34:06I do want this year based on the Bucky Irving situation that I think are kind of a better return on my investment.
34:12I want Rashad White. So you, Joe, you can fade the backfield.
34:15That's what I do. Jay, you can have Ja'Kory Krosky married.
34:18I like Rashad White. I think that he was a little bit better last year in terms of his efficiency.
34:24Now, I get that he's not like this explosive outside runner.
34:27Like, that's not his role. But I don't think that they brought him in to do that.
34:31I think that's why they have Ja'Kory Krosky married to play that role.
34:35But when I look at what scores fantasy points, it's guys that average at least 40 catches per year.
34:40Rashad White has four straight seasons of at least 40 catches.
34:43We don't love the commanders outside of Terry McLaurin, who is commanding targets.
34:47I think it could be Chikonka. I think it could be Antonio Williams.
34:50What if it's just Rashad White who's catching passes out of the backfield?
34:54So I like that. He has chemistry with Jaden Daniels, former college teammate.
34:57Rashad White has an RB7 overall finish in his career.
35:00He's been at RB24 in seven games last year when Bucky Irving was missing time.
35:04And he's never finished worse than RB38 in his entire NFL career.
35:08So he's going outside the top 30 running backs.
35:10So for me, it's buying a dip on a proven player in Rashad White who has proven that he can play and
35:16score fantasy points versus some of these day three picks.
35:19You could take a flyer at both. They're back to back in ADP.
35:22They're both going as RB4s. And I think that's your biggest point right there.
35:26Andrew, even though we disagree, they're both worth the cost.
35:29Only Joe's wrong, basically. No, no, no. I mean, Kent Gamel is right there with them.
35:33These are RB4 flyers that could bring back RB2 price, depending on what happens, whether you agree with you, whether you agree with me, or agree with Joe.
35:41We're all on three different players. The point being, there are RB4s with RB2 upside if things break right.
35:46Right now, all of them are worth their cost.
35:49For the record, I did like Rashad White as well.
35:51But now that Andrew was mean to me, I don't like him anymore.
35:55You said Faye the commander's backfield. Yes, because I think Rashad White, you can get even cheaper.
36:00Obviously, he's going after JCM from what I've seen so far.
36:03He goes after Kenneth Gamel. I mean, he's like the cheapest guy.
36:06And he's the only one with a fantasy RB1 finish.
36:09He's 38. Kenneth Gamel's 37. Merritt's 38. White's 39.
36:11And ECR or ADP? Oh, interesting. And ECR. ECR and ADP.
36:14In ADP, I think there's a little bit more of a gap.
36:17But Andrew, there already is somebody who has the explosive, quote unquote, role in that offense for running the football.
36:23His name is Jayden Daniels. That's the guy who has that role already.
36:26I was going to laugh if you said McNichols.
36:29And also, so, and also. Yeah, Jeremy McNichols is nothing.
36:32Yeah, Jeremy McNichols. And to also make another point, just because I don't, because I can see the comments already coming out after me.
36:38There is a chance that Rashad White doesn't catch as many passes because Jayden Daniels is a mobile quarterback.
36:43But if they keep him in the pocket a little bit more, try to keep him more upright, which I don't think
36:49that's going to be the case in Miami with Malik Willis.
36:52I think Malik Willis is going to have to run.
36:55Daniels runs less. You could see White being more of a check down option.
36:59It's going to end up being old school 49ers behind McCaffrey.
37:02It's always the one that nobody picked. So it's going to be Keitron Allen.
37:06Probably. Which, again, I'm not against that in the best ball world either.
37:09I can tell you that much. All right. Erickson, talk to me about another running back, Cam Scadaboo.
37:14You know I love me some Cam Scadaboo. I'm a big fan.
37:18He's fun. He's a big, dumb animal. I can't get enough of him.
37:21But he is coming off a pretty serious injury.
37:24And it is a different offense here coming into the season, on top of which Tyron Tracy is still around.
37:29So how do you factor in the Jackson Dart rushing ability, Tyron Tracy's role, and what that does to the risk, potentially, of an investment in Cam Scadaboo?
37:37Well, for starters, running backs coming off of fibula fractures, the track record has not been good of recent.
37:42So fantasy points, Ryan Heath has pointed out with some of these running backs coming off of these fibula fractures.
37:47Minus 6.7 fantasy points per game the following year after coming back from the injury.
37:52Quinshot Judkins is also facing this type of return.
37:54Most recently, we also saw Tony Pollard come back from this injury.
37:57And we all kind of projected, he'll be okay.
38:00And he ended up being one of his most inefficient seasons.
38:03So that's kind of like the most recent one of where it really was a bad investment to draft Tony Pollard that season coming off the fibula injury.
38:10So just that alone, if you just want to fade Scadaboo based on this injury, it makes a lot of sense because
38:16it has proven to be a worthwhile strategy to not draft these particular players.
38:20Tryron Tracy. He's not a slouch. I don't think he's a total zero over a thousand yards all purpose the last two seasons.
38:27So I think that there's a chance that he has a role in this backfield.
38:31It's not necessarily just the Scadaboo. Hey, give him as many carries and touches as humanly possible because we saw him again.
38:37The way that he plays, plays as a bulldozer.
38:39It invites a lot of contact and a lot of injury risk when it comes to a player like him.
38:45So that's why I get concerned with Scadaboo is yes.
38:47What if he can't withstand coming off of the injury?
38:50What if Tracy is a little bit more involved in a new offense?
38:54Now, the upside is, well, he was one of the better.
38:57He was probably the best rookie running back last year before he got hurt.
39:01Like he was RB 10 points per game. He only played nine games.
39:04He was well on his way to a fantasy RB one season.
39:07So if he just again, he's also a younger player.
39:10So that is one thing that kind of works in his favor versus some of these other running backs coming off these fibula injuries.
39:17He is a lot younger. He's already doing backflips, as we've seen.
39:20So clearly he must be healthy. So there is a path where this dude is just an absolute monster yet again.
39:26The price is palatable in this back end RB two range.
39:29But there is a lot of risk with this giant's offense that without Malik neighbors is how good is this offense even going to be necessarily as well?
39:36So did you did you say six point seven fancy points per game?
39:40I just want to make that clear because I was.
39:43Yes. Wow. That's a huge number. Yeah, it is a huge number.
39:46Jake, does that give you pause when you hear that kind of number?
39:50Or because Cam Scadaboo is young and it happened early in the season, you're maybe less concerned about it?
39:55It gives me pause if like so this seems to be the running theme now is that he's healthy.
40:00He looks healthy. He looks healthy. He's look healthy.
40:02And then by the time we get to August, all of a sudden he's being drafted as a top 15 running back.
40:08Right now I'm with Andrew on this 100%. I have him as a back end RB two.
40:13I'm right behind Judkins, right with Jadarian Price and DeAndre Swift.
40:16I think that's where he deserves to be. And I say, I think that's where he deserves to be all the way
40:22up to the start of the season. I think you have to factor in the people in front of him.
40:28Javante Williams, Kyron Williams, Brees Hull. I'd even take David Montgomery with the Texans.
40:31I don't know why people don't love David Montgomery more.
40:34But all that being said is there's fewer questions with all those people.
40:38And that's the biggest thing. Like I said, the running theme seems to be is that don't let the helium, you know, blow these people up too far.
40:45All right, Jake Sealy. Let's talk about the Madden cover boy, Caleb Williams for a moment here, too.
40:50Another thing, too, when you start to look at guys who are, you know, I think on that fringe, like quarterback 10
40:56kind of range there, there's reason to believe. As you've said before in this program, we've heard that he could be a
41:02guy that, you know, really explodes this year. And some other people would rather just not even take that investment because they
41:08don't see that big of a separator between him and guys like Brock Purdy or guys like Jared Goff at the end
41:14of the day who just keep putting up stats every single season.
41:18So talk to me about Caleb Williams, year two with Ben Johnson and what that reward might be.
41:23And the risk obviously being he doesn't separate from that pack at the end of QB one.
41:27Yeah. Well, the reward is you just said Jared Goff.
41:30If he throws forty five hundred yards and 30 plus touchdowns with him running for three to four hundred and three to
41:36four on the ground like he does. We're talking about old school Dak Prescott and he's a top three quarterback.
41:42Let's make that clear. Do I think that's going to happen?
41:45I still think that's a little lofty. I think this team isn't really like even with Ben Johnson.
41:49I don't think they're built in the Jared Goff way where they want him to necessarily even throw forty five hundred and thirty five touchdowns.
41:56Would they throw that away if they could? Absolutely not.
41:59I'm just saying, like, I think there's probably more expectation for he's finally the first Bears quarterback to throw over four thousand yards.
42:05He gets the 30 touchdowns, a more efficient season because we've seen flashes of his upside.
42:10He is still one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL as with the interceptions.
42:14But at the same time, sometimes that's to his detriment.
42:17Sometimes we want to take some of those shots and get that throw out there and just like, you know what?
42:22And I'm not saying throw an interception, but take some of your ability and make some of those tougher throws that other
42:28quarterbacks like even golf have made to this point.
42:31So forty two hundred yards and thirty thirty two touchdowns with that rushing and what would be a breakout season, even though
42:37it's not worlds above what he's already done, would put him in the potential top five, six conversation.
42:42And that's why I think right now where he's at, he's absolutely worth the cost.
42:46If you don't get that tier one, tier two quarterback, Caleb Williams is somebody I'm looking after because that's the other thing.
42:52To use one of my catchphrases, Joe and my holla by the cake, not the icing.
42:56The icing is this Loveland. We've talked all three of them.
42:59Loveland or doing a burden? Is it going to be Loveland?
43:02Is it going to be a burden? Is it even going to be a healthy?
43:06Like, who's going to be the best? Who's going to like buy the cake?
43:10Who's the cake? Caleb Williams. He's throwing to those three.
43:13And that's your answer right there. If all three or even two are going to benefit, Caleb Williams is going to be the one to do it.
43:20I like cake and icing. I just want to put that out there.
43:24I like cake with extra icing. I'm going to make that clear.
43:27Are you one of those guys that you know, there's a weird kids that would just eat the icing first?
43:33No, no, no, no. Nicole's daughter does that. No, my youngest.
43:36No, but I am a can and a half icing on my cake and not just one can.
43:41All right. So heavy icing for Jake Seely's cake.
43:43There you go. Erickson, where are you at with Caleb Williams?
43:46Especially when you get to the super flex world too, because that's when you really got to make that decision of is
43:52Caleb Williams a guy that you would take early in the second round?
43:56You know, do you want to do that when there's still talent on the board that, you know, some guys like Amon Ross, St.
44:02Brown are still out there? Is that is it time to pivot to one of those kind of talents as opposed to a Caleb?
44:09Right. Because that's that's what you're thinking about. Like ADP first round, you're going to have all those top six quarterbacks and
44:15you're going to have all those top five position players.
44:18And then you start to look at Amon Ross, Justin Jefferson or Caleb Williams.
44:21I think that's a conversation. I think it does depend on what the format is.
44:26Full PPR. It's more of a conversation that you can have these volume wide receivers.
44:30Whereas half PPR, it's hard for those positional players to catch up to quarterbacks that score so many points.
44:35Again, at the end of the day, it's still about.
44:38I'll give you this show toss up, Andrew. This show specifically.
44:41Half point PPR. Super flex. A-chan or Caleb Williams?
44:43Caleb Williams. Easy. Easy. Well, I wasn't even a thought.
44:46I would agree with that. And half PPR. Yeah, I'd still go Caleb because I feel like he's pretty safe.
44:51And then you're getting a lot of this upside baked in.
44:54Joe, I can't believe you're asking me about Caleb Williams when we had a bold prediction show where I said he finishes as a QB1 overall.
45:01So clearly I am buying the upside case when it comes to Caleb Williams.
45:05I didn't put it in that context, though, of super flex, too, where it's like you really got to understand where your roster build is in that term.
45:13But, yeah. I mean, I agree. But if you had to put a percentage chance on that happening, Andrew, I know it's
45:19a bold prediction, but like percentage chance on him finishing as QB1.
45:22He's going to say 97%. Well, when it comes down to you just have to – Josh Allen has to have some type of fall off, right?
45:30That's like the person. Because last year Drake May was right behind Josh Allen in terms of total fantasy points scored.
45:35So if Caleb Williams can do what Drake May did last year, I don't think that's outlandish.
45:40I still think this Bears defense isn't – I mean, it's 3.2 points per game.
45:44I mean, that's the gap he has to make up.
45:47Right, but if Josh Allen – Him and Josh Allen.
45:50Yeah, if Josh Allen has to fall off. Like that's like most – for him to be QB1 overall.
45:55But if it's QB2, top five quarterback, I think that – I don't want to say he's locked for top five.
46:01But last year, what? He was QB7 in points per game.
46:0419.1. He heard it right here. He has a lock to be top five.
46:07Get all the Bears. Let's do it. YouTube. Hey, I said he was going to QB1 overall before he was on Madden too, so.
46:14You did say – That's actually funny. Like I put the name in the sheet before he was on the cover of Madden.
46:20I have to make that clear too. I wasn't expecting – no, no, no.
46:24I just wasn't expecting that. Like this wasn't like let's talk Caleb Williams because he's jumping over rose bushes or whatever he's doing.
46:30Like that's okay. Before we get to the guys with some risk based upon situations maybe in or out of their control,
46:36let's talk about some of the tools too. Draft Assistant is available for you.
46:40If you're on the clock right now in a Dynasty startup or rookie draft, now is the time.
46:45Draft Assistant. Go to fantasybros.com slash assistant. Sync your leagues for free.
46:48Download the Fantasy Bros app if that's easier. And use the Draft Assistant.
46:52And don't forget, you can get a three-day free trial of the premium version right now at fantasypros.com slash dynasty26.
46:58Don't forget, dynasty26. Fantasypros.com slash dynasty26. Three-day free trial.
47:00Perfect timing. You have your draft coming up on a Saturday.
47:03Boom. Two days before. That's what you do. And use all the tools.
47:07Don't be a tool. Also, speaking of tools, my favorite two tools here, Andrew Erickson, Tom Strachan.
47:11They're back. They're back with the best ball show, baby.
47:14Be on Twitch, twitch.tv slash fantasypros. That's supposed to be Monday, June 8th, 2 p.m.
47:18Eastern. Go check it out. We're doing a mock draft live there.
47:21FFPC best ball. Erickson, you excited for that show coming up on Monday?
47:25Oh, super excited. I just did a stream best ball with Tom on his show, the Fantasy Sanctuary, yesterday.
47:30And, of course, we drafted Drake May in the first round and got the stack, A.J.
47:34Brown, in round four. Speaking of A.J. Brown, look at this.
47:37Go right to it. Let's talk about A.J. Brown.
47:40Because now he has landed in New England. Now I think you'll see some people like myself moving him up one or two spots here and there.
47:47And, look, we're going to get real excited about this the more we start to see these two work together.
47:53Because I think Drake May is the truth. I think he is legitimate.
47:56I know the playoffs didn't go great. I think there were some issues there between health and between the offensive line.
48:02It did not help him. But there's no doubt having A.J.
48:05Brown is by far the best talent that he's been around in his young career.
48:09So talk to me about the swing, potentially, of A.J.
48:12Brown. Do we swing him up too high a little bit?
48:15Is it going to get too lofty? Or should we be looking for a guy that is going to give you 1,400
48:21yards and 10 touchdowns this year with the Patriots?
48:23That's what I think is going to happen with A.J.
48:26Brown. I think that his ceiling is league winner, top five, wide receiver.
48:30I don't even think it's outlandish to think that he could finish as the wide receiver one overall with Drake May.
48:36A.J. Brown is not washed in any way, shape, or form, in my opinion.
48:39It's just last year with the Eagles, they didn't always use him as the focal point of the offense.
48:45But when they did, after he came back from missing a game because of the hamstring injury, weeks 11 through 16, 32%
48:51target share, 88 receiving yards per game, nearly three yards per route run, 19.8 fantasy points per game in full PPR.
48:56Right near that 20 mark, which is elite fantasy wide receiver production.
49:00So fourth best graded receiver versus band coverage. And he just fits exactly what the Patriots need.
49:04They need someone that can beat man coverage. They need someone that can make more plays in the red zone and be explosive down the field.
49:11Check, check, check. So as long as this degenerate knee thing isn't holding A.J.
49:15Brown back, I think that he could be a target hog in this offense if Josh McDaniels decides to give him a
49:21Devontae Adams level workload like we saw with him in the Raiders.
49:25Or even going back to Brandon Marshall with the Denver Broncos as a true alpha wide receiver.
49:29Let's feature this guy as our focal point at all facets of the field.
49:33And you could see A.J. Brown being a league winner because of it.
49:37Where are you at with A.J. Brown since the landing spot, Jake?
49:40I don't think you and I actually talked about this yet.
49:43No. You could actually go to the athletic and see the article.
49:46This is where I'm pulling numbers. Are you ready for some rankings?
49:49Some rankings of how I feel about him? Do I have a choice?
49:53No. Of course you don't. Drake May, since starting his first game for the Patriots.
49:57This is where he ranks in every single one of these.
50:00EPA per drop back of 20. This is all 20 plus yards downfield.
50:04Everything I'm about to say is for Drake May and A.J.
50:07Brown, 20 plus yards downfield air yards. EPA per drop back for Drake May, second.
50:11Touchdown per attempt, second. Completion percentage, fourth. Touchdown per interception, second.
50:14Just last year, second, fourth, third, and second. A.J.
50:16Brown on the Eagles. EPA per target, tenth. Reception percentage, ninth.
50:19Touchdown per target, tenth. Top four in every category, top ten in every category.
50:23You tell me these two aren't meant to play together?
50:26Absolutely. I am moving A.J. Brown up. The only issue would be health.
50:29Like this is the perfect match between a quarterback and offense style.
50:33Skill set. Yeah, that's what I like about it.
50:35And let's make this clear. You know this, Joe.
50:38That's what Drake May throw into a bunch of jabronis at wide receiver the past two years.
50:42It's like Kyle Williams. Even if it was Romeo Dobbs only, that's still better than they had for the past two years.
50:48But it wasn't. It wasn't even Romeo Dobbs. That's what I'm saying.
50:52It wasn't even. It was Matt Collins. I mean, you know.
50:55And look, credit to Drake May to get what he got out of those guys on his way to almost winning MVP.
51:01I don't think that's talked about enough. Like what?
51:03That he got what he got out of it.
51:06He's a talent elevator. There's the kinds that make everybody around you better.
51:09And there's the kinds that need help around them to elevate their game.
51:13Matt Jones. That's the difference between Matt Jones. That's the difference between Drake May and Matt Jones.
51:17Matt Jones. Right there. One of them is a talent elevator.
51:20One of them is you put good talent around me and this offense can be bad.
51:25Right. And it showed because when Matt Jones took over for the 49ers, he could run that system.
51:30And when he was on the Patriots with the same bad wide receivers, he was bad.
51:34Yes. The ones that Drake May used. Absolutely. Let's talk about Quinch on Judkins.
51:38Obviously some flashes last year. This was a player I was out on last year because of some of the legal issues.
51:44I did not think he was going to be back soon enough.
51:47And then he was, and then he was really good.
51:50And then he was hurt. And then it was kind of a roller coaster.
51:54So let's talk about year two for Quinch on Judkins, what it looks like.
51:58And obviously it's a little, you know, it's, it's relatively cheap to buy in, but how risk averse are you to Quinch on Judkins shares this year?
52:05I'm not. And the fact that where it's worth buying in, I just mentioned earlier, I have Judkins one spot in front
52:11of Scadaboo and that's at RB 20. I think that's the range that is worth taking because the risk with Judkins is
52:17not the fact that he can't be using the passing game because he can be Dylan Sampson will be a factor.
52:23Maybe it's a 60, 40 split, but I say 60, 40, not 55, 45, because everybody from Zach Jackson who covers the
52:29Browns for the athletic and everybody watching this team is everything's being said is that Judkins can be a bell cow.
52:35Will they ask him to be? Probably not. That's not smart.
52:38I mean, this team isn't going to win this year.
52:40So like, and I say being in the playoffs or anything like that.
52:44So why are you going to run your young running back into the ground when you have Samson and other options behind him?
52:50But a 60% of that workload share, the question comes down to something we alluded to before and I alluded to actually
52:56just straight up said the Tagliere thing, a bottom, a bottom five offense Judkins isn't going to be an RB one, but
53:02at RB 2021 as somebody that like, if you go wide receiver heavy, I'm absolutely buying into Judkins for that price because they're still upside there.
53:09If he does go the bell cow route, if Samson gets hurt or just underperforms as he did last year, like, cause
53:15all the running backs, including Judkins weren't very efficient in this offense for deserved reason.
53:19It's this offense, but the offensive line is good enough that we can get some production out of them.
53:25As long as this offense clicks up a little bit, if he gets to 80 touches, he'll probably in the top 15 conversation, even on this poor offense.
53:32So that's why I'm excited for Judkins at this point.
53:35I say at this point, when we hit this point again, if he starts going drafted as the RB 15, 16, now
53:41you kind of lost all that potential upside. Fair enough.
53:44Quinch on for you, Erickson. Where are you at with him?
53:47So I have him behind, uh, Cam Scadaboo. So I'm interested in Jake, cause Jake, you said Judkins is ahead of Scadaboo for you.
53:53Yeah. One spot. One spot. Why, why, why is that?
53:56I guess for me, I look at it as Scadaboo showed a higher ceiling last year.
54:01He's way more involved in the passing game. I'm way more confident in Jackson Dart versus insert Brown's quarterback here.
54:06So why, why, why, why? So I'm just, I'm just curious again, you have them back to back.
54:11So like, it's not like, Oh, I'm like no matter what.
54:14And maybe that's how you feel. It's really more of a coin flip.
54:18But as a close fan of the giants, are you just, Hey, I got to phase my team.
54:22No, no, no. Well, like this clear, you like every kiss.
54:25Joe knows this. I am a bemoaned previous fan of the giants.
54:29Who's getting somewhat pulled, sucked back in like everything, you know, like the horrible, the changes being made, starting to make smart decisions again.
54:35They're going to suck me back in because you can't ever completely break up with your first love.
54:40But that being said, no, it comes down to, I believe Judkins workload over Scadaboos.
54:44And that's really what it comes down to. Like, I believe everything being equitable.
54:48Scadaboo should be 55, 60, maybe even 65%. Like Tracy's a fine player.
54:52Like, I think part of the expectations of fantasy for Tracy was that everybody was surprised by him and that skewed perception of his true talent.
54:59Scadaboo is clearly the better talent. We sat here on these shows talking about last year, that Scadaboo is going to be
55:05the one in the giants backfield because he's the better talent.
55:08And Tracy has fumble issues, which I mean, Derek Henry fumbled last year and he would take him out of games for God's sakes.
55:14No, but this is also, I go back to Greg Roman.
55:17Man, this is the same coordinator who would yank the better running back off the field to go to Gus Edwards again.
55:24And like, so I'm just, that's the, I just have some like cautionary hesitancy.
55:27Todd Monkett also took Derek Henry off the field, put Justice Hill on the game.
55:31Yeah. That's also true. Or maybe we're all wrong and just, it's a Harbaugh decision.
55:36Like, did you ever stop and think about that?
55:38That's the thing. He's not calling the offensive plays.
55:40That's what I'm saying. And Harbaugh is there. Tyrone Tracy's, that's the point I was making is that, well, Harbaugh thinks the guy that makes that decision.
55:48I don't think Derek Henry comes out of a game and John Harbaugh is not the guy in charge of that decision.
55:54I don't think an offensive coordinator makes that call.
55:56I think that's a head coach call. I'm sorry.
55:59Either way. You're talking about the stars. Very slim.
56:01Very slim. Like, I think there's a higher likelihood for the Judkins share to be first a baseline and that like 240, 250, it's a slim.
56:08Scadaboo could be 220, 230. But I also think there's a chance that Judkins can get to 280 and that we still
56:14see Scadaboo kind of top out at like a 260.
56:17Partly because Scadaboo's insane and they probably want to keep him healthy because he's going to run through.
56:22Hey, look, there's 17 offensive or 17 defenders in front of me.
56:25I'm going to run through them instead of the wide open field they have to the right.
56:30Yes, but it's fun to watch. Rushy Rice Erickson.
56:33That's a player. Again, I feel like every day we're waiting for another piece of news to drop with this guy.
56:38Something else stupid. Therefore, I'm out on Rushy Rice this year.
56:41Like it would have to fall to a tremendous degree for me to be really interested.
56:46And I just don't think it's going to get there because I think everybody just has the blinders on right now for Rushy Rice.
56:52As you guys were alluding to earlier, sunshine and roses and rainbows this time of year.
56:57Everything's positive. I mean, how much more negative do we need on a guy?
57:00Right now. Well, we did get one kind of positive news from him recently that he's actually been able to leave his
57:06jail cell to get treatment on his knee. That's nice.
57:09So that technically is positive news. So he is actually technically able to rehab his knee.
57:14That being said, you have to include Rushy Rice.
57:16I didn't know where to put him on this show sheet, but I was like, he has to be on here when it comes to high risk.
57:23Because he's a player that we could look up.
57:26He's suspended again for three to six games. We don't know if he's even going to play.
57:31Maybe the chiefs decide, you know what, dude? Pound sand.
57:33Like, we're sick of this stuff. We are not going to make you the focal point of the offense.
57:38But then the other side of the coin is he was a top five fantasy wide receiver last year.
57:44And he's going nowhere near the top five in drafts because of all of this off the field nonsense that he continues to put himself in.
57:51So that's really why it's high risk, high reward.
57:53Depending on where the price is with him, round five, Rushy Rice, when you kind of have a lot of your starters already set up to go.
58:01I mean, he was a good draft pick last year because of what he did when he came back from his suspension,
58:07producing at a top five fantasy level. So the chiefs need wide receivers, Rushy Rice is available and healthy and not suspended.
58:13He's going to be the number one wide receiver and fringe top 10 production, I think, is very much in his range of outcomes.
58:19And right now he's not going in the top 10.
58:22No, but you're also not factoring into the possibility that first month of the season, we don't see Patrick Mahomes.
58:28And I do think that's a possibility with the way the schedule works out.
58:31I think he's going to be. I mean, I don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes.
58:36I am not betting against him. I am thinking about the organization's long-term health and the way that organization is situated in that division this year.
58:43And realistically speaking, it's a little tricky. Let's make sure Patrick Mahomes is good for December and not worry so much about September.
58:49That to me is the most important thing. We got one more guy to talk about because we're running out of time here.
58:55And he was mentioned earlier. So let's talk about Kenneth Gainwell because the Bucky Irving news certainly has elevated a lot of people's minds towards Kenneth Gainwell.
59:03The group think is very strong on this one.
59:05Where are we at here where he becomes a risk?
59:08Where does he have to push in terms of, well, I'm out now on Kenneth Gainwell because of his ADP?
59:14I think anywhere higher than where I have him.
59:16And that's one spot in front of Irving as a fringe RB2.
59:19Mostly because there was already concern before the Irving situation.
59:22And I don't know if the Buccaneers just want to do this to us and like, hey, we're going to go on to the next guy.
59:29We're going to go on to the next guy.
59:32We're going to. What do we know about Zach Robbins and three wide stretch offense?
59:36A lot of that. By the way, who's one of the best running backs in zone rushing in the NFL?
59:41Kenneth Gainwell. Kenneth Gainwell is a masterful fit for this offense.
59:44That was already a concern to be a 50-50 split because of that.
59:48Bucky Irving has some of that ability, but it's weird because he kind of has been a better power runner than a stretch runner.
59:54So all that being said, there was already that risk.
59:57And now we're talking about this Irving injury that continues to linger initially.
60:01And I say this, I admittedly was on a show with Pat a month or two ago where like the Bucky Irving
60:07was already kind of getting too heavy hate because they were already pushing him down to the late teens.
60:12And he still was going to be the lead, in my opinion, at that point.
60:16But that was before we got a lot of this injury news.
60:19That's kind of lingering. This injury news lingering similar to Malik Neighbors makes me say, you know what?
60:24If I'm drafting as of today, I'm going to take Gainwell as a high-end RB3 with the potential for top 20 because
60:30even if Irving is close to 100% by week one, the fitness offense could actually make Gainwell the answer this year.
60:36And not as a top 15 running back like Irving was, but as the one that we actually won.
60:41All right, everybody. There you go. Those are the risky players.
60:44How we feel about them. How do you feel about them?
60:47Who is the one player that you're willing to risk it all for?
60:51Risk it all. Risk it all. All right. So drop your comments below on the YouTube channel.
60:55Like this video on the way out and subscribe.
60:58Ring the bell. You know all that stuff. Great stuff as always from the boys.
61:02We got more stuff coming at you here all summer long.
61:05Getting you ready for those fantasy football drafts. That'll do it for us.
61:09But the story of the game goes on. For Andrew Erickson and Jake Seeley of The Athletic, I'm Joey P.
61:14We'll see you next time, kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
61:18If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
61:26Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros.
61:28And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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61:34You think the Jonas Brothers are satisfied? Nope. It's podcast time.
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61:41Hey Jonas is available now and their first guest is a big one, Paul Rudd.
61:45You know, Steve Carell is a great singer. Can you tell you not to audition for The Office or something?
61:51I told him. Whoa. We were filming Anchorman. Clearly I was the idiot.
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