0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. All right, and welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:06Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us as our bye weeks.
0:10Another round of injuries and yes, another week of Deshaun Watson and Tanner McKee as starting quarterbacks making start-sit decisions more tough than ever.
0:18But we've got you covered right here on this primer episode of the program featuring our favorite must-start players.
0:24I'm your host Seth Wilcock joined by a man who I know will have all eyes on Houston when J.J.
0:30McCarthy makes his starting debut. With the New York Giants.
0:33He's the never elusive but always intrusive Derek Brown, D-Bro, how are the vibes coming out of your primer writing cave for the week?
0:41You are so elite with these intros on a weekly basis my dude like this is like...
0:46Because you're you're never elusive you're always around and but you're yet always intrusive even when I'm not thinking of fantasy some
0:53that Derek Brown thought comes into my head. You see Darnell Washington scored a touchdown last week and you're like, I hate this on so many levels.
1:02Yes, especially because it was on my dad's roster to beat me and send my family league team to 0-6.
1:08All time embarrassed. You can't do this for a living and be 0-6 in your family league.
1:14It does not go well. The techs are relentless.
1:17Shout out to Pops. That's all I gotta say, man.
1:20Cut it. Put it out of the social. Shout out to Pops.
1:24Darnell Washington taking Big Seth down for the L.
1:27I love it, dude. You gotta love it, man.
1:29Also love what we got on deck for today's program.
1:33We've got must starts for each of the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions.
1:38And before we get to that, just want to quickly thank everyone for tuning in either right here on the famous pros YouTube channel or the audio feed.
1:47We're closing in right now on 300,000 subscribers and we can only get there with your help.
1:53So please give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and make sure you subscribe to the
2:00channel if you're new and Derek starting at the quarterback position.
2:03You're taking us to a place where I grew up watching on Rugrats in Paris, but is now hosting its very first NFL game.
2:11Yes, sir. We're going to discuss one Aaron Rodgers QB 13 and ECR did he's been I've called him Jameis Rogers.
2:17I've called him Aaron Winston. He's been just yellowing it up, man.
2:21Like you've got 22 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games.
2:26I've got him as a top 12 quarterback for the week.
2:30ECR QB 13. The Saints defense has just been god awful, man.
2:33So I think Aaron gets it done. I think he gets two passing touchdowns.
2:38Probably eclipses 270 and above through the air in this game.
2:41New Orleans has given up the seventh most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks fourth highest passing success rate.
2:47It's a good coverage matchup. We're not on this program.
2:51We're not going back to the Darnell Washington. Well, this week I wrote it up in the primary.
2:56Go read it there. You can if you need tight end help.
3:00I think DK Metcalf has a massive game. We're not discussing him on this episode, but I think Rogers can get it done, man.
3:08All everything flows back to Rogers the quarterback position.
3:11It is a wonderful matchup, and I think he's a very strong QB one for the week.
3:16Maybe it's because he's just so comfortable in a Mike McCarthy system, but this is by far the best Aaron Rogers we've seen outside of Green Bay, right?
3:25I mean, not even close with how good he's dealing right now.
3:29Definitely better than the Jets version of him, but yeah.
3:32And even last year, right? I mean, part of that, you know, that's kind of what you get with Arthur Smith, right?
3:39You're going to have a lot of Bozo plays, but Aaron has full control of this offense right now.
3:45And whether it's Roman Wilson, whether it's Jeremy Bernard, whether Michael Pittman Jr.
3:49is the wide receiver too, we know it's Bernard this week.
3:53He's making it happen and making it happen in spades right now.
3:57Derek, let's play a quick game. More quarterback one finishes this year.
4:01Aaron Rogers or CJ Stroud? Oh, Aaron Rogers. And CJ Stroud's the new hotness that everyone's talking about this week.
4:07Yeah, CJ Stroud has been a QB one in each of his last three starts.
4:12Want to say top five and two of those?
4:15Twice. Twice. Yeah, Stroud's been twice. Twice, yes. QB 13 in the other game, right?
4:20Yes, and Dak Prescott or Aaron Rogers. Oh, Aaron Rodgers.
4:23Dak Prescott's been god awful. And yeah, we want to even get into a Cowboys conversation, but Shoddy, Brian, hey man, we need talk, brother.
4:31What the hell are you doing down there? No motion, no play action.
4:35What are we doing here, man? Reverse the course.
4:38But anyway, convo for a different day. One more.
4:41This is kind of a Seth stat here. Patrick Mahomes.
4:44He did have a bye week. Aaron Rogers. Yeah, Aaron Rogers.
4:47Aaron Rogers has three QB one finishes. Over the last few weeks.
4:51Not a QB one. Yep. So there you have it, Aaron Rogers.
4:55Derek, you're also taking us out to the desert where we'll see hopefully the Denver Broncos offense try to get back on track.
5:02Well, I don't know if the offense gets back on track.
5:06But dude, this shocked me when I pulled this up.
5:09Speaking of quiet weekly finishes, were you aware that RJ Harvey, RB 27 and ECR has three top 24 running back finishes for the season already?
5:17RB 24. I was not until I prepared for this show.
5:21RB 12, RB 13. I was not until I got to the primer and I was like, what?
5:27How did I miss this? Only one finish outside of the top 36 as well.
5:31Yes. He's been awesome. Quietly awesome. And the big stat that I want everybody to understand with RJ Harvey in this game,
5:38and it's a fantastic matchup for Jalen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Evan Ingram.
5:42All these guys have fantastic matchups. The thing about RJ Harvey that I go back to is we all know where the bread is buttered.
5:50It's in the passing game for RJ Harvey. He's got a 15.8% target share, 2.3 yards per route run, almost an 11%
5:57first reach here, which is insane for a freaking running back.
6:01The thing about RJ Harvey is the coverage structure for the Arizona Cardinals and why I think he's going to get just peppered with targets in this game.
6:10Arizona runs too high at the highest rate in the entire freaking NFL, Seth.
6:1469.8%. The reason that this is big for RJ Harvey, do you know who leads the entire freaking team in target per route run rate at 41%?
6:23Seth, RJ. 41%. Wow. 41% target per route run rate.
6:26That is elite. That is insane. That is wide receiver one alpha level usage when he is on the field.
6:32So versus Arizona, again, pair this with the fact that the Cardinals have given up the 11th most yards per target to opposing running backs.
6:40And RJ Harvey bet the over for the receptions, bet the over for the receiving yards.
6:46Start him in PPR leagues as a top 24 running back this week.
6:50ECR 27. He is inside of my top 24 running backs for the week, Seth.
6:55Yeah. And it feels like he has to be Bo Nix's best friend right now.
6:59I am surprised that it's that high of a target per route run share.
7:04But at the same time, like when you look at what Bo Nix is doing right now, it's not right.
7:10I mean, we've heard, you know, people on a mic call what he's doing.
7:15Disrespectful of the quarterback position. He's not playing well.
7:18He's not wrong, by the way. He's not wrong with that.
7:21And the shift. Yeah. And the shift at play calling has not helped thus far.
7:26We'll see if it can have a better result maybe here against the Cardinals defense.
7:31But last week, even an RB2 against the Arizona Cardinals and Blake Corum had a really, really strong day.
7:37He got it in the end zone via the air as well.
7:41So somebody that we might have talked about on last week's episode.
7:44Yes, sir. Yes, sir. How we we discussed Blake Corum as a top 24 running back last week.
7:50And look at Corum was top 20. Seth, who knew?
7:53Who knew? You want to know the sad part, too?
7:57Is I had him starting in my. Did Pops start him against you, too?
8:01No, no. It was in. It was. It was.
8:04I actually started him against Pops in that. There we go.
8:07But in a different league. I got a lot of Blake Corum.
8:11Let's just say that. But I fired him up in my league of record, my big money home league.
8:17And I had to sit him at the last minute because I was like, oh, Tyler, I was here as a starter.
8:24What could go wrong there? And I found out what could go wrong there.
8:29You got bammed. That's what happened. Yeah, I got bammed.
8:32We all got bammed. Absolutely. And speaking of getting bammed here, Derek, we're moving on to one of the grossest matchups of
8:39the week, one of the lowest totals of the week as well.
8:43But you think maybe just maybe we can wring out some lemonade from these lemons?
8:48I think we can, dude. And I think that Casey Concepcion is due for a big game.
8:53I know that he's wide receiver 74 in fantasy points per game.
8:57I know it's been god awful. But this has been a Casey problem in the sense of how well Casey Concepcion is playing versus the fantasy production.
9:06Like that Grand Canyon in real life versus fantasy has been massive.
9:09I understand all of that. And I understand people are going to say there's no way in hell that I'm playing Casey this week.
9:17Amongst 100 qualifying wide receivers, Seth, Casey Concepcion is 12th in separation, 38th in route win rate.
9:23That's not commiserate with wide receiver 74 in fantasy points per game.
9:26You also look at the fact that Casey leads the team in target share with 19%.
9:31He has a 26.7% first reach here. He has a 27.3% design target rate.
9:36So all of this says that it really with the narrative I'm constructing here because I think it's real is Casey Concepcion
9:43is due for a big game, Seth. Because all the underlying analytics say he's good at football and the matchup is definitively there this week.
9:51Tennessee Titans given up the second most yards per target, fourth most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing slot receivers.
9:57I think Casey Concepcion has his best game. And I know that's a low bar, low bar.
10:03I think he has his best game of the season.
10:06I think he's a comfortable top 36 wide receiver.
10:09I think he could be a wide receiver too if everything hits this week.
10:13Yeah, you know, he is getting not as much of an opportunity as I thought he would, right?
10:1920.2% target share right now. But at the same time, he's getting design targets, which not always great to leading to fantasy
10:26success, but number one in the NFL right now at the wide receiver position for that.
10:31So that's at least one thing he is going in his favor.
10:35The thing he doesn't, of course, it's just Deshaun Watson at quarterback, right?
10:39Absolutely terrible. That is what really scares me off here.
10:42I do have a question here about scheme. Are we going to see more man coverage from the Titans, do you think, in this one?
10:50Because that is where it seems like he's getting a lot of target separation is against man coverage.
10:56No, I don't think you're going to. You're not getting a lot of man coverage.
11:01It looks not out of the Titans. Robert Sala is not a man guy, and I'll pull it up live in real.
11:08Yeah, six lowest man rate in the NFL, 14.5%.
11:11Okay. So. Okay. All right. Yeah. So maybe not my favorite.
11:14Like, I like the hope. And I want to hope because, like, again, I have a future.
11:20All full versus slot receivers, dude. I think. And then.
11:23Okay. It's just all of the underlying data points me to.
11:27We've had blow up weeks from Denzel Boston, despite Deshaun Watson.
11:30We haven't seen one of those yet from Casey Concepcion.
11:33So I think we get it here, man. The matchup is all there.
11:37The usage has been there. The talent is there because he can't control how accurate the targets are coming his way.
11:44But what he can control is getting open in case he's doing that at a high rate.
11:50Okay. All right. Well, speaking of gross matchups and gross teams, we got one happening in East Rutherford this weekend.
11:56This guy's getting disrespected, man. I've just got. The Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets.
12:01What do you have for us here at the wide receiver position?
12:05All right. So I want you to pull up Malik Washington's per game.
12:09Just we'll run down the scores on how many PPR points he has put up on a weekly basis.
12:15And we'll come back to that, Seth. So giving you some homework while I start to, you know, spit the diatribe here.
12:22Malik Washington is wide receiver 42 in ECR. I think it's disrespectful.
12:26This guy's been a borderline wide receiver three. He's wide receiver 37 in fantasy points per game.
12:31He's coming off two straight top 36 weeks, wide receiver 35 and 23.
12:35He has not scored a touchdown. And so again, going back to this, Seth, if you toss a touchdown on top of
12:42Malik Washington's PPR out at a point for a output every single week, add a touchdown to any one of those games.
12:49And now tell me this, if you put a touchdown on top of almost every single one of those stat lines is
12:56Malik Washington not producing at a wide receiver two level on points per game.
13:01If he would have scored a touchdown in any one of those games, Seth, roll through the PPR point production on a weekly basis.
13:08Let's just run the numbers here. Yeah. Run it.
13:116.3, 8.7, 11.1, 12.0, 12.1. So every single game, if he scores a touchdown, he's anywhere probably in that third, like 12 to 18 range for production.
13:20All of this says he's getting rushing attempts to.
13:23Dude, he's averaged over one and a half rushing attempts the last four weeks.
13:27Yes. And he's getting a crap ton of volumes.
13:30Like this guy has got a 27.7% target share.
13:33Malik Washington, I was almost a 30% first read share.
13:36He's getting elite volume and he's been damn good with the volume he's gotten 1.93 yards per route run.
13:42Plus you go back to the coverage matchup for the jets.
13:46They're running the 10th highest too high rate in the, uh, in the NFL against too high Malik Washington, 30% target per
13:53route run rate, 2.1 yards per route run. The jets versus slot receivers, 14th most yards per target, 13th most fantasy points per opportunity.
14:01I think Malik Washington is a strong wide receiver three this week.
14:04I think he finally, finally gets into the end zone.
14:08And Malik Washington walks away from this week as a wide receiver too, because he's been knocking on the freaking door all season, Seth.
14:15And all we need is for him to finally score a freaking touchdown, dude.
14:20I'll tell you what, I hate it a lot less than I thought I was going to when we started going down that realm.
14:27But, um, yeah, nothing to say about it. Where he's at is it's all based off of volume.
14:33It's because he hasn't scored any damn touchdowns, dude.
14:36So if he does that this week, he's vaulting up the ranks and everybody's going to go, whoa, how did he, how
14:43did he score as a wide receiver too this week?
14:46Well, he's basically been doing that without the touchdowns every single week.
14:50Question for you. Do you think that Caleb Douglas's return will impact that volume at all?
14:55Cause that is a crazy target share for him to be earning right now.
15:00I don't think it will, but I also don't think we get Caleb Douglas this week.
15:05He only had a limited practice to open the week.
15:08So, okay. Okay. Maybe I'll jump in the shark on that one.
15:12I think we're a week away from Caleb Douglas, but even if he does play this week, I think we're still going
15:19to see Malik Washington because the jets have been better against outside wide receivers and more soft against the slot plus the coverage matchup and stuff.
15:27So I think it's Malik Washington, regardless of however we slice this.
15:31Okay. All right. Well, let's go ahead and let's keep the good times going.
15:35Cause we got some Tanner McKee football in prime time this week.
15:39What do you have for us out there in the city of brotherly love?
15:44All right. We're going to go further, further down the rankings right now.
15:48And we are going to discuss Makaya Lemon at wide receiver 52 and ECR.
15:52Is there a glittering stat that I can give you that tells you that Makaya Lemon is just a smash play this week?
16:00No, but the matchup is absolutely fantastic for him.
16:03Now the positives from Makaya Lemon last week, he had almost a 90% route share, 11% target share, 15% first reach share.
16:10None of that's amazing. But you look at the matchup this week, Seth, dude, Dallas is being just absolutely just ransacked by slot receivers.
16:17Dallas Cowboys are not kidding up. Dude, they're giving up the most yards per target to opposing slot receivers.
16:23They're giving up the most. They've given up the most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers.
16:29They have given up the third most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing slot receivers.
16:33So I'm not telling you, Makaya Lemon is going to lead the team in targets.
16:38I'm not telling you that he's going to jump Devonta Smith and Dallas Goddard in the pecking order, but Tanner McKee played serviceable.
16:45The Dallas Cowboys. None of us think that this defense is imposing where you beat this defense is via the slot.
16:52Saquon Barkley might be back this week. So maybe they get a competent rushing attack to also pair with Tanner McKee to
16:59take some of the pressure off of him. I think Makaya Lemon can be a very serviceable flex play.
17:05And again, I'm not telling you he's a wide receiver too this week, but I think what we could get out of
17:12Makaya Lemon is he shows a pulse in fantasy and we get a serviceable like 12 to 13 PPR points, maybe a
17:19little bit less than that, where you're like, oh, Makaya Lemon, wide receiver 32 for the week.
17:25He was a good flex play. And if he gets in the end zone, wheels are up, man.
17:31This is a crazy one I dug into. There have been 21 targets to opposing slot receivers against the Cowboys.
17:37Guess how many of those have been completed, Derek, out of 21 passes?
17:4120. One incompletion to opposing slot. And so like when you told me, you know, the yards per route run to opposing
17:48wide receivers in the slot, I was not shocked by that because every one of them has been a completion pretty much.
17:55Right. So that certainly helps. So yeah, dude, I totally love that.
17:59Makaya Lemons and someone I've actually been looking at potentially buying low on moving forward just because I think he will be
18:06a part of this offense with the short and in the intermediate game.
18:10And he's even also someone like I'm looking at potentially getting on my betting card for an over two and a half reception ticket out there this week.
18:19So yeah, don't hate that at all. To pair to all of this, just point to last week.
18:25Sabian Williams caught all four of his targets for 32 receiving yards.
18:29Yes. That's 7.2 PPR points. If you throw a touchdown on top of that, he's living in the 13 range.
18:35That's what we could see from Makaya Lemmon this week.
18:38And that's not like an insane bar to clear, but for fantasy with bye weeks and injuries and everybody's saying Makaya Lemmon is widely available on waiver wires.
18:47And I'm not saying that he shouldn't be, but for this week, if you are struggling and you're like, yeah, all right,
18:54Makaya Lemmon's out there on the waiver wire. Let's go.
18:57Yes, you should. Chris Godwin, three for 37 on three targets the week prior.
19:02Jalen Noel, three for 85 on three targets the week before that back in week four.
19:07So yeah, I'm a hundred percent in there with you.
19:10And I also imagine the fancy pro start sit assistant would also be a ringing endorsement of Makaya Lemmon this week because
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19:36We're going back to the home of the baguettes out in France.
19:40What do you got for us? Juwan Johnson. I know that everybody is like, okay, he's tied in 11 and ECR.
19:47But if you're looking at start set decisions this week, I know a lot of people are going to be very scared.
19:54And the reason that I bring Juwan Johnson up on this program is because if you're staring at Juwan Johnson or I
20:01mean, just run through the a few names above him, Juwan Johnson or Travis Kelsey, Juwan Johnson or Tyler Higby, Juwan Johnson or Kyle Pitts.
20:09I'm starting Juwan Johnson over all of these other low end tight end ones this week with confidence.
20:15And I'm saying that because and I wanted to include him in this conversation for people because over the last two games, 5.6 points, zero PPR points.
20:23People are like, oh, dude, okay. Maybe the party's over for Juwan Johnson.
20:28I think he has a really strong bounce back game in this one.
20:32And again, going back to the Pittsburgh defense, they've given up the ninth most yards per target against opposing tight ends, the
20:39six most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
20:42Juwan Johnson. Again, I think that he bounces back.
20:45Chris Alave has a strong game, but I think Juwan Johnson gets in the end zone and he's a strong tight end one this week.
20:53And a lot of people might be scared off of him and playing other options above him because that's where I'm seeing in rankings right now.
21:01It's just like, no, I'm taking Juwan Johnson over any like all three of those different guys.
21:06So like Juwan Johnson is comfortable like a top eight, top 10 tight end for me this week.
21:12Easy. Yeah. Tight ends have hit double digit PPR points in 50% of the games against the Steelers this year.
21:18And Derek, it's so funny that this is still like a thing where this is where you can target the Steelers because
21:25every time back in college when my friends and I would go to a Steelers game, we would always make sure that
21:32we all come together and put about 20 bucks, you know, in a pot each of us and we'd always bet the
21:40opposing tight end overs in that game. And then if we won, we'd go to the casino and just continue the good times.
21:47Right. And we usually, we usually did win because like the Steelers have always had a sieve in their defense where they
21:54cannot, you know, stop opposing tight ends. It's been a little bit better at times this year, but you know, throw out
22:01Kate Auden's game last week because it's Kate Auden, but the week before that Tyler Warren, nine targets, seven receptions, 83 yards, Harold Fannin Jr.
22:09found the end zone on three and 27. Mike is sick.
22:12He's three for 37 and one the week before two.
22:16So yeah, you know, this is a linebacking core that's been paid a lot by Pittsburgh.
22:21It's not one that can stop. Yeah, exactly. Not very good.
22:24Two other real quick shout outs. If you're struggling at the tight end position, as far as streamers, I am.
22:31I got Harold Fannin Jr. A lot of places.
22:34And this is like, I just wanted to give the state of the union address on about Jawan Johnson before we kind
22:41of like, I just wanted to add these other guys on because they almost made the show this week.
22:47Like we almost went too tight end heavy. I almost went further down the board.
22:51So I didn't want to get them in for people in deeper leagues.
22:56Or if you're struggling in a dynasty league of filling out final flex positions, Mason Taylor last week, definitively, it was the
23:03clear number one tight end for the jets. The Miami dolphins have given up the second most yards per target, third most
23:10fantasy points per opportunity to opposing tight ends. And then speaking of guys where we have not spoken their name in many
23:17seasons so far, Evan Ingram, Evan Ingram, I think pretty tight end one this week, going back to Denver's usage or at
23:24least how they attack too high coverage Arizona. Again, just to remind everybody highest too high rate in the NFL.
23:30Evan Ingram is right behind RJ Harvey and target per route run rate for the Denver Broncos at 23% with a very
23:37strong 1.89 yards per route run against too high Arizona has given up the fifth most yards per target and the fourth
23:44most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing tight ends.
23:47So Mason Taylor and Evan Ingram might also sneak in with some really surprising weeks and week seven.
23:53What it could have been for Justin Jolie, man.
23:56I miss you, Justin Jolie. Hopefully, hopefully, but it's, it's Evan Ingram time is what downtown Derek Brown's telling us a couple
24:03of gross tight end shout outs there on the way out.
24:06Appreciate that. Appreciate all the great analysis, not just here on this episode of the fantasy pros fans football podcast, Derek, but
24:13also in the primer at fantasypros.com that you can also check out.
24:17Also be sure comment down below your favorite week seven must start players.
24:21And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel.
24:26If you're new for Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock.
24:29Take care y'all. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
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