Our BOLDEST Fantasy Football Predictions for 2026 | Breakouts, Busts & League-Winners (Ep. 2167)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 3, 2026
Published
Thu, September 3, 2026
26
Player insights
22
Players mentioned
Topics
David MontgomeryDontayvion WicksJalen CokerMakai LemonA.J. BrownBrian Thomas Jr.Bryce YoungChristian WatsonDarren WallerDrake MayeJayden DanielsJayden ReedJordan LoveLadd McConkey
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection1:58
Andrew Erickson projects A.J. Brown to finish as the overall WR1 in fantasy football, fueled by his connection with quarterback Drake Maye.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveBust5:00
Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson are pessimistic about Brian Thomas Jr.'s early-season outlook due to a difficult schedule featuring shadow coverage from top cornerbacks through week 10. Erickson suggests he may become the most dropped player by week 9 and a prime buy-low candidate thereafter.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeUsage53:23
Derek Brown expresses skepticism regarding Bryce Young's volume, noting that while Young has been effective when the team pushes volume, there is doubt about whether the coaching staff will allow him to do so consistently.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout8:20
Andrew Erickson projects a breakout season for Christian Watson, predicting a top-12 WR finish. He highlights Watson's efficiency in 2024 (WR17 in PPG, 34% air yard share) and notes that the departure of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks leaves a massive void in targets and air yards. Erickson compares the situation to Jameson Williams' breakout, noting the team's commitment via a new contract.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveUsage58:24
Derek Brown notes that Dave Canales' offenses do not aggressively target tight ends by design, and mentions that Darren Waller has struggled to stay on the field, further limiting the position's fantasy relevance in this scheme.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeBust34:56
Derek Brown predicts David Montgomery will finish as a mid-tier RB3, arguing that his efficiency in Detroit cannot be applied to the Texans' offense. Concerns include a revamped, unproven offensive line, a potential 50-50 carry split with Woody Marks, and a lower-scoring offensive environment compared to Detroit.
Insight pageNegativeProjection38:24
Derek Brown notes that Montgomery's fantasy projections are overly optimistic, as he is being modeled as a lead back despite the likelihood of a significant workload split with Woody Marks. Montgomery's production is expected to be mediocre due to the team environment and the potential for Marks to eat into his usage.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveBreakout19:22
Derek Brown projects a breakout season for Dontayvion Wicks, noting he is becoming an undeniable force in the Packers' offense. The team is actively thinning the herd at wide receiver, and Wicks is clearly carving out a significant role.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:31
Derek Brown is high on Dontayvion Wicks, citing his elite per-route metrics (separation score, route win rate) and expects him to be unleashed in the Eagles' passing attack, potentially overshadowing Makai Lemon.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection1:58
Andrew Erickson is bullish on the connection between Drake Maye and A.J. Brown, expecting significant touchdown production throughout the season.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper52:18
Derek Brown and the hosts argue that Jalen Coker is significantly undervalued compared to his ADP. In a sample of games from last year (Weeks 13-19), Coker outproduced Terrace Marshall Jr. in target share (20% vs 18.3%), yards per route run (2.3 vs 1.78), and red zone targets (4 vs 1). He is expected to serve as a reliable slot option for the Panthers.
Insight pagePositiveValue58:12
Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson view Jalen Coker as undervalued at his current real-time ADP of WR52, noting that he benefits from a narrow target funnel in the Carolina offense.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeBust25:18
Erickson predicts Jayden Daniels will finish outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, citing concerns over the Commanders' offensive line, a difficult schedule, and the potential for fewer designed runs in the new offensive scheme. The lack of elite surrounding weapons and the risk of a poor Week 1 performance against the Eagles make him a fade at his current ADP.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeRole15:47
Derek Brown identifies Jaden Reed's role as the primary slot receiver in the Packers' offense.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection13:37
Derek Brown notes that Jordan Love was the QB5 in fantasy points per game in 2023 when Josh Jacobs was not in the backfield. With Jacobs gone, Brown expects an increase in pass volume and a return to the high-scoring version of Love seen previously.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
NegativeUsage43:23
Derek Brown notes that Ladd McConkey had more drops than Quentin Johnston last year, countering the narrative that Johnston is the primary liability in the Chargers' receiving corps regarding pass-catching consistency.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveBust19:28
Derek Brown expects Makai Lemon to disappoint in his rookie season, citing early camp reports of gadget-heavy usage and concerns about his ability to play in two-receiver sets on the perimeter. He may struggle to climb the target hierarchy behind teammates like Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and Dontayvion Wicks.
Insight pageNegativeBust30:21
Derek Brown expects Makai Lemon to struggle during his rookie season due to missing training camp and preseason time. Brown believes Lemon will be relegated to gadget usage rather than playing in two-WR sets, making him a disappointment for fantasy managers.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage15:00
Andrew Erickson expresses skepticism regarding the Packers' reliance on Marshawn Lloyd, questioning his ability to handle a full workload and stay healthy throughout the season.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeRole15:49
Derek Brown identifies Matthew Golden as the X receiver for the Green Bay Packers.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout3:38
Derek Brown predicts Parker Washington will be a fantasy WR1. He cites Washington's performance from weeks 16-19 of last season, where he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game, a 29% target share, and 3.78 yards per route run, functioning as Jacksonville's version of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveBreakout41:52
Derek Brown projects Quentin Johnston as the clear WR1 for the Chargers and a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. When healthy last year (Weeks 1-4, 9-18), Johnston led the team in target share (20.3%), yards per route run (1.83), red zone targets (12), deep targets (17), and first-read share (24.8%), averaging 13.9 PPR points per game.
Insight pageTerrace Marshall
NegativeValue56:00
While the hosts debate his ranking, Terrace Marshall Jr. remains a high-end talent who won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Despite concerns about the Panthers' passing volume and Bryce Young's efficiency, Marshall commanded 126 targets and over 1,100 yards as a rookie, maintaining his status as a key target in the offense.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection47:45
Erickson predicts Trevor Lawrence will win MVP and finish as the overall QB1. From Week 5 onward last year, Lawrence averaged 23 points per game and finished top-5 in fantasy points per game. He benefits from Liam Coen's offense, which utilizes his rushing ability in the red zone; he had 9 rushing TDs last year and 38 total TDs.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveUsage39:09
Derek Brown believes Woody Marks will see more playing time than the market expects, noting he is a more natural pass-catcher than David Montgomery. Marks posted a stat line identical to Quinshon Judkins last year and is expected to command significant usage in the Texans' backfield.
Insight pageXavier Legette
PositiveUsage58:13
Andrew Erickson suggests that Xavier Legette is not a primary target in the Carolina offense, which relies on a very narrow target funnel to only two main receivers and running backs.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. With the Discover Cash Back Card, it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases.
0:07Activate and earn 5% cash back at different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases.
0:12That's 5% cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants.
0:17It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash five for details.
0:21Welcome into FantasyPros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:23Tara Roberts here with Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson, and we are giving you our BOLD, yes, extremely BOLD, we did not
0:30hold back, BOLD predictions that you need to hear about before you draft.
0:34We are closing out draft season and we are heading into week one.
0:38Debro and Erickson, I will ask you guys, because we were joking on the mock draft show, Debro, about wrapping up vacation
0:44now and heading into such an aggressive workload. But let's talk about the positive.
0:48What are you most excited about for week one?
0:51I'm just ready to get in the flow of the NFL season, man.
0:55Like the schedule and what we know to expect out of every week.
0:59I'm ready to see games. Like all this stuff we've prognosticated all offseason about what could be these breakouts, these BOLD predictions.
1:05I want to see it. I just want to see it.
1:08Yes, I'm ready to see everything. I'm ready to be right and just kind of pretend like we're never wrong about anything.
1:15Erickson, what are you looking for? Never wrong. Just early.
1:18Exactly. I'm ready for A.J. Brown to catch touchdowns from Drake May.
1:22Let's go! We're going to see it. There we go.
1:24Wednesday night, first game of the season. No holding back.
1:27A.J.B. Wide receiver once isn't is happening. From your lips to the fantasy gods, because I've got a dynasty stack of Drake May and A.J.
1:35Brown that I need to come through. Let's go.
1:38Those sleeper notifications are going to hit like none other when those guys connect on touchdowns.
1:42There we go. Every big play, all 17 weeks.
1:45There we go. We are the group of three pro, Drake May and A.J.
1:49Brown. Looking forward to it. So Wednesday is massive for us.
1:52Now let's go ahead and dive into these BOLD predictions.
1:55We separated them out, so we're giving you a nice variety.
1:59We've got breakouts. We've got fades. We've got wild card predictions.
2:02We're going to start off with the breakout predictions.
2:05And I have, and I love, spoiler alert, I love all of these predictions.
2:09Of course, you know, mine. But Debro and Erickson really gave us some great ones here.
2:13So Debro, start us off. I feel like I sound like a broken record, people.
2:18But I've been saying it before and I'll say it again here.
2:21Parker Washington. He's going to be a wide receiver one in fantasy this year.
2:26And for everybody that doesn't believe that can happen, I kindly point you to the end of last season when in the
2:32four games of week 16 through 19, he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game.
2:36He operated as Jacksonville's Almond Ross St. Brown. In those four games, he got six reds on targets, 13 deep targets.
2:42He soaked up almost a 29% target share producing 113.5 receiving yards per game, 3.78 yards per route run, garnering a 33.3% first read share.
2:50All of these numbers are elite wide receiver one usage for Parker Washington.
2:54Travis Hunter is no more. Welcome to the defense.
2:56You are a full time corner. Travis Hunter. Not worried about you.
3:00Brian Thomas, Jr. Sorry. You got to deal with shadow coverage from every single corner in the NFL until about week 10.
3:06Good luck with that. Jacoby Myers. You're good. Solid Parker Washington wide receiver one baby.
3:11It's going to happen. I love it. It's bold, but it's also extremely.
3:15Extremely realistic at the same time. I mean, looking at them, we'll know right off the bat, right?
3:20In terms of this, because you mentioned Brian Thomas Jr.
3:23And the shadow coverage. I mean, it's just literally the most nasty start of the season for him with Cleveland, Denver, New England, and Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Houston.
3:31Then maybe Indianapolis figures things out as they get settled in.
3:34They come after the bye week. Then they get sauce in Indianapolis after that.
3:39I mean, just even Baltimore after that. Just, it's just, it's sad.
3:42So I feel for him. Back half of the season.
3:45Yeah. Maybe something can happen, but Parker Washington, absolutely taking control here.
3:49Erickson, are you pro Parker Washington? Yes. Pro Parker Washington.
3:52I was even considering making one of my bold predictions for the show that Brian Thomas Jr.
3:57Is going to have a breakout season on the Las Vegas Raiders.
4:00In the second half of the season. I was actually ended.
4:03I almost put him on the later part of this show.
4:07And, but I was like, I can't make it this too Jaguar centric, but I almost came out here and said, Brian Thomas Jr.
4:14will be the most drop player by week nine.
4:16He's going to be the poster boy for every by low article that is written in fantasy going into week 10 about pick up Brian Thomas Jr.
4:24Because he's going to be on the waiver wire of every single league.
4:28Yeah, I agree. I do. I'll be doing the five moves to make video every single week.
4:33And I think, you know, around week four, I'll start spreading the propaganda of, you know, now it's time to put out those feelers because.
4:41That's great, Tara. You just said, you just go ahead and roll Brian Thomas Jr.
4:45into that segment every single week. Exactly. I've pre-written my content here.
4:49I can get it done. It would be good to go for the year.
4:53Erickson, tell us about your prediction. You've got another wide receiver for us.
4:57Yeah, I'm also projecting a breakout season for a wide receiver.
5:00Christian Watson is going to finish this year as a fantasy wide receiver one.
5:04He and Parker Washington were my two biggest takeaways when I was writing up my identifying breakout wide receiver one piece that I wrote a couple months ago.
5:12Those two guys moved up the most in my ranks as prime candidates to make the leap into the top 12 for
5:19the first time in their NFL careers. I think that Christian Watson is a super dynamic wide receiver when it comes to
5:26creating yards after the catch and creating plays downfield.
5:28And that's the perfect recipe for finding a player that they can put it all together, combine it with some touchdown equity.
5:35This guy can be a top 12 wide receiver last year.
5:38I mean, what he was able to accomplish after coming off a late ACL injury in the 2024 season.
5:44I mean, electric in just 11 games played. He got an all pro vote.
5:48People forget that. I know Justin Herbert got an MVP vote.
5:51Christian Watson got an all pro vote despite just playing in 11 games.
5:55He supplanted Romeo Dobbs as the clear cut wide receiver one in the Packers offense.
5:59He was wide receiver 17 in points per game, 11.5, 34% air yard share.
6:03He totaled over a thousand air yards in a limited games played.
6:07Also career highs in both yards and yards per route run.
6:10Low key target hog. He never saw fewer than four targets in any of the contests for the Green Bay Packers.
6:17And given the fact that Dobbs is no more on the offense, Don Tavion Wicks is gone.
6:22He's a lockout of vacated targets and air yards.
6:24Top five in both those categories for Christian Watson to I think establish himself as the wide receiver one in this offense.
6:31And how I compare it to is the Jameson Williams breakout from last year when he finished as a fantasy wide receiver one.
6:38Now, one of the big takeaways from that piece that I wrote was finding that year.
6:42Year three is mostly the common year that we see a lot of breakout players and Jameson Williams just based on all the time he had missed.
6:50He kind of was lined up for a year three type of breakout, even though it was his fourth season that he
6:57ended up finishing as a wide receiver one. Now Christian Watson, we know his M.O.
7:01has been a lot of missed games through four seasons only played 48 games.
7:05So he's actually been closer to three seasons played given the time he's missed because of all the injuries.
7:11And similar to Jameson Williams, what did the Lions do before his breakout season?
7:15They paid him a new contract. What did the Packers do this offseason?
7:19Pay Christian Watson a brand new contract. A lot of people looked at it and thought, man, why are they paying this guy so much money?
7:27Because they know his potential and what he can do when he's fully healthy and he's not rehabbing an injury like he is fully healthy, ready to go.
7:35And I think my favorite part about this type of bull prediction is Watson really hasn't been a buzzy guy this offseason.
7:42It really hasn't been, oh, Christian Watson is because it's been Parker Washington propaganda and Luther Burton propaganda.
7:47And I'm all for, you know, buying into that hype of training camp.
7:51But sometimes there are these silent killers like Christian Watson.
7:54And I think that he's just going to come out guns blazing against Minnesota Vikings in week one with Jordan Love dropping back to throw.
8:01No Josh Jacobs, more uptempo, more passing. And I think that Watson's in for a career year if he can stay healthy.
8:08So wide receiver one for the Green Bay Packers.
8:10Erickson, I love that you just brought up the Josh Jacobs stuff because I want everybody to be kind to rewind with me.
8:17The last time we didn't see Josh Jacobs gobbling up carries in the Green Bay backfield.
8:22I just want everybody to realize that Jordan Love was key B5 and fantasy points per game that season in 2023.
8:28So just let that marinate more throwing from Jordan Love.
8:31All the Christian Watson you can handle. So it's going to be beautiful.
8:35Beautiful. I agree. I'm glad you pointed that out because every single prediction I made about the Packers offense and Jordan Love
8:42and the pass catchers was prior to the Josh Jacobs stuff because you're 100% right.
8:46The change and pass volume to leaning aggressively on the ground game and being top five in terms of rush attempts was directly tied to Josh Jacobs.
8:54We know that's exactly it. So with him gone, you know, and the trust level that we have now we're drafting Marshawn
9:00Lloyd, the trust level that we have in terms of him making it through the season, how aggressively can they rely on him?
9:07It makes sense that they're going to have to push that pass volume up and we get back to the original version
9:14of Jordan Love because it's not as if he's been having problems or he's inaccurate and there are any issues.
9:20They just don't pass the ball a lot. So that was literally the only issue.
9:24So now we can have that happen. And then there's another thing that I wanted to point out, which makes me, you
9:31know, a little sad that I don't have as many Christian Watson shares as I would like now that we can get this uptick in volume.
9:38They thinned out the herd and the receiving core, but the real key I think is going to be that they're defining the positions on the field differently.
9:47We've got Jaden Reed on the slot. We've got Matthew Golden as the X receiver.
9:51And now we can have Christian Watson as the Z and we can get a little bit more creative usage and more targets towards him.
9:59So I'm feeling good about this one as well.
10:01I love this bold prediction. Now I want to see if you guys will go with me on my bold prediction.
10:07You gave wide receivers. So I wanted to give a running back, throw that in there.
10:12Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt finishes as an RB1. This is the season where Washington finally abandons the agitating committees that we have seen
10:19over the years and delivers an RB1 with Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt.
10:22It's funny because for as much as everyone talks about how we can't fade Travion Henderson because of his high upside in
10:29the promising rookie season, Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt's rookie season was kind of a mirror season as we had to Travion Henderson.
10:35It just happened in a far worse offense because he had the exact same issue in terms of getting pulled at times
10:41to have a more reliable veteran option on the field like Travion Henderson had with her Madre Stevenson.
10:47Henderson had 180 carries, just over 900 yards, nine touchdowns.
10:50Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt had 175 carries, just over 800 yards, eight touchdowns.
10:53Again, on an objectively terrible offense that was dealing with injury issues with Jane Daniels.
10:58He just couldn't be trusted to catch or block, but that's okay because he understood that that was the issue and he
11:04reportedly spent his offseason working on that. And the reports out of Washington have made it clear that he has actually improved his passing downs work.
11:12Now, of course, Rashad White does exist. Rashad White is very excellent at pass blocking and receiving.
11:17That is his creme de la creme of skill sets.
11:20So the expectation was not that Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt would go out there and suddenly in one offseason be better than Rashad White.
11:27No, buddy, we just need you to be passable so that you are not a liability on the field and you don't
11:33have to be pulled out in a one-for-one role.
11:36So now Washington can get a little bit more creative.
11:39They don't have to telegraph plays. They can still use White as the change of pace back.
11:44But when it comes to early down back, goal line work, and a little bit of added receiving work, we've got Ja'Cory
11:50Krosky Merritt operating as the RB1 and an offense that will function better with Jane Daniels back at quarterback to help open up opportunities and running lanes.
11:58Daniels isn't really a quarterback that's going to snipe at the goal line anyway, so those goal line opportunities will belong to him.
12:05He is, to me, this year's Javante Williams in terms of a guy that is going around round eight or nine who
12:12will be a lead back and a strong offense.
12:14And he's the guy that you draft as an RB3, but you get to start every single week once you get comfortable
12:21with it and realizing that this works out. So that is my bold prediction.
12:25Are you guys team Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt or are you more skeptical?
12:29Go ahead, Erickson. You're the Rashad White stand on this podcast.
12:32I want you to push back. And then I'm going to give some Bill love at the end of this.
12:38I'll go down with the ship with Rashad White.
12:40I just like that he has been more accomplished than Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt.
12:44Obviously, it's Bill's second season, so he still has more to prove.
12:48But when you make the comparison to Javante, I look at that as, well, Javante had showcased, hey, I can be a fantasy RB1.
12:55Rashad White's already been a top eight fantasy running back before.
12:58We've already seen him do it, and it's because he does the things that score well in fantasy.
13:04Good in the red zone and good at catching passes.
13:07He's caught at least 40 passes every single season he's been in the NFL.
13:11I think that that goes a long way. So even if Bill is improving as a pass catcher, is he still better than Rashad White?
13:18Like that is the main question. And we're going to find out when they face the Philadelphia Eagles in week one on the road.
13:25Well, buddy, buckle up. Are you ready for pass or not?
13:29Because if you blow a coverage or a protection and J.J.
13:32gets blown up, you're going on the bench. And Rashad White's going to be in the game sooner rather than later.
13:38So that's the only pushback I'll have. And the commander's offensive line also does concern me a little bit.
13:44I know they've been dealing with some injuries, so that's the only other thing that I would point out.
13:49But yeah, again, I don't hate your call. I think that there is some value in this commander's backfield just because everybody is so cheap.
13:57I'm just going on the Rashad White. And of course, he went to call up Jane Daniels.
14:02So they're both they're boys. Understandable. My only pushback with Bill and stuff, I think he is a hands down better fit.
14:08If this rushing offense goes to more wide zone and just zone runs just in general, because you look at how the
14:15commanders operated as a rushing attack last year. Fourth lowest zone rate as far as just rushing volume.
14:20But they had the third highest zone rushing success rate.
14:23And this all ties into Bill because amongst 49 qualifying running backs last year, he had the seventh best zone in the
14:30arts per carry and the ninth best zone rushing success rate.
14:33So if they move to more of this zone based rushing attack with David Blau calling plays and stuff like that.
14:39And yes, to Erickson's point, the offensive line without Tunsil and stuff like that is a big concern.
14:44Yeah. But we've seen other teams and other schemes like how many years we've been talking about the 49ers outside of Trent Williams.
14:51What the heck does this offensive line look like or other varieties of zone rushing schemes?
14:56So if this transition to more wide zone happens, Bill is a hand down better fit for this scheme.
15:02He's awesome for it. That's where I think we could see the upside.
15:05If the offensive line can at least be league average in this transition.
15:09There we that's the tagline league average. You don't need you to be perfect.
15:13We need you to just be passable and OK.
15:16Keep Jane Daniels upright. And before we move on to our next set of predictions, our fade predictions, buying glasses can be
15:23a struggle between pricing and feeling like things are overcomplicated and finding the perfect fit for your face.
15:28That is what is so great about Warby Parker.
15:31Nothing comes close on quality, price, selection and customer service.
15:34Once you buy from Warby Parker, you realize just how much easier they've made the entire process.
15:39Their virtual try on is a total game changer.
15:41You can literally try on glasses from your phone before you buy.
15:45It is wild how well it actually works. I have tried other virtual try ons that just aren't really up to standards.
15:51But with Warby Parker, you can genuinely tell how the frames are going to look and fit.
15:56You just point your camera and boom, there it is.
15:59You get a ton of frames on your face in real time.
16:03And when it comes to the quality for price, Warby Parker is the best.
16:07Honestly, not even close. No more choosing between flimsy, outdated styles or spending half your paycheck.
16:12Warby Parker completely changed that. Their prescription glasses start at $95.
16:15So you can actually get quality and stylish frames at an affordable price.
16:19Warby Parker doesn't just offer incredible prescription glasses. They have everything you need for happier eyes.
16:24That includes contacts, which I wear. Online eye exams and sunglasses.
16:27It is all in one place, which makes it so much easier for you.
16:31They also have over 300 retail stores across the U.S.
16:34So it's nice knowing that you have that in-person option if you really want it or need it.
16:39And did I mention that Warby Parker has distributed over 20 million pairs of glasses to people in need through its Buy a Pair, Give a Pair program.
16:48And Warby Parker is covered by major eye insurance plans right now.
16:51Buy one pair of glasses and get 20% off any additional pairs at warbyparker.com slash fantasy pros.
16:56That is 20% off any additional pairs when you purchase one at warby, W-A-R-B-Y parker.com slash fantasy pros.
17:02And we actually have someone modeling them on the show right now.
17:05Now it is Andrew Erickson in the Warby Parker glasses.
17:08There we go. Yeah, I absolutely love these glasses.
17:11I actually use the online feature to order them.
17:14I ordered them when I was on vacation. Not even home.
17:17I had some time in the morning. I used the app, took a picture.
17:21And then when I arrived back at my house a week later, they were there for me.
17:26And I love them. I know the comments have suggested that, are those your grandma's glasses?
17:31Are those woman's glasses? Nah, I think they're really stylish.
17:34My wife likes them. A lot of my family and friends like them.
17:38They turn brown in the sun. Little tint action.
17:40So, yeah, and Warby Parker, anytime I go to one of the stores, because, you know, I'm an active guy.
17:46My glasses are falling off my face sometimes. They tighten them for free.
17:50So you just go in, they give them a little tight, and then they don't fall off my face anymore.
17:56So, yeah, shout out to Warby Parker. Andrew Erickson on the beach, in the cave, ordering glasses.
18:01I mean, I think I look like Tony Darns sometimes.
18:04Eating lobster rolls, just living life, baby. You love to see it.
18:07It is fantastic. Moving on to our bust and fade predictions.
18:11We're going to have Debro kick us off. Hopefully, hopefully these bold predictions don't hurt too many feelings, but we might ruffle some feathers here.
18:18Debro kick us off. I think Makai Lemon missing most of training camp in the preseason is going to hurt him.
18:24Also, when you juxtapose this with the rise of Dontavian Wicks and the Philly passing attack, I think Makai Lemon will have
18:31a Luther Burden-esque type rookie season where he is struggling to get on and stay on the field all of his entirety
18:37of his rookie season because Dontavian Wicks... I must be a Packers homer on this.
18:42Like, golly. But anyway, I think he's going to struggle to be on the field and stay on the field in two
18:48wide receiver sets because Dontavian Wicks quietly has really been freaking good.
18:52And we're going to see him unleashed in the Philadelphia Eagles passing attack this year.
18:56Wicks on a per route basis has been third and 24th in separation score over the last two years, sixth and seventh in route win rate.
19:04And even if you just look on a per route basis last year, target per route run rate, first downs per route
19:11run amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers, Dontavian Wicks was 41st and 25th in those two metrics last year.
19:16Now unleashed in the Eagles passing attack. And you put this also with Makai Lemon missing so much time.
19:22Wicks is going to be undeniable and we're going to see a breakout season from him, which is going to hurt Makai
19:28Lemon, who in the early reports of camp and training camp stuff, like he's getting gadgety kind of usage, like in motion, on play action.
19:36That's not a guy that like, at least if those reports are true and this goes through the entire season, is he
19:42playing in two wide receiver sets on the perimeter?
19:45It's one of the biggest questions I had about him as a prospect coming into the NFL.
19:50And I think Wicks is going to make life very difficult for Makai Lemon.
19:54And he's going to disappoint people in his rookie season.
19:57Yeah, not to like aggressively say, oh, we got to go out and target Dontavian Wicks.
20:02But it has to be pointed out that he clearly has a role in this offense.
20:06We talk about the Packers thinning the herd while they thin the herd with Dontavian Wicks by trading him over to a
20:13guy who was coaching the team last year in Sean Mannion.
20:16So for all the arguments we make about coaches and previously and that he was this guy's offensive coordinator, Sean Mannion was right there with him last year.
20:24So the fact that he brought him over, I don't know, guys, it could be happening.
20:29And I think you're 100 percent right. Once we see gadgety stuff is fun when it's being added on top a little extra.
20:36But if the gadgety stuff is the main thing we have to rely on, that is a that is a concern.
20:42Erickson, are you in or out on Makai Lemon this season?
20:46Well, I mean, his price is reflected in all the things that Debra pointed out.
20:50I mean, he goes outside the top 40 wide receivers and Luther Burden was wide receiver 48, I believe, in his final standing during his rookie season.
20:58So I totally understand the outline of the season for Makai Lemon.
21:02But the fact that the price has come down so dramatically that in deeper formats, I still like having Lemon on my
21:08bench as a player that, yes, if he's following this type of season, he can pop in the second half of the
21:15year, as we tend to see from a lot of his rookie wide receivers, especially ones that deal with injuries early on.
21:21So I'm not totally writing him off. I think that in shallower leagues, though, it's going to be a much tougher sell
21:28to hold on to someone like Lemon or as you'd rather go with someone like Casey Concepcion.
21:33Right. It's so easy to see where week one he comes out and he goes for 100 yards because Deshaun Watson is
21:39just peppering him with targets because they're getting smoked by the Jaguars.
21:43Whereas Makai Lemon, he could be fourth in targets behind Goddard and Smith and Wicks, like you pointed out.
21:48So I think it's just kind of adjusting expectations with Lemon.
21:52I think it's the best way to approach, but not necessarily completely bury him for the entirety of 2026.
21:57I love that you brought up Casey because I was going to pose this to you after you got done with your
22:04diatribe because I was like they're going within six spots of each other.
22:08If you're on the clock, who are you taking Lemon or Casey?
22:11And for me, it's easy Casey every time. Still treating podcast ads like a gamble?
22:16Stop paying for impressions and start paying for results.
22:18Audio Hook is the AI-powered podcast advertising platform built for performance.
22:22With Audio Hook, you set your conversion goal, set your price per conversion, and Audio Hook optimizes your campaign across podcasts, streaming, and digital radio.
22:29No conversions, no invoice. Brands like Kraken, Codecademy, and IP Vanish Trust Audio Hook to unlock audio as a real growth channel.
22:36Go to audiohook.com. That's audiohook.com. A-U-D-I-O-H-O-O-K.com. And start your free campaign today.
22:39On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon.
22:42People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Richard Pryor. And we pull apart the story behind the image.
22:47And we do this by digging through the BBC's vast archive.
22:50We're talking iconic moments in broadcast history. I'm not just a boxer.
22:54I'm educated. I can talk all week on millions of subjects.
22:57And forgotten interviews that change how we see these giants of our culture.
23:01Well, if changing the system from the ground up is revolutionary, then I'm revolutionary.
23:05We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes.
23:09I mean, when I go on stage, I like to dress as slutty as possible because it makes me dance better for some reason.
23:16I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives.
23:19Listen to Big Lives on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get podcasts.
23:24Hi, I'm Michael Imperioli. I want to tell you about my new podcast, Underground Zero.
23:28It's about what happened in the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York.
23:34We're looking at the opportunity of a lifetime for us and the other families.
23:38While the world was mourning, five powerful New York families saw an opportunity.
23:42The debris is supposed to go to the city-owned salvage yard, and some of it will.
23:46They would go on to make millions of dollars.
23:49What's in the tunnels? Go boss, silver ingots. It could be worth half a billion.
23:53And they would have made more if it hadn't been for one courageous cop.
23:58No, Dad, don't. You're going to need all of us.
24:01I'll call you when I can. Frank, be careful.
24:03Underground Zero, starring Steve Schirippa, Ray Abruzzo, and me, Michael Imperioli.
24:07Would you be willing to see your family go to pieces?
24:10Some ways it already has. Listen to Underground Zero on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:16Yeah, let me ask a harder one, though. I'll ask both of you.
24:20Debro, would you go with Lemon or Wondell Robinson?
24:23Lemon is 48, wide receiver 48. Wondell Robinson is wide receiver 49.
24:26Okay, I'll give you a nuanced answer. Before the preseason and I saw how bad Cam Ward was playing, I would have gone with Wondell.
24:34After the preseason and I've seen how bad Cam Ward is playing, I'm going with Makai Lemon.
24:39I feel that. I don't care about what he did in the preseason, but I would still take Lemon anyway.
24:44Yeah, I feel that. Oh, God. Higher hopes we had.
24:47Hopefully, preseason was just them working out the nonsense.
24:50You know what's the curing ailment for all the Titans' offensive woes?
24:54New York Jets defense, week one. Oh, that's a good call.
24:57Good point. Brandon Stevens says hi. The complete rebuild there of the Jets defense.
25:01That's Erickson. We'll talk about your prediction. Go say, you know, I'm interested to see this one because I talked about Ja'Cory Krosky and Merritt.
25:08So I want to see how this ties into, is this like a downing of the entire Washington offense?
25:14Is it about the offensive line? Hit us with your bold prediction.
25:18Yeah, I'm just concerned about Jane Daniels and this Washington offense overall and the chance that maybe we get another dumpster fire season from them.
25:25So my prediction is that Jane Daniels would not be a top 12 fantasy quarterback.
25:30And this is one that I did not feel comfortable putting into the show sheet because I know on Fantasy Fest, JJ
25:36Zacharias, and he was talking up both Stefan Diggs and Terry McLaurin as guys that could both be top 24 wide receivers.
25:43So I'm looking at it from the other angle in terms of like the worst case scenario, the worst case run out for this commander's offense.
25:50And it starts up front with the offensive line.
25:53We've seen offensive lines that can't hold up, just crush offenses overall.
25:57It's happened with CJ Stroud in Houston, right? This electric rookie season can't fail.
26:01He's the next big thing. And what happens? The infrastructure around him just crumbles.
26:05The offensive line can't get it together. And with every new play caller, every new offensive coordinator that comes in, it's just
26:11not the right fit for what CJ Stroud was doing.
26:14Now, I know Jane Daniels isn't the same type of quarterback.
26:18They're a little bit different. Obviously, Daniels offers more mobility.
26:21So that's what makes this scarier because he can offer so much as a rusher.
26:25And I don't want to fade a guy that could leave the NFL and rushing at the quarterback position, but I'm also
26:32trying to be realistic in terms of losing Laramie Tunsil and how big a deal that is.
26:37The fact that their starting center has missed the majority of the summer.
26:40I was reading the athletic article about the Washington Commanders offensive line and the way that they described it, that just tissue thin interior of the offensive line.
26:49That terrifies me. And I know the preseason was a small sample size, but Daniels had no time to throw.
26:55Just, you know, starters are out there. They're trying to block.
26:58Nope. No chance against backup players on the opposing team.
27:01They did not play well in a lot of the preseason games.
27:04A lot of joint practices were a mixed bag for Jane Daniels and this offense.
27:09Red reports that Daniels is probably also going to have fewer design runs in this new offensive scheme because he'd be more under center.
27:16Now, I know that he's still going to scramble.
27:19That's part of his game. That's not going to go away.
27:22But I'm just, I'm just scared of investing so much into Jane Daniels, where you have to take him as an elite quarterback.
27:29When quarterback is so, so deep this year. Why take the risk on Jane Daniels, who, when you look at the ECR
27:35rankings, there are two guys that show up as red.
27:38When you look at the top 12 quarterbacks, one of them is Lamar, which we all know why.
27:44And one of them is Jane Daniels, which we all know why.
27:47And the offensive line just concerns me. David Blau, I thought that it was interesting to really point out about the 49ers
27:54and how Kyle Shanahan is able to scheme around offensive line personnel because he's Kyle Shanahan.
27:58David Blau is not Kyle Shanahan. Like he has to show that he can do that.
28:03And that's what makes me concerned that you're putting an offensive play caller, a brand new one in a position where he's
28:10already facing an uphill battle because he doesn't have his stud left tackle.
28:14He doesn't have his starting center who's missed the majority of camp because of an injury.
28:18Terry McLaurin is an older wide receiver. Stevon Diggs is an older wide receiver.
28:22Stevon Diggs, as an elite and efficient as he was last year, Patriots had no problem saying, hey, see you, bye.
28:29He's been on three different teams the last three seasons.
28:32So is he going to continue to get better?
28:34I don't think so. If anything, I think that he might fall off a little bit more.
28:39Not to say he can't be productive, but it's just all outlining all these different things.
28:44It makes me not want to draft Jane Daniels in fantasy.
28:47And it makes me want to draft every other single quarterback because there's so many other options where I feel like I
28:54can mitigate so much more risk by avoiding him.
28:56So this one, again, I have a hard time believing it myself, but I felt like I really wanted to come to the table with it.
29:04Last note, the schedule for the Philadelphia or for the Washington Commanders.
29:08Week one at the Eagles. We feeling good about that?
29:11Like, that's a matchup where I'm like, I'm already doing my week one rankings and where I've Jane Daniels ranked.
29:17Like he's not QB five or QB six because I'm concerned about that matchup.
29:21The schedule overall is really, really tough. Then they got to go to Dallas, approved defense.
29:26Then they got to host the Seattle Seahawks, really good defense.
29:29And they get to face the Colts. Okay. Maybe some relief.
29:32Oh, well, that game's in London overseas. Then you got to go back, play another division matchup against the Giants.
29:38And then you got to go on the road to San Francisco.
29:42And then you have to pay the Eagles and the Rams off their bye weeks.
29:46If they just lose all these games, Dan Quinn gets fired.
29:49Is this just another lost season? That's my big concern about this Commanders overall.
29:53And with Dan Daniels as the most expensive guy, the guy at the top, I know that he has the talent and ability to overcome it.
30:01But if that's just for him to pay off his ADP where he just finishes his QB five or QB six, I
30:08don't want to take the risk because I feel like I've outlined a lot of potential red flags and landmines with his
30:14profile when, dude, I just take Bo Nix, man.
30:17Like he's going to be QB seven for the third year in a row and I can get him in the 12th round.
30:24Rock Purdy. Yeah. So, so, so again, that, that's my bull prediction of a Jane Daniels fade.
30:29What do you guys think? Is it horrible? What do we, what do we think?
30:33The scariest thing about everything you outline there, Erickson is losing the design carry share because I'm, I'm pulling it up right now.
30:40Jane Daniels was fifth amongst quarterbacks behind only Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Jackson Dart and Kyler Murray last year in design carry share.
30:47If that drops, I mean, we're just talking about, okay, then, then his fantasy values dropping like the two are so highly
30:53correlated to each other, like his rushing ability and that like carrying the day outside of a bad, like offensive line.
31:00Yeah. It's concerning, man. Like, so if he's going to lose the rushing and this team just goes sideways, which I've not,
31:06I've not been a big fan of Adam Peters and how they built this roster, how they have not given Jane Daniels
31:13more help up front, more firepower, more skill players, all this kind of stuff.
31:17And everybody could point to like, we just look at their last two draft classes, man.
31:21They've not been good. Like we haven't gotten any returns from Ben Senate.
31:25We haven't gotten anything out of Luke McCaffrey. Antonio Williams is working with the second and third team for most of freaking training camp.
31:32So like not enough weapons, not enough blocking up front.
31:35Now the offensive line could be a big problem.
31:38Can they run the ball? Can they impose their will to run the ball?
31:42Because again, none of us are projecting that this is going to be a pass heavy or a top five passing rate team.
31:49It's all concerning. It definitely is concerning. Yeah. And you know, you talked about that schedule, 26 strength of schedule for quarterbacks.
31:56It's not easy. Yeah. So I totally get it.
31:58But here's the, here's the reality too, is that to not be a top 12 fantasy quarterback for him is kind of very in the realm of possibilities.
32:07When you look at all the guys that are going behind him, you obviously, we know the guys that are going ahead
32:13of him have that built in baked in guaranteed upside.
32:16You can even look at a Jalen hurts and say, Hey, passing volume down, but there's always tush push.
32:22Jane Daniels doesn't have that. So again, if the design run plays are down, you don't have those goal line touchdowns.
32:28That's not a great thing for him directly after him.
32:31It's Caleb Williams. We know how high Caleb Williams can finish Justin Herbert in this upgraded offensive scheme.
32:36That's going to push more pass volume. We just saw the bomb in preseason to Quentin Johnston.
32:41That is what we are expecting to be happening.
32:44Dak Prescott. We know what he can do. If he actually stays on the field, Trevor Lawrence was the overall QB one,
32:50like literally for after the first four weeks of the season there, Bo Nix, you talked about.
32:55So yeah, I can start counting up the numbers and said, yeah, realistically, there's a very good chance that if he doesn't
33:02have that high upside from an added rushing perspective or his vegging veteran receivers fail him.
33:07Yeah. I can see where he pushes back into a high QB two.
33:11So it's, it's, it's bold. It'll make people feel uncomfortable because this is the sixth quarterback coming off the board, but it's, it's realistic.
33:18Yeah. Well, and, and just kind of tying a bow on all of this.
33:22If we're saying that Jane Daniels is pushed out of the top 12 quarterbacks, but he's QB six and ADP.
33:28So basically it's like, okay, well then what seven quarterbacks can finish above him?
33:32And I can just name off the laundry list.
33:35There's so many good quarterbacks. It's not hard to like, Jackson can finish above him.
33:39Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford. If he does, if he outpaces the, the passing touchdown stuff, Jared golf, Kyler Murray, Jordan love in
33:46a pass heavy Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, Tyler shuck.
33:48I mean, that's more than seven quarterbacks that could all finish top 12.
33:52So if Jane Daniels is pushed outside the top 12, it also becomes, okay, well then who are the seven quarterbacks that
33:59finished inside the top 12 that shove him outside of that realm?
34:02Okay. We, we just walked the list of names of players that could possibly do it.
34:07Yeah. The thing that, the thing that scares me the most too, is if Daniels lays a turd in week one, every
34:13manager is going to be like, do I need to pick someone else up?
34:18Do I need to drop Jane Daniels? And I just, I don't want to deal with the headache, right?
34:23I don't want to even take the risk of him because again, that's a really brutal matchup on the road in week one against the Philadelphia Eagles.
34:31Like that is really tough with this offensive line in the state that it is.
34:36Yeah. And I just don't want to deal with the headache.
34:39Mm-hmm. Yeah. Completely agree. Uh, now we'll move on to mine again.
34:42I hope that I am not, um, breaking fantasy hearts here.
34:46These are bold predictions. I know. I'm sorry. Break in mind.
34:49I had to figure out the right way to phrase this.
34:52My bold fade prediction is that David Montgomery is a mid tier RB three.
34:56I mean, these are bold predictions. So David Montgomery truthers, put your pitchforks out.
35:01I'm sorry. And it's a bold prediction because I think we kind of forget.
35:05Like I had to push it back because being a low end RB two, um, and his, you know, ADP is RB 21.
35:12That's very achievable for running back on a very balanced team with a, you know, that plans to have good volume on
35:18the ground and insanely good defense to not hit RB two average numbers.
35:22That's not an easy task. That is why this is a very bold prediction, but there are a lot of bold predictions
35:28out there that Monty will have in RB one season.
35:31And I just kind of wanted to go in the opposite direction there because David Montgomery is not Joe Mixon.
35:37We cannot loosely apply Joe Mixon's workload and production to David Montgomery because the main difference is, is that Joe Mixon was
35:44already coming off of being an RB one multiple seasons in a row in Cincinnati.
35:48The last time that we saw Montgomery as an RB one was in 2020.
35:52That was a long time ago. My six year old was a baby back then.
35:57And even then the last time we saw Monty with over 200 carries was in 2023.
36:02And obviously we know the reason for that, right?
36:04Jameer Gibbs. There's not, it's not as if he was phased out because he was wildly ineffective.
36:09It's because they had two multiple running backs and Woody Marks is not Jameer Gibbs, but he will be in the backfield, right?
36:16He will get some burn. But my main issue aside from not expecting Mixon's exact numbers is that you also can't apply Monty's efficiency in Detroit to Houston.
36:24Detroit's offensive line was below their typical last season, but it was still better than Houston.
36:29Houston's offensive line is still trying to find itself.
36:32I hope it does. If it finds itself and this works out, then this is a bad bull prediction, but it is
36:38yet again, a revamped offensive line that they are trying to rework and trying to figure out they'll have youth in there.
36:45They've got veterans. They're trying to work in. And maybe we get a solid year for Monty if it all works out,
36:51but I'm not willing to bet on Houston's offensive line.
36:54It's not a Monty issue as much as it is again, Houston, the team, the offensive line, Detroit's run game also benefited
37:01from a highly effective pass game with Jared Goff pushing volume.
37:04And I love Houston's pass catchers. I love Nico Collins.
37:07I love Kayshawn Booty, but they are not on Detroit's level of pass catchers as a whole with Amon Ross St.
37:13Brown, Jamison Williams, and Sam Laporta. That's a group.
37:16That's a whole. Houston also runs far less plays.
37:19They score less points. They provide less goal line opportunities.
37:22It is a downgrade of an offense. So there is opportunity for him, but there's a real reality here, especially if he
37:28is splitting carries and there are reports of maybe a 50-50 situation.
37:32And mainly he could be relying on those goal line opportunities to really push him up there into that reliable weekly production.
37:38There's a possibility that if this doesn't work out the exact perfect way, we're looking at an RB3 production from him.
37:45This hurts my heart. I know. But there's a way that this could happen.
37:49And it really just comes down to if the offensive line is god-awful and if CJ Stroud has got awful.
37:55Yeah. To where there is no respect to the passing game.
37:58We're going to see Davis Mills. Nobody respects Davis Mills except for people that supply a turtle next to the world.
38:04But so I can see this happening. I don't...
38:07What? What? That was good. I wasn't expecting it.
38:09It was excellent. There you go. There you go.
38:12But again, this could easily happen if the quarterback play goes sideways and the offensive line play goes sideways.
38:18But I'll step back here for a second. Tara, I love the call.
38:22I think Dave Montgomery's a dead zone back. So I don't draft him.
38:25I'm fine if someone else wants to take. Braden Smith already went on injured reserve.
38:30The tackle that they signed. So now Trent Brown's going to start.
38:33Like Trent Brown is 38 years old. I think 39 years old.
38:37He is very long in the tooth. So for me, Montgomery is just in that zone where I don't want to draft
38:44running backs because I think that he's not going to see as much volume as the Bulls will want to put on
38:50him because this is what always happens with dead zone running backs.
38:54It's projected volume. Don't really care about offense environment.
38:56Usually it's a better offense environment when these guys get propped up.
39:00And that's the only reason why Montgomery's not going higher is because he plays for the Texans.
39:05And we're not exactly sure how high power this offense is going to be.
39:09And I agree with you. I think Woody Marks is going to play more than people are giving credit for.
39:15I mean, if you just look at the total amount of carries and yardage he got, it was he put up the
39:21exact same stat line as Quinn John Judkins last year.
39:24Yep. So again, like Woody Marks was playing out of position.
39:28I think that he's more natural as a pass catcher.
39:31That's what he did in college. So yeah, I'm with you.
39:34I think that he's going to disappoint in fantasy.
39:37Yeah, I was looking at the projections for Monty and I was like, this is optimistic.
39:41We're working him in as a lead back. And this is this is a lot, unfortunately.
39:46And if the split comes with Woody Marks, I know people like you look at it and you say, well, no, I
39:53mean, Monty is the better back, like in a vacuum.
39:56Sure. Maybe. But if Houston does like Woody Marks.
39:58So there is no reason that we can't have significant usage from him that just puts Monty in a position where the
40:05production is very mediocre and he's on the field.
40:07He's still working. He's doing Monty things. But it's just a different environment, a different situation, different team.
40:13And again, still split workload. We're going to go on to more bold predictions.
40:17But before we move on to the next set of wildcard bold predictions, I have the pleasure of announcing a giveaway winner.
40:23The winner of the Colston Loveland Sign Bears jersey giveaway is Tom Wallace.
40:27Congratulations. Please get in touch with our customer service agents at mailbag at fantasypros.com with your screenshot of your YouTube account page while logged in.
40:35Once we confirm it's you, we'll get you the prize.
40:38Again, congrats to Tom Wallace. But that is not all.
40:41We've got a new giveaway here. So if you want a chance to win a Kyron Williams signed Rams mini helmet, then this is your shot.
40:48All you have to do is leave a review on either Apple Podcasts or Spotify, then screenshot that review and email it to mailbag at fantasypros.com.
40:56We will be announcing the winner right here on the show.
40:59So make sure that you turn on those YouTube notifications or follow the podcast wherever you listen to us so you can
41:06know when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.
41:09All right. We will wrap things up with our last set of bold predictions.
41:13It's wildcard predictions. Anything goes here. These are super fun.
41:16D-Row's going to start things off with, okay, both of yours.
41:19Spoiler alert again, because I like to do the spoiler alerts.
41:23I'm obsessed in co-sign both of your bold predictions.
41:25So you will hear no argument from me, only co-signing.
41:28So no debates on this one. Let's go with D-Row's bold prediction.
41:32Quentin Johnson is the clear wide receiver one for the Los Angeles Chargers.
41:36And he's a top 15 wide receiver in fantasy this year.
41:39And for everybody that says that this is bold, it's ludicrous, is it saying?
41:43Okay, fine. I'll point you kindly to last year.
41:46When QJ was healthy in weeks one through four and, excuse me, one through four and nine through 18, he was operating as the Chargers wide receiver one.
41:54He got hurt in week five with a hamstring injury.
41:57He missed week six. Week seven and week eight, he was not part of the offense.
42:02So the Chargers can put him on the injury report, not put him on the injury report, lie about injury reports like every other NFL team.
42:10That's fine. But you could tell by the usage Quentin Johnston was not healthy.
42:14And week seven, 9% target share. Week eight, he drew zero targets.
42:17So not close to being healthy. So if we look at the sample size of when QJ was actually healthy last year,
42:24again, weeks one through four and nine through 18, this is not a four game sample.
42:29I'm extrapolating out and cutting all kinds of backflips and doing all kinds of nonsense.
42:33We look at this sample for Quentin Johnston, 20.3% target share, 1.83 yards per route run, 12 red zone targets, 17 deep
42:40targets, 27% missed tackle rate, a 24.8% first read share in this passing attack.
42:44And the reason that I bring you those six stats is because in that sample, Quentin Johnston led the entire freaking team and every single category.
42:51And looping all this back around and him being a top 15 wide receiver again in that sample, not a small one at all.
42:58He averaged 13.9 PPR points per game, which last year would have made him the wide receiver 16 and fantasy points per game.
43:05So he's knocking on the door of top 15 production.
43:08Just draft QJ. Enjoy. Oh, I love it. But Debro, he dropped passes back in 2024.
43:13No. Okay. We gotta move on. We gotta give him a chance.
43:17Like he's, he's improved every single year. He didn't even have the most drops of the receiving core for the chargers last year.
43:23That was Lad McConkie. And you pointed out those.
43:26Lad stands don't want to hear that Tara. Yeah.
43:29They don't want to hear that. I mean, I think like coaches, if, if the coaches don't care about the drops, often fans care about it more.
43:37And I get it. Cause we're watching it. We want, you know, games to be one, you know, we don't like to
43:43see the passes dropped, but if the coaches, it doesn't bother them as much as it bothers us.
43:49It's not that deep. And then you brought up, you know, those, go ahead.
43:53No, the co I mean, speak to the coaches.
43:55Mike McDaniels tossing around some very high praise about comps for QJ so far for everybody out there.
44:01And if you have not seen this, it's worth a Google.
44:04It is 100%. And when we talk about coaches as well, um, again, that you can look and you can look at
44:11saying, I'm not going to draft somebody that drops passes.
44:14I guarantee there's a high probability. You will draft someone in the first round that has dropped more passes than Quentin Johnson.
44:20I promise you that because there are people up there that are dropping quite a bit of passes, but they're so talented.
44:27It doesn't matter. So you still get that usage.
44:29You pointed out the weeks one through four usage in the, in beyond as well.
44:34I think it's also important to point out, especially in that one through four time period, that was not as if he
44:40was operating as an anomaly and the only one producing Quentin or, uh, Keenan Allen also was having a strong performance over that time.
44:47So this is a situation where everybody can eat and it's possible that Quentin Johnston eats the most in the office.
44:54So we talk about all the positives here that are ahead for the Chargers offense.
44:58You got to apply those positives to Quentin Johnston as well.
45:01If you don't want to go as bold as wide receiver one, that's okay.
45:05But the value for his ADP is absolutely insane.
45:08Erickson, are you, are you a pro Quentin Johnston?
45:11Are you with us? So I've definitely been the last one to the Quentin Johnston party.
45:15Cause I've liked lad. I've also, I'm also a Trey Harris, Stan.
45:19So I'm still holding on. I mean, my prediction would have been like Trey Harris wide receiver one, which I don't think
45:26is possible, but very less likely to happen than either lad or Quentin, Quentin Johnston being the number one guy here.
45:32But you guys are made so many great points about him throughout the entire off season, whether it's been Debra, whether it's
45:38been you Tara, whether it's been Tom Stracken. I did his show last week and he was talking about Quentin Johnston as a breakout receiver.
45:46And all of these smart people are coming to the same conclusion.
45:49Maybe it's just something that I'm missing here with my blind spot.
45:53And I think that the Quentin Johnson drops thing is so real.
45:56Like people remember the bias against him because they see him drop these plays.
46:01And when he squeezes that long touchdown in the preseason game, your game, you're like, this is what happens when he does
46:07squeeze the ball when he does catch it. And so, yeah, I've moved him up pretty significantly in my rankings where it's
46:14not as high as you guys probably, but it's within striking distance.
46:17When I see him on the board, I try to snag him up because I think that he has a lot of upside for sure in this offense.
46:25Right. Worst case scenario, Chargers offense. I want pieces of that.
46:29He's at a palpable price. Yeah, he's beaten wide receiver 40 the last two seasons, and that's where his ADP is.
46:35So just based on that alone, he doesn't even need to, like you said, be a wide receiver, want a top 15 guy.
46:42He can still finish as a wide receiver too and pay off his cost at a very good rate.
46:47So, yeah, you guys. Can I also give a quick PSA to everybody that's going to the comment section right now to
46:54sit here and have to drop their drop jokes in here into the comments?
46:58I just want to quickly read off the leaders and drops amongst wide receivers real fast last year.
47:03And we can all just chime in and you tell me if these are bad or if they're good players.
47:09Amon Ross St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Ted Rowe McMillan, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Chris Alave, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Roma Dunze, Jamar Chase, Emeka Ibuka.
47:17That's your top 11 receivers in drops last year.
47:19Is that a list of bad players or good?
47:22It's a list of key targets right there. So we love the drops, apparently.
47:26I love it. I love it. Reading off the drops, exactly.
47:29Perfect. Perfect. Now we're going to go on to another one that people might because it's another one that feels a little
47:36controversial, but I feel like people are coming around more to this one, especially with the addition of Liam Cohen there.
47:42But there are some people that still are maybe not believers.
47:45So Erickson, talk to us about Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is going to win MVP and finish as the fantasy QB one overall this season.
47:53So I have wavered and moved my ranking so much with trying to figure out which quarterback I want.
47:59Again, we talk about how deep quarterback is this year and you can't go wrong, but ultimately one person is going to
48:05be right when it comes to, well, which late round quarterback did you draft?
48:09And was it the best one? Like last year, it was Drake May.
48:13And we nailed that one for the most part, even though there were other good late round quarterbacks, whether it was Bo Nix, whether it was Caleb Williams.
48:21Like there were a lot of good options last year, but the one answer that was correct was Drake May.
48:27And I want to be correct with this one.
48:30So I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence going all in on the Jaguars quarterback from week five onward.
48:36He outscored every single other player, not just quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends.
48:4023 points per game from week five onward. Overall, he finished the year top five fantasy points per game.
48:46He was number one in expected fantasy points per game, entering his second season with Liam Cohen.
48:51Cohen has just been raving about Trevor Lawrence and the growth that he's seen for him throughout this offseason.
48:56The thing that people don't know enough about Trevor Lawrence is when he had all of his guys healthy last year between
49:03Brian Thomas Jr., Jacoby Myers, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, 28 points per game.
49:07He was elite. He was borderline elite. And I'm sick of being gaslit into, well, he's not going to score as many running touchdowns again, Erickson.
49:14Dude, he's a weapon in the red zone, just like Josh Allen.
49:18Like they like to use him there because he's good at it.
49:22And if there's a chance that this Jaguars backfield is just mid, Bachelet doesn't take a step forward.
49:27Chris Roderick is a jag. Oh, what are you going to do?
49:30QB design runs for Trevor Lawrence in the red zone.
49:33Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns, because that's all he did last year.
49:36He had 38 total touchdowns trailing only Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford.
49:40The year before in Liam Cohen's offense, Baker Mayfield threw for 40 plus touchdowns in 2024.
49:45There was such a high ceiling for Trevor Lawrence in his second season with the amount of red zone usage that he
49:51gets as both a thrower and a rusher with all the weapons he has.
49:55Again, even if a guy goes down, no problem.
49:58We got depth. They got depth at receiver at a tight end all over the place.
50:03And worst case scenario, he can also use his legs, especially in the red zone.
50:07So I think that Cohen has talked about, again, highlighting how he likes using Lawrence's legs as a weapon in the red zone.
50:14So I think that's going to continue again. Nine rushing touchdowns last year only trail Josh Allen, who's usually the one that's always finishing as fantasy QB1.
50:22Trevor Lawrence has all the ingredients to be a fantasy QB1 and the fantasy QB1 in 2026.
50:27Trevor Lawrence quietly 11th in design carry share last year, fifth in red zone carries per game.
50:32So I'm not going to gaslight you, Erickson. I think you're onto something here.
50:36In Liam Cohen, we trust. It's like it's shocking that the rushing upside that we saw in college, like we saw it.
50:43I saw it with my own two eyes in college.
50:46I've seen it. I've seen it. And like where, you know, previous regimes just didn't utilize it effectively.
50:51Now we've got Liam Cohen. We all believe in him, right?
50:54So why would he not keep doing the thing that he knows works?
50:58He's going to. Wide receiver core so deep. They put their shiny, fresh top of the end draft pick on defense and said, I'm sorry, buddy.
51:06We're just too deep here. We can't use you in the receiving core right now.
51:10We might have to bring you along sometimes in little gimmicky special ways.
51:14Yeah. We sit here and argue over who's the wide receiver.
51:17Number one, that only leans into the upside for Trevor Lawrence because he faces those tough defenses.
51:23It's not a complete layup schedule, particularly at the beginning of the season.
51:26We talked about that. But it's so much easier when you don't have to worry about like your Seattle and you're hyper targeting JSN.
51:33You don't have to worry about that. You can avoid the difficult spots there and target what works for you.
51:39So I'm 100 percent on this and I'm glad you put in MVP because if it was just QB1, I'm not going to lie, Erickson.
51:47I would have been like, it's not bold enough.
51:49So I'm glad you put the MVP on there for us.
51:53I'm telling you, people are going to be all down the bandwagon when Trevor Lawrence does for five tighties against the Cleveland Browns defense in week one.
52:01There we go. Yes. Obsessed with it. All right.
52:03I'm just going to continue to break hearts and make people mad.
52:07My wild card bold prediction. You're not going to break my heart.
52:11I love this. There we go. Love this. All right.
52:14There we go. It is Jalen Coker averages more points per game in PPR than Tadaro McMillan.
52:19Yes, I had to put in that PPR caveat there.
52:22I would not have necessarily made this prediction earlier in the season because the expectation was that the arrival of Chris Brazel
52:28was going to open up opportunities for McMillan to get more creative and varied usage and play in the slot, get more
52:35consistent volume, to be able to counteract being in a low pass volume offense that just doesn't utilize McMillan to the best of his abilities.
52:42But unfortunately, Chris Brazel out for the season just kind of threw a wrench into that.
52:47And I see some mentions still of the increased slot work for Tadaro McMillan.
52:51And I think people are forgetting that that was directly tied to the emergence of Brazel as a trustworthy target on the outside.
52:58Xavier Leguette has unfortunately proven that he just can't be reliable.
53:01So the Panthers offense is set to repeat what the receiving core did last season with two caveats.
53:06Caveat number one is that Jalen Coker is actually healthy and will start the season as the wide instead of having to
53:13work his way back into the offense. And caveat number two, this should be, should have been a top 10 offensive line
53:19for the Panthers, unfortunately now dealing with a ton of injuries.
53:23So if the offensive line struggles to give Bryce Young time to throw, the result will be increased looks into the slot, which will belong to Jalen Coker.
53:31And Coker asserted himself at the end of last season, that upside that we saw, that's the real him.
53:37We just haven't been able to see it because unfortunately he's been dealing with health issues for the entirety of his career.
53:43But despite those health issues, they made sure to lock him into a contract.
53:47He has never had over 500 yards in a season because he has been unable to stay on the field, but he is healthy right now.
53:55They trust him. They wanted to lock him in as their wide receiver too.
53:59And if that is not a massive endorsement of faith, I don't know what is.
54:04Coker is literally a quarterback stream, extremely reliable hands, great route running.
54:07And again, I put the caveat of PPR because McMillan will probably have the edge on touchdowns.
54:12He's not disappearing. He's still going to be very involved.
54:15But unfortunately, the passes that he will get from Bryce Young will just be more volatile and a little bit more inconsistent in terms of the catch rate.
54:23And it'll just be easier for Coker to have the edge in receptions that will give him over the PPR hump.
54:30D-Bro, you were on board here. Cokeheads unite. Totally with this.
54:33And I threw this out, like I've said for the entirety of the offseason, the ADP discrepancy and disparity that exists between
54:39Teddero McMillan and Jalen Coker is astronomically insane to me.
54:42Both of these guys are going to catch passes from Bryce Young.
54:46Both of these guys are the clear number two, like one and two in the passing attack.
54:51And for everybody that thinks that there is no way that this could possibly happen at all.
54:56To your point, Tara, I kindly point them to last year, weeks 13 through 19.
55:00Teddero McMillan versus Jalen Coker. McMillan had an 18.3% target share.
55:04Coker had 20%. Teddero McMillan had 1.78 yards per route run.
55:07Jalen Coker had 2.3. Teddero McMillan had one red zone target.
55:10Jalen Coker had four. Teddero McMillan had a 26.1% first read share during that stretch.
55:15Jalen Coker, 28.3%. So I think there's a run out where this could be possible.
55:19I'm going out there and I'm not ranking Coker over Teddero McMillan.
55:23But I'm telling everybody that the discrepancy and their ADPs should not exist.
55:27That gap should be closed. Both of these guys are extremely talented.
55:30And again, for everybody that says there is no plausible path to this.
55:34Just look at last year over a large, like a sizable sample of games where Coker was outproducing McMillan.
55:40Yeah, it happened. The evidence was right in front of us in that beautiful playoff game where he just broke out and truly looked like he was ascending.
55:48We're just going to carry that right on through for him to finally cross our fingers.
55:53Stay healthy, buddy. That's all we need from you.
55:55Just stay on the field. And you got this.
55:58I should have put that into caveat as well as my bold prediction.
56:02You got to stay healthy, buddy. Eric said, are you team?
56:05I'm Jalen Coker. So I like the way that you guys phrase this argument towards being pro Coker, because I think that's
56:12really what you're trying to sell here is he's going too low in drafts.
56:16However, I don't feel like you need to do it at the expense of T-Mac.
56:20This guy is he won offensive rookie. Am I like forgetting that he won offensive rookie of the year last year?
56:26No, you're not forgetting that. I still have the cash in my pocket from winning those bets.
56:31Tedderoa McMillan is a superstar. He was he won this award with Bryce Young as his quarterback on an offense that finished
56:38bottom five and pass right over expectation. He was thrown into the fire from day one.
56:43They got to be the alpha. And he delivered.
56:45He was the most consistent rookie. And that's why he won the award last year.
56:50So I think that he's just scratching the surface on what he can do.
56:54So, again, I like that you guys want to be higher on Coker.
56:58And to your point, Debro, close the gap. Then move Jalen Coker up because I don't think we should keep moving T-Mac down.
57:05He's wide receiver 20 in his ADP. He was wide receiver 15 last year.
57:09And he's going to be worse because there's one other guy in the offense that can command targets.
57:14Who else is going to command targets in the offense?
57:17Tight ends. They use five different guys. Jonathan Brooks.
57:20So I think both guys can eat. I think that you should be into both of these players.
57:25They're facing the Bears in week one. Like T-Mac is going to feast.
57:29So I think that he's just being vastly underrated by the masses.
57:33So I like, again, draft both Panthers wide receivers.
57:35I have no issue with either of these guys.
57:38Last year on in-breaking routes, T-Mac seventh in yards behind guys like JSN, Puka, George Pickens, and St.
57:43Brown. All alpha superstar wide receivers. And when he got double digit targets last year, 18 fantasy points per game in those four contests.
57:50He got 126 targets last year. That was top 12 as a rookie.
57:54Over 1,100 receiving yards as a rookie with Bryce Young as his quarterback.
57:58I just think that you guys aren't being fair to the talent of T-Mac by bashing him.
58:03But I like the praise of Jalen Coker. So I love T-Mac.
58:07I just want to throw this out. But you don't though because you have a ranked wide receiver 26.
58:12So he's going to finish worse than he did last year.
58:16Yes, I have him lower because this is a Bryce problem and not a Tet problem.
58:20That's my only issue. But you love Jalen Coker even though he has the same quarterback.
58:25Yeah, because he's wide receiver freaking 52 in real time ADP right now.
58:29They're both undervalued. That's how I think it. I think they're both undervalued.
58:33I hear you. We don't want to hurt Tadaro McMillan's feelings.
58:36He's so talented. And I love Bryce Young. But man, got to get the ball downfield, buddy.
58:41We got to get him. But he's been good when they actually push volume.
58:45I just do not trust them to let him actually push a lot of volume.
58:50But again, you talk about it. Who else is catching the ball?
58:53We know it's not Xavier Leggett. It is a very narrow target funnel to only two guys and a couple of running backs.
59:00That is it. They don't throw to the tight ends by design.
59:04That's not even a talent issue because you could argue, well, Darren Waller, well, he can't sit on the field.
59:09But regardless, those Dave Canales offenses don't aggressively target the tight ends.
59:13It's just how it works. So yeah, it's a very near target tunnel right to those guys.
59:18So it's a very good point, Erickson. And quick PSA before your next draft, make sure that you are checking out the Fantasy Pros Draft Assistant.
59:26It gives you expert recommendations for every pick, real-time alerts, and even predicts which players could make it back to you.
59:32That is very key. And with Fantasy Pros Premium, you'll get help all season long with lineups, waivers, trades, and more.
59:38So start your free trial today at fantasypros.com slash free.
59:41That is fantasypros.com slash free. All right, that wraps things up for this show.
59:45Before we head out, make sure that you like this video and that you are subscribed to the YouTube channel and the podcast.
59:52You do not miss out on any of the fantasy football content that we got going on here as we close out
59:59draft season and head in season here. It's finally here, guys.
60:02So make sure that you are locked in. For Andrew Erickson, for Derek Brown, I'm Tara Roberts.
60:07Thank you for tuning in. We will see you next time.
60:10Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
60:13If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
60:22Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
60:27On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon.
60:30People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change
60:36exactly how we see these giants of our culture.
60:39We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes.
60:43I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives.
60:46Listen to Big Lives on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
60:51Hey, it's Alec Baldwin. This season on my podcast, Here's the Thing, I talk to actor Stephen Root.
60:56I'm a people watcher. You see that guy going down the drain, go, yeah, I can use that.
61:02And Open Igloo co-founder, Alia Mohammed. I love staying on top of what is going on in our city, what is on
61:08renters' minds, and taking all of that knowledge to build a platform that hopefully is going to make New York City better in the long run.
61:16Listen to Here's the Thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts.
61:19Or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Bobby Bones.
61:22Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday on our podcast, Lots to Say, with me, Bobby Bones, and Matt Castle.
61:29You're in training camp, and the rookie quarterback has one good throwing session in front of the media.
61:34Suddenly, everybody online says he should start over you week one.
61:37How do you handle this? You just go back out to practice the next day and wait for him to mess up.
61:44Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
61:51College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart.
61:55And that's why we make the Solid Verbal College Football Show.
61:58I'm Ty Hildenbrandt. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week, we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are going to ignite your group chat.
62:05And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again.
62:13Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
62:19This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
