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0:12Do not draft these players unless something crazy happens.
0:14These are six players that we're avoiding in drafts.
0:17I'm Chris Welsh, and welcome into FantasyPros. I've got Jake Seeley and Tara Roberts with me, who have picked six overrated players.
0:24There's always a little bit of space for players if something crazy happens, but based on where these guys are sitting in
0:31drafts, these are avoids that you two are out on.
0:34And you got some interesting names. We're going to be moving the landscape of quarterbacks to tight ends and lots of wide receivers.
0:41So, if you guys want to follow along, make sure you go and check out everything that we've got at FantasyPros.com.nfl.rankings If
0:47you want to see the rankings, that is what we are referencing.
0:51We're not going to waste any more time. Tara, you are going to kick us off.
0:56This player is a bust and you don't want him.
0:59Who is it? It's DJ Moore. I'm so sorry, buddy.
1:02He's got an overall ranking of 61 and wide receiver 28.
1:05My ranking is wide receiver 32, but honestly, I'm being generous if I'm being honest about that.
1:11And several rookies could easily surpass him in training camp.
1:14He would drop even more for me. Honestly, it's just there's no scenario in which I'm drafting DJ Moore.
1:19I'm not concerned that he is falling off a cliff.
1:22It's not that I'm not trying to insult him and say he got too old.
1:27I mean, playing a full 17 games and coming away with 50 receptions on 85 targets and six touchdowns is disturbing.
1:33Not gonna lie there. But the Bears were a weird setup from the get go with all of the additions that they
1:40made in terms of talented pass catchers there. So unfortunately, when I am looking at him transitioning to Buffalo, it doesn't get any better.
1:47Unfortunately, Josh Allen is a streaky passer and that's no insult to him.
1:51He can win games with less than 200 passing yards very easily.
1:55And I think part of the issue here is that we're underselling Joe Brady.
1:59Unfortunately, they're in that offense in terms of what he's doing.
2:03It's no coincidence that we have seen back to back seasons under Joe Brady as an offensive coordinator with less than 500 attempts.
2:10And while you would think it would logically increase with the addition of multiple pass catchers there, it doesn't have to just
2:17because they're adding Skylar Bell and DJ Moore does not mean that we are suddenly going to get this offense back up to 600 attempts.
2:24I don't think it's going to happen. I've seen a lot of references to what Stefan Diggs did in Buffalo.
2:30And I think we have to look at the actual timeline with that in terms of the success for Diggs, because Stefan
2:37Diggs absolutely did not succeed with Joe Brady when he was running the offense.
2:41As a matter of fact, fun little stat here, you can actually see the drop off in real time.
2:47Break it down to the exact moment that Joe Brady took over after the midseason firing of Ken Dorsey.
2:53There was a direct moment there where he was fired after the week 10 loss to Denver.
2:58Brady was the offensive coordinator week 11 through the end of the season.
3:02Diggs went from having just one game below 13 PPR points.
3:05That game was against that Denver team. And after that, Diggs had literally just two double digit fantasy point games and one touchdown.
3:12Green Bay gets the committee wide receiver slack. But honestly, Buffalo was the real offender here.
3:17I don't think that's going to change. I do not want a piece of it.
3:22Sadly, 61 overall and 28 at wide receiver and half PPR, according to fantasy pros ranks out on DJ more is Tara.
3:29Jake, your first player that you want no part of this year is at the quarterback position.
3:34So tell us what's Pat, which pass catcher is a hard pass for you.
3:38Pass thrower. I have a pass catcher. You get your tongue tied.
3:42I thought you were about to say the name, which is.
3:45He's like, I was like, wow, he's going to just throw out.
3:49I had a good alliteration going there. And then my brain shut down and I said pass catcher, but it's the pass
3:55pro Patrick Mahomes who might pop by the way.
3:58Like, I know we're sitting in this world where everybody's in the best shape of their lives, but we're also sitting here
4:05with the injury optimism part of the season where everybody's not Travis Kelsey, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes.
4:10You can go down the list. You can go down the list.
4:14Zach Charbonnet all of a sudden, like everybody's going to be healthy in week one.
4:18Like no, nobody's injury matters anymore. No, it doesn't matter.
4:21The fact that Patrick Mahomes was his knee was blown up at the end of last year and he's going to be fine for week one.
4:29Now, like I'll be shocked if I see it.
4:32But at the same time, this is also the peak Patrick Mahomes, not really around anymore.
4:37The 24 points per game, not really the thing anymore.
4:40And if you want to make the argument that Patrick Mahomes, I think he's better in our expert consensus ranks than he is in ADP.
4:48ADB has him going. I usually see somewhere between eight and ten.
4:51That's still a little bit too much for me.
4:54The expert consensus ranks, I'm at 13. Once we get outside the QB ones, if you want to make the argument for ceiling, I'm cool with it.
5:02I just think there's too many names in front of him, including where he goes overall in the running backs and wide
5:09receivers that are still on the board where I'm just not going to be taking Patrick Mahomes.
5:14And that's the thing. We could always sit here.
5:17You said it at the beginning of the show.
5:20We could always sit here and be like, at some point, if he falls far enough.
5:25Yeah, sure. Patrick Mahomes drops another two rounds. I'll take a flyer on him.
5:29But we're talking about what's happening right now. And what's happening right now is I just think there's way too much risk baked in.
5:36I would think there's way too much optimism that even if he is on the field, he's going to be himself.
5:43And part of himself is some of the rushing.
5:45I think that gets overlooked a lot of time.
5:48We're not talking 600 and 700 rushing yards and six or seven rushing touchdowns, but he chips in enough that they're already talking that early season.
5:56He's not going to want to do it and they're not going to let him do it as run for some touchdowns
6:03like he sometimes does because of his knee. So there's just a lot here where I'm like, maybe we only get Patrick Mahomes 18 points per game.
6:11Then he's like every single other high end QB too.
6:14And at that point, like, why are we doing it?
6:17It's really tough to when you look at ECR and you see the names below him.
6:22Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and you're playing this injury.
6:25What does the injury do upside to Patrick Mahomes versus those players?
6:29I mean, Matthew Stafford, like you look at what he did last year to where his ADP is and you're just like, huh?
6:36Like I could not agree with you more on this one.
6:39I'm a pretty firm out. There's there are circumstances.
6:42We're being a little dramatic. We're like it never did it.
6:46But sometimes, especially with higher end players, there are some circumstantial things that could I just don't see a scenario where I'm invested in Patrick Mahomes.
6:53You two are going to make some bold statements here on this one because your second players are two highly talked about wide receivers.
7:01So you guys are not holding back here. The second or the third overall of players that you are hard avoid.
7:07Tara, how about a first round wide receiver that you are saying?
7:11Absolutely not. Yeah, I wanted to go bold for you guys.
7:14I didn't want to undersell it and tell you to avoid someone in round 20.
7:19It is a purely a ranking issue. CD Lamb.
7:22I'm sorry, buddy. I'm not going to be drafting any of you.
7:25I like the Cowboys. I like CD lamb. So no offense to them.
7:29But lamb has an overall ranking. Oh, nine and wide receiver five.
7:33That is a hefty investment for a guy who essentially relinquished being the unquestioned wide receiver one of his team and is
7:40running it back with the same exact unit and the same exact offensive scheme.
7:44Now I to be fair, I do have lamb as ranked as my wide receiver five, right?
7:49Because I'm trying to be clear not being hypocritical here.
7:52Let me explain it. He's only ranked as the wide receiver five because the next nine guys being drafted after him.
7:59The only wide receiver without a quarterback issue or a legal contingency is him.
8:03Unfortunately, outside of again, George Pickens as well. His little his teammate there.
8:07So while I do have issues with Dak Prescott as an actual winner, I've got no issues with him in terms of
8:14the volume that I know he can put on the field.
8:17I trusted more than Kyler Burry, CJ Stroud, the combination of two, a tug of Aloha.
8:22So again, this is not a bad situation. It's just that he has a default ranking because it's tough to actually rank
8:28a guy like Drake London over him, knowing that we don't really know what the quarterback situation is.
8:34Lamb stats, unfortunately, last season did drop off significantly with the addition of George Pickens.
8:39Now he was dealing with an injury, right? We do have to take that into account.
8:43The defense, the decrease in targets that he had was a little bit misleading.
8:48There was only one. There was one game where he played less than 10% of snaps and then to replay less than 50% of snaps.
8:55So really, if you kind of segment it down in terms of his actual normal workload games, he still was averaging nearly 10 targets per game.
9:03That's fantastic. So there was no reduction in targets, but all things equal.
9:07We're just probably going to see him be a guy that can probably cap off as being at best a low end wide receiver one, right?
9:15That's best case scenario if George Pickens is on the field, which is fine, but we saw a significant decrease in touchdowns as well.
9:23He's a high volume receiver. He needs to be up there and that in terms of aggressive target range, aggressive touchdowns.
9:29And if he can't get that, unfortunately, it's not going to be a massive bus situation, but it is going to be disappointing for the upside of guys.
9:37You could draft around him who, if their quarterback situations do work out would just have much significant upside.
9:43Um, when we're looking at lamb last season, he didn't have a single top 10 performance in half PPR last season, but
9:50touchdown drop as well in terms of production was very concerning.
9:53I just don't feel comfortable drafting him where he is with George Pickens in the mix.
9:58You went bold and I bet that'll be a big conversation piece in the comments.
10:03I dig that one. I love, uh, love that you went bold here.
10:07Now, Jake, you are going with an actual pass catcher that I can actually say correctly this time, but you are not
10:14only picking a high name, but you, you are kind of sticking.
10:17I'm sticking with your theme of what you went with, with Patrick Mahomes.
10:21There's an injury tag. That's kind of attached to this a little bit.
10:25So I'm guessing that is going to hold some heavy weight, but you are a big old fat no go on Malik Neighbors for this season.
10:33So talk to us about it. Yeah. I feel like I'm doing two things is when I'm taking the layup here and
10:40then to, that's what that emotion was. Uh, two was the dog snuck in the picture because I lost the last show that you awarded to Tara.
10:48So I figured maybe if I get the dog in here, I can win this.
10:53I figured you, you should have had Barkley Saquon Barkley.
10:56It would have been like really appropriate to have the dog in the picture, but she's somewhere else right now.
11:02That one that popped in was Ziggy, the newer ones.
11:05So, uh, no football name with her. Oh, there's Barkley.
11:08But anyway, uh, like Malik neighbors feels like a layup, but I will say this, that the ADP is starting to drop, but it hasn't dropped enough.
11:16And that's why I want to still bring it up because he's still 16 at wide receiver.
11:21That's in front of Lad McConkie, Ibuka, McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Burden, Evans, McLaurin.
11:25I'm a going through names. I would take Waddle, probably Devante Adams, even DJ Moore.
11:30And Tara besmirched him to start the show. Christian Watson, who we finally got healthy and is the number one.
11:36And then all the rookies, like, what are we doing with Malik neighbors at this point?
11:41Like the one clip that we have anything of them is in limping to first base in that charity game that he played.
11:48And I know there's still time for him to get healthy, but there is so much talk and uncertainty that it's not
11:55just, is he ready to start the season? Is does he start the season on the pup?
12:00And then even if he doesn't, is this going to be like, you brought up Saquon Barkley.
12:05That's actually a really good name to throw into this.
12:08Remember years ago with Saquon Barkley took to the end of September to look like Saquon Barkley.
12:13And I'm not saying everybody wouldn't celebrate if you got Malik neighbors from October through December for the final 12 or 13
12:20games to be like, hey, I'm getting top 10 production.
12:23But that's a big if. And that's something you have to wait on where, again, I'm taking all those names so much
12:30so that like if it was four names, I'd be like, okay, if he slides four names, then I'll take them.
12:36That's not like really this is I need him to slide 12 just at wide receiver.
12:41I'm taking quarterbacks, taking Jane Daniels, Joe Burrow, like Drake May, taking them over him, taking tight ends over him, taking running backs over him.
12:49And that's the biggest thing he has to slide for rounds for me to be invested in Malik neighbors at this point.
12:55Can he be a wide receiver three to you?
12:58Or is that still asking too much? I'd be okay with that because the question you have to ask yourself is, are you prepared?
13:05Is your team prepared to have him sit on the bench for four weeks?
13:10That's the thing. Wide receiver three? Probably yes. If you're drafting as your two and you're throwing your two on the bench for four weeks, that's tough.
13:18Okay, that because I did a mock where I had him as my wide.
13:22It was a three wide receiver setup and he was my wide receiver three.
13:27But then I kind of went back and complimented more wide receivers and it's like that's maybe where you can take the case.
13:34But that's not what this is about. By the way, this is me trying to create this like happy scenario.
13:40The problem is, as you mentioned, you've got a super talented player that might miss a multitude of weeks that not might not be right soon.
13:48And he is sandwiched between a bunch of other really good picks that make your team great now.
13:53So is that upside of what could be actually worth passing up the Mecca egg Bukas and maybe the Jalen?
13:59Well, I kind of agree with you. I don't think so.
14:03So this is your toes into the Jaguars crew or even a doing say not no one's going on with his foot
14:09and he's going to have to play through this new norm like those kind of wires.
14:14Then you take neighbors because the upside is still top 10 and you can survive at that point.
14:20But if we're still talking about like McLaurins and the McMillans and the Bukas of the world, there's no way on earth I'm even thinking about that.
14:28All right. Final ones here. This is each of your last.
14:31So your third players. This is going to be number five and we are going to dive into the tight end market here.
14:38Tara, this tight end will have no spot on your roster.
14:42You are avoiding this tight end this year. And who is it?
14:45Yeah, I'm picking on the bill. Sorry. It is Dalton Kincaid.
14:49Those are the only two. I got no problem with Josh Allen and James Cook.
14:53Just FYI on that one. I guess, you know, I lied a little bit.
14:58He is pushing the double digit rounds there. But to be fair to me, he is a tight end.
15:03So I allow myself a little bit of leeway on that.
15:07He's ranked tight end 10. My ranking is 16.
15:09And honestly, you know, if I could move him back without looking crazy even further, I probably would.
15:15You might say it's good value for him. No, I can literally run through a list in terms of looking at the overall rankings there.
15:23If I can run through a list of 30 players being drafted after you very easily that I would take over than you.
15:30That's a major problem there. Quite frankly, again, I want to go lower here.
15:34I rarely do full aggressive fades. But this is one where the ADP cannot drop enough for me to invest into it.
15:41And I hate to pick up on Buffalo with this.
15:44But, you know, when we're looking at this offense again, we have to remember they upgraded the offensive coordinator to head coach.
15:50While we do have a new offensive coordinator coming in, this is still going to be the vision of Joe Brady here.
15:57So we know what this offense in Buffalo has been for multiple years now.
16:01And unfortunately, when we're looking at Dalton Kincaid, there is so much working against him.
16:06And we have seen just back-to-back struggle of seasons from him finishing his tight end 20 and tight end 30.
16:12His peak performance was as a rookie as tight end 11.
16:15And we are drafting him as a top 10 tight end on the hope of what he could theoretically be, which is
16:22a problem because the Bills have actually said that they could actually look at load management for Kincaid because the reason that
16:29he's had those tight end 20 and 30 finishes is because he's been playing through injuries for multiple seasons now.
16:35So we're not even guaranteed to get the workload that led him to those poor performances there.
16:40Again, we talk about the added pass catchers here and DJ Moore, Rookie and Skylar Bell.
16:45They still want Keon Coleman to get going. They added players.
16:48They didn't subtract anything. I don't see any benefit here for Dalton Kincaid to surpass what he has done in the past here.
16:55So best case scenario would be just outside of that.
16:58But even then, so logically, very unlikely for that to happen here.
17:02There's just way too much working against him for me to make the investment.
17:06One of eight overall tight end 10. We also have something when you check out the fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings.
17:13If you check out the rankings and half PPR, we also have a sentiment tab of upside and bust and four of five.
17:20So that's a high meter on the bust for for Kincaid and not very high on the upside.
17:25So that is between all of the rankers. There's a lot of bust potential out there, especially with the top 10.
17:32So I think rankings, despite there being tight in 10, are in a little bit of agreement.
17:37Final player. Jake, it is your third is the six of players that we're avoiding.
17:42It is the only running back that made the list here.
17:45This type of show seems like it would usually be filled with running backs.
17:49This is the only running back that's up there.
17:52Jake, you are out on which running back? Maybe I should change it to Barkley because I can't like she drew blood trying to get my attention.
18:00I saw you doing that. I was like, did you get bit or something?
18:04No, no. She's like, she got to get her nails trimmed.
18:08She was really upset about the Malik neighbors thing.
18:11And then I called her and she didn't, you know, I get the attention.
18:15So she was pulling at me, but maybe I should change it to Barkley.
18:19But now it's Travis Etienne. And because he changed his last name, that's all.
18:23No, it really comes down to the fact that like if what we assumed was going to happen, happened, then I'd be
18:30drafting plenty of Etchen or Etchen or however he wants.
18:33I like Etchen because go more with like the Cajun name of it.
18:37But and it's dissimilar, like it's dissimilar from Etchen.
18:40But anyway, it really goes down to Kamara is still there.
18:43We all assumed that Kamara was gone one way or another.
18:47He's still there at this point. It kind of feels like he's stuck there.
18:51And not that like he's a significant threat to Etchen.
18:54But we're talking about the fact that he just finished 14 and points per game.
18:58And he's being drafted as the 15th running back now with the Saints, which let's be honest, we could be really optimistic
19:05about the Saints outlook after last year and say, wow, they did more than we shucked it more than we thought.
19:12This offense did more than we thought. They're stock up.
19:15You know, they're looking much better. I don't know.
19:17It's still the Jaguars. The Jaguars offense was everything we hoped it could be under Cohen and more.
19:23And it's not like Tootin. We talked about him on another show.
19:27It's not like Tootin was siphoning away that much to say that, oh, all of a sudden it's going to be such
19:33a better scenario on his touches per game. If Kamara was gone, I'd feel better.
19:38But Kamara, Neal, and whoever, whether it's Neal or Miller behind him, I just don't know the workload is going to be there.
19:45And what if the efficiency takes a little bit of dip because now he's on the Saints and not on the Jaguars?
19:52So it's just a lot of ifs where just, no, I don't want Etienne, Echan, Etienne, whatever you want to call him.
19:58As the 15th running back off the board where I could still get Kyron Williams, I still can get, I'll take all
20:05the Williams, Javante, Kyron Williams, Josh Jacobs situation, Scadaboo running through walls, David Montgomery with the Texans.
20:10I'm going to keep going down the list. The Henderson, Bucky Irvin, if I knew he was healthy.
20:16And then shout out to another show. I'd even take Judkins from what Tara brought up on the other show.
20:22So if we knew he's 100% for week one, too, let me throw that if out there.
20:27And I think there's a real conversation in my mind of whether I want his former teammate in Tootin.
20:33And that's the point. If I'm going to push him down that far to a fringe RB2, then he's not going to
20:40end up on any of my teams. Are these guys disasters?
20:43Are you out on drafting Patrick Mahomes, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Neighbors, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, or Travis Etienne, Etienne?
20:49Agree with me and Ziggy. Yeah, whatever you want to do.
20:52Are you out on these players? You can drop the comments below because those are six players that both Jake and Tara say they are out on.
21:00These are busts for the coming year, especially based on what you're looking at for ADP.
21:05If you guys want to play around with some of these players and how you're going to draft them and how you're
21:12going to create the proper sheets for your draft season, then you can avoid these players easily by going in and making
21:19a cheat sheet on the cheat sheet creator. The cheat sheet creator is your personal guide to perfect league-specific rankings.
21:25Visualize your path to victory as you add tiers, tags for your busts, breakouts, sleepers.
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21:35You can go and sync your league and enter your draft with confidence using the cheat sheet creator at fantasypros.com.
21:41That's fantasypros.com. Or go to the Fantasy Pros app and start drafting today.
21:45Without these players, though. These are not the guys that you want.
21:49There you go. These six players are the bust and they are avoiding.
21:53But are you? We're going to hear from you guys.
21:56Excited to do it. For Tara and Jake, I'm Chris Welsh.
21:59Thank you so much for hanging out with us.
22:02And we will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
22:06Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
22:09If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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