This Is Why the Patriots Traded for AJ Brown 🔴🔵
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 2, 2026
Published
Tue, June 2, 2026
6
Player insights
2
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownJaylen Waddle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeInjury0:19
Brown has medical concerns with his knees that have been reported for a couple of years and could potentially derail the end of his career quicker than typical for a stud wide receiver.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:21
Brown is projected as a top 10 NFL wide receiver but closer to 10th overall rather than the top 5 ranking he held two years ago, representing a significant tier drop.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:21
On tape from last season, Brown doesn't move the same way and corners were in his back pocket more often, suggesting he no longer has the same 25-year-old alpha athlete ability to run away after the catch.
Insight pageNegativeUsage0:22
Brown's yards after the catch ability declined last season when trying to split defenders, though he still made some acrobatic plays and tracked the ball well.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:22
Brown is projected as wide receiver 13 in real-life NFL rankings, a tier down from his previous standing, making it difficult to add him in fantasy when paired with an MVP-caliber quarterback in his third season.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue0:19
Waddle was acquired by the Broncos for first, third, and fourth round picks and is 19 months younger than A.J. Brown but considered a tier below him, suggesting Denver may have overpaid for the market.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00It finally happened. A.J. Brown is a New England Patriot. Let's talk to through the details because that is the last thing that we finally needed here as it
0:09is June 1st. From Adam Schefter and every other one of your favorite insiders, what the New England Patriots are trading to the Eagles includes a 2028
0:21first-round pick and 2027 fifth-round pick. So, Hayden, we know from contractual reasons A.J. Brown was not going to get moved until today,
0:30June 1st, but this isn't even a 2027 first-round pick, it's a 2028. Your instant reaction is what?
0:37>> I think this is about right. This is less than what the Jaylen Waddle trade was, which was a first-rounder for for
0:43this year, and I think that Waddle and A.J. Brown, if you start looking at the contracts, it's about right. And for the
0:48Eagles' perspective, because Howie Roseman, deservedly so, has the longest runway in professional sports to be the GM, he's just trying to maximize the
0:57most return he can get, which means extending this out to all the way to 2028. So, this is like our second NBA
1:03type of trade we've had with the Myles Garrett one and A.J. Brown. It's not just superstars, but how we kind of get
1:09there is getting a little bit more up-to-date versus what we've had in the NBA. So, that's really exciting for us. For A.J. Brown, there's no more
1:19excuses with the attitude. We'll find out if this was a decline or if this was just a bad scheme. You're going to see
1:25more crossing routes in this offense, more downfield shots. We'll get into some of the details there. This is just it's a relief more than anything to me.
1:33>> Yeah, the decline showed up in the numbers last season. I mean, you can look from yards per route run, if you want to,
1:40down to a career low 1.96 last season.
1:44Uh previously, it was well above that. I mean, multiple seasons of 2.6, 2.7 yards per route run, and even yards after the
1:52catch per reception, that was down to 3.3. So, we're going to take this from multiple angles, right? We're going to look at it from the Patriots first and
1:59then also talk about the Philadelphia Eagles and where they kind of move forward here with their offense. Let's first talk about this from the Patriots
2:06end. I think it's easy to ask what they're getting here. I think the answer is also quite easy. I mean, Drake May
2:14not just last season, but the year before that was, if you combine the two, one of the most explosive downfield throwers in the league. And then last
2:21year, he had the fifth highest success rate of all quarterbacks. So, it's a nice mix of Oh, we're going to take
2:26these deep downfield shots when we get single high and the vertical passes.
2:29Uh but also, he can move the chains in a variety of ways. And that was with, again, this past season, Hunter Henry,
2:36a declined Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte making him one of the best deep threats in the league. And so, you go and add
2:43Romeo Doubs in free agency, and now you add this version of A.J. Brown. So, what elements to really progress Drake Maye's
2:52game does A.J. Brown bring to the table on paper?
2:54>> Yeah, it was just Drake Maye, like you said, was like the most accurate downfield passer. His completion percentage over expected on these
3:0110-plus air yard passes was much better than Jalen Hurts was. He was just way more accurate. He's more willing to throw the ball down the field. He can
3:07buy more time and throw on the run uh even better than Jalen Hurts can, who wants to kind of just like throw the
3:12ball out of bounds when he's rotating right. I think for schematic-wise for A.J. Brown, he was kind of in this like
3:18stuck, static X receiver role with the Eagles. And they ran a lot of hitches this last year, where I think the
3:26McDaniels offense can be a little bit more modern, not like a ton of motion, but maybe we see him inside the slot a
3:32little bit more, more downfield opportunities, where I thought last year, at least early on when he was dealing with that hamstring injury, we
3:38weren't getting the same level of go go routes and go efficiency that we typically have when A.J. Brown was like literally the best downfield receiver in
3:44the game. I think he's probably more of a tier two guy than a tier one guy, just watching his tape this morning. He
3:51wasn't able to like turn the corner necessarily after the catch. We see some of the after the catch stuff uh kind of
3:55take a hit. That said, I do think that in a better offense and when he's just like going back to the coach that he
4:02loves and he's going to love Drake May, obviously, I wouldn't be surprised if the effort gets a little bit better and
4:07he's healthy right now, not dealing with that hamstring injury that he had last year, and all of the sudden, he looks a
4:12lot better after the catch uh going into a better environment than what he had in an outlier bad season for him, which by the way, he was still the
4:20wide receiver 15 in fantasy in a bad season.
4:24>> There's some other elements and chat, let me know if my mic is is better now.
4:27Hey, let me know as well. There's some elements of AJ Brown and his history with the Patriots here coming out of
4:32college. He wanted to be drafted by the Patriots. He wanted to be coached by Bill Belichick and obviously his history with Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee
4:39Titans. And we all know the photo / video of when Jon Robinson traded away AJ Brown and Mike Vrabel's reaction to
4:47it. So, you have that element, right? A personal connection, which it seems like personal connections matter a lot with AJ Brown at at this point. I mean, one
4:56reason why he wanted to go to Philadelphia was because of his relationship with Jalen Hurts and that seems to have deteriorated over the last
5:02couple seasons. And that might be minimizing it. Um overall, though, it wasn't just like, "Hey, Jalen Hurts declined when the Eagles offense declined and the running
5:13game declined." You and I would isolate AJ Brown's tape just as an overall wide receiver and he, you know, took multiple steps back.
5:25His game kind of came down to this season to me being more of like a a power forward. I'm going to win in
5:31one-on-one situations, as we saw against the Rams. And that is like more of a high variance needle compared to, you know, just being a dominant physical
5:40specimen who could win after the catch, run after the catch, work over the middle of the field. Like you even go
5:45and look at it, the the game against the Chiefs, I thought he got bodied around.
5:49He was lackadaisical in allowing defensive backs to beat him to the catch point like way too often. His blocking was extremely suspect on screens or
5:58running plays or any of that stuff. So, I'm I'm a bit nervous that we have like seen the cliff, like seen the edge here for
6:06AJ Brown. Hopefully not, but uh we're talking about someone who what is about to turn 30 years of age uh here at the
6:12end of June.
6:13>> Yeah, I think with AJ Brown, I was really concerned in September and that was when he was coming off that injury
6:19and I do wonder like by the middle of the season, he kind of went on a run after he came back and I think it was
6:23like week eight and I thought he did look a lot better at that point. So, I'm hoping that last year was more about the
6:29context of this injury plus the just like I thought there was just not a lot of energy to his game and hopefully now
6:36that they're back in the mix and he's got a I think a a play designer that wants to get him the ball. Uh I think we
6:42should probably see AJ Brown take a step forward.
6:45>> Just real quick on Josh McDaniels. He had a couple wild seasons with Davante Adams. He had 180 targets and then 175
6:52targets in the one and a half seasons that he had with Davante Adams. Davante Adams and AJ Brown, even though they're
6:57stylistically different, they do play the same exact role here. So, I would not be surprised if the targets in general for AJ Brown goes way, way up.
7:07Uh and last year the Patriots had like 40-plus yards per game more than the Eagles did. Uh they're a little bit
7:12faster, a little bit more pass-heavy, they're a little bit uh more aggressive putting the ball down the field and I would just guess that McDaniels going to
7:19be a lot more creative than what the Eagles had last year. So, in terms of fantasy, I think this is going to be a win for AJ
7:25Brown. I'm actually wanting to buy the dip. Uh I hear you on some of the effort and some of the turning the corner and a
7:32more power forward to his game. That's also just versus AJ Brown when he was in the mix as like the best wide receiver
7:38in the game. I have him as my wide receiver nine. I wouldn't be surprised if he played like the wide receiver nine
7:44and I think that this offensive environment is definitely a step up versus the one that he had with the Eagles even though they're winning Super
7:49Bowls just because in the red area they're still run heavy. They were beating teams by so much over that that history where the fourth quarter the
7:56production wasn't there. They were so balanced on offense where I just think that they're just going to be more dropbacks available for A.J. Brown and I
8:03think hopefully this up and down nature becomes a little bit more steady here.
8:08>> I mean look at that coaster. Look at that coaster on the right side and that's only about halfway through through the season. You and I just
8:15talked about like the eight most disgusting picks in fantasy football right now. I nearly made the case of DeVonta Smith needing to be drafted
8:24ahead of A.J. Brown. And since that show Hayden, A.J. Brown has only climbed in in drafts. Uh they were going right next
8:32to each other in terms of wide receiver picks. A.J. Brown is now ahead of Malik Davis which we understand, Chris Olave
8:38and Rashee Rice. Um so are you comfortable taking A.J. Brown at the end of round two at this two three turn
8:46territory?
8:47>> I have him ranked 21st overall in my half PPR ranking is like specifically built for Underdog Fantasy. I I think
8:52the the tiebreaker on like why cuz you can make a pessimistic case for A.J.
8:56Brown like relative to the cost here or like the optimistic case. I do think the Josh McDaniels stuff with with DeVante
9:01Adams should matter and I do want to keep looking at Drake May was almost the MVP in his second freaking season and
9:08his upside is all the way through the roof. And like you said, he was doing that Kayshon Boutte was a very effective
9:13player in this off. Mack Hollins was one of the most efficient wide receivers in the Are we thinking that these guys are
9:18beating a bunch of man coverage? I think I didn't really like the Kayshon Boutte tape last year but I do think that even
9:24if A.J. Brown is no longer in the Ja'Marr Chase conversation, could he be in you know the Chris Olave conversation? And like if Chris Olave
9:32was on the Patriots, we'd be drafting him easily in the second round here. So I think you know, back on the same page.
9:39Remember the the the last Titan season was not very good. The next season on the Eagles when he feel fresher, AJ
9:45Brown went absolutely crazy and I would not be surprised if in a new environment he feels energized and all of a sudden
9:51we're back to where we were.
9:53>> Yeah, I mean it's interesting like the counting stats. If you just look overall over the last 2 years for AJ Brown, they
9:58are somewhat similar in that 81 versus 79 catches, over 1,000 yards and over 1,200 and then seven touchdowns and nine touchdowns. So
10:07again, like just the box score, you can't see much of a difference, but hey like the week-to-week aspect of it, you
10:12felt it. Like you really noticed a difference to the point where there were weeks where I didn't even want to start AJ Brown just because of like some
10:20real bottoming out you know, momentum he had, but then you have the opposite end of that where at times it felt like no one had a higher
10:29ceiling. So I think I'm going to be somewhere in the middle and most importantly, I think you're going to get a level of consistency from AJ Brown
10:37this season that we just did not get from him in that version of the Eagles offense where it felt like they couldn't
10:43even support like one bonafide fantasy starter every single week.
10:48>> Yeah, totally true. I just think that's the nature of being a really good having a really good defense and having Jalen
10:53Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Like there's just some game environments where they wouldn't have to drop a drop back all that much. I
10:59I also think like a big part of this is just like how good DeVonta Smith was and like DeVonta Smith should have like a
11:04very similar target share to AJ Brown and now AJ Brown's competing with we like Romeo Dobbs. We don't think Romeo Dobbs is DeVonta Smith and obviously
11:12what that means for Smith's side of this too.
11:13>> So let's talk through that. If you are okay with the price tag of wide receiver 10 for AJ Brown, I think I can
11:19easily make the case that DeVonta Smith is going to score more fantasy points than AJ Brown this season and you are,
11:28you know, getting him a half round later. I mean, again, there were moments last year where you and I were ranking
11:33these wide receivers and we were simply saying in the same offense, Devonta Smith looks like a superior player. He looks like the better player and I
11:41understand that we're going to get a whole new offense this season in Philadelphia. Sometimes that doesn't work as we got with Petulo and we got
11:48with Brian Johnson. But when it does work, when the play caller becomes a future head coach like we got with Shane
11:54Steichen and like we got with Kellen Moore, maybe that is going to be the case with Sean Mannion and he can pull
12:01out and force Jalen Hurts into some uncomfortable throwing situations. And when that that is the case and most importantly, this running game gets back
12:09to what it was previously, then that forces defenses to play single high looks, forces one-on-one situations on the outside and then that gives Devonta
12:19Smith like legit top 10 wide receiver potential here.
12:23>> Yeah, I I think that low-end wide receiver one outcomes are definitely possible with Devonta Smith. He's my wide receiver 11. I have him ahead of
12:29ADP by a couple spots here. Obviously, he's stock up without A.J. Brown. It's a really small sample size. The game of
12:34There's only five games here where A.J.
12:36Brown has missed since Devonta Smith's rookie season. In those five games, he's the wide receiver three in yards per game. He's the wide receiver 10 in
12:45targets per game right next to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, all the guys that are drafted in the top 15 overall. Devonta Smith is now
12:5332nd in Underdog ADP. So, there is an upside case to be had with Devonta Smith. A.J. Brown over the years was the
13:01wide receiver 14, 16, eight, and wide receiver nine as the number one. I would say it's unlikely that Quez Watkins is
13:08as good as Devonta Smith at least in this season. So, Devonta Smith should have career highs across the board in target share and all that. Plus, we have
13:17the Sean Mannion factor here where maybe they just pass the ball a little bit more. Maybe they play a little bit more
13:24fast just in terms of their pace. Maybe they move them inside and out more, motion, screens, all that type of stuff
13:30that we didn't historically get from DeVonta Smith. Maybe you see a different version of this offense and then meanwhile, there's I think a very clear
13:38like wide receiver two fantasy floor here just because DeVonta Smith is so good at football. So, I want to buy him.
13:44>> So, if we have been, you know, drafting DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown when they were teammates as both top 14, top 15 wide receivers if
13:53not even higher than that, should Mecole Hardman go through this summer being selected as the wide receiver 36? And if not, where should he
14:01be selected?
14:02>> I fear that Mecole Hardman's going to get drafted really aggressively here. I love Mecole Hardman at USC. Um I do just
14:10want to keep reiterating that DeVonta Smith like last year was like the wide receiver 30 on a per game basis and we
14:15viewed DeVonta Smith as a like borderline top 10 real-life talent. Mecole Hardman has a lot to prove before we consider him
14:23anywhere near there. And there's also like the potential that Mecole Hardman who was mostly a slot receiver at USC kind of gets pigeonholed in ways that
14:30aren't really effective for fantasy. So, I have him as my wide receiver 41. I would love him to to park him on my
14:36bench in fantasy. My fear is that he's going to be drafted as a wide receiver three and he can pay that off, but those
14:44projections are there. 650 yards in the pick 'em lobby, that is not typically like the a wide receiver three outcome.
14:49That's more bench player, start him during your bye weeks. That's kind of my expectation here. I mean DeVonta Smith was the wide receiver 35 in usage last
14:56year. Like that's like to me like a good case scenario for Mecole Hardman. That's the starting point at ADP. So, right now
15:03I'm I'm a little light on him.
15:05>> So, if we were to continue on with this, you know, slight pessimistic take on Mecole Hardman, do you have a fear that drafters out
15:13there might now double count that A.J.
15:16Brown is no longer on this team?
15:19Because, yeah, if, you know, we all pay attention to the news, we all read the reports over the last couple months that
15:25A.J. Brown has been off this roster since that time. So, Quez Watkins wide receiver 36 price tag should, you know, incorporate, should
15:33feature that A.J. Brown is already off this roster. But, how this kind of works, Hayden, it could easily turn into Quez Watkins now climbing up around just
15:42because this news hit.
15:44>> Yeah, I mean, Cornell Tate and Jordan Addison go around and a half ahead of Quez Watkins like would it be that
15:50surprised if that if that got pretty tight in general just cuz you have Cornell Tate on the Titans and then Jordan Addison
15:56in a projectively a little bit worse offense behind Olave is pretty similar situation to Quez Watkins. So, yeah, I think that just in general like Alec
16:06Pierce's projection if you click on him, I think it's almost 1,000 yards and then Quez Watkins who's drafted right next to
16:11them, his projection is 650 yards. So, like I think that's where the projections don't necessarily make sense and obviously Best Ball world try to
16:20back weight production here, especially in redraft leagues you can draft three wide receivers, have Quez Watkins on your bench.
16:26I just think that just looking at the history of the Eagles offense, it's been struggle city to make sure that DeVonta
16:31Smith and A.J. Brown have been every week starters when they're winning Super Bowls and now we have a rookie who's kind of a slot guy on a team that we
16:39don't expect to win Super Bowls. I think it's a little bit more difficult for me now to make the math work at these
16:45prices.
16:46>> Yeah, I mean, both if both have been, you know, fancy assets for you in the top 10 in the top 12 in the past,
16:54it's been by breaking models cuz their talents have been so good. Like the expected fancy points are rarely there for both to be, you know, top 15 wide
17:02receivers. However, the talent allows them and, you know, how this offense is played in terms of downfield shots kind of allows them to do that. Is there
17:09anything else from a fancy football lens or true football lens that you want to get through with this conversation before I kind of head into the
17:17compensation, how these things have kind of gone down the last month or two.
17:21>> Yeah, I think that Dallas Goddard also we should like include him. He's going to be very real in the mix here. And
17:26then it's going to be this rotation between you know, Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown and those type of guys for like the last
17:33spot. I I think those guys are all draftable, but they're not going to be projected starters. I think like the real step is is Keishawn Boutte going to
17:40get traded away because they have Kyle Williams and Romeo Doubs. They want to >> He's been away from the team kind of
17:46during these OTA portion, correct?
17:48>> Yeah, so like that could be like one of the next shoes to drop. Is it Kyle Williams? Is it Keishawn? Or is this
17:53going to be some situation where they like all these guys and it's going to be rotation. Remember Stefon Diggs had I
17:59thought a pretty quality season. If you look at the metrics per route, per target, was an excellent season for Diggs. He was a part-time player.
18:06There's no way that you trade this comp compensation for AJ Brown to become a part-time player. But for the rest of
18:11these cats, like they want Mac Hollins a blocking stuff.
18:14Uh, I think there's going to be some difficulties trying to figure out who's even going to be on the football field
18:17enough to matter in fantasy for for the Keishawn tier and maybe a trade in the next couple months here would make that
18:25a lot easier to figure out.
18:26>> Just overall, I think this is the best case scenario for AJ Brown at this point in his career. Lining up with Drake May,
18:34lining up with Josh McDaniels to hopefully get back to 90, 80% of your best seasons with the Eagles and with the Tennessee Titans. And if any
18:44environment can do that, I I I do think like the the New England Patriots in this format can do it. Okay, I want to
18:50bring your attention to Jeff McLane who long-time beat writer for the Philadelphia Eagles. So I thought had a really nice post on this. Um, if the
18:58return for AJ Brown is straight up a 2028 first-round pick, which it basically is, plus a 2020 what? 7th fifth.
19:05Um, then it would come two draft cycles after the parameters of a deal between the Eagles and the Patriots were likely
19:10set. That's quite a drop in compensation if the initial asking price as I had heard it was a first and second rounder.
19:17Some of that seemed posturing, but the Rams are really the only other serious suitors as we know that went by the
19:22wayside very early on in free agency.
19:24Brown was coming off a down season, has medical concerns with his knees, and requires some maintenance off the field.
19:29He's still also highly regarded around the league as many who vouch for him for his character and leadership. The Eagles will save money by moving him a
19:36significant $130 million in cash.
19:39There's also dead money charge, blah blah blah.
19:41If it's not apples to apples, but if you look at the most recent trade for a top wide receiver, Broncos gave up first,
19:46third, fourth picks for Jaylen Waddle.
19:49Waddle's 19 months younger, but he's a tier below Brown. Perhaps Denver overpaid, but that's the market. Should be conceivably help the Eagles. My
19:55question to you Hayden is if there was really only one suitor in the end for the Eagles, and they were going to get rid of him no
20:02matter what, uh did the Patriots just get like a great value on this? Like did that entire time drive down the conversation and the
20:13compensation because the Patriots were kind of only negotiating against themselves?
20:19>> I think that's somewhat fair. I think that the part that kind of gets overlooked is this knee stuff because it's been a couple of years since we've
20:24had the reports that A.J. Brown's had some like knee concerns, and maybe that it could like kind of derail like the
20:31end of his career a little bit quicker than we typically see with stud wide receiver. So, that's the part where we're just not privy to that information
20:39at the same level that the Eagles and Patriots would at this point. So, I think that makes like the long-term appeal of this a little bit harder to
20:45dissect, but that was like the first thing I was looking up is the Jaylen Waddle compensation versus A.J. Brown, and teams typically discount uh rounds per
20:54year and into the future. So, this is almost like a second-rounder in total value uh for for A.J. Brown.
21:03Um and I I do think that's buying the the on a player who I think for the next at least couple years I should provide
21:09like a really high ceiling here. I think that he he is not the same player, but he's still like if I was doing top 10
21:15NFL wide receiver rankings like in real life like he would be very much in the mix for me. Probably closer to like 10th
21:21overall rather than where 2 years ago we were making that list like you're not naming four or five.
21:26>> Agree with the last point. I don't know.
21:28I even was watching a lot of his key plays from last season before hopping on here.
21:34He just doesn't move the same.
21:36And again, I don't know if that's just an effort and getting ready for the season and you know, let's get healthy through training
21:42camp and if he does he can get back to his top 10 form because you know, wide receivers are still successful during this portion in this
21:50age of of their career, but I guess I had a few more negative takeaways from from his stuff on tape last year. Like
21:57it it it felt at times that corners were like just in his back pocket just running routes for him more often than
22:03they previously did. And then you don't have necessarily that 25-year-old alpha athlete as as you previously did especially like to run away once you do
22:11catch the football.
22:12>> Yeah, I think like that was like to me like the one thing is the yards after the catch when he catches it and he's
22:16like trying to split defenders and stuff like didn't necessarily have that fully, but he was still making some pretty acrobatic plays. He had a couple focus
22:24drops but really for the most part was still tracking the ball I thought pretty well. So yeah, we'll see on him. Just looking at this
22:30he'll probably be like wide receiver 13, you know, if I was kind of like ranking these guys like in real life and that's
22:36that's a tier down from where it was, but >> Yep.
22:39>> it's hard to you know, add the wide receiver 13 in the NFL when you're >> It really is.
22:44>> MVP quarterback is going into his age threes or his third season in the NFL.
22:49Like to me I don't want to get too pessimistic here cuz like if you like kind of zoom out it's like all right, MVP caliber
22:55quarterback adds stud wide receiver like this thing can go crazy.
23:00>> All right, my software is malfunctioning. So it's time to get out of here.
23:03Thanks everyone for tuning in. We already did one of these videos on Myles Garrett. So, hopefully you go back and watch that one. June 1st is now a pillar
23:11day in the NFC NFL off-season calendar.
23:15And so, hopefully many, many more times ahead. So, shout out to all of you for watching. Hit subscribe. Leave a thumbs
23:21up. Let's try to get to 1,000 thumbs up for this video. 1,000 likes this video.
23:25And we'll talk to you in the next one.
