Rich Hribar's 5 Favorite Fantasy Football Picks
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
43 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 27, 2026
Published
Wed, May 27, 2026
40
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Malik WillisJustin HerbertChristian WatsonTucker KraftAnthony RichardsonBaker MayfieldBo NixBrock BowersChigoziem OkonkwoColston LovelandDavid NjokuDerrick HenryGeorge KittleIsaiah Likely
Player analysis
Player insights
Anthony Richardson
NegativeBust0:40
Anthony Richardson's draft performance is cited as a cautionary example of overpricing young quarterbacks based on perceived upside.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection0:40
Baker Mayfield is being drafted ahead of Malik Willis despite Willis having superior advanced metrics.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveUsage0:18
Nix had 669 dropbacks (most in NFL) but was only hit 71 times, providing context for how brutal Herbert's situation was with 129 hits on 9th-most dropbacks.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection0:26
Bowers is one of the top three tight ends from a talent perspective, but there's a concern that the Raiders' run-oriented philosophy may limit his raw route participation.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveSleeper0:32
Okonkwo is drafted about two rounds later than Isaiah Likely and the analyst likes him as well. While he's the worst run-blocking tight end in the NFL, he has a similar profile to Harold Fannon (a terrible run blocker on a pass-heavy team) and should be a top target on the Commanders.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection0:10
Watson is severely underpriced at WR28-29 despite being hyper-efficient; he posted 7th in yards per route run and WR13 in air share from weeks 8-17 last season, with three years of 2+ yards per route run and WR15 ranking since entering the NFL.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:11
With Romeo Doubs and Dontavian Wicks gone, Watson should be on the field all the time in the Packers' base offense, as he's the only remaining receiver likely to run 50%+ of drop backs after Wicks' trade and Jaden Reed's limited role (only 8 career routes in 1-2 WR sets).
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:12
Watson has missed multiple games every year of his career, creating volatility similar to Jameson Williams, though he's currently healthy at age 27 and could simply have experienced bad injury luck.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:14
Watson's out routes jumped from 7.7% of targets in his first three seasons to 35% last season, providing more gimme plays and lower aDOT opportunities that add baseline production to his explosive upside with Jordan Love.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection0:26
Loveland is one of the top three tight ends from a talent perspective with upside, but the Bears' run-oriented philosophy may limit his raw route participation despite his talent.
Insight pageDavid Njoku
PositiveValue0:24
Njoku is a late-round option who could soak up touchdown production or benefit from injuries or increased two-tight-end usage in the Chargers offense.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveUsage0:35
Henry ran for significant yardage in the game where Malik Willis had his highest drop-back rate (75%), indicating the Packers' game script in that matchup.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveInjury0:31
Kittle's early-season status is uncertain coming off injury, creating some risk for early-season production.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveSleeper0:29
Likely is one of the analyst's favorite later-round tight end options. He goes after Neighbors but ahead of other Ravens receivers, positioning him as a potential lead or second target on the team, which historically correlates with TE1 finishes.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveUsage0:36
Daniels is second in scramble rate over the past two years behind Malik Willis, indicating he has significant rushing upside.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeRole0:11
Reed has only run 8 career routes in 1-2 wide receiver sets and his role extension is uncertain, making him less likely to see significant playing time compared to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveInjury0:35
Jacobs left the game against Baltimore with an injury, which contributed to Malik Willis having a 75% drop-back rate in that contest.
Insight pageJustin Fields
NegativeBust0:40
Justin Fields was drafted as QB1 last year despite changing teams twice, and the market has since become burnt on him due to overpricing based on his rushing ability.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection0:17
Herbert is the player with the largest gap between Reeves' rankings and ADP, ranked as a top-10 QB despite going later, because he's set up to score a lot of fantasy points this season.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:17
Herbert was hit on 129 dropbacks last year (9th in NFL in total dropbacks), leading the NFL in hits, while dealing with injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joe Thuney (6 games), creating a brutal situation.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:18
Herbert's offensive line situation should improve significantly; the Chargers' most-used OL combination was on field for only 16.5% of snaps (lowest in NFL), and Bradley Bozeman and Zion Johnson are no longer on the team, suggesting better protection ahead.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:19
Herbert averaged 0.56 fantasy points per drop back with Alt on the field and 0.43 without him, a difference between QB7 and QB21 on the season. With Mike McDaniel's coaching system, which has produced elite efficiency from quarterbacks, Herbert is positioned for significant upside.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:22
The analyst believes Herbert is a guy to bet to win MVP this year and will score a ton of points, with the sky being the limit for him in the improved Chargers offense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:37
Justin Herbert is characterized as the 'statue guy' in the quarterback tier, positioned between the elite rushing QBs and other options.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue0:37
Kyler Murray is ranked way higher than his current ADP by the analysts, similar to Malik Willis.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue0:22
McConkey is the fifth pick in the fourth round and the analyst wants to draft him as often as humanly possible this year, indicating strong value at his current ADP.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection0:36
In 2018, Lamar Jackson was the only quarterback with 100+ rushing attempts who finished lower than QB18 in points per game, but he was QB1 in points per game once he became the weekly starter after only starting seven games.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveValue0:34
Willis is the analyst's favorite pick in the QB20 range. He has elite fantasy points per snap (0.73, ahead of Lamar Jackson at 0.62 and Josh Allen at 0.61), a 15% scramble rate (highest in the NFL), and averages 9 yards per scramble (5th in the league), providing a high floor.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:35
Willis had a 75% drop-back rate in his last start against Baltimore (the highest of his career) and played well while winging it. Historically, 41 of 47 quarterbacks who ran 100+ times in a season were top-12 fantasy QBs, and 30 were top-6 scorers.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:36
Willis is ranked way higher than his current ADP by the analysts, with one calling him "easily my highest drafted quarterback right now" and another ranking him and Kyler Murray significantly higher than where they're being drafted.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:37
Willis is being drafted after Baker Mayfield and Tyler Shuck despite having elite EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected metrics, representing significant value at his current ADP.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:38
Willis showed comfort and rhythm under center with chunk plays and big-time vertical routes in his limited sample, with the new Dolphins play caller Bobby Slowick's system (similar to what worked for CJ Stroud in Green Bay) providing a better fit than his rookie season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:40
Even if Willis just runs around, he'll provide usable weeks, and if he has just a couple games with two passing touchdowns plus rushing production, he'll have spike weeks and easily be in lineups.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:41
Willis represents an arbitrage opportunity because his pass catchers are so weak that nobody is stacking with him, whereas quarterbacks with quality pass catchers ahead of them on the ADP board typically get drafted higher.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveSleeper0:13
Golden is preferred over Jaden Reed as a Packers receiver target in Underdog's explosive-play-driven format, with potential to play a significant role in the offense.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveRole0:27
Ferguson is too fast to count as a traditional tight end in the 13-personnel package, running mostly 25-yard routes rather than functioning as a traditional pass-catching tight end.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveRole0:23
Harris is good in the run game and may work his way into playing time in tighter formations under Mike McDaniel's system.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection0:26
McBride is one of the top three tight ends from a talent perspective and ran 121 more routes than the next closest tight end last year, essentially playing four extra games worth of snaps.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveInjury0:13
Kraft's return timeline is uncertain; he could return earlier than expected, but optimism about injury recovery has been historically unreliable.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:31
Kraft's early-season status is uncertain coming off injury, creating some risk for early-season production.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Oh yes, we are back. Your favorite series returns. The five players I cannot stop drafting with a weekly guest. You all know him, you love him,
0:08you hear about him on this show even when he's not on the show. It is Reach Rebar from a Sharp Football Analysis,
0:16Lord Reeves. How you doing, my friend?
0:18>> I'm doing excellent, guys. I appreciate you guys having me on. It's like a little roto world reunion. I still miss
0:23the days of just, you know, coming into Connecticut and just throwing Josh's whole workday like chaos, uh, and making him just not get any work done.
0:32>> Uh, I'll say that, Reeves, that I'm a, uh, very routine oriented person when it comes to work. Um, I try to space out my
0:41head of how much free time I can have and procrastination I can have in it.
0:44So, you coming to the table and you coming to the desk, uh, certainly did throw me off during those periods of
0:49time. But uh you know I've done the same thing right back at you.
0:52>> I'm like Josh what if we just watched like 10 minutes of Josh Allen drop backs.
0:56>> It was all the soccer whenever I was there. Everyone just like watching the soccer. I can't can't believe how people
1:00can actually write in a cubicle. It's crazy to me.
1:03>> I'll always say this. I didn't realize how little work people got done at work until I went to the NBC
1:09Sports offices. Uh literally playing putt putt for hours on end. Uh Xbox all that. So uh what a place. What a place.
1:17That's where we grew up. I mean, every single show you can go on Reeves, uh, there'll be some type of RA world link.
1:22It's like the, uh, >> nine degrees of separation type stuff.
1:25That That's what Rot World has brought to the table.
1:27>> Yeah. Like, it's like the Shanahan coaching tree.
1:29>> Yes, that's that's what it is. 100%.
1:32Okay. Speaking of, I'm sure we'll talk about some coaching trees and coaching changes during this. As I noted, you brought five of the players you can't
1:41stop drafting this summer. Again, it's early on May 27th as we are recording this, but who's up first? Uh, who's the
1:48name that you cannot subdraft?
1:49>> Yeah, I'm gonna start with uh Terry McLaren. Uh, you know, from the Commanders. I think the Commanders in general are kind of an undervalued best
1:56baseball team. I think they're kind of really built for best baseball. You know, they got the ambiguous, you know, running backs. You know, JCM, Rashad
2:02White, even Kron Allen. Interesting. You know, late pick in these uh especially an underdog. He's got like that Kyle Manangi vibe from a year ago. You've got
2:09Chig and Antonio Williams as like some late round guys. And you can even if you want to get cute, you know, mix in guys
2:14like Diggs and AU and hope that maybe one of them end up on the team before the summer's over. But Terry McLaren is
2:20kind of uh where I start with this team.
2:22He never really got on track last year.
2:24He missed, you know, nearly the entire summer due to that hold out. Uh then he had quad and core injuries very early in
2:29the season. Obviously then, you know, the Commanders were just in in dire straits, you know, with the quarterback situation up and down all year. Uh he
2:37only ended up playing in 10 games. He only appeared on 41% of the offensive snaps and 46 and a.5% of the team drop
2:43backs. But when he did play, he remained a really effective player throughout the chaos of this offense. He had 2.2 yards
2:49per route run. That was 14th among all active receivers uh with 100 more yards or 100 more routes on the season. And he
2:56when he was on the field, he had 31% of the team's targets and 46% of their air yards. 55% of his targets resulted in a
3:04first down or touchdown. Uh which is actually third in the NFL. But what makes him interesting now kind of moving forward here is not just when you look
3:11at this depth chart and say, "All right, it's Antonio Williams and some guys behind him, he's going to get a bunch of
3:16targets or David Blau kind of coming in and saying like we're going to give Terry McLaren 10 targets a game. We want
3:22to just create explosives with him."
3:24It's that kind of top- down marriage of, you know, Blau and the opportunity he has because, you know, Blau comes from
3:30the Ben John, it's our first Ben Johnson coaching tree hire, right? Yes. like is this like the new McVey coaching tree
3:35because >> everyone's like half the league now is like some iteration from they've come from Shawn McVey who comes from Shanahan. Um so I'm very interested to
3:44see how this works especially playing with Jaden Daniels because he's already stated that they're going to feature more balanced offensive approach. Uh
3:51they're going to have more patches with Jaden Daniels under center and that's just something we haven't seen since Jaden Daniels has been in the NFL. He's
3:58been under shotgun for 93% of his drop backs. 33 drop backs from under center so far through a year and change,
4:05however you want to, you know, dissect the season last year. But being in in shotgun so much, uh, has led to, you
4:12know, only a 45% pre- snap motion rate, which is 24th the past two years, and a 24.8% play action rate, which is 18th in
4:19the NFL. Those are going to go way up.
4:21When you look at Ben Johnson, what he did year one, you know, coming into Chicago and what he did with Caleb
4:26Williams, that completely flipped, right? I mean, those offenses in Detroit and Chicago, uh, 66% motion rate, 88% play action rate when they were under
4:34center. So, we're going to see Terry McLaren get these kind of plays that just equal like fantasy high cholesterol targets, right? Motion, pre- snap, uh,
4:46or play action. Like, we just haven't seen that. Even when he was getting targets under Cliff Kingsbury, I mean, he was just stuck in that static role
4:52lining up on the line of scrim scrimmage for 85% of his snaps. He was at left wide receiver for 75% of his snaps out
4:59wide. We always joked about just winding it up over there. He only ran 13 routes per game with pre- snap motion the past
5:05years just wide receiver 60. So I look at Terry McLaren. I look at the target opportunity and then the role change him
5:11getting more like intermediate crossers.
5:13What I really want to see David Blau do in year one is what we saw Ben Johnson do and that's he he's able to create
5:19guys with horizontal spacing and we haven't really had to see got to see Terry McLaren do a lot of that in the
5:24NFL and I think he's completely capable of it. So I look at Terry McCorin and he's kind of where I start like when I
5:29get like my second wide receiver I'm just uber happy to grab him.
5:33>> Yeah, looking at the underdog projection lobby he's at 949 uh receiving yards for the season. that's uh more than players
5:40that are going in the third round. Like I'll throw out Tedo and McMillan is in that category. Um so you're getting a
5:45discount versus the the projections. And then uh just if you look at the sample size in the games with Jaden Daniels,
5:51he's the wide receiver 14 on wide receiver 26 usage. So he's being priced as the wide receiver 25. So you're getting a discount on that. So even if
6:00it's just like the same situation as it has been the last two seasons and there's a chance that it's even better
6:04this year, uh this is a discount. So like if we can kind of like parlay where it's all together where Jaden Daniel
6:10stays healthy, he improves going into his third season. Blau is an upgrade over Cliff Kingsbury and the depth chart around him is worse and the tackle play
6:18is better then all of a sudden like you can have like a wide receiver two run out for Terry McCorm quite easily.
6:23>> Yeah, Reeves, I knew that you and Hayden would come with some amazing uh underlying metrics. So I went back to
6:28the tape uh and watched all of his targets from last season. Something like really stuck out to me was everything just looked really basic. Uh, and maybe
6:38this was going to, you know, Marcus Mariota and him coming into the lineup.
6:42There just so many hitch and curl routes. Then I went back and like dug into just how many there were. 37% of
6:49his targets last season in Terry McLaren were hitches. Uh, that is drastically different than where it was in previous seasons uh, and throughout the rest of
7:00his career. So those are just static routes without much crossing action, without much movement. And what we always talk about with Ben Johnson is,
7:10hey, I'm on Ross Brown on these crossing routes. Jameson Williams, get the ball in his hands, yard up the catch. We saw
7:15it with Luther Burton. We saw with DJ Moore, Coulson Lovelin, all these guys.
7:19Like that is just going to be such a different use case for Terry McLaren that to me with his athleticism I
7:25understand is going to be coming up on his age 31 season, but it's just so much better than these like catch and fall
7:30attempts in zone cup.
7:32>> He's got 435 speed. We don't think of him like that fast because we don't see the yards after the catch uh stuff
7:38recently, but like he could do all the Jameson Blair stuff that that you're mentioning.
7:42>> Just to put a number to that, 37% again last season were hitches. That's compared to 15.2% 2% for the rest of his
7:48career at Reeves. I guess I do have a question.
7:50>> David Blau didn't necessarily coach with Ben Johnson. It was just a player in the system that Ben Johnson was coaching. Uh
7:59I do remember going back in press conferences and Ben Johnson noting that David Blau like drew up some plays that worked for the opposition on any given
8:07week. But uh that is something I do want to factor in here that uh hey and Ben and and David Blau was actually on this
8:14you know commander coaching staff last season. So it's not like oh this is the quarterback coach or passing game coordinator or so on and so forth
8:21directly from Ben. But I assure you that this is the direction they want to go in based on um you know just the coach
8:28speak and the player speak that we've heard so far this offseason.
8:30>> Yeah 100%. I mean he's he's doing he was there when they were doing all that stuff in Detroit. You know, I'm assuming
8:35that he absorbed a lot of that and we're looking to see kind of what he pried away uh from Ben Johnson. Hopefully, he
8:40proves to be as adaptable too as Ben Johnson was in his year one in Chicago.
8:44>> Hey, I know we just talked about Terry McLaren versus Dvonte Adams on yesterday's show. You and I were both on
8:49the Terry McLaren end of this. Uh Reeves, would you be taking Terry over Dvonte Adams this year?
8:54>> I would. And it's only because of the, you know, the factoring in just the Devonte Adams is in the same spot this
9:00year that Terry McLaren was in last year where we knew like there was just inevitable regression coming like touchdown regression. And Devonte Adams
9:06has made his whole career out of scoring touchdowns. I don't act like he's not going to score any touchdowns with the
9:10Rams next year. But when you just look at the opportunity that had the most end zone targets since that data has been
9:15recorded, uh Matthew Stafford with a 7.7% touchdown rate, like we know that those are coming back to the pack this year a little bit. When you actually
9:23look at Adams's usage when he played, I mean, he was right around wide receiver 30 type of like production and like um
9:30without the touchdowns, like his his yardage was amongst the lowest in over 10 years. So, I do think when we remove
9:37some of the touchdowns from Devonte Adams, we're going to start to see like some of that um you know, kind of pull
9:42away from him. Uh because Puka, as long as Puka's on the field, like Puka's getting the ball a lot.
9:47>> All right, sending it back to you, Reeves. Uh second player, who is it? I'm gonna stay in that same kind of bucket
9:52of cluster because I I do take these guys often. The way I've been drafting, especially early on. I mean, we're recording this before June is, you know,
9:59I'm in the title wave of getting largely, you know, two to three running backs, you know, before round five.
10:05>> Was doing it last year. So, we're we're shopping for wide receivers in like this bucket, you know, of rounds, you know,
10:10five and six. Like, you know, I don't have a lot of teams where I'm like, oh man, I'm looking at Basil 2. It is my
10:15RB2. Uh, so this is where I'm grabbing a lot of receivers with upside. A lot of my draft approach last year was actually
10:22written about like the the wide receiver dead zone and starting to grab guys like in round five plus. And in the same
10:28area, another guy that I usually piggyback off off of with Terry McLaren if I can get both or pivot if I don't is
10:35Christian Watson who goes like a couple spots after him like in that wide receiver 28 wide receiver 29 29 range.
10:41Um he's a guy when you look at last year, you know, recovering from the ACL.
10:45When he came back was another guy that was just really hyper efficient. You know, came back in the 10 games he was
10:50in had over 600 yards and six touchdowns. From weeks eight through 17, see play in week 18. He was seventh among all wide receivers in yards per
10:58out run. He was wide receiver 13 in air share. Uh he's had three years on his rookie contract. He's been over two
11:03yards per out run. He's the wide receiver 15 in yards per out run since he entered the NFL. the wide receiver 17
11:09in fantasy points per outr run and the wide receiver 13 in fantasy points per target. Now you look at the Packers,
11:14Romeo Dobs left during free agency.
11:17Dantavian Wixs uh traded away. Dubs was the only Packer wide receiver to run a route on over 50% of the drop backs last
11:24season. He was at 75%. Jaden Reed is so far, we'll see if his role gets extended, he's only run eight career
11:31routes and one to two wide receiver sets. It's like one of my favorite stats I keep using till like eventually he
11:36starts playing. uh in those plays, which is like so when the Packers are are playing their base offense, I expect Christian Watson to be on the field all
11:45the time. Now, this is the rub, right?
11:48And this is why I like him a little more, especially on a site like Underdog that's not full PPR. It's a little more
11:52explosive play driven, and you can kind of insulate yourself of not having to worry about maybe the injury factor as much as like in a paying the price in a
12:00reddraft league, right? A managed league. Uh because the rub with Christian Watson, again, he's missed multiple games every year of his career.
12:06uh he has like kind of that Jameson Williams though style of like upside paired with like volatility. And then listen, we're recording this a day after
12:14the Josh Jacobs news. I don't know if that's going to have any impact on the season at all, but the Packers are
12:19pretty limited if Josh Jacobs is going to miss any time this season and pivot options that they have right now in
12:24terms of free agency. Maybe they pull off a trade. And if we get any type of situation where the Packers are just
12:30forced to throw more than they have these past three years, there's another, you know, domino kind of following in his favor where we're just getting a lot
12:37more routes than we've seen Christian Watson have over his rookie contract.
12:40>> So last year he was the wide receiver, 40 in fantasy points per game expected just based off his usage. Like how high
12:46how high do you think that can climb to if he's going to, you know, run 25% more routes? Like cuz he's always going to be
12:52efficient. Just like Jordan Love's too good, Laflur's too good, Christian Watson is too good. So, we always know he's going to have outproduce like his
12:58usage. Like, do could we have like the wide receiver 25 in like expected points where he can get like all the way up
13:04into like a top 15 season? Like, is that that crazy?
13:07>> I I think you could look at just the last two years like when Jameson Williams has run hot like that type of
13:12player, right? Like, you know, that kind of upside. And we have no idea, like I said, are they going to play Jaden Reed
13:18in those one to two wide receiver sets that we and we still don't know what we're going to get out of Matthew
13:22Golden. I don't mind even taking grabbing those other two guys. I prefer Golden just because of the underdog scoring format than Jaden Reed, but I
13:31don't mind getting either of those two guys either just because the and we don't also don't know when we're going to see Tucker Craft be Tucker Craft
13:37again. Uh it could be earlier than expected, but we also have seen the you know in we've all died on the injury
13:43hill like the optimism hill. So, it's like uh a a lot just just lines up, I think, for Watson based on, you know,
13:50the format of this type of tournament and, you know, scoring out of sight.
13:54>> I I love this pick uh for many of the reasons that you said, but also if round five is typically when you grab one of
14:00your first two wide receivers, then you're giving us a name at the top of round three or excuse me, round five and
14:06Terry McLaren and at the end of round five with Christian Watson and the 11th pick there as a wide receiver 29. I went
14:14back and just asked myself, okay, why was last year when he was on the field for those 10 games more consistent than
14:21in previous years? I mean, you know, the highest catch rate he's had in his career, the most yards per game at 61.
14:27Uh, and again, when I went back and watched, a major part of it was that there were more gimmies and there more
14:33outside breaking routes. and then dug into the numbers again here.
14:37>> His out routes jumped from 7.7% of his targets in his first what three seasons up to 35% of his targets this past
14:46season. And those are also, you know, lower A dot plays. And it's just we know how explosive he can be. We know how
14:53much of an ambitious thrower that Jordan Love can be. And those plays do break models and the expected points. Um, but
15:01if we also get the gimmies here of, hey, third and four, he's the player, he's the one in motion, he's the one that's
15:07getting the separation, and he's the one they're targeting underneath, then that just adds like a baseline performance and baseline production, Hayden, to like
15:16a player who has struggled with that stuff and has kind of been a spiked weak guy in previous season.
15:21>> I know one of the Packers wide receivers, if not two of them, are like severely underpriced. I have the same
15:27read as you, Reeves, where I know that Christian Watson's good. He's going to play a lot. I think there's a chance
15:32that Matthew Golden's going to be good and that he's going to play a lot. And then I think Jaden Reed, I I know he's
15:36pretty good, but I have my doubts he's going to play. So, I'm I'm kind of looking at Watson and Matthew Golden as
15:43the two Packers players that I'm like most intrigued by. And if you really like look at the the projections of it
15:48all, Christian Watson's like not that dissimilar to like you said Jameson Williams, uh Luther Burden, uh some of these players out there where like we're
15:56anticipating their their roles to increase or that there's hyper efficient players. He's the one that's just priced way after those guys. Um and like not
16:04next to like Coulson Leland who I want to be drafting. So, uh he's definitely the target out of this patch.
16:08>> And and we know it's it's because of the health, right? Like and you're injuryprone who you're not. and he's missed time every year and that's what's
16:14kind of kept him in that at the bottom of I think that kind of tier. I think you can conclude Alec Pierce kind of in
16:20there too and then I think that's like the firewall. Then you start to get into some projection with some of the other
16:25guys like when you get to Marv the rookies, what are we going to get out of BTJ? Uh that's why I think he's at the
16:31bottom of that of that list. But if you just run into one season where he just stays on the field, we know we're
16:36getting fantasy points >> and he's healthy right now and he's 27 years old. So, like it could have just been bad injury luck and then for the
16:43next five years he doesn't miss any time. Like that's just how it works sometimes.
16:47>> All right, you kick things off with Terry McLaren and Christian Watson. By the way, Reeves has and is a part of one
16:52of the best draft guides in the draft kits in the business. That's over at Sharp Football. He already has top 250
16:57rankings, positional rankings, dynasty rookie rankings, all that type of stuff.
17:01So, we'll definitely link that in the description down below for you all to check out. I know a lot of you did last
17:06summer. All right, let's talk another position. Uh, give us your third player that you brought to the table here today.
17:10>> Yeah, my third guy is my my favorite guy. It's actually the player when I run my my rankings against ADP. It's the
17:18large it's the the guy has the largest gap and it's Justin Herbert. And and you might say, well, Justin Herbert goes as
17:24a top 10 quarterback. Yeah, that's how aggressive I am on Justin Herbert this year. Um, and I know that like a lot of
17:30people he's like kind of like an eye rolling inducing player to to many because they're like, "Oh, until he wins something, right? Man,
17:36>> I care about I care about fantasy points, man. And Justin Herbert is literally set up to score a lot of
17:41fantasy points this season. I mean, we know we know what happened last year, right? Like, we don't really need to to
17:46talk about like the complete ringer he went through, even though we'll mention it, you know, starting the year without Rashan Slater. Uh Joe Walt only appeared
17:52in six games. Uh Justin Herbert was hit on 129 dropbacks last year, uh while being ninth in the NFL in drop backs,
18:00led the NFL. uh to kind of put some perspective on that. Bo Nicks had 669 dropbacks most in the NFL. He was only
18:08hit 71 times. Uh yep, >> it's just absolutely crazy. And we talk about the Chargers offensive line. Their most frequently used offensive line
18:16combination last year, and this is already accounting for Sean Slater not even starting the year was only on the field for 16 and a half% of their
18:22offensive snaps. It was the lowest rate in the NFL. It wasn't just Joe Wall being injured. It wasn't just Rashawn Slater not starting the year. Uh Bradley
18:31Boseman and Zion Johnson are the only guys up here >> in every game.
18:35>> Neither one of them is on team anymore.
18:36>> That's derogatory by the way. Yeah.
18:39>> Reeves. What blows my mind though is we always talked about the the tackles being injured and bad, but that was the
18:45guard center guard combination that the Chargers wanted to start every single game and they were brutal in terms of every single phase of pass protection.
18:54>> Yeah. Mai Beckton didn't work out. Uh and and you just and we've seen we've seen Justin Herbert operate at a high
19:00level fans quarterback. Obviously his second year in the league. He had the QB2 overall finish. He was the QB3 and overall points before Alt's injury last
19:07year without Rashan Slater and some kind of moving parts and he was the QB4 in expected points at that point. Then
19:12everything just fell off a cliff with this offense after Alt's injury. They were like one of the worst teams in explosive plays. Uh they actually fell
19:20to 27th in yards per play. Um he averaged 0.56 fantasy points per drop back with Alt on the field. Went to 0.43
19:28without him. That was a difference between QB7 on the season and QB21.
19:32Um and now we're getting this kind of big boom with Mike McDaniel coming in.
19:38And I do think that this is a huge deal, even bigger than I think everyone like knows it's good, but think about this.
19:45If you just look at the Shanahan side of the coaching tree, the Mick Shanahan side, because I want to remove the McVey
19:50side for a little bit because McVey was the first kind of guy to like alter it.
19:55His thing when he broke off the Shanahan coaching tree and created his own like kind of branch, he's I'm getting rid of
20:00the fullback. I'm adding a slot receiver. We're going to start using our, you know, guys like Robert Woods and Cooper Cup and now Pukanua. We're
20:07gonna get them on the move, get them blocking on linebackers. And you know, we want to be able to run against all
20:13this big nickel while we're in nickel.
20:15And then when we have to throw, while we're in 11, and then when we have to throw, we've got a pl we have a fullback
20:20on the field. We've got a plus guy that can help us. You know, it's funny is last year now he's turning the tides and
20:25say, "We don't really have a good third wide receiver. What if we just uh get teams to go base and to try to create
20:30explosive passing plays?" But the Shanahan side where Mike McDaniel comes from, he did, he's like more tried and true. He added more pre- snap motion
20:38than we usually see from the Shanahan side, but he's playing a fullback. They brought his guy over again, too. Like, just put he he's like his Al Gald is his
20:47his use check, bringing him everywhere he goes. But, uh, we know we're going to see a lot more tighter splits. U, we'll
20:52get to some of that more pre-stat motion. But when you look at the Shanahan side of this coaching tree, this is a system that has had high-end
20:59efficiency from guys like Jimmy Garopolo, Brian Greasie, Matt Shaw, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold last year, even Nick Mullins, a big year from Kurt
21:09Cousins. Tua Tungoa had a 4.8% touchdown rate every year with Mike McDaniel. To add some context to that, Patrick Mahomes has even had a four and a half%
21:18touchdown rate since 2022.
21:21Uh Jordan Love, who is playing under the same iteration of this offense, is one of four quarterbacks that have a 5%
21:27touchdown rate or higher in each of the past three seasons. When you look at when this system has had an elite
21:34caliber quarterback, these guys have won MVPs. Aaron Rodgers 2020, 2021, MVP, MVP, 48 touchdowns, 37 touchdowns. Matt
21:45Ryan in 2016, 38 touchdowns.
21:49this this s that's it really. You got to go back to John Elway then to find another guy that played in this Mike
21:54Shanahan coaching system that was an elite talent. They have made water into wine out of a bunch of guys and now
22:00we've got another elite talent. That guy has all the tools and we're putting him in this offense with good weaponry and
22:07improved offensive line just by proxy of having his two tackles back on the field. Uh man, I think Justin Herbert is
22:15is a guy that you want to bet to win MVP this year. I think he's a guy that's going to score a ton of points. Um, I
22:20think the sky is the limit for him.
22:22>> He also was running around a little bit more last year. Obviously, that was more out of necessity, but that like that's a
22:26good fallback plan that if everything kind of starts falling apart, he can run around a little bit more. Yeah.
22:31Obviously, the talent's outrageous.
22:32>> He's kind of modern Elway like to be honest.
22:35>> Mhm. Yeah. Spin the football uh down the football field like that. My question to you, I'm totally sold on this. Which
22:42wide receivers and tight ends are you bringing along with him? Like are you also like really into Quinton Johnson?
22:48Is it Lad Mcconi all the way into round three? Is it Dadston? Is it all of them?
22:51I mean, if you're thinking you're calling yourself an MVP, it's probably going to be all of them, but clear.
22:56>> Am I off base just being like, "Hey, I want to draft Lad Mani as often as humanly possible this year. I mean, he's
23:01the fifth pick in the fourth round right now."
23:03>> Um I Yeah, all it's all these guys. I don't want to like necessarily have to just force them. It's kind of I think
23:08dealers's choice. think we're going to see all these guys play a little bit with Maki being the guy that is going to
23:13be probably more locked into the um route participation stuff that's going to be fluid. But even Quinton Johnson, like I know he's like a punching bag,
23:20but he's gotten better every year in the NFL. Like he creates explosives. You don't think Mike McDaniel is going to create explosives with Quinton Johnson?
23:26Then you have Trey Harris who factors in like he's a he's good in the run game.
23:30Does he weasle his way in and playing in some of these tighter And I know Aronda Gadson is a guy that I'm not
23:36gonna want and reddraft, but in this type of format, you should still want a Ronda Gadson because his per target stuff is going to
23:44look awesome. The the thing that's going to hold him back is from a reraft stance is you're never going to know when to
23:49play him because you never know he's going to have a 40% ro participation or like a 70% ro participation. Then you
23:54have like all the the injury stuff that could happen. But in he's fallen I think he opened at like tight end nine, tight
23:59end 10 and I think he's dropped since the addition of David Njoku who you can also throw in here too as a late round
24:05kind of guy that to to soak up maybe some touchdown production or some dominoes a windfall through injuries or just them playing more two tight end
24:12stuff. I mean yeah I think all these guys are just in board on board to add here but I think it's going to be a
24:17conglomeration like it's not going to be like a Julio Jones 2016 right? I think it's going to be just everyone kind of
24:23contributing. I think we're gonna see Mike McDaniel really back in his bag this year uh with this with this just talent pool that he has.
24:30>> Yeah, I mean it's pretty simple to make the case that you mentioned the offenses and just overall points that Mike
24:37McDaniel produced in Miami and that was with the quarterback that defenses caught up to his physical limitations.
24:43You know, certain other areas of the field he just could not attack. Extended plays just were not an option there.
24:48With Justin Herbert, he doesn't have any of those limitations. And it's like there there is no ceiling to this in a
24:55crazy way. So, uh, yeah, and you even mentioned, Hayden, some of the rushing performances, they were outstanding rushing performances. I mean, 60, 62,
25:0457, and a touchdown and 66 yards. I'm certain if I went back and watched those, a lot of those would be scrambles
25:10and running for his life. So, hopefully he doesn't have to do that as often, but we know the athleticism is there if he
25:15has to the team.
25:16>> Yeah, he had a career-high scramble rate. It was 2% higher than his previous high. So there was a lot there was a lot
25:21of I got to get the hell out of here.
25:23>> But he was so banged up like you said all those quarterback it's like when he was scrambling around you can see in how
25:27much pain he was in. He was still like going to war. So like yeah this is this is a great call. This makes me want to
25:31like do a lot more research on Quinton Johnson because if we're going to get some like 35 plus touchdown season out
25:38of Justin Herbert in this offense. I mean Lad Mccon is not going to score 15 touchdowns most likely given his size.
25:44Like it's going to be somebody else in this offense. I I just want to make sure we're not overthinking Quinton Johnson
25:49right now. And the thing about this this this take, which I know is completely, you know, very bullish, is there are
25:55those people that just don't want to deal with Justin Herbert.
25:58>> He's not gonna really move.
25:59>> Yeah.
26:00>> Hayden and I have been going through the tight end conversation and in previous years, Reeves, uh, we've loved to, you
26:08know, build this Dr. Frankenstein late round tight end room. I think that's becoming more and more difficult because, uh, those tight ends that we
26:15drafted late last year are now being drafted earlier and earlier. So, uh, is there a tight end on the board that, uh,
26:21you can't stop drafting this year?
26:22>> Yeah, I and I've I've tried a bunch of approaches this year at tight end. And, you know, one of the things I keep
26:28getting hung up on is I I love the top three from a talent perspective. There's a reason that the top three, right?
26:33Like, >> these are very good, diverse players, you know, in Trey McBride, uh, Brock Bowers, and Coulson Lovelin, who I would
26:41include in that, especially when you factor in like the way Coulson Loveid ended his season. Like, there's a lot of upside here. And again in that Ben
26:47Johnson offense uh and Ben Johnson was kind of copying that McVey approach with way better personnel to end the year.
26:54Like when he saw Shawn McVey running that 13 personnel, Sean McVey kind of like had to do it too. Like when you
27:00look at like he couldn't run the old McVey offense with the player personnel he had, Ben Johnson kind of looked at
27:05was like, man, I've got better personnel to do this with. Cole KT and Coulson Lovelin are way better than Kobby Parker
27:11who's a little bit underrated, but like you know uh you know Davis Allen and if Tyler Higgby is available, right? And
27:16Terrence Ferguson doesn't really count in the 13 personnel. I refuse to acknowledge that he's allowed to count as a tight end because all
27:22>> he's too fast.
27:23>> All he did was run 25 yard rounds.
27:26>> I loved it. I loved it.
27:27>> Yeah. He's also a fun guy, too. That didn't make the cut here for me.
27:31>> But if you look at the tight end position, the past five years, like it's had a lot more correlation to just like
27:37raw opportunity. The last five tight end ones have just outright run the most routes at the position. And to me, that's a hangup for Lovelin and Bowers
27:45completely nuking is that both of those teams are going to be playing with very runoriented philosophies and maybe they just don't run the raw routes. And the
27:52McBride just has so many pulling factors of just natural aggression. He ran 121 more routes than the next closest tight end last year. That's like four game. He
28:00basically played four extra games than the next closest tight end.
28:03>> Cardinals were number one in in neutral pass rate last year. No chance at repeats. And you have like the the
28:08quarterback stuff like the way the Cardinal schedule if anyone is like really you know a week out week and a half out from the schedule stuff the
28:14Cardinals got absolutely nuked. I really think their schedule unless Jacobe Brassette absolutely wins this whatever hold out he's doing that we're going to
28:22see all three guys because there's no on quick onboard for Carson Beck. I think it's going to be they're getting rubbed
28:28and they're going to have to go from Brassette to Mchu then to Beck. We probably see all three at some point
28:33this year. Um, so like with and paired with the natural aggression, like it's hard to just like go all in on McBride
28:39and we know there's going to be a boy.
28:40He had the he provided the highest positional leverage from tight end one to tight end two in terms of tight end
28:46two scoring a percentage of the title one's points ever in in the history of fantasy football. So like that's just going to naturally make you want to go
28:53to the field and like even loving Bowers and Lovelin it's like man like are they going to just get the raw routes in the
28:59offenses they're in? Maybe there's a chance, right, that the Raiders are that bad and you could get it. But then we
29:04also have the rookie factor, too.
29:06Whenever fan Fernando Mendoza starts, no. Oh, no tight ends ever been the tight end one overall attached to a rookie quarterback that started half the
29:14games or more. And we haven't seen we've only seen three guys be a tight end three or higher uh in overall scoring.
29:19So, there's a lot of like pooling factors. I've tried some teams where I grabbed Bowers in Loveland and I end up
29:25still just like really loving the depth at still tight end versus kind of the depth of running back wide receiver. So,
29:31I've found the teams I like the most so far. And I say like subjectively, it could will you look at the 10,000 foot
29:37view come February and be like, "Oh yeah, you just needed that Kyle Pittz game, right? That you got in the playoffs last year." But I really like
29:44the later round guys. And one of my favorite later round guys is Isaiah Likely right now. So, if you want to
29:51look for like tight end breakouts in terms of historical like ADP or just guys that hit, you want guys that can
29:57potentially be the the lead target in their passing game or at worst the second target in their passing game.
30:02Since 2010, 65% of all tight end one scorers uh were either the first or second pass catcher on their team. Uh
30:09only 19 uh.1% of all tight ends selected after their team's wide receiver two finishes at uh tight end one that year.
30:18likely goes after Neighbors but ahead ahead of the other guys. So, he's right in this bucket of what we look for. We
30:23don't know when Neighbors is going to be back 100%. Like, could he just lead the team in targets? It's in the range of
30:29outcomes, I believe, because I think we're going to see some cannibalization from the wide receivers like Mooney, Malachi Fields, and Darius Slayton.
30:36There's a lot of overlap where those guys want to run routes.
30:38>> So, like, will those guys kind of eat each other like snapshares up? Uh, we know that there's a Matt Naggie like
30:45question here, but one thing Matt Naggie has done at all stops, he's another guy that run likes to run a lot of two tight
30:49end stuff. Um, Jackson Dart and last year was right around the league rate in targeting tight ends. But here's the thing, he was the QB8 and on target rate
30:58to tight end throws, but he was QB27 and drop rate is why Theo I like Theo, too. I like Theo and I
31:08think he's a play in the two tight end, but there's a reason they wanted to upgrade a pass catcher. He left a lot of
31:12plays on the field. And then the other thing is too is like I brought up the where Theo Johnson's going. Like look at
31:19some of the running backs and wide receivers, you know, going against him.
31:22Like you're taking him in a range where you're at going against like Tyrone Tracy and the Jonah Coleman's and Katon Mitchell. Uh Khalil Shakir, who's this
31:30is not the format for Khil Shakir. Uh you know Jaylen Coker, who I do like like guys like Omar Cooper. Like I'm
31:36just way more comfortable shopping uh at the price range for the tight ends. And there's some other tight ends I like in
31:41this range, too. But I actually have a higher projection on likely than and I think he's underpriced. So, I've been getting him the most out of that group.
31:48>> So, for reddraft, I think he's even a better pick because most likely we're assuming Malik Neighbor's going to miss September. And there's tight ends who
31:56are being drafted ahead of him or right around him and George KD and Tucker Craft who we don't know about their uh
32:02early parts of their season coming off of injury. So, I think in like reddraft leagues, if you drafted Tucker Craft and
32:07then a couple of rounds later wanted to go Isaiah Likely and maybe there's a chance you're just starting Isaiah Likely out of the jump while Malik
32:12Neighbors is banged up and then afterwards you can drop him, move on, find the next breakout guy if Isaiah likely doesn't even pan out. So, uh I
32:20hear your case in baseball. I think in just reddraft leagues, I think when week one comes around, I think we're going to
32:26have a pretty sweet projection for for the new free agent.
32:29>> Reeves, that was an interesting pitch.
32:31Uh let me pitch you on something. How different of a profile is it with what you just said about Isaiah likely target
32:36competition, top two target getter, all that type of stuff on the team uh than Chigo Quano who goes about two rounds
32:43later at the eighth pick of the 13th round as now a member of the Washington Commanders.
32:48>> And I do like Chig a lot too. The one thing I worry about Chig is just like he is the worst run blocking tight end in
32:54the NFL. And it may not matter. It's like you you want to be on a team like you want to have the Harold Fannon run
33:01out of last year if you're a terrible run blocker where your team just has to throw and you're high enough on the
33:05target packing pecking order you can score fantasy points. So I do think there is some like kind of uh a conquo
33:11like Harold Fannon adjacency that you could draw to. So it's not a big massive difference. I think likely is going to
33:16play on a little more rundowns uh than a conqu. But I do like a conquo as well.
33:20Like I led off with the commander pitch.
33:22Yeah, I think he's my most drafted player at this point, which uh maybe says something about where I'm drafting uh in in late May. Yeah, with likely I
33:29went back and and watched some of the stuff. To me, some of his best plays were the uh offscript extended play
33:34stuff, like staying on a string with his quarterback. And Jackson Dar is going to do that. I mean, he's going to drop his
33:39eyes and, you know, pick up and create space and then look down the field. He did it last year as a rookie and he'll
33:44do it also during his uh his second season. All right, one more name. Richie Bart, I know this is a uh Lord Reeves
33:53special. Hit us with it.
33:54>> Yeah, I mean it's been so long since we had a little, you know, Konami that's available at cost, man. You got to hit
34:00him with a little up down down left, right, left, right, BA start. Uh Malik Willis is my guy here, especially, man.
34:07And you talk about like this is like the format. You're telling me I could get a a running quarterback that fits all
34:13builds. He can be your QB2 where you go powerhouse QB, you know, Josh Allen or spending on a Joe Burrow or anyone up
34:19top. He can be part of your QB3, you know, uh, Frankenstein. Uh, and I never have to pick which week to start him,
34:27right? I just get to soak up the weeks to get him. Like I can't think of a better kind of pick in like the QB20
34:32range. Uh, we we we know he was able to kind of resurrect his career in Green Bay. Uh, I don't know like how much is
34:38real from the efficiency on the small sample because when you look at like fantasy points per snap, he's number one with a bullet the past two years. Like
34:460.73 fantasy points per snap. For some context, Lamar Jackson 0.62. Then Josh Allen 0.61 up next. He's not going to be
34:54that kind of player. Not on this Miami Dolphins team, which is definitely being priced in. It's really to me like about
35:00like the the cost at first because even guys like Justin Fields last year and we didn't we didn't even know Justin Fields
35:05was going to get the be able to start like that was we we knew he'd start the year but we didn't know he'd survive the
35:11year and he ended up not because we knew he was not a good quarterback to surv like in the NFL like he was on his third
35:17stop what or fourth team in four years or he's on his fourth team in four years now and he didn't make it long enough
35:22but like Malik Willis has a lot of runway here to at least finish the year as the starter and he's being priced in
35:26as just like hey he's he's He's a QB3.
35:30Uh you can grab it down. But when you look at the game that we talked about before I got on here and you guys were
35:35going over bust the names. The game that kind of won me over a little bit was the last time we kind of saw him start
35:41against the Baltimore Ravens in that Saturday night game. I can't remember if it was a Christmas game or not, but Derrick Henry ran for like a zillion
35:47yards. But in that game, Green Bay had a 75% drop back uh rate in that game. It was the highest that Malik Willis has
35:53had in his career. Josh Jacobs didn't play. left that game with an injury and he was out there winging it uh and was
35:59playing well. We know he can he can run, right? Like he had a 15% scramble at Green Bay. It was the highest rate in
36:05the NFL. Uh behind him, Jaden Daniels is second um over the past two years and he averages nine yards per scramble uh
36:12which is fifth in the year. So the rushing production is at least going to insulate him for having like a high
36:17floor. He's the original throwback Konami guy when I started when I wrote that original article which is 2013.
36:24date myself here. It was about Tim Tibo.
36:26It was about, you know, and we didn't It's It's about how these guys have a high floor. Remember when Taesm Hill
36:32started a couple years ago at quarterback, having that high floor?
36:35Well, since 1990, there have been 47 quarterbacks that have run the ball a 100 times or more in a season. 41 of
36:42those 47 quarterbacks have been a top 12 quarterback in fantasy points per game.
36:47Uh 30 of them have been top six scores.
36:49I don't think we're going to get that out of League. Not with this infrastructure. But the only guy that was even lower than QB18 in points per
36:55game. Now, mind you, this guy's going QB 21, QB20, right in that range, was Lamar Jackson in 2018. And he only has his uh
37:04production dinged because he only started seven games. It was like come in for like rushing plays. But when he took over as the weekly starter that season,
37:11he was the QB1 in points per game. And we're talking about some bad QBs. We have that that thousand yard rushing
37:16Justin Field season. We've got guys like Tibo, who I brought up, Terrod Taylor.
37:20Like I think format for best baseball, he fits everything that you're looking for. That that big stigma of the Miami Dolphins is glossed all over his ADP. So
37:30Malik Willis is kind of the throwback of the original brand and I got to bring him back. He's easily my highest drafted
37:35quarterback right now.
37:36>> Yeah, this is just like it's like the easiest call to me this year. I have him and Kyler Murray just like ranked way
37:42higher than where they're currently being drafted. Now the issue is we've talked about there's like 17 quarterbacks I really like and they're
37:48kind of hard to parse through. Um, I like Justin Herbert is kind of the statue guy and then Malik Willis is the
37:53last guy where I think there's maybe a tear dropped to somebody else. Josh, in our little chat here, I want to show off
38:00this advanced stats page. If you can open up this link on the the shared screen where Malik Willis is in EPA per
38:06dropback and then also uh in success rate or in completion percentage over expected, he is totally by himself.
38:16We're not talking about EPA per carry here. We're talking about EPA per dropback. So, in this small sample size going back a couple seasons now, he is
38:24completely by himself. So, we're factoring in that he's most likely not a good quarterback, but there's a chance that he's actually a good quarterback
38:32who also runs a ton. So, if that's the case, then you're going to like talk about all the stuff that Reeves was
38:38talking about, plus that he actually might just like carry this Dolphins offense to a level that most people can't expect right now.
38:44>> Yeah. I mean, I went back and watched all 50 of his dropbacks from last season. I thought there was a real
38:48rhythm to his game. Obviously, there's athleticism when working outside of it and out of structure, either throwing on the move or straight up scrambling. But
38:56we talked about that Ravens contest. And again, I understand that >> everyone threw in the Ravens last year and their defense just wasn't as good as
39:03in some years past. But what really caught my attention was one, his willingness to throw down the seam, outside the numbers, these big time
39:11vertical routes, some really tight window stuff, too. But also there were chunk plays from under center and like some real comfort from under center too.
39:19And I think when they signed the Miami Dolphins Malik Willis and I looked at who the new play caller is and Bobby
39:24Slowick in my brain I instantly jumped to okay this is drastically different than rookie season CJ Stout. How is this going to work? This gave me a bit more
39:33optimism for it because, you know, he kind of took on the mannerisms of Jordan Love and really, I think, embedded himself in that Green Bay Packers
39:41offense. And with Bobby Slo, some of his best stuff during that rookie season for CJ Strad was going from under center,
39:47five, sevenstep drops, a protection plan around him and these big-time vertical routes, and these big-time crossing routes. And so, I actually think the fit
39:55is a lot better than I originally thought uh as soon as they signed Molly Quz. So, I really like this pick and
40:01Reebs. I I love that like, you know, here we are and can make a pick in 2026 that in 20 2016 it was uh easy to do and
40:10it feels like over the last five years that everyone has caught up to, you know, the strategy and finally we get
40:15the one chance to do it and yet Malik Bliss is going, you know, after Baker Mayfield and Tyler Shuck and a bunch of
40:20other names. So, uh this is pretty cool.
40:22>> Yeah. And part partially was just the room got smarter. I mean, they saw they saw the the floor that these types of
40:28guys held. And I think recent recency has kind of, you know, crept in. Uh, some guys that maybe were overpriced based on their acu acumen of quarterback
40:37play. Obviously, Justin Fields like we we already saw Justin Fields changed teams twice and he was still getting drafted as like QB1 last year. That's
40:43like and then everyone's kind of burnt.
40:44And then the Anthony Richardson kind of fiasco. But I think that's kind of being overded here. And it's it's actually insulating especially like said in
40:51baseball because and obviously the Dolphins, right? Like everyone knows like the Dolphins are they like what 200 in dead cap like this year they're
40:58openly like kind of retooling here >> but uh it's it's all priced in here like like if he just runs around he's going
41:06to give you weeks that are usable and no matter what build you have and then if like Hayden said if there's just a
41:11couple games where you get a a two passing touchdown game with the rushing he's going to he's going to have a spike
41:16week and he's going to easily be in your lineup.
41:17>> Yeah. Last two notes. The Dolphins they have at least three quality offensive linemen. Their center might be the best in the league. their left tackles
41:23emerging as well. They added Kaden Proctor early on. So, I think like keep the offensive line separate from the skilled guys. And then second to that,
41:32>> in baseball, everyone's so focused on stacking as we should. When quarterbacks don't have pass catchers who are ahead of them on the ADP board, there's no
41:40reason to be drafting those players.
41:42Everybody else is focused on the other quarterbacks. So in the rare circumstances when we do have a quarterback where all of his pass
41:48catchers or just one of his pass catchers is going ahead of him, those guys traditionally have been a little bit underpriced just because everybody
41:54else is so focused on drafting or stacking their quarterback with the guys that they had already drafted. So I think that if Malik Willis had one pass
42:02catcher going in round five, we would see him jump up a full round or so. It's just one of these weird scenarios
42:08because the the pass catchers are so bad. There's no reason to be bringing him up. So, I think there is an
42:13arbitrage opportunity just based off of how people are drafting in basketball right now.
42:17>> Great, great points, Reeves, you said it all. Anything else you want to leave us with how people can find your work?
42:22>> Yeah, you can go over to sharp footballanalysis.com.
42:25Uh, you know, last year I had a fun promo. Uh, I'm going to do another one this year. It's going to be different at
42:30least, but if you do use promo code underdog, you can get $10 off of the bundle, which kind of gives you the
42:35draft kit for free and it makes like the breakdown basically be $7 uh a week for inseason stuff. So you can follow along
42:42with the worksheet stuff that Josh is quoting and Winkx is rolling his eyes like why are you doing this stuff every
42:49week?
42:50>> No, it's so good. I mean, if if he's not doing it, I'll do it. I just leave it up to him. I know I know he's got my back.
42:56>> All right, Rees, thanks so much. Thanks everyone for watching out there as well.
43:00We'll have another episode for you tomorrow. Hit subscribe, watch along, and we'll see
