Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden Source

Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden artwork

VideoFrom Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

The Fantasy Football QB Meta Has Flipped ♻️

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 28 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

May 22, 2026

Published

Fri, May 22, 2026

21

Player insights

5

Players mentioned

Topics

Jalen HurtsJustin HerbertDak PrescottDrake MayeJayden Daniels

Player analysis

Player insights

21

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection0:33

Dak Prescott is one of three quarterbacks projected for over 4,000 yards and has been a top-eight scorer in points per game in five of his past six seasons.

PositiveRole0:34

Dak Prescott will have CD Lamb for the entire season rather than missing a quarter of it due to injury, and now has George Pickens as a top-10 receiver on the outside.

PositiveProjection0:34

Dak Prescott's accuracy numbers have returned to his career baseline after a down year two years ago when he was injured, with no age cliff or injury concerns expected.

PositiveValue0:35

Dak Prescott is one of the safest picks despite being listed as quarterback nine, with potential to vault into the top eight if injuries occur ahead of him.

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection0:27

Drake Maye's arrow is pointing straight up heading into year two with Josh McDaniels, and he could finish as a top-one, two, or three quarterback despite some negative regression risk.

PositiveRole0:27

Drake Maye led all quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected last year, a metric that typically regresses; he has the physical tools to run like Josh Allen but hasn't been used extensively in designed runs.

PositiveUsage0:29

Drake Maye had 450 rushing yards (fourth most among QBs) and only 4 rushing scores last year, suggesting potential for 7-9 rushing touchdowns if red zone opportunities improve.

PositiveMatchup0:29

Drake Maye was fourth in EPA per drop back when playing above-average defenses, including playoffs, suggesting his strong performance wasn't just against weak competition.

Jalen Hurts

PositiveProjection0:20

Jaylen Hurts' rushing touchdown regression from 7 in 2023 to 13 in 2024 is an outlier; baseline projection is around 8.5 rushing touchdowns with likely range between those two numbers.

PositiveRole0:21

Jaylen Hurts' fantasy success depends heavily on offensive line health and whether the Eagles can generate single-high looks through rushing success to help him against zone coverage, where he has struggled.

NegativeRole0:22

Jaylen Hurts has not been effective reading the field against zone coverage and ranks 85th of 88 eligible quarterbacks since 2020 in percentage of throws between the numbers below 15 air yards, indicating discomfort in certain areas.

NegativeProjection0:22

Jaylen Hurts is now being drafted in the 60s-70s rather than 30s-40s due to concerns about his ability to return to top-three QB status without prime AJ Brown and with a new offensive coordinator.

NegativeUsage0:26

Jaylen Hurts is less willing to take a pounding on rushing plays and short-yardage situations, making a return to double-digit rushing scores unlikely.

PositiveProjection0:27

Jaylen Hurts is projected for 474 rushing yards and is expected to finish as quarterback six, which feels appropriate given the offensive changes.

Jayden Daniels

PositiveRole0:19

Jaden Daniels has a low play action rate compared to peers like Caleb Williams and Jared Goff, requiring him to showcase elite speed and be at full health to match or surpass Josh Allen's upside.

PositiveProjection0:19

Jaden Daniels has been a 'fantasy football printfest' even dating back to his LSU days, indicating consistent fantasy production.

Justin Herbert

PositiveValue0:30

Justin Herbert selected at 11th pick in the seventh round might be the best value at quarterback on the board with two healthy first-round offensive tackles returning and Mike McDaniel as play caller.

PositiveProjection0:31

Justin Herbert was quarterback two in overall scoring through nine weeks before Joe Alt's injury last year; with Alt, Raan Slater, Mike McDaniel, and Tyler Bottes, he has significant upside.

PositiveRole0:32

Mike McDaniel discussed maximizing Herbert's yardage on quick releases (2.4 seconds or faster) by changing his footwork and eye placement, which should lead to more yards after catch opportunities.

PositiveProjection0:33

Justin Herbert's combination with Mike McDaniel 'can go to the moon this year' with the addition of easy-button concepts alongside extended play opportunities.

PositiveProjection0:33

Justin Herbert should be a top-10 quarterback this year and belongs in the tier with other elite QBs, though he won't run as much as top-three fantasy quarterbacks.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

848

0:00There has been a massive shift at the quarterback position in your fantasy football drafts. Last year, four quarterbacks went in the top four

0:08rounds. This year, just one quarterback drafted right now underdog in the top four rounds. Hayden, simple question, why?

0:15>> Well, last year they didn't perform very well. So, some of those players, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels got hurt. Jaylen Herz didn't have quite the same level

0:23season. And I was just looking uh over at four for four, they posted uh quarterback fantasy points by year by, you know, the first player, second

0:32player all the way down. And you can see in 2021 and 2022, quarterback scoring was off the charts. Even in 2024,

0:37quarterback scoring was really high as well, which is why we had those quarterbacks drafted so early. Then this last year, everything kind of fell off

0:43the cliff. I think for the most part that's small sample size noise. Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, these guys get hurt. We're not going to

0:52have the same type of finishes. Uh, and at the same time, maybe a little bit of the personnel stuff, a little bit more

0:58runheavy, a little less explosive down the field because of the two high shell.

1:02I think that accounts for a little bit of it, but I don't think this is going to be like a forever downwind trail

1:07here. I think it's going to be uh these guys are going to bounce back here. The hard part is everybody's grouped

1:13together and try to figure out which quarterback three versus quarterback five. I think that's the difficult part this season.

1:19>> We talked about this among the tight end group, how that conversation, how that narrative has changed yeartoear. I would say over the last seven years, there's

1:27been a big shift in where to draft quarterbacks. Typically, in all of your leagues out there that are reddrafted, that are season long, uh, you know,

1:35eight years ago, all about grabbing the late round guy with rushing upside. Then the entire fantasy industry, they all fantasy drafters like you got smarter

1:42and drafted those guys much earlier. I know I was in the camp last year of willing to draft elite quarterback very

1:49very early on. I'm not saying that that was wrong. I am saying that I think it's becoming more and more difficult to like

1:56find the one difference maker outside of the top 15 quarterbacks that then becomes a tried andrue starter out there for the entire season. I mean Drake May

2:06was the quarterback 13 last year. We ranked him even higher than that. And you know, he finished as one of the top

2:11scorers. And in fact, Trevor Lawrence, I guess, really became that late rounder as a quarterback 19 last year and finished much much higher than that for

2:18a vast majority of the season.

2:20>> Yeah. A lot of the guys like the Malik Willis, Kyler Murray tier, who I would kind of qualify as like this year's like

2:25sleepers. They're still, you know, ranked quarterback 14, quarterback 18 in that range. So, I think it's going to be pretty difficult to find that total

2:32freak that came out. I I do think Jackson Dart was that to an extent this last season uh because he was so dynamic

2:38as a rusher. So rushing is always going to help out here a lot. I just will say a lot of the top 10 quarterbacks right

2:44in the smack in the middle of their primes. So I think it's a good year to kind of be buying into like the top uh

2:5015 or so quarterbacks here. And uh I'm not doing as much late round quarterback because man, we have to figure out how

2:56how many of Jacobe Brassette starts are we getting the Falcons quarterbacks, those type of guys. So, I'm kind of just hovering at the top.

3:03>> I'll also add that I believe that coaching changes and specifically offensive coordinator and play caller changes uh impact quarterback and

3:09quarterback scoring more than maybe any other position. And four of your eight top quarterbacks have changes in that department this year. So, we're going to

3:18dive into all of that conversation here today. Again, this ends our early rankings for all these positions. We already have wide receivers at running

3:25backs and tight ends on the table. And trust me, we've got plenty, and I mean plenty, of fantasy content with the only

3:31goal for you to win your fantasy leagues. So, hit that subscribe button and it's totally free to all of you.

3:37This will surprise no one. Josh Allen is your quarterback one on an island here as a 27th overall player with a jump to

3:44the next one down to 53rd overall. Why?

3:48>> He's just so consistent uh over the last uh four seasons. This is fantasy points over replacement per game, which is my

3:54favorite metric to look uh by position across positions. And he's finished 14th overall, 25th, 30th, and then last year another 30th overall finish. His ADP

4:0430th overall. I don't know how you can argue against it. Uh he took some more sacks this last year. actually wasn't

4:10even his best season versus some of the other uh seasons that he just had. But in in comes DJ Moore, who we didn't love

4:17the price tag that they paid. But DJ Moore is certainly an upgrade versus the wide receivers that they had. Uh the

4:22offensive line is mostly back. They're switching out one guy. They're switching out the offensive uh line coach and obviously they have a new head coach,

4:29but it's an internal promotion. So, I think for the most part, nothing's really changed with Josh Allen aside from I would just say that the wide

4:36receiver group is a little bit better and then hopefully Daltton Concaid stays a little bit healthier this year. So, I don't know what you can even say poorly

4:43about Josh Allen right now.

4:44>> Yeah, I think there were only four weeks last season where he finished outside of the top 13 quarterback scorers. I mean,

4:50he is the short yardage quarterback rusher now as well. So, often we think of Jaylen Herds when we think about goal

4:56line scores. That is Josh Allen. He led the NFL of all ball carriers, including running backs, with 13 rushing scores inside of the 10 yard line. And we'll

5:06talk about Jaylen Herds and his decline in that department, too. And so, hey, six points is more than four, which many

5:12of your leagues out there score passing touchdowns. And six points and touchdowns matter in the end more than anything when it comes to fantasy points

5:20overall. Uh, and Josh Allen continues to bring that to the table.

5:23>> 1.1 inside the five carries per game, like easily the most, even ahead of Jaylen Herz. I mean, that's it's incredible stuff.

5:29>> Your next quarterback is Lamar Jackson, and we're already starting a tier break here. He's your 53rd overall player.

5:36Right now, he's being drafted on underdog in the middle of the fifth round. 55 overall. Once again, that's a massive shift versus where he was being

5:47selected last year as the 29th overall player uh towards the end of the third round. So, why the big shift? Uh, and

5:56can Lamar Jackson get right next to Josh Allen by the end of the season?

5:59>> He absolutely can. You just can't trust him the same way you can with Josh Allen because of some of the injuries and then

6:04also the Baltimore Ravens. Uh, they didn't really add to their skill group this season. So, they got better on the I mean, they probably got about the

6:13same. They lose Lindterbomb draft uh a guard in in in inside the top 14, but for the most part, it's like kind of the

6:19same thing with Lamar Jackson in terms of the skill guys and just like has not been good enough. And then Lamar Jackson

6:25just has been dealing with some of these injuries. And I hope that his hamstring is healthy and he can keep running

6:29around like he was. But last year, even aside from the hamstring injury, he just did not feel quite as comfortable inside

6:35the pocket as he did two seasons ago when I thought he was the best quarterback in the NFL by far. Uh but he

6:40can easily get back there. So three previous seasons to the bad one last year. He finished 45th overall, 43rd overall, and then 24th overall. So, I'm

6:48kind of believing in that three-year sample size a lot more than this last one when he was like very clearly playing through injuries. So, I I wish

6:55the Ravens did more for him. I like Jesse Mer as a head coach, but uh offensive coordinator wise um and skill

7:02position wise, nothing too crazy.

7:04>> I kind of love this price tag for Lamar Jackson. I understand it's just ahead of this huge chunk of quarterbacks that go

7:10in round six. I mean, right now there are five of them, but like at the start of round five, it's it's Dave

7:15Montgomery, which we really appreciate the volume that Dave Montgomery is going to get, but I think we can maybe poke a

7:20few holes in that profile because it is all volume based. Uh, and then it's like DJ Moore right in front of him. And

7:27again, that's a volume-based wide receiver. At the same time, could easily make the case that DJ Moore has had like his best season ever as a professional.

7:34It might be downhill from here. What I'm most fascinated by with Mar Jackson though is Declan Doyle coming in as his

7:42play caller because we saw Todd Monk and now the Browns head coach take him to the next level. So what will Declan

7:48doyle do with him? Um I mean Doyle comes from the Ben Johnson staff and the great Ted Nin over at the Athletic pointed

7:56this out that Lamar uh his EPA per drop back on and under center play action over the last two seasons uh was number

8:03one across the league. So, if we get like 10 to 15 to 20% more of that, which I expect here with Monin, who like to

8:10really spread things out, uh, work in that shotgun aspect, uh, that could be a really interesting and new wrinkle here from a former MVP quarterback.

8:19>> Yeah, Lamar Jackson play action rate last year was only at 23%, which is about league average. So, that would be

8:25helpful there. Um, he's really just got to be back to full health and, you know, he's still in the athletic prime of his

8:30career if he can get back on the football field. He was out there for what, the first practice uh of the

8:35offseason. That was a big deal in Baltimore.

8:36>> We have to uh you know remove the flu-l like symptoms from the Baltimore area when it gets to November and holiday

8:42time in December. Uh yeah, I mean he has missed games in five of seven seasons so far. Your next quarterback I think kind

8:50of goes against the grain of the styling of quarterback that we like to take recently at the top of drafts. That is

8:57Joe Burrow as your quarterback 2 56 overall. Excuse me, quarterback 3, 56 overall. just a couple spots later, five of the final six starts were quarterback

9:0611 or better. So, what are you expecting with the changes to the Cincinnati Bengals and how that impacts Burrow here?

9:12>> So, we have underdog projections right now in the pick them lobby for for the upcoming season. He has the highest uh

9:18touchdown projection right now at 32 and a half for passing and then he's one of just a handful of quarterbacks over

9:254,000 passing yards. Obviously, that's what we should expect is he could be the league leader in the passing volume stats. uh he says this is one of the

9:33most talented rosters that he's been a part of uh in a very long time and I do believe that the offensive line is not

9:40elite but is way better than where it was three four seasons ago when you know Joe Burrow was a top five fantasy

9:47quarterback. So, uh, it's just kind of gone. Is he healthy or is he not? And, uh, right now he's healthy, ready to go.

9:56And usually in the offseason, >> yeah, but usually he's like on crutches at this point or all of a sudden >> I don't want to laugh at a guy who gets

10:04banged up, but like he has missed large chunks of seasons, you know, two of the last three years and offseasons. Like

10:12they simply have never had >> a easy preseason. Uh that would go a long way here.

10:18>> It really would. Yeah. I I just think this is a great year to kind of like the Bengals like re-entering themselves into

10:25like the NFL conversation. Like the defense should be much better than it was last year, but just by default, they added some pieces uh uh this uh off

10:34seasonason in the draft and in free agency and especially in like the the secondary. Um and then Joe Burrow's healthy, T. Higgins and Jamar Chase are

10:41healthy. I think the offensive line is squared away. So, like this seems like this could be, you know, the 4,500 passing yard season from Joe Burrow.

10:48Again, >> we're going to have this discussion with Dak Prescott, too. Um, how even going from awful to average defensively, I

10:56think a lot of people out there might say, "Oh, that sucks." You know, they're not going to be chasing points. They're

11:01not going to be chasing scoreboard. It's not pure drop backs every single time.

11:05My opinion with this has been wildly different than a lot of drafters out there where I I actually like when defenses improve because it sets you up

11:15to have better field position. It sets you up to lead on the scoreboard. It sets you up to have more wins. It, you

11:22know, sets you up for shorter fields, right? And I think oftentimes we think about garbage points and only throwing and all that type of stuff in in second

11:32halves, whereas, you know, the best teams that win can also put up the most points. And I think Joe Burrow and the

11:39Bengals and Dak Prescott and Dallas Cowboys who actually benefit from having improved defenses.

11:44>> I think it's only a bad thing when you're defense is really elite and you're just blowing teams out and you're

11:49just not getting third and fourth quarter production. Uh, but if you have an okay defense and you're the games are tight, you're passing the ball if you

11:56have a Joe Burrow. And if your defense stinks and you're trying to come back, you're still passing the ball. So, I

12:00think the only thing with if Joe Burrow all of a sudden had the best defense in the league, which we are a decade away

12:05from that ever being a possibility, I think it's fine either way.

12:08>> Like, we've talked about it with Jaylen Herz in the past where how few passes he's attempted in second halves and

12:13fourth quarters, but at the same time, in those seasons, Jaylen Herz was also a top three, top five quarterback scorer.

12:19Because if your team is leading by that much in second halves, then your quarterback has probably had a heavy hand in producing points on the

12:26scoreboard.

12:27>> Yeah. Uh other note here similar to this strength of schedule, like over the last like week or so, there's so much

12:32strength of schedule analysis. I just looked at the difference between the easiest strength of schedule and the least uh uh difficult strength of

12:40schedule from this last season. The EPA difference is like 0.1. It's almost nothing. So like we make a big deal out

12:48of it because there's nothing to say in May. Strength of schedule doesn't really matter uh over the entire course of the

12:53season. We can nitpick like hey we like this guy in week one and like we should focus on that but over the entire course

12:58of the season doesn't really matter. I say I would put the how good your defense is also largely doesn't matter.

13:03>> Okay. Your first I wouldn't say big shift but shift from ADP where the public is drafting is you have Caleb

13:09Williams as your quarterback four. Right now he's being select selected as the quarterback six, but again in that same round six territory. So what gives you

13:20the confidence to put Caleb here?

13:21>> He's just like bred for fantasy points.

13:23So the way that he scrambles around, he can be used inside the red zone. He could have crazy explosives down the

13:29football field. And the arm talent is just so out of control. And his just ability to throw on the run is so out of

13:35control that I just want to believe in him going to his third season, his second season with Ben Johnson. I want

13:40to believe in Coulson Lovelin, Luther Burden, and Roma Dunce is like a very real trio moving forward. The offensive line, they fixed it the last season.

13:48They got a little bit of a left tackle issue right now, but they got a lot of depth to throw at it. I just fully

13:53believe in. And Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, uh, in the playoffs and in December looked a lot better and more comfortable than he did in September and

14:00then some of the initial reports out of training camp and before that. So, I'm just like believing in the trajectory here. when he was coming out uh at USC,

14:09he was supposed to be like one of the best players in the NFL and like what happens in like year three, year four,

14:15year five, that's when we actually see it. So, I'm pretty much like throwing away the rookie season. I'm throwing away some of the September games and

14:22like we kept talking about on Stats versus Films. It's like, "Hey, do you watch the Bears game on review?" And then we both say yes. It's like Caleb

14:29played way better than he did the previous week. We kept saying that. So, I just think that I'm going to take that

14:33and push it to this next season. And last year he was already the quarterback's stat.

14:36>> Yeah, I mean his I would say athleticism pops. His scrambling pops and kind of feel for that area. Uh his arm obviously

14:45is outstanding when on the move. The torque that he brings to the table is simply fantastic. And with that said, there are still obvious areas where he

14:54can improve his game. And if those get better and namely like these intermediate and specifically downfield passing, I'm not saying it's all him,

15:02you know, some of it's the connection that he had with DJ Moore or lack of with Roma Dunce. Shout out James. Uh

15:08then, you know, the timing, the placement, a lot of those passes being on, you know, the the same area of the

15:15field and on the same wavelength, it just wasn't there enough. hopefully more time on task, more time together here in year two of this entire system and this

15:24almost all entire personnel comes back together and and that simply improves because the arm is certainly there for him to be one of the best vertical

15:31passers and downfield passers in the NFL. We just haven't seen that like work itself out game to game so far.

15:39>> His accuracy has not been uh that of the first overall pick yet. And hopefully he can kind of square that away. And I

15:44think that playing on time, the, you know, his wide receivers being in the right spot, they're not running out of bounds uh in the middle of the plays,

15:50those type of things I think will improve uh kind of the the little weaknesses that we still have there.

15:55>> Yeah, look, progression isn't linear, but you can see on this chart from like week 13 and then you get to week 17 that

16:01like that's a pretty good trajectory, and that's certainly what it felt like for a large portion of of his season that uh the stats might have some blips

16:09and some holes in them. Again, certainly not a perfect and complete player at this point, but uh I think the tools are

16:15there for him to be a complete player on top of it. All right, Jaden Daniels is up next as your quarterback five.

16:23Someone who I was relentlessly drafting right now and previously last year and that didn't work out because of an injury. Uh and I was drafting him mainly

16:32in that area, Hayden, because his rookie season he finished as the quarterback five in points per game. So, I might argue we're getting a bit of a discount

16:40here because of that second season.

16:42>> Yeah, last year I'm like largely just throwing it away. I mean, he was injured the entire time. Got a new uh play

16:46caller in there uh two seasons ago as a as a rookie. He was the 39th overall player in that metric I keep

16:52referencing. He's being drafted way after that. I rank him way after that.

16:56So, there's room for upside with Jaden Daniels here. I will say the skill group is not my favorite. Uh they have no

17:03running backs. They have I guess we like Chika Quano and their blocking tight ends uh to some degree. We like Terry

17:10McLuren maybe more as a a fringe two slash one than a true number one. And they don't have a wide receiver two wide

17:16receiver three right now unless Antonio Williams becomes a guy. So there's a way where all this stuff kind of pieces together and Jaden Daniels is amazing.

17:25He also is one of the guys is the most narrowly built quarterbacks like we've ever seen and then unfortunately it was

17:31like three different injuries. uh last season because of him getting hit specifically. So, I I think that he's going to project extremely well whenever

17:42he's out there and then I would put him towards the top of most likely to miss time because of his play style and size.

17:49>> I can't wait to see him in this change of an offense. Like the Cliff King stuff his rookie year, uh they really took it

17:55easy on him early on. It was quite simple, quite basic, but man, he mastered all of that. And then Cliff kind of added more and more as the

18:03season went along. A lot of stuff was wide open. There was yards after catch opportunities. Uh, but again, he had playmaking ability and they maximized

18:12everything with it. Now you have David Blau in his really first time calling plays. he was already on the staff, so

18:18it's not like he doesn't know Jane Daniels or doesn't know his skill set, but they really want to kind of combine

18:25this Ben Johnsonesque passing game. I mean, from our buddy Rich Reebar, Jane Daniels only has 33 drop backs from under center so far in his career that

18:34has led to just overall an offense with low pre- snap motion, 24th in that same span of time, and then 18th in play

18:44action. So, if you're talking about this styling of an offense that they want, uh, you're going to be top 10, top 12 in

18:51both pre- snap motion and play action.

18:54And if Jane Daniels can handle that, and if this offense, despite the lack of like true difference makers, can handle that, then I think that

19:03>> Jane has a chance of finishing, I think, as the overall quarterback one this season. again, despite having a lesser surrounding cast than many of the names

19:10we're going to talk about here, >> he's going to have to riv off some explosives and like really show showcase that elite speed that he has and he has

19:15to be at full health in order to do that. But I do think this entire tier that we're talking about uh they have

19:20the chance to match Josh Allen um if not surpass him in like the best of seasons.

19:25And then uh I had the same exact notes for the play action. Caleb Williams was second in play action rate last year.

19:30Jared Goff was top 10. And then you have to scroll all the way down to find uh Jaden Daniels like you said. And I found

19:37it interesting that Marcus Mariota was actually really high on play action rate last year in the same exact offense. So um they're they're still trying to

19:43figure things out exactly up front, skill possession wise, the offense in general. Uh Jaden's just been a fantasy football printfest. Uh even going back

19:52to the LSU days.

19:53>> Now they have invested a ton in the offensive line. Like it's Larry Tonsel, it's Sam Cosby at right guard, Josh

19:58Connelly at right tackle. they bring the same left guard back in Chris Paul and a different center now with Tyler Bottes.

20:04But at the same time, if if that group stays healthy, that should be again a platform for them to work off of.

20:09>> They did give away their starting center, Tyler Bottes, for for nothing.

20:14And that was something that was very command wasn't reading the market very well with how all these centers were getting paid.

20:19>> No, they they uh the Chargers signed up for more money than they saved by releasing them. Never never good.

20:26>> Very very true. Uh, by the way, my voice, I apologize for it. Just the greatest football club in the world. Uh,

20:31you know, just a European champion. So, uh, you know, had had to rep it and lose my voice a little bit. Okay. Jaylen Herz

20:39is your quarterback six. Big conversation here. All right. We know about the passing struggles last season.

20:45We know Shawn Manian was brought in, former quarterback himself, to uh, fix things. We can talk about the passing here in a moment, but maybe more from a

20:54fantasy lens. Hayden, my big question is this. Seven rushing touchdowns inside the 10 yard line last year. In 2024, that was 13. Is this a concerning trend

21:05for us?

21:06>> Well, we talked about this with Dallas.

21:07There was a couple of those uh like tush pushes that he would fling the ball over to Dallas for a touchdown himself there.

21:13So, yeah, I mean 13 15 rushing touchdowns like those type of seasons are like the outlier seasons and that's when Jaylen Herz was right up there. I

21:20was like in the mix for quarterback one overall. The baseline projection whenever you're doing things is like Jayen Hurst is going to score eight and

21:26a half touchdowns this upcoming season.

21:28So maybe the the offense wasn't quite as good as we were hoping for last year and it came down even further than that. I

21:33think the baseline would be somewhere between those two numbers that you just threw out there and that he will finish in this range. I think like to me the

21:39the biggest thing with Jaylen Herds is how good is the offensive line because last year it was more mediocre than elite because of all the injuries and

21:47now all those guys are back and they're healthy today but it's about you know is their back going to give out. Uh and

21:53then second is Jaylen Herz has been fantastic against man coverage because he has two superstarred wide receivers.

22:00Well, one of them's not on the team anymore. Uh and I really like Mai Lemon and Eli Sters is interesting. Um, but

22:07it's not AJ Brown in his prime and Jaylen Herz has not been like Mr. Read it out against zone coverage. So, is

22:13Shawn Manion good enough versus what we've been dealing with at OC to make up for the difference between prime AJ Brown when Jayen Herz was a top three

22:20fantasy quarterback versus where I think I'm more comfortable with him. He's going to be a mid-range quarterback one.

22:26I think the odds of him getting back to the top three are not my favorite and that's why he's now in the 60s7s rather

22:32than in the 30s or 40s. You know, we've seen two drastically different, let's say, on the spectrum play callers here for Jaylen Herz. You have the ones that

22:43go on to be head coaches, uh, and Shane Syiken and Kellen Moore, and they can coax pull like certain elements of

22:51Jaylen Herz's game where he's uncomfortable, but they tr he they make him trust them and he can, you know, work multiple parts of the field. the

23:02other ones in the Brian Johnson's and everything else that we've gotten since then. Uh it just doesn't work. And when it doesn't work, like Jaylen kind of

23:10goes into a shell and it really impacts the passing game because only certain concepts can be run. Like I don't think

23:17that Jaylen Herz is going to miraculously be better at targeting certain areas of the field that he didn't love before. But the big key is

23:25can they run the ball successfully in order to generate single high looks.

23:30That is the entire difference, right? Uh can Saquon Barkley and this offensive line be ahead of the chains and create explosives enough that you can have

23:40Devonte Smith and Mai Lemon work man-to-man coverage and single high looks. And if that's the case, then you're going to have a really successful

23:48season. Uh so as you know, critical as I am of Jaylen Herz is like a pure passer, I can also say it wasn't just him why

23:56the offense was different last year. And I would say even more so it was the uh regression of the rushing game.

24:04>> 17th in EPA per carry last year. So right there in the middle of the pack they used to be first or second every

24:10single season. So he's a system of you know the Eagles like just elite uh front office and skilled players and offensive

24:17line. And when he has it all he can win a Super Bowl with ease and then when it starts to fall apart he looks more

24:23average. Um, so I think we're probably in the middle of the both polls because I thought last year play calling wise

24:29for the Eagles was pretty close to a disaster in terms of like scheming things up and pass protection rules and that type of thing. And I'm guessing

24:38that's just going to get a little bit better. Um, even if we are going to miss AJ Brown, not like AJ Brown was like an

24:42allp pro player last year either.

24:44>> No, he he's definitely had his flaws last year too. He uh Jaylen Herz was being drafted as the 43rd overall player

24:49last season uh and is being drafted as the 67th overall player this year. Uh another thing from Ted win over the at

24:58the athletic the Packers ranked fourth in explosive rush rate from shotgun over the last two seasons where Jaylen Herz loves to live outside of what that

25:06Vikings game last year where they scored like two big time touchdowns that you know was going back against their tendencies. Uh and then he's like

25:13actually I'm never doing that again despite it working. Uh obviously Shawn Manian's coming from that Packers coaching staff. Uh and since 2020,

25:20Jaylen Herz ranks 85th of 88 eligible quarterbacks in percentage of throws between the numbers below 15 air yards.

25:28So again, it goes to uh areas of the field that he is simply not comfortable with. But again, he is just tied to like

25:36the rushing success because that gives them advantageous looks that he can maximize. I will say that Packers offense is very vertical, you know, and

25:44like shotgun play action, vertical shots. That's kind of what Jaylen Herz is good at. So like out of all of like

25:48there's there's a lot of similarities between the two. So I think that >> I mean obviously Howie Roseman's been a really smart GM. Him looking at this

25:56Packers offense and being like this is the best version for my quarterback is just smart game planning by them. And I

26:02do think the offense is not going to feel a whole lot different than what it was the last couple seasons. Hopefully

26:07just like the downto down consistency and like all the little details that we're not privy to. Uh hopefully that just gets cleaned up. Plus, you know,

26:14Dickerson playing better, Jurgens playing better than Lane Johnson being on the football field.

26:18>> Yeah. And I was going to say the same thing with like Jordan Love. You wouldn't say that he is a dice him up

26:24over the middlefield type quarterback.

26:25He's more of an ambitious thrower down the field, outside the numbers, all that type of stuff. I do want to rewind this

26:31quickly to the start of this conversation. I mean, Jaylen Hirz just isn't the type of mover and scrambler and athlete that he was, I think, a

26:38handful of years ago. There was that game early on the season where he basically won it because of his scrambling, but I actually think that he

26:45is less willing to take a pounding when it comes to the tush push and the short yards rushing things. So, I think I'm a

26:52bit more skeptical of him, you know, getting back to a double digit rushing score or even close like the 13 that he

26:58had a couple years ago.

26:59>> Yeah, I think that's probably pretty fair. He's at 474 rushing yards in the projections right now. He was the quarterback six this last season. It

27:07probably that feels about right to me.

27:09>> Next up, Drake May in this same tier. What a season for him last year. Talk about ambitious throwers just launching the

27:19pill to uh a lot of wide receivers like Kahan Booty that we didn't have a lot of expectation for. Um you had Matt Collins

27:28out there now. Not too much has changed as of this moment. We are hoping that AJ Brown joins the party here after, you

27:35know, June 1st. And if that's the case, Hayden, what can Drake may be here in year two with Josh McDaniels in staff?

27:43>> Yeah, I mean, his arrow is just continuing to point straight up. The offensive line is still a little bit shaky to me at left tackle. They're got

27:50a new center in there who's never played NFL center before. So there's there's some parts of this Patriots offense that is not perfect, but the skill group

27:57we're going to feel a lot better with AJ Brown there. They've got some depth and Kyle Williams, Eli Raridan is the tight

28:02end too now instead of Austin Hooper. So it's not the worst uh case scenario for for Drake May. I will acknowledge

28:07there's some negative regression stuff just based off the profile here. Last year he led all quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected,

28:14which is how often you complete passes versus how far the ball is being thrown down the football field. He was by far

28:21number one in that metric. That typically kind of comes down a little bit and a lot of that was because all of

28:26his numbers like 20 yards down the football field and more. It's like I mean he didn't miss the entire football season. So uh maybe he's that good. Uh

28:33and this is just what we're going to get used to here. Um didn't want to mention 6'4 230 and he can run like Josh Allen.

28:41So like we don't see like the the crazy rushing stuff like we have with Josh Allen. It's it's within his capabilities

28:47if they ever wanted to pull that trigger. Yeah, I think he can do more than he did last year. And you know,

28:53going back to his rookie season when it was turmoil with Don Mayo and company.

28:57Uh they didn't have a design run call from him at all.

29:00>> Obviously his scrambling is outstanding.

29:02He did have 450 yards, which is the fourth most among all quarterbacks last year, but it did stand out to me just

29:07four rushing scores. Like I think he has it in his back pocket that he could have a like Trevor Lawrence, what is it, like

29:15nine rushing score season, seven rushing score season. uh if just a couple things go a bit differently inside the seven or

29:21inside of the five yard line. That's just, you know, kind of the uh regression area of the field where it sometimes works out for the rushing

29:29quarterback and the scrambling quarterback and sometimes it doesn't.

29:32>> Uh other things people are going to talk about the strength of schedule from those last seasons like Drake really struggled in the playoffs which like

29:38there's definitely like a degree of some truth to that. That said, uh I have my my new website here. I have filters

29:44where you can change it by how good the defense was. And when he was playing an above average defense, the Patriots were

29:49still fourth in EPA per drop back. That includes those postseason games on top of that. So, in general, quarterbacks are just as good in year three as they

29:59were in year two. Um, and we're about to get better at the skill group here. So, Drake May, this is a little bit lower

30:07than where he ranked last year because of the regression stuff, but all these guys could finish as a quarterback one, two, or three. And that's why they're

30:14all grouped right next to each other.

30:15>> Well, let's talk about the next name because he is your quarterback eight and I believe he's being drafted as the

30:22quarterback nine. He's going to start the next tier. I would argue as we go throughout this off season, >> I think he's going to vault up into the

30:31next grouping. And I think you can make an argument that Justin Herbert selected right now as a 11th pick in the seventh

30:39round might be the best value at quarterback on the board. What are you expecting here with I mean some significant changes just from getting

30:47yes two healthy first round offensive tackles back and adding Mike McDaniel as a play caller.

30:52>> Yeah. And then the interior too. Biatic is like a real center. Um we're talk complaining with Jaden Daniels like they

30:58just added him as well. So they have to figure out the guard spot but in between the guards you have very good players at

31:03all spots. Obviously uh we have a lot of faith in the coaching staff and Justin Herbert to figure it out. the the skill

31:09group is largely the same as it was this last season. Uh I just think they're going to be way more dynamic with

31:15McDaniels who we love versus, you know, the great G Roman of it all. So he's somebody that I think the the pick lobby

31:21he's sitting there a little bit too low.

31:23His passing touchdowns only at 24 and a half. His passing yards are at in the middle of the 3600 club. Uh I like him

31:30more than that. Last year's stat it's hard to even like factor any of it in because he was just getting absolutely

31:35hammered. I mean like I don't even know what you can say about any of last season and still he was a quarterback of

31:4114. I mean with Greg Roman and no offensive line >> there there are some onoffs Hayden that just let me say some words here because

31:50he was the quarterback two and overall scoring through nine weeks before the Joe Alt injury.

31:56>> Wow. Now he gets Raan Slater, Joe Alt, Mike McDaniel, as you said, Tyler Bottes. And look, Mike McDaniel

32:06defense is caught up to Tua's limitations, right? Certain areas of the field, he could not throw to certain time to throw, he can't hang the ball,

32:13right? Physical limitations in terms of an athlete outside and unextended place.

32:17He just doesn't have it. Herbert doesn't have any of those limitations. So like what is Mike McDaniel who already generated a top five top six offense

32:27with the quarterback with major limitations going to be able to do here with Justin Herbert again citing this 10 to win piece. Mike McDaniel discussed in

32:35his news conference last week that maximizing the yardage when Justin Herbert threw for 2.4 seconds or faster.

32:42He talked about changing his footwork and changing where his eyes are on those concepts. That change will allow Herbert to get rid of the football faster, more

32:48accurately, which should lead to more yards after catch opportunities. We know last year all those passes were kind of static. It was hitches. It was just

32:56stuff to Greg Roman specials and we hated it. So we have like the extended play put the team on your back stuff

33:02with Justin Herbert when you need it.

33:04And now there's just going to be easy button stuff more often too if he gets in sync on the timing and rhythm and the

33:10landmarks of everything. I am so excited for this. I understand there's a section of football, you know, podcasting and Twitter and content out there that hates

33:18us glowingly talking about Justin Herbert, but man, this stuff can go to the moon this year. And I'm so pumped for this combination

33:25>> if man. Yeah. Uh I think that he belongs in this tier. Uh because he's just not going to run quite as much to be a top

33:31three fantasy quarterback over the course of the season. But I I would be stunned if he's not a top 10 quarterback

33:37this year. The Chargers are going to win a lot of games. Well, with that in mind, the people are drafting pocket passer

33:43Dak Prescott ahead of Justin Herbert.

33:46So, what are your thoughts on Dak heading into another season with two elite wide receivers on the outside and the inside?

33:52>> He's one of three quarterbacks projected for over 4,000 yards in the underdog picking lobby right now. And I mean, this offense returns everybody. And

34:01he'll actually have CD Lamb probably for the entire season rather than him missing about half the a quarter of the season due to injury. So, this offensive

34:09line is not as good as where it was when Dak Prescott was like an MVP candidate, but it's functional and it all returns.

34:16And now he has, you know, freaking George Pickins as a two, even though he might be like a top 10 freaking receiver

34:21in the NFL. So, he's in the ball out.

34:23There's nothing negative I can say here.

34:25Maybe two years ago, I thought his accuracy uh was falling off and he was like forcing those like seam balls, which he always does, but he the

34:33accuracy wasn't there. At the same time, he was playing through injuries in that season. this last year, all the accuracy numbers that I look at, completion

34:40percentage over expected, they all go back to where his rest of career baseline looks. So, there's not like an age cliff that we're worried about or

34:47too many injuries. Two years ago, he was just injured. We're not expecting him to be injured right now. So, I think that

34:52he's going to throw the ball around the yard and I think this team's going to be really good. I >> already mentioned the defensive changes

34:59and how the improvements can actually help Dak Prescott. Also, Dak has been a top eight scorer in points per game in

35:05five of his past six seasons. He's just so effective, so efficient throwing those seams, throwing those downfield passes. Uh, and so while he's listed as

35:16quarterback nine, we can have some injuries ahead of him that vaults him into that quarterback eight. Like Dak is I think one of the safest picks out

35:21there despite him, you know, really not having any of that scrambling juice as he used to prior to those what ankle

35:28injuries, those foot injuries. And then now uh he's just still so cerebral I think as a pocket passer.

35:34>> Yep. George Pickkins round three.

35:36Sometimes you can get him with Dak Prescott. I mean that's that's easy money right there.

35:39>> Let's talk about Jackson Dart who's being selected 91st overall. You have him 89th overall. uh interesting rookie season with play

35:50calling, not changes, but head coach getting fired mid-season despite him, you know, doing some really solid things and really good things here with Jackson

35:58Dart and now it's Na Naggi entering the time frame. So, will we see the same nine rushing touchdowns in 14 games that

36:07Jackson Dart played last year?

36:08>> Probably not. Brian Dable definitely wanted Jackson Dart to get going there.

36:12That said, Jackson Dart is like a really thick quarterback who's got athletic traits and like he's ran throughout his entire collegiate career on top of that.

36:19So, he's not going back to zero when it comes to the rushing stuff. It's going to be somewhere in, you know, the Dak

36:25Prescott uh range where you're adding some in the prime of your career, even though you're not going to be Jaylen Herz. Um I will say this, he didn't have

36:34any games with Malik Neighbors last year and he was still a quarterback one for for the season. Like, that's that's outrageous stuff. and his EPA per play

36:42and success rate were about league average when he was throwing to Juan Robinson as by far his best wide receiver. The hard part is Malik

36:52Neighbors is probably going to miss September. So like if you're only drafting for a reddraft, the Jackson Dart projections might not be quite as

36:58good. Uh but by the end of the season, if Malik Neighbors is like back to himself and Jackson Dart's taking his

37:04second year leap uh and reading things out because last year he he was explosive in every capacity, reading things out was still uh there's some

37:12development that needed to happen and we should expect that to only get better moving forward. He had some crazy splits with Cam Scaboo as well. I think that

37:20Naggi offense is going to be generally pretty balanced here. Um, but it is Matt Naggie and we've not we've not loved him

37:28calling plays whenever he has.

37:29>> I wanted to get a temperature check from you on Matt Naggie and Jackson Dart because like if Todd Monin didn't get

37:36the head coaching job with the Cleveland Browns, he was going to be the offensive coordinator here and I think you and I

37:39would have been freaking excited for that. Yes. Matt Naggie a little bit less because like there's nothing I would say exciting about Kansas City system over

37:49these last couple years. And now that's not even Andy Reid calling this offense.

37:52It's Matt Naggie calling it. And like there's also been tons of conversation about how runheavy Harbaugh wants this Giants offense to be. So just

38:02temperature check overall with the Giants passing game.

38:05>> I think they will be really runheavy. I think they're going to lean on Cam Scaboo a ton, but I also think they're

38:10going to use Jackson Dart uh and they can steal a lot of the concepts they had with Lamar Jackson with Jackson Dart,

38:15even if they like the rushing styles are are a little bit different there.

38:18though. I still think the rushing stuff is going to be like help him be a top 12 quarterback. I would be uh I will not be

38:25stunned if this is a bottom 10 and neutral pass rate in just like pace of play. The offensive line should be

38:31better though. You get Andrew Thomas like not dealing with crazy injuries. Uh Francis Malinoa moving to guard is like a total uh brick house up front. So

38:39that's really promising. And then this is another one of these defenses Josh whereas like they were dead last in like every rushing category. Like they could

38:46not get off the football field. So there were many second halfs where the Giants would have just like not have the ball a

38:52ton because their run defense was so bad. And that should get a lot better even if they traded away Dexter Lawrence. Like Harbaugh being in there,

38:58they draft uh Sunny Styles or uh Arvin Re Arbell Reese that high. And I think the defense should look a little bit

39:05better, too.

39:06>> Yeah. I mean, we've heard from Harbaugh that the world might end if they give up an average of 4.1 yards per carry on

39:12defense. So, we don't want the world to end. We want to watch some football games.

39:16>> That's for sure. All right, my guy Trevor Lawrence winds up as your quarterback 11. Um, he's being drafted around in that same area. Last year at

39:26this time was being selected as the quarterback 19 and drastically overperformed that. And to the degree, Hayden, from week seven to the end of

39:36the year, Trevor was the quarterback one in points per game.

39:40>> Yeah, I have it. When Jacobe Myers was a part of the football team, he was the quarterback two. That's the last eight

39:45games including the NFL postseason only behind Josh Allen and then without him he was the quarterback 15. So it's like Jacobe Myers is like

39:52>> it's also the by-week. There's like a lot of these factors going in. It's also you know Travis Hunter getting injured.

39:58It's also with Jacobe Myers and it makes sense here. they actually had someone who was effective at working the intermediate portion over the middle of

40:06the field and would be willing to make those catches versus coming short with them alligator arming or like in Travis Hunter's case like not knowing where to

40:13line up and everything of that sort. Uh so he had a true NFL veteran wide receiver attacking the area of the field

40:21that Liam Cohen's offenses are built around.

40:24>> And then Parker Washington like copy paste all that what we just talked about. Parker Washington was like even more effective than Jacobe Myers was. So

40:30like everything kind of came together. I think what you said is the true part is like the more time on task with Liam

40:36Cohen who top five play caller in the league. I mean this is like backto-back seasons where he's just like a total uh maniac

40:43calling plays. Uh he should get a lot better as a head coach because like you said while his play designs were good

40:50getting the freaking play called in was a total total debacle. Um so hopefully they kind of clean up the operations here. Trevor Lawrence was running uh

40:59enough to like bring up his fantasy point total and then he can get hot in a game because when he's accurate, he

41:06wants to push the ball down the field.

41:07When those balls are being completed, he can really take off. Sometimes he'll throw some bad interceptions, the ball will get away from him at times, which

41:13is why he's not all the way up there.

41:15But I think like we've created a baseline here. Like last year when he was like hovering between quarterback two and quarterback 15, like he's going

41:21to live there. And then just kind of comes down to how good is Brian Thomas?

41:25How much wide receivers is Travis Hunter playing? Is Parker Washington legit?

41:28Jacobe Myers holding the line. So, um I I think he's in good shape.

41:32>> I think you could argue that the rushing attack might be worse this season, too.

41:36So, the reliance on his passing game and short yardage rushing could still be there. like nine rushing scores every single year just isn't going to happen

41:44for Trevor Lawrence, but it might happen again this year just with, you know, some of the scrambling and some of the

41:50design rushes inside the seven, inside the five yard line. And he's always had that dating back to his time at Clemson,

41:55too. He just didn't really see it in his first few years.

41:58>> Yeah, inside the five carries. I have it. Josh Allen 1.1 per game. Jaylen Herz point8, Trevor Lawrence 7, third in the

42:05NFL. You know, big guy. Not a big guy is Kyler Murray and he's your next quarterback right after Trevor Lawrence.

42:12Kyler Murray now a Minnesota Viking. Uh his last team the Arizona Cardinals simply did not want him. So now he's playing in the league minimum here with

42:20the Minnesota Vikings. So we always talk about it. This is the Mick Shanahan tree. Are we getting a Mc Shanahan tree

42:27discount at quarterback?

42:29>> Uh not for my rankings. I'm ranking where I think he belongs. I think the ADP is a little bit too low for Kyler

42:34Murray. First of all, I don't think it's going to be a quarterback competition with Jay McCarthy, who every single scatter plot I I pull up, he's in the

42:40very bottom left of uh Kyler Murray, when I went back to watch his tape from last season, because we had a bunch of

42:46Michael Wilson and Mar uh Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride stuff to go through and then Kyler Murray was changing teams. When I went back and

42:52watched those games, how many times did his receivers just drop the football?

42:56So, I know his stats last year were just completely completely like not up the standard. I thought his film was a

43:03little bit better. And more importantly than all of that, Kyler Murray has not had this environment in years. And when he did have DeAndre Hopkins with Cliff

43:10Kingsbury and the offense was fast and they're throwing the ball down the football field, he was a top five fantasy quarterback. It's been many

43:17years since we've had that. But we get Kevin Oonnell, who by the way with Kurt Cousins, uh, three and four years ago,

43:23he was a top 100 overall player in fantasy. Then with Sam Darnold two seasons ago, he had his best fantasy season. He was the 109th overall player.

43:32Those guys don't run and they were fringe top 100 overall players. Kyler Murray should be healthy, ready to go and running around on top of that. So I

43:40think out of all the guys in this tier like who has like the highest fantasy appeal like in terms of raw upside, I

43:47think it is Kyler Murray. Like he he has does obviously has not earned our trust to like Bolton there.

43:52>> Yeah. But after week one, if he has 260 yards uh and 35 rushing yards and he throws a couple deep passes to Jordan

43:59Addison, like we're going to be like, "All right, uh it's ready to go like immediately."

44:03>> Yeah. He's being drafted as quarterback 17 and that's just too low when we're talking about the potential upside here because in this area like I I just want

44:12to draft for a guy that, you know, can win me weeks, literally win me weeks.

44:17And this is one of the coaching trees and I think a play caller that can definitely do that. On the same time, I

44:23don't want to overlook how his time in Arizona just ended. Like, I understand that they technically said he's he's injured, he's on reserve, all this type

44:31of stuff. Dude, he was practicing for multiple weeks and they just did not want to play him, right? And they weren't a good football team. And I

44:39think you can look to some of the stuff on the field, maybe I'm a bit more critical of him than you are, that Kyler

44:44Murray just doesn't follow through with the scheme and the game plan of a play.

44:49uh probably often enough that elite quarterbacks do. And so I think there are some negatives to his actual play style.

44:56>> On the other hand, I can also say that he has obvious physical attributes in terms of athleticism, in terms of his

45:03arm, and especially downfield passing.

45:05Uh, and he's attached to a play caller in Kevin Oonnell that has literally won us weeks with random quarterbacks like Nick Mullins

45:16>> dos from the Cardinals off the freaking airplane >> on three days notice, right? And so I believe I trust in KOC to extract enough

45:27from Kyler Murray and to build an offense around Kyler Murray's strengths that will mask some of the flaws and accentuate a lot of the strengths. So I

45:37am much closer to you as the quarterback 12 than I am where the public is drafting you as the quarterback 17.

45:42>> I wouldn't be surprised if like we do our final August quarterback rankings episode and I have him like next to Dak

45:48Prescott like keep moving him up throughout it all. I mean, it's not really going to be a competition. I think there's stylistically like similar

45:55quarterbacks between Kyler and Sam Darnold who they want to throw the ball down the football field. They have crazy arm talent. Uh, and the rest of their

46:02profile can be a little bit inconsistent. And that's how Kevin Oonnell wants to play. Like, it's like no pass protection rules. Throw the ball

46:08down the football field and if we complete them, we win 14 games. If we don't, we win eight games. And I think

46:15he's just going to have a much better football season. And I I hear you on all the last year's stuff and like obviously

46:21he was not wellliked in that building.

46:24It's also the Cardinals building. I mean it's a it's a complete complete travesty what's going on over there. And uh the

46:31Vikings are completely wellrun. They're always like first in the NFL PA. But at the same time >> better environment.

46:37>> He also made Trey McBride much worse than Trey McBride should have been. Like some of the not seeing him in the end

46:42zone and like not targeting him in that area of the field like that stuff was legitimate to me. He was wide open a lot

46:47of that stuff. And we saw Trey McBride and Michael Wilson just explode without Kyler Murray at quarterback.

46:53>> Yeah, but you don't have to throw the ball six yards down the football field when you got here comes a post route.

46:57Jordan Addison, another post route from the other side with Justin Jefferson and like let's let's party. He's going to be very inconsistent, but let's ride the

47:04wave.

47:04>> All right, continuing on. Let's talk about Brock Party here. Um I drafted a ton of Brock Party last year, mainly

47:10because of the schedule that the San Francisco 49ers had. it was right up there with the New England Patriots as the easiest on the board. Uh he has

47:18finished higher than this quarterback 13 ranking in each of the last three seasons, including years of quarterback eight and quarterback six in points per

47:27game. The schedule obviously isn't anywhere as soft. But the team was also ridiculously injured last year, including himself, and we saw that once

47:35he returned to the field.

47:35>> Yeah, I think Pertie is a really fun quarterback to watch. He can throw guys off of him for how like small he's

47:42short. He's not even small. He's like pretty thick out there. Uh so you get some of the rushing stuff with Brock

47:47Pury. He wants to throw the ball down the football field. Um Mike Evans is an upgrade versus what they had. Hopefully

47:54Ricky Pawol is an upgrade over what he he was himself this last season and then throwing Christian Kirk Deshan Stribbling and then maybe you have

48:01something here. I think there's there's more question marks going into the season just because of the age concerns with everybody including the offensive

48:09line. like Trent Williams is probably not going to be the allpro version of himself. Is the offensive line going to be a lot closer to average? Um at the

48:17same time, Brock Party is just so much better now than where he was a couple seasons ago. And he's he's been Mr.

48:22Reliable um when it turn in terms of his fantasy points whenever he's out there.

48:27He does not have top five quarterback within his range of outcomes. Um but I do think that he is like a fringe

48:33quarterback one. No doubt about it.

48:34>> He's the first pick of the ninth round right now. 97 uh overall and you have him right at 97 overall. Okay, moving

48:44on. Fascinating conversation about Patch Mahomes who is swinging a golf club. He was injured late last year. They did not

48:55make the playoffs and that wasn't just because he uh you know was injured. It's also because that offense freaking sucks to watch. And uh what did they do to fix

49:05that offense this year? got rid of Matt Naggie. I mean, that's Hey, we can't talk about Jackson Dart and not bring it

49:10up with Patrick Mahomes. That's that's a start. Um maybe Rasheed Rice is out there in himself this year. We'll see about that. That's going to be a big

49:17hang up here. The offensive line uh rotating some bodies at the tackle spot, but that should be fine enough. I think

49:25Benemy over Naggi should matter to some degree here. Uh Patrick Mahomes has never been like a goal line rusher, so we shouldn't expect that, but he has

49:33been, you know, buying time and creating some fancy points that way. So, >> do you think it's going to last like

49:38with with this injury? Like it's always in big contests he scrambles a lot >> and last year he actually did a lot of

49:44it. He was the quarterback four in points per game that season, >> right? Because of his running. I am just nervous that after this injury we get

49:52even less of that.

49:53>> Yeah. I almost believe that Mahomes was doing that out of necessity though. And I do wonder if like >> they have to do that again.

50:01>> Well, Kenneth Walker know >> Yeah. Ken Kenneth Walker's gonna help. I I think all of this kind of averages out

50:06and that he's going to be in this range.

50:09I don't think he's at risk of missing week one. I think he's ready to go. I think he's going to be out there really

50:15early into training camp and it's just going to be like you said, what percentage of Momes is he this year? Not

50:23how many games is he going to play? He's going to be out there. I think Rasheed Rice will most likely be out there week

50:28one as well. As much of a headache it always is for May and June. He's literally in jail right now, but I think

50:34that in week one he will be out there.

50:36Um, yeah, it he's not going to reach the highs that he did when he was, you know, throwing 50 touchdowns. They're just

50:42like the offense has completely changed since then. But I feel better about Benemy than Naggie. And to me, that matters to some degree here.

50:49>> I think you pointed this out. Their first two games are prime time contests.

50:52So the NFL probably expects Patrick Holmes to be on the field in week one. I think we should.

50:57>> It's Monday Night Football and then Sunday Night Football. Like if he's not out there, it's Justin Field. The Monday Night Football is not what they want.

51:04>> Bon Knicks is next up for you. I don't know how much I should say. I had some interesting conversations about Shawn

51:11Peyton giving up play calling to Davis Webb and the effect that that can have here. Uh I don't know if he really

51:19wanted to do that. kind of wonder if this is um not a force change, but something that can be difficult for

51:27those of us on the outside to know what extent a shift in Shawn Payeyton calling down plays to Davis Web is going to be.

51:34But what are your expectations here for O Knicks in 2026?

51:38>> Also mentioned that like the Knicks and Shawn Payeyton, you know, relationship for as many ball games as they're winning has been very odd in the media.

51:46So yeah, I think all that's just offseason noise and then for the most part we're going to get to the season

51:50and Shawn Peyton's going to be awesome, you know, setting up his protections.

51:54The offensive line's going to play way better than their talent is and they got a lot of talent up front. Uh and then

52:00dude, he gets Jaylen Wadd. I mean, they threw so many screens and I looked at RPOS's >> to Troy Franklin was like the leader in

52:09like targets and RPOs this last year and then like >> one of like the the leaders in terms of red zone and inside the 10 yard line

52:15targets too.

52:16>> Not good enough. Like not good enough.

52:17Like get Jaylen Wadd in there instead and like this thing can absolutely take off and Courtland Sutton being like a leg very legit number two instead of the

52:26alpha of the team makes a ton of sense.

52:29So, I mean, Bo Knicks the last his first two seasons has finished 99th overall and 104th overall in fantasy points of

52:35replacement per game. And he's adding Jaylen Wadd. The only reason why I have him ranked this like in this spot is

52:42because the ankle injury and there's been like a lot of noise in how many ankle injuries he's had. But, and I

52:48think because we don't trust Bo Knicks as much as we do some of the other quarterbacks in this tier, but I mean,

52:55he finishes here without Jaylen Wadd.

52:57Like you can tell me that Bonix gets even better in his third season. Jaylen Waddle makes a huge difference and then

53:03Bonix finishes at the quarterback six this year. Like that's definitely possible. Next is Matthew Stafford. Um Matthew Stafford finished last season as

53:12a quarterback three in points per game.

53:14He had the touchdown score in Devonte Adams when Pukanakua is out there.

53:19Pukuna is freaking awesome. They just threw the rock over and over and over again. We also don't have the weirdness of the back injury and the airirstream

53:29at training camp hopefully this offseason or maybe hopefully we do because look what it turned to Matthew Stafford this season when I was so

53:36nervous I thought one hit boom who knows what's going to happen and there I was in week seven calling this team the best

53:42in the NFL which they could easily be once again >> in 2026.

53:46>> Yep. If he runs really hot, you can beat the quarterback three and then he, you know, go back to somewhere in his Rams

53:53averages, he's somewhere in the low end quarterback one mix. Then you start adding the age concerns and then I'll just say like the fragility of the wide

54:00receiver room. Then, you know, break a couple ties against him. But he is firmly in this tier. Like Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford are absolutely in

54:06the same fantasy tier to me heading into the season. I had a crazy note on the Dvonte Adams stuff. So, he had the most

54:12uh red zone targets this year at 32. He scored 12 touchdowns that led uh the position. He averaged 2.0 yards per

54:21target uh in the red area because they had so many like one yard line throws from that spot. So obviously all that

54:28stuff >> helps out Matthew Stafford and his touchdowns. Um they're projected for the most points in the league. Um and we

54:37should be buying them.

54:38>> Okay, this next one is an awesome ranking because it's very against consensus. You have Malik Willis as your quarterback 17. Right now, he's being

54:49selected as the quarterback 21. Why do you expect a, you know, sizable gap between you and the public? And do you

54:57think that will shrink and more and more people will come to your side as the summer goes along?

55:01>> I'm guessing so. Especially in reddraft leagues where you don't need his scoring for the back half of the season, you

55:08just need for September. Like, >> he's going to project awesome. I mean, he's the small sample size king. Not even just as a rusher. Like, his passing

55:15stats over the last couple seasons are like quarterback one in EPA per play. He throws the ball down the football field.

55:21I don't know who is going to be throwing the ball down the football field too this year. That's going to be the big

55:26problem. But I don't think we should say the entire Dolphins team is going to be so bad and not at least say, well, by

55:32the way, they do have a new firstrounder that's going to play guard or right tackle for them. They have the best

55:37center in the league and then their left tackle is an athletic freakazoid who's on uh his way to being a perennial pro

55:44bowler. So like for what he wants to do which is stand next to Devon and then run like crazy that I think that's going

55:51to work. Like is the defense going to be able to stop anybody? I don't think so.

55:54Are they going to consistently have a third and eight conversion because they have a wide receiver that can get open?

55:58Probably not. But like the fantasy stuff for Malik Willis is there. And there's, you know, what a 20% chance that Malik

56:04Willis is actually just like a good NFL quarterback. You know, there certainly possible too and where he actually makes makes up for the difference of the bad

56:12pass catchers, but the the rushing stuff is going to be out of control.

56:16>> Isn't this the late round quarterback formula that we just want to draft every single year?

56:21>> Yes.

56:22>> And it's more difficult, as I said, to open the show to find that. And this is the obvious one that's staring you right

56:27in the face. Uh he's going the 11th 12th round turn at this moment. I'm drafting a ton of Malik Willis at this point. And

56:36if it blows up, guess what? In reddraft, I can just drop him and pick someone out, stream that position based on

56:42matchups very easily. And if it works, >> then you're probably getting someone that's scoring much higher than even the quarterback 17. You're probably getting

56:49someone that's scoring in the top 15, top 14 quarterbacks out there. And look, like Bobby Slowick is not Matt Laflur who recently got the best out of Malik

56:58Willis after he was kind of I'll say like left for dead from the Tennessee Titans who drafted him, but Bobby Sloic

57:04did have an awesome protection plan for CJ Stra during his rookie season and created these wide openen downfield crossing routes. Now granted that was

57:11with Nico Collins and Tank Dell and Noah Brown who had a really good season there and he does not have experience that I

57:18know of uh you know working with a mobile quarterback like Malik Willis but it certainly sounds like he's building the playbook from the ground up and

57:26doesn't just want to copy and paste what they have done both in Miami and then previously in Houston uh and just

57:31planting that here on Malik Wilson.

57:33That's the case. We're going to get some design rushes and we just crave those when drafting quarterbacks. We were drafting Justin or no we you guys were

57:40drafting Justin Fields way earlier than this when the there was overwhelming data for multiple years that Justin Fields is not good and Malik Willis the

57:49small this small sample but there's some evidence that he actually has a chance of being good and he gets drafted way

57:54later than him and are they really going to bench Malik Willis who signed a two-year contract with guarantees going into the second year for uh what's his

58:03face from Texas? Um I'm not sure >> Quinners. Quinn, you were here. I don't think so. I don't think so.

58:09>> We'll move along. Jordan Love is up next. Former teammate of Malik Willis.

58:15We know he missed some time last year.

58:17Got hit in the gut. Uh but boy does he love to throw the football down the field and uh he has basically three wide

58:24receivers to throw to now.

58:26>> He does, which is refreshing. There's not going to be that crazy rotation. Uh >> we hope we mean they're going to be

58:32making up names for for that to work this year. It can't be like Savon Williams as like a legit wide receiver.

58:37I hope not at least. Um, Jordan Love is much better than this ranking in real life, but the Packers are always low in

58:45volume and Jordan Love doesn't run pretty much at all. He can run. They just like do not use him in that

58:51capacity. So, I rank him lower in fantasy than where I would in real life.

58:56He's not that dissimilar from, you know, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and those guys. Like, he he can easily have those seasons here. So,

59:04like this is where I think the hard part for for picking in fantasy is all these guys look extremely similar. So, like

59:12when do you actually want to spend your quarterback capital in reddraft? You can sell me on just waiting and waiting and

59:19waiting. In baseball, the quarterbacks are so valuable in half PPR that I I still want to invest into it, but I

59:24mean, we're talking about what quarterback 18 already. And like Jordan Love could I mean, he's not that far off from the quarterback nine every year.

59:32>> Yeah. I almost want to put like Malik Willis in his own tier because he's a different type of quarterback than all

59:37these next ones that we're about to discuss that are mostly >> pocket passers. Um but let's keep on that conversation because Jared Goff is

59:46up next. Uh you have him 107 overall.

59:49Again, these guys are all in order for you. Uh this is a big change for him. I mean, we know Dan Campbell took back

59:56play calling last year and in comes Drew Petting. And I actually think Drew Petting and Jared Golf are a nice combination in terms of like, hey, we

60:04need to be precise in our timing, the rhythm base of it all. Uh, and then we know Drew Paxton loves to build his

60:11passing attack around tight ends and Sam Leaporta definitely has receiving chops on top of that, plus Aman Ross St. Brown um, and Jameson Williams. And on top of

60:19that, hopefully just the offensive line plays better than it did last year, too.

60:22>> Yeah, they are at least trying adding some new guys up front. Um, new center should be helpful. I do like petting um

60:29over the last couple seasons when he's been involved with the offense. So yeah, Jared Goff's been pretty damn reliable from season to season here. He's

60:39finished between 68th and 132nd overall in the last four seasons. And I kind of have him ranked right between those two

60:45numbers in my overall rankings here.

60:48There's not a whole lot to say. There's not going to be like a new version of Jared Goff. His skill guys are

60:53fantastic. pick the offensive line is probably a little bit closer to average than being like one of the best in the

60:58NFL like it was three four years ago. Um so he's I think an upside quarterback too and then any given week the Lions

61:05are going to be projected for 32 points at home against a bad defense and we'll be ranking Jared Goff is like the

61:10quarterback eight in that week.

61:11>> Talk to me about Tyler Shuck who you have a couple rounds later than Jared Goff. So there's a bit of a tear break

61:17here small one. Um, heading into year two, uh, Kell Moore, play caller. Tyler Shuck came in about halfway through the year. You had Chris Ave. Uh, and now you

61:27add in Jordan Tyson at wide receiver as well.

61:29>> Yeah, everything's going up for for Tyler Shuck. Uh, who wasn't really fantasy relevant for a lot of his rookie season, but I appreciated what he was

61:36doing throwing the ball down the football field. He had he had some moments where he was running by a lot of

61:40guys, which uh, I think his >> 40 they caught people off guard with zone read stuff. They only did it in

61:46like one or two games and I don't I don't think it's going to be like a weekly part of the playbook, but in

61:52those games they really shocked opponents.

61:55>> I kept calling him Ryan Tanahill in my scouting reports and man did he really feel like Ryan Tanhill this last year.

62:01And by the way, Tanahill had some some seasons or some at least like some months where he was running by a lot of

62:06guys. Um, yeah, I think that Tyson's definitely an upgrade versus what they had at wide receiver 2 after Shahed was out of there and that's when Shuck

62:14started playing. Um, and then Joan Johnson's a serviceable receiving tight end. The offensive line is actually really good. I think left tackle Kelvin

62:21Banks is going to be a really good football player. They got a great right tackle as well. They got a lot of

62:26investment into the interior to varying degrees. Uh, but a brand new left guard on top of that. We like Kell Moore and

62:32we like Kell Moore because he runs a ton of plays. is like one of the fastest paced offenses out there and I can see

62:37them doubling down with that now that they have better wide receivers and Shuck going into year two. Like if you had to say who's going to be the fastest

62:45paced offense in the NFL this year, you had to make a guess. I would say >> always more.

62:49>> Yeah.

62:49>> Yeah. I would say it's >> the trend continues because Willis new play caller love same. Jared Goff new play caller. Tyler Shuck same. And here

62:57we go with B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B Baker Mayfield, new play call

63:00color here with Zack Robinson who was coming over from the Atlanta Falcons, staying in the same division. Um and this might be associated and attributed

63:08to the quarterback he was working with, but some interesting numbers here for Zack Robinson. He called play action at by far the lowest rate in the league at

63:16just under 10%. Uh, that could be a thing because they had to run pistol with Kurt Cousins and Michael Penn, but

63:24it's also tough to wrap your brain around not running play action when Bejan Robinson is in the back field behind you. Uh, and I also felt like as

63:34the season went on for Baker, those crazy moments that we got to open the season when he was redot and among the

63:39top scorers at quarterback, he had crazy sack avoidance and every time he threw into a tight window, his wide receiver caught it. And then like the final six

63:48weeks of the year, uh, he was being brought down every single time there was pressure and then every time he threw

63:54into traffic, it was being tipped or intercepted. And like that's this highwire act he tries to operate in at quarterback.

64:01>> I don't really have too much more to say than that. Like when he's >> really streaky and the downfield stuff

64:06is working, he's a low-end quarterback one. And then when it's not working, he's like in the superflex tier. So this is this is like averaging those two

64:15things out. losing Mike Evans hurts. I do think there's a chance IA is like one of those guys and can make up a lot of

64:23the difference. Um, and obviously they got a pretty good offensive line up front. So, there's a there's a lot of question marks. This thing just kind of

64:31it's the variance of the Baker Mayfield throwing the ball down the football field, you know, which is good luck projecting that.

64:37>> Who is Zack Robinson to you or do you want just want to like table that conversation as we go along this summer?

64:42>> Uh, he's not a lot. I haven't spent a whole lot of time thinking about Zach Robinson to be honest.

64:47>> Yeah. I mean just looking at his finishes last year for Baker when you go from week 12 and on quarterback 27 18 20

64:5414 20 12 and 17 and that was you know compared to a lot of top 10 quarterback stuff early on in the season.

65:02>> I'm going to add the finish weekly finishes on these little uh player web pages in the future. Good note.

65:08>> We've got some time before release we release it to all of you in the public.

65:11So, this is just a tease whenever we do one of these videos and you're going to see it a lot more when you're going to

65:16be able to use this site. Okay, speaking of play callers, uh I was amped for what Nick Kaye could bring to CJ Strad last

65:25year. Uh and then it got to about week nine and I couldn't tell you like one thing different that Nick Kayley brought

65:31to this Texans offense. So, are there any changes that can coax a higher scoring season than quarterback 22 here out of CJ Stout?

65:42>> I think he's got the talent for it to matter. I just think it's such a tight needle to to thread here because he's

65:49not going to be running that much. And I think if you're just looking at, you know, the David Montgomery addition and

65:56then the guys that they're bringing in on the offensive line and Nico Collins, there was that report that he's kind of

66:02frustrated by the offense. I wonder if he's kind of reading the tea leaves and be like, we're going to be a really

66:07runheavy offense again. And it's like, okay, quarterback that doesn't run a lot, run heavy, CJ Strad's got to be, you know, like Dak Prescott level to to

66:18matter at that point. And I think he can do that. I think we've we've seen it in glimpses, but I don't think he's earned

66:24our trust for that to be the case in like a baseline ranking. So, um, and then on top of that, I would put him

66:29into the circling back to our conversation earlier, his defense is so good that it actually does hurt his fantasy outlook.

66:37>> You don't have you don't have to force it. Like >> on a third and four, they're going to run the ball and then they'll punt it

66:42worst case. And another team with a bad defense, they're throwing the football on those situations. So, I think like the Texans, the Seahawks, like

66:50>> when you get to that tier of defense, your fantasy uh projections on offense do come down. And that's the only time

66:56where I think that your defensive stats actually matter.

66:58>> A nine-point lead if you're the Houston Texans is a lot different than if you have a nine-point lead as, you know, a

67:04Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

67:05>> Yeah.

67:06>> Um I mean, even his rookie season, CJ Stradd was the quarterback 18 in total points, you know. So, it's just this

67:12archetype of a quarterback. Like you said, it's a tough needle to thread in terms of fantasy production. Now, just overall, what can make CJ Strad get

67:21closer to that rookie season with Bobby Slowick? It's being ahead of the sticks on offense. And if they have successful running game that doesn't lead to third

67:33and eight plus constantly, then that's just an easier avenue to operate in at the quarterback position. And it just felt like over the last two years,

67:41they've been stuck in that department.

67:42And their answer was to, you know, trade for Dave Montgomery and then continue to draft and kind of shuffle these pieces

67:48around on their offensive line. And while maybe not one of the offensive lineman stands out as like a world beater, uh we always know that if the

67:58five gel, then that can be enough if they all stay healthy. And if that's the case, then yeah, I mean, getting in

68:04third and three and second and four situations would just be so massive for CJ Strive to, I think, bounce back in a

68:11lot of areas. I have my doubts on the offensive line still that they it's new bodies every year and you look at them

68:17you're like are they actually any good because at some point they actually the new bodies have to be good and then also

68:21is David Montgomery going to be like ripping off like eight yard carries? Uh I'm not sure. I have my doubts here.

68:28>> Well, one spot after in your rankings is Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers as your quarterback 23. low-key a new play

68:37caller here with ID taking over for Canales. Uh I keep saying I think that means some anticipated changes, but I'm

68:48kind of the only one bringing that up.

68:49>> I think they're going to be more pass heavy just kind of looking at the changes on the offensive line like they

68:54got like smaller and more athletic up front. Uh Monroe Freeling I think is going to be excellent on like screen game and that he's a very athletic left

69:03tackle that's going to be coming in there. And obviously when T-Mac goes crazy uh as a rookie and they keep doubling down, I I think they're just

69:11going to pass the ball a little bit more here with Bryce Young. And I think that he actually does run. So his fantasy

69:19appeal, you can actually sell me on this. So I I don't think there's pretty much any difference between I would say

69:26from Shuck down to to Bryce Young, I think it's basically the same. I mean, I think that you could sell me that Bryce

69:32Young should actually be towards the top of that, even if I don't like fully trust him all the time. I I do think he

69:38played better football and I do think that T-Mac makes a huge difference here um going into year two.

69:46>> Yeah. And Jaylen Coker being out there hopefully at all times and Jaylen Coker wasn't on the field for the start of

69:51last season is a big change.

69:53Uh I have some optimism more so than any other Tennessee wide receiver for Chris Brazzle and what he can bring in terms

69:59of like stretching defenses for this team. They really haven't had like they have towering presences that can you know really aggravate defenses at

70:09multiple areas of the field but no one of Chris Brazzle's skill set here. Um, yeah, I think they're going to throw the

70:15football down the field more. Um, rather than, hey, it's in the fourth quarter, it's, you know, fourth and 10 against the Los Angeles Rams. You have to

70:23convert this pass, Bryce Young, and oh yeah, then there's a 32 yard touchdown pass. Like, willingly calling those plays. There was a in SAS versus film,

70:32we had this conversation back in like early November that, you know, they were 31st in attempts of passes 15 plus yards

70:40down the field, 20 plus yards down the field. And then immediately after that show, they started throwing the football down the field. And if you always look

70:47at those situations, the big- time throw rate, the completion percentage, the touchdowns are always very, very high for for Bryce Young. So, I think like

70:56that's an area of the field versus just like clogging everything. the stick routes that he got in his rookie year that it's just a nightmare to uh try to

71:03operate in like condensed space.

71:05>> And I do think my favorite part of Bryce is when he's playing closer to like Joe Burrow, like point guard, throw it out

71:10to the sideline immediately and even downfield to the sideline immediately.

71:14Like that's the best version of Bryce Young. And I think what we're talking about here is like that's the style offense we're going to rather than like

71:20under center play action, him having to turn his body and then try to see over his offensive line. I feel like I didn't

71:25like that much with Bryce. Um, but if they're going more towards where what he was doing at Alabama, which does feel

71:30like that that's where we're going, I think that'll be good news for him.

71:32>> I do think there are some positives under center play action. They get some explosives out of there, too. But I just

71:38think Canales like didn't totally get it with his play calling. Like the it never felt good to open each of the last two

71:44seasons and they kind of figured it out in the second half of the year. So, uh, you know, being a head coach and a play

71:50caller is is kind of a difficult a lot.

71:52It's a lot. It's a lot. Uh, >> okay. Cam Ward stands here next up. Year two. We're kind of fitting that it's

71:59talking about Bryce Young right before because hopefully we can just throw out his rookie season because it was surrounded by misery from a play caller

72:08and a head coach being fired halfway through the year to offensive lineman not showing up and wide receivers not catching the football. Hopefully a lot

72:16of that changes here with Brian Dball now calling plays and many more added weapons around him.

72:21>> Yeah, Dal wants to run his quarterback.

72:23I Cam Ward is he has enough athletic tools to run a little bit, but he's never ran before. So, that'd be a little

72:28bit interesting to see what they're going to do there. I'm guessing he's just not going to run that much. Uh he

72:32was by far the worst quarterback against the Blitz, negative uh.40 EPA per drop back there. Um the completion percentage on downfield passes was nowhere near

72:43good enough. He was kind of inaccurate there, but also his wide receivers were just beyond brutal down the football field. And that's where Carnell Tate's

72:51going to come in. And then Calvin Ridley like even we're not expecting Calvin to be Calvin like he's probably going to

72:56play more snaps which is means Elaumor is like not going to be on the good on the football field which is a good thing

73:01for Cam Ward. So offensive line makes me really nervous. Dball's fine enough for fantasy um but he's not like a differencemaking offensive coordinator

73:11either. Cam Ward showed a lot of flashes with his arm. Like how many of those like sideline throws did he have last

73:16year? there's like sensational stuff, but the downto-own consistency was nowhere near good enough. And if you look at the negative reports, uh the

73:24negative side of the scouting reports, it was always that he has this kind of gunslinger mentality that you have to reign in in the NFL for it to work. And

73:32like >> we didn't see that as a rookie. So, at some point, we have to get the consistency going for Cam Ward. But I'm

73:38expecting a jump here.

73:39>> I'm actually quite excited about Cam Ward. I mean, he had the seventh highest average time to throw last year at just

73:45under 3 seconds. Um, a lot of that was kind of waiting for his tunes to get open. Uh, and trying to avoid some quick

73:53pressures up front, too. Um, Wondell Robinson, not a total complete player, but he can win quick, right? And knows his Brian Dball offense. And then now

74:03you have Colonel Tate who can win outside, he can win down the field. He is a technician. He is so trustworthy.

74:09Um, and then going back to your stuff with the rushing, I remember you and I talking about Ward coming out of Miami

74:15that if Dal can make Kim Ward more of a decisive scrambler, then I think something's there, you know?

74:21>> Yes.

74:22>> When getting north and south and like planting his foot, there was always some hidden rushing upside there with K word,

74:28he just never really liked to do it or wanted to pull that lever. So, it it's something that if it can be unlocked,

74:35uh, can be a real asset for us here in fantasy.

74:37>> Yeah. Same thing with Strad. Like Strad, whenever he takes off, you're like, "Oh, like he's a good enough athlete to go do

74:42that and he just rarely does." Um, I put Cam Ward in the same bucket there.

74:46>> Let's talk about Sam Darnold. Super Bowl winner, Sam Darnold. Uh, some people might say, "Dang, he was good last year." Uh, and then he's ranked here as

74:57the quarterback 25. How is that possible? Well, despite having the wide receiver two score last season and just about everything going perfectly from a

75:06Sam Darnold standpoint, he finished about this spot last year in scoring as well. So, I I I kind of think it's just

75:13a cap situation both from a defensive perspective and in just how they want this offense to operate perspective.

75:20>> I should put him ahead of Cam Ward at least just looking at this just, you know, optics wise. Uh but like you said,

75:26it's the defense was so elite that he did not have to pass the ball at all.

75:30Like there were so many second halfs where he was just like not throwing the ball uh that much.

75:36He gets really hot and he's got Jackson Smith and Jigba and then hopefully Shahed they get like the best of him um

75:43going into like a legit full season with Sam Darnold. But losing Clint Kubak has to matter to some degree here. um the

75:51defense is probably not going to be quite as good as it was this past season, but they still look really, really good on paper. So, he doesn't run

75:58around that much to make up the difference. So, he just has to get red-hot in a game or two to have a spike

76:04week. And as you can see on the chart there, >> he has about two every 10 games and then the rest of the games are pretty

76:10mediocre. So, >> yeah, he's a better real life quarterback than a fantasy quarterback.

76:14>> Moving on. Uh, and I believe the last name in this tier, it is Daniel Jones.

76:21And I should have mentioned Daniel Jones's name at the start of this because he was being selected as quarterback 29. And we know that in

76:30games that he played in finished much, much much higher than that in scoring.

76:36Uh, unfortunately, he's now being ranked and drafted much closer to that quarterback 29 standpoint. So, are we just dumb? Are we blind? or are we just

76:46ahead and thinking that he can't get back to the miraculous play that he had last year? It just depends on the split

76:53that you're looking at because I mean the first what eight games of the season before he actually had his his setback

76:59there um or his first injury he was the quarterback six and then the next set of games when he was dealing with that

77:07injury you can see he kind of falls off into quarterback two land and the offense did not feel as great and I

77:13think a large part of that is because Daniel Jones is like a legit athlete when he's not being can't play like an

77:18elite athlete then the rest of the warts kind of creep up more and that's what makes you nervous when it's not just an

77:24Achilles tear, it's an Achilles tear uh in week 14 and it's to your back foot which is how you generate power throwing

77:33the football down the football field.

77:35You also lost Michael Pitman and didn't really replace him. You got a new right tackle who they like in-house, but it's

77:42not um Braden Smith who's been old reliable over there. So, I really like Shane Stiken. The offensive line is still really good. I I like DS. I like

77:49Warren. I I like uh Alec Pierce.

77:53The injury is is not good. So, he's at the end of this tier >> and they kind of tied themselves to him

77:58once they traded all those picks for Sauce Gardner. Okay, let's go rapid fire through this final tier because we'll talk about these offenses as we go

78:06through this entire off seasonason.

78:08>> I hope not.

78:09>> Gino Smith. I mean, a lot of Jets being drafted early, Hayden. So, we're going to talk about Gino Smith and his return

78:15to the Jets. Um, this is again a tight needle to thread when we talk about fantasy scoring because he just has to

78:21throw a bunch of touchdowns in order to be fancy relevant for us.

78:24>> He was less accurate than he usually was. He was making way worse decisions than he typically was. I mean, he was

78:30just throwing the ball over the football in the over the middle of the field right to the linebackers way too much.

78:35Um, and then it's your guy Frank Reich calling plays over there. Um, I will say this, >> not my guy.

78:41>> I will say this, >> it's not my guy.

78:44Um, the Jets offensive line is good >> and the skill group has potential. I'm not going to call it good yet because

78:50Breeze Hall has been too inconsistent.

78:51Garrett Wilson is good and then the rookies I like the appeal of but I don't I'm not sold that they're like elite

78:58players even though they're both first round picks. Um, so the good news about Gino Smith is like could you name the

79:04quarterback too? Like he's not going to get benched for a while. So in baseball you're going to get lots of starts out

79:10of him. They're projected for almost no points this season, obviously. Um, and he played really bad football last year versus the last couple seasons. So, I

79:19don't know what to think about this.

79:21>> Yeah, it's Bailey Zappy or Brady Cook or fourthrounder Cade Clubick.

79:26>> I forgot about Oh, man.

79:28>> I mean, I thought they were going to make a move for for Andy Dalton or Carson Wentz or something.

79:34I mean, we I cannot believe you brought up Russell Wilson's name in this episode. Cannot believe it. Okay, >> they asked Gino Smith, "Who do you

79:43want?" He said, "I like Russ." That's what he said.

79:46>> Speaking of, uh, Aaron Rogers, soon to be Russell Wilson, uh, is up next. I mean, he sucked last year, but he's back

79:54in our lives.

79:55>> I like the Steelers roster. I really do like the ro the offensive line has a chance to really gel whether it's Brick

80:02Jones or Maxioner at one of the spots their other tackle sensational their center is one of the best centers and he's a young player as well Michael

80:10Pitman I mean what a huge upgrade for wide receiver too Michael Pitman over Calvin Austin whoever else they were throwing out there um and they still got

80:19two nice tight ends and DK Metaf like you look around like the if he can play the guitar at all they've got Not a

80:27chance. I don't think he can. You know, I don't He can't move. He didn't want to take hits. So, >> I do think Michael Pitman's like perfect

80:34for Aaron Rogers, though. Like all those little RPO passes and stuff, you're going to get that out of him. Um Rico

80:40Dallas, >> they basically tried to make DK Metaf Michael Pitman last year. He >> he they tried. They really tried and and

80:46that to be fair, they did have that one slant for an 80 yard touchdown, which was pretty sick >> against the Vikings. Is that correct?

80:52Yeah, I remember cuz I was going into one of our wide receiver rankings episodes like I can never get DK Mechov's ranking correct and I had him

80:58really low that week and then like right when I turned on the TV there he is for an 80 yarder.

81:02>> Okay, let's talk about the Raiders quarterbacks. You do have Fernando Mendoza ranked ahead of Kirk Cousins. Um I'm assuming that's because you believe

81:11that Fernando Mendoza obviously has more ability. I I do wonder like I think Fernando Mendoza is gonna start more games this year, but I don't think it's

81:21a 0% chance that Fernando Mendoza only starts like five games as well.

81:27>> I I think Kirk is probably going to play the first I would say five to 14 games of the season. I I think that they I

81:37think they want Kurt Cousins to be out there for as long as he's capable. You know, >> they have all said this. Tom Brady said,

81:44"Hey, sitting early helped me." And then if the team owner is saying this, then Spyc is saying it. Clint Kubak is saying

81:51it, who just worked with Sam Darnold, for example. And so this is like imprinted in the walls of the Las Vegas

81:59facility at this moment of, >> hey, Kurt Cousin's going to start a whole bunch of games until he basically can't anymore. It seems like

82:06>> and the first report I saw from OTAAS's, the ESPN reporter who covers the Raiders said Mendoza is not even on the first

82:14practice field. They established a second practice field where Mendoza is going hanging out with it's AOC behind Kurt Cousins. And so we haven't even got

82:23him onto the first practice. It's hard to learn from Kurt Cousins when you're not even on the same practice field as

82:28Kurt Cousins. It's a weird strategy.

82:30>> Again, we're going to talk about these offenses a lot throughout the summer.

82:33Uh, Jacobe Brassette right now is next up for you as quarterback 30. Uh, Jacobe Brassette, speaking of bad defenses, uh, he had, I think, 20 something touchdowns

82:45or 19 touchdowns when trailing. He also had 10 passing touchdowns when leading.

82:50Uh, he just rips the rock. But right now, he's holding out.

82:54>> He should hold out, to be honest.

82:56looking at his contract, he's probably5 to10 million under uh sold uh because they told him he's going to be the starter. Um I don't think he's going to

83:05be the starter the entire season, >> but it it's one of those that unless the Cardinals are sneaky competitive, uh Jacob Brassette's not going to start

83:14every game. Like they they will want to see uh you know, their young draft pick, young >> Have you seen Have you seen their

83:21schedule early on?

83:22>> I'm not into it. the schedule early on.

83:24It's like >> I mean it's just like you played the Super Bowl winner five straight seasons.

83:29It's it's not good.

83:30>> Okay, moving on. Let's talk about Deshun Watson. Somehow someway he's still in our lives and somehow someway he's going to be the starting quarterback if you

83:40read every single report out there uh from Browns and national writers. So, does Deshun Watson have anything left at this point to,

83:51you know, be close to a top 20 score?

83:54Because I I would argue like 21 through 31 is just going to change any given week. But there's also a chance that

84:00he's just so bad that he is stuck in this 26 through 32 every single week of the season.

84:06>> Most likely scenario is he's a bottom five starting quarterback and then eventually gets benched for Shadore. I I think that there's some scenario that he

84:17goes somewhere between where he was an MVP candidate versus where he's been previously. Did want to just mention like a lot of the guys ahead of him

84:24right now. Jacob Brassette, Gino Smith, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, uh Baker Mayfield, like a lot of these guys have been fully written off and then like

84:32they somehow get back. Obviously, Deshawn's pathway of doing that is a lot lower odds, but it does happen on occasion. Uh, we like Casey Conpsion. We

84:42like Fannon. Like we're okay with Jerry Judy for what he is. I guess the offensive line might be one of the worst

84:48in the league. And Deshun Watson's sensitivity to pressure is really brut really brutal. And then Todd >> Todd's a good coach.

84:55>> He is, but for fantasy purposes, it's going to be really slow paced, really runheavy. Good news is Quinn Judkins looks really healthy right now. Like

85:03that was really promising. He's going to be very important for them. So, I think I would take the higher on how many

85:09games Deshaawn Watson's going to start this year versus the consensus out there. I I think that Monin and the the whole staff doesn't really believe in

85:17Shador Sanders and they they're paying Deshun Watson and they know Deshun's more talented than Shidor in general that they're going to like give him as

85:24many chances as as they possibly can which is why they keep calling Mary Kitt to release the report that he's going to

85:30start. Like every single week she reports that he's going to be the starter. Let's close with the Falcons quarterbacks and Tua Tongaviloa and

85:36Michael Penn. I think it's very easy to project and try to predict what Tua looks like in this offense because we

85:43just saw Dylan Gabriel, a lesser version, play in a Kevin Sansancy offense. A little bit less so here with Michael Pennock since, you know, there's

85:51some under center stuff and definitely attacking over the middle field and all of that. But, uh, boy oh boy does this

85:57quarterback room freaking suck.

85:59>> It's not going to be fun. Um, it's Drake London, Bejon Pitts, and then nothing else beyond that. But Pitts was really

86:05good last year. Yeah, know Pitts was really good. And then Drake London's really good when he when he's out there as well. So, I do think they can do this

86:11kind of like RPO uh style offense with Tua if they wanted to. And then it's with PennX just a race to get back

86:18there. His ACL tear was in week 11. This is is it his third or fourth ACL tear? I forget what it's it's either one of

86:26those. It's never good. Um, so I'm not sure how quick he's going to be back out there. I think they would want to see

86:32Michael Pennix for most of the season.

86:34Um, but if Tua is like keeping them competitive after starting the season because Pennix can't get back there in time. I could see Tua playing for a

86:41large chunk of this. So in baseball it's hard because you just don't know the exact split. I think early on it's

86:46probably going to be 20 would be my guess.

86:48>> Even if Penn is already out there practicing, which was kind of surprising to me. All right, that does it. Again,

86:54if we didn't spend enough time on your team, on your quarterback, on the one you wanted to hear, we've got months for

86:58it. That's why you need to lock into the channel, hit subscribe, all this free content. I think tomorrow, not tomorrow, next week, we start uh three shows a

87:07week and maybe even more than that. So, we've got some cool things in store for you over the next few weeks and

87:12especially over these next few months.

87:14Our goal is to hit 200,000 subscribers.

87:17You can hit subscribe. It's totally free. It would be massive for us. So, shout out to you. Shout out to Mosho and

87:23we behind the scenes and shout out to Aston Villa Football Club for being the best freaking club in the world. Talk to

87:32you guys >> in a sub in a subset of a world. It's like a >> no just the best.

87:38>> You know, best can have many meetings and in my heart they're the best. So >> that's awesome.

87:42>> Up the bill. Talk to you guys soon.

More episodes from Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

6

The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong artwork

The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong

Jul 29, 2026

The fantasy community is Underestimating Rome Odunze 😤🐻 artwork

The fantasy community is Underestimating Rome Odunze 😤🐻

Jul 29, 2026

5 Players with Unlimited Ceilings Thanks To Playcalling artwork

5 Players with Unlimited Ceilings Thanks To Playcalling

Jul 28, 2026

Get out of the spreadsheets and draft Ricky Pearsall 😤 artwork

Get out of the spreadsheets and draft Ricky Pearsall 😤

Jul 28, 2026

These 8 Wide Receivers Will Decide Your Fantasy Season artwork

These 8 Wide Receivers Will Decide Your Fantasy Season

Jul 27, 2026

Malik Nabers might be the most mispriced player in fantasy football 😳 artwork

Malik Nabers might be the most mispriced player in fantasy football 😳

Jul 24, 2026