The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 29, 2026
Published
Wed, July 29, 2026
0
Player insights
0
Players mentioned
Player analysis
Player insights
No player insights have been extracted for this episode yet.
Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00There is no bigger consensus in fantasy football drafts than the top 12 overall picks, the first round. So, as soon as
0:07baseball drafts open in May, the same names make up the first round all summer long for multiple months. But we all
0:13know that the season once it's over does not end that way. So, today, Hayden and I are going to do our best to break
0:19group think and both list how we rank the top 12 to 15 overall picks in this year's fantasy drafts. I think the
0:27interesting part about round one is there's like the top six players who have established themselves as true separators and then the back half and
0:35then even in the second round to me this year it's about finding the ceiling case because if I don't have Jir Gibbs this
0:42year if I don't have Puka Nakua I feel very nervous about my chances of winning. I can't afford to take the RB8
0:49finisher uh somewhere in that turn. I'm hoping for the RB3 that year because I think it's going to be pretty difficult
0:55to match some of the ceiling cases that we have in the first half of round one.
0:59So, that's how I'm breaking ties uh at the back half of round one.
1:02>> Love all of that. Uh how we're going to do this is just go back and forth one to 15. We're going to talk about this
1:09players at the turn because that's when a major factor is uh in terms of how you're going to build your lineups this
1:16year. We're going to talk about half PPR rankings, but maybe throw in a bit of strategy if PPR uh in our rankings, how
1:22we draft these players is very divergent from that. All right, you're going to start with each one of these and then
1:27I'll go back and forth. Who is your number one player in drafts this year?
1:30>> It's got to be Jir Gibbs. He's holding out for a contract. Hopefully that gets settled shortly. But the upset here is
1:36so obvious. Jir Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight games that David Montgomery has missed or played under 25% of the snaps. He's going to
1:47set careerh highs in volume. The Detroit offensive line has gotten a little bit better going into this season. They spent some real capital across the the
1:55entire offensive line. Uh he was fourth last year in fantasy points over replacement per game. That was while he was splitting time with David
2:01Montgomery. Pacheco's in there. I do not think Pacheco and David Montgomery are nearly the same level player. This is all going towards Jir Gibbs. And the
2:09other last note I had that defense is going to be pretty bad this year in Detroit. So we're going to see a lot of
2:15shootouts, a lot of dome games. This entire division's loaded. So we're going to see a lot of like 28 to 30 games in
2:21Detroit. Jir G is going to get a lot of those points.
2:23>> Yeah. The interesting part about the defense maybe still being bad is that the Lions heading into the season are still favored in 14 games this year. I
2:30think that's second across the league.
2:32Uh Jir Gibbs is also my number one player. He's actually going second on Yahoo at this very moment if you look at
2:37drafts over the last handful of days. I mean the goal of drafting a running back this early on is that he eclipses the 20
2:44or 21 points per game for the entire season. Uh in the 25 career games with Gibbs has played 60% or more of the team
2:52snaps, he's averaged 20 points per contest. And as you said, I wrote it down the same way. Isaiah Pacheco is no
2:58Dave Montgomery. So, I'm expecting Jir Gibbs to hit that 70%, you know, snap share on a weekly basis. He played 67%
3:06last year. Uh, and then a big note for me with how the team kind of crumbled last year. Obviously, they fired their
3:13play caller and offensive line injuries hit in a major way. Uh there are some new faces and some same ones in new
3:20places along that offensive line where you have Pane Su at left tackle, Blake Miller in round one at right tackle, Tate Ratlage is in in year two at guard,
3:28and then you have Kade Maze at center right now. So, not only does he give you like week- toeek scoring, Hayden, he's
3:34also one of the true game breakers with his speed both in the rushing and receiving department. They can give you those masses spike weeks and if those
3:41pop up in the fantasy playoffs then hey you're headed to the championship.
3:44>> Other note Drew Petting is a new offensive coordinator. I was looking at some yards before contact numbers in the run department. Number one is like the
3:51Mike McDaniel offense over the last couple years. Part of that's because Devon Chin really high up there over the last couple years.
3:57>> Drew Petting and the Arizona Cardinals which you would not think that's not an offensive line stat in Arizona over the
4:02last couple years. It's definitely not a running back stat either. To me that's a schemeoriented stat a credit to Drew Petting. this is the best weaponry he's
4:09had uh since being in the play calling mix.
4:12>> Yeah, I will add and we just did a show with Ryan Paganetti uh on you know play callers and how they're generating in
4:18their rushing attacks 10 plus yard runs over and over and over again. Uh Drew Petting ranks fourth on that list whereas you know Ben Johnson was top
4:26two. Um Clayton Adams who is now with the Dallas Cowboys was a part of that Drew Petting staff in Arizona and now
4:32he's not. So maybe some of those numbers are skewed because Clayton Adams is one of the best uh run let's say organizers
4:38and architects across the league. All right, so we have the same 1-1. Hayden, I have a feeling that our number two
4:45player is going to be the same here as well.
4:47>> Yeah, in half PPR, I will go be Robinson. I think in full PPR, this is where the Puka Jamar Chase conversation,
4:52I think, really kind of picks into gear just because I feel less certain about the Falcons offense versus the Lions offense. And that's how he broke the tie
4:59between Bejon and Jir Gibbs. That said, the market projections for Bejon and Gibbs are almost the exact same thing.
5:07We also have Tyler Algier uh without Bejian Robinson. We don't know the exact splits because Algier's been healthy for a lot of that. Brian Robinson comes in.
5:15I think he can do a pretty decent Tyler Algier impression, but Bejian was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year. Uh that was
5:22when Algier handled 10 inside the 5yard line carries to Bejon's 11. So that was like a 50-50 split. Could we just like
5:28not make that 50-50 split uh moving forward? that would be helpful. He's going to catch the ball. There's really not many pass game threats in Atlanta
5:35after Kyle Pittz and Drake London. I don't think the defense is going to be nearly as good. So, he's going to catch
5:39a bunch of passes and this hopefully could be the year where Kevin fans says, "Let's give like Bean Robinson like all
5:46the goal line work." And that's how he closes the gap between these huge Jamar Chase or uh these huge Demir Gibbs uh
5:52splits that we have with T Montgomery.
5:53>> Yeah. In the fantasy playoffs last year, Bejian ran for 175, 168, and 229 total yards. Obviously, Bejian Robinson is my
6:02number two player as well for fantasy football this year. He's averaged 20 points per game when he's reached 15 touches. That's not a lot of touches to
6:09average, you know, 20 plus fancy points per contest. And yet, he owned 79% of the snaps last year. So, I'm ranking him
6:16second. But with that in mind, Hayden, I I still do think there is a pathway for him to obviously finish as the number
6:22one overall player in fantasy football this year. And then I sat back and asked myself, okay, how can that happen? What
6:28has to change for Bejon to get there?
6:30Um, it really comes down to red zone scoring. Okay, he's ranked 13th, sixth, and 23rd in red zone running back scoring over the last three years
6:39according to Rich Rebar. And over the his first three years in the league, he's only had Hayden 23 carries from inside of the five yard line. Derrick
6:48Henry had 24 last season on his own.
6:51Even Devin Singleary had more carries inside the 5yard line than Bejian Robinson did last year. Now, a lot of you can say, "Well, that's because he
7:00scores long touchdowns." Yes, that is true. But what could make him the number one overall player is if he scores the
7:06long touchdowns. And also when this team gets inside the 5yd line, he also scores those touchdowns. And I think that we
7:13might get closer to that this season.
7:15>> Yeah, I really hope so. Yeah, 10 to 11 last year with Algier. Hopefully that's not the case this season.
7:19>> I did want to end this conversation by bringing up why we have Jir Gibbs over Bjun Robinson. I'll speak for myself. Um
7:27it comes down to just the implied points and where these teams are projected heading into the year. I mentioned that the Lions are favored in 14 games this
7:36season and the Falcons are only favored in two and you know you score more points than your opponent in games that
7:42you win and the Lions are probably going to score more points than the Falcons this year and I think the trickle down
7:47to Jir Gibbs just means he's going to score more points than Bejian Robinson.
7:51>> And to that point right now the quarterback one uh in Atlanta like today is a complete nobody because two is
7:57injured and so is Michael Penn. like you have like those like kind of worst case scenario outcomes that exist with Bejon
8:02enough so where I think these next two wide receivers I I do think by the end of this this uh training camp period. I
8:08might kind of go back and forth and maybe have Bejon as like low as four, but I can't go any lower than that.
8:12Obviously, >> I was hoping to start this video off with a bang. Uh I am a bit nervous that our top four are going to be the same.
8:18So to you the viewers, do not click away. I guarantee you once we get to our fifth players, things really diverge
8:23from there. We go in different places.
8:25So uh stick around because this video gets really interesting there. But to bring that up, who's your number three player in fantasy football drafts this
8:31year?
8:31>> Really tough call. I'm going with Jamar Chase right here. Uh in games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three
8:37seasons. He's averaging 21 and a half PPR points per game. Wide receiver one on wide receiver one overall expected points. Joe Burrow's healthy. Jamar
8:47Chase is healthy. I would say the offensive line since the beginning of the Joe Burrow Jamar Chase years to where it is now is in a much better
8:54spot. The defense is probably a little bit better now than it was the last couple seasons. I view that all as a
8:58wash. I view the Bengals as a Super Bowl contending team this year. And everything obviously flows through Jamar Chase. So, he feels like one of the
9:05highest floor players, period. And then in full PPR, if you wanted to take him over Bejian Robinson, I would not bat an
9:10eye for a second.
9:11>> Jamar Chase is also my third overall player in four of his five seasons. He's ranked top five in points per game.
9:17Pretty damn good. Uh he is both one of the most heavily targeted players in the end zone and then also scoring targets
9:25from long range. It's kind of what I just talked about with Bjun Robinson.
9:29This is what we want from a wide receiver and also not just getting the opportunity to score touchdowns. It's also he's an outside to inside to
9:36outside player in this offense. So, he is a game-breaker. We have seen him score 30 40 points. Just anecdotally, he probably has more of those 30 plus point
9:45scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in fantasy football over the last few seasons. Uh and that is why I have him as the wide receiver one and
9:52third overall this season.
9:54>> Yeah. last four games 23 points, 20 points, 25 points, 24 points. You know, it's just a clinic.
9:59>> Pretty good. I I have another bingle I'm going to talk about spoiler in the top 15. So, I have a lot more of
10:06>> uh how the Bengals offense was unsuccessful early in the season with Jake Browning and got much better with Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow and obviously
10:13Jamar Chase felt that too. All right, your number four player is who?
10:16>> Puka and he can easily easily finish as the most valuable player in fantasy this year. I think this is a a big four that
10:22I feel comfortable with. uh 23.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the wide receiver two overall last season.
10:31Over the past two seasons, only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood over his entire career. Neu has the most receiving yards per game in NFL history.
10:39That's the entire league history at 95 yards per game. There's still no wide receiver three. They're going to do the 13 personnel stuff. He'll be the only
10:48wide receiver on the field. His running mate is 33 years old and Devonte Adams.
10:52The Rams are still projected for the most points this year. Outside the red zone, Nikua caught eight receptions per game on a 33% target share. That's
11:00outside the red zone. Eight per game.
11:02That's what we're talking about here.
11:03And inside the red zone, at any point if we flip this thing around, we're talking about a season that is unmatched in
11:09fantasy. I don't think that's the most likely scenario because Adams is very good at the goal line. But yes, if if
11:14that switches, we're talking about an unmatched potential here.
11:17>> Puka is also my number four player. Uh, I do love how you worded that of outside the red zone because I think not my one
11:24frustration with Pukun but like the one Infinity Stone that he hasn't had previously is being dominant inside the red zone. I mean just overall it was
11:33scoring touchdowns prior to this past season. I mean his first two years in the league he combined for 10 touchdowns and then obviously this past year he hit
11:3911 which is a big deal. We need that to happen again and I think it will. But as you said, when they get inside the 20
11:45yard line and especially the 10 and the five, Devonte Adams just has the gravity no matter where he goes, what team he's
11:53on to dominate those opportunities. When Devonte Adams was on the field last year, according to Reeves, he outtargeted Pukuna 31-10 in the red zone
12:02and 28-4 in the end zone. But as you said, like when Devonte missed games, guess who got those opportunities? Pukuna. And what if
12:11Dvonte has started to decline a little bit? Maybe they have spent the offseason hoping that Puga can be their go-to player inside the red zone and
12:19especially in the end zone. And if that is the case, as you said, we have like from one goal line to the other goal
12:25line, a full complete package here with Pukaku to be like the player that you need in fantasy football this year.
12:31>> There's no reason why they don't target him in in the red area. Like he comes down with crazy sideline catches and is
12:35a massive guy. Like the second they switch that, like it would clearly work.
12:39So, it's just really just, you know, even factoring that that's not going to happen. It's it's him and Jamar Chase by
12:45themselves right now looking at it, right? His projection like in the betting markets 1,400 receiving yards.
12:511,400 receiving yards. That's like the That's like the baseline case for him.
12:55That's crazy.
12:56>> Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, wide receiver one, wide receiver five, and wide receiver nine in points per game since entering the league. Uh, and that was
13:03what as a day three draft pick. That rarely happens, you know, rarely happens. Uh, and I do want to say I feel
13:10a lot better about Matthew Stafford heading into this season than I did this time last year, Hayden, when you know the immortal chamber showed up on day
13:17one. [laughter] >> It's still there, by the way. It's still there. It's a road show now. Yeah. Now it's just purely for marketing purposes.
13:23Uh, also weird thing, uh, Bejon, Jir Gibbs, and Pukanua. It's like contract seasons for all these guys. I know they're going to get paid maybe before
13:32the before training camp, but like we got a lot writing to the prime of all these guys careers. Feels very good to
13:38have a top four pick this season.
13:39>> All right, this is one of our biggest shows of the summer. So, if you've made it this far and you haven't hit that
13:43subscribe button, do it right now. Uh, it's totally free to you. Our whole goal for the next month plus is to help you
13:49win your fantasy football leagues this year. Win your drafts this year. Uh, and hit that thumbs up button while you're there so you know YouTube knows that you
13:57watched this episode. Hayden, I am sick of agreeing. I don't want to agree the rest of this episode. So, who is your
14:04number five player?
14:04>> I'm going Christian McCaffrey. um coming off 450 touches. You know how this can go sideways here. It's rare to get that
14:11many touches. When running backs get that many touches, they are injured often the next season. That said, he easily finishes the RB1 overall in
14:19expected points at 23 per game. RB1 overall in actual fantasy points as well. If he stays healthy, he's right in the mix with Bejian Robinson and Jamir
14:28Gibbs. And I'm trying to find upside weeks. even if you get him for 13 14 weeks, like scrape scrape by the last
14:34couple weeks here. Uh he just gives you such a clear advantage when he's out there. Uh Kyle Shanahan wants to scale
14:40his uh his workload back a little bit.
14:43They always say that. I think they're going to do it at times this year, but we're dropping receivers like flies with
14:49Ricky Pieraw. George KD coming off of an injury and running backs with with broken ribs and whatnot. It's like >> we're going to come to the season again.
14:56He's going to be the only guy that's healthy. Um, so I get it. He can get injured and this could look stupid and
15:01at the same time like last year you can draft him and you can win your fantasy league.
15:05>> Chris McAffrey is my number six overall player. Uh, hey I mean it was my home run swing on this episode last year
15:10where I called out CMC as my fourth overall player and he finished as the running back one with 22 points per
15:16game. Uh, I'm not doing that this year, but it's not because I don't want to or don't believe in him. I I think I just
15:23kind of believe in the other players that we talked about here at the front.
15:26I mean, no player owns more of their team touches than CMC did last year.
15:3047%. Like 47% of the time he touched the football. Now, as you said, it's kind of twofold, right? Would CMC season have
15:38been even better if everyone was healthier, right? Better team, more points scored, better blocking. I think there is a case for that. Or did he
15:49actually benefit from everyone being hurt? you know, he was force-fed the ball despite lacking juice because the underlying metrics were really poor. I
15:58mean, he was 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards, 32nd on runs that got stuffed at the line of scrimmage
16:05that failed to gain yards, 36th in yards after contact per rush. And as you said, like the last three backs that hit 450
16:13touches from Aryen Foster to Marco Murray to the season prior, Saquon Barkley, uh, their production and their fantasy appeal dropped significantly the
16:22next year. So, I love CMC. I don't want him to hit this cliff, but you know, those guys were 26 and 27 years old that
16:30I just shouted out. And uh CMC is entering his age 30 season right now.
16:34>> Yeah, he's a lot riskier this year than he was the previous season, which is ironic because he was coming off injury.
16:39And you you really just want to be avoiding him when he comes off that amount of touches. I just can't ignore
16:44the upside. We're trying to come in first and second last time uh I checked in fantasy football. Like you just got
16:49to deal with the risk.
16:50>> Absolutely love that. Okay, my fifth player. I'm on Ross St. Brown. I actually changed this right before this video started. I had another wide
16:58receiver in the spot, but just going through this research, I thought to myself, I I just trust ARSB and this situation more than I do others. I mean,
17:07100 plus catches in each of the last four seasons and just the environment that he's in is fantastic. I mean, we're
17:15talking about also the team that shares, you know, the number one overall player in fantasy football this year. 12 of 16
17:22games in the fantasy season will be played indoors. I already mentioned how many games are gonna be favored in. And I keep talking about, you know, red zone
17:30and endzone targets because guess what?
17:32That's where the majority of touchdowns are scored. There are a lot of differences between Aman Ross and Brown and someone like Zay Flowers, for
17:39example, but one of them is that red zone work. I mean, Amaran Ross Brown led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last
17:47season. Comparably, Zay Flowers had 10.
17:50Aman Ross St. Brown has 66 red zone targets over the last two seasons. Z Flowers has 17. So this is someone who
17:59from your own end zone to the other end zone is going to be heavily featured and heavily target. And he even scored as
18:06the wide receiver for last year when the play caller was fired mid-season. And I expect a lot more stability from the
18:12offensive line and a coaching standpoint in 2026 here for the line.
18:16>> As safe as it gets in his prime, the offense is completely loaded. three straight seasons with double- digit touchdowns and 115 plus receptions.
18:24That's incredible stuff. There's also splits without David Montgomery as well.
18:28So, his 10ame sample where Demart either missed the game or finished with five carries that left the game early. In those games, a Monro St. Brown averaged
18:3621 PPR points on 22 expected points.
18:40Both of those would be the wide receiver one overall if you extrapolated to that.
18:44Uh he's averaged eight receptions, 102 receiving yards in those games. Like he hasn't even run hot in touchdowns in those ones. Yeah, this one's like a a
18:53total layup. I I have him eighth overall. Um I think I can make the case with him, JSN, Jonathan Taylor. They're
18:59kind of all in that range uh where I feel very good about them. A Monro's floor is just like so incredible and
19:05obviously better in full PPR.
19:06>> Okay, who's your sixth ranked pair?
19:07>> I got JSN sixth. Uh coming off an incredible season. Um that was 99.6 six receiving yards per game, including the
19:15postseason. 35% target share. Like the next closest was a Monro at 32%. That's a pretty large gap there. Uh only 8% of
19:24his targets were screen. So he wasn't doing this like as a merchant. Like he gets some of the gimme stuff, but really
19:28last year was about working the ball down the football field. That's a credit to Sam Darnold. The offensive line uh took a little bit of a step here. The
19:36one thing working against JSN is he's done it once where a lot of those guys we just talked about have done it many
19:41times. Uh and then you also have uh the loss of Clint Kubak who we fully trust.
19:46Now the new guy that they're bringing in comes from the Shanahan tree uh and Brock Huard who covers the Seahawks. He
19:54had an interesting quote about this just saying that there's no like a connection between McDonald and uh the new offensive coordinator. He just crushed
20:02the white board.
20:03>> Brian Flurry.
20:04>> Brian Flurry. Yes. Just crushed the whiteboard and was like this guy's the smartest guy in the room. Like we have
20:09to hire him. So it wasn't like some like Nepo hire. here's my bud from high school. It's like no, like no real
20:14connection, just crushed it. I kind of like that going into this. There's really like I like Rasheed Shahi and AJ Barner for what they are, but those guys
20:22aren't like target volume. So, this is going to be another huge season from JSN. I'm not really surprising anybody.
20:27I think that's a trend with Mike McDonald where he doesn't just hire friends or acquaintances like he hired, you know, the Washington offensive
20:34coordinator without ever, you know, overlapping with him and then fired him and then when Clint Kubak, I don't think he had any background with Clint either.
20:42So, he really does try to hire the best person for the job and it has worked out. Uh, JSN is going sixth on Yahoo
20:49right now. So, you're right in line with ADP. I have him as the eighth player and this is the one I was battling here with
20:54Aman Rah St. Brown. I mean, the craziest stat, I think he might have just said it. I mean, he produced 3.73 receiving
21:01yards per pass attempt for the Seahawks this year. So, it's not even per target.
21:05It was just, hey, when Seattle just threw the ball to anyone, he averaged 3.73 yards. Uh, wide receiver two in points per game last year. Hayden, do
21:15you think that this is the player though that regression is likeliest to hit more than anyone else? Like again, no Clint
21:21Kubak, we get Brian Flurry. I just overall if you play the law of averages, doubt they win the Super Bowl again this
21:27year. Maybe the Seahawks play action success drops this year versus the historic rate that it was at last year.
21:34Uh he led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off of play action last year.
21:39At the same time, even if aggression does hit, he still dominates any share that you look at of this passing attack
21:46compared to any other wide receiver of their pass attack. So, you know, Seattle might be a little bit worse in a few
21:51areas, and if they do, then they have to throw the ball more. And if they throw the ball more, guess what? JSN can fill
21:56it in with just more opportunities.
21:58>> To answer your question, there is regression coming JSN's way. It's hard at like repeat 35% target share. Like that can be, you know, down to where
22:05Monro is at 32%. Uh yards per target, 10 and a half, completion percentage over expected at plus 10%. Those are just
22:12like really unsustainable numbers. Now, you can regress those to 9.8 eight and like six uh percentage points over expected, which is like where the rest
22:20of the elite wide receivers are, and still be the third, the second, the first fantasy wide receiver. I just think the difference between, you know,
22:28like the the Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow offenses versus what one year Sam Darl, I just feel a little bit more comfy with those other two guys, but I'm
22:35not going to say anything negative about JS.
22:37>> Your seventh overall player is who?
22:39>> I got Jonathan Taylor here. uh RB3 and RB3 overall usage over the past three seasons when Shane Stiken has arrived
22:46pretty good. Uh he's had some low-end RB1 moments and then like true elite RB1 moments. I'm kind of playing in the
22:52middle ground with Daniel Jones coming off of injury here. Uh without Daniel Jones, he still had RB3 usage, just did not have the efficiency. But for for the
23:02first 13 weeks, he was the RB1 overall on RB2 usage in half PPR. Um, when Daniel Jones was like truly healthy,
23:11like remove those like fat five games where Daniel Jones was like limping around off like the broken leg that he was dealing with, it was like not even
23:17close. So, I I I want to like factor in this like monster ceiling that Jonathan Taylor has. He's the entire focal point
23:24of the offense. Alec Pierce has been dealing with injuries. We'll see what happens with Josh Downs. There's no Michael Pitman here. Like, we're running
23:31out of bodies to get the ball to. And I really have a lot of faith in Shane Stiken. The offensive line's in pretty
23:37good shape. is always in pretty good shape and like Jonathan Taylor is he's officially him. Uh forget the receptions, don't even care about that.
23:43If you're going to, you know, average almost 100 rushing yards per game, who cares?
23:47>> Just to outline what you just said, I mean, the Colts won eight games last year. In those wins, Jonathan Taylor
23:53averaged over 30 half PPR points.
23:57>> That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous.
24:00>> And then their season hit a wall and blew up because the Daniel Jones injury.
24:05And we know how the season ended because of that. I mean, it is crazy. In eight wins, which was basically eight of the
24:12first 10 games of the season, [laughter] he averaged over 30 half PPR points. So, when we talk about true league winners,
24:19yes, that's it. Like, that is what we're looking for.
24:22>> And I hate that we have to split hairs between all these players cuz I feel like I'm really high on JT this year.
24:28I'm actually optimistic about the Colts rebounding. And that even goes to like me actually wanting to draft Daniel Jones in superflex leagues of where he's
24:36being selected right now because people thinks he he sucks. But I have Jonathan Taylor as my 10th overall player. And >> I know I know WHY. BUT BECAUSE ALL THESE
24:45GUYS ARE REALLY freaking good and I have another player at number seven. I'm going to TALK ABOUT POINTS.
24:49>> I KNOW. I know. And he he owned 84% of the Colts backfield touches last season and the only addition to the backfield
24:57was a seventh round rookie who's like 26 years old.
25:00It doesn't even matter. Yeah.
25:01>> Right. So, yeah, Jonathan Taylor led the league with six yards per carry, posting a 47 48% success rate the opening 10
25:09games before Daniel Jones again >> went to the bench and all that stuff.
25:13And I don't know, maybe I should change it again.
25:16>> You You better have some really good notes for whoever you have at number seven. These notes better like completely they better sway me because
25:22you just had 30 points per game for a half season. Like these next notes better be good.
25:26>> Here's the difference. When the Colts are in negative game script, Jonathan Taylor is not as involved as other top backs are across the league. Okay. I
25:37think it all shocked us what happened in the first 10 games of last season when the Colts were the best offense in the
25:46league. And I depending on where you look right now, I think the Colts are only favored for six games heading into
25:52the season right now. And if that's the case, if they only win six games this year, I I think there's a chance that
25:58Jonathan Taylor's season might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment just because uh he is not >> his production is obviously not 30
26:07points per game and losses, but it I think he might have like the biggest difference between wins and losses in terms of the gap in his fantasy score.
26:16>> Yeah, I'm just looking at it like the last, you know, month or so of the season, he was still heavily utilized.
26:20as I'm seeing RB7 over the last four games for him in expected points. Just the efficiency wasn't there. I I do
26:26think even if Daniel Jones is not anywhere near where he was riding super hot in the first two months, it's better
26:31than what they had the very end like the Philip Rivers and the uh Riley Leonard type of games out there. So, I feel good
26:38about this. If like Daniel Jones is like healthy enough to be out there week one and like healthy enough to like keep the
26:42offense middle of the pack but not himself, like they have to rely on Jonathan Taylor even more. So, um yeah, I feel good about it. Here's my onion
26:50hanger then at seventh overall. It's Saquon Barkley. Now on every single platform that you draft off of, he's going in round two just like he is on
27:00Yahoo. But you said I better have a good player for seventh overall. How about the guy that just a couple seasons ago
27:05was the best player in fasy football and the one that you needed. And for some reason that has been forgotten about
27:12despite all of us 365 days ago selecting him as the first running back off the board. Now, what happens and what is
27:20happening right now as we enter 2026 is the entire focus of the Eagles and you know the coverage of it is just around
27:28their passing attack. Like what is Shawn Manion going to do with Jaylen Herz? How he's going to pluck different throws out
27:33of him? Today we read that so much more under center work. How is Devonte Smith going to fill in the shoes of AJ Brown
27:40as his team's top wide receiver? How is Mai Lemon and Eli Sters going to fit in the passing attack? I am telling you
27:46none of that matters as much as getting Saquon Barkley back on track like he was in 2024. Because if the running game
27:54gets back to being the most explosive and like the highest success rate unit in the league, then that makes the passing game that much easier. Like it
28:03changes the math. It forces a safety or defensive back to climb into the box and that's when you get single high and
28:10that's when you take these easier passing shots down the field. So what happened with Saquon Barkley last year, Hayden, to me actually was not an
28:18individual talent drop. It was an environmental drop. I mean, he was 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt last year when he ranked second
28:27in 2024. Despite that, he still ranked seventh in explosive runs last year with 58. He was second in that mark in 2024
28:35with 77. So, I think despite Jeff Stoutland being gone, a Hall of Fame offensive line coach, I still think just from a healthier standpoint,
28:46cohesiveness and quality offensive line is going to make Saquon Barkley get back to his best work like we saw just two
28:53seasons ago.
28:54>> I like this call. I've got him at 10th overall, so I'm ahead on every single ADP right there with you. I think that
28:59Sean Manion is going to make a huge impact there just because the last offensive coordinator just like could not string it together. They were 19th
29:05in scoring. Right now, the betting markets have the Eagles 12th. I can see them finishing seventh in scoring if Shawn Manion uh bounces back. The
29:12offensive line is all returning. Uh they just didn't play well last year. They're all banged up. Right now, Lane Johnson after training camp today said, "What I
29:19like about this is everything looks complex to the defense. To the offense, it's actually pretty simplified." Goes on to say, "The O line is it's the most
29:27friendly and maybe the past couple years he's been involved in. uh more under center stuff, just more different types of runs, more outside zone stuff. Uh I
29:36thought their offense was very predictable, like Lane Johnson was kind of laying out last year. All that stuff is going to help him out. And then plus,
29:41there's some positive regression stuff with Saquon Barkley. Last year, he had 11 carries inside the five yard line. He scored one rushing touchdown on them.
29:49Like that's, you know, that's not a Saquon Barkley stuff. That was just like Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson. They weren't healthy. And then, you know, uh
29:55Lane Johnson missed nine games. We also just talked to to Ryan in a previous episode. Maybe the tush push kind of
30:01dials back a little bit and they might have to do some other things because like some other things be like under
30:06center run to uh to Saquon Barkley this year like maybe like the the Jaylen Herz Saquon rushing touchdowns kind of even
30:12out a little bit this year more so than in other years. So I think lots of reasons to be back on the optimistic
30:17side for Saquon.
30:18>> I feel about Saquon like it did about CMC this time last year. I like that >> in that we just saw this guy win healthy
30:26rank as the number one running back and like the guy you needed in multiple seasons and because of a down season
30:33albeit CMC's was due to health and everyone drafting him that high it left like a bad taste in their mouth so they
30:38don't want to do it again the next year >> we're just getting crazy value to the point Hayden I don't know how on every
30:44single platform all of you are confidently drafting Ash and Gentyhead of Saquon Barkley that makes zero sense to to me. I mean, we're talking about an
30:52offense in the Eagles that's projected to score 24 points per game versus the Raiders at 19. Uh, you're expecting Ashen Genty behind a worse offensive
31:00line to score better than Saquon Barkley, who has a better offensive line and has already done it previously. I know the age gap is there. We're talking
31:07about a year two Ashen Genty, but that one just doesn't make any sense to me. I mean, again, two years ago in a good
31:13environment, Saquon Barkley had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. than last year just two touchdown runs of longer than 13. So
31:23I've said this in a bunch of places I want to say it in our show but I guess Saquon Barkley is like my biggest flag
31:28plant this year and that >> I like it >> should not be like a huge statement but according to drafts where he's going
31:34anywhere from like the first pick of the second round to like the fifth pick of the second round. It seems like it is.
31:39>> This is what I'm talking about where at the one two turn I want like real upside 20 plus points per game type of upside.
31:46Saquin has like literally done it before. So I I do like taking the swing there. Alo AJ Brown not being involved
31:52like could we see you know 10 more targets through across the season to Saquon Barkley to kind of break some ties like I think all those type of
31:57things are possible.
31:58>> I do want to say I'm also drafting Tank Bsby as like the best handcuff in Facebook football this season too. So if
32:04you're not drafting Saquon Barkley if you're playing best or really deep rosters in your league. Draft Tank Bsby because if you don't believe in Saquon
32:12then you should probably believe in Tank Bsby this year.
32:15>> Okay. I think we've both covered our eighth overall players where you have Aman Rossin Brown and I have Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you have no more
32:24thoughts on those names, let's jump to number nine.
32:28>> I've got Justin Jefferson. I'm ahead of Yahoo ADP at 11. Best ball slot ahead as well. I think Kyler Murray is going to
32:36be a big deal. Uh, I think if you throw out the 2025 season from the Vikings, which was horrific, uh, we're talking
32:42about Justin Jefferson averaging the most PPR points per game from 2022 to 2024. It's a three-year sample at over 20 points per game. Uh, if we remove the
32:52Josh Dobs and Jiren Hall games, there's been a lot of, you know, really bad quarterback games from Justin Jefferson.
32:58If Kyler Murray is a lot closer to Kurt Cousins, Sam Darnold tier, which if you just would have pulled us like a year
33:03ago, we would have said like absolutely he's in that tier. Uh, I think he's going to go back to where he was where
33:09at one point he had the most receiving yards per game in NFL history around 100. Now that's belongs to Puk and Aua.
33:16They were 26 in in points per game last year. I can see them being right around the top 10 if Kyler Murray like really
33:22comes along and I don't even think that he has to come along that much. Uh Justin Jefferson is going to go crazy.
33:27This is a very pass heavy offense.
33:29Always has been. That will not change with Kyler Murray. Uh, and Kyler, don't forget he had DeAndre Hopkins had 88 yards per game in 2020 with Kyler.
33:38Another 80 yards per game for DeAndre Hopkins. And then Trey McBride did have 72 yards per game as a damn tight end
33:44with Kyler Murray. Um, so like this narrative that Kyler Murray can't get it done with his top option. I think there's a difference between like prime
33:51Justin Jefferson versus like the hope of Marvin Harrison over the last couple seasons.
33:56>> Justin Jefferson's also my ninth ranked players who are back on track here together. We really are getting a discount and you outlined it well on one
34:03of the best wide receivers in the league because this offense finished 26 in scoring last year and you know the year
34:08before that with Sam Darnold they finished ninth in scoring in 2022. They finished eighth in scoring as you noted Nick Mullins, Josh Dobs, a lot of other
34:17guys have played in this offense. Uh it never looked worse than when JJ McCarthy was >> until until Brosmer showed up. Then
34:23>> untilmer showed up. Yes, that that's fair. But despite all of that and like the 26 and scoring, Justin Jefferson still was wide receiver four in team
34:32targets, was still wide receiver five in air yards. He still had 16 endzone targets, but only scored two touchdowns off of those. So
34:42everything was still going in his direction. The design of the system was still to get Justin Jefferson the football. The quarterbacks just simply
34:49couldn't do it. So, while I am not like a Kyler Murray apologist, I I think that his play has not been great over the
34:57past couple of seasons, especially at the start of last year. All I'm asking is for Kyler Murray to follow the design
35:03of the play, like trust what Kevin Okano is building, and you know, stand tall versus pressure, fire over the middle of
35:10the field. And if he does that, then Justin Jefferson's going to get right back on track and uh make us look good
35:15because we both have him above the 11th overall pick right now on Yahoo. And for stacking purposes, I do like the Kyler
35:20Murray price tag as well. So, I think I think there was kind of a big tier break after the top eightish so players. Um,
35:27like I think the difference between the Aman Rossi and Brown safety versus the Justin Jefferson like is a to me is like
35:32a mini tier right there. Uh, the Saquon Jonathan Taylor stuff, you know, like that's kind of like a totally different discussion. I think that Justin
35:39Jefferson is going to get back to the Aman Ros tier in terms of fantasy production. But you have to admit like
35:45Aman Ro's safety versus the Justin Jefferson safety. Like there is a little bit of a difference right now.
35:49>> Totally. However, we are talking about the guy that finished wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold and was the wide receiver five
35:55and points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins.
35:57>> Yeah. [laughter] >> I don't know. I think all these guys are pretty freaking good at football.
36:02>> They're sweet.
36:03>> Okay. Have you already talked about your 10th overall player? That's where I had Saquon and you had JT. Yep.
36:08>> Yes. All right. That brings us to number 11. Who do you have ranked 11th?
36:13>> I think this is where it gets really difficult. Um, I'm going with CD Lamb.
36:16He is the ninth overall player in in baseball and Yahoo ADP right now. I think there's going to be a difference
36:22between like the prime CD Lamb years versus the one where he's now uh splitting time with George Pickins. I don't want to overstate that difference
36:29though either though because uh with George Pickkins balling out, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share. He was a wide
36:39receiver eight on wide receiver six usage. He only scored uh a quarter touchdowns per game. Usually that's like 37. Uh so he was not running Todd on
36:49touchdowns this last season. I think that's kind of explains the difference between like where he was previously.
36:54Obviously 26% target share still strong at points it was over 30%. I think those little differences are the reason why we
37:01talk about CD Lamb here versus you know next to JSN but this is still the second uh fastest neutral paced offense.
37:08They're still top six and projected points this season. CD Lamb's projected for,200 yards this year. Uh the offensive line looks in good shape. Uh
37:16head coach OC all back. Um so I feel really good about all this.
37:20>> Yeah I also have CD Lamb as my 11th overall player. However, I was writing all my notes and I couldn't tell how confident I was
37:29in it as I got through it all. Not not because I don't think CD Lamb is is amazing. It did concern me though that
37:36he actually ran a career low of routes from the slot last year at what, like 35% of his snaps, which is pretty crazy
37:45to me. Now, obviously ankle injury in in week three uh stands out and then maybe the quote unquote emergence of Ryan
37:53Florenoi who is mostly a slot player maybe kept CD Lamb to the outside a bit more often compared to like the Jaylen
37:59Tolberts and whoever else of the world because I I think like that's where he his really specialness comes from is this outside to inside outside stuff and
38:08you know in our minds we were all telling people to draft George Piggin last year I'm sure many of you did that
38:12worked out incredibly well where George Pickins finishes the wide receiver six in points per game compared to CD Lamb's wide receiver 11 in points per game. At
38:22the end of the day though, I just came back to like variance just wasn't on his side. I think I read that he ranked
38:26200th across fantasy football and points over expected. So, uh he was on like a very negative end of all of that and
38:35only converted two of his 12 targets in the end zone for touchdowns last year.
38:39Yeah, my expected points. He was the wide receiver uh nine at 16.1 only scored 15.5, which usually elite players are like clearly outscoring their
38:48expected points. He was actually below expectation there, which like you said when Dak Prescott's dialed in at CD Lambs. I mean, he had a couple like
38:55pretty key drops where he's like, "Oh, what the hell is going on there?" That stuff's going to kind of even out. But I
38:59think I think your point is true. If I read my Drake London notes and look at the the market projections for him
39:06versus CD Lamb, there's like no difference. their ADP is is widely, >> but the quarterback difference is massive.
39:12>> That's that's the difference uh alone.
39:14Um but I I do think that we're talking about a kind of a different tier here.
39:18And I think some of these running backs, if you really believe in the upside, I do think you can rank them ahead of the
39:23Justin Jefferson CD Lamb tier.
39:25>> Interesting. I I would almost put it as there's a top 10, then 11th I would put CD Lamb and then I have a fascinating
39:33cluster of running backs here from 12 to >> many many picks.
39:37>> This is where the episode starts right here.
39:39>> Yes. [laughter] >> Yeah. Thanks for joining us. What uh 40 minutes in to the episode. All right.
39:45With that said, who is your 12th overall player?
39:47>> I got Kenneth Walker here. I'm taking a stand. Uh I feel really good about this after writing down all my notes. By the
39:55way, on Yahoo, his ADP is at 21. So, this is way, way different. I think if you can get him in the middle or the end
40:01of the second round, you're in really good shape. Want to go back to Andy Reed, do a little deep dive here. Back
40:07in the day, he had Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, Shawn McCoy.
40:11If you guys were playing fantasy football then and you had those running backs on your team, you were winning your fantasy league. And there at one
40:17point before we got to Kareem Hunt and Clyde Edward and those guys, >> Andy Reid was thought of as like the
40:23running back fantasy creator. And he actually like Kenneth Walker reminds me of LeShawn McCoy in the final three seasons with Shady and Andy Reid. His
40:3417g game pace was 1,800 uh scrimmage yards. There's no RB2 on this team. Like EMTT Johnson is this big. Was not a fan
40:41of as a prospect. Amari Di Marcado is kind of a pass catching change of pace guy. Like we're talking about very
40:47low-end backups. And with Patrick Mahomes, I don't think he's moving all that great in camp. It's good to see him out there. I think he's going to play
40:53week one most likely. I don't think he's going to be himself. Bring back Benmy, who's better than Matt Naggie. And then
40:58for Kenneth Walker himself, I think it's the best offensive line he's ever played behind. Those Seahawks offensive lines throughout his rookie contract weren't
41:05very good. I think Kenneth Walker is going to set a careerhigh in targets by a lot. I think his rushing numbers are
41:10going to look fantastic on a in terms of efficiency. And I don't think that this offense could afford to not give him the
41:15ball 20 plus times per game. If that happens, he has a chance to finish in that top four mix.
41:20>> This is the old adage that there's always someone higher than you on a player that you think you're well above
41:25ADP on. And that's the case here. I mean, I have Ken Walker as a 13th overall player and like you said, he's
41:31going as a ninth pick in the second round on Yahoo. Uh he's >> a little bit ahead of that in baseball
41:37right now.
41:38I I I just see a phenomenal talent that once he was given the platform to showcase that in the most important
41:45games and like some of the most difficult defenses that he faced, guess what? He ran through them. He ran around him and he ran over them. Uh I know he
41:53was drafted last year as the running back 10. Some of that was because of us.
41:58Uh and finished as the running back 28.
42:00>> We were right by the way. Look at the Super Bowl.
42:01>> We were right in [laughter] the end because if he was given the work, look what happens. And we always say, Hayden,
42:07that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. When you look at the Chiefs offense this year, the only substantial move that they made
42:16both in the draft and in free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free
42:17agency was bringing in Ken Walker the third. Like, yeah, >> I understand if you look through their rushing attack last year and the
42:23underlying metrics, they had a high success rate. Now, a lot of that was because of Patrick Mahomes's scrambling and, you know, if they needed two yards,
42:30Kareem Hunt could get them three. They were hitting kind of singles in the running game. But what they told you by
42:36paying K9 is that that doesn't matter very much. That that only gets you so far and that you have to generate
42:43explosives, especially if you can't create them in the passing game. And guess what? Now they can do that because Ken Walker is a game breaker. He's a
42:50gamecher. Uh and I cannot wait until he is behind, you know, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and the rest of this
42:57offensive line because I'm with you, like the history shows itself that Andy Reid whispers to running backs and they have >> Oh, yeah. I mean, Kareem Hunt's rookie
43:04season was phenomenal. If we get that from K9, then uh let's boogie.
43:08>> Yeah. Last three games, the postseason games, he had 35, 21, and 18 fantasy points as the bellcow here. Like that's
43:15like the pathway that we're we're going for. I also believe that he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Like
43:21I I think that we're going to like look at him as like one of the top tier like not a top like tier two, tier three
43:26running back, like in the discussion as like a top five, top 10 running back across the league.
43:30>> Yeah. I mean, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game over his last 26 games that he's reached 60%
43:37snaps. I expect him to reach 60% snaps in every single game this season. Uh yeah, I mean, I think this offense
43:44ranked like 20th in explosive carries last year. Disgusting.
43:47>> It's going to go to the moon.
43:49>> He also two years ago caught over four passes per game. It was across 11. Like the sample size of him like being able
43:55to catch passes, I think it's been proven like he has an upside there.
43:57>> I I'm right there with you. Now, unfortunately, my 12th overall player is James Cook, who I'm actually slightly behind Yahoo's ADP on. They have him
44:0610th overall, and I have him 12th overall. Um, to me, his fantasy appeal completely changed over the last two years since he took on the red zone
44:15rushing role among the running backs here for the Bills. I mean, in 2023, he had one rushing score inside the 10 yard
44:22line. move on to 2024, he had the eighth most carries inside the 10 and 11 touchdowns. Last year, again, the eighth
44:30most carries inside the 10 yard line and six touchdowns. And then if you look at un other underlying metrics for James
44:35Cook, they're all fantastic because guess what? This is a really freaking cool offense to run the football in. I mean, second in yards per rush, ninth in
44:44success rate, eighth in rate of runs of 10 plus yards, and then in terms of stuff rate, he had the second best mark
44:50in the league. So, yes, they did lose their left guard and yes, they added DJ Moore in the passing game, but I still
44:57think that James Cook, despite me, you know, bringing up Ray Davis as a really nice backup running back every single year and some other guys they have on
45:04the roster, too, uh, James Cook, I think, has established himself as like an explosive player and a very successful player in this offense.
45:11>> I got James Cook, uh, ranked 14th. He's somebody I've not been drafting a whole lot of. I don't have too many negative
45:17notes here. just breaking ties in favor of backs I think have a higher ceiling just because he's just not caught that
45:23many passes and I think there's like a reason for that such as you have Josh Allen I need to check the ball down and
45:27I think adding TJ Moore who I think they should be getting in the manufacturer touch department maybe Dalton Concaid could stay healthier this year than
45:34where he was this last season like those are the type of guys obviously Khil Shakir you like dink and dunk to and
45:40James Cook is like yeah yeah and Ty Johnson plays like real snaps in like two-minute drill and those type of things where I think James Cook
45:47something would have to drastically change with his role to finish as like the RB1. That's fine. He was the RB6 last year. He led the NFL most carries
45:56per game 19 and a half. Rushing yards per game at 98 and a half. All of it was actually sustainable, too. Like 5.1
46:02yards per carry is totally reasonable.
46:04When you play against or next to a dual threat, you're good. The offensive line's good.
46:10>> The other thing is like you lose your offensive line coach, your coordinator is now a head coach for the first time.
46:15Like you lost a veteran guard. like these little things. I don't think they're going to make that big of a difference here. But um in terms of like
46:21dreaming of like some total total crazy ceiling, I think I just see it more with like the Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker,
46:28Devon Aen range rather than James Cook.
46:30But I think the floor is like completely established here. Him in the second round makes a lot of sense.
46:35>> Your point on him likely not having a running back one overall season in his range of outcomes is a fair one. Again,
46:44I would rank Bejon, Jir, CMC, Saquon, and Jonathan Taylor with, you know, a higher likelihood of that. I mean, K9
46:54maybe than James Cook probably, but then I I just look at this environment and think maybe this is hitting a triple,
47:01but maybe I'm okay hitting and then and then [clears throat] someone else can, you know, get me to home base at the
47:05end.
47:05>> Yes, I I think that's totally fair. I was just looking at his ADP was 10th overall and I I feel like usually
47:10there's a little bit higher of a ceiling, but his floor is >> outstanding when you're in this this offense. He's a very good player in the
47:16prime of his career. Four out of five offensive linemen are returning. Same play caller as it was this last season.
47:21He's good. Uh you know, I don't have too many negative notes here.
47:24>> And if you play full PPR, Reeves noted this that James Cook has been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his 33 games over the
47:31past two seasons. Only Bejon and Jir Gibbs have more.
47:34>> Yep. So, he keeps you in it every single week is one way of putting it.
47:38>> All right, Ken Walker is my 13th overall player. Who's your 13th overall player?
47:42>> I've got Devon Aan at 13th overall here.
47:45I understand the downside risk. You lose Mike McDaniel, who is excellent. Uh Malik Willis instead of Tua. I understand the concerns. I'm also
47:53looking at it where I know I have a superstar talent. I think the Dolphins offensive line is actually pretty dang good. I mean, Patrick Paul emerged as a
48:03really strong left tackle, a really freak athlete, young player, getting better. Aaron Brewer, uh, Brandon Thorne, uh, said he was the best
48:11offensive lineman in the NFL. You can watch a highlight tape of Aaron Brewer getting to the second level and absolutely just shredding dudes. And
48:17then Kaden Proctor is their left guard.
48:19So, like their entire left side to me looks really good. Ken Proctor's 360 pounds, moves well. Uh, and I don't like
48:26Sloic that much, but he at least was there with Devon AJ last year and Mike Mandle. They're going to pick up on, you
48:31know, get get Devonte Chain the ball on the outside and like figure things out.
48:34And then you look at the receiving work.
48:36How could he not finish with 80 plus targets this year? I mean, look at the receivers. Like I I think even with
48:41Malik Willis, isn't he like near the bottom of the list in terms of targeting running backs? I know this is like a
48:46tiny sample we're talking with here, but typically scrambling quarterbacks do not throw to their running. I think it's inexcusable to not scheme up four
48:53targets to Devonte Chain per game, no no matter what. And like to me it should even be higher than that. Like you
48:58they're going to throw the ball. Every offense still throws the ball 25 plus times per game. Like you can only get so
49:03many targets to everybody else. I think it's way too easy to get Devon in the ball. And last note, I'll I'll say
49:09losing Mike McDaniel does hurt. But having a dual having a dual threat quarterback next to you also opens up another about one uh plus yards per
49:19carry more. We see this across every single running back in scheme out there.
49:23We have not seen Devon with a threat next to you like stopping the zone read with Malik uh uh Willis and Devon is
49:30going to be a problem. So I think there's just no way that the Dolphins could not build their entire offense around him. Even if they're bad, I think
49:37he still gets it done.
49:38>> This hurts me so much. You know, last summer I was just relentlessly drafting.
49:42Devon Achan was one of my highest drafted players if I was close to the turn. I think he's a superstar in the
49:48league. one of the more unsung superstars because he's not just an inspace runner. He actually can take break tackles between the tackles, too.
49:54He's he's very successful there. Hayden Devon is my 18th overall player. I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I I am I'm a bit terrified by this environment
50:06and it goes from like the play caller to the offensive line and to losing Mike McDaniel. Again, we just had Ryan on the
50:12show yesterday and Mike McDaniel in terms of 10 plus yard design runs over 70 games coached ranks third. Guess where Bobby Slo ranks? You know, 19.
50:22>> How much is that a Devon Aan stat though? I think that's the hard part to detangle here.
50:25>> There's also Moser, but I mean Mike McDaniel also was the architect of Kyle Shanahan's rushing game. Like he has been doing this for a very, very, very
50:33long time. And I know Bobby Slo during his time with the Houston Texans. And I've actually been a bit of an apologist
50:38for Bobby Slowick because that rookie season for with CJ Stradout. Uh he's just never had it that great of a rushing attack other than, you know, Joe
50:45Mixon's, let's say, not 12th overall player rushing stuff. And then if you look at, you know, avoiding negative runs, uh
50:54Bobby Slugg's 25th on that list. So >> I love Devon Achan. I actually like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback
51:05dart because the rushing gives you the floor and then the passing is the upside. Greg Doulich is like a tight end
51:12sleeper here. I just don't know among all this cluster of running backs. I mean I I think I have the most
51:18environmental questions about Devon Chan and maybe that's clouding my judgment here too much.
51:22>> I think this we got to remember where we're starting off with. He averaged 20 fantasy points per game last year, you
51:26know, in full.
51:28>> It's a totally different group.
51:30chop off four fantasy points, five fantasy points per game, he still finishes in this range. Like I think the starting point is so high. I don't
51:37remember the Dolphins lighting it up last year and he was still the RB5 on RB5 usage because the the receiving work, the rushing, the run system, like
51:46all of it was so exceptional. So exceptional. I just don't think it's going to be. And look, like you said, I
51:52think we do forget that Bobby Sloick coached under Mike McDaniel last year, so maybe he did pick up on a lot of
51:57stuff, but their offenses, the last time that Sloick had a system that he designed, look totally different than what they ran last year.
52:03>> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. For sure. Bobby Sick's got to step up here. Absolutely.
52:07Fully believe in you. And still, the Dolphins are going to pick up touchdowns and yards this year and receptions.
52:12Like, we have to throw them to somebody.
52:14Like, I think Devon would probably be a good start. We do plan on doing a round two and three version of this as well.
52:20So I'll have a lot more to say about Devon Achan during that time unless I move him to, you know, the 15th overall
52:25player or the 12th overall player by by that point. Okay. I already mentioned that my 13th overall player is Ken Walker the third. So we're back to you
52:33Hayden. Who is your 14th?
52:34>> I that's where I had James Cook. So back to you.
52:36>> Okay. Well, this is where I have Amaran Hampton. So maybe this is a similar conversation to one that we we just had.
52:41Yeah. I mean I don't want to just continue to wax poetic around Mike McDaniel, but guess what? Like that's a major factor in why I have Amarin
52:50Hampton ranked this high. I mean running backs attached to Mike McDaniel over the last three years. Devon Achin ranked as the running back five in points per game
52:57last season. Running back 11 in points per game the year before that. And yeah, I mean in 2023 he had both the running
53:04back three and running back four in points per game. And just the environment that McDaniel brings to the system. I mean, in Miami, his offense is
53:12ranked fifth in yards per rush, fifth in success rate, and first in explosive plays. And so, you look at Amarin Hampton, who has outstanding speed for
53:21his size. That's what pops off immediately for me. Like, I I don't think he necessarily has a great feel for the position in terms of setting up
53:27defenders or lanes. He has like a a different way of attacking Final Contact where he like spins and twists and turns
53:34all around it. But I'm kind of at the point where I want to set aside my individual evaluation of Amarin Hampton
53:41and just believe in what is being created here because the Chargers also have the fifth best offensive line according to Brandon Thorne. Uh and if
53:50you give Amarin Hampton space on 52 runs when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage last season, he averaged 7.4
53:58yards per carry, which was seventh in the league. And he's going to get that way more than 52 times this season. I
54:04got a Marian Hampton 22nd overall. This is I would label this as like the scariest fade of the season for me
54:11because like he's got home run ability.
54:13He's a goal lineback and this offense could go absolutely crazy here. I just think the the the possible reasons why he finishes closer as like a low-end RB1
54:21is this turns into maybe a little bit more of a committee than some of the other backs in there. I didn't love
54:25Hampton's pass protection. I that this is like not the biggest like concern, but I do think Kamani Vidal is good at
54:31that. And this might be more of a three running back rotation than a lot of like the either no rotation or the one-two
54:37punch rotations of the other guys around him. But if he's so good, then like screw Kamani Ball and Keaton Mitchell and that's how he can finish as a top
54:44five fantasy running back. Um maybe I just like don't love those odds versus where he's going. Um I was also looking
54:50at the Mike McDaniel stuff. Uh this last season, defenses were treating the rushing scheme a lot different and way fewer too high shell looks uh for for
55:00their rush attempts. Only 16% of the Dolphins run last year.
55:03>> Throw it down the field.
55:04>> Exactly. So, I think that's going to be the the interesting part of this offense is how are defenses going to be scared
55:10of the two high shell because that's where Mike McDaniel was absolutely ripping these runs across and you just like get into the perimeter and Devon is
55:15just picking up 10 yards per carry or do they rotate him in the box and then make Justin Herbert went over the top and
55:23that would be pretty exciting too. I think it's gonna be really good offense to kind of figure that out. But I do
55:26think that defenses have found some adjustments to like the peak seasons of like 2023 and crowding the box is is kind of one of them. Uh, I think you are
55:35right if he plays more of the passing down situations and if Katon Mitchell is not averaging eight carries per game and
55:41that's back to five, four, five carries per game. And then I might be right if Vid Doll is mixing in and Katon
55:47Mitchell's getting eight carries per game and then he's a electric player but kind of inconsistent versus the other guys around. But I think a very
55:54difficult one and if you wanted to rank him as high as like 10th overall like I do see that the the upside here. At the
56:00same time, I think there's a chance for like everyone gets home in this offense.
56:05I mean, you know, the 2023 Miami Dolphins with Tua at quarterback scored the second most points at 29 per contest. And again, that was when they
56:13had two top four scoring running backs in point points per game. We know what Tyreek Hill and Jaylen W, whoever else
56:18you want to throw in there, >> did that season, too. So, like, there's a chance that everything is so good that
56:23it's not, hey, you have to take from this guy to give to this guy. That they all just get there with efficiency and
56:28stuff. And I think that is in the range of outcomes here. And I'll throw in that Demar and Hampton caught five or more
56:33passes in four of his games played last year. So I think there's a chance where >> they have some heavier looks where they
56:40keep in Charlie Kolar or they keep in Alec Ingold to help with this protection and then they run like two main routes
56:47down the field with Omar and Hampton like slipping out and like that's how he can get four, five, six catches per game
56:53too.
56:54>> That's a great point too. Omar and Hampton just his receiving work is hard to get a good feel for because as a
56:59receiver I think he's very good and then in pass protection I thought he had no clue where he was going uh last year. So
57:05it's like another one of these things where it's like I know he's going to catch a bunch of passes. It has to be
57:08kind of schemed up for him, but Mike is a pretty good guy to be in charge of that. So >> all right, put a pin in that for our
57:14round two three conversation here in the next couple weeks. All right, we'll close it out here with our 15th overall player. Who's yours?
57:20>> I got Ashen Genty here. There's a couple other players I have in consideration like mainly Derrick Henry. I keep going
57:25back and forth, so maybe if you have some notes to kind of split this tie for me. Let's start with Genty because he's
57:30uh 11th in baseball EDP. He's 12th in Yahoo ADP. And then I I know a lot of sharp people even have him higher than
57:37that. Starting point last year, RB11 usage like did not come off the field.
57:42Finishes the RB16 in half PPR.
57:44Obviously, the offensive line, Chip Kelly, everything was a stone cold disaster. That's going to get better.
57:49That's enough for him to finish as a top 10 fantasy running back this year. If he doesn't, that is a really really bad bad
57:55sign. My individual uh opinion on Ashton Genty is that I also thought he was making bad decisions and not did not
58:03have the play speed versus all the guys he's being drafted against. And I fear that he's going to be closer to Josh
58:09Jacobs who I really like his rushing style, but it's a different tier player.
58:12And the offensive line's getting better.
58:14Linder Bomb, Colton Miller coming back at left tackle. But the other guard spots I think are still pretty bad. uh DJ Glaze, the right tackle, that's still
58:22pretty bad out there. Um and the entire offense like still could be be pretty bad even if we think that they're going
58:29to get a little bit better. Uh >> supposed to be the pro case here as your 15th overall player. [laughter] >> Well, he's not coming off the field. So,
58:36there's that. And I could be wrong.
58:38That's the other thing. It's like he could be awesome. Like he he's supposed to be awesome. I just wasn't getting the
58:43senses that he's gonna like go crazy in terms of like now he's just like ripping off explosives left and right and it's
58:49like Saquon Barkley. I just don't think I saw Saquon Barkley on tape last year even taking in the obviously bad environment.
58:56>> Yeah. What I loved about Ashen Genty coming out of Boise State was his run stamina. How he could break like three,
59:02four tackles in the same run and that would allow him to get you know 40 50 yard touchdown runs and then it wouldn't
59:08just be one time in a game. it would be multiple times in a game. And that style is just more difficult in the NFL and
59:14it's especially difficult when probably at best you have an average offensive line and last year obviously maybe the league worst offensive line. It's
59:22interesting. I'm I'm looking at our colleagues here at Yahoo and you and I rank Ashen Genty by far the lowest.
59:28You're at 15th overall. I'm at 17th overall. Uh I don't want to out people but like Joel Smith has him at ninth
59:34overall. Harmon and Boone have him 11th overall. That's just too rich for me.
59:39And again, I just don't see how anyone can take, you know, him over Saquon Barkley, even if, you know, Ashen Genty
59:46plays 88% of the snaps this year. I I just think like from an environmental standpoint, and like big play potential, uh, Saquon's just a better pick here.
59:55>> I agree. There was a really cool research by Sam Hoppin, if you guys want to go read this column, where he was
60:00looking at yards before contact, which everyone's like, that's a offensive line stat, and to some degree it is an offensive line stat. He was trying to
60:07come up with like ways to like factor in what should the expected yards before contact. And when he was looking at
60:12that, it's like, okay, are you running towards the perimeter? You get more yards before contact. That makes sense.
60:17How many defenders in the box is there that makes sense to account for? He started accounting for all these variables, including the offensive line,
60:23including the dual threat ability of the quarterback. And then he looked at what are the running backs doing, accounting for all the environment. And Ashen Genty
60:32was the worst running back in football in terms of avoiding yards before contact, running into defenders, staying behind the line of scrimmage for too
60:40long where where players are coming and rallying before him. It was like the only running back to finish like below uh a certain point. And that's
60:49concerning because that's kind of what I was seeing on tape and like if you like the really really sickos and that know
60:54all this modeling and stuff, that's what they're coming up with too. Uh, it makes me a little bit nervous that he's going
60:59to be a fine player, but not, you know, the next Bejon, Saquon, those type of guys.
61:04>> Can we just take a moment for strategy corner real quick? Because if you're, I don't know, pick 10, 11, 12. Again,
61:12there's this cluster of running backs.
61:13You can go from James Cook, Genty, Zaquin, Achan, Chase Brown, Hampton, Dererick Henry. Choose two of your favorites. going with two of those and
61:23comparing that to let's say the running backs in round five and six which are you know Dave Montgomery, Trevian Henderson, Quinn John Judkins, Bucky
61:33Irving to you know round six that's Chuba Hubard Jadarian Price versus you know the wide receivers that are in rounds five and six Terry McLaren Luther
61:44Burton Christian Watson Roma Dunay Mike Evans I mean the list goes on and on like I I would much rather take the
61:51package that it's those two early running backs and the two later wide receivers versus the two early wide receivers or even just one early wide
61:59receiver and then having to take one of those running backs in that range too.
62:02>> I see the same thing. I'll even say the round three four turn has every one of the wide receivers that we are trying to
62:07break ties in in favor of Jaylen Wald Malik Neighbors in that tier. Lad Maki, Mecha Ibuka, you can pick a veteran and
62:14a young guy like Zay Flowers.
62:16>> There's literally 12 of them. Uh you can go wide receiver, wide receiver in that range as well. So >> yeah, I I think Derrick Henry is like
62:24the one name I regret not like in involving in here just because, you know, he just, you know, uh finished as
62:30the uh RB8 with Lamar Jackson not even playing that season. Uh and he's projected for 12 and a half touchdowns in in the betting markets. That's the
62:38most rushing touchdowns uh in the NFL in the projections. And you know, he's not a top 15 guy in half PPR. That that
62:43might come back to bite us again.
62:45>> Yeah, maybe I'll regret it too because he's not my 15th overall player. But hey, that that's a great lead into again
62:50when we do the round two three show and uh you guys should subscribe to watch that one when it comes out and hits your
62:55feed. My 15th overall player is Chase Brown.
62:58>> Okay.
62:58>> Uh and this is kind of again drafting the environment over the individual talent. Like as an individual player, I don't think Chase Brown belongs in that
63:07group of all the running backs that we just listed. Uh so again, maybe that comes back to bite me, but what you are
63:14getting here is just a team that scores a whole bunch of points and literally zero competition. And it's not just competition between the 20s. It's also
63:23once you get inside the red zone where Chase Brown played 74% of the snaps last year, which is the running back five on
63:30the season. Um obviously it was a bad start to last year. We all kind of regretted cha taking Chase Brown and
63:35that was, you know, aided by Joe Burrow going down. But once Joe Flacco was named the starter instead of Jake Browning, they averaged he averaged 105
63:44yards from scrimmage over the last 11 weeks was the eighth most among all backs. Um and then when Joe Burrow returned, you know, peak form of this
63:52team, Apex Mountain, Chase Brown went nuclear. I mean, he was seven, excuse me, second in running back points per game, uh and hit, you know, 20 points
64:02per contest and half PPR scoring, which is exactly what you want. So, the environment is simply sensational.
64:09They've returned all five starting offensive linemen. If they stay healthy, then at worst, I think this is like a league average offensive line. And uh
64:18again, that's just a situation that I want pieces of. And uh Chase Brown in round two uh is really appealing to me.
64:26>> Over the past two seasons, there's 21 games with Joe Burrow. He's the RB12 and RB5 usage. So, like that goes to your
64:32point where he's like not like the greatest player ever, but he's he's a starting level player in this league.
64:37Just in 2025 though, there was six games with Burrow. He was the RB5 on RB4 overall usage. Um, so >> team's getting better. The offensive
64:47line's way better now than it was before. Like that's where like Chase Brown could like become one of these guys that's like a no doubt about it,
64:54top 10 fantasy running back. And then we're like looking at our Genty teams.
64:57We're like, damn. Like I'm watching Raiders games versus Bengals games and I got >> I got the Raiders running back.
65:03>> Here's a crazy stat for you from Reaps.
65:05The Bengals are currently favored in 15 games this year heading into the season.
65:09>> They can win the Super Bowl. Like obviously that's how good this team is.
65:14>> 15 games they're favored in. And you know, running back points are pretty freaking good in in games that you win.
65:19Oh, and guess what? if they have to throw the ball and they're trailing, uh, only Devon Achan, Bejian Robinson, and Jir Gibbs have more receptions than
65:26Chase Brown over the past two seasons.
65:29>> And I got the inverse of that. Uh, three or, uh, three or fewer yards to go. Uh, he was the RB2 and rush yards over
65:36expected. He was RB8 and rushing success rate across all of the Burrow games.
65:41Three yards, four yards, doesn't matter.
65:43Um, so the efficiency rebounded as a rusher. And I think that's a credit to like the Amarius Mims picks in the first
65:49round just kind of figure out some of the guard spots that they have out there where all of a sudden the offensive line
65:54you can like credibly say it's like a league average offensive line not you know 30th in the NFL.
65:59>> Yeah. But you know keep drafting players on bad teams ahead of him. [laughter] >> I think I need to move up. I need to
66:06move up Chase Brown. If you read my Chase Brown in my Ash and Genty thing, you'd be like it's not even close. So yeah.
66:12>> Oh, I love it. I absolutely love it.
66:13What can go wrong? Uh, let's save the best for last. You ready? Stats vs. Film returns tomorrow. So, you get a Stats
66:19vs. film episode for your weekend. So, if you made it over an hour into this episode, let us know in the comments
66:25down below who we did not mention in our top 15s that you have in your top 15s.
66:30And let's say the biggest home run swing and shout. Uh, I'll give a big massive comment to down below. So, let us know
66:38who you rank in your top 15. That's going to do it for us. Shout out to Weeaves and Mosho behind the scenes. I
66:43know all of you want our rankings. We'll have an announcement for that very, very soon for all of you to grab them and use
66:50them in your drafts this year. All right, everyone. Up the bill. We'll talk to you guys soon. See you.
