0:00This is an important episode. I mean, last year you saw that quarterbacks took massive leaps in from year one to year
0:07two, and that bore itself out in terms of fantasy points. I mean, Drake May finished as the quarterback two in points per game after being drafted as
0:13the quarterback 13 last September. Caleb Williams, the quarterback, eight in points per game after being drafted as the quarterback 14. And conversely, Jane
0:21Daniels drafted as the quarterback three, finished a, you know, up down stop start year as the quarterback 17 in points per game. That's what we're going
0:29to talk about here today. The year 2 breakouts at quarterback. Four names Hayden and three guys locked into their starting jobs and one who probably will
0:38draw a few starts this year too.
0:39>> Uh perhaps so. Uh well it depends on how you would grade those starts from last year. But I think what you said just
0:45throwing out some of those quarterbacks, there was very clear narratives and about their rookie seasons that you had to make the the argument is it going to
0:53get better or was that just kind of the baseline for what there is? That's that was Caleb Williams in the sacks. That
0:58was Drake May just being playing a little bit quicker and then using his legs a little bit more. Uh accuracy, all
1:03those type of things where like you can see the potential. Are they going to hit it? Is there something about the college
1:08profile to the growth to the rookie year? There's a lot of little things we have to kind of nitpick. Uh and I think
1:12these guys and this next crop of guys, they have a lot to work on.
1:14>> Harp on that point a little bit more. So often once we see these college quarterbacks in the NFL, their rookie
1:20season almost anchors the opinion on what it is for the remainder of their rookie contract. And so we're going to talk about that opinion that we have
1:26from them, not just as prospects, but as rookies and then what can improve and what might not. And for me, I know so
1:33much of the improvement or scaling down a bit can come from the environmental change. So we'll factor all those in here today. So we're not going to go by
1:41ADP order where these guys are being drafted on underdog right now. By the way, we're going to do that when we talk
1:45about tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers the rest of this week in our year two breakout week. Instead, we're going to start with where these
1:51guys were drafted in the actual NFL draft. So, let's kick things off with Cam Ward. We know the first overall pick
1:57in the 2025 NFL draft. Right now, being selected as quarterback 22, the fourth pick of the 12th round. What did you see
2:04when reviewing I'll say it, all of Cam Ward's dropbacks during his rookie season.
2:09>> Very up and down. I really hope Cam Ward turns out to be a guy because the arm strength is it's a tier stuff and there
2:16was some ridiculous throws both in structure and out of structure. Rolling to his right, rolling to his left, and he can really whip it in there. He's
2:22kind of an old school gunslinger uh type. Um and he's got the arm talent where if this thing clicks, then you're
2:29going to have a fun quarterback.
2:30Unfortunately, there's not a single statistical argument in favor of Cam.
2:35We're talking about QB 38 in EPA for dropback, 39th in passing success rate, 40th in catchable ball right ball rate.
2:42That was out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. caveats are the offensive line was bad, the scheme was bad, the receivers were even, I would say, worse
2:51than the other two factors in there. Uh, things got a little bit better, but it's not fixed for Cam Ward. And then I think
2:57I have some issues just based off his own tape where he really has to progress here, not just to be like a good
3:02quarterback. I think there's a lot of progression that needs uh for him just to even be an average quarterback in the
3:07NFL right now.
3:08>> Interesting. Uh, he was selected as the number one overall pick. He did not play statistically as you said like you want
3:15the number one overall pick to do. But I would say my observation, my belief in him is kind of unchanged of who he is as a player and
3:25how he needs to win in the NFL as it was with him entering the league. We we talked about it. He, you know, just has
3:31a dynamite arm and you see it on definitely these like posts and and corner routes that these sideline passes that to me he throws with an
3:40anticipation to layer it in on these intermediate and especially downfield passes. Uh they can come from a awkward angles, but man, the the loft, the
3:48trajectory, the velocity, it pops out of his hand is a lot of fun. But then like you said, you look at the underlying
3:55numbers. Uh bottom seven EPA per drop back since 2016 among quarterbacks. Also in that time frame, only Deshun Kaiser had a lower success rate. But you know
4:05me, Hayden, I I I like to factor in the environment that he played in. And boy oh boy was it absolutely brutal. And you
4:13know, some of the first round picks that they spent on the offensive line haven't really worked. I look at you at right
4:18tackle uh and then at left tackle and Dan Moore, not great. and then having to literally thrust and build a passing
4:25attack at times around Alec Aaymanor and Shamir DK and like Van Jefferson as we went through and through and then starting seasons off with like against
4:36the Denver Broncos for example from start to finish when your play caller and head coach also gets fired mid-season this is somewhat similar to
4:45like a situation that Caleb Williams found himself in during his rookie year but you know you and I had real confidence that Caleb immediately would
4:53come in in year two and like take it to >> multiple notches, not just the surrounding talent, but also the play
4:58caller and head coach. Were you on that spectrum that Cam Ward can do something similar here in year two?
5:03>> I have my doubt just because the Titans infrastructure is still I think really bad. Like I like Carnell Tate for sure.
5:09Uh do you know who their center is? Do you know who their other guard is? It's still the same >> like the backup center for Brian Day or
5:16has played underneath him in the past.
5:17So yes, it's a lot of Dayball's buddies here.
5:19>> Yes. And then it's Dayball, which by the way, Dayball was fun for for Jackson Dart in terms of like fantasy points
5:25because he kept, you know, calling these run plays. Cam Ward, I think's a fine athlete. You just really never see it in
5:31terms of the ground game. And I think that's going to be the hard part because the Jackson Dart drop backs, which we
5:35get to, there wasn't a bunch of creativity in the past game. Uh, and he's going to have to build that for for
5:39Cam Ward. So, uh, excluding all the like, you know, environmental factors here, just like getting back to what Cam Ward, the process and all that types of
5:46stuff, I thought his accuracy was a little bit underwhelming, the the the arm talent is about just delivering the football instantaneously with a ton of
5:57RPMs. I thought him layering the ball was a little bit more hit and miss. The downfield stuff was really bad in terms
6:02of catchable ball rate, which was kind of surprising to me. And it's not an arm strength issue, it's kind of the
6:08accuracy. And I do think we talked about this in his Cam Ward Miami film is there would be some times where he was a tick
6:17late and he had the arm talent to still rifle it in there and he would make good on that. In the NFL, I think him being a
6:23tick late did kind of catch up to him. I think he had a really bad pick six on a checkown where he just did not check
6:29things out. On other drop backs, I thought there would be somebody coming open, he was a little bit late and by
6:34the time he rifled in there, then you have an interception there. And then the other weird thing that came up with him
6:39is these fumbles. He had uh 2025 leading 11 fumbles. He has tiny hands. If for those that care about this, some of them
6:46like on the windup sometimes he'd be kind of scrambling around the ball get kind of hit. A lot of these were kind of
6:51self-inflicted. And that had me a little bit kind of spooked because if the environment is going to stay bad and he's making mistakes that are just
6:59purely based on him, that's where I'm worried about the 2026 version of Cam Ward here just because I still don't trust the Titans infrastructure. I mean,
7:06two years ago, the Titans had a season with Will Levis at quarterback. He had one of those, you know, mind-numbing plays that seemed like at least one
7:12every single game. Uh, it was funny, you and I, knowing that Kam was going to go first, the Titans said, "Buckle your
7:19seat belts, Titans fans, because you're going to get similar things here with K." It felt like one time per game, he
7:24he made a play that uh literally would destroy a drive, give it to the opposition. Just craziness. And I think that sometimes comes from him wanting
7:33to, you know, change the outcome of a contest on every single drive. Like he is a big play hunter and you'll see that
7:40with how long he holds onto the football, how much he wants to drift and drift and drift. And I I think Brian Dal
7:47wants to change that this year. Like adding Juan Del Robinson, for example, gives you a quick access player, right?
7:54someone who can win easily, back foot, release it, choice routes, all that type of stuff. You also have someone like Carell Tate who can go up and is a
8:02technician as an outside wide receiver at really every level of the field, a a trusted pair of hands that you can't
8:09point to last year having that. I mean, there are these plays against like the Broncos, I think this was in week one if
8:15I'm not mistaken, where second and eight, deep in his own half, he is really wide open on a dig route, but the
8:21right tackle gets pushed back into his lap a bit. So instead of kind of trusting his progre progression, excuse me, and his protection, he drifts and
8:28buys time and he still throws it to Calvin Ridley on like the opposite side of the field out of structure for a gain
8:34of 12. Even though in structure in phase that pass could have been right there for also a gain of 12 yards, but then
8:40two plays later, he hits that same dig route over the middle of the field, but then Calvin really drops it on top of
8:46it. So I even saw like progression in games. However, you didn't see progression for the entire season just because of the useless, abominable, like
8:57awful environment that he was in.
8:59>> Almost gave a platform for zero type of success or consistency.
9:04>> Yeah, I I saw the same build on, I guess, is what I'm saying.
9:07>> Yeah, I see the same thing. Like the outer structure plays were nice. They were not so bankable. Like when we were
9:13watching Caleb Williams, we're like, "All right, the level of athleticism from Caleb Williams, like this is going to happen forever." Cam Ward's a tier
9:19below that. Even if they have the same kind of, you know, arm talent, Caleb Williams just moving differently. Drake May, his scramble ability, just a way
9:28different tier than what we're dealing with with Cam Ward. And I thought that the floor remains pretty concerning because there were a lot of sacks that
9:35were Cam Ward sacks. And then you said too long >> too long. And that's and that's it's it's exactly what we said about him in
9:42college where we're going to be really excited. It's going to hopefully take not as much time as I think it is after
9:48studying this tape. And maybe he can turn into like this Jordan Love type of player who holds on the ball, throws the
9:53ball down the field, but the arm talent takes over. We're pretty far away from that in my opinion. I think if Cam
9:59Ward's going to hit, it's going to take multiple years from now. And I think that he has a lot of work uh work to do
10:05to kind of speed up this thing. And then also he the mistakes just cannot be I'm fumbling the ball in the pocket for
10:12fumble sixes the other way, right? And hopefully those are just rookie mistakes and hopefully it's just because he doesn't trust trust the right tackle
10:17play caller Ellumor all those type of things but at some point the success rate is so low that to get to league
10:25average this is going to take a little bit longer than I was hoping for.
10:28>> Yeah, there there's a difference in you know missing a sideline route and throwing it out of bounds and like that's a negative play versus your
10:34negative play against the Miami Dolphins like just losing a fumble for no reason.
10:39Just a total lack of protecting the football. Um, it's interesting and this goes back to exactly his time with the Hurricanes where I think when he puts
10:48his foot in the dirt and is decisive on scrambling, he has some really nice moments of picking up 12 to 13 yards.
10:56And I really hope that Brian Dball can coax that out of him versus just this hold on to it, hold on to it mentality.
11:03And then there were a couple of plays where moving laterally and getting to the corner that he could evade some sacks. But I'm kind of 5050 split on if
11:12he has the athleticism that can sustain that as his career goes along because it it almost felt like to me, oh, he just
11:20evaded that versus actually having like real burst to to be dangerous in that area. I >> just overall maybe I'm misinterpreting
11:28what you're saying. I believe I'm more optimistic that he can actually turn around immediately, that he can be a really fun watch and a really enjoyable
11:37quarterback here this season because just the environment is going to get so much better. And that combines with that he has a short memory. Like he'll make
11:46those mistakes and then oh in the fourth quarter even if I'm down by 13 points I see a one-on-one shot, I'm taking it.
11:53And I I again I think that's a great mentality to have. Just to go quickly into the structural environment he had
11:59last year. The Titans were first in the NFL with 78% of their snaps being in 11 personnel. Okay. While using shifts and
12:06motions at the second lowest rate in the league and then they were under center just 25% of the time. That was 24th in
12:13the league and also number one in 3x1 sets. So everything was vanilla.
12:18Everything was a bit static. It was a bit stationary. It wasn't creative at all. It didn't feel like he had a bunch
12:24of open receivers once he hit the end of his drop. And then when he did fire it into these tight windows or downfield
12:29shots or one-on-one stuff, he didn't get a ton of help in a lot of those situations. And then when other things
12:35did go well, he held it on too long and had some misses on top of it. So again, it was like this circular cycle that was
12:43kind of self-eing at this point. And uh you just couldn't escape that during his rookie season.
12:47>> And the defense was bad. So hopefully the defense add a lot of players on defense plus Robert Salah that hopefully
12:53like he can stay ahead of the change.
12:54You can get a little bit different of of an offense. I think traits wise like I'd be curious if you have like a good comp
12:59for like a high-end outcome. Jordan Love is kind of like the northstar for me just like as a prospect. That's still
13:05the path I'm hoping he takes. And I think that Jordan Love flashes a little bit of athleticism but nothing too crazy. He's just going to win by having
13:13crazy arm talent. I just think that when Jordan Love saw the field after sitting for a little bit, he was just kind of a
13:20lot further ahead on this this timeline than Cam Ward. Remember, Cam Ward's an air raid guy. Uh so I think there could
13:26be a little bit of a transition time.
13:28The underdog picking lobby, it's only at 17 and a half touchdowns here. So like the bar is pretty low just like setting
13:33expectations. And I do fear that how intriguing his five ten best plays of the year is a little bit kind of, you
13:42know, coding over like what happened on a play by play basis. So I I had a lot of fun watching him. I really hope he's
13:48good. Uh I'm maybe kind of have my eyes towards 2027 and 2028 uh rather than like being super optimistic for this
13:56year. week one, I just want the structure to have some semblance to it and then for it to be on him if he fails
14:03versus, you know, a couple times per game, it's on him that he fails, but then many others that someone is slipping or sliding or blowing a block
14:11or dropping a pass and >> uh give him a platform to uh have a real chance for for multiple weeks. The other
14:17part of this though, and it's kind of been swept under the rug this off seasonason, is that he suffered a shoulder injury during the final game of
14:26the season, uh he did avoid surgery on this right AC joint sprain, his throwing shoulder. Um I'm sure everyone believes he's going to be perfectly healthy
14:34entering the year, but that is something that obviously when you prepare for the draft, you don't have as much time as
14:40other quarterbacks do uh getting ready for a season and preparing for that. And then right now, whatever time he does miss, uh, that is also kind of impacting
14:50whatever potential year two jump you can have. All right, before we get to the next name, our goal this year and even
14:56ahead, maybe in just a couple months, 200,000 subscribers here on the channel.
15:01Yeah, sure. First, we have to hit 175K, but look, we want to be the source for you to help you win your fantasy
15:08football draft. That's it. We want you to beat up your buddies, win your league, and uh have a bit more cheddar
15:13at the end of the season. So, our entire goal this summer is to create actionable and good entertaining info for you here
15:20on the YouTube channel, and that forces you to subscribe. So, it's totally free to all of you. And thank you to everyone
15:26who has hit that button and watched it over the last 5 years. Let's put it that way. All right. The other first round
15:31quarterback, Jackson Dart, from your favorite team, the New York Giants, right now being selected as quarterback 12, the 10th pick of the eight eighth
15:40round. When you went back and watched Jackson Dart, what did you see? I think there's a pretty promising player with Jackson Dart. Just looking at it
15:48statistically real quick, 13th in EPA per play, 17th in success rate per play.
15:53I'm using per play because a lot of the stuff is based off what he did as a rusher. It was the second most total
15:58EPA, only trailing Josh Allen on the ground. I do think that's here to stay for the most part because he is he's
16:05quite the athlete. I think comfortably he's a top 10 athlete among starters in the NFL. We're not talking about Jaden Daniels. We're not talking about Josh
16:14Allen that next tier down, I do think Jackson Dar is firmly in there and that provides a floor. He has a ways to go as
16:21a passer, but when I'm watching like shake Zack Bond uh in open field uh putting his head down, uh he was like
16:27splitting defenders on tape, I think that's a real stuff that's going to buy him time to get more comfortable uh as a
16:34passer where I think that he has pretty decent arm talent. It's nothing fantastic. I think he can throw the ball on the run. He's pretty dang accurate.
16:42He's aggressive. So, he's like ninth in PFS big time throw rate. He doesn't have crazy arm strength. I think that's average, maybe even teetering towards
16:51like maybe even below average like among like NFL starting uh calibers. So, I think that puts him like I think stylistically similar to Russell Wilson,
16:58but just does not have the same exact velocity on his throws. But, I do think we have a foundation here. I think it is
17:04worth noting out uh noting that he didn't play with Malik Neighbors last year. like the infrastructure around him, I would say was not.
17:10>> Yeah. And he might not again this year, but I'm hopefully the offensive line plays better. They added a firstrounder.
17:16Andrew Thomas gets back and actually like fully healthy to go. Uh that the infrastructure around him is a little bit better because if you're looking at
17:22the infrastructure versus his results, pretty good season for Jackson Dart.
17:28>> Infrastructure though, you're kind of talking about the players around him because I would say actually the the scheme that was created for him did
17:35accentuate a lot of his strengths. Do you agree?
17:37>> I agree. Yeah. I mean, Brian Dable just like did not care if he was going to be in the concussion 10 at all. Like, he
17:42had to go win those those games. And for fantasy purposes, like that was that was awesome. And he ended up being a low-end
17:47quarterback one uh down the stretch there. I just think that the the scheme uh passing wise and there was a lot of
17:54like drop passes from Theo Johnson, which now they have Isaiah Likely. Uh some drop balls from Darius Sllayton.
18:00Hopefully that's Malik Neighbors and Darnell Mooney. Hopefully can catch some more passes. and then the offensive line was really injured in the red area. They
18:07couldn't move. They didn't have anybody to win one-on-one situations. I don't think we're going to have that perfectly this year, but still the fact that
18:13Jackson Dar was able to escape and have like league average stats on like the advance metrics despite all that I think
18:19is pretty promising here.
18:21>> To me, what I love about him is that he has the same level of confidence in his teammates as he does in himself.
18:29>> Like he trusts his guys. He gives them a chance even if he shouldn't based on a lot of the things that you said. So, I
18:33think with better players, more plays will be made. Now, I also believe there's a question if he has better players around him this year. Definitely
18:42on the offensive line, like that matters a lot. And we'll get into the offensive line element in a little bit, but we
18:47need Malik Neighbors like a true number one to be on the field for a long stretch of the season and at his best
18:53because that makes a difference. And if not, you're kind of going in this roleplayerish range, which can be a bit high variance, and it doesn't really
19:02necessarily change and dictate what the defense is going to do. Uh, I agree with you that leading off with his mobility
19:11is the right way of doing this. And then that will buy him time uh to hopefully develop more as like your typical top
19:19tier quarterback passer or like above average quarterback passer. because to me I was a bit nervous of like how often his eyes dropped but
19:30in that area he did have the athleticism to avoid the pressure. There was a lot of movement in that to like again that's
19:39how he was able to kind of change the numbers in the secondary. One of his favorite plays this year was for the
19:46pass rush to get upfield him to climb up. There were these two sitting linebackers over the middle of the field. One or both would then converge
19:55on him so he doesn't scramble for eight tards and then he would just loft the ball over their heads and there would be
20:01like your inbreaker, your dig route, even if it was kind of an extended play, not necessarily in the structure of an
20:09offense. So you got a whole bunch of those kind of extended plays that on a weekly basis you wonder if they could,
20:16>> you know, repeat themselves week on week. he did. Then I do wonder if defenses are going to kind of change how
20:23they cover him a little bit more this season.
20:26>> Yeah. Yeah. I think that would be the the the bad outcome. I do think that he's just such a good athlete that I
20:31think that's just going to be the reality for Jackson Dart for like the next 5 to 10 years. Um and I I do think
20:36that he's he's an NFL starter and I have like no questions that the Giants are going to commit to him for a very long
20:40time. I thought like the the the floor here was was pretty solid. Uh, I think he's definitely on this Russell Wilson,
20:48Jaylen Herz, I'll throw out, you know, Bo Nicks type of spectrum here where you have a good athlete. There's some very
20:55clear things where if you're an offensive coordinator, you want to be gravitating towards and then hopefully Jackson Dar can get more familiar inside
21:02the pocket. I was looking at some of the splits. His red zone numbers were horrific and there was he had a fumble.
21:08He was trying trying to make too many plays out of structure. I think going back and watching all of them, there are
21:13some elements like he did not have a one-on-one guy and that's huge in uh the red area. And then also he had the worst
21:19splits against two high shells versus not. And I think both of those red zone, two high shells, the best quarterbacks, you got to have the right path
21:28instantaneously. Throw it on the money, know where you're going to be, very decisive, and then it's also helpful to have somebody that you can throw the
21:33ball to consistently. That's where he struggles. And there was just too many times the Saints won one of the worst reps by any quarterback. A dig route, I
21:41mean, wide open. The offensive line is doing their job. He's staring at the guy he should be throwing the ball to. Kind
21:46of breaks out from there, misses them, fumble. There's another play where a dig routes coming open, laid on it, then that turns to an interception. He does
21:54not have the best eyes right now. And that was some of the thing the concern of of playing in a Lane Keifin offense
22:01where things are a little bit more halffield ready. Now, the positive thing is with experience, that's the type of thing that hopefully can get better.
22:09Like all of a sudden, like an unathletic quarterback is just not going to become a great athlete. Where I do think
22:14there's maybe some more progression with Jackson Dart as he gets away from the air ready lean kein offense into a more
22:20structured hard ball under center play action offense, which he's not. This is not what he's used to at all. Um, but I
22:26do think three years from now, if you can just see the field a little bit better, the other tools are are locked
22:31and loaded. So, that's why I'm taking a pretty optimistic look here. We've talked about this often, but so frequently rushing and mobility at
22:39quarterback is linked to a player ceiling when it really should be linked to their floor. Because in this case, like you were talking about the floor
22:47being just his ability to buy himself not only time in a play, but in his career to learn more and become a viable
22:58passer from the pocket in the structure of everything because that is what translates year-over-year. It's fascinating that you mentioned Russell Wilson. I know you did on Twitter as
23:07well because that's an interesting comparison from the angle that you brought it up, but also because there was a period of time where everyone in,
23:15you know, the football cognizante said, "Let Russ Cook, give him the keys to the offense, run less, throw more, that's the highest EPA, that's where the big
23:24plays come from, all that type of stuff." But then when you listen to all the Seahawks that now maybe have podcasts from that era, uh, and also,
23:33you know, you talk to someone like Michael Shawn Dugar who does a fantastic job covering that team, >> Russell was able to have those late game
23:41moments because of the running game.
23:44Like you didn't have to rely on Russell Wilson to carry your offense on every single series because he wasn't going to
23:51stand there and read it out play after play. And on some level, the Giants are kind of using those same buzzwords this
23:58off seasonason a bit. Like reading between the lines, top 12 pick on an offensive lineman. They were in on all the big-time running backs according to
24:06Jordan Ranon. When you talk about Ken Walker to Travis ETN to hoping to draft Jeremiah Love even despite all that, you
24:13listen to Harbaugh and Matt Naggie and everyone saying quote, "We want to run the football." And then when we get into
24:19favorable situations, this is my conclusion from them. Then that's where you can get these, you know, moments of magic from him. Yep. You can ask Jackson
24:27Dart to like have a cool ass play three or four times a game versus asking him to do it 13 to 14 times.
24:36>> Correct.
24:36>> Per game. So yeah, to me he's more of like a see it, throw it kind of guy. And that's why again when I talked about
24:43having the rush converge and him using his athleticism to not just go north and south but also east and west and
24:48elonging elongating these plays that allows the coverage to get stretched out to the play to kind of break down and then he can and he makes some really
24:56cool decisions with that. Like he really does reset and like >> you know push past the ball and do all this flick of the wrist. But then it
25:02also goes into why he was to me such a bummer inside of the red zone because everything is so condensed in that area.
25:09that you really can't stretch everything out that it's much more difficult to elongate those snaps. And then that's when you kind of have to play on time in
25:16rhythm and everything of that sort. And uh that's where I'm going to look immediately in weeks one through three and see if that has progressed.
25:24>> Yeah. And usually when we're like he's not reading things out properly, usually that comes with and he had 14 interceptions and he was making all
25:31these brutal mistakes. he was just like turning things down, not like necessarily making a bunch of bad decisions like and just like forcing a
25:39bunch of passes that he had no business doing. So maybe that's like on the grand scheme of things a slight plus. I I
25:46think that he can be Bo Nicks and like that's the secondyear leap and then all of a sudden we're kind of talking about
25:52him a little bit differently. I think he's very clearly going to be an NFL starter. And I do think there's like a
25:56Jaylen Herz type of ceiling that you can kind of grow into. And I'm hoping that as he gets more experience, just saying
26:02just like we saw with Jaylen Herz over his Eagles career, then you know, three years into this, all of a sudden you
26:06have like, all right, the athletes awesome and he's at least can throw the ball down the football field and it's on
26:11the OC to kind of make things better and you have >> and the playmakers around him like it's kind of >> it it turns into like an environmental
26:17situation like do you have a future head coach that we really like as a play caller or is it one of these bums that
26:23gets fired after a year? Do you have Dvonte Smith and AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard >> and is your offensive line playing well
26:29as your running game doing it?
26:30>> Yes, I agree. Um, long story short for me, if I was redoing the NFL draft, he would be my first overall player from
26:37from last year. Interesting. So, >> um, I I think it's an awesome pick for the Giants, they should be very happy
26:41about where this thing was initially.
26:44And then I would say don't expect the craziest secondyear leap because we're going into a brand new offense. Like you said, under center play action, which I
26:51do think you can do. the Bow Knicks, roll them out, throw the ball down the football field. Same thing with Russell
26:55Wilson. Like we talked about here, he just hasn't done that a whole lot. So, I wouldn't be surprised if this season
27:01feels very similar to last season, maybe with a little bit less rushing. And then 2027 is the year where things all right,
27:06Malik Neighbors is healthy. I'm used to this offense and then we can kind of see the the upside case here. But a really
27:12good athlete, man. Like you could just cannot underell that part of this.
27:15>> There was one moment when he did play with Malik Neighbors. This play kind of stood out to me versus all the others.
27:20like again dropping his eyes. A three-level play where Malik Neighbors literally puts up a mailbox. He's on the deepest kind of corner route and it goes
27:30back to what we're saying that it didn't lead in an interception or a weward throw. He turned it down and instead in
27:36this case ran into a sack and other times, you know, it turned into a run of eight yards or a scramble laterally to
27:42buy more time and then everyone kind of plays backyard football and then you flip it for for a big game on top of
27:47that. So, I have no idea what Matt Naggie is going to bring to this approach. Uh, I would have been much
27:52more excited if it was Todd Monkin uh as his offensive coordinator, which was, you know, the the hope all around when
27:58Harbaugh was hired as coach. And obviously now he's the >> head coach for Shador Sanders, who we'll talk about here in a moment. At the very
28:03least, if he has three quality offensive linemen in front of him and they have really good blocking, then that again already gives you a platform for for
28:11success that you can even have more fun and your athleticism can shine even more from that, too.
28:17>> All right, agree.
28:19>> I'll still take Kam Ward, but we'll see.
28:20This will be a telling season. Okay, quarterback three and actually quarterback two in your drafts. That is Tyler Shuck of the New Orleans Saints.
28:27Uh we talked about him on a recent show, but we'll dive even deeper right now.
28:31quarterback 19, the seventh pick of the 10th round at this moment. By the way, you all can be drafting all these
28:38players and many, many others over on Underdog right now. Uh, use promo code the show, play five bucks, you get 50
28:44right at this moment. Uh, you've heard us talk about best baseball for years.
28:48All you do is draft. There's no waiverss, there's no trades, there's no setting lineup. So, it's the perfect time to do it right now and all summer
28:53long. So, uh, go download the dog app and do some drafting. Talk to me about Tyler Shuck and what you saw here after
28:59he took over in about week eight.
29:01>> Very competent football player here.
29:03Now, that comes with the territory being a 26-year-old. I I get it. But I see all the tools to be an NFL average starter.
29:11And I think that for the Saints, like you're looking at a complete bargain here, second rounder on a rookie cont uh
29:16contract. And uh all the additions that they made this off season, I think you felt that being the weaknesses of this
29:23offense the last year. I thought there was some reps where if it wasn't going to Chris Alavven, he was trying to go to
29:28the next tier of players. Those guys weren't coming open. Uh and then I also thought there was some pressure on the
29:34the interior offensive line. You bring in a veteran. Uh add Jordan Tyson. We liked Oscar Delp a little bit yards after the catch, a different type of
29:41player than Jawan. And I can see how this thing kind of comes together. I can tell that Kell Moore liked what he was
29:47seeing from Tyler Shuck. Uh Tyler Shuck plays a very conservative brand of football. he's willing to throw the ball over the middle, but if he doesn't like
29:55it, he's going to quickly get to his checkown and throw the ball underneath.
29:59Uh there was a little bit of antsiness to him, like he you can feel him just playing really fast. Sometimes that was
30:05a good thing because he can actually make make it through all all of his reads. And then I think other times you
30:09kind of feel some of the antsiness come into play. His numbers against pressure were pretty bad. But otherwise, I thought had a pretty quality season. And
30:17I think that this intermediate 5 to 15 kind of yard window, I thought Tyler Shucks showed a lot there. And while you
30:24didn't get to it a lot, there's some level of athleticism here. He surprised the Bucks a couple times. Uh zone read
30:30scrambling. I'm completely shocked. I'm sure Todd BS is still furious about it.
30:34Uh and then he can throw on the run a little bit here. So there's some warts to his game I think is going to prevent
30:39him from having a big time ceiling here.
30:42Is the pathway to him being, you know, hopefully Ryan Tanahill right there for the taking? I think that's absolutely a play.
30:48>> He's easily in the best situation and it's not just last season he was in the best situation. It's also this year.
30:53>> Uh you can clearly tell that Kell Moore has a vision of what he wants an offense to be. And you know, this goes back to
31:00his time with the Cowboys and the Chargers and the Eagles. We always talk about pace. We always talk about amount of plays. But you know, he had the
31:08answers here for Tyler Shuck. And you could argue he had the answers for Spencer Rattler as well. I think if you're talking about time to throw, they
31:14were two of the four quickest time to throws uh across the league. So again, that's the vision of who they are. But
31:21then how can you upscale that? How can you upgrade that? This year, you talked about it. They had some really nice
31:27designed open stuff, whether it was like a fake screen that leaked out or open extra protection or rub routes on these
31:34vertical routes. But then it goes to the personnel. Like you bring in David Edwards at left guard so you don't have
31:42instant losses at that spot to not spook your quarterback. You bring in Travis ETN to be the starting running back when
31:48you had to turn two late round guys last year. Jordan Tyson to be an outside ISO winner. Uh and then Oscar Delp as you
31:56said to be a real inline presence, but also athleticism after the catch that you can just flip it to on those time to
32:03throw routes. So like while I believe that the Saints offensive line because they still had, you know, two first rounders plus some other guys and then
32:11Chris Ave gave him a combo to have the most chances to play in timing and in the structure of the three guys we've
32:17already talked about already that can even be ramped up even more and lean into the things he does well this season. That that gives him a
32:26springboard to have like a really nice even second gear to it. Even if you would say like in a vacuum to use that
32:34phrase, maybe his traits and his play style don't necessarily give like a huge secondyear leap in comparison to Cam Ward and Jackson Dart, if that makes
32:43sense.
32:44>> Yeah, I think that his arm talent in general is just rock solid. I think his accuracy is fine. I will note that his
32:51uh catchable ball rate and success rate on 20 plus air yards was among the worst in the NFL. Uh his I think he can take
33:00some RPMs and layer throws pretty well and he can even make some throws on the run and then layer them. So I I like
33:05that part of his arm talent. I wouldn't say the ball is like completely being rifled in there all the time, but it
33:11passes every single level to throw the ball down the football field long term.
33:15So I think that the arm talent's fine.
33:16Like we said, the athleticism is fine. I just thought by rookie standards, uh, him throwing the ball over the middle as
33:23often as he did and like working all the way to the checkdown, I thought was was pretty dang impressive. Now, like,
33:28should we expect that from a 26-year-old? Sure. But, I mean, he was executing it. And I I think that there's a a built-in floor here with with Tyler
33:36Shuck. And if we are going to be throwing the ball over the middle and surprising uh players or the the defenders out there, that's kind of like
33:44what like Ryan Tanahill was doing out there. So, that's kind of what I'm hoping for where the Titans can kind of
33:48go on a run because Tan Hill's not overly expensive. They got Derrick Henry. They got competent offensive line play. We like the the head coach and
33:56then all of a sudden you can have like a pretty fun team even if you're not you're going to end up losing to, you
34:01know, the the freakazoid quarterbacks that are out there. So, I mean, >> but this level of quarterback in this system can be a top 15 guy, you know.
34:12>> Yeah, I agree. Oh, yeah. When when you are in the right system surrounded by the right people and your offensive line
34:18stays healthy and it protects you, then you can go on these runs of consistency of knowing where to go with the football
34:23and get it out of your hands that it makes your stats look incredible and it makes your play on the field look in
34:30time, in rhythm, and just successful drive to drive. And >> he's in a potential situation to do that. And that's really the first time
34:38I've said that with all three of these quarterbacks. And so that again that gives him a great platform here. And on
34:44top of that, just as soon as he was inserted in the starting lineup, you could tell he had an understanding of
34:49this offense and that he and Kellen are on the same page and what his strengths are and what his weaknesses are. Like
34:54pre- snap, he >> knows in terms of what the coverage he's looking at on the drop. He's hitting the checklist in terms of reading exactly
35:04which is my zone side, which is my man side. And then once he hits his drop, like the ball is out. And while it
35:10looked kind of boring at times and maybe not as many total peaks as we've talked about with Ward and and Dart,
35:17>> uh you could just hit the next play and hit the next play and hit the next play >> and it was just out out and what I loved
35:25was, you know, a ton of these out routes, these hinges, these curls, these comebacks, all types and the ball was just
35:32>> on time, >> on the moment, exactly where it needed to be. Now, on the opposite end, um I do still have questions about him under
35:41pressure because the sample size is pretty small. Again, the offensive line he played with last year, while it had some holes and they tried to patch that
35:47this year, he had 124 drop backs under pressure last year. 39 completions went under pressure. For example, that's the same number as Justin Fields, JJ
35:57McCarthy, Michael last season.
36:00>> Um and even his adjusted completion percentage under pressure last year is 28 in the NFL. Now, is it to the point
36:06like it was at Louisville when you had those highlight reel or low lightss where he would just like get rid of the
36:12football? No. Like he he showed a lot more strength in that situation and willingness to take shots in those situations. But then there were still
36:21moments like against the Rams for example where it was just a simple four-man rush and he just you could see the discomfort on his face and he popped
36:32it to Shahed in double coverage and it should have been an interception or against the Dolphins like it was a train
36:36wreck of a first half. They confused him. They got him second guessing. He was throwing into driving defenders.
36:42They were down 16 nothing I believe at one point and then even to close it out the interception the two-point attempt
36:47to tie it deep into the fourth quarter.
36:49So, while you can tell that he and Kell Moore have answers and he knows what his answers are be and they have a really
36:55good plan heading into these, I do have some concerns of if he goes in these contests and he is surprised, not just
37:02for series but entire games, then I'm not sure if he has like just the tools right now or the ability right now as a
37:1027year-old quarterback soon to be to then like flip that switch and like put the team on his back.
37:15>> I see it the same exact way. just the internal clock feels very fast and then he can feel a little bit antsy. Uh his
37:21pressure to sack ratio on top of those other metrics was second worst in the NFL is only uh better than Gino Smith
37:27last year. So not only was he not not completing passes, he was just like straight up taking too many sacks on top
37:33of that. This was like the thing that we had more concerns with on his Louisville tape. I will say this, he is tough. Like
37:40I think in Louisville you can be like is he tough enough to hang in the NFL?
37:43there was a plenty of reps where he was taking big shots and delivering it. It was just that he would play kind of
37:49quick and then he'd have some bad decisions there. So, I I saw him playing more too quick rather than like being
37:54fooled. Uh and I I do wonder if like you said ultimately the trades are going to be a tier below where it needs to be to
38:04like really really take off here. But that said, I just think that he does a lot of the the more difficult things as
38:10a rookie quarterback. I think he does that at a pretty nice level. So, I think the Saints right now, they would have to
38:16take like a top 10 pick to to pry pry them away from Tyler Shuck. I think we're re reddrafting. I think he's
38:21easily going well into the first half of of round one and they got him uh what 41st overall or whatever it was. Yeah,
38:29he looks like a 27y old quarterback and like by that I mean he frequently guys on their second contract kind of look
38:36the comfort level that he has right now in terms of >> uh playing out the scheme of of an offense. Um and for him it's the same
38:44same number of positives.
38:46>> Um I I mentioned with Cam Ward and I should have said this with Jackson Dart as well, the motioning and shifting
38:52percentage. oftentimes that's, you know, coaches being scared of putting too much on the plate of a rookie quarterback. So like Dart, uh, he was 32nd last year
39:02with 46% of motion shift plays. Cam Ward 28th, 54%. Uh, Tyler Shuck in the Saints team, sixth most, 70% of snaps. So that
39:13shows again not just a confidence in this is the scheme we're running and I'm gonna get my guys prepared, but also
39:19Tyler Shuck to, you know, get to the line of scrimmage in time and command a huddle enough and uh get people in the
39:25right positions for for all of that to unfold. So like if Jordan Tyson hits as a top 15 pick that he is, if Oscar
39:32Delpch flashes athleticism, if David Edwards is a quality left guard signing, and then if Travis Achan can step in there and be a reliable runner, then
39:43you're already like using last season as almost the floor and then hoping that this becomes even better. And I think that's why that the Saints are becoming
39:52such a uh invogue pick as >> people Cinderella team of the season.
39:57Yep. I see it the same exact way. Do you think there's like a little like Daniel Jones to this all? I think Daniel Jones
40:03a little bit better of an athlete, but I think but you can build a decent offense around Daniel Jones and uh I think that
40:10a quality coach can kind of get the most out of Daniel Jones. I can see Chuck kind of falling into that category.
40:15>> Okay. I wanted to ask you this question.
40:17Um since this is a fantasy program, which of these ADPs do you like the most? Do any of them do you like the
40:26least? Are you drafting all of them with confidence? I understand stacking and all that type of stuff. Uh because we just talked about discussing ADPs and
40:33the markets would tell you that round 10 is pretty rich here for Tyler Shuck uh just in terms of his projected
40:40touchdowns this year and the Saints overall. But again, we know that uh multiple teams every single year throw their projections in uh the markets
40:48faces out there and uh overperform.
40:50Let's say >> I think the Saints I think they're 22nd in projected points. that feels too low.
40:54Tyler Shuck on underdog right now, he's projected for just 19 and a half passing touchdowns. I like taking the higher there. The ADP gets me a little bit more
41:02nervous just because he's surrounded by guys that can like run around a lot. So like Malik Willis goes in the next
41:07round. Kyler Murray would be my favorite in this round. I think that Kyler Murray is going to like easily win that job
41:12with the Vikings. You get the Kevin Oonnell infrastructure plus Kyler Murray's like a legit threat rushing where Tyler Shuck, you know, he was uh
41:20what was it? quarterback 23, quarterback 25 in in rushing yards this last season.
41:24I don't expect that to kind of take over. So, I I think we appreciate what Tyler Shuck is. I think this ADP feels
41:30like a round or two too heavy. I would definitely have him over Cam Ward in fantasy though, like for this upcoming
41:36season. And that's how the markets are.
41:38I just think, you know, >> going up one round and, you know, getting Brock Perie or Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, I would rather just pay
41:45the premium slightly to go up ahead.
41:47Jack Miller posted about this today that quarterback 1880p by year on underdog.
41:52Uh if you go back to you know 2020 that was at 150. It was around that 135 to 150 range over the first four years five
42:00years excuse me. Then if you go to 2025 that was at 129 overall. Again this is for quarterback 18. So your mid-round
42:07quarterback you're again >> stacking them all together. But now your quarterback 18 is going as 110 overall.
42:15Now you compare that to the elite quarterbacks, the early round quarterbacks are kind of going later than ever, too.
42:23>> So that makes me not want to attack this quarterback 18ish range, but instead go up and get one of those elite guys
42:32because we're getting a discount versus what we did last year. And we've talked about it mainly because uh the athletic ones got injured last year.
42:39>> Yes. And that could change instantaneously. I view it the same way.
42:41I will say this, the quarterback 15 to quarterback 25 on underdog has always been too cheap. Every single year I do
42:48fantasy points over replacement and that's a good way to compare things across uh positions using underdog half PPPR scoring. And every single year the
42:57quarterbacks, they rank way higher in that m metric than their ADP. And this is the first year where I can look at
43:04the ADP and then look at fancy points of replacement and everything almost looks identical. The running backs are up, the quarterbacks are up, the wide receivers
43:12are down, and there's like a legit separation across the tight end landscape. I think that Tyler Shuck should be kind of going in this range.
43:20And if he was being priced at at quarterback or like the round 16 range, that would have just been like old
43:25school fantasy where that was just like straight up wrong.
43:28>> Now, the other part of this too is once you get to round 10, you don't really want to take the other position guys.
43:32And so that will, you know, push up >> the quarterbacks 18 through 25, as you're saying, because it's much easier to click those names versus some of the
43:40wide receivers and running backs.
43:42>> Yeah, that's the bad rookie class from this last year. You know, typically there's a bunch of exciting wide receivers and then this year less so.
43:47>> Okay, we'll close with one more quarterback. This is Shador Sanders of the Cleveland Browns. Uh, I'm expecting to get starts this year, not necessarily
43:55because of what he showed during his rookie season, but just because that quarterback room is Deshun Watson and Shador Sanders at this point. Uh,
44:04somehow he continues to just be a lightning rod of a topic. Uh, and now it's your turn to add more fuel to that
44:09fire, Hayden.
44:10>> I don't think Shidor Sanders could play at an NFL starting level. I think that he has a chance to be a career backup.
44:16There's not a statistical argument for him. 37th out of 37 qualifiers in EPA uh per drop back, 36 in success rate. I
44:24think the athletic traits are pretty underwhelming. More backup tier than starting tier. He maybe evaded more tackles than I was expecting. Uh but it
44:32takes a while for him to kind of get up to the top speed. And that's just kind of what a backup quarterback looks like
44:38versus the freakazoid quarterbacks we have in the modern NFL. And then I think that his accuracy I think is good if
44:46like for example he's in the Pro Bowl.
44:47um by mistake and then he's like throwing the ball at a target. Uh I think he's accurate then. The way he
44:53plays now where he's just kind of like wandering around the pocket and out of time then I think the accuracy is like
44:59actually not good and it was surprising.
45:01He had the lowest catchable ball rate uh when once he removed screens. He had the highest interceptable ball rate uh once
45:08you remove screens as well. Pretty tough combo. So I think when we go back to the college profile is like he's super
45:14accurate. I don't know if I can say he's actually super accurate. It might be one of his better traits, but by NFL
45:20starting standards, I would not say that he's accurate. And then I would also just mention there's just way too many negatives. I think everyone kind of
45:26understands that at this point while the coach is like actively trying to hide him. So I think that Deshun Watson's going to run away with this job. And I
45:35think that there's a lot more traits upside traits with Deshun Watson that Shador doesn't have. So maybe by the end of the season everything goes bust and
45:41we see him again. But I think very clearly a backup if he can kind of hold on to that >> if and when he does get on the field.
45:48The number one thing that I'm looking for that will set him up for potential future success is he can't bail out of
45:56the pocket anymore. Like you you can't go in reverse. He has to climb. There were some promising moments not just in
46:03college but in the NFL when he did put his back foot and drive on it and then climb the pocket and then those were his
46:09best moments. But again, that offensive line at Colorado retreated a whole bunch, then he gets to Cleveland continues to retreat and that just
46:19compounds the negative plays on top of it. So, I am with you. I believe the future with Shador Sanders is as a
46:27backup quarterback out there. And like there aren't 32 backup quarterbacks out there, but let's be real. Like, he from talent should be one of the 64 best
46:37quarterbacks in the NFL. What adds on to this though is everything that comes with the Chador Sanders experience, his father, his brother, uh the let's say
46:48the media opportunity and involvement that Todd Monkin is going to be asked about every single time that Shore Sanders uh is a backup quarterback and
46:57Deshun Watson has a bad start out there, the first question in the press conference is going to be, well, is Shador going to be the starter next
47:03week? And that just, you know, is a bit of a drag at times on on the entire franchise. But just when focusing on
47:10him, I believe he's one of the 64 best quarterbacks in the league. He has some areas that he has success. He has some
47:16areas where he wins. But the number one thing that he has to work on to take the next step in just who he is as a player
47:23is because he's going to hold on the football too long. And it does kind of take his I think release and wind up a
47:30bit too long is he has to have more compact movements and to go forward and not to go in reverse.
47:38>> Yeah, I think it got better than where it was at at Colorado this last year.
47:42And like you said, his best moments were actually him stepping up into the pocket and he actually can layer some throws
47:47in. I think that's where his accuracy comes in when he's like throwing almost a change up to the sideline or somebody
47:51kind of sneaking in around. That's where you're going to get the best plays from Shador Sanders. And there's no question like that is his best trait. His best
47:58rep of the season was a free runner. He was responsible. He rolls out to his right and throws the ball down the
48:04football field. And I think that these kind of out of structure moments throwing it with a little bit of pace. I
48:09do think like he has like the the top 64 talent that you're talking about there.
48:12Now, like you get a couple of those reps per game, like the rest of it has to be at a normal level and he has some some
48:19work cut out for him there. Um, do you want to give credit like this off seasonason been extremely quiet like so
48:25far so like that's that's really good for for >> his brothers made the most noise compared to him.
48:29>> Yes. And you know what like his brothers is his own person like Sudor Sanders you can only grade him by the Sudor Sanders
48:34stuff >> and he's better than Dylan Gabriel you know and Dylan Gabriel was drafted ahead of him >> the Dylan Gabriel stuff like he's would
48:41qualify for the show. We agreed we're not even going to get to the Dylan Gabriel stuff. Uh, I will say Shador and
48:46Dylan Gabriel over overlapped on the chart a lot when I was like going through some of the filters. Uh, but just in terms of talent, like you're
48:53talking about two totally different guys there. He's one of these guys as he gets more reps, I think that his, you know,
49:00his plan initially will get a little bit better. His comfort uh, comfortability throwing the ball over the middle will get a little bit better. He's always
49:06wanted to throw the ball over the middle. I think that there's like varying degrees of success with that so far. But I think that's how he becomes a
49:13stable backup quarterback. Um, and I I just think that the Browns are probably looking at this like Deshun Watson's overall talent is just way more obvious
49:23to us. So, we'll at least see if his Achilles is on straight and give him all the reps this off seasonason and I think
49:29well into the season. So, I'm not expecting a whole lot from Shador Sanders, but um he's definitely better.
49:34>> He's definitely better than a fifth rounder. You know, definitely better than a fifth rounder.
49:38>> Okay, that's going to do it. Again, the most fascinating part to me is three quarterbacks that we talked about in the
49:45show last year were going in the top 14 and then just one is going in the top 14 of this year. And uh there going to be
49:52obvious areas of hey can strengths get stronger of these guys and can some weaknesses get to league average or even some cases can weaknesses turn into
50:02strengths. And if that's the case then you know the first two names that we talked about with Cam Warden Jackson Dart you will see like exponential
50:10>> success and production compared to what they did their rookie season.
50:13>> And if we get three starting quarterbacks from this last class where everyone said it's just such a bad class like that's a win. I think that in
50:19general the gap between Ward, Dart, and Shuck has completely narrowed and I think all three of these guys have a pathway they just have to make up for
50:26for their warts. But three quarterbacks starting by the end of the rookie season versus the expectations that we had. I would say if we got one starting
50:33quarterback from last year's class, that would be a win. I think we're on pace to having two or three of them.
50:38>> That's going to do it. Again, this week we're going to talk about secondyear breakouts at every position. So, running backs, tight ends, wide receivers. So,
50:45uh lock into the channel. This is really what a massive part of your fantasy draft is all about. So, you want to
50:51learn about figure out who these players are, what's now surrounding them, and where they're going to go in their second year. So, shout out to Weaves and
50:59Mosho behind the scenes. All of you for watching. Up the bell. We'll talk to you guys next time. See you.