PodcastFrom NFL: The Insiders

Brett Kollmann and Trevor Sikkema UNLEASH reactions to ALL Sunday's Week 2 action

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 22 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 21, 2026

Published

Mon, September 21, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Kenneth Walker IIIBo NixMatthew StaffordPatrick MahomesTrevor LawrenceCaleb WilliamsCam WardCarnell TateDaniel BellingerDrake MayeJa'Marr ChaseJacoby BrissettJalen HurtsJayden Daniels

Player analysis

Player insights

Bo Nix

NegativeBust24:06

Bo Nix struggled against the Chiefs' pressure-heavy man coverage in Week 1, leading to 'panic plays' and poor efficiency. He averaged roughly three yards per attempt against man coverage, as the Chiefs' defensive scheme successfully sped up his internal clock.

Insight page

NegativeUsage113:31

Bo Nix struggled against man coverage versus the Chiefs, though he may theoretically fare better against the Jaguars' zone-heavy defensive scheme.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection107:16

Caleb Williams is viewed favorably following a strong Week 1 performance where the Bears offense and ground game looked incredible.

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Cam Ward

NegativeProjection28:54

Cam Ward struggled in his debut, completing under 60% of his passes for 140 yards with a QB rating of 80. The source notes he appeared hesitant and inconsistent, struggling to play 'free' within the Titans' offensive scheme.

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Carnell Tate

NegativeDepth Chart28:54

The Titans drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall to be a vertical threat, but the source argues this was 'putting the cart before the horse' given the team's significant offensive line deficiencies.

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Daniel Bellinger

NegativeUsage30:40

Daniel Bellinger played only 14 snaps for the Titans in Week 1, failing to provide the necessary blocking presence to help the team's struggling offensive line.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection124:00

Drake Maye had the worst game of his career in Week 1, struggling with decision-making and trying to do too much when the team was already leading.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveUsage110:24

Trevor Sikkema expects Ja'Marr Chase to be more involved in the offense moving forward after a limited 12-receiving-yard performance in Week 1.

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Jacoby Brissett

NegativeUsage116:59

Jacoby Brissett relied heavily on quick throws and shotgun formations against the Chargers, ranking second in quick throw percentage behind Joe Burrow.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveUsage27:44

Jalen Hurts was forced into 'hard mode' due to offensive line struggles, relying on his legs to bail out the offense. He recorded five scrambles for 48 yards (9.6 YPC) in Week 1, his highest scramble total since Week 1 of last year, including a critical third-and-18 conversion.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeUsage33:00

Jayden Daniels struggled with hesitancy behind a poor Commanders offensive line, holding the ball for an average of 3.41 seconds. He missed opportunities to scramble for green grass, indicating a lack of trust in the game as it developed.

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Jaylen Waddle

NegativeUsage21:40

Jalen Waddle was utilized primarily as a decoy by the Broncos in Week 1 to manipulate the Chiefs' defensive coverage. While he didn't receive high volume, his presence in orbit motion and out of the backfield was a key tactical element in creating opportunities for teammates.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection52:38

The source considers Josh Allen one of the few quarterbacks on earth capable of putting up massive points against a quality defense like Houston's, citing his 'arm arrogance' and ability to make insane throws.

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Justice Hill

PositiveUsage33:41

Justice Hill was used as a key piece in the Ravens' formation manipulation, lining up out wide to force the Colts into revealing their zone coverage, which directly contributed to a 54-yard touchdown play.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage2:13

Kenneth Walker III is highlighted for his explosive playmaking ability, specifically noting a 60-yard run in Week 1 that underscores his value despite the broader narrative of running back devaluation.

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PositiveUsage20:58

Kenneth Walker is a transformative backfield presence for the Chiefs, providing individual value through his ability to force missed tackles and gain yards after contact. He led all players in Week 1 with 14 missed tackles and 114 missed-tackle yards, proving he can elevate the offense independently of the offensive line.

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NegativeUsage119:06

The Seahawks' run game efficiency and explosiveness have dipped in the absence of Kenneth Walker.

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Kenyon Sadiq

PositiveUsage55:19

Kenyon Sadiq is noted for his speed (4.4) and his usage in the backfield, where he received a carry in Week 1. The source expects to see more of this usage in future weeks.

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Malachi Fields

PositiveUsage48:29

Malachi Fields is praised for his physical run blocking, with the source noting he was 'burying people' and showing 'dad strength' in his Week 1 performance.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveUsage32:26

Mark Andrews benefited from the Ravens' effective use of formations and motion, specifically on a first-down catch that exploited the Colts' defensive alignment.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection39:18

Matthew Stafford had a disastrous Week 1 against San Francisco, posting a -0.52 EPA per play, his worst single-game mark since 2016.

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PositiveProjection130:35

Despite a poor Week 1, Matthew Stafford is expected to bounce back, with the Rams' offense possessing significant talent including Puka Nacua and a strong run game.

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Mike Evans

PositiveMatchup47:02

Mike Evans is described as a 'man coverage neutralizer' who dominated from the slot in Week 1. The source notes that the defense had no answers for him regardless of who was covering him in man-to-man situations.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveUsage8:11

Patrick Mahomes demonstrated his dual-threat capability in Week 1, scoring a 15-yard rushing touchdown nine months removed from ACL surgery.

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NegativeUsage122:13

Patrick Mahomes did not complete a single pass beyond 10 air yards in Week 1, yet the Chiefs' offense remains highly effective.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeUsage27:23

Saquon Barkley struggled to find efficiency in Week 1, recording 14 carries for 41 yards outside of one long run. His production was heavily reliant on yards after contact due to poor offensive line play.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection10:09

Trevor Lawrence displayed elite confidence and decision-making in Week 1, executing high-difficulty throws into tight windows despite heavy defensive attention. The source notes his ability to identify throwing windows and his aggressive, high-upside play style.

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PositiveProjection114:05

Trevor Lawrence is considered an early MVP candidate after an unassailable performance in Week 1, outplaying Bo Nix.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

830

0:00Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.

0:06The league's newest podcast, the NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.

0:10It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players too.

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0:22Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.

0:26Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you can find out.

0:31You get your podcasts. You get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Mike Yam.

0:35And I'm Trevor Sikkema. And together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show.

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1:02Welcome to the NFL: The Insiders and thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:09Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.

1:11Two-point conversion to tie the game with 101 to go.

1:14The Eagles did not care about the Commander's run game at all.

1:18They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.

1:21And the Eagles stop them! When you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?

1:27The offensive line. Man. My goodness, Will McDonald, Barry and Cam Ward.

1:31I think running backs have been devalued, erroneously even.

1:33Erroneous on all accounts. On every account! 60-yard run by Ken Walker III!

1:37It's time for Week 2. We're gonna tackle all the game previews you guys have been begging us to get to for

1:44days on end, which is good, because now at least somebody's gonna be tackling something.

1:49Rushy Rice! Breaking tackles on the near side! Touchdown!

1:51We're sitting here talking about, oh, abolish the preseason.

1:54Preseason games don't matter. Let's just cancel the preseason and go straight to the regular season.

1:59The lack of execution. The lack of physical football.

2:02The lack of good teams that were ready to play in Week 1 and fell flat.

2:07Dude, I think that tells us the exact opposite.

2:09The missed tackle rate was the highest that it has been in seven years.

2:1414.8% missed tackle rate across the NFL in Week 1.

2:17That shows me that we didn't play enough football in August.

2:20That these guys weren't exactly ready for the physicality of the regular season.

2:24And man, it was eye-opening to watch, especially in that Monday night football game with the Broncos.

2:29And, you know, practice habits have changed. And we used to have two-a-days back in the day.

2:34I'm not advocating for going back to two-a-days, you know, in like a hundred degree heat.

2:39Back in my day! But like, guys did tackle better in September.

2:43At least it felt like it. So I don't know what the solution is here.

2:47I'm sure there's a way to fix this issue.

2:50I don't know what it is yet. I am not an elite football coach.

2:55But clearly, like, tackling donuts aren't cutting it right now.

2:58The way that you get better at playing football is by playing football.

3:02And there's a physical part of it that goes into it.

3:05And we're going to tackle a lot of league trends as the year goes on.

3:09But honestly, this is the biggest league trend after Week 1, in my opinion.

3:14Is just the sheer number of teams that weren't ready for the physical demands of playing a regular season football game.

3:20I've got some more NGS stats here for the people.

3:2361 explosive plays after missed tackles allowed in Week 1.

3:26Last year was 36. 36 to 61? That is a league trend.

3:30That is something that I am very, very curious to see what the numbers look like Week 2 versus Week 1, right?

3:37I mean, are these coaches just absolutely getting into these players?

3:40Are these players like, okay, I thought I knew what it was going to take to perform the way that I know

3:47I can perform in Week 1, and it clearly was not there.

3:50How quickly can we solve this? Is it a flip of the switch?

3:54Is it going to take a little bit of time because these guys didn't play nearly as much as the preseason?

4:01So, another number. 17.7% of all scrimmage yards in Week 1 came after a missed tackle.

4:06That's the highest share of any opening week since 2018.

4:09So again, we're breaking records. This is a trend in the worst way, and I just think that, man, the missed tackle

4:15stuff, it was an epidemic in Week 1. And it feels like it's such a simple thing, right?

4:21Like, this whole game, this entire sport is just blocking and tackling.

4:25It's one of the oldest platitudes in football. It's just blocking and tackling.

4:28And if you can't do half of that, then what are you as a defense?

4:33Like, it was just disgusting. Every defensive coach on planet Earth hated watching football this week.

4:38And that's probably a good segue, by the way, to talk about Broncos-Jags because these two teams are coming in from complete opposite experiences in Week 1.

4:46And of all the teams that couldn't tackle in Week 1, Denver was by far the worst.

4:51Nine months after ACL surgery, Patrick Mahomes runs it in from 15 yards out!

4:56Yeah, historically bad rate here for the Denver Broncos.

4:58And I remember we were texting in the show group chat, and you and I were kind of like, wow, like 23% missed tackle rate.

5:06And we were kind of pointing that out to each other because we said, there's no way it goes up, right?

5:12And the fourth quarter happened. Dude, that was when it was like 22%, 23%.

5:17And I could see the tweets now. The tweets would have been at one point, the Broncos were missing 22% or 23%

5:23of a tackle rate throughout the game. No, it got worse.

5:27It absolutely did not get better. The Broncos had a 29.8% missed tackle rate against the Kansas City Chiefs.

5:33248 missed tackle yards allowed. That rate was the highest in the league in a single game since Week 3 of 2023

5:39when the Broncos also had a 29.9% missed tackle rate.

5:42Not ideal. And that was the most such yards given up from missed tackles since 2018.

5:47Travis Kelsey inside the 20, down to the five.

5:50So yeah, I mean, it was terrible. And you mentioned as a good segue going into this game because the Jags offense, man, it looked fast.

5:58It looked confident. Liam Cohen had these boys ready.

6:01They put their foot on the gas pedal and they did not let up until, you know, you got well into the fourth quarter of that game.

6:09Okay, let's break down the absurdity of this Trevor Lawrence touchdown here.

6:13So we're setting things up and we see that we've got one running back in the backfield.

6:18We've got two tight ends on the line of scrimmage.

6:21So we have 12 personnel total. That's what we're talking about here.

6:24So 12 personnel here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And when you look at things from the defensive side of things, it looks like could be cover one.

6:33You've got one single high safety right here. And you've got a handful of these defenders that are sort of right in

6:39front of where these receiving options would be. But when we start this play, we'll motion this wide receiver in.

6:45Once we get to a condensed set, yes, this defender did travel with this wide receiver, but then he backed up.

6:52He didn't get into a press coverage look. So it tells you, okay, we're more likely looking at cover three here and not a cover one set.

7:00Now it's in the red zone. So everything kind of plays like man eventually because anytime a guy gets in a zone,

7:07you're probably playing him in some sort of man principle.

7:10So, you know, you're going to get some sort of man coverage type of look somewhere.

7:15And you do get that on this side of the field right here, but it just does not matter to Trevor Lawrence.

7:21Okay, here's a little quick play action. And he already knows where he is going to go with the ball, which is

7:28absolutely absurd because there's no separation here from the wide receiver.

7:32The safety was already creeping in this direction. You have this zone defender, this zone defender, and yet Trevor Lawrence goes, nope, right here.

7:39I see the throwing window. I'm absolutely making this happen.

7:42And I want you guys to remember, this is the first quarter.

7:46They're only up seven nothing. It's not like this game is 30 to nothing and it's way out of hand and Trevor

7:52Lawrence just says to himself, no, I don't care.

7:55This doesn't really matter. He's going for this absurd throw because at the beginning of the game, there was a sound bite from him.

8:02And he said, hey, we should not feel pressure at all in this game.

8:07We should be the ones applying the pressure. We shouldn't feel on our heels at all.

8:11This is the definition of that. Look how he rips this throw in there.

8:16That is absolutely absurd to not just see that potential throwing window, but actually have the guts to throw the ball and then the talent to complete it.

8:24Unbelievable stuff. And, you know, we had to give you another angle because here at NFL Pro, you know, yeah, we got

8:31flex that we've got all the angles that we could show you guys.

8:35This is the perfect angle here when you get to see all of these defenders.

8:40So I'm going to let this play start a little bit here.

8:43You're going to see the quick play action from him.

8:46And then right when Lawrence sets up, this is his point of view here.

8:51This wide receiver is barely. I mean, he's barely open right now.

8:54You can anticipate. Hey, he's got the break. He's got the inside leverage.

8:58He's going to have a little bit of room, but this safety is looking at him the entire time.

9:04This underneath defender could absolutely get in the throwing window depending on where Lawrence releases this ball.

9:09That zone defender could be a factor here as well.

9:12And the fact of the matter is it just simply did not matter.

9:16Look at where that ball is. You cannot see the wide receiver.

9:20You can only see four Cleveland Brown defenders. You could see the football and that wide receiver is totally behind the coverage.

9:27Again, this is Trevor Lawrence's point of view here.

9:29It's an unbelievable throw. And to be honest with you, we are all this guy.

9:34We are all this guy right here after watching the absurdity of that passing touchdown for Trevor Lawrence.

9:39The good news for Denver is that the Jags offense is like the polar opposite of what Kansas City did to them in week one.

9:47If you're looking at yak percentage, right? It's the total number of passing yards or total percentage of passing yards that was after the catch.

9:55Kansas City easily, you know, and obviously number one across league in week one.

9:59The Jags were the lowest. They were very much a downfield passing game, like no yards after catch required there.

10:05They were getting them all through the air. And so I'm curious to see if that's actually a better matchup for Denver,

10:12because if they did one thing, well, it was not really allowing Kansas City to even go vertical.

10:17They tried one time and it resulted in a miscommunication and interception by my homes that wasn't really on my homes.

10:24But maybe that's the saving grace for Denver here is that they're not really going up against a team like even last

10:30year that was good at yards after catch. Jacksonville had the sixth lowest yak percentage in all of 2025.

10:36So this wasn't just like a one week thing.

10:39But even then, I don't know how any Broncos fan can look at what happened in week one and feel any sort of confidence right now.

10:47Like that was just ugly. Yeah, it's I mean, it has to be night and day.

10:52I don't really think there's any way around it.

10:54There's no like, all right, well, if we tweak this little thing here and there, I think that will be OK.

11:01I mean, it just has to look completely different.

11:04I am very curious to see if the Jags can sort of change it up a little bit here, right?

11:10Like, do they throw the ball a little bit shorter?

11:13Do they lean on yards after catch a little bit more?

11:16Because I think if there's been a critique of Trevor Lawrence that the highs have been phenomenal for him when they've been there.

11:23But can he within a game change himself or change what they want to do?

11:28And I think Cohen's a great coach and he's going to be able to sort of have that at his disposal.

11:34But can Trevor execute? Can you go from one game plan one week to something maybe completely different to try to take

11:41advantage of the weaknesses of a defense out there?

11:44And also, you know, the Broncos defense does play different structurally than the one they faced against Cleveland.

11:49About 70% of every single coverage call by the Browns last week was either cover three or cover one.

11:55And the majority of those were cover three. It kind of looks, you know, earmuffs, Jacks fans kind of look like a Gus Bradley defense a little bit.

12:03A lot of cover three. And whenever it was cover three, they just tore apart the linebackers.

12:09When it was cover one, they tore apart the corners like nobody could cover in man in this game.

12:14It was it was really disgusting. But Trevor was so dialed in against these single high structures and it just felt like Cleveland didn't have an answer.

12:23I'm really interested to see if Denver kind of leans more into that.

12:27Not even cover two more like quarter quarter half kind of lifestyle here, you know, take away that deep ball down the boundary.

12:34And then you have Sertan backside just being Pat Sertan again structurally a little bit of a different defense here for Jacksonville.

12:40That's why this matchup fascinates me so much is because it's such a slingshot between styles that they're facing from week one to week two.

12:48And, you know, to kind of mix metaphors here styles make fights in the NFL for sure.

12:53Yeah, I do want to touch on the other side of things when the Broncos offense goes up against the Jags defense

13:00because I went back and I watched all of Jalen Waddle's snaps and routes from this game.

13:05And I was like, okay, what happened here? Like, could they just not get him the ball?

13:10Were they really honed in on him? Honestly, Brett, my number one takeaway was just Steve Spagnuolo masterclass genuinely a masterclass from

13:17the defensive coordinator because I noticed early on that the Broncos wanted to use Jalen Waddle as a decoy to get a lot of other people open.

13:25They wanted to see how the Kansas City Chiefs defense was going to focus in on him.

13:30The very first play was orbit motion with Jalen Waddle.

13:33It's like, okay, let's see. How are they going to adjust?

13:37How are they going to focus on him? Obviously, the touchdown that they had at the front pylon, that was also from

13:43a Jalen Waddle out of the backfield type of route, which by the way, anybody who watched NFL Pro, you watched that happen live.

13:51You saw Jalen Waddle out of the backfield and even though he didn't get the ball, his presence out of the backfield

13:57is a big reason why that was a touchdown.

14:00So that's why I watch the show, people. Make sure you subscribe.

14:04But when I watched him be like this decoy, the Chiefs just had the perfect defense for it.

14:09They played so much two deep and three deep coverage in this game.

14:13They said, okay, sure. You want to throw it deep?

14:16We got the numbers for it. We got the bodies for it.

14:20And if you want to throw it underneath, because that's sort of the give and take, right?

14:25All right. We're going to put more bodies in the deep portion of the field.

14:30Well, that means there's less to cover the underneath.

14:33That means that you're probably going to give up throws and completions underneath, which then requires what?

14:38Rallying and tackling. Okay. 8.7% missed tackle percentage as a team, despite the fact that Bo Nix had 20 passes of 10 or less air yards.

14:46LeJarius Sneed, he is back. He's the perfect player for this defense.

14:49He had four solo stops himself. I watched Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton rally to the ball and be so reliable.

14:56These underneath zone defenders were so ready to do their job when those short passes ended up coming.

15:01Okay. You can't hit anything deep. Sure. The underneath stuff is open, but it's not going anywhere.

15:06Now, all of a sudden, the Chiefs are up 10.

15:09Now, all of a sudden, the Chiefs are up three scores.

15:13Now, what do we do? Now, we've got to force it, and that's, I think, why you see the Bo Nix panic plays.

15:20Intercepted by the rookie, Delane. Real quick, I think the question that Jags fans have is, do the Jags and Anthony Campanelli

15:27have this recipe to sort of do the same thing and frustrate Knicks the same way?

15:31I mean, that was their calling card last year, right?

15:34Campanelli, he has both a Vic Fangio heritage and a Jeff Halfley heritage kind of mixed together.

15:40And I think if you're looking at the specific matchup between the Broncos and Campanelli's defense in Jacksonville, they're probably going to

15:46see a lot of the same stuff this week that they saw last week, specifically with we're going to build that umbrella

15:53over the top, rally and tackle on anything underneath.

15:56We're going to try to use rotations. We're going to try to use disguise, anything to slow down his clock so that

16:03our great pass rushers can get there. The one key difference, and this is what I'm really fascinated by, if you're looking

16:09at the changeup that Spags had in week one, it wasn't just that aggressive man coverage, it was man coverage paired with pressure.

16:1650% of all the Chiefs' man coverage calls had six plus rushers attached to it.

16:21It wasn't just, we're rushing five, we're rushing six with man coverage.

16:25And when you have receivers, not getting attacked, but let's say scuffed up a little bit.

16:29You play a little physical. A little physical? You can't kill him just out of the yards for free.

16:35Ain't nobody gets anything for free I work for in this league.

16:39Was it a penalty? Who's going to say? Didn't get called, not a penalty.

16:43I will say though, with those tight windows from man coverage paired with pressure and it sped up Nix's clock so much,

16:50and Nix with a sped up clock isn't necessarily going to be able to make the tight window throws that are required to beat tight man coverage.

16:58And we saw that over and over and over in this game.

17:02At one point in the fourth quarter, he was averaging like three yards per attempt against man.

17:07And that was largely because those man coverages were paired with pressure.

17:11Campanelli doesn't really do that in Jacksonville. Like not only do they not call a lot of man, they also don't call

17:17a lot of six man pressures with man coverage.

17:20So that's part of the reason why I'm so interested in this matchup is a lot of the stuff that really tore Denver to pieces last week.

17:28The Jags don't necessarily do it on either side of the ball.

17:32That ball is caught! The fourth touchdown pass of the day for Trevor Lawrence!

17:36How good is that? So let's stay with the Chiefs because the Chiefs also play the Colts, and we want to talk about this game here.

17:44Specifically the Colts defensive side of things. It's something that I'm worried about here, Brett, because I think that they're trying to play a defense.

17:52I think Lou Anarumo is trying to play a defense that fits one of his players, but not most of his players on defense.

17:59And that is how often they play man coverage.

18:02So they played man on more than 50% of their snaps in week one.

18:06Obviously it didn't work well versus the Baltimore Ravens, but you can take things back a little bit further because since the

18:13Sauce Gardner trade, they have the fifth highest man coverage rate in the NFL, 35.2%.

18:17That's a plus 6.7% man coverage rate before and after the Sauce Gardner trade.

18:22When you look at this past game, Sauce allowed one catch for 12 yards in man coverage.

18:27Brett, the rest of the team, eight catches for 180 yards.

18:30For me, this defense, I'm worried about it because it just feels like they're trying to play a coverage that fits one

18:37player, their prized player, but it doesn't really fit the other guys that are on the team.

18:42And defense, man, it's so much about all 11 guys working together and playing well.

18:47So I'm worried about this team on defense, especially for a Kansas City Chiefs offense that knows how to attack man coverage like that.

18:54And one of the things that Declan Doyle did in that game that I think was super underrated was he was using

19:01motions and formations not just to dictate that man coverage in a sense, but also to identify it to confirm that that dictation worked.

19:08What I mean by that is they had a 67.2% shifted motion rate, which is a good way to see if they're

19:15in man coverage, if somebody's going to be moving across the formation, is their defender following them?

19:20Usually means it's going to be man. They had a 37% nub rate, which was third highest in week one.

19:26And a significant chunk of that was six offensive line looks, right?

19:30Getting that jumbo tackle on the field. And what they were doing a lot was either they were putting a tight end

19:36in a nub to one side and then three receivers to the other side, or they were putting that jumbo tackle to

19:43one side and three receivers to the other side.

19:46Because you had snaps, like there was one, it was a first down to Mark Andrews, where you had the jumbo tackle

19:53on the field and Sauce was lined up on him.

19:56So obviously it's zone because Sauce isn't going to cover an offensive tackle in man coverage.

20:01I mean, he would. Preference-wise. I mean, he could.

20:03Yeah, probably. Yeah, right. But, you know, he was using formations and basically being like, either you match it with corners and

20:10tell us you're in man, or you match it with, you know, a safety or a linebacker or whatever, and you tell

20:17us you're in zone and then we just know exactly what you're doing.

20:21Like that was half the reason that 54-yard catch and run touchdown, they had Justice Hill lined up out wide with a corner on him.

20:28Well, now we know it's zone. And we're pretty sure it's going to be a fire zone.

20:33And it was. And Lamar gave like a brilliant little pump fake to get the safety to jump into lane and threw it around him.

20:41So they caught it, ran for the touchdown. Like just all the formation and motion stuff they did to them, they made

20:48it not just hard on them to disguise, they made it impossible to disguise what they were doing.

20:53Now let's talk Chiefs offense because we got to have the Kenneth Walker conversation.

20:58You and I in the season preview, we highlighted Kenneth Walker and how much of a difference maker he could be on this team.

21:05Well, early returns say pretty dang good. A backfield presence that this team hasn't had since Priest Holmes.

21:10Wow, Jamal Charles erasure. Oh my God. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

21:14You're sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That is Jamal Charles erasure.

21:17I was excited to get a Priest Holmes shout out here in the show.

21:21That's Jarek McKinnon erasure too. But let's talk about Kenneth Walker.

21:25Let's talk about running back value because he gets paid coming over from the Seattle Seahawks.

21:30Anytime a running back gets paid, it's always like, ooh, I don't know about that.

21:34Even if they're really talented. Well, we saw their returns on the field, but just overall, let's have the value conversation about

21:41running backs here, especially coming off a great performance from one who just got paid.

21:45So if you go back to 2015, a little over a decade ago, if you take the average of the top 10

21:52contracts at running back at that time and the average of the top 10 contracts among edges at that time, and you

21:59look at the percentage of the salary cap that those averages came out to, the difference between running back and edge was about a percent.

22:07The average of the top 10 running back contracts took up 10.04% of the salary cap.

22:11The average of the top 10 edge contracts took up about 11.17% of the salary cap.

22:16Quarterback, meanwhile, about 15.35%, which was already up significantly from a decade before that, right?

22:21When Peyton Manning signed his big deal. Fast forward to 2026, running back has steadily decreased as far as the percentage of

22:28the cap that the average of the top 10 contracts is taking up.

22:32Now it's at 7.47%. Edge has climbed up to 16.6%.

22:35So you're adding more than 5% to the average of top edge contracts.

22:39You're taking away about 2.5% from the average of running back contracts.

22:42Quarterback has gone up to 21.25%. So they're just taking more and more and more.

22:47And I look at it as, you know, not that running backs are being properly valued now.

22:52I think running backs have been devalued erroneously even at the expense of other...

22:56Erroneous on all accounts. On every account. But all these other positions have just taken money from these running backs.

23:02Yeah. And then you see these offenses that have highly paid quarterbacks and highly paid receivers, and they can't move the ball.

23:09And it's because they're consistently in third and long because they can't run the ball.

23:14You're just kind of lighting money on fire when you do that because you have all of, you know, this massive percentage

23:20of your salary cap, let's say in the Bengals case in quarterback and two receivers, if they were the worst run game

23:27in the league and they were consistently in third and eight because they couldn't run the ball.

23:32If you're looking league-wide at third down conversion percentages, third and one to three, league-wide average conversion is 60%.

23:38That's pretty damn good. League-wide average conversion on third and four to six to go is 43.7%.

23:43Still pretty good. Once you get to third and seven to 10, drops like a rock down to 31.3%.

23:4911 plus is 14.5%. So when you're bringing in a running back that can raise the ceiling of your running game, even

23:56by like a yard per carry, and you're a good early down run team, and you can get to more third and

24:02four and six rather than third and seven to 10, naturally, your third down conversion rate is going to go up, which

24:09means your offense is staying on the field, which means you're getting more value out of the rest of your offense just

24:16by paying a running back 7.5% of your salary cap.

24:19Like it is the most undervalued position in the sport right now.

24:23It's been devalued wrongly, erroneously, and we're starting to see these offenses realize that.

24:27You bring in Kenneth Walker, who's raising the ceiling of your running game.

24:31Pat Mahomes started the night, what, like 2 of 12?

24:34But it didn't matter because you had a running back that could still keep you on schedule and break off explosives by himself.

24:41Baltimore brought in Derrick Henry, elevated their run game.

24:44The Niners traded a bunch of picks for CMC.

24:46You think they regret that? No. The Texans traded for Dave Montgomery.

24:50They had a good short yardage game for the first time in like years in week one.

24:55So don't tell me running backs don't matter. You have to pay them.

24:59Not anybody can do this. And the fact that we were gaslit and thinking like, oh yeah, Alfred Morris is the same as Adrian Peterson.

25:07No, he's not. All respect to Alfred Morris. It's not the same.

25:10But that's always been the conversation is the ones that are worth it are worth it.

25:15To like oversimplify everything into one sentence, you have to find the running backs that individually can elevate the offense.

25:21Because there's a lot of running games where most of the success is credit to the offensive line and how potent the

25:28passing game is and how easy things can be at the line of scrimmage.

25:32But when you get a back like Kenneth Walker, who led week one with 14 missed tackles and 114 missed tackle yards, that is that super valuable.

25:41Because wherever you force a missed tackle, you're bringing individual value to a play.

25:45It's independent of your offensive line. It's why when I look at scouting, there's so many backs who rush for a crap

25:52ton of yards when they're in college. But the ones that become great pros are the ones who, whether it's behind the

25:58line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, beyond the line of scrimmage, if you are making guys miss and if you

26:05are getting yards after contact, that is you. That is individual value.

26:09And that's when you really start to elevate an offense.

26:12And that is why Kenneth Walker was worth it for the Kansas City Chiefs.

26:16And that's why he's going to be a focal point again in a game against the Colts who struggled to contain Derrick

26:23Henry It doesn't get any easier this week now that you're facing Kenneth Walker coming off that performance on Monday night.

26:29Also, one note to look at with these Colts linebackers.

26:32Second round pick, C.J. Allen. No snaps. Bryce Betcher, fourth round pick.

26:3630% of the snaps. Not sure why yet, but something to keep an eye on.

26:40Interesting. Interesting. Eagles-Titans. Eagles come away with a win against the Washington Commanders, but didn't exactly look like the Eagles of old,

26:47and I think specifically, Brett, the offensive line. The heart and soul, the true identity of why the Eagles have been so good.

26:54It's been in both trenches. And that O-line did not look the same in Philadelphia against Washington.

26:59Landon Dickerson, he just went on IR. And I, it was bad.

27:03Like, he needed to go on IR. He can't play right now.

27:07He can't move right now. But it wasn't even just him.

27:10Like, the entire Eagles offensive line wasn't good. Like, they allowed a 36.4% pressure rate.

27:15That was 12 highest, but really the worst numbers were in the run game.

27:19Right? Saquon got the vast majority of his yards after contact because he needed to.

27:23Right? He took out the one long run that he had in that game.

27:28The rest of his day was 14 carries for 41 yards.

27:31He was getting nothing done. And when you take away that kind of run game easy button from the Eagles, no matter

27:38who their offensive coordinator is, when you take that away, you know, Jalen just has to play on hard mode.

27:44And credit to him, by the way, he did that.

27:47Like, he made several excellent plays to bail them out of trouble in that game.

27:52He had five scrambles for 48 yards, third most across all of week one, most in a game for him since week one of last year.

27:599.6 yards per carry on those scrambles. Like, he was damn near getting a first down every time he took off.

28:06There was a third and 18 late in the game that he converted, just taking it upon his back.

28:12Be like, I gotta get us this first down.

28:14It's a one-point game. We're late in this thing.

28:17We gotta go. And he did it. This was the Jalen Hurts put the team on your back kind of game.

28:24And, you know, credit to him for doing it.

28:26Not a whole lot else worked with this offense because of the offensive line.

28:31But if Jalen can do that until they get this offensive line sorted, maybe Dickerson comes off IR.

28:36Until that, if Jalen can keep playing like this, they have a shot.

28:40But, boy, the difficulty level is just off the charts for him right now.

28:44On the other side of things, I wanna talk about the Titans offense.

28:48Because there was a lot of hype for the new coaching staff, obviously you draft Carnell Tate number four overall.

28:54But really tough first day. Cam Ward was 19 for 32, 140 passing yards, had a touchdown, no interceptions, QB rating of just 80.

29:02Completion percentage below 60% here in this game. Ultimately, though, I just felt as though Cam still looked hesitant.

29:08And people want the yearly jump, like the year one to year two jump.

29:12But for Cam, there were the good moments, but then there were the hesitant moments.

29:16And it was still a mixed bag. And there were all sorts of inconsistencies with Cam Ward.

29:22To me, there's just so much going on in his head.

29:25He's not being able to play super free. And I've kinda gotta get something off of my chest here, Brett.

29:31I don't understand why we weren't talking about the Titans drafting an offensive lineman at number four overall.

29:37They draft Carnell Tate, and everybody goes, and myself included, I go, okay, look, is Tate a good fit for the next

29:43step for Cam Ward and what this offense is gonna be as a legitimate vertical threat?

29:48To me, that was putting the cart before the horse.

29:51To me, that was eating dessert before you're eating your vegetables.

29:55Because when you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?

29:59The offensive line. This offensive line had the ninth highest pressure rate in 2025 at a 37.1%.

30:04And in week one, oh look, 41.0% pressure rate, eighth highest in the NFL.

30:09So they're a bottom 10 offensive line all of last year.

30:12They were a bottom 10 offensive line in week one.

30:15And this is the thing that baffled me the most, Brett.

30:18They played 10 or 11 personnel on 85% of their snaps.

30:22They played more snaps in empty at the snap than any team in the NFL this week.

30:27You know what happened when they ran those snaps?

30:30Either extremely quick throws or pressures and sacks and terrible plays.

30:33You don't have the offensive line to run 10 and 11 personnel.

30:37You want to know why the air raid and the spread offense works in college and it doesn't in the NFL?

30:43Offensive line. Because a lot of times the best offenses in college football, the talent gap is so wide you can play

30:50five-man protections and the other team doesn't have what it takes to cover you and get pressure the way that you need to.

30:57When the Tennessee Titans went empty or when they were trying to spread the field with four wide receivers, five receiving options, you know what the Jets did?

31:05They got home. They blitzed. So, for me, philosophically with this Titans offense, I'm worried because what Cam Ward did really well

31:12when he was at Washington State, when he was at Incarnate Word as well, and then certainly when he was at Miami

31:19is it was a lot of spread offense stuff.

31:21He wants to be in the shotgun. He wants to have multiple receivers that he could go to.

31:27You can only do that if you have the offensive line to protect him.

31:31And if you don't, it's going to end badly.

31:34And especially because they don't really have a blocking tight end on the roster to help them out here.

31:40Like, they signed Daniel Bellinger. Daniel Bellinger played 14 snaps for them this past game.

31:44So, is he really going to be a presence where all of a sudden you're playing him on the offensive line and

31:51he's really helping out and he's in there for chip locks and everything because then you've got to take a receiver off

31:58the field and I don't know how much they want to do that.

32:02I'll tell you what, this game is going to be great for fans of excellent defensive tackles beating the crap out of

32:08bad offensive lines because we talked about the interior of the Eagles offensive line being bad.

32:13Well, Jeff Simmons is coming to town. Good luck.

32:16One play at a time. Stay in the moment.

32:19You're looking at the platoon of defensive tackles that the Eagles are bringing with them, right?

32:24You're looking at Carter. You're looking at Davis. Mauro Ojeoma was sensational against the commanders.

32:28Like, he's the one who made the play on that two-point stop.

32:32He was reading a pole key and then, you know, the back block kind of came in from his right side.

32:38He just spun off of it, wrapped around the center and made the play all by himself.

32:44Like, these Eagles defensive tackles are no joke and they made the commanders offensive line look awful.

32:49Mauro Ojeoma with the big play and the Eagles make the stand they needed.

32:53Which is probably a good segue into talking about commanders cowboys because I don't know what Washington can do to help out Jaden Daniels.

33:00Like, their offensive line might be the worst one that we're going to talk about today and that is a low bar.

33:07Yeah, so they do bring Campbell as a five-man rush at the top of the screen and they're just late on the

33:14kick out there Coleman and as a quarterback you're feeling that pressure all day that's speeding up your internal clock.

33:20So I was looking into the numbers and obviously I saw that the offensive line didn't play great but I always like

33:27to sort of dive a little bit deeper, right?

33:29Jaden was holding onto the ball for a long time 3.41 time to throw I feel like he just didn't, you know,

33:36really trust the game as it was coming to him there was one play in particular that I watched where he had

33:43all of his receivers to one side and he had so much green grass to just run and scramble and he didn't

33:49take it because I just think there's this overall hesitancy with him behind that offensive line.

33:543.2 average separation at the throw for the receivers and a 14.7 tight window throws in week one they're not great they're

34:01like bottom 10, 12 in the NFL last week but it's not like it was dead last it's not like it was horrendous or anything like that.

34:09The main takeaway though Brett is yeah the offensive line didn't play well but specifically the Eagles did not care about the commanders run game at all.

34:17They basically said sure okay try to run the ball and there were multiple times where I'm watching Jaden Daniels drop back

34:24and even when there's play action involved even when there's some misdirection even when they have a threat to run the ball

34:31out of the backfield the Eagles were like dad don't care we'll drop seven we'll drop eight if you want to run

34:38the ball go ahead try we don't respect your run game but I wonder how much other teams like will the Cowboys

34:44and will teams moving forward not respect the commanders run game until they really prove that they have to if you don't

34:51have a run game or a run threat it makes it so much easier for teams to really cover you and that

34:58was actually what ended up being my main takeaway for the commanders is they gotta run the ball better and you know

35:04failing that if you can't get through the Cowboys defensive line you should at least be able to go around the Cowboys

35:11defensive line we saw the Giants do that brilliantly in week one just hammering the flats over and over and over again

35:18Chris Collinsworth was like apoplectic during the broadcast about it he's like how are you guys not covering this and we actually

35:25had some really good sound from Shadi after that game because he was so frustrated one of the things not an excuse

35:31guys we did not we did not play well we don't push three different times to the fucking flat route excuse my

35:38language those are those are gonna happen so clearly Shadi none to please there and I believe I found the exact play

35:45that he was referring to this was down in the red zone it's a second and very long and the Cowboys are

35:51in a coverage here that the Fangio world calls cover nine why do they call it cover nine instead of cover three

35:58I'm not entirely sure I bet there's a reason that goes back 40 years I just don't know what that reason is

36:05but they call it cover nine it's basically just a three deep zone four underneath very similar to what we're all used

36:12to here but there is a little adjustment that they call a sight call in the Fangio world where if the running

36:18back is what's known as fast to the flat meaning he's not just doing a little like you know check release here

36:25he's not giving a chip and then leaking out like if he is immediately releasing to the flat then it's the safety's

36:32responsibility to push to the flat and take that away if the running back is slow to the flat then it's the

36:38linebacker and so because this running back was fast to the flat you actually see the safety you know point to him

36:45like he's expecting the linebacker to go with him but if you're playing this sight call here it's actually the safety's responsibility

36:52he realizes it way too late running back gets an easy catch and run sets up a third and very short and

36:59then they scored very soon after that again in the flats entirely different coverage this one actually was on Barham he should

37:05have been pushing to the flat there and just lollygag through it but you can see why Schottenheimer was so frustrated and

37:12why I'm sure Christian Parker was super frustrated is because the Eagles cover this 10 times out of 10 because they understand

37:19that the running back's release is going to change the responsibility between the linebacker and the safety the Cowboys are still brand

37:25new at this it's a very new system for them you have players especially Barham who you know he's a rookie it's

37:32his first ever game I do believe they will get this corrected even the Eagles you know when Fangio first started consulting

37:39with them they were kind of out of sorts at first when they started running all this stuff that was years ago

37:46at this point but I have to believe that a mistake this minor is going to be fixed in very short order

37:52it probably already has been in the meetings that they've had since this game but I just wanted to explain why Shadi

37:59was so beside himself because this is just like cover 9 101 and they failed in their first game you could tell

38:06he was very frustrated but he was trying to bite his tongue a little bit you know this is a humbling business

38:12and we got humbled tonight I think it's a reminder for everybody myself included as somebody who loves the draft and you

38:19know when these rookies get selected these teams you can't wait to see them out there and playing it takes time it

38:26really does take time for these guys to be able to do everything that they need to do we have to coach

38:33the young players better but when you play young players it's part of the deal and they need to learn quickly we

38:39got to talk about the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams really for two extremely different reasons right the Giants

38:46are coming off what I think we on this show have to call the biggest upset that we had last week because

38:53we picked the Cowboys as our 10 confidence game last week when we were doing our game picks and we thought that

38:59the Cowboys were going to win that game obviously the New York Giants end up winning this game but they're traveling to

39:06LA now cross country to take on a Rams team that are to look worse honestly just given everything that the Rams

39:13were I mean Stafford had a negative 0.52 EPA per play on his dropbacks for San Francisco in week 1 that was

39:20his worst in a single game since 2016 nothing was working for the Rams not only just to the Super Bowl standard

39:26that everybody has for them just from going out there week 1 and kind of doing your thing making sure that you're

39:33putting your best foot forward it was not there for them so we're going to talk about both of these teams pretty

39:40well but what do you think about the Giants coming off of that big win now facing the Rams what's sort of

39:46the area that you want to preview here for this one it was a perfect plan right Nagy and Roman together apparently

39:53a double negative makes a positive I guess but maybe they just needed each other all along I'm sorry I'm sorry I've

40:00been traumatized by both of them too veterans veteran coaching staff Brett we'll call it that knowledge wisdom but it worked again

40:07I'm being kind of a dick about it but it worked like they they had a really good plan and the fact

40:13that their entire plan was hey let's not go backwards that was effective it's seven possessions in this game in the in

40:20the last two quarters they had what 22 and a half minutes time of possession out of 30 like it was suffocating

40:27so it was a great plan by them the run game wasn't particularly explosive but it was four four and a half

40:33yards over and over and over again well you do that three times in a row you got a first down then

40:40you do that four times in a row you're in the red zone and on the opening drive of the season the

40:47new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61 last

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43:14to me it was a perfectly executed ball control game plan I thought Jackson Dart was awesome in this game didn't have

43:21to make the Josh Allen type of throws but did make the throws that he was supposed to make and was on

43:28point was accurate was in rhythm all the platitudes we love to talk about they were just really really effective and they

43:35took advantage of a Cowboys defense in their first game in a new system that wasn't pushing to the flat three times

43:41in four plays we don't push three different times to the flat route excuse my language and I'll tell you what if

43:48it's not broke don't fix it I thought the Giants obviously did a great job of managing the game the way they

43:55needed to and not shooting themselves in the foot right and if there's a critique that I had of Jackson Dart when

44:01he was coming out of Ole Miss it was sure I recognized the great plays but I felt like there were too

44:08many plays where he was hurting the offense or certainly hurting himself and his cause to move the ball down the field

44:15and it looked like a lot more methodical so I loved the sort of progression of even what Jackson Dart was able

44:22to do if you want to call it an easy day at the office fine but he helped make it an easy

44:28day at the office on the Rams side of things I do think that the pendulum has to swing back in the

44:35other direction there's a lot of things that could have gone wrong here for the Rams we talked at the very top

44:42of the show of just the epidemic that was missed tackles and missed execution with week one and we sort of related

44:48it to maybe lack of preseason reps being a reason why the Rams don't play any of their starters in the preseason

44:55it's just not the McVay way and you tie that into I'm trying not to be too hindsight with this but I

45:02always kind of felt like a very strange travel plan for them when did they get out here oh dang going all

45:09the way across the world to play this game and not adjusting the body clocks at all whatsoever I mean this team

45:15did not look physically or mentally sharp for this game and I have to feel is that within a much more regular

45:22environment for them it doesn't look nearly as bad as it did in week one but the area I'm most curious to

45:29see what is different in week two from week one when it comes to Los Angeles Rams is how they play defense

45:35specifically how they covered you trade for Trent McDuffie you sign Jalen Watson these guys are our man coverage type of defenders

45:42Trent McDuffie played 25.7% of his coverage in man in week one fourth lowest single game rate of his career like he's

45:49a man coverage type of corner or certainly was when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs they just didn't ask him

45:56to do that I mean he's played man on 43.5% of his coverage snaps since entering the league in 2022 that's the

46:02ninth highest amongst all defensive backs with over a thousand coverage snaps during that span so I feel as though they acquire

46:09these man coverage defenders and they played it some they played it 19% but they really didn't play it much and it

46:16goes back to is this a little bit like the Colts conversation that we had earlier are you not playing your players

46:22to their strengths as a defense as a whole now I think there are some things that you could look at with

46:29this game with context that could tell you that things might look different in week two one Shanahan does do a lot

46:36of motion stuff and when you play man like you referenced earlier in the show you kind of give away that you're

46:43playing man when there's all this motion and Brock Purdy gets a better look at what the defense is going to be

46:49post snap if you if you have that sort of reaction to guys who are in motion when they're in man coverage

46:56there's a little bit of that but I will say this Mike Evans was a man coverage neutralizer in that game I

47:03went back and I watched the man coverage reps that they tried to play in that game and a lot of times

47:09Mike Evans was in the slot for that they couldn't handle it no matter who was playing in the slot they did

47:16not have the answers for Mike Evans when they were playing in man coverage so do the Giants have their version of

47:23Mike Evans is it Malik neighbors is it Malachi Fields is it Isaiah likely do they have that version of Mike Evans

47:29to attack them from sort of that big strong slot type of a wide receiver archetype I'm very curious so I think

47:36that Stafford will bounce back the Rams offensive line was still moving people off the ball in the power run game I

47:43think those things will be consistent but what does the defense look like I'm not really worried about it without Miles Garrett

47:50to be honest with you I'm not the defensive line was already oh no they have three other good pass rushers what

47:56are they going to do that's the thing we told the whole the whole point of conversation was they added Miles Garrett

48:03to this defense well guess what now they still have this defense right so it's still that defense but what does the

48:10coverage look like and how different is it from week one very curious to see what that looks like for the Rams

48:16I will say Francis Malinoa no pressures allowed on 36 pass blocking snaps going up against Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk super

48:23intriguing matchup and you also brought up Malachi Fields I'm gonna take my opportunity do you watch him as a run blocker

48:30oh I watched him as a run blocker when he was at Notre Dame too so he's a he's a new father

48:37shout out to Malachi he's a new father and immediately got dad strength because oh my God he was burying people I

48:43thought you were saying that because he sunned people in the run game yeah he just picked up a bunch of extra

48:50kids in week one we got one more game ball his first victory is New York Johnson okay we're wrapping up the

48:57show here getting to you guys the people because you guys have been unbelievable since we started this show since we first

49:03announced that we were doing it you guys have been such a big part of all the topics that we put together

49:10we try to you know take so many of your suggestions and we ask for questions here at the end of the

49:17show and Brett I think that once again we got like 250 responses so you guys are so involved and we want

49:24to get you guys as involved as possible we might even have to do our own separate Q&A show at some point

49:30but we love you guys thank you so much for wanting to get in on the show we really appreciate it we

49:37will answer a couple here to round us out real Chris Yonke as the first one and I think it's one that

49:44a lot of people want to know the answer to which outcomes in week one are liars and which ones are you

49:50buying I am buying Brett the Ravens buying their dominance I'm buying the new offense with Declan Doyle how much they were

49:57able to just move the ball at will against the Indianapolis Colts I'm buying them being a great team I'm buying the

50:04Bears and I'm buying the Bears good and bad I'm buying that the Bears are gonna score a crap ton of points

50:11this year and I'm also buying the fact that they are indeed going to give up a lot of points this year

50:17so scoring 59 I don't know if they're gonna score 59 every week but scoring a lot of points every week but

50:24also giving up a good amount of yards and points every week it makes the Bears much watch TV every single week

50:31no matter what and I'm also buying the Cincinnati Bengals and specifically with the Cincinnati Bengals I am buying how much better

50:37they are in both trenches we talked about this in the season preview show and it absolutely showed up week one that

50:44offensive line look great Marius Mims look like a future all-pro Dexter Lawrence presence was well worth it and I'm in the

50:51middle of that defense and the new speed additions they have on the edge look beautiful so I'm buying those three teams

50:58the Ravens the Bears and the Bengals what teams are you buying from week one I'm a little bit more hesitant both

51:04ways so I have fewer that I I'm like more definitive on but I will say I'm buying the Chiefs because this

51:11is what they look like when they have a real run game and the passing game wasn't even good and they were

51:18still up by like three scores in the second half is crazy so I'm buying the Chiefs I'm buying that defense and

51:24buying the run game and I'm buying the 49ers because they're healthy for now and I always feel good about you know

51:31believing in the 49ers when they have at least 80 percent of their guys which they do as far as liars mine

51:38are like positives compliments I guess even I think the Bucks again coward your your Tampa whoa well I'm being nice to

51:45you well I didn't know you oh yeah well I didn't know you're gonna say the Bucks now you're now yeah you

51:51now you're a man of integrity now you're a man who just tells the truth you know when nobody else will now

51:58yeah now I love it vision how often are they gonna turn the ball over four times in a game I mean

52:05hopefully once I think they're gonna be fine they got within six points even with four turnovers they're gonna be fine and

52:11then as for the panic button about you know Reuben Bain dude Amarius Mims is gonna do that to a lot of

52:18people this year I agree people need to to understand how good Amarius Mims not just could be but is now like

52:25Cappy learned how to putt he's awesome and then I also have the Texans as liars in a positive way they're not

52:32gonna give up 36 points to very many people Josh Allen is one of I don't know four quarterbacks on planet Earth

52:38that I think could do that to them as far as the insane throws that he made to put up those points

52:45I think they're gonna be fine you know the success rate that they allowed against Buffalo was totally normal so Houston and

52:52honestly if I'm a Texans fan well I am a Texans fan I'm coming out of that loss as positively as I

52:58possibly can I'm treating it like you know an SEC team losing to Alabama in the mid 2010s they put up yards

53:05they were good in the red zone it's like that's a quality loss right there yeah I think that my liars I'm

53:12more pointing out sort of their opponent like I think the Jets overall are liars because I think the Titans were terrible

53:19so I don't know if it's gonna look that good for them moving forward we shall see I think the same thing

53:25about the Giants the Cowboys just played a horrendous game so I thought the Giants were great I'm not so sure it's

53:32gonna look that good every single week I'm not trying to take everything away from the Giants like we talked about in

53:39the preview but I don't think it's gonna look quite like that every single week and then the Rams so interestingly I

53:45have two teams on this list that play each other this week with the Rams and the Giants the Giants I don't

53:52know if it's gonna look as good as it looked in week one the Rams it cannot look as bad as it

53:59looked in week one so we'll actually get to see what the result of that is so there we go that's our

54:05first question our second question this one's from Mike Cash and I think a lot of people are wanting to know the

54:12answer to this one the Jets rolled out a 0-5 personnel on Sunday sure why not with five tight ends on the

54:19field has the love of tight ends gone too far Brett how do we feel about this one in fact I had

54:26one of our analyst guys see has this been has this happened before because I'm I was thinking maybe there wasn't now

54:32that's not why we did it it was just we got five good tight ends so he went back to he went

54:39back 20 years and he couldn't find any evidence of of 0-5 personnel so I like it for those tight ends I'm

54:46still hesitant to call it 0-5 personnel because like technically one of them was a fullback so if we're counting that as

54:52more of like a running back than a tight like maybe it's 14 but like the most hilarious 14 personnel group you've

54:59ever seen well it ended up being was it was it was it 0-5 personnel or because technically they were set up

55:06in I don't even know what to call like a jumbo pony package because it was like 19 20s and then yeah

55:13it was and then they pre-snap they moved into what was actually I think more of a 14 personnel an alert for

55:19future weeks on that Kenyon Sadiq was in the backfield they could give him a he runs 4-4 give him a carry

55:26he got a carry in this game I think and it wasn't even that play did he but I think he did

55:33get a carry in that game yeah I think we're gonna see more of that I think they just wanted to see

55:39how defenses responded to it honestly so it was open I should note that it was open Mason Taylor like the throw

55:46was there for the touchdown Gino didn't take it but like the play worked it did work it absolutely worked so in

55:532025 it was the highest rate of two tight end sets on average more so than any other year in the NGS

56:00era at 33.2 percent and week one par for the course league average of 33 percent so we were right there with

56:06that heavy tight end usage has it gone too far no of course not no no it can't go far enough can't

56:13go far what about what about 0-6 personnel take one of the offensive linemen off the field get another tight end in

56:20there Jackson Hawes baby he's a tackle he's a tackle 315 and you never do you never know what's gonna happen you

56:26never know what's gonna happen when he's on the field it's time for our game picks a little bit of a confidence

56:33flare here for week two we had a lot of fun doing this for the first time in week one so what

56:40we're doing is we're picking our 10 favorite games all right we're not only picking the game but then we're also picking

56:47a spot of how much confidence we have we're keeping score we're getting points for hey if we call this game and

56:53they were our most confident game we're getting more points or if they were the least confident game getting a little bit

57:00less so what we're gonna do is we're gonna keep score throughout the entire year and Brett I do have your score

57:07from last week I know you have mine we have not revealed this to each other yet so you didn't get your

57:1310 spot game you picked the Cowboys winning against the Giants which so did I so you didn't get your top points

57:20there with the 10 points you missed that game and then you missed your least confident game and then your second least

57:27confidence game so you did pretty good here last week you got 42 total points when it came to picking the correct

57:34team that won the game and then also where you had them in the confidence but did I do better that's the

57:40question because you have you have my final score in the envelope how did I do last week so your score starts

57:47with a four okay great good start it ends with a zero baby let's go week one in the books okay all

57:54right calm down calm down it's one week it is one week but what we're gonna do is we're going to keep

58:00a tally and score so Brett is up two points on me right now we're not like restarting with every single week

58:07so he is up to so if he's up to this weekend let's say you get eight points next week then you're

58:14gonna be up 10 points on me on the season so we're gonna keep a score and it's gonna be cumulative that

58:21way because if one of us gets way ahead on the scoreboard and we get to like week 17 week 18 it

58:27could be a lot of fun because one of us has to make some strong cases for some teams that might not

58:34win so it's it's a way where we're gonna have fun here picking these games previewing these games but also the confidence

58:41meter I think throws a lot of fun so if you guys want to follow along and participate on your own at

58:47home feel free to do so fire them off in the comment section we'll take a look at it we'll go back

58:54and forth and talk with you guys about your picks but Brett the first game that we're talking about is Thursday night

59:01football let's get into it here Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills who do you have winning and

59:08where is it in the confidence meter for you I have bills over Lions for one okay it is my confidence level

59:14of one okay okay it's a Thursday game weird stuff happens on Thursdays I think the Lions are a genuinely good team

59:21now you're opening a new stadium I think there's gonna be a ton of juice in the building but just looking at

59:28all the firepower the Lions have this is kind of a tough matchup for anybody to have even though the Lions did

59:34have to scratch and claw and fight to beat New Orleans last week this is just the kind of game that could

59:41really go sideways and so while I do think the Bills are gonna win just because Josh Allen is an absolute superhuman

59:48and he's one of the only quarterbacks who I think could have beat the Texans last week I'm not super confident either

59:55way so I'm leaving it at my one spot yeah understandable I think you might be smart having them at the one

60:01given it it's Thursday night football it's two really good teams I also had the Bills winning but I have this in

60:08my four spot so a little bit higher than you on the rankings I'm a little bit more confident in the Bills

60:15and simply put I think you guys are gonna hear a theme from my game picks when the good quarterbacks are playing

60:21good right out of the gate it's hard for me to bet against them Josh Allen was unbelievable against the Houston Texans

60:28you and I talked about this in the reaction show we highlighted how much the Detroit Lions kind of want to play

60:35man coverage and man if there's somebody with some arm arrogance to really go after when you're not playing well in man

60:41coverage it's Josh Allen so I agree you know I think the juice can be flowing you're opening up the new stadium

60:48give me the Bills in this one and give me them at the four spot Saints at Ravens the next game we're

60:55talking about here we got winning this one and where is it in the ranking I'm actually way more confident this one

61:02I went Baltimore over New Orleans and it's because if you look at what Tyler Shuck did last week again all credit

61:08to him for that late game comeback you know got three touchdowns against all that man coverage from the Lions in the

61:15red zone but they really didn't start playing man until they got to the red zone and I look at what Baltimore

61:22does defensively with Jesse Minter he not only calls a lot of zone coverage he calls a lot of like very it's

61:28a tricky zone coverage a lot of rotations a lot of I'm showing you this I'm giving you this and shock really

61:35struggled against that in the first half that was actually something he also struggled as a rookie against and I just I

61:42look at a very potent offense it's going to put pressure on you to score and a defense that likes to use

61:49a lot of disguise a lot of really kind of fancy exotic pressure looks I'm not super confident in Chuck to be

61:55able to sort that out I like the Saints talent it's just this might be a game that they win next year

62:02not necessarily this year so I put that at my seventh spot I'm a little higher than you on it picking the

62:09same team but I had the Ravens winning in there at the nine spot for me the nine spot feels disrespectful given

62:15Tyler Shuck hater how Tyler Shuck in this team played in the fourth quarter and overtime but I echo everything that you

62:22just said there Tyler Shuck really struggled and I think just the chemistry with the wide receivers the timing the everything was

62:29just a little off in that first half and that was heavy zone coverage stuff Jesse Minter is great at it they

62:36understand when Tyler Shuck was playing well and I think they're going to do everything that they can to sort of not

62:42allow him to really be able to read the field and just say all right that guy's in man it's just about

62:49me putting the ball where it needs to go in tight windows and he's got the arm talent to do it but

62:56when you really got to continuously think I think that's when he was a little slow and a little hesitant to get

63:02rid of the ball Vikings at Bears the Bears coming off 59 points on the road in Carolina the Vikings hell of

63:09a comeback themselves it's Flores it's it's it's Ben Johnson what do we think here who you got winning this game so

63:16Chicago scored 59 in a game Minnesota scored 22 and a quarter so this game is almost impossible to figure out how

63:23it's going to go especially because Flores and Ben Johnson have a deep history against one another Johnson historically has been one

63:29of the only offensive minds that really does a whole lot of anything against Flores I am picking the Bears in this

63:36game I am not super confident in it just because you know NFC North shenanigans tend to happen especially early in the

63:43season and when these two coordinators get together they're always throwing haymakers against each other they do tend to get the best

63:49of each other it's a tough game to pick I'm gonna go Bears just because I'm not 100% certain who's gonna be

63:56starting for the Vikings at quarterback as of recording this we don't know and man 59 points it'd be kind of weird

64:03to see them put up that many points in week one and then pick against them in week two where do you

64:10have them in the right two spot not okay man so so we're getting the low we're getting the low confidence games

64:16out of the way early for you again I am picking the same team I'm just a lot more confident and so

64:23you know it's this is gonna be very interesting if these teams win or lose because we're picking the same teams we're

64:30just very different in the confidence meter I have the Bears winning at my seven spot I have a lot of faith

64:36in what that offense showed us in week one how Caleb looked how the ground game looked it was incredible and yes

64:43the Vikings moved the ball really well and had an incredible comeback I'm not trying to take anything away from him Packers

64:50defense was rough and more than that they really struggled to hold on to possession at all whatsoever when it came to

64:57that second half so even though I have my questions on Chicago's defense as well coming off giving up 37 points to

65:03the Carolina Panthers I don't think there's going to be this lack of possession this lack of time of possession this consistency

65:10that existed with Green Bay when they faced off against Minnesota last week and I think that was a major catalyst for

65:17why Minnesota was able to come back and look as good as they did in the second half because Green Bay just

65:23I mean they couldn't hold on to the football there was no possession for them at all whatsoever no efficiency and I

65:30just don't think that's going to be the case with Chicago's the Cincinnati Bengals coming off a win against the Tampa Bay

65:37Buccaneers traveling to Houston to take on a Texans team that ain't used to giving up 30 plus points and so you

65:44know they're going to be extremely motivated but you know the Bengals starting off the season really hot and they normally don't

65:50do that so you know they want to keep the momentum rolling who you got winning this game so this is in

65:57my four spot okay I'm taking the Texans all right I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these two teams are

66:04right because the Bengals suddenly have a real defense right they have a real pass rush which helps out and the Texans

66:10suddenly have a real offense so it's two very evenly matched teams and the fact that Houston starting out their season with

66:17you know Josh Allen and Joe Burrow it's about as difficult to start to a schedule as you can have last week

66:24the Texans bills was at my one spot because I really wasn't sure who was gonna win and the game came down

66:31to the wire I think this one's also gonna come down to the wire I do think the Texans are gonna get

66:37the better of them just because I don't expect their defense to give up 36 again Joe Burrow is capable of many

66:44things there's a couple throws that Josh Allen made in that game that I'm not even sure if Joe could have done

66:51those so I'm gonna go Houston I'm only confident the four spot but I do think they win I'll go opposite side

66:57of the coin here we'll differ for the first time on this show in week two I'm gonna go Cincinnati Bengals but

67:04I have them in the one spot when it comes to confidence because I really don't know who is gonna come on

67:11somebody's gotta be in the one you were just saving that for no matter what but I think this game is gonna

67:17be really really tight and I'm taking the Bengals simply because I was really impressed with how they were on the trenches

67:24both offensively and defensively when you can play the way that you did with that with Jamar chase 12 total receiving yards

67:31you know that that's probably not gonna happen again so you're gonna get Jamar involved a little bit more I'll ride the

67:38momentum here for the Cincinnati Bengals and I'll have them winning this game but I just have them at that one spot

67:44Jags and the Broncos two totally different week one performances the Jags just blew out the Cleveland Browns in a game that

67:51was never close and then the Broncos laying an egg on Monday night football against the Kansas City Chiefs what do we

67:58think about this game here preseason they tell you that hey this is a premier game of week two and I think

68:04that it absolutely could be but who do you have winning and where are they in the confidence meter I am picking

68:11the Jaguars in this game but I do think it's gonna be a tougher fight you know we looked at how much

68:18Bo Nix struggled against man coverage against KC well the Jags don't really play a lot of man coverage they do tend

68:25to favor zone Anthony Campanelli you know he comes from both both a Fangio and a Jeff Halfley influence at the same

68:31time so he calls a lot of quarters I think on paper theoretically in a vacuum Bo Nix should be better against

68:38the Jack this Jaguars style of defense I am worried about it so I only have it in my sixth spot but

68:45I do think that you know if you look at just the difference between how Trevor is playing right now versus how

68:51Bo is playing right now and it is a quarterback league I mean Trevor is one of the early candidates for MVP

68:58after you know one week of play but he was absolutely unassailable last week I'm picking the Jags as well I only

69:05have them at my two spot where did you have them in your rankings six okay you got the Jags at your

69:12sixth spot I have them in the two spot this is a game where it's hard to have concrete takeaways one way

69:18or the other because yes Jacksonville was great but they were playing what might be the worst team in the NFL this

69:25year the Broncos look terrible against the Chiefs but you kind of say to yourself my goodness a lot of the issues

69:32that they had run the defensive side of the ball is that defense really gonna look that bad the entire year I

69:38mean where they were one of the best in the NFL they gave up the most yards after a missed tackle in

69:45NGS's database history which goes back to 2018 so it can't be that bad again right Seahawks and the Cardinals a little

69:52interesting game a little closer than some people maybe thought was going to be the case with the Cardinals coming off that

69:59win against the Chargers but this one's in Arizona what do you think about this one and where you putting in your

70:05confidence rankings give me the Seahawks okay go Drew Locke even with a backup quarterback I look at not just the talent

70:12on the Seahawks team but also the coaching staff I think it's a tremendous coaching staff I am fascinated to see if

70:19Jacoby Percet gets away with with doing it again as far as the amount of shotgun that they were in against against

70:25the Chargers and also just the average time to throw like he had the second highest quick throw percentage across the league

70:32in week one only second to Joe Burrow who got it out basically instantaneously against Tampa and I'm not sure if the

70:39Seahawks are gonna let them do that again if the Cardinals start out to know tip of the cap to you cool

70:46I'm putting it at the three spot not have it for confident but I have it at the exact same spot we're

70:52getting a lot of my low confidence games out of the way here early I also have them in the three spot

70:59I have the Seahawks winning I love what I saw from the Cardinals they looked fearless they looked ready for that game

71:06they didn't look like oh this is a team that could be picking number one overall next year they say screw that

71:12you know they certainly went into this game went on the road in so far and we're not afraid of the Chargers

71:19at all whatsoever and we're the aggressors in that game and so I don't think they're just gonna be backing down from

71:26the Seahawks just because of the reigning Super Bowl champs they're gonna come out and give it their best all that to

71:33say at Seahawks defense is special man I think it's still gonna get after him I think that's gonna be the X

71:39factor here give me a little closer obviously with no Sam Darnold in this game and you know with the run game

71:46not being as efficient or as explosive as when they had Kenneth Walker back there but I'm still going to Seahawks here

71:53and you mentioned if the Cardinals can come out of this game be 2-0 holy cow we're gonna be spending some time

71:59breaking down and talking about how this team had one of the best surprise starts of any team in the NFL so

72:06we will see Colts to the Chiefs Chiefs obviously feeling good coming off that Monday night win Colts man really reeling from

72:13felt like a blowout against the Baltimore Ravens there what do you think about this game who you picking and where is

72:20it in the conference meter boy I was confident in the Colts you know during the summer because as soon as we

72:26heard Daniel Jones is gonna be back early I was like okay well I'm looking at what that offense did in the

72:33first half of last season and they just laid an egg to the point where I was not just deeply concerned about

72:40how they matched up against Baltimore I'm deeply concerned about how they match up against anybody they called so much man coverage

72:46in week one but couldn't play man coverage right their corners even gave like the corners are supposed to be a thing

72:53they hang their hat on in that defense they gave up a lot of yards in man coverage so if they can't

73:00do that defensively I don't feel great about how they match up against Kansas City who have all sorts of ways to

73:07just break guys open in man coverage not necessarily by being good route runners I'm talking like formation wise and using motions

73:13and then defensively I think Kansas City's defense played so well and I have real real concerns about how the Colts are

73:20gonna come out against that so give me the Chiefs in this game I'm putting it basically dead in the middle at

73:27five but based on what we saw in week one I don't know if I could justify picking Indianapolis I got the

73:33Chiefs at the eighth spot here I'm pretty confident in this one because if the Chiefs can look the way that they

73:40did with Patrick Mahomes not completing a single pass beyond 10 air yards sky is pretty much the limit at that point

73:47I think the first and foremost is the are the Colts gonna be able to stop the run game with Kenneth Walker

73:53and then if you are okay well now you've got to deal with like you mentioned Andy Reid who's very very good

74:00at dialing up these man beaters type of play concepts and he's got a great quarterback when it comes to timing and

74:07overall arm strength to be able to hit these fast receivers to get them the ball I think the Colts are still

74:14gonna be able to run the ball well just like they did against the Ravens but what else outside of that that's

74:20my question with the Colts what are you outside of what we thought you kind of already were can you be anything

74:27above and beyond that Steelers at Patriots how do we feel about this game who's winning this one I put this at

74:34my eighth spot okay for who New England over Pittsburgh okay all right okay all right really bad picks in the second

74:40half I get it Drake May that was the worst game of his career might be the worst game he's played even

74:47going back to college it was almost like sophomore level UNC Drake May McDonald's started blitzing way more in the second half

74:54to try to get them into more second and longs third and longs and Drake was like I got to make a

75:01play I got to do something you're up 10 nothing no you don't right and that's a young quarterback trying to put

75:07the game in his hands when he really didn't have to and I think that was probably the best thing that could

75:14have happened to him in week one because he learned a lesson of course they lose AJ Brown in that game so

75:21there were some longer ramifications but he learned a lesson that he really needed to learn again and now he's going against

75:27a Steelers team that I don't know if anybody watched the Steelers offense in week one not great so no still not

75:34still not super explosive defense is great I mean they were able to really get a ton of great pressure at least

75:41although they didn't play a single rep of man coverage at all so it'll be interesting to see if they just have

75:48a little bit more respect for what Drake May can do in that respect I'm taking the Patriots as well put them

75:54in my sixth spot I'll go Patriots over Steelers commanders at the Cowboys now hold on before you answer this if I'm

76:01keeping score correctly at home you still have your nine and your ten spot open one of these two last games is

76:08it's it's your most confident game and then your second most confident game where are the Cowboys at or sorry no it's

76:14the commanders at the Cowboys so this one's in Dallas where's that one for you that's my tenor you I have your

76:21Cowboys you're putting the Cowboys at the ten again second time in a row you can't be wrong twice in a row

76:28Trev have you not learned I'm gonna be digging out of this hole till Christmas dude I'm I'm also picking the Cowboys

76:35by the way but they're the five spot for me so they're I'm picking the same team it's a little further down

76:41so if the commanders you get the upset here you might be in trouble my friend dude if the commanders get the

76:48upset I am hosed but it's okay if you just look at a the Cowboys offense in week one they only had

76:55seven possessions they scored on four of them the offense was not the problem the defense was and some of the errors

77:01on defense I think are very correctable if you look at the commanders offense in week one they have structural issues that

77:08are not not really correctable like that yeah it just didn't have the talent up front they could not block Philly whatsoever

77:15I'm not confident in this commanders team whatsoever and while I do respect the hell out of them for coming back against

77:22the Eagles and almost tying it up they were down for a reason I'm with you and that's why I'm going with

77:28the Cowboys but it's it's gonna be worth monitoring very very closely a lot of mental errors and some reps where the

77:35effort wasn't as good as you wanted it to be from that Cowboys defense overall and you go okay hold on here

77:42if we get anything that's close to a repeat performance of those elements you start to get worried about Dallas but for

77:48now I'll think that hey those guys probably watch the tape said we do not want to put that out there ever

77:55again it's gonna look different I'm also taking the Cowboys but I got them at the five spot which means Rams and

78:02the Giants I've got it at the ten spot most confident game you've got it at the nine spot your second most

78:09confident game here of course you take the Giants right I mean the Giants are on the roll you gotta be you

78:15gotta be taking the Giants here right right right I'm backing you in a corner to make you pick the Giants here

78:22I'm a coward I can't do it I'm going to Rams dude I am too if this Rams team started out as

78:29like the heavy heavy heavy choice for everybody to win the Super Bowl and they start 0-2 that might be the story

78:35of the you know the first quarter of the season you have Matthew Stafford the reigning MVP you have Puka you have

78:42Devonta you have a run game that was really really effective last year and on the defensive line you still have Kobe

78:49and Byron and Brayton and you bring it in McDuffie and Watson I can't imagine this team lays that much of an

78:56egg again I thought it was the just a recipe for failure how they handled everything in week one and I think

79:02a lot of that naturally gets remedied in week two if the Giants win this game if the Rams start 0-2 boy

79:09that's going to be an interesting breakdown for us on the reaction show because I got the Rams at my 10 spot

79:16most confident game for them to bounce back and get this win you got up at the 9 spot all right that's

79:22all the time that we had here for for this show we love you guys thank you so much for all the

79:29questions there you got you gave so many incredible questions that honestly like we talked to the staffer like do we even

79:36need to just like have a separate show just for questions because we want to get you guys involved in the show

79:43as much as possible because we really really pre appreciate all the engagement all the love from you guys it makes this

79:49a lot of fun every single week thank you guys so much for watching if you guys want to see you know

79:56whether it's the film or the data or whatever it is we're using NFL pro for all this stuff so that paired

80:03with NGS make sure you guys have a subscription to those things and you can find a lot of this information out

80:09yourself but thank you for hanging out with us we appreciate it we will be back with you on Monday for our

80:16reaction show of everything that we're about to see here in week two we'll see you guys then whether you're a seasoned

80:23NFL fan or new to the game there's one place to keep up with all of it the league's newest podcast the

80:29NFL report hosted by me Andrew Siciliano it is your home for everything football breaking news expert analysis game picks and hear

80:36from your favorite players to join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the

80:43league get new episodes of the NFL report Monday through Friday all season long listen to the NFL report podcast on the

80:50iHeart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts the new NFL season is here and you should be listening

80:56to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61 it is in the name NFL daily you'll have fresh content

81:03in your feed every day all season long that game-winning drive maybe it's Herbert maybe it's Gino maybe it's Mahomes we'll have

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The NFL Report: Is Drake Maye Back? + Packers Dismantle Bears

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The Insiders Podcast: Hall of Famer Mike Ditka passes away at 86 + Lamar Jackson out, Jayden Daniels back

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