PodcastFrom NFL: The Insiders

Brett & Trevor Break Down the BIGGEST Week 1 Games | NFL Pro Show

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 12 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 11, 2026

Published

Fri, September 11, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Patrick MahomesBaker MayfieldBo NixC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCam WardCourtland SuttonDavante AdamsDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryFernando MendozaJavonte WilliamsJayden DanielsJeremiyah Love

Player analysis

Player insights

Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection55:06

The speaker expresses confidence in Baker Mayfield as a quarterback, suggesting that if his receiving corps (specifically Emeka) is healthy, the Buccaneers will be successful against the Bengals.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection43:04

Bo Nix is a polarizing player; while he has the ability to win big games, he is also volatile. The narrative that he is a spectacular fourth-quarter quarterback is largely driven by two specific games against the Eagles and Giants, where the defense played exceptionally well. Outside of those two games, the Broncos' fourth-quarter offense was well below average, and he is not currently a top-12 NFL quarterback.

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C.J. Stroud

PositiveUsage7:09

C.J. Stroud thrives in rhythm and structure when under center, evidenced by his 8.6 yards per attempt under center compared to 6.9 in shotgun; he nearly tripled his EPA per dropback under center, making him more comfortable turning his back to the defense to locate space than operating from the gun.

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Caleb Williams

NegativeMatchup32:58

The Week 1 matchup against the Panthers serves as a critical test for Caleb Williams and the Bears' offensive line, specifically regarding their ability to handle pressure against a revamped Carolina defensive front.

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Cam Ward

NegativeBust61:09

The hosts express reservations about Cam Ward being too loose with the football, noting that he needs to improve his ball security before they can fully trust him.

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Courtland Sutton

NegativeUsage50:42

Courtland Sutton is noted as a high-target player for the Denver Broncos offense, though his role may be complemented by Jalen Waddell.

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Davante Adams

PositiveValue50:11

Davante Adams is considered the best option among receivers over 30 for a team making a postseason run. Even if he is primarily a 'touchdown merchant' in the red zone, his ability to create separation for Matthew Stafford makes him incredibly valuable for a contending team.

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David Montgomery

PositiveRole5:53

The Texans acquired David Montgomery to improve their early-down run game, which was a league-low in success rate last year; his ability to generate yards after contact is expected to stabilize the offense and prevent the team from being forced into predictable passing situations in second-and-long.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection57:29

The speaker remains a believer in Derrick Henry, stating that he 'still has it' as part of a strong Ravens offense.

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Fernando Mendoza

PositiveBreakout61:58

The hosts express optimism about Fernando Mendoza's potential, citing his mobility and ability to handle drop-back passing from under center during the preseason.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveUsage29:30

Javonte Williams showed high efficiency in Dallas, rushing between the tackles 60.7% of the time (9th highest) and averaging 4.8 yards per carry on inside runs (7th most), while totaling 104 rushing yards over expected.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveBreakout69:08

Jayden Daniels is noted for his impressive rookie season and his ability to take over games with his playmaking, which the hosts believe is a factor in the win probability models for the Commanders.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveRole67:24

Jeremiah Love is noted as part of a Cardinals offensive roster that is considered strong despite the team's quarterback situation.

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Jordan Love

PositiveProjection67:18

The hosts suggest that if Jordan Love were on the Cardinals' roster, the team would be a legitimate wildcard contender due to the quality of the surrounding offensive talent.

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Josh Allen

NegativeProjection56:50

Josh Allen is capable of a 'superhuman performance' that could potentially overcome the Texans' defense, which is described as potentially the best in the NFL.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeMatchup23:11

Brian Flores's defensive scheme, specifically his quarters fire zone, is designed to force quarterbacks like Justin Herbert into mistakes by creating pressure and confusing coverage, even when wide-open windows exist.

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Justin Jefferson

NegativeUsage23:23

Justin Jefferson may see fewer direct targets against the Packers' quarters-heavy defense, as he is frequently used as a decoy or distraction when aligned in the slot to open up space for teammates on concepts like 'dagger' and 'mills'.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeMatchup20:07

The Cowboys face a challenge in generating pressure on Kyler Murray before he can deliver deep passes against their quarters coverage looks.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue50:39

Mike Evans is expected to remain a strong presence for his team, though he will likely need significant support from the rest of the roster to be effective.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeUsage44:57

Patrick Mahomes may have a lower average depth of target (aDOT) this season as the Chiefs look to mitigate pressure and blitzes. The team is expected to lean more into yards-after-catch (YAC) opportunities, utilizing playmakers like Kenneth Walker, Emmitt Johnson, and Brashard Smith. In 2025, 56.8% of Mahomes' passing yards came from YAC, and the team is better equipped with skill players to continue this approach.

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PositiveProjection65:32

The hosts express confidence in Patrick Mahomes' health and ability to perform, picking the Chiefs to win despite the Broncos' defensive presence.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveValue49:49

Terry McLaurin is viewed as having the most left in the tank among receivers over 30. While the Commanders are not expected to be a postseason team, McLaurin is a prime candidate to be traded mid-season to a contender, potentially becoming a key asset for a team like the Houston Texans.

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Trey McBride

PositiveRole67:24

Trey McBride is highlighted as a key component of a Cardinals offensive roster that is described as good, featuring an improved offensive line and quality receivers.

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Tyler Allgeier

PositiveRole9:57

Tyler Allgeier is highlighted as a valuable addition for the Cardinals, capable of providing consistent, on-schedule carries that help the offense maintain rhythm and complement the passing game.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

859

0:00The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted.

0:04There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.

0:07I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast.

0:10Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.

0:17Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:23The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.

0:29It is in the name NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.

0:35That game-winning drive. Maybe it's Herbert. Maybe it's Gino.

0:37Maybe it's Mahomes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape.

0:44Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game.

0:49Listen to NFL Daily. On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:54Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.

1:00The league's newest podcast, The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.

1:04It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players, too.

1:10Join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.

1:15Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.

1:19Listen to the NFL Report Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:25All right, sickos, welcome back to the NFL Pro Podcast.

1:27This is everything that you need to know heading into week one.

1:31The schedule is set. We know which games we want to highlight.

1:35Here's everything that you need to know for every single team.

1:38How you doing? Week one is here, which means so is NFL Pro.

1:42I'm saying, bro. I'm happy, bro. I'm lit, bro.

1:44Let's lock in. Let's reset. Take a deep breath.

1:47Let's go. I'm Trevor Sykema. That is Brett Coleman, and we're going to run through every single game that we've got here

1:54in week one, but we're going to spend a little bit of extra dedicated time on some of them to break them down at a much deeper level.

2:02Brett, before we get into all of that, I've got a question for you.

2:06I was talking with Andrew Siciliano a couple of days ago, and I want to know the answer.

2:12Which one's a bigger liar? The preseason or week one?

2:14You actually tell me which one lies to you more every single NFL season.

2:19I honestly think it's week one. Just crazy stuff always happens week one.

2:23I know. Some of these games, by the way, we're going to pick all these games, obviously, and there's win probabilities represented by percentages.

2:30We're going to get into that. There were some I was looking at, and I was like, are you sure?

2:36Right. And maybe that's me just kind of drinking the Kool-Aid on some of these underdogs here, but I think week one

2:42is so notorious for having weird stuff happen that even the percentages just don't – I don't trust it.

2:48I'll say that. I've been traumatized too many times by week ones in the past.

2:52Dude, I'm the same, and I'm kind of leaning into that a little bit.

2:56We're going to get into not just picking the games, but how much confidence we have in every single game that we're picking.

3:03And all I'll say is I got some confidence in some teams that you might not expect, so we're going to get

3:10to that a little bit later in the show.

3:13But I want to start things out with a heavy hitter.

3:16I want to talk about Bills-Texans because this is a premier matchup, right?

3:20These are playoff teams. The Bills have been so close to getting over the hump, winning an AFC Championship, potentially winning a

3:26Super Bowl for the last couple of years. What an opportunity.

3:29Have some fun. Play for each other. Find a way to get it done.

3:34When teams are so evenly matched, when they are so good, I think you've got to peel things back a little bit

3:40to actually find the X factors of what's going on here.

3:43So, Brett, I'll let you set the table here for this first matchup.

3:47Bills-Texans, where do you think sort of the X factor is, and where do you want to start this conversation?

3:53They brought in Dave Montgomery for a reason. I'll say that.

3:57This was a run game that was absolutely awful on early downs last year, and they just kept trying it over and over and over again.

4:04They called run plays on 54.4% of their first downs.

4:07The NFL average was about 50%. It doesn't seem like a big difference.

4:11It absolutely is a big difference. Hashtag establishing. Oh, yeah.

4:14They established the run all right. 28.4% first down rushing success rate, which was a league low.

4:19How's that for establishing it? They were just terrible at it.

4:22They led the league in second and long as a result, and the issue with that is if you're looking at C.J.

4:29Stroud's strengths as a quarterback, he really thrives when he's under center, and their under center rate dropped like a rock when

4:36they were in second and long because, of course, it did.

4:39You're going to be a pass-heavy team typically in second and long, which means you're going to be in gun a lot more.

4:46And if you're looking at C.J.'s splits of under center versus shotgun, went from 8.6 yards per attempt under center down to 6.9 in gun.

4:53He damn near tripled his EPA per drop back under center versus gun.

4:57He really thrives in terms of the rhythm and the structure of under center.

5:01He thrives in that. He loves hard play action fakes.

5:04He actually is better at turning his back to the defense and then whipping his eyes back around, locating space, attacking space.

5:11He's more comfortable doing that than he is just being in gun, which is not common for a young quarterback.

5:17Fakes the handoff, backs up deeper, now unloads. Jalen Knoll inside the 5.

5:20He's in the end zone! And so when you have that bad of a first down run game, and you're always in

5:27second and long, and you're always in gun, yeah, they were going to be a worse offense overall.

5:32So I look at what the Texans have done this offseason to rebuild their offensive line and bringing in Dave Montgomery, who's

5:39just better at getting yards after contact. Right. I have to imagine, you know, if they're even an average first down run

5:45game, the cascading effect on the rest of the Texans' offense could make them pretty potent.

5:50There's a couple of teams that I think went with that approach this offseason.

5:54Like, you mentioned the Texans obviously getting Dave Montgomery.

5:57Like, I think of Tyler Algier going to the Cardinals is another one.

6:01Obviously, they're hoping that Jeremiah Love is sort of their dynamic back.

6:05But Tyler Algier, like, he can get you three, four, five carries, right?

6:08And sometimes just something that's on schedule and expected can be enough or even maybe the word better is what I'm looking for.

6:15And so I think at that point with the Texans and being better in the run game, that's job number one for them.

6:22We know their defense is going to be elite, but you have to be more on schedule as a rushing attack to

6:29be able to complement the passing game a little bit more.

6:32On the other side of things, I want to talk about how the Bills are sort of going to defend the run

6:38here because I'm excited, but I'm a little nervous right off the bat here now that Jim Leonard is their defensive coordinator.

6:45I'm excited because Jim Leonard's an attacking style defense, right?

6:48And those are always pretty fun. Like, he's going to throw a lot of things at the offensive line.

6:54He's going to throw a lot of things at C.J.

6:57Stroud. But when it comes to overall run defense, I have my worries about how this roster is currently constructed because Sean

7:03McDermott was one of the longest tenured coaches that we had in the NFL before he got fired.

7:08It's been years of them stockpiling players, not just starters, but also depth players for that even front zone heavy defense.

7:15And the odd front attacking style defense that Leonard wants to run, again, I'm excited to see it.

7:20But I'm a little nervous about how it's going to be right out of the gate.

7:25You've got players like T.J. Sanders and Ed Oliver who are going to have to play that, like, 4-I or, you know,

7:31even sometimes, like, 2-I defensive interior type of alignment.

7:34And I'm not sure that, like, that's their best role.

7:37Like, Dwayne Carter kind of behind him. Again, like, I'm worried that these are all kind of three technique defensive tackles that you're putting in these different alignments.

7:45You're asking Deion Walker to, he's going to have to play nose at times.

7:50And he's a big, massive defensive lineman. But when you're big, I think there's pros and cons to play a nose tackle.

7:56The cons is that— Especially when you're tall, too.

7:59Yeah, that's the problem. He's so tall and he's going to lose leverage.

8:03Now, you know, they signed Greg Gaines. And Greg Gaines can be that nose tackle for you.

8:08But even in Tampa last year, like, he had good plays.

8:11But he also had some bad plays as well.

8:14So, I'm worried about this Bills defensive line that allowed five yards per carry to running backs last season, which was the third most in the NFL.

8:22They actually hit ball carriers at the line of scrimmage 47.8% of the time, which is fourth best in the NFL.

8:28But allowed almost four yards per contact after that.

8:31Still running hard, dragging tacklers down inside the 10.

8:33Like, I think Sanders is an attacking defensive lineman.

8:36I think Oliver is an attacking defensive lineman. Dwayne Carter, these guys that I mentioned.

8:40But when it comes to those early downs, really defending the run, I get a little bit worried here with Buffalo.

8:47And where the Josh Allen versus Texans defense side of the matchup is where a lot of our eyeballs are going to

8:53go, I think each side of the ball is going to get theirs a little bit.

8:58That's going to be the heavyweight fight that a lot of people are paying attention to.

9:03But it might be who has the higher floor against their weakness.

9:06The Texans run game versus the Bills run defense that I think could actually maybe be the differentiating factor here.

9:12So the stat that you mentioned, right? They were fourth best in terms of making contact with the running back at the

9:19line of scrimmage, but still allowing so many yards after contact that they gave up a lot on the ground.

9:25One of the interesting oddities of the Bills last season was that even though they allowed so many yards on the ground,

9:31they still dominated in time of possession. And they still had a bunch of games where they gave up like $1.70 plus

9:38and still won time of possession and still won those games.

9:41I think they went like 6-2 somewhere around there.

9:44I have to go dig for the actual numbers.

9:46But it was kind of this weird trend where they gave up so many explosive runs that it essentially affected them as

9:53if they gave up an explosive pass. And so they were able to get back on the field and let Josh Allen do his thing.

10:00And it didn't really hurt them because they could just go back to grinding clock.

10:05And so, yeah, they gave up a lot of run yards, but it didn't really hurt them in the macro sense.

10:11You look at how Houston matches up with them.

10:14And I don't necessarily think they're going to be ripping off explosive runs like, say, Bichon did in that game last year.

10:20I think it's going to be a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7 yards at a time.

10:25And if you can take away that time of possession advantage that Buffalo's really leaned on, now they don't really have anything left.

10:32And so that's what I kind of worry about for them.

10:36You know, it's not about can they stop the run.

10:39It's can they stop the 6-yard runs. Like, if they gave up 30, it's okay.

10:43Just Josh gets back on the field quicker. If they give up 6 and then 5 and then 6 again over and

10:50over and over, and you limit this to like 9 possessions per team, make it like a Panthers game, I don't like

10:56that for Buffalo, especially with the Texans defense. Yeah, a couple of things here to wrap this up before we go to the next game.

11:04Will Anderson specifically. We got a specific matchup here from NGS.

11:07He recorded 2.5 sacks in Week 12 in 2025 versus the Bills.

11:10Five of his eight pressures and one of those sacks came against right tackle Spencer Brown.

11:15So obviously he played well against Spencer Brown. Generated 41.7% quarterback pressure against Spencer Brown on 12 pass rush reps.

11:21So I think that matchup, that's going to be one to watch there.

11:25And then the Bills haven't beaten D'Amico Ryans in Houston since he became the head coach there.

11:30So can we get a Bills victory in Houston?

11:33You've got to get the ball out. If you do not, you are a dead duck against this defense.

11:38The next game we're going to touch on is the Packers and the Vikings.

11:43And we're going to be talking about the NFC North all year long.

11:46This is going to be a little cutthroat division in football.

11:50This is going to be a pretty meaty game preview here.

11:53We're going to get pretty granular with this and one of why we think the result is going to be what we envision it's going to be.

12:01So Brett, I'll let you start again here with this one.

12:04What are you focusing on with this game? It's a defensive identity shift in Green Bay.

12:09And they kind of have to because, again, Mike is out.

12:12He's not going to be back for a while.

12:15And so it's really going to be on Jonathan Gannon to figure out, like, how can I make something out of nothing, so to speak?

12:22Not that they're completely bereft of talent. We love McKinney.

12:25We love Edge. But Micah not being there means you have to get creative.

12:30And if you're looking at the style that Gannon has typically employed, he really does love quarters.

12:35It's a really, really important coverage. And the Packers are going to be running it a lot this year.

12:40They didn't necessarily run it a lot last year under Jeff Halfley.

12:44Halfley really liked a lot more cover three and cover two.

12:47If you're looking at just percentage of quarters usage, they were only about 14.4% of their snaps using quarters.

12:53That's not very high. That's 10th lowest in the league.

12:56You compare that to Jonathan Gannon, who has been top five in quarters usage rate in three of the last five seasons

13:02in which he's been either a DC or a head coach.

13:06And it makes sense why their quarters usage rate went up to 35% this preseason.

13:10That's damn near a 20% jump, right? So I expect a lot of quarters in this game, especially because they're going to try to limit explosives.

13:18But remember, just because it's a coverage that in general is good against explosives doesn't mean there aren't certain concepts that are

13:24kind of designed to get explosive plays against this type of defensive structure.

13:28I think that a villain arc that Jonathan Gannon could have here is, you know how Two-Face, the Batman villain, just like flips a coin everywhere, right?

13:36I mean, if he's got a really good squad where like quarters are going really well, he could just sit on the field and just flip the quarter.

13:45Just flicking it, just staring across. Just staring at the other team's offense coordinator.

13:49You know we're running. You know we're running. But I also think that because of the way that this is set up

13:55with Gannon running as much quarters as he does, it might be a successful day for the Minnesota Vikings, but not a big Justin Jefferson day.

14:03And that might sound crazy to some people when they think, okay, well, hold on.

14:07If it's going to be a great Vikings day through the air and in the passing game, Justin Jefferson's got to be going off.

14:15Well, not necessarily because they're probably going to want Justin Jefferson to be on the line of scrimmage in the slot because

14:21it's going to be these mills and dagger concepts.

14:24They're going to be able to create a lot of space.

14:27And I think that if Justin Jefferson is aligned in that spot, he's often going to be actually the decoy for these routes and for these concepts.

14:35The numbers kind of back that up as well.

14:38Jefferson hasn't caught a pass on the ball in the slot versus quarters since 2023.

14:422023. So on a Tuesday in the fall. So don't tempt this.

14:46We've got that data. But like when they are attacking quarters, they're using Jefferson as the bait.

14:51They're using him as the disguise. If you are on the ball in the slot against quarters, you're taken off, right?

14:57You are going to be somebody who is going to get deep down the field.

15:02Jefferson's doing nothing against quarters, but it's not that he's doing nothing when he's on the ball in the slot.

15:08But Jefferson recorded an 8.3 explosive play per route rate when on the ball in the slot.

15:13That was ninth highest among wide receivers. So he gets usage when he's on the ball in the slot, just not against quarters.

15:19So for that, let's bring in these two concepts, mills and dagger.

15:23All right. I first want to take a look at this dagger concept here.

15:27All right. What we're looking at is it's not true quarters coverage here, but this is quarter quarter half.

15:33So we're going to be attacking the quarters side of the field with these two receivers.

15:38Now the dagger concept is going to involve the inside player, vertical route here to clear out this defender and then having

15:44a deep dig route underneath to open up this as the throwing window.

15:48That is the idea here with this concept. This player right here, it's not Justin Jefferson, but I think that it can

15:55be Justin Jefferson because if he were on the line of scrimmage, that tells you that this guy's getting vertical.

16:01And when Justin Jefferson's getting vertical, this guy's got to pay attention.

16:04This guy's got to pay attention. Heck, maybe even this guy's got to pay attention because it's Justin Jefferson.

16:10So when you get all those eyeballs, you're really going to be able to open up things over the middle.

16:16And that's exactly what happens here. You have the clear out route.

16:19It takes that, that inside safety defender all the way up the field and boom, there's the throwing window wide open right over the middle of the field.

16:28And it ends up going for a touchdown. So that's the dagger concept where I think that Jefferson can be utilized as

16:34that vertical player that's clearing things out. This is a Mills concept.

16:38So we're going up against cover two here. So again, it's not quite quarters, but the idea is the same.

16:44What we have here is it's a dig route that's going over the middle.

16:48And then we're combining that with a post route over top of it.

16:52Now, the idea here is that we're opening up the deep route, not the dig route over the middle of the field.

16:58That becomes a distraction route. So I can see Justin Jefferson's the one who's actually running the post here on this play.

17:05This is Justin Jefferson, but I could see him being that player that's going over the middle of the field.

17:11Because once again, if this is Justin Jefferson right here as the decoy or distraction player, this guy's got to pay attention.

17:17This guy's got to pay attention. This guy, this guy, everybody's focusing in on Justin Jefferson coming over the middle of the field right there.

17:25So in quarters, this guy would get more aggressive here.

17:28This player would be looking to pick him up as he's crossing the field.

17:32And that would open things up here for the post route.

17:35Now, Jefferson runs this extremely well, and it opens wide open for him against cover two.

17:40Against quarters, it'd be a little bit tighter of a throw.

17:43But as you guys can see, this is the space here that opens up with that route concept because this player was

17:50too distracted by this guy who's coming over the middle of the field.

17:54And it opened things up for Jefferson to be able to run that post route to find that open space.

18:00So those are the two concepts that I think can really work against cover for and against what Jonathan Gannon wants to do.

18:06It's just a matter of where Justin Jefferson is.

18:09I think he could be an excellent decoy player, and it might be a big day for the Vikings and for some

18:16other receiver, but they'll take that and Jefferson's going to take that all day if it means that they're getting a win.

18:22So when Jefferson is a part of those concepts and when he is the player who is lined up in the slot

18:29on the ball, the explosive play percentage with the Vikings having Jefferson at that alignment is 15.7%.

18:34All other alignments, 13.1. So clearly using Jefferson and that role, even if it's just a decoy, it works.

18:39It does not have to just go to him.

18:42Vikings gain nearly a full yard more 0.9 with Jefferson on the ball in the slot.

18:47So there are so many numbers that point to when he is in that alignment, he is the player who the defense

18:53has to respect because he's getting vertical and you have to pay attention to Jefferson.

18:58Jefferson was getting vertical, but it opens things up underneath and in different areas of the field against that specific coverage that Jonathan Gannon loves to run.

19:06And, you know, going back to that Micah injury again, I know Packers fans are tired of hearing about how much it affects them, but it really does.

19:14You know, the Packers were kind of guilty of using the rush as the coverage last year, right?

19:20Like they were able to kind of get away with not being awesome at corner because Micah was able to generate so

19:26much pressure and their defense really, really kind of fell off a cliff when he was not on the field.

19:32So if you're just looking at the splits of Parsons on the field versus Parsons off the field, time to throw was

19:39obviously faster when he was on the field because it had to be their blitz rate went down by about 8%.

19:45Again, doesn't sound like a lot. That is a chasm in the NFL.

19:49Their pressure percentage went up. Their time to pressure fell by almost not even almost more than two tenths of a second

19:55and success percentage allowed went down roughly seven to eight percent as well.

19:59Like he is so monumentally important to them and they got away with so much on the back end just because Micah existed without him on the field.

20:07I'm not sure they have a great answer for getting to Kyler Murray before Kyler Murray can unload deep down the field against these quarters looks.

20:15Yeah. Parsons is a change the math type of a player.

20:19Those are the most valuable players that we have in the game.

20:22You know, whether you're taking up an extra gap, whether you're forcing an extra player to stay in and block, like whatever

20:29that looks, whether you're taking multiple eyes in coverage, change the math type of players are the ones that are the most valuable and most impactful.

20:36And I know on the other side of things, I don't even want to talk about Brian Flores because he's he's a math guy himself.

20:44The mad scientist. Yeah. A lot of times the math is, oh, I have 11 players.

20:49That's 11 players that I can blitz at any point in time.

20:52The math is, f*** you, we're the Vikings. I love watching this team play, man.

20:57And I need people to understand not just the numbers, but also like how this works and why it works.

21:03Because you'd think teams would just like have their typical blitz answers against Minnesota and like they wouldn't be able to do this.

21:09But like just the way they call these blitzes is so hilarious and it's so effective.

21:14Even after years of doing it, they had a 37% blitz rate out of two high.

21:19The NFL average is 12%. They're the only team above 24%.

21:22Like they're just not like anybody else at all.

21:25So here is how these blitzes work. This is a pick that they got against the Chargers last year.

21:31Remember, Justin Herbert, great quarterback. Hard to fool him.

21:33Hard to really make him force him into mistakes sometimes.

21:36But that's what Brian Flores does. So they start off with what's called kind of a dirty bunch here to the field.

21:43So it's three guys, you know, relatively close to each other.

21:46And the Vikings are in a quarters look. That means this corner here, he's responsible for what's called the vertical of number one.

21:53So if number one here, we're counting outside in one, two, three.

21:56If the vertical of number one goes deep, the corner's taken that.

22:00The safety is responsible for the vertical of number two.

22:03So if the number two runs deep, that's his guy.

22:06You got Harrison Smith here. He's responsible for the vertical of number three.

22:10How is that possible? He's on the other side of the field.

22:13Well, we call this a poach technique. The Fangio world likes to call it tricks, T-R-I-X.

22:18So you got one, two, three, all accounted for.

22:21And then this corner backside is going to be manned up.

22:24Not all zone coverages means everybody's in zone. Sometimes you have one guy who's in man while everybody else is in zone.

22:31We call it match zone principles. So that's what this look is like pre-snap.

22:35The actual pressure here, right? We have three guys kind of doing a contain rush to the field.

22:40They're picked up by five blockers here. So it's three on five.

22:44They were really worried about getting overloaded to the field.

22:47You have this linebacker. His only job is to pick the inside hip of this tackle in order to free up the edge to loop around inside.

22:55Ideally, he gets unblocked. But, you know, worst case scenario, you get an edge matched up with a running back.

23:01That's a winnable matchup. So that's the entire goal here.

23:04We have three guys drawing attention. We have the pick on the tackle to free up the one-on-one and really make it a one on a running back.

23:12That's the pressure. That's the coverage. This motion here, we're going to talk about the changes in quarters rules here in response to motion.

23:19As this ball is snapped, we get a late change of who's the number one and who's the number two.

23:25So the rules still apply, right? The corner up top, he's carrying vertical number one.

23:30The safety up top, his number two is pass blocking.

23:33So he's now free to roam and just go find work.

23:36Harrison Smith in the corner down bottom. Number one and number two switch.

23:40So the final number two, he's picking that up vertical.

23:43And the final number one, the corner's picking that up vertical.

23:46We do get pressure on Herbert. He's now panicking.

23:49The key here are the hook droppers. We have two hook droppers in a quarters fire zone.

23:54That means two guys are responsible for basically the entire field 10 yards and under.

23:58That's the weakness to this coverage is you're going to have a lot of space over the middle and underneath.

24:04You need really rangy linebackers to pull it off.

24:07Now, because they do get pressure, remember the pressure oftentimes is the coverage in this defense.

24:11Herbert's kind of scrambling around. He's trying to find something.

24:14Desperation heave gets picked by one of those hook droppers.

24:17That is the general basis of this coverage is we're going to force quarterbacks into mistakes.

24:22Even when we do have wide open windows on the field, we're trusting that we can get to you before you can beat us.

24:29We're going to stop deep pass attempts by really just eliminating your ability to stay in the pocket long enough to throw them.

24:36And if you can beat us over the middle quickly, great.

24:39You know, tip of the cap. We'll make you do that 12 times in a row to march down the field and score.

24:46Really, the only offense that I've seen do that to Minnesota repeatedly is one coordinated by Ben Johnson, who really likes to lean into that.

24:54He's going to go under center. He's going to do hard play action fakes.

24:58He's going to put even more stress on those linebackers because not only do they have all that space to cover underneath,

25:04now they have to step up and play the run and get back to their landmarks.

25:09It's a lot easier said than done. Most teams are not disciplined enough to do that for a 10-play drive when they're

25:16getting blitzed on half of those dropbacks. And that's what makes this defense so fun.

25:20And it's also why they're basically the only team that plays defense this way.

25:24You know, listening to you talk there and just the more that I've watched Brian Flores over the years, the most important

25:31player on the field when it comes to facing a Brian Flores defense is probably the guy who's calling protections.

25:37Like it's either the center, if that's the center's job or if it's the quarterback's job.

25:42They have to be on their P's and Q's.

25:44They have to be so detailed in where they think the pressure is going to come from, how the offensive line or

25:51any of the blockers are going to sort of rotate, how they're going to handle it because you're right.

25:57That is how Brian Flores wants to play defense.

25:59He wants to attack you. And if you can't neutralize it up front, sometimes the rest doesn't matter.

26:05Cowboys and Giants. Any NFC East matchup is always one that's going to have a lot of eyeballs on it.

26:11There's always a ton of excitement for the Cowboys, but there's a ton of excitement for this new era for the Giants as well.

26:18Brett, I know people are excited long-term about the Giants.

26:21Should they be week one? What do we think here with the Giants and Cowboys?

26:25I have my reservations, man. And it's not because I don't like some of the talent, right?

26:30Like I love the Arvel Reese pick, the Carter pick last year.

26:34Taking Francis Balanoa, top 10, I thought was a very prudent move.

26:37He could play tackle, but he's going to be a guard for them.

26:41And I think he's going to pay dividends. There's so much to like about this team.

26:46With the coaching staff that was assembled, it's all of the guys that we have criticized over and over and over again.

26:52For years, in terms of not just play calling, but like macro management of a game.

26:57Sure. Like how many times were we just screaming at the TV, watching the Ravens, you know, when they were kicking a

27:04field goal when they shouldn't have or punting when they shouldn't have or not giving the ball to Henry when they should have.

27:11Not letting Lamar cook when they should have. And it's just how can you have all of those coaches in the same

27:17room and be confident in the product? I kind of have to see it to believe it at this point.

27:23I'll say that you're hoping that it's just a big brain trust, right?

27:27And that a lot of those guys with all of their NFL experience is going to come to elevate both sides of that team.

27:34One area that has to be elevated no matter what, bar none, is the Giants defensive line.

27:39Because the season almost goes as the Giants defensive line goes.

27:42Because it's a lot of the same players minus Dexter Lawrence, which is not really the sentence that you want to say, right?

27:49You never want to go like, oh, the defensive line needed to be a lot better than it was last year.

27:56They got rid of Dexter Lawrence. That's not an addition by subtraction.

27:59That's quite literally just a subtraction. Might be a double subtraction.

28:02Maybe it's a division. We're going all the way to that point.

28:06When you look at the Giants last season, allowed 2.0 yards before contact.

28:10That was the most in the NFL. Allowed 3.3 yards after contact per carry.

28:14That was the fifth most in the NFL. And allowed 56.6 rush EPA per play, most in the NFL.

28:20I am also excited about the speed that they have at, I'll just call it outside linebacker, right?

28:25Because it could be Abdul Carter. It could be Arvel Reese.

28:28It could be Brian Burns. It could be Kayvon Thibodeau.

28:31Those guys are awesome. And I think specifically with Carter and Arvel Reese, you have a lot of flexibility for those guys to just be apex predators.

28:39Be hunters, right? Go hunt the football wherever it's going to go.

28:43You only get to do that if your interior defensive line can hold up.

28:47Because if your interior defensive line is similar to what it was the previous season, well, guess what?

28:52Now Arvel Reese has to sit at inside linebacker at all times, and he basically can't leave the tackle box.

28:58You might have to do the same thing with Abdul Carter as well.

29:02The linebacker level is going to be a, I think, telltale sign of how good this defense is based on how much freedom those guys have.

29:10And you don't get that freedom unless you eat your vegetables, unless you defend the run the way that you need to.

29:16And I'm worried about that with the Giants right off the bat because it's largely a lot of the same players that

29:23they had last year that's going to be trying to do the same thing.

29:27And it's not like the Cowboys can't run the ball, right?

29:30You know, Javante had a kind of a career resurgence in Dallas.

29:34And if you're looking at the types of runs that they're going to be using, a lot of it is stuff between the tackles, right?

29:41They rushed between the tackles, or rather Javante Williams rushed between the tackles 60.7% of the time on his carries last season.

29:48That was ninth highest among all running backs that had at least 100 carries.

29:52So like they pound the rock inside over and over and over again.

29:56When rushing inside, Williams averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

29:59That was seventh most among that same group of running backs.

30:02And he totaled 104 rushing yards over expected, which was the sixth most.

30:06So while they didn't have the highest overall run pass rate, when they did run the ball, it was inside, physical north-south.

30:12And in particular, also, side note, a lot of it was from shotgun.

30:16Javante was a more effective rusher from the gun than under center, which is not common.

30:21But he was really good at just kind of picking his way through traffic, you know, seeing who won, who lost up front.

30:28Not as effective as like prime Le'Veon, but like stylistically very similar.

30:31And when you have that kind of complimentary threat in the backfield, and you're just running between the tackles over and over

30:38and over again at a diminished DT room, to say the least.

30:42I'm nervous, man. Like, and then you also have to deal with CD and Pickens and Dak.

30:47Yeah, we didn't even talk about the actual strength of this team, because as you can tell on the show, we're obviously...

30:53That's the side dish, man. Right, we're talking... We obviously are going to talk about like the guys who you want us

31:00to talk about from like the quarterback position and things like that.

31:03But like football, the reason why it's the best game in the world is just how detailed it is.

31:09And like, yes, the big hitter, your star's got to play well.

31:13And we think the Cowboys stars are going to play well.

31:16But if Dak's cooking and the offensive line's playing at least decently well, which another interesting matchup of this one, the Cowboys

31:22offensive tackles specifically, you've got Terrence Steele and Tyler Guyton.

31:25I love the interior. Interior's rock solid. It's Tyler Smith, it's Tyler Booker, it's Cooper BB.

31:30Rock solid. But if you get one of those offensive tackles on islands too many times, a Kayvon Thibodeau, a Brian Burns,

31:37or Abdul Carter, or Arvel Reese, that might be a way that you disturb old Dak there in the backfield.

31:43So that could be an X-factor for the Giants in a matchup that we're not exactly highlighting a lot of X-factors for the Giants here.

31:50That's, I think, how you can maybe have a major difference-making part on this game.

31:54But I think it's too much Cowboys. It's going to be too much Cowboys offense.

31:59I think the defense could be a lot better with Christian Parker.

32:03I'm a big fan of him now being the defense coordinator in Dallas and specifically what the personnel is going to allow him to do.

32:10And I think that we see that week one.

32:13So, you know, I'm thinking that the Cowboys should be pretty big favorites in this game.

32:17Yeah, next-gen stats has the Cowboys' win probability at 57%, which seems low, and then you realize that's 57% on the road.

32:24Yeah, right. So if this was in Dallas, this would be north of 60%, in my opinion.

32:29And I agree with that, by the way. I do too.

32:32If we're just trying to just mirror with our hands behind our back the whole time, we're at their mercy.

32:38You know what I'm saying? He knows where the ball's going.

32:42You got to use your feet, which you got good feet, but you don't want to have to use only that.

32:48Use your weapons. Maybe the weirdest game of the weekend, because I don't necessarily know what to expect.

32:53Bears-Panthers, a reckoning again on that Bears-Panthers trade that produced both quarterbacks at their respective destinations, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams.

32:59That's true. It's the trade bowl once again. Played at least twice, I think, since that trade happened.

33:05But both teams are just so different now compared to where they were at when that trade happened.

33:10And both teams just win in such uniquely odd ways, I guess is the best way to put it.

33:16I don't really know what to expect with this one.

33:19The heart palpitations continue. Would you have expected anything else from the Bears?

33:23This is a little bit of a toss-up here for me in terms of who's going to win this game in week one.

33:29But I am going to take a little bit more of a macro-level approach because I think that this game, whatever the

33:36result is, is going to be a good indicator of what we can expect from these groups for at least the first

33:43half of the season, maybe the entire season. And that is when the Panthers' defensive line goes up against the Chicago Bears' offensive line.

33:50The Bears' offensive line was really, really good last season.

33:53Chicago, 31.2 pressure rate allowed last season. That was top 10 in the NFL.

33:57They were really good when it came to impact run blocking as well.

34:01This is just a really, really good offensive line unit for the Chicago Bears last year.

34:05So this is the strength of their team. For the Panthers, their defensive line was a major weakness of their team.

34:1226.6 team pressure rate in 2025. That was the second lowest in the NFL.

34:16They bring in Jalen Phillips, which is great. They needed to allocate a lot of their free agency money to this part of their team specifically.

34:24So you bring in Jalen Phillips, and you feel pretty good about it because, okay, it's going to be Jalen Phillips.

34:30It's going to be Nick Scorton. It's going to be Derek Brown and Prince Uman Mielan and all these guys, but Nick Scorton now out for the year.

34:38He had the most pressures on the team last year at 32, and unfortunately he's not going to be a part of that anymore.

34:45But is Jalen Phillips sort of enough for them?

34:48I think that's the big question. If we get out of this game, and it's a lot of the same thing.

34:54Panthers couldn't get after Caleb Williams. They couldn't beat the Bears' offensive line.

34:58No pressure generated. You get a little bit worried.

35:01You get worried that it wasn't going to be enough for Carolina, or at least that the burn was going to be

35:07slower than you wanted it to for this team to really turn into a good pass-rushing unit.

35:12And then on the flip side, I think the Chicago Bears, which very much needs their offensive line to be just as

35:19good as it was last year, if not better, that remains.

35:22Touchdown! Touchdown Bears! Now, if the result is different, let's say Carolina's defensive line does look a lot better.

35:28A lot of those young guys did take the next step.

35:31Jalen Phillips looks fantastic for this team. The linebacker level looks even better now that Devin Lloyd is there.

35:37If that looks good against Chicago's offensive line... Brand new team, then.

35:40Now we flip the scripts. Now we go, okay, this is Euro Evero defense, has more talent than he has over the last three years.

35:48You feel pretty good about it for Carolina moving forward.

35:51And now on that flip side, you have to say, oh boy, hold on a second here.

35:56We had major question marks about the Chicago Bears' defense.

35:59We know that they're going to give up some points and some yards and some long drives.

36:04Now you're telling me their offensive line might be taking a step back from what it was last year?

36:10That's not a good sign for the Chicago Bears.

36:12So, I don't know exactly what the result is going to be, but I can tell you that there's going to be

36:19a pretty strong narrative one way or the other for both of these teams and both of these very passionate fan bases

36:25based on whatever the result is going to be of that matchup.

36:29But I think they want to end drives faster.

36:32Because if you're looking at how they won last year, it was by limiting total possessions per game.

36:37Because remember, this is a sport where there's a finite number of points that could be scored per possession.

36:43So if there's less possessions in a game, that means there's less points in a game, which means each point matters more.

36:49And if they could just get a takeaway, which they were excellent at getting a takeaway, especially in the third quarter, right?

36:56After game plans are kind of thrown out the window, now we're just playing football.

37:00They were so good at getting pivotal turnovers in the third quarter, keeping games tight, limiting possessions.

37:05And they did that by just kind of not breaking on defense.

37:09They had the fourth most plays per drive against them on defense, 6.3.

37:13That's a lot of plays per drive. But they were second fewest in terms of total drives faced.

37:18So again, you're going to get down there. You're going to score on them.

37:22Just not a lot of points because you don't have a lot of possessions.

37:26And if they can just get one takeaway, they're going to keep it close enough where they can turn that takeaway into a win.

37:33It's how they won the NFC South, honestly. Like their total metrics, not great, but their win-loss record, half decent because they just needed that one extra play.

37:42It's this style of football that it only takes a little bit of luck for you to take that a mile.

37:48You know, sometimes, yeah, like you're saying, like if you're in a shootout, it's going to take a lot of luck in

37:55order for you to really be able to keep up with other teams that maybe you'd be punching above your weight class for.

38:01But the Panther style of play won them a division, albeit below 500 in a record.

38:06But it's because they were able to let luck be a big factor when things went their way.

38:11And I just want to say, like, a lot of times, like, luck is like this taboo word in football.

38:17Like, people go like, oh, if you use luck or if you bring up the word luck, you're trying to discredit or

38:24discount, like, what a team is doing. Every team in the NFL needs luck.

38:28Every Super Bowl winner has luck. Do they have talent?

38:31Sure, but they also have luck. Whether it's health, whether it's the ball bouncing their way, there is something involved because there

38:38is part of this game that no matter how much you try to control, there's a little bit that always exists that you can't.

38:45And the result of that is either lucky or unlucky.

38:48Luck does not discredit how good your team may be and how good they execute.

38:52It's just a part of the game. Hey, the bottom line is, we just fight.

38:57We don't know how to do anything else, but just keep fighting.

39:00And we always finish because that's who we are.

39:03I mean, you could argue that there was a dynasty built off of luck in Kansas City.

39:08Not to say that they only won because of luck.

39:11Like, it's okay, Chiefs fans. Like, we can have a grown-up conversation about this.

39:15They were an excellent team. One of the best teams of the modern era that also happened to have a couple high-leverage moments that went their way.

39:23They were a little bit lucky, and they were able to seize on that opportunity over and over and over again.

39:29Like, they were a team, you give them an inch, they'll take a mile, right?

39:34I mean, just a couple years ago, that was a team that, when they got to the Super Bowl against the Eagles, looked woefully undergunned.

39:41It's intercepted by Zach Bong! But along the way, in the regular season that year, had multiple moments of just outright luck.

39:48Like, they played against the Raiders and they dropped the snap.

39:51They had a field goal blocked in Denver that enabled them to win that game.

39:56Like, just stuff happened with the Chiefs that can only be explained by luck, but it's the truly great teams that are

40:02able to then turn luck into championships because of how good they are.

40:06Let's be great, doll! Let's be great! Let's be us!

40:09Yeah, you gotta take advantage of luck, which is, I think, like, seizing the opportunity when you get lucky, that is something that, obviously, the great teams do.

40:17Yeah. And some people would argue that's what Denver did last year, right?

40:21Like, they were a team that they won a lot of one-possession games, they kind of out-chiefs'd the Chiefs in some ways,

40:28and, you know, they unfortunately got really unlucky late in the year with a quarterback injury that, I don't know about you,

40:34I think if Bo Nix was healthy, they probably would have beat the Patriots and gone to the Super Bowl and maybe

40:41been more competitive against Seattle than New England was.

40:44So sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're just flat-out unlucky, and it ruins a very promising season.

40:48Now we have these two teams with history of both luck and bad luck recently facing off on Monday night.

40:54And I gotta say, I wanna start off by dispelling a rumor that I accidentally played into last year.

41:00This rumor was, Bo Nix is a tremendous fourth-quarter quarterback, and that, you know, this team would be awful for three quarters,

41:06then turn it on in the fourth quarter, and it was all because of Bo Nix, and he was spectacular, and man,

41:13when Sean Payton, like, really, you know, took the leash off and let Bo be Bo late in games, that's when they

41:20were at their best, and they should do that this year.

41:23Not necessarily. Again, I played into this because I remembered the Eagles game, and I remember the Giants game, which happened to

41:29be the only two games that they were actually trailing going into the fourth quarter the entire year when Bo was healthy.

41:36And those two games, especially because they happened early in the season, kind of stamped the Broncos' reputation for being this clutch fourth-quarter team.

41:43But if you look at the other 17 games that they were in, I think it was 17 games, I'm not a

41:50math major, they actually weren't that great of a fourth-quarter offense.

41:53And if you're looking at, like, just scoring drive percentages, right, like the percentage of your drives in which you're scoring quarter

41:59by quarter, the entire year, the first three quarters, they were 25th in scoring drive percentage.

42:04In the fourth quarter, they were ninth. But if you take out the Eagles and the Giants game, they dropped down to, again, well below average.

42:12So they had these two games where they were exceptional in the fourth quarter, those two games, mind you, that were only

42:18possible to win because the defense was playing its ass off in the fourth quarter.

42:23All right, you think back to that Jackson dart interception on third and five with five minutes to go.

42:29Like, if they don't throw a pick there and give the Broncos 19 yards to go to get a touchdown, do the

42:35Broncos even win that game and have this fourth-quarter reputation?

42:38Probably not. If the Eagles didn't go three and out, three and out, three and out in the fourth quarter, they were leading 17-3.

42:45Did the Broncos win that game? Probably not. So I would argue that, yes, Bo capitalized on the opportunity that was given

42:52to him, but if you're looking at a season-long sample size, they would not have had this fourth-quarter offensive reputation without those

42:58two games, and those two games wouldn't have happened without their defense being arguably the best in the league.

43:04Yeah, and I think that it's part of a much grander Bo Nix conversation where I feel like he's so polarizing because

43:11everyone just wants it to be very black and white of like, Bo Nix is awful, he's not a good quarterback, and

43:17like, Bo Nix is incredible, he's a super... And that's not what I'm saying, by the way.

43:22I do think, like, I like Bo, but we have to be realistic that like, being down 19-0 in the fourth quarter

43:29against the Giants and winning that game, that doesn't just mean Bo Nix is a top-12 quarterback in the NFL, which is

43:35what I think people are like, trying to force the issue on, and it's like, that's, that's, it's such a nuanced conversation

43:42and people refuse to have the nuance about it, and I'm not saying we should just take out the best moments for every single quarterback.

43:49I'm just saying the rest of the sample size is not like that, and that matters in the conversation.

43:55We can't just talk about two games. Yeah, volatility is important to recognize when it's there, and I think that the whole

44:01point of drafting a quarterback and getting a quarterback is to get a player who has the ability to win you big games.

44:08Does Bo Nix have the ability to win you big games?

44:12Yes. Is Bo Nix also volatile? Yes. Like, these two things both exist, and it's why there's this big counter of everybody

44:18who's on one side and the other of sort of this Bo Nix, what is he type of spectrum, and the truth

44:25is is that you kind of just don't know week in and week out, and that's the dangerous part of evaluation of

44:31sort of, you know, the second and beyond contract with him.

44:34That's when the conversation really gets tough, but is he a player who can win you big games?

44:40Yeah, absolutely. Mahomes is as well, and in this game, I'm going to be looking for how much Vance Joseph is going to blitz him, right?

44:48Like, how aggressive are they going to be with Mahomes coming off of the injury, testing sort of his mobility and what

44:54he's like because he's good when he is pressured, right?

44:57I mean, Mahomes has some of those magical moments outside of structure we've seen from any quarterback ever, let alone over the

45:04last couple of years, but when it comes to what he is in his current state, I don't know if he's going

45:10to be this super mobile quarterback right off the bat this season.

45:14The way that they're going to mitigate some pressure and blitzes to me is lower average depth of target stuff.

45:20I think we're going to have lower average depth of targets for the receivers, for specifically the running backs because now I

45:26believe they have the running backs to be able to do it, Kenneth Walker, Emmitt Johnson, Brashard Smith.

45:32I think that it's going to be a little bit more of a yards after catch type of a game.

45:38When you look at 2025, Mahomes had 56.8% of his total passing yards were yards after catch stuff.

45:43That was fourth most in the NFL. Over 2,000 of his passing yards were yards after catch numbers.

45:48That was fifth most in the NFL. So they were comfortable putting this into the game plan last year.

45:54I just think they've got better skill position players to do it.

45:57So for the longest time, Brett, I think that the thought was, oh, thank God he didn't pass it deep because he

46:04didn't really care about him dumping it off to the receivers or the running backs and even Travis Kelsey as he's gotten

46:11a little bit older because defenses were like, all right, who cares?

46:14We're just going to rally and tackle. Now they've got playmakers, better playmakers after the catch and I think that is going

46:21to be an interesting point of who's going to win this game.

46:24Cyrus Allen, wide receiver one. Are you with me?

46:27He's good. What can I say? He's good. I don't think I can go that far on the battlefield with you, brother,

46:33but I do think that he is going to be a major point of what's going to be a difference to this game.

46:40I do think the Broncos win this game though.

46:43I think it's going to be too much with the Broncos for the Chiefs in this one, although of course we know

46:50it's going to be close anytime that these teams match up against each other.

46:54When you play a team like that, it's never going to be perfect, but man, not once did we flinch.

47:00So we're going to finish off the show with a little bit of fan Q&A.

47:04You guys sent us literally hundreds of questions before we did our first episode here, and so we just have so many

47:11left over that we're just going to keep answering questions as the season goes on because you guys have given us a bunch of great ideas.

47:18The first one, this comes from all-time name, Spencer Fano, OT1.

47:22Hell yeah! It's great. I love it. Says, Seahawks defensive scheme has gotten way too little attention for being one of the best defenses by DVOA ever.

47:30They won the Super Bowl and dominated everyone not named Stavard, but I still haven't seen more than a few breakdowns of

47:36what McDonald does better than everyone else. I think Mike McDonald's superpower is not necessarily scheme.

47:41It's not even game planning. Obviously, he's great at those two things.

47:45I think it's teaching. I think his ability to teach this system to players in an era where there is limited practice time in the off-seasons.

47:52You know, guys aren't necessarily doing as many preseason snaps as they used to back in the day.

47:58There's also less preseason games now. The ability to still teach and install a very complex defense in a short period of

48:04time and have guys ready to go by week one, like that is special.

48:08There's an example of his teaching style that I always look back to.

48:12They have a very modular defense, right? So they can call any pressure in their system out of any look, whether whatever

48:19personnel grouping they're in, like whatever defensive look they're in, they can call a pressure out of anything and it's always just

48:25triggered with a word and that word being part of the call.

48:29And so how they install their pressures is they do what's called pressure stations in practice where they just take five trash cans, right?

48:36And they send guys through in stations and they line them up a certain way and they say, here's your word and

48:43they just teach you every single way to run the same pressure.

48:46Like each station is one type of pressure and it's just a great way to get it to stick and it's why

48:53they look like they never call the same thing twice even though they actually are.

48:57It's amazing. It's such a great call out by you because when it comes to that teaching aspect, everyone loves versatility.

49:03You want all these players to be versatile and to be able to do so many different things but it's so rare

49:10that you get players who can be versatile but also play fast.

49:14Everybody on the field almost operates the game as if they are the star player with everything that they can do and

49:20how confident they play while they do it. That is what is truly rare about the Seahawks defense amidst, of course, the

49:27great talent that they have in a lot of their individual players as well.

49:31Second question comes from Sam Teets, by the way.

49:34Shout out Sam Teets. He works with USA Football, the men's national flag team.

49:38We always love to shout out our flag team here on NFL Pro.

49:42Sam asks, which wide receivers over the age of 30 do you think have the most left in the tank to help teams make postseason runs?

49:49Obviously, you've got future Hall of Famers, Devontae, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Stephon Diggs is back in the mix again.

49:56Out of all of these receivers north of 30, who has the most gas?

50:00I think McLaurin's got the most left in the tank.

50:03I don't think Washington's a postseason team. So to answer the first part of the question, I think McLaurin's got a lot left in the tank.

50:11I think he's going to be great this year as long as he is fully healthy.

50:15I think we're going to see that quite a bit from him this season.

50:20But in terms of who's got the most left in the tank for postseason runs, I genuinely think that's Devontae Adams again.

50:26I think that Devontae, even if he is just the touchdown merchant that he was last season, if you can do that,

50:33dude, if you could be a player that you go, hey, in the red zone, find me separation and Matthew Stafford's going

50:39to find you, we're going to convert for six.

50:42Unbelievably valuable. Like, insanely valuable. So, he's not going to rack up the stats that he was when he was with prime

50:48Aaron Rodgers, when it was him and Aaron Rodgers as one of the best quarterback wide receiver doers in the NFL.

50:55But to me, that's probably the answer to that question.

50:58I think Matt Evans is going to be a strong presence as well, but they're going to need, I think, plenty around Mike.

51:05Sutton's obviously huge because he's had a lot of targets for this Denver Broncos offense, but I think that Jalen Waddell is really going to sort of help.

51:13I was going to say eat into that, but the word I'll use is compliment that a little bit more.

51:19all of that to say, I think the answer is Devontae Adams.

51:22Yes. You mentioned that McLaurin, and we at the moment don't think the Commanders are going to go on a run here.

51:29I don't even think Commanders fans think they're going to go on a run here.

51:33I think there's a world where Terry becomes a trade ship mid-season to a team that needs a receiver and is going on a run.

51:41Can I interest you in future Houston Texans legend Terry McLaurin?

51:44I wish it was Jaden Higgins. I do too.

51:47I just, I wish it was Jaden Higgins, but yeah, I mean, yeah, of course you can interest me in that if

51:53the Texans are rolling by the time we get to the deadline.

51:57Because at that point, then he really would be the receiver that has the most gas in the tank that can lead

52:03a team to a championship because my God, have you seen how the Texans receiver depth chart has fallen apart in the last two weeks?

52:11It's ridiculous. It's not great. It's not great. So there are 10 games that the win probability is between 40 and 60%

52:17for the two teams that are facing off. So for those 10 games, what we're going to do is pick the winner,

52:24but we're also going to rank them in terms of how confident we are in the picks and who's going to be winning the game.

52:31So your number one confidence game, you will get 10 points, right?

52:35Because there's 10 games this week. Number two, you'll get nine and so on and so forth.

52:40So we'll go through all 10 of those games.

52:43We'll pick the winner, but we'll also tell you where they are in our confidence list because we're going to keep score

52:49every single week and see, I don't know what the punishment is going to be at the end of the year.

52:56I feel like the fans need to be the ones to come up with what the winner wins or maybe...

53:01Just don't make me do a felony. That's all I ask.

53:05Misdemeanor, I'm okay. We have one rule. We have one rule here.

53:08So let's dig into it because we got a lot of things to talk about.

53:13First game, we already talked about a little bit on this show, Chicago and Carolina.

53:17Who are you picking in this game and then where is it in the confidence meter for you on that 10 list?

53:24So I'm picking Chicago in this one for a lot of the reasons we talked about, right?

53:29Not that I see the Panthers as like a fraudulent team.

53:32It's just they kind of won. They won in some funky ways last year and obviously the Bears won in some funky

53:39ways as well, but I felt like the method that the Bears win is a little bit more translatable going into this year compared to the Panthers.

53:47I fully accept I could be wrong about this.

53:49Maybe Phillips and Devin Lloyd are like the keys to making this thing work.

53:54We'll see. I just feel more confident at the moment in Chicago, which is why I put this at the seven spot in my competition.

54:01So if I get this one correct, I get seven points.

54:04Okay, so you're taking the Bears. I'm also taking the Bears.

54:08I also put this pretty high. This is in the nine spot for me.

54:12I'm getting nine points if I get this one right, which is, yeah, almost at the top.

54:17This is my second most highest confident game that I have here.

54:20And the reason why is because I just don't think Carolina can keep up.

54:25I don't think it's going to be perfect for either team.

54:28Week one rarely is, but I just don't think Carolina's got the horses to win the race when it comes to putting

54:34up the points against this Chicago Bears offense. Next game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals.

54:39Where are we here with Baker Mayfield traveling to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals?

54:45What do you think? So I actually disagreed with the win probability model here because the win probability model had, I think

54:51it was like 58% Bengals or something like that.

54:54Little man versus machine. I think the Bucs are too good in line of scrimmage to lose this game.

55:00You know, Emeka's practicing. Like, I think he's going to play.

55:03He's got that toe issue, which I'm assuming it's turf toe.

55:06If you injure a toe, it's like 90%. He can have mine.

55:10It's fine. To take my big toe. But I just, I look at what the Bucs are on the line of scrimmage

55:16and I compare that to even an improved, you know, Bengals roster on the defensive line.

55:21And I still, I just, I think they're going to struggle to block Tampa.

55:25And I really love Baker as a quarterback. I think if Emeka plays even 80%, I think they're going to be fine.

55:32I think Tampa wins that game. So where's this on the list for you though?

55:36Two. I'm not super confident, but I do think they win.

55:40Well, this is the game that we're flipped here.

55:42I'm taking the Bengals over the Bucs. Obviously hope you're right, but I'm going to take the Bengals.

55:48They're in the three spot for me, so I get three points if I get this one right with the Bengals.

55:54I have faith in their offensive lines, but more importantly than that, I'm really worried about the Buccaneers outside cornerbacks going up

56:00against, even though they've been on the injury report, Jamar Chase and T.

56:04Higgins. Like, that's something that gives me a lot of reservations.

56:07So this could definitely be a shootout type of a game, but with it being Cincinnati, I'll take the Bengals in this one.

56:14Buffalo and Houston. Talked about this on the top of the show, but who are you taking in this one and where is it in the confidence meter?

56:23How many points are you earning? I'm taking the Texans and it's at one because it's a straight toss up to me.

56:29Okay. It's at one meaning you're at bottom of the list.

56:32You're only getting one point. Bottom of the list.

56:35As in, I am not putting a lot of confidence in the Texans to win a big game because I am a

56:42traumatized Texans fan of 20 years, but I do think that on paper they should win this game, but yeah, that's absolute bottom of the rankings for me.

56:50I'll get four points if the Texans win this one.

56:53I got them in the four point spot here, but I'm also taking the Houston Texans.

56:58I talked about how I'm excited about Jim Leonard, their defensive coordinator.

57:01I think it's going to be a little bit of a slow burn for them.

57:06So outside of a superhuman performance from Josh Allen against what could be the best defense in the NFL, I'm also going to take the Texans here.

57:14Baltimore and the Colts. So the Ravens versus the Colts here.

57:17What do we think about this game? We didn't touch on this one at all during the show yet, so what do you think?

57:24I was actually pretty confident in this one. I think the Ravens are going to win it.

57:29I put that at eight. I think Jesse Minter is an incredible defensive coach.

57:33Remember, last year, the Ravens allowed just as many points in the first five weeks of the season as they did the entire rest of the year.

57:41All they had to do was just have like a respectable defense in the first month.

57:46They probably would have made the playoffs. I think Lamar is awesome.

57:50I am a big believer in Declan Doyle. I still think King Henry's got it.

57:54They improved the guard spots. It's just a really, really good team.

57:58I'm going to put that at eight. I do the Colts.

58:01I have them in the sixth spot, but I also have the Ravens winning this game.

58:06I'm with you. I think the offense is certainly going to be better.

58:10I think the Minters are going to have that defense rolling a lot better than what it was last season.

58:16And I'm a fan of the changes that they have made this offseason.

58:20So for the Colts, there are things to get excited about on that team.

58:24I kind of got to see it on that defensive line.

58:27Like I need that defensive line to be constant in pressures, but also finishers.

58:31That's what we really need here. And I think it'll be a good test against some new Ravens offensive linemen.

58:37So we're both taking the Ravens. You got that one a little bit higher on the confidence meter than I do.

58:43The Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers. What do we think about this one?

58:48I'm going to go Steelers. It's not the most confident.

58:51I put them in the four spot. I just want to see what the Falcons quarterback situation looks like, right?

58:56I just don't know. And I really can't be confident in something that I don't know.

59:01And even though I'm not like a huge believer in the Steelers this year, I do think they're at least going to be a solid team.

59:09I'm not even sure the Falcons are a solid team.

59:12So give me the Steelers now. I'm with you.

59:15I got the Steelers winning this game as well.

59:17I got them in the seven spot actually. And it's just simply because I get a lot of faith in Mike McCarthy

59:24as a coach to just raise the floor of this team.

59:27Like I think the floor for the Steelers, they might win this game without even scoring 20 points, right?

59:33But I just have more faith that they're going to be able to operate things on both sides of the ball a

59:39little bit better than the Falcons are. I think the Falcons have some explosive players that can make things happen for them.

59:46They've just really got a hit on those explosive plays to win this game given the uncertainty that they've got at the quarterback position.

59:53So we're both taking the Steelers. You got it in the four spot.

59:57I got it in the seven spot if they end up winning.

60:00Jets, Titans. Where are they at in your race?

60:03Yeah, this one kind of confused me too. The win probability model was really hot on the Titans for this one.

60:09I still would go Jets here. I'm with you.

60:12I agree. And I don't know if it's just because like, hey, Jeff Simmons exists.

60:17Titans are going to win. It's fair. Absolutely fair point.

60:20It is fair. You look at all the talent the Jets have added.

60:23Unfortunately, not the most important position, but all the talent the Jets have added in the last two off seasons.

60:29The offensive line has been rebuilt. Like, Brees is good to go.

60:33They got receivers. You know, defensive talent up and down, but it's not like the worst in the league.

60:39They brought in a bunch of veterans. Like, DeMario Davis still got it somehow at age a billion.

60:44So I really do think the Jets, like, how about this?

60:47If you put Cam Ward on the Jets, would this even be a discussion?

60:51No, but I, and dude, I have the Jets winning this game in the eighth spot.

60:56I see you got it in the sixth spot.

60:59I have it even higher than you. So I think that NGS has having the Titans at a 56% win percentage here

61:05kind of goes to the fact that this game's in Tennessee.

61:09So I think they're just thinking, hey, these are two teams that may be not the best in the NFL, but we'll

61:15take the team that's got the home field advantage there.

61:18I think the Jets are going to be able to get that after the quarterback.

61:23And I still have my reservations about Cam Ward being too loose with the football.

61:27And until I see him take care of the football a little bit better, I'm always going to worry about that.

61:33I think the Jets are going to be better.

61:36Give me the Jets and give them to me in the eighth spot there.

61:40Geno Smith famously safe with the football in 2025.

61:43Hey, you got a point. But I do think that the Jets have some ways to make a difference with some of the pass catchers that they've gotten.

61:51I think a little bit more stability on the offensive line specifically to be able to give me a little bit more

61:58faith that they're going to win this game. Miami Dolphins and the Las Vegas Raiders.

62:02What do we think about this one? Where is it in the confidence rating?

62:06I went Vegas. I would be more confident in it, weirdly, if Fernando Mendoza was starting.

62:11You would be? I think I would. I like what I saw in the preseason.

62:16Like, yeah, there's bumps in the road, but I really, I think they got something here.

62:20I put it at five. I think they do too.

62:23I just, yeah, I don't know. I don't know about week one.

62:27I just, I really like his just added flavor of mobility to get himself out of trouble when he needs to.

62:33And, you know, as a passer, they were under center like half the time in the preseason, which he's never done that

62:40before and I thought he looked, he acquitted himself well.

62:43Like, they were doing actual drop back passes, no play action from under center.

62:47I'm like, oh my God, kids got it. They're fine.

62:50So, I put it at five. I think I would have put it higher if Mendoza was starting, but for now, I put it at five.

62:58I'm taking the Dolphins because to me, it's one of those games where everybody's potentially predicting the Dolphins to get the number

63:04one overall pick in the draft and this is one of those games where we said week one is a liar.

63:10We said at the top of the show, week one is a liar.

63:14Okay. I think the Miami Dolphins are winning this game and you know how much I think it?

63:20I have them at the one point for the conference meter, so they are all the way at the bottom, but I

63:26am taking Miami here to try to steal a point from you by picking the Dolphins to win this game.

63:32The Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, we spent a lot of time on this game earlier in the show, but what do you think about this?

63:40Who do you think wins and where is it on the list?

63:44I'm very confident in this one. I think the Vikings win.

63:47I put it at nine. Ooh. Like, I really am confident the Vikings win this game.

63:52Dare I say, not close. Like, more than a possession.

63:55I threw out the not close phrase. Because, again, the Packers defense without Micah is not the same.

64:00That's tough. I know that Kevin O'Connell has a million different quarters beaters in his back pocket.

64:05I mean, they won nine games last year with J.J.

64:08McCarthy and Max Brasper. Come on. I don't think it's close.

64:12All due respect. With all due respect. But, like, even Packers fans are like, yeah, man, I don't know.

64:17I also, look, I also think the Vikings win this game.

64:21I have in the five spot sort of right in the middle of my list.

64:25So, I got them at number five. You got the Vikings winning and maybe getting nine points there for that one.

64:31Dallas and New York. The Cowboys versus the Giants.

64:34The only game I'm more confident in is the Cowboys over the Giants in this one.

64:39Yeah, this is my 10 spot game. We have the same 10 spot game here and that is with the Cowboys winning over the Giants.

64:46It's really the start of the NFL season every year when we get our first primetime Giants-Cowboys game when the Cowboys win by, like, a gazillion points.

64:54It's been a few years since we've had it, but, like, that's football to me.

64:59Early season September, Cowboys-Giants primetime, just drubbing. I could also see it happening.

65:02I could also see it happening, Garrett. Too many changes for New York.

65:06Denver and Kansas City. We just previewed this one before we got into the game picks.

65:11Where's this one on the list? This one was closer for me.

65:15I put it number three on the list, Chiefs over Broncos.

65:18I was actually kind of surprised by the model on this one because it did have the Chiefs winning this game, which

65:25when I went into it, I was like, oh yeah, it's obviously going to, you know, it's going to give the Broncos a higher percentage.

65:32It actually gave the Chiefs a higher percentage, so I found myself shocked that I was agreeing with the model, but I

65:38really do for a lot of the reasons we talked about.

65:42You know, if you're looking at the Broncos defense, they don't have Franklin Myers anymore, Cooper's on the exempt list.

65:48You know, is their pass rush still going to be as good this year as it was last year because of that?

65:54I think Mahomes is fine. Like, I really do think he's healthy.

65:58There's a lot of reasons for me to pick it.

66:01Wow, people are going to clip that. It's going to be you calling Mahomes just fine.

66:06I hope you realize that. You've been around the internet long enough.

66:09You played yourself, my friend. There's like four things in this segment that are going to get clipped and shoved in my face.

66:16Brother, the whole segment's going to get clipped. You know it.

66:19It's a clippable segment. I give Giants fans full provision, by the way, to just absolutely dunk on me if they win this game.

66:26You guys have earned it. I also have the Chiefs winning.

66:30I have that at the two spot, though. You've got it at three spots.

66:34So we have, we both have it much lower on our confidence list because I think that we both just believe this

66:40is going to be a close game. Four games that the NGS model, win probability model, thinks that maybe it's not going to be so close.

66:48Washington at Philadelphia. Philadelphia with a 65%. Win probability chance there.

66:51The New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions, this one's in Detroit, but 76% for Detroit.

66:56I was pretty shocked about that. Cleveland at Jacksonville, 76% for Jacksonville.

67:00And then Arizona versus LA, the Chargers, Cardinals versus Chargers.

67:0380% win percentage there from the model on the side of the Chargers.

67:07That's the one that scares me. I mean, besides the Saints win.

67:10The Saints won like, okay, yeah, I still would pick the Lions there.

67:1476%. I was like, all right, let's slow down a little bit.

67:18But 80%? 80's a lot. That's a lot. 80's a lot.

67:21Like, I get it. The quarterback disparity, Mike McDaniel coming over.

67:24Yeah. I get it. But if you're just looking at the Cardinals roster, this is actually something I talked with EJ about this week.

67:31If you take Jordan Love and you put him on the Cardinals roster, are they a wildcard team?

67:37I would say yes, because you got an improved offensive line even after the Pesantis injury.

67:41Improved offensive line, Trey McBride, good receivers, Jeremiah Love in the backfield.

67:45Like, that's a good offensive roster. They're just missing a quarterback.

67:48And you're telling me that that team with a good offensive roster in week one, which we know is a liar, you're giving them 20%?

67:56Stunned me. I think that their percentage should be a little bit higher.

68:00I don't know if it should be that much higher.

68:03What about Jacksonville and Cleveland here? I think that there's just way too many question marks with what the Cleveland Browns offense

68:09could be, although I will say I'm a Todd Munkin guy.

68:12I like Todd Munkin. I like how he approaches the game.

68:16I like what he did with the Ravens offense.

68:18Not always, but most of the time. And I think that they've got some added skill position players with Denzel Boston and

68:25Casey Concepcion, obviously Quinchot Junkins as well, that can be a difference maker outside of just the questions at quarterback.

68:31So I feel as though I like Cleveland a little bit better than most people, but I certainly am not going to

68:37be picking them over the Jacksonville Jaguars who could be an AFC championship and maybe even be a Super Bowl team.

68:44Yeah, I thought the 76% for the Jags was fair here just because of gestures and everything over in Cleveland right now.

68:50But the fact that Detroit and Jacksonville were both at 76%, that's what stunned me just because the quality opponent is so not the same to me.

68:58Yeah. And then Philly at 65%. If anything was going to be north of 70, I actually thought Philly would be north

69:05of 70 because of the offensive line issues with the commanders.

69:08I'm not entirely sure. I believe in a lot of their defensive signings even though they were expensive.

69:13Like I get it. We're breaking in a new offense in Philly.

69:17Like I fully understand. But that to me felt more lopsided than Detroit Saints.

69:21Yeah. I think that it being in a division and just not knowing the Jaden Daniels factor, right?

69:26Just how unbelievable he was his rookie season and how at any point in time he could put on the Superman cape and maybe take over.

69:34I think that that probably is baked into this a little bit.

69:38But there's a lot of question marks for the commanders on both sides of the trenches but specifically the offensive trenches as well.

69:45And we know that Philly can really get after the quarterback.

69:48So I wouldn't be taking any of these underdogs for any of these high win probability teams but New Orleans we talked

69:54about that when New Orleans is the one to keep an eye on because there's potential that that offense could be pretty

70:01dang potent but it's hard to think that they're going to outscore the Detroit Lions given how great they have been over the last couple of seasons.

70:09Thanks for listening to the week one preview but because we're emphasizing it's week one you know that we're going to be

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70:19Be sure to follow NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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70:32There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.

70:35I'm JJ Zachary and host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast.

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