0:00Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 2 Preview Podcast and thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:08Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:10Two-point conversion to tie the game with 101 to go.
0:13The Eagles did not care about the Commander's run game at all.
0:17They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
0:20And the Eagles stop them! When you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
0:26The offensive line. My goodness, Will McDonald burying Cam Ward.
0:29I think running backs have been devalued, erroneously even.
0:31Erroneous on all accounts. On every account! 60-yard run by Ken Walker III!
0:35It's time for Week 2. We're going to tackle all the game previews you guys have been begging us to get to
0:42for days on end, which is good, because now at least somebody's going to be tackling something.
0:47Rushy Rice! Breaking tackles on the near side! Touchdown!
0:50We're sitting here talking about, oh, abolish the preseason.
0:52Preseason games don't matter. Let's just cancel the preseason and go straight to the regular season.
0:57The lack of execution, the lack of physical football, the lack of good teams that were ready to play in Week 1 and fell flat.
1:05Dude, I think that tells us the exact opposite.
1:07The missed tackle rate was the highest that it has been in seven years.
1:1214.8% missed tackle rate across the NFL in Week 1.
1:15That shows me that we didn't play enough football in August.
1:18That these guys weren't exactly ready for the physicality of the regular season.
1:22And man, it was eye-opening to watch, especially in that Monday night football game with the Broncos.
1:27And you know, practice habits have changed. And we used to have two-a-days back in the day.
1:32I'm not advocating for going back to two-a-days, you know, in like 100-degree heat.
1:36Back in my day! But like, guys did tackle better in September.
1:40At least it felt like it. So I don't know what the solution is here.
1:44I'm sure there's a way to fix this issue.
1:47I don't know what it is yet. I am not an elite football coach.
1:51But clearly, like, tackling donuts aren't cutting it right now.
1:54The way that you get better at playing football is by playing football.
1:58And there's a physical part of it that goes into it.
2:01And we're going to tackle a lot of league trends as the year goes on.
2:06But honestly, this is the biggest league trend after Week 1, in my opinion, is just the sheer number of teams that
2:12weren't ready for the physical demands of playing a regular season football game.
2:16I've got some more NGS stats here for the people.
2:1961 explosive plays after missed tackles allowed in Week 1.
2:22Last year was 36. 36 to 61? That is a league trend.
2:26That is something that I am very, very curious to see what the numbers look like Week 2 versus Week 1, right?
2:33I mean, are these coaches just absolutely getting into these players?
2:36Are these players like, okay, I thought I knew what it was going to take to perform the way that I know
2:42I can perform in Week 1 and it clearly was not there.
2:46How quickly can we solve this? Is it a flip of the switch?
2:50Is it going to take a little bit of time because these guys didn't play nearly as much as the preseason?
2:56So, another number. 17.7% of all scrimmage yards in Week 1 came after a missed tackle.
3:01That's the highest share of any opening week since 2018.
3:04So again, we're breaking records. This is a trend in the worst way.
3:08And I just think that, man, the missed tackle stuff, it was an epidemic in Week 1.
3:13And it feels like it's such a simple thing, right?
3:16Like this whole game, this entire sport is just blocking and tackling.
3:20It's one of the oldest platitudes in football. It's just blocking and tackling.
3:23And if you can't do half of that, then what are you as a defense?
3:28Like, it was just disgusting. Every defensive coach on planet Earth hated watching football this week.
3:33And that's probably a good segue, by the way, to talk about Broncos-Jags because these two teams are coming in from complete opposite experiences in Week 1.
3:41Yes. And of all the teams that couldn't tackle in Week 1, Denver was by far the worst.
3:46Nine months after ACL surgery, Patrick Mahomes runs it in from 15 yards out!
3:50Yeah. Historically bad rate here for the Denver Broncos.
3:53And I remember we were texting in the show group chat, and you and I were kind of like, wow, like 23% missed tackle rate.
4:01And we were kind of pointing that out to each other because we said, there's no way it goes up, right?
4:07And the fourth quarter happened. Dude, that was when it was like 22%, 23%.
4:11And I could see the tweets now. The tweets would have been at one point, the Broncos were missing 22% or 23%
4:18of a tackle rate throughout the game. No, it got worse.
4:21It absolutely did not get better. The Broncos had a 29.8% missed tackle rate against the Kansas City Chiefs.
4:27248 missed tackle yards allowed. That rate was the highest in the league in a single game since Week 3 of 2023
4:33when the Broncos also had a 29.9% missed tackle rate.
4:36Not ideal. And that was the most such yards given up from missed tackles since 2018.
4:41Travis Kelsey! Inside the 20! Down to the 5!
4:44So yeah, I mean it was terrible. And you mentioned as a good segue going into this game because the Jags offense, man, it looked fast.
4:52It looked confident. Liam Cohen had these boys ready.
4:54They put their foot on the gas pedal and they did not let up until, you know, you got well into the fourth quarter of that game.
5:02Okay, let's break down the absurdity of this Trevor Lawrence touchdown here.
5:06So we're setting things up and we see that we've got one running back in the backfield.
5:11We've got two tight ends on the line of scrimmage.
5:14So we have 12 personnel total. That's what we're talking about here.
5:18So 12 personnel here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And when you look at things from the defensive side of things, it looks like could be cover one.
5:26You've got one single high safety right here. And you've got a handful of these defenders that are sort of right in
5:32front of where these receiving options would be. But when we start this play, we'll motion this wide receiver in.
5:38Once we get to a condensed set, yes, this defender did travel with this wide receiver, but then he backed up.
5:45He didn't get into a press coverage look. So it tells you, okay, we're more likely looking at cover three here and not a cover one set.
5:53Now it's in the red zone. So everything kind of plays like man eventually, because anytime a guy gets in a zone,
5:59you're probably playing him in some sort of man principle.
6:02So, you know, you're going to get some sort of man coverage type of look somewhere.
6:07And you do get that on this side of the field right here, but it just does not matter to Trevor Lawrence.
6:14Okay, here's a little quick play action. And he already knows where he is going to go with the ball, which is
6:20absolutely absurd because there's no separation here from the wide receiver.
6:24The safety was already creeping in this direction. You have this zone defender, this zone defender, and yet Trevor Lawrence goes, Nope, right here.
6:31I see the throwing window. I'm absolutely making this happen.
6:34And I want you guys to remember, this is the first quarter.
6:37They're only up seven, nothing. It's not like this game is 30 to nothing and it's way out of hand.
6:43And Trevor Lawrence just says to himself, nah, I don't care.
6:47This doesn't really matter. He's going for this absurd throw because at the beginning of the game, there was a sound bite from him.
6:54And he said, Hey, we should not feel pressure at all in this game.
6:58We should be the ones applying the pressure. We shouldn't feel on our heels at all.
7:03This is the definition of that. Look how he rips this throw in there.
7:07That is absolutely absurd to not just see that potential throwing window, but actually have the guts to throw the ball and then the talent to complete it.
7:15Unbelievable stuff. And you know, we had to give you another angle because here at NFL pro, you know, yeah, we got
7:22flex that we've got all the angles that we could show you guys.
7:26This is the perfect angle here when you get to see all of these defenders.
7:30So I'm going to let this play start a little bit here.
7:34You're going to see the quick play action from him.
7:37And then right when Lawrence sets up, this is his point of view here.
7:41This wide receiver is barely. I mean, he's barely open right now.
7:45You can anticipate, Hey, he's got the break. He's got the inside leverage.
7:49He's going to have a little bit of room, but this safety is looking at him the entire time.
7:54This underneath defender could absolutely get in the throwing window.
7:57So depending on where Lawrence releases this ball, that zone defender could be a factor here as well.
8:03And the fact of the matter is it just simply did not matter.
8:07Look at where that ball is. You cannot see the wide receiver.
8:10You can only see four Cleveland Brown defenders. You could see the football and that wide receiver is totally behind the coverage.
8:17Again, this is Trevor Lawrence's point of view here.
8:19It's an unbelievable throw. And to be honest with you, we are all this guy.
8:24We are all this guy right here after watching the absurdity of that passing touchdown for Trevor Lawrence.
8:29The good news for Denver is that the Jags offense is like the polar opposite of what Kansas City did to them in week one.
8:37If you're looking at yak percentage, right? It's the total number of passing yards or total percentage of passing yards that was after the catch.
8:44Kansas City easily, you know, and obviously number one across the league in week one.
8:49The Jags were the lowest. They were very much a downfield passing game, like no yards after catch required there.
8:55They were getting them all through the air. And so I'm curious to see if that's actually a better matchup for Denver,
9:01because if they did one thing, well, it was not really allowing Kansas City to even go vertical.
9:07They tried one time and it resulted in a miscommunication and interception by my homes that wasn't really on my homes.
9:13But maybe that's the saving grace for Denver here is that they're not really going up against a team like even last
9:20year that was good at yards after catch. Jacksonville had the sixth lowest yak percentage in all of 2025.
9:25So this wasn't just like a one week thing.
9:28But even then, I don't know how any Broncos fan can look at what happened in week one and feel any sort of confidence right now.
9:36Like that was just ugly. Yeah, it's I mean, it has to be night and day.
9:41I don't really think there's any way around it.
9:43There's no like, all right, well, if we tweak this little thing here and there, I think that we'll be OK.
9:50I mean, it just has to look completely different.
9:52I am very curious to see if the Jags can sort of change it up a little bit here, right?
9:58Like, do they throw the ball a little bit shorter?
10:01Do they lean on yards after catch a little bit more?
10:05Because I think if there's been a critique of Trevor Lawrence that the highs have been phenomenal for him when they've been there.
10:12But can he within a game change himself or change what they want to do?
10:16And I think Cohen's a great coach and he's going to be able to sort of have that at his disposal.
10:22But could Trevor execute? Can you go from one game plan one week to something maybe completely different to try to take
10:29advantage of the weaknesses of a defense out there?
10:32And also, you know, the Broncos defense does play different structurally than the one they faced against Cleveland.
10:37About 70% of every single coverage call by the Browns last week was either cover three or cover one.
10:43And the majority of those were cover three. It kind of looked, you know, earmuffs, Jacks fans kind of look like a Gus Bradley defense a little bit.
10:51A lot of cover three. And whenever it was cover three, they just tore apart the linebackers.
10:56When it was cover one, they tore apart the corners like nobody could cover in man in this game.
11:02It was it was really disgusting. But Trevor was so dialed in against these single high structures and it just felt like Cleveland didn't have an answer.
11:10I'm really interested to see if Denver kind of leans more into that.
11:14Not even cover two more like quarter quarter half kind of lifestyle here.
11:18You know, take away that deep ball down the boundary.
11:21And then you have Sertan backside just being Pat Sertan again structurally a little bit of a different defense here for Jacksonville.
11:27That's why this matchup fascinates me so much is because it's such a slingshot between styles that they're facing from week one to week two.
11:35And, you know, to kind of mix metaphors here styles make fights in the NFL for sure.
11:40Yeah, I do want to touch on the other side of things when the Broncos offense goes up against the Jags defense
11:47because I went back and I watched all of Jalen Waddle's snaps and routes from this game.
11:52And I was like, okay, what happened here? Like, could they just not get him the ball?
11:57Were they really honed in on him? Honestly, Brett, my number one takeaway was just Steve Spagnuolo.
12:02Masterclass. Genuinely a masterclass from the defensive coordinator because I noticed early on that the Broncos wanted to use Jalen Waddle as
12:08a decoy to get a lot of other people open.
12:11They wanted to see how the Kansas City Chiefs defense was going to focus in on him.
12:16The very first play was orbit motion with Jalen Waddle.
12:19It's like, okay, let's see. How are they going to adjust?
12:23How are they going to focus on him? Obviously, the touchdown that they had at the front pylon, that was also from
12:29a Jalen Waddle out of the backfield type of route, which, by the way, anybody who watched NFL Pro, you watched that happen live.
12:37You saw Jalen Waddle out of the backfield, and even though he didn't get the ball, his presence out of the backfield
12:43is a big reason why that was a touchdown.
12:46So that's why I watch the show, people. Make sure you subscribe.
12:49But when I watched him be like this decoy, the Chiefs just had the perfect defense for it.
12:55They played so much two deep and three deep coverage in this game.
12:59They said, okay, sure. You want to throw it deep?
13:02We got the numbers for it. We got the bodies for it.
13:05And if you want to throw it underneath, because that's sort of the give and take, right?
13:10All right, we're going to put more bodies in the deep portion of the field.
13:15Well, that means there's less to cover the underneath.
13:18That means that you're probably going to give up throws and completions underneath, which then requires what?
13:23Rallying and tackling. Okay? 8.7% missed tackle percentage as a team, despite the fact that Bo Nix had 20 passes of 10 or less air yards.
13:30LeJerius Sneed, he is back. He's the perfect player for this defense.
13:34He had four solo stops himself. I watched Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton rally to the ball and be so reliable.
13:40These underneath zone defenders were so ready to do their job when those short passes ended up coming.
13:46Okay, you can't hit anything deep. Sure, the underneath stuff is open, but it's not going anywhere.
13:51Now, all of a sudden, the Chiefs are up 10.
13:54Now, all of a sudden, the Chiefs are up three scores.
13:57Now, what do we do? Now, we've got to force it.
14:00And that's, I think, why you see the Bo Nix panic plays.
14:04Intercepted by the rookie, Delane! Real quick, I think the question that Jags fans have is, do the Jags and Anthony Campanelli
14:11have this recipe to sort of do the same thing and frustrate Knicks the same way?
14:15I mean, that was their calling card last year, right?
14:18Campanelli, he has both a Vic Fangio heritage and a Jeff Halfley heritage kind of mixed together.
14:24And I think if you're looking at the specific matchup between the Broncos and Campanelli's defense in Jacksonville, they're probably going to
14:30see a lot of the same stuff this week that they saw last week, specifically with, we're going to build that umbrella
14:37over the top, rally and tackle on anything underneath.
14:39We're going to try to use rotations. We're going to try to use disguise, anything to slow down his clock so that
14:46our great pass rushers can get there. The one key difference, and this is what I'm really fascinated by, if you're looking
14:53at the changeup that Spags had in week one, it wasn't just that aggressive man coverage.
14:57It was man coverage paired with pressure. 50% of all the Chiefs' man coverage calls had six plus rushers attached to it.
15:04It wasn't just, we're rushing five, we're rushing six with man coverage.
15:08And when you have receivers, not getting attacked, but let's say scuffed up a little bit.
15:12You can play a little physical. A little physical?
15:15You can't kill them just out of the yards for free.
15:18Ain't nobody gets anything for free. I'll work for in this league.
15:22Was it a penalty? Eh, who's going to say?
15:25Didn't get called. Not a penalty. I will say, though, with those tight windows from man coverage paired with pressure, and it
15:31sped up Nix's clock so much, and Nix with a sped up clock isn't necessarily going to be able to make the
15:38tight window throws that are required to beat tight man coverage.
15:41And we saw that over and over and over in this game.
15:45At one point in the fourth quarter, he was averaging like three yards per attempt against man.
15:50And that was largely because those man coverage were paired with pressure.
15:53Campanelli doesn't really do that in Jacksonville. Like, not only do they not call a lot of man, they also don't call
16:00a lot of six-man pressures with man coverage. So, that's part of the reason why I'm so interested in this matchup is
16:07a lot of the stuff that really tore Denver to pieces last week.
16:10The Jags don't necessarily do it on either side of the ball.
16:14That ball is caught! The fourth touchdown pass of the day for Trevor Lawrence!
16:18How good is that? So, let's stay with the Chiefs because the Chiefs also play the Colts, and we want to talk about this game here.
16:26Specifically, the Colts' defensive side of things. It's something that I'm worried about here, Brett, because I think that they're trying to play a defense.
16:34I think Lou Anarumo is trying to play a defense that fits one of his players, but not most of his players on defense.
16:41And that is how often they play man coverage.
16:43So, they played man on more than 50% of their snaps in Week 1.
16:48Obviously, it didn't work well versus the Baltimore Ravens, but you can take things back a little bit further.
16:53Because since the Sauce Gardner trade, they have the fifth highest man coverage rate in the NFL, 35.2%.
16:59That's a plus 6.7% man coverage rate before and after the Sauce Gardner trade.
17:03When you look at this past game, Sauce allowed one catch for 12 yards in man coverage.
17:08Brett, the rest of the team, eight catches for 180 yards.
17:11For me, this defense, I'm worried about it because it just feels like they're trying to play a coverage that fits one player.
17:18They're a prized player, but it doesn't really fit the other guys that are on the team.
17:23And defense, man, it's so much about all 11 guys working together and playing well.
17:28So, I'm worried about this team on defense, especially for a Kansas City Chiefs offense that knows how to attack man coverage like that.
17:35And one of the things that Declan Doyle did in that game that I think was super underrated was he was using
17:42motions and formations not just to dictate that man coverage in a sense, but also to identify it to confirm that that dictation worked.
17:49What I mean by that is they had a 67.2% shifted motion rate, which is a good way to see if they're
17:55in man coverage, if somebody's going to be moving across the formation, is their defender following them?
18:00Usually means it's going to be man. They had a 37% nub rate, which was third highest in week one.
18:06And a significant chunk of that was six offensive line looks, right?
18:10Getting that jumbo tackle on the field. And what they were doing a lot was either they were putting a tight end
18:17in a nub to one side and then three receivers to the other side, or they were putting that jumbo tackle to
18:23one side and three receivers to the other side, because you had snaps.
18:27Like there was one, it was a first down to Mark Andrews, where you had the jumbo tackle on the field and Sauce was lined up on him.
18:36So obviously it's zone because Sauce isn't going to cover an offensive tackle in man coverage.
18:40I mean, he would. Preference wise. I mean, he could.
18:43Yeah, probably. Yeah, right. But, you know, he was using formations and basically being like, either you match it with corners and
18:50tell us you're a man, or you match it with, you know, a safety or a linebacker or whatever.
18:56And you tell us you're in zone. And then we just know exactly what you're doing.
19:00Like that was half the reason that 54 yard catch and run touchdown.
19:04They had Justice Hill lined up out wide with a corner on him.
19:08Well, now we know it's zone and we're pretty sure it's going to be a fire zone.
19:13And it was. And little Mark gave like a brilliant little pump fake to get the safety to jump into lane and threw it around him.
19:21Say caught it ran for the touchdown. Like just all the formation emotion stuff they did to them.
19:26They made it not just hard on them to disguise.
19:29They made it impossible to disguise what they were doing.
19:32Now let's, let's talk Chiefs offense because we got to have the Kenneth Walker conversation.
19:37You and I in the season preview, we highlighted Kenneth Walker and how much of a difference maker he could be on this team.
19:44Well, early returns say pretty dang good. Walker the third.
19:47A backfield presence that this team hasn't had since Priest Holmes.
19:50Wow. Jamal Charles erasure. Oh my God. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
19:54You're sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That's just that.
19:56That is Jamal Charles erasure. I was, I was excited to get a Priest Holmes shout out here in the show.
20:03Jared McKinnon erasure too. But let's talk about Kenneth Walker.
20:06Let's talk about running back value because he gets paid coming over from the Seattle Seahawks.
20:10Anytime a running back gets paid, it's always like, Ooh, I don't know about that.
20:15Even if they're really talented. Well, we saw their returns on the field, but I just overall, let's, let's have the value
20:22conversation about running backs here, especially coming off a great performance from one who just got paid.
20:27So if you go back to 2015, a little over a decade ago, if you take the average of the top 10
20:33contracts at running back at that time, and the average of the top 10 contracts among edges at that time, and you
20:40look at the percentage of the salary cap that those averages came out to the difference between running back and edge was about a percent.
20:47The average of the top 10 running back contracts took up 10.04% of the salary cap.
20:52The average of the top 10 edge contracts took up about 11.17% of the salary cap quarterback.
20:57Meanwhile, about 15.35%, which was already up significantly from a decade before that, right?
21:01When Peyton Manning signed his big deal. Fast forward to 2026 running back has steadily decreased as far as the percentage of
21:08the cap that the average of the top 10 contracts taking up.
21:12Now it's at 7.47% edge has climbed up to 16.6%.
21:15So you're adding more than 5% to the average of top edge contracts.
21:18You're taking away about 2.5% from the average of running back contracts.
21:22Quarterback has gone up to 21.25%. So they're just taking more and more and more.
21:27And I look at it as, you know, not that running backs are being properly valued now.
21:32I think running backs have been devalued. Erroneously even at the expense of other...
21:36Erroneous on all accounts. On every account. But all these other positions have just taken money from these running backs.
21:42Yeah, right. And then you see these offenses that have highly paid quarterbacks and highly paid receivers, and they can't move the ball.
21:49And it's because they're consistently in third and long because they can't run the ball.
21:53You're just kind of lighting money on fire when you do that because you have all of, you know, this massive percentage
22:00of your salary cap, let's say in the Bengals case, in quarterback and two receivers, if they were the worst run game in the league.
22:07And they were consistently in third and eight because they couldn't run the ball.
22:12If you're looking league-wide at third down conversion percentages, third and one to three, league-wide average conversion is 60%.
22:17That's pretty damn good. League-wide average conversion on third and four to six to go is 43.7%.
22:22Still pretty good. Once you get to third and seven to ten, drops like a rock down to 31.3%.
22:2811 plus is 14.5%. So when you're bringing in a running back that can raise the ceiling of your running game, even
22:35by like a yard per carry, and you're a good early down run team, and you can get to more third and
22:41four and six rather than third and seven to ten, naturally your third down conversion rate is going to go up, which
22:48means your offense is staying on the field, which means you're getting more value out of the rest of your offense.
22:54Just by paying a running back seven and a half percent of your salary cap, like it is the most undervalued position in the sport right now.
23:02It's been devalued wrongly, erroneously, and we're starting to see these offenses realize that.
23:06You bring in Kenneth Walker, who's raising the ceiling of your running game.
23:10Pat Mahomes started the night, what, like 2 of 12?
23:13But it didn't matter because you had a running back that could still keep you on schedule and break off explosives by himself.
23:20Baltimore brought in Derrick Henry, elevated their run game.
23:23The Niners traded a bunch of picks for CMC.
23:26You think they regret that? No. The Texans traded for Dave Montgomery.
23:29They had a good short yardage game for the first time in like years in week one.
23:34So don't tell me running backs don't matter. You have to pay them.
23:38Not anybody can do this. And the fact that we were gaslit into thinking like, oh yeah, Alfred Morris is the same as Adrian Peterson.
23:46No, he's not. All respect to Alfred Morris. It's not the same.
23:49But that's always been the conversation is, the ones that are worth it are worth it.
23:54To like oversimplify everything into one sentence, you have to find the running backs that individually can elevate the offense.
24:00Because there's a lot of running games where most of the success is credit to the offensive line and how potent the
24:07passing game is and how easy things can be at the line of scrimmage.
24:11But when you get a back like Kenneth Walker, who led week one with 14 missed tackles and 114 missed tackle yards, that is that super valuable.
24:19Because wherever you force a missed tackle, you're bringing individual value to a play.
24:23It's independent of your offensive line. It's why when I look at scouting, there's so many backs who rush for a crap
24:30ton of yards when they're in college. But the ones that become great pros are the ones who, whether it's behind the
24:36line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, beyond the line of scrimmage, if you are making guys miss and if you
24:43are getting yards after contact, that is you. That is individual value.
24:46And that's when you really start to elevate an offense.
24:49And that is why Kenneth Walker was worth it for the Kansas City Chiefs.
24:54And that's why he's going to be a focal point again in a game against the Colts who struggled to contain Derrick Henry.
25:01It doesn't get any easier this week now that you're facing Kenneth Walker coming off that performance on Monday night.
25:07Also, one note to look at with these Colts linebackers.
25:10Second round pick, C.J. Allen, no snaps. Bryce Betcher, fourth round pick, 30% of the snaps.
25:14Not sure why yet, but something to keep an eye on.
25:18Interesting. Interesting. Eagles-Titans. Eagles come away with a win against the Washington Commanders, but didn't exactly look like the Eagles of old.
25:24And I think specifically, Brett, the offensive line. The heart and soul, the true identity of why the Eagles have been so good.
25:31It's been in both trenches. And that O-line did not look the same in Philadelphia against Washington.
25:36Landon Dickerson, he just went on IR. And it was bad.
25:39He needed to go on IR. He can't play right now.
25:43He can't move right now. But it wasn't even just him.
25:46The entire Eagles offensive line wasn't good. They allowed a 36.4% pressure rate.
25:50That was 12 highest. But really, the worst numbers were in the run game.
25:54Saquon got the vast majority of his yards after contact because he needed to.
25:58He took out the one long run that he had in that game.
26:02The rest of his day was 14 carries for 41 yards.
26:06He was getting nothing done. And when you take away that kind of run game easy button from the Eagles, no matter
26:12who their offensive coordinator is, when you take that away, Jalen just has to play on hard mode.
26:18And credit to him, by the way, he did that.
26:21He made several excellent plays to bail them out of trouble in that game.
26:25He had five scrambles for 48 yards, third most across all of week one, most in a game for him since week one of last year.
26:339.6 yards per carry on those scrambles. Like he was damn near getting a first down every time he took off.
26:39There was a third and 18 late in the game that he converted, just taking it upon his back.
26:44Be like, I got to get us this first down.
26:47It's a one point game. We're late in this thing.
26:50We got to go. And he did it. This was the Jalen Hurts put the team on your back kind of game.
26:57And, you know, credit to him for doing it.
27:00Not a whole lot else worked with this offense because of the offensive line.
27:04But if Jalen can do that until they get this offensive line sorted, maybe Dickerson comes off IR.
27:09Until that, if Jalen can keep playing like this, they have a shot.
27:13But boy, the difficulty level is just off the charts for him right now.
27:17On the other side of things, I want to talk about the Titans offense.
27:22Because there was a lot of hype for, you know, the new coaching staff.
27:26Brian Dayville being with Cam Ward. Obviously, you draft Carnell Tate number four overall.
27:30But really tough first day. Cam Ward was 19 for 32.
27:33140 passing yards. Had a touchdown. No interceptions. QB rating of just 80.
27:37Completion percentage below 60% here in this game. Ultimately, though, I just felt as though Cam still looked hesitant.
27:43And people want the yearly jump, like the year one to year two jump.
27:47But for Cam, there were the good moments. But then there were the hesitant moments.
27:52And it was still a mixed bag. And there were all sorts of inconsistencies with Cam Ward.
27:57To me, there's just so much going on in his head.
28:00He's not being able to play super free. And I've kind of got to get something off of my chest here, Brett.
28:07I don't understand why we weren't talking about the Titans drafting an offensive lineman at number four overall.
28:12They draft Carnell Tate and everybody goes, and myself included, I go, okay, look.
28:16Is Tate a good fit for the next step for Cam Ward and what this offense is going to be as a legitimate vertical threat?
28:24To me, that was putting the cart before the horse.
28:27To me, that was eating dessert before you're eating your vegetables.
28:30Because when you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
28:34The offensive line. This offensive line had the ninth highest pressure rate in 2025 at a 37.1%.
28:40And in week one, oh look, 41.0% pressure rate, eighth highest in the NFL.
28:44So they're bottom 10 offensive line all of last year.
28:47They were a bottom 10 offensive line in week one.
28:50And this is the thing that baffled me the most, Brett.
28:53They played 10 or 11 personnel on 85% of their snaps.
28:56They played more snaps in empty at the snap than any team in the NFL this week.
29:01You know what happened when they ran those snaps?
29:04Either extremely quick throws or pressures and sacks and terrible plays.
29:07You don't have the offensive line to run 10 and 11 personnel.
29:11You want to know why the air raid and the spread offense works in college and it doesn't in the NFL?
29:17Offensive line. Because a lot of times, the best offenses in college football, the talent gap is so wide, you can play
29:24five-man protections and the other team doesn't have what it takes to cover you and get pressure the way that you need to.
29:31When the Tennessee Titans went empty or when they were trying to spread the field with four wide receivers, five receiving options, you know what the Jets did?
29:39They got home. They blitzed. So for me, philosophically with this Titans offense, I'm worried.
29:44Because what Cam Ward did really well when he was at Washington State, when he was at Incarnate Word as well, and
29:50then certainly when he was at Miami, is it was a lot of spread offense stuff.
29:55He wants to be in the shotgun. He wants to have multiple receivers that he could go to.
30:00You can only do that if you have the offensive line to protect him.
30:05And if you don't, it's going to end badly.
30:07And especially because they don't really have a blocking tight end on the roster to help them out here.
30:13Like they signed Daniel Bellinger. Daniel Bellinger played 14 snaps for them this past game.
30:18So is he really going to be a presence where all of a sudden you're playing him on the offensive line and
30:24he's really helping out and he's in there for chip locks and everything?
30:28Because then you've got to take a receiver off the field.
30:31And I don't know how much they want to do that.
30:35I'll tell you what. This game is going to be great for fans of excellent defensive tackles beating the crap out of bad offensive lines.
30:42Because we talked about the interior of the Eagles offensive line being bad.
30:46Well, Jeff Simmons is coming to town. Good luck.
30:49One play at a time. Stay in the moment.
30:51You're looking at the platoon of defensive tackles that the Eagles are bringing with them.
30:56Right? You're looking at Carter. You're looking at Davis.
30:59Moro Joma was sensational against the Commanders. Like he's the one who made the play on that two-point stop.
31:04He was reading a pole key. And then, you know, the back block kind of came in from his right side.
31:11He just spun off of it, wrapped around the center and made the play all by himself.
31:16Like these Eagles defensive tackles are no joke. And they made the Commanders offensive line look awful.
31:21Moro Joma with the big play. And the Eagles make the stand they needed.
31:25Which is probably a good segue into talking about Commanders Cowboys.
31:28Because I don't know what Washington can do to help out Jaden Daniels.
31:32Like their offensive line might be the worst one that we're going to talk about today.
31:37And that is a low bar. Yeah, so they do bring Campbell as a five-man rush at the top of the screen.
31:44And they're just late on the kick out there, Coleman.
31:47And as a quarterback, you're feeling that pressure all day.
31:50That's speeding up your internal clock. So I was looking into the numbers.
31:53And obviously, I saw that the offensive line didn't play great.
31:57But I always like to sort of dive a little bit deeper, right?
32:01Jaden was holding onto the ball for a long time.
32:043.41 time to throw. I feel like he just didn't, you know, really trust the game as it was coming to him.
32:10There was one play in particular that I watched where he had all of his receivers to one side.
32:16And he had so much green grass to just run and scramble.
32:19And he didn't take it because I just think there's this overall hesitancy with him behind that offensive line.
32:253.2 average separation at the throw for the receivers.
32:28And a 14.7 tight window throws in week one.
32:31They're not great. They're like bottom 10, 12 in the NFL last week.
32:34But it's not like it was dead last. It's not like it was horrendous or anything like that.
32:40The main takeaway though, Brett, is yeah, the offensive line didn't play well.
32:44But specifically, the Eagles did not care about the commander's run game at all.
32:48They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
32:51And there were multiple times where I'm watching Jaden Daniels drop back.
32:55And even when there's play action involved, even when there's some misdirection, even when they have a threat to run the ball
33:01out of the backfield, the Eagles were like, dad, don't care.
33:04We'll drop seven. We'll drop eight. If you want to run the ball, go ahead.
33:09Try. We don't respect your run game. But I wonder how much other teams, like will the Cowboys and will teams moving
33:15forward not respect the commander's run game until they really prove that they have to.
33:20If you don't have a run game or a run threat, it makes it so much easier for teams to really cover you.
33:27And that was actually what ended up being my main takeaway for the commanders is they got to run the ball better.
33:33And, you know, failing that, if you can't get through the Cowboys defensive line, you should at least be able to go around the Cowboys defensive line.
33:42We saw the Giants do that brilliantly in week one, just hammering the flats over and over and over again.
33:48Chris Collinsworth was like apoplectic during the broadcast about it.
33:51He's like, how are you guys not covering this?
33:53And we actually had some really good sound from Shadi after that game because he was so frustrated.
33:59One of the things, not an excuse, guys. We did not play well.
34:03We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route.
34:06Excuse my language. You know, those are going to happen.
34:09So clearly Shadi none too pleased there. And I believe I found the exact play that he was referring to.
34:15This was down in the red zone. It's a second and very long.
34:19And the Cowboys are in a coverage here that the Fangio world calls cover nine.
34:23Why do they call it cover nine instead of cover three?
34:27I'm not entirely sure. I bet there's a reason that goes back 40 years.
34:31I just don't know what that reason is, but they call it cover nine.
34:35It's basically just a three deep zone, four underneath.
34:38Very similar to what we're all used to here.
34:40But there is a little adjustment that they call a sight call in the Fangio world where if the running back is
34:47what's known as fast to the flat, meaning he's not just doing a little like, you know, check release here.
34:53He's not giving a chip and then leaking out.
34:56Like if he is immediately releasing to the flat, then it's the safety's responsibility to push to the flat and take that away.
35:02If the running back is slow to the flat, then it's the linebacker.
35:06And so because this running back was fast to the flat, you actually see the safety, you know, point to him like
35:13he's expecting the linebacker to go with him. But if you're playing this sight call here, it's actually the safety's responsibility.
35:19He realizes it way too late. Running back gets an easy catch and run, sets up a third and very short.
35:26And then they scored very soon after that again in the flats.
35:29Entirely different coverage. This one actually was on Barham.
35:32He should have been pushing to the flat there and just lollygag through it.
35:36But you can see why Schottenheimer was so frustrated and why I'm sure Christian Parker was super frustrated is because the Eagles
35:43cover this 10 times out of 10 because they understand that the running backs release is going to change the responsibility between the linebacker and the safety.
35:51Cowboys are still brand new at this. It's a very new system for them.
35:55You have players, especially Barham, who, you know, he's a rookie.
35:58It's his first ever game. I do believe they will get this corrected.
36:02Even the Eagles, you know, when Fangio first started consulting with them, they were kind of out of sorts at first when they started running all this stuff.
36:10That was years ago at this point. But I have to believe that a mistake this minor is going to be fixed in very short order.
36:18It probably already has been in the meetings that they've had since this game.
36:22But I just wanted to explain why Shottie was so beside himself because this is just like cover 9 101.
36:28And they failed in their first game. You could tell he was very frustrated, but he was trying to bite his tongue a little bit.
36:36You know, this is a humbling business. You know, we got humbled tonight.
36:40I think it's a reminder for everybody, myself included, as somebody who loves the draft.
36:44And, you know, when these rookies get selected to these teams, you can't wait to see them out there and playing.
36:51It takes time. It really does take time for these guys to be able to do everything that they need to do.
36:57We have to coach the young players better. But when you play young players, it's part of the deal.
37:03And they need to learn quickly. We got to talk about the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams really for two extremely different reasons, right?
37:11The Giants are coming off what I think we on this show have to call the biggest upset that we had last
37:18week because we picked the Cowboys as our 10 confidence game last week when we were doing our game picks.
37:24And we thought that the Cowboys were going to win that game.
37:27Obviously, the New York Giants end up winning this game.
37:30But they're traveling to L.A. now, cross-country, to take on a Rams team that are to look worse, honestly, just given everything that the Rams were.
37:38I mean, Stafford had a negative 0.52 EPA per play on his dropbacks versus San Francisco in Week 1.
37:44That was his worst in a single game since 2016.
37:47Nothing was working for the Rams, not only just to the Super Bowl standard that everybody has for them, just from going
37:53out there Week 1 and kind of doing your thing, making sure that you're putting your best foot forward.
37:59It was not there for them. So we're going to talk about both of these teams pretty well.
38:04But what do you think about the Giants coming off of that big win now facing the Rams?
38:10What's sort of the area that you want to preview here for this one?
38:14It was a perfect plan, right? Nagy and Roman together.
38:17Apparently a double negative makes a positive, I guess.
38:20But maybe they just needed each other all along.
38:22I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I've been traumatized by both of them too.
38:26Veterans. Veteran coaching staff, Brett. We'll call it that.
38:29Knowledge. Wisdom. But it worked. Again, I'm being kind of a dick about it, but it worked.
38:34Like, they had a really good plan. And the fact that their entire plan was, hey, let's not go backwards, that was effective.
38:41It's seven possessions in this game. In the last two quarters, they had, what, 22 and a half minutes time of possession out of 30?
38:48Like, it was suffocating. Yeah. So it was a great plan by them.
38:52The run game wasn't particularly explosive, but it was effective.
38:55They had one of the highest success rates across the NFL, while also having one of the lowest stuff rates across the NFL.
39:02And if you're just consistently getting four, four and a half yards over and over and over again, well, you do that
39:08three times in a row, you got a first down.
39:11Then you do that four times in a row, you're in the red zone.
39:16And on the opening drive of the season, the Giants drive it down the field and they have the lead on the Cowboys.
39:23To me, it was a perfectly executed ball control game plan.
39:26I thought Jackson Dart was awesome in this game.
39:29Didn't have to make the Josh Allen type of throws, but did make the throws that he was supposed to make and
39:35was on point, was accurate, was in rhythm. All the platitudes we love to talk about.
39:40They were just really, really effective. And they took advantage of a Cowboys defense in their first game in a new system
39:47that wasn't pushing to the flat three times in four plays.
39:50We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route, excuse my language.
39:54And I'll tell you what, if it's not broke, don't fix it.
39:58I thought the Giants obviously did a great job of managing the game the way that they needed to and not shooting themselves in the foot, right?
40:06And if there's a critique that I had of Jackson Dart when he was coming out of Ole Miss, it was sure,
40:12I recognized the great plays, but I felt like there were too many plays where he was hurting the offense or certainly
40:19hurting himself and his cause to move the ball down the field.
40:22And it looked like a lot more methodical. So I loved the sort of progression of even what Jackson Dart was able to do.
40:30If you want to call it an easy day at the office, fine, but he helped make it an easy day at the office.
40:37On the Rams side of things, I do think that the pendulum has to swing back in the other direction.
40:43There's a lot of things that could have gone wrong here for the Rams.
40:47We talked at the very top of the show of just the epidemic that was missed tackles and missed execution with week one.
40:54And we sort of related it to maybe lack of preseason reps being a reason why.
40:59The Rams don't play any of their starters in the preseason.
41:02It's just not the McVay way. And you tie that into, I'm trying not to be too hindsight with this, but I
41:09always kind of felt like a very strange travel plan for them.
41:12When did they get out here? Oh, dang. Going all the way across the world to play this game and not adjusting the body clocks at all whatsoever.
41:21I mean, this team did not look physically or mentally sharp for this game.
41:25And I have to feel is that within a much more regular environment for them, it doesn't look nearly as bad as it did in week one.
41:33But the area I'm most curious to see what is different in week two from week one when it comes to Los
41:39Angeles Rams is how they play defense, specifically how they covered.
41:43You trade for Trent McDuffie. You sign Jalen Watson.
41:45These guys are man coverage type of defenders. Trent McDuffie played 25.7% of his coverage in man in week one.
41:51Fourth lowest single game rate of his career. Like, he's a man coverage type of corner, or certainly was when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs.
42:00They just didn't ask him to do that. I mean, he's played man on 43.5% of his coverage snaps since entering the league in 2022.
42:07That's the ninth highest amongst all defensive backs with over 1,000 coverage snaps during that span.
42:12So, I feel as though they acquire these man coverage defenders.
42:15And they played it some. They played it 19%.
42:18But they really didn't play it much. And it goes back to, is this a little bit like the Colts conversation that we had earlier?
42:25Are you not playing your players to their strengths as a defense as a whole?
42:30Now, I think there are some things that you could look at with this game with context that could tell you that
42:36things might look different in week two. One, Shanahan does do a lot of motion stuff.
42:41And when you play man, like you referenced earlier in the show, you kind of give away that you're playing man when there's all this motion.
42:49And Brock Purdy gets a better look at what the defense is going to be post-snap if you have that sort of
42:56reaction to guys who are in motion when they're in man coverage.
42:59There's a little bit of that. But I will say this.
43:02Mike Evans was a man coverage neutralizer in that game.
43:05I went back and I watched the man coverage reps that they tried to play in that game.
43:11And a lot of times, Mike Evans was in the slot for that.
43:15They couldn't handle it. No matter who was playing in the slot, they did not have the answers for Mike Evans when they were playing in man coverage.
43:23So do the Giants have their version of Mike Evans?
43:26Is it Malik Namers? Is it Malachi Fields? Is it Isaiah Likely?
43:30Do they have that version of Mike Evans to attack them from sort of that big, strong slot type of a wide receiver archetype?
43:37I'm very curious. So I think that Stafford will bounce back.
43:40The Rams offensive line was still moving people off the ball in the power run game.
43:45I think those things will be consistent. But what does the defense look like?
43:49I'm not really worried about it without Miles Garrett, to be honest with you.
43:53I'm not. The defensive line was already going. Oh no, they have three other good pass rushers.
43:58What are they going to do? That's the thing.
44:01The whole point of conversation was they added Miles Garrett to this defense.
44:05Well, guess what? Now they still have this defense, right?
44:08So it's still that defense. But what does the coverage look like and how different is it from week one?
44:14Very curious to see what that looks like for the Rams.
44:17I will say Francis Malinoa, no pressures allowed on 36 pass blocking snaps.
44:21Going up against Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk. Super intriguing matchup.
44:25And you also brought up Malachi Fields. I'm going to take my opportunity.
44:28Do you watch him as a run blocker? Oh, I watched him as a run blocker when he was at Notre Dame too.
44:35So he's a new father. Shout out to Malachi.
44:38He's a new father. And immediately got dad strength because, oh my God, he was burying people.
44:43I thought you were saying that because he sunned people in the run game.
44:47I thought that's what he was doing. Yeah, he just picked up a bunch of extra kids in week one.
44:53We got one more game ball. His first victory is at New York Giants.
44:58Yeah! Okay, we're wrapping up the show here. Getting to you guys.
45:01The people. Because you guys have been unbelievable. Since we started this show, since we first announced that we were doing it,
45:08you guys have been such a big part of all the topics that we put together.
45:12We've tried to take so many of your suggestions.
45:15And we asked for questions here at the end of the show.
45:19And, Brad, I think that once again we got like 250 responses.
45:22So you guys are so involved. And we want to get you guys as involved as possible.
45:27We might even have to do our own separate Q&A show at some point.
45:32We love you guys. Thank you so much for wanting to get in on the show.
45:36We really appreciate it. We will answer a couple here to round us out.
45:41Real Chris Yonke has the first one. And I think it's one that a lot of people want to know the answer to.
45:48Which outcomes in week one are liars? And which ones are you buying?
45:51I am buying, Brett. The Ravens. Buying their dominance.
45:54I'm buying the new offense with Declan Doyle. How much they were able to just move the ball at will against the Indianapolis Colts.
46:01I'm buying them being a great team. I'm buying the Bears.
46:05And I'm buying the Bears good and bad. All of them, baby.
46:08I'm buying that the Bears are going to score a crap ton of points this year.
46:13And I'm also buying the fact that they are indeed going to give up a lot of points this year.
46:19So scoring 59. I don't know if they're going to score 59 every week.
46:23But scoring a lot of points every week. But also giving up a good amount of yards and points every week.
46:30It makes the Bears much watch TV every single week no matter what.
46:33And I'm also buying the Cincinnati Bengals. And specifically with the Cincinnati Bengals, I am buying how much better they are in both trenches.
46:41We talked about this in the season preview show.
46:43And it absolutely showed up week one. That offensive line looked great.
46:47Amarius Mims looked like a future all-pro. Dexter Lawrence's presence was well worth it in the middle of that defense.
46:53And the new speed additions they have on the edge looked beautiful.
46:56So I'm buying those three teams, the Ravens, the Bears, and the Bengals.
47:00What teams are you buying from week one? I'm a little bit more hesitant both ways.
47:05So I have fewer that I'm like more definitive on.
47:08But I will say I'm buying the Chiefs because this is what they look like when they have a real run game.
47:15And the passing game wasn't even good. And they were still up by like three scores in the second half.
47:21It's crazy. So I'm buying the Chiefs. I'm buying that defense.
47:24I'm buying the run game. And I'm buying the 49ers because they're healthy for now.
47:29And I always feel good about, you know, believing in the 49ers when they have at least 80% of their guys, which they do.
47:36As far as liars, mine are like positives, compliments, I guess, even.
47:39I think the Bucs are liars. Again, coward. Your Tampa.
47:42Whoa, whoa, I'm being nice to you. Well, I didn't know you were going to say the Bucs.
47:48Now you're a man of integrity. Now you're a man who just tells the truth, you know, when nobody else will.
47:54Now, yeah, now I love it. Visionary. How often are they going to turn the ball over four times in a game?
48:01I mean, come on. I mean, hopefully once. I think they're going to be fine.
48:05They got within six points even with four turnovers.
48:08They're going to be fine. And then as for the panic button about, you know, Reuben Bain.
48:13Dude, Amarius Mims is going to do that to a lot of people this year.
48:17I agree. People need to understand how good Amarius Mims not just could be, but is now.
48:22Like, Cappy learned how to putt. He's awesome. And then I also have the Texans as liars in a positive way.
48:29They're not going to give up 36 points to very many people.
48:32Josh Allen is one of, I don't know, four quarterbacks on planet Earth that I think could do that to them.
48:39As far as the insane throws that he made to put up those points.
48:43I think they're going to be fine. You know, the success rate that they allowed against Buffalo was totally normal.
48:49So Houston. And honestly, if I'm a Texans fan, well, I am a Texans fan.
48:53I'm coming out of that loss as positively as I possibly can.
48:57I'm treating it like, you know, an SEC team losing to Alabama in the mid-2010s.
49:01They put up yards. They were good in the red zone.
49:05It's not, like, that's a quality loss right there.
49:07Yeah. I think that my liars, I'm more pointing out sort of their opponent.
49:12Like, I think the Jets overall are liars because I think the Titans were terrible.
49:16So I don't know if it's going to look that good for them moving forward.
49:21We shall see. I think the same thing about the Giants.
49:24The Cowboys just played a horrendous game. So I thought the Giants were great.
49:28I'm not so sure it's going to look that good every single week.
49:32I'm not trying to take everything away from the Giants like we talked about in the preview.
49:37But I don't think it's going to look quite like that every single week.
49:41And then the Rams. So interestingly, I have two teams on this list that play each other this week with the Rams and the Giants.
49:49The Giants, I don't know if it's going to look as good as it looked in week one.
49:54The Rams, it cannot look as bad as it looked in week one.
49:58So we'll actually get to see what the result of that is.
50:02So there we go. That's our first question. Our second question.
50:05This one's from Mike Cash. And I think a lot of people are wanting to know the answer to this one.
50:11The Jets rolled out a 0-5 personnel on Sunday.
50:14Sure, why not? With five tight ends on the field, has the love of tight ends gone too far, Brett?
50:20How do we feel about this one? In fact, I had one of our analyst guys see, has this happened before?
50:26Because I was thinking maybe there wasn't. And that's not why we did it.
50:30It was just we got five good tight ends.
50:33So he went back 20 years and he couldn't find any evidence of 0-5 personnel.
50:38So I like it for those tight ends. I'm still hesitant to call it 0-5 personnel because technically one of them was a fullback.
50:45So if we're counting that as more of like a running back than a tight end, like maybe it's 14, but like
50:51the most hilarious 14 personnel group you've ever seen.
50:54Well, it ended up being, was it 0-5 personnel?
50:57Because technically they were set up in, I don't even know what to call it, like a jumbo pony package because it was like 19-20s.
51:04And then, yeah, it was. And then they pre-snap, they moved into what was actually, I think, more of a 14 personnel.
51:11An alert for future weeks on that. Kenyon Sadiq was in the backfield.
51:15They could give him a carry. He runs 4-4.
51:17Give him a carry. He got a carry in this game, I think.
51:21And it wasn't even that play. Did he? But I think he did get a carry in that game.
51:27Yeah. I think we're going to see more of that.
51:30I think they just wanted to see how defenses responded to it, honestly.
51:34And it was open. I should note that. It was open.
51:37Mason Taylor, like the throw was there for the touchdown.
51:40Gino didn't take it, but the play worked. It did work.
51:44It absolutely worked. So in 2025, it was the highest rate of two tight end sets on average, more so than any
51:50other year in the NGS era at 33.2%. And week one, par for the course.
51:55League average of 33%. So we were right there with that heavy tight end usage.
51:59Has it gone too far? No, of course not.
52:02No. It can't go far enough. Can't go far.
52:04What about 0-6 personnel? Take one of the offensive linemen off the field.
52:08Get another tight end in there. Jackson Hawes, baby.
52:11He's a tackle. He is a tackle. And you never know what's going to happen.
52:16You never know what's going to happen when he's on the field.
52:19It's time for our game picks with a little bit of a confidence flare here for week two.
52:25We had a lot of fun doing this for the first time in week one.
52:29So what we're doing is we're picking our 10 favorite games.
52:32All right? We're not only picking the game, but then we're also picking a spot of how much confidence we have.
52:39We're keeping score. We're getting points for, hey, if we call this game and they were our most confident game, we're getting more points.
52:46Or if they were the least confident game, getting a little bit less.
52:50So what we're going to do is we're going to keep score throughout the entire year.
52:55And Brett, I do have your score from last week.
52:58I know you have mine. We have not revealed this to each other yet.
53:02So you didn't get your 10 spot game. You picked the Cowboys who went against the Giants, which so did I.
53:08So you didn't get your top points there with the 10 points.
53:12You missed that game. And then you missed your least confident game and then your second least confidence game.
53:17So you did pretty good here last week. You got 42 total points when it came to picking the correct team that
53:24won the game and then also where you had them in the confidence.
53:28But did I do better? That's the question. Because you have my final score in the envelope.
53:33How did I do last week? So your score starts with a four.
53:37Okay, great. Wait, good start. It ends with a zero, baby.
53:40Let's go. Week one in the books. Okay. All right.
53:43Calm down. Calm down. It's one week. It is one week.
53:46But what we're going to do is we're going to keep a tally and score.
53:51So Brett is up two points on me right now.
53:54We're not like restarting with every single week. So he is up two.
53:58So if he's up two this week and let's say you get eight points next week, then you're going to be up
54:0410 points on me on the season. So we're going to keep a score and it's going to be cumulative that way.
54:11Because if one of us gets way ahead on the scoreboard and we get to like week 17, week 18, it could
54:18be a lot of fun because one of us has to make some strong cases for some teams that might not win.
54:24So it's a way where we're going to have fun here.
54:27Picking these games, previewing these games, but also the confidence meter, I think throws a lot of fun.
54:33So if you guys want to follow along and participate on your own at home, feel free to do so.
54:39Fire them off in the comments section. We'll take a look at it.
54:43We'll go back and forth and talk with you guys about your picks.
54:47But Brett, the first game that we're talking about is Thursday Night Football.
54:50Let's get into it here. Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills.
54:55Who do you have winning and where is it in the confidence meter for you?
54:59I have Bills over Lions for one. Okay. It is my confidence level of one.
55:04Okay. It's a Thursday game. Weird stuff happens on Thursdays.
55:07I think the Lions are a genuinely good team.
55:10Now you're opening a new stadium. I think there's going to be a ton of juice in the building.
55:15But just looking at all the firepower that the Lions have, this is kind of a tough matchup for anybody to have.
55:22Even though the Lions did have to scratch and claw and fight to beat New Orleans last week.
55:27This is just the kind of game that could really go sideways.
55:31And so while I do think the Bills are going to win, just because Josh Allen is an absolute superhuman.
55:37And he's one of the only quarterbacks who I think could have beat the Texans last week.
55:42I'm not super confident either way. So I'm leaving it at my one spot.
55:46Yeah, understandable. I think you might be smart having them at the one given it's Thursday Night Football and it's two really good teams.
55:53I also have the Bills winning, but I have this in my four spot.
55:58So a little bit higher than you on the rankings.
56:01I'm a little bit more confident in the Bills.
56:03And simply put, I think you guys are going to hear a theme from my game picks.
56:08When the good quarterbacks are playing good right out of the gate, it's hard for me to bet against them.
56:14Josh Allen was unbelievable against the Houston Texans. You and I talked about this in the reaction show.
56:20We highlighted how much the Detroit Lions kind of want to play man coverage.
56:24And man, if there's somebody with some arm arrogance to really go after when you're not playing well in man coverage, it's Josh Allen.
56:31So I agree. I think the juice is going to be flowing.
56:35You're opening up the new stadium. Give me the Bills in this one and give me them at the four spot.
56:41Saints at Ravens. The next game we're talking about here.
56:44Who you got winning this one? And where is it in the ranking?
56:48I'm actually way more confident in this one. I went Baltimore over New Orleans.
56:52And it's because if you look at what Tyler Shuck did last week, again, all credit to him for that late game comeback.
56:59You know, got three touchdowns against all that man coverage from the Lions in the red zone.
57:04But they really didn't start playing man until they got to the red zone.
57:08And I look at what Baltimore does defensively with Jesse Minter.
57:12He not only calls a lot of zone coverage, he calls a lot of like very, let's say, tricky zone coverage.
57:18A lot of rotations. A lot of I'm showing you this.
57:21I'm giving you this. And Shuck really struggled against that in the first half.
57:25That was actually something he also struggled as a rookie against.
57:29And I just, I look at a very potent offense that's going to put pressure on you to score.
57:34And a defense that likes to use a lot of disguise.
57:38A lot of really kind of fancy exotic pressure looks.
57:41I'm not super confident in Shuck to be able to sort that out.
57:45I like the Saints talent. It's just this might be a game that they win next year.
57:50Not necessarily this year. So I put that at my seventh spot.
57:53I'm a little higher than you on it. Picking the same team.
57:57But I got the Ravens winning and they're at the ninth spot for me.
58:01The ninth spot feels disrespectful given. Tyler Shuck hater.
58:04How Tyler Shuck and this team played in the fourth quarter in overtime.
58:08But I echo everything that you just said there.
58:10Tyler Shuck really struggled. And I think just the chemistry with the wide receivers, the timing, the everything was just a little off in that first half.
58:18And that was heavy zone coverage stuff. Jesse Minter is great at it.
58:22They understand when Tyler Shuck was playing well. And I think they're going to do everything that they can to sort of
58:29not allow him to really be able to read the field and just say, All right, that guy's in man.
58:35It's just about me putting the ball where it needs to go in tight windows.
58:39And he's got the arm talent to do it.
58:42But when you really got to continuously think, I think that's when he was a little slow and a little hesitant to get rid of the ball.
58:50Vikings at Bears. The Bears coming off 59 points on the road in Carolina.
58:54The Vikings have a comeback themselves. It's Flores. It's Ben Johnson.
58:58What do we think here? Who you got winning this game?
59:01So Chicago scored 59 in a game. Minnesota scored 22 and a quarter.
59:05So this game is almost impossible to figure out how it's going to go.
59:09Especially because Flores and Ben Johnson have a deep history against one another.
59:13Johnson historically has been one of the only offensive minds that really does a whole lot of anything against Flores.
59:19I am picking the Bears in this game. I am not super confident in it just because, you know, NFC North shenanigans
59:26tend to happen, especially early in the season. And when these two coordinators get together, they're always throwing haymakers against each other.
59:32They do tend to get the best of each other.
59:35It's a tough game to pick. I'm going to go Bears just because I'm not 100% certain who's going to be starting for the Vikings at quarterback.
59:43As of recording this, we don't know. And, man, 59 points.
59:47It'd be kind of weird to see them put up that many points in week one and then pick against them in week two.
59:54Where do you have them in the ranking? Two spots.
59:57Not super confident. Man. So we're getting the low confidence games out of the way early for you.
60:02Again, I am picking the same team. I'm just a lot more confident.
60:06And so, you know, this is going to be very interesting if these teams win or lose.
60:11Because we're picking the same teams, we're just very different in the confidence meter.
60:15I have the Bears winning at my seventh spot.
60:18I have a lot of faith in what that offense showed us in week one.
60:22How Caleb looked. How the ground game looked. It was incredible.
60:26And, yes, the Vikings moved the ball really well and had an incredible comeback.
60:30I'm not trying to take anything away from them.
60:33Packers defense was rough. And more than that, they really struggled to hold on to possession at all whatsoever when it came to that second half.
60:40So even though I have my questions on Chicago's defense as well coming off giving up 37 points to the Carolina Panthers,
60:47I don't think there's going to be this lack of possession, this lack of time of possession, this consistency that existed with
60:54Green Bay when they faced off against Minnesota last week.
60:57And I think that was a major catalyst for why Minnesota was able to come back and look as good as they did in the second half.
61:05Because Green Bay just, I mean, they couldn't hold on to the football.
61:09There was no possession for them at all whatsoever.
61:11No efficiency. And I just don't think that's going to be the case with Chicago.
61:16The Cincinnati Bengals coming off a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
61:19Traveling to Houston to take on a Texans team that ain't used to giving up 30-plus points.
61:24And so you know they're going to be extremely motivated, but the Bengals starting off the season really hot and they normally don't do that.
61:32So you know they want to keep the momentum rolling.
61:35Who do you got winning this game? So this is in my four spot.
61:39Okay. I'm taking the Texans. All right. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these two teams are, right?
61:45Because the Bengals suddenly have a real defense. They have a real pass rush, which helps out.
61:50And the Texans suddenly have a real offense. So it's two very evenly matched teams.
61:55And the fact that Houston's starting out their season with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, it's about as difficult a start to a schedule as you can have.
62:03Last week, the Texans' Bills was at my one spot because I really wasn't sure who was going to win.
62:09And the game came down to the wire. I think this one's also going to come down to the wire.
62:15I do think the Texans are going to get the better of them just because I don't expect their defense to give up 36 again.
62:23Joe Burrow is capable of many things. There's a couple throws that Josh Allen made in that game that I'm not even
62:29sure if Joe could have done those. So I'm going to go Houston.
62:33I'm only confident at the four spot, but I do think they win.
62:37I'll go opposite side of the coin. Here we'll differ for the first time on this show in week two.
62:43I'm going to go Cincinnati Bengals, but I have them in the one spot when it comes to confidence because I really
62:50don't know who is going to win. Whoa, come on.
62:53Somebody's got to be in the one. You were just saving that for no matter what.
62:57But I think this game is going to be really, really tight.
63:01And I'm taking the Bengals simply because I was really impressed with how they were on the trenches, both offensively and defensively.
63:08When you can play the way that you did with Jamar Chase, 12 total receiving yards, you know that that's probably not going to happen again.
63:15So you're going to get Jamar involved a little bit more.
63:19I'll ride the momentum here for the Cincinnati Bengals and I'll have them winning this game.
63:23But I just have them at that one spot.
63:26The Jags and the Broncos, two totally different week one performances.
63:29The Jags just blew out the Cleveland Browns in a game that was never close.
63:34And then the Broncos laying an egg on Monday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs.
63:39What do we think about this game here? Preseason, they tell you that, hey, this is a premier game of week two.
63:45And I think that it absolutely could be. But who do you have winning and where are they in the confidence meter?
63:52I am picking the Jaguars in this game, but I do think it's going to be a tougher fight.
63:58You know, we looked at how much Bo Nix struggled against man coverage against KC.
64:02Well, the Jags don't really play a lot of man coverage.
64:05They do tend to favor zone. Anthony Campanelli, you know, he comes from both a Fangio and a Jeff Halfley influence at the same time.
64:13So he calls a lot of quarters. I think on paper, theoretically, in a vacuum, Bo Nix should be better against this Jaguars style of defense.
64:21I am worried about it. So I only have it in my sixth spot.
64:25But I do think that, you know, if you look at just the difference between how Trevor is playing right now versus
64:31how Bo is playing right now, and it is a quarterback league.
64:35Trevor is one of the early candidates for MVP after, you know, one week of play.
64:40But he was absolutely unassailable last week. I'm picking the Jags as well.
64:44I only have them at my two spot. Where did you have them in your rankings?
64:49Six. Jags. Okay, you've got the Jags at your sixth spot.
64:52I have them in the two spot. This is a game where it's hard to have concrete takeaways one way or the other.
64:59Because, yes, Jacksonville was great, but they were playing what might be the worst team in the NFL this year.
65:05The Broncos look terrible against the Chiefs. But you kind of say to yourself, my goodness, a lot of the issues that
65:11they had were on the defensive side of the ball.
65:14Is that defense really going to look that bad the entire year?
65:18I mean, they were one of the best in the NFL.
65:21They gave up the most yards after a missed tackle in NGS's database history, which goes back to 2018.
65:27So, it can't be that bad again, right? Seahawks and the Cardinals.
65:30A little interesting game. A little closer than some people maybe thought was going to be the case with the Cardinals coming off that win against the Chargers.
65:39But this one's in Arizona. What do you think about this one and where are you putting in your confidence rankings?
65:45Give me the Seahawks. Okay. Go with Drew Locke.
65:48Even with a backup quarterback, I look at not just the talent on the Seahawks team, but also the coaching staff.
65:54I think it's a tremendous coaching staff. I am fascinated to see if Jacoby Persett gets away with doing it again as
66:01far as the amount of shotgun that they were in against the Chargers.
66:05And also just the average time to throw. He had the second highest quick throw percentage across the league in week one.
66:11Only second to Joe Burrow, who got it out basically instantaneously against Tampa.
66:15And I'm not sure if the Seahawks are going to let them do that again.
66:20If the Cardinals start out 2-0, tip of the cap to you.
66:23Cool. I'm putting it at the three spot. Not super confident.
66:27I have it at the exact same spot. We're getting a lot of my low confidence games out of the way here early.
66:33I also have them in the three spot. I have the Seahawks winning.
66:37I love what I saw from the Cardinals. They looked fearless.
66:41They looked ready for that game. They didn't look like, oh, this is a team that could be picking number one overall next year.
66:48They say, screw that. You know, they certainly went into this game, went on the road in SoFi.
66:53And we're not afraid of the charges at all whatsoever.
66:56And we're the aggressors in that game. And so I don't think they're just going to be backing down from the Seahawks
67:03just because of the reigning Super Bowl champs. They're going to come out and give it their best.
67:08All that to say, Seahawks defense is special, man.
67:11I think it's still going to get after them.
67:14I think that's going to be the X factor here.
67:17Give me a little closer, obviously, with no Sam Darnold in this game.
67:20And, you know, with the run game not being as efficient or as explosive as when they had Kenneth Walker back there.
67:27But I'm still going to Seahawks here. And you mentioned if the Cardinals can come out of this game and be 2-0, holy cow.
67:34We're going to be spending some time breaking down and talking about how this team had one of the best surprise starts of any team in the NFL.
67:43So we will see. Colts to the Chiefs. Chiefs, obviously, feeling good coming off that Monday night win.
67:48Colts, man, really reeling from what felt like a blowout against the Baltimore Ravens there.
67:52What do you think about this game? Who are you picking?
67:56And where is it in the conference meter? Boy, I was confident in the Colts, you know, during the summer.
68:02Because as soon as we heard Daniel Jones is going to be back early, I was like, okay, well, I'm looking at
68:08what that offense did in the first half of last season.
68:12And they just laid an egg to the point where I was not just deeply concerned about how they matched up against Baltimore.
68:19I'm deeply concerned about how they match up against anybody.
68:22They called so much man coverage in week one, but couldn't play man coverage.
68:26Right. Their corners even gave like the corners are supposed to be a thing they hang their hat on in that defense.
68:32They gave up a lot of yards in man coverage.
68:35So if they can't do that defensively, I don't feel great about how they match up against Kansas City, who have all
68:42sorts of ways to just break guys open in man coverage.
68:45Not necessarily by being good route runners. I'm talking like formation wise and using motions.
68:50And then defensively, I think Kansas City's defense played so well.
68:53And I have real, real concerns about how the Colts are going to come out against that.
68:58So give me the Chiefs in this game. I'm putting it basically dead in the middle at five.
69:04But based on what we saw in week one, I don't know if I could justify picking Indianapolis.
69:09I got the Chiefs at the eighth spot here.
69:12I'm pretty confident in this one because if the Chiefs can look the way that they did with Patrick Mahomes not completing
69:18a single pass beyond 10 air yards, sky is pretty much the limit at that point.
69:23I think the first and foremost is the are the Colts going to be able to stop the run game with Kenneth Walker.
69:30And then if you are OK, well, now you've got to deal with like you mentioned, Andy Reed, who's very, very good
69:36at dialing up these man beaters type of play concepts.
69:39And he's got a great quarterback when it comes to timing and overall arm strength to be able to hit these fast receivers to get them the ball.
69:48I think the Colts are still going to be able to run the ball well, just like they did against the Ravens.
69:54But what else outside of that? That's my question with the Colts.
69:58What are you outside of what we thought you kind of already were?
70:02Can you be anything above and beyond that? Steelers at Patriots.
70:05How do we feel about this game? Who's winning this one?
70:09I put this at my eighth spot. OK. For who?
70:12New England over Pittsburgh. OK. All right. OK. All right.
70:15Really bad picks in the second half. I get it.
70:18Drake May. That was the worst game of his career.
70:21Might be the worst game he's played even going back to college.
70:24It was almost like sophomore level UNC Drake May.
70:27McDonald's started blitzing way more in the second half to try to get them into more second and longs, third and longs.
70:33And Drake was like, I got to make a play.
70:36I got to do something. You're up 10-0. No, you don't.
70:40Right? And that's a young quarterback trying to put the game in his hands when he really didn't have to.
70:46And I think that was probably the best thing that could have happened to him in week one because he learned a lesson.
70:53Of course, they lose A.J. Brown in that game.
70:55So there were some longer ramifications. But he learned a lesson that he really needed to learn again.
71:01And now he's going against a Steelers team that...
71:03I don't know if anybody watched the Steelers offense in week one.
71:07Not great. No. Still not super explosive. Defense is great.
71:10I mean, they were able to really get a ton of pressure, at least.
71:14Although they didn't play a single rep of man coverage at all.
71:18So it'll be interesting to see if they just have a little bit more respect for what Drake May can do in that respect.
71:25I'm taking the Patriots as well. I'll put them in my sixth spot.
71:29I'll go Patriots over Steelers. Commanders at the Cowboys.
71:32Now, hold on. Before you answer this, if I'm keeping score correctly at home, you still have your nine and your ten spot open.
71:39One of these two last games. It's your most confident game and then your second most confident game.
71:44Where are the Cowboys at... Or sorry, no, it's the Commanders at the Cowboys.
71:48So this one's in Dallas. Where is that one for you?
71:52That's my tenner. I have the Cowboys. You're putting the Cowboys at the ten spot again?
71:56Second time in a row. You maniac. I can't be wrong twice in a row, Trev.
72:01Have you not learned? I'm going to be digging out of this hole until Christmas, dude.
72:06I'm also picking the Cowboys, by the way, but they're the five spot for me.
72:10So I'm picking the same team that's a little further down.
72:14So if the Commanders get the upset here, you might be in trouble, my friend.
72:18Dude, if the Commanders get the upset, I am hosed, but it's okay.
72:22If you just look at A, the Cowboys' offense in week one, they only had seven possessions.
72:27They scored on four of them. The offense was not the problem.
72:31The defense was. And some of the errors on defense I think are very correctable.
72:35If you look at the Commanders' offense in week one, they have structural issues that are not really correctable like that.
72:42They just didn't have the talent up front. They could not block Philly whatsoever.
72:46I'm not confident in this Commanders' team whatsoever. And while I do respect the hell out of them for coming back against
72:52the Eagles and almost tying it up, they were down for a reason.
72:56I'm with you, and that's why I'm going with the Cowboys.
73:00But it's going to be worth monitoring very, very closely.
73:03A lot of mental errors and some reps where the effort wasn't as good as you wanted it to be from that Cowboys' defense overall.
73:10And you go, okay, hold on here. If we get anything that's close to a repeat performance of those elements, you start to get worried about Dallas.
73:18But for now, I'll think that, hey, those guys probably watched the tape, said we do not want to put that out there ever again.
73:26It's going to look different. I'm also taking the Cowboys, but I got them at the five spot.
73:31Which means Rams and the Giants. I've got it at the 10 spot, most confident game.
73:36You've got it at the nine spot, your second most confident game here.
73:40Of course, you're taking the Giants, right? I mean, the Giants are on the roll.
73:44You've got to be taking the Giants here, right?
73:47Right? Right? I'm backing you in a corner to make you pick the Giants here.
73:51I'm a coward. I can't do it. I'm going Rams, dude.
73:55I am too. If this Rams team started out as the heavy, heavy, heavy choice for everybody to win the Super Bowl,
74:01and they start 0-2, that might be the story of the first quarter of the season.
74:06You have Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP. You have Puka.
74:09You have Devonta. You have a run game that was really, really effective last year.
74:14And on the defensive line, you still have Kobe and Byron and Brayden.
74:18And you bring it in McDuffie and Watson. I can't imagine this team lays that much of an egg again.
74:24I thought it was just a recipe for failure, how they handled everything in Week 1.
74:28And I think a lot of that naturally gets remedied in Week 2.
74:32If the Giants win this game, if the Rams start 0-2, boy, that's going to be an interesting breakdown for us on the reaction show.
74:40Because I got the Rams at my 10th spot, most confident game for them to bounce back and get this win.
74:46You got up at the 9th spot. All right.
74:49That's all the time that we had here for this show.
74:52We love you guys. Thank you so much for all of the questions.
74:56You gave so many incredible questions that, honestly, we talked to the staff.
75:00We're like, do we even need to just have a separate show just for questions?
75:04Because we want to get you guys involved in the show as much as possible.
75:09Because we really, really appreciate all the engagement, all the love from you guys.
75:13It makes this a lot of fun every single week.
75:16Thank you guys so much for watching. If you guys want to see, whether it's the film or the data or whatever
75:23it is, we're using NFL Pro for all this stuff.
75:26So that paired with NGS. Make sure you guys have a subscription to those things.
75:30And you can find a lot of this information out yourself.
75:33But thank you for hanging out with us. We appreciate it.
75:37We will be back with you on Monday for our reaction show of everything that we're about to see here in week two.
75:44We'll see you guys then.