PodcastFrom NFL: The Insiders
Are NFL Offenses Broken? | Week 4 Reactions
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 5, 2026
Published
Mon, October 5, 2026
20
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Bo NixC.J. StroudCam WardCeeDee LambChase BrownDak PrescottDaniel JonesJalen HurtsJoe BurrowJonathan TaylorJustin HerbertKenneth Walker IIIKirk CousinsMarcus Mariota
Player analysis
Player insights
Bo Nix
NegativeUsage39:02
Bo Nix's passing usage was extremely conservative against San Francisco, completing only one of nine passes of 10+ air yards and failing to attempt a pass of 20+ air yards until the final two minutes of the game.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection27:25
Despite the Texans' loss, C.J. Stroud played exceptionally well, finishing with a 126.7 passer rating, 11.2 yards per attempt, and a 57.1% dropback success rate, which was 13% higher than Dallas's success rate.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection37:49
Cam Ward is described as a hard worker with talent, but he is currently in a difficult situation that mirrors other young quarterbacks who were drafted into poor environments and were not ready to start immediately.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveUsage22:12
CeeDee Lamb dominated the Texans' secondary, recording 17 catches in the game. He was consistently getting open at will, even against a talented secondary that includes Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeUsage3:29
On a critical fourth-and-ten play against Jacksonville, Joe Burrow targeted Chase Brown well before the first-down marker, relying on him to create momentum and make a defender miss; however, Jacksonville's defense successfully rallied to make the tackle, ending the drive.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection23:12
Dak Prescott was on a heater against the Texans, particularly on deep passes. He went 6-of-7 for 148 yards and a touchdown on passes over 15 yards, resulting in a perfect 158.3 passer rating on those attempts.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection43:35
Daniel Jones struggled significantly against the Colts, posting poor efficiency stats (3.9 yards per attempt, 44.9 passer rating) before the team stopped letting him throw in the second half. The source questions if the version of Jones seen in the first half of last season will ever return.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage17:12
Jalen Hurts faced the second-highest pressure rate of his career against the Rams, who blitzed on over 60% of plays. Hurts struggled against the blitz, completing only 5 of 16 passes for 46 yards, though he did record one touchdown.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeUsage30:19
Joe Burrow appeared frustrated against the Jaguars' defense, which utilized 81% zone drops and a low 19% blitz rate. The defensive scheme forced Burrow into uncharacteristic throws due to the mounting pressure of the coverage and tackling.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveUsage43:28
Jonathan Taylor saw increased usage in the second half of the Colts' win as the team leaned on the run game to protect their lead.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeProjection40:42
Justin Herbert is struggling significantly, looking like a shell of his potential. He threw two interceptions against Seattle and appears frustrated, with his decision-making and accuracy failing to meet expectations early in the season.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage27:11
Kenneth Walker had a massive performance against the Raiders, recording 22 carries for 177 rushing yards, setting a new career high.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveUsage30:31
Kirk Cousins is playing at a high level, evidenced by 365 passing yards on 52 attempts. His veteran experience is particularly valuable in play-action schemes where he is asked to turn his back to the defense, demonstrating decisive, quick decision-making.
Insight pageMarcus Mariota
NegativeInjury42:32
Marcus Mariota exited the game against the Colts due to injury, forcing the Commanders to turn to their third-string quarterback.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection18:51
Matthew Stafford is not playing at the same 'insanely accurate MVP level' he displayed last year. With the Rams' wide receivers consistently ranking last in the NFL in average separation (3.0 yards), Stafford's margin for error has significantly decreased compared to the 2025 season.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveUsage27:34
Patrick Mahomes dominated against cover zero looks in the Raiders game, going 4-for-5 for 102 yards, one touchdown, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. However, he struggled against cover three, completing only 6 of 12 passes for 41 yards.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveUsage32:33
Trevor Lawrence served as a stabilizing force for the Jaguars, taking care of the ball, avoiding back-breaking interceptions, and making sound decisions throughout a chaotic, penalty-filled game.
Insight pageTyquan Thornton
NegativeInjury25:45
Tyquan Thornton suffered a horrific injury late in the game against the Raiders after catching a deep pass from Patrick Mahomes.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveBreakout25:39
Xavier Worthy was a key target for Patrick Mahomes, catching a deep bomb early in the game against the Raiders.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage37:23
Zay Flowers continues to be a major factor for the Ravens' offense whenever he is healthy, with his presence making a significant difference in the team's performance.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 4 Reaction Podcast.
0:03Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:08Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:11Is offense in the NFL broken? We are four weeks into the 2026 NFL season and we are already asking that question.
0:17And he fights his way! Trevor Sikkema, Brett Coleman here with you guys on another episode of NFL Pro.
0:23We're recapping so much of what we saw from the Sunday slate in Week 4 of the NFL.
0:29And Brett, all jokes aside, this week teams converted on third down on just 34.4% of their attempts, the lowest rate in a single week since 2017.
0:37See, we can phrase it one of two ways.
0:40Either offense is broken or defense is back. So we can be optimist or pessimist here.
0:45You know, you've been in the sports media landscape long enough to where the thumbnail needs to be both of us doing
0:52this, you know, and it's just offense is broken in the NFL.
0:55So no, but there are two sides of the coin.
0:58But I think there's some more layers to peel back from it as well.
1:03I mean, the biggest difference between this week and Week 1 is that defenses can now tackle, right?
1:08That's what we talked about after Week 1, all the yards after contact that happened in Week 1, the super high explosive rates.
1:15Every single week since Week 1, the missed tackle rate, specifically on third down, has gotten better.
1:21It was 14.6% Week 1, which is a bad missed tackle rate, down to 12.7% Week 2, 10.8% Week 3, 7% as of us recording this.
1:29We're not done with Week 1 as of recording, but as of recording this.
1:33A 7% missed tackle rate on third down is half of what it was three weeks ago.
1:38So yeah, you're not going to convert on third down if you're not breaking any tackles whatsoever, especially when most third downs
1:45are going to be third and seven plus, generally speaking.
1:48So I think to me, it's just defenders kind of shaking the rust off and learning how to tackle and get guys on the ground again.
1:56Yeah, and one of the games, at least one that pops into my mind immediately, this stat came to life.
2:02It was that Bengals-Jags game, which we'll talk a little bit more a little bit later in the show, but that fourth
2:09and ten play for the Bengals, Joe Burrow hit Chase Brown well before the first down mark, and what are you hoping?
2:16You're hoping, hey, I'm getting the ball to my guy with momentum, going the direction I want him to go.
2:22He's just got to make somebody miss, and it was a great rally and tackle by Jacksonville, and that ended up being the game right there.
2:30And he's upended close to the first down marker.
2:33He's short. Reckon Lane tripped him up. He's going to be short.
2:37On third and short, so third and one to two yards to game, 60.3% conversion, right?
2:42Okay, it makes sense. That's pretty high. Obviously, you don't have a long way to go.
2:47Third and medium, so three to six yards to gain, right around 43.9%, but then also, Brett, third and long, so third
2:53and seven plus, just a 15.6% conversion rate, and there were 167 plays that were third and long that go into this.
3:00To me, that 15.6% conversion rate speaks right to what you were just saying, the missed tackle rate of, hey, we've got
3:07these plays where sometimes the quarterbacks feel like they've got to pass it beyond the sticks, and they've got to do the work to get the conversion.
3:15But there are other times, certainly we saw this week, where offenses were very clearly motivated to just let their playmakers make
3:22plays, and defenses just were not having it this week.
3:25And I do think that, all jokes aside from how I introed the show, that is a cool thing that defenses have
3:32stepped up this much to cut the missed tackle rate from week one in half already.
3:37And you're pairing a lot of these zone coverages with pressure, where the entire goal is just to force a quick throw.
3:44Like, yeah, we'd love to get a sack, but really, we would just love to speed up the quarterback so that they can't throw deep.
3:52Like, that's the whole goal. Just eliminate the deep pass through pressure.
3:55Like, the pressure is the coverage. And if we can just force a quick throw and then rally and tackle, that's the entire point of a zero blitz.
4:04Because most quarterbacks are going to identify, okay, there's more rushers than there's blockers.
4:08I have to get it out. You know, the entire goal is just, you have to throw it under five yards and
4:15see if you can make us miss. And at least this week, nobody could.
4:19Yeah, and I think that that's just an overall strategy, like you said, of how you handle these super talented quarterbacks.
4:26And it was just a little bit of a microcosm of that strategy and that plan working for defenses here in week four.
4:33We'll see how the offense is punched back in the next couple of weeks.
4:37Maybe it is pushing the ball a little bit further.
4:40Not as much, hey, dump it off and not giving these teams a chance to rally and tackle.
4:46And all of that is a perfect transition in the first game that we wanted to talk about here because lack of
4:53third down success very much went into the Philadelphia Eagles not being able to hold on to that game, losing to the Los Angeles Rams.
5:01And we talked in the preview show saying, whoever loses this game, the short-term outlook at least, we start to hit the
5:07panic button a little bit for these teams. There's execution errors.
5:11There's coaching errors. Everybody contributes to it. It's an ultimate team game.
5:14Rams end up winning. Eagles lost a slew of injuries for the Eagles that they've been through this season.
5:20But no matter how you slice it, going 0-12 on third down for Philadelphia, I don't care if you had your starters
5:27out there to make up for it or what.
5:30It's never going to be a recipe for success.
5:330-12 for Philadelphia. It was the worst third down performance in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles.
5:38They've been around for a long time. I believe it.
5:41That's how bad that was. And it's so easy for people to jump on Jalen Hurts and say it's all his fault
5:48or it's all the offensive line's fault, specifically Cam Juergens or the receivers or whatever, or Nick Sirianni or Sean Mannion.
5:54The reality is, if you go 0-12, it's everybody's fault.
5:57Everybody had to be bad for that to happen.
6:00And I think they were all bad in their own ways, and they just all combined into this miserable vortex of badness that resulted in 0-12.
6:08Not the vortex of badness! The vortex of badness.
6:11It was hard to watch. Like, genuinely, it was hard to watch.
6:15And it was one of those games where they jumped out in front and they had a, I guess you'd call it
6:22a commanding lead, but it didn't feel real, right?
6:24Because you get two interceptions on Matthew Stafford, you get a 40-plus yard punt return.
6:29Like, that led to 17 points by itself. And it just, it felt like, yes, the Eagles were capitalizing on mistakes, but
6:36it sure felt like, man, it kind of feels like the Rams are just making a bunch of mistakes here, not necessarily that they're getting massively outplayed.
6:44What happens if the Rams start playing a clean game?
6:47And we saw that in the second half. They started playing like themselves, and the weight of the Rams' talent relative to
6:54the weight of the Eagles' talent that they had left that wasn't injured yet.
6:58That really bore out in the second half. And I think what was really frustrating for Eagles fans is they could feel
7:05that, and they knew, not that they were getting away with one, but they knew that, like, this was a game that
7:12they probably weren't supposed to win because of all the injuries.
7:15And yet, late in the game, they had a 96% chance to win.
7:19They were on the Rams' two-yard line. They're up by 10.
7:23They can take a 17-0 lead. And you're feeling great as an Eagles fan because this isn't a game that you're supposed
7:30to be in, let alone winning this handily. And then that third and two happened.
7:34Speaking of somebody who was a spotter, by the way, back in the day, things happen quickly, right?
7:40And the spotters have a few seconds to try to point something out to the broadcast crew before we move on to
7:47the next play, especially if it's a third down going into a fourth and goal opportunity.
7:51It's hard to see things in real time. And at the time, on that kind of bobbled snap that led to what
7:58I guess you can call an improvised run by Jalen Hurts that got stopped short of the goal line, you know, the
8:05broadcast crew said, oh, the snap got bobbled, messy exchange, it happens, whatever, move on to fourth down.
8:11But again, some of the basic fundamentals, he dropped the snap, can't turn his body in time, and he does a good
8:17job getting back to the line of scrimmage. Looks like he had a good crease there for him behind that triple team block.
8:25Oh, so frustrating. Well, the advantage that you and I have here at NFL Pro is we have access to every single
8:31camera angle, whether it made the broadcast or not, in that little 20-second window between third and fourth down.
8:37So I took the opportunity to go back and look at every single camera angle and see, was it just a bad snap or did something else happen?
8:46And I found two different angles that tell an entirely different story.
8:50And this will make Eagles fans sick. Cam Juergens, who's not exactly popular in Philadelphia these days, he false started on this play, but it didn't get called.
8:58Eagles fans probably wish it would. This false start meant that he was pulling early.
9:03Before Jalen Hurts could actually fully get a handle of the snap and then pivot and hand the ball off.
9:09And so when Cam Juergens false started and pulled, his hand hit the ball in Jalen Hurts' hand.
9:15So that's what caused the bobble, which means he couldn't pivot and hand it off, which means the play got broken.
9:21If the exchange happened cleanly, i.e. if Cam Juergens didn't false start, that probably scores.
9:26And the Eagles do go up by 17 points.
9:29And at that point, that late surge by the Rams likely doesn't matter.
9:33And we're talking about a completely different game at that point.
9:36All Cam Juergens had to do was not false start and run into Jalen Hurts, and this is a totally different conversation.
9:43But it was a very subtle mistake that the broadcast didn't catch at the time.
9:47Not that I blame them. Like, I had to hunt through 15 different angles to find it.
9:53But that's the real story of what happened. And then you get to the fourth and goal situation, where we're calling a
9:59shotgun pass on fourth and short, which is not something that I like anyway.
10:04It wasn't a call that I would have leaned on in that situation.
10:08I would have preferred either an under center run or under center play action.
10:12But that's neither here nor there. But I just wanted to set the record straight of what happened in that goal line sequence because that was the game.
10:21The Rams then mounted a 98-yard touchdown drive, completely flipped everything.
10:24But it wasn't on Jalen. It was on his left guard.
10:28Yeah, and it was tough sledding, I think, just for the entire Philadelphia offense.
10:32Hurts, second highest pressure face in a game in his career.
10:35Not just this season, but his career. Rams also blitzed on more than 60% of their plays.
10:41Highest blitz rate in a single game they've ever had under Chris Shula, their defensive coordinator.
10:4613 pressures, two sacks on 18 blitzes. That's an insanely high success rate.
10:50And Hurts versus the blitz. I mean, he wasn't good versus the blitz.
10:545 for 16, 46 total passing yards. He did have a touchdown against the blitz.
10:58But like you said, they were kind of barely hanging on.
11:02But I want to say this too. Not that I want this game review to be all negative, but do you really feel great about the Rams winning?
11:10I mean, sure, they obviously came back and it was kind of vintage of what we saw from the Rams last year
11:17when we felt really good about them. But I think to myself, it took you a long time in the game to get to that point.
11:25And Brett, specifically something that's been bothering me about the Rams was their lack of separation for wide receivers.
11:31They have the lowest average separation to their pass catchers in the NFL at just 3.0 this season.
11:37Now, I looked at it last year. They were also the lowest in the NFL at 3.1.
11:42So it's basically the same offense. The only difference is Matthew Stafford was playing at an insanely accurate MVP level last year, and he's not this year.
11:50And that little margin for error is now turning into a big margin for error for this team.
11:56So look, maybe this is the kick in the pants that they needed.
12:00But man, I don't know how much better I feel about the Rams, even the fact that they got the win in this game.
12:07This offense still looks incredibly difficult every single week.
12:10And they just happened to go up against a Philadelphia team that was 0 for 12 on third down, could have still
12:17won the game anyways at the goal line, like you mentioned.
12:20It was just, this game was two teams that have playoffs aspirations that I feel like it was a mess.
12:26Any final thoughts on this one before we move on to the next game?
12:31It's the kind of game that even if you win, you know, you're silently staring out the window for the rest of
12:37the evening just saying, oh my God, how did we survive that?
12:41Like nobody actually won that one. You just live through it.
12:45Well, the Rams survived it. And I suppose that's all that really matters given the schedule that they have upcoming because they play the Buffalo Bills next.
12:53We've tried to, you know, do a lot of things that were not in alignment with what is winning football, but you
13:00can't win it until the fourth quarter. And our guys came alive when they did.
13:04We got to talk about the undefeated matchup of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders because the people have
13:11been in the comments for a couple of weeks on us saying, hey, we got to talk about the Raiders more.
13:18We got to talk about the Raiders more. We previewed the game last week on the Friday episode.
13:23And I got to say, man, this game absolutely lived up to the billing.
13:28This was a fantastic showdown. And when we were going through our picks for who we thought was going to win this
13:34game, I talked about how, hey, I'm taking the Chiefs, but I think this is going to be a really close game.
13:41I didn't even think that it would be this close.
13:44This game was a ton of fun until the very end.
13:48And we just came off of a game where I said, I don't know if I'd feel good if I was either team, the Rams or the Eagles.
13:56I'd kind of feel great if I'm either team, the Chiefs or the Raiders.
14:01And I know the Raiders are going to say, hey, no moral victories, no moral.
14:05But you got to think about what this team was even just last year.
14:10You know you're right there with the Kansas City Chiefs given how good this team is playing.
14:15And I'll talk about Mahomes a little bit more in a second, but what'd you think about this game?
14:21What's your main takeaway here from Raiders Chiefs? Man, they gave them all they could handle.
14:26Like, yeah, it was right there for the taking.
14:28And to get two touchdowns in 19 seconds, it was indicative of the kind of program the Chiefs are.
14:34Like, last year notwithstanding, last year was just, let's talk about a vortex of badness.
14:39It's the 2025 Chiefs. But this is what this team has always been.
14:43They find a way in the fourth quarter. You know, they get a big play on special teams.
14:49I would say two big plays on special teams between the punch out by Jeff Bassa and then the incredible punt coverage
14:55that got down at the one yard line. That third phase really showed up for Kansas City in a matchup that we
15:02thought was going to be, you know, not defined by, but we knew that special teams was going to be a big
15:09factor in this one because these were two good special teams units going at it.
15:14In this game, in terms of special teams EPA per play, Kansas City was plus 0.27.
15:19Vegas uncharacteristically was minus 0.27. And it was largely because of that fumble on the kickoff return.
15:24And that was kind of the difference in the game.
15:27Like these two teams were going blow for blow.
15:30Like they were making plays on offense. They were making plays on defense.
15:34The Raiders were frustrating them, but Mahomes hit these two big bombs deep down the field.
15:39One to Xavier Worthy early on, one to Tyquan late in the game, unfortunately resulted in a horrific injury to Tyquan Thornton.
15:45And we hope he heals up. But as far as the play itself, it was exactly what they needed.
15:51You know, I thought the Raiders defensive staff was probably incensed because this was not a man coverage team on third down going into this week.
15:59They were not a big blitz team on third down going into this week.
16:04And yet those two deep shots on third down were against man blitzes.
16:08I'm sure they're like, how did they know that was coming?
16:11Because they were perfect play calls against man blitzes and Mahomes at both of them.
16:16So I just, I love this game, man. The coaches were great.
16:19The players were great. It was back and forth, all three phases.
16:23Like this was, this was damn good football. Yeah, look, if you're the Raiders, you would have liked to defend the run a little bit better.
16:31Kenneth Walker, 22 carries, 177 rushing yards, which is a new career high after he set his previous career high in week one of this season.
16:39So look, Kenneth Walker was unbelievable, but he's been unbelievable the entire season.
16:43If you are a Raiders fan and if you're in that locker room, you got to feel good about the game plan
16:50that you put out there when it came to stopping Patrick Mahomes.
16:54Because you mentioned this, Mahomes did most of his damage against the cover zero plays that he faced.
16:59Mahomes in this game, four for five, 102 passing yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a 158.3 passer rating against cover zero.
17:06You look at all the other coverages that he faced against cover three, which he saw more than 40% of the time in this game.
17:14Six for 12, 41 passing yards, 58 passer rating.
17:17I mean, cover four, three for six for 60 yards, and he had a touchdown, which helps the QBR.
17:22But it's like, you look at so many of these other statistics for Mahomes passing.
17:27Nine for 21 on passes where he had more than two and a half seconds to throw the ball.
17:33A lot of times, if you don't get to Mahomes, if Mahomes has got more time to throw it, he's going to find the guy.
17:41He's going to absolutely kill you if you don't get to him.
17:44And in fact, it was the opposite. They played so well in coverage for such an extended period of time.
17:51His average time to throw was over three seconds in this game, and it was not effective, at least, outside of the man coverage reps that he faced.
17:59So, I look at this game and I go, God, the Raiders were so close.
18:04The Raiders were so close. And even with everything that we just talked about there, if you don't have the fumble on
18:11special teams there in the fourth quarter, you may have still won this game.
18:15So, to me, I know everybody hates moral victories, but you gotta feel good if you're a Raiders fan with this game.
18:22I think it's bittersweet, right? Because you know you can hang.
18:25And you know that the 3-0 start wasn't fraudulent because you hung with this team and you had them on the ropes.
18:32And I think, if I'm a Raiders fan, I am upset because it's an opportunity, but you know it's not the only opportunity.
18:39And that's the key takeaway. They're not gonna go away.
18:42Like, they are in this race. Especially when you got the Texans falling to 0-4, the Chargers falling to 0-4.
18:48Like, good teams are playing bad all over the league.
18:52And here you have the Raiders surging to a 3-1 start and hanging with a team that we all expect to be there in the end.
19:00If I'm the Raiders, I'm thinking, okay, I'm not just gonna be the plucky 7 seed.
19:05I might be able to make a play for the AFC West here.
19:09And if I'm a Raiders fan, it feels pretty damn good because I don't remember the last time Raiders fans could actually think about that in October.
19:17First of all, don't call us plucky. We don't know what it means.
19:21That's a fancy word. I'm gonna take that as an insult.
19:24Shout out to Avengers Infinity War for that one.
19:27By the way, before we move on, Kirk Cousins continues to look good.
19:31Dude, 31 for 52. That's right. I said 31 and then the second number that I mentioned, which was the amount of
19:38attempts that he had in the game, was 52.
19:41It's the first time that he's had that many passing attempts since week 5 in 2024 when he had 58 passing attempts
19:47against, yeah, of course, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 365 passing yards in this game, though.
19:52To me, Brett, I love what Kirk brings to the table.
19:56We have talked about this multiple times. The way that he is playing, you understand why Fernando Mendoza is still on the
20:02sideline because it's that veteran presence, especially, I always look at those play-action plays where Clint Kubiak is asking Kirk Cousins to
20:09fully turn his back to the line of scrimmage and to the defense, really sell the play-action and then immediately turn around
20:16and he knows exactly what he is going to see.
20:19You only get that from reps, from experience, from years in the league.
20:23And having those play-action plays and yet still a decisive ability to get the ball out of your hands quickly exactly where
20:30it needs to go, that's what we're seeing from Kirk.
20:33And so, I feel really good about where Kirk Cousins is right now.
20:37And I wouldn't have said that certainly the last couple of years that he was in Atlanta I was not saying that.
20:44And I wondered if it was like, all right, you signed Kirk Cousins to start early on this team ahead of Fernando
20:51Mendoza, but is that more pageantry than anything else?
20:53It is not. Especially compared to the recent historical quarterback performances up in Minnesota.
20:58I'm going to refrain from saying something that will make Vikings fans even more sad than they already are, but...
21:04How sad can you be at 4-0? How sad can you be at 4-0?
21:08Not all 4-0 is the same, man. Hey! Hey!
21:11They had 72 plays and scored 15 points. Come on, man.
21:14Those 15 points were enough to get the win.
21:17It wouldn't have been close to getting the win against Dallas and Houston today who, man, 64 total points in this next game that we're hitting here.
21:25Dallas comes away with the win. And the exact opposite of 4-0 is unfortunately what the Houston Texans are in this game.
21:32I don't know. When you think of the Cowboys and the Texans, this matchup, is the takeaway more about the Cowboys or is it more about the Texans?
21:41What do you think? Where do you want to start with this one?
21:45Would you rather get into a shootout with the Dallas Cowboys or John Wick?
21:49I kind of go back. I think you're dead either way.
21:53And the Texans still chose to do it. I've seen all 4 movies and yeah, I think that you are dead either way.
22:00So yeah. And I've seen all 4 Cowboys games to start the season.
22:04So yes. It's just box office. I mean both.
22:07The John Wick movies and the Cowboys offense. Oh 100%.
22:10I'm there opening weekend every single time. Doesn't matter.
22:12The movies are exactly the same. The movies are exactly the same every single time.
22:17And I'm basically front row every single time on opening weekend.
22:21But that is how the Cowboys offense I literally don't care.
22:24It's like oh, I'm going to watch Keanu just do crazy stuff for the next two hours?
22:29Great. I'm going to watch Dak and CD. That's Dak.
22:32That's Dak. Yeah. Once we got to like 15 catches, I pretty much understood where this was going and then they just
22:39added a few more on top of that. What about the 16th one?
22:43What about the 17th one? They just couldn't stop him.
22:46They could not stop CD Lamb. And this is a good secondary.
22:50Like it's not like Derek Stingley and Kabari Lasseter and Jalen Petrie and Bullock.
22:54Like they can all play. I mean, the season doesn't look like they can, but in theory, in a vacuum, they're good DBs.
23:01This is a good secondary. And they just got cooked in this game.
23:05CD was getting open at will. George Pickens made a catch in this game where he wasn't open at all and still
23:12made it anyway because he's George Pickens. Like Dak was on a heater.
23:16If you're looking at just his passing stats over 15 yards, this is absurd.
23:20He was six of seven for 148. So almost 150 yards in just seven attempts here.
23:25A 158.3 rating. That is perfect. He had a touchdown at yards per attempt of 21.1.
23:30So he got anything he wanted deep down the field, even against this Texans defense.
23:35Under 15 yards was still pretty damn good as well.
23:38But it was really the explosive plays that were the difference in this one.
23:42The stars came out, man. No pun intended. I just...
23:46CJ Stroud played great and it didn't matter. It really didn't matter at all.
23:50Kamari Lassiter, you brought his name up and Kamari, man, he's a hell of a corner.
23:55But allowed eight receptions for 136 yards on 11 targets and over 50 coverage snaps played today.
24:00This is one of... I gotta think it's gotta be the worst Kamari Lassner game that he has played so far in
24:07his career because he is only getting better. Brett, I was looking this up with the Texans defense because I...
24:13I had these question marks myself because you're right.
24:16This was not a CJ Stroud issue type of a game.
24:19It'd be one thing if the defense was playing as good as it was last year and CJ was consistently struggling.
24:26It'd be an easy thing to just say, hey, the offense isn't working.
24:30And look, going into this week, they were struggling on short yardage situations, converting on the ground when it came to those third and fourth and short situations.
24:38So that's still something to monitor throughout this season.
24:41But when you play the way that the offense did today, you give yourself a chance to win ballgames and this defense
24:48should have been able to win them this ballgame even against the Cowboys secondary.
24:52But I tried to look up some stats for the Texans so far this year versus what they were last year.
24:59And I was like, man, are they playing more zone and more man?
25:03No, the rates are pretty much the same. Are they playing more cover three?
25:07Are they playing more cover four? More split safety stuff?
25:10More single high safety stuff? No, the rates are kind of the same.
25:14Okay, well, what about separation from receivers? You know, are they giving up more average separation when the ball's getting there?
25:21Not really. The only difference that I could find really with the Texans is something that every coach preaches, honestly.
25:27They are the worst team in the NFL so far through four weeks when it comes to explosive play rate allowed.
25:33They are over 20%, 21.4% of the time they are giving up an explosive play.
25:38It was just 16.5% last season. And then when you look at them as a turnover defense last year, they were top
25:4510 in the NFL in fumbles, recovered, and they were third in the NFL in total interceptions last season.
25:51So far through four weeks this year, one recovered fumble, one interception.
25:54You're giving up more explosive plays. You're not taking the ball away.
25:58The rest of the stuff, like you mentioned, this is a talented secondary.
26:02This is a talented defensive line. This is a talented team.
26:06They're just not coming away with the big plays on their end and they're giving up way more big plays on the offense's end.
26:13And until that changes, we're not going to be able to talk about this Texans team as a turnaround type of a team.
26:20And even now, the 0-4 hole, I mean, forget the division.
26:24I mean, you're just hoping you make the playoffs at this point.
26:27You are hoping that there is some way that you make the playoffs.
26:31But anything else on this team? It's only been done once, by the way.
26:36I was literally a baby. It was the early 90s Chargers are the only team that's ever dug out of an 0-4 hole to make the playoffs.
26:44I think it was 92 off the top of my head.
26:47And maybe, okay, the 17th game gives them a little bit more wiggle room because there was less tolerance for it when there was a 16-game schedule.
26:56But even then, you can lose maybe two more games the entire rest of the year.
27:01And we have a lot of games to play.
27:03And I do have a lot of, I don't really have a lot of confidence in them doing that.
27:09So, yeah, I have egg on my face. I thought this team could have challenged for the AFC.
27:15I never in a million years thought it was going to be the defense that's the issue.
27:20Meanwhile, CJ Stroud, I just want to read off his numbers and give him his flowers.
27:25He was not the problem. He had a 126.7 passer rating.
27:28He was 11.2 yards per attempt. His completion percentage over expected was 14.2%.
27:32Dropback success rate was 57.1%. We praise the Cowboys.
27:35That's like 13% higher in dropback success rate than even Dallas was today.
27:39They had 51 plays the entire game and put up like 400 yards of offense.
27:44CJ was awesome. I never thought the defense would be the problem with this team.
27:49Really quick, I'm going to list off the schedule because this is actually more interesting than I thought it was going to
27:55be for the Texas schedule because we talked about it being dire.
27:59Okay? It's at Tennessee next week. It's overseas versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.
28:03Okay? Neutral site game. Versus the Giants by week at the Chargers at the Browns versus the Colts versus the Ravens at
28:10the Steelers at the Commanders versus Jacksonville at Philadelphia at Green Bay versus Tennessee.
28:14It's doable. It's... Boy, it's doable. To go on a run, it's doable.
28:18You have to thread every needle while hitting every green light to do it.
28:22They did it from 0-3 last year if they could do it from 0-4 this year.
28:27That's the thrill, baby. That's the thrill that's being alive.
28:30That's being a Texans fan. Man... This sucks, Trevor.
28:33This is why you watch. You're just lucky I don't make you do a segment on the Bucs every week like I
28:40have to do a segment on the Texans every week.
28:43I'm the only one that has to validate my trauma on this show, not you.
28:48Hey, the Bucs segment happened on Saturday when we got to watch future Buccaneer Jeremiah Smith do his thing once again for Ohio State.
28:55But we can talk about that when we get more to draft season.
28:59Cincinnati. Jags get out of Cincinnati with a win here, a hard-fought victory, that is for sure.
29:04This game definitely lived up to the billing. It wasn't as top-tier execution on offense type of a game like maybe we
29:11thought with a potential firework show, but Jamar Chase goes out of this game, T.
29:16Higgins goes out of this game for a little bit.
29:19The Jags offense wasn't quite explosive, but Brett, where I want to start this is to give flowers to the Jags defense
29:26and how they're playing because the Bengals had just 23 total rushing yards on 15 carries in this game, and I think
29:32a lot of that has to do with how we started this show and how we talked about teams being willing to
29:39give you things underneath and then rally and tackle.
29:42Jags, 81% zone drops, just a 19% blitz rate in this game.
29:46They were going to rush with four, they were going to keep guys back in zone coverage, and when you threw it
29:52underneath, they were going to be ready to rally and tackle.
29:56A less than 10% missed tackle rate from Jacksonville in this game.
30:00To me, that is what their game plan was going into it, and they executed this beautifully.
30:05Everyone on the team was ready for a run fit whenever the Bengals were going to go to the run game, and
30:12they were ready to rally to the football any time that it was some sort of a short pass between zero and nine yards.
30:19And clearly, it frustrated Joe Burrow as well with a couple of throws that you go, man, Joe Burrow normally didn't make
30:26those kinds of throws, and I think it was just that mounting frustration of how Anthony Camp and I was calling this
30:33game as the defensive coordinator for the Jags, and I just thought it was an excellent job.
30:38Liam Cohen gets a lot of praise on this coaching staff for the offensive side of the ball, but I wanted to
30:45give the flowers to the defensive side of the ball as well.
30:48The Jags are a complete team, and I think through four weeks, they've shown that they can win on the offense and the defensive side of the ball.
30:57It's tough to win ugly games. I mean, it's tough to win any game in the NFL, but especially the ugly games.
31:04It's kind of the theme of today is teams winning ugly.
31:07There were 24 total penalties in this one. 13 were on Jacksonville.
31:1111 were on Cincy, so they didn't necessarily get the benefit of the refs in this one.
31:16There were 200 penalty yards between the two teams.
31:19It was terrible. It was not a good game to watch on TV, at least until the second half, because there was
31:2618 penalties in the first half alone out of 24.
31:29It was hard to get into a flow, and as a player, it's one thing to be a fan and not be
31:36able to get in the flow of the game.
31:39As a player, it's really hard to get into the flow of the game when it's just stopping every two minutes or
31:45even faster than that, just because of constant penalties on both teams.
31:49You don't know what down and distance you're in because it keeps changing every 30 seconds.
31:54It was tough, not to mention three touchdowns got nullified by penalty in this one, two of them for Jacksonville.
32:00Weirdly enough, first and 10 in the red zone on the Bengals' last drive, that's when they decided to not call penalties,
32:07and to me, there was a clear pass interference on that first and 10.
32:11DB got there early, no call on that one, and that's what frustrates me the most because if you're going to call
32:1824 penalties in a game, it better be consistent.
32:21If we're all going to be miserable, we should all be equally miserable here, but whatever.
32:26I'm not bitter at all, but it was a tough game to watch, and I think really the stabilizing forces here were
32:33the Jacksonville defense, to your point, and Trevor Lawrence.
32:35He took care of the ball. He didn't throw any back-breaking picks and make things harder on his team than they needed to be.
32:43He made good throws, he made good decisions, and they were just the more stable team through all that chaotic mess of a game that this was.
32:51B.M. Cohen had a good day. Yes and no.
32:54I take issue with the game management decisions they made at the end of this one that I think potentially gave Cincinnati
33:01a way to backdoor this one and come back.
33:04They were at midfield, it's fourth and three. If you get this first down, the game's over, essentially.
33:09NGS has, like, they track decisions that coaches make on fourth downs and they'll give you the expected win probability based on
33:16if you go for it, if you kick, if you punt, all that, everything.
33:20NGS had a strong go for it there at plus 4.7% win probability.
33:24I personally would have gone for it there knowing Joe Burrow's on the other side and he's in the middle of a
33:31heater throwing 10 straight completions even though Jamar's out of the game.
33:35He's still got Tee Higgins at that point. I don't trust it.
33:38I would rather put the ball in my quarterback.
33:41I wonder if that went into it for them.
33:44I wonder if Liam was a little bit like, they don't have Jamar.
33:48It's still Joe and Tee. No, I'm not saying that it's totally against it because I do understand what you're saying.
33:55I just wonder if that maybe went into him going like, hey, they don't have Jamar.
34:00It's possible, but the fact that they intentionally took the penalty and then punted and then since he drove right down the
34:06field anyway and got to the red zone where, in my opinion, the non-call or the missed call on PI that should have been called happened.
34:14Jacksonville held on fourth and ten, but even earlier in the game, there was a different fourth down opportunity from Cincinnati's 41-yard line that they also punted on.
34:23They were in Cam Little's range. Cam Little's range is like ten yards even more than that, and they punted.
34:29Cam Little's range is on the other side of the 50.
34:33Put him in the parking lot. I don't care.
34:35He's going to kick a field goal. Do you remember the early Madden games?
34:40I think it was Madden 04 where you could buy the trading cards and then activate them sometimes during the game, and
34:47one of them was unlimited kick power. If you played this trading card, you could kick it from your own one-yard line, and it would go the distance.
34:55You still had to aim it correctly, I think, but it would actually go 100 yards if you played this card.
35:02That feels like Cam Little a little bit right now.
35:05You're factoring in the Coriolis effect for a field goal.
35:08You do. You need to do it. I don't understand if you have that kind of weapon at kicker, why are you punting from the 41?
35:16Your opponent's 41-yard line. Liam, I think he got away with one little bit in this game, but a win's a win.
35:23We'll take it. Okay, those are our deep dives, but we've heard you guys in the comments that you want us to
35:29talk about more games, so we're going to try to do that here.
35:33We're going to go to a little whip around, go through a lot of the games that we didn't touch on for
35:40the deep dives, and just say something from our observations that we've seen in the data or what we watched today on film.
35:47First one is the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
35:51Begrudgingly, I am bringing this up, Brett, because we had to talk about the Texans and we had to do that, and
35:58unfortunately you had to slog through that, and so I will acknowledge the fact that the Tampa Buccaneers are also an 0-4
36:05football team and lost to the Green Bay Packers.
36:08Packers used 13 personnel on 16 plays in week 4, gained 128 yards, the team's most plays and yards in that heavy
36:14of a personnel and 13 personnel in a game in the next-gen stat era, which is since 2016, so heavy personnel packages,
36:21and I think, Brett, that's exactly how you're going to go after this Buccaneers team, the linebacker level, not great, and it's
36:28just, the defense is all over the place for the Buccaneers.
36:31Side note, can we talk about Lucas Van Ness?
36:34Where did this come from? I mean, what are you talking about?
36:38First round pick? First round pick? First round pick?
36:41I realize that, but he was left for dead this offseason.
36:44I know, I know, he's been a lot better this year, yes, you were right, you are right.
36:50He's been great, he's been great, so good for him.
36:53Jalen Daniels getting the start for the Buccaneers, I thought he looked fine for what would want these expectations to be, but
36:59it's a mess in Tampa in a lot of different ways.
37:03The Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens, the return of the King, King Henry, coming back in this game, Baltimore wins it
37:10pretty easily, I'm not going to lie. Tennessee is just not really competitive this season.
37:14Specifically, we get another big Zay Flowers game in this one, he was a major factor every single time that he is out there when he is healthy.
37:23His presence, I think, makes all the difference in the world.
37:26I think that the Tennessee Titans offense is still just so all over the place right now, and it's just, yeah, it's just, it's so inconsistent.
37:34You can have some big plays, but then you've just got some absolute stinkers and some stretches of the game where you're
37:41getting nothing from your offense, at least not what you need to.
37:45Cam Ward, now is the same amount of career losses as your Marcus Russell?
37:49You know, not great. I like Cam Ward. I think he's a hard worker.
37:54I think he is yet another quarterback that unfortunately needed a different situation than what, than the one that he got drafted into.
38:01It's, to me, it's no different than Sam Darnold Geno Smith, like, these quarterbacks that they have a ton of talent.
38:07They're good people. They're hard workers. They're just not ready yet, but when you get drafted that high, you have to play,
38:14and he wasn't ready to play, and I, ah, it's just, it's bad timing.
38:18Like, the timelines do not align, and that's why I'm so happy that Fernando Mendoza doesn't have to play in Vegas this
38:25year because I think it would have been maybe similar, even though the talent in Vegas this year is better than the talent in Tennessee.
38:33It's just some guys not even some, a lot of quarterbacks coming out of college are not ready to play.
38:39I think he was one of them, and it's just unfortunate.
38:42Especially in today's age where it feels like if you get picked in the first round, let alone be a number one overall pick, you start right away.
38:51No questions asked, and I just think that's a horrible rule to have for young quarterbacks, but that's a topic much deeper for another time.
38:59Denver and San Francisco. San Francisco ends up winning this game.
39:02Man, Bo Nix completed just one of nine passes down the field of 10 or more air yards for 30 yards.
39:09Did not attempt the deep pass of 20 or more air yards until under two minutes in the fourth quarter.
39:15You talked about this last week. It can't just be fourth quarter, and it just, it feels so conservative for them.
39:21It was over three on deep attempts. I mean, it was just far too conservative for the Broncos for whatever reason.
39:28It just, you've got to get more before we get to the fourth quarter in the two minute trail where you're just, you're letting it fly after that.
39:36It's too late. I still have to go back and look at the all 22 for every single play.
39:42I'm very curious if it's a, he didn't do it because nothing was open or he didn't do it because he didn't
39:49trust it, which to me are two very different things.
39:52But having, having an average air yards per attempt deep into the second half of under four yards, like you won't win that way.
40:00You won't win football games. Yes. You'll barely win football games doing that with like prime Derek Henry as you're running back.
40:06It's just like you, you have to be more of a threat to pass the charges and the Seahawks chargers did make
40:13it interesting there at the end, but it kind of just felt like this was always Seattle's game to win.
40:19And they do win this one. The chargers dropped to Oh and four on the season.
40:24To me, the Seattle Seahawks their defense won the day in this one, only seven and a half missed tackle rate for
40:31Seattle, 56.3% pressure rate on the day had a four to one turnover ratio in their favor.
40:36Justin Herbert continues to just look broken. Justin Herbert's two interceptions, but the first one was bad.
40:42Second one was worse. I just, there are times when I don't know what he's looking at.
40:47He's firing it right to defenders and it just going back to when we were worried about what we saw in week
40:54one, it just reeks of frustration already so early in the season and, and man, he has just been a shell of
41:01the potential that he has early on this season.
41:03Honestly, my main takeaway beyond Justin Herbert, not looking like Justin Herbert, we complained about the number of penalties in Jacksonville since
41:10he, this one had 30, there was 30 penalties in this game.
41:14Like we thought 24 was bad. That's crazy. Wasn't almost 300 yards of penalties between the two teams.
41:19I, I got to look what the, it was 280.
41:23It was 280. Like that's awful. Like this game also started with back to back interceptions on the first two plays of the game.
41:30This was gross. This was gross football. I don't think anybody enjoyed it on either side.
41:35Everybody's happy just to be done with this game.
41:38We're moving on to week five. It was bad.
41:40The refs almost out gained the Seahawks. The Seahawks had 286 total yards.
41:44Jets and the Bears. Man, I can keep this one pretty quick.
41:48Bears won this game. Bears had 34 first downs in this game.
41:52Jets had 32 total offensive plays. I mean, when you look at time of possession, when you look at first downs, I
41:59mean, it's just, it is the most lopsided, non-competitive matchup you can find in a long, long time here with this game.
42:06You had Bears defensive players after the game saying like they weren't even sore.
42:10It was the easiest game they'd ever played in their life.
42:13I saw Devin Bush say he was bored. He wasn't on the field.
42:17Like, they were barely out there. Like, I was messaging Connor after the game because I thought that stat was fake.
42:24I was like, there's no way that's real. And, you know, a gleefully masochistic Jets fan that Connor is immediately was like, yup, that's what happened.
42:32That's what I just had to watch today. Yeah.
42:35Yeah. Incredible. A little rapid fire here on the last three games that we have.
42:39The Colts and the Commanders, they played this game in London.
42:43The Colts take the victory. Look, the Commanders were already down to their second quarterback in Mariota.
42:48He goes out of the game. Ethan Kaliak-Manus came in and had some really nice throws once he kind of got warmed
42:55up, but it took him a little while to get warmed up.
42:58And it was just too much of Indianapolis. Indianapolis is one of those teams where they kind of play to the same baseline every single week.
43:06And some teams have a good chance of playing above that baseline.
43:10But if you don't at least hit that baseline, they're going to beat you.
43:14And that feels like the story of the Indianapolis Colts this season.
43:18Daniel Jones was bad in the first half. Can we just acknowledge that?
43:22I don't think the Colts were great at a lot today.
43:26They just happened to play undrafted free agent QB3.
43:28And that's how you get the victory today. 12 of 22.
43:32This is all in the first half, by the way.
43:3512 of 22, 86 yards, no touchdowns, an interception, a fumble lost, 44.9 passer rating, 3.9 yards per attempt.
43:41They just took the ball out of his hands in the second half.
43:45So Jonathan Taylor, you do your thing. They had more designed runs than passes in the second half, which because they had a lead, they could do that.
43:53Exactly. Right. Right. And you have Jonathan Taylor, but Daniel Jones was an anchor on this team.
43:59I and I don't know what happened to the version of Daniel Jones that was so good in the first half of last year before he got injured.
44:07It was really before the broken leg, not even before the Achilles, maybe like first eight weeks of the season.
44:13That's gone. Like it hasn't come back yet this year.
44:17I, and I don't know if we're going to see it again.
44:20The Giants get a win over the Arizona Cardinals.
44:23Brett, I'm going to be honest with you. I don't know how the Giants won this game.
44:28The Giants had 12% less overall success rate than the Arizona Cardinals did.
44:32They had a 28.6% design success rate. I mean, that's incredibly low.
44:36They had almost quadruple the percentage of a missed tackle rate compared to the Arizona Cardinals.
44:41There were so many stats that you look at in this game that you go, yeah, okay, I think the Cardinals won this game.
44:48And they didn't. They lost by 12. Obviously, the pick six to the end sort of is just, you know, an icing on the cake with this one.
44:57But this game was just hilarious to me that it was the Giants winning by more than 10 points.
45:03You look at so many of the statistics and you go, yeah, the Giants really struggled in this game.
45:09But a dub is a dub and they're sitting here at 3-1.
45:13The win probability chart's hilarious to look at because it starts out super heavy Cardinals, then super heavy Giants, and super heavy Cardinals, and super heavy Giants.
45:21And then it spikes at the end with the Marvin DPI, and then you get the pick six from Banks.
45:27Right. That's what's like, this game was just wacky.
45:30This was wacky football. It was fun. Last thing, Minnesota Vikings and the Miami Dolphins.
45:34Minnesota's offense is so ugly. 72 plays, scored 15 total points, 0-3 in the red zone.
45:39Didn't have a single deep passing attempt the entire game.
45:43I don't really know what to think of Minnesota at this point, but hey, they're 4-0.
45:47On the other side of things, Jacob Rodriguez, 18 tackles.
45:51So shout out to Rookie, doing great today. Yeah, that was like an average Texas Tech Saturday if anybody watched Jacob Rodriguez.
45:57That's very true. That's very true. He is a tackling machine.
46:01Yeah. And I think he's probably the early front runner for defensive rookie of the year.
46:06He could very easily lead the league in stops, tackles, like just everything.
46:10He's a unit. And a great guy, too, by the way.
46:13Talked to him with the combat. He's a bundle of joy and a very, very good linebacker.
46:18But on the Viking side of things, I can't believe they're 4-0.
46:22I cannot believe this particular brand of football is 4-0.
46:25I get we want to be like a hard-nosed defense running team, but you got to get something from the quarterback position.
46:32Right. Something. And they're not, and they're still 4-0.
46:35To me, Brian Flores should just wrap up assistant coach of the year already.
46:39They wouldn't be 4-0 without him. But I, how do Vikings fans do this every week?
46:44It's awful. It's miserable to watch. It's entertaining when the defense is on the field.
46:49They're 4-0, Brett. What do you mean? It's just like watching.
46:52Our teams are a combined 0-8. But at least they're entertaining.
46:55This is bad TV. I'll allow you to be a bad football team.
47:00You can't be bad TV. That's true. Pick a struggle.
47:03You'd much rather be entertaining. I learned from a very young age, you can be mean or you can be ugly.
47:09You can't be both. And that's the Minnesota Vikings this season.
47:13It's just awful. A beautiful way to wrap up the show.
47:16There we go, folks. Week 4 in the books.
47:19Ton to discuss. Ton to go over. And there's a lot of film, a lot of data for us to comb through
47:25over the next couple of days before the episode on Friday where we take all this information.
47:31Pack it up. Give you a little bit of review stuff, but really take that into what you are going to see in Week 5, of course.
47:39If you follow an NFL Pro, you know that's coming up on Friday.
47:43And we'll see you guys then. Thank you for listening to our Week 4 Reaction Podcast.
47:48Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
