Week 4 Lineup Advice (Fantasy Football Start Sit)

Projected as QB25 by the source and described as a sit in the matchup against New Orleans.

Outscoring Kyle Pitts by a significant amount despite Pitts being the second-highest paid tight end in the league. Ranked TE42 in projections, ahead of Pitts (TE33). The source suggests Hooper should be moved up further, implying he offers better value than Pitts as the competing tight end target in the Falcons offense. Backup quarterback situations often result in more targets to tight ends due to safer, shorter throws near the line of scrimmage.

Start recommendation averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game with Michael Penix starting at QB—production that would easily lead all running backs. The Saints are giving up the 6th most fantasy points per game to running backs and rank second-worst in success rate on the ground, creating a favorable matchup for Robinson's elevated role.

Bowers posted a career-high 39% target share and 95% route run percentage in his first game under Clint Kubiak; the Raiders deployed 12 personnel over 50% of the time, which ranks second-best in EPA per play league-wide, compared to their bottom-five 11 personnel efficiency. This scheme fit and elevated usage suggest sustained high-volume opportunity. Bowers is one of only two tight ends in FBS history to record multiple 800-yard receiving seasons in college (the other being Michael Mayer), establishing elite college production pedigree. The Raiders' offensive coordinator Ryan Pagnetti stated last year that the team's goal for the season was to get Bowers to break the NFL record for receptions by a tight end in a single season, signaling explicit organizational intent to maximize his target volume.

QB2 in fantasy points per game at 22.8 PPFG and QB3 over last 10 games; averaging 30 rushing yards per week, adding dual-threat value; playing with elite efficiency metrics (top EPA per drop back and adjusted net yards per attempt); Broncos defense not imposing; start recommendation over Bo Nix and Jaylen Hertz.

Ranked QB14 by the source but positioned as a firm QB1 for this week against Detroit's elite pass defense. The source emphasizes strong recent performance: three of his seven best games by passing yards have occurred in the past three weeks, with massive play volume and elevated pass rate over expectation. Detroit has given up over 100 more passing yards than any other defense and the most rushing fantasy points to opposing QBs, creating an ideal game script. The source states: "I don't know how you can tell our subscribers to sit Bryce Young against this Lion's defense in this potential game script." In head-to-head QB comparisons, Young is favored over Bo Knicks, CJ Stroud, and Brock Purdy (though Jaylen Hurts is preferred). The source concludes: "I think I'll take Bryce over all those guys not named Brock Purdy. He's firmly a QB1 for me."

Projected as WR6 by the source, a ranking the source views as appropriate for the Saints receiver in this matchup.

RB2 ranking with strong matchup setup; snap share jumped to 82% in San Francisco's first competitive game; Broncos give up second-most rushing yards per game and second-most receiving yards per game to running backs; McCaffrey's dual-threat ability (rushing and receiving) makes him ideal for exploiting Denver's weak run defense.

Projected as RB1 by the source despite acknowledged skepticism about the ranking against Detroit's elite run defense. The source states: "I don't I don't love that. Detroit's really good against the run." However, Hubbard's underlying metrics justify the projection: he has finished top 12 in fantasy points at the position every single week this season—the only other running back who could say that is Jalen Gibbs. He carries an 84% snap share and receives 82% of the backfield expected fantasy points (XFP), giving him an elevated role in Carolina's offense that can overcome the matchup challenge.

The source uses Mooney as a stylistic comparison for Trey Tucker in the Kirk Cousins offense. In 2024, Mooney averaged 2.03 yards per route run alongside Drake London (2.25 yards per route run). The source notes the gap 'should never have been that close' but frames it as a 'good stylistic fit,' suggesting Mooney's production was sustainable despite the efficiency gap.

Ranked tight end 14 as the source's floor projection. Just led his team in targets. Detroit has given up five tight end one performances in three games this season and is allowing 33.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends—60% worse than the next closest defense. The source prefers Waller over Tee McMillan in this matchup.

WR33 ranking viewed as slightly low on surface, but target share concerns are real. Had zero targets despite 80 receiving yards and a touchdown run last week (showing speed improvement); however, zero targets is concerning for consistency. After Mike Evans injury, George Kittle captured 46% target share, suggesting Brock Purdy is locking onto Kittle instead of distributing to Samuel; on the fringe of fantasy relevance. The source had heavy Deebo Samuel exposure in DFS last week and received zero targets.

Start recommendation this week. Averaging 121 yards per game and 24.8 fantasy points per game; has hit 100+ receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games. Healthy this week with Michael Penix starting at QB for the Falcons, which impacts target distribution. The source notes Drake London doesn't stay healthy very often, but is available for this matchup, positioning him as a strong play.

Top three tight end ranking with elevated target concentration. Captured 46% target share after Mike Evans injury, indicating he is the primary target for Brock Purdy despite all 49ers injuries. The source's confidence is increased by this target concentration and the matchup advantage against Denver.

Ranked RB32 with efficiency concerns despite high volume. Had 17 carries and 2 targets last week, but 'the efficiency hasn't been there' this year, breaking a career pattern of 5+ yards per carry. However, the source notes the 49ers are 'the league's biggest run funnel by pass rate over expectation,' which could create volume-based value if the Broncos lean on the ground game. The source suggests the team may be too high on Bo Nix and not high enough on Dobbins and R.J. Harvey given this defensive matchup.

Projected as WR23 by the source. Running hot with positive catchable target rate, making him a negative regression candidate despite current production. Contrasts with Tee McMillan, who has the worst catchable target rate in the league and is due for positive regression.

Ranked WR35 by the source (highest in the industry) with a bold prediction for a monster outing this week. The source cites schematic matchup excellence: Carolina lives in single-high coverage and cover three, which Williams has torched throughout his career. Both of Carolina's starting outside cornerbacks (JC Horn and Mike Jackson Jr.) went on IR this week, further weakening an already bad defense. The game projects as a pass-heavy shootout with potentially 150 total plays. The source explicitly states: "Jameson Williams is going off in this game, Scott. I'm telling you right now, this is my bold ass call of the week." Over the last 12 games with Sam Leaporta, Williams has been out-targeted 68 to 59, establishing Leaporta as the alpha target in the Lions passing game.

Historical context for Kirk Cousins' receiver preferences: Crowder was Cousins' favorite receiver during their time together in Washington. The source uses this to frame Cousins' target distribution patterns and receiver tendencies in evaluating current offensive fit.

Start recommendation with elite statistical profile. JSN averages 35 fantasy points per game, 10 points ahead of the next-closest WR at 25 PPG, and is described as the most matchup-proof and role-proof player in fantasy. He is averaging 4.22 yards per team pass attempt, the highest since the 1950s (Lance Alworth in 1965 is second, JSN 2025 is third). The source ranks him as an MVP candidate over Brock Purdy and notes his role is comparable to what DeVante Adams or Puka Nacua would produce if they had his role for an entire season. Since the start of last season, JSN's 0.8+ fantasy points per route run vastly exceeds all other WRs, with Amon-Ra St. Brown at 0.63 being the next closest.

Start recommendation against 49ers pass rush depleted by Nick Bosa and Muel Williams injuries. The source notes that Steve Spagnolo employed bracket-and-double coverage against Waddle in week one, establishing precedent for defensive strategy. However, the 49ers lack the personnel to commit to taking Waddle out of the game this week given the injuries to Bosa and Williams, creating a favorable matchup for Waddle.

Used as a film-evaluation comparison point for Puka Nakua's pre-draft profile; the source noted Nakua's college tape reminded Brett of Jefferson's caliber, supporting a round-two evaluation.

Projected as TE9 by the source. The source likes his recent production, noting he ranks top 3 among tight ends in fantasy points per game, making him a strong play this week.

Projected as tight end 33 by the source, who considers this a burial. Hasn't had a 10% target share in any game this year. Austin Hooper is outscoring him by a significant amount despite Pitts being the second-highest paid tight end in the league. The source characterizes Pitts as a fraud who gets drafted as tight end 7 every year but underperforms, getting outscored by Austin Hooper and Drake London. Despite having more receiving yards than any other tight end by their 26th birthday in NFL history, his current fantasy production does not match his draft capital. On pace for 113 receiving yards this season with only one 100-yard game over the last four years.

Ranked WR25 (high-end WR3/low-end WR2) despite injury concerns. McConkey posted an 84% route share last week but trailed both Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris in targets, suggesting potential role decline or health-related caution. The source compares his role to Zay Flowers' but in a weaker offense, and notes uncertainty about whether he'll return to full form due to possible contact avoidance while wearing a flak jacket.

Mahomes is a must-start in Week 4 against the Raiders; the source calls him an obvious start in a favorable matchup where Kansas City is favored by 4.5 points on the road with an over-under of 48, one of the highest numbers of the week. Explicitly stated: 'You're obviously starting Patrick Mahomes' as part of the tier of must-start Chiefs players.

Brett's film evaluation identified Nakua as a round-two caliber prospect pre-draft despite day-three ADP, comparing him to Justin Jefferson's college tape profile. The source credits this call as a crown jewel example of accurate film analysis, noting Nakua has since become a dominant dynasty asset: 'Puka Nakua is awesome... I just have him on all my dynasty teams and I'm just dominating everyone.'

Ranked WR15 but with significant target share volatility and recent role recovery; week one target share was 7.4%, week two 10.6%, and last week 37.5% with team-leading screen targets, indicating a return to his previous role. The source notes he's 'too high' at WR15 but acknowledges the immense recent target share justifies the ranking somewhat. Despite the favorable Chiefs-Raiders matchup calling for a start, the underlying volatility and inconsistent role warrant caution.

Ranked RB33 but may be underrated given the 49ers' run funnel tendency. The source states: 'could be a reason why we're too high on Bo Nix and actually not high enough on JK Dobbins and R.J. Harvey.' The 49ers allow offenses to run at a high rate relative to pass rate expectation, which could elevate Harvey's volume and fantasy value in this matchup.

Over the last 12 games with Jameson Williams, Leaporta has significantly out-targeted him 68 to 59, establishing Leaporta as the alpha target in the Lions passing game. This target-share disparity is cited as context for Williams' regression candidacy despite his WR35 ranking.

Kelce is ranked as tight end one and a must-start in Week 4 against the Raiders; the source calls him part of the obvious Chiefs starts in a favorable matchup where Kansas City is favored by 4.5 points on the road with an over-under of 48, one of the highest numbers of the week. Explicitly included in the tier of must-start Chiefs players alongside Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, and Rashee Rice.

Ranked WR49 with a sit recommendation. The source acknowledges Tucker is a good deep threat but characterizes deep-threat plays as low-percentage outcomes. Defensive strategy will focus on bracketing Brock Bowers, which could leave Tucker available for one-on-one man coverage—a winnable matchup stylistically. However, the source notes this is still a low-percentage play overall. From a DFS or parlay perspective, Tucker may be underrated if the Chiefs sell out to stop Bowers, comparing him favorably to Darnell Mooney's 2.03 yards per route run in Kirk Cousins' 2024 offense (vs. Drake London's 2.25), though this comparison is not particularly encouraging for standard formats.

Suffered an injury in the game where Rashee Rice saw a 37.5% target share, but Andy Reid indicated post-game that the injury is minor and Worthy only missed a few snaps, suggesting limited impact on his role going forward.