Top 5 Fantasy Football Offenses That Will SMASH ADP in 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
36 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 27, 2026
Published
Wed, May 27, 2026
49
Player insights
48
Players mentioned
Topics
Jordan AddisonAaron JonesAlec IngoldAntonio WilliamsAshton JeantyBijan RobinsonBrock BowersBryce YoungCarnell TateCharlie KolarChigoziem OkonkwoChris OlaveDarren WallerDavid Njoku
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeRole0:14
Jones is breaking down at the end of last year, contributing to the Vikings' likely higher pass rate this season.
Insight pageAlec Ingold
PositiveRole0:29
Alec Ingold is a fullback brought in by the Chargers who provides blocking that juices the efficiency of wide receivers and tight ends, with up to a 30% increase in yards per route run.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveRole0:08
Williams has a clear year one path in the Commanders offense, as discussed on Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
PositiveProjection0:17
Jeanty has a great chance of breaking through as a second-round value pick and was the best running back in yards after contact per attempt on plays where he had room to run.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveProjection0:09
Robinson, a top-two pick, could be a 25-point per game scorer with 20 being a reasonable bet, similar to Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of upside potential.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection0:16
Bowers costs a mid-first-round pick in FFPC but goes toward the end of the second round in PPR formats, with potential to be a huge league winner and could be in a Jaxon Smith-Njigba type role at tight end.
Insight pageBryce Young
PositiveRole0:26
Bryce Young brings a big-time size-speed combination and is expected to be on the field a lot for the Saints.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue0:27
Carnell Tate, a rookie wide receiver, is expected to see his ADP rise throughout the summer along with other rookie receivers.
Insight pageCharlie Kolar
PositiveRole0:32
Charlie Kolar is brought in by the Chargers to provide blocking in heavy personnel packages under Mike McDaniel.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveRole0:05
Okonkwo could see increased route share in negative game scripts where the Commanders are trailing, potentially reaching a career-high above 62%, and has outperformed Trey McBride through three years of playing together.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection0:23
Chris Olave ranked as a top 24 wide receiver by expected fantasy points per game under Kellen Moore's Saints offense, even with inefficiency from Spencer Rattler in the first half of last season.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveProjection0:30
Darren Waller is an example of a McDaniel flex-only tight end who had spike weeks despite running a 50-60% route share.
Insight pageDavid Njoku
PositiveRole0:29
David Njoku is expected to be blocking in line for the Chargers, potentially limiting his receiving opportunities.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveProjection0:33
Devon Achane has averaged 18 points per game for three straight years under Mike McDaniel, demonstrating the coach's ability to elevate running back production.
Insight pageDemond Claiborne
PositiveSleeper0:14
Claiborne could be a deep sleeper if the Vikings offense turns around, offering potential value in deeper leagues.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection0:10
London is going inside round two and could be targeted for top-five wide receiver upside in the Falcons' new Stefanski/Tommy Rees system.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
PositiveSleeper0:17
Nailor is a wide receiver option in the Raiders offense who could hit if the offense turns around, particularly in best ball formats.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection0:07
Daniels is capable of leading the Commanders to high-volume offense in negative game scripts, and in his first year as starter led a team to 28.8 points per game and sixth overall in scoring.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveProjection0:33
Jaylen Waddle is referenced as a low-end comparison for Ladd McConkey's potential in the Chargers offense.
Insight pageJonnu Smith
PositiveProjection0:30
Jonnu Smith is an example of a McDaniel flex-only tight end who had spike weeks despite running a 50-60% route share.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveSleeper0:14
Addison is sneaky and nobody's talking about him, but should benefit from the Vikings' expected bounce back with Kyler Murray and Kevin O'Connell.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:24
Jordan Addison is especially attractive at his current ADP cost in the Saints offense under Kellen Moore.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveRole0:14
Mason could end up being a top-24 scorer if the Vikings offense turns around, though the team doesn't seem overly thrilled with him.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveRole0:23
Jordan Tyson is a giant upgrade at wide receiver two for the Saints over Devon Valay, who was the second wide receiver running routes for much of last season.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection0:31
Justin Herbert should have the best season of his career under Mike McDaniel with the Chargers, and his ADP would be two rounds higher if not for his playoff performance reputation.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection0:13
Jefferson inside round two could become one of the biggest win-rate guys if he returns to his 2022-2024 form, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game with competent quarterbacks under Kevin O'Connell.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveProjection0:25
Juwan Johnson had a career season with the Saints and continues to provide fantasy utility in Kellen Moore's high-volume offense.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveRole0:31
Keaton Mitchell is the speed weapon in the Chargers backfield and is more of a best ball play, taking on design plays and gimmicky trick plays that McDaniel likes to mix in.
Insight pageKelvin Banks
PositiveRole0:26
Kelvin Banks, drafted in round one by the Saints, looks like an absolute stud long-time offensive lineman for them year in and year out.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveValue0:10
Pitts is somewhat affordable after career highs last year and should thrive in the Stefanski system where tight ends have historically performed well.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection0:13
Murray has never been lower than an 87.2 passer rating in his past five seasons and belongs in the top group of QBs under Kevin O'Connell, with potential to finish as a low-end QB1.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveProjection0:29
Ladd McConkey is especially loved in the Chargers offense, with potential to follow a Jaylen Waddle-type path on the low end or go way higher on the high end.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveRole0:19
Mayer could be the second-best pass catcher on the Raiders and potentially the wide receiver two in 12 personnel, with high-end tight end two to borderline tight end one production when running over two-thirds of routes.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveValue0:10
Penix is a free QB option in best ball formats who is stylistically fantasy-friendly and could serve as a panic option if Tua fails.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveProjection0:30
Omarion Hampton is a first-round running back entering an offense that has been literally the best for running backs over the past five seasons, with upside comparable to Ken Walker and Saquon Barkley.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveRole0:26
Oscar Delp is a tight end who brings exceptional speed and will feature in 12 personnel packages for the Saints.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue0:33
Quentin Johnston has a chance to hit in a major way at wide receiver 50 type ADP numbers in the Chargers offense.
Insight pageRaheem Mostert
PositiveProjection0:33
Raheem Mostert had an unbelievable season with 21 touchdowns in 2023 under Mike McDaniel, demonstrating McDaniel's ability as a running back whisperer.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
PositiveRole0:23
Rashid Shaheed was traded last year, ending his tenure with the Saints where he had ranked as a top 24 wide receiver by expected fantasy points per game.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection0:31
Saquon Barkley is referenced as a comparable player to Omarion Hampton in terms of upside and draft positioning.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveProjection0:05
McLaurin is positioned as a potential big winner in the Commanders' expected negative game script, having had one of the most efficient seasons of his career last year despite Marcus Mariota at QB.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveRole0:24
Travis Etienne brings explosiveness back to the Saints backfield and is expected to be a borderline RB1/RB2 with a volume archetype, even cheaper than Josh Jacobs or Kyren Williams.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveRole0:29
Trey Harris is expected to be on the field for the Chargers but may see competition from Rondale Gadsden and other receiving options in McDaniel's offense.
Insight pageTre Tucker
PositiveSleeper0:17
Tucker is a wide receiver option in the Raiders offense who could hit if the offense turns around, particularly in best ball formats.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection0:30
Trey McBride is referenced as a comparison point for McDaniel's flex-only tight ends who have spike weeks over their last 17 games.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
PositiveProjection0:10
Tagovailoa is the preferred bet for the Falcons QB position, getting drafted as a QB3 but expected to bring stability similar to Matt Ryan era, with good vibes around him.
Insight pageTyler Shough
PositiveProjection0:23
Tyler Shough is expected to provide efficiency improvement for the Saints offense in year two, with the team sounding incredibly excited about him going into the season.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
PositiveProjection0:28
Tyreek Hill completely broke fantasy football in 2023 under Mike McDaniel with the Dolphins, and McDaniel is capable of pulling off similar magic again.
Insight pageZachariah Branch
PositiveRole0:10
Branch is a third-round pick who stylistically fits well in the Falcons offense with parallels to year one Tank Dell.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Top five breakout offenses for fantasy football in 2026. [music] Theo Gremminger and Ryan Heath breaking it down right here on Fantasy Football
0:08Daily on Fantasy Points YouTube right after this.
0:12>> [music] >> That's him. That's Theo G.
0:22>> [music] >> All right. So, Ryan Heath and I are going to attempt to identify some of
0:33fantasy football and actually real life NFL football's breakout offenses. The NFL is a turnaround league. Last year we saw New England and Seattle battling it
0:43out in the Super Bowl. No one had that match up in the preseason. And in the NFL, things can change dramatically. And
0:51for fantasy football, that can result in big-time ADP wins that can help you in all walks of fantasy. Ryan, you know,
0:59when we look at it, I think we set the bar for this one. If you were a bottom half of the league scoring offense this
1:07year, we're specifically looking at those teams. So, we're not If you were like the 13th best offense last year, we're sort of pushing you to the side.
1:15We're specifically looking at offenses that maybe are overlooked or maybe the upside case is not quite as strong as Ryan and I see it. So, every offense we
1:24talk about last year was bottom half in scoring points per game. And Ryan and I think some of these offenses can finish
1:31as top five scoring offenses, and certainly a number of them can be top 10 scoring offenses. And just to add one
1:38more sort of historical note here, like we talked about the Super Bowl, but let's talk about just the point per game
1:44leaders last year. Last year we had Seattle that finished second in points per game. We had Jacksonville that finished sixth in points per game.
1:54Indianapolis finished seventh in points per game. New England finished eighth in points per game, and Chicago finished ninth in points per game. That's five
2:03offenses that all were bottom 10 in scoring points per game in 2024 that all became top 10 in 2025, including again
2:14the Seattle Seahawks that finished second in points per game. So, Ryan, like when you get these offenses that punch well above their weight class,
2:23it's almost easier for us to identify the offense than the specific players because if I can hit on an offense, there's a chance that major ADP wins
2:33collectively can come out of it.
2:36>> I agree 100%. I think this is the right kind of question to be asking this time of year. Basically, which are the rising
2:43tides that can kind of lift all of the boats just in terms of all the fantasy assets that are on these teams, and I
2:51think we have some pretty good candidates here. Excited to get into them with you, and we can start with either you or me or whatever you'd like
2:57to do here.
2:58>> Yeah, I mean, I think you're spot on, and I think another thing to like look at is if we look at sort of the overlap
3:03last year, when we look at Chicago and New New England, those teams both had quarterbacks entering into year two, so sort of upside quarterbacks. And with
3:14New England and Chicago, they both had new offensive play callers. Indianapolis had a new quarterback in Daniel Jones.
3:21Jacksonville had a new play caller in in Liam Cohen, and Seattle had the new play caller in Clint Kubiak and a
3:30new quarterback in Sam Darnold. So, there was some overlap. This year, we'll see if a couple of our teams share new
3:36play caller, new quarterback in that situation, or potentially an upside quarterback that's heading into it. So, Ryan, why don't you get us started?
3:43We're going to go 5-4-3-2-1, so make sure you stick for the end, and you're going to hear Ryan and I both
3:49reveal our number one breakout offense.
3:51Why don't you get us started with your fifth ranked offense here, Ryan?
3:56>> My number five is the Commanders. So, we do have a new play caller here in David Blough. You might remember him from
4:03getting destroyed on Thanksgiving when his teams are out of quarterbacks.
4:07That's how I always remember David Blough when he was playing in the league, but he comes in as a new play
4:14caller. We sort of have a new quarterback just in that Jayden Daniels missed so much of last season, of course massively affecting the Commanders
4:22offense. He's back this year, but the biggest thing that kind of attracts me to the Commanders for fantasy football is more about game script and just the
4:32type of team that I think they're going to have to end up being.
4:36Now, we know they want to be run heavy, but this was a bottom six defense in every category pretty much last year
4:44whether by points per game, EPA per play allowed, and they've turned over a huge amount of this defense. I think seven out of their
4:5311 projected starters are either free agents or drafted rookies. So, there's just a lot of moving parts here. The baseline was
5:01already pretty low. This could very easily turn into a team that is constantly chasing points on the scoreboard, and Jayden Daniels is
5:10absolutely capable of doing that. So, that's pretty exciting to me for Terry McLaurin, of course, had one of the most efficient seasons of
5:20his career last year, surprisingly even with so much of Marcus Mariota there.
5:26So, McLaurin is a potential big winner here, and the other kind of fantasy guy that I have my eye on in that sense is Chigoziem Okonkwo. What
5:37we've seen out of these kind of move tight ends, these flex only guys, is that very often the ones who pop in
5:44fantasy are on these teams that get into these negative game scripts that are trailing for a significant portion of their snaps and it just lets them get
5:54onto the field over whoever would normally be the inline blocker because there is no run game threat that they need to protect, right? You can just
6:03throw the Harold fan in or the Evan Engram onto the field inline when you're in these obvious dropback situations.
6:09So, that lines up really well for Okonkwo.
6:13Uh even with the Commanders having a seven and a half implied win total over in the betting markets this year, I I
6:21really think that a lot of that is just going to have to come from them chasing points, obvious dropback situations. We
6:28have seen Okonkwo outperform Trey McBride, the presumptive wide receiver two, through three years of them playing together. So, we can get Okonkwo's route
6:37share up there to a career high. He's never been above 62%. That's a pretty fun one to me, kind of a later guy you
6:44can take and then of course, as I said, Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels really solid. And you can make a similar kind
6:50of PPR scam argument for a Rashad White who is clearly the best pass catcher in that backfield and the really the only
6:58guy in that backfield with any history of carrying a full workload. So, all those names I just mentioned are just guys that even if the Commanders aren't
7:08the best real life NFL team, I think the offense could be high volume. I think it could really support a turnaround for
7:14especially some of these lower ADP pieces.
7:17>> Yeah, I think you said it very well.
7:19Terry McLaurin, even though he's like the most expensive skill position player, it's so clear that he's the offensive focal point and we're getting
7:25the positive coach speak from David Blough. And we saw him cook in a major way in 2024.
7:31I love the Rashad White call. I think there's some parallels between 2026 Rashad White and 2025 Kenneth Gainwell last year in Pittsburgh. Even down to
7:41like the the ambiguous backfield nature of Washington. Chig Okonkwo could simply be the 2024 the 2026 version of 2024 Zach Ertz. And let's not forget that Jayden
7:53Daniels in his first year as starter, the team averaged 28.8 points per game and were sixth overall in scoring. So, we've already seen Daniels lead a team
8:02to pretty high level. Washington was like 21st in scoring last year. You could easily see them get in the top 10.
8:07Oh, and we'll also shout out Antonio Williams, who I know Ryan and I both talked about over on Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube, which you should be
8:15subscribing to as well, about sort of the Antonio Williams having a clear year one path. So, Washington I could have talked about, but I'm actually going to
8:23go with a team that nobody's talking about right now, and that's the Atlanta Falcons. I think Atlanta is interesting.
8:29They're certainly a difficult situation where I'm going to find a million ADP wins, but could the upside cases be a
8:38little bit under under pronounced for guys like especially Drake London and Kyle Pitts. You have this situation where Kevin Stefanski's hired as the new
8:49head coach in Atlanta. So, we get Stefanski, who certainly had some success in Cleveland.
8:55And what he does is instead of going outside of his coaching staff, he brings the whole gang over from Cleveland, including offensive coordinator Tommy
9:04Rees. So, for me, this is Stefanski saying what happened in Cleveland is not my staff's fault, and in fact, these are
9:12the guys that I'm riding out with in with my new opportunity in Atlanta.
9:16You've also got the parallels of the teams we talked about last year, and much like David Blough, we're going to have a new system where it's Stefanski
9:25and Tommy Rees, who at one point, if you're a college football fan, Tommy Rees was like that guy. There was a lot
9:31of steam for Tommy Rees at Notre Dame, at Alabama, sort of a smartest man in the room type vibes. Little Joe
9:37Brady-esque if we want to go last year to Buffalo. Tommy Reese could end up sort of having a a secondary career arc
9:44if he's able to turn this offense in a major way. Uh and when we look at it, Bijan Robinson, a top-two pick, but
9:51Bijan potentially could be a 25-point per game scorer. I think 20 is like a reasonable bet, 25 if it all goes well.
9:59So, even though Bijan you're taking at the very top or the second overall pick, it's still like very much like Jahmyr
10:04Gibbs. One of these two guys going to end up just crushing it. Drake London is going inside of round two. Ryan, I'm
10:11sure we're going to be pounding the table on him all summer long as a guy you can target there and get top-five
10:15wide receiver upside. Kyle Pitts is somewhat affordable right now after having career highs last year, and we've seen tight ends thrive in this system.
10:24Harold Varner Jr. last year, David Njoku for multiple years in Cleveland. So, all three of those guys are set up, and I
10:31love Zachariah Branch stylistically. I think he's going to fit in very well in this offense and what he brings to the
10:37table. Uh third-round pick, little parallels to year one Tank Dell, if you know, you know. Uh and then you've got the quarterback, where both of these
10:45guys are free. So, if you make a bet on Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix, especially in Best Ball, you're going to
10:53get a chance to hit in a major way because again, these guys are getting drafted as QB3s. My bet is on Tua
10:59Tagovailoa. We know Trey Chamberlin, who's a big Atlanta Falcons fan, uh believes in Tua, thinks he's going to bring stability that they haven't seen
11:07since Matt Ryan. And the vibes are pretty good on Tua Tagovailoa right now.
11:11So, Ryan, I think Atlanta could end up turning things around in a major way.
11:16Your quick thoughts before you reveal your number four team.
11:19>> Yeah, just to add a little, I think the best part of this bet is actually the two quarterbacks that are there. Uh
11:26whether it is Tua or Penix that is starting more games, both of these guys, stylistically, are very fantasy-friendly quarterbacks for their weapons, right?
11:36Both of them are totally capable of maintaining PPR scam for Bijan Robinson, for example. They are not really guys that are going to scramble around and
11:46pull pass attempts out of the offense.
11:48And if Tua fails and flops, then they kind of can break the glass in case of emergency and go to a panic later in the
11:56year. It kind of gives them two chances to find something that works. So, yeah, I like this call quite a bit from you.
12:03>> Uh number 14, Ryan, who are you on here?
12:06>> At number four, I'm going to go with the Vikings. And this one is really just faith in Kevin O'Connell. Looking at him
12:15historically, uh since he became the head coach in 2021, just what he's done with different quarterbacks, I'm left believing that with Kyler Murray, this
12:26is going to again be a serious offense and again be an offense that's going to be near the top of the NFL just in terms
12:34of total pass attempts.
12:36Uh we have seen O'Connell be top five in red zone pass attempts or red zone pass rate for basically every year of his
12:44tenure. And just comparing some of the performances of these guys, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, even Carson Wentz, all of these guys have totally
12:54passable passer ratings uh when they've been under O'Connell. It really is only J.J. McCarthy and Max Rosemyr, like the clown show that we had at quarterback
13:05for the Vikings last year, and Josh Dobbs when he was playing without knowing the playbook at all in terms of quarterbacks that didn't perform that
13:12well. Uh and yeah, it's up on the screen even if uh Trey wants to scroll down a little more, but Kyler Murray, compared
13:19to some of these numbers, he's never been lower than an 87.2 passer rating in any of his past five seasons. He clearly
13:26belongs more in that top group. Uh I think he's certainly better than Carson Wentz or a Nick Mullens. Uh and if you
13:35just take that first group of guys, so not McCarthy, not Dobbs, not Brissett, uh Justin Jefferson averages 19.9 fantasy points per game with any of these like
13:46real quarterbacks. So, I I don't think Kyler even has to be that amazing. I think he just has to be remotely
13:52competent, and that has pretty much always been enough for O'Connell to give us a high-end offense. Also, they don't make any big moves in their backfield.
14:02Uh Aaron Jones really just kind of breaking down at the end of last year.
14:06Jordan Mason, they don't seem overly thrilled with, but no big additions.
14:09That also kind of leans me into thinking that they're going to go with a higher pass rate if they're able to. So, I'm
14:16pretty into just the bounce back for the Vikings. Jordan Addison is someone nobody's talking about, but I think he's kind of sneaky just for this reason. So,
14:25yeah, I am all over the Vikings, uh and they seem like one of the safer bounce back bets to me.
14:31>> Yeah, I mean, the and the the Josh Dobbs one, like the efficiency wasn't there, but the fantasy production certainly was
14:36for multiple weeks. Uh you go with what Kirk Cousins was able to accomplish.
14:40Like I'm I'm completely with you.
14:42Minnesota can turn things around in a major way. It's a fantastic opportunity for Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray finishing as a low-end QB1 would certainly not be
14:51shocking, but I think you're absolutely right to point out like the tertiary weapons, the Jordan Addisons, certainly the running back room. Could a guy like
14:59Jordan Mason end up being a top 24 score? Even down to like the Demond Claibornes, if you want to go super deep
15:05in the weeds. If this off offense turns around, Minnesota will turn around in a major way fantasy-wise, and the number one guy, Justin Jefferson. Justin
15:13Jefferson inside of round two, if he can get back to it being Justin Jefferson that we saw in 2023, 2024, 2022, then he
15:21becomes like one of the biggest win rate guys inside a round two. So, I'm completely with you on Minnesota. Uh and
15:29I actually have Minnesota as my number three breakout offense. So, you can go ahead and put Minnesota up at number three for me. Um and I will reveal my
15:39number four. And my [snorts] number four, I know you've actually got them higher, Ryan. And the bar is so, so low.
15:46We talked about Seattle being the number two overall scoring offense last year with Clint Kubiak as the play caller and a new quarterback in Sam Darnold. This
15:56year, the Las Vegas Raiders, uh who were dead last in points per game last year, an abysmal like 14 points per game if I
16:06believe. So, I'll I'll double-check that while you're talking about them. But, you have a new quarterback in Fernando Mendoza and a new quarterback in Kirk
16:14Cousins. If Kirk Cousins starts out the year as a bridge quarterback, I don't think that grosses us out to the point
16:20that we are fading the unbelievable weapon that's Brock Bowers. And if you're an FFPC drafter, Bowers costs you a mid-first-round pick. But, if you
16:29draft in NFFC or you draft on Underdog uh or other best-ball formats that are PPR, Brock Bowers goes towards the end
16:37of the second round. He could end up being a huge league winner at that price tag. And even for FFPC tight end
16:44premium, you get like eighth, ninth overall pick worth of Brock Bowers.
16:48Bowers could very much be in the Jaxon Smith-Njigba type role, but at the tight end position. If he's 85% of what JSN
16:56was last year as a tight end, he could break fantasy from that position. Then, you look at Ashton Jeanty, who has a
17:03great chance of breaking through this year as a second-round value pick. And then, the wide receiver room after that is completely free. If you take a shot
17:13on a Jaylen Nailor, a Trey Tucker, some people are on Jack Bash, but I'll take a shot probably on Nailor or Tucker,
17:20certainly in best ball. You can double tap those two on Underdog. If this offense hits in a major way, one of the
17:26wide receivers will hit as well. So, for me, this is such a simple formula. Clint Kubiak is a real one. He's incredibly
17:32sharp. We saw this two years ago, Ryan, the beginning of the 2024 season, where New Orleans looked like the breakout offense before everybody got hurt. So,
17:41we've seen it in multiple stops for Kubiak. Also, Kubiak is an offensive line whisperer, where Kubiak last year turned around the Seattle offensive
17:50line. We've seen Las Vegas make some really, really positive additions on the offensive line. I think we're going to see this offense turn around in a major
17:59way, and there's a chance it could be way more dramatic than like the 20th best offense. They could hit really quickly with Clint Kubiak as the play
18:07caller.
18:09>> The offensive line is exactly where I want to start. And this is really the biggest reason why I have the Raiders
18:15all the way up at number two in my breakout offense rankings is I just think we're going to see a massive
18:21difference from last year. It was so beyond bad last year. Like, bad doesn't even begin to describe it. And yeah, as
18:30you said, we saw Kubiak successfully kind of coach around the offensive line personnel issues in Seattle, but we're getting an upgrade here with the Raiders
18:39this year with Kolton Miller coming back. Just over the past three seasons, the splits with him on or off the field
18:47in terms of the Raiders offensive success are pretty notable. They're basically just below neutral in EPA per play with him on the field. They're all
18:57the way at minus point 11 EPA per play with him off the field. That's easily one of the worst marks in the NFL. They
19:05were bottom five last year in time to pressure in pretty much every just offensive line related stat. If they're just anywhere away from like the total
19:16bottom of the league, like far beyond everybody else, we can see a big improvement here, uh especially for Ashton Jeanty. Uh just on the plays
19:24where he wasn't hit behind the line of scrimmage, which happened to him the most of any running back in the league,
19:29he was the best of any running back in yards after contact per attempt just on those plays where he had room to run.
19:37So, I am all over Ashton Jeanty. Uh certainly at the 1 2 turn. And yeah, all over Bowers in round two. I think he's
19:45one of the best round two picks that you can make right now uh outside of the tight end premium scoring where yeah, of
19:51course, he's going earlier. But yeah, and and as you mentioned, even the rest of this offense is really interesting for best ball. Uh I like the wide
19:58receivers, sure, but even Michael Mayer is someone I don't want to forget about.
20:03We saw Clint Kubiak play 12 personnel at a top six rate last year. Uh Mayer has been a high-end tight end two to
20:12borderline tight end one just in all his games where he's run over two-thirds of the routes. I I think it's very possible
20:18that Michael Mayer is the second best pass catcher on this team right now. Why not just completely live in 12 personnel
20:25and have him actually be secretly like the wide receiver two on this team?
20:31Maybe it only matters for best ball, but he is free in the final round. I've been clicking him a ton in round 18 of these
20:38Underdog drafts to complete a tight end run because he also has the contingent value, of course, if Brock Bowers were to get injured. So, yeah, I'm just kind
20:46of all over this offense. I think all of the bets on them up and down the board make a ton of sense. And yeah, I'm
20:53always a big Clint Kubiak guy.
20:56>> Yeah, Kubiak's an easy one to bet on.
20:57And if you want more of Ryan Heese's uh best ball content as well as DFS, make sure you check out Fantasy Points DFS
21:05YouTube. We're going to be doing a ton of Best Ball content with Ryan Heath, Jacob Sanderson, and some very cool guests. I might even get on there, mess
21:14around, and draft some Best Balls with Ryan Heath on that channel this summer.
21:17So, make sure you should check it out that new channel. Probably uh check it out a lot of a lot of
21:22content ramping up there in the month of June. Make sure you check that out. If you're subscribed to our Dynasty channel, you're subscribed to Fantasy
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21:31Just go to the homepage and click right on uh Fantasy Points DFS YouTube. And make sure you check out fantasypoints.com for all of Ryan
21:39Heath's content, as well as my content.
21:42You're going to get access to Ryan's Dynasty rankings, my Dynasty rankings, all of the wonderful articles Ryan has written recently, as well as I'm going
21:49to drop my top 50 PPR rankings that are going to jump to a top 100 rankings shortly. That'll be up on the site soon
21:56enough. And check out the Brain Trust articles. Those are free. You're going to get opinions from Ryan Heath, myself, Joe Dolan, Graham Barfield, Scott
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22:12Fantasy Points is all about, make sure you check out the Brain Trust articles at fantasypoints.com. Let's keep this going. We talked about breakout
22:20offenses. I had the Raiders at four. I had Minnesota at three. So, I guess this is And Ryan had Vegas at two. We'll
22:26we'll run it down and and re-break down the top five at the end of the show. If you're not watching on YouTube and
22:31you're listening to the podcast, we will uh we will uh repeat ourselves on our each of our top fives when we get to the
22:37end. Ryan, let everybody know who your number three uh breakout offense is.
22:43>> It's the Saints for me.
22:45Uh I'm a big Kellen Moore fan. The biggest thing here is that he has always been extremely high just in terms of
22:53pace.
22:54Uh whether you measure that by seconds per play, plays per game.
22:58Uh just looking at the top play callers in terms of the most plays per game since 2021. Kellen Moore is sixth on
23:06that list. He's fourth among active play callers behind only Ben Johnson, Mike McCarthy, and Brian Schottenheimer. So, he's always ratcheting up the pace.
23:15We're going to get a ton of dropback volume from him. And we have seen this translate to at least fantasy relevant
23:23volume for multiple pass catchers in his offenses. Uh until Rashid Shaheed was traded last year, both Shaheed and Chris Olave ranked as top 24 wide receivers by
23:34expected fantasy points per game. That was with a ton of inefficiency with Spencer Rattler largely in the first half of the season. Now, they found
23:42Tyler Shough. They sound incredibly excited about him going into year two.
23:47So, we can look for an efficiency improvement there. And of course, they've made me meaningful upgrades at the skill positions. They draft Jordan
23:56Tyson, uh who is a giant upgrade at wide receiver two over Devon Valay, who was the second wide receiver running the
24:03routes for them for a lot of last season. And you've got Travis Etienne in the backfield now bringing some explosiveness back. So, yeah, it's
24:11really just as simple as Kellen Moore has his pieces now and he's going to get to go out there and run a ton of plays
24:20and the fantasy results are probably going to be really good. So, I'm especially at cost, I'm probably the most into Jordan Addison. Uh Tyler
24:30Shough also pretty nice here. Uh he showed a little bit of the rushing threat uh especially around the goal line last year. So, we could see that
24:39come back into play potentially as well.
24:41I I'm just into the Saints, big Kellen Moore fan. Uh Travis Etienne probably going a little bit higher than I would
24:48like in some of these underdog drafts especially, but I I think he is going to be kind of your Josh Jacobs-esque
24:56uh borderline RB1 RB2. If you're into that kind of volume archetype, I think he makes a lot of sense, uh and he's
25:04even a bit cheaper than a Josh Jacobs, a Kyren Williams, these types of plays.
25:09>> I love it, and I had New Orleans even higher than you did. Uh New Orleans, I I wanted to push up to number one. They're
25:17number two for me. I think you said it very, very well. Gram Barfield and I would kind of talk on a weekly basis,
25:24even when New Orleans was like struggling towards the beginning of the year, we were still finding fantasy utility from Chris Olave and Juwan
25:32Johnson, and it's really sort of the nature of the beast when you have a Kellen Moore offense, that like you said, it's plays per game, and it's pace
25:40of play. It's very, very simple. Then you factor in sort of the ADP price tag.
25:45When I look at Tyler Shuck, like I think a lot of people are in on Tyler Shuck right now as a guy who could beat his
25:52ADP expectation, but Ryan, all he's got to do is continue what he did at the end of the year, and he's going to put up
25:59borderline QB1 numbers. If we look at when he sort of started off from week 13 on, he finished as the QB12, the QB6,
26:10the QB16, the QB16, then the QB9, then the QB4, and then you look at what New Orleans was able to do for him, not only
26:19last year, where was Kelvin Banks in round one, who looks like an absolute stud, long-time stud offensive lineman for them uh for year in year out. Last
26:29year was actually the second year in a row that they went offensive tackle at the very, very top of the draft, but
26:34they draft Tyler Shuck, they hit on him, and Chris Olave has a career season, Juwan Johnson has a career season, but
26:41they don't sit back. They draft Jordan Tyson at eight overall. They also draft Oscar Delp and Bryce Lance, who bring exceptional speed. Delp is sort of a
26:52tight end a lot of 12 packages will feature him, and then you get Bryce Young who is going to be on the field a lot, and I
27:00think brings big-time size speed combination. So, really fun picks that they made. I agree with you completely.
27:07Travis Etienne maybe lacks that upside case to be a top five scorer at the running back position, but he does bring
27:13a considerable amount of volume, and he should thrive sort of in this role as a high-touch guy who also will catch some
27:20passes. Olave I think is fine. His ADP steamed up, but completely agree with you. Jordan Tyson, sixth-round pick right now in redraft. I think that
27:30number along with Carnell Tate, I think the two rookie wide receivers will have steam and rise up throughout the summer.
27:36So, I think New Orleans can end up being a big-time source of ADP wins, and an offense that could hit in a major way.
27:43And Ryan, it's a little funny. It's like the year two play-caller gets a little less attention than a lot of these year
27:50one guys, but we expect Kellen Moore with better offensive personnel to have even better results. He's proven it in multiple stops in his NFL career. Who is
28:00your num- Well, we're both in the same same same offense for breakout number one. Why don't you break it down? Tell
28:07us who your number one breakout offense is.
28:10>> Yeah, the moment you suggested this show to me, I knew exactly who my number one was going to be. It's of course the
28:15Chargers. I You've got Mike McDaniel coming over. The Mike McDaniel plus Justin Herbert combination is just so exciting to me. For those who don't
28:26remember, McDaniel had the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa averaging 6.4 yards per play back in 2023. The essentially the
28:35last time he had a legitimately functional offensive line, right?
28:41That was the third most efficient offense of the past five years in the NFL. So, McDaniel is capable of these insane heights. Tyreek Hill completely
28:51broke fantasy football that year.
28:54I think he can just do it again. He can pull the magic trick again.
28:58I just looking at their off-season moves, the biggest thing that jumps out to me is that I think McDaniel has long
29:04been ahead of the curve when it comes to the heavy personnel revolution that's going on in the NFL right now. Uh much
29:12like Kyle Shanahan, he has always used a fullback. He's always been near the top of the league in fullback usage. Uh and
29:20what that does for the wide receivers, for the tight ends that are still on the field, is it just juices their
29:25efficiency. I wrote a ton about this in my most recent article, but you see up to like a 30% increase in yards per
29:32route run for these pass catchers just by putting that blocking fullback, Alec Ingold, onto the field. So, that's amazing for all of the Chargers pieces.
29:42I especially love Lad McConkey. I think you can make a good case even for a Rondale Gadsden now just as someone that
29:50could come in and play as a pseudo wide receiver over a guy like a Trey Harris or a guy like a Quentin Johnston. Even
29:58if they've got David Njoku, Charlie Kolar blocking in line, why not Gadsden as just this receiving weapon?
30:06Uh we have seen McDaniel kind of succeed with that archetype of tight end before.
30:12Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith.
30:14Uh these guys are up up in like the Trey McBride range of just like spike weeks over their last 17 games. It's just
30:22these McDaniel flex only tight ends, even if they are running a 50-60% route share. So, yeah, just when you combine the kind of the rising tides of this
30:32offense um with just the explosiveness of a McConkey, of a Rondale Gadsden even downfield, I get really, really excited.
30:40And that's even before getting into the running game, which is of course the calling card of McDaniel, of this whole Shanahan tree.
30:49Uh O'Marien Hampton, while I do think you're paying the premium sort of for Well, this is a first-round running back uh
30:57entering the offense that has been literally the best for running backs of the past five seasons. You Like that doesn't mean the upside isn't still
31:06amazing, right? He is a one-two turn pick early round two. I I I He has just as much juice to me there as anybody
31:14that's in the area like a Ken Walker or Saquon Barkley. I think he totally belongs in that group of guys. So,
31:20Hampton's exciting. Some people are into Keaton Mitchell as the speed weapon, kind of the lightning in this backfield.
31:28I can see it. I think it's probably more of a best ball play, uh but there it makes a ton of sense to me as well. He
31:34can take on uh a lot of the design stuff, a lot of the uh just kind of gimmicky trick play stuff that McDaniel likes to mix in as
31:42well. So, yeah, just overall, I'm super into this offense. Uh Justin Herbert should should just have the best season of his career at this point.
31:51I I I get that he I literally think his ADP would be two rounds higher if not for the if man memes. Like if he didn't
31:58have this reputation uh in terms of playoff performances, I think Herbert would be going multiple rounds higher in fantasy football right now. But we don't
32:06care about that for fantasy football.
32:07It's the regular season, baby. So, I'm super into the Chargers. I'm so excited.
32:12Is it Is there anything you can even say to talk me out of this, Theo? Or are you just going to go and tell me I'm wrong
32:16again?
32:17>> They're my number one my number one breakout offense as well. And I think if we had Scott Barrett on here, they'd be
32:22his number one breakout offense as well.
32:24We have an elite play caller with an elite quarterback. Um we've also seen Harbaugh take this leap of faith where back-to-back playoff losses, and And to
32:35change things up dramatically going from sort of a Greg Roman type offense to now the Mike McDaniel system. And I look at
32:44what McDaniel did where stylistically he brings in these guys like Alec Ingold, like Charlie Kolar, like Keaton Mitchell, and then drafts Brevyn Spann
32:55Thompson another sort of speed demon on on day three.
32:58There is a lot there. Then you factor in I think Trey Harris and Quentin Johnston I'm on Quentin Johnston at ADP. I think
33:06there's a chance that he hits in a major way and I'm getting him at like wide receiver 50 type numbers. Trey Harris
33:12even cheaper if you're QJ fader. Ryan brings up the bull case for for Gadsden.
33:18Omarion Hampton we've seen Mike McDaniel be a running back whisperer where you've had guys like Raheem Mostert who had this unbelievable season where he had a
33:2821 touchdown season in 2023. So a lot of people think of Devon Achane as they should as the sort of back that thrives
33:36under Mike McDaniel. Achane three straight years of like 18 points per game under McDaniel. Then you factor in the Raheem Mostert having this out of
33:44nowhere leads the NFL in in touchdown scoring. I think Omarion Hampton has multiple pathways to hit in a major way.
33:52You've brought up Ladd McConkey. Ladd McConkey sort of on a low end is on the Jaylen Waddle type path in LA. High end
33:59could be way way higher.
34:01And the the use of the fullback the use of multiple tight end heavy packages with McDaniel. You're going to see multiple wide receivers hit. But at the
34:08end of the day for me I keep gravitating back towards Justin Herbert Justin Herbert Justin Herbert. This is an offense that can hit in a major way.
34:15Ryan you nailed it.
34:17We're going to continue dropping videos like this. Ryan Heath in the mix here every single Monday with me. Get that Chargers up get two Chargers up there.
34:24Get three Chargers up there at number one before we close out this board.
34:28Let's let's back up and we'll just reveal once again. Ryan go five through one on your top five breakout offenses, and I'll do the same.
34:37>> Yeah, number five for me was the Commanders, number four was the Vikings, number three was the Saints, number two was the Raiders, and number one, of
34:45course, was the Chargers for me.
34:48>> Yeah, and make sure you bookmark this podcast, come back to it end of the year, cuz we're revealing offenses that
34:52are going to score top 10 numbers, if not top five. For me, it goes Atlanta Falcons at five, Las Vegas Raiders at
34:59four, Minnesota at three, New Orleans at two, and the LA Chargers at one. We're going live here on Fantasy Points YouTube. Make sure you're sticking with
35:08us every single day. I'm going live at 9:30 in the morning. Ryan Heath is going to be joining me once a week throughout
35:13the season and throughout the off-season in June. Uh stick with us here at Fantasy Points. We're dropping content like this that's going to help you crush
35:21your leagues this season. If you're not already subscribed, hit that subscribe button, hit that like button. Doesn't cost you anything, helps us out a lot,
35:29and we'll see you soon.
35:35>> [music]
