0:00Are we drafting running backs wrong? And how can we find early round running back smashes in 2026? Ryan Heath joining Theo
0:10Griminger right here on Fantasy Football Daily.
0:20That's him. That's the OG. [music] Ryan, you are back from a trip. How was
0:31Puerto Rico?
0:33>> It was awesome. Yeah, I I I don't know.
0:35The the viewers can comment if I got a tan or not. I don't think I really did, but I It's not for lack of trying, but
0:41yeah, awesome trip, but excited to be back. Excited to talk some running backs here today.
0:45>> Yeah. And look for Ryan here with me on this channel every single week. And then make sure you're also checking out Ryan
0:53Heath and Jacob Sanderson breaking down best baseball. Uh Ryan, why don't you let everybody know what you're doing on the baseball side with Jacob?
1:02>> Yeah, over on the Fantasy Points best baseball channel that you can go subscribe to right now on YouTube. Uh each week Jacob Sanderson and I are
1:09basically taking a different best baseball strategy uh kind of debating the merits of it uh within like this year of drafts and then just putting a
1:18draft together and putting kind of the plan into action. Uh we've done zero RB.
1:22We'll have a robust RV episode out soon or probably by the time you listen to this. We'll be doing that every week all
1:29summer. So had some really good feedback. So yeah, make sure you check that out if you guys are doing best drafts this summer. Yeah, make sure you
1:35check out uh that channel and also check out Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube where you can find all of my Dynasty content
1:41and all of Ryan's Dynasty content as well. But Ryan, let's dive into it.
1:46Running back has been a position that we've really needed to nail the last two years. Running back scoring was way, way
1:52up last year, way up in 2024, and we're going to attempt to find those running backs once again. But I think one of the
1:59first things we should talk about is fantasy football's obsession with passcatching running backs causing drafters to maybe undervalue eight rushing specialists.
2:11>> I think it is in some ways. So I I'll say off the top, yes, pass catching is very important in PPR leagues. Uh
2:18targets are worth like over two and a half times a carry uh in terms of just fantasy points that it leads to in PPR
2:25for running backs. So, I my opinion there hasn't changed, but what I would say and what I have kind of been
2:31reflecting on is after we've gotten these smash seasons out of players like Jonathan Taylor last year, like Derk Henry in 2024, uh James Cook, some of
2:42these guys that just completely smash as these like really efficient, really elite two down rushing specialists. I wanted to kind of reexamine the last 5
2:53years of ADP data and just see what archetypes of running backs actually have been smashing their ADP of late. Uh so yeah, I've always advocated for I
3:04want the pass catchers in the early rounds, but you've yeah, we've got it up on screen here. What you're looking at
3:10is just the percentage of the time that each of these running back archetypes exceeded their ADP expectation by five or more points. So, I would call that a
3:20league winning pick, a smash pick, whatever you want to say there, right?
3:24Uh, this is just my expected uh fantasy points per game based on ADP model that this is going against. So, our
3:31archetypes here on the screen are non-pass catchers, which get under 30% of their XFP from receiving. Uh, we have our average guys kind of in the middle.
3:42These are between 30 to 40% of their XFP from receiving. And then we have the elite pass catchers, the 40% or more of
3:51their XFP from receiving. Those guys are like Christian McAffrey, Jamir Gibbs, Devon Achan, those types. The average ones might be more like a Josh Jacobs, a
4:01Travis ETN, guys who do catch passes, but it's not like the main thing in their skill set. They're like two and a
4:08half down backs. They're workh horses.
4:10They're like, yeah, just somewhat average bellcows. And then yeah, the non-pass pass catchers. Uh that's your Derrick Henry's, that's your Saquon
4:18Barkley in some seasons of his career.
4:20Uh that's your Jonathan Taylor, your Nick Chubbs, uh classically. So that that's kind of what we're looking at and what we're talking about. And what I
4:28found here is within the first 50 picks and within the first 100 picks, the non-p pass catchers actually smash their ADPs the most often. Uh that's not to
4:39say that the elite pass catchers didn't also hit at really strong rates. They did. Uh but mostly what I found is yeah
4:46even these two down rushers have a lot of upside. Uh they yeah they at pretty strong rates they were turning into
4:55league winning picks and that that's kind of been counterintuitive to how I have approached fantasy football and thought about the running back position
5:04uh over the past handful of years. So I do think that there is some double counting when ADP kind of forms and
5:11people have their takes each season.
5:13It's true, as we'll talk about later, that elite pass catchers are safer uh in that they're less dependent on team environment sometimes, but that doesn't
5:23mean that the non-p pass catchers don't also have really really strong upside.
5:28And if upside wins championships and we're trying to uh draft players in fantasy that are going to lead to these massive upside outcomes because only one
5:39team in in every league wins, we should not kind of yeah just dismiss these non-pass catchers so easily because they they have had these league winning
5:48outcomes.
5:50>> Yeah, I think it's a really interesting one and I noticed the chart you put up before. If you're watching this on the
5:54YouTube stream, if you're listening on the podcast, you can go back also follow Ryan Heath on X. You can follow me on X.
6:00But Ryan dropped a lot of these uh as as tweets and and sort of broke down um in terms of showing like you know this sort
6:08of hit rates uh especially the way you broke it down Ryan from picks one through 49, 50 through 99, and then
6:15picks 100 through 200. What's interesting is the middle archetype type, the projectable volume running back. Those guys often are like the
6:25least exciting fantasy investment.
6:27>> Yeah, they're the least exciting in that they smashed their ADP the least often.
6:32Uh so within the first 50 picks, it was just 10% over the last 5 years compared to 21% and 16% for the guys at the
6:40extremes, right? The non-pass catchers and the elite pass catchers. So they're the least exciting in terms of ceiling offering, right? And then if we go and
6:51think about uh upside versus downside, I had a separate tweet that we can pull up here uh kind of breaking down how often
7:00each of these archetypes were totally busting it at ADP, right? So going below three points below ADP expectation or
7:09five points below ADP expectation. Uh and what we can see is this is maybe a little more intuitive to people, right?
7:16The highest bus rates were the guys that don't catch passes at all. Uh and then kind of in the middle there are those
7:26middle average bell cows. Uh they had slightly they had much lower bus rates than the non-pass catchers going down to
7:34a 10 to 11% bus rate uh for three or fewer points below expectation. Uh and then the elite pass catchers had the
7:42lowest bus rates overall. Uh and and that makes some sense, right? The more uh passes that a running back catches, the less vulnerable he is to things like
7:53uh negative game script, right? Even if the 49ers are losing, that's fine.
7:57Christian McAffrey is going to catch seven checkdowns. Even if they aren't advancing down the field, he's not scoring uh touchdowns. Like that is at
8:05least making up for it, right? But the fewer passes you catch, the less that's the case. And I think this is what has
8:12played into ADP and is what has created kind of the upside outcomes uh for these non-p pass catchers is people are scared
8:23uh because they don't catch passes.
8:25People understand that there's a bigger downside and they let have let them fall in recent years further than they probably should if we're drafting for
8:34upside outcomes. So I think like my big takeaway from this is the guys in the middle like your Josh Jacobs, your
8:42Travis ETN's, those like types of players, you are pretty much only paying for the safety that they provide over the two downon specialists. And on the
8:54screen here we have just every uh two down specialist non passcatching running back season that has hit that league winning threshold. five or more fantasy
9:05points per game over expectation. It's Jonathan Taylor in 2025, James Cook in 2025 as well. Uh David Montgomery, James
9:13Connor, Ken Walker, Derk Henry 2024, uh Raandre Stevenson 2022. I I believe that was his second or third year in the
9:21league. So, he just had a role increase.
9:23Uh and Ken Walker in 2024, who that was his reputation, but of course, he also had the passcatching role increase. So
9:30that that's another possible thing with some of these guys that that are younger. But I I really think that the non-P pass catchers that end up
9:39especially on really good teams so that gamecript is not a problem. They still have these tail end amazing upside outcomes. And you can see on the screen
9:49that most of these non-p pass catchers who smashed, they were on good teams.
9:54Either their team like outperformed the preseason Vegas win total. So they outperformed expectation or they were just a really good team like they they
10:03were an 11 12 15 win team. So those are things I think about um are with these non-p pass catchers is are their teams
10:12going to be good? Do we expect the offenses to be good? Will there be negative game script? Uh will they be
10:17falling behind or not? And then is that actually priced in to their ADPs? And I I think in some cases it is, in some
10:25cases it isn't. And that that'll be interesting to talk through uh with some names for 2026.
10:30>> Yeah. And let's dive right into those names for 2026. And I think when people are looking at non-passcatching running backs, the the name that sort of comes
10:39up first has always been Derk Henry.
10:42Derrick Henry has just been a weapon of mass destruction uh in fantasy football for many, many years, including the previous two seasons in Baltimore. this
10:51past year. He was also the like the league winner for fantasy managers in week 17. Went absolutely nuts. Uh and when you look at Derrick Henry this
11:01year, Ryan, this has been a player that you were notably off off of last year and maybe in previous seasons, but I
11:08think you might be a little bit more open-minded to taking him this year, especially when you look at his ADP price tag.
11:15>> Yeah, exactly. So, given what we just talked about, now that I'm open to the upside of the two down archetype like
11:22Derk Henry, what I'm really looking for is I just don't want to pay for the outcome of yeah, that this team will
11:30just totally smash. Uh, and I think that is kind of the case with Derrick Henry right now. You're getting a bit of a
11:36discount on just the Ravens in general after Lamar Jackson was injured for a big part of last season. They have the
11:44new play caller. Uh they have just a new coaching regime coming in. Like there's more uncertainty around all Ravens right now and that's letting you get Derrick
11:54Henry at the end of round two uh on DraftKings in FFPC and all of these PPR formats, right? Uh and and to me that's
12:03really really enticing because uh when we it comes to these non-p passcatching running backs that the biggest thing is cost. like they have to have a low
12:12enough cost typically outside the top 18 picks when they fall past there. Those are the guys that tend to smash. Uh and
12:21Derrick Henry has just done this so much before. If you just look at his last five years by fantasy points over
12:28expectations, so overperforming his volume, his expected fantasy points per game, he has been in he's been in the positives each of the last five years.
12:39Uh in four out of the last five years, he's exceeded it by two or more fantasy points per game. Uh that's double any
12:47other running back over that time frame.
12:48Christian McAffrey has only had that absurdly efficient season twice. Same with James Cook. Same with Bejon Robinson. All of these guys that are
12:57going in rounds one and round two. Uh H Henry has just had that kind of smash above and beyond his volume more often
13:06than any of these other guys. Uh so yeah, I'm into him on in that sense and I'm into him in the sense that the
13:12Ravens have an 11 and a half win total right now uh in Vegas. That is higher than the Bills have at 10 1/2 and then
13:22the Colts have at 7 1/2. Yet Derrick Henry on PPR platforms is going roughly around later than a Jonathan Taylor or
13:30than a James Cook. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. These are really similar archetype bets. Uh you're
13:36paying less for the Ravens who have a higher median outcome in terms of win total, in terms of their offense supporting a two down grinder. Uh so
13:47yeah, g give me Derrick Henry at the end of round two. I I think he's like a logical click. Uh kind of at he's like
13:54really the end of a tier for me before we get into some round three guys that I don't am not that into. But yeah, I I'm
14:01glad to finally be on the Derrick Henry train. Surely at age 32, this won't be the year that all falls apart. I've been
14:08fading in because somewhat because of age for the last two years. It would be pretty funny if uh that kind of flipped
14:14around on me this year when I finally get on him. But like he he's just so elite. I I really don't at this point
14:20think like the the age matters for him.
14:22Like he he will just keep performing at this level until he doesn't. And I don't want to be the one to try to call
14:28exactly when it will be anymore.
14:30>> It's the 32year-old age. He's shown no signs of regression, but we really don't have any sample size of 32y olds
14:38performing well in fantasy football.
14:40There's only two guys, Ryan, that have ever averaged anything meaningful at age 32. It's Ricky Williams in 2009 who played 16 games and averaged like 15.5
14:50points per game. Then you have Priest Holmes who only played seven games but was averaging like 18 points per game when he went down in 2005. But with
15:00Derrick Henry like he's been getting age apex people in trouble for like five plus years. He's like a completely different type of athlete. So, I think
15:08we sort certainly like throw things out the window. And then you bring up like the running backs also going in in the
15:15range of him in drafts. Like I'm really into Bree Hall at like the beginning of round of round three, but when we
15:21compare like offenses, it's not even close. I think we're way more bullish on like what Baltimore could do this year with Declan Doyle. There's also been
15:29talk about like maybe we see a higher tempo for them. Uh, so Dererick Henry, I think he's got a ton of outs here where
15:36he could deliver at his current ADP cost. And in terms of like betting on him to break down, I mean, next year
15:42we're probably going to be talking on how there's no sample size of any running back at age 33 whatsoever, but we're still like sort of into Derrick
15:49Henry wherever he falls to next year.
15:50The guy is just like unflapable. Uh, really really an interesting player there. Let's pivot over, Ryan. Let's talk about another running back uh that
15:59sort of fits the mold here and we're going to go even higher than Henry, Jonathan Taylor. I've had a ton of
16:07people, really smart people from inside and outside of Fantasy Points on these podcasts over the last couple months, and I haven't met anybody sort of like
16:15fully fading Jonathan Taylor. I know Pat Karine made the argument to take him over Jackson Smith and Jigba in best baseball formats like way way early on
16:25this off seasonason. A bunch of other people have talked about just sort of JT and how he's set for having like immense
16:32success this year. And then if we look at like the age 27 season, three out of the last four RB1s overall have been 27
16:40on the year. So I'm talking myself into a lot of Jonathan Taylor. Where are you at on Jonathan Taylor at like a midfirst
16:47round price tag right now?
16:49>> It's hard for me to argue that that's not where he should go. Um, but I I would bring up a couple of points. Uh,
16:56number one, uh, if if Trey wants to bring the non-P passcatcher history graphic back up that we had up a few
17:03minutes ago. The number one thing that I noticed looking at this is some of like the biggest busts from this non-p
17:10passcatching uh group have been basically when you're buying high on that player had an amazing season last year, their team had an amazing season
17:20last year and you're buying high on the environment effectively, right? Uh we saw that with Jonathan Taylor himself in 2022. Of course, that that was also
17:30injury. Uh we saw that with Saquon Barkley in 2025 near the bottom of this in in terms of yeah just really
17:38underperforming his ADP. Uh that's like a thing that just seems to happen, right? We get we feel really comfortable in the team environment because the
17:47Colts really overperformed last year.
17:50But is that going to happen again? Like Daniel Jones's ADP tells me people don't think that that's going to happen again.
17:55The 7 and a half Vegas win total tells me people don't think that that's going to happen again. Uh Jonathan Taylor's
18:01win loss splits were among the widest that I've ever seen for for a running back last year. Like the Colts offense
18:08really just broke down, especially without Daniel Jones. But it at the end of the year when they weren't controlling games, Taylor was not like a
18:16fun fantasy asset to have really. So that that's like where I'd get in in terms of Taylor's the guy in the first
18:22round that scares me the most, I'd say.
18:25But it if he were going at the end of round two like he was last year, like Derk Henry is this year, then maybe the
18:31riskreward calculus changes for me. But yeah, I think I am just more comfortable with some of the other players uh in the
18:39middle and end of round one than Jonathan Taylor right now. Yeah. No, I get it. I mean, 1500 plus rushing yards
18:45last year, over 1,400 the year before, and then 2023, he was the league winner in the fantasy football playoffs where I
18:53believe he had like six touchdowns in like the 3-week stretch. So, he's been on a on an immense heater. Last year,
19:00Ryan, he did get you the 46 receptions, um, which was huge for him. Got you the 20 touchdowns.
19:08What's a scenario where like he could break fantasy this year? Are you seeing a scenario or is it more like he's a
19:15structural pick which could get you there if you hit really really well in like rounds two and rounds three like what's a bullcase for Taylor look like
19:23for you this year?
19:24>> The bullcase probably looks something like the Colts offense just being even better like and not even from Taylor's perspective but like the overall passing
19:34game as well. Uh like I if all the Josh DS truthers are right and he's actually a way better and more effective receiver
19:41than Michael Pitman and DS is now in an every down role and the passing game is just more explosive. Uh so teams aren't
19:48a so a that helps him out game script-wise and b teams aren't able to just kind of load up the box as we were
19:55seeing at the end of last season. I think that's the bullcase for Taylor. Uh and yeah, certainly RB1 overall is in
20:01the range of outcomes. We we saw that through 11 weeks last year. it just really the train just kind of stopped
20:07running uh at a certain point when the the injuries start to pile up for Daniel Jones. So that's the bullcase is just
20:14like the the Colts offensive personnel is still underrated. It becomes properly rated over the season. We see how good Downs and Tyler Warren takes another
20:23step and they are just actually once again like they were through the first 11 weeks of last year just one of the
20:30top offenses in the league. Um, but yeah, like like I'd said, Vegas doesn't seem convinced by that at all. Uh, most
20:37of their other ADPs don't say that to me, except for literally Taylor's. So, yeah, that that just kind of makes me
20:43question it a little bit.
20:45>> Yeah, it's it's really interesting to kind of hear like the bare case here with Taylor, especially when you look at
20:50team context.
20:52>> I think I'm I've been into like clicking Daniel Jones, especially in baseball. I think he's a little bit mispriced.
20:58>> Yeah. And and I I feel like with with Taylor >> I'm clicking all the other cults to be clear. I I think all the other cults are
21:04underpriced effectively. But >> here we go. So I mean Taylor Taylor could burn you if we have another like he's he's a rare player who's had two
21:12seasons with 20 touchdowns. Like that's it's absolutely crazy. And when we're trying to come up with names that we think could end up leading the NFL in
21:21total touches at the running back positions, like he's one of the first names we'd mentioned. though can get there with volume, but he has to deliver
21:28a massive touchdown ceiling performance.
21:31What do you think about like the 46 receptions? Is that something where you think it was an aberration or you think
21:37it's something where you're open-minded to maybe he can be like deliver that sort of opportunistic passcatcher role and dare I say it cross 50 receptions
21:47for the first time in his career?
21:49>> I I think he can. It's it's on the table. Um he in terms of percent of XFP from receiving last year he was right at
21:5728.6% so he was kind of barely just falling into this like sub 30% bucket for me. That's where he's been most
22:05seasons of his career. I don't know that it's going to dramatically increase.
22:09They had basically nothing behind him in the back field last year. that that is part of the problem I think with the
22:15Colts is they they have just never really found that dependable like third down back that they actually want to put on the field. They've tried rookies.
22:23They drafted another rookie McGawan that might get a shot at that this year. So yeah. Yeah, I think it's totally fair to
22:29think he could could match that or be get Yeah.
22:33maybe even a little uh higher in terms of pass catching, but I yeah, to me it's it's still not enough. He he's not like
22:40this type of player that has the like just a history of seeing all of this work uh in the receiving game just
22:48generally compared to most of the other running backs that you're clicking in round one. So yeah, I he still like belongs in this conversation for me even
22:57if we want to caveat and understand yeah he could he could hit 50 receptions or get a little bit higher than last year.
23:03>> Yeah. So, when we look at Jonathan Taylor, we look at Derrick Henry, those are guys that are that are kind of known
23:08commodities and guys that we've been kind of drafting for years towards like the top of the running back rankings.
23:14James Cook, on the other hand, was a massive ADP winner in 2024, a massive ADP winner in 2025, and now one of the
23:22biggest ADP price corrections that we've seen in quite some time. He's been living inside of the first round. Never ever falls past like the 205. He's
23:32always there, it seems, at like the one two turn in like these FFPC and underdog type drafts. And we've seen him go off
23:40the board as high as like the 107 in some of these early like very high stakes drafts. James Cook has been
23:47fantastic. Over 1,600 rushing yards last year. Uh I believe it's 32 touchdowns in his last 33 regular season games. He's been an absolutely a machine. and Ryan
23:58back-to-back years with like 32 and 33 receptions each did have a season where he was like 44 receptions I believe in
24:072024 right around that number but the backto-back years of delivering in a major way with reception totals inside of the 30s. What are your thoughts on
24:16James Cook and especially when we have to pay this premium price tag for him?
24:20Yeah, I think that when I was talking earlier about fantasy managers double counting the pass catching against guys, uh I I think Cook is maybe the biggest
24:31example of that, just where he's gone in drafts the past couple of seasons. And what we've really seen, uh I I think we
24:38can pretty comfortably say this now. I I think James Cook is a capable pass catcher. I more so than Jonathan Taylor,
24:44more so than Derrick Henry. If a team wanted to use him in a three- down bell cow role, they could and I think he
24:50would have success doing it. But what we've seen from the Bills uh s really since uh he's just become like their
24:56starter. So a after year one or year two of his career, uh they they've just said, "Okay, like we're we're not going
25:03to have Cook be like this three down belcow cuz we want him to stay healthy for the full season." Uh they they did
25:09it for like the first two or three weeks of last year and then Joe Brady came out and was like kind of like, "Oh crap."
25:14like we we need to save James Cook for December. And then he went back to just his hyperefficient two down mostly
25:21rushing role. Uh and and was still to totally good uh and a totally great fantasy pick, right? So I yeah, as I'm
25:30just to long story short, I I think this is basically where Cook should go. I have way fewer concerns about the Bills
25:38offensive environment-wise than I do the Colts. like it it's a lot harder for me to sit here and say, "Yeah, Josh Allen
25:44is actually not going to hit 10 and a half wins and the Bills are actually going to be bad." Like that. That's not
25:48a concern to me at all. So, yeah, I I think Cook is the one that I'm more comfortable with and who I'm more
25:54willing to click uh kind of in late round one, but it is like I it's really just because I I don't see the added
26:03risk to his environment that I think Taylor has. And like Cook is just as capable as Taylor uh of delivering like
26:12this massive Smash season as we've seen.
26:15So yeah, he I'm like more lukewarm slashfine with him whereas and not really as concerned.
26:21>> Yeah, it's interesting with James Cook because we've we've seen him be like boxed out um in terms of like a
26:27passcatching role which it doesn't really make sense because you look at how talented he is with the ball in his hands and space. You'd think that some
26:36coordinator would have been like, "Let's get the ball to James Cook as a receiver." But it's really been the rushing upside that's like driven all of
26:42this fantasy success and of course the touchdowns. I always bring out like the whatif scenario like with Buffalo, you get Pete Carmichael coming over uh from
26:53uh the the the Shawn Payeyton tree. You got Joe Brady stepping up in terms of like being the head coach with Shawn
27:00McDermott leading the way. And people say, you know, Joe Brady was there. he was the OC. Things are gonna kind of
27:06look the same. But what if the wrinkle is increased passcatching work for James Cook? That's like the one thing I gravitate towards because like Jonathan
27:16Taylor as like a the the profile of a back he is it feels like opportunistic whereas James Cook just like sort of it
27:24could be wish casting but it's more just watching him with the ball in space. He feels like a back capable of catching 60
27:31passes if somebody fully committed to it. Do you see him as that, Ryan? And do you think that there is a chance a
27:39chance that a wrinkle this year in Buffalo could be the passcatching upside?
27:43>> Yeah, if I were OC of the Bills, that's how James Cook would be used because, yeah, I I think he is a great pass
27:49catcher and that that would kind of add to their offense. Uh give Josh Allen like a little more like explosive options without having to force it
27:57downfield to all these receivers that can't separate. like I I think that would be a great idea for the Bills to
28:03work in and try. Will it happen? I I'm not really that sure about it. I don't really have a position. I would tend to
28:10think that the offense will largely be similar with Brady still there. Uh but yeah, I don't know if there's if we get
28:17any whispers of that of Carmichael having a bigger impact, uh then I'd be willing to listen certainly because yeah, I do I do think Cook's capable of
28:25kind of taking that next step as a volume pass catcher for sure. And then one more James Cook uh question would be
28:32we're hearing like some rumblings about potentially Alvin Kamara being moved to Buffalo. Buffalo has been mentioned as like a potential destination if the
28:40Saints move him. Uh would that do anything for for you with your enthusiasm for James Cook in this range of drafts to have Kamar there? I kind of
28:49took the answer. Somebody asked me this on a podcast yesterday. I was on the FFPC show last night and I was like it
28:56really wouldn't do much. I think Kamar would sort of be his own thing >> and James Cook, we just would lose the
29:01passcatching upside, but he'd be his own thing. It wouldn't really change much for me. Uh, would it change anything for you?
29:08>> Not really. I think at this point in his career, Alvin Chimera is pretty analogous to Tai Johnson and what he's
29:14done with the Bills for the last couple years. Like I Yeah, I don't see it as that different. So, yeah, may maybe it
29:21like closes off that upside route or like get gives the Bills another option for that role. But yeah, I don't think
29:27it would. If there were a James Cook discount off of that transaction, I would be interested, I guess, is what I'd say.
29:33>> So, I've done podcasts with Scott Barrett and Graham Barfield recently where they've been very negative towards Travis ETN. Um, and I've sort of pushed
29:42back that Travis ETN I think would have a decent passcatching role in this Kell Moore offense. And I understand like not
29:50wanting to take Travis ETN at like the two-3 turn, but I've been sort of open-minded to him in like the middle of
29:56the third, late third, especially if I need to play catch-up at running back.
30:00But is is ETN actually kind of a perfect example of your safe but limited upside draft pick? Am I wrong to be
30:08enthusiastic about Travis ETN considering his third round price tag?
30:12>> Yeah, I think he's exactly safe but limited upside. Uh ju just to kind of like resummarize what we talked about
30:18earlier in the show in my three archetypes. There's the elite pass catchers, that's your Christian McAffrey types. Those are high upside and low
30:26downside. Uh there's your non-p pass catchers, your two down specialists.
30:31Those are high upside as we've seen Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, but also high downside, right? their teams can go belly up and then if the offense isn't
30:39good, these guys are game script sensitive, but it means that uh people uh double count that against them, you can get ADP discounts and get smashes on
30:48those guys. But yeah, Travis ETN is like the perfect example of the third category, just the guys in the middle.
30:54They're decent pass catchers. I'd say that about Travis ETN. Uh but not an elite pass catcher, right? There's safe projectable volume happening there, but
31:04I don't really see the upside in these types of selections because their safety is like properly valued by the by the
31:12ADP market. People are putting a premium on the safety. You're not really getting the upside because of that out of these
31:19picks. And yeah, ETN is a really good example. He's to me he's not such an amazingly talented receiver that he has
31:26to demand targets over a Chris Lave or a Jordan Tyson or even a Jawan Johnson, right? And when we look at Kell Moore's
31:35history specifically, he's actually not been very good in terms of giving targets and PPR volume to running backs or or volume in general. Yeah, we have
31:46up here on on the screen uh just looking at play callers by their total backfield expected fantasy points per game, which
31:53is like a very weighted volume stat. Uh Kell Moore is 30th out of 33 qualifying play callers over the past three
32:02seasons. Uh if you just look at what the target shares did uh when he came to all of these different offenses when he uh
32:12joined the Chargers, we saw Austin Eckler go from a 17% target share down to under 14% as soon as Kell Moore
32:19arrived. Saquon Barkley before Kell Moore was there was at 13.8% fell down to 9.6%.
32:27And Alvin Chimera last year of course uh fell from 19.6% 6% like insane usage with Clint Kubak to last year just a 10%
32:36target share. Of course, part of that is was he's washed. He was also kind of washed in 2024 if we're being real. So,
32:43yeah, I think we've seen this with enough different running backs now that Kell Moore is not going to force targets to the back field. Uh yeah, there's just
32:51been so so many examples of that kind of happening that I really think not not only does Travis ETN not offer this
32:59explosive upside. I I think the what we're assuming about his workload is probably a little bit overrated. Uh they will run a lot of plays certainly, but
33:08it's a lot of it's going to be drop backs. I think it the Saints could be near the top of the league in pass rate
33:14and I don't think ETN's going to be that overly involved in the passing game. Uh, another stat for you is that he was I I
33:22think it was two and a half fantasy points per game last year ETN got just from design targets. Uh, designed targets are a big uh feature of the Liam
33:30Con offense that we were talking about last year, right? Uh, and that's going to go away with Kell Moore. He doesn't
33:36really design targets to his running backs. They all go to Chris Ave. So, yeah, ETN for me is just like what do
33:44you win when you win? Like not that much. you just kind of stay afloat with a running back in round three. Uh, and
33:50if you lose, it's Yeah, he's a low-end RB2 just because he doesn't have the passcatching volume on what I I'm into
33:59Kelton Moore. I'm into the offense, but this is not like an elite offense, right? This is this is not an offense
34:05where we can reasonably expect 16 20 rushing touchdowns for a running back.
34:10So, yeah, I'm pretty much completely off of ETN. I I think probably I think he's like the quintessential dead zone running back to to put like another kind
34:20of term to it that people like and will stick in everyone's mind.
34:23>> Yeah. No, I agree. I think he actually probably represents the start of like the dead zone this year because I don't
34:30think you can't put the words dead zone and Bree Hall in like the same sentence.
34:35Uh Bree Hall, you know, we've seen the sort of upside there. Bree Hall goes behind Jeremiah Love goes behind Derrick Henry. So, like I don't think those guys
34:42are the dead zone. I think the dead zone actually we're sort of back to being the third round being dead zone time. Um,
34:49but when I look at like the other dead zone options, I gravitate towards Travis ETN and a lot of it might be structural
34:56drafting. Um, and I agree with you to an extent that he's he's somewhat of a compiler where he needs a high number of
35:04touches to deliver. Um, but I do think when I look at the teammate competition in the backfield in in uh New Orleans,
35:11especially considering that I'm projecting them to move off of Kamar before the year, and Kamar is pretty dusty when we want when we got to want
35:18to going to keep it real here, Ryan. I know Kamar is a fantasy football legend, but I don't think he's a player that is
35:23going to have a massive 2026 season in sort of any setting. I think ETN's in a spot where he's going to get a lot of
35:30volume. the offense is going to be pretty good and it's a a click that I'd be willing to make. Like I like him more
35:36than Kairen Williams, certainly Josh Jacobs, and then you look down at like Cam Scaboo, Quinn Sean Judkins. I think ETN offers me at least, and I know you
35:46you're using safety as a negative. I'll use safety as sort of a positive here.
35:50If I have a wide receiver, wide receiver start or if I go running back, wide receiver, um I'm able to sort of get a a
35:58predictable volume um running back two and then sort of I can move back to taking shots on upside in rounds like
36:05four, five, and six and sort of catch up there. So, I understand both sides of it. Do I think he's a my guy this year
36:12and a guy that I need to walk away with?
36:13Absolutely not. But if I'm searching for a running back, uh, a running back in like the mid to late third, I think he's
36:20still my favorite click. So, the two of us will debate Travis ETN and his merits, I think, throughout the offseason. Um, he was again a huge ADP
36:28correction guy. Went from like round seven, round eight at one point last year when we were debating Bashel Tutin versus Travis ETN, uh, to round three
36:38this year. So, you're paying a huge correction price. And Ryan, I bet it would be good research for you to kind
36:44of look at guys whose ADP improved at least five rounds that are not like year two guys. What are the hit rates on them
36:52over the years? I bet it's pretty bad.
36:54So, a five round improvement on a guy who's passed year two, not usually a good hit rate on that in in general. But
37:01an even bigger ADP correction, like we talked about James Cook ADP correction, we talked about Travis ETN ADP correction. An even bigger ADP
37:09correction was Jvonte Williams. Javvante Williams at this time last year, we're talking about June 2025, you know, pop in the time machine and go back in time.
37:19There were serious fantasy analysts debating Javvante Williams versus Jaden Blue and which one you should click on at this point in drafts. Javvante
37:28Williams, of course, had a an awesome year for Dallas. Justified a contract.
37:34uh gets paid by Dallas, doesn't leave Dallas, so he avoids like new situation fade, but now Williams is going right alongside Travis Etienne and Kairen
37:45Williams as a late third round pick.
37:48Running back 17 in ADP. Again, last year everything went well volumewise. Huge ADP hit, but are we getting a little ahead of ourselves right now with having
37:58to pay this price tag for him, Ryan?
38:00>> I think so. Yeah. And it's not even with with both ETN and Williams. It's not that I'm super down on them like
38:06relative to the other running backs in this range. I'm I'm just kind of down on most of the running backs in this range.
38:11Like I said, I I do think that is the dead zone basically with with these two with uh Kairen Williams just that that
38:18whole like round three at post Derrick Henry, Bruce Hall coming off the board, it it just gets a little bit gross to
38:25me. Low upside. Uh but yeah, to bring Williams into this kind of conversation in terms of passcatching, he's another guy that falls into that kind of average
38:36inthe-middle uh pass catching archetype that has not given us very much upside and has kind of just had fantasy managers overpaying for safety in the
38:47past 5 years. But looking at Williams uh passcatching role, I I think with him specifically, it might be even a little
38:54bit worse than that, then that kind of lets on because so many of his targets came in the four games that CD Lamb
39:04missed. Uh from weeks three to six, Lamb was out of week three like within one or two drives, I believe. So I just counted
39:11it as that four game split. uh 38% of Javvante Williams' targets just in that week three through six time frame. Uh
39:20without CD Lamb, he had a 12.2% target share uh average per game. That was the RB8. In games with CD Lamb active, uh
39:29Williams target share came down to 6.4%.
39:32That would have been the RB 45 behind guys like Quinn Sean Judkins, Ken Walker. So like guys that we think of as
39:39like not pass catchers at all. But I I really do think the ADP is saying, "Yeah, he's a two and a half down
39:45workhorse that will see the passcatching work." That is very safe. I don't know if that is even true with Javvante Williams. Uh didn't have a single game
39:53above a 10% target share after Lamb came back in week seven.
39:59Like part of this is his like snap share was a little weird for a few games. He was having like a neck injury that was
40:07kind of popping up and popping down. uh they they were like do doing weird stuff like just throwing to him but giving him
40:15like no routes other than when they were going to throw to him for a couple of games. So that like maybe like it's I'm
40:21overselling the case here that Javvante Williams is like a fake pass catcher, but I I think overall that's how I feel
40:28and where I come down. And it yeah, he's just another one of these dead zone guys in late round three that I I think is a
40:36pretty poor bet in terms of upside because as you were talking about, I would rather just try to get the projectable volume players in round
40:45seven and round eight and round nine and like the guy like last year's Javvante Williams, Travis ETN, give me Rashad White this year. uh if I'm trying to
40:53like go that route and find like the just the projectable volume role uh as opposed to drafting these guys in round
41:01three when they really don't have the league winning season in their range of outcomes. Yeah, I I think it's more like
41:08a for me it's like the opportunity cost where maybe I'm not as I'm not like down down on Javvante Williams. Like I
41:15mentioned some of the other guys, you know, going alongside Travis ETN, but it's like the opportunity cost. Like if I take Javvante Williams, it means I
41:24don't take Josh Allen. It means I don't take Devont Smith. It means I don't take a Mecha Eggbuka. So it's like you're
41:30trying to catch up structurally. And I understand the appeal of the Dallas Cowboys where it's one of those teams where you believe in so many pieces and
41:39then you're not really fearful of like like Malik Davis and Jaden Blue. But it just like you said, Ryan, I mean, I get
41:46it. Travis Tienne and Javvante Williams are very appealing from a structural side and if they stay fully upright, the touches will be there. But again, it's
41:56sort of like a not necessarily like the most upside pick you can make by any means in that range. So, I get it. I
42:01think a lot of your arguments today, and we'll talk about draft structure and strategy as we get through the summer, but a lot of your arguments today are
42:09really really for the merits of having at least uh not if not going hero RB, at least having a very strong anchor RB in
42:18round one or round two where you don't necessarily need to dive into the dead zone quite as hard to play catch-up. I I
42:26feel like we'll cover that as we get a little bit further into the summer. And I think Scott's a little bit on that
42:31train, even if he hasn't fully processed it yet. Just talking to you guys, like it just feels like that's where we're
42:37heading where you guys are probably going to be in some sort of a hero or anchor RB like a maybe you're maybe
42:44you're going to be on a robust RB start, Ryan, just so you have to avoid this range. Yeah, I I think that really is a
42:51strong conclusion from this is I I agree with you when you say, "Oh, structurally they're appealing like you you need a
42:57running back there." But yeah, I would say to that, let maybe we should draft our team such that we don't have to
43:02draft a running back uh in the dead zone at the end of round three. Yeah, go just start running back running back at the
43:08turn if you're drafting at the end of the first round. I think those builds are really strong this year uh ju just
43:14for that exact reason. Uh so yeah. Yeah.
43:17And I think you can do hero RB, but certainly you need one running back through two rounds. Like I I am not
43:22entertaining. We we did a video on zero RB over on the baseball channel, me and Jacob Sanderson, and I think we did a
43:28decent job, but I we say throughout that I I don't think that this is necessarily the optimal strategy. Like you have to
43:34do some really uncomfortable things at running back. And that that doesn't include to me like, oh, let's draft a projectable volume guy in round three. I
43:42think you have to go way off the board if you're doing uh like a true uh zero RB start through just through two
43:49rounds. So yeah, that's I regardless of the strategy I'm taking like yeah, I'm just trying to not draft running backs in late round three. I feel like that
43:58that is just like the siren song of fantasy football this year that I'm trying to avoid.
44:03>> There we go. There we go. And let's talk about one more running back here. Uh if Josh Jacobs obviously has a ton of off
44:09the- field things he's dealing with right now. We don't know fully what the 2026 outlook will be like. There's a chance he voids pretty much anything
44:17legally, but there's always the commissioner is exempt. We're not going to litigate any of that. Let's say Josh Jacobs comes out of it fully unscathed
44:26and we're simply looking at Josh Jacobs, the player without the off off the- field issues and he's going to play a
44:33full 2026 season. Where should he be going in drafts? like he was going right alongside Bree Hall as like that player
44:42you could click near the two three turn on like underdog and FFPC before the off the- field stuff. Now you're starting to
44:48see him fall into a range where he's like a very late third all the way to like the end of the fourth depending on
44:54your format. But looking at it with averse to the off the- field stuff, what should how should you view Josh Jacobs?
45:01Yeah, I think ADP had it basically right before this stuff popped up with with the off the- field. I I think he is kind
45:09of an upgraded version of this archetype of ETN and Javvante Williams that we've been discussing where I don't think the massive ceiling outcome is there, but
45:18the the safety in terms of this guy's going to get a ton of touches and play two and a half downs certainly is. Uh
45:24we've seen it from him through stretches of each of the last two seasons. really where it was kind of starting to show
45:31cracks last year was just when he would get banged up. Suddenly he comes out and it's a 55% snapshare. It's a time share
45:38with Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson.
45:40But yeah, you can if you're willing to do the weekby- week splits of like when is Jacobs on the injury report versus
45:47when is he actually close to fully healthy, he looks like the best freaking running back ever. Then then he's like an 181 19 fantasy points per game guy if
45:54you take out all of the injured games, right? So that that's like another risk factor with him I think too as he gets
46:02more up there in age has accumulated more lower body injuries that that's like something I'm thinking about with him. So yeah to me if not for the off
46:11the- field stuff I I think he belongs right there in like mid to late round three. I think he's a more defensible
46:18like oh my god structural like I have to save this team and draft a running back now type of click. I I think I would
46:24rather do that with a Jacobs than with an ETN or a Williams just cuz there's more of a history of like yes, this is
46:32what Josh Jacobs is going to do. He'll finishes between the RB8 and the RB12 and that's just kind of what you're
46:39getting. Uh, but yeah, depending how much his ADP starts to fall. I I think the the way I end up with Josh Jacobs
46:46this year is that he just kind people kind of forget about this and he just stays down there like into the early
46:54middle of round four. If that starts happening, then then it's like, okay, I feel like I'm getting a genuine discount on uncertainty here. Uh, my
47:03understanding is that this stuff, this off the- field stuff is unlikely to make him miss any games this year. uh that
47:10I've read like one Twitter thread though, so don't take that as gospel for me. But yeah, I to me I am interested
47:16honestly in like the discount. Um but it's still not like an archetype of oh this guy's going to be a league winner.
47:22So that that's going to be pretty limited. That's just like how I would get any exposure really. Yeah, I I I
47:28think that he's you pretty much nailed it with Josh Jacobs and it's one where we're going to keep an eye on what's
47:33going on in terms of the off the- field stuff because he would make drafting running backs in in that range a little
47:39bit easier. Now, with sort of the Jacobs uh off the- field stuff, as well as a couple of guys with injury concerns like
47:46a Bucky Irving, it's made running back drafting more challenging. But hopefully after watching this show, you're going to have an open mind as to a couple guys
47:53who are easier clicks, maybe the structural elements uh uh that you should be attacking in drafts and running backs you should be avoiding.
48:00Make sure you check out all of Ryan's work over at fantasypoints.com. You can find all of my work over there as well.
48:06and look for Ryan to be joining me each and every week right here on Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points
48:12YouTube network. Uh, and check out all of the work that Ryan's putting out with Jacob Sanderson over on the baseball side. And check out Ryan Heath and I,
48:21all of our Dynasty work uh, from Dynasty Points and Dynasty Life. You can find that over at Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube. We're everywhere here at
48:30Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.
48:40>> [music]
