STOP Drafting These Players 🚨 Top 12 Overvalued & Undervalued (2026 Fantasy) w/ Jared Smola

Failed miserably as a one-two turn type selection in redraft, serving as a cautionary example of year-two wide receiver busts.

Has not reached 190 passing yards per game in any of his three NFL seasons and averages 6.0 yards per pass attempt, ranking 36th among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, limiting his receivers' upside.

No longer viewed as a foundational dynasty piece like he was a year ago, representing a significant downgrade in dynasty value.

Identified as an upside player to target if healthy, offering potential breakout opportunity in the running back range.

Had 100 receptions last year and has strong potential in the Kellen Moore offense as long as he stays healthy.

Watson is ranked WR20 in half-PPR projections but WR29 in Underdog Best Ball ADP, representing significant undervaluation. He could set career highs in volume while remaining an efficient player and big-time touchdown scorer.

Watson posted career bests in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run last season while ranking top-6 among 76 qualifying wide receivers in both metrics, and another year removed from his January 2025 ACL tear could unlock another level to his game.

With Romeo Doubs (85 targets, 26 red zone targets, 10 end zone targets) departing, Watson should become a virtual full-time player in the Packers offense, clearing the path for him to be the clear top option among Green Bay's wide receivers.

Watson could end up with 12-13 touchdown catches if things go well, and potentially 120 targets if the Packers commit more to passing, drawing parallels to George Pickens' 2024 usage.

Steamed up to WR27 on Underdog despite concerns about his current ability, posting career lows in receiving grade and yards per route run in two straight seasons.

Was 60th among 76 wide receivers with 50+ targets in yards per route run, 55th in PFF receiving grade, 35th in fantasy points separation score, and 37th in win rate.

Unlikely to reach the 25-26% target share he had in previous seasons; expected to see only 20-22% of targets in the Bills' run-leaning offense under Joe Brady.

Comes in five or six spots overvalued based on current ADP, with concerns about the Bills' run-leaning offense limiting his upside.

Analyst likes Dalton Kincaid as a reliable tight end option in the Bills offense.

Adams caught 14 touchdown passes in 14 games last year, his first season as a Ram, and the Rams made no significant wide receiver additions in the draft, maintaining his role.

Adams is WR26 in Underdog ADP but WR17 in half-PPR rankings, making him probably the most undervalued wide receiver based on projections versus ADP.

Adams had 14.9 expected receiving touchdowns last year (5.7 more than any other WR), led with 27 end zone targets (12 more than the next receiver), and 44 red zone targets (5 more than any other receiver).

Adams was the Rams' goal line offense, with Stafford using quick dropbacks and slants or fades to Adams inside the 5-yard line rather than handing off to Kyren Williams, a role that was super effective and likely to continue.

Chargers have been linked to David Njoku in recent reports, potentially adding another tight end option to the offense.

Could be in store for an awesome season when A.J. Brown is traded, offering significant upside at a similar ADP to McMillan.

Drake May is QB7 in ADP despite finishing QB3 last year and ranking QB3 in current projections, making him one of the best values if targeting elite quarterbacks early in drafts.

Drake May led the NFL in completion rate, completion rate over expected, and yards per pass attempt (8.9, 17th best in NFL history), finished QB3 in passing touchdowns, and provided rushing production (3rd in attempts, 4th in yards, 8th in TDs).

May finished QB3 in fantasy points per game in his second NFL season with a mediocre supporting cast, and the additions of Romeo Dobbs and likely A.J. Brown (75% probability) will significantly improve his weapons.

Despite facing a tougher schedule in 2026, May should see increased pass attempts as the Patriots play more competitive games and from behind, offsetting any efficiency decline.

Drake May has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 420 rushing yards, with potential for that number to tick up in 2026.

Available seven spots lower than McMillan with potentially higher ceiling outcome due to superior quarterback play with Baker Mayfield and a better offense.

Reports suggest he could be available for week one, but analyst is not buying that timeline, creating uncertainty around his availability.

Valued correctly at RB5 range and current ADP, properly priced after a contract extension made him a workhorse.

Had insane touchdown efficiency in 2024 but production matched usage in 2025, with contract extension making him a true workhorse back with upside potential.

Jacobs is going off the board as RB14 but is undervalued, with 28 rushing touchdowns over the last 2 years and near the top of the league in expected rushing touchdowns and carries inside the 5-yard line.

Jacobs was RB7 and RB9 in half-PPR points per game over the last two seasons but is going much later in ADP, representing significant undervaluation.

Through week 10 last year, Jacobs was RB5 in half-PPR points per game and RB3 in expected half-PPR points per game with 18 carries and 3.8 targets per game, and the Packers made no significant backfield additions this offseason.

As long as Josh Jacobs is healthy, he will be a workhorse back on a good team with big touchdown upside, especially in half-PPR formats like Underdog, making him five to six spots undervalued at RB14.

Jacobs has caught 36 passes in back-to-back seasons and has even caught a couple of touchdown passes in Green Bay, providing solid receiving production alongside his rushing volume.

If the Chargers offense explodes, Justin Herbert is positioned to benefit most; also has a solid floor as a reliable fantasy option as long as his offensive line stays healthy.

Not exciting but reliable slot receiver who will remain involved in the Bills offense.

Failed miserably as a second round selection in redraft, exemplifying the risk of early-round year-two wide receiver picks.

Got hurt last year, receiving a pass from the bust discussion due to injury rather than performance concerns.

Can be acquired 13 picks lower than Bucky Irving, offering better value as an upside running back option if healthy.

In his 8 games last year, Rice had a 26.5% target share and played a huge red zone role with 19 red zone targets (7th most among WRs), and was 4th among receivers in expected receiving touchdowns.

Rashee Rice is a target hog playing with Patrick Mahomes, with Kansas City making no significant additions to the pass-catching core this offseason, positioning him as a strong ADP value.

Rice controlled targets for the Chiefs consistently: 31.5% target share in 3 full games in 2024, and 24% target share over his final 10 games as a rookie, demonstrating a pattern of high target volume.

Rice is projected to see 25% of the Chiefs' targets again this season, which is good enough value at his current ADP cost.

Rice is ranked WR7 in projections but WR8 in ADP overall, yet comes in as the 11th overall player in projections while being 20th in ADP overall, representing significant undervaluation.

Despite back-to-back lower body injuries ending his seasons, Rice did not have injury issues in college and is not more injury-prone than any other high-volume wide receiver, making him a buy on injury discount.

Rice is set to become a free agent in 2027 and Kansas City is likely to resign him based on their offseason moves, providing stability and motivation for a strong 2026 season.

Could smash this year if Joe Burrow stays healthy, offering better value than McMillan at a similar ADP.

Kelce is another year older and on the decline at this point, nearing the end of his career, which benefits Rashee Rice's target share.