8 Receiver Landmines I'm Avoiding

Added to the Patriots, creating the most target competition Romeo Dobs has ever faced.

Brian Thomas Jr. was hurt most of last season but every camp report says he looks dramatically better this year, and he was already ahead of Travis Hunter in the pecking order before Hunter's ACL tear.

Caleb Williams is in the same draft range as Parker Washington (WR34 ADP), presented as a preferable elite quarterback option.

Carnell Tate is presented as a preferable alternative to DJ Moore, available in round six with better value than Moore's round five ADP.

Christian Watson is being drafted after DJ Moore in the same range as Roma Dunay and Carnell Tate.

Colston Loveland was competing for targets in Chicago alongside DJ Moore, Roma Dunay, Luther Burden, and Olamide Zakias.

DJ Moore is fading due to a three-year trend of declining efficiency: yards per route run fell from 2.34 (2023) to 1.5 (2024) to 1.26 (2025), and target earning ability collapsed from 8.2 to 5 targets per game. At age 29 in his ninth year, historical comps at age 28 averaged fewer than 10 PPG the following year, yet Moore is priced as WR27 expecting a 20-spot jump on a team change alone.

Landed in Buffalo where Josh Allen spreads the ball to 12-13 guys every week, making it extremely difficult to justify his draft cost despite the situation change.

DeAndre Swift is presented as a preferable alternative to DJ Moore in the same draft range, offering better value.

Devonte Smith is cited as an age 23 comp for Parker Washington; none of Washington's comps hit 15 PPG the following year.

Drake May is in the same draft range as Parker Washington (WR34 ADP), presented as a preferable elite quarterback option.

Projects for 650-750 receiving yards with approximately 4.5 touchdowns, outpacing Josh DS's projected production.

Projects to outscore Khalil Shakir in the same range, but at the tight end position where he provides better value.

Jameson Crowder is cited as an age 23 comp for Parker Washington; none of Washington's comps hit 15 PPG the following year.

Jaden Daniels is in the same draft range as Parker Washington (WR34 ADP), presented as a preferable elite quarterback option.

Was Romeo Dobs's only target competition when Dobs achieved his career-best WR44 finish.

Jordan Tyson is presented as a preferable receiver alternative to DJ Moore, available in round six with better value.

Spreads the ball extensively, with 12-13 guys touching the ball every week, making it difficult to justify the cost of receivers like DJ Moore or Khalil Shakir.

Josh Downs is a landmine despite being touted as a breakout candidate again after Michael Pittman Jr.'s departure; his career-best finish is only WR31, last year he finished WR56, and the situation has three holes: Alec Pierce was paid serious money, Tyler Borne outplayed him as a rookie, and Indianapolis projects to regress from 27.5 PPG to 22.5 PPG.

Keenan Allen had 7.1 targets per game, mentioned as context for Lad McConi's bullish points.

Was Khalil Shakir's target competition in Buffalo before DJ Moore arrived.

In his fifth NFL season, has only had four games with 20+ fantasy points in his entire career despite having Josh Allen all to himself with minimal target competition.

The best situation Shakir will ever have with zero target competition just ended with DJ Moore landing in Buffalo, yet the market is still charging premium prices for him.

Khalil Shakir is the target competition for DJ Moore in Buffalo alongside Concincaid.

Despite bullish points (Keenan Allen's 7.1 targets gone, Chargers offense improving to 24 PPG, age-24 comps averaging 16+ PPG), McConkey is a landmine because he regressed from WR19 to WR37 in year two, and the Keenan Allen excuse is weak—a 33-year-old Allen wouldn't have stopped a JSN-level talent from breaking out.

Lamar Jackson is presented as a preferable alternative to DJ Moore in the same draft range, offering better value.

Despite a bullish case (Bears top-10 offense, DJ Moore's 5 targets gone, elite efficiency at 2.7 yards per route run and 10.9 yards per target), Burden is a landmine because he only ran 15 routes per game as a rookie despite elite efficiency, yet the coaching staff couldn't get him on the field over Olamide Zakias—suggesting he's not a JSN-level talent.

Luther Burden was competing for targets in Chicago alongside DJ Moore, Roma Dunay, Colston Loveland, and Olamide Zakias.

Projects to outscore Khalil Shakir in the same range, but at the tight end position where he provides better value.

Author would consider taking Marvin Harrison Jr. as a receiver option if looking to swing on a receiver in the draft.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is presented as a preferable receiver alternative to Parker Washington in the same draft range.

Priced similarly to Romeo Dobs but offers a potentially higher ceiling in reddraft leagues.

Added to the 49ers offense, increasing target competition for Ricky Piol.

Parker Washington is fading due to a three-week heater (weeks 16-18) that occurred when Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter were injured, creating an empty room that will be full again. Full-season production was WR39 at 10.79 PPG, and his age 23 comps (Devonte Smith, Pierre Gerson, etc.) never hit 15 PPG the following year. The Jaguars are projected to regress 4.5 PPG offensively.

Rome Odunze is the better value compared to Luther Burden, going in round five versus Burden's round four, despite the author ranking Burden slightly ahead—they should go back-to-back, not two rounds apart.

Career best finish is WR44 with 44 points per game when his only competition was rookie Jaden Reed; now faces the most target competition of his career with AJ Brown on the Patriots.

The Patriots are projected to score almost six fewer points per game this season, nearly a full touchdown of regression, similar to the Colts' expected decline.

Despite being priced similarly to Matthew Golden and Casey Conception, it's very difficult to imagine him becoming a league-winning player with AJ Brown as the clear WR1.

Projects for 650-750 receiving yards with approximately 4.5 touchdowns, outpacing Josh DS's projected production.

Sammy Watkins is cited as an age 23 comp for Parker Washington; none of Washington's comps hit 15 PPG the following year.

The only wide receiver ever to be relevant with Josh Allen, highlighting how difficult it is for other receivers to produce in Buffalo's offense.

Travis Hunter suffered a torn ACL and was done for the year, and before the injury he was already behind Brian Thomas Jr. in the pecking order.

Projects to outscore Khalil Shakir in the same range, but at the tight end position where he provides better value.

Presented as a better alternative to Ricky Piol at a similar price point, offering more reliable production.