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Top 10 Breakout RBs for 2026
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Jul 20, 2026
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Mon, July 20, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00I'm going to give you my 10 most likely running back breakouts going from the least likely to the most likely. Now,
0:05how I'm going to define a potential running back breakout is a running back that has not turned 26 years old yet and
0:10a running back that has not finished as a top 20 RB in points per game. Some running backs that I'm incredibly
0:16excited about this season that I think will be much better than last year are Genty, Amari Hampton, and Cam Scataboo.
0:23But all those guys have already broken out in my definition. So, we're not going to talk about them in this video.
0:28I'm going to talk about the true breakouts. Guys like Katon Mitchell.
0:32Yes, Katon Mitchell's coming in at 10.
0:34I'm not going to waste your time too too much with this dude because obviously he is the least likely. But I do need to
0:40talk about him a bit because this is a running back that is only 24 years old.
0:45He's going into his fourth NFL season.
0:47We have seen the efficiency with Keaton Mitchell early on in his NFL career be insane. We can go back to his 2023
0:55season where he averaged 8.4. 4 yards per carry as a rookie. Yes, he had about 49 and a half rushing yards per game off
1:04of fewer than six carries per game. And then this past season in Baltimore, he averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. And if
1:13we look at the contract that he got from the Los Angeles Chargers, it's actually pretty damn good. Keep in mind just for
1:20these running back contracts, running backs don't get paid much in the NFL.
1:23Now, obviously, they get paid much more than you do, much more than I do. I would love this Katon Mitchell contract,
1:29but for reference, we're looking at Rashad White in Washington getting paid like a million and a half dollars, right? Running backs don't get paid
1:35much. Um, Katon Mitchell, on the other hand, just got a two-year $9.25 million deal from the Los Angeles Chargers. $5
1:44million guaranteed at signing in comparison to Rashad White at 1.5. I'm sure y'all heard this story, but the new offensive coordinator coming over from
1:53Miami, he printed out Katon Mitchell's face, put it on the wall in his office, and put wanted go get me this guy.
2:03Right? So, it's a perfect narrative for people to get real excited about. I'm going to be honest with you, though.
2:08I've heard the comps of, oh, this is going to be like the prime moer, Devon Aan season with Amari Hampton and Keaton
2:15Mitchell being the onetwo punch for the Los Angeles. That's not going to be the case. Amarian Hampton is a bellcow.
2:21Amarian Hampton is an elite level running back. Katon Mitchell doesn't come close to that, but Keaton Mitchell could be a massive breakout if we were
2:29to get an injury to Marian Hampton ahead of him. So, I really don't want you to be stressing too much about him unless
2:36again we were to see Hampton go down and then all of a sudden he will be the top waiverwire pickup of the season. Now,
2:42let's go over to Woody Marks. Woody Marks again very unlikely for us to see the breakout here either. I would almost
2:48say that he is also a pure handcuff play if we were to see an injury to David McGomery. I would say the ceiling is
2:55higher with Katon Mitchell. Woody Marks is going to give you a higher floor though just because I actually think that he is going to get involved as a
3:01receiver even with the healthy David McGomery in Houston. But he's also already 25 and a half years old. Like it's funny, he is over a year older than
3:10Katon Mitchell despite being in the league for two years less. But again, he's just going to be the handcuff to David McGomery. Technically, I want to
3:18throw him on the list of the top 10 running back breakouts, but I still think it's very unlikely where we're at
3:24here. Now, let's go over to Jakori Kroski Merritt. I don't want to spend much time here either because I feel like we've talked about Jakori Kroski
3:31Merritt a decent amount over the past few videos. is a rookie running back that comes in, has all the hype in the
3:37world, uh doesn't do much with it, right? He's the running back 43 in points per game. He's sitting here at 4.6 yards per attempt. So, the overall
3:45efficiency looks good, but the receiving production is garbage. He averages fewer than one target per game. So, I would say the ceiling's going to be a little
3:54bit capped with Jakori Kroski Merritt.
3:56Maybe the floor is high because I would expect him to be in a running back by committee with Rashad White. Now, one
4:02thing that's going to be an interesting note, of course, as we go through all these running backs is making sure that
4:07you're monitoring the price with them.
4:09Like a good example of where this will matter is with our next running back in Jonathan Brooks. So, if I'm looking at
4:15the updated ADP from the ADP consensus sheet on flockfantasy.com right now, Jonathan Brooks has an ADP of pick 138
4:24in sleeper drafts, 106 in ESPN, 98 in Yahoo, 102 in underdog, and then 77 in the FFPC. So ultimately how I would view
4:35this is if you're using our draft sheets on flockfantasy.com for your sleeper drafts, you're probably going to see Jonathan Brooks being a massive value.
4:44Whereas if you're in an FFPC draft, if you're in an underdog draft, it's maybe a little bit tougher to take him there.
4:49Now, of course, I want to point out to you all those draft sheets on flockfantasy.com are already live. We have over 50 variations to match your
4:56exact league settings. Whether you're playing in nonPR, half PPR, full PPR, superflex, tight end premium, um, one quarterback, whatever it may be, you
5:04could play in a league where you start one flex spot, two flex spots. We have draft sheets made custom for you, as
5:09well as live draft assistance. You'll get all that for your reddraft leagues for only $34 with the flockfantasy.com season pass. And if you use code flock
5:17when you sign up to flock fantasy.com, I'm going to be answering your questions for free as well during the live streams
5:23I'm going to be doing every single night during the season. But as we go through and look at this Jonathan Brooks
5:28profile, it is impossible to say anything about him from a NFL perspective. We have not seen him do anything in his NFL career. He's only
5:39been active for three games. He played 8% of the snaps in week 12 of his rookie season and he had two carries for seven
5:47rushing yards. In week 13, he had six carries for 18 rushing yards. And then in week 14, he had one carry for
5:54negative three rushing yards and he tore his ACL yet again. So now Jonathan Brooks is coming off of two ACL tears.
6:02He took the entire 2025 season off. But if we go through and look at the last time that he had meaningful work in a
6:09real football game, we have to go back to his time at the University of Texas.
6:14Now Hookham Horns, you know, I'm going to root for my University of Texas players, but let's go through and let's look at this game log. The last time he
6:21had over 20 rushing attempts in a game, or even 10 rushing attempts in a game, was 2023, November 11th.
6:30That is almost 3 years ago at this point. So, he was a phenomenal back at the University of Texas. He was so good
6:38that he went into the NFL with the torn ACL. Obviously, no combine testing numbers. Obviously, teams aren't able to get him in the building and run him
6:47around at practice. and he still managed to be a second round NFL draft pick.
6:51That is how good he was. And at the same time, he's incredibly young. He's 23 years old. Keep in mind, he just turned
6:5823. We just talked about Jakory Kroski Merritt being 25 and a half. Woody Marks 25 and a half. So, he is years younger
7:06than some running backs that were just rookies last season. Now, with all that in mind, he has very little competition with Chuba Hubard. So Woody Marks, no
7:17shot he jumps McGomery. Katon Mitchell, no shot he jumps Amari Hampton. Well, I think it's unlikely Jonathan Brooks jumps to Bahub to be the straightup
7:26starting running back for the Carolina Panthers. It's definitely a hell of a lot more likely than Woody Marks. So, we're going to go ahead and we are going
7:32to put him here at our seven mark. Now, moving to our sixth running back, I want to talk Blake Cororum. Now, I had Blake
7:39Cororm on our do not draft list early in the offseason. I feel like his price has declined just a bit though. And
7:47honestly, I'm starting to see the vision a little. I want to keep the baseline expectation for Blake Cororm that he is
7:54a handcuffed running back. With almost all the running backs we've talked about today, maybe in a baseball draft, you randomly get a usable week if he scores
8:02a touchdown. But in your ESPN league, in your Yahoo League, how are you going to know when to put him in your starting
8:09lineup if Kairen Williams is healthy?
8:11Because if we can go through and look at his game log and games in which Kairen Williams has played at the very most he
8:19peaked out at 46% of the snaps this past season, he has never played 50% of the snaps in any game in his NFL career.
8:28Right? So even though he expanded his role as time went on, even though at the end of this past season, we saw the
8:35rushing touchdown upside for Blake Cororum, he is still just a premium handcuff back that if we were to see a Kairen Williams injury, then all of a
8:44sudden that's when you can start him.
8:46Now, I will talk about the absolute upside case. If Kiran were to go down, Blake Corm probably has a higher ceiling
8:52than any other running back that we've talked about on this list so far because the Rams have a phenomenal offensive line. They have a great coaching staff,
9:00great quarterback play, and we've seen Blake Cororm be a very efficient running back at the NFL level. This past season, he just had 5.1 yards per carry and a
9:0925% juke rate with goal line usage. So, that's incredible. The only drawback I would have is no receiving role whatsoever. And I would say you can
9:20never start this dude with a healthy Kairen Williams. So, you have to understand that you are drafting a premium handcuff. Now, let's go to the
9:27range of running backs that could potentially win their backfield.
9:32Kyle Manungai could potentially win the backfield for the Chicago Bears. Looking at his price currently, there is a decent little range on the consensus ADP
9:42sheet. Like in Yahoo drafts, he's going at pick 88. In sleeper drafts, he's going at 90. And in ESPN drafts, he's
9:50going at pick 99. Right? So you are looking at this dude being an eighth ninth round pick almost regardless. And with Kyle Manungai we saw an incredible
9:59ceiling in the game in which DeAndre Swift missed this past year against the Cincinnati Bengals. And that was Kyle Manungai had 26 carries. He had five
10:07targets and he was everything for the Chicago Bears offense. Now if we're looking at the seasonl long numbers for him, they really aren't anything that
10:16special. Like obviously DeAndre Swift is a much better receiving back between the two of them. Kyle Manungai was a pretty efficient rusher where he had 4.6 yards
10:24per attempt. If we're looking at his prospect profile though, this wasn't a great prospect coming into the NFL, right? It would be very different if he
10:32was Trevian Henderson. Obviously, we're rocking the Henderson jersey. We'll talk about him later on where we can go back and look at Henderson at Ohio State and
10:39go, "Hey, this guy had all the pedigree in the world. This got a ton of juice coming into the NFL. We saw the flashes.
10:45Let's buy into it." here. We definitely saw the flashes at the NFL level, but because he didn't have the team investment with super high draft
10:52capital, because it's not like he had a lot of pedigree coming in, I I would be hesitant to assume that he beats out
10:58DeAndre Swift, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. And obviously, this is a phenomenal offense to be the starting running back here. We
11:05already saw Kyle Manungai would be a mustart option if he could beat him out.
11:09Now, RJ Harvey, I think, could actually just be the straightup starter and be the favorite to be the starter in Denver. I know this is a very hot take
11:18here because if we go through and if we look at just the consensus across the board right now, how most people view
11:25things, most people view JK Dobbins as the starting running back for the Denver Broncos. RJ Harvey being a compliment to JK Dobbins, especially as a receiver. In
11:34my opinion, RJ Harvey is a better receiving back than Dobbins. And then you also have Jonah Coleman that could potentially step in for Dobbins as the
11:41starting back. But nobody's giving that chance to RJ Harvey. And if we look at RJ Harvey last season, the efficiency was really bad. This is what people
11:50hate. One, he looked really bad on the field with film. All the film guys absolutely hate RJ Harvey. Two, the 3.7
11:57yards per carry, obviously not ideal.
12:00The 6.1 yards per target, though, I actually like a ton. And I wouldn't be that surprised if we see R.J. Harvey
12:08lock down the receiving role in this Denver Broncos backfield. And keeping in mind that the Denver Broncos arguably have the best offensive line in the NFL.
12:17Even if Dobbins splits this backfield 50/50, even if Jonah Coleman comes in and spells Dobbins, I wouldn't be surprised if R.J. Harvey is startable
12:25without a Dobbins injury. And we've never seen Dobbins make it through an entire season healthy. So R.J. Harvey in my mind has a higher floor than these
12:34guys like Kyle Manungai, Blake Cororm, Jonathan Brooks. Like I could very easily see him being startable even with the healthy JK Dobbins. I would only
12:42question the ceiling because say we were to get a Kairen Williams injury then at that point Blake Corm's everything in Los Angeles. Now if we were to get an
12:50injury instead to JK Dobbins, RJ Arvey is still probably in a backfield by committee with Jonah Coleman. Now Bashel Toutton's going to be our next running
12:59back. Shout out Mr. Danny Lad for spending 100% of your fab on him in the flock league. Can't wait to see you at
13:05Denny's, buddy. But anyway, looking at Bashel Tutin, very tight range of where he's being drafted on flockfantasy.com, Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog. He is
13:17anywhere from pick 56 in underdog drafts down to pick 61 in CBS drafts. So this is on any draft platform you're on a
13:28late fifth and early sixth round pick.
13:31Now film guys don't like Bashaltton. At least from what I've heard, they've really questioned his ability to break tackles in play through contact. I've
13:42almost heard that if he gets touched, he's going down almost immediately. Now, with that in mind, if we go back and
13:48look at his prospect profile coming into the NFL, while this wasn't a running back that had a ton of draft pedigree,
13:55using the FSE prospect database on flock fantasy.com, we can see that Tuton and Cam Scatteraboo since the year 2016 were the two highest graded running backs
14:05that went in round four of the NFL draft. So, even though he fell late in the NFL draft, he still had very
14:12compelling things about his prospect profile. He was an elite level athlete at the NFL combine. And I do want to point out here, if we're looking at what
14:21he was able to do in year one, well, it wasn't spectacular. At least he got on the field, right? I mean, he did have 83
14:29carries. He had 14 targets, which to me demonstrates that the team trusted him to some extent to be willing to trade
14:36away Tank Bsby and to have Tutin as the second complimentary running back to Travis ETN. And now that you no longer
14:43have ETN, the backfield's going to be Tootin and Chris Rodriguez. You go back and you look at Chris Rodriguez's entire NFL career. He's an uninspiring prospect
14:52and he's had zero receiving chops through his entire career. So, I would view Ton at the very minimum as the running back that's going to be catching
15:01the balls in Jacksonville. And also he has the upside case to be the starter as an elite level athlete and a Liam Cohen
15:08offense that we've seen make Bucky Irving a league winner that we've seen make Travis Tian a league winner. So the situation is perfect. The depth chart is
15:17nothing to be afraid of at all. If I were trying to figure out where Toutton fits onto my roster, I would take him on
15:25a team in which maybe I'm loaded with wide receivers early and I need to swing for the fences on a running back to go
15:32into my RB2 slot because I think there's an extremely wide range here where if you told me Tuton was a top 10 running
15:38back in fantasy this year, I wouldn't be surprised at all. And honestly, if you told me he was unstartable and Chris
15:44Rodriguez was the guy getting the majority of the work, that also wouldn't surprise me that much either.
15:50Now, going over to two running backs that are priced as if they're almost guaranteed to break out. Also, round five picks, just more expensive than
15:58Tuton. Let's talk about Quinshan Judkins first. Now, Judkins on some draft platforms is a round four pick. Right?
16:05CBS, he has an ADP of 43. ESPN, he has an ADP of 46. On other draft platforms, he's going in the fifth round. Like
16:14Yahoo, he is going at pick 57. Now, I'm going to make sure that I record a video talking through the best offensive lines
16:21in the NFL and the worst offensive lines in the NFL. So, if you haven't already, please just make sure you subscribe.
16:27That will come out shortly. But from all the resources I'm seeing at the moment, Quinn Judkins and the Cleveland Browns offensive line, um it it doesn't look
16:36like it's going to be a great scenario.
16:38The Browns look like they are possibly going to have the worst offensive line in the league this season. Obviously, even a casual like myself, I understand
16:45the Browns lost a ton of offensive linemen in free agency. Now, yes, they've gone through and they've replaced those offensive linemen in the
16:52NFL draft. And maybe that's going to be really good for Quinn Sean Judkins in the long term as this offensive line
16:58meshes and in 2027 and beyond when they are NFL ready. But the concern is in the short term here, if you're Quinn Sean
17:06Judkins and you're running behind the league's worst offensive line and we go back and look at your starting role last year and what it led to and you only had
17:1412 receiving yards per game with 2.6 targets per contest, I would be concerned. I think he's an incredibly talented running back. There's a reason
17:23expert Nathan Schmidt took this dude in the fifth round when he was still in jail. But the situation may be too hard
17:29to overcome for a running back that's not going to catch the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's just fine
17:34for fifth round pick this year. Um like he's gonna give you a floor for sure, but in a full PPR format, I would be
17:42surprised if he was a top five running back. Now, a running back that I have drafted a lot of, and honestly, I may be
17:49swinging for the fences in the Flock League this year. In my own league, it's $100,000 to first place, and I may need
17:55to do something drastic. And Trevian Henderson may be that drastic swing.
18:00Here's the deal. Trevian Henderson right now has a wide range of where he's being drafted. In sleeper drafts, it's the end
18:08of the fourth round. In Yahoo drafts, it's the end of the fifth round. But essentially, if it was me, I would be
18:14ranking him as an early fifth round pick for the time being. And let's think about the other running backs that are
18:19going in that range. Two guys we just talked about. Quinn Sean Judkins, who's running behind the worst offensive line in the league, and the Cleveland Browns
18:27offense. I don't really know what the ceiling is there from a running back perspective, especially for one that's not going to catch the ball. And then
18:34also Bachel Tutin, a round four NFL draft pick that had what, like 300 rushing yards in his rookie season. So, if I get to take Trevian Henderson in
18:43the same round as those guys, a rookie running back that had 900 rushing yards in year one, that had over 220 receiving
18:53yards, that is playing for the New England Patriots, that have now a vertical element with AG Brown potentially making the stack boxes a
19:02little bit easier for Trevian Henderson this next season. That is a scenario in which I'm willing to swing for the fences. That is a scenario in which I
19:12see the upside play here, especially for a running back that, keep in mind, in the flock league last year, he went at
19:18the 34 turn. Remember the hype that we had for rookie season Trevian Henderson before we knew how good Drake May was,
19:25before we knew how good this offense was because he was that special of a prospect and he had those massive plays
19:31in the preseason. And then what did we see early in his NFL career? Um, early in his rookie season, we saw him as a
19:39running back that wasn't startable.
19:40Raadre Stevenson was the clear starter for New England. Then what happened later on? Oh, Raadre Stevenson got hurt and we saw this ceiling of what if the
19:51New England Patriots transitioned from Stevenson to Trevon Henderson. If you look at the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com, you throw in Trevon
20:01Henderson and you put with and without Remadre. He played three games without Armadre Stevenson this past year. And in those three games, he averaged 15 and a
20:11half rush attempts per contest. He averaged four targets per game, so about 20 opportunities a game. And he averaged 24 points per game. He averaged almost
20:22six yards per carry. He averaged almost two touchdowns per game as well. He jumped up to being a top five running
20:30back in games you had no Madre. Now, I'm not an idiot. I'm not going to go rank him as a round one fantasy pick because
20:38the splits without Remadre Stevenson from his rookie season cuz we can go and we can see what happened in the NFL
20:44playoffs when things mattered the literal most for the New England Patriots. And what happened then was New England decided to lean on her Madre
20:52Stevenson or Madre Stevenson was the clear starting running back for New England. But for a fifth round cost, I'm willing to take the swing because I
21:00think the worst case scenario, we get a running back by committee. He's somebody we throw in our flex. He's a headache.
21:07But best case scenario is he's a top five running back in fantasy because I think he's been a great talent all
21:13along. He's had three games already in his NFL career with 28 or more fantasy points. Raandre Stevenson has already
21:22played five seasons and he's only had one. So, I think Trevian's the better, more dynamic back. Hopefully, he's improved this off season and this
21:32coaching staff can trust him to be the feature because I'm all in on Trevian Henderson. I think it's a swing for the
21:38fences. I may strike out, but at least we have a shot of actually getting first place and not getting the limited in
21:45week 16 how I always do. But, I think that's all I got for you. I really appreciate you. Again, if you want to
21:50win your fantasy football league, it's 34 bucks. The season pass gets you draft sheets for your exact league format, draft assistance for your sleeper, ESPN,
22:00Yahoo leagues, and you get weekly rankings, rest of season rankings updated from all your favorite creators you watch on YouTube already. It's 34
22:07bucks on flockfantasy.com. And when you use code flock when you sign up, you're also going to get free questions that you can ask me in the live streams that
22:14I'm going to be doing every night during the year. But I really appreciate you and I really hope we get to see you out
22:19in the live stream later
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