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The 9 Receivers I’m Betting Everything On

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 28, 2026
Published
Fri, August 28, 2026
13
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Carnell TateChristian WatsonDrake LondonGeorge PickensJameson WilliamsJordan AddisonJordyn TysonJustin JeffersonKenneth Walker IIIKyle PittsTee HigginsTetairoa McMillanXavier Legette
Player analysis

Player insights

13

Carnell Tate

PositiveValue12:15

Carnell Tate is an elite rookie prospect and former top-five NFL draft pick currently available at a massive discount in the sixth round. Despite concerns regarding the Titans' offense, the team is projected to be the second-most improved unit in the league, and the coaching staff has a history of high-volume passing. This represents the cheapest this rookie profile has been in years, making him a no-brainer pick as a WR3 or WR4.

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Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout10:08

Christian Watson is a prime target in round six, coming off a career-best season where he finished as the WR19 in points per game with 2.64 yards per route run. His outlook is bolstered by being further removed from his ACL injury, reduced target competition following the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, and the potential for a more pass-heavy Packers offense if Josh Jacobs is suspended.

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Drake London

NegativeProjection5:41

Drake London serves as the primary NFL comparison for Xavier Legette, noted for his high target share in a poor offense, which resulted in a WR43 finish in his rookie season despite his talent.

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George Pickens

NegativeValue4:30

George Pickens is compared to Tee Higgins as having an identical profile: a WR2 in an incredibly concentrated offense that could lead the league in passing stats if the quarterback stays healthy. Pickens is currently being drafted where Higgins was last season, leading to a preference for taking the discount on Higgins instead.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveBreakout7:04

Jameson Williams is a target in the fifth round, having shown significant growth after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. From weeks 6-18, he performed as the WR15, moving up from WR61 in the first five weeks. His age-24 season profile aligns with historical breakouts like Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, and Terry McLaurin, and he possesses massive upside should Amon-Ra St. Brown miss time.

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Jordan Addison

NegativeProjection14:10

Jordan Addison is significantly undervalued at his current ADP of WR42. His fantasy production is heavily skewed by quarterback play; he averaged 13.7 points per game (WR25) in games without J.J. McCarthy, compared to WR66 production in games with him. While McCarthy is viewed as a significant downgrade, Addison's potential remains high if he can avoid the specific quarterback volatility that hampered his production last season.

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Jordyn Tyson

PositiveSleeper15:36

Jordan Tyson is a high-upside stash candidate who could return by week five. He is an incredible pickup if drafted for free in late rounds (12th+) to be placed in an IR slot, but he is undraftable if an IR slot is unavailable as he would limit waiver wire flexibility.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveValue0:07

Justin Jefferson is a major fantasy value currently being drafted at a discount; he is a top-five talent in his prime at 27 years old. His poor 2025 performance was tied to poor quarterback play, specifically JJ McCarthy, under whom he averaged only 11 points per game (WR35). In the 68 games without McCarthy over the last five years, he averaged over 19 points per game (WR4). With Kyler Murray now in Minnesota, Jefferson is expected to return to his historical production levels and is considered a smash play regardless of quarterback play.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeValue17:58

Kenneth Walker is referenced as a financial benchmark for running back contracts, having received $28 million in guaranteed money.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveValue16:56

Kyle Pitts is an incredible value in rounds 9-11. He finished last season as the TE5 in points per game (12.4) and is being drafted as a low-end TE1. His $36 million guaranteed contract indicates the Falcons have clear plans for him, and at 25 years old, he retains significant room for improvement.

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Tee Higgins

PositiveValue4:49

Tee Higgins is a value pick at his current ADP of late third to early fourth round. His fantasy production is highly dependent on Joe Burrow's health; in games without Burrow over the last three years, he averaged 11.5 points per game (WR28), but with Burrow, he averaged 15.5 points per game (WR13). He shares a similar profile to George Pickens as a WR2 in a concentrated offense with high passing upside, but Higgins is preferred at his current price point.

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Tetairoa McMillan

PositiveBreakout8:23

Tetairoa McMillan is a high-upside prospect despite concerns regarding the Carolina Panthers' offense. According to the FSE prospect model, he is an elite prospect, with only Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb grading higher since 2016.

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Xavier Legette

PositiveBreakout5:03

Xavier Legette is a high-upside prospect with an FSE grade surpassed only by Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb. He is compared to Drake London due to his target-earning ability in a struggling offense, making him a value pick in the fourth round.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

154
0:00Here are my 10 favorite wide receiver values in fantasy football. Whether you're drafting these guys today or maybe even trading for them after your
0:07draft like I did in the Flock League with Justin Jefferson. And now Jefferson is going to be the most expensive wide
0:13receiver that we are talking about today. But Jefferson himself is currently going at a value in fantasy drafts. And I think it's very clear.
0:21Now, if we go through and look at the historical cost for Justin Jefferson, after through the first two years of his
0:26NFL career, he cemented himself as about the wide receiver six in points per game in the first two seasons he ever played.
0:34What happened was people realized, oh, this guy's the best wide receiver in the league. And his fantasy price exploded, rightfully as it should. In 2022, he had
0:46an ADP of the wide receiver, two offboards. In 2023, he was going as the wide receiver one in fantasy drafts. In
0:542024, he was being drafted as the wide receiver five. And in 2025, he was being drafted as the wide receiver three. Now,
1:02if we look at every single one of these seasons, there was a solid 5-year stretch where Justin Jefferson was a top
1:10five wide receiver in fantasy consistently. And 2025, the bottom fell out. He was the worst round one pick that you could have possibly had for
1:20somebody who did not get injured. And it's such a clear explanation. And the problem is gone entirely because we can go through and we can look at Justin
1:30Jefferson's career using the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com and see throughout the past five seasons he has played with so many different
1:39quarterbacks. Whether that was Carson Wentz, whether that was Max Bromer, whether that was Joshua Dobs, whether that was Sam Darnold, whether that was
1:48Kurt Cousins, we have seen him with so many different quarterbacks be productive. But if we go through and look at him with JJ McCarthy in
1:58particular, this one individual name in that 2021 to 2025 stretch, Justin Jefferson was the wide receiver 35 in
2:08points per game, averaging 11 points per contest. However, in the 68 games during that five-year sample in which Justin Jefferson did not have to deal with JJ
2:18McCarthy, he was the wide receiver four, averaging over 19 fantasy points per contest. Now that you have Kyler Murray coming over to Minnesota, I'm going to
2:27be honest, I don't think Kyler is the best quarterback in the league by any stretch of the imagination. I think Kyler is an average to slightly below
2:35average NFL QB, but he's not the worst quarterback in the league the way that we had with McCarthy this past year. So,
2:42Jefferson historically should be getting drafted as a top three wide receiver in fantasy every single season. He's in his prime at 27 years old. Yet, you get a
2:51massive discount for him like how I went through and I traded Kenneth Walker and some fab dollars to get Justin Jefferson
2:58in the Flock League. Now, let's move over to our next wide receiver with T.
3:02Higgins, who is an absolute roller coaster year after year after year. Over the past three seasons, we have seen T.
3:10Higgins finish as the wide receiver 40 in points per game, finish as the wide receiver six, then finish as the wide
3:17receiver 16. Right? So, we have seen Higgins be an elite wide receiver in fantasy. We have seen T. Higgins be a
3:24garbage wide receiver in fantasy, and then also something in between. Right now, he's getting drafted in that in between range, right? Tiggins is going
3:32off the board at the end of the third round, the beginning of the fourth. And with Higgins, it is such a clear
3:38explanation of why we have seen the horrendous games from him in the past.
3:43Very, very similar to the explanation that we have with Justin Jefferson. The games in which T. Higgins has been garbage over the past three years. is
3:51looking at the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons have very clearly been in the starts in which you have not had Joe
3:59Burrow. He has played 14 games with no Burrow during that stretch. And in that stretch, he finished the wide receiver 28 in points per game according to
4:07flockfantasy.com.
4:08Whereas in the games he's played with Joe Burrow, he has finished with 15 and a half fantasy points per game as the
4:15wide receiver 13. This is what led to T.
4:18Higgins last season instead of going at the end of the third, the beginning of the fourth, he was getting drafted at
4:24the end of the second and the beginning of the third. His profile is almost identical to what we have with George
4:30Pickkins where yes, he's the wide receiver too in his offense, but it is an incredibly concentrated offense where if the quarterback stays healthy and the
4:40offense just meets slightly exceeds expectations, it could be the number one offense in the league with passing yards and passing touchdowns. So for me, if I
4:49had to compare T. Higgins and George Pickins, I think they're the almost the identical profile. I mean, Pickkins is going exactly where Higgins did in
4:58fantasy drafts last season, and I would rather just take the discount on Higgins if you can get him at the beginning of
5:03the fourth round. Now, moving over to Tedora McMillan. I absolutely love McMillan myself this year. I know a ton of people are very concerned just given
5:12the Carolina Panthers offense, but I want to go through and I want to pull up the FSE grade on the flockfantasy.com
5:19FSE prospect model and see how many players graded out to be a better prospect of Tedo of McMillan since the year like 2016. The only guys that had a
5:31better FSE grade were Malik Neighbors, Marvin Harrison, Jamar Chase, and CD Lamb. That is the level of a prospect
5:41that McMillan is. And what's hilarious is the best NFL comp that we have for Tedoro McMillan is actually Drake London. Similar size profiles. Both go
5:51inside the top 10 picks of the NFL draft. Both go to garbage offenses, but both wide receivers see every single target in their offense. And what
6:01happened with Drake London in his rookie season? Drake London in his rookie year came out and demonstrated that he was a
6:08top-end target earner, right? He had the vast majority of the volume for this Atlanta Falcons offense. And it really didn't lead to much fantasy production,
6:17right? In year one, he had 29% of the Atlanta Falcons targets, but he finished as the wide receiver 43 in fantasy
6:25points per game because the Falcons were garbage. Tedo McMillan very similarly in year one had over 25% of the targets for
6:33the Carolina Panthers and finished as the wide receiver 24. So he actually had a better rookie year than London. But if
6:40I combine the prospect profile that we had from McMillan, top 10 NFL draft pick, absolute black hole on the field when it comes to earning targets.
6:50Everything goes his way and he's in a crappy offense. Same division. I think what you were doing by drafting Milan in
6:56the fourth is effectively getting Drake London just two rounds cheaper. Moving over to some other guys that I drafted in the Flock League. Um Jameson Williams
7:05I think is an incredible round five pick. Now with J Mo, um I know some platforms you're able to get him a
7:12little bit later. I'll look at the Consensus ADP page on flockfantasy.com just to see his updated cost. And obviously I want y'all to know any
7:20graphics you ever see in these videos, any tools we're ever using, they are all on flockfantasy.com. The developers on the site over the past few years have
7:29built out so many different tools that are going to be able to help you through your football season. Whether that's the
7:34my team's power rankings, whether that is going to be the trade calculator, the draft sheets, the draft assistance, make sure you get the season pass, which is
7:42only $34 on flockfantasy.com to make sure you win your fantasy league this year. And when you sign up with code flock, you're also going to get free
7:51starts at trade questions you can ask me during the season in my streams. And I'm going to be live streaming every single
7:56day until Christmas. But anyway, Jameson Williams in Sleeper Drafts goes at the end of the 5th. Yahoo ESPN. I guess he's
8:03actually an early fifth round pick, so a little bit more expensive there. But over the past two seasons, Jameson Williams has become a much more
8:11consistent player because obviously we have had a wild ride through his NFL career so far where in his rookie season, he does absolutely nothing. He's
8:19coming back from a torn ACL. In year two, he gets suspended. He finishes as the wide receiver 66 in points per game.
8:25However, in 2024, he was the wide receiver 26. This past season he was the wide receiver 21, he is still incredibly
8:33young at 25 years old. And while I understand that he did get a bump up with the Sam Laaporta injury this past
8:40season, a lot of it actually coincided at the same time with the Detroit Lions changing who was going through and calling plays. About halfway through the
8:50season, Dan Campbell took over as the Detroit Lions play caller. And the second that happened, you actually saw Jameson Williams break out to be
8:59somebody that you were starting every single week. Like if we use the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com, I want to look through and see what the
9:07first five weeks for Jameson Williams was in comparison to the rest of the season. because in the first five weeks he looked like he was going to be one of
9:15the worst picks in fantasy football before we saw the change with the play calling and before we really saw J Mo
9:23absolutely go nuclear. But in those first five weeks, Jameson Williams was the wide receiver 61 in points per game.
9:30However, weeks 6 through 18, he broke out to be the wide receiver 15. If we're looking at the site and looking at his
9:38best available comparisons dating back to the year like 2008 for similar age 24 wide receiver seasons, we have guys like Amari Cooper, Brandon Cooks, Terry
9:49McLaren, and we haven't even seen what JMO would look like if you were to get somehow someway an injury to Aman Ross
9:57St. Brown. So, I decided to draft Jameson Williams in round five of the Flock League. This was a player that I
10:02was targeting all along. I'm excited that I did it. And then who we decided to draft at round six of the Flock
10:08League, Christian Watson. Now with Christian Watson, I think he was set up to crush regardless, right? This is a receiver that was not getting drafted at
10:16all, no matter what the format was in fantasy drafts last offseason, even in those super deep basketball drafts because he tore his ACL at the very end
10:27of 2024. Like he tore his ACL in week 18. So, you go through and you look at what a normal nine-month timetable would
10:34be for that ACL tear. We typically shouldn't have expected Christian Watson to come back at all last season. And what ended up happening? Oh, he came
10:44back in week eight and he put out the best season of his entire NFL career. He was the wide receiver 19 in fantasy
10:52points per game. I mean, he was up there at 2.64 yards per route run, which was the most he seen in his entire career.
11:00and 19.9% of the Green Bay Packers targets went in his direction. Now, the other thing that is boosting Christian Watson right this
11:09second is one, not only is he another year removed from that torn ACL, but two, you have less target competition with the departure of Romeo Dobs and
11:18Dontavon Wigs from this offense. And three, Josh Jacobs looks like he is getting suspended. And if Jacobs is suspended, what's probably going to
11:26happen here? Yes, Marshon Lloyd becomes viable, but more importantly, the Green Bay Packers are going to have to throw the ball more. We see this Green Bay
11:35Packers coaching staff really scheme their game plan depended on the personnel that they have on the field.
11:41We can go back and look at how dramatic they changed their game plan last season with the Jordan Love injury. And when
11:48Love went down and Malik Willis was the starter for the Packers, almost every single play call that they had, it was a
11:54rush attempt. So, I wouldn't be surprised at all if while they're missing their starting running back, we actually skew way more pass happy for
12:01the Packers, especially early in the season if this defense is bad. And I think Christian Watson could go freaking nuclear with this setup. So, again, I
12:09took him in round six. I was very excited to do so. Who I would have taken instead in round six if he would have
12:15been there though would have been Carnell Tate. Now, I completely understand. Yes, the Tennessee Titans looked garbage in the preseason. And
12:25this has people terrified about drafting any Tennessee Titan that they can have in drafts this year. And again, going back and looking at what we actually had
12:33with the Titans last season, they were horrendous. They were one of the worst offenses in the league. But you have a
12:38lot of things going for them right now.
12:40One, you have Brian Dable coming over, and this is the coaching staff that gave Malik Neighbors approximately 38 targets per game in his rookie season. And two,
12:49you have Cam Ward naturally progressing into the second season of his NFL career. So, in terms of sportsbook projections, the offenses that sports
12:58books project to get better year-over-year, one, the Las Vegas Raiders are supposed to be the most improved offense, but two, the second
13:07most improved offense will be the Tennessee Titans. The offenses they project to be better than this year include the Jets. Keep in mind, Garrett
13:15Wilson goes ahead of Cardinal Tate, the Arizona Cardinals, the Cleveland Browns, the Miami Dolphins, and the Las Vegas Raiders. So, while the Titans are going
13:24to be bad, don't get me wrong, it's not like they project to be the worst in the league, and they should be much better
13:29than they were a year ago. On top of this, we've seen this coaching staff again skew very passappy. And Carnell Tate was a phenomenal, he was an elite
13:38prospect getting drafted inside the top five picks of the NFL draft. And if we go through and look historically of what
13:44wide receivers cost when they are those top five NFL picks, yeah, a lot of them have let down. We can go back and look
13:51at Marvin Harrison going at the beginning of the second round of his rookie season. I mean, obviously Malik Neighbors was going at the end of the
13:58second round. I mean, but here instead, Carnell Tates all the way down in the sixth. So, this is the cheapest we've
14:04seen this rookie profile be in quite some time. And if you can get him as your wide receiver three, wide receiver
14:10four, it's a no-brainer. Now going over to Jordan Addison. The Addison take is very very similar if not identical to what we have with Mr. Justin Jefferson.
14:20Jordan Addison very similar to Justin Jefferson has played with so many different quarterbacks in his NFL career but none as bad as JJ McCarthy. Again JJ
14:30McCarthy was unbelievably bad last season. Like literally you can't put into words ex how extreme this situation was. But if we go through and look at
14:40Addison in his rookie, second, and third seasons, and look at the games with and without McCarthy, in the games without McCarthy, Jordan Addison was the wide
14:49receiver, 25 in points per game, averaging 13.7. In the games with JJ McCarthy, he was the wide receiver 66.
14:58So very similar to how I'm looking at those McCarthy games and saying they're meaningless for Justin Jefferson.
15:04Jefferson's going to smash regardless.
15:07I'm doing the same thing here with Jordan Addison. Like Addison, if we remove those games entirely and look at him finishing as the wide receiver 25,
15:14you would expect that maybe that's close to where he's getting drafted in drafts right now. However, according to the consensus ADP page on flockfantasy.com,
15:23this is taking into the cost of ESPN, Yahoo, baseball, CBS, FFPC, underdog drafts. Um Jordan Addison right now is nowhere close to the wide receiver five.
15:33Jordan Addison's the wide receiver 42.
15:36Unbelievable. I will give a shout to somebody else that I drafted in the Flock League. And I'll be honest, I took
15:41him before we knew he was going to be out for a couple months. So, no, you should not draft Jordan Tyson in the
15:46eighth round like I did. But where I am seeing the updated ADP for Jordan Tyson at the moment is Jordan Tyson has an ADP
15:53pick 152 in ESPN leagues and 129 in Yahoo Leagues, 142 in CBS. So, it looks
16:02like people are just assuming that he is worthless this year where the fact of the matter is, if you look at the
16:10timeline that the New Orleans Saints put out, Jordan Tyson could be back in week five. This is a top 10 NFL draft pick
16:17that of course has massive injury concerns. That's the reason why he was not the number one overall wide receiver drafted in this year's draft. If you're
16:25able to take him in like the 12th round of your ESPN league where all those other players are going to get cut
16:30anyway and you're able to stash him in your injured reserve slot and then activate him in week five for a cost
16:37that's literally nothing. It's only upside and no downside. So I think Jordan Tyson incredible pickup if you can get him for completely free.
16:45However, he is undraftable if you do not have an injured reserve slot. If you'd have to keep him on your bench, don't
16:51draft him at all because in that case, he would be limiting your waiverwire moves. Now, going over to one last pass
16:57catcher that I need to discuss, it is going to be Kyle Pittz. I I know we're sneaking him in a wide receiver video
17:02here, but I feel like he's pretty damn close to receiver. Here's the deal with Kyle Pittz that's hilarious to discuss.
17:08Kyle Pittz is 25 years old right now.
17:11Woody Marx is 25 years old. Again, Woody Marks going in to year two of his NFL career. Jakori Kroski Merritt. How old
17:20is he? Oh, JaKoRi Kroski Merritt is also 25 years old. So, Kyle Pittz is still the same age as a lot of these year 2
17:29players that were just rookies last season. And what did Kyle Pittz do in fantasy last year? Oh, he had 6.9 targets per game, 5.2 receptions, 54
17:40receiving yards, and he averaged 12.4 fantasy points. If you go through and look at the Kyle Pittz contract that the Atlanta Falcons gave him, now trust me,
17:49I completely get it. Positional value. I understand that running backs are devalued in the NFL, but Kyle Pittz at the moment is getting paid $36 million
17:58guaranteed. And if we cross reference this with another running back who just got paid in Kenneth Walker, Kenneth Walker got 28 million guaranteed. So, I
18:08read that and go, "Oh, okay. It looks like this Atlanta Falcons team has very clear plans for Pitts. Pitts averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game last year.
18:18He was the tight end five in points per game. However, in the flock league, I was able to take him in the ninth round
18:24next to some guys. I mean, I took him after a freaking kicker. Like I think Kyle Pittz as a lowend tight end one as
18:29long as you're getting him in rounds 9 10 11 incredible value. and I drafted him there and I think he can return
18:36value very easily just repeating what he did last season as the tight end five as a player that's still incredibly young.
18:42So, it's possible he continues to get better. But I think that's all I got for you. I really appreciate you and I hope
18:47I was able to help you out in some way with this. And of course, if you have not done so already, go get that
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19:05watch. Links in the description comment section. Code Flock will get you set up with free start sit and trade questions you can ask me. And I'm going to be
19:12streaming every single day until Christmas answering those questions. But much love, ladies and gentlemen. I really appreciate you and I get to see
19:19you out in the live stream later

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