7 Running Backs I'm Avoiding like the Plague

St. Brown is the analyst's preferred pick at pick 7 over Christian McCaffrey, appearing in 15% of his drafts as a player who checks every floor and ceiling box.

Despite offseason buzz about a 50/50 backfield split with Kyren Williams, Corum's actual track record shows he topped out at 29% of snaps even when his role expanded, has never averaged more than three receiving yards per game, and is being overpriced as a premium handcuff ahead of top tight ends.

Mentioned as being directly behind the top-10 priced running back in the depth chart.

Analyst would rather have Brock Bowers than Derrick Henry at second-round ADP, indicating superior value.

Recovery from injury is not showing the positive clips we would have wanted to see, unlike Quinshon Judkins.

Recovery from injury is not showing the positive clips we would have wanted to see, unlike Quinshon Judkins.

Analyst prefers Chase Brown over the top-10 priced RB because we've already seen his production and his situation may be getting better with a healthy Burrow.

Analyst prefers Chase Brown over Derrick Henry at second-round ADP, indicating better value proposition.

McCaffrey's receiving volume is expected to decline significantly as George Kittle returns healthy, Ricky Pearsall is healthy, and Mike Evans was added to the offense, reducing the pipeline that made him RB1 last year with 7.5 targets per game.

McCaffrey's rushing efficiency has declined to 3.9 yards per carry and his worst rushing success rate since his 2017 rookie season, raising concerns about age-related decline at 30 years old.

Historical data shows that elite running backs at age 30 (after an age 29 season like McCaffrey's) experience significant decline, with comparables like Jamaal Charles dropping from 20+ PPG to under 5, Kamara and David Johnson each losing 10 PPG.

Despite being drafted at pick 7, McCaffrey's price doesn't match his declining situation; the analyst is fading him in favor of Amon-Ra St. Brown and has McCaffrey in only 4% of his drafts versus St. Brown in 15%.

Analyst prefers De'Andre Swift as the safe veteran option a few picks later, with higher projected rushing yards (799) than Montgomery.

Swift is a preferred alternative to Quinshon Judkins in the same draft range due to a better offense and superior receiving profile.

Analyst is avoiding Montgomery because while he'll probably do fine, the ceiling is just fine and the price doesn't reflect that. He finished RB 33 in PPG last season but is being drafted as RB 21.

Fantasy points per game fell from 15.8 in 2025 to 9.8 in 2024, with efficiency metrics declining as well—juke rate dropped from 29% to 18%.

Finished RB 33 in points per game last season but is currently being drafted as RB 21, representing significant overvaluation.

Lands in Houston where the Texans offensive line has been one of the worst run blocking units in football for years, a significant downgrade from Detroit's premier unit.

Sportsbooks project Montgomery for 774 rushing yards, trailing De'Andre Swift (799) and Tony Pollard (800), while lacking their receiving upside.

Going directly ahead of Amari Hampton in the depth chart, limiting upside for other backs in the backfield.

Achane is ranked as RB9 and is described as a multi-running back one finisher, positioned ahead of Kenneth Walker in draft rankings.

Mentioned as being directly behind the top-10 priced running back in the depth chart.

Henry's RB8 finish last year was artificially inflated by one meaningless Week 17 game against backup quarterbacks; removing that game reveals only one other game above 22 fantasy points and nine games under 15, showing the decline actually happened.

Henry fails the analyst's three-part test: receiving yards per game at career lows (outside 2020), efficiency down from 5.9 to 5.2 yards per carry with juke rate at career low 18%, and at second-round price turning 33 in January, he must outperform all-time great 32-year-old RB seasons just to meet expectations.

Mentioned as being directly behind the top-10 priced running back in the depth chart.

Analyst prefers Drake London over Derrick Henry at second-round ADP, indicating better value proposition.

One of the best running backs in the league, and the Lions wanted to get him as much work as possible, which limited Montgomery's opportunities.

Brooks is a round-two draft pick coming off a torn ACL who tore it again as he prepared for work, with only nine career NFL touches and continued camp limitations; at this price, you're paying draft capital for a profile that's 100% projection and 0% evidence.

Miller is presented as an alternative to Judkins in the next round—a running back without a receiving profile but in a much better offense.

Walker's Super Bowl MVP status masks a disappointing 2024 season where he finished as RB29 in PPG with career-low 13 carries per game, 2.1 targets, and under 50% snap share.

While Walker gains a larger role in Kansas City with Zach Charbonnet gone, he's moving to a worse offense (24.2 PPG projected) than Seattle's 28+ PPG last year when he finished as RB3, making his RB10 ADP overpriced.

Recovery from injury is not showing the positive clips we would have wanted to see, unlike Quinshon Judkins.

Golden is presented as a preferred alternative to Jonathan Brooks in the same draft range.

Analyst is fading Judkins, though holding the fade loosely because there is real talent and his recovery from ankle injury looks great at camp.

Extremely talented running back with age-22 comps including Todd Gurley, who went from 12.5 PPG to 25.5 PPG the following season.

Judkins lacks a receiving profile (12 receiving yards per game, 2.6 targets per game, 1.9 receptions) and plays for the Cleveland Browns, who project to score the fewest points in the league, making him a running back who doesn't catch passes in a bad offense.

Age-22 comp for Quinshon Judkins showing potential for massive PPG increase from 12.5 to 25.5 when offense improved from worst to best.

Analyst prefers Henderson over Montgomery in this range due to being in a better offense with receiving capability and big play upside.