0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and today we're going to talk through the nine players I'm betting my entire fantasy football
0:07season on. And when I say that, I mean it. It's one thing to say, "Here are the nine players I love." or my flag plants
0:13or my favorite pick in every round, but it's another to actually put my money where my mouth is because on this
0:20channel, we draft real money fantasy football drafts every single night, some of which are high-stakes redraft manage leagues where we buy in for thousands,
0:29if not hundreds of dollars in these leagues. We have done 12 so far, and the players that we're going to talk about
0:34in this video, I have drafted on three or more of them this summer, meaning I have exposure to these players at a 25%
0:42or higher rate. The average exposure to a given player is 1 / 12, 8.3%.
0:48Essentially, these are guys that we are tripling down on, and if they do well or they do poorly, it is going to affect me
0:55directly as I am living and dying with these teams every single week of the season. So, with that being said, we're
1:01going to talk about the nine players that we are staking our entire fantasy season on. And if you enjoy, leave a
1:06like, subscribe if you're new, and make sure you check out those streams. We stream every single night from August 1st through week one kickoff. So, with
1:13that being said, our first player we are betting our entire fantasy football season on, Saquon Barkley, who I actually flashed first
1:22our video from 2024. And this is a interesting full circle moment. Saquon goes from a huge fade of mine in 2024,
1:29he then windmill slams dunks on us the entire 2024 season becoming the guy you needed to have in fantasy football, and
1:36he puts egg on my face. Now, it's full circle. It is 2026. He is my 112 as my RB6. We are one spot higher than
1:44consensus, but again, this isn't about me being higher than consensus. This is the This is about me stepping up to the
1:50plate when the money is on the line and clicking the draft button on these players. And Saquon Barkley has been one
1:56of the easiest clicks for me this year.
1:59Now, of course, if you want access to my rankings, you can get that over on the basement draft guide.com in the
2:04description and in the comment section down below. You get my ranking, you can compare them to consensus ADP yourself.
2:09You can look at my target rounds, my targets, my fades, my sleepers, the flex check tool. You can compare my rankings
2:15to whatever site you're drafting on. You can sync it to your sleeper draft live.
2:18All of that and more, plus my player notes, all in the basement draft guide.
2:24And here's what it comes down to with Saquon. I actually recently moved him up ahead of Chase Brown, ahead of Kenneth
2:31Walker despite the legendary running back upside research we did.
2:35Even though, let's actually jump around a bit here. That research I did, the legendary running back video, I think we kind of
2:43underrated how well Saquon scored in that research. When we look at the projected points per game, he's at 16.5, only 0.1 lower than James Cook, who is a
2:53firm first-round pick. James Cook at 20.5 ceiling point per game projection is within 0.4 of Saquon Barkley, even though Saquon goes in the second round
3:01compared to James Cook going firmly in the middle of the first round. And I love James Cook myself, but I think
3:06Saquon Barkley's actually probably closer to James Cook than he is the second-round running backs as a really strong pick in this range. I think 2024
3:14me would have poked holes here, right?
3:17This is a player next to Jalen Hurts who is going to get his touchdown upside limited by Jalen Hurts. On top of that,
3:23this is a Jalen Hurts passing game that is not going to check down to the running back position because a lot of
3:27those check downs are scrambles in the event of having a scrambling quarterback like Jalen Hurts. But, when it comes to Saquon,
3:37you got to zoom out and keep it simple.
3:39This is what I've really learned over the past couple years, especially when it comes to fantasy football and running backs and upside, is that the core of
3:46your argument talent has to win out. Talent has to win out and then situation is also a big factor here. And with Saquon Barkley, we
3:58now have two separate seasons where he became a legendary scorer at the position in two distinctly different ways. As a rookie, he did it on the
4:05Giants with over 90 plus catches as a PPR monster. In 2024, he did it as a explosive playmaker in one of the
4:15league's best offenses where even in an offense where Jalen Hurts is vulturing him at the goal line, he said, "You know
4:21what? I'll just score from 40 yards out or 30 yards out or 20 yards out." And run for 2,000 rushing yards over a
4:2816-game sample. And when he has shown over his entire career that he can get to 20 plus points per game in different
4:35ways just because he is a talented running back. He came into the league as the best running back prospect my eyes
4:40have ever seen. He is still that player.
4:43I know he's 29 years old and we're all agist when it comes to running back and it's like these guys are going to fall
4:49off a cliff. And I just think that they don't apply to Saquon in the same ways that they do to other running backs. Similar
4:56deal with a Derrick Henry. These are guys who defy the age curves. And with Saquon, this is an offense that is going
5:02to get healthy this season from Deepak Chona saying that the offensive line likely explains Saquon Barkley's 2025 drop-off.
5:09In 2024, he led the league in yards before contact by over 200 yards. And then last year they had injuries to Cam
5:15Jurgens, Landon Dickerson, and Lane Johnson. But this year Establish the Run has them as the second best offensive line. They should be much better. On top
5:23of that, you also have a new play-caller in Shawn McVay who should make things very interesting. This is Saquon Barkley under center versus in shotgun. He goes
5:32from a 4.9 yards per carry and a 7% explosive run rate down to a 3.5 yards per carry and a 2.9% explosive run rate
5:40out of shotgun or pistol. Shawn McVay should bring in more under center concepts here. And that is very exciting. It should be a more
5:46modern-looking offense, and I also don't want to underrate the receiving upside here where small sample, small sample, but over a four-game sample without A.J.
5:57Brown, Saquon Barkley's targets per game on the Eagles has gone from 2.6 to 4.5 targets per game. 4.5 targets per game
6:05would make Saquon Barkley the legendary running back in this season. I'm not saying that I would project him for 4.5 targets per game, but anything above
6:13four is where you start to get to elite pass-catcher area in fantasy football.
6:19And Saquon Barkley came into the league as that type of player, and we could see now without A.J. Brown, Saquon step up
6:25to be more of the passing game. I also again want to zoom out here. This is an Eagles organization that is smart. They
6:30know Saquon Barkley is their star player. They lose A.J. Brown. Sure, they have DeVonta Smith, but I think at the heart of things, they know that they won
6:38a Super Bowl on the back of Saquon Barkley, and if they want to win another one, they should probably run their
6:43offense through Saquon. And that could look different. That could mean using him in the passing game. This is from Zane Dinati here saying that Saquon
6:50Barkley has been getting 80% of the running back work with the first team and is getting a lot of work in the
6:54passing game in the new offense. So, we could see healthy O line, Saquon Barkley bounces back after a 2024 where he had a crazy
7:02amount of touches, a down year. He could bounce back. This offensive line should get healthier. This offense should look better with a new play-caller. So, I
7:10think that when we're talking about a second-round running back in fantasy football, I think Saquon is an absolute slam dunk. Now, some other players I'm
7:19drafting a lot of are also in the same offense. We have Jalen Hurts and Quez Watkins.
7:24Now, you'll see, again, this is not a me versus consensus video, but I want to include the consensus ADP for some
7:30background context here. You have Jalen Hurts. He is my sixth 12 is my QB6. He goes 12 spots higher than that, but
7:37quarterbacks are are weird. Quarterbacks are a league-to-league market, right?
7:41Your league might draft Josh Allen 15th overall. Your league might not draft Josh Allen till the fourth round.
7:47So, it depends on your league, but if Jalen Hurts makes it to that 6-7 turn, I am drafting a lot of him. This is
7:53somebody that since he became a starter in 2021, he is behind only Josh Allen with 21.3 points per game. The top five
8:00is Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow.
8:04Since 2021, Jalen Hurts was the QB six in points per game last year in a down year. And you're now drafting him at
8:10that cost. And in this offense, he should bounce back with a better offensive line. And this scheme should suit him. We have a tweet from Ryan
8:17Heath here. Since 2021, he is a top two quarterback when it comes to efficiency under center. He is more league average
8:24out of shotgun.
8:26The reports have been that Sean Mannion is almost going to force him to play more under center. And then also target
8:31the middle of the field more. The middle of the field is where a lot of the high upside plays happen in fantasy football,
8:37but it's also where a lot of the interceptions happen in fantasy football. So, you see or really real life football. So, you see a lot of the
8:43times Jalen Hurts being conservative and really only targeting players outside the numbers and playing it safe. Sean Mannion has The reports are that he is going to get
8:54Jalen Hurts to throw over the middle of the field more. And yes, that has resulted in more interceptions in training camp. And it's a it's a
9:01conversation for another day that the Eagles fan base and media is so toxic that their quarterback can't test their limits in practice like that.
9:10It It's the Allen Iverson meme. We're talking about practice. This is when we should be throwing interceptions, seeing what we can get away with, seeing how we
9:17can be more aggressive. And then game day comes around and these same fans are fed up with Jalen Hurts checking it down
9:22and throwing outside the numbers. You can't have it both ways, but that's a rant for another day. With Ryan Heath, he had a really good uh quote in his
9:29play callers article that we brought him on this channel to talk through where he said a league low 13.7% of Hurts' pass
9:34attempts have gone to that area over the past five seasons. Talking about the middle of the field, but what might surprise you is that Hertz
9:41ranked second in both adjusted net yards per attempt and EPA per dropback when targeting the middle of the field. 10 if
9:46looking at 2025 alone. 11.01 adjusted net yards per attempt, the second best. Jalen Hurts when targeting the middle of the field is amazing. He
9:56just doesn't do it very often and the hope and the idea is that Mannion can coach that out of him, get him to attack
10:03the middle of the field more, get him to play under center more, and then this could be a really big year for the
10:08Eagles. And we haven't even talked about McKay Lemon, who I think also benefits from this because this is a player who
10:14played 76% of the time out of the slot in college. In my prospect model, his three best comparable players are JSN,
10:23Jerry Jeudy, Luther Burden. And for people who don't understand, Jerry Jeudy we now look at Jerry Jeudy and we're like, "Ew, Jerry Jeudy." Jerry Jeudy
10:29once upon a time was a damn good player.
10:32Uh and I will not accept slander when talking about prospect uh pedigree in comparing a player to Jerry Jeudy. He was drafted ahead of CeeDee Lamb and
10:40Justin Jefferson. Now, with McKay Lemon, he is a late season play. We talk about this with the rookie receiver report every week. McKay Lemon has been banged
10:48up with a hamstring injury missing a lot of practice, but he has gotten a lot of the short passes near the line of
10:54scrimmage. He's being used in motion pre-snap, and that is all awesome stuff. He is getting used as one of the chess pieces in this offense.
11:02Now, of course, he is behind Quez Watkins in the depth chart. He is more of a late season play, but he is the
11:07perfect when we are talking about filling out our wide receivers through the flex plus one or two, which I say a
11:11lot of the times in my strategy videos, McKay Lemon is the perfect first wide receiver off the bench when we're building that way because of what he can
11:19be down the stretch once he gets to a full-time role in this offense as a first-round pick with a strong prospect
11:25profile. We can see even guys who weren't amazing pros, like Elijah Moore, put up 20 points per game in his final
11:33five games. Juju, 17.9 points per game in his final six games as a rookie.
11:37Ayuk, 17.7. We even saw Jayden Reed with 16.2 points per game in his final nine games as a rookie. Rashee Rice as well.
11:45Mecole Hardman can be one of those players in 2026. Now, moving on from the Eagles, a player I continue to draft, and every
11:54time I draft him on stream, you guys crush me for it, is Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers is my wide receiver 14 as my
12:023.06. I'm six spots higher than consensus, two wide receiver spots higher than consensus. And all I hear about with Zay Flowers is he's good, but
12:10he can't score touchdowns. He's only played three seasons. Touchdowns are relatively random, sure. Is he at a disadvantage as a 5'9 receiver on an
12:18offense with Derrick Henry? Sure, but he was a top 12 point per game scorer at wide receiver last year despite Lamar
12:24Jackson having his third worst year in completion percentage, his third worst year in interception rate, his third worst year in success rate, and his
12:33first time under 200 passing yards per game since 2022. It was a down year for the entire offense. It was a down year
12:39for the entire passing offense. And Zay Flowers still produced as a back-end wide receiver one. And yes, it was a down year for wide receiver ones in
12:47general, but he still outperformed his ADP of like wide receiver 30. And after finishing as the wide receiver 12, you're drafting him as the wide receiver
12:5516. I think if this offense bounces back in a big way, that we're going to see Zay Flowers be the focal point. This is
13:01a team that just hired Todd Monken Doyle to be their new offensive coordinator.
13:06And we should see a lot more play action. Todd Monken Doyle comes from the Broncos and the Bears. When he was with
13:11them, he was top 10 in play action rate over those two year spans. You have Ryan Heath here showing that when Lamar
13:18Jackson ranks highly in play action dropback rate, his points per game as a fantasy producer go up. And then on the
13:24bottom here, Zay Flowers leads all qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run on play action over the past two seasons. It is a perfect marriage of
13:33skill sets where Doyle is going to run more play action, Lamar is going to benefit, and then Zay Flowers is also
13:38going to benefit. And the thing about Zay Flowers is he's just a damn good player that continues to get better.
13:43This is a list of last year's wide receivers to run 200 or more routes with a 20% or better targets per route run, a
13:4910-plus yards per target, and a 10% or better first downs per route run, meaning target earning, efficiency, and moving the chains. Zay Flowers is on
13:58this list as a really strong receiver last season. He played really well despite bad quarterback play. He went from 12.3 points per game to 14.3 points
14:09per game last season. His yards per route run has improved every single year of his career. Now, of course, the elephant in the room is the touchdowns.
14:17Just five touchdowns last year, but I think this coaching change opens things up for Zay Flowers to score touchdowns.
14:22You have Isaiah Likely leaving. You have Mark Andrews who has been heavily involved in the end zone target area, the red zone target area. And if Mark
14:30Andrews is washed, Zay Flowers will be somebody who scores touchdowns. And when we talk about Lamar Jackson, sure he's seen as a scrambling quarterback, but he
14:39now has two seasons of 36 passing touchdowns and 41 passing touchdowns.
14:45And if he can hit those levels again, which is always in his range of outcomes, it wouldn't be crazy to me for Zay
14:50Flowers to hit eight-plus receiving touchdowns, 10-plus receiving touchdowns on the back of a monster Lamar Jackson season. I don't get why the wide
14:58receiver one attached to Lamar, who has had nuclear passing seasons in the past, wouldn't be a coveted player in fantasy.
15:06Then we have Jameson Williams, who is my 409 as my wide receiver 23. I am nine spots ahead of consensus, and I think
15:11people fundamentally misunderstand who Jameson Williams is as a player. What I mean by that is they all see him as a
15:20field stretcher who just kind of run runs wind sprints, and you can see he hasn't been in that role since 2023,
15:26where his A dot, average depth of target, right? Where how far downfield he is getting targeted went from 16 yd to the last 2 years has
15:34been between 11 to 13 yd, meaning yes, he's still getting used vertically, but he's also getting used on horizontal routes, like crossers and digs and outs
15:42and screens, and he's getting used all over the formation, all over the field, because he is electric with the ball in
15:47his hands. And I also think there is an initiative on this team to get him involved. Dan Campbell last year, once
15:53he took over calling plays, Jameson Williams down the stretch of the season was at 16-plus points per game as a firm
15:59every week wide receiver one. Now, of course, this came with Sam LaPorta going down with injury. Sam LaPorta this year is already banged up with a hip injury
16:07coming off a back injury, and I think that Dan Campbell made it an initiative with or without Sam LaPorta. He brings
16:13in Drew Petzing to, I believe, revamp the running game, and I think that it's still going to be Dan Campbell's fingerprints that are all over this
16:20operation. We've seen, even with Ben Johnson leaving, Dan Campbell still wanting to do the trick play stuff, still wanting to essentially run the offense that he
16:29always did even with Ben Johnson. So, I think that he probably made it clear to Drew Petzing, we still want to use Jameson
16:36Williams in this way. Did Sam LaPorta limit his ceiling? Sure, but he goes from a 16-plus point per game scorer as
16:41a back-end wide receiver one to a 14-plus point per game scorer as a win at ADP with the upside to get to the
16:4916-plus we've already seen, especially heading into year five, where Jameson Williams goes into his peak season as a wide receiver. Year five is usually
16:57where wide receivers peak. This is a chart from Ryan Heath, and I do also want to say everybody goes crazy about the boom-bust
17:05nature of Jameson Williams. Last year, if you played him in your lineup down the stretch once Sam LaPorta went down, he was crushing constantly. We also get
17:13so caught up in consistency and boom-bust, and if you play any competitive league that is two wide receiver, two flex, and you draft
17:20Jameson Williams inside the top four rounds, you just start him every week.
17:23Everybody doesn't quite grasp how fantasy football works. If you go back into your league's history, and you were to take the average
17:31winning margin of every match-up, it would be blowouts across the board. It'd be like 20 plus points per game is how
17:37most fantasy football match-ups are decided. It's just that one Monday night where you lose by 0.6, and you think, "Man, if Jameson Williams didn't bust
17:45here, we would have won this game." That gives you this bias of wanting floor and consistency. And across the board, consistency metrics and ratings aren't
17:55sticky year to year. A player can be boom bust one year, and then they could have a high floor the next year.
18:00It's all magic, dust, fairy nonsense. Points per game is all that matters. Put the player in your lineup, and stop talking about
18:09ceiling and floor and boom bust and whether or not a guy can start or be in your lineup. Jameson Williams is in an
18:15awesome offense, and if he averages 13 plus points per game like he should, where you're drafting him, he's going to be a fine weekly start. And a lot of the
18:22boom bust stuff is very much overrated. Then we have TreVeyon Henderson.
18:30He is my 607.
18:32I'm actually six spots lower than consensus, but I keep drafting him because even consensus continues to lag behind where Henderson actually goes in
18:41real drafts. We have here from high stakes ADP. He used to be a guy that would go in that Skatabo to Two in Tier
18:47in the 40s to 50s area at the 4-5 turn.
18:50He is now firmly on the other side of the board as a sixth round pick in the tier of Jonathan Brooks, Rhamondre
18:57Stevenson, and Jaylen Warren.
18:59And this is correct. The market has corrected. The market is now efficient.
19:03There's been so much dunking on straw man arguments on Twitter of Rhamondre's the RB1. He's got to go ahead of Henderson, or Henderson doesn't doesn't
19:11deserve to be here. Well, now they go pretty much back-to-back in drafts across the board and this is how it should be, right? Rhamondre is more of
19:19the safe floor option. He's going to get the better consensus weekly rankings early on in the season and Henderson is more of the upside play with juice and
19:28pass-catching upside. And Henderson, I keep drafting because he's sliding into the sixth round into the late sixth round. I have my receivers through the
19:35flex. I went with the hero RB build and I want to shoot for upside with Henderson because I know I can just get
19:40floor plays later on. I can draft my JK Dobbins, Kenneth Gainwell, Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones later.
19:49Henderson is the league-winning upside style pick that I want to keep on taking. Now, I have a lot of these guys
19:56ahead of him. I have J'Darien Price ahead. I have Judkins, Tutu Atwell, Bucky Irving, Skyy Moore, even David Montgomery ahead of Henderson. He is
20:03just now going in a range where he falls to me. All of the receivers I like are gone and now it's time to take my RB2
20:09and I take him. But, there's also this misunderstanding that Henderson wasn't good last year. This is somebody that had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage last
20:17year and 10 touchdowns. He also had multiple crazy long runs. He looked explosive. He catches passes out of the backfield and he also is heading into
20:26year two where when we look at the age curves again from Ryan Heath, year one to year two is where rookie running
20:32backs or running backs in general make the biggest leap in their career. So, you can take all of Henderson's stats from last year, whether that's success
20:39rate or yards per out run or efficiency stat you want to look at, there is a very good chance he improves a lot of
20:46those heading into year two. There's a very good chance that he improves heading into year two. You have to have some kind of imagination when it comes
20:53to a year one heading into year two player. You cannot just copy and paste the previous year's stats. You have to
20:58think forward. You have to kind of hit where the target's going to be rather than say, "Here is what the Rhamondre-Henderson split was last year.
21:06It is going to be the exact same in 2026. Now, of course, the beat reports haven't been great.
21:12Rhamondre's been the guy in camp, but these are all week one things. We are trying to hit a moving target so that we
21:19have a stud RB2 heading into the fantasy football playoffs. And I think over an entire season, whether that means Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbling issues
21:27or his efficiency comes back down, as we know efficiency bounces up and down year to year, we could then see Henderson
21:34take over this backfield as somebody who was a talented prospect coming out, flashed a lot of upside last year, had 17-plus points per game from weeks nine
21:42through 17 last year, and could be a real difference-maker for a hero RB style setup. This is also somebody on the Mike Clay projections. Mike Clay is
21:51known as a very conservative uh projector. He is somebody that can't wrap his head around the Luther Burden breakout, and I want that for my
22:01projector. I want the guy doing the projections to be conservative and be anti-fun young players. And even as an anti-fun young player guy, he has
22:11Rhamondre RB24, and he has Henderson at RB25.
22:16You can take this and say, "You know what? I'm going to draft Rhamondre ahead of Henderson." The way that I look at it
22:20is that if they are going to be within six PPR points of each other, I want the one that I think has more upside and has
22:26their production slanted towards the back half of the season. Rhamondre is going to be a higher week one ranking for me when I do my week one running
22:35back rankings. But when we talk about my week 11 running back rankings, I think that that is going to slant more towards
22:40Trayveon Henderson. Now, to wrap this whole thing up, we of course have an injury for Henderson, but it seems to not be a big deal from Jeff
22:49Mueller. It's not a big deal, no fade for now. And then, as I was recording this video, a report came out that he
22:54should be good to go for week one. So, I am not going to be worried about the injury. He is an upside swing. I get
23:00that the floor is nothing, but when we're taking swings at RB2, I want to be taking home run swings to try and build monster teams. Then we
23:09have the Packers receivers. We have Christian Watson and Jayden Reed here as two players I am way higher than consensus on. I am
23:1813 spots ahead on Watson, only four spots ahead on Jayden Reed, but I still continue to draft a lot of Reed. I think
23:24that that's a scenario where like sleeper or just one of the platforms is really pushing up Jayden Reed, but I want to be all in on this passing
23:31offense this year. This is a team that lost a game to the Cleveland Browns because they were too conservative and run heavy and wanting to sit on the ball
23:38and play the possession game. I think that they now learn heading into this year that they have to let Jordan Love cook
23:43and throw the ball.
23:45As said by a Packers beat reporter here, Aaron Nagler, just kind of saying that he expects them to air it out, have more
23:53no huddle, more up tempo, and more Jordan Love directing things at the line, and that is very exciting because they have been 27th and 30th in pass
24:02attempts the last 2 years, but when Jordan Love had his true breakout season in 2023, they were 15th in pass attempts. I think that they're going to
24:10get back to that style of play. Now, when we talk about Christian Watson in particular, this is somebody heading into year five like Jameson Williams,
24:17peak production season for wide receivers.
24:20Players are injury prone until they aren't. I get the downside with Christian Watson when it comes to staying healthy and being on the field,
24:27but when he's on the field, he's amazing. Over a 13-game sample where he runs 75% or more of the routes, he averages 17.5 points per game. That
24:37would be good for a top six wide receiver number in any given year.
24:41That's a stat from Ryan Heath, and now that Romeo Doubs is gone and now that Dontayvion Wicks is gone, we have a
24:46situation where he is going to be running routinely 80% or more of the routes. Now, he is actually what a lot
24:52of us think Jameson Williams is, where his A dot is like 17 or 18 yards, but that could change this year. We're
25:00already seeing in the preseason him get fun usage. This is from Zane Zanoni here showing that this is a target of him
25:07getting the ball around the line of scrimmage. They used him in preseason in the slot, in motion, on play action cutting across the formation for easy
25:13yak. And if we get the marriage of down the field explosive plays, but then also the easy button stuff out of the
25:22slot and in motion, Christian Watson is set up to be an absolute monster. Now, you might say, "Well, why do you like
25:28one and then also Jayden Reed?" And I just want pieces of this passing offense. Maybe not on the same fantasy football team, but I want to take stabs
25:36at both. Jayden Reed is a guy who has also had issues running enough routes on the football field, but now that Dobbs is gone, now
25:45that Wicks is gone, we could see more for Jayden Reed. Now, I expect Matthew Golden and Watson to be out there in two
25:50wide receiver sets. That doesn't mean that they're not going to run a lot more three wide receiver sets this season.
25:56Jayden Reed just got a big contract.
25:57He's one of their best, most explosive playmakers. And when we talk about talent at wide receiver, this is somebody that has a career yards per
26:04route run of 2.09.
26:06And when we're talking about the Mekhi Levens of the world of these you draft wide receivers to the flex, Jayden Reed is the perfect plus one or
26:14plus two to come off the bench as an upside swing at wide receiver. From Jacob Gibbs here, fantasy points per route run through an initial 20 games,
26:22it is Tyreek Hill, and then it is Jayden Reed in terms of the most in his database. And then you have from 2023 to
26:282025, Jayden Reed is the wide receiver one in fantasy points per target and passer rating when targeted. And now, of course, Dobbs and Wicks are both gone. I
26:38get it. He might be the odd man out in two wide receiver sets, but we've seen glimpses of Jayden Reed, and I have to
26:43chase it where he goes in drafts.
26:45Another receiver with a similar issue to Jayden Reed is Josh Downs, our final player that we have in 25% or more of these
26:54high stakes fantasy football leagues, Josh Downs. Another talented wide receiver stuck in three wide receiver sets, can't get out there in two wide
27:01receiver sets, but similar to Jayden Reed, who loses Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Downs loses Michael Pittman,
27:11and he can now become the focal point of this wide receiver room, Alec Pierce being a clear out guy. And then also we
27:17have Keenan Allen, who I understand the hold up with here. This is from Zay Flowers. Essentially, they're bringing him in to be a specialist to come in on
27:26third downs. Last year he set a career high with a 65% route share out wide, meaning that when he comes on the field,
27:32I think that we're going to see still Josh Downs in the slot in 11 personnel, and then outside in two wide receiver
27:39sets next to Alec Pierce as a true focal point of this offense. Now, Josh Downs did pick up a calf injury. I wouldn't be
27:45worried. He was out there uh doing media, being very positive. If it was something serious, you wouldn't be doing that. And then also from Deepak Chona
27:53here saying that it's a very mild calf issue.
27:57The risk due to two soft issues during camp is a little bit higher, but he's likely going to play week one at 100%.
28:03I'm not too worried here. This is somebody on a per route basis has been a monster. Last year he led all Colts
28:09receivers in first downs per route run, one of the best efficiency metrics we have at the position. Alec Pierce is banged up. De'Von Achane is off an
28:15Achilles, might be more likely to feature Josh Downs underneath, but then also the big hold up with him in a very
28:22similar uh not similar, but on the opposite side of the spectrum where Christian Watson has a really deep ADoT, and we want that to
28:29come down. Josh Downs had a career high 8.4 yd ADoT, but we still want that to go higher. That's still a gadget style
28:35role, and what Keenan Allen can do is take a lot of the underneath stuff away so that Josh Downs can get loose down
28:40the field as more of a his upside, getting down the field used vertically, similar to a like Tyler Lockett that Matt Harmon over at
28:52Reception Perception has been comparing Josh Downs to all along. This is somebody that earns targets at a very high rate from Ryan Heath here over the
29:00first three seasons of a wide receiver's career.
29:03Targets per route run, it is Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown, London Wandale, Olave, JSN, Garrett Wilson, and then Josh Downs in the 25% or higher
29:11club, of course. Zay Flowers and Christian Watson also on this list as two guys that we are very high on, but
29:18that is the list.
29:19Nine players that I'm betting my entire fantasy season on.
29:24I have them on 25% of my teams or more so far. We'll see if it continues to climb from here on out, but make sure
29:31you watch me draft those teams in the streams every night. I'm sure whatever day this video gets posted, I'll be streaming tonight, whatever draft that I
29:38end up getting into. And then, of course, if you have a draft coming up as well, I eat at my own restaurant, so you
29:43should, too. I am drafting off of my own draft guide on all of these streams. You should be drafting off of it as well,
29:48the basementdraftguide.com.
29:50Get my tier top 200, my target rounds, my player notes, my targets, my fades, my sleepers.
29:55It's all in there. You can compare my rankings to consensus ADP, to sleeper ADP, to Yahoo expert consensus rankings.
30:01You can sync my rankings up to your sleeper draft so it crosses off players as you go, the whole nine yards, it's
30:08all there. The basementdraftguide.com.
30:09You can find that in the description and the comment section down below, but with that being said, I appreciate you watching and I'll see y'all in the next
30:17one.
30:19>> Oh.
30:22This [music] sounds like [singing] a Oh.
30:28>> [singing] >> Leave me a stone. [music] Like this frost.
30:32Ice cold.
30:34Oh. Oh.
30:35I saw her in my body like I'm frozen up.
