0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Rod and today is draft day for Y League Mates, a content
0:06creator league with me, the BDG guys, so Nicer Colano, Gut, JMO, their whole crew, and then the Snapback guys, so the
0:13settlements, you have Icy Vert joining.
0:15You have the Nerd Sesh guys joining as well. It is a very fun league. It is a broadcasted league out to the internet
0:22on YouTube. You can see the channel here. I'll have a link in the description in the comment section down below. But we want to do well. This is
0:28of course what I do professionally. It's also something that's going to be broadcasted to the world. So, we don't want to embarrass ourselves. And then we
0:34also want to win the prize money up top.
0:37So, what I did in preparation is I spent multiple hours yesterday going through my rankings and updating and tweaking to make sure everything is just perfect for
0:48this draft that is going to kick off in exactly two hours. So today I am going to give you my updated dialedin top 60
0:56rankings for fantasy football. We can talk through how I see the tier breaks, the players I'm targeting, the players I'm fading, and then also give you an
1:02updated scope after this Ashton Genty injury and talk through how I am playing the board today, August 25th. I know a
1:11lot of you guys have drafts coming up.
1:12As always, if you enjoy, subscribe if you're new, leave a like, and let's get right into it. Now, of course, we are
1:19going to be showing off the basement draft guide. You can get my rankings over on the basementdraftguide.com. We have worked super super hard on it. And
1:27this is just a really nice intro for you so you can kind of see what it looks like, how it works. Also, we're going to
1:33talk about the rankings in this video, but you of course have the ADP Edge tool where you can look at my rankings versus
1:37consensus ADP, Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo. Uh you can see the players that I'm changing around as well, all of my changes I'm making every single day. Uh,
1:46and then also an interactive cheat sheet if you want something more simple. Bang.
1:49You can cross these off as you go. But let's get right into my top 60.
1:56Essentially, the first five rounds of drafts for full PPR leagues.
2:02Two wide receiver, two flex is what we are working with here. Here are the player notes over here. And we'll just
2:07kind of bounce around. Now, there's not really much to say when it comes to tier one. You have Gibbs, you have Bejian,
2:11Jamar Chase, Puka.
2:13I will say Gibbs locked and loaded 101. There's really nothing else to say there.
2:19Awesome offense, passcatching ceiling, explosive running back. Uh they want to run the offense through him. But where it gets tricky is too because people are
2:25starting to get cold feet when it comes to Bejon Robinson. And I definitely understand it. Uh their quarterback situation is brutal with Tua and Michael
2:33Penn. Tua has looked awful. This offense has looked awful. So, it's like Bejian's great, but he starts to have similar concerns to a guy like Devon Achan where
2:43if this offense is bottom five, can Bejon still be a special fantasy producer? I'm not budging on him at two at this point, but if you wanted to talk
2:53yourself into Jamir Gibson, a tier of his own, you absolutely could. And I just think given running back scarcity, I would want Bejon second overall over
3:00the two wide receivers here in Jamar Chase and Puka. Because as we've talked about in our draft strategy videos is you take Jamar Chase Puka, you come back
3:06around in the second and especially now with the Ashton Genty injury, running back is wiped and it's almost forcing you into a zero RB start which in home
3:15leagues I really wouldn't go for. Uh Jamar Chase locked and loaded wide receiver one next to Joe Burrow. Nothing needs to be said there. Puka Nakua of
3:22course has some injury concerns. He right now uh has been out of practice with I with an injury I honestly can't
3:31even pronounce. It's like Pawis or something like that. Uh, but it seems like he's going to be good to go. I'm
3:35not budging on him just yet. McCaffrey just returned to practice. This is our second tier here. It seems like he alternates between being the guy you
3:42needed in fantasy football as like a 24 25 point per game scorer and being one of the worst picks on the board. Every
3:48year that you take McCaffrey, you are playing roulette. And I think that that's what you're playing this year.
3:53Then we have JT. I think in this five and six spot, we want to be taking running backs here. again, very good
3:58chance that the running backs in tier three don't make it back to you. So, that's my tiebreaker. But certainly in like three wide receiver, one flex, full
4:07PPR formats, you can definitely break the tie to JSN, to Aman Rosane Brown.
4:12Really tough to rank these two. Aman Ross Brown in a much better situation. I think JSN's the better player. I break
4:17the tie to JSN. And I will say as well, I mean, you're not going to see any big changes here, but I have consensus ADP
4:23picked as the thing that we are comparing against. You can pick any of these to see who I'm higher or lower on
4:28given the format. Now, I have James Cook in this tier as a huge target. He is somebody where and I will say I I'll
4:37sort of speak on these tags here. I have targets. I have avoids. The player rankings are where they're ranked. Like don't see that James Hook as a target
4:45and then move them up to the five spot.
4:47Like I have him ranked or I have him ranked, but nine spot is higher than Consensus. We are two spots higher than
4:52the 10.6 Consensus ADP. and I want to be drafting a lot of James Cook this year.
4:56So, if you're in like a two wide receiver, one flex half PPR league where things start to shift towards running back, you can definitely take James Cook
5:01higher. The offense is obviously going to be the offense. James Cook is going to compete for leading the league in rushing yards. But I do think that there
5:08is a secret trap door of upside this year if he can catch passes. It's a big if, but they of course bring over Pete
5:14Carmichael who comes from the Shawn Payeyton tree. You also have Shawn McDermott getting fired. So, now that Joe Brady is the head coach, one that
5:21means we could see more pass attempts, right? Like Sean McDerm is a defensive-minded head coach. He might have been more on the side of let's play
5:28defense, let's run the ball, let's eat the clock. What if Joe Brady comes in here? Someone that was the head coach or
5:33not the head coach, he was the play caller for 2019 LSU. Of course, I'm not saying that this team has Jamar
5:38Chaseerson and Joe Burrow, but someone who's more offensive minded, might want to play more uptempo, might want to pass the ball more. Uh, and then also Pete
5:45Carmichael coming in might float the idea of let's get James Cook some receptions. Then I have a tier break. And this is where it gets tricky.
5:55I personally have the two receivers ahead. They project better. They are hero wide receivers to me. CD Lamb at my wide receiver five. Justin Jefferson at
6:03my wide receiver six. We talked about this in the legendary wide receiver video. I ended up nudging CD Lamb just ahead of Justin Jefferson here. Uh just
6:11due to the fact that the offense is just so much more stable. We know what Dak Prescott is. We know what the Cowboys
6:15are. George Piggin is there, but I don't think that it limits his ceiling in the same way others do. just because Dak
6:20Prescott is so good. Dak in any given year can challenge for damn near 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. And I
6:27think we could see a similar setup to what 2024 Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins was where Jamar Chase was the wide
6:35receiver one overall. Tiggins was a top five point per game receiver and then Joe Burrow was awesome. I think that that is all in play for the Cowboys.
6:41People forget people talk about CD Lamb like he's not a special player. Last year he was banged up. He had some bad
6:48touchdown luck, but you go back to his 2023 season, I believe he had 23.7 points per game, which would have been
6:55the wide receiver one overall last year.
6:57Uh truly monstrous season. And then Jefferson's Jefferson at this point, uh he has just been on an awesome pace in terms of every single year. I think that
7:07he might be the leader in terms of active players in yards per game. Uh outside of his games with JJ McCarthy,
7:12he has been one of the best receivers in the league. It just comes down to how much you view Kyler Murray as an upgrade
7:18and that do we get to see a JJ McCarthy start at any point in time. Uh then we just get to all the running backs. This
7:24is where to me once the two receivers go off the board, it becomes an arms race to who can just rattle off these running
7:30backs in round two. We're splitting hairs here. I go Chase Brown. We did the legendary running back video and just because of the target earning upside,
7:38the offensive upside with the Bengals touchdowns, he he averaged 20 plus points per game in his games with Joe Burrow last year. It gets super tough
7:46for me to move Chase Brown much lower.
7:48He feels a lot like Austin Eckler in Austin Eckller's prime, which is, you know, I'm saying that in a positive manner, but we're also in
7:56a spot here where I'm pretty confident that Kenneth Walker, Seaquan, Derk Henry, and Devon Achan are all much better talents as players. So, that's
8:04where it gets spooky when we are drafting players based on their environment and not their talent this early in the draft. Uh, then I have
8:11Kenneth Walker, someone I'm pretty certain is talented, but we haven't seen him put it together for over an entire season. I do think that the Chiefs went
8:19out there, made him a priority to run the offense through him. And I think that we're going to see a 20 plus point
8:25per game score in an Andy Reid offense for the first time since LeShawn McCoy. I I don't think Kareem Hunt ever hit 20 plus, but it is the
8:34most talented running back Andy Reid has had since Lehan McCoy. Uh I do believe in Kenneth Walker's talent to that extent. But if Chase Brown and Kenneth
8:42Walker Mickey squeamish, Saquon Barkley is my 202. He's absolutely fine there.
8:46We saw in 2024 what his upside could be.
8:49I'm sort of splitting the difference here. On one hand, I could see S Seaquin absolutely crushing this year and having the 2024 season where he's a 20 plus
8:56point per game scorer, but the nerd in me looks at it and says he scored so many of those touchdowns from 20 plus
9:03yards, 30 plus yards, 40 plus yards.
9:04This is a team that again is going to do the tush push in close. This is a team that a time and time again even and it's
9:11honestly less of a it's some team level stuff. It's also a lot of Jaylen Herz of not wanting to feature Saquon in the passing game. If
9:21we could get 60 plus catches for Saquon, he'd be a top five pick. It's just with Jaylen Herz and the lack of checkdowns.
9:28It just doesn't happen a ton. With AJ Brown leaving, there is upside for it to happen. There is upside for them to go
9:33away from the touch to push now that they have a new OC.
9:36It just doesn't seem very likely. And also, this offensive line's getting older. They lose Jeff Stoutland and all of a sudden they are a very fragile
9:45fragile bet when you look at this offense. Then we have a Marian Hampton.
9:49Uh and I will say all these guys are in the same tier. So I am very much a big proponent of like tiers are tiers. Yes,
9:56I have Chase Brown, Walker, Saquon in this order, but you can order these guys however you want within their own tiers.
10:01Uh at the 203 you have a Marian Hampton.
10:05On one hand you have Mike McDaniels running back. We want pieces of this offense. The offensive line is better, but they're starting to get hurt. We
10:10have Bottish getting hurt. We have Rashawn Slater potentially not back at practice yet. So, it's really Joe Al and kind of the funky bunch here. But I want
10:17pieces of this Chargers offense. Marian Hampton could absolutely crush this year as a secondyear running back with upside. Then we have Derrick Henry in
10:24full PPR. He's an Enigma. I mean, he's my 204 in full PPR. So, I'm actually in on Derrick Henry this year. We're three
10:29spots ahead of Contendus on Derrick Henry. Who would have thought?
10:33We know what he is at this point. We've seen him crush in 2024 where he was at like 19 plus points per game. If he can
10:39hit that from the 204, that's not a terrible outcome. And then there's also been a lot of talk that they could get
10:44Derrick Henry used in the screen game.
10:46And then that is when Derrick Henry could just go absolutely nuclear in a really strong offense. Uh then we can talk about Devon Achan in a void for me.
10:53I will say he is my 205. I'm four spots lower than Consensus. And this is where I wanted to speak on the avoid tag. I
10:59have him 205. He's in a void. But if you get to your point in the draft where Devon Achan is the best player on the
11:05board, take him. Like don't just say, "Oh, he has the avoid tag. I can't take him here." I have these players ranked
11:10where they're ranked for a reason. You know, it's just the avoid tag is just simply me telling you, "Hey, I'm lower
11:15on this guy than the consensus ADP."
11:17That doesn't mean that when you get to the 17th overall pick and Devon Achan's the best player available that you don't
11:22take him. This is the part, you know, I haven't ranked in a spot where this is where I would now take him. So Devon
11:28Achan's tough. uh the receiving upside like we just talked about with Saquon.
11:31Saquon's one of the best receiving prospects of all time. His rookie year on the Giants. He caught I think like literally 90 plus balls and you get
11:38Jaylen Herz and now the guy can't crack 50 plus catches. Devon Aan has a similar deal here with Malik Willis. I think
11:44with M Mike McDaniel leaving they're not going to be able to cover up the offensive line's deficiencies as well.
11:51The offense might suck. It's not great.
11:54But at the end of the day, he is a talented player. He's going to be the bellcow. Uh, but he's just he makes me
11:59squeamish compared to these other options just given the environment he's in. Right, we're talking about the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, Ravens. It's pretty simple on paper why
12:07I would prefer those running backs. But I have him at the 205 because again, it is an arms race to stack up as many of
12:13these running backs in round two as possible. Then once all the running backs are wiped, I would have Bowowers, AJ Brown, and Drake London in their own
12:20tier. Bowowers, of course, is an absolute monster. Uh, I know some people were saying like they wanted my Bowowers take after the Genty injury. I don't see
12:27it really affecting things very much for Brock Bowers. I think Ashton Genty will be back at some point, which we'll talk
12:34about when we get to Genty, but I'm I'm getting some weird vibes that I I don't know that Genty will be ready for week
12:38one or like even week two, week three, week four, but I still think Brock Bowers will be the focal point of this
12:44offense and defenses will now be able to game plan for that. I mean, they already were, but like without Genty, they can
12:49just really hone in on Bowers, but then he's also going to get more volume without Genty. So, it's kind of a I
12:56think it kind of cancels each other out.
12:57Uh, then we have AJ Brown, someone that I think has all the upside in the world attached to Drake May. This could be a
13:042020 Stfan Dig situation where he comes to a new team or even like if you want to dream really big, uh, Randy Moss in '
13:1007. I'm not saying he's going to score 24 touchdowns or whatever it was for Moss, but one of these situations where
13:15a wide receiver that we are pretty certain is one of the more talented players of his generation getting the best quarterback of his career. It's all
13:26lining up here. Then we have Drake London. Similar concerns to Bejon. This offense is really scary to bet on. But Drake London, even in this offense with
13:34Michael Penn, has been a guy where last year before his PCL injury was a 19 point per game score. But then also with
13:39the PCL injury, is that going to linger?
13:41We saw that be an issue for Ricky Paw.
13:43It's also a concern for Brock Bowers.
13:45Brock Bowers and Drake London both coming off that PCL knee injury. As of right now, they seem fine, but just something to to think about. Then we
13:52have tier four. These are guys that I'm drafting at the two three turn at least at the top here, right? So you take your
13:59BJ or Gibbs, you come back around and then these are the receivers I like.
14:02Nico Collins now that Jaden Higgins is hurt. Yes, they bring in Kahan Booty, but I think that Kahan Booty actually helps him a lot where Kahan Booty is a
14:09guy that is going to be a field stretcher, which means Nico Collins doesn't have to play X and kind of soak
14:14up those vertical routes. Booty can kind of clear things out and then all of a sudden Nico Collins can get moved around
14:19the formation and used in the intermediate parts out of the slot, get some layup targets, and then Nico Collins can really challenge for 20 plus
14:26points per game. Then we have Neighbors.
14:29This comes down to risk tolerance. We're five spots higher than consensus here off the ACL tear. How do we feel about
14:35it? It's really tough to say. I think as I clicked record to start recording this video, it came out that Malik Neighbors
14:41is going to be uh like he he shed his non-cont jersey. I think that he's going to play literally week one. He might be
14:48a wide receiver too out the gate, but he has such monstrous upside heading into year three. We saw his rookie year when
14:54he was like a 35% target share guy. He dominates targets. He's one of the best players in the league. And if he was
14:59fully healthy, he'd be going right next to CD Lamb and Justin Jefferson in that one-two turn area. Then we have Chris
15:05Ave here. Jordan Tyson goes down. We saw last year Chris Ave averaged 18 points per game with Tyler Shuck.
15:13Can he take a step forward even further to 20 plus points per game? That kind of all comes down to Tyler Shuck, but Chris
15:18Olav is a good pick. I will say definitely something to think about the concussion history, the blood clots this offseason. There is some downside there,
15:25but I do like Olive where he's going.
15:27Then we have George Pickkins. don't know how he gets a 20 plus points per game next to CD Lamb. But I suppose there is
15:33a scenario where George Piggins is just straight up a better player than CD Lamb. That takes a lot of dreaming big.
15:38But even if not, again, I think that he can be what T. Higgins was in Jamar Chase's triple crown season and give you
15:4317 plus points per game next to CD Lamb's 20 plus points per game. Then we have Dvonte Smith. And I would say this
15:49is like a mini tier break here to Devonte Smith who I I don't have quite in the same breath as those guys just
15:56given that his quarterback is Jaylen Herz. But AJ Brown leaves. This could be a lever to pull where AJ Brown goes. New
16:04OC in Devonte Smith in games without Devon or Devonte Smith in games without AJ Brown has been like a 30% plus target
16:09share guy. Can he come in right away in this fresh era for him, I guess I would call it, and be the undisputed alpha.
16:18But then also, what is his touchdown upside in an offense where every time they're inside the 10 yard line, it's going to be rush attempts, it's going to
16:25be push pushes. Uh, then we have Trey McBride.
16:28This is where I want to have him. I I flipped him from a void to just a normally ranked player. I'm three spots
16:33lower than Consensus. So, tight end Hungry Leagues, we're not going to get him here. But, he did just have a top
16:38five PPR point season ever for a tight end. And we are now regressing that all the way to the 26th overall player, 22
16:45and a half by consensus. This sounds about right. He definitely had things inflated by the Cardinals having way more pass attempts than anyone else, by
16:54him having way more routes run than any other tight end, but this is where I'm comfortable putting him. He crushed last
17:00year. He could easily crush again, and if not, he can give you a solid 15 points per game at tight end and give
17:05you a real edge at the position. Then we have Bree Hall. Uh the groin injury keeps coming back as positive. Uh Jeff
17:11Mueller on Twitter, literally yesterday said that he's good to go. Like I I really wouldn't lower him for the groin injury. But what it comes down to is the
17:18Jets offense. The Jets offensive line has looked great. There's been reports coming out of camp that Gino Smith has looked better than expected. I just
17:24think last year Bree Hall already was in this like top 15 running back and points per game area despite having quarterbacks of Justin Fields and Tyrod
17:33Taylor and Brady Cook. And while yes, those are bad quarterbacks, they're also scramble first quarterbacks and took his receiving ceiling from 70 plus catches
17:44down to he had like 38 last year, I think, which is really, really low for Bree. I think he's going to go back up
17:49to a 60 plus catch season. I think we're going to see some efficiency with this offensive line and I think Breeall has a
17:54lot of upside here to out produce this price tag. Then we have Genty. I have him 28th, 14 spots lower than Consensus. I want to
18:03remain low on Genty here until we get something firm.
18:08You guys can say all you want. Like I if I if I'm if I sound crazy, you guys let me know. All right? If I'm putting on
18:14the tin foil hat, which I kind of am here, but when a guy goes down ugly and the entire team takes a prayer circle
18:21and then he goes into the back locker room, they run tests, they run test, and we're talking like six hours later, they
18:27say, "Oh, well, he they made it seem like, oh, he just he just twisted his ankle." Like, no way. No way. He like
18:34goes down super ugly. The whole team is upset and then like if he just twisted his ankle, they would go into the locker
18:40room, they would just like report it right away. So I don't believe it. I think it's a high ankle sprain. I think
18:45it's like a a bad high ankle sprain is what I am gathering, which means and right now it's August 25th, so there's not any
18:53urgency for the Raiders to put him on IR or to give a firm report. And the reporting's also been sketchy. I think
18:59chef Rapaort went on the McAfee show yesterday and still it's like there's nothing concrete there. They're leaving something out. Maybe I'm crazy, but
19:10there's something something doesn't smell right with this Genty situation. I think that there's a lot of reporting that's downplaying it as oh it's just a
19:17twisted ankle. I think it's a bad bad high ankle sprain and I think he's going to miss multiple weeks potentially go on
19:23IR. That's just my gut feeling. We'll see how this goes. As we get more information, I will continue to update the rankings. And I will say his target
19:30round is round three. I'd still take him in round three, which by the way, this is the target round for everybody. It's
19:35just where I would suggest taking them.
19:38Uh even if a player is in a void, round three is the price that I would pay on a guy like Rashi Rice. Then we have
19:43Jeremiah Love. Similar deal as Ashton Genty. He has his own high ankle sprain he's working through. But in the preseason, he looked electric. I think
19:50that this is on the lower concern side of things. Really the issue is is he had an awesome workload in that preseason
19:57game next to Tyler Alier and then this injury has now kind of opened the door back open to let Tyler Azir come in and
20:05make this a 50-50 split. And that's what's concerning to me. Then we have Zay Flowers. Everyone out there is going to roast Zay Flowers and say, "Oh, he
20:11can't score touchdowns." What happens when he's Lamar Jackson's number one overall wide receiver? He finished as a top 12 point per game wide receiver last
20:18year in a really big down year for Lamar Jackson.
20:22Zay Flowers heading into year four.
20:24Could he have his best year yet attached to Lamar? And if Lamar throws for 35 plus, 40 plus touchdowns, why can't Zay
20:30Flowers catch 10 of them? I get he's short. We have a new head coach. We have a new offensive coordinator. We have no
20:36more Isaiah likely. I think Flowers could luck into some touchdown looks here. Then we have Rashi Rice. He's somebody that I I I'm low on. I have him
20:44as an avoid, but again, if he gets a 31, you can take him. He's just not for me.
20:49He's just not for me. He is somebody that has like a 5-yard AOT. He's a gimmicky player. He He's somebody almost
20:55similar to Chase Brown in a way of like this is actually the perfect juxaposition where I am insanely certain that Garrett Wilson is 10 times the wide
21:05receiver Rashi Rice is. Rashi Rice just has a 5-yard AOT spam me the ball roll attached to Patrick Mahomes whereas Garrett Wilson's quarterback is Gino
21:13Smith.
21:14Rashi Rice could completely kill me here. He could go for 20 plus points per game and be one of the guys you need. I
21:20just can't see the Chiefs continuing to run their offense through Rashi Rice. We have multiple knee injuries now. We have multiple off the- field things now. We
21:28have him serving a stint in jail and this offense just hasn't looked right in the Rashi Rice era. I think they bring
21:35in Kenneth Walker to run the offense through Kenneth Walker. That's why I have him ranked so high. So Rashi Rice, he's not for me. Uh then we get to tier
21:42five. These are guys that I'm taking in that middle of the third area, I guess I would say, or like really like three,
21:49four turn. We have first up, Garrett Wilson. I will say, if you're seeing what I'm wearing, I'm wearing like a Jets polo.
21:55The uh theme for Yard League's draft is everyone showing up like coaches. So, today I'm showing up like Adam Gase, which you might be like, "Oh, well, what
22:06about this is Adam Gase?"
22:10That's my Adam Gase impression for anyone out there. Um, I hope that maybe two of you guys laughed at that. Um, all
22:17right. So, we have Garrett Wilson.
22:18Garrett Wilson I like. I'm just cons I'm just extremely certain that he's an elite talent. He earns targets. And if this offense can be even just normal,
22:27right? This can't be an offense where last year they were under 3,000 passing yards. But even last year Garrett Wilson through five games with Justin Fields
22:32was at 19 points per game as the wide receiver. Five. We're getting a pretty nice discount here. I'm six spots higher
22:38than Consensus. Then we have Josh Allen.
22:40Honestly, depending on how shallow your league is, right, the the more percentage your quarterback takes up of your starting lineup, right? So, if it's two
22:47wide receiver, one flex, your quarterback's really important. If it's three wide receiver, two flex, that really devalues quarterback there.
22:54Josh Allen's a tough one. He has been amazing for five years running. He doesn't have quite the same ceiling league winning upside as some of these
23:01breakout receivers, but his floor is so high that I think once Gary Wilson's off the board instead of taking one of these
23:06breakout receivers, I'm fine just doing the Josh Allen thing. Uh then we have all of these breakout receivers kind of bunched up here. You have Lad year three
23:14breakout attached to Herbert Ibuka year two. Can he capture the 20 plus point per game magic waddle in a new situation? He has been super efficient
23:21on a per route basis over his entire career. Will he now be the focal point attached to Boon Knicks and Shawn
23:27Payeyton? T. Higgins, we know what he is. This is probably too cheap for T.
23:31Higgins, someone that projects very similar similarly to a George Pickins next to CD Lamb, but T. Higgins next to Jamar Chase. And then Tedo McMillan who
23:40they are using in the slot more. He's very exciting. He's a great player. The issue just becomes Bryce Young. How far
23:45can he go attached to Bryce Young? It's a very similar situation to Garrett Wilson, right? Really good player attached to a bad quarterback. But I'm
23:54just certain that Garrett Wilson is a top 10 talent at receiver. Tedo McMillan still needs to show that. Uh then we
24:00have Coulson Leland who I really like in this range. I want to be higher than consensus on Coulson Leland. I think
24:05he's going to lead all Bears in points per game in terms of the skill position players down the stretch last year. He
24:11was amazing. And then in the preseason, he got the usage we were hoping for of a very high route share as one of the
24:18focal points of this offense. Then we have my running backs. And I will say this is an entire tier tiers over
24:24rankings. If you're in a spot where you're in a two running back, one flex league, two wide receiver league, half PPR, you can certainly pull up these
24:31running backs to the top of this tier.
24:33They're just not for me. I would have, even though they didn't make the list for the dead zone video, I would have
24:38Javvante and Kairen in the dead zone.
24:40Javvante, his receiving ceiling isn't there. You're essentially just buying the touchdown score for the Dallas Cowboys, which isn't terrible, but they
24:49could score a lot through the air.
24:50Javvante could regress. He could get some of his work taken away. And his yard spout run was so low that he is
24:55simply just a between the tackles grinder on a good team, which is which is a good role to have. It's just not
25:00somebody I'm going to take 33rd overall with all the wide receivers there. Just knowing that I can get running backs later. There are running backs who we'll
25:08get to you in that 56 turn area that I like as well. Um, then we have Kairen Williams. Similar deal. I think that I
25:16started to get really spooked looking into some of the Blake Cororm stuff. I think Blake Cororm could really make this thing an ugly split. And then
25:22again, you're just drafting between the T tackles grinder on a good offense, which again isn't a bad idea. It's just not one I want to be taking 41st
25:32overall. You can do that with DeAndre Swift in the fifth round. Uh, then we have ETN, who we talked about in our dead zone
25:40running back video. We're actually starting to come around on ETN, uh, with Kamar banged up to start the season. ETN should be the lead back for the Saints,
25:48which should have a fun offensive environment, playing uptempo, pushing the pace. The offensive line is really good. Then we have Jacobs, who I have
25:54just kind of buried here. It seems like he's not going to get suspended, but he's also an aging back who's always
26:00banged up. He has a pending legal case.
26:02He also is on a team that has a terrible offensive line. He's on a team that really values Marshon Lloyd. Marshon
26:08Lloyd has been looking good. I think they're going to lean into the past more. So Josh Jacobs I just have a
26:12little bit buried in the rankings to make sure I don't really draft much of him. That's also another thing. I know
26:16that some people will be looking at these rankings be like, "Oh, Josh is going to beat RB18." And these rankings aren't me trying to forecast
26:24how the season happens word for word. I know that that's a crazy thing to say, but this is a ranking of how I would
26:30draft these players given each of their range of outcomes. I am not trying to perfectly predict the wide receiver 22.
26:36I'm saying draft a Luther Burton at the wide receiver 22 given his upside. I'm not sure if that makes sense, but I'm
26:42not looking to hit singles. I'm not looking to be the most accurate mock or accurate ranker in the world. I'm looking to hunt league winners so that
26:49we can win fantasy football leagues and not accuracy contests. Uh but we really like Luther Burton. Year two upside.
26:56He's not for everybody. Uh I get it.
26:58Everyone gets really squeamish about the small sample size of routes, but sometimes you have to dream big and Luther Burden is dreaming big. Then we
27:05have tier six. To me, this is the most important tier in fantasy football. Uh I find myself wanting to stack up on
27:12receivers here. We have Jameson Williams, DJ Moore, Terry McLaren. We moved up DJ Moore way up after our legendary wide receiver video. If, like
27:19we talked about with James Cook, if this offense decides to pass the ball more, look out for DJ Moore. If he is just
27:25going to be straight up Josh Allen's number one receiver, he has a lot of upside. You can see I've been moving
27:30I've been inching him up. Three spots the 13th, four spots the 17th, four spots the 19th. Uh Jameson Williams with this Leaporta injury and the way that
27:38Jameson Williams closed out last season down the stretch. I am really into Jameson Williams this year as somebody that could really pop off. Uh and I
27:46think something that gets so misconred with Jameson Williams is he's so boomer bust. He's going to kill you some weeks.
27:53And what I would say is you just have to start them. Like when you draft a player in the fourth round, you start them
27:58every week and you're just going to catch all of the good weeks and all the bad weeks. The bad weeks are going to
28:02suck. But if you look back at your individual home league, you'll see most of the matchups every week are blowouts.
28:10Yes, does it hurt? It hurts really bad when you lose by.3 on a Monday night football game, but most of your matchups
28:16are going to get decided by like 20 or so points. So you want those ceiling spike weeks from Jameson Williams. And
28:21it's why I think stuff like consistency is extremely overrated and it's also overrated year-to-year. I remember when I first started doing this, Tyler
28:28Lockett was a big boomer bust player.
28:30And then I believe it was the year where Russ was in contention for MVP. This is going to be like 2021 2022 area. Tyler
28:36Locket was one of the most consistent scorers in fantasy. It's why if you did any kind of consistency metric year-over-year stickiness, there'd be no
28:44correlation.
28:46Every given year is its own thing. Some players are super consistent one year, not consistent the next year. Really all that matters to me is a player's points
28:53per game because they're going to be in my lineup. Uh then we have DJ Moore and if they're not in your lineup, you're
28:58playing too shallow of a league. Like a two wide receiver, one flex, bump that up. Uh then we have McLaren, number one
29:04receiver attached to Jaden Daniels. Uh Diggs moved him down initially for me, but I think Stfan Diggs coming in. He's going to be more of a situational
29:12wide receiver in three wide receiver sets. I don't think that he's going to really challenge McLaren for much. Then we have Tyler Warren at this four, five
29:19turn area. I just think tight ends get pushed up so much in home leagues that I want to have Tyler Warren in an area
29:25where we are ending up with one of the top four tight ends in most of our drafts. I don't mind punting off the
29:30position, but I also don't mind paying up for Tyler Warren here. Year two guy was awesome last year. Alec Pierce is
29:36banged up. He could be the focal point of this Colts offense. Uh then we have DeAndre Swift. He's somebody that I
29:41moved up after actually I got to slap the target tag on Swift. think eh I'm only four spots higher, but he's
29:48somebody in the dead zone research that really stuck out as a guy that's going to be on a good offense. Manungai is
29:53banged up. Uh he has outproduced his ADP in the dead zone multiple multiple times before. Then we have Cam Scatabo. I will
30:00say in the dead zone research, Scatabo was the front runner as the number one candidate. I moved him behind Swift just
30:06because of the Manungai news. And then also Scatabo, the injury is the only thing. Of course, the dead zone model can't take into
30:12account that Cam Scot had a dislocated ankle last year. That's my only concern is just the injury downside. I know they
30:18brought in Naji Harris. I'm not super concerned about that. I still think that he has an awesome role of being the goal
30:23line back, being the pass catcher, and could really crush this year, but the injury just gives me a little bit of
30:29pause. Then we have Devonte. uh brutal year last year efficiency wise like his yards per run all of that but also he
30:37was effectively used as the goal line back for the Rams scoring I think what did he score like 17 yeah he scored 14
30:43touchdowns last year which is just absurd I think they're going to use him in a similar role this year and I think
30:47he could even kind of positively regress on the yards per out run side then we have Parker Washington a guy who's just
30:53been I'm not sure there's been a bigger riser it's been Parker Washington a huge riser and Jonathan Brooks a huge riser
30:58this summer he seems like he's going to be the focal point for a Jaguars passing offense that was humming down the
31:04stretch last year. Uh fun player out of Penn State. Kind of a late bloomer here in the NFL. Then Christian Watson
31:11towards ACL in 2024. No one thought he would come back in 2025. He comes back.
31:15He's awesome. He averages 13 plus points per game. And now he is going to be unleashed as the Packers wide receiver
31:20one for the first time. This is going to be the first time we see a Packers wide receiver room that isn't a fiveman
31:26hockey shift rotation where in years past we've seen Romeo Dobs and Dontavon Wixs and all these guys rotate in. Those two are now gone. It is Watson, it is
31:34Golden, it is Reed and that is it. All of those guys will be good for fantasy football. Uh then we have Bucky Irving.
31:42A big piece of news before I went live here and it sucks. I'm seven spots lower than Consensus even though I like Bucky,
31:46but he's really pushed up. him and two and I have is like very very similar players and there is a 15 pick
31:52difference here which is crazy to me.
31:54Bucky Irving has a lot of upside heading into year three on an offense I expect to bounce back with a good offensive
32:00line. Baker Mayfield healthy but he is splitting work with Kenneth Gainwell. So the receiving upside gets capped with Gainwell. But a big thing to look at is
32:08Shawn Tucker is a cut candidate right now. Shawn Tucker gets cut and we can just split this thing between just Bucky
32:13Irving and just Kenneth Gainwell. I think both Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell are really strong picks in that world because Shawn Tucker is taking a
32:19little bit of the goal line role away and if we can kind of just send that back over to Bucky Irving and Kenneth
32:24Gainwell, they both become awesome picks. Then we have Basil Tutin, year two running back on a good offense. The yards per run was lackluster last year,
32:32but if he can get the goal line roll, which I know is an if, right? He's next to Chris Rodriguez, but he was trusted
32:37as a steady success rate based runner. I know that Toutin, you see Tuton when he was coming out of school, he was a speed
32:44score, 40-yard dash guy, but last year he was a success rate runner in terms of all right, it's second and third. We
32:50need to get the chains moving here.
32:52Basil Tune was that guy. So, I think you can couple that with his explosive ability that he showed in college and
32:58then also get the screen game work from Liam Cohen that we've seen Liam Cohen spam Bucky Irving in 2024. He did it
33:04with Travis Tienne last year where Travis Tienne was one of ETN Gibbs McAffrey Bjon of having 2.4 plus points per game just off of the screen game. So
33:14something to look at with Tuton. Then we have Mike Evans who I would love to put much higher than this but it seems like
33:18he has a injury every other day.
33:20Something to monitor really closely right now uh when it comes to Mike Evans. He is he the last time that he
33:27was on a practice field he left early pissed off. We don't have anything conu uh concrete since then, so I have him
33:34here, but I'm fully ready to nuke him to the 70s. Uh then we have Judkins. We did the dead zone research. Judkins is a guy
33:40that is a year two player, is going to get all the touches in the world, but to break out of the dead zone, you need to
33:46be on a top 15 offense or average four plus targets per game. I don't think he can do either. So, that's kind of the
33:52biggest issue. Jaren Price, I want to keep moving him up. I even want to move him like ahead of Bucky here. I I've
33:59kind of restrained myself cuz I don't want to get too over my skis, but they've now shut him down for the rest
34:03of the preseason and are saying, "Okay, put this guy in bubble wrap. He's going to be our workhorse in week one. He's on
34:09a good team, projected to score for a lot of points." Uh, his only issue is his lack of receiving upside. And when
34:14Zack Charban comes back, how annoying will Zack Charbanet be? Then we have David Montgomery, someone I'm really cooling off on. We moved him down eight
34:20spots on August 21st. We did the dead zone research. It didn't come out good for David Montgomery. He is somebody that last year didn't really produce
34:27much. Now this year he's on a bad offense. Woody Marks caps his receiving ceiling and he's an old running back. So
34:33David Montgomery is in a void for me.
34:35And then we have Roman Dunce, our last player rounding out our top five rounds of rankings here. Good player. Year three breakout upside. I think that he
34:43gets a lot of credit for an eightgame stretch before injury, which of course he should, but he ran less routes over
34:49that eightgame stretch than Luther Burton did all of last year. They're both small samples. And if you go back to Roma Dun's rookie season, sophomore
34:57season, like his career yards per sprout run, his career targets per sprout run, none of it is any special. In fact, it's
35:02all down in like the Xavier Worthy tier, even below Marvin Harrison Jr. in that draft class. So, Roman Dun is a really
35:09tricky one for me. I think he could get some sacrificial Xwork offense, but there is also an upside case where he is
35:14the wide receiver one and outscores Loveland and outsores Luther Burton. And that's why I still have him as the 512 as genuinely
35:22a 56 turn pick as my wide receiver 30.
35:24Uh five spots lower than consensus. Not as an avoid, but somebody I'm not drafting a ton of. But that's going to
35:31do it for us today. That is how I am looking at the top five rounds of fantasy football drafts right now.
35:37Everything is dialed in. I made all of these changes yesterday to make sure that my rankings are dialed in for this
35:43your idiot league mates draft. Wish me luck. I'll say as well, if you have a draft coming up, make sure you check out
35:48the basementdraftguide.com.
35:51It has my tier top 200, my superflex rankings, PPR, half PPR. You guys saw all of my player notes, the player
35:58targets or player tags of avoids, targets, sleepers, uh my target rounds for every player. You can sync your draft to sleeper and then get it in the
36:09draft guide so it crosses all of players as you go. It is a beautiful thing. It is a living, breathing extension of me.
36:16And at this point, I eat at my own restaurant. This is the ranking sheet that I'll be using in all of my drafts
36:21this summer. So, make sure you check it out in the description in the comment section down below. The basementdraftguide.com. This is a
36:26onetime purchase draft day product during the season. If you want my weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, waiverwire article, start sid streams
36:34every Sunday, any of my dynasty content, that's on the Patreon, patreon.com/rronwart. If you're on the Patreon, you get the basement draft
36:40guide half off. If you're on the Patreon for the year and you have an annual sub, you get the draft guide for free. So, I
36:46will say if you're out there and you're on my Patreon, check out the basement draft guide. You get a big discount. But
36:51that's going to do it for us today.
36:52Appreciate you guys for watching. Leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I'll see you guys in the next one.
37:12stones like this froze.
37:18I like frozen.
