0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ronald. We all say things we don't mean in the heat of the
0:06moment. I'm sure last year after the fantasy football season wrapped up, you said, "You know what? This player screwed up my season. I'm never drafting
0:13him again." But oftent times that player ends up being a league winner the next season. We saw with Christian McCaffrey where in 2024 he was banged up in sync
0:21teams and then in 2025 he was the RB1 overall. We've seen it across the board with players last year like Travis
0:28Etienne, Chris Olive, Kyle Pittz, and George Pickkins. So, today I am going to give you nine players that I think are
0:35going to bounce back in 2026. And I am ready to get hurt and draft them again.
0:40As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and the first bounceback player that I am ready to
0:47draft again is actually a twofur. Here we are going to talk about the Raiders.
0:51We have Ashton Genty and Brock Bowers.
0:53Last year they were around the one-two turn, probably like late first, early second round picks. They are here once again. Ashton Genty is the RB5 off the
1:04board going at the one-two turn. Brock Bowers is the tight end one off the board going in the late second as both
1:11Raiders are players that we are paying premiums for again and I don't mind it.
1:17Here is why we have Clint Kubak coming in taking the reigns of this offense away from Chip Kelly and finally getting some infrastructure
1:26here of what should be a better and more improved offense. We get Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins. We get of course Clint Kubak coming over. They
1:35bring Tyler Linderbomb, the best offensive line free agent signing. And we just have a lot to like about these Clint Kubak offenses. Of course, he was
1:44the offensive coordinator last year for the Seahawks. They win a Super Bowl.
1:47Their offense greatly outperforms expectations. And I am expecting that again here for the Raiders offense instead of the Seahawks offense because
1:56when we look at the implied points per game from the Las Vegas look ahead lines, of course, Las Vegas is down there 28th overall.
2:06But we have to take stands in fantasy football. We have to go against the grain. And this is one where I think
2:10that Vegas is just dead wrong. we have here from Ryan Heath. Clint Kubak oftent times gets his offenses to overperform despite poorly projected offensive
2:20lines. We saw it with the Saints. We saw it with the Seahawks. Then we also have his quarterbacks that yes, he had Brock
2:27Perie for a year, but then also Derek Carr and Sam Darnold from Scott Barrett here over the last three seasons. The
2:33Clint Kubak quarterback has been third in EPA per dropback and second in adjusted net yards per attempt over the last three seasons. He maximizes
2:42offensive line play. He maximizes quarterback play. And to me, that's enough to buy back into the Raiders even with them being more expensive than they
2:52should be. Just given where their offense is implied, we are once again going back to the well on Raiders in the
2:57top two rounds. Even though this is a poorly projected offense with Ashton Genty, he comes into year two and he looks a lot to me like year two Bejian
3:05Robinson where Bejon was a disappointment in year one and then in year two plus points per game score as a clear win in the back half of the first
3:15round. Ashen Genty, of course, brutal situation last year from Ryan Heath here. He wasn't hit behind the line on 51.5% of his attempts, the fewest of 45
3:24qualifiers. But when he wasn't hit behind the line of scrimmage, and he actually had good blocking and clear runways, he was the best of 45
3:33qualifiers and yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles force per attempt, and the eighth best stuff rate. This is somebody that when the
3:40blocking is there, he's much better. And again, I think Kubak is going to get the most from this offensive line. And then
3:48we can even go a step further to Brock Bowers, who I think just comes out here and sets the league on fire. The
3:55touchdown upside isn't crazy high with Brock Bowers. We'll kind of switch back and forth here. Ashton Genty is somebody that on this team should be the Bellcow.
4:03Sure, Mike Washington is there, but this isn't going to be the Charbanet Kenneth Walker split. Genty is the clear workhorse bellcow. This is somebody last
4:11year who had the seventh most receptions among running backs. He had 55 receptions as a rookie behind only McAffrey, Bejan Gibbs, Kenneth Gainwell,
4:19Chase Brown, and Devon Achan. I think that he can improve on that number this year. And then the big thing is that
4:26even if their implied total is lower and they're not going to score as many touchdowns as say the Seahawks did last
4:31year, Kubak is a guy who last year the Seahawks were tied for the first highest rush rate inside the 20 and the fifth
4:39highest rush rate inside the 10. Once he once he gets in close in its scoring position, he is going to hand off the
4:47football to the running back and that is going to create more goal line opportunities for Ashton Genty.
4:52Naturally, with Brock Bowers, I think that he's going to be more of a PPR upside type of play where this is from
4:57Ryan Paganetti last year. uh he was working for the Raiders as a coaching analytics assistant where I believe very much like Pete Carol when he was going
5:08to be debating fourth down decisions or uh anything along those lines. Should I challenge this play? Whatever. He would be radioing in to Ryan Paganetti. He
5:16said he had a goal last year in Las Vegas of the single season record for catches and targets for Brock Bowers
5:22before the week one injury. Of course, he gets that PCL knee injury derailed his entire season. Same thing happened to Drake London. Same thing happened to
5:30Ricky Pearl. These PCL injuries, I think, are one of the quieter overlooked injuries in football where, okay, ACL will take a guy out for a
5:40while, Achilles take a guy out for a season. PCL is one of these injuries where it takes you out for a few weeks,
5:45you come back and you're just not the same player. Uh, and you'd almost be better off just not playing. But with
5:51Brock Bowers, we can go all the way back to his rookie season in terms of players through their first 29 career games. The
5:57only players to catch more passes than him through 29 games is OBJ, Puka, and Michael Thomas. It's a pretty absurd list to be a part of. And he is somebody
6:07that is closer in efficiency to Aman Ross St. Brown than he is Jarvis Landry.
6:10So, he's not just a low AOT PPR merchant. He is a legitimate receiving threat. And he is going to play slot
6:17receiver for this team. Right. Right.
6:18Where JSN just thrived last year. It feels crazy to say, but I do think Bowowers can kind of be Kubak's JSN on
6:28this team with the options around him.
6:31We're talking Jaylen Naylor, we're talking Trey Tucker, then Jack Besh, and then of course Ashen Genty in the backfield, but Bowowers is going to
6:37dominate this passing game. And I trust Kubak to get the most out of the per target and per reception efficiency. On
6:44top of that, sure, you can say, well, Kubak is great, but who's throwing him the football? What I'll say is one, I'm
6:51pretty confident that Fernando Mendoza from day one is going to be a solid in the pocket passer. And then also Kirk
6:58Cousins, who isn't fantastic, did have the stretch last year where everyone says, "Oh, well Kyle Pitts was only good because Drake London was out." Well,
7:04still he had 16.2 points per game in eight games with Kyle Pitts. The Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pittz marriage. So yes,
7:11it coincided with Drake London going down, but Kurt Cousins was the quarterback who got Kyle Pittz to be an absolute monster on a,008
7:21touchdown 106 reception pace. Brock Bower's career points per game is 15.2.
7:26Kurt Cousinson's game games with Kyle Pitts last year got Kyle Pitts up to 16.2. So I think that that kind of
7:32highlights the ceiling for Brock Bowers, even with a quarterback as bad as Kurt Cousins. Now, our next player that I am
7:40ready to get hurt again drafting is AJ Brown. Now, he's probably the least true bust on this list. He is going in the second round as the wide
7:50receiver 7 over on Underdog. Of course, as always, you can use promo code Ron.
7:54When you play $5 on Underdog, you get $50 in sight credits to go use over there on their pick lobby. They have the
8:01best ball mania drafts that we're doing here every single week. And then once August comes around, you guys know how it is. We will be streaming drafts every
8:08single day. Make sure you're drafting with us over on Underdog. I'll have links to that in the description and the comment section down below. Now, with AJ
8:15Brown, here's what I'll say. He I'll be honest.
8:19Let's just have a heartto-he heart here.
8:20All right. Honestly, I just wanted to talk about AJ Brown. I will say he wasn't awful last year, but 14.7 points
8:27for him was his lowest total since 2021.
8:30So, I I would categorize him as like a small miss. I did put a poll out on Twitter.
8:36He was majority said was a bust, but very close, right? 49% said a bust, 45% he was fine. Nobody thought he was a
8:44stud. So, I would say that he was like a a small miss is what I would say, right?
8:48Like you draft him in the second round, he probably didn't sink your team, but you didn't draft AJ Brown last year and
8:53come away from it as like a positive experience. Like he was fine. He wasn't great, but I think that this is the year
8:59to buy back in. And this is somebody that I have been pounding the table for for years as one of the most talented
9:06per route wide receivers of his generation. I I don't say that lightly.
9:10Held back by offensive environment. He has had the quarterbacks Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tanahill, Jaylen Herz in very runheavy, low passing volume offenses, right? You
9:21think back to Derrick Henry on the Titans and then the Saquon Barkley and Jaylen Herz uh one-two punch on the Eagles and that resulted him despite
9:29winning a Super Bowl on an offense that was highowered for a couple of those years never having more than seven total
9:35touchdowns in a given season because of these offenses because of the low passing volume. But you break it down and he's just absurd. This is looking at
9:45wide receivers to have 400 or more receptions before turning 30 years old.
9:50So essentially a wide receivers's prime.
9:52Here is your list sorted by yards per target, which is similar to yards per out run. It's just when you are throwing
9:58the ball, how efficient are you on a yardage basis? And it's a crazy list. It is Jordan Nelson, it's Michael Irvin,
10:05it's AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, Deshawn Jackson, Jerry Rice, Tyreek Hill in terms of perarget efficiency in a wide receivers's prime.
10:13His career yards per out run even with the down year last year is 2.55 yards per out run. That would have been a top
10:21five number last year over his entire career on a per routeout basis, on a perarget basis. Nobody is more efficient
10:31than AJ Brown. Genuine Hall of Fame level efficiency. And the Patriots were fourth in passing yards last year. AJ Brown, you could say, well, he wasn't
10:40efficient last year, sure, but his target earning was still there up there at 27% targets per out run in the top
10:46nine in a pretty solid list and still cleared 10% first downs per out run and still at an 8.4 yards per target. So,
10:53still right there with Aman Rashane Brown, right there with Drake London, just not quite the AJ Brown historical standard. I think he can bounce back to
11:01that this year. And then the exciting part, right, when we talk about the target domination on a per route basis, the awesome efficiency, it's always been
11:09on a low amount of routes in a low passing volume offense. But I think this year, even though we had the Patriots
11:16last year at 26 in pass attempts and 29th in seconds per snap. So they were slow and they were runheavy, but they were
11:25killing teams oftent times just in garbage time in the fourth quarter. Just kind of salting games away. We're going to get a more competitive game script
11:34this year. We have Drake May in another year with Josh McDaniels. already been talking about over here with Andrew Callahan saying that the Drake May
11:44offense with Josh McDaniels has been practicing some hurry up. This was a team that was almost dead last in no huddle rate last year. Can we get more
11:53no huddle? And then they were a team that wanted to pass the ball last year.
11:57They were six to neutral pass rate. It's just that they weren't in many neutral situations, right? You're talking win probability 20 to 80%.
12:05A lot of times the win probability was higher than 80% for the Patriots in these games. So I think when games are
12:11more competitive, Drake May another year in this system getting some trust here to go uptempo, to go no huddle, all of a sudden we're
12:20in a spot where this could be the most passing yards, the most pass attempts, most passing touchdowns in terms of offensive environment that Adrian Brown
12:28has ever seen. And I get that there's some injury concern, there's some age concern, but I really do think that this
12:33is the the one year to make this bet where he's still in the prime of his career. I think that we're going to see
12:38kind of the honeymoon phase here where yes, AJ Brown is on the diva side of things, right? He is definitely on your
12:44uh Terrell Owens, OBJ, Stfane Diggs spectrum of moodier wide receivers. But I think that this is going to be a good one-year thing. we
12:54saw with Stfan Diggs and Josh Allen. I think that that could be AJ Brown ceiling here. Now, shout out to Tom
13:00Chris. If you guys are OGs of the channel, I want to say two to three football seasons to go. I would have Tom
13:06Christrist on every week to talk about the injuries around the NFL. Uh and he kind of broke down what he's expecting
13:11for AJ Brown. Follow him on Twitter, fantasy injury t. Uh he said that AJ Brown, yes, has some stuff going on with
13:17his knees, but it's not necessarily as scary as it sounds. Yes, there's going to be draining fluid, but he can still
13:22keep producing at a high level like he's been the last couple of years. Hamstring injury is more concerning.
13:27Bottom line, though, is that yes, there's added injury risk, but his career is far from over. He still has elite upside, and if the market
13:34discounts him too much, I'm interested.
13:35So, essentially, what he's saying, I've just seen this narrative going around that like his knee is an issue, his hamstring is an issue, he's over the
13:42hump at this point. I I'm just My take here is I'm not telling you to buy him in Dynasty. I just think that 2026 is
13:48really the year where everything comes together for AJ Brown. Nothing is promised after then, but I I have to see it through in 2026 with AJ Brown in the
13:56second round just as somebody that everything that he's done his entire career is be somebody held back by environment. And I'm not going to bet
14:04against him when he finally gets attached to a quarterback who just finished second in MVP voting in his second season. Then we have another wide
14:12receiver. I like to bounce back here.
14:14Tara McLaren. He is going off the board in round four as the wide receiver 23.
14:19He's actually somebody that I'm starting to move up the rankings myself. I was shocked at how good he was last year on
14:26a per route basis. Of course, small sample, right? We're talking 245 routes.
14:30Luther Burden gets all the shade in the world for only running 230 rounds. So, just keep that in perspective. He only
14:35ran 245 routes last year. But despite only seven games from Jaden Daniels, despite kind of a dysfunctional offense, despite Washington really having a lost
14:43season last year, Terry McCorm was one of 10 wide receivers and tight ends last year with 200 or more routes run, 20%
14:50plus targets per out run. So that's just, you know, your target earning ability on a per route basis. 10 plus yards per target. That is what are you
14:56doing when you get targeted? He is efficient there. And then a 10% plus first downs per out run. Are you actually moving the chains and helping
15:03your offense? 13.5% only behind JSN and Puka Nakua on this list. He was really solid last year just in a really bad
15:12situation. I think he's going to have a full bounce back this year. We are going to get a healthy Jaden Daniels, a
15:18healthy Terry McCor. People forget that Terry McLaren was banged up last year.
15:23And then also, I think that a contributing factor to that was that he was a hold out before the season.
15:27Remember, he was like holding out for a contract. He then gets the contract, but he didn't play or really do any of the
15:33practice or preseason stuff with the team. So then week one comes around and then all of a sudden he just wasn't
15:39ready. So I think that this season things bounce back and then I'm very excited to see what happens with David Blau. Sadly didn't get to talk about
15:46David Blau with Ryan Heath. If you haven't seen the Ryan Heath episode, make sure you check it out. We talk about all the new play callers we could
15:52get to in an hour 20. Uh if you want to hear his thoughts about David Blow, make sure you check out his article talking
15:59over all of the new play callers. But with David Blau, he comes from honestly he's like the first Ben Johnson tree guy
16:07to get a big-time job. He was with Ben Johnson at early on in his career and then he's on this commander staff and then he gets
16:17hired and kind of promoted from quarterback coach to offensive coordinator. pretty much getting promoted ahead of
16:27Cliff Kingsbury where he was somebody that he played on the Lions and that's why he would be like a Ben Johnson tree
16:34type of guy because he played on the Lions where Ben Johnson was like his coach while he was like the backup
16:40quarterback or whatever. So, it's tough to pinpoint what his tree is, but that's where people are pointing to that he kind of has the Ben Johnson philosophy
16:47nailed down here. And with McLaren, we should get a lot more favorable alignment here. This is from Ryan Heath where Cliff Kingsbury has done this
16:56thing dating back to DeAndre Hopkins on the Cardinals where he just has his perimeter receiver lining up on the left side every single time. And even though
17:03McLaren's per round metrics were awesome last year, they were even better on the right side of the field. Just showcasing that if you can just move them around
17:09the formation, that's a big deal. Uh the the static onestop shot alignment uh just doesn't work in the modern NFL. So,
17:17if we can get Terry McLaren from this downfield X field stretcher to now somebody move all around the formation and pepper with
17:24targets, that becomes a monster upside bet in fantasy football. This is really well summarized by Adam Levitan here.
17:34Should be more two tight end sets with David Blau, of course, coming from that Ben Johnson tree. Uh after Terry McLaren
17:40in terms of competition for targets, it is Antonio Williams, it's Trayon Burks, it's Luke McAffrey, it's Chico Conqua, who I like Chico Conqua, but he's not
17:51touching Terry McLaren. And then like Rashad White out of the backfield, this is going to be Terry McLaren's offense in terms of through the air. Uh David
17:58Bla has pledged to move McLaren all over the formation unlike Kingsbury. Uh Jay and Daniel should be healthy this year.
18:04The thing is going to be built around how do we get Terry 10 targets a game was a direct quote from Blau. Commander
18:09defense remains among league worst. So we really should get a step forward from this offense. This offensive line is taking a step forward where of course
18:17you have Laramie Tonsel. You have Josh Connorly who they spent big on in the draft a year or two ago. All taking a
18:23step forward for this offense. So there's a lot to like here. I just think that I want to bet on Washington to
18:29bounce back. McLaren's the wide receiver one there. He is a perfect wide receiver two, wide receiver three this season.
18:36Then we can talk about the Buccaneers offense. We have Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, two players who were brutal last year. Godwin didn't kill you, but Bucky
18:45Irving did. Bucky Irving was a second round pick. Uh, and he ends up with a shoulder injury and then his timeline
18:50was just false the entire year. It was like, "Oh yeah, it felt like for 10 weeks straight. It was like, oh yeah, By
18:55Irving will be back back next week.
18:56Don't even worry about it." And then he just never came back really. uh to any real effect on the field. But I do like
19:05buying this offense to bounce back this year. We just talked about achuka in our last video. I like all the Bucks if I'm
19:11being honest. I like Baker Mayfield, like Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, Kenneth Gainwell, Mechco Ibuka, even Kotton late round on underdog. I don't mind them at
19:19all because this offense is projected right now by Vegas to be the 15th highest scoring offense with the fifth best offensive line. Tristan Worfs
19:28entered the year banged up last year.
19:29Their offensive line also had a ton of injuries and turnover as well. This was an offense that last year, weeks 1
19:35through six, was seventh in EPA per play, and then from week seven on was 25th in EPA per play. They went off a
19:40cliff. There's pictures of Baker Mayfield's arm just being purple from this new quarterback series. Everybody was banged up between Godwin, between
19:47Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Ibuka had his own hamstring injury. Baker was banged up all year. The O line was banged up
19:53all year. Let's get healthy. Let's retool. Go into another year. And we did talk about with Ryan Heath, but Zack Robinson coming here is a
20:03underrated massive deal. Uh he is somebody that over the last 5 years in terms of play callers, he has had the
20:10second highest during snap motion rate.
20:12And that's a big deal because when we look at the quarterbacks that have had the most to gain from during snap motion
20:17rate in terms of adjusted net yards per attempt added, Baker Mayfield is here second on this list. So, this is going
20:23to juice the passing game efficiency for this entire offense, getting guys in motion. And somebody that is going to get a lot of benefit from that is Chris
20:31Godwin in the slot. Now, Godwin, it's up in the air. Who he is at this point in time, he is what, age 30 plus at this
20:39point. The last time we saw him really play was in 2024 where he had 19.7 points per game and then got hurt with a
20:46very similar injury to the Judkins and Scatabo injury where his ankle I think it was like an ankle dislocation or like
20:50a broken tibia fibula. That injury is brutal. That's honestly I'd put that right with the uh PCL as like it's not
20:57an ACL or an Achilles so nobody really thinks it's the same thing, but uh really brutal injury to come back from
21:02last year. Largely irrelevant in fantasy football.
21:07I definitely like IA better, but the way that this offense is going to operate is I assume that McMillan or Ted Hurst will
21:13be the sacrificial X kind of running downfield routes not getting used a ton.
21:17Uh, and then we're going to have likely Godwin and Ibuka switching around between flanker slot Z probably more so Godwin in the slot with Ibuka at the Z
21:26spot. And what that does is I hate to pattern match like this, but Zack Robinson of course was on staff for the
21:32Cooper Cup monster 2021 out of the slot year. And then even last year, Drake London 19 points per game before the PCL
21:38injury, mainly out of the slot. Zack Robinson slot receivers are probably a good bet to make. Godwin, it just comes down to where he's at at this point in
21:47his career. Can he give it one more go and give us 17 plus points game as a true league winner or even just, you
21:54know, 14 plus points per game as like a high-end wide receiver, too? I think that's all in the range of outcomes for
21:59him as the wide receiver 41 off the board. And then I still like Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving to me feels a lot
22:04like James Cook last year. It's not super clear, right? James Cook, good offense, good offensive line, squeezed uh on the goal line by Josh Allen and
22:13like Ray Davis, on passing downs by Ty Johnson. Similar idea here where you're getting squeezed by Shawn Tucker on the goal line, you're getting squeezed by
22:20Kenneth Gainwell through the air. But again, I just want to bet on this offense. And Bucky Irving, you're drafting as the RB24. just somebody that
22:27is going your RB2 spot, maybe even in your flex spot, and you don't have to rely on uh to kind of like save your
22:34season. But I think it's a massive upside swing that in year three he could truly break out, have his first RB1
22:40point per game type season. And I think a big contributor for that is yes, these could go to Kenneth Gainwell, but they
22:46could also go to Bucky Irving. Largest shares of a team's design targets over the past two seasons combined. Bees on Robinson at 49% on this list. Of course,
22:56the last two years was with Zack Robinson. Zack Robinson, similar to Liam Cohen, who I know we're connecting a lot of dots here, but I think the report is
23:03that Zack Robinson's been getting on the phone with Liam Cohen. Liam Cohen, why we really liked Toutin last year is that
23:10Liam Cohen is a big proponent of designing targets and using the screen game to your running back's benefits.
23:16Even though it wasn't huge and ETN didn't even hit 40 plus catches, he still had, I want to say, five touchdowns through the air inside the 20
23:24as like a red zone screen game specialist. Uh, I think Zack Robinson could do something similar. I think one of Gainwell or Bucky Irving are going to
23:34get peppered with these designed screen style targets. If that's Bucky Irving, he could just absolutely go crazy even without getting the full-time role just
23:43within this offensive environment. If you remember back to his rookie season when he was fully healthy, had some of the best mackles for his breakaway run
23:50rate, all of that across the board. And as of right now, I am pretty positive on his injury outlook. This is from Tom
23:57Christ as well. Uh Bucky has participated in some degree in OTAAS and appears to be on track for camp. I'd be
24:03shocked that the shoulder surgery shows any setbacks during camp and very surprised if he's not full go in week one. Shoulder surgery should be stable,
24:10unlikely to be a big issue. The foot's a mild concern, but not nearly enough for me to meaningfully downgrade him in
24:15reddraft or dynasty. So, for now, he's fallen where in the pre-draft stuff, he was like a top 40 pick. He's fallen
24:22because of pessimism around the injury, but I think is literally a fringe RB2.
24:27He makes a lot of sense as somebody that could easily be a top 12 point per game scorer this season. Then we have Lamar
24:33Jackson. I'm coming back on. He's somebody that if you watch the Yuri at league mates with the BDG guys, I drafted him first overall in a superflex
24:39league. uh and he ended up killing me.
24:41This is somebody that was dealing with injuries all of last year and things just didn't go right for Lamar Jackson, but I like him to bounce back this year
24:48as a fifth round pick as the QB2 off the board. He is somebody that just has an unmatched ceiling in fantasy. He is the
24:55only quarterback with two seasons of 25 plus points per game. And it's one thing to kind of get what Josh Allen did last
25:02year where he was like 20 21 points per game. That's a that's a good plus, right? Like that's that definitely raises the floor of your team. But what
25:10Lamar Jackson can do is he can rival win rates and just like overall season championship rates with the wide receiver, running back, tight end league
25:19winners. If you go back to 2024 when he had that 25 plus point per game season, I looked at the ESPN championship teams,
25:26the only players on 20% or more, so one in every five championship teams on ESPN fantasy football in 2024 was Jamir
25:34Gibbs, Jamar Chase, and Lamar Jackson.
25:37That's the kind of impact he can have in a given year. So, if you can get a little bit of a discount after last year
25:42where you have to take him in round three, now he's somebody going in round five on a place like underdog. I assume
25:47even in home reddraft manage league, he's probably slipping more to that three, four turn like fourth round area.
25:52I'd still be fine taking him there. And I am very excited about this new coaching change as well. Declan Doyle also a Ben Johnson guy, but he also
26:00comes from the Denver Broncos where he was with Shawn Peyton and the Broncos in 2024. it comes to the Bears last season
26:07and these are two teams that are top 10 in play action rate. Lamar Jackson the last year or two hasn't been a super
26:13high play action rate guy despite having one of the best passer ratings with play action. He was literally the QB1 by
26:21Jacob Gibbs research here in passer rating from play action. If we can get more play action, more marriage of uh kind of under center Derrick Henry,
26:28Lamar Jackson, uh things get very exciting there. And I know we talked about yards for target before. Derrick Henry not known as a receiver, but if
26:35you look over the last three or so seasons, the leader at running back for yards per target is Derk Henry. Now, of
26:41course, it's a small sample, but we can get some passing game efficiency if we get Derrick Henry in the screen game,
26:47which has been the Whispers from the Ravens beat so far. Then we will talk about Marvin Harrison Jr., who I didn't
26:54expect at all to end up being one of my guys this year, but he absolutely has been. I've been drafting a ton of him.
27:00Of course, all of these players are pushed up on my rankings. I just dropped a new rankings update this week. You can
27:06find that over on the Patreon.
27:08patreon.com/ronu.
27:09I'll have that in the link in the description and the comment section down below. But Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn't terrible last year, but just I have him
27:16as a bustier or like a bounceback just because it feels like he's done nothing but disappoint. He was the prince who
27:21was promised. You drafted him ahead of Malik Neighbors as a rookie. Neighbors goes crazy. Marv is terrible. Last year, he's okay. He's the wide receiver, 26 in
27:29points per game through week 10. and then he gets hurt and then he comes back and Michael Wilson kind of took his
27:33lunch money. He did come back and have 14.9 points per game in his three games with Jacobe Brassette, but still it's
27:39like a three-game sample on not sustainable passing volume, but it's still something. I I will say I think that Mar it's just unfair that his name
27:49is Marvin Harrison. His dad's a Hall of Famer. He has been talked about as the best wide receiver prospect since Jamar
27:55Chase. and he was all those things and he has been disappointing but he hasn't been as bad as you would think. We look
28:01at the per route numbers for the entire 2024 class, right? So that's neighbors, Bowers, Lad Mani, Brian Thomas. We're all chasing this year's year three
28:10breakout like we saw with JSN last year.
28:13And you look at Marv, right? Look at the points per game, targets per run, yards per run, first downs per run. Why I have
28:18this? That's production, your target earning on a per out basis, your efficiency on a perout basis, and then are you actually helping your offense
28:24move the chains and get successful plays on offense. Marvin Harrison Jr. is green across the board. He's ahead of Xavier Worthy, ahead of Roman Dunes, head of
28:33Ricky Pieraw, and he's really not that far off of your Lad Manis and Brian Thomas' of the world. He's clearing 20%
28:38targets per out run, 1.6 yards per run is not terrible. 7.9% yard uh first downs per run is not terrible. At the
28:45very least, clearing 20% targets per out run tells me that he can just command volume. That is a real skill in the NFL.
28:51He is getting open. He is commanding volume. And I think now we can see him take a real step as a year three
28:58breakout candidate this season. We of course have this from Ryan Heath, fantasy breakouts by career year. Year three is of course king. This could be
29:08sort of like a breakout video as well where I like Bucky Irving as a breakout candidate, Brock Bowers, Ashton Genty, Marvin Harrison Jr. Uh, and this is a
29:16team that right now, even though last year their passing volume was unsustainable, they're still a team that is projected for the first most drop
29:23backs, the first most pass attempts. So, while the touchdown upside's likely not there for Marvin Harrison, the PPR upside is. He also had some underlying
29:32metrics that are solid. We talked about the targets per out run. We also came in with the 80th percentile win rate versus
29:37man coverage on reception perception.
29:3977th percentile win rate versus press coverage on reception perception. Those are strong numbers in isolation.
29:46And you have to remember as well when we look at a screenshot like this, he has played his entire career on
29:54Hall of Fame difficulty. There has been nothing. There has been no uh let's let's use Marvin Harrison Jr. in motion or in the screen game or anything like
30:03that. has been you line up on the line in press coverage, go beat the guy on the boundary and get your target 14
30:09yards downfield. That has been his career to this point. And I think the most exciting part about Marvin Harrison is that we've seen him be able to create
30:16volume uh and perform you know in a fine level like he's light green across the board here and now I think that we have a real opportunity
30:25with Mike Laflur new offensive play caller coming in says that Marvin Harrison Jr. profiles as an exceiver, but they want to move playmakers around
30:33in this offense. He said, "It's our job to unlock Marvin Harrison Jr. So, now if we get him in the slot and moved around
30:39and have him going with motion and more crossers and we could get a lot more imagination with Marvin Harrison's usage and I think that that could unlock a
30:48breakout where he does finish as like a top 24 wide receiver. The passing volume will be there. Yes, there's some uncertainty between Carson Beck and
30:55Jacobe Brassette, and yes, Trey McBride's already there and Michael Wilson and Jeremy or Jeremiah Love, but this is a talent I want to bet on. I
31:02think the passing volume is going to be there for multiple guys to hit in this offense. And then I also think even if
31:07Carson Beck comes in, sure, Carson Beck's not great, but I do think that he can still be in the confines of this
31:13offense, if they're still going to be like top 10 in pass attempts per game with Carson Beck, I don't think it's a
31:18death sentence. Uh the last bounceback candidate that we'll talk about today is Ricky Piolaw. He's going at the 89 turn uh as the wide receiver 45 off the
31:28board. And very similar to Marvin Harrison Jr. I think that there's going to be if you guys remember this was a
31:33huge wide receiver class. Neighbors and Marvin Harrison were generational talents. Odun another top 10 pick. You can go even further than that. Brian
31:41Thomas, Xavier Worthy, uh Ricky Pierol goes in the first round. Leg get ladi keon Coleman. one of the more in terms
31:47of like wide receivers drafted in the top 50 picks. It's up there for one of the most ever. I think we're going to
31:52get some hits from this range. Ricky Pieraw didn't look good here. When you look at his entire career, right, going back to 2024, but if you isolate for
31:59just his 2025 last year on a per out basis, he made this list that Terry McLaren was on in terms of 200 plus
32:06routes, 20% plus targets per out run, 10 plus yards per target, 10% plus first downs per run. On a per out basis last
32:12year, he was solid. He was somebody as well like Brock Bowers who had the PCL injury. This is from Kylem FF showing
32:20that preCLL injury adding the week 15 post buy game as well he was wide receiver three in yards per game, wide
32:27receiver four in yards per route run, top 12 in points per game, top 12 in uh expected fantasy points per game, wide
32:32receiver two in average separation score, wide receiver one in route win rate, and then all of it fell off a cliff with the PCL. Now, of course,
32:39there's splits on and off, whether that was with George KD, without George KD, with Joan Jennings, or without Jawan Jennings. But still, there are things
32:48here that when he was healthy and on the field where he really produced and yes, while I'm drafting Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans, this is a team that
32:56outside of Ricky Pierceall going into his year three season, it is Mike Evans coming off an injury riddled season. It is Christian McCaffrey coming off 350
33:05plus touches. It is George KD coming off a torn Achilles. all these guys in their age 30 plus seasons. It wouldn't be
33:12shocking if Ricky Pieraw was kind of the last man standing and the best most trustworthy week-toeek option on this team through the air. So, he's somebody
33:21I'm drafting more so now than ever. Even though last year, I know the title of this video or like the idea of this
33:27video is a guys who burned me last year.
33:29I wasn't drafting Ricky Piolaw last year, but I'm drafting him this year uh with full confidence. So, that is, I believe, nine players that I think are
33:38primed to bounce back. If they burned you last year, you got to just wipe it away and go all in this year. As always,
33:43if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys in the next one.
33:56Oh [music] yeah. [music and singing] Stones like this froze ice.
34:07I my body like I'm frozen.
