0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here
0:01back in the video. It's Friday. Time to
0:02go over my favorite underdog plays this
0:04week. Seven and five last week. Not
0:06awful, but we can do better moving
0:08forward. First up, we've got this Browns
0:10at Bucks game. I know that doesn't sound
0:12very exciting, but I have two picks in
0:15that one. Number one, Casey Conception,
0:17higher than 31 12 receiving yards. Bucky
0:20Irving higher than 61 a half rushing
0:23yards. I think people sort of know how
0:25this game is going to play out. Buck
0:27Irving probably gonna be playing with
0:29the lead, right? You're probably going
0:30to have the Bucks doing relatively
0:32decent early on. I don't think it's
0:34going to be the exact same thing as the
0:35Jaguars last week. The Jaguars have a
0:38stronger defense than the Bucks and they
0:40have, in my opinion, a better offense,
0:43but that game, we don't need that game
0:44script, right? That game was completely
0:46over at halftime. The Bucks didn't have
0:48to throw the ball a single time in the
0:50second half. Of course, they threw the
0:51ball, but you know, like they didn't
0:52have to do any passing in the second
0:54half. I don't think it's going to be
0:56that level of blowout, but the Bucks
0:58should win this one fairly easily. They
1:00should probably win by a score or two,
1:03probably in that general like 10 to 13
1:05range. Uh, and so basically, we're going
1:07to get a lot of running in the second
1:08half. Bucky Irving was close to featured
1:10last week. I mean, they were really only
1:12using him on the ground. He looked
1:14fantastic. Uh, Kenny Gainwell definitely
1:16had a lower role or a lesser role than I
1:19thought he would have. Um, it will
1:20depend on the game script. when the
1:22Bucks get down a ton. Of course, we're
1:24going to see Gainwell in the receiving
1:26game. But Bucky Irving again looked
1:28really, really good. Clear early lead. I
1:31think he maintains that role as long as
1:33he continues to look good. And then
1:35unless this game turns into like you
1:37know a 20 24 point uh you know blowout
1:41win for the Bucks, as long as it's
1:43staying relatively competitive, Buck
1:45Irving should be out there. And so it's
1:48unlikely that the Bucks just like throw
1:50for 400 yards and four touchdowns, don't
1:52run the ball at all, then it's a blowout
1:54and Bucky doesn't get there. The Jaguars
1:56can kind of do that. The Jaguars don't
1:58have that good of a run run game, so
2:01they can really just throw the ball
2:02around, get up with the passing game,
2:04and then in the second half it's more
2:05blowout run. Uh I don't think that
2:06happens to the Bucks. So I think Bucky
2:07Irving is a great pick this week. And
2:09then Conception, you're just playing
2:10that on the other side. 31 and a half. I
2:13mean, um, you had Boston definitely the
2:15lead in routes last week. Um, but he
2:18runs the harder routes on the outside.
2:20He needs to hit that really long play to
2:22hit, uh, his receiving yardage there.
2:24Uh, Conception is going to be much more,
2:26you know, screen passes, end of rounds
2:29won't count for us, but of course that
2:30helps you in regular fantasy, but a guy
2:32that they're going to scheme usage to,
2:33get the ball in his hands quickly. Uh,
2:35and so, especially when they get down,
2:36when they have to pass it, it's
2:38unfortunate that Deshawn Watson is still
2:39the quarterback this week. I think when
2:41they move to Shidra Sanders, it's going
2:42to open up a little bit. Not that much
2:44cuz he's also not that good, but 31 a
2:46half for a player as talented as he is.
2:47Uh for a player who's definitely going
2:49to get a couple schemed looks and could
2:51easily see his usage ramp up from last
2:53week and it was already very strong last
2:55week. He wasn't their leader in routes,
2:57but target sharewise, uh he was their
2:59leader. He was a very good player. Um
3:01commanding looks. Again, they've talked
3:03all offseason about how they want to get
3:04the ball into his hands, so I like
3:06higher than 31 and a half for him. Next
3:08one, a much more exciting game. Vikings
3:11at Bears. Um, we saw this play out last
3:15week where the Bears have an incredible
3:17offense. It really does seem like this
3:19offense has taken a step forward in year
3:21two under Ben Johnson, but the defense
3:24is not good. Bryce Young looked
3:26fantastic last last week and uh Bryce
3:29Young does typically not look fantastic.
3:31So, the Bears, like every single week,
3:33going to be live for a shootout. As long
3:35as the other side is half competent on
3:38offense, you're going to be able to put
3:39up points against the Bears. And then
3:41the Bears are good enough to put up
3:42points against anyone. So, going to be
3:44really fun uh watching Bears games this
3:46year. Uh but I say Carson Wentz higher
3:48than 216 and a half passing yards.
3:50Theoretically, Kyler could play. So, I
3:53don't really know uh what to make of
3:55that there. I think he's going to have
3:57to be cleared on like Friday, today uh
3:59or Saturday. So, I think we're going to
4:01know relatively soon if he is playing.
4:03If he is, I would just slot him in here.
4:05I don't know what they would do with his
4:07passing numbers, but I view them very
4:08similar. Like, I don't think Carson
4:10Wentz and Kyler are like going to be all
4:12that different for passing. So, just
4:15whoever the quarterback is, put them in
4:16here. Uh, so right now it's Carson Wentz
4:18higher than 216 and a half passing
4:20yards. Justin Jefferson higher than 77
4:22and a half receiving yards. Jordan
4:24Addison higher than 35 and a half
4:25receiving yards. And then I am going
4:27back to Coulson Leland higher than 48
4:29and a half receiving yards. Uh really
4:32this is just saying, you know, there's
4:34also no Jordan Mason in this one. So
4:36it's a little bit more likely that the
4:37Vikings do choose to attack this game
4:39through the air. Of course they have
4:41Aaron Jones. Um Claybourne might get
4:43some run. I think DJ Dallas got
4:45elevated. But like this is not a
4:49situation where you're going to have,
4:51you know, this great offense on the
4:52other side and you're just pounding the
4:54rock with Aaron Jones 30 times. Like
4:57they know that Aaron Jones can't handle
4:5930 rush attempts. They don't trust these
5:01other backs. And so you're going to get
5:02a decent amount of drop backs for the
5:04Vikings. And if you get a lot of drop
5:05backs on the Vikings against the Bears,
5:08that should be highly efficient. And if
5:10the bears on the other side can do
5:11anything, then we should see a back and
5:13forth here and everyone should be live
5:15for hitting their higher. Um, I mean,
5:17Justin Jefferson was just hyperargeted
5:19last week. I think again, it's a one a
5:21oneweek sample. Like, you're going to
5:22have weeks where a lot of weeks probably
5:24where Justin Jefferson's the clear
5:26number one. He has, you know, 120, 130
5:28receiving yards. He looks fantastic.
5:30Everyone else is just, you know, almost
5:32a third option. There's almost not even
5:34a second. But I do think there's going
5:37to be plenty of weeks this season where
5:39Jordan Addison has a much higher target
5:40share. I think he was at like 8% last
5:42week. It's going to be higher than that.
5:44He's probably going to average around 15
5:46to 18% target share most weeks. And at
5:4935 and a half receiving yards, he can
5:51get there honestly on one reception, but
5:53he can get there on only like two
5:55receptions. Uh I think if this game
5:58plays out like I think he should go
5:59higher than his projection there. Uh,
6:02and then obviously if you've got
6:03Jefferson going higher, if you've got
6:05Addison going higher, it makes it pretty
6:07darn likely that the quarterback's going
6:08to be there as well. It is difficult
6:11picking on the uh Bears side just
6:13because the Vikings have a great
6:15defense. Now, the Bears at least get to
6:17play home. So, that's a positive, right?
6:18Uh you're not going into uh the Vikings
6:21um into Minnesota. That's a very very
6:23difficult environment to play in. Of
6:25course, we saw the Packers hit last
6:28week, but they hit on big plays, you
6:29know, consistently. like the Packers
6:31were not continually putting up yards.
6:33It was a couple really big plays. Uh but
6:36you're just you're not able to be
6:37consistent against the Vikings,
6:39especially in Minnesota. I think the
6:41Bears can be more consistent because
6:42they are a better offense than the
6:43Packers. Um and it helps again that
6:46they're home. They don't have that crowd
6:47noise to contend with when they're on
6:49offense. I think again I'd go back to
6:51Coulson Love because it's very difficult
6:53to run the Vikings. Uh the Bears will do
6:55it, but they're not going to be as
6:56efficient as they were against the
6:57Panthers. And it is tougher throwing to
6:59wide receivers than tight ends. So
7:01typically teams choose to throw to their
7:03tight ends at an elevated rate against
7:05the Vikings. Uh you've also got heavy
7:08blitz. I mean there Brian Flores is a
7:11madman. Like he's going to blitz over
7:1280% of the time. Of course Ben Johnson
7:15knows that and there's kind of a
7:16cat-and- mouse game there of like okay
7:18well if he knows that like do I blitz
7:19this mod? Like I don't know really
7:21what's going to happen here. Uh but it's
7:24not maybe it's not 80% but like the
7:26Vikings are probably still going to
7:27blitz more than any team in the NFL this
7:29coming week and they're probably going
7:30to do that every single week. And so you
7:32would think that there's going to be you
7:34know some screen passes to Coulson
7:35Lavlin. There's going to be some quick
7:37targets to him. Uh that they're not
7:39going to be trying to go like play
7:40action deep downfield to Luther Burden
7:43and Roman knowing that blitzes are
7:45coming and that you're not going to have
7:47as much time. I would anticipate more
7:49short passes. Um maybe again that
7:52doesn't play out. Uh but that's what I
7:54would anticipate happening this week.
7:56And they also said kind of in postgame
7:58that like they didn't get the ball to
7:59Lovelin, but like he was the first read
8:01on a lot of plays. And it's nice at
8:02least hearing that the ball didn't
8:04necessarily go there and that's going to
8:06happen sometimes, but it's nice knowing
8:08that like they obviously still view
8:10Coulson Lovelin as a high-end player on
8:12this team, as one of the most important
8:14players on their offense. And if they
8:16are specifically scheming up plays where
8:18he is the number one read, he's going to
8:20have some very good games this season.
8:22So, I like going back to him this week.
8:25Next up, we'll do all the individual
8:27picks. So, you can do whatever you want
8:29with these. Take them solo, take them as
8:31a group, do whatever you want. Uh, first
8:33up, Jeremiah Love. Uh, is home versus
8:35the Seahawks higher than 16 and a half
8:37receiving yards. We kind of take this
8:39every single week. It's just like the
8:41running back playing against the
8:43Seahawks. The Seahawks last season
8:45allowed uh the most receptions to
8:47running back in terms of receptions over
8:49expectations. So going into the week,
8:52what is the expectation for running
8:54back? They allowed the highest boost to
8:56the position. And then last week, what
8:58was it like five or six receptions for
9:00Andre Stevenson? Like teams just say
9:02it's very difficult to run on the
9:04Seahawks. It's very difficult to throw
9:06to players against them, but it's not as
9:09difficult to throw a dump off to a
9:11running back. And so teams opt to do
9:13that. Jeremiah Love obviously the
9:14running back they're going to choose in
9:16that area. Um you know Alier is just not
9:20someone who commands targets in the
9:21receiving game. Is not someone you want
9:23to throw the ball to. I al think
9:24Jeremiah Love just every week is going
9:26to get more and more involved. He looked
9:27so good like he looked fantastic last
9:30week and that's coming off the ankle
9:31sprain. Like he's obviously the best
9:33running back they have. They are going
9:34to ramp him up slowly. They're not going
9:36to throw him out there and be like you
9:37know they have Algier. Like Algier is
9:38still a very quality running back.
9:39There's no reason to say Jeremiah Love,
9:42you're getting 25 rush attempts and
9:43seven targets. Like there's absolutely
9:45no reason to run him into the ground
9:46like that to risk any sort of setback
9:48with the ankle. Alier is totally fine on
9:51the ground, but the Seahawks have a
9:53great defense and so if they're not
9:55getting much from Alier on the ground,
9:56they're going to have love out there and
9:58he's going to be the one they use on
9:59long down distance. He's going to be the
10:01one they use uh when they're trailing.
10:02We didn't see that last week, right?
10:04They played fantastic on offense, great
10:06on defense as well. and they were
10:08winning all game. I don't know that's
10:10necessarily going to happen against the
10:12Seahawks and if it doesn't it sets up
10:13really well for Jeremiah Love to hit
10:15again only 16 and a half receiving
10:17yards. Uh next up Parker Washington. He
10:19is at the Broncos higher than 55 and a
10:22half receiving yards. They got to put
10:23some respect on Parker Washington's
10:25name. We're going to continue taking
10:27this until it's 65 and a half. Um he was
10:29the clear first option for Trevor
10:32Lawrence last week. um he went off in
10:34the first half, but then the second
10:35half, like we talked about with this uh
10:37this Bucks game first to start things
10:38off, the Jaguars just destroyed the
10:41Browns in the first half, they didn't
10:42have to do anything the second half,
10:43like they didn't have to throw the ball
10:45at all. Uh and so we didn't see that
10:48nuke happen. I mean, he had a great day.
10:49I think it was like 83 and a touchdown
10:52for Parker. Uh but like if this game was
10:54competitive, he probably has 150
10:56receiving yards last week. Um at Denver
10:58is a difficult place to play. They have
11:00very good defense overall, very good
11:02corners as well. But he did have six for
11:04145 and a touchdown against them last
11:06year. His last five weeks uh for
11:08receiving yardage totals are 145, 115,
11:1287, 107, and 83. So last week was the
11:16worst in the last five and it was 83
11:18receiving yards. He's higher than 55 and
11:20a half here. Um he's just a great
11:22player. He just looks like the best wide
11:24receiver when he's running routes out
11:25there. Trevor Lawrence targets him the
11:27most. Like it just makes so much sense
11:28that when the game is on the line, when
11:30you're playing, you know, one of the
11:31more important games, honestly, it's I
11:32know it's only week two, one of the more
11:34important games for the Jaguars this
11:35season. If they are going to contend,
11:37you know, for a top end seed in the AFC,
11:39the Broncos are supposed to be a very
11:42good team. This could have, you know,
11:43tiebreaker um uh could could tieers for
11:47record. Uh or it could just be, you
11:49know, we're competing with this team for
11:51record and whoever wins this, that's a
11:53very big difference when you look at the
11:54end of the season. So, uh, huge, huge,
11:57huge game this week. I think they're
11:59going to target Parker Washington
12:00plenty. 55 and a half. Very, very
12:02reasonable. Uh, Matthew Golden at the
12:04Jets, higher than 49 a half receiving
12:07yards. 12 targets in week one. That was
12:10incredible usage to see from him. This
12:13was also again that Vikings day. So,
12:15only the six receptions on the 12
12:17targets. Um, but, you know, really it
12:18was like 95 receiving yards to go along
12:20with that. um we're going to see higher
12:23end efficiency from him when they're not
12:25playing at the Minnesota Vikings. Uh but
12:27it's nice seeing that and I talked about
12:29this in the rankings video. That wasn't
12:30some random fluke. Like all summer they
12:33were saying Matthew Golden looks really
12:34good. He's a first round talent. He's
12:36like the most targeted player in camp.
12:38No one just wanted to hear that because
12:40everyone's frustrated and and Matthew
12:41Golden from what he did last season,
12:43which wasn't all that much. Um last
12:45season of course was much more
12:46frustrating for Packers wide receivers
12:48in general. had like a five wide
12:50receiver rotation, but we knew coming
12:52into this year, Matthew Golden's the X
12:54receiver. He's going to be out there in
12:55the field every single route that he can
12:58handle. It's going to be uh Jaden Reed
13:00that doesn't get the snaps when they go
13:01into, you know, out of 11 personnel into
13:03like 12 and 13 personnel. But Golden's
13:05going to be out there a ton. He's going
13:06to run a ton of routes. He is a first
13:08round talent. I know the dynasty
13:09community doesn't like him, but he is a
13:11first round talent. He was great in camp
13:13and he was great in week one. He's going
13:15to have a really, really strong season.
13:17Uh, it's also only a three and a half
13:18point spread. I know we see at the Jets
13:20and we're like, "Oh, are the Packers
13:21going to destroy them?" 44 and 1/2 point
13:23total, three and a half point spread.
13:25Spread moving in the Jets direction. I
13:27think it opened at 5 and a half and it's
13:29moved all the way to three and a half.
13:30So, the Jets are going to be competitive
13:32this season, uh, more competitive than
13:34last season. Their defense is better, so
13:36they're not just going to get
13:37steamrolled by teams. Uh, but their
13:39offense is decent as well. So, the
13:41total's been moving up. There's a chance
13:43this game plays out to like a 50point
13:45total. Again, 44 and a half is the
13:47average here, but there's a chance that
13:48the Jets are half decent on offense,
13:51have playmakers, can push the Packers to
13:53be competitive here, and if the Jets get
13:55up at all, and we see, you know, a
13:57trailing script uh from the Packers,
13:59like obviously the Jets have a better
14:02defense, but they don't have the best
14:03defense in the NFL, 49 and a half for
14:05someone that's going to run as many
14:06routes as Matthew Golden is as talented
14:08as he is, I think is also very
14:10reasonable. And then finally, uh, Dave
14:12Montgomery verse the Bengals, higher
14:14than 65 and a half rushing yards. You
14:17don't have Nico Collins. You've got Joe
14:19Burrow. Either like, it doesn't even
14:20matter which one. Either Joe Burrow's
14:22banged up, could miss this game, could
14:25play limited. You're like, "Okay, well
14:26now the Texans have a better chance of
14:28winning, a better chance of playing from
14:29ahead. That's good for D Montgomery." Or
14:32you have Joe Burrow playing and you look
14:34at the Texans side, you're like, "Okay,
14:35what do we not want to happen?" Well, we
14:37don't want Joe Burrow to have the
14:38football. We do not want the Bengals
14:40offense to have the ball. And so you
14:42also would run the ball at a relatively
14:44high rate not having Nico Collins
14:46because why would you want to drop back
14:47a ton? Obviously you have, you know,
14:49Booty there. You've got Xavier
14:51Hutchinson. You've got Null. These are
14:53not superstar wide receivers. Daltton
14:55Schultz is not a superstar tight end.
14:58You don't want to drop back 40 times.
15:01It's probably not going to look that
15:03good. you're probably going to have some
15:04short drives, some three and out, four
15:05and outs, and you're probably going to
15:07be giving the ball back to Joe Burrow,
15:09and you give him enough opportunities
15:11even on the road against your great
15:12defense, he's going to find success, and
15:14he's going to have a decent day. And so,
15:16uh, and that's even with like the
15:17potential back thing here. So, uh, I
15:19would imagine Dave Montgomery gets
15:21plenty of touches. The Bengals do not
15:23have that good of a defense, uh, playing
15:26at home. Like, just everything sets up
15:28well for Dave Montgomery to get 18 to 21
15:30rush attempts. And if he's getting that
15:32much volume, he doesn't need to be that
15:34efficient to get higher than 65 and a
15:35half rushing yards. So, those are 10 of
15:38my favorite picks this weekend. Good
15:41luck to all of you, not only in uh these
15:44picks for underdog, but also in your
15:46fantasy matchups as well. I'll be back
15:48on Tuesday to go over the week three
15:51Waverwire video for fantasy.
