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Week 1 Rankings | All Positions & All Games! | 2026 Fantasy Football Advice

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 8, 2026
Published
Tue, September 8, 2026
54
Player insights
54
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAdonai MitchellAmon-Ra St. BrownAustin EkelerBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Brock PurdyBucky IrvingCalvin RidleyCarnell TateChase BrownChris OlaveCordarrelle PattersonD.J. Moore
Player analysis

Player insights

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A.J. Brown

PositiveRole3:09

AJ Brown is a must-play for Week 1 despite grading out below must-start threshold; currently ranked WR20. The source emphasizes you have to play him regardless of the tough Seattle matchup, as he's one of the toughest spots all year but remains a core starter. He is identified as one of only two must-start wide receivers in Week 1, with the position being thin after him and DeAndre Washington.

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Adonai Mitchell

PositiveRole49:19

Jets tight end may see expanded role in Week 1 against the Titans; the source suggests it's possible Mitchell receives more playing time than expected, though this is projection-based and not guaranteed. Mitchell could benefit from the Titans' weak defense and the Jets' potential to accumulate more total plays than normal.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveRole12:02

Must-start WR for Week 1 against the Saints' weak defense; the source groups him with elite Lions plays, stating 'Gibbs, Aman, Rra, J Mo, get him in a starting lineup' and emphasizes 'Play the people on the Lions that you are obviously going to play.'

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Austin Ekeler

NegativeMatchup36:13

Likely to be started in Week 1 despite difficult road matchup vs Eagles. The source indicates Ekeler was drafted as a starter and should be played, though the Commanders offense faces a very difficult matchup and the source is not excited about their prospects this week.

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Breece Hall

PositiveProjection32:24

Hall is a must-play in Week 1 for the Jets against the Titans; the source recommends starting him as a key player in the Jets offense, noting that Garrett Wilson's return from injury should help the Jets offense significantly.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeMatchup28:28

Brian Thomas has a really difficult corner matchup against Cleveland in Week 1, making him a fade; the source would not play him despite his draft capital.

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Brock Purdy

NegativeProjection7:17

Projects fine as a streaming option ranked QB15 for Week 1; the source recommends rolling with him if he is your only quarterback, but suggests playing the starter if he was drafted as a backup.

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Bucky Irving

PositiveProjection23:40

Bucky Irving is projecting really well against Cincinnati because of the favorable matchup; the Bengals don't have a great defense against running backs. The source projects Irving for 17 touches, 0.7 total touchdowns, and a good chance of getting into the end zone, with a top-15 projection. Described as 'a really good play' for Week 1 despite some uncertainty around the Kennet Gainwell split.

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Calvin Ridley

PositiveRole30:30

Ridley didn't practice much in training camp for the Steelers and his target share is uncertain; the source would bench him if possible, with uncertainty around how much Roman Wilson, Jeremy Bernard, and other receivers will be mixed in.

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Carnell Tate

NegativeRole33:36

Tate's target share and role are uncertain heading into Week 1; the source wants to wait and see how the target distribution splits between Tate and other Titans receivers before committing to starting him. If forced to play him, the source thinks it's acceptable, but the Titans offense may look problematic early in the season.

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Chase Brown

PositiveProjection25:50

Bengals running back recommended as an 'always play' option in Week 1 due to strong matchup; the source explicitly recommends starting him alongside Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Evan McPherson as part of a favorable Bengals game environment.

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Chris Olave

PositiveRole10:19

Must-start WR for Week 1; the source states 'Chris Olive is a must start. You drafted him as a must' and ranks him as a top 10 wide receiver for the week against the Lions.

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Cordarrelle Patterson

NegativeProjection8:15

Projected as RB33 with 8.88 half-PPR points for Week 1; carries a high touchdown-scoring rate despite modest volume (approximately 10 carries, 1 reception). The source recommends looking elsewhere in Week 1 with no injuries or byes affecting the running back position, suggesting better options are available.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeProjection13:33

Playable option in Week 1 at Houston, projecting as WR23. The source notes that after Allen and Cook, the Buffalo offense becomes thin, but Moore can be played; projection may improve if Shakir is out.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveProjection20:19

DeAndre Swift is in a smash spot against the Panthers if Roma Dun is out; the source recommends playing him regardless of other backfield status. If Dun doesn't play, Swift is expected to see significant volume in the Bears offense and projects as a strong play for Week 1.

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Dalton Kincaid

NegativeProjection13:33

Playable option in Week 1 at Houston. The source notes that after Allen and Cook, the Buffalo offense becomes thin, but Kincaid can be played; projection may improve if Shakir is out, though the source is more hesitant with Kincaid and expects his projection may fall closer to Sunday.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection17:02

Doesn't project as a traditional streaming option but is very close to that range. He is not injured anymore and looks like he did last season with a great coaching staff in Indianapolis that could put together a solid game plan. The source sees potential for a shootout game where Daniel Jones could have a pretty good day, though recommends waiting a week to confirm health status before starting him.

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David Montgomery

PositiveProjection12:02

Must-start RB for Week 1; the source groups him with elite Lions plays against the Saints, stating 'Gibbs, Aman, Rra, J Mo, get him in a starting lineup.' Also recommended as a start in Week 1 against Buffalo, projecting as RB19; Houston wants to run the ball heavily with Montgomery and Marks, and rushing efficiency was very high against Buffalo last season, making this a favorable matchup.

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Derek Carr

PositiveValue9:21

Quality streaming QB option for Week 1 ranked QB13; highlights his rushing upside with 5.9 projected rush attempts and 22.7 rushing yards as key factors. Saints will play fast in a dome against a weak Lions defense, forcing volume through the air; touchdown upside comes primarily from rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line rather than passing volume.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveRole16:10

Part of Baltimore's elite top three alongside Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers. The source emphasizes there will be very few weeks where you're benching any of these three players, indicating a must-start recommendation against Indianapolis.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection2:29

Drake May does not project well for Week 1 against Seattle's difficult passing environment; 16.2 points projected in half-PPR. While he may get some rushing production and could benefit if New England falls behind, the tough defensive matchup limits pass-catcher efficiency. If you have another streaming option available, consider pivoting away.

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Erick All

PositiveRole26:05

Bengals running back positioned to see increased role in Week 1; the source expresses excitement about his potential and projects him to eat into Gaseiki's production, suggesting meaningful opportunity and upside in the backfield split.

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Evan Engram

PositiveProjection28:00

Jacksonville tight end described as 'a solid option' in Week 1; the source cites projected favorable game flow with Jacksonville winning and scoring a decent amount of points as the reason for the positive outlook.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveProjection32:24

Wilson is a must-play in Week 1 for the Jets against the Titans; the source recommends starting him as a key player in the Jets offense. Wilson's return from injury should help the Jets offense significantly.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveMatchup36:56

Jalen Hurts is a must-start for Week 1 vs Washington. The source explicitly marks Hurts as a green light start, indicating strong confidence in his performance against the Commanders defense.

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Jalon Daniels

NegativeMatchup35:53

Must start in Week 1 vs Eagles if he is your only quarterback; do not stream a back-end QB over Daniels. The source notes the Commanders offense faces significant questions and is not excited about their prospects this week, but Daniels was drafted to be a starter and should be played unless you have a back-end QB that projects well. The Eagles defense is brutal, making this a very tough matchup.

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James Cook

PositiveProjection13:10

Must-start in Week 1 at Houston despite tough matchup; projecting as RB12 for the week. The source emphasizes Cook must be started in every matchup and projects extraordinarily well despite Houston's strong defense.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeMatchup36:13

Must start if he is your only quarterback despite tough Week 1 road matchup vs Eagles; streaming a back-end QB over Daniels is not recommended. The source notes the Commanders offense faces significant questions and is not excited about their prospects this week, but Daniels was drafted to be a starter and should be played unless you have a back-end QB that projects well.

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Jaylen Warren

PositiveProjection30:58

Warren projects as RB26 with approximately 11–11.5 PPR points as a flex option in Week 1; the source projects 2.9 receptions for him from the Steelers' dump-off-heavy offense. If the Steelers are winning, he could see double-digit rush attempts, giving him both a solid floor from receiving and ceiling from rushing volume.

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Jeremiyah Love

NegativeProjection38:34

Week 1 start consideration with RB29 projection despite limited carries expected. The source projects ~8 carries and 1 reception for Algier, which will eat into Love's production; Chargers are 10.5-point home favorites, limiting rush attempts for Arizona. Love can rack up receptions but won't see many carries. If drafted in round 3 as second RB with limited alternatives, start him, but watch the projection for potential further downside.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection25:50

Bengals starter recommended as an 'always play' option in Week 1 due to strong matchup; the source explicitly recommends starting him alongside Chase Brown, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Evan McPherson as part of a favorable Bengals game environment.

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Josh Downs

NegativeRole17:42

Missed time in camp and is part of the Colts' uncertain wide receiver room against a strong Baltimore defense. The source recommends benching him for Week 1 because of where he was drafted (likely WR3/WR4 range).

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Kendre Miller

PositiveProjection10:41

Projected as RB51 for Week 1; expected to receive a couple receptions and a decent amount of carries with a good chance of scoring a touchdown (0.5 total TDs projected). Despite backup status, the source recommends playing him given the Saints' investment and expected volume.

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Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeRole24:22

Kennet Gainwell's role is uncertain heading into Week 1; the source would not play him unless in a full PPR league and wants to see his role first before committing.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveRole16:10

Healthy heading into Week 1 and part of Baltimore's elite top three alongside Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers. The source emphasizes there will be very few weeks where you're benching any of these three players, indicating a must-start recommendation against Indianapolis in a favorable matchup.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeRole16:25

Solid streaming option if needed for Week 1 against Indianapolis. The loss of Isaiah Likely creates an opportunity for Andrews to see more production funnel to him. However, the source recommends keeping him on the bench since he likely wasn't drafted as a starter, and suggests streaming him only if necessary.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeMatchup38:04

Avoid starting in Week 1 vs Chargers; the source wants to see performance first before committing. The source explicitly states they are not playing Harrison in starting lineups this week.

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Michael Wilson

NegativeMatchup38:04

Avoid starting in Week 1 vs Chargers; the source wants to see performance first before committing. The source explicitly states they are not playing Wilson in starting lineups this week.

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Mike Evans

PositiveInjury7:27

Should be played in Week 1; latest reports indicate he was held out only as a precaution and would have played in games if available. His ADP tanked unnecessarily due to injury concerns, but as a veteran he can play through minor injuries. Additionally, he is in a great spot against Chicago, which was the number two matchup for wide receivers last season.

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Najee Harris

PositiveProjection30:58

Harris projects as RB24, the last strong start in a 12-team league, with approximately 11–11.5 PPR points; the source projects 1.8 receptions for him from the Steelers' dump-off-heavy offense. If the Steelers are winning, he could see double-digit rush attempts, giving him both a solid floor from receiving and ceiling from rushing volume.

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Nick Chubb

NegativeMatchup27:00

Browns running back facing a very difficult Week 1 matchup against Jacksonville's strong defense; the source does not want to play him and recommends avoiding most Browns players in this game environment.

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Parker Washington

NegativeMatchup28:28

Parker Washington should project really well in Week 1; he should avoid the tougher matchups for the most part and be moved around a lot more, unlike Brian Thomas who faces a difficult corner matchup against Cleveland. The source recommends playing Parker Washington if drafted.

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Quentin Johnston

PositiveProjection39:25

Week 1 start consideration with potential TD upside; the source has conviction that Johnston will catch a 40–50 yard touchdown. The source expects McDaniel's offense to come out aggressive in the first game and light the world on fire, with Arizona expected to do little on their end. Johnston starts the season as the primary receiver ahead of Trey Harris, positioning him for projection bump based on this TD upside conviction.

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Roman Wilson

NegativeRole30:30

Roman Wilson's role and target share for the Steelers in Week 1 is uncertain; the source questions how much he will be mixed in alongside Stefon Diggs and Calvin Ridley, making it unclear how the target distribution will shape out.

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Sam Darnold

NegativeProjection4:24

Sam Darnold is not expected to grade out well in Week 1 due to a difficult game environment with two strong defenses. The source indicates he will rarely grade out as a strong fantasy option and recommends streaming him only in weeks with expected high production.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveRole30:30

Diggs didn't practice much in training camp for the Steelers and his target share is uncertain; the source would bench him if possible, with uncertainty around how much Roman Wilson, Jeremy Bernard, and other receivers will be mixed in.

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Terry McLaurin

NegativeMatchup35:53

Start in Week 1 vs Eagles despite tough matchup. McLaurin was drafted to be a starter, so the source recommends playing him; he is one of only two Commanders players the source would confidently start this week. The source is not excited about the Commanders offense overall, but McLaurin's draft capital warrants a start.

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Tony Pollard

NegativeProjection33:54

Pollard projects to RB16 with 13 half-PPR points in Week 1 against the Jets, who allowed the number-one rushing matchup last season; the source views him as a streaming option but notes the projection may be slightly inflated and plans to adjust the split between Pollard and Jaylen Spears.

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Tre Harris

NegativeUsage40:01

Avoid for Week 1 starting lineups; projecting as WR72. The source is hesitant to bump his projection due to unclear snap count splits in one-receiver vs two-receiver sets. While Trey Harris is loved by the team, Quentin Johnston starts the season as the primary receiver. Harris will be used heavily in blocking and could see limited snaps if the Chargers get up by 14 points and run the ball frequently, further limiting his fantasy ceiling.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection28:00

Jacksonville quarterback described as 'still a strong start' in Week 1 against Cleveland; the source projects favorable game flow with Jacksonville winning and scoring a decent amount of points, making Lawrence a recommended play.

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Tua Tagovailoa

NegativeProjection30:00

Tua was terrible in camp and is projected as QB31 with a 19.25 implied total for the Falcons against Pittsburgh; the source finds this unappealing and expects worse production from the Falcons offense as a result.

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Tyler Warren

NegativeRole17:42

Has the worst matchup on the Colts team against Baltimore's strong defense, yet the source still recommends definitely playing him, indicating his role and talent override the matchup concern.

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Woody Marks

NegativeProjection14:00

Projecting as RB44 in Week 1 against Buffalo; the source is hesitant to play him despite Houston's run-heavy approach. The source recommends waiting to see if Marks actually splits carries with Montgomery before drafting him with that expectation.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveRole16:10

Part of Baltimore's elite top three alongside Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The source emphasizes there will be very few weeks where you're benching any of these three players, indicating a must-start recommendation against Indianapolis.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

518
0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here.
0:01Back with a video. Week one is tomorrow.
0:04Crazy uh starting on a Wednesday this week, but wild that we are already at week one. So, we're going to go
0:10game-by-game, talk about all the players you need to be starting and sitting this week. We'll start off with that Wednesday game, Patriots at Seahawks. Uh
0:1744.5 point total, Seahawks 3.5 point home favorite. So, um basically an average scoring game, uh but Seattle favored a little bit at
0:26home. Basically, makes sense. Uh for the Patriots side, tough spot. I mean, I think everyone knows that at Seattle especially is a
0:33very difficult environment to play in.
0:36Uh you can see here a note on the uh like defensive metrics you're going to see in today's video. They're going to
0:42get stronger as the season goes on.
0:44Obviously, in week one, it's 100% based off of the end of last season. Teams change over the off-season. We know that
0:51Seattle is still a very good defense.
0:53They're still going to be one of the ones we're avoiding all year. Uh but, every single week more and more of this
1:00season's data is going to go into it.
1:02So, it'll become stronger. But again, for most of the defenses, right? We know that we don't want to play Houston, Seattle. We don't want to play like at
1:10Kansas City. We don't want to play Denver. Jacksonville's got great run defense. Like, there are certain things we kind of just know going into the
1:15year. But there will be defenses that surprise us. So, we'll adjust as things go forward. But again, Seattle, very difficult environment. Uh we talked
1:22actually a lot last year about how they're kind of like a tight end funnel.
1:25Um I don't think you really can take advantage of that in week one, but because they're so stingy against running backs, against receivers, teams
1:33tend to throw to their tight ends a little bit more often. But again, week one, um another kind of note before we
1:40fully dive into things, is you want to start your guys, right? It is unlikely you drafted Hunter Henry as your number
1:46one tight end, uh or that you're streaming Hunter Henry with like, I don't know, Sam LaPorta. And you're like, "Well, it's a tight end funnel for
1:53Hunter Henry."
1:55Start your guys. Start the guys you start you drafted early on in the draft.
1:59Um don't get too cute. Uh sometimes we can avoid match-ups, not avoid match-ups, but like at the end of the day, especially for younger players,
2:07don't be looking at like your 12th and 13th round options and be like, "Got to get them in the starting lineup." For
2:13the most part, whoever you drafted to be the starter should probably be in there in week one with basically rounds like
2:19six through eight, nine, 10, like that general range, that can be mixed matched a little bit for match-up. But again, we'll we'll talk about that a lot in
2:27this video. So, on the Patriots side, uh there's not much to love. So, Drake May, you probably did draft as your only
2:32quarterback or as part of a streaming option. He is one where like does not project well for week one. Uh going to
2:39have a little bit of rushing production.
2:40You hope that he scores a rushing touchdown, that'll really help his numbers. But because it is such a difficult passing environment, none of
2:46his pass catchers are really going to stand out from an efficiency standpoint.
2:49It's possible that Seattle gets up, New England has to play from behind, and that we see more total volume, but it's unlikely. You know, Seattle won
2:59a ton of games last year, and we're still looking at uh below average numbers for like pass catchers against them. So, it's a difficult spot. If you
3:06have someone else to stream over Drake May, I would maybe do that. It's not a terrible projection, 16.2.
3:11Uh everything for here for projections is going to be half PPR scoring, and all the flex option, must start, strong starts are all going to be based on 12
3:19team leagues. On the website, you can customize all that yourself for your league, but obviously I have to pick one for this video. So, the best plays on
3:26the Patriots side are obviously A.J.
3:28Brown, you have to play him. Um he doesn't grade out as a must start, uh but he's wide receiver 20 right now. I
3:32don't see how you possibly bench him. Um but going to be one of the toughest spots all year, but you basically have
3:37to play him. And then Stevenson as well, if we get um basically to the Traveon news, I'm projecting right now Traveon
3:44in but limited. If Traveon is out, of course you kind of have to play Rhamondre Stevenson. He he a must start.
3:51Uh he's going to project for like 20 touches and be a great play. But, that is really it. Like, you don't really
3:55want to play the Patriots kicker.
3:57They're probably not going to score that much. Um, you probably don't want to play Hunter Henry. You definitely better option. Romeo Doubs should probably be
4:02left on benches. Like, it's really just thin after uh, Rhamondre and A.J. Brown.
4:07Those are really the only two I'd want in starting lineups. But, you can do Maye if you have no other options. For
4:11the Seahawks side, um, also a pretty strong defense on New England. Um, they also lose their um, offensive coordinator. Obviously, Kubiak
4:20going to the Raiders. And so, you have a little bit of risk that like, well, this is the first week they don't have him on
4:26offense. So, you again, mostly want to stick to the studs. Obviously, play JSN.
4:30He's grading out as a wide receiver two this week. All green from him. He's going to be a must start. Uh, and then I
4:35have two of the must starts listed just for their kicker and for their defense.
4:39Um, you know, not as fun as getting skill players, but start them if you have them. Um, Sam Darnold's pretty much
4:45never going to grade out as that good of a play. We'll stream him on weeks where, you know, we're expecting it's Hunter
4:50production. But, this is a difficult game environment kind of for everyone.
4:53It's two good defenses on both sides.
4:55We're only attacking, you know, the players that we trust the most. Uh, so, start JSN. Jerrick Price, um, I don't know. I mean, if you drafted other
5:03running backs to start over him, I would much prefer to bench him. Uh, you can see at the bottom here, I have George
5:08Holani uh, projected for uh, nine touches. But, I could see Holani having, you know, a decent amount of production week one. I could see him having like,
5:17you know, eight or nine rush attempts, have a couple receptions, get a goal line touch. And people are just frustrated that Jerrick Price has like one catch
5:26and like 12 carries, right? And just if he doesn't score a touchdown from there, you can be frustrated with that. Uh, so,
5:32not projecting amazingness for Price.
5:34But, coming out the running back 28, that's not terrible. Uh, it's just if I had another option, I would prefer not
5:39to play Price. And then Shaheed would really be only a deeper league option.
5:43So, not a ton to love on the Seattle side, either.
5:47Thursday game, we're going to have San Fran quote-unquote at LA. Um the game is in uh Australia, I believe it was. Yeah,
5:55I don't really get that wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's Australia. Um so no one's really home here. Uh we've got a really high total, 48 and a half,
6:03so 26 implied points for LA, 22 and a half for San Fran um with, you know, LA being slight favorites in this one. So a
6:12few more options, we see a couple more colors on the screen. In this one, we don't see as much red for the opposing
6:17defenses. Now, this is one spot where things have changed a little bit from last year. I would expect, as we get a
6:23few weeks into the season, that the LA defense is going to be one of the best in the league. So, this is a very
6:29difficult spot. Some of their players are ramping up a little bit, but like we are not going to be attacking the LA
6:33defense this season. I feel like the Rams are probably like the best team in the league uh right now. Um but it's San Fran, and you just start
6:42their studs. It's really just that simple. Um Shribling will be someone we'd probably go to at some point, but I don't expect much from Deebo this
6:49season. I think Shribling week one, you keep him on your bench. Um I probably wouldn't play uh Puniaro just because of the unknown with
6:57kind of the defense there, but start basically everyone else. I mean, obviously McCaffrey you have to play every week. I think Kittle's a great
7:04option if we get positive news. We'll probably have to see what the news is on Thursday regarding his recovery. Is it
7:12like Is it going to be a 50/50 snap share? Is he going to be able to play 70, 80%? Like, we kind of just don't
7:17know. Right now, I'm projecting him to be limited, but still use a decent amount, in which case I'm playing him.
7:22Uh but if we get word on like a snap count, I might dial back the projection.
7:26He might turn into more of just a streaming option. But again, play McCaffrey. Um Purdy projects totally fine as a streaming option. Quarterback
7:3415, if he's your only quarterback, just roll with him. Uh if you drafted him as your quarterback two, probably just play
7:38the starter. And then Mike Evans, I think you just play him. Uh the the latest reports were that he was basically just held out as totally a
7:45precaution. He said he would have been playing in games had there been games, but there were no games. He's a veteran.
7:49There's no reason to put Mike Evans out there when he's a little bit banged up, but he could have always played through
7:54the injury. So, his ADP was tanking for really no reason. Play him if you got him. So, play McCaffrey, play Evans,
8:00Purdy streaming, Kittle, we'll see. On the LA side, again, just start their studs. It's a very easy game to go over.
8:08Stafford pretty much always has to be in starting lineups.
8:12Kyren Williams, Devonta Adams, Puka Nacua, I don't really see a scenario where you're benching any of them.
8:19Uh maybe we see Kyren start to get more work this season. He's not going to project as an as an amazing play, but
8:26there were times last year where it was the same projection, right? About 10 carries, about one reception, you're like, "Oh, that's not enough
8:31production." But, he's got a very high rate of scoring a touchdown, you know, he's going to be pretty efficient on those touches. And so, you know, if you
8:37absolutely needed Kyren as a running back three, as a second flex option, something like that, it would be fine, but coming in as a running back 33, 8.8
8:44half PPR points, you can probably do better week one with no buys and no injuries. Uh but yeah, we'll we'll probably end up going to Kyren at some
8:51point this season.
8:53Next up, we've got Saints at Lions.
8:55Should be a really fun game to watch.
8:577-point home favorites for uh the Saints and a 49 and 1/2 point total. So, one of the higher totals of the week. Not the
9:05highest, but one of the highest of the week. 28.25 projected points for the Lions, and we could see them blow past that. Like, the
9:12Lions side, as you can see, very, very appealing in this one. Um the Saints are going to play fast. This game is in a
9:18dome.
9:19The Lions themselves don't have that good of a defense. So, this could be one of those spots. If the Saints can keep
9:25up, that we see both teams crack, you know, 27 points. We could see like a 27-34 game. Could be really, really
9:32exciting in this one. On the Saints side, again, we're not that scared of the Lions defense. So, they have opportunity here if if they can put
9:40things together. Uh Taysom is a quality streaming option right now coming in as the quarterback 13. Uh the rushing component is positive. You can see a
9:48little bit of green on the rushing component, projecting 5.9 rushing attempts, 22.7 rushing yards. He has mobility. Um it's really just going to
9:55depend does he scramble like inside the 10-yard line for a touchdown? That's really going to boost uh his production there uh cuz I'm not expecting, you
10:02know, like 350 passing and four passing touchdowns. Like Taysom's going to get there usually based on like, you know, getting hit 30, 40 rushing yards,
10:11getting that rushing touchdown, adding on solid production through the air.
10:14But, a really solid streaming option because they're going to have to throw the ball a lot. They're going to play fast. The game is in a dome. It's not a
10:20good defense on the other side. A lot of positives for the Saints here. So, Taysom good streaming option. Uh Chris Olave is a must start. You drafted him
10:27as a must start. He's a, you know, top 10 wide receiver this week. Um I would say Eno Benjamin is basically um he
10:33doesn't project as a must start yet, but I would say there's no way you're not playing him uh while we don't have
10:39Kamara active. I know they have the backups. Uh I'm projecting a little bit to Kendre Miller here, running back 51.
10:44Uh but, you know, let's be honest. Like, we don't trust these backups at all.
10:48They brought him in. They paid him a ton of money.
10:50He's going to have a couple receptions.
10:52He's going to have a decent amount of carries. A good chance of scoring a touchdown. I'm at 0.5 total touchdowns.
10:57Like, he's going to be a good play. Play him.
11:00Uh and then Juwan. Juwan's projecting really well. He's going to project great while Jordan Tyson is out. Um Valdes-Scantling's not terrible. Um I
11:08drafted Valdes-Scantling in that 14-team league. Um Listen, like I think it was that one.
11:13Maybe I'm lying now and it was a 12-team, but I I think I drafted Valdes-Scantling in the 14-teamer. But, anyways, I drafted him on Underdog just
11:18for this early season production. He's going to be the two. Uh so, you're seeing a lot of red here, but, you know,
11:223.2 receptions, 40 yards, uh 0.2 touchdowns, wide receiver 50. That's not bad. If you were in a deeper format, you were in full PPR, you were in a bind for
11:32some reason you drafted a bunch of injured players. Maybe you drafted like Tyson and you drafted um Malik Nabers, right? And you just need someone to
11:40start. He's not a bad option, only projecting for 7.5 PPR points, but I could see him racking up like four or
11:47five receptions here, you know, maybe mixing a touchdown if he gets lucky. He might not be a bad play, but uh at the
11:53end of the day, the best plays are Olave, Etienne, and Juwan, and truly like I would play Juwan over a lot of
12:00different tight ends this week. Um just expecting a really strong game from him. Uh Saint's side, play everyone. Play the people that you
12:09know you're going to or the the Lion's side. Play the people on the Lions that you are obviously going to play. Gibbs,
12:15Amon-Ra, Jamo, get him in the starting lineup. Sam LaPorta, start him. Jared Goff, start him. Like it's just until we see a reason not to play
12:24Saint's players, they should all be in your starting lineups. It's a great spot. Again, I went over all the the factors here, but you got to just be
12:31playing those guys.
12:33All right, next up. Uh Buffalo at Houston. Buffalo 1.5 point road favorites, 44.5 point total. Tough spot for Buffalo, tough beginning of the
12:41season for Buffalo. They play first like four or five weeks, really difficult matchups overall. This is no different.
12:47You're at Houston, that's one of the ones we mentioned to start. Um you know, it's just it's just a difficult game environment to play in.
12:53It's a really, really strong defense on the other side, and they don't typically have blow-up games. You know how some strong defenses, they have these random
13:00games where you'll play 30 points. It's like maybe Buffalo is one of the teams that can score 30 on them, but like it's
13:05pretty rare a team just like walks up and down the field on the Texans. So, going to be a tough spot, uh but you
13:10have to start Josh Allen, you have to start James Cook in every single matchup. They both project extraordinarily well. After that, it
13:17becomes more thin, but you can play DJ Moore, and you can play Dalton Kincaid.
13:23Depends a lot on Shaquille. I'm projecting Shaquille in right now. If he's out, it's even more of a boost to DJ Moore, even more of a boost to Dalton
13:31Kincaid. Um but don't go crazy here. Don't be playing Shakir. Don't be playing like Knox or Raheem Davis or anything. Joshua
13:37Palmer, like play your starters on Buffalo and just don't expect as good of production, right? Um Josh Allen's only projecting as quarterback only only the
13:45quarterback three. It's only the quarterback three. Uh James Cook running back uh 12. We've got DJ Moore wide receiver 23. There's going to be a lot
13:53of weeks where these guys project much better than this. So, um if anyone I'm more hesitant with, it's Kincaid. I could see his projection falling a
13:59little bit um as we get closer to Sunday. Um but yeah, it's basically start these guys and understand that the production
14:06might be a little bit worse than you were hoping for. On the Texans side, um also like they're going to project for
14:12better a lot of other weeks. There's definitely a lot of games where Buffalo, you know, gets a lead uh and then dials
14:17it back a little bit, um leans on that ground game, really limits the plays overall for the opposing team. So, that's kind of factored in here as well.
14:24It was a good match-up for the running backs last season. We'll see if that carries over into this year, but rushing
14:30efficiency was really high against Buffalo. They really just like stopped the pass. I mean, you see all the red here for wide receivers and tight ends.
14:37Uh basically stopped that production, allowed you to run the ball. Well, that could be good. Houston wants to do that, right? Like Houston wants to run the
14:42ball a lot with David Montgomery and Woody Marks. Uh Monty is projecting right now as the running back 19. Marks running back 44. I probably wouldn't
14:50play Marks. I would probably say like, you know, if you drafted him hoping he'd have that production, hoping that he'd basically split with Monty. I'd
14:58still want to see it first. So, I think you're still definitely playing uh David Montgomery. You're obviously playing Nico Collins. Uh Ka'imi Fairbairn is
15:05just one of the best kickers in the NFL, so you want to be playing him. Uh also a dome environment, so that's a positive
15:10for kickers.
15:12But that's really it. I wouldn't go to C.J. Stroud. Um he's not someone I typically ever want to start because the
15:16rushing production is so low. Projecting 12 rushing yards, so he has to do it all through the air. And again, through the
15:21air was not easy for against Buffalo last season. It's not at Buffalo, it's still home game, but you've also got Booty ramping up. Uh right now I have
15:29Booty as wide receiver 67. It's just not like not really something you have to go to.
15:34Um I am fine if you needed to stream Schultz, but again, there's no buys, there's not that many injuries, you probably don't need to go there. Um it
15:42really would just be Nico, Monty. Get them in the starting lineup. Probably wouldn't play with anyone else on Houston.
15:48Uh next up, Baltimore at Indy. 48 and a half point total. Uh we got Baltimore three and a half point road favorites.
15:55This is an exciting uh game from a potential standpoint. The Colts were like one of the best teams, if not the
16:02best team in the NFL before Daniel Jones got hurt last season. And all by all accounts, he looks very healthy right
16:08now. And then you've got Baltimore, well, we've got a healthy Lamar Jackson right now. Of course, we've got Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers. These are two
16:14offenses that, you know, another spot where we could see both teams clearing 27 points. So, another exciting one. And you see all the gold on the stream on
16:22the screen. Uh start Lamar, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, uh Tyler Loop also good play uh for kicker this week. Um Mark Andrews, um you know, just a a
16:32solid streaming option if you like needed to go there. Um the hope is that, you know, the loss of Isaiah Likely basically makes it so that
16:42we see more production funnel over to Mark Andrews. At the end of the day, we don't necessarily know if that is going
16:48to happen. So, I probably would just you know, you probably didn't draft Mark Andrews as that one, so I'd probably just keep him
16:55on the bench, see what happens. Uh but you could stream him if you have to. But just stick to the studs uh for the
17:00Baltimore side. There's going to be very few weeks where you're benching any of their top three of Lamar, Henry, and Zay. I know some of you are excited
17:07about Jakobi Lane uh projecting two and a half receptions, 32 yards. A quiet week one, a quiet start to the season,
17:14but we shall see. Hopefully, he goes out there, commands, you know, five, six, seven targets, uh and we can really look
17:20at him at some point moving forward, but you got to keep him on the bench right now. On the Colts side, um
17:27Daniel Jones doesn't project as a streaming option, but he's actually very close to being into that range, and I don't mind him. Another one where it's
17:34like it's unlikely you drafted a Daniel Jones as that starter, but I could easily see, you know, Baltimore scores early, they have a really solid
17:42game at home in a dome, the Colts just kind of put it together. Um He is not injured anymore. He looks like
17:51he did last season. We know they have great uh a great coaching staff in Indy, so they could put together a really
17:57solid game plan. The only thing I would say is um you've got Pierce probably playing. It seems like he's going to play, uh but
18:03didn't really do a ton in camp. Uh Josh Downs even missed time in camp. Uh it's not like the Baltimore defense is one we
18:11want to be attacking. They're still a very strong defense. Um the one that's been there in camp, Tyler Warren, has the worst match-up on the team. So,
18:19I would probably wait a week and just see if Daniel Jones is healthy, but if you had to do it, I actually could see
18:24this game shooting out, in which case Daniel Jones will probably have a pretty good day. But, at the end of the day, um
18:29play Jonathan Taylor, absolutely.
18:31Definitely play Tyler Warren. And then you have flex options for both Downs and Pierce. I probably would lean towards benching both because of where you
18:40drafted them. At best, they're probably your wide receiver three. They're probably your wide receiver fours. So, you don't need to go there. We know that
18:47like Baltimore could have a really strong defense this season. It's the first game back for Daniel Jones. We don't know how this wide receiver room
18:53is really going to shake out in terms of target share. So, just cuz of all the unknowns for the Colts, I would lean
18:59towards not playing them. But, projection-wise, which is why we like this team, they're looking pretty solid.
19:04Again, even in what is probably a difficult match-up and projected for 22 and 1/2 points, the Colts are going to be projected for 24-plus a lot of
19:10different weeks this season, um just because we know that like, you know, there's Keenan Allen down here, there's Dulin, but like there's no one that's
19:18really commanding targets over Pierce and Downs. If they fully ramp up and are those two clear outside wide receivers, there's going to be a lot of weeks where
19:26we want to be playing them even as like wide receiver twos. I just think take one week off and maybe we'll go back to
19:31them next week.
19:33Next up, uh, a surprising one. So, Chicago at Carolina, uh, 47 and 1/2 point total. Chicago only 2 and 1/2 point, uh, road favorites. I thought
19:44that I don't know. I thought that Chicago would be favored by more here. They're still getting 25 points in that projection in that implied total, so
19:52still pretty solid, but I feel like Vegas is, I don't know, maybe overvaluing the Panthers or maybe I'm undervaluing the Panthers this season,
20:00um, but start your guys on Chicago. Um, I will say Roman Dunesday, so he doesn't project amazing to start, uh, but then
20:08also, uh, didn't practice on Monday. I'm recording this Tuesday. I'm going to post this at some point Tuesday afternoon. Um, watch that, obviously. I mean, if Rome
20:18is also out, I mean, my goodness, it's a smash spot for, uh, De'Von Achane Swift, Colson Loveland, and Luther Burden. I
20:23think you're already, you're playing, uh, them, you're playing Caleb Williams.
20:27If you have them, get them in your starting lineups, uh, but if you didn't have Rome, I mean, I don't know, like
20:31Loveland might project as like the number two tight end. We might have Luther Burden crack the top 15 cuz like I think Khasean Williams will get usage.
20:40I think that Xavian Thomas will get schemed stuff eventually, but I don't know about that to start the season.
20:47A lot of production is going to flow through Loveland, Burden, and Swift, especially if Monangai didn't play. Um, right now, I don't, yeah, I'm projecting
20:56Monangai out. I have Salvon Ahmed, uh, running back 59. He just returned to practice on Monday, so it's kind of like
21:02see what happens with Monangai this week. Obviously, Swift is going to drop down closer to the running back, probably like 12 to 15 if we have
21:10Mononye returning and expected to see a normal workload. Uh, but you can follow the projections on the website or in the
21:16app as far as that's concerned. But right now, again, I'm projecting uh, Mononye out. But whether or not Mononye is in or out, I would play De'Andre
21:24Swift in this spot. So, start your your Bears players. I'm very excited for the offense this season. And then on the
21:30Panthers side, um, I'm never that much of a Bryce Young fan, but Vegas is projecting, you know, they're home. 22 and 1/2 isn't a terrible implied team
21:39total. Uh, they're projected to potentially win this game. Chicago does not have that good of a defense. Um, I mean, you can see here it was the number
21:47two match-up for wide receivers last season. Um, Thielen's in a great spot, obviously play Thielen. Kmet's in a good spot. He's projecting right now as the
21:55wide receiver 36, 8.2 points. That's not bad. Nearly 50 receiving yards. Like, this is a pretty good spot for him. And
22:03if Carolina falls behind, and if what like Brooks, I mean, is Brooks healthy right now? Right now I'm projecting him healthy and playing, in which case he's
22:10a strong start. But if Brooks is, you know, a little bit banged up, if Chuba's coming off of injury, they could lean a
22:16little bit more pass-heavy. And that's obviously going to benefit McMillan and Kmet. So, I could see playing Kmet in like a second flex spot. Again, it's a
22:24full week, so you probably don't have to. You're probably drafting him as like your sixth wide receiver, so he'd have to jump over a lot of people. Really
22:31Thielen and if Brooks plays Brooks. Um, but yeah, it's like appealing spots here from a theoretical standpoint of if they actually make this game close, and if
22:41this game pushes into the upper 20s for both sides, it's not like Carolina's going to throw the ball to a million
22:46different players. Most of these targets are going to Thielen, Kmet, the running backs, and then we'll see Waller's going to be kind of ramped up. I think we'll
22:52use him in the future weeks. Uh, but yeah, an exciting potential spot here. I was surprised to see the spread so close
22:59uh, this week.
23:01Next up, we've got Bay at Cincy. One of the more exciting games as well.
23:07Uh 50 and 1/2 point total and we've got uh 3 and 1/2 point home favorites for the Bengals side. This is another spot.
23:15If Tampa Bay can keep pace with the Bengals, we could see a shootout, which is obviously going to be fun. I want to
23:21see shootouts in week one. Uh before the Tampa Bay side, you see a lot of green.
23:24The Bengals don't have that great of a defense. Decent against wide receivers because they have a really good corner.
23:29Um but not that great against running backs, not that great against tight ends. Again, that can change going into this year, but last year, that's what we
23:36were seeing. Uh so, Bucky Irving projecting really well because of the matchup. Um it is a spot where like if you could bench him because you went
23:46like running back, running back and then your flex spot's really solid, I could see it um just because I don't know what
23:51the split's going to be with Gainwell.
23:52Like does Gainwell come in on every third down? Does he mix in on some early downs? Is it much more 50/50? We just
23:58kind of don't know, and so there's some risk there, but just because of the matchup, uh because I'm projecting 0.7 total touchdowns for Bucky, a pretty
24:05good chance of getting to the end zone.
24:07Still uh projecting, what is that? 17 touches. You know, that's really good for a running back. He's projecting top 15. Like Bucky's a really good play this
24:15weekend. Uh so, I would probably play Bucky if you can, but I see I can see reasons to be hesitant not knowing uh
24:22the kind of Gainwell status. Um Baker's a great streaming option, again because of the potential of this game environment. I would play Ihmir
24:30Smith-Marsette if he is out there.
24:31They're expecting him to play. We will see what news comes later this week, but I would play uh Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Um
24:38Godwin, honestly, not a bad option, especially, you know, all this time that Ihmir Smith-Marsette has missed. Very obviously, like when when this happens
24:45in camp, they have to scheme things up, right?
24:48They have to game plan for not only the season, but for week one. And there's been a lot of time where they're game
24:52planning for week one and Ihmir Smith-Marsette is not out there. And so, it's very clear and also that like Jamison Darden, McMillan has been out
24:58there. And then you've got a rookie in Ted Hurst. And so, Godwin's going to have a role. And he's probably going to
25:04have a pretty good day in week one. Uh so, I could see using him in the flex spot, definitely like wide receiver
25:10three spot, second flex spot. Um I might be able to bump his projection a little bit, but projecting him pretty well.
25:15Four receptions, 50 yards, 0.3 touchdowns. That's not a bad projection for someone who you probably drafted in what, like the 10th 9th or the 10th round uh in drafts.
25:25Again, you might not have to go there, but he's not a bad play. He could bump up to being a streaming option by the
25:32end of the week. Uh so, excited about these starters for Tampa Bay and the potential of this game, but I don't
25:37think I would go with Gainwell unless it's like a full PPR league, but I kind of want to see it for a week with
25:42Gainwell. Um I don't even really know if McMillan's going to play. He's still injured. I would not go to Cade Otton.
25:47Ted Hurst, you want to see it first. So, these backups I would not really play, uh but play the starters for
25:53uh the Bucks. And then the Bengals, uh pretty easy every single week. Always play, you know, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins.
26:02Play their kicker McPherson as well. Um just start them. I mean, there's really not that much to go over. Uh I'm
26:08interested to see this the split between Gesicki and Eric All. I actually have it relatively close right now cuz they're very excited about Eric All. Um I could
26:15see him really eating into production of Gesicki, uh but don't go to their like, you know, third receivers. It's play the
26:21stars in Cincy Cincy, uh and you will probably be happy with the production in week one. Uh next up.
26:29Potential blowout here, but only seven and a half with the projection right now, but potential blowout. Uh Cleveland at Jacksonville, 40 and a half point
26:35total, so pretty low. Uh and then Jacksonville seven and a half point home favorites. That gives them a 16 and a
26:41half point implied total. Um not looking amazing for the Browns in week one. Deshaun Watson getting the start. I'm projecting him as the worst
26:50quarterback in week one, 11.6 points. Do not play him and really don't play many people on the Browns. Jacksonville is a
26:58very strong defense. Um I think they're going to be a defense that we see like uh 11 here, solid on the ground for for match up or sorry,
27:07over here. Uh we see them 23rd. I think that um I think that Jacksonville is going to be one of the better run defenses. I could
27:14see them being a top five unit this season. So, not a team we want to be attacking really at all. Uh and when you
27:20have Deshaun Watson at quarterback, that's a problem, too. So, you could play Judkins in the flex if you needed him. Uh you could stream Fannin. Truly,
27:28I want to see it for a week in Cleveland before playing any of these guys. You probably have to play Fannin if you
27:32drafted him as the top guy. But if you drafted Fannin and like Juwan, truly, like I don't know. That's a very
27:38difficult decision. I could see benching Fannin, but most you probably have to play him. I want to see it for a week
27:43first uh with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Tough game environment on the road. I don't want to be playing Concepcion or Denzel Boston. There will
27:50be weeks where we do. It's just for the start of the season, really only Judkins I feel even okay about. But even
27:57Judkins, it's only because he projects decently for like a rushing touchdown.
27:59If they can score, it's probably coming through him. Uh but for the most part, do not love Cleveland this week. And
28:05then Jacksonville is a good play, right?
28:07Um it's tough because they're only projected 24 even as seven and a half point favorites. And Cleveland has a good defense, but uh we
28:15kind of know where the production should come from in week one. Lawrence is still a strong start. Um Tui Enoka is a solid
28:21option because you have that um projected game flow of them winning, of them scoring a decent amount of points.
28:28And then Parker Washington is going to project really well. Um Brian Thomas has a really difficult corner match up against Cleveland. Parker Washington
28:35should avoid uh the tougher match up for the most part. Should be someone they move around a lot more. I would play
28:40Parker Washington if you drafted him. Um after that, it's tough. I mean, uh Jacksonville is the number one defense in the week, so definitely play
28:48uh them. But, I would not play Myers. I would not play Brian Thomas.
28:52Um, C-Rod, I want to see it for a week first, and you know, it's going to be more early down production against a
28:57team that, you know, um has a very strong defense overall um last season.
29:03You know, relatively easy, I guess, above average uh match-up for uh running back rushing, not good for running back receiving. So, you could see it happen
29:11with Rodriguez, but um I I I I wouldn't play personally, and you just probably do not have to at all. So, Lawrence,
29:17Tuin, Parker Washington, Jags D, really wouldn't be going to anything else on the Jacksonville side, uh but you could see things fall apart.
29:24I think why you should be excited for that spot is more so if the Browns just stink, and they just just way more
29:31possessions in total for Jacksonville, there's more opportunities to score points for them.
29:36Next up, we've got Falcons at Saints. 41 and a half point total. We've got the uh Falcons at Saints. Falcons at Steelers.
29:4441 and a half point total. Steelers three-point home favorites.
29:48Falcons side.
29:50Winnable game. Uh, I don't think the Falcons are going to be projected to win a ton of games. Uh, the problem is, you
29:54know, Tua's the starting quarterback, terrible in camp, projecting as a quarterback 31 right now. Uh, 19.25 isn't awful for an implied total, but
30:03it's not amazing. Um, Pittsburgh, you know, at Pittsburgh, early season, it's not a spot I really want to be playing in. And when uh Tua's
30:12my quarterback, you know, it just makes it a little bit less appealing. So, certain studs, Bijan, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, play them. Uh,
30:20don't be going to any ancillary players.
30:22Uh, just expect worse production than normal. Like, this is not a smash spot for Bijan. It's not an amazing spot for
30:28Pittman or for London. I think you just kind of have to play them and cross your fingers, but I'm not expecting great
30:34production on the Falcons side. For the Steelers side, um kind of a similar-ish story. It's not like like even as home
30:41favorites, they're projected 22.25. You know, this isn't an offense I'm projecting, you know, a lot of production to.
30:47And I want to see it for these wide receivers. You've got Metcalf and Pittman. I mean, both of them like didn't even really practice in training
30:53camp for a lot of it. Are they going to mix in Roman Wilson and Jeremy Jeremy Bernard and how much do they mix them
30:59in? Do they use Freiermuth and Darren or Darnell Washington a decent amount?
31:06I don't really know how this target share is going to shape out. And so if you can bench these guys, I probably
31:11would. They project okay. Metcalf top one as a flex option, but they're fine.
31:16Better plays are the running backs. Rico and Warren. Listen, they dump off the running backs a ton. I'm projecting, you know, 1.8 receptions for Rico, 2.9 for
31:26Warren. That doesn't sound like a lot, but you know, if these guys are going to get, you know, five on average, it means
31:31they can push for like seven or eight receptions at running back. That alone's going to give them a solid floor. And if
31:36they're winning, you know, both these guys could hit like double-digit rush attempts. So, we don't really know what this what's going to
31:42be. It's why I have Rico as a running back 24 right now. Warren as a running back 26. Kind of like, you know,
31:48basically Rico is the last strong start in a 12-team league as a running back 24, flex option for Warren. But they're
31:53very close, you know, about 11 to 11 and 1/2 half PPR points as a projection.
31:57That's pretty solid, you know, at running back two, at, you know, your flex option. They're decent plays this week. You want that positive game script
32:05for them, but you know, I'm not like terrified of the Falcons defense. And I do think the Steelers probably win this
32:11game. And if Tua just completely falls apart, that could be really positive for the running backs who again are going to
32:16get a lot of dump offs from Aaron Rodgers. But wide receivers a little bit weary of them.
32:23All right, next up. Jets at Titans.
32:25Probably the worst game of the week. 38 and 1/2 point total. Titans right now 1 and 1/2 point favorites. I've seen this
32:30kind of flip-flop a little bit. I'm a little surprised I don't want to say I'm too surprised because the Titans are
32:35home. That just gives you a little bit more. Uh but I do feel like the Jets are just like a better team than the Titans
32:40are.
32:41And I feel like I trust Geno a little bit more than Cam Akers, which is kind of crazy to say. Um at least to start
32:46the year because the Titans are kind of learning that new offense, and it doesn't seem like it's going very well.
32:50But, um for the Jets side, uh basically play Hall and play Garrett Wilson. I think it's possible that Adoree' Jackson has a larger role than
33:01we're expecting in week one. I think it's possible that Geno is like okay and that, you know, the Titans are so bad on
33:07offense that the Jets get so many more, you know, total plays than normal, and that's how they get there. There's some
33:12people who are also a little bit excited about this Jets offense. But at the end of the day, that's projection-based, like just
33:19we don't know that that's going to happen. So, you can't be going there unless you're in a super, super deep league. Play Breece Hall, play Garrett
33:25Wilson until they give us a reason not to play them, and don't really play anyone else on this offense. And then
33:30the Titans side, man, I would want to see it. Like truly, um the Titans defense projects really well. Maybe you'll have to adjust that a little bit
33:38because I don't think the Jets going to be as bad on offense as last season.
33:42You've got Garrett Wilson back, that alone should help out a lot. But you've got Geno Smith there, that's going to help out as well. I do think again the
33:50um coaching staff upgraded a little bit for the scheme will help somewhat. Um but at the end of the day, they were terrible
33:58on defense last year, so that's kind of why uh the Titans are projecting so well right now. Um but but also, I mean, the Jets are
34:05projected 18.5 points, which means they could easily score like 13 or 14 points, and that's good for the opposing defense. Uh so, you can definitely,
34:12obviously, play the Titans projecting them as number three. But beyond that, it's like I want to wait and see for Carnell Tate. What's the split between
34:19Tate and Wan'Dale? Again, a good spot, and if you had to play Carnell Tate, I think that's fine. But I don't know how
34:27this target share is going to look. I don't know if this offense is going to look like a dumpster to to start the
34:30year. And you probably didn't draft these guys as starters, so I wouldn't play them.
34:34And right now, Tony Pollard projects okay. I feel like I need to um merge the split a little bit between Pollard and Spears. Pollard right now is
34:41the running back 16, 13 half PPR points.
34:44Projecting really well because it was the number one rushing match-up last season. Uh Spears running back 39. I just feel like I'm only giving Spears
34:50six rush attempts, and then 15.6 for Tony Pollard. I think that's going to be a little bit closer. We are going to see
34:56more of the receiving production for Spears, but I think I want to bring that gap a little bit closer uh this uh this
35:03week. So, I think Pollard will be more of a streaming option, uh but fine because, you know, this is one of
35:10the only games that the Titans might win this season.
35:14Next up, uh we've got the first 4:00 game. So, uh Commanders at Eagles. We've got a 45 and 1/2 point total. We've got
35:22the Eagles 4 and 1/2 point home favorites. I don't know. I feel like the Eagles should be favored by like six or
35:28six and 1/2. Probably not seven, but like six or six and 1/2 points. I just feel like the Eagles are definitely the
35:33better team. Not the greatest reports out of camp from the Commanders. Um Eagles have a really, really strong defense. You can see it here. I mean,
35:40just really brutal. Um I don't know. I I I don't really see why it's only 4 and 1/2 points in favor of
35:46the Eagles, who are also playing at home. Like I just think the Eagles are going to win this one fairly easily.
35:51But, uh on the Commanders side, you can stream Jahan Dotson. Um you can maybe put in the flex spot uh Chig Okonkwo
35:57Merritt or Terry McLaurin. Um But, a team where I want to see it, right? How much does Diggs impact things? What is the actual target share
36:06on offense? Are they actually throwing the running backs at a higher rate? What is the split between Rashad White and Jalen Hurts? Is Jalen Hurts actually
36:13getting targets? Like, is this offensive line terrible? Like, can they do anything against the Eagles? Like, there's so many questions I have for the
36:18Washington offense.
36:20I just really don't want to start any of them. I would say uh Dotson and McLaurin are the two where like you drafted them
36:25kind of to be starters, and if Daniels is the only quarterback you have to roll with him. Uh so don't don't like go to
36:32free agency and stream someone over Jaden Daniels, but if you drafted Jaden Daniels and you know uh back-end quarterback that does project
36:40really well this week, I could see it again just cuz the matchup is so tough.
36:43But for the most part you're probably playing Daniels and you're probably playing McLaurin. I just I really am not excited about the Commanders offense
36:50this week. It's a very difficult road matchup for them. On the Eagles side, you see all the must-starts and it makes
36:56sense, right? You lose A.J. Brown, you upgrade the coordinator, of course these guys are going to look good. Play Hurts, Saquon, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert if
37:05you have them, they should be in your starting lineups. All green for all of them. Um And then Dontayvion Wicks is honestly
37:11not a bad play. He's not going to project as a streaming option. No way you actually have to go there. But if
37:16you were in a 14- or 16-team league, if you drafted some guys who are injured or have really difficult matchups, he is
37:21projecting right now as the wide receiver 38. Like he's actually a pretty solid play. Washington had a very bad defense last season. We will see if that
37:29holds, but he's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets and obviously three wide receiver sets. He's going to
37:34have a decent target share to start the season. He is underlying a relatively talented wide receiver. He's probably going to have a better week than people
37:41think. Probably going to be talking about him on the waiver wire show uh this coming Monday because he's actually probably going to have a pretty solid
37:49day. I mean, would you think Wicks, you know, 3.8 receptions, 45 yards? He could have five for 70. That is a thing that
37:55could happen this weekend. Um again, probably don't have to, but I I think you could definitely play him as a streaming option.
38:03Next up, definitely a blowout. Uh Arizona at the Chargers, 46 and a half point total, 10 and a half point home
38:10favorites for the Chargers. That is a 28.5 point projection. I think that is number one on the week. For Arizona, I mean,
38:18you basically have to play McBride obviously every single week. Uh but I'm not playing Brissett, uh, Marvin Mims Jr. I want to see it first. I don't want
38:25to get them in the starting lineups.
38:27Um, Jeremiah Love, I want to see. So, they said they're optimistic he's going to play. I want to hear for reports to come
38:33out. Uh, of course I'm projecting a little bit for Allgeier, about eight carries, one reception for Allgeier.
38:38That's going to eat into production for Jeremiah Love, especially because they're 10 and 1/2 point road favorites.
38:45So, while Love can rack up receptions, and I think he will, we're not going to see a lot of rush attempts for the, um,
38:52for the Arizona side here. So, if you drafted Love in round three as your like second running back and you're like, "Oh, my other options aren't that
39:00great." Just start Jeremiah Love. You know, he's talented enough. Uh, but watch the projection. I Again, I'm projecting right now limited as running
39:06back 29. So, even if they come out and say he's going to be limited, well, that's what I'm expecting right now, and
39:12he still projects as a flex option. So, you're probably just playing him. Uh, but I'm not excited to play against the
39:16Chargers. It's a good defense. Their offense is great, and they can run the ball now. So, they can get up, run it, run it, run it, and you're just
39:28not going to see that many plays on the Arizona side. I think Arizona's also going to try and lean more run heavy
39:33overall. That could limit plays. So, it's not that exciting on the Arizona side this week, but Jeremiah Love, you probably just kind of have to play him
39:39this week. On the Chargers side, you can play everyone. So, even though, um, they, you know, are probably going to run the ball at a high rate in the
39:45second half, they could score 34, 37 points. I mean, like truly Arizona could fall apart here. Um, we could see this
39:51offense really click. Um, I'm very excited about week one for the Chargers.
39:56Absolutely play Justin Herbert.
39:58Absolutely play Amari Cooper.
40:00Lad McConkey. Um, I think you can play QJ as well because, I don't know, I just have this sense that like he's going to
40:06catch like a 40 or 50 yard touchdown in week one. I feel like McDaniels is going to come out there and just try and light
40:11the world on fire in this first game.
40:13He'll have every opportunity to because I I expect the Arizona offense to do a lot on their end. Um So, I'll see about bumping his
40:20projection just a little bit. Um I don't know. The one thing basically why I'm hesitant in bumping that is Trey Harris. Projecting right now at 72,
40:31don't touch him in um in your starting lineup or anything.
40:35But, I don't know what the switch is going to be. That's something we talked about a lot in this off season was is
40:39Trey Harris playing in one wide receiver sets? Is he mixing in in 12? I do think QJ starts the season as that starter,
40:45but they love Trey Harris. He's going to be used in blocking a lot. And you know what? If they get up by 14 points and
40:51they're running it a lot, they want Trey Harris to be out there. And so, we could see this nasty more limited for Quentin
40:57than we're expecting. But, at the end of the day, I don't know. I feel like I got to bump him inside the top like 35 cuz
41:01like there's going to be touchdowns scored in this game. I just feel like QJ gets one of those. But, again, start the
41:06running backs there. Uh and I'm very excited for uh Keaton Mitchell, but you can't play him in week one. I'm only
41:12projecting three carries and one reception just because he missed, you know, a good chunk of time. It wasn't that much, but it was like a week, week
41:18and a half of practices. He's back at practice now. Uh we'll see if there's any reports on being limited. I just
41:23feel like in that first week, they're not going to go out there and try and give him a ton of touches. Um but, I'm
41:28excited to see the potential there. If they can give him like five, six, seven touches, I'll be excited about that in
41:33the future ramping him up. But, when in doubt, kind of play a Chargers player this week because they're probably going to score a decent amount. Uh and if, you
41:39know, your guy's going to be live to score multiple touchdowns.
41:42Next up, we've got uh Packers at Vikings. We've got a 45 and a half point total. Uh and we've got one
41:49and a half point home favorites for the Vikings side.
41:53For the Packers, uh they're not going to have Jacobs. And so, MarShawn Lloyd is going to be a strong start running back 20 to start
42:00things off.
42:01I'm still a little bit hesitant. Uh we have a road match up with the Vikings.
42:05The Vikings are a very, very, very good defense. Uh Jordan Love is definitely one of those quarterbacks that can just crumble when things aren't going
42:11perfectly for him. Um we'll see what happens, but I don't want to be attacking the Vikings defense really in any capacity. And I'm
42:19also somewhat hesitant like are they actually going to give Marshaun Lloyd this like huge amount of volume? Like is he actually going to get a ton of
42:25touches or is he going to be someone who has to kind of win a little bit more on efficiency? I don't know. I'm projecting
42:3018 touches and he's only running back 20 right now, but he could easily have 13 or 14. So, if you can bench Lloyd, I probably would.
42:39Um Christian Watson more so someone I would like to start, but really only Tucker Kraft is coming in with like a
42:47solid projection. I would play Tucker Kraft if you have him. But look at all this negative. It's the 30th match up
42:52for running backs, 32nd for wide receiver, 29th for tight end. It's just all red. Uh running backs, you know, they lean a little bit more into running
42:59backs against um the Vikings because they're so good um against wide receivers and tight ends and then also because the Vikings offense was bad last
43:07year and teams decided to like run the ball against them, but you do not want to attack the Vikings defense. So, I
43:12don't really want to play any of these guys, uh but I would say honestly Christian Watson would probably be the one I would try and get in there if I
43:18can. Um Vikings side obviously play Justin Jefferson, but no one else is an obvious start. You can stream Kyler, um but I kind of want
43:27to see the offense play out first before going to him. I don't think you go to Addison just yet. I think Mason and and
43:34Aaron Jones, we really want to see that split. I have it being relatively even right now. We kind of want to see it
43:39first. I want Jordan Mason where the Vikings are seven point home favorites uh where the offense is clicking. We just don't know how good the offense is
43:47going to be yet. We don't expect this to be a blowout. It should be a very close game on both sides and probably a lower
43:53scoring game as well. So, really just Justin Jefferson on the uh Minnesota side. Final 4:00 game is going to be uh
44:01Miami at the Raiders. So, uh one of the only winnable games for both of these teams this season. 4 and 1/2 point
44:06total, Raiders three and 1/2 point home favorites.
44:09On the Miami side, obviously start Raheem Mostert. This is one of the games where even though they're projected to lose, and we're only projected 18 and
44:171/2 points, this is one of the games where Miami could score 24 points and win the game. So, you've got to be
44:21starting Raheem Mostert every week really, but definitely this week.
44:25Aside from that though, I mean, if you want to stream the Miami defense, go for it. It's probably the the bold out
44:29there. I don't know if I would do it. I probably need to bump them down a little bit to the defense seven right now.
44:34Um But, I wouldn't go to these receivers.
44:36Like, I'm excited to see Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas play. We'll see what the role is for Greg Dulcich, but I don't
44:43want to go to the receivers. It really just is stream Malik if you want to.
44:47We'll see what the production kind of looks like on that front. I think I need to fix the data. I'm just looking at
44:52that here. Probably because one of my sheets has LVR and the other one has LV.
44:57But, we'll we'll see about fixing that.
44:59But, at the end of the day, for Miami, start Raheem Mostert and just see with everything else. Hopefully, Malik will looks good. Hopefully, Chris Bell looks
45:07good and he'll be like a waiver wire option for us.
45:10But, start Raheem Mostert and don't touch anyone else. We're not seeing anything on the Raiders side unfortunately. Apologize for that one.
45:16Again, it's probably a mismatch in the sheets, but you know what to do for the Raiders. You know you're starting Brock
45:21Bowers every single week. And if Ashton Jeanty is healthy enough to play, it means he's probably getting at least half the touches in a home match up
45:29against the Dolphins where it's one of the only potentially positive game scripts of the year. Even though they're probably limited, you're
45:37playing Jeanty, you're playing Brock Bowers in every match up, and you're just not playing anyone else on the Raiders side. Sunday night game is going
45:46to be a fun one. Dallas at the Giants.
45:49Dallas only two and 1/2 point road favorites. 48 and 1/2 point total. That is largely because Dallas just plays so much worse historically on the road. For
45:57the Dallas side, I do expect them to win here. The Giants did not have great camp reports for their offense. They're
46:02learning the new system, and so it just has been a struggle for them. We also don't know if Malik Nabers is going to
46:08play, and if he does play, he will be limited. So, I really think the spread should be a little bit wider for Dallas,
46:12but I get it cuz they play so much worse again on the road. Um for the Dallas side, I think you're just playing Zach
46:18if you have them. You're playing Javonte Williams. You're playing CeeDee Lamb.
46:22You're playing George Pickens. I really wouldn't contemplate it. Obviously, Aubrey is typically the number one uh kicker. I think you can stream Jake
46:29Ferguson. I'm not excited about him because of Flaherty, only projecting 2.7 receptions, 34 yards right now for Flaherty. But, if he's actually out there in every
46:39single 11 personal set, and they basically run 11 personal all the time, that's not great for Ferguson. You've got two alpha wide receivers, and now a
46:46third tight end or wide receiver that's going to get consistent volume. That's like how what can the target share really be for Jake Ferguson? I don't
46:54think that high. So, again, 10 and 15, 7.3 points, you can go there. I just don't think it's that great of a play. I
47:00will play everyone else on um Dallas. Not yet for uh Flaherty.
47:05Hopefully, we can eventually start playing him. And then on the uh Giant side, it's tough because I don't know the split here as well. I do think Najee is
47:15going to be more ramped up. So, I'm not projecting much from Najee. I also don't know who they're going to start because
47:19I feel like one of Najee or Matt Breida or Gary Brightwell Jr. is going to be inactive and basically um give that
47:25production to the other one. But, I don't know like there's conflicting reports on Saquon Barkley. Like, some sources are saying like, you know, it's
47:32like, "Oh, they're like, you know, they They're saying, 'Can you handle 20 touches? You're getting 20 touches every single week. 20 carries every single
47:37week.'" Um and then there's sources out there that are like, "It's going to be more of a split. They don't fully trust
47:42the foot yet." It's like, "I don't know what to think." Uh but at the end of the day, um and Dallas also is one of those
47:47defenses going to be way better than this. So, number seven for running backs last year, number one for wide receivers, 22 for tight ends. Dallas has
47:54a much stronger defense than last season. So, they're not going to be one we're looking into attack. Once you see these numbers update in a few weeks, um
48:00well, they'll update every week, but like in a few weeks you'll see them much more updated um because of data from the
48:05year, and Dallas is going to be a good defense. And so, I don't know. I want to see it from the
48:10Giants side. I I don't know if you can play Neighbors, and that's the tough part of drafting him in round three is
48:16week one, if he plays, what's it going to look like? Obviously, we're going to hear reports, um but it's you're somewhat hesitant uh just because
48:27he could go out there and play 30% of snaps. So, I want to see a report. I think we will Friday or Saturday. We'll
48:32know like what the snap share or what the snap um cap really is, um but it's it's scary kind of playing him
48:39in the first week. Um but yeah, I probably will play Skataboe.
48:42I think Dart is fine to stream, but like if Neighbors wasn't playing or was very limited, I'd be a little bit more
48:47worried about Jackson Dart. Uh and honestly, likely if Neighbors was out, likely he'll probably jump up to a must-start, but even regularly, like
48:55he's a great streaming option this week.
48:57Uh and I would not go to like the backup wide receivers or running backs on the Giants. Finally, game of the week,
49:04Monday night football, 42 and 1/2 point total, Denver at KC. Uh KC three-point home favorite. So, Denver probably going to be their lowest implied total of the
49:14season, 19.75. There'll be plenty of weeks where Denver's projected to like 25 to 27 points, but a tough spot. Both of these teams have very strong
49:23defenses. You're opening the season at Arrowhead. That's absolutely brutal. So, don't get too cute here. Uh don't go to some of these secondary players. I would
49:32not play Sutton. I would not play Pat Bryant. I'd only play Dulcich if you absolutely need him, which you probably do not. I would not play Harvey. I'd
49:39want to see how this running back room shakes out. I would not stream Bonitto.
49:42It truly would be I'd play Waddle and expect worse production than normal, and I would not play any of these other
49:47players on Denver. And then for Kansas City, um I really I wouldn't play Mahomes against uh the Denver defense. I don't love
49:55Rashee Rice. I probably need to bump this projection just a little bit, but I don't love Rashee Rice. That's a brutal
50:00match up for him. You're not really going to the kicker in such a low total game.
50:06Kelsey, I'd love to see him out there running routes a little bit first before starting him. Worthy I don't trust yet.
50:12So, truly it's the running back. Ken Walker, I think you he's going to project pretty low, you know, running back 18 for me 12 and 1/2 half PPR
50:20points, but um yeah, just play him. You drafted him the 1-2 turn. He should get a ton of touches projecting 17.4 touches as you can see
50:28there. I think you kind of have to just play him.
50:31So, that's it. That is every single match up in week one. Something I want from all of you. I designed this page
50:37over the last couple of weeks. I want to know is there something visually you'd like to see differently. I do think I'm
50:43going to try and get head shots kind of up here. I think it just looks better when you have like the player head shot
50:47on the screen there. But, is there anything else you would want to see? Is there anything you'd want to see moved
50:52around? I think it looks pretty solid from like you can see all the detail projections from every player.
50:58You can go in. I don't know if you guys want me to show this a little bit more.
51:01When I go in and click like running back the running back metrics bump up a little bit and we can see only the
51:06running backs. Maybe if you want me to do that a little bit more, it's just tough kind of talk I bounce
51:11around players a lot. So, like you can see just one position and how things kind of shake out. I feel like all helps
51:18me talk through it a little bit more from a game environment standpoint, but if you need me to jump through those a
51:22little bit more, I can do that. Yeah, anything you want to see visually change in this one, please let me know. But,
51:29that'll do it for this one. Good luck to everyone. You probably will not see me again before the Wednesday game before
51:36Thursday game. I'll probably do a video on Friday kind of talk about my favorite picks for Underdog this week. But, please leave a like for week one being
51:43here. Please subscribe to the channel if you are new and I'll catch you all on the next one.

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