0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here back with another video. Today, we're going over players who got a little bit unlucky last season by looking at
0:06expected fantasy points. Expected fantasy points are really just a metric for usage, right? Five carries from the 50ard line are worth a whole lot less
0:16than five goal line carries. And so, you can spot regression candidates by looking at elite players getting elite volume, but who happen to just
0:25underperform a little bit. Usually, that's to do with touchdowns. We know touchdowns are highly volatile. If you get a lot of red zone usage, a lot of
0:33targets near the goal line, uh you're just going to have a lot of expected fantasy points. And if the touchdowns don't go your way, you're going to
0:39underperform. Uh so if we can identify really good players who are just underperforming by a little bit, then we can definitely capitalize uh especially
0:47if their ADPs, you know, bottom out with their touchdowns bottoming out the year prior. And in my eyes, no one encapsulates that more than Justin
0:55Jefferson. This season heading into last year, Jefferson had 87 and a half receiving yards per game. In all five seasons of his career, he averaged 90 or
1:06more in four consecutive years. And then if you look at just his efficiency metrics, absolutely insane. 14.9 yards perception, was the worst of his career.
1:1564.7% catch rate, worst of his career, 9.7 yards per target, worst of his career. So, those are his career worst numbers heading into last year, and they
1:24all just cratered last season. Um, the efficiency went way down, and he only scored two touchdowns all year despite
1:339.4 expected touchdowns. Uh, that is the biggest touchdown underperformance, I think, of any player, but definitely among all wide receivers last season.
1:43Um, and you look at him, it's like there's really no debating that Jefferson's good, right? He's objectively a top three wide receiver.
1:49You can't have a conversation about who the best wide receiver in the NFL is if you do not include Justin Jefferson.
1:56Very good argument for him being number one still. Uh Kevin Oonnell also I think people kind of forget, right? We're now
2:03in on like Kell Moore. We're really in on like Ben Johnson, right? They're kind of being the guys that are being hyped
2:08up right now. And Kevin Oonnell is kind of like thrown to the wayside because of what happened last season. He is
2:15absolutely still an elite play designer, an elite play caller. It was just that the quarterback carousel of McCarthy,
2:23Wentz, uh, UNH alum like myself, Max Brosmer, uh, they were all just horrific last season. So, despite the fact that the play designs were good and
2:34Jefferson, Addison, they were getting, they just could not get them the football. This season, you're getting a nice little discount on Justin
2:42Jefferson. He goes 12th overall. And I don't think that's like super wrong, right? I'm not saying that Jefferson should go top three this season. He
2:49shouldn't. There's a lot of running backs we really want to get in round one because of the drop off. So, it's not
2:54like a horrible ADP, which also means I don't think it's going to move that much. I don't think this is some huge
3:00correction where you're going to be looking at this video in two weeks being like Nikki goes fourth overall. That's not going to happen, right? He's not
3:06going to go fourth overall this season.
3:08So, you get a really nice discount at, you know, in a 12 team league going at the the 1213 turn round one two turn
3:14there. Uh that is a really awesome range because you can pair him with your favorite running back. There's going to be a running back on the board at that
3:21point who's really good who you're going to like. You're gonna have options there. And if somehow not, like in the mock draft video we just did. Okay. If
3:29there wasn't, you would pair him with Aman Raw and you get an amazing start to your draft. But you're going to have
3:33another running back or a running back.
3:35You can pair with Justin Jefferson at the turn there. So you have the potential to lock up a top three player
3:40at two different positions if things go right this season. Uh early reports are also right now that Kyler is playing ahead of McCarthy and he's well ahead of
3:49him. Listen, we're in early June, right?
3:51We don't care about any of these reports. So, if that continues, that's basically the thing I want to watch this off season is once actual training camp
3:59starts in July. If they go out there and it is obvious to everyone watching that Kyler is much better than McCarthy, he's
4:06playing ahead of him. He's going to be the starter early in the season. He'd need to be really bad to lose that job.
4:12If that happens, I'm going to love Justin Jefferson at the tail end of round one. If we get McCarthy and Kyler
4:21battling into July, into August, and we either don't know who the starter is going to be, or it looks 50/50, and we
4:29think McCarthy might take back over, then we pump the brakes, and we say, "Okay, we could still see a repeat of
4:35last season. I don't know how much I want to do this. Maybe I lean more towards a double running back start at
4:40the end of round one, but as things stands right now, you can get Justin Jefferson at the tail end of round one.
4:46Whether you have the 10, 11, or 12 pick, there's a good chance you can get him.
4:49And you can pair him with an elite running back. That feels like a great start. Uh let's not forget that the man
4:55is second in receiving yards per game in NFL history 27 season in a dome. Fifth best passing strength of schedule. second best
5:05passing strength of schedule in the fantasy playoffs. Yeah, I'm going to take that uh 12th overall and just kind of hope that Kyler isn't dust. Another
5:14wide receiver uh due for some positive touchdown regression is Mike Evans, which is a little bit terrifying that Mike Evans is due for positive touchdown
5:22regression. Uh it's not a huge total, right? He only underperformed by two and a half, but that's because he only played seven and a half games. So, he
5:28was on pace to underperform, you know, by like five or six touchdowns last season. But of course, that could have self-corrected in season as well. I
5:37think the appeal here is just like, you know, given the landing spot on the 49ers, the touchdown ceiling is insane.
5:43I know he's going to be 33 when the season starts, but we've seen a lot more um players are taking care of their
5:51themselves more. Uh teams are forced to manage reps a little bit more these days. And so, we're seeing careers trend longer and longer. Uh that's not to say
6:02that he can't get injured, right? He was injured most of last season, but also like the broken collar bone, like that's
6:08not a repeatable injury. Uh Mike Evans has stayed very healthy throughout his career. He takes exceptional care of his body. You know that, you know, he could
6:18get hurt, but he's no more likely than someone else who's also in their like low30s. So, I don't think it's massively
6:25risky. You also think it's not like he's going in round one, two, or three. He's going at the tail end of round five at
6:30the round five six turn. And I'm just getting like Devonte Adams vibes from Evans this year. I know they're slightly different players, but they're both
6:38absolute monsters in the red zone to where every single time you get inside the 10 yard line, that is who you're
6:43looking to. Every time Brock Bowers drops back inside the 10, inside the 5 yard line, he's not going to be looking
6:49to Pierall. He's going to be looking to uh Mike Evans. And they're probably going to connect at a pretty high rate.
6:55plus the 49ers are going to be in the red zone a ton this season. And again, I get the vibes from last year because
7:00it's it's a similar thing, right? Like we we knew Adams was still like a top 10 wide receiver heading into last season.
7:06Um when you like adjust maybe not like between the 20s, but when you adjust for how dominant he is in the red zone and
7:14how valuable that is for a football team, just being able to know that like once they get inside the 5 yardd line,
7:19just throw the ball to Adams and you're going to score a touchdown. That's really valuable. So, we knew that he was
7:24also turning 33 last season. It was just hard to go all in on him because you had a wide receiver changing teams. That's
7:31old. But, I think we have to maybe get out of that mold when we know the wide receiver is still good. The team would
7:35not invest in them if they didn't think they could stay healthy. And he doesn't need to stay like crazy healthy to where
7:41it's like he's on the field 100% of snaps, he's getting, you know, 15 targets a game. All we need are the
7:46touchdowns. And so he can regress as a player a little bit, not be as dominant between the 20s because we know the
7:5249ers offense is highly efficient. He'll be great downfield. It'll be great schemed usage. And when they get into the red zone, he can dominate. He could
7:59lead the NFL in touchdowns this season because, you know, every time they get into the red zone, the ball is being
8:05schemed out to McAffrey, KD, or Evans.
8:07And KD's probably not going to be fully healthy to start the season. So, I mean, my goodness, like you're getting that at
8:11the round five, six turn. Think about also um I'll talk about like a team you can kind of build in a second. The
8:18you're getting the ball so often in the red zone that the player with the third most targets inside the 5yd line last
8:25season was Jawan Jennings at least among wide receivers. So think about that Mike Evans is a significantly better red zone threat than Jawan Jennings is. And yet
8:34Jawan Jennings was tied for third most targets inside the 5yd line. Yeah, I'm thinking Evans might be number one this season with Jennings now gone to the
8:43Vikings. Yeah, I I think like just thinking about the ADP teams you can build are just insane. Like if you want
8:49to start off uh because if you go at the five six turn, that means tail end of round one. So tail end of round one,
8:53let's say you grab Genty and Squin, I don't know, pick your two favorite at the tail end of round one. So you go
8:59those two and then you kind of wait on running back after that. You go like Devont Smith lad at the 34 turn and at
9:05the 56 turn you can grab Mike Evans and a top five quarterback and now you've got two elite running backs. Mike Evans
9:12is your third wide receiver and you have a top five quarterback. Like that's an amazing start. You could do the Jefferson start we just talked about a
9:18second ago. Go Genty Jefferson in round one. Go ETN Devontto Smith at the 34 turn and then you still can go Evans top
9:26five quarterback. Like I feel like both of those builds are exceptionally strong. And if Mike Evans has the season that he could have where he's racking
9:33up, you know, 13, 14, 15 receiving touchdowns and he's year three with also elite quarterback and two elite running backs. Like I don't know. I feel like
9:43Bills are insane with where he's going right now. I would expect his ADP to rise. Uh there are no names honestly
9:49that really stand out at running back.
9:51There's no like crazy underperformer at that position. But one interesting name that does catch my eye is Manungai. Um he underperformed by about two points
10:00per game. He scored about two fewer touchdowns than expected. Um and you know to have that on a really good team
10:07in a rookie season. The coaching staff really talked him up last season being like you know I think the league kind of
10:14passed on him right. He was a seventh round pick. Um and which also means that uh even the Bears passed on him many
10:20times. So, I don't think anyone was expecting when they drafted him to for him to be as reliable as he was. And he
10:27wasn't fully like Ben Johnson's David Montgomery, but in a way, he was like David Montgomery light. And so, you think moving forward, is that in his
10:35range of outcomes where he's the goal lineback, he's the guy they use between the 20s on early downs. That's a possibility. Uh we did talk earlier this
10:42week about strength of schedule and how the Bears do have a hard strength of schedule, but how I don't think that
10:48really impacts uh Caleb Williams, the pass catchers. I don't think it impacts them that much. I think it's more of an
10:54impact on Manungai and Swift. And really Manungai more than Swift. So that's still a concern in my mind that like when you have a lot of games that the
11:03Bears are going to maybe not be dominating in, it's going to be close back and forth affair. you know, you're not getting as many of those clear
11:10victories for Chicago where they're winning by 14 to 20 points. They're piling on the second half. They're running the ball along with Nungai. If
11:17those don't exist as much, maybe um the upside isn't there as much. But I feel like there's still a case here to where
11:25like if DeAndre Swift got injured, who are you looking at as the other backups on this team? What? Roshan Johnson and
11:30like Britain Brown or something like that? There's nothing. And so it's a very cheap way to gain exposure to the Bears offense while also unlocking a
11:38potential path to I mean let's be honest if if Swift went down every week you'd rank Manungai as a top 10 12 running
11:47back pretty much regardless of matchup because you'd expect 17 to 20 opportunities every one of those games and again cheap exposure right Lavlin
11:54and Burden are great picks but they're expensive going in round four Swift and Adun go round five Caleb round six manangai round eight and So, in a
12:03reddraft league, round eight, picking him up as what, your third or fourth running back, there's not a whole lot of risk. And if he does have kind of like
12:11this like David Montgomery light role, even if you're sitting on that occasionally using it for buys and injuries at running back, too, you still
12:19have that ceiling case of, well, you know, Swift has stayed healthy the last two seasons, but any running back could get injured in the NFL. Every running
12:25back is one cut away from being done.
12:27Really, every player, but especially at running back, it's such a difficult position. and there's so much wear and tear on your body. He's one cut away
12:33from being done for the season. And if that were to happen, Manungai instantly elevates at around 880p, still getting some weekly value there. And someone
12:42who, you know, had a really solid role as a seventh round rookie in year one. I mean, he had 11 touches per game last
12:48season. Let's not forget 11 touches per game on a lead offense who's set for touchdown luck in round eight of this
12:55year's terrible like back end of running back. I don't know. I think that makes a lot of sense this season at tight end. A
13:00huge underperformer is Tyler Warren. I'm having a little bit of a tough time figuring out what to do with him this
13:06season. My ideal outcome thus far. My like ideal plan for a draft has been grabbing one of either Bowers in round
13:15two, Loveland in round four, grabbing one of those two if I miss out on one of them, going double late tight end. I
13:23don't want to be targeting this mid-range of tight end. Uh especially rounds like 6 through 10. Historically, it's just not really good range to
13:31target. You're losing more than winning there. But Tyler Warren is still pretty interesting. He was the biggest touchdown underperformer among tight
13:40ends last season. He finished second among tight ends in targets inside the 10 yard line. And that's even playing alongside Michael Pitman Jr. who was
13:48tied for eighth among wide receivers in the same metric. Uh believe it or not, uh the Colts actually ran the 10th most
13:55plays inside the 10 yard line last season. And that's with Daniel Jones only playing 13 games. They had a couple games with a 44 year old Philip Rivers.
14:03They had Riley Leonard. Like I feel like people don't remember because it happened in the first half of last year, but for the first half of last season,
14:11the Colts were like the number one team in the NFL. They looked absolutely fantastic. And so even as a rookie on
14:19that team, Tyler Warren was doing great.
14:21His pace with Daniel Jones at quarterback last year was 82 receptions, almost a thousand yards and six touchdowns. He ends up below that, of
14:30course, because when you drop down from Daniel Jones into a 44 year old Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard, of course, you're going to decrease in production.
14:39But that was really good production there. Again, he's due for touchdown regression the positive way. His main uh red zone competition for targets is
14:47gone. Tyler Warren's now in year two.
14:50I don't know. The one that gets me is who's the top target here? I think Josh DS is going to play on the outside. So,
14:57that's the one thing with the Colts offense is do they still view Josh Downs as slot only or do they allow him to
15:03play on the outside? I think they should. I think they will. We don't know yet. But even if DS plays on the
15:07outside, even if Pierce obviously is going to play on the outside as well, those two are not like consistent proven number one targets. Is there a chance,
15:19maybe it's a low chance, but is there a chance that they almost use Tyler Warren as their top target this season, their
15:25number one quote unquote wide receiver playing tight end, and that he also leads all tight ends in red zone usage, all at a late fifth round ADP. I don't
15:36know, it's just something to think about. I think probably Alec Pierce is still a top target, and I would say D's
15:40behind that. I think those two are still more likely to lead this team in targets than Tyler Warren, but there's absolutely a chance that they view
15:47Warren as the guy they want to feature in this passing attack. And if you get that at the tail end of round five,
15:54that's a pretty good value. So, I think my goal is still to get Bowowers in round two or Loveland in round four. But
16:01as a fallback, if I can't do one of those two things, I do think Tyler Warren at the tail end of round five
16:08still makes a lot of sense. And basically, you can go into the draft saying, "Okay, tail end of round five, I
16:13have a late first round pick. We'll either go running back, running back, or uh we'll go Jefferson and running back."
16:18And then when I get to the tail end of round five, I'm grabbing one of Mike Evans or Tyler Ward. I feel like if you
16:23have a late first round pick, that would be my plan heading into the draft. Then finally, uh we have quarterback where
16:29honestly there's no obvious names that stand out at this position as well, but I think the number one might be Tyler
16:36Shuck. Uh, sounds a little bit strange because you're like, well, how can we know real regression from him if he was
16:41a rookie and he didn't even play a full season? We don't have full data on him.
16:45Uh, fair, but he had a 3.1% passing touchdown rate. We don't know how good he's going to be, but a 3.1% passing
16:53touchdown rate is exceptionally low. It was the second lowest behind or ahead of only Cam Ward last season. That's despite ranking 11th in completion rate,
17:0213th in yards per pass attempt. The team ranked first in pace. Uh, the Saints basically just never made it into the
17:08red zone. Like Tyler Shuck was good. He almost won rookie of the year. He was way better than everyone, myself included, thought he would be last
17:16season. Honestly, even in my most optimistic outlook, he was better than that. So, he was great as a rookie. The problem was even though they were 12th
17:26in plays overall, they ran the fewest plays inside the 10 yard line. They just kind of couldn't finish drives, couldn't get into uh the red zone, the green zone
17:34inside the 10. But then they add in Jordan Tyson who many people think is the top wide receiver prospect in this
17:40draft class. Um definitely top three obviously. Uh but Jordan Tyson a great talent they add in there. Uh Travis Etien another great talent. So the
17:49offense got infused with talent this off season. They move into year two of Kell Moore system. Typically it takes two years even with these elite coordinators
17:59um head coach but like you know the elite coordinators uh calling plays here. uh typically takes a second year.
18:06Typically, it's not they come in in year one and everything clicks and dominates.
18:10It usually is that second, that third season where things really start to click. And so, if it's year two for Shuck, year two for Kell Moore's system,
18:18I don't know. I feel like the touchdown rate is going way up. And if that also goes with the plays going way up, we're
18:24going to see just a skyrocket in value because touchdown rate is a metric of per play, per play, per pass attempt.
18:30How often were you throwing for a touchdown? that was super low. If the rate goes up and the plays go up as
18:37well, well, we're looking at a really high upside here. So, I'm still like somewhat hesitant at around 1180p. I still feel like it should be further
18:45back than that. I just also think that's going to correct. I really think that as we move into July into August when we
18:52really get a lot of especially casual drafters joining back in, I think that top end of quarterback where we're looking in that round like basically
18:59five through seven range, I think that's going to shift up. I think this back half is going to shift a little bit
19:04later because it's more so that this quarterback like 14 through 25 range is just going very early this season. But I
19:12think that's more to do about how just like last season it just happened to be that late quarterback one out. I think
19:17once casual drafters start happening, I think once people do more mock drafts, we're going to see again early quarterback shift up that late round of
19:24quarterback shift back a little bit. And even if he remains the quarterback 18 by 80p, maybe he actually in a hometown
19:30league goes in round 12, in round 13, round 14. And at that point, I think it's a much better pick. So, don't love
19:36the 80 quoteunquote ADP, but positionally as the quarterback 18, that's a great value for Shock. So, uh, those are five players that are due for
19:45some positive touchdown luck this season. I'll do the reverse next week and talk about players who are due for some negative touchdown luck this
19:53season. got a little bit lucky last year. So, make sure you're subscribed on both YouTube and Spotify so you don't miss out on that one. Also, remember you
20:00can mock draft for free on my website all offseason. Uh there's a bunch of strategy data over there as well and of
20:07course improvements to the rankings and tools on my website the fantasy footballadvice.com.
20:13All right, that'll do it for this one.
20:14Thank you all for watching. Leave a like if you are still here and I'll catch you all on the next one.
