Draft For Upside or Safety? - 2026 Fantasy Football Advice
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35 min
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Jul 20, 2026
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Mon, July 20, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. It's Monday.
0:02It's new time and it's time to mark Jeff Monday. Uh we're going to go back to full PPR this week. We've done two late
0:08and a middle. So, we'll do a more early first round pick. I'll try and take four uh to make it a little bit more more
0:14likely we get a wide receiver to start because we've done a lot of running back heavy builds. And maybe I'll just
0:20guarantee that we do. If you know they go running back or wide receiver heavy, I'll just take JSN. Let's do a wide
0:27receiver early start here uh from the four pick and we'll do the the regular format, you know, two running back, two
0:33wide receiver. Uh no, two flex spots.
0:37Let's add a flex spot for this one. All right, enter the draft and we will restart. So, uh it does start normal
0:44Gibbs, Bejian, Chase, and then we would take Puka here. Uh there is going to be a on Wednesday running back rankings,
0:52Friday wide receiver rankings. So, you guys will see that. I think it's top 40 for both roughly. Um but yeah, that's
0:59kind of how the first round goes in my eyes. And let's see. So again, we've done a ton of running back early. I
1:05think um that is how I would probably try and build. But as I've said, the top four is Gibbs, Bejian, Chase, and Puka.
1:12So if you have the 101, 102, you're getting a running back. If you have honestly five through seven, you're probably getting one of McAffrey or JT
1:19in my eyes. If you're past that, maybe you go uh with the JSN if he falls. Uh, but you can pretty easily just say, I
1:26want Genty, I want James Cook, I want Saquon, something like that and figure out wide receiver in the next round or
1:31to go double running back. Like, you have plenty of options in the late first round. Um, but at three and four, I
1:38don't think I'd go with the running back personally. Um, if you wanted to just bring up, and we've done this before
1:44where we said, "Oh, would the team have worked out better if we taken McCaffrey?" And it kind of did at times.
1:50Uh, but especially in full PPR, you know, JSN, Puka, they have such insane ceilings to them that I have it Gibbs,
1:59Bejon, Chase, and Puka. And I would just do that. Uh, one big thing I want to talk about in this video is what you see
2:05in probably the title and the thumbnail, and that is safety versus upside, uh, at different parts of the draft, but also
2:14kind of how it relates to best versus reddraft. So many people are creating content for best baseball and a lot of
2:23times they might not like clearly indicate whether the advice they're kind of talking about is for best baseball versus reddraft. And those of you who
2:30are a little confused by that, reddraft is just like what 99% of you play.
2:34That's just like you show up to your draft in August, you make your one draft each year, that's your team. It's a
2:39managed leagues. You make start sit decisions, trade waiverss, things like that. Uh best ball is where you draft a team, you do nothing after that. It's it
2:47just picks your best lineup every week.
2:48There's no trades, there's no waivers.
2:50So, it's only who did the best draft.
2:52Um, and there's a big difference whether you want to draft for upside in a format like that uh versus a format like
2:58reddraft. So, we'll talk about that difference throughout this one. Uh, and kind of how it relates to the first couple rounds. What I will say is the
3:04first three rounds, you don't have to make that trade-off. Every single player going in the first three rounds, basically, I'd say definitely the first
3:10two, probably first three and a half rounds has great safety, has great upside. There's no player going in the first two rounds, especially that does
3:18not have upside this season. So, you don't have to do the trade-off. We'll start talking about that a little bit after. So, I go with Puka. Personally, I
3:25don't love it when I am forced to start with a wide receiver after that. Um, I think teams do work out better if you
3:31are able to go with that running back, but it's a difficult spot and I recognize why 34 can be difficult for
3:37people because you have Bejan and Gibbs go obviously uh JT McAffrey going to go, you know, Achan, Jenty, Cook, Saquon, Chase Brown, Amar Hampton all off the
3:46board right now. So, I think Ken Walker is probably the last tier two player.
3:49Um, but there's a chance that you get into this tier two and all those running backs are gone and you feel like, am I
3:55forced to take running back at this spot? Honestly, I think just yes. I think you basically just kind of have to
4:00go running back and lock it up because teams just don't work out that well if you continue going wide receiver heavy
4:05here. You're really forced to hit in rounds like four, five, six, seven of running back and you don't want to like
4:10force yourself into that. But we'll see.
4:12Again, let's start the running backs that went uh Josh Allen goes, Brock Bowers goes, and then your classic round one and two wide receivers off the
4:19board. So, if we pull up uh wide receiver, it is Nico Pickkins, Olive, kind of the guys that typically go at
4:25the back half of round two into round three. Um it's Trey McBride at tight end, but we're not going to go there.
4:31It's Lamar quarterback. We're not going to go there. Uh and then running back, we've got Ken Walker kind of the last
4:36remaining like clearly second round running back. Um I think Bree Hall and Love are kind of that turn like that two-3 turn. Uh, and then especially in
4:44full PPR, Derrick Henry really falls off because he could have, you know, a fully healthy 17 games and catch 10 balls this
4:50season. And that's even with all the rushing and touchdowns, that's going to limit him in uh a reddraft league. So, I
4:57would say again, you just go with Ken Walker, you go with the projection. Um, if you wanted to take um Nico, if you
5:04want to take Pickkins, I think that's fine. Uh, as we see up here, um, based on historic full PPR leagues, if you
5:12start off with wide receiver, teams typically produce better if you even it out and go running back. So, we'll just take Ken Walker. Uh, a little bit of
5:19unknown there. I mean, we don't technically know the passing game role, but the potential is there. So, he's not a player where it's like, oh, it's
5:25definitely all going to be on the ground. We know he's going to have a ton of carries. We know he's going to have
5:29plenty of touchdowns and opportunities there. We don't know with the receiving game, he'll have some receptions used in the screen game. We don't know if he's
5:36more of like a 27 reception running back or like a 47 reception running back or a 57. If he gets up to 57, he's going to
5:44be a league winner. If he's down at 27 in full PPR, you're going to be somewhat disappointed with that probably. And
5:49again, that's assuming like a fully healthy season. Um, but the base work should be good enough to where he's not going to pull a full, you know, Derrick
5:57Henry through the year again. 10 10 receptions not going to happen and healthy season for Ken Walker. All right, so we go with him. pull up the um
6:04pull the board here. Oh, and I I kind of glossed over a little bit um round one for this like Puka and Chase range where
6:11I'm saying like I do like just taking them in that top four. Um both of them have this ceiling to where you know you
6:19would have been happy taking them 101 over Jir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson. Like Puka Nua's per route numbers are earthshattering. I think their defense
6:29is going to be great again. So that technically does limit things a little bit, but it's going to be absolutely insane. Like his per route efficiency is
6:35monstrous. He's playing with what a 34 year old wide receiver. What if Adams goes down? What if Adams regresses a little bit? What if they don't just
6:43chuck the ball to Adams every play in the red zone, they actually throw it to Puka? Like the upside is, you know, over
6:49200 targets, 15 touchdowns. Like it's it's exceptional ceiling. And in full PPR, you can be racking up, you know, 10, 11, 12 reception games. Like that's
6:58obviously monstrous when you compare it to even like the round three wide receiver. So I know we like going running back. Uh but that's obviously
7:06crazy upside. Uh so after this uh unfortunately Bree and Love go and so does Derk Henry. We see Nico Dvont Smith
7:13go and then um Trey McBride as well. So if we were to flip to running back, we start to get into the guys where I'm not
7:19taking them in the early third round.
7:20Cam Scatteroo I like but I'm not going round three. I'm not going to take Kairen in a league where I took Puka.
7:24It's too much early round risk. And you get to Javant Williams, another capped upside for the receiving and full PPR.
7:30Travis ETN, now that Kamar is there, that upside's capped. As you can see, I did bump him down in the rankings uh
7:35past ADP. Uh and then we get to like Jacob, Swift, Monty, like guys, we're just not taking in round three. So, I
7:41think you don't go there. Again, when we had the full on there, um projections uh and the um data tells us a little bit
7:48better to take wide receiver than running back. And these wide receivers are much more of that like two three turn wide receivers. And so I would
7:56rather go with them instead of kind of force this other running back. But that's why if we didn't take Ken Walker
8:00there and this team that took like McBride, let's say they took Ken Walker and now we go triple wide receiver to
8:07start. It's just not as strong of builds that you see at the end of the day. You really have to nail your mid-round
8:12running backs and it's not easy to nail a mid-round. So um I would just go with George Pickins at this spot and then
8:19we'll see what happens after that.
8:22So, um, now we'll talk about that upside versus safety. So, again, I kind of said it it's not really something you, excuse
8:29me, you have to worry about in the first three rounds because all these dudes have great roles, all these guys have
8:36extraordinary ceilings. You're not looking at that trade-off. When we start to get into round four, we see a little bit more uncertainty. Obviously, you
8:44know, 36 players are off the board by my pick. Uh, even more than that, we're into the 40s. And so we're starting to
8:49be like, okay, either these players are lacking a little bit in ceiling or they're lacking a little bit in that certainty of the floor. In a format in
8:59baseball, you want to typically go with the floor. Go with the certainty. We have all the data in the world that
9:06tells us that when you are drafting um on something like underdog, you have 18 rounds and you miss and you have dead
9:12roster spots. Those really hurt you. If you're going up against teams that even if they have, you know, quoteunquote like lower ceiling players, if they've
9:19got all 18, you know, 17 of 18 out there playing and you've only got 13 or 14, you're at a huge disadvantage. Even if
9:27you've got great players, you just need all those players to be involved to just have that baseline production. Even if you don't have those huge spike
9:34performances over time, all those median outcomes are going to level out.
9:39Randomly have spikes, but they're going to level out and you're going to have a higher uh end of season total. And you
9:44never know in the playoffs because people's argument to that is basically, oh once you get into the playoff weeks, you know, you don't know like you don't
9:50have that ceiling. Anyone can score two touchdowns. Anyone can have a 30-point game. Go look at the 30point games from like previous years in weeks 15 through
9:5817. You're going to be like, "What? He had a 30-point game?" Because anyone can have it. You're not good at predicting
10:02it on a very low sample. Uh so just you go you want to go to safety. You want everyone to be confident in all those
10:08picks. In reddraft, we're drafting him now. when most of you draft in. You shift a little bit there because you're setting your lineup every week. It's not
10:15that you have 18 players and you know there's only like nine or 10 of them that are going to make it into your
10:21starting lineup and it's just whoever produces the most. It is you got to pick. You got to take a guy from your
10:26bench and put them in your starting lineup and bench someone else if you actually want to start them. So, if you've got a team of a bunch of people
10:33who were very, very safe but maybe lacked that league winning season, you find yourself in sixth place a lot of the time. You find yourself with a
10:42really solid score every week, but never spiking because you don't have that luxury of having a bunch of players and being able to use all of them. You got
10:51to pick a select few and you're much less likely to find that spike in a random week. Um, and you're just much
10:57more likely to have like a really good team, but not a team that's like earthshattering, not a team that's making a difference. And you're going to
11:03miss the league winners. And we have a ton of data as well to tell us. There's only depends on the year, but anywhere
11:10from 10 to 15 players every year that really make a difference. And many times five to seven players that like actually
11:17make a difference in in winning championships. Think about JSN last season. If you just straight up drafted JSN in a reddraft league, you probably
11:25made the playoffs. You probably advanced pretty far. Like, then that's one player. The weight that these league winners have in a reddraft league is
11:34enormous and it outweights it um in in like in baseball. In baseball, yes, they help you advance, but they don't necessarily
11:42always help you get to week 15, to week 16, week 17, like they don't necessarily help you keep advancing in the playoff
11:49weeks. Whereas in a reddraft league, those spiked performances that get you into the playoffs to help you advance there. There's just way more certainty.
11:57You're setting that starting lineup is just so much better off for your team if you hit on those players. And you can
12:03drop. And that's the big thing in a reddraft league. If I miss even on a fourth round player in reddraft, I've
12:08got a bunch of other people I could have drafted. I could make trades. I can pick people up off the waiver wire. I can do
12:15things to where you look at my draft and you look at my playoff roster and you're like, "Half those guys weren't even on
12:20your team before." Yeah, because free agency exists and trades exist. So, I can totally miss rounds three, four, and five. If I'm shooting for upside, I'm
12:28probably hitting on one of them. And even if I don't hit on some of them, I've got other picks that can make up
12:32for it. And the dead roster spot doesn't hurt me because I can get rid of that player. I can trade them away. I can
12:36figure out the roster. So that is to say for on basically lean upside anytime there's ever a decision in a reddraft
12:44league lean towards okay could this player actually be a league winner and a lot of the times that's just the offense
12:49right that's just like who do they play for who's their quarterback who's their coordinator how young are they right is this like a 32-y old player that's never
12:56done anything or is this a 24 year old wide receiver that was a great prospect on a great team like Lad Mcconi who's
13:03kind of the top here IA right and that kind of brings me to lad like the discussion we'll go over in the Friday
13:08video is he's great, right? He probably is more talented than Lad, more talented than Ibuka, but he plays with um Bryce
13:16Young and that's just going to cap your upside. There's only such a season.
13:19There's only so good of a season that Ted McMillan can have this year because he plays with Bryce Young at his
13:24quarterback. He doesn't have Baker. He doesn't have Justin Herbert. And so thinking about all those things, that's why you can at times see um a really
13:33good player, but in a reddraft league, you're like, I don't know, like they maybe they're not as good of a pick as
13:37we think. Okay, so we're in round four.
13:40Uh data tells us it is still positive taking running back and receiver, but it's better to lean towards running back this spot. Unfortunately, uh we're not
13:48in a great range for running back here.
13:50Um Judkins is just not going to have receptions this season. Tutin is he fits that mold of that potential league winner. Uh but 80p 55 I mean we are at
14:0145. We'll have another pick coming up here at what looks like 52. So okay shot we can get him at that next pick. Uh two
14:10of these teams already have two running backs. So decent shot. You know if we can hope to get to in the next round
14:15that would be great. Um wide or let's look at tight end. No Tucker Craft.
14:20We're not going to go there.
14:20Quarterback. Uh Lamar wouldn't be bad here, but because we added that second flex spot, it's just a little bit better to like kind of continue at to these
14:28skilled position players, uh we got to start, we can start four receivers or four running backs, but we've got to start, you know, uh six combined between
14:35them because we're not going to start 10 in the flex spot. Uh so we just need more uh and that next range is so good
14:40that it's just it makes more sense to kind of wait. Uh so it's basically do you take a Judkins or two? And I guess
14:46to be fair, um I do even with the uh difference in the reception totals have Judkins higher than two. And so it is
14:54positive. Um I would say Tootton probably still has the higher celium maybe as a player I kind of lean towards a little more in this build. But
15:01positive we have two players that if we you know one of them goes maybe the other one is still there for us in round
15:06five. Um but a wide receiver I don't think you pass on this. I mean again we can start a bunch of them. It's full PPR
15:13like Lad, Ibuka, Tet, Burden. I would still draft Hero McMillan. I think just comparing him to Ladbuka makes it a little bit more clear why you would lean
15:22towards them in a reddraft league. Um, little bit of a drop off into like McLuren, Wadd, Adams, Evans, uh, especially in full PPR. So, I want to be
15:32locking up one of these wide receivers.
15:33I'll go with Lad. I think it's a very nice discussion. Lad versus Ibuka. We will talk about it again in the rankings
15:40video on Friday. Um, it's it's really tough and I feel like if you're in multiple leagues, you hope you get like
15:46if I'm in three reddraft leagues, I kind of want to just get like, you know, one team with Lad, one team with Ibuka, one
15:51team with Burden. Like it just feels like a range where like there's a lot of upside here. I don't necessarily know
15:56which one and full PPR again. I have it lad, I burden. So, we'll take Lad uh at this one. Um, you can't even play the
16:03ADP game because they all go like right next to each other. All right, let's see what happens. So, no running backs
16:09actually. So we right now have Puka, Pickkins, and Lad. A rock solid wide receiver room. We can start all of them
16:16and we can start another one if we draft one after this. Uh Igbuka goes, T goes, Evans goes, Wadd goes, Lamar and Drake
16:22May also off the board. Um I would say you go with running back. I just like obviously Luther's awesome and um
16:31Terry's awesome and Adams is awesome, but to get your fourth wide receiver here in the data again at the top telling us no. Uh it's not horrible, but
16:39it's slightly negative for uh all positions that are not running back.
16:42Plus 12%. Anytime you see plus over 10%, it's really telling you you want to be taking a running back at this spot. As
16:49you saw in the last round, um Luther and uh Terry, keep say I want to say Terry.
16:55U Luther and Terry dropped down a little bit because it's having that negative 1% adjustment uh for the value there.
17:03So, my rankings still have Judkins, but I [sighs and gasps] maybe maybe I want to change that a little bit. Um,
17:12it's close. And again, it's not only the rankings, which are tailored. Um, they can tilt a little bit towards ADP. It's
17:17also value. If you look at the value column, the actual projections that I have do still lean towards Judkins. But when we think about that ceiling in
17:25reddraft, I think about a player like Judkins on a really bad team. uh on a team that um you know the quarterback
17:32play is just no matter who wins that job it's not going to be good on a team that has a passcatching special back and I
17:37just I don't think there is a world where he's featured. I think he has 300 touch upside but that a lot of that
17:42comes on the ground. Uh whereas Balt Tutin could more risk of course but could you know on a great offense with a
17:51great quarterback who was an explosive player who has goal line um abilities because I mean they like the goal line last season also can receive and also
17:59has that upside. So I I actually do think in full PPR if I'm drafting here I probably would just go with with Tutin
18:04and kind of keep saying give me players on good teams. I've got a player on Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, Dallas, and the Chargers. When all else
18:12fails, who's on a good team? Draft those players. Um I think in half PPR, I would have gone Judkins. I would have said,
18:18"Okay, the touchdown upside of Judkins is significant. Um if he's going to get every touch inside the 10 yard line for
18:24this team, the 300 touches are more valuable, even if they're not coming receiving game because it's only half point per reception. But I want that
18:30receiving ability at least in their range of outcomes if we're in full PPR."
18:34Okay. Uh quarterbacks go. That's unfortunate. I love when I'm in round six and I can get the back half of that
18:40quarterback, but uh Jaden, Herz, Burrow, Caleb, Herbert, and Lawrence all off the board. Uh you're going to see that.
18:47You're going to see exactly this happen in your league. Someone takes Daniels, we start to see the wide receivers that tier go, and then someone takes Herz,
18:55and everyone's like, "Go." Like, I I cannot miss out on this range. All of these teams from pick 7 through 12 all
19:01end up just taking all the quarterbacks.
19:03And again, that is going to happen in your reddraft league. Uh don't assume, oh, these no one's taking it in round
19:10five, they'll be there in round six. Not necessarily. You're gonna see a huge run of quarterback because everyone knows it's such a good range to be at. And I
19:16told the computers that it's a good range to be at. So Dak is top there. Um again, you have the risk with Dak of the
19:22offensive stack. I'm totally fine if it's this if it's like Dak and Pickins.
19:26I wouldn't go beyond that. Like I probably wouldn't go after Ferguson. I wouldn't go late for like Fenoi. Um, I would stick with two. Uh, and I'd want
19:36to do it later. Like I wouldn't want There really isn't any this season that's too early, but I wouldn't want if
19:40one existed of like if you had um I don't know. I don't love like like Josh Allen plus diggs back in the day, but it
19:48did actually win people championships doing that. Um, I don't love doing too early, but if you do like round six uh
19:55and round three, it it's fine. But again, I'm not going to do it here because I don't think Dak is round six
20:00uh pick. I think we just missed the range and so we're going to be going with some later options in this one. Uh
20:05Tony Pard is an awesome pick. Um I do kind of view him a tier above um these options here in my like mind. Uh again,
20:13we'll go over the the rankings um in the Wednesday video for the running backs.
20:17Uh Carninal Tate's a good pick.
20:18Christian Watson's a good pick, but none of these guys stand out. Uh and I think it does make sense for us to just lock
20:24up that second running back. I love being even. Um and then we're not going to go with a tight end at this spot. I
20:29like being even through six, right?
20:31Especially in in a two flex league. I've got three running backs. I've got three receivers. No matter what I want to do
20:37for even the next three rounds, if it was three running backs, three wide receivers, it's probably not going to happen. I'm probably going to end up
20:41taking like a quarterback or a tight end or one of those other positions. I'm not probably going to go three receivers in
20:46a row, but I could do it if I really wanted to go to that. Um, I could do it.
20:51Okay, here another example.
20:54You've got Brian Thomas Jr. Um, honestly, Brian Thomas Jr. and Marv I'd put in a similarish tier. Um, but you got Brian Thomas Jr., Marv, Michael
21:03Wilson or Michael Wilson, my goodness.
21:05Uh, he's a little bit lower. Uh, Corin Sutton and DK Metaf, right? These are just different picks. If we want to talk
21:13about safety versus upside, completely different players. Brian Thomas Jr. and Marv are not safe. They're not safe picks, but they were really high-end
21:22prospects. They are incredibly athletic players. They are players who have the upside to be round one picks next season. And maybe we can't conceptualize
21:30that because it's like back-to-back years for Marv, one year of just really underperforming for Brian Thomas Jr. and we're like, there's no way he goes back
21:38to that that spot. They're very young, very athletic, very good spots on their offense. They have the upside, each of them, to have 1500 yards and 15
21:46touchdowns a season. That is in their range of outcomes. Now, I'll say um different paths to getting there, right?
21:53Brian Thomas would need probably an injury honestly to one of the four receivers there or for uh Travis Hunter to be needed so much on defense they
21:59can't play on offense. Uh but we think about a player like Brian Thomas Jr.
22:03former first round pick an amazing year one gets hurt in year two. They're using that as the excuse to why he wasn't
22:09working over the middle of the field as much last year. He was used much more as like a boundary downfield receiver. Um
22:15the drops were there we think because of the injury. He just seemed hesitant going over the middle of the field. They
22:21say that's coming back this year. And if it does, I mean, we know inbreaking routes are just the number one route in
22:25fantasy, right? You just you want your guys running deep dig routes. Like you want them just moving across the field.
22:30Those are just the highest upside routes. I mean, technically a high upside route is deep downfield, but it's so um such a low high variance, low
22:38outcome pick, right? If we have Brian Thomas running a go route every single time, he's not getting that many targets. And those targets have, you
22:45know, a low probability of actually hitting downfield. when they do hit, it's great, but you lead to a lot of like dud games. When you have a lot of
22:52intermediate routes, your target share goes up. Uh they're very high um conversion rate routes and you still have huge upside if you can connect on
22:59those. So, you want those returning and they say they're going to return and he's still the wide receiver in this team that I would want the most. So, in
23:05a reddraft league, I want to be looking at Brian Thomas Jr. because I'm in round seven and even if it doesn't work out,
23:10I've got Puka, I've got Pickkins, and I've got Lad. But if he works out, he's a a wide receiver one. If we look at
23:17Courtland Sutton, we look at DK Metaf. I mean, what may maybe Wadd gets hurt and we go back to what it was last season
23:24for Sutton where he's like a low wide receiver, too. I mean, like, what is the actual upside? Even if you had an
23:31injury, even if you had him being being good, there's no real upside there. In a baseball format, I'm cool with S. He
23:38drops really far. Uh maybe he can slightly outperform his ADP. Anyone can spike later on, but he's going to give me that baseline production every week.
23:45I don't care about that baseline production every week in a reddraft league. I want to think about that ceiling because I gotta hit on some
23:50ceiling players. I'm not gonna win a championship if I don't have some league winners on my team. So, you would way
23:54rather Brian Thomas Jr. You'd still rather him over Sutton in a in a basketball format, but I'm way more likely to lean into that uncertainty for
24:03Brian Thomas Jr. or someone like Marv in a reddraft league and maybe lean away from it into a different player at this
24:09spot in um baseball and then to target someone like Sutton like you know I think it was like 30 picks later 20
24:14picks later uh on on underdog just the thought process there. So I would go Brian Thomas Jr. at the spot. If you
24:20want to go Marv you could do that. Uh the case basically for Brian Thomas over Marv is saying well he plays in a better
24:26system with also Trevor Lawrence versus some Buret and then probably some Carson Beck on what's probably now going to be a more runheavy offense for Marv and
24:35he's disappointed more. We actually have not seen him have a season like Brian Thomas Jr. had as a rookie. So, a lot of
24:42talking there, but I think that is basically the crux of this video is I got to think about that ceiling every
24:49time I'm drafting someone in a reraft league. Okay, continue looking at quarterback. So, um we just missed on that stack with Dak
24:59Prescott. Would have considered it more in round eight. Um why I still would risk it in a hometown league and and know your league kind of in this
25:08one. In my hometown league, people will typically typically some years it happens, they will not go for that second. So this whole range here, they
25:18won't draft that second quarterback until very very very late. Maybe some of them start taking one in like 14, 15, 16, something like that. Um, but they
25:25won't do it. If you know that's the case in your league, I like Dart a lot. I like Perie a lot, but I also think
25:32Goff's set up well. I think Kyler is set up well. I think Stafford could easily have the season he had last season
25:37again. Uh Baker could have a good year.
25:39You could lean on Shuck or Malik late.
25:40Like there are so many more options that I know they're going to be there late and some of these guys are going to fall
25:47into a point where it's like just take them and almost like your last pick and the value there is crazy. If you're in a
25:53league where everyone takes a backup, I would start at this point looking at Dart and Purity because I think they represent uh significant upside
26:01quarterbacks this season. mobility of dart and then eventually neighbors coming back and then perie having Mike Evans added to the team if they throw a
26:06ton of touchdowns there. So I would start looking at them but I'm not going to do that in this one because in my
26:12league and what typically will happen on average is a lot of these guys are going to sit here and one of them is going to
26:17be a sick value. I'm cool with Kyler and reddraft league. Kyler is my quarterback. Add Malik on or something like that after that and I've got two
26:23high upside quarterbacks. If they don't work out I still have free agency. I still have the trademark it. Not going to do that in baseball though because
26:30those dead roster spots hurt me a little bit more. So again, just kind of the difference there in the upside versus
26:35the safety. Um looking gross in uh in full VPR here. Manunga is not going to have that many interceptions. Rashad White will, but I don't want to take
26:43Rashad White really in round eight. Um Jordan Mason not going to have the receptions we need again. He's more of a
26:50half PPR pick. JCM's not gonna have any receptions. Katon Mitchell very high upside pick, but we can probably wait a little bit on him. Um, but it's it's
26:59ugly. I mean, it gets real ugly real fast at running back. Um, still in a pretty good range of wide receiver.
27:05Quinton has upside. We already have Lad, though, so if I didn't have Lad, I'd lean towards Quinton. I wouldn't want to
27:10take Lad and Quinton Johnston and have two of those wide receivers on the team.
27:13Um, Jaden Reed, uh, pretty solid pick.
27:17Um, not necessarily someone I love because he only really playing 11 personnel, but he should be on the field a lot more this season. He'll probably
27:23run a lot more 11 personnel this year.
27:25Jordan Addison, nice high upside pick.
27:27Uh Chris Godwin, I don't know what the upside is necessarily there, but these are all like totally fine picks to make.
27:33Um I feel like though [sighs] I feel like my lean is say KD and then just take another one because I don't
27:44know if he's going to play in week one, week two, but he's going to play very early in the season. Take KD uh take
27:49another tight end a little bit later on.
27:51uh go back to this range at like running back and receiver and then end it with quarterback late. I feel like that's
27:57what I would do if I lose out on KD. Um I don't necessarily again want Ferguson and Pickins. It's a little bit too much
28:04of the passing game there just because of the variance. They're going to have some games they run a lot, some games
28:08where it just doesn't work out in the passing attack for whatever reason. Um I don't necessarily love Concade or Kelsey. So I'd be waiting for Dallas GD.
28:16I'd be waiting for likely and we can wait there. But Kill just represents more upside. Um the guy updated his player note now. You can kind of read a
28:23deeper dive into that. Uh but he's just been so good. He's been so good in recent years and it seems like he's
28:30going to play in week one or two that it's like why not take that upside shot.
28:34All right, here's what we're going to do.
28:37We've got one, two, three, four, five picks left on the bench. I want to double dip at quarterback. Um who do I take? Okay. Okay. I was gonna
28:48say who I take it. San Fran. Um, again, I'm fine going Pertie and KD, but I wouldn't be fine going Pertie, KD, and
28:54Lake Pierce, so I don't want to add on the third one there.
28:58I know I said I'd wait on quarterback, but I got five picks left here. I like Mason.
29:05I don't necessarily want to draft any of these wide receivers right now. I feel like I can probably wait till the next
29:10round. I don't need to go with that backup tight end now. So, it's basically go Perie or go with Mason.
29:19Maybe I do go with Mason. And I just hope because I know this next turn is the long one where maybe someone does
29:27take Party. Like this Dak team is definitely at risk of taking Perie.
29:30Caleb team would be at risk of taking it. Trevor Lawrence team would at risk of taking it.
29:36But I think yeah, I think I think your best outcome here is try and take Mason.
29:39Cross your fingers there. If he's not, just go with two other quarterbacks late. That would be the best play. Just just lock in. Even though Mason's not
29:45necessarily a full PPR running back, he's a running back that could be a number one on the team, could have touchdown upside if Minnesota plays
29:51better. He could still be someone I'm using. Uh, and I kind of want that fourth running back because we start to
29:56get no range after, honestly, after Mason and then Katon. I don't really trust any of these guys to do anything besides if there's an injury. So, I
30:03would rather and and there will be other wide receivers we feel fine with. So, um, because we don't like have to look
30:09at wide receiver there.
30:11I think we're good with Okay, so Pertie is still there. Again, in my league that would happen. And now starting like 11,
30:1812, 13, like maybe people start doing it, but people go with the wide receivers. Um, looks like Chris Rodriguez goes, Aaron Jones and JCM go.
30:26Um, Ferguson, Kade, and then a bunch of wide receivers after that. So, Perie is still there. Um, Katon is still there,
30:32but I would also anticipate that happening. I don't think people are typically as high on Katon as I am. So, I would now say, "Okay, Pertie
30:38represents significant upside now at this pick. Go with Brock Perie." Um, I would probably then say, "Okay, lock in Katon as that last running back on my
30:49team." And then I would finish off um at least two wide receivers and then take um probably a tight end and say, you
30:57know, maybe I just don't go with that backup quarterback because I don't know week one. you'd be fine drafting right now and not drafting um like a backup to
31:04KD because you would have time to make that ad. Maybe you just add a hand another handcuff running back instead.
31:10See if there's an injury. Um we're going to pretend like this team is drafted like um Labor Day weekend and I'm just
31:16Labor Day weekend. I'm going to draft a backup tight end, especially if I don't, you know, know if KD's playing to start
31:22there. Um who would I take though?
31:27We actually did just miss a range because I don't necessarily like Strange this season. I I guess Gadston, you would take Gadston even though we have
31:36lad. It's for a very short amount of time and you say like maybe the upside hits there. Um yeah, you probably would
31:43take Gadston as that backup, but I don't care enough if there was someone else that I would probably actually lean towards. Um you could Yeah, I would
31:50actually get an upside shot on Worthy.
31:51Um, I don't think we take another running back. And then I, again, in in a single quarterback league where people aren't taking a ton of them, I would
31:59probably wait as long as I can to take that backup quarterback. And I would be fine if like there was just free agents
32:04available after me because Perie is going to be my starting quarterback unless he gets hurt. The one would be Malik. If Malik actually hits his high
32:11end of a ceiling, you know, he has significant upside. So, it would be see if Malik is there. Um, and then if he's not, uh, don't draft
32:20the backup. All right. All right, I got to figure out why I keep I think it's after 30 minutes of recording, but I I
32:24took that setting off the last time, but the the video went away again. So, that was probably gone for a little bit, but
32:29I don't think it was that long. Uh anyways, I got to figure out why the video keeps going away and some of these
32:34mockdraft videos. But, um as I was saying, wouldn't draft uh the backup quarterback at this spot, I would say, give me Worthy um for that similar
32:45reason. He has that upside that I want in a reddraft league. I would say give me Aronda Gadston back up to KD playing
32:53in week one. Um I would grab that whatever flex spot you wanted here. Um actually no wide receivers I care that
33:04much about adding to the team. Uh and we do have five wide outs and five running backs. So we we actually could go and
33:11say draft Kyler. I don't love doing backup, tight end, and quarterback, but it would basically be Gadston as a shot on does he hit the high end of his
33:20outcome? Does he have a good target share in week one? Kyler is well, if this is Kyler Murray of the past and he
33:25really hits in this Kevin Oonnell system, I could trade one of Kyler for a mid-round running back and receiver that's underperforming early on. So,
33:32it'd be more from that perspective. Uh, I would much prefer going running back to receiver, but there actually are, again, aren't any that I really care at
33:40all about. Um, if I felt like handcuffing, not going to do that. No, I don't I don't care about any of these running backs and I don't
33:49think I care about any of these receivers on my team. So, I would just take uh the backup, go after defense.
33:56Um, yeah, Chargers in week one is a great selection and then uh whatever you want to do at kicker doesn't matter
34:07to me. All right, I think that was a really good p uh draft. Again, I'll pull up this here for everyone to see. Wide
34:15receivers, this is full PPR again. Puka, Pickkins, Lad, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy. And then we've got running backs Ken Walker, Bashalt Tuin, Tony Pard,
34:26Jordan Mason, Katon Mitchell. We've got two quarterbacks, uh, Brock Perie and Kyler Murray. And then we've got KD and Ronnie Gadson at tight end, uh, Chargers
34:36D and Panero at my kicker. So, let me know what you think in the comment section down below. Uh, that'll do it
34:42for this one. Again, make sure you're subscribed because we're doing the rankings video on uh Wednesday for running backs on Friday for wide
34:50receivers. So, a huge week for the rankings video and then you know what returns? Camp. Camps are finally here.
34:55Uh, so I think this Saturday will be the return of the training camps video where we talk about all the news that happened
35:01in camp. So, again, please leave a like if you're still here. Please subscribe to the channel if you are new, but I'll
35:06catch you all on the next one.
