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Week 5 Preview: The first 49ers-Seahawks tilt of the season highlights the slate

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 9, 2026
Published
Fri, October 9, 2026
37
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
Mike EvansBrock PurdyGeorge KittleJalen HurtsJaxon Smith-NjigbaKyle JuszczykMatthew StaffordA.J. BrownAaron RodgersAlec PierceBijan RobinsonBrock BowersChristian McCaffreyD.J. Moore
Player analysis

Player insights

37

A.J. Brown

NegativeDepth Chart50:40

AJ Brown is no longer with the Eagles, marking a major departure from the core that defined the team over the past four to five years; his absence, combined with Jason Kelsey's departure and Lane Johnson's retirement, signals a complete transition away from the era that won the Super Bowl.

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Aaron Rodgers

NegativeRole76:55

Aaron Rodgers' performance for the Steelers has been inconsistent and uninspired. The source describes his play as a 'week to week thing based on what does he want' and notes that he is only willing to be aggressive and throw downfield once every three to four games. The rest of the time, the Steelers offense feels like they are 'spinning the wheel and hoping you come up on a good thing.'

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Alec Pierce

PositiveInjury73:20

Alec Pierce is not healthy and unavailable for the Colts. He was the primary target the Colts wanted to use for downfield throws, and his absence forces them to rely on secondary receivers like Laquan Treadwell, which limits the effectiveness of their passing game.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection4:40

Robinson has been phenomenal for the Falcons; Atlanta leads the league with a 51.1% rushing success rate per Next Gen Stats over the last couple of weeks. The source expects Robinson to rush for three digits against the Ravens but is uncertain whether it will reach the 180+ yards and multiple touchdowns he has posted in recent weeks, given the Ravens' improved run defense and heavier box usage.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveMatchup69:13

Brock Bowers is the Raiders' one truly difficult man-coverage receiver. The source notes that the Raiders scheme him effectively through stacks, switch verts, and switch stem concepts to create separation. Bowers proved last week he can separate at the catch point even against longer corners like LeJarrius Sneed. Against the Patriots' smaller cornerbacks (Marcus Jones, Kendall Vildor) and with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis potentially unavailable, Bowers should have favorable matchups to exploit man coverage.

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Brock Purdy

NegativeMatchup4:14

Purdy will throw middle-of-the-field 11-20 yard passes against the Seahawks, but the source questions whether he consistently has the arm talent to fit those throws against Ernest Jones and the Seahawks' corners and safeties, contrasting his ability to Matthew Stafford's.

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NegativeMatchup10:30

Brock Purdy's tendency to extend plays has affected Mike Evans' deep route tree; one of Evans' 20+ air yard targets was a crosser that drifted off-field because Purdy was extending rather than hitting the designed deep shot.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeRole9:15

Christian McCaffrey is listed as a resting player on the 49ers injury report, not injury-related; part of the team's veteran rest management strategy.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeMatchup37:16

DJ Moore's shoulder injury and matchup against Trent McDuffie heavily favor the Rams defense; even at full health, Moore is not a separation-creating man coverage beater, and this version of McDuffie playing at a high level makes it very difficult for Bills receivers to separate consistently in the game.

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Dallas Goedert

NegativeInjury53:42

Dallas Goddert has not been available for the Eagles offense; his absence removes a key pass-catching option and contributes to the overall lack of healthy weapons available to support the struggling offense.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveRole38:33

If DJ Moore is unavailable, the Bills should look to increase opportunities for Dalton Kincaid as a pass catcher in 13 personnel looks, moving away from the heavy personnel packages that relied on Moore; Kincaid could see more routes and targets as the primary receiver in those formations.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveRole73:30

Daniel Jones cannot push the ball down the field effectively for the Colts. The source notes that even if he could, the Colts' preferred deep-ball target, Alec Pierce, is not healthy. As a result, the Colts are forced to throw deep balls to secondary receivers like Laquan Treadwell, which is not as effective. The source concludes that the Colts have struggled to be the offense they want to be at all.

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Davante Adams

PositiveMatchup26:28

Devante Adams has a favorable matchup against the Bills' secondary in Week 5; the source notes that if Adams lines up on the backside against the Bills' simplified zone coverage scheme, the Rams 'probably have a pretty good matchup' because the Bills' backside corner is locked in man coverage with limited help.

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Deebo Samuel

NegativeUsage5:00

Samuel was used in an under-center offset alignment on a run play, illustrating Kyle Shanahan's creative and varied run-game concepts; the source notes the 49ers' bread and butter remains zone stuff, but Shanahan employs counter power and gap concepts with unusual alignments and back positioning.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeInjury53:42

Devonta Smith has been banged up and unavailable for stretches; he is one of the few healthy pass-catching reinforcements the Eagles can count on, but his injury history and limited availability make it difficult to build offensive consistency. Unlike the 2024 season when the Eagles got healthy before the bye week with multiple star receivers returning, Smith alone is not enough to salvage the offense.

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George Kittle

PositiveUsage4:38

Kittle's banana motion and blocking ability are central to the 49ers' run scheme; he demonstrated actual movement and edge displacement on a key run against Denver, exemplifying his value in their motion-heavy offensive design.

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NegativeUsage5:45

With Juszczyk unavailable, Kittle will take on expanded inline blocking duties and movement responsibilities, particularly in 21 personnel; the source expects Kittle to get more cardio in this week as he assumes the role Juszczyk typically fills, moving around consistently rather than serving primarily as a receiver.

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Jadarian Price

NegativeInjury22:27

Jadarian Price is not available for the Seahawks in Week 5, which contributes to the team's struggles in the run game; the source notes the Seahawks are third worst in the league in runs of negative or zero yards at 24% of the time, partly attributable to Price's absence.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeMatchup21:41

The source notes that quarterbacks feel more unsettled due to pressure situations, suggesting Hurts may face similar challenges in Week 5 matchups.

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NegativeProjection55:13

The Eagles offense is described as unwatchable and bottom-eight at best; with the offensive line in disarray and key pass catchers unavailable or injured, the quarterback situation is severely compromised. The source projects the Eagles offense to finish bottom-eight, which would result in a team that wins approximately seven games and picks ninth in the draft.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NegativeRole9:05

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the only main piece for the Seahawks that did not practice on Wednesday, but this was for rest purposes rather than injury.

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PositiveBreakout22:44

The source identifies JSN as a 'hell of a trump card' for the Seahawks against the 49ers, suggesting he could have an outsized impact in this matchup despite the defensive strength on both sides; the source explicitly states they cannot rule out JSN going off in this game.

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Josh Allen

NegativeMatchup24:01

Allen faces off against Matthew Stafford in a rare cross-conference matchup of the two previous MVPs; the source notes this is a notable occurrence, with the teams employing the previous two MVPs having played each other in seven of the last eight years.

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Kirk Cousins

NegativeMatchup69:54

The source notes that Kirk Cousins is vulnerable to man coverage pressure; when the Patriots crush the pocket on him and hit him, he tends to leave dicey throws. The source also notes that Cousins will dice up zone coverage, so the Patriots' defensive approach—whether they can get away with man coverage given their cornerback injuries—will be critical to their defensive success.

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Kyle Juszczyk

NegativeInjury5:08

Juszczyk will not play in this game and is out for multiple weeks. He hasn't missed a game since 2022 and is a critical part of the 49ers' motion and blocking scheme; his absence forces the team to retool their offensive approach.

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NegativeInjury5:27

Juszczyk is unavailable (implied injury/absence); the source notes that without him, the 49ers will be trickier in executing counter power and gap-based run concepts, and George Kittle will likely assume more of Juszczyk's inline blocking role and movement responsibilities, particularly in 21 personnel situations.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveMatchup26:28

Kyron Williams has a favorable matchup against the Bills' secondary in Week 5; the source indicates that if Williams lines up out of the backfield against the Bills' simplified zone coverage with backside flat defenders instructed to 'hug' receivers, the Rams have 'a pretty good matchup.'

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeProjection65:42

Over the first four weeks of the season, Lamar Jackson was playing at an elite level—the source describes him as 'the best player in football' during that stretch. He has been dicing up defenses from the pocket rather than relying on designed runs, and the source expresses concern that an ankle injury could derail what was shaping up to be a sensational season. The hope is he misses only a game or two and returns to that level; if the injury affects his performance or flow, it would be a tragedy given how dominant he was playing.

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Laquon Treadwell

NegativeRole73:24

Laquan Treadwell is being used as a downfield target for the Colts in the absence of Alec Pierce. However, the source notes that throwing downfield to Treadwell is not as effective as it would be to Pierce, suggesting Treadwell is a secondary option rather than the ideal target for the Colts' deep-ball scheme.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeMatchup24:01

Stafford faces off against Josh Allen in a rare cross-conference matchup of the two previous MVPs; the source notes this is a notable occurrence, with the teams employing the previous two MVPs having played each other in seven of the last eight years.

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NegativeProjection29:40

Stafford's performance is being constrained by the Rams' weak offensive line in pure pass protection situations; the source notes that when Stafford is crowded, he throws interceptions. The Rams have already faced 13 drop backs of second-and-11 or longer through four games (tied for third most in NFL), compared to just 22 total last season (lowest in NFL by five). On third down, they've had 15 drop backs of 11+ yards to go in 2025 versus 15 total last season, indicating a significant increase in negative game scripts and pressure situations.

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Mike Evans

PositiveRole3:00

Evans provides a middle-of-the-field presence for the 49ers offense; while not 100 percent healthy, he still represents a valuable receiving option in the scheme.

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NegativeInjury3:02

Evans does not feel 100 percent healthy but still functions as a nice middle of the field presence for the Buccaneers offense.

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NegativeUsage10:15

Mike Evans has been productive for the 49ers this year but has not filled the expected role as a deep vertical threat outside the numbers. He has only three catches of 20+ air yards on five targets; one was a goal-line touchdown against Miami, one was a crosser that drifted off-field due to Purdy extending, and one was a deep dig over the middle. The source questions whether Week 5 against Seattle will be the game where Evans finally challenges defenders outside the numbers, a key formula for beating the Seahawks defense.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveMatchup26:45

Puka Nacua has a favorable matchup against the Bills' secondary in Week 5; the source suggests that if Nacua lines up on the backside against the Bills' simplified zone coverage with man-locked corners, the matchup 'becomes even uglier' for the Bills compared to what Matt Collin already exposed.

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Sam Darnold

NegativeMatchup20:54

Darnold is not seeing the field as well as he did last year; while he's dealing with some missed games and health concerns, he's also still learning a new system. Against San Francisco's elite pressure defense and Fred Warner's coverage, the source expects 'tough sledding' for Darnold, describing him as 'unsettled' compared to last year, particularly in defined passing situations where the Niners' pressure scheme will make him uncomfortable.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveRole65:56

Zay Flowers has been really good and impressive in the Ravens' scheme, though he has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries. The source notes that Flowers has been a key part of Lamar Jackson's success, and the pass-catching group outside of Flowers is not electric, making his availability important to the Ravens' offensive performance.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,062
0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the US Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card.
0:05I'm Robert Mays. Today it's the Week 5 Preview.
0:07Two games of the week, we hit Rams, Bills and Niner Seahawks.
0:10Some bangers of headliner games in Week 5. Dug into one thing from a couple other games, chat a little bit about
0:17the Eagles season and where that is headed. A little bit of Lane Johnson celebration, whole bunch of stuff on the Week 5 Preview today.
0:23Let's get to it with me, Derrik and Dave.
0:26Right now. It's the Week 5 Preview. A lot of good stuff to dig into today.
0:30We've got two games of the week, got a couple other newsy bits, chat a little bit about the Eagles, a little
0:36bit about what's happening with the Broncos play calling situation.
0:39A lot of stuff to chew on today. It's been a wild week for unexpected news.
0:44I mean, in mid-season news, there's been a lot of bangers over the last 48 hours or so.
0:48Does Sean Payton taking back play calling count as surprising news?
0:52Let's call it notable. Okay, there we go. Let's call it notable news.
0:55Stuff that the type of news you don't always get heading into Week 5.
0:59That's how I'll frame it. Is that better? Yeah, I think that that's a little bit more fitting.
1:04Two huge news items. The other one, and we'll talk about it, Lane Johnson retiring.
1:08One is kind of, even knowing Lane said this was going to be his last year, you weren't ready for it to happen.
1:14Oh, no, of course not. So, shocking, and then you hear the Payton news, and you're like, well, yeah, okay.
1:20Like, we knew, we had an idea that that might be coming.
1:23Let's dig into our first game of the week here.
1:2649ers at Seahawks. Really looking forward to this one.
1:28It doesn't take a lot of explanation as to why this is the game of the week.
1:33I think right now you can make a pretty solid argument that the Niners have been the best team in the NFL over the first four weeks.
1:41When you look at a multi-year period and you take everything into account, still think you would probably be in the right
1:47to say that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL.
1:50Just with everything that we know and banking last year combined with this year.
1:54And so it doesn't take a lot to sell me on this one.
1:57And with the way it went last year, too, I'm so excited for the renewal of this.
2:02Where, you know, I mean, the 49ers won that great game in the season opener.
2:06And they've been up until last year had been the more consistently successful team.
2:10And by the end of the year, you were like, oh, man, Mike McDonald's got Kyle Shanahan's number, doesn't he?
2:16And so to see what this looks like with the Niners rolling and, you know, some of their new pieces contributing, I was going to say healthy.
2:23Not that's not really still a thing, but maybe healthier looking than we hoped.
2:27Either way, I'm I'm excited for the renewal of this one.
2:30I think that's a good place to start. The idea that for the most part, I mean, Mike Mike McDonald has had
2:36Kyle Shanahan's number in a way that very few defensive coaches do.
2:39And so, Derek, I think the entry point I'm interested in here is, is there a reason to think that this is
2:45going to look different for the Niners offense than it did over the final two matchups from last year where they really got dominated by Seattle?
2:52Seattle controlled those games on that side of the ball.
2:55I think it can be a little bit better.
2:58You know, I think the offensive line is playing better right now than it had last year.
3:02You have Mike Evans, who does not feel 100 percent healthy, but still feels like a nice middle of the field presence,
3:08which we can talk about in a little bit.
3:11I still think the way that the Seahawks play defense is perfectly suited to not let the 49ers do what they want
3:17to do, because the 49ers rushing offense is all about how can we create space in the sea gap, whether that's with motions or they're shifting to it.
3:25They're flipping formations, whatever they're going to do. How do we get that to pop?
3:29It's really hard to do that against the Seahawks edge rusher or edge guys, whether it's to Marcus Lawrence, Chena Nwosu, some
3:35of the run tools they use where they're blitzing, you know, with their spoon off the edge or M and warrior, whatever it's going to be.
3:42And so I think they are just a perfect matchup to shut that down right now, especially, you know, juice check is
3:48not going to play in this game like he's out for a while now.
3:52I think that they're going to have to retool their offense a little bit.
3:56And so in this week particular, I think that stuff.
3:59And then the other element of it, this is a Seahawks defense.
4:02We talked about it, especially all the time when they play the Rams, those middle of the field, 11 to 20 yard throws over the middle.
4:09You have to be able to challenge those windows and you have to have the arm to fit them.
4:14Purdy will throw them whether or not he consistently has the arm talent to fit them in there against Ernest Jones, the
4:20way that some of these corners and safeties are playing.
4:23That I think is where we get a little bit trickier as compared to obviously a guy like what Matthew Stafford can do at his best.
4:30Going back and rewatching the Niners Broncos game, one of the first runs they had, it might have been the actual first run they had in the game.
4:38They have Kittle going on that little banana motion.
4:40He's leading up on Q Robinson and he gets actual movement on Q Robinson on the edge where he displaces him on that play.
4:47Comparing the edges for the Broncos and the way that those guys are built compared to the way the edges for the Seahawks are built.
4:54It's just a very clear example as to why the way the Niners run the ball is just a little bit harder
5:00to do against a team that is built literally and figuratively like the Seahawks defense is built.
5:05I do think that's what makes this so exciting.
5:07And it feels like a real rubber meets the road matchup for what the 49ers have been.
5:12It's worth saying right here that Kyle Juszczyk's not going to play in this game.
5:16He's out. He's out for like multiple weeks. So he hasn't missed a game for them since 2022.
5:21And he's obviously between the motion and his blocking ability.
5:24He's such a big part of what they do.
5:26It sucks that it won't be the perfect idea of how they want to do this.
5:31But rewatching the Niners, especially against Denver, because, yeah, they're smaller on the edge.
5:34But like Zach Allen is in the middle of that thing.
5:37Like this is still it's a tougher front than Miami and Arizona.
5:41And they did not move them around in the way that they've done to other teams so far this year.
5:46They didn't. But I have like I'm I'm really encouraged by what I've seen from the rest of the 49ers offensive line.
5:52Obviously, we know Trent Williams. But Connor Colby and Dominic Pune have been like they're out to a fantastic start to this season.
5:59And even if it didn't look great against Denver as past protectors and in the running game, I thought it was not consistent.
6:05But they were getting movement and showing flashes and looking more like pieces to be excited about rather than just Trent Williams and the four guys.
6:12I think you've just felt a different level of physicality from the interior for the Niners this year than we would become accustomed to.
6:19I mean, when we think about the Niners, it's been a lot of undersized guys over the years, zone blocking team.
6:25And I think that, you know, Pune is a bigger bodied guy.
6:28And even Colby is like 310, 315. And you go back and from the start of the season against the Rams, like
6:34their ability to move people just has felt a little bit different this year, Derek, than I think we typically ascribe to
6:40the Niners running game and specifically the Niners running game from last year.
6:44And I do think because of that, you're seeing like when they get to some of their counter stuff or some of
6:50their, you know, gap stuff, whatever it's going to be.
6:52It's been really good. How you define it is probably up to you.
6:56It's like it's weird enough that it kind of falls between a couple of different concepts.
7:00It's all really weird in terms of who's pulling where, who is fitting into where, even where they're aligning the backs.
7:06Like on the Debo Samuel play, he's in like under center offset, like it's 1932.
7:10And I'm like, all right, man, if that's what you want to do, like obviously Shanahan is really interesting with that stuff.
7:16So their run game is varied, but their bread and butter is still the zone stuff.
7:21And so I, and now I wonder like I, if Juszczyk was playing, I would have been like, man, this is the
7:27game to run counter power, all that stuff like 12 times.
7:30But without him, I do think that that's probably going to be a little bit trickier.
7:34We talked about it on the, on the hangover.
7:37Some of the only stuff that was working for the chargers last week is when they were willing to get in 21
7:43personnel and just run the ball downhill at Seattle.
7:45And so now not having a fullback and being able to do that, I looked up some of the numbers just because I was curious.
7:52The Niners have been in 21 personnel on 41% of their plays so far this season.
7:57So that they have lived in 21 for most of the year.
8:00They have a 51% rushing success rate out of 21 personnel.
8:03They're averaging 0.12 EPA per carry. They only have 17 carries all year out of 12.
8:07And that is my assumption. That's probably what we'll see a shift to where now as the move piece, Kittle's just going
8:13to do a little bit more of that stuff than he might in a given week as more of like an inline blocker.
8:20He already does some of it. But now I think a lot of that Jusek role where he's just consistently moving around.
8:26What did Jusek say after week one? It's like, I got my cardio in after this one.
8:30I think George Kittle, that could be one of the weeks where he's really getting his cardio in.
8:35And I'm looking forward to it. And I mean, how they decide to do that and how they decide to pivot without
8:41Jusek, I think you're probably right about that. What that looks like is interesting.
8:45But again, I just, these young guards have looked really impressive to me.
8:49And now it's Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy. And I assume Leonard Williams is going to play.
8:54I think Mike McDonald said he was optimistic. He had an ankle injury coming out of the Chargers game, but it sounds like they expect him to play.
9:01He was limited on Wednesday. It sounds like he's probably going to play.
9:05The only guy, the only like main piece for the Seahawks that did not practice on Wednesday was JSN just because he was getting rest.
9:12Looking at the Niners injury report every single week is hilarious.
9:15Obviously, there are a bunch of guys that are actually hurt.
9:18But then you have several veterans that just don't practice once a week.
9:21Trent Williams, not injury related, resting player. Christian McCaffrey, not injury related, resting player.
9:25Dre Greenlaw, not injury related, resting player. They're correct approach.
9:28But this team, it's always an adventure. Every single time you look up who's playing and who's not.
9:33You got to be careful with the substation, man.
9:35Don't take any risks you don't need to. Speaking of injuries in the substation, one of the things we thought might feel
9:41different about the Niners offense this year and really kind of contrasting what it felt like in those Seahawks games in the playoffs was, okay.
9:48Now we have a big body vertical X receiver where we can potentially attack teams down the field outside the numbers in
9:54a way we just couldn't at the end of the year.
9:57And when you look at the way that Seattle was playing the Niners in those two games, zero respect for their ability to attack that one specific area.
10:05We thought that bringing Mike Evans in might give them just a little bit more when it came to that specific thing.
10:11Can you tag down the field outside the numbers a little bit more often?
10:15Mike Evans has been really productive for the Niners this year, Derek, but he hasn't really done that.
10:20Like the only, I think he has three catches of at least 20 plus air yards this year.
10:25Five targets. One of them was a goal ball against the Dolphins that he caught for a touchdown.
10:30The other two were, one was a crosser that drifted a little bit off field because Purdy was extending a little bit.
10:36And one was like a deep wrap router dig over the middle of the field.
10:40And so that hasn't really been his role, even if Mike Evans has been a really important piece for why the Niners offense has felt how it feels.
10:48And so I'm wondering, is this the week where do we get one of those plays where Mike Evans is challenging a Josh Jobe outside the numbers?
10:55Because if you're trying to create the formula for how you can beat the Seahawks defense in any given game, anecdotally, it
11:01feels like every single one of those games involves at least one.
11:05One on one outside the numbers deep shot to one of these receivers this year, they lost one game.
11:10It was to Washington. Terry McCormick had one deep ball outside the numbers touchdown on a goal ball.
11:15And so if you're going to beat them, it feels like you need one or two of these.
11:20The Rams had plenty of them last year. Is this the game where we see that version and that style of impact
11:26from Mike Evans in a way that they really haven't had to tap into so far this year?
11:31I mean, you have to because even as well as the 49ers are playing right now, you're never going to be efficient
11:37enough on a down to down basis to score 25, 30 points on a defense like this.
11:42And so you do have to generate those. It's you know, we kind of joked about it, but Mike Evans has really
11:48just been super Juwan Jennings for the most part.
11:50And that's been really good for them. But when we came into the season, I thought like, OK, maybe they are going
11:56to try to be a little bit more vertical, but it's not really what they're doing.
12:01And against Seattle, it really is a lot of the way that they play their coverage, whether it's in some of their coverage six stuff or the quarters.
12:08If you're playing like three by one, they will have that backside safety go and poach the front side because they want
12:14to take away the crossers, especially against a team like this who likes to run a lot of that stuff.
12:20Well, if you can get Mike Evans isolated one on one on the backside, you can get some of those posts, go
12:26balls, really deep stop routes like stuff like that.
12:28They're probably going to have to tap into that more than I think they would like to against other teams.
12:34Like I do think that that's a world that they don't love to live in because they're so two by two.
12:40But I think you probably have to do it a little bit this week.
12:44And he did talk about those deep stop routes.
12:46They have used him on a couple of those.
12:48And that's that's something where we might see a little bit of that, where he's just going to push vertical.
12:54He's turning around at 17 to 15 yards. Can you hit a couple of those in this game where you didn't really have somebody again?
13:01He's super Jawan Jennings. You don't feel good about Jawan Jennings running those deep stop routes against the Seahawks in a way you might with Mike Evans.
13:08I heard you guys talking about this on the hangover, too, for what the expectation was.
13:13I think Nehemiah Pritchett has been awesome for the Seahawks.
13:15I still think you should try to win there, you know, same.
13:19And honestly, I really like Josh Jobe as a player, too.
13:22He he can be gotten. And like that is a place where I think you at least need to try.
13:27I don't even want to say the word exploit as if the Seahawks have this terrible weakness.
13:32But like is a good word. You have to at least try it.
13:36You have to at least show that you're capable of doing this in a way that you weren't in the back half of last season.
13:42Get to the other side of the ball. The Niners defense is just a unit we haven't really talked much about.
13:48We spent more time focusing on their offense last week against the Broncos.
13:52Derek, just going back and watching what the Niners defense has been so far this year.
13:56They've been a top five unit based on any number that you're looking at.
14:00EPA per play, DVOA, all of that stuff. What have your early impressions been?
14:04And how would you characterize what this defense has looked like with Raheem Morris as the coordinator?
14:09I think in the back end, it's not all that different.
14:12There are still a lot of cover three. It's a lot of single high, all that sort of stuff.
14:17But the front is just so much more varied in so many different ways.
14:21Like even just from the way that they are aligning, like they really like their third linebacker, Jaden Duggar.
14:26And we can talk about how much they've been playing base.
14:29But they've been putting him on the field as that like on the ball sort of guy who is like a pseudo edge player.
14:36The way that we've talked about Quay Walker being used for the Raiders.
14:39They do a lot of that sort of stuff with him.
14:42And then the other thing is a lot of their blitz packages and what they're doing on pressure downs to me has been really impressive.
14:49Even from week one, we've started to see Fred Warner be used a lot more as a piece like on the ball and as a blitzer.
14:56And there are definitely numbers to back it up.
14:59Like in 2024 and 2025, he was rushing about two to three times a game.
15:03And that was about how much they used him.
15:05So far through four games this season, he has pass rushed 21 times, which is just over five times a game.
15:11And it's not even just when they send him.
15:14Like they put him mugged up a lot to like draw pressure.
15:17And teams are going to slide their protection that way because they don't want to deal with him.
15:22And it's the way that I think that they've schemed that up when it's still a pass rush unit that is fine,
15:28but obviously does not have Nick Bosa right now.
15:30And you've got to generate some of that stuff.
15:33They've done a really kick-ass job of doing that, I think.
15:36They're varied schematically. They're literally varied per next gen.
15:38They've used 15 D linemen through four games, which is the most of the next gen era.
15:43Between injuries and just rotating guys. There's 15, and again, it sounds like Michael Williams is back for this game.
15:49I hope that's the case because he's an exciting young player.
15:52If he is, go ahead and call it 16 guys through first five weeks of the season.
15:56The pressure stuff and just how they're using some of those front players is really what has stuck out.
16:02Because now, I was wondering what the defense would look like with Raheem Morris.
16:05Because obviously, his background is, there's really no specific and quick way to explain it.
16:10He's coached in virtually every single type of defensive system.
16:12Odd front, even front, blitz happy teams, more coverage-based teams.
16:15He's done a little bit of everything. And so, I was curious what tweaks we would see to a Niners team that
16:21had really been a lot of four down, similar stuff for a very long time.
16:25Considering who the coordinators have been. And I think the main tweak that we've seen, and this is partially driven by the
16:31personnel, Duggar and Romello Height are both hybrid-type players.
16:34And so, we have seen them really lean into those guys as a way to make this thing feel a little bit more dynamic.
16:40Where Height will be lined up as a spinner, and they'll run a simulated pressure with Fred Warner, where Height is the one that's dropping into the hook.
16:48Or Duggar will be lined up on the line of scrimmage.
16:51And so, your pressure plan is just a little bit more dynamic because you have all these sort of flexible pieces.
16:57And that, to me, is what has felt different.
16:59When this team faces a second and nine or any sort of third down situation, it's anybody's guess who's going to be
17:05mugged up on the line of scrimmage. Where they're going to be.
17:09Who's coming. Who's not. And I think they've really used that to advantage and used it in tandem with a back seven
17:15and a secondary specifically that's playing well. I mean, you look at that group, like Lenore's playing really well.
17:20Renardo Green is a solid player. And then the safeties, Marquis Siegel had managed to stave off Malik Mustafa, even though he was healthy.
17:27He was banged up in training camp, but he was healthy by the time they started the season.
17:32And Siegel had been playing well enough where they were like, we're just going to roll with this guy.
17:37He's now hurt. But now you're going back to the guy who would have been the starter coming into the year.
17:43And so, it's a good group on the back end.
17:45It's a pretty deep group on the back end.
17:48And they've paired that with a pass rush plan that I think should scare teams right now.
17:53They have a lot of guys with juice. They're undersized as a group.
17:56But if you're getting teams in a second and nine, that matters less.
18:00And they're doing a good job of that. I'm just so happy to see the secondary have a chance.
18:05Because last year, they just didn't. Like, I thought the secondary, it's a lot of the same guys.
18:10It's pretty much all the same guys as they had in the secondary last year.
18:14But the front was so bad, whether that was getting them into not enough, like, pure passing downs.
18:19Or when they were in pure passing downs, the pass rush just wasn't getting home.
18:23The fact that they can get home a little bit more.
18:26They're speeding quarterbacks up in terms of their internal clock.
18:29You can see Renardo Green driving on routes. Lenore really squeezing guys to the sideline.
18:33The safeties are playing fast. And overall, the linebacker play is so much better than last year.
18:38One, because Warner is just healthy. And he's the best player at the position by a mile.
18:42But Trey Greenlaw, baby. He is back. He is exceptional again.
18:45And I don't know if it was just weird with the coaching staff in Denver.
18:50He was obviously dealing with some injuries and stuff.
18:52But put him back next to Fred Warner. And that dude looks like a second team all pro again.
18:57I think we can take it one step further than that in terms of how he looked last week.
19:03He looked... What is the word I'm looking for?
19:05Oh, John Wick? Yeah. He looked like a man on a revenge tour last week.
19:09One of my favorite moments of last week is Fred Warner yanking Drake Greenlaw away from Sean Payton after that game ended.
19:15That's incredible. You saw the clip of him. And I don't know what he said.
19:19That part was, like, made up. But he made a great tackle for, like, a small gain.
19:24And Sean Payton was, like, 10 feet away. And he went right to Sean Payton and was, like, pointing at him.
19:30The Gary Bertier. Yeah, exactly. Yes, from Remember the Titans.
19:33It was, like, the fifth play of the game.
19:35Like, it happened, like, immediately. And I was like, Jesus.
19:38But, hey, sometimes you just need to leave home to find out what you were missing the whole time.
19:43You know, he went away for a year. And now he's back to looking like Drake Greenlaw.
19:48What do we think about? All right. We kind of established what the Niners defense has been so far this year.
19:53What does that mean against this Seahawks offense specifically in your mind?
19:57Yeah. I would say in most matchups, a lot of other teams, you can run the ball a little bit on this San Francisco 49ers defense.
20:04They are, like you mentioned, they're still pretty small.
20:06They're without Nick Bosa. You can move these D tackles around a little bit.
20:10But the Seahawks are mostly still an outside zone, lead zone sort of running team.
20:14And I actually think if you're going to try to attack guys like Keon White on the edge, like, he's actually a good edge setter.
20:21And then I think if you're playing more zone stuff and you're, like, trying to get the backers to kind of connect
20:27four, fit into wherever their slot is going to be, they're really, really good at that.
20:32And whereas I think you can really get this run defenses if you run duo, some of the counter gap stuff.
20:38That's just not as much of what Seattle does.
20:40So I actually think that San Francisco 49ers run defense could be solid against a Seattle team that doesn't have either of its two best backs.
20:47And then the second part of that, I think we're seeing that Sam Darnold is just not seeing it as well as he did last year.
20:54And that's obviously he misses, you know, a couple of games like he's not fully healthy.
20:59He's still trying to learn a system that's a little bit new to him.
21:03But I think while that might be fine five weeks from now when he's got a little bit more time, that's probably really tough.
21:09I think against the San Francisco 49ers defense that the pressure stuff is really good.
21:13And Fred Warner is going to take away all the throws that he wants to throw.
21:18And so I do think that this is going to be tough sledding for Seattle.
21:22With a quarterback that just feels a little bit more unsettled than he did last year, like you go back and you watch that Chargers game.
21:29That's the word that I would probably use. This is a Niners defense where if you can get them into defined passing
21:35situations on second and long, third down, their defense is playing a way that's going to make quarterbacks feel more unsettled because
21:41of that pressure stuff that we were talking about.
21:44And so I think if the Niners can stop the run early downs and we get a lot of pure passing situations
21:50for Seattle, I don't know if that's the way they want the game to go.
21:54I'll be impressed if Seattle runs the ball well in this game, just between what the Niners have done, what the Seahawks have looked like.
22:01Seahawks also, you make a great point about like early downs.
22:04The Seahawks are also horrendous in short yardage, which could loom large in a game like this with Warner and Greenlaw playing the way they're playing.
22:11And what we've seen, you know, the Seahawks are third worst in the league in runs of negative or zero yards.
22:17Twenty twenty four percent of the time, like they're in Raiders Packers territory of just not being able to generate things.
22:23Some of that is obviously Jadarian Price not being available, but I don't know, man.
22:27I just I do not trust them to consistently be successful running the ball in this game.
22:31I feel like it might be a little ugly.
22:34If this was a 1917 sort of finish, that wouldn't surprise me based on everything that we've just said.
22:39I do think the defenses in this game potentially have the upper hand on both sides of the ball.
22:44I do think JSN is a hell of a trump card.
22:47Like, I'm not going to be surprised if they if it just works out that, you know, if JSN goes off in
22:53this game, I can't rule that out entirely. Let's get to our next one here.
22:57Bills at Rams. This is Monday Night Football, correct?
23:00It sure is. Look at me. The only reason I know that is because Bauer told us 15 minutes before we started recording.
23:06I don't like I don't really expect you to know that noon verse 3 p.m.
23:10kicks, but the fact that you didn't know that this is Monday Night Football is admirable.
23:15It's a degree of like just being locked in that I can't even fathom.
23:19I watch them all. It doesn't matter when they're on.
23:21I'm going to watch them all. Bauer tells me which recaps we do in the studio.
23:26That's that's that's the only thing that really matters.
23:28As long as you show up for those, we're good.
23:31I'm showing up now. We'll see what happens over the rest of the year.
23:35Again, similar to Seahawks Seahawks Niners. Don't think we really have to sell you on this one.
23:40Rams bills was a pretty popular Super Bowl pig before the season started.
23:43They were the favorites in their respective conferences to go to the Super Bowl.
23:47They the best Super Bowl odds. We have the two previous MVPs playing against each other, which has doesn't happen that often.
23:53The crazy thing is it kind of does. Oh, OK.
23:56Oh, it does happen. OK, it does happen. Like, no, when I saw this, I was like, oh, it's Allen versus Stafford.
24:02That can't happen very often. The the teams that employ the previous two MVPs have played each other in seven of the last eight years.
24:09We haven't always gotten that matchup because like in 2023, Rogers was out when they played the Chiefs.
24:14And I think Lamar missed a game against Patrick Mahomes earlier.
24:17But like we've had a really crazy run of these matchups where the previous two MVPs are playing each other.
24:22And I think it's probably because a lot of the MVPs in recent years have played division winners in the AFC division winners.
24:29Yeah, exactly. But this is not that. Yeah, we've got, you know, a cross conference game with the two reigning MVPs.
24:34Let's go. Similar to the situation with the Niners defense.
24:37We really, Derek, haven't talked much about the Bills defense so far this season.
24:41I don't think they've been a game of the week since maybe week one.
24:45They played a Thursday night game. And so, again, talking just more about how the offenses looked in that game.
24:50As you went back and rewatched what the Jim Liner defense has looked like so far for Buffalo, what were your initial
24:56impressions, initial thoughts about just what they're trying to be on that side of the ball and what has stuck out about it?
25:03I think you got to kind of separate front from from back seven here for a lot of different reasons.
25:08I think the front is playing out of their mind.
25:11Like, I think that there's been so much talk about like what Deion Walker has been at Oliver getting back into the lineup.
25:17I think their D tackles have played really well.
25:20Landon Jackson as a defensive tackle conversion guy, I think, has actually been pretty good.
25:24solid for them. He was the one who I think forced the strip sack against Drake May last week.
25:29And then their edges are freaks, man. They've spent so long trying to be like, oh, we're going to have all these long 265 pound guys.
25:36And really, other than Greg Rousseau, not many of them have been like difference makers.
25:41But Bradley Chubb is awesome. And for a rookie who's off your bench, TJ Parker, I think has been really good for them.
25:47So I love what they are trying to be up front where it's a lot of we're choking the pocket.
25:52We're making sure we're getting setting the edge. Like, I think they've done really well there.
25:57The back end, they've had to simplify it for these guys.
26:00And I think that you're seeing it because it's just not a good group right now, especially with Christian Benford out.
26:06And I think a big thing that stuck out to me, especially in this last game against the Patriots, when they play
26:12all their zone stuff, anytime they get like three by one or anything like that, the backside corner is locked in man coverage.
26:18And they're just saying, hey, we don't want you seeing anything.
26:21We don't want you giving up air. Just press him and get hands on.
26:25And same thing with whoever the backside like flat defender is.
26:28They're just like run straight to the back, hug him.
26:31Do not let him out of the backfield. And I think that can work against certain teams.
26:35I think if we're going to spin it forward to this week against the Rams, if that's Devante Adams on the backside,
26:41if that's Kyron Williams out of the backfield, buddy, I don't know.
26:45I think the Rams probably have a pretty good matchup in that sense.
26:48I mean, they were struggling last week in one-on-one situations against the Patriots corners.
26:52And Matt Collins broke off. I think it was Ibn Ossian on like a deep end breaker.
26:57And the separation he creates at the top of that route, it's like, that's Matt Collins.
27:01If that's Puka or Devante Adams, I think it becomes even uglier.
27:05When I went back and watched it, disappoint is probably too strong a word.
27:08I was really curious about what a Jim Leonard defense would look like.
27:12And when you look at, and the front multiplicity and variability obviously has been tons more than it was last year.
27:18Guys are lining up in different places. We're slanting the front.
27:21We're doing it. It's just more alive up front than it was in previous iterations of this defense.
27:26But on the back end, it's been a lot of zone coverage.
27:29It's they're not blitzing very often. Like they're sending a decent amount of simulated pressures, which I think we should have assumed
27:35that Jim Leonard did a ton of that when he was at Wisconsin.
27:39It's a huge part of his background, but it's all just a little bit more boring.
27:43That I thought it was going to be. Like, do you think that's fair?
27:47Like overall, like when I watch it, it's all, it's all just a little bit more boring than I thought it was going to be.
27:54And that's fine. You can live that way. But the things about this defense that have been exciting to me are solely rooted in personnel.
28:01Like when I watched this group, Walker and Rousseau is what really jumped out to me, just how they're playing on an individual level.
28:07And I just thought overall, there would be a little bit more oomph and a little bit more life to some of
28:13the stuff that they were doing with Jim Leonard than there has been so far.
28:18Is that unfair? I am surprised that they are not bringing quite as much pressure and they're like middle of the pack in terms of blitzing.
28:25But I did think that they would be higher because when Jim Leonard, the last time we saw him really call a defense was, was Wisconsin.
28:32And they were throwing those linebackers at people all day.
28:35And granted, it was Leo Chennault and Jack Sanborn who are NFL players at the college level.
28:39So maybe that's why you think you can get away with it more.
28:43And these are our bills linebackers who are, they're a little bit smaller.
28:46Terrell Bernard and Doreen Williams are not going to blow anybody up.
28:50They're not going to move running backs. And so maybe that's part of it.
28:54But I did think that there would be a little bit more of that.
28:57The coverage stuff. I'm at least willing to give them a little bit of benefit of the doubt, just because I think
29:04that this is still not a very talented secondary outside of obviously, especially with Christian Benford now not playing.
29:09That was going to be my question is, do you think Jim Leonard trusts his guys to hold up if he tries to play it that crazy?
29:16No, I would clearly not. And I think that's a fair place to land right now with the way that the corners
29:22are playing and, and the bills defense has been consistently pretty mediocre on the back end so far this year.
29:28Anything else, Derek, about this matchup specifically that you think is worth paying attention to?
29:32In terms of Rams offense, bills defense, I do.
29:34I do actually. And I want to flip it back to the other side of the ball here with the Rams offense.
29:40When they've been elite at their best, Matthew Stafford is winning MVPs.
29:44It's because they've been able to stay out of the pure drop back passing downs.
29:48And that to me is not necessarily that Stafford can't see it.
29:51It's just that this is an offensive line that is not very good in pure pass protection spots and Stafford can't move.
29:57So he's going to stand on his spot. And if he's crowded, he's going to throw it and it's going to lead to some interceptions.
30:04And I think we've got a couple of stats that really back up that that's been more of an issue for them
30:10this year than it really was at any point last year.
30:13The Rams last season had 22 drop backs of second and 11 or longer.
30:17It was the lowest in the NFL by five.
30:20They already have 13 of those this season through four games is tied for the third most in the NFL.
30:25And that extends to third down on third down.
30:28They've had 15 drop backs of our last year in 2025.
30:31They had 15 third down drop backs of at least 11 yards to go lowest in the NFL again.
30:36This year they have 10 like they are almost there through four games and you are just and what's funny is normally
30:42you would think that's like, oh, well, maybe the run game kind of fell away and that's been more of an issue for them.
30:48It's really not. The run game is almost as successful and consistent as it was last year.
30:53It's penalties penalties are killing them and some of their first down past stuff is not as good because Pukundukua has been
30:59hurt and Terrence Ferguson's hurt now and they can't boot as much as they used to because I think they're worried about Stafford moving.
31:06And so some of the layers of stuff that was easy for them of getting into or getting away from pure past stuff.
31:12They've struggled with that this year and you're seeing it and that's where that's where the Stafford mistakes come from the interceptions the bad misses stuff like that.
31:20It's funny to think that we're heading into week five and I don't think we could possibly guess at what the Rams
31:26actually want to be because Puka got healthy just in time for them to be down two tight ends last week.
31:32I rewatched the Eagles Rams game and like seven snaps in.
31:35I was like, holy shit. Has this all been shotgun?
31:38They ran like 87% of their snaps out of the gun last week because they had to switch it up without their tight ends.
31:44I guess that's the reason, but it's what I've come away thinking about the Rams over the first month is that when
31:50this team was at its best last year, there were so few moments, so few games where they weren't the ones consistently
31:56dictating the terms of how things were going to go.
31:59And some of that is staying in the proper down and distances like Derek was talking about.
32:04When you're constantly in third and two, third and one, you can lean into under center play action stuff there where you're very rarely in pure pass.
32:11You can be the one that's dictating terms. I think this offense relies on that because of who the tackles are, because
32:17of who Stafford is at this point in his career.
32:20And when they're still a good offense, right? They're top 10 in virtually every single metric, but you feel the inconsistency because
32:26they're just playing the games purely on their terms less often than they were for the entirety of last season.
32:32And I'm willing to buy that they can get back there, right?
32:35Like when Puka Nakua comes back, like when Puka Nakua, I think ramps up because I do think last week he doesn't
32:41look fully like 100% like Puka Nakua. But if a month from now he does.
32:45Yeah, I bet the Rams can do a lot of the stuff that they want to again.
32:50But until we get there, there's going to be a little bit more herky jerkiness.
32:54I don't know what Colby Parkinson's status is for this game, but if he can play and I know Terrence Ferguson had
33:00to be moved to IR, which is a bummer.
33:02But if he can play, then the Rams would have their choice of their top four receivers because Jordan Whittington came back
33:08last week, too, or maybe it was two weeks ago, but he's back.
33:12He was back two weeks ago, but didn't play that much.
33:15He was still a little bit further down the depth chart.
33:18So you have your choice of your receivers and you do have three tight ends available to you.
33:23If if they have the full menu of who they want to put out there available, I'm just curious to see what
33:29it would look like, because like I said, I just I don't think they've been able to call it the way that
33:35they would prefer really to this point in the season.
33:38I don't say that to make excuses for them.
33:40And to your point, they've still been a successful offense for the most part.
33:44It just doesn't look as beautiful as it does when your quarterback's playing like an MVP and Stafford hasn't been terrible, but
33:50he hasn't he hasn't been on that level. And to Derek's point about what this looks like, I couldn't believe it when I looked it up.
33:57And again, so and I know they were playing in the rain, but like so many either miscommunications or outright drops like
34:04him and Devante Adams haven't other than that Giants game, like haven't consistently been on the same page.
34:08He has thrown five interceptions so far this year when throwing the ball 16 plus yards downfield in the like 16 plus air yards.
34:15He threw one interception on those types of throws all last year.
34:18So like you it's really obvious that even this offense for the most part is moving the ball and scoring points.
34:24Still, it's it's a far cry from what we got used to last year, at least to this point.
34:29Oh, they're just so inconsistent. Like they still have not found their footing in any way.
34:34And the other number I'd throw out again, just trying to paint a picture of the gap between what we saw from
34:40them last year and what we've seen from them this year.
34:43When this offense has been rolling 2021 Super Bowl year last season with Stafford winning the MVP, they've been one of the
34:49best teams in the league against the Blitz. It's it's a good bellwether, honestly, for how healthy the offense feels overall.
34:55This year, super small sample. We're throwing out constantly at this point in the season.
34:59And Stafford negative point two seven EPA per drop back, 42 percent success rate, 19 of 39 with three interceptions against the
35:05Blitz so far and open to the idea of that getting better over an entire season.
35:09But again, if you're trying to figure out like, why doesn't I quite feel the same offensively for the Rams as it did last year?
35:16I think there are a lot of different things you could point to.
35:20Let's go to the other side of the ball.
35:22Derek, the number one thing you're looking for when the Bills have the ball in this game, just based on what you've
35:28seen from Buffalo over the first month is what?
35:31I'm a little worried about the offensive line against the front like the Rams have like there.
35:36Obviously, you know, they're missing Miles Garrett, but it is still a very, very good Rams front even without him.
35:41And I think this Bills offensive line is not quite playing to the level that we have seen from them, especially, I think, in pass protection.
35:48Obviously, the first two weeks running the ball, they were unbelievable.
35:51But the run game has changed a little bit because of some of the ways that they're doing things.
35:56And I just think that like Osiris Torrance, I thought looked a little bit lost last week.
36:01And then the big one to me, Deion Dawkins just does not look like a set it and forget it sort of left tackle.
36:08Like, I think that you're just seeing he's trying to jump on guys a little bit more and it's losing him reps immediately.
36:14There were a couple of times where Gabe Aukis was just blowing him up last week.
36:18And that's that's kind of what Gabe Aukis does.
36:21But guess who can do that? The Rams guys.
36:23Look at this man just twisting this into Gabe Aukis propaganda.
36:26You're not going to do any argument for me.
36:29He always knows where he's trying to get to.
36:31Gabe Aukis is firmly on the short list of guys I get excited to see on my TV screen as far as the rookies go.
36:38I know my spot. I can find the corner three with my takes.
36:42But again, the Rams guys can do that. Byron Young can do that to you.
36:46Josiah Stewart can do that to you. Like, I just think that I think that they're going to have a little bit
36:52of issues in terms of the pure pass protection stuff.
36:55And I think if you were on the Bill side, the thing that you would really, really be hoping for is, OK,
37:01the Rams are playing a little bit more man coverage this year.
37:04Let's have DJ Moore out there. It gives us a chance against man coverage and it bumps all of our other wide
37:10receivers down the totem pole to where they can face some potentially lesser Rams DBs in terms of that mold.
37:16Well, if DJ Moore is not going to play and that seems pretty uncertain and Trent McDuffie is just going to go
37:22get to man up your best guy, it's really hard for me to see how the Bills guys separate consistently in this game.
37:28But I mean, even if DJ Moore is going to play like that, that's not really what DJ Moore is.
37:34DJ Moore in a shoulder harness going against Trent McDuffie doesn't sound like an advantage for the Bills.
37:39No. So especially not with how he's playing this year.
37:41McDuffie, that is. That's what I mean. This version of Trent McDuffie against DJ Moore, even at 100 percent like DJ Moore
37:47is not some separation creating man coverage beater. Like that's never been who he is.
37:52And so I think overall, those matchups on the outside very much favor the Rams.
37:56I'm curious what the approach is for Buffalo offensively in this game, because you look at what they did last week.
38:01We mentioned on the recap show very little like super heavy personnel compared to what it had been over the first few weeks.
38:08I think Joe Brady came out and said that part of that might have been because DJ Moore got hurt mid game
38:14and he was the sole receiver in some of those 13 personnel looks.
38:17He very coach. He coach spoke his way through it, but he said he was like last week's game was weird.
38:23And, you know, part of the plan changed when DJ Moore got hurt.
38:27And you took the words right out of my mouth when we talked about it is like if DJ Moore is unavailable,
38:33wouldn't you look for more opportunities for Dalton Kincaid to be your guy as a pass catcher instead of running 17 routes in a game?
38:40I think the thought of who needs to play the one receiver role in 13 personnel is just anybody.
38:45Like anybody, that is what I would guess. Pop, pop, pop, whoever you want out there.
38:49Like the amount of Kanata Mumfield, Xavier Smith snaps to to Atwell snaps that we've gotten out of those looks from the
38:55Rams over the last couple of years. Like it could truly be anybody that you want.
39:00I haven't checked the numbers this year, so it might be different, but I'm pretty sure last year Mumfield was the Rams top guy in 13.
39:07That's because the other guys were getting breathers when they were in that.
39:11And so the idea. So, I mean, the bill, the bills are second in the league in 13 personnel snaps right now.
39:17They're the only team that's really even in the Rams zip code.
39:20They ran seven last week. And if DJ Moore being hurt is the reason why they ditched it, that's just kind of
39:26wild to me, like for every reason that you just said.
39:29So I'm curious to see if they maintain that because I don't, it just, it looked too good to completely scrap it no matter who's available.
39:36Again, we could say some million things about every single stat we're going to mention.
39:40Small sample, but 16 dropbacks out of base personnel for the Rams this year.
39:44They've been good on those 16 dropbacks. I still, if I were building a plan for the bills, getting those three guys
39:50out there, making them play with bigger bodies and seeing if I could both run the ball downhill and throw the ball
39:56against those looks, that's probably what I'd be trying to lean into if I were Buffalo.
40:01That is a hundred percent what I would be trying to do.
40:04And I will say one interesting thing there, the Rams will play even out of base personnel.
40:09A lot of like the six one fronts, they'll put space on the line or something like that and have Landman just be a solo guy.
40:16So that does kind of feel like a decent answer.
40:19If the bills are going to play a lot of those like five man surfaces and just spread stuff out, but we'll, we'll see how it goes.
40:26All right. We're going to take our first quick break and then come back and spend a little time in the danger zone.
40:32We trotted this out, I think heading into week three, right?
40:35That sounds right. Yeah. Where we spent a little bit of time with teams that circling the drain might be strong, but
40:42should be feeling an increased sense of urgency. And to be clear, the team that we're going to talk about that is
40:48living in the danger zone right now, we were going to do this before they had the last couple of days that
40:54they had, before Lane Johnson retired, before Cam Juergens got traded.
40:57We were already going to talk about the fact that it seemed like this Eagle season was on life support.
41:02It doesn't feel less like that now. I was so proud of us for trotting this takeout on Tuesday morning.
41:08Like, yeah, hey, Eagles are two and two, but we need to be talking about this.
41:12And I mean, two hours after our first production call of the week, Lane Johnson retired.
41:17So I was like, all right, well, this is hardly a hot take anymore.
41:20And then they traded Cam Juergens. So, yeah, it happens when you record the show on Thursday.
41:25But I mean, it is, it's still a point worth making, even if it's not a hot take anymore.
41:30Yeah, it's everything that's happened doesn't make this conversation less relevant.
41:33It makes it potentially even more relevant. If you guys want to hear like a breakdown of the Juergens trade specifically, what
41:39it means for Philly, what it means for Baltimore.
41:42Deontay and I spent a lot of time digging into that on yesterday's show.
41:46Just why the Eagles would be willing to do this in this moment.
41:49I think it's pretty self-explanatory. It's a fantastic return on a guy who wasn't playing very well, has some injury concerns and
41:55is making a decent amount of money. For the Ravens, it's a, we're trying to save our season because our offense is playing at a really high level.
42:03We need a center. I get it from both sides, even if it's an overpay.
42:07What we didn't really do on that show because it, the, where it fell in the news cycle and the fact that
42:13the Juergens trade happened right before we started recording.
42:16I want to take a minute just to talk about Lane Johnson and Lane Johnson's career before we dig into the current
42:22state of the Philadelphia Eagles, because this is one of the best players of his generation at any position.
42:27And I think just a little bit of Lane Johnson career celebration is worth it before we dig into everything else we want to talk about here.
42:34It's weird to do it in the middle of the go, go, go cycle of getting ready for the upcoming weekend.
42:40But it, yes, I mean, this is a, this is a no doubt instant hall of famer.
42:45I was thinking about this. People were talking about it on social media.
42:49I mean, in the pantheon of offensive linemen, like right tackles, potentially probably the best ever.
42:53Yeah. I'd have to go back and look at the actual list, but certainly in the conversation.
42:58And I think did a lot to reframe what we, how we see right tackles, how we compensate right tackles, how we
43:04talk about right tackles, the closing gap between how we value guys at that position.
43:08I mean, for a long time, he was treated as an outlier contractually go ask Mitch about it and how pissed off he was.
43:14The fact that they treated lane as an outlier contractually.
43:17When I started actually lane's draft was my first draft covering the NFL number four overall pick in 2013 day one starter,
43:23you know, all the accolades five, five, all pros one, both that was on both of Philly's Superbowl teams.
43:28When I started covering this, even in 2013, it was still like, ah, he's probably got to be a right tackle in the NFL though.
43:35Like he's not, he's not there. No, no, no, no, no.
43:38I just, in general, in football, it was still very much.
43:41Oh yes. That's how we talked about right tackles.
43:44Yes. Like, oh, like he's great, but he's got to play right tackle in the NFL because he's lesser, you know, or
43:50like he's not the athlete or, or whatever it might be.
43:53He doesn't have the traits to play left tackle Lane Johnson.
43:56And, and I don't know, he has more traits than any tackle that's come into the draft in the last 20 years.
44:02Yeah. It's not, it's not all him. Other guys were part of it, but like he was at the forefront of this surge of right tackle being valued.
44:10And you could be arguably, or definitely the best offensive lineman in football and play right tackle.
44:14Like as recently as like 2013, it wasn't always viewed that way.
44:18Okay. Everyone assumed he would just move over to the left side when Jason Peters moved on.
44:22That just never happened. Cause it doesn't have to happen.
44:25We would do this because you typically leave left tackles on an Island more than you leave right tackles.
44:30That, that just the construction of your offense, the Eagles did not do that.
44:34And I think that if you're trying to articulate the greatness of like what may lay Johnson such a special player, I
44:40think when you're comparing him to the best left tackle of the past 10 years, a guy like Trent Williams, we talk about this all the time.
44:48If I showed my wife clips of Trent Williams, like as a run blocker, she would very easily be able to understand
44:54why Trent Williams was like a special player. But because Lane's greatness manifested so much in past protection, it was just a
45:00quieter version of utter complete and consistent dominance. And it's the way they used him.
45:04I had such a great conversation with Jordan Mailata at training camp this year.
45:08And we were talking about the new offense and what the new offense was asking of them.
45:13And he was telling me just about talking to Lane about the fact that they had a little bit more help and
45:19that there are times where the guard would slide their way.
45:22And they were just like, holy shit, you can do this.
45:25This is something you can do in an NFL offense because for years and years and years, they and especially Lane were
45:31just asked to be on an island constantly. Like what they were asking him to do within the offense, the offense could
45:37be what it could be because of what you could put on Lane Johnson.
45:41He was a singular player in a lot of ways, specifically at that position.
45:45And I think we just didn't talk about it or notice it often enough because, again, his version of being great was
45:51just a little bit quieter and a little bit less flashy than some other offensive lineman.
45:55Well, and it's how often do we talk about with offensive linemen?
45:58The best thing that you can do as an offensive lineman during the game is that nobody even thinks about you being there.
46:05And Lane Johnson is the most you just kind of forget that anything is even happening on the right side because he's
46:11never giving up pressures, never giving up sacks. He was an incredible model for consistency.
46:15And Dave, I'm glad you said 2013 was your first draft.
46:18That was my first draft doing any of this stuff.
46:21And I remember like so Lane Johnson for the entirety of the time that I've been doing this job, it's been him
46:27and Trent Williams for like if I was doing the all Derek career team, those are the tackles.
46:32And so the fact that one of them is now is now gone is really sad because he truly was a really special player for a long time.
46:39Math is not my strong suit. It's why I, one of the reasons I wanted to pursue a career in writing, but
46:45I did some quick math on just what Lane Johnson did over the course of his career.
46:50So just shy of 12,000 career snaps, 6,500 pass blocking opportunities, 295 career pressures allowed.
46:54So I averaged that out by a per game basis.
46:57A pressure allowed every 22 pass blocks. Yeah, it's ridiculous.
47:00But then I was curious too, 40% Robert of his career pressures allowed came in the first three years of his career.
47:06So from 2016 to 2026, he was allowing a pressure every 30 pass block opportunities, which like, you know, an offensive tackle,
47:12it might be between like 30 and 35 opportunities a game.
47:15So over the course of his career, depending on whether you want to do all 14 years or just the last 10,
47:21he was at, he was allowing an average between one and two pressures a game for 14 freaking years, dude.
47:26And then if you want to do sacks, 33 sacks allowed in 188 games.
47:30Do the math, depending on when you want to start over the course of his entire career, he was allowing a sack every five or six games.
47:38And again, 11 of his 33 sacks allowed came when he was a rookie.
47:42So if you just nix out the rookie year and go by the other 13 years of his career, he was allowing
47:48a sack every eight games for 13 years. It's absolutely incredible.
47:51A singular career. And one other thing I wanted to say, because, you know, the circumstances of this suck, obviously, like, you
47:57know, he's, he's long been a mental health advocate.
47:59He stepped away. I think it was in 2021 for a few games.
48:03Yeah, I think it, yeah. Yes. I can't remember the exact circumstances.
48:06It had something to do with the medication he was on and just some of the things that they were dealing with,
48:12but he's obviously dealing with something very serious and much more than football.
48:16And the idea that he would be stepping away for something that it wasn't incredibly critical.
48:20Remember, this is a man who played through a torn abductor when the Eagles had a shot to win a Super Bowl in 2020.
48:27I think it was 2022 season. He played through a torn abductor in the playoffs just to give you an idea of whatever he might be dealing with.
48:34So I just, I wish him the best on a personal level.
48:38And obviously the timing sucks, but to like, to question what Lane Johnson is all about over it, just off.
48:43Imagine how hard that decision must be. Yeah. To walk away from not only your, your, the locker room, your teammates, but
48:49to walk away from a place where I assume there's a comfort, there's a familiarity, there's a purpose.
48:54Like, I can't even imagine how difficult that decision was.
48:57And everything about this, both the Lane Johnson element of it and just the fallout and kind of the, the Eagles and
49:03the way that they've reacted to it is just such a reminder that these are people.
49:08And I'll say I'm guilty of this sometimes where I think we can talk about football on a schematic level and they
49:14can be X's and O's on a chalkboard. And we kind of remove, remove the humanity from it a little bit too often.
49:20But the guy that I really was paying attention to over the last 48 hours is Jordan Malata.
49:25I mean, Jordan Malata is living the Will Smith living room meme right now.
49:29Yeah. I mean, he's been the guy that, that, that entire group was together for years and years and years.
49:34Landon Dickerson's hurt right now. Lane Johnson just retired.
49:37Cam Juergens gets traded. And they asked him yesterday about the Juergens trade.
49:40And he, he talked about how after they heard about it, they both like shared a moment that cried the, they asked
49:46him like, you know, have his lane moving on?
49:49Is that made you think about how long you'll play?
49:52And he's like, yes. But at this point, like, I can't think about that.
49:55It's something I got to put in the background.
49:58I have to be the one who helps turn this thing around.
50:01And so I just, the entire, on multiple different levels, I think the human aspect of this has been front and center
50:07in a way that we don't always spend a lot of time focusing on, but probably should.
50:12Malata and Dickerson were the newcomers to this thing too.
50:15Like what, what feels like yesterday, you know, it feels like yesterday that I was like, holy shit, this Jordan Malata guy is really good.
50:22Where did he come from? He's like Jesus. And now, yeah, he's him.
50:25And I mean, and Dickerson's obviously not available right now.
50:28So among guys that can play, he's the last one.
50:31And I think that's really important place to transition here.
50:33It really does feel like we're moving to a different era.
50:36It really does feel like this era of Philadelphia Eagles football.
50:40Like just think about how we defined this team the year they won the Super Bowl.
50:44Think about the personalities, the players, the play style that really dictated how we thought about the Eagles over the last four or five years.
50:51Jason Kelsey's gone. Lane Johnson's gone. Landon Dickerson is hurt.
50:54AJ Brown is no longer here. It really does feel like we're moving into a different place.
50:58And I don't know what that means for the rest of this season.
51:02I said it yesterday and I maintained. I don't think the Cam Juergens trade is a signal that it's a fire sale.
51:08Like I wouldn't be calling about Quinion Mitchell and Cooper Dejean.
51:11That's not what this is. I think it was a deal that was too good to pass up.
51:16But on the offensive side of the ball, it really does feel like we could see this group potentially continue to spiral over the course of this season.
51:24And that was the conversation we were going to be having in this segment specifically, even before things like the Cam Juergens trade.
51:30And so I'm in a spot right now where I think this could get pretty ugly over the course of the year.
51:36And I'm not sure what salvages it. Over the course of this season, I think it's going to get very ugly because
51:42like in I think from a what they want to be standpoint, they already wanted to be a different era of Eagles football going into this season.
51:49You know, Stoutland being out of the building, they bring in Sean Mannion to run a different kind of offense than they'd brought before.
51:56AJ Brown is out of the building like they already wanted to be something else.
52:00But then you get some of the other injuries, Lane's retiring.
52:03And I think the Cam Juergens trade to me is not fire sale, but it's kind of an admission of like, OK,
52:09us trying to change it this year. We just got to like kind of start over fresh on this side of the ball.
52:16And I think that that's kind of where they're headed.
52:18And I think it's going to make for a very tough season this year because I think it was already going to
52:24be difficult trying to get, you know, new system.
52:27These guys are learning how to be more wide zone, all that stuff.
52:31Well, now you're doing it with Jordan Mailata is the only good guy they wanted out there.
52:35And, you know, Tyler Steen was a starter coming into the year, but I think he's been very up and down.
52:41But otherwise, it's a lot of young players. It's a lot of guys who are supposed to be depth pieces for them.
52:47And they don't have any of the pass catchers like healthy and available that they want to like fix this thing.
52:53Like Devonta Smith's been banged up. Dallas Goddard's not been out there.
52:56Like it's it is harder to see the light at the end of the tunnel than you would want for a team
53:02that is four weeks into this new thing. So I have a couple thoughts.
53:06I can't go. I can't go all the way there with y'all, although it does.
53:10It does remind me of 2024 for the wrong reasons, because remember 2024, they went down to Tampa and got the shit
53:16beat out of them going into their bye week.
53:19They got healthy on the week off. They retooled and they only lost one more game the rest of the way.
53:25But Lane didn't play that game in Tampa and neither did Devonta Smith or AJ Brown.
53:29And so like you had all this room for optimism, like we're going to get healthy.
53:33Three of our absolute best players are going to be back.
53:36And that made all the difference in the world.
53:39What are those reinforcements like? It's Devonta Smith. Devonta Smith.
53:42And that's not enough. That's not enough. Not nearly enough.
53:44OK, I will say this, though. Devonta Smith, Dallas Goddard.
53:47I think it goes underrated that Zach Bond didn't play against the Rams the other day.
53:51I don't think the Eagles are going to be like, I don't think they're going to spiral into being terrible, at least not without more injuries coming.
53:59But and I was the one fighting for the Eagles at the table heading into the season.
54:04I think I thought they had Super Bowl potential and I think they had Super Bowl expectations.
54:08Even if I don't think the Eagles are going to be terrible, that ship has sailed for me.
54:13Like the idea that they are on that level, it's it's it's over.
54:17And I did I definitely didn't expect to be there in week five.
54:20I think this team could mess around and and flirt with 500 or be over 500, depending on a few variables.
54:26But that even if you disagree, the fact that that is what I think they're capable of it.
54:31I mean, it's it speaks to how off the rails this season has already gone because we had a fight about whether
54:37they belonged at our table of Super Bowl contenders.
54:40And that seems laughable right now. I write and maybe this is reacting too much to what the last couple weeks have been like.
54:46They almost beat the Rams, but the Rams tried to give them that game like a half dozen times and they still couldn't win.
54:53I honestly I think about the state of the offense right now.
54:56The fact that the offensive line is going to be what it is for as excited as I am to watch Willie Lampkin play NFL football.
55:03I'm not sure that's enough for the Eagles offense looking like a buttoned up put together unit over the course of the season.
55:10If I had to bet on it right now, it's October 8th.
55:13I think I would depending on the odds you gave me, I would be more apt to bet on the Eagles to
55:19have a top 10 pick than I would be for them to be a playoff team.
55:23Top 10. Top 10 means seven wins or less.
55:26Just just making sure you're aware. The offense is unwatchable and the defense has been fine.
55:30Like fine. We thought the defense might be one of those like you season changing units.
55:35They've been disappointing, but there's still reason to think that they could be better.
55:39But let's just say their finishes the ninth best defense in the league and the offense is bottom eight at best over the course of the year.
55:46That's a team that wins seven games and picks ninth in the draft.
55:50It's on the table, which. I did not see coming, obviously.
55:53And and I would have I would have felt comfortable saying all of this stuff if Lane Johnson still played for the Eagles.
55:59And so that just exacerbates it even more. You have this tension with the Eagles building and you've seen it over the last 24 hours.
56:06Howie Roseman. Can operate with as much patience and distance from what's happening as he possibly wants.
56:11If the Eagles win six games this year, which they'll probably win more than that.
56:15They already have two wins. Howie Roseman is not losing his job.
56:18He can trade players. And I know Cam Juergens is not was not playing well, but just in a vacuum.
56:24He can trade players for 20, 28 picks because he knows he's going to be here.
56:28The coaching staff doesn't have that luxury. And so that that tension to me is interesting, to say the least.
56:33We talk in memes too often, but like the meme of the person drowning and they just get a high five like that's Nick Sirianni.
56:40Like Howie Roseman's like, we've got two ones and two twos in 2028, baby.
56:44And Sirianni is just waving for help as much as he can.
56:48Let's stick with a little danger zone talk here and talk about another.
56:51Let's call it interesting coaching dynamic in the NFL right now.
56:54Came out today. Curious how you want to frame this came out today that let's call it this.
56:59The Broncos are going to have a more collaborative process with the way that they're calling plays on Sunday against the Chargers
57:05and moving forward, meaning that Sean Payton is going to be more involved in what that looks like after a month of
57:11getting this from Davis Webb, not even a month.
57:14It took less than a month for Sean Payton to say, you know what?
57:18This wasn't a good idea. I'm going to be the play caller again.
57:21If I had said that to you in May, like if we had made the joke in May that Sean Payton would
57:27take play calling back less than a month into the season, we would have been like, ah, that's a little too glib.
57:33Like be realistic. Don't be don't be a jerk.
57:36If it happens, it'll happen later in the year.
57:38Like that would have felt too knee jerk. And reality is less, less than a calendar month.
57:43The season started on September 13th. They couldn't get to Halloween before Sean Payton was like, I got to take it back.
57:49And then, you know, they didn't say that he's immediately taking all of it back.
57:53But the fact that he is going to have more thumb on the scale to me means that like it's his offense.
57:59Well, some of the messaging was that Davis Webb is still going to be really involved in the process and everything else.
58:05Yeah. He's the offensive coordinator of the team. Of course.
58:08Even if he wasn't the play caller, he has a huge hand in the game planning.
58:12Like outside of getting fired, I would assume that he would continue to have a huge hand in the game planning.
58:18Listen, this is Davis Webb's fault. When you're looking at your play sheet, you have to pick the plays from the section
58:24of the play sheet that say the quarterback actually throws the ball.
58:27If you're not going to do that, then you're just it's a recipe for disaster.
58:32The line that the section that is four lines long in the whole the whole dinner menu of plays, there's four lines at the bottom.
58:39I was joking with y'all during the production meeting.
58:41Like, I don't even know. I don't know how much I could have gleaned from the 49ers defense against Denver because like the open receivers were there.
58:48Like, I don't know the right plays were called.
58:51The good plays were called. The balls weren't thrown.
58:53So, yeah, I don't know what this is going to do.
58:56The question I wanted to ask you is in a world where Josh Allen doesn't lose his mind and the Bills don't
59:02turn the ball over five times in the divisional round of the playoffs.
59:06Let's say the Bills win that game. Do you think that this happens or do you just like let Davis Webb leave?
59:12Because like to me, this this whole thing feels like a symptom of being that agonizingly close where you're like one freak
59:18injury away from playing in the Super Bowl probably.
59:21And so like that, that need to hold on to everything that you can just overtakes everything else.
59:26But that wasn't the status quo, though. He wasn't the play caller.
59:29It feels like. But like if you fall two games short of the Super Bowl instead of one.
59:34Do you say f*** it would anybody leave that wants to leave?
59:37Well, not not will let anybody leave. But like if somebody comes calling about Davis Webb and you lose the divisional round,
59:43you're like, OK, that's that's probably for the best.
59:46And like, good luck to you instead of being like, hey, man, we were we were right there.
59:51Because like what other reason would you do this for?
59:53That was what I always thought it was about.
59:56I don't really understand it even from that perspective, because it's this happens.
59:59Like if you have a good team and you win a bunch of games and you have coaches on your staff that
60:06are lower level guys, they're going to get hired away to get some of these roles.
60:10And so the idea that we had to give Davis Webb play calling so he wouldn't get hired away and be the play caller somewhere else.
60:17Isn't the entire point of having Sean Payton as your head coach so you don't have to worry about this shit?
60:23Well, yes. But you know what's funny now that I'm thinking about it?
60:26Sean Payton forever had an offensive coordinator that wasn't going anywhere.
60:30Pete Carmichael is his offensive coordinator forever in New Orleans and was never leaving.
60:33And so there's some amount of like he's used to that.
60:36But Davis Webb wasn't the offensive coordinator last year.
60:39Right. Joel Lombardi was the offensive coordinator last year.
60:41Davis Webb was the quarterback's coach. The idea that like we have to elevate our quarterback's coach to offensive coordinator in order to not lose him.
60:49Why? Like what is the reason for that? I think he was.
60:52Yeah, he was past game coordinator too. Excuse me.
60:54Excuse me. Just for the record. My God. We're halfway there.
60:57I remember we were in Indianapolis when it came down that this was going to happen.
61:02And in the moment we were all just like, okay, A, why?
61:05And B, how long do you think that's going to last?
61:08And like I said, to be proven right this quickly, like the truth is stranger than fiction.
61:13You know what I mean? Like I whole thing felt unnecessary.
61:16And I mean, maybe it'll help. Hopefully it helps.
61:18Yeah. Sean Payton is just going to call the plays where the quarterback throws the ball and that's going to change everything.
61:24That's all you really need to do. All right.
61:27Let's take one more quick break and then come back and hit one thing from a couple more of these week five matchups.
61:33Going to move through these pretty quickly. One thing from Ravens Falcons that I want to focus on.
61:38It's pretty simple. Can you stop the run if you're the Ravens?
61:41You look at what the Falcons have done over the last couple of weeks.
61:45Right now, Atlanta leads the league with a 51.1% rushing success rate per next gen.
61:49They've done what they've wanted on the ground. It's been absolutely incredible.
61:53Bajan has been phenomenal. We talked a lot about him yesterday with me and Deontay just sitting with the Falcons as being
61:59one of the coolest surprises of the season so far.
62:02The Ravens, their approach to run defense this year has really jumped out to me just in the sense of what Jesse Minter has been trying to do.
62:09They've been comfortable playing base to 12 personnel consistently, which is going to be a lot of what they're going to see against Atlanta this weekend.
62:16So I expect to see a decent amount of that.
62:19Overall, the Ravens have just been willing to play with heavier boxes than Minter was playing with last year.
62:24I think some of that is dictated by the teams that are playing against.
62:28If you look at the blocked box rate, so just the sheer number of snaps, the percentage of snaps where they have
62:34fewer defenders in the box than blockers, it's not that far off from what the Chargers were doing last year.
62:40And so the fact that they've been in light boxes 12 percentage points less than the Chargers were last year.
62:45I think it's like 43% to 21%. Some of that is dictated by opponent and just the way the teams are playing you.
62:52But overall, the Ravens have been willing to play with heavier boxes than the Chargers did last year.
62:57And next gen this year is doing it's actually very cool.
63:00Some of the stats are split up by actual run concepts.
63:03And again, small sample for games. But the Chargers or the Ravens this year so far have been top four in success rate against zone runs specifically.
63:10And obviously against the Chargers or against the Falcons, Derek, that's where they're going to be seeing a lot of.
63:16That's what the whole thing still is. You know, that's a lot of what they do because that's what Bajon Robinson is good at.
63:22He's just the way that he sees it, the way that he cuts is really special.
63:27I do think the Ravens defense has a good chance for a few reasons.
63:30Like I think the way that some of their edges are playing in run defense is really impressive.
63:35Like Zion Young is really, really good at that.
63:38I think Mike Green has been better in that sense.
63:41The linebackers, especially Trenton Simpson has taken a massive step this year.
63:44I think that he is playing really, really well for them.
63:47But to me, the big difference from especially what I think we've seen from these last couple of games against, you know,
63:53where the Falcons are playing the Packers and they're playing against the Saints, the Saints, especially their defensive tackles don't really get
63:59up the field and they're not that explosive. It's a lot of we're sitting on our spot where, you know, you're going
64:05to get four hands on us and we're going to try not to move that far.
64:10And I thought the Falcons did a really good job of handling that stuff.
64:13The Ravens guys will try to get upfield a little bit more like Travis Jones can be explosive.
64:18Matt Abike, you know, he's still working into the lineup and stuff, but he can do that.
64:23And I just think that their run tools are better in terms of when they're firing linebackers, how they're doing it.
64:29So I think the Ravens have a decent chance.
64:31I think we'll still get, you know, three digits from Bajon Robinson.
64:35I just don't know if it'll be 180 and three touchdowns the way that it's, you know, been the last couple of weeks.
64:41The other thing worth mentioning about this game, it really doesn't seem like Lamar is going to play.
64:46And why I wanted to mention that, I think it's two things.
64:49One, now we're in a spot where the Falcons beat the Lamar-less Ravens based on how Atlanta's played over the last couple of weeks.
64:56I don't think it would really shock anybody, right?
64:58I'd pick them if Lamar's not playing. Which, good opportunity to say, my bad, Falcons.
65:02I didn't know you were capable of this when I was making fun of you for playing three games in primetime in a row.
65:09We already did that mea culpa when you were gone.
65:12Oh, my bad. I'm sorry. We can continue to apologize for it.
65:15But I think everyone has made that apology at this point.
65:18I do want to say, though, I'm just not to say that they can't do it.
65:23And if Lamar doesn't play, I agree with Derek.
65:25This is a very winnable game for Atlanta. I want to see what it looks like when you don't run for literally 200 yards.
65:32Anything short of that. Well, I mean, that's the thing.
65:34Yeah. Can the Ravens prevent them from running for 200 yards?
65:37That's going to be the question. On that side of the ball, I just think it's worth mentioning.
65:42Lamar, over the first four weeks of the season, in my opinion, was the best player in football.
65:47The way that he was playing. And the Ravens have had a weird year.
65:51Like, they shut it down at halftime essentially twice.
65:54Lamar missed the second half of the last game.
65:56Like, Zay Flowers has been in and out of the lineup.
65:59But just watching how Lamar has been playing on a down-to-down basis, it makes me sad that that's getting derailed in any way.
66:06The hope is he misses a game or two, comes back and continues to play at that level.
66:11If that's the case, then the Ravens are ridiculously scary.
66:13But if this ankle, either because he's not 100% when he comes back or he's knocked out of the flow, the way
66:19he was playing before he got hurt, derails or affects the Lamar Jackson season that we were about to get with how
66:25he was playing in a new offense, that's like a tragedy.
66:28Because I think over the first month of the year, those first four games, if you just watch him down-to-down, the way
66:34he was playing the position, he again had the game in the palm of his hand in the way it felt like
66:41he did in 2024 over those first four games.
66:43He's been sensational, dude. And I know that, like, Zay Flowers has been really good in the way that they've been scheming up.
66:49Zay Flowers has been really impressive. But the pass-catching group is not, like, electric outside of that.
66:54He was just making this work with Matthew Hibner's getting reps and, like, just all the other secondary receivers that they've had.
67:00Like, these, Lamar Jackson was truly playing on, like, a really, really high level again.
67:04And not a lot of it was as a designed runner.
67:07You know, I think we came into the season being like, how much are they going to do any of that?
67:13It really has been him from the pocket dicing people up.
67:16And so if he's going to miss more than a couple of games, that is going to get a little bit dangerous.
67:22I do have some faith, though, that I'm pretty bought in on the Jesse Minter defense.
67:27And I do think that, like, the more they play, the better they will be.
67:31And there's a chance that they can just be really good for a month and win some games and keep them alive.
67:37But I think, to your point of what you said, what does Lamar look like when he comes back?
67:42That, to me, I think is the bigger question.
67:44Can they survive for three weeks? I'm totally—I would totally believe that he just looks the same.
67:49He comes back. He's healthy. He looks as good as he did at the start.
67:53Because I think some of this is the offense, Declan Doyle, the way that Zay is playing.
67:58But I just firmly believe that when he's at his best, I think he's just the best player in the league.
68:04And when we—like, the way that we saw him play in 2024 and the way we saw him play over the first
68:10month, like, I just think that's the best player in football when he's playing like that.
68:14And so if he doesn't get back to that level in week six, seven, whenever, again, that's like a tragedy in my mind.
68:21I still think the Ravens will be very good.
68:23I'm—I think he probably can get back to that level.
68:26But it's just at least worth monitoring. And the only reason I'm saying that is because of how scary good he was over the first four games.
68:33And he was hampered most of last year, too.
68:36And hopefully, if he needs to sit for a week or even two weeks to keep that from repeating itself, by all means.
68:42Let's get to one thing from Raiders Patriots. Derek, one thing you're watching, Raiders Patriots.
68:46Lay it on me. Yeah, this is—I'm looking at the man coverage from the Patriots.
68:50Now, this is interesting. They have been a defense that wants to do a lot of that.
68:55But no, Christian Gonzalez, he did not play last week.
68:58And I don't think Carlton Davis has been practicing much this week.
69:01And so that's going to be an issue for them.
69:04I still think that this is a lot of what they want to do.
69:08And I think I'm kind of of two minds about how that's going to work against the Raiders.
69:13They don't have very many good man-beating receivers. But they have one who is really, really difficult to deal with in Brock Bowers.
69:19And they do a really good job of scheming him up, whether it's putting him on stacks, you know, or as the
69:25second man in stacks so they can't get hands on him early.
69:28They can do switch verts, you know, switch stem stuff where it's a little bit hard for the DB to know exactly
69:34which way he's going to break and get him some open stuff.
69:38And I think why that would be particularly, I think, good for the Raiders potentially this week, especially if Gonzalez and Carlton Davis aren't going to play.
69:45Bowers proved last week that even against the longer corners like LeJarrius Sneed, he can still separate at the catch point and make plays.
69:52The Patriots guys are small. Marcus Jones is not big.
69:54Kendall Vildor is not big. And so if Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez are not going to play, I still kind of
70:01expect the Patriots to do some of this because that's what they do.
70:04And when you couple that with how well their edge guys crush the pocket, it's kind of what I said with, you
70:10know, the Rams game and the Bills. If you crush the pocket on Kirk Cousins and you hit him, he's going to leave you some dicey ones.
70:18And I think you don't want to play zone against Kirk because he'll dice you up.
70:22And so I think just how much they can get away with man, I think that kind of decides how well this game goes for the Patriots defense.
70:30I feel like it's flying under the radar. I think the Patriots defense is a step up from what it was last year.
70:36I'm curious to see what this looks like. I think it's more just that they've maintained the level we saw in the
70:42final like four to six weeks of last season.
70:45And that was my question. It's like, was that just kind of a flash in the pan or were they going to carry that over?
70:51And the fact that for the most part, I think it's fair to say they have carried that over.
70:57They've looked like that group again. And I just wasn't sure if that was going to happen.
71:01We see that all the time where we had these spikes in the back half last year.
71:06Look at the Saints defense. The Saints defense is like a top five unit in the back half of last year.
71:12What has it been this year? Like there we have these kind of false signals all the time where.
71:17All right. Is that was that real? Do we expect that to continue?
71:21And for the Patriots, I think that's exactly what's happened.
71:23One of those teams drafted Gabe Aukis and the other didn't.
71:26I'm just saying. Spent a little bit of time on Sicko Street before we get out of here.
71:31We don't have to spend a ton of time on this, but Colts Steelers.
71:35Both of these teams are two and two. But the vibes just feel like absolutely rancid in both of these places.
71:41Mike McCarthy coming out this week saying we got to clean the house up a little bit, which is just the constant dialogue I'm having with my wife.
71:49And then on the Colts side of it. Both of these teams and making the moves they did at quarterback, bringing back
71:55Rogers, bringing back Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles.
71:57You're really trying to thread a needle. You're really trying to land a plane that is difficult to land where all these other things, if they go right.
72:05Is this the right guy to kind of take us where we want to go to make it all come together?
72:11And you watch both of these offenses and just how uninspired and really disappointing the Colts passing game specifically has looked.
72:17And their returns have not been there. Like neither one of those plans is working in the way that these teams would
72:23have hoped in the best case scenario. And I think that you're really feeling that right now for both the Steelers and the Colts.
72:29I just can't think of a more sad place to be than like not bad, but without like a truly high ceiling.
72:35Like, I mean, these teams are two and two.
72:38They're capable. I mean, the Steelers beat the Bengals this year.
72:41The Colts beat the Texans. They're not bad football teams.
72:44But where is this realistically going for either of them?
72:46And that's just it's a it's a meh, bland, sad place to be, in my opinion.
72:51And it's hard to see how it gets at least, you know, at least on the Steelers side, like you have out
72:57of the four units in this game, probably the only one that's like mildly above average in their defense.
73:02You know, their defense is solid. But both of these offenses with Rogers, it's a week to week thing based on what does he want?
73:09What is he willing to throw this week? Like every now and then you get the games where he's willing to be
73:15a little bit more aggressive and he's willing to chuck it down the field or it's schemed up super well.
73:20But those games are once every three games, once every four games.
73:24And then I think with the Colts, we've seen like they can't be any of what they want to be because I
73:30don't think Daniel Jones can push the ball down the field.
73:33And even if he could, the one guy you wanted there to be able to do that stuff, Alec Pierce, is not healthy.
73:39And so when you're pushing the ball down the field to Laquan Treadwell, it matters a little bit less.
73:44It's just not the same. It's not hitting the same when when you're throwing it to those guys.
73:49And so I think the Colts have just struggled to be the offense they want to be at all.
73:55And then it just feels like with with the Steelers offense, you're just kind of spinning the wheel and hoping you come up on a good thing.
74:02Well, maybe it'll come up good this week based on Sauce Gardner's play in London.
74:06And I appreciate him saying he was embarrassed to watch the tape back because it was a it was a brutal showing
74:12for a guy that you just traded two ones for.
74:15So curious. Hopefully he looks more like the sauce they traded for in this matchup.
74:19I think that's probably if I were I think the Colts situation is bleaker than what the current Steelers situation is.
74:25Yeah, because the Steelers aren't pot committed to anything.
74:27They're not. No, exactly. The Steelers aren't pot committed to anything.
74:30They you look at what the Steelers have done, like the way that the offensive line is capable of playing the way
74:36the run game has looked the way that the defense looks like I still think I feel about the Steelers kind of
74:43exact same way I felt about the Steelers coming into the year.
74:46Like I still think there's enough to be excited about across the board with some of the young pieces that if you're
74:52looking at this on a multi-year level. I'm not I still have some hope about what this core can be for the
74:58Steelers and just with a different quarterback and just a different plan offensively.
75:02I think that's necessary. Like Derek said, I mean, if you're going to have moments like the Bengals game where there's a
75:08few schemed up shots off play action where they're wide open and he's willing to throw them.
75:12I think that coupled with the run game, there's a path there.
75:16I just don't know how willing they are to explore that path for the Colts.
75:20That young core stuff is there's not the same sort of optimism like you don't have two first round picks from the last couple years.
75:27You know, you didn't have one last year. You don't have one next year.
75:30You're paying the quarterback over the next couple years that this the regime is like running into a dead end.
75:36Like it just it really does feel like every fear you could have about this turning the wrong way for the Colts
75:42and the bets you made just not coming up in your favor is already happening.
75:46And it's just going to leave the season feeling really lifeless.
75:49And this group understanding that we've run out of road and it's time to start over.
75:54And I don't even think it's too early to start framing their season that way.
75:58Well, when the expect when you need to reach the playoffs, like I'll say it again, both of these teams will probably have decent records.
76:05You know, I mean, the Steelers made the playoffs last year.
76:08The Colts I'm less sure about. Sure. OK, even if that's true, though, I just there's talent here to win games on
76:14a week to week basis, especially in the NFL, I guess is my point.
76:18But again, when the when the mandate is to reach the playoffs for the first time in forever and this is what
76:24we've seen through the first month, it's just it's hard to drum up much enthusiasm.
76:28Yeah. If I were a Colts fan, I'd be pretty bummed out right now.
76:32Like to come down from what the first half of last season looked like to what the current version of the offense
76:38looks like with with Jones playing this way with Pierce banged up.
76:41It's just we're living in a very different world for the Steelers.
76:44We're living in the same world. I guess I guess that's where I land with it for the Colts.
76:50We've transitioned to a different place that is sad for the Steelers.
76:53We're in a very similar place that is sad.
76:55I'm going to be watching Mike McCarthy like a hawk this week after he had to apologize for what he called Aaron Rodgers.
77:02Well, which, yeah, no apology necessary. Aaron Rodgers was FFing him in the huddle.
77:06No, I know it's it's great. Honestly, I wouldn't have it any other way.
77:09All right. Let's talk about what we want to know coming out of week five in the NFL.
77:14I'll start what I want to know coming out of Bears Packers.
77:18The Packers offense was functional last week against the Bucs.
77:20Like when they played against Atlanta and this happens where it's three weeks into the season.
77:25We don't know that much about any of these teams.
77:28The Falcons pass rush. Completely dismantled the Packers on Thursday night two weeks ago.
77:31They couldn't operate as an offense. Packers go out.
77:34They get Lagan Tomlinson. But beyond the improvements on the offensive line, and it sounds like Kevin Zeitler is going to start
77:40for them this week at right guard. Not playing against the Falcons.
77:43We didn't know the Falcons had the best pass rush in the league, apparently.
77:47And so last week with no new piece on the offensive line going against a different opponent.
77:52The points weren't there because they shot themselves in the foot a couple times.
77:56Drops on third down. Fumble on the goal line.
77:58But the offense could function again. And so what does that look like a week later?
78:03Are we back in a place where you're getting enough pass protection where this isn't going to be a team that is
78:09just trying to keep itself from drowning over the course of the year?
78:12I still have questions about the ceiling of this group and just what the Packers are going to look like over the course of the entire season.
78:20But I think another week where you at least have a foundation you can stand on offensively that you showed last week, that's what I'm paying attention to.
78:27Like, where does the Packers offense land? Is it closer to the group we saw a week ago against the Bucs?
78:33Or are we still having some of the same concerns that we had against the Falcons two weeks ago?
78:38And I think that this is a defense where, relatively, it's not a pass rush that you're worried about.
78:44Dennis Allen will throw good pressures and stuff at you.
78:46But I do think that this, if they're trying to not have to face what the Falcons have been, what the Vikings
78:52have been, like not having to face that style of defense and that good of a pass rush, I do think that they have a chance to live.
79:00I think this is also like, this is a really good opportunity for, Matthew Golden has shown some flashes the last few weeks.
79:06And I do think that if they really want to get things going, I think that they're going to have to get him unlocked, probably down the field.
79:14Dave, one thing, or what do you want to know coming out of week five in the NFL?
79:19I want to know if the Minnesota Vikings can show me anything on offense in about as advantageous a situation as you could ask for.
79:26And I know Justin Jefferson's health is iffy, we'll see.
79:29Obviously, it would be a big help for them if he can play.
79:32But after what we saw Atlanta do to the Saints, Saints are 31st in the league in offensive DVO or excuse me, defensive DVOA.
79:39After what we've seen from the Saints, I just need the Vikings to do anything on offense.
79:44If I am going to believe that this 4-0 record, which we hope is a 5-0 record for them, is remotely worth trusting.
79:50Some history I wanted to look through. Minnesota scored 86 points through four games.
79:54It's the fewest by a 4-0 team since the 0-9 Broncos, who conveniently enough started 6-0 and finished 8-8.
79:59That Denver team was like top five in defensive DVOA.
80:02They were like 20th in offensive DVOA. It gave out over a long enough period of time.
80:06It usually does. It usually does. So I went back and looked at a few more.
80:11Arizona also started 4-0 despite a very low point total.
80:14They were last in offensive DVOA in 2012. Fifth in defense, last in offense.
80:17They started 4-0. Do you know what their final record was?
80:215-11. Oh, man. So it can go real, real bad for you if you don't have something on offense, no matter how good your defense is.
80:28And one more, if you're a Vikings fan looking for hope.
80:31The 0-6 Ravens. Best defense in the league by DVOA.
80:33Started 4-0. Went 13-3. Their offense was 14th. It doesn't need to be great.
80:37I need more than what you've shown. So that's what I'm watching in this game.
80:41Like, what does Kyler Murray look like? They're playing in a dome.
80:45We're not worried about the weather. Show me anything.
80:47Score a touchdown. That's what I want to know.
80:50Can you score a touchdown against the second-horse defense in the league?
80:53Before the fourth quarter. Derek, what do you want to know coming out of week five?
80:57Titans, Texans. I just want to know if the Titans will push the ball down the field.
81:02Because it's the only way the Texans have lost any of their games this year.
81:06It's by teams beating them over the head with some of their explosive passes.
81:10But this is a Titans offense that 6.6 of their throws this season go beyond 20 yards.
81:15It is the second lowest in the league. I think only the Colts are below them.
81:19The Colts beat the Texans. But the Colts, if there's anything their passing offense can do, it's worked that intermediate 11-20 yard area.
81:26I'm not sure the Titans do that as well as the Colts do either.
81:29And so I just think that this is going to have to be a game where they prove to me that they
81:35can really push the ball down the field. They've been a good pass protection unit.
81:40This is a really tough test to see if that's real or not.
81:43And so I just think that this is going to have to be a, you guys really need to push the ball down the field.
81:50And more than we've really seen from Cam Ward over the last like 12 games, let alone just this season.
81:56All right. That's all we've got for the week five preview.
81:59If you're listening to this on the podcast feed, the Thursday night football recap should be available.
82:03Bucks, Cowboys. If you're watching this on YouTube, it should also be available.
82:07I don't know why I made a distinction between those two things.
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