0:00Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 2 Preview Podcast and thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:08Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:11Two-point conversion to tie the game with 101 to go.
0:14The Eagles did not care about the Commander's run game at all.
0:17They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
0:20And the Eagles stop them! When you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
0:26The offensive line. My goodness, Will McDonald burying Cam Ward.
0:29I think running backs have been devalued, erroneously even.
0:32Erroneous on all accounts. On every account! 60-yard run by Ken Walker III!
0:36It's time for Week 2. We're going to tackle all the game previews you guys have been begging us to get to
0:42for days on end, which is good, because now at least somebody's going to be tackling something.
0:48Rushy Rice! Breaking tackles on the near side! Touchdown!
0:50We're sitting here talking about, oh, abolish the preseason.
0:53Preseason games don't matter. Let's just cancel the preseason and go straight to the regular season.
0:58The lack of execution, the lack of physical football, the lack of good teams that were ready to play in Week 1 and fell flat.
1:05Dude, I think that tells us the exact opposite.
1:08The missed tackle rate was the highest that it has been in 7 years.
1:1214.8% missed tackle rate across the NFL in Week 1.
1:15That shows me that we didn't play enough football in August.
1:19That these guys weren't exactly ready for the physicality of the regular season.
1:23And man, it was eye-opening to watch, especially in that Monday night football game with the Broncos.
1:28And, you know, practice habits have changed. And we used to have two-a-days back in the day.
1:33I'm not advocating for going back to two-a-days, you know, in like 100-degree heat.
1:37Back in my day! But, like, guys did tackle better in September.
1:41At least it felt like it. So I don't know what the solution is here.
1:45I'm sure there's a way to fix this issue.
1:48I don't know what it is yet. I am not an elite football coach.
1:52But clearly, like, tackling donuts aren't cutting it right now.
1:55The way that you get better at playing football is by playing football.
1:59And there's a physical part of it that goes into it.
2:03And we're going to tackle a lot of league trends as the year goes on.
2:07But honestly, this is the biggest league trend after Week 1, in my opinion, is just the sheer number of teams that
2:14weren't ready for the physical demands of playing a regular season football game.
2:18I've got some more NGS stats here for the people.
2:2161 explosive plays after missed tackles allowed in Week 1.
2:24Last year it was 36. 36 to 61? That is a league trend.
2:28That is something that I am very, very curious to see what the numbers look like Week 2 versus Week 1.
2:34Right? I mean, are these coaches just absolutely getting into these players?
2:38Are these players like, Okay, I thought I knew what it was going to take to perform the way that I know
2:44I can perform in Week 1 and it clearly was not there.
2:48How quickly can we solve this? Is it a flip of the switch?
2:52Is it going to take a little bit of time because these guys didn't play nearly as much as the preseason?
2:58So, another number. 17.7% of all scrimmage yards in Week 1 came after a missed tackle.
3:03That's the highest share of any opening week since 2018.
3:06So, again, we're breaking records. This is a trend in the worst way.
3:10And I just think that, man, the missed tackle stuff, it was an epidemic in Week 1.
3:15And it feels like it's such a simple thing, right?
3:18Like, this whole game, this entire sport is just blocking and tackling.
3:22It's one of the oldest platitudes in football. It's just blocking and tackling.
3:26And if you can't do half of that, then what are you as a defense?
3:30Like, it was just disgusting. Every defensive coach on planet Earth hated watching football this week.
3:35And that's probably a good segue, by the way, to talk about Broncos-Jags because these two teams are coming in from complete opposite experiences in Week 1.
3:43And of all the teams that couldn't tackle in Week 1, Denver was by far the worst.
3:49Nine months after ACL surgery, Patrick Mahomes runs it in from 15 yards out!
3:53Yeah, historically bad rate here for the Denver Broncos.
3:56And I remember we were texting in the show group chat, and you and I were kind of like, wow, like 23% missed tackle rate.
4:03We were kind of pointing that out to each other because we said, there's no way it goes up, right?
4:09And the fourth quarter happened. Dude, that was when it was like 22%, 23%.
4:13And I could see the tweets now. The tweets would have been, at one point, the Broncos were missing 22% or 23%
4:20of a tackle rate throughout the game. No, it got worse.
4:23It absolutely did not get better. The Broncos had a 29.8% missed tackle rate against the Kansas City Chiefs.
4:29248 missed tackle yards allowed. That rate was the highest in the league in a single game since Week 3 of 2023,
4:36when the Broncos also had a 29.9% missed tackle rate.
4:39Not ideal. And that was the most such yards given up from missed tackles since 2018.
4:44Travis Kelsey inside the 20. Down to the 5.
4:46So, yeah, I mean, it was terrible. And you mentioned as a good segue going into this game because the Jags offense, man, it looked fast.
4:54It looked confident. Liam Cohen had these boys ready.
4:57They put their foot on the gas pedal, and they did not let up until, you know, you got well into the fourth quarter of that game.
5:05Okay, let's break down the absurdity of this Trevor Lawrence touchdown here.
5:09So we're setting things up, and we see that we've got one running back in the backfield.
5:14We've got two tight ends on the line of scrimmage.
5:17So we have 12 personnel total. That's what we're talking about here.
5:21So 12 personnel here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And when you look at things from the defensive side of things, it looks like could be cover one.
5:29You've got one single high safety right here, and you've got a handful of these defenders that are sort of right in
5:35front of where these receiving options would be. But when we start this play, we'll motion this wide receiver in.
5:41Once we get to a condensed set, yes, this defender did travel with this wide receiver, but then he backed up.
5:48He didn't get into a press coverage look. So it tells you, okay, we're more likely looking at cover three here and not a cover one set.
5:56Now, it's in the red zone, so everything kind of plays like man eventually because anytime a guy gets in a zone,
6:03you're probably playing him in some sort of man principle.
6:06So you know you're going to get some sort of man coverage type of look somewhere, and you do get that on
6:12this side of the field right here, but it just does not matter to Trevor Lawrence.
6:17Okay, here's a little quick play action, and he already knows where he is going to go with the ball, which is
6:24absolutely absurd because there's no separation here from the wide receiver.
6:27The safety was already creeping in this direction. You have this zone defender, this zone defender, and yet Trevor Lawrence goes, nope, right here.
6:34I see the throwing window. I'm absolutely making this happen, and I want you guys to remember, this is the first quarter.
6:41They're only up 7-0. It's not like this game is 30-0, and it's way out of hand, and Trevor Lawrence just says to himself, nah, I don't care.
6:50This doesn't really matter. He's going for this absurd throw because at the beginning of the game, there was a sound bite
6:56from him, and he said, hey, we should not feel pressure at all in this game.
7:01We should be the ones applying the pressure. We shouldn't feel on our heels at all.
7:06This is the definition of that. Look how he rips this throw in there.
7:10That is absolutely absurd to not just see that potential throwing window, but actually have the guts to throw the ball and then the talent to complete it.
7:19Unbelievable stuff, and we had to give you another angle because here at NFL Pro, you know, yeah, we got flexed.
7:25We've got all the angles that we can show you guys.
7:28This is the perfect angle here when you get to see all of these defenders, so I'm going to let this play start a little bit here.
7:37You're going to see the quick play action from him, and then right when Lawrence sets up.
7:42This is his point of view here. This wide receiver is barely, I mean, he's barely open right now.
7:47You can anticipate, hey, he's got the break. He's got the inside leverage.
7:51He's going to have a little bit of room, but this safety is looking at him the entire time.
7:57This underneath defender could absolutely get in the throwing window.
8:00Depending on where Lawrence releases this ball, that zone defender could be a factor here as well, and the fact of the
8:07matter is, it just simply did not matter. Look at where that ball is.
8:11You cannot see the wide receiver. You can only see four Cleveland Brown defenders.
8:15You can see the football, and that wide receiver is totally behind the coverage.
8:20Again, this is Trevor Lawrence's point of view here.
8:22It's an unbelievable throw, and to be honest with you, we are all this guy.
8:27We are all this guy right here after watching the absurdity of that passing touchdown for Trevor Lawrence.
8:32The good news for Denver is that the Jags offense is like the polar opposite of what Kansas City did to them in week one.
8:40If you're looking at yak percentage, right, so the total number of passing yards, the total percentage of passing yards that was
8:46after the catch, Kansas City easily, you know, and obviously number one across the league in week one, the Jags were the lowest.
8:53They were very much a downfield passing game, like no yards after catch required.
8:58They were getting them all through the air, and so I'm curious to see if that's actually a better matchup for Denver
9:04because if they did one thing well, it was not really allowing Kansas City to even go vertical.
9:10They tried one time, and it resulted in a miscommunication and an interception by Mahomes that wasn't really on Mahomes, but maybe
9:16that's the saving grace for Denver here is that they're not really going up against a team like even last year that was good at yards after catch.
9:25Jacksonville had the sixth lowest yak percentage in all of 2025, so this wasn't just like a one-week thing, but even then,
9:32I don't know how any Broncos fan can look at what happened in week one and feel any sort of confidence right now.
9:39Like, that was just ugly. Yeah, I mean, it has to be night and day.
9:43I don't really think there's any way around it.
9:46There's no like, all right, well, if we tweak this little thing here and there, I think that we'll be okay.
9:52I mean, it just has to look completely different.
9:55I am very curious to see if the Jags can sort of change it up a little bit here, right?
10:01Like, do they throw the ball a little bit shorter?
10:04Do they lean on yards after catch a little bit more?
10:07Because I think if there's been a critique of Trevor Lawrence that the highs have been phenomenal for him when they've been
10:14there, but can he within a game change himself or change what they want to do?
10:19And I think Cohen's a great coach, and he's going to be able to sort of have that at his disposal.
10:25But can Trevor execute? Can you go from one game plan one week to something maybe completely different to try to take
10:32advantage of the weaknesses of a defense out there?
10:35And also, you know, the Broncos defense does play different structurally than the one they faced against Cleveland.
10:40About 70% of every single coverage call by the Browns last week was either cover three or cover one, and the majority of those were cover three.
10:48It kind of looked, you know, earmuffs, Jax fans, kind of looked like a Gus Bradley defense a little bit.
10:54A lot of cover three. And whenever it was cover three, they just tore apart the linebackers.
10:59When it was cover one, they tore apart the corners.
11:02Like, nobody could cover in man in this game.
11:05It was really disgusting. But Trevor was so dialed in against these single high structures, and it just felt like Cleveland didn't have an answer.
11:13I'm really interested to see if Denver kind of leans more into that.
11:17Not even cover two, more like quarter, quarter, half kind of lifestyle here.
11:21You know, take away that deep ball down the boundary, and then you have Sertan backside just being Pat Sertan.
11:27Again, structurally, a little bit of a different defense here for Jacksonville.
11:30That's why this matchup fascinates me so much is because it's such a slingshot between styles that they're facing from week one to week two.
11:38And, you know, to kind of mix metaphors here, styles make fights in the NFL.
11:42For sure. Yeah. I do want to touch on the other side of things when the Broncos offense goes up against the
11:49Jags defense because I went back and I watched all of Jalen Waddle's snaps and routes from this game, and I was like, okay, what happened here?
11:57Like, could they just not get him the ball?
12:00Were they really honed in on him? Honestly, Brett, my number one takeaway was just Steve Spagnuolo.
12:05Masterclass. Genuinely. A masterclass from the defensive coordinator because I noticed early on that the Broncos wanted to use Jalen Waddle as
12:12a decoy to get a lot of other people open.
12:15They wanted to see how the Kansas City Chiefs defense was going to focus in on him.
12:20The very first play was orbit motion with Jalen Waddle.
12:23It's like, okay, let's see. How are they going to adjust?
12:26How are they going to focus on him? Obviously, the touchdown that they had at the front pylon, that was also from
12:33a Jalen Waddle out of the backfield type route, which, by the way, anybody who watched NFL Pro, you watched that happen live.
12:40You saw Jalen Waddle out of the backfield, and even though he didn't get the ball, his presence out of the backfield
12:47is a big reason why that was a touchdown.
12:49So that's why you watch the show, people. Make sure you subscribe.
12:53But when I watched him be like this decoy, the Chiefs just had the perfect defense for it.
12:58They played so much two deep and three deep coverage in this game.
13:02They said, okay, sure. You want to throw it deep?
13:05We got the numbers for it. We got the bodies for it.
13:09And if you want to throw it underneath, because that's sort of the give and take, right?
13:14All right. We're going to put more bodies in the deep portion of the field.
13:19Well, that means there's less to cover the underneath.
13:21That means that you're probably going to give up throws and completions underneath, which then requires what?
13:27Rallying and tackling. Okay. 8.7% missed tackle percentage as a team, despite the fact that Bonix had 20 passes of 10 or less air yards.
13:34LeJarius Sneed, he is back. He's the perfect player for this defense.
13:38He had four solo stops himself. I watched Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton rally to the ball and be so reliable.
13:44These underneath zone defenders were so ready to do their job when those short passes ended up coming.
13:50Okay. You can't hit anything deep. Sure. The underneath stuff is open, but it's not going anywhere.
13:55Now, all of a sudden, the Chiefs are up 10.
13:58Now, all of a sudden, Chiefs are up three scores.
14:01Now, what do we do? Now, we've got to force it.
14:04And that's, I think, why you see the Bonix panic plays.
14:07Intercepted by the rookie, Delane. Real quick, I think the question that Jags fans have is, do the Jags and Anthony Campanelli
14:14have this recipe to sort of do the same thing and frustrate Knicks the same way?
14:19I mean, that was their calling card last year, right?
14:22Campanelli, he has both a Vic Fangio heritage and a Jeff Halfley heritage kind of mixed together.
14:27And I think if you're looking at the specific matchup between the Broncos and Campanelli's defense in Jacksonville, they're probably going to
14:34see a lot of the same stuff this week that they saw last week, specifically with, we're going to build that umbrella
14:40over the top, rally and tackle on anything underneath.
14:43We're going to try to use rotations. We're going to try to use disguise, anything to slow down his clock so that
14:50our great pass rushers can get there. The one key difference, and this is what I'm really fascinated by, if you're looking
14:56at the changeup that Spags had in week one, it wasn't just that aggressive man coverage, it was man coverage paired with pressure.
15:0350% of all the Chiefs' man coverage calls had six plus rushers attached to it.
15:08It wasn't just, we're rushing five, we're rushing six with man coverage.
15:12And when you have receivers, not getting attacked, but let's say scuffed up a little bit.
15:16You play a little physical. A little physical? You can't kill him just out of the yards for free.
15:22Ain't nobody gets anything for free I'll work for in this league.
15:26Was it a penalty? Who's going to say? Didn't get called, not a penalty.
15:30I will say though, with those tight windows from man coverage paired with pressure, and it sped up Nix's clock so much,
15:37and Nix with a sped up clock isn't necessarily going to be able to make the tight window throws that are required to beat tight man coverage.
15:45And we saw that over and over and over in this game.
15:49At one point in the fourth quarter, he was averaging like three yards per attempt against man.
15:54And that was largely because those man coverages were paired with pressure.
15:57Campanelli doesn't really do that in Jacksonville. Like not only do they not call a lot of man, they also don't call
16:04a lot of six man pressures with man coverage.
16:07So that's part of the reason why I'm so interested in this matchup is a lot of the stuff that really tore Denver to pieces last week.
16:15The Jags don't necessarily do it on either side of the ball.
16:18That ball is caught! The fourth touchdown pass of the day for Trevor Lawrence!
16:23How good is that? So let's stay with the Chiefs because the Chiefs also play the Colts and we want to talk about this game here.
16:31Specifically, the Colts defensive side of things. It's something that I'm worried about here, Brett, because I think that they're trying to play a defense.
16:38I think Lou Anarumo is trying to play a defense that fits one of his players, but not most of his players on defense.
16:45And that is how often they play man coverage.
16:48So they played man on more than 50% of their snaps in week one.
16:52Obviously, it didn't work well versus the Baltimore Ravens, but you could take things back a little bit further because since the
16:59Sauce Gardner trade, they have the fifth highest man coverage rate in the NFL, 35.2%.
17:04That's a plus 6.7% man coverage rate before and after the Sauce Gardner trade.
17:08When you look at this past game, Sauce allowed one catch for 12 yards in man coverage.
17:13Brett, the rest of the team, eight catches for 180 yards.
17:16For me, this defense, I'm worried about it because it just feels like they're trying to play a coverage that fits one player.
17:23They're a prized player, but it doesn't really fit the other guys that are on the team.
17:28And defense, man, it's so much about all 11 guys working together and playing well.
17:33So I'm worried about this team on defense, especially for a Kansas City Chiefs offense that knows how to attack man coverage like that.
17:40And one of the things that Declan Doyle did in that game that I think was super underrated was he was using
17:47motions and formations not just to dictate that man coverage in a sense, but also to identify it, to confirm that that that dictation worked.
17:54What I mean by that is they had a 67.2% shift in motion rate, which is a good way to see if
18:01they're in man coverage, if somebody's going to be moving across the formation, is their defender following them?
18:07Usually means it's going to be man. They had a 37% nub rate, which was third highest in week one.
18:13And a significant chunk of that was six offensive line looks, right?
18:16Getting that jumbo tackle on the field. And what they were doing a lot was either they were putting a tight end
18:23in a nub to one side and then three receivers to the other side, or they were putting that jumbo tackle to
18:30one side and three receivers to the other side.
18:32Because you had snaps, like there was one, it was a first down to Mark Andrews, where you had the jumbo tackle
18:39on the field and Sauce was lined up on him.
18:42So obviously it's zone because Sauce isn't going to cover an offensive tackle in man coverage.
18:47I mean, he would. Preference wise. I mean, he could.
18:50Yeah, probably. Yeah, right. But, you know, he was using formations and basically being like, either you match it with corners and
18:57tell us you're in man, or you match it with, you know, a safety or a linebacker or whatever.
19:02And you tell us you're in zone and then we just know exactly what you're doing.
19:07Like that was half the reason that 54 yard catch and run touchdown, they had Justice Hill lined up out wide with a corner on him.
19:15Well, now we know it's zone and we're pretty sure it's going to be a fire zone.
19:20And it was. And Lamar gave like a brilliant little pump fake to get the safety to jump into lane and threw it around him.
19:28So they caught it, ran for the touchdown. Like just all the formation and motion stuff they did to them.
19:34They made it not just hard on them to disguise.
19:37They made it impossible to disguise what they were doing.
19:40Now let's, let's talk Chiefs offense because we got to have the Kenneth Walker conversation.
19:44You and I in the season preview, we highlighted Kenneth Walker and how much of a difference maker he could be on this team.
19:52Well, early returns say pretty dang good. Walker the third.
19:55A backfield presence that this team hasn't had since Priest Holmes.
19:58Wow, Jamal Charles erasure. Oh my God. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:01You're sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That is Jamal Charles erasure.
20:05I was excited to get a Priest Holmes shout out here in the show.
20:09Jarek McKinnon erasure too. But let's talk about Kenneth Walker.
20:12Let's talk about running back value because he gets paid coming over from the Seattle Seahawks.
20:17Anytime a running back gets paid, it's always like, ooh, I don't know about that.
20:21Even if they're really talented. Well, we saw their returns on the field, but just overall, let's have the value conversation about
20:28running backs here, especially coming off a great performance from one who just got paid.
20:32So if you go back to 2015, a little over a decade ago, if you take the average of the top 10
20:39contracts at running back at that time, and the average of the top 10 contracts among edges at that time, and you
20:46look at the percentage of the salary cap that those averages came out to, the difference between running back and edge was about a percent.
20:53The average of the top 10 running back contracts took up 10.04% of the salary cap.
20:58The average of the top 10 edge contracts took up about 11.17% of the salary cap.
21:03Quarterback, meanwhile, about 15.35%, which was already up significantly from a decade before that, right, when Peyton Manning signed his big deal.
21:10Fast forward to 2026, running back has steadily decreased as far as the percentage of the cap that the average of the top 10 contracts is taking up.
21:18Now it's at 7.47%. Edge has climbed up to 16.6%.
21:21So you're adding more than 5% to the average of top edge contracts.
21:25You're taking away about 2.5% from the average of running back contracts.
21:29Quarterback has gone up to 21.25%. So they're just taking more and more and more.
21:33And I look at it as, you know, not that running backs are being properly valued now.
21:38I think running backs have been devalued. Erroneously, even, at the expense of other...
21:43Erroneous on all accounts. On every account. But all these other positions have just taken money from these running backs.
21:49Yeah, right. And then you see these offenses that have highly paid quarterbacks and highly paid receivers and they can't move the ball.
21:56And it's because they're consistently in third and long because they can't run the ball.
22:00You're just kind of lighting money on fire when you do that because you have all of, you know, this massive percentage
22:07of your salary cap, let's say in the Bengals case, in quarterback and two receivers, if they were the worst run game
22:14in the league and they were consistently in third and eight because they couldn't run the ball, if you're looking league-wide at
22:20third down conversion percentages, third and one to three, league-wide average conversion is 60%.
22:24That's pretty damn good. League-wide average conversion on third and four to six to go is 43.7%.
22:30Still pretty good. Once you get to third and seven to 10, drops like a rock down to 31.3%.
22:3511 plus is 14.5%. So when you're bringing in a running back that can raise the ceiling of your running game, even
22:42by like a yard per carry and you're a good early down run team and you can get to more third and
22:49four and six rather than third and seven to 10, naturally, your third down conversion rate is going to go up, which
22:55means your offense is staying on the field, which means you're getting more value out of the rest of your offense just
23:02by paying a running back 7.5% of your salary cap.
23:05Like it is the most undervalued position in the sport right now.
23:09It's been devalued wrongly, erroneously. And we're starting to see these offenses realize that.
23:13You bring in Kenneth Walker, who's raising the ceiling of your running game.
23:17Pat Mahomes started the night, what, like two of 12?
23:20But it didn't matter because you had a running back that could still keep you on schedule and break off explosives by himself.
23:27Baltimore brought in Derek Henry, elevated their run game.
23:30The Niners traded a bunch of picks for CMC.
23:32You think they regret that? No. The Texans traded for Dave Montgomery.
23:36They had a good short yardage game for the first time in like years in week one.
23:41So don't tell me running backs don't matter. You have to pay them.
23:45Not anybody can do this. And the fact that we were gaslit and thinking like, oh yeah, Alfred Morris is the same as Adrian Peterson.
23:53No, he's not. All respect to Alfred Morris. It's not the same.
23:56But that's always been the conversation. The ones that are worth it are worth it.
24:01To like oversimplify everything into one sentence, you have to find the running backs that individually can elevate the offense.
24:07Because there's a lot of running games where most of the success is credit to the offensive line and how potent the
24:13passing game is and how easy things can be at the line of scrimmage.
24:18But when you get a back like Kenneth Walker, who led week one with 14 missed tackles and 114 missed tackle yards, that is that super valuable.
24:26Because wherever you force a missed tackle, you're bringing individual value to a play.
24:30It's independent of your offensive line. It's why when I look at scouting, there's so many backs who rush for a crap
24:37ton of yards when they're in college. But the ones that become great pros are the ones who, whether it's behind the
24:43line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, beyond the line of scrimmage, if you are making guys miss and if you
24:50are getting yards after contact, that is you. That is individual value.
24:54And that's when you really start to elevate an offense.
24:57And that is why Kenneth Walker was worth it for the Kansas City Chiefs.
25:01And that's why he's going to be a focal point again in a game against the Colts who struggled to contain Derrick Henry.
25:08It doesn't get any easier this week now that you're facing Kenneth Walker coming off that performance on Monday night.
25:14Also, one note to look at with these Colts linebackers.
25:17Second round pick, C.J. Allen, no snaps. Bryce Betcher, fourth round pick, 30% of the snaps.
25:22Not sure why yet, but something to keep an eye on.
25:25Interesting. Interesting. Eagles-Titans. Eagles come away with a win against the Washington Commanders, but didn't exactly look like the Eagles of old.
25:32And I think specifically, Brett, the offensive line. The heart and soul, the true identity of why the Eagles have been so good.
25:39It's been in both trenches. And that O-line did not look the same in Philadelphia against Washington.
25:44Landon Dickerson, he just went on IR. And it was bad.
25:47He needed to go on IR. He can't play right now.
25:51He can't move right now. But it wasn't even just him.
25:54The entire Eagles offensive line wasn't good. They allowed a 36.4% pressure rate.
25:58That was 12 highest, but really the worst numbers were in the run game.
26:02Right? Saquon got the vast majority of his yards after contact because he needed to.
26:07Right? You took out the one long run that he had in that game.
26:11The rest of his day was 14 carries for 41 yards.
26:14He was getting nothing done. And when you take away that kind of run game easy button from the Eagles, no matter
26:21who their offensive coordinator is, when you take that away, Jalen just has to play on hard mode.
26:26And credit to him, by the way, he did that.
26:29Like, he made several excellent plays to bail him out of trouble in that game.
26:34He had five scrambles for 48 yards, third most across all of week one, most in a game for him since week one of last year.
26:429.6 yards per carry on those scrambles. Like, he was damn near getting a first down every time he took off.
26:48There was a third and 18 late in the game that he converted, just taking it upon his back.
26:54Be like, I gotta get us this first down.
26:57It's a one-point game. We're late in this thing.
26:59We gotta go. And he did it. This was the Jalen Hurts put the team on your back kind of game.
27:06And, you know, credit to him for doing it.
27:08Not a whole lot else worked with this offense because of the offensive line.
27:13But if Jalen can do that until they get this offensive line sorted, maybe Dickerson comes off IR.
27:18Until that, if Jalen can keep playing like this, they have a shot.
27:22But, boy, the difficulty level is just off the charts for him right now.
27:26On the other side of things, I want to talk about the Titans offense.
27:31Because there was a lot of hype for, you know, the new coaching staff.
27:35Brian Dable being with Cam Ward. Obviously, you draft Carnell Tate number four overall.
27:39But really tough first day. Cam Ward was 19 for 32.
27:42140 passing yards. Had a touchdown. No interceptions. QB rating of just 80.
27:46Completion percentage below 60% here in this game. Ultimately, though, I just felt as though Cam still looked hesitant.
27:52And people want the yearly jump, like the year one to year two jump.
27:56But for Cam, there were the good moments, but then there were the hesitant moments.
28:01And it was still a mixed bag. And there were all sorts of inconsistencies with Cam Ward.
28:06To me, there's just so much going on in his head.
28:09He's not being able to play super free. And I've kind of got to get something off of my chest here, Brett.
28:16I don't understand why we weren't talking about the Titans drafting an offensive lineman at number four overall.
28:21They draft Carnell Tate and everybody goes, and myself included, I go, okay, look, is Tate a good fit for the next
28:28step for Cam Ward and what this offense is going to be as a legitimate vertical threat?
28:33To me, that was putting the cart before the horse.
28:36To me, that was eating dessert before you're eating your vegetables.
28:40Because when you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
28:44To me, the offensive line. This offensive line had the ninth highest pressure rate in 2025 at a 37.1%.
28:50And in week one, oh look, 41.0% pressure rate, eighth highest in the NFL.
28:54So they're bottom 10 offensive line all of last year.
28:57They were a bottom 10 offensive line in week one.
29:00And this is the thing that baffled me the most, Brett.
29:04They played 10 or 11 personnel on 85% of their snaps.
29:07They played more snaps in empty at the snap than any team in the NFL this week.
29:12You know what happened when they ran those snaps?
29:15Either extremely quick throws or pressures and sacks and terrible plays.
29:18You don't have the offensive line to run 10 and 11 personnel.
29:22You want to know why the air raid and the spread offense works in college and it doesn't in the NFL?
29:28Offensive line. Because a lot of times, the best offenses in college football, the talent gap is so wide, you can play
29:35five-man protections and the other team doesn't have what it takes to cover you and get pressure the way that you need to.
29:42When the Tennessee Titans went empty or when they were trying to spread the field with four wide receivers, five receiving options, you know what the Jets did?
29:50They got home. They blitzed. So for me, philosophically with this Titans offense, I'm worried.
29:55Because what Cam Ward did really well when he was at Washington State, when he was at Incarnate Word as well, and
30:01then certainly when he was at Miami, is it was a lot of spread offense stuff.
30:06He wants to be in the shotgun. He wants to have multiple receivers that he could go to.
30:12You can only do that if you have the offensive line to protect him.
30:16And if you don't, it's going to end badly.
30:19And especially because they don't really have a blocking tight end on the roster to help them out here.
30:24Like they signed Daniel Bellinger. Daniel Bellinger played 14 snaps for them this past game.
30:29So is he really going to be a presence where all of a sudden you're playing him on the offensive line?
30:35He's really helping out. And he's in there for chip locks and everything.
30:39Because then you've got to take a receiver off the field.
30:43And I don't know how much they want to do that.
30:46I'll tell you what. This game is going to be great for fans of excellent defensive tackles beating the crap out of bad offensive lines.
30:53Because we talked about the interior of the Eagles offensive line being bad.
30:57Well, Jeff Simmons is coming to town. Good luck.
31:00One play at a time. Stay in the moment.
31:03You're looking at the platoon of defensive tackles that the Eagles are bringing with them.
31:07Right? You're looking at Carter. You're looking at Davis.
31:10Moro Jomo was sensational against the Commanders. Like he's the one who made the play on that two-point stop.
31:16He was reading a pole key. And then, you know, the back block kind of came in from his right side.
31:22He just spun off of it, wrapped around the center and made the play all by himself.
31:27Like these Eagles defensive tackles are no joke. And they made the Commanders offensive line look awful.
31:32Moro Jomo with the big play. And the Eagles make the stand they needed.
31:37Which is probably a good segue into talking about Commanders Cowboys.
31:40Because I don't know what Washington can do to help out Jaden Daniels.
31:44Like their offensive line might be the worst one that we're going to talk about today.
31:49And that is a low bar. Yeah, so they do bring Campbell.
31:52There's a five-man rush at the top of the screen.
31:55And they're just late on the kick out there, Coleman.
31:58And as a quarterback, you're feeling that pressure all day.
32:02That's speeding up your internal clock. So I was looking into the numbers and obviously I saw that the offensive line didn't play great.
32:09But I always like to sort of dive a little bit deeper, right?
32:13Jaden was holding onto the ball for a long time.
32:163.41 time to throw. I feel like he just didn't, you know, really trust the game as it was coming to him.
32:22There was one play in particular that I watched where he had all of his receivers to one side.
32:28And he had so much green grass to just run and scramble.
32:32And he didn't take it because I just think there's this overall hesitancy with him behind that offensive line.
32:383.2 average separation at the throw for the receivers and a 14.7 tight window throws in week one.
32:43They're not great. They're like bottom 10, 12 in the NFL last week.
32:47But it's not like it was dead last. It's not like it was horrendous or anything like that.
32:52The main takeaway though, Brett, is yeah, the offensive line didn't play well.
32:56But specifically, the Eagles did not care about the commander's run game at all.
33:01They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
33:04And there were multiple times where I'm watching Jaden Daniels drop back and even when there's play action involved, even when there's
33:10some misdirection, even when they have a threat to run the ball out of the backfield, the Eagles were like, dad, don't care.
33:17We'll drop seven. We'll drop eight. If you want to run the ball, go ahead, try.
33:22We don't respect your run game. But I wonder how much other teams, like will the Cowboys and will teams moving forward
33:29not respect the commander's run game until they really prove that they have to.
33:33If you don't have a run game or a run threat, it makes it so much easier for teams to really cover you.
33:40And that was actually what ended up being my main takeaway for the commanders is they got to run the ball better.
33:47And, you know, failing that, if you can't get through the Cowboys defensive line, you should at least be able to go around the Cowboys defensive line.
33:55We saw the Giants do that brilliantly in week one, just hammering the flats over and over and over again.
34:01Chris Collinsworth was like apoplectic during the broadcast about it.
34:04He's like, how are you guys not covering this?
34:07And we actually had some really good sound from Shadi after that game because he was so frustrated.
34:12One of the things, not an excuse, guys. We did not play well.
34:16We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route.
34:19Excuse my language. You know, those are, those are going to happen.
34:23So clearly Shadi none too please there. And I believe I found the exact play that he was referring to.
34:29This was down in the red zone. It's a second and very long.
34:33And the Cowboys are in a coverage here that the Fangio world calls cover nine.
34:37Why do they call it cover nine instead of cover three?
34:41I'm not entirely sure. I bet there's a reason that goes back 40 years.
34:45I just don't know what that reason is, but they call it cover nine.
34:49It's basically just a three deep zone, four underneath.
34:52Very similar to, to what we're all used to here.
34:55But there is a little adjustment that they call a sight call in the Fangio world where if the running back is
35:02what's known as fast to the flat, meaning he's not just doing a little like, you know, check release here.
35:08He's not giving a chip and then leaking out.
35:10Like if he is immediately releasing to the flat, then it's the safety's responsibility to push to the flat and take that away.
35:17If the running back is slow to the flat, then it's the linebacker.
35:21And so because this running back was fast to the flat, you actually see the safety, you know, point to him like
35:28he's expecting the linebacker to go with him. But if you're playing this sight call here, it's actually the safety's responsibility.
35:34He realizes it way too late. Running back, it's an easy catch and run, sets up a third and very short.
35:41And then they scored very soon after that, again, in the flats.
35:44Entirely different coverage. This one actually was on Barham.
35:47He should have been pushing to the flat there and just lollygagged through it.
35:51But you can see why Schottenheimer was so frustrated and why I'm sure Christian Parker was super frustrated is because the Eagles
35:58cover this 10 times out of 10 because they understand that the running back's release is going to change the responsibility between the linebacker and the safety.
36:06The Cowboys are still brand new at this. It's a very new system for them.
36:11You have players, especially Barham, who is a rookie.
36:13It's his first ever game. I do believe they will get this corrected.
36:17Even the Eagles, you know, when Fangio first started consulting with them, they were kind of out of sorts at first when they started running all this stuff.
36:26That was years ago at this point. But I have to believe that a mistake this minor is going to be fixed in very short order.
36:34It probably already has been in the meetings that they've had since this game.
36:38But I just wanted to explain why Shadi was so beside himself because this is just like cover 9-101 and they failed in their first game.
36:46You could tell he was very frustrated but he was trying to bite his tongue a little bit.
36:51You know, this is a humbling business. We got humbled tonight.
36:55I think it's a reminder for everybody, myself included, as somebody who loves the draft and, you know, when these rookies get
37:01selected to these teams, you can't wait to see them out there and playing.
37:05It takes time. It really does take time for these guys to be able to do everything that they need to do.
37:12We have to coach the young players better but when you play young players, it's part of the deal and they need to learn quickly.
37:20We got to talk about the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams really for two extremely different reasons, right?
37:26The Giants are coming off what I think we on this show have to call the biggest upset that we had last
37:33week because we picked the Cowboys as our 10 confidence game last week when we were doing our game picks and we
37:39thought that the Cowboys were going to win that game.
37:42Obviously, the New York Giants end up winning this game but they're traveling to LA now cross-country to take on a Rams
37:49team that are to look worse honestly, just given everything that the Rams were.
37:53I mean, Stafford had a negative 0.52 EPA per play on his dropbacks versus San Francisco in week one.
37:59That was his worst in a single game since 2016.
38:02Nothing was working for the Rams not only just to the Super Bowl standard that everybody has for them just from going
38:09out there week one and kind of doing your thing making sure that you're putting your best foot forward it was not there for them.
38:16So, we're going to talk about both of these teams pretty well but what do you think about the Giants coming off
38:23of that big win now facing the Rams what's sort of the area that you want to preview here for this one?
38:30It was a perfect plan right? Nagy and Roman together apparently a double negative makes a positive I guess but maybe they
38:36just needed each other all along I'm sorry I'm sorry I've been traumatized by both of them too Veterans Veterans Veteran coaching
38:43staff Brett I will call it that knowledge wisdom but it worked again I'm being kind of a dick about it but
38:50it worked like they had a really good plan and the fact that their entire plan was hey let's not go backwards
38:56that was effective it's seven possessions in this game in the last two quarters they had what 22 and a half minutes
39:03time of possession out of 30 like it was suffocating so it was a great plan by them the run game wasn't
39:10particularly explosive but it was effective they had one of the highest success rates across the NFL while also having one of
39:16the lowest stuff rates across the NFL and if you're just consistently getting four four and a half yards over and over
39:23and over again well you do that three times in a row you got a first down then you do that four
39:30times in a row you're in the red zone and on the opening drive of the season the people have spoken and
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43:03perfectly executed ball control game plan I thought Jackson Dart was awesome in this game didn't have to make the Josh Allen
43:09type of throws but did make the throws that he was supposed to make and was on point was accurate was in
43:16rhythm all the platitudes we love to talk about they were just really really effective and they took advantage of a Cowboys
43:23defense in their first game in a new system that wasn't pushing to the flat three times in four plays we don't
43:29push three different times to the fucking flat route excuse my language and I'll tell you what if it's not broke don't
43:36fix it I thought the Giants obviously did a great job of managing the game the way that they needed to and
43:43not shooting themselves in the foot right and if there's a critique that I had of Jackson Dart when he was coming
43:49out Ole Miss it was it was sure I recognized the great plays but I felt like there were too many plays
43:56where he was hurting the offense or certainly hurting himself and his cause to move the ball down the field and it
44:03looked like a lot more methodical so I loved the sort of progression of even what Jackson Dart was able to do
44:09if you want to call it an easy day at the office fine but he helped make it an easy day at
44:16the office on the Ram side of things I do think that the pendulum has to swing back in the other direction
44:23there's a lot of things that could have gone wrong here for the Rams we talked at the very top of the
44:29show of just the epidemic that was missed tackles and missed execution with week one and we sort of related it to
44:36maybe lack of preseason reps being a reason why the Rams don't play any of their starters in the preseason it's just
44:43not the McVay way and you tie that into I'm trying not to be too hindsight with this but I always kind
44:49of felt like a very strange travel plan for them when did they get out here oh dang going all the way
44:56across the world to play this game and not adjusting the body clocks at all whatsoever I mean this team did not
45:03look physically or mentally sharp for this game and I have to feel is that within a much more regular environment for
45:09them it doesn't look nearly as bad as it did in week one but the area I'm most curious to see what
45:16is different in week two from week one when it comes to Los Angeles Rams is how they play defense specifically how
45:23they covered you trade for Trent McDuffie you sign Jalen Watson these guys are our man coverage type of defenders Trent McDuffie
45:29played 25.7% of his coverage in man in week one fourth lowest single game rate of his career like he's a man
45:36coverage type of corner or certainly was when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs they just didn't ask him to do
45:43that I mean he's played man on 43.5% of his coverage snaps since entering the league in 2022 that's the ninth highest
45:49amongst all defensive backs with over a thousand coverage snaps during that span so I feel as though they acquire these man
45:56coverage defenders and they played it some they played it 19% but they really didn't play it much and it goes back
46:03to is this a little bit like the Colts conversation that we had earlier are you not playing your players to their
46:09strengths as a defense as a whole now I think there are some things that you could look at with this game
46:16with context that could tell you that things might look different in week two one Shanahan does do a lot of motion
46:23stuff and when you play man like you referenced earlier in the show you kind of give away that you're playing man
46:29when there's all this motion and Brock Purdy gets a better look at what the defense is going to be post snap
46:36if you if you have that sort of reaction to guys who are in motion when they're in man coverage there's a
46:43little bit of that but I will say this Mike Evans was a man coverage neutralizer in that game I went back
46:49and I watched the man coverage reps that they tried to play in that game and a lot of times Mike Evans
46:56was in the slot for that they couldn't handle it no matter who was playing in the slot they did not have
47:02the answers for Mike Evans when they were playing in man coverage so do the Giants have their version of Mike Evans
47:09is it Malik neighbors is it Malachi Fields is it Isaiah likely do they have that version of Mike Evans to attack
47:16them from sort of that big strong slot type of a wide receiver archetype I'm very curious so I think that Stafford
47:22will bounce back the Rams offensive line was still moving people off the ball in the power run game I think those
47:29things will be consistent but what does the defense look like I'm not really worried about it without Miles Garrett to be
47:36honest with you I'm not the defensive line was already oh no they have three other good pass rushers what are they
47:42gonna do that's the thing we the whole the whole point of conversation was they added Miles Garrett to this defense well
47:49guess what now they still have this defense right so it's still that defense but what does the coverage look like and
47:56how different is it from week one very curious to see what that looks like for the Ram I will say Francis
48:02Malinoa no pressures allowed on 36 pass blocking snaps going up against Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk super intriguing matchup and you
48:09also brought up Malachi Fields I'm gonna take my opportunity do you watch him as a run blocker oh I watched him
48:16as a run blocker when he was at Notre Dame too so he's a he's a new father shout out to Malachi
48:22he's a new father and immediately got dad strength because oh my god he was burying people I thought you were saying
48:29that because he sunned people in the run game I thought yeah he just picked up a bunch of extra kids in
48:36week one we got one more game ball his first victory is New York Johnson okay we're wrapping up the show here
48:42getting to you guys the people because you guys have been unbelievable since we started this show since we first announced that
48:49we were doing it you guys have been such a big part of all the topics that we put together we tried
48:56to you know take so many of your suggestions and we asked for questions here at the end of the show and
49:02Brett I think that once again we got like 250 responses so you guys are so involved and we want to get
49:09you guys as involved as possible we might even have to do our own separate Q&A show at some point but we
49:16love you guys thank you so much for wanting to get in the show we really appreciate it we will answer a
49:22couple here to round us out real Chris Yonke as the first one and I think it's one that a lot of
49:29people want to know the answer to which outcomes in week one are liars and which ones are you buying I am
49:36buying Brett the Ravens buying their dominance I'm buying the new offense with Declan Doyle how much they were able to just
49:42move the ball at will against the Indianapolis Colts I'm buying them being a great team I'm buying the Bears and I'm
49:49buying the Bears good and bad I'm buying that the Bears are gonna score a crap ton of points this year and
49:56I'm also buying the fact that they are indeed going to give up a lot of points this year so scoring 59
50:02I don't know if they're gonna score 59 every week but scoring a lot of points every week but also giving up
50:09a good amount of yards and points every week it makes the Bears much watch TV every single week no matter what
50:16and I'm also buying the Cincinnati Bengals and specifically with the Cincinnati Bengals I am buying how much better they are in
50:22both trenches we talked about this in the season preview show and it absolutely showed up week one that offensive line looked
50:29great Amarius Mims looked like a future all-pro Dexter Lawrence presence was well worth it in the middle of that defense and
50:36the new speed additions they have on the edge look beautiful so I'm buying those three teams the Ravens the Bears and
50:42the Bengals what teams are you buying from week one I'm a little bit more hesitant both ways so I have fewer
50:49that I I'm like more definitive on but I will say I'm buying the Chiefs because this is what they look like
50:56when they have a real run game and the passing game wasn't even good and they were still up by like three
51:02scores in the second half is crazy so I'm buying the Chiefs I'm buying that defense I'm buying the run game and
51:09I'm buying the 49ers because they're healthy for now and I always feel good about you know believing in the 49ers when
51:16they have at least 80 percent of their guys which they do as far as liars minor like positives compliments I guess
51:22even I think the Bucks again coward your your Tampa whoa well I'm being nice to you well I didn't know you
51:29oh yeah well I didn't know you're gonna say the Bucks now you're not yeah you know you're a man of integrity
51:36now you're a man who just tells the truth you know when nobody else will now yeah now I love it vision
51:42how often are they gonna turn the ball over four times in a game I mean I mean hopefully once I think
51:49they're gonna be fine they got within six points even with four turnovers they're gonna be fine and then as for the
51:56panic button about you know Reuben Bain dude Amarius Mims is gonna do that to a lot of people this year I
52:02agree people need to to understand how good Amarius Mims not just could be but is now like Cappy learned how to
52:09putt he's awesome and then I also have the Texans as liars in a positive way they're not gonna give up 36
52:16points to very many people Josh Allen is one of I don't know four quarterbacks on planet earth that I think could
52:22do that to them as far as the insane throws that he made to put up those points I think they're gonna
52:29be fine you know the success rate that they allowed against Buffalo was totally normal so Houston and honestly if I'm a
52:36Texans fan well I am a Texans fan I'm coming out of that loss as positively as I possibly can I'm treating
52:42it like you know an SEC team losing to Alabama in the mid 2010s they put up yards they were good in
52:49the red zone it's like that's a quality loss right there yeah I think that my liars I'm more pointing out sort
52:55of their opponent like I think the Jets overall are liars because I think the Titans were terrible so I don't know
53:02if it's gonna look that good for them moving forward we shall see I think the same thing about the Giants the
53:09Cowboys just played a horrendous game so I thought the Giants were great I'm not so sure it's gonna look that good
53:15every single week I'm not trying to take everything away from the Giants like we talked about in the preview but I
53:22don't think it's gonna look quite like that every single week and then the Rams so interestingly I have two teams on
53:29this list that play each other this week with the Rams and the Giants the Giants I don't know if it's gonna
53:35look as good as it looked in week one the Rams it cannot look as bad as it looked in week one
53:42so we'll actually get to see what the result of that is so there we go that's our first question our second
53:49question this one's from Mike Cash and I think a lot of people are wanting to know the answer to this one
53:55the Jets rolled out a 0-5 personnel on Sunday sure why not with five tight ends on the field has the love
54:02of tight ends gone too far Brett how do we feel about this one in fact I had one of our analyst
54:09guys see has this been has this happened before because I'm I was thinking maybe there wasn't and that's not why we
54:15did it it was just we got five good tight ends so he went back to he went back 20 years and
54:22he couldn't find any evidence of 0-5 personnel so I like it for those tight ends I'm still hesitant to call it
54:290-5 personnel because like technically one of them was a fullback so if we're counting that as more of like a running
54:35back than a tight like maybe it's 14 but like the most hilarious 14 personnel group you've ever seen well it ended
54:42up being was it was it was it 0-5 personnel or because technically they were set up in I don't even know
54:49what to call like a jumbo pony package because it was like 19 running back 20s and then yeah it was and
54:55then they pre-snap they moved into what was actually I think more of a 14 personnel and alert for future weeks on
55:02that Kenyon Sadiq was in the backfield they could give him a kid he runs 4-4 give him a carry he got
55:09a carry in this game I think and it wasn't even that play did he but I think he did get a
55:15carry in that game yeah I think we're gonna see more of that I think they just wanted to see how defenses
55:22responded to it honestly so it was open I should note that it was open Mason Taylor like the throw was there
55:29for the touchdown Gino didn't take it but like the play worked it did work it absolutely worked so in 2025 it
55:35was the highest rate of two tight end sets on average more so than any other year in the NGS era at
55:4233.2% and week one par for the course league average of 33% so we were right there with that heavy tight end
55:49usage has it gone too far no of course not no no it can't go far enough can't go far what about
55:55what about 0-6 personnel take one of the offensive linemen off the field get another tight end in there Jackson Hawes baby
56:02he's a tackle he's a tackle 315 and you never do you never know what's gonna happen you never know what's gonna
56:09happen when he's on the field it's time for our game picks a little bit of a confidence flare here for week
56:15two we had a lot of fun doing this for the first time in week one so what we're doing is we're
56:22picking our 10 favorite games all right we're not only picking the game but then we're also picking a spot of how
56:29much confidence we have we're keeping score we're getting points for hey if we call this game and they're our most confident
56:35game we're getting more points or if they're released confident game getting a little bit less so what we're gonna do is
56:42we're gonna keep score throughout the entire year and Brett I do have your score from last week I know you have
56:49mine we have not revealed this to each other yet so you didn't get your 10 spot game you pick the Cowboys
56:55winning against the Giants which so did I so you didn't get your top points there with the 10 points you missed
57:02that game and then you missed your least confident game and then your second least confidence game so you did pretty good
57:09here last week you got 42 total points when it came to picking the correct team that won the game and then
57:15also where you had them in the confidence but uh did I do better that's the question because you have you have
57:22my final score in the envelope how did I do last week so your score starts with a four okay great good
57:29start it ends with a zero baby let's go week one in the books okay all right calm down calm down it's
57:35one week it is one week but what we're gonna do is we're going to keep a tally and score so Brett
57:42is up two points on me right now we're not like restarting with every single week so he is up two so
57:49if he's up to this week and let's say you get eight points next week then you're gonna be up 10 points
57:55on me on the season so we're gonna keep a score and it's gonna be cumulative that way because if one of
58:02us gets way ahead on the scoreboard and we get to like week 17 week 18 it could be a lot of
58:09fun because one of us has to make some strong cases for some teams that might not win so it's it's a
58:15way where we're gonna have fun here picking these games previewing these games but also the confidence meter I think throws a
58:22lot of fun so if you guys want to follow along and participate on your own at home feel free to do
58:29so fire them off in the comment section we'll take a look at it we'll go back and forth and talk with
58:35you guys about your picks but Brett the first game that we're talking about is Thursday night football let's get into it
58:42here Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills who do you have winning and where is it in the
58:48confidence meter for you I have bills over Lions for one okay it is my confidence level of one okay okay it's
58:55a Thursday game weird stuff happens on Thursdays I think the Lions are a genuinely good team now you're opening a new
59:02stadium I think there's gonna be a ton of juice in the building but just looking at all the firepower the Lions
59:08have this is kind of a tough matchup for anybody to have even though the Lions did have to scratch and claw
59:15and fight to beat New Orleans last week this is just the kind of game that could really go sideways and so
59:22while I do think the Bills are gonna win just because Josh Allen is an absolute superhuman and he's one of the
59:28only quarterbacks who I think could have beat the Texans last week I'm not super confident either way so I'm leaving it
59:35at my one spot yeah understandable I think you might be smart having them at the one given it it's Thursday night
59:42football it's two really good teams I also had the Bills winning but I have this in my four spot so a
59:48little bit higher than you on the rankings a little bit more confident than the Bills and simply put I think you
59:55guys are gonna hear a theme from my game picks when the good quarterbacks are playing good right out of the gate
60:02it's hard for me to bet against them Josh Allen was unbelievable against the Houston Texans you and I talked about this
60:08in the reaction show we highlighted how much the Detroit Lions kind of want to play man coverage and man if there's
60:15somebody with some arm arrogance to really go after when you're not playing well in man coverage it's Josh Allen so I
60:22agree you know I think the juice can be flowing you're opening up the new stadium give me the Bills in this
60:28one and give me them at the four spot Saints at Ravens the next game we're talking about here we got winning
60:35this one and where is it in the ranking I'm actually way more confident this one I went Baltimore over New Orleans
60:42and it's because if you look at what Tyler Shuck did last week again all credit to him for that late game
60:48comeback you know got three touchdowns against all that man coverage from the Lions in the red zone but they really didn't
60:55start playing man until they got to the red zone and I look at what Baltimore does defensively with Jesse Minter he
61:02not only calls a lot of zone coverage he calls a lot of like very it's a tricky zone coverage a lot
61:08of rotations a lot of I'm showing you this I'm giving you this and shock really struggled against that in the first
61:15half that was actually something he also struggled as a rookie against and I just I look at a very potent offense
61:22it's going to put pressure on you to score and a defense that likes to use a lot of disguise a lot
61:28of really kind of fancy exotic pressure looks I'm not super confident in shock to be able to sort that out I
61:35like the Saints talent it's just this might be a game that they win next year not necessarily this year so I
61:42put that at my seventh spot I'm a little higher than you on it picking the same team but I had the
61:48Ravens winning in there at the nine spot for me the nine spot feels disrespectful given Tyler Shuck hater how Tyler Shuck
61:55in this team played in the fourth quarter and overtime but I echo everything that you just said there Tyler Shuck really
62:02struggled and I think just the chemistry with the wide receivers the timing the everything was just a little off in that
62:08first half and that was heavy zone coverage stuff Jesse Minter is great at it they understand when Tyler Shuck was playing
62:15well and I think they're gonna do everything that they can to sort of not allow him to really be able to
62:22read the field and just say all right that guy's in man it's just about me putting the ball where it needs
62:28to go in tight windows and he's got the arm talent to do it but when you really got to continuously think
62:35I think that's when he was a little slow and a little hesitant to get rid of the ball Vikings at Bears
62:42the Bears coming off 59 points on the road in Carolina the Vikings hell of a comeback themselves it's Flores it's it's
62:48it's Ben Johnson what do we think here who you got winning this game so Chicago scored 59 in a game Minnesota
62:55scored 22 and a quarter so this game is almost impossible to figure out how it's gonna go especially because Flores and
63:02Ben Johnson have a deep history against one another Johnson historically has been one of the only offensive minds that really does
63:08a whole lot of anything against Flores I am picking the Bears in this game I am not super confident in it
63:15just because you know NFC North shenanigans tend to happen especially early in the season and when these two coordinators get together
63:22they're always throwing haymakers against each other they they do tend to get the best of each other it's a tough game
63:28to pick I'm gonna go Bears just because I'm not 100% certain who's gonna be starting for the Vikings at quarterback as
63:35of recording this we don't know and man 59 points it'd be kind of weird to see them put up that many
63:42points in week one and then pick against them in week two where do you have them in the rank two spot
63:48not okay man so so we're getting the low we're getting the low confidence games out of the way early for you
63:55again I am picking the same team I'm just a lot more confident and so you know it's it this is gonna
64:02be very interesting if these teams win or lose because we're picking the same teams we're just very different in the confidence
64:08meter I have the Bears winning at my seven spot I have a lot of faith in what that offense showed us
64:15in week one how Caleb looked how the ground game looked it was incredible and yes the Vikings moved the ball really
64:22well and had an incredible comeback I'm not trying to take anything away from him Packers defense was rough and more than
64:28that they really struggled to hold on to possession at all whatsoever when it came to that second half so even though
64:35I have my questions on Chicago's defense as well coming off giving up 37 points to the Carolina Panthers I don't think
64:41there's going to be this lack of possession this lack of time of possession this consistency that existed with Green Bay when
64:48they faced off against Minnesota last week and I think that was a major catalyst for why Minnesota was able to come
64:55back and look as good as they did in the second half because Green Bay just I mean they couldn't hold on
65:01to the football there was no possession for them at all whatsoever no efficiency and I just don't think that's going to
65:08be the case with Chicago's the Cincinnati Bengals coming off a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to Houston to take
65:15on a Texans team that ain't used to giving up 30 plus points and so you know they're going to be extremely
65:21motivated but you know the Bengals starting off the season really hot and they normally don't do that so you know they
65:28want to keep the momentum rolling who you got winning this game so this is in my four spot okay I'm taking
65:35the Texans all right I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these two teams are right because the Bengals suddenly have
65:41a real defense right they have a real pass rush which helps out and the Texans suddenly have a real offense so
65:48it's two very evenly matched teams and the fact that Houston starting out their season with you know Josh Allen and Joe
65:55Burrow it's about as difficult to start to a schedule as you can have last week the Texans bills was at my
66:01one spot because I really wasn't sure who was going to win and the game came down to the wire I think
66:08this one's also going to come down to the wire I do think the Texans are going to get the better of
66:15them just because I don't expect their defense to give up 36 again Joe Burrow is capable of many things there's a
66:21couple throws that Josh Allen made in that game that I'm not even sure if Joe could have done those so I'm
66:28gonna go Houston I'm only confident the four spot but I do think they win I'll go opposite side of the coin
66:35here we'll differ for the first time on this show in week two I'm gonna go Cincinnati Bengals but I have them
66:41in the one spot when it comes to confidence because I really don't know who is gonna come on somebody's gotta be
66:48in the one you were just saving that for no matter what but I think this game is gonna be really really
66:55tight and I'm taking the Bengals simply because I was really impressed with how they were on the trenches both offensively and
67:01defensively when you can play the way that you did with that with Jamar Chase 12 total receiving yards you know that
67:08that's probably not gonna happen again so you're gonna get Jamar involved a little bit more I'll ride the momentum here for
67:15the Cincinnati Bengals and I'll have them winning this game but I just have them at that one spot Jags and the
67:21Broncos two totally different week one performances the Jags just blew out the Cleveland Browns in a game that was never close
67:28and then the Broncos laying an egg on Monday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs what do we think about this
67:35game here preseason they tell you that hey this is a premier game of week two and I think that it absolutely
67:41could be but who do you have winning and where are they in the confidence meter I am picking the Jaguars in
67:48this game but I do think it's gonna be a tougher fight you know we looked at how much Bo Nix struggled
67:55against man coverage against KC well the Jags don't really play a lot of man coverage they do tend to favor zone
68:01Anthony Campanelli you know he comes from both both a Fangio and a Jeff Halfley influence at the same time so he
68:08calls a lot of quarters I think on paper theoretically in a vacuum Bo Nix should be better against the Jack this
68:15Jaguar style of defense I am worried about it so I only have it in my sixth spot but I do think
68:21that you know if you look at just the difference between how Trevor is playing right now versus how Bo is playing
68:28right now and it is a quarterback league I Trevor's one of the early candidates for MVP after you know one week
68:35of play but he was absolutely unassailable last week I'm picking the Jags as well I only have them at my two
68:41spot where did you have them in your rankings six okay you've got the Jags at your sixth spot I have them
68:48in the two spot this is a game where it's it's hard to have concrete takeaways one way or the other because
68:55yes Jacksonville was great but they were playing what might be the worst team in the NFL this year the Broncos look
69:01terrible against the Chiefs but you kind of say to yourself my goodness a lot of the issues that they had were
69:08on the defensive side of the ball is that defense really gonna look that bad the entire year I mean where they
69:15were one of the best in the NFL they gave up the most yards after a missed tackle in NGS's database history
69:21which goes back to 2018 so it can't be that bad again right Seahawks and the Cardinals a little interesting game a
69:28little closer than some people maybe thought was going to be the case with the Cardinals coming off that win against the
69:35Chargers but this one's in Arizona what do you think about this one and where are you putting in your confidence rankings
69:41give me the Seahawks okay go with Drew Locke even even with a backup quarterback I look at not just the talent
69:48on the Seahawks team but also the coaching staff I think it's a tremendous coaching staff I am fascinated to see if
69:55Jacoby Perset gets away with with doing it again as far as the amount of shotgun that they were in against against
70:01the Chargers and also just the average time to throw like he had the second highest quick throw percentage across the league
70:08in week one only uh second to Joe Burrow who got it out basically instantaneously against Tampa and I'm not sure if
70:15the Seahawks are gonna let them do that again if the Cardinals start out 2-0 tip of the cap to you true
70:21I'm putting it at the three spot not super confident but I have it at the exact same spot we're getting a
70:28lot of my low confidence games out of the way here early I also have them in the three spot I have
70:34the Seahawks winning I love what I saw from the Cardinals they looked fearless they looked ready for that game they didn't
70:41look like oh this is a team that could be picking number one overall next year they say screw that you know
70:48they certainly went into this game went on the road in SoFi and we're not afraid of the Chargers at all whatsoever
70:54and we're the aggressors in that game and so I don't think they're just going to be backing down from the Seahawks
71:01just because of the reigning Super Bowl champs they're going to come out and give it their best all that to say
71:08at Seahawks defense is special man I think it's still going to get after them I think that's going to be the
71:14x factor here give me a little closer obviously with no Sam Darnold in this game and you know with the run
71:21game not being as efficient or as explosive as when they had Kenneth Walker back there but I'm still going to Seahawks
71:28here and you mentioned if the Cardinals can come out of this game be 2-0 holy cow we're going to be spending
71:34some time breaking down and talking about how this team had one of the best surprise starts of any team in the
71:41NFL so we will see Colts at the Chiefs Chiefs obviously feeling good coming off that Monday night win Colts man really
71:48reeling from um felt like a blowout against the Baltimore Ravens there what do you think about this game who you picking
71:54and where is it in the conference meter boy I was confident in the Colts you know during the summer because as
72:01soon as we heard Daniel Jones is going to be back early I was like okay well I'm looking at what that
72:08offense did in the first half of last season and they just laid an egg to the point where I was not
72:14just deeply concerned about how they matched up against Baltimore I'm deeply concerned about how they match up they called so much
72:21man coverage in week one but couldn't play man coverage right their corners even gave like the corners are supposed to be
72:28the thing they hang their hat on in that defense they gave up a lot of yards in man coverage so if
72:34they can't do that defensively I don't feel great about how they match up against Kansas City who have all sorts of
72:41ways to just break guys open in man coverage not necessarily by being good route runners I'm talking like formation wise and
72:48using motions and then defensively I think Kansas City's defense played so well and I have real real concerns about how the
72:54Colts are going to come out against that so give me the Chiefs in this game I'm putting it basically dead in
73:01the middle at five but based on what we saw in week one I don't know if I could justify picking Indianapolis
73:08I got the Chiefs at the eighth spot here I'm pretty confident in this one because if the Chiefs can look the
73:14way that they did with Patrick Mahomes not completing a single pass beyond 10 air yards sky is pretty much the limit
73:21at that point I think the first and foremost is the are the Colts going to be able to stop the run
73:28game with Kenneth Walker and then if you are okay well now you've got to deal with like you mentioned Andy Reid
73:34who's very very good at dialing up these man beaters type of play concepts and he's got a great quarterback when it
73:41comes to timing and overall arm strength to be able to hit these fast receivers to get them the ball I think
73:48the Colts are still going to be able to run the ball well just like they did against the Ravens but what
73:54else outside of that that's my question with the Colts what are you outside of what we thought you kind of already
74:01were can you be anything above and beyond that Steelers at Patriots how do we feel about this game who's winning this
74:08one I put this at my eighth spot okay for who New England over Pittsburgh okay all right okay all right really
74:14bad picks in the second half I get it Drake May that was the worst game of his career might be the
74:21worst game he's played even going back to college it was almost like sophomore level UNC Drake May McDonald started blitzing way
74:28more in the second half to try to get them into more second and longs third and longs and Drake was like
74:34I got to make a play I got to do something you're up 10 nothing no you don't right and that's a
74:41young quarterback trying to put the game in his hands when he really didn't have to and I think that was probably
74:48the best thing that could have happened to him in week one because he learned a lesson of course they lose AJ
74:54Brown in that game so there were some longer ramifications but he learned a lesson that he really needed to learn again
75:01and now he's going against a Steelers team that I don't know if anybody watched Steelers offense uh in week one not
75:08great so no still not still not super explosive defense is great I mean they were able to really get a ton
75:14of great pressure at least although they didn't play a single rep of man coverage at all so it'll be interesting to
75:21see if they just uh uh have a little bit more respect for what Drake May can do uh in that respect
75:28I'm taking the Patriots as well put them in my sixth spot I'll go Patriots over Steelers commanders of the Cowboys now
75:34hold on before you answer this if if I'm keeping score correctly at home you still have your nine and your 10
75:41spot open one of these two last games it's it's your most confident game and then your second most confident game where
75:48are the Cowboys at or sorry no it's the commanders at the Cowboys so this one's in Dallas where is that one
75:54for you that's my tenor you I have the Cowboys you're putting the Cowboys at the 10 spot again second time in
76:01a row you can't be wrong twice in a row Trev have you not learned I'm gonna be digging out of this
76:08hole till Christmas dude I'm I'm also picking the Cowboys by the way but they're the five spot for me so they're
76:14I'm picking the same team it's a little further down so if the commanders you get the upset here you might be
76:21in trouble my friend dude if the commanders get the upset I am hosed but it's okay if you just look at
76:28at a the Cowboys offense in week one they only had seven possessions they scored on four of them the offense was
76:34not the problem the defense was and some of the errors on defense I think are very correctable if you look at
76:41the commanders offense in week one they have structural issues that are not not really correctable like that yeah they just didn't
76:47have the talent up front they could not block Philly whatsoever I'm not confident in this commanders team whatsoever and while I
76:54do respect the hell out of them for coming back against the Eagles and almost tying it up they were down for
77:01a reason I'm with you and that's why I'm going with the Cowboys but it's it's gonna be worth monitoring very very
77:07closely a lot of mental errors and some reps where the effort wasn't as good as you wanted it to be from
77:14that Cowboys defense overall and you go okay hold on here if we get anything that's close to a repeat performance of
77:21those elements you start to get worried about Dallas but for now I'll think that hey those guys probably watched the tape
77:27said we do not want to put that out there ever again it's gonna look different I'm also taking the Cowboys but
77:34I got them at the five spot which means Rams and the Giants I've got it at the 10 spot most confident
77:41game you've got it at the nine spot your second most confident game here of course you're taking the Giants right I
77:47mean the Giants are on the roll you got to you got to be taking the Giants here right right right I'm
77:54backing you in a corner to make you pick the Giants here I'm a coward I can't do it I'm going to
78:01Rams dude I am too if this Rams team started out as like the heavy heavy heavy choice for everybody to win
78:07the Super Bowl and they start 0-2 that might be the story of the you know the first quarter of the season
78:14you have Matthew Stafford the reigning MVP you have Puka you have Devonta you have a run game that was really really
78:21effective last year and on the defensive line you still have Kobe and Byron and Brayden and you bring it in McDuffie
78:27and Watson I can't imagine this team lays that much of an egg again I thought it was the just a recipe
78:34for failure how they handled everything in week one and I think a lot of that naturally gets remedied in week two
78:41if the Giants win this game if the Rams start 0-2 boy that's going to be an interesting breakdown for us on
78:47the reaction show because I got the Rams at my 10 spot most confident game for them to bounce back and get
78:54this win you got up at the 9 spot all right that's all the time that we had here for uh for
79:01this show we love you guys thank you so much for all the questions there you you gave so many incredible questions
79:07that honestly like we we talked to the staffer like do we even need to just like have a separate show just
79:14for questions because we want to get you guys involved in the show as much as possible because we really really appreciate
79:21all the engagement all the love from you guys it makes this a lot of fun every single week thank you guys
79:27so much for watching if you guys want to see you know whether it's the film or the data or whatever it
79:34is we're using NFL Pro for all this stuff so uh that paired with NGS make sure you guys have a subscription
79:41to those things and um you can find a lot of this information out yourself but thank you for hanging out with
79:47us we appreciate it we will be back with you on Monday for our reaction show of everything that we're about to
79:54see here in week two we'll see you guys then