0:00Welcome to the NFL Fantasy Football Show and thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:07Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:10Two-point conversion to tie the game with 101 to go.
0:13The Eagles did not care about the Commander's run game at all.
0:17They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
0:20And the Eagles stop them! When you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
0:25The offensive line. My goodness, Will McDonald burying Cam Ward.
0:28I think running backs have been devalued, erroneously even.
0:31Erroneous on all accounts. On every account! 60-yard run by Ken Walker III!
0:35It's time for Week 2. We're going to tackle all the game previews you guys have been begging us to get to
0:41for days on end, which is good, because now at least somebody's going to be tackling something.
0:47Rushy Rice! Breaking tackles on the near side! Touchdown!
0:49We're sitting here talking about, oh, abolish the preseason.
0:52Preseason games don't matter. Let's just cancel the preseason and go straight to the regular season.
0:57The lack of execution, the lack of physical football, the lack of good teams that were ready to play in Week 1 and fell flat.
1:04Dude, I think that tells us the exact opposite.
1:07The missed tackle rate was the highest that it has been in seven years.
1:1114.8% missed tackle rate across the NFL in Week 1.
1:14That shows me that we didn't play enough football in August.
1:17That these guys weren't exactly ready for the physicality of the regular season.
1:21And man, it was eye-opening to watch, especially in that Monday night football game with the Broncos.
1:26And, you know, practice habits have changed and we used to have two-a-days back in the day.
1:32I'm not advocating for going back to two-a-days, you know, in like 100 degree heat.
1:36Back in my day! But, like, guys did tackle better in September.
1:40At least it felt like it. So, I don't know what the solution is here.
1:44I'm sure there's a way to fix this issue.
1:47I don't know what it is yet. I am not an elite football coach.
1:51But, clearly, like, tackling donuts aren't cutting it right now.
1:54The way that you get better at playing football is by playing football.
1:58And there's a physical part of it that goes into it.
2:01And we're going to tackle a lot of league trends as the year goes on.
2:06But, honestly, this is the biggest league trend after Week 1, in my opinion, is just the sheer number of teams that
2:12weren't ready for the physical demands of playing a regular season football game.
2:16I've got some more NGS stats here for the people.
2:1961 explosive plays after missed tackles allowed in Week 1.
2:22Last year was 36. 36 to 61? That is a league trend.
2:26That is something that I am very, very curious to see what the numbers look like Week 2 versus Week 1, right?
2:32I mean, are these coaches just absolutely getting into these players?
2:36Are these players like, OK, I thought I knew what it was going to take to perform the way that I know
2:42I can perform in Week 1, and it clearly was not there.
2:46How quickly can we solve this? Is it a flip of the switch?
2:50Is it going to take a little bit of time because these guys didn't play nearly as much as the preseason?
2:56So, another number, 17.7% of all scrimmage yards in Week 1 came after a missed tackle.
3:01That's the highest share of any opening week since 2018.
3:04So, again, we're breaking records. This is a trend in the worst way, and I just think that, man, the missed tackle
3:11stuff, it was an epidemic in Week 1. And it feels like it's such a simple thing, right?
3:16Like, this whole game, this entire sport is just blocking and tackling.
3:20It's one of the oldest platitudes in football. It's just blocking and tackling.
3:23And if you can't do half of that, then what are you as a defense?
3:28Like, it was just disgusting. Every defensive coach on planet Earth hated watching football this week.
3:33And that's probably a good segue, by the way, to talk about Broncos-Jags because these two teams are coming in from complete opposite experiences in Week 1.
3:41And of all the teams that couldn't tackle in Week 1, Denver was by far the worst.
3:46Nine months after ACL surgery, Patrick Mahomes runs it in from 15 yards out!
3:50Yeah, historically bad rate here for the Denver Broncos.
3:53And I remember we were texting in the show group chat, and you and I were kind of like, wow, like 23% missed tackle rate.
4:00And we were kind of pointing that out to each other because we said, there's no way it goes up, right?
4:07And the fourth quarter happened. Dude, that was when it was like 22%, 23%.
4:11And I could see the tweets now. The tweets would have been, at one point, the Broncos were missing 22% or 23%
4:17of a tackle rate throughout the game. No, it got worse.
4:21It absolutely did not get better. The Broncos had a 29.8% missed tackle rate against the Kansas City Chiefs.
4:26248 missed tackle yards allowed. That rate was the highest in the league in a single game since Week 3 of 2023,
4:33when the Broncos also had a 29.9% missed tackle rate.
4:36Not ideal. And that was the most such yards given up from missed tackles since 2018.
4:41Travis Kelsey! Inside the 20! Down to the 5!
4:44So, yeah, I mean, it was terrible. And you mentioned as a good segue going into this game, because the Jags offense, man, it looked fast.
4:51It looked confident. Liam Cohen had these boys ready.
4:54They put their foot on the gas pedal, and they did not let up until, you know, you got well into the fourth quarter of that game.
5:02Okay, let's break down the absurdity of this Trevor Lawrence touchdown here.
5:06So, we're setting things up, and we see that we've got one running back in the backfield.
5:11We've got two tight ends on the line of scrimmage.
5:14So, we have 12 personnel total. That's what we're talking about here.
5:18So, 12 personnel here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And when you look at things from the defensive side of things, it looks like it could be cover one.
5:26You've got one single high safety right here, and you've got a handful of these defenders that are sort of right in
5:33front of where these receiving options would be. But when we start this play, we'll motion this wide receiver in.
5:39Once we get to a condensed set, yes, this defender did travel with this wide receiver, but then he backed up.
5:45He didn't get into a press coverage look. So, it tells you, okay, we're more likely looking at cover three here and not a cover one set.
5:53Now, it's in the red zone, so everything kind of plays like man eventually because anytime a guy gets in a zone,
6:00you're probably playing him in some sort of man principle.
6:03So, you know you're going to get some sort of man coverage type of look somewhere, and you do get that on
6:09this side of the field right here, but it just does not matter to Trevor Lawrence.
6:14Okay, here's a little quick play action, and he already knows where he is going to go with the ball, which is
6:21absolutely absurd because there's no separation here from the wide receiver.
6:24The safety was already creeping in this direction. You have this zone defender, this zone defender, and yet Trevor Lawrence goes, nope, right here.
6:31I see the throwing window. I'm absolutely making this happen, and I want you guys to remember, this is the first quarter.
6:38They're only up 7-0. It's not like this game is 30-0 and it's way out of hand, and Trevor Lawrence just says to himself, nah, I don't care.
6:46This doesn't really matter. He's going for this absurd throw because at the beginning of the game, there was a sound bite
6:53from him, and he said, hey, we should not feel pressure at all in this game.
6:57We should be the ones applying the pressure. We shouldn't feel on our heels at all.
7:02This is the definition of that. Look how he rips this throw in there.
7:06That is absolutely absurd. To not just see that potential throwing window, but actually have the guts to throw the ball and then the talent to complete it.
7:15Unbelievable stuff. And, you know, we had to give you another angle because here at NFL Pro, you know, we got flexed.
7:21We've got all the angles that we can show you guys.
7:25This is the perfect angle here when you get to see all of these defenders.
7:29So I'm going to let this play start a little bit here.
7:33You're going to see the quick play action from him.
7:36And then right when Lawrence sets up, this is his point of view here.
7:40This wide receiver is barely, I mean, he's barely open right now.
7:44You can anticipate, hey, he's got the break. He's got the inside leverage.
7:48He's going to have a little bit of room.
7:50But this safety is looking at him the entire time.
7:53This underneath defender could absolutely get in the throwing window.
7:56Depending on where Lawrence releases this ball, that zone defender could be a factor here as well.
8:01And the fact of the matter is it just simply did not matter.
8:05Look at where that ball is. You cannot see the wide receiver.
8:09You can only see four Cleveland Brown defenders. You can see the football and that wide receiver is totally behind the coverage.
8:15Again, this is Trevor Lawrence's point of view here.
8:18It's an unbelievable throw. And to be honest with you, we are all this guy.
8:23We are all this guy right here after watching the absurdity of that passing touchdown for Trevor Lawrence.
8:28The good news for Denver is that the Jags offense is like the polar opposite of what Kansas City did to them in week one.
8:36If you're looking at yak percentage, right? It's the total number of passing yards, the total percentage of passing yards that was after the catch.
8:43Kansas City easily, you know, and obviously number one across the league in week one, the Jags were the lowest.
8:49They were very much a downfield passing game. Like no yards after catch required.
8:53They were getting them all through the air. And so I'm curious to see if that's actually a better matchup for Denver
9:00because if they did one thing well, it was not really allowing Kansas City to even go vertical.
9:05They tried one time and it resulted in a miscommunication and interception by Mahomes that wasn't really on Mahomes.
9:11But maybe that's the saving grace for Denver here is that they're not really going up against a team like even last
9:18year that was good at yards after catch. Jacksonville had the sixth lowest yak percentage in all of 2025.
9:23So this wasn't just like a one week thing.
9:26But even then, I don't know how any Broncos fan can look at what happened in week one and feel any sort of confidence right now.
9:34Like that was just ugly. Yeah, I mean, it has to be night and day.
9:38I don't really think there's any way around it.
9:41There's no like, all right, well, if we tweak this little thing here and there, I think that we'll be okay.
9:47I mean, it just has to look completely different.
9:50I am very curious to see if the Jags can sort of change it up a little bit here, right?
9:56Like, do they throw the ball a little bit shorter?
9:59Do they lean on yards after catch a little bit more?
10:02Because I think if there's been a critique of Trevor Lawrence, that the highs have been phenomenal for him when they've been there.
10:09But can he within a game change himself or change what they want to do?
10:14And I think Cohen's a great coach and he's going to be able to sort of have that at his disposal.
10:20But can Trevor execute? Can you go from one game plan one week to something maybe completely different to try to take
10:27advantage of the weaknesses of a defense out there?
10:29And also, you know, the Broncos defense does play different structurally than the one they faced against Cleveland.
10:35About 70% of every single coverage call by the Browns last week was either cover three or cover one.
10:40And the majority of those were cover three. It kind of looked, you know, earmuffs, Jags fans, kind of look like a Gus Bradley defense a little bit.
10:49A lot of cover three. And whenever it was cover three, they just tore apart the linebackers.
10:54When it was cover one, they tore apart the corners.
10:57Like nobody could cover in man in this game.
11:00It was really disgusting. But Trevor was so dialed in against these single high structures and it just felt like Cleveland didn't have an answer.
11:07I'm really interested to see if Denver kind of leans more into that.
11:11Not even cover two, more like quarter, quarter, half kind of lifestyle here.
11:15You know, take away that deep ball down the boundary.
11:18And then you have Sertan backside just being Pat Sertan.
11:21Again, structurally a little bit of a different defense here for Jacksonville.
11:25That's why this matchup fascinates me so much is because it's such a slingshot between styles that they're facing from week one to week two.
11:32And, you know, to kind of mix metaphors here, styles make fights in the NFL.
11:37For sure. Yeah. I do want to touch on the other side of things when the Broncos offense goes up against the Jags defense.
11:44Because I went back and I watched all of Jalen Waddle's snaps and routes from this game.
11:49And I was like, okay, what happened here? Like, could they just not get him the ball?
11:54Were they really honed in on him? Honestly, Brett, my number one takeaway was just Steve Spagnuolo.
11:59Masterclass. Genuinely. A masterclass from the defensive coordinator. Because I noticed early on that the Broncos wanted to use Jalen Waddle as
12:06a decoy to get a lot of other people open.
12:09They wanted to see how the Kansas City Chiefs defense was going to focus in on him.
12:14The very first play was orbit motion with Jalen Waddle.
12:17It's like, okay, let's see. How are they going to adjust?
12:20How are they going to focus on him? Obviously, the touchdown that they had at the front pylon, that was also from
12:27a Jalen Waddle out of the backfield type of route.
12:30Which, by the way, anybody who watched NFL Pro, you watched that happen live.
12:34You saw Jalen Waddle out of the backfield. And even though he didn't get the ball, his presence out of the backfield
12:40is a big reason why that was a touchdown.
12:43So, that's why you watch the show, people. Make sure you subscribe.
12:47But when I watched him be like this decoy, the Chiefs just had the perfect defense for it.
12:52They played so much two deep and three deep coverage in this game.
12:56They said, okay, sure. You want to throw it deep?
12:59We got the numbers for it. We got the bodies for it.
13:03And if you want to throw it underneath, because that's sort of the give and take, right?
13:08All right. We're going to put more bodies in the deep portion of the field.
13:12Well, that means there's less to cover the underneath.
13:15That means that you're probably going to give up throws and completions underneath, which then requires what?
13:20Rallying and tackling. Okay? 8.7% missed tackle percentage as a team, despite the fact that Bo Nix had 20 passes of 10 or less air yards.
13:28Legereus Sneed, he is back. He's the perfect player for this defense.
13:31He had four solo stops himself. I watched Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton rally to the ball and be so reliable.
13:38These underneath zone defenders were so ready to do their job when those short passes ended up coming.
13:43Okay. You can't hit anything deep. Sure. The underneath stuff is open, but it's not going anywhere.
13:48Now, all of a sudden the Chiefs are up 10.
13:51Now, all of a sudden Chiefs are up three scores.
13:54Now, what do we do? Now we've got to force it.
13:58And that's, I think why you see the Bo Nix panic plays.
14:01Intercepted by the rookie Delane. Real quick, I think the question that Jags fans have is, do the Jags and Anthony Campanelli
14:08have this recipe to sort of do the same thing and frustrate Nix the same way?
14:13I mean, that was their calling card last year, right?
14:16Campanelli, he has both a Vic Fangio heritage and a Jeff Halfley heritage kind of mixed together.
14:21And I think if you're looking at the specific matchup between the Broncos and Campanelli's defense in Jacksonville, they're probably going to
14:27see a lot of the same stuff this week that they saw last week, specifically with, we're going to build that umbrella
14:34over the top, rally and tackle and anything underneath.
14:37We're going to try to use rotations. We're going to try to use disguise, anything to slow down his clock so that
14:43our great pass rushers can get there. The one key difference, and this is what I'm really fascinated by.
14:49If you're looking at the changeup that Spags had in week one, it wasn't just that aggressive man coverage.
14:55It was man coverage paired with pressure. However, 50% of all the Chiefs man coverage calls had six plus rushers attached to it.
15:01It wasn't just we're rushing five, we're rushing six with man coverage.
15:05And when you have receivers not getting attacked, but let's say scuffed up a little bit.
15:10You play a little physical. A little physical. You can't let them just have the yards for free.
15:15Ain't nobody gets anything for free I work for in this league.
15:19Was it a penalty? Eh, who's going to say?
15:22You know, didn't get called. Not a penalty. I will say though, with those tight windows from man coverage paired with pressure
15:28and it sped up Nix's clock so much and Nix with a sped up clock isn't necessarily going to be able to
15:35make the tight window throws that are required to beat tight man coverage.
15:39And we saw that over and over and over in this game.
15:42At one point in the fourth quarter, he was averaging like three yards per attempt against man.
15:47And that was largely because those man coverage were paired with pressure.
15:51Campanelli doesn't really do that in Jacksonville. Like not only do they not call a lot of man, they also don't call
15:58a lot of six man pressures with man coverage.
16:00So that's part of the reason why I'm so interested in this matchup is a lot of the stuff that really tore Denver to pieces last week.
16:08The Jags don't necessarily do it on either side of the ball.
16:12That ball is caught! The fourth touchdown pass of the day for Trevor Lawrence!
16:16How good is that? So let's stay with the Chiefs because the Chiefs also play the Colts and we want to talk about this game here.
16:24Specifically the Colts defensive side of things. It's something that I'm worried about here, Brett, because I think that they're trying to play a defense.
16:32I think Lou Anarumo is trying to play a defense that fits one of his players, but not most of his players
16:38on defense and that is how often they play man coverage.
16:41So they played man on more than 50% of their snaps in week one.
16:46Obviously it didn't work well versus the Baltimore Ravens, but you could take things back a little bit further because since the
16:52Sauce Gardner trade, they have the fifth highest man coverage rate in the NFL, 35.2%.
16:57That's a plus 6.7% man coverage rate before and after the Sauce Gardner trade.
17:01When you look at this past game, Sauce allowed one catch for 12 yards in man coverage.
17:06Brett, the rest of the team, eight catches for 180 yards.
17:09For me, this defense, I'm worried about it because it just feels like they're trying to play a coverage that fits one player.
17:16They're a prized player, but it doesn't really fit the other guys that are on the team.
17:21And defense, man, it's so much about all 11 guys working together and playing well.
17:26So I'm worried about this team on defense, especially for a Kansas City Chiefs offense that knows how to attack man coverage like that.
17:33And one of the things that Declan Doyle did in that game that I think was super underrated was he was using
17:40motions and formations, not just to dictate that man coverage in a sense, but also to identify it, to confirm that that dictation worked.
17:47What I mean by that is they had a 67.2% shifted motion rate, which is a good way to see if they're
17:53in man coverage, if somebody's going to be moving across the formation, is their defender following them?
17:59Usually means it's going to be man. They had a 37% nub rate, which was third highest in week one.
18:05And a significant chunk of that was six offensive line looks, right?
18:08Getting that jumbo tackle on the field. And what they were doing a lot was either they were putting a tight end
18:15in a nub to one side and then three receivers to the other side, or they were putting that jumbo tackle to
18:21one side and three receivers to the other side, because you had snaps.
18:25Like there was one, it was a first down to Mark Andrews, where you had the jumbo tackle on the field and Sauce was lined up on him.
18:34So obviously it's zoned because Sauce isn't going to cover an offensive tackle in man coverage.
18:38I mean, he would preference wise. I mean, he could.
18:41Yeah, probably. Yeah, right. But, you know, he was using formations and basically being like, either you match it with corners and
18:48tell us you're a man or you match it with, you know, a safety or a linebacker or whatever.
18:54And you tell us you're in zone and then we just know exactly what you're doing.
18:59Like that was half the reason that 54 yard catch and run touchdown.
19:02They had Justice Hill lined up out wide with a corner on him.
19:06Well, now we know it's zoned and we're pretty sure it's going to be a fire zone.
19:11And it was. And Lamar gave like a brilliant little pump fake to get the safety to jump into lane and threw it around him.
19:19So they caught it, ran for the touchdown. Like just all the formation and motion stuff they did to them, they made
19:26it not just hard on them to disguise. They made it impossible to disguise what they were doing.
19:31Now let's talk Chiefs offense because we got to have the Kenneth Walker conversation.
19:35You and I in the season preview, we highlighted Kenneth Walker and how much of a difference maker he could be on this team.
19:42Well, early returns say pretty dang good. Walker III.
19:45A backfield presence that this team hasn't had since Priest Holmes.
19:48Wow. Jamal Charles erasure. Oh my God. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
19:52You're sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That is Jamal Charles erasure.
19:55I was excited to get a Priest Holmes shout out here in the show.
19:59Jarek McKinnon erasure too. But let's talk about Kenneth Walker.
20:02Let's talk about running back value because he gets paid coming over from the Seattle Seahawks.
20:07Anytime a running back gets paid, it's always like, ooh, I don't know about that.
20:11Even if they're really talented. Well, we saw their returns on the field, but just overall, let's have the value conversation about
20:18running backs here, especially coming off a great performance from one who just got paid.
20:23So if you go back to 2015, a little over a decade ago, if you take the average of the top 10
20:29contracts at running back at that time and the average of the top 10 contracts among edges at that time, and you
20:36look at the percentage of the salary cap that those averages came out to, the difference between running back and edge was about a percent.
20:43The average of the top 10 running back contracts took up 10.04% of the salary cap.
20:48The average of the top 10 edge contracts took up about 11.17% of the salary cap.
20:53Quarterback, meanwhile, about 15.35%, which was already up significantly from a decade before that, right?
20:57When Peyton Manning signed his big deal. Fast forward to 2026, running back has steadily decreased as far as the percentage of
21:04the cap that the average of the top 10 contracts taking up.
21:08Now it's at 7.47%. Edge has climbed up to 16.6%.
21:11So you're adding more than 5% to the average of top edge contracts.
21:15You're taking away about 2.5% from the average of running back contracts.
21:18Quarterback has gone up to 21.25%. So they're just taking more and more and more.
21:23And I look at it as, you know, not that running backs are being properly valued now.
21:28I think running backs have been devalued erroneously even at the expense of- Erroneous on all accounts.
21:33On every account. But all these other positions have just taken money from these running backs.
21:38Yeah, right. And then you see these offenses that have highly paid quarterbacks and highly paid receivers and they can't move the ball.
21:45And it's because they're consistently in third and long because they can't run the ball.
21:49You're just kind of lighting money on fire when you do that because you have all of, you know, this massive percentage
21:56of your salary cap, let's say in the Bengals case, in quarterback and two receivers, if they were the worst run game
22:02in the league and they were consistently in third and eight because they couldn't run the ball.
22:07If you're looking league-wide at third down conversion percentages, third and one to three, league-wide average conversion is 60%.
22:13That's pretty damn good. League-wide average conversion on third and four to six to go is 43.7%.
22:18Still pretty good. Once you get to third and seven to 10, drops like a rock down to 31.3%.
22:2411 plus is 14.5%. So when you're bringing in a running back that can raise the ceiling of your running game, even
22:30by like a yard per carry, and you're a good early down run team, and you can get to more third and
22:37four and six rather than third and seven to 10, naturally your third down conversion rate is going to go up, which
22:44means your offense is staying on the field, which means you're getting more value out of the rest of your offense.
22:50Just by paying a running back seven and a half percent of your salary cap, like it is the most undervalued position in the sport right now.
22:58It's been devalued wrongly, erroneously, and we're starting to see these offenses realize that.
23:02You bring in Kenneth Walker, who's raising the ceiling of your running game.
23:06Pat Mahomes started the night, what, like two of 12?
23:09But it didn't matter because you had a running back that could still keep you on schedule and break off explosives by himself.
23:16Baltimore brought in Derrick Henry, elevated their run game.
23:19The Niners traded a bunch of picks for CMC.
23:21You think they regret that? No. The Texans traded for Dave Montgomery.
23:25They had a good short yardage game for the first time in like years in week one.
23:30So don't tell me running backs don't matter. You have to pay them.
23:34Not anybody can do this. And the fact that we were gaslit and thinking like, oh yeah, Alfred Morris is the same as Adrian Peterson.
23:42No, he's not. All respect to Alfred Morris. It's not the same.
23:45But that's always been the conversation is the ones that are worth it are worth it.
23:50To like oversimplify everything into one sentence, you have to find the running backs that individually can elevate the offense.
23:56Because there's a lot of running games where most of the success is credit to the offensive line and how potent the
24:03passing game is and how easy things can be at the line of scrimmage.
24:07But when you get a back like Kenneth Walker, who led week one with 14 missed tackles and 114 missed tackle yards, that is that super valuable.
24:15Because wherever you force a missed tackle, you're bringing individual value to a play.
24:19It's independent of your offensive line. It's why when I look at scouting, there's so many backs who rush for a crap
24:26ton of yards when they're in college. But the ones that become great pros are the ones who, whether it's behind the
24:32line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, beyond the line of scrimmage, if you are making guys miss and if you
24:39are getting yards after contact, that is you. That is individual value.
24:42And that's when you really start to elevate an offense.
24:45And that is why Kenneth Walker was worth it for the Kansas City Chiefs.
24:50And that's why he's going to be a focal point again in a game against the Colts who struggled to contain Derrick Henry.
24:57It doesn't get any easier this week now that you're facing Kenneth Walker coming off that performance on Monday night.
25:03Also, one note to look at with these Colts linebackers.
25:06Second round pick, C.J. Allen, no snaps. Bryce Betcher, fourth round pick, 30% of the snaps.
25:10Not sure why yet, but something to keep an eye on.
25:14Interesting. Interesting. Interesting. Eagles-Titans. Eagles come away with a win against the Washington Commanders, but didn't exactly look like the Eagles of old.
25:21And I think specifically, Brett, the offensive line. The heart and soul, the true identity of why the Eagles have been so good.
25:28It's been in both trenches. And that O-line did not look the same in Philadelphia against Washington.
25:33Landon Dickerson, he just went on IR. And it was bad.
25:36He needed to go on IR. He can't play right now.
25:39He can't move right now. But it wasn't even just him.
25:43The entire Eagles offensive line wasn't good. They allowed a 36.4% pressure rate.
25:46That was 12 highest. But really, the worst numbers were in the run game.
25:51Saquon got the vast majority of his yards after contact because he needed to.
25:55Right? You took out the one long run that he had in that game.
25:59The rest of his day was 14 carries for 41 yards.
26:02He was getting nothing done. And when you take away that kind of run game easy button from the Eagles, no matter
26:09who their offensive coordinator is, when you take that away, Jalen just has to play on hard mode.
26:14And credit to him, by the way, he did that.
26:17Like, he made several excellent plays to bail him out of trouble in that game.
26:22He had five scrambles for 48 yards, third most across all of week one.
26:26Most in a game for him since week one of last year.
26:309.6 yards per carry on those scrambles. Like, he was damn near getting a first down every time he took off.
26:36There was a third and 18 late in the game that he converted, just taking it upon his back.
26:42Be like, I got to get us this first down.
26:45It's a one-point game. We're late in this thing.
26:47We got to go. And he did it. This was the Jalen Hurts put the team on your back kind of game.
26:54And, you know, credit to him for doing it.
26:57Not a whole lot else worked with this offense because of the offensive line.
27:01But if Jalen can do that until they get this offensive line sorted, maybe Dickerson comes off IR.
27:06Until that, if Jalen can keep playing like this, they have a shot.
27:10But, boy, the difficulty level is just off the charts for him right now.
27:14On the other side of things, I want to talk about the Titans offense.
27:19Because there was a lot of hype for, you know, the new coaching staff.
27:23Brian Dayville being with Cam Ward. Obviously, you draft Carnell Tate number four overall.
27:27But really tough first day. Cam Ward was 19 for 32.
27:30140 passing yards. Had a touchdown. No interceptions. QB rating of just 80.
27:34Completion percentage below 60% here in this game. Ultimately, though, I just felt as though Cam still looked hesitant.
27:40And people want the yearly jump, like the year one to year two jump.
27:44But for Cam, there were the good moments. But then there were the hesitant moments.
27:49And it was still a mixed bag. And there were all sorts of inconsistencies with Cam Ward.
27:54To me, there's just so much going on in his head.
27:57He's not being able to play super free. And I've kind of got to get something off of my chest here, Brett.
28:04I don't understand why we weren't talking about the Titans drafting an offensive lineman at number four overall.
28:09They draft Carnell Tate and everybody goes, and myself included, I go, okay, look.
28:13Is Tate a good fit for the next step for Cam Ward and what this offense is going to be as a legitimate vertical threat?
28:21To me, that was putting the cart before the horse.
28:24To me, that was eating dessert before you're eating your vegetables.
28:27Because when you look at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
28:31The offensive line. This offensive line had the ninth highest pressure rate in 2025 at a 37.1%.
28:37And in week one, oh look, 41.0% pressure rate.
28:39Eighth highest in the NFL. So they're bottom 10 offensive line all of last year.
28:44They were a bottom 10 offensive line in week one.
28:47And this is the thing that baffled me the most, Brett.
28:50They played 10 or 11 personnel on 85% of their snaps.
28:53They played more snaps in empty at the snap than any team in the NFL this week.
28:58You know what happened when they ran those snaps?
29:01Either extremely quick throws or pressures and sacks and terrible plays.
29:04You don't have the offensive line to run 10 and 11 personnel.
29:08You want to know why the air raid and the spread offense works in college and it doesn't in the NFL?
29:14Offensive line. Because a lot of times, the best offenses in college football, the talent gap is so wide, you can play
29:21five-man protections and the other team doesn't have what it takes to cover you and get pressure the way that you need to.
29:28When the Tennessee Titans went empty or when they were trying to spread the field with four wide receivers, five receiving options, you know what the Jets did?
29:36They got home. They blitzed. So, for me, philosophically with this Titans offense, I'm worried.
29:41Because what Cam Ward did really well when he was at Washington State, when he was at Incarnate Word as well, and
29:47then certainly when he was at Miami, is it was a lot of spread offense stuff.
29:52He wants to be in the shotgun. He wants to have multiple receivers that he could go to.
29:58You can only do that if you have the offensive line to protect him.
30:02And if you don't, it's going to end badly.
30:04And especially because they don't really have a blocking tight end on the roster to help them out here.
30:10Like, they signed Daniel Bellinger. Daniel Bellinger played 14 snaps for him this past game.
30:15So, is he really going to be a presence where all of a sudden you're playing him on the offensive line and
30:21he's really helping out and he's in there for chip blocks and everything?
30:25Because then you've got to take a receiver off the field.
30:29And I don't know how much they want to do that.
30:32I'll tell you what. This game is going to be great for fans of excellent defensive tackles beating the crap out of bad offensive lines.
30:39Because we talked about the interior of the Eagles offensive line being bad.
30:43Well, Jeff Simmons is coming to town. Good luck.
30:46One play at a time. Stay in the moment.
30:49You're looking at the platoon of defensive tackles that the Eagles are bringing with them, right?
30:53You're looking at Carter. You're looking at Davis. Moro Joma was sensational against the Commanders.
30:58Like, he's the one who made the play on that two-point stop.
31:02He was reading a pole key. And then, you know, the back block kind of came in from his right side.
31:08He just spun off of it, wrapped around the center, and made the play all by himself.
31:13Like, these Eagles defensive tackles are no joke. And they made the Commanders offensive line look awful.
31:18Moro Joma with the big play. And the Eagles make the stand they needed.
31:22Which is probably a good segue into talking about Commanders Cowboys.
31:26Because I don't know what Washington can do to help out Jaden Daniels.
31:29Like, their offensive line might be the worst one that we're going to talk about today.
31:34And that is a low bar. Yeah, so they do bring Campbell as a five-man rush at the top of the screen.
31:41And they're just late on the kick out there, Coleman.
31:44And as a quarterback, you're feeling that pressure all day.
31:47That's speeding up your internal clock. So I was looking into the numbers.
31:51And obviously, I saw that the offensive line didn't play great.
31:54But I always like to sort of dive a little bit deeper, right?
31:58Jaden was holding onto the ball for a long time.
32:013.41 time to throw. I feel like he just didn't, you know, really trust the game as it was coming to him.
32:08There was one play in particular that I watched where he had all of his receivers to one side.
32:13And he had so much green grass to just run and scramble.
32:17And he didn't take it because I just think there's this overall hesitancy with him behind that offensive line.
32:233.2 average separation at the throw for the receivers.
32:25And a 14.7 tight window throws in week one.
32:28They're not great. They're like bottom 10, 12 in the NFL last week.
32:32But it's not like it was dead last. It's not like it was horrendous or anything like that.
32:37The main takeaway though, Brett, is yeah, the offensive line didn't play well.
32:41But specifically, the Eagles did not care about the commander's run game at all.
32:45They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
32:48And there were multiple times where I'm watching Jaden Daniels drop back.
32:52And even when there's play action involved, even when there's some misdirection, even when they have a threat to run the ball
32:59out of the backfield, the Eagles were like, dad, don't care.
33:02We'll drop seven. We'll drop eight. If you want to run the ball, go ahead.
33:06Try. We don't respect your run game. But I wonder how much other teams like will the Cowboys and will teams moving
33:13forward not respect the commander's run game until they really prove that they have to.
33:17If you don't have a run game or a run threat, it makes it so much easier for teams to really cover you.
33:24And that was actually what ended up being my main takeaway for the commanders is they got to run the ball better.
33:31And, you know, failing that, if you can't get through the Cowboys defensive line, you should at least be able to go around the Cowboys defensive line.
33:39We saw the Giants do that brilliantly in week one, just hammering the flats over and over and over again.
33:45Chris Collinsworth was like apoplectic during the broadcast about it.
33:48He's like, how are you guys not covering this?
33:51And we actually had some really good sound from Shadi after that game because he was so frustrated.
33:56One of the things, not an excuse, guys. We did not play well.
34:00We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route.
34:03Excuse my language. Those are going to happen. So clearly Shadi none too pleased there.
34:08And I believe I found the exact play that he was referring to.
34:12This was down in the red zone. It's a second and very long.
34:16And the Cowboys are in a coverage here that the Fangio world calls cover nine.
34:20Why do they call it cover nine instead of cover three?
34:23I'm not entirely sure. I bet there's a reason that goes back 40 years.
34:28I just don't know what that reason is, but they call it cover nine.
34:32It's basically just a three deep zone, four underneath, very similar to what we're all used to here.
34:37But there is a little adjustment that they call a site call in the Fangio world, where if the running back is
34:44what's known as fast to the flat, meaning he's not just doing a little like, you know, check release here.
34:50He's not giving a chip and then leaking out.
34:53Like if he is immediately releasing to the flat, then it's the safety's responsibility to push to the flat and take that away.
34:59If the running back is slow to the flat, then it's the linebacker.
35:03And so because this running back was fast to the flat, you actually see the safety, you know, point to him like
35:10he's expecting the linebacker to go with him. But if you're playing this site call here, it's actually the safety's responsibility.
35:16He realizes it way too late. Running back gets an easy catch and run, sets up a third and very short.
35:23And then they scored very soon after that again in the flats.
35:26Entirely different coverage. This one actually was on Barham.
35:29He should have been pushing to the flat there and just lollygag through it.
35:33But you can see why Schottenheimer was so frustrated and why I'm sure Christian Parker was super frustrated is because the Eagles
35:40cover this 10 times out of 10 because they understand that the running backs release is going to change the responsibility between the linebacker and the safety.
35:48Cowboys are still brand new at this. It's a very new system for them.
35:52You have players, especially Barham, who, you know, he's a rookie.
35:55It's his first ever game. I do believe they will get this corrected.
35:59Even the Eagles, you know, when Fangio first started consulting with them, they were kind of out of sorts at first when they started running all this stuff.
36:08That was years ago at this point. But I have to believe that a mistake this minor is going to be fixed in very short order.
36:15It probably already has been in the meetings that they've had since this game.
36:20But I just wanted to explain why Schottenheimer was so beside himself because this is just like cover 9-101 and they failed in their first game.
36:27You could tell he was very frustrated, but he was trying to bite his tongue a little bit.
36:33You know, this is a humbling business and we got humbled tonight.
36:36I think it's a reminder for everybody, myself included, as somebody who loves the draft and you know when these rookies get
36:43selected to these teams, you can't wait to see them out there and play in, it takes time.
36:48It really does take time for these guys to be able to do everything that they need to do.
36:54We have to coach the young players better, but when you play young players, it's part of the deal and they need to learn quickly.
37:02We got to talk about the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams really for two extremely different reasons, right?
37:08The Giants are coming off what I think we on this show have to call the biggest upset that we had last
37:15week because we picked the Cowboys as our 10 confidence game last week when we were doing our game picks and we
37:21thought that the Cowboys were going to win that game.
37:24Obviously, the New York Giants end up winning this game, but they're traveling to LA now, cross country, to take on a
37:31Rams team that are to look worse, honestly, just given everything that the Rams were.
37:35I mean, Stafford had a negative 0.52 EPA per play on his dropbacks versus San Francisco in week one, that was his
37:42worst in a single game since 2016. Nothing was working for the Rams, not only just to the Super Bowl standard that
37:48everybody has for them, just from going out there week one and kind of doing your thing, making sure that you're putting your best foot forward.
37:56It was not there for them. So we're going to talk about both of these teams pretty well, but what do you
38:03think about the Giants coming off of that big win now facing the Rams?
38:07What's sort of the area that you want to preview here for this one?
38:11It was a perfect plan, right? Nagy and Roman together, apparently a double negative makes a positive, I guess, but maybe they just needed each other all along.
38:20I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I've been traumatized by both of them too.
38:23Veterans. Veteran coaching staff, Brett. We'll call it that.
38:26Knowledge. Wisdom. But it worked. Again, I'm being kind of a dick about it, but it worked.
38:31They had a really good plan. And the fact that their entire plan was, hey, let's not go backwards.
38:37That was effective. They had seven possessions in this game.
38:40In the last two quarters, they had, what, 22 and a half minutes time of possession out of 30?
38:45Like, it was suffocating. Yeah. So it was a great plan by them.
38:49The run game wasn't particularly explosive, but it was effective.
38:52They had one of the highest success rates across the NFL, while also having one of the lowest stuff rates across the NFL.
38:59And if you're just consistently getting four, four and a half yards over and over and over again, well, you do that
39:06three times in a row, you got a first down.
39:09Then you do that four times in a row, you're in the red zone.
39:13And on the opening drive of the season, the Giants drive it down the field and they have the lead on the Cowboys.
39:20To me, it was a perfectly executed ball control game plan.
39:23I thought Jackson Dart was awesome in this game.
39:26Didn't have to make the Josh Allen type of throws, but did make the throws that he was supposed to make and
39:33was on point, was accurate, was in rhythm. All the platitudes we love to talk about.
39:37They were just really, really effective. And they took advantage of a Cowboys defense in their first game in a new system
39:44that wasn't pushing to the flat three times in four plays.
39:47We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route.
39:51Excuse my language. And I'll tell you what, if it's not broke, don't fix it.
39:55I thought the Giants obviously did a great job of managing the game the way that they needed to and not shooting themselves in the foot, right?
40:03And if there's a critique that I had of Jackson Dart when he was coming out of Ole Miss, it was sure.
40:10I recognized the great plays, but I felt like there were too many plays where he was hurting the offense or certainly
40:16hurting himself and his cause to move the ball down the field.
40:20And it looked like a lot more methodical. So I loved the sort of progression of even what Jackson Dart was able to do.
40:27If you want to call it an easy day at the office, fine.
40:31But he helped make it an easy day at the office.
40:34On the Rams side of things, I do think that the pendulum has to swing back in the other direction.
40:40There's a lot of things that could have gone wrong here for the Rams.
40:45We talked at the very top of the show of just the epidemic that was missed tackles and missed execution with week one.
40:52And we sort of related it to maybe lack of preseason reps being a reason why.
40:56The Rams don't play any of their starters in the preseason.
41:00It's just not the McVay way. And you tie that into, I'm trying not to be too hindsight with this, but I
41:06always kind of felt like a very strange travel plan for them.
41:10When did they get out here? Oh, dang. Going all the way across the world to play this game and not adjusting the body clocks at all whatsoever.
41:18I mean, this team did not look physically or mentally sharp for this game.
41:22And I have to feel is that within a much more regular environment for them, it doesn't look nearly as bad as it did in week one.
41:31But the area I'm most curious to see what is different in week two from week one when it comes to Los
41:37Angeles Rams is how they play defense, specifically how they covered.
41:40You trade for Trent McDuffie. You sign Jalen Watson.
41:43These guys are man coverage type of defenders. Trent McDuffie played 25.7% of his coverage in man in week one, fourth lowest single game rate of his career.
41:52Like he's a man coverage type of corner or certainly was when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs.
41:57They just didn't ask him to do that. I mean, he's played man on 43.5% of his coverage snaps since entering the league in 2022.
42:05That's the ninth highest amongst all defensive backs with over a thousand coverage snaps during that span.
42:10So I feel as though they acquire these man coverage defenders and they played it some, they played it 19%, but they really didn't play it much.
42:18And it goes back to, is this a little bit like the Colts conversation that we had earlier?
42:23Are you not playing your players to their strengths as a defense as a whole?
42:28Now, I think there are some things that you could look at with this game with context that could tell you that
42:34things might look different in week two. One, Shanahan does do a lot of motion stuff.
42:39And when you play man, like you referenced earlier in the show, you kind of give away that you're playing man when
42:46there's all this motion and Brock Purdy gets a better look at what the defense is going to be post snap.
42:52If you, if you have that sort of reaction to guys who were in motion, when they're in man coverage, there's a
42:59little bit of that, but I will say this.
43:01Mike Evans was a man coverage neutralizer in that game.
43:04I went back and I watched the man coverage reps that they tried to play in that game.
43:10And a lot of times Mike Evans was in the slot for that.
43:14They couldn't handle it. No matter who was playing in the slot, they did not have the answers for Mike Evans when they were playing in man coverage.
43:22So do the Giants have their version of Mike Evans?
43:25Is it Malik Namers? Is it Malachi Fields? Is it Isaiah Likely?
43:29Do they have that version of Mike Evans to attack them from sort of that big, strong slot type of a wide receiver archetype?
43:36I'm very curious. So I think that Stafford will bounce back.
43:39The Rams offensive line was still moving people off the ball in the power run game.
43:44I think those things will be consistent. But what does the defense look like?
43:48I'm not really worried about it without Miles Garrett, to be honest with you.
43:52I'm not. The defensive line was already. Oh no, they have three other good pass rushers.
43:57What are they going to do? That's the thing.
44:00The whole point of conversation was they added Miles Garrett to this defense.
44:04Well, guess what? Now they still have this defense, right?
44:07So it's still that defense. But what does the coverage look like and how different is it from week one?
44:13Very curious to see what that looks like for the Rams.
44:16I will say Francis Malinoa, no pressures allowed on 36 pass blocking snaps going up against Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk.
44:22Super intriguing matchup. And you also brought up Malachi Fields.
44:25I'm going to take my opportunity. Do you watch him as a run blocker?
44:30Oh, I watched him as a run blocker when he was at Notre Dame too.
44:34So he's a new father. Shout out to Malachi.
44:37He's a new father and immediately got dad strength because, oh my God, he was burying people.
44:42I thought you were saying that because he sunned people in the run game.
44:46Yeah, he just picked up a bunch of extra kids in week one.
44:50We got one more game ball. His first victory is at New York Giants.
44:54Okay, we're wrapping up the show here. Getting to you guys, the people, because you guys have been unbelievable.
45:00Since we started this show, since we first announced that we were doing it, you guys have been such a big part
45:07of all the topics that we put together. We've tried to take so many of your suggestions.
45:12And we asked for questions here at the end of the show.
45:15And Brad, I think that once again, we got like 250 responses.
45:19So you guys are so involved and we want to get you guys as involved as possible.
45:24We might even have to do our own separate Q&A show at some point.
45:28But we love you guys. Thank you so much for wanting to get in on the show.
45:33We really appreciate it. We will answer a couple here to round us out.
45:38Real Chris Yonke has the first one. And I think it's one that a lot of people want to know the answer to.
45:44Which outcomes in week one are liars? And which ones are you buying?
45:48I am buying, Brett. The Ravens. Buying their dominance.
45:51I'm buying the new offense with Declan Doyle. How much they were able to just move the ball at will against the Indianapolis Colts.
45:58I'm buying them being a great team. I'm buying the Bears.
46:02And I'm buying the Bears good and bad. I'm buying that the Bears are going to score a crap ton of points this year.
46:09And I'm also buying the fact that they are indeed going to give up a lot of points this year.
46:15So scoring 59. I don't know if they're going to score 59 every week.
46:19But scoring a lot of points every week. But also giving up a good amount of yards and points every week.
46:25It makes the Bears much watch TV every single week no matter what.
46:29And I'm also buying the Cincinnati Bengals. And specifically with the Cincinnati Bengals, I am buying how much better they are in both trenches.
46:36We talked about this in the season preview show.
46:39And it absolutely showed up week one. That offensive line looked great.
46:43Marius Mims looked like a future all-pro. Dexter Lawrence presence was well worth it in the middle of that defense.
46:49And the new speed additions they have on the edge looked beautiful.
46:52So I'm buying those three teams, the Ravens, the Bears, and the Bengals.
46:56What teams are you buying from week one? I'm a little bit more hesitant both ways.
47:01So I have fewer that I'm more definitive on.
47:04But I will say I'm buying the Chiefs because this is what they look like when they have a real run game.
47:10And the passing game wasn't even good. And they were still up by like three scores in the second half.
47:16It's crazy. So I'm buying the Chiefs. I'm buying that defense.
47:20I'm buying the run game. And I'm buying the 49ers because they're healthy for now.
47:24And I always feel good about believing in the 49ers when they have at least 80% of their guys, which they do.
47:31As far as liars, mine are like positives, compliments, I guess, even.
47:34I think the Bucs are liars. Again, coward. Your Tampa.
47:37Whoa, whoa, I'm being nice to you. Well, I didn't know you were going to say the Bucs.
47:43Now you're a man of integrity. Now you're a man who just tells the truth, you know, when nobody else will.
47:49Now, yeah, now I love it. Visionary. How often are they going to turn the ball over four times in a game?
47:56I mean, come on. I mean, hopefully once. I think they're going to be fine.
48:00They got within six points even with four turnovers.
48:03They're going to be fine. And then as for the panic button about, you know, Reuben Bain.
48:08Dude, Amarius Mims is going to do that to a lot of people this year.
48:12I agree. People need to understand how good Amarius Mims not just could be but is now.
48:17Like, Cappy learned how to putt. He's awesome. And then I also have the Texans as liars in a positive way.
48:24They're not going to give up 36 points to very many people.
48:27Josh Allen is one of, I don't know, four quarterbacks on planet Earth that I think could do that to them as
48:34far as the insane throws that he made to put up those points.
48:38I think they're going to be fine. You know, the success rate that they allowed against Buffalo was totally normal.
48:44So Houston, and honestly, if I'm a Texans fan, well, I am a Texans fan.
48:48I'm coming out of that loss as positively as I possibly can.
48:52I'm treating it like, you know, an SEC team losing to Alabama in the mid-2010s.
48:56And they put up yards. They were good in the red zone.
49:00It's like, that's a quality loss right there. Yeah.
49:03I think that my liars, I'm more pointing out sort of their opponent.
49:07Like, I think the Jets overall are liars because I think the Titans were terrible.
49:11So I don't know if it's going to look that good for them moving forward.
49:16We shall see. I think the same thing about the Giants.
49:19The Cowboys just played a horrendous game. So I thought the Giants were great.
49:23I'm not so sure it's going to look that good every single week.
49:27I'm not trying to take everything away from the Giants like we talked about in the preview.
49:32But I don't think it's going to look quite like that every single week.
49:36And then the Rams. So interestingly, I have two teams on this list that play each other this week with the Rams and the Giants.
49:44The Giants, I don't know if it's going to look as good as it looked in week one.
49:49The Rams, it cannot look as bad as it looked in week one.
49:53So we'll actually get to see what the result of that is.
49:57So there we go. That's our first question. Our second question, this one's from Mike Cash, and I think a lot of
50:03people are wanting to know the answer to this one.
50:06The Jets rolled out a 0-5 personnel on Sunday.
50:09Sure, why not? With five tight ends on the field, has the love of tight ends gone too far, Brett?
50:15How do we feel about this one? In fact, I had one of our analyst guys see, has this happened before?
50:21Because I was thinking maybe there wasn't. And that's not why we did it.
50:26It was just, we got five good tight ends.
50:28So he went back 20 years and he couldn't find any evidence of 0-5 personnel.
50:33So I like it for those tight ends. I'm still hesitant to call it 0-5 personnel because technically one of them was a fullback.
50:40So if we're counting that as more of like a running back than a tight, like maybe it's 14, but like the
50:47most hilarious 14 personnel group you've ever seen. Well, it ended up being, was it, was it, was it 0-5 personnel?
50:53Because technically they were set up in, I don't even know what to call it, like a jumbo pony package because it was three running backs.
51:0120s. And then, yeah, it was. And then they pre-snap, they moved into what was actually, I think, more of a 14 personnel.
51:08An alert for future weeks on that. Kenyon Sadiq was in the backfield.
51:12They could give him a, he runs 4-4. Give him a carry.
51:15He got a carry in this game, I think.
51:18And it wasn't even that play. Did he? But I think he did get a carry in that game.
51:24Yeah. I think we're going to see more of that.
51:27I think they just wanted to see how defenses responded to it, honestly.
51:30And it was open. I should note that. It was open.
51:34Mason Taylor, like the throw was there for the touchdown.
51:37Geno didn't take it. But like the play worked.
51:39It did work. It absolutely worked. So in 2025, it was the highest rate of two tight end sets on average, more
51:46so than any other year in the NGS era at 33.2%.
51:49And week one, par for the course. League average of 33%.
51:53So we were right there with that heavy tight end usage.
51:56Has it gone too far? No, of course not.
51:59No. It can't go far enough. Can't go far.
52:01What about 0-6 personnel? Take one of the offensive linemen off the field.
52:05Get another tight end in there. Jackson Haas, baby.
52:08He's a tackle. He is a tackle. And you never know what's going to happen.
52:12You never know what's going to happen when he's on the field.
52:16It's time for our game picks. A little bit of a confidence flare here for week two.
52:21We had a lot of fun doing this for the first time in week one.
52:26So what we're doing is we're picking our 10 favorite games.
52:29All right? We're not only picking the game, but then we're also picking a spot of how much confidence we have.
52:35We're keeping score. We're getting points for, hey, if we call this game and they were our most confident game, we're getting more points.
52:42Or if they were the least confident game, getting a little bit less.
52:46So what we're going to do is we're going to keep score throughout the entire year.
52:51And Brett, I do have your score from last week.
52:54I know you have mine. We have not revealed this to each other yet.
52:58So you didn't get your 10-spot game. You picked the Cowboys who went against the Giants, which so did I.
53:04So you didn't get your top points there with the 10 points.
53:08You missed that game. And then you missed your least confident game and then your second least confident game.
53:14So you did pretty good here last week. You got 42 total points when it came to picking the correct team that won the game.
53:21And then also where you had them in the confidence.
53:24But did I do better? That's the question. Because you have my final score in the envelope.
53:29How did I do last week? So your score starts with a 4.
53:33Okay, great. Good start. But it ends with a 0, baby.
53:36Let's go. Week 1 in the books. Okay. All right.
53:39Calm down. Calm down. It's one week. It is one week.
53:43But what we're going to do is we're going to keep a tally and score.
53:47So Brett is up 2 points on me right now.
53:50We're not restarting with every single week. So he is up 2.
53:54So if he's up 2 this week and let's say you get 8 points next week, then you're going to be up
54:0010 points on me on the season. So we're going to keep a score and it's going to be cumulative that way.
54:07Because if one of us gets way ahead on the scoreboard and we get to like week 17, week 18, it could
54:14be a lot of fun because one of us has to make some strong cases for some teams that might not win.
54:20So it's a way where we're going to have fun here.
54:24Picking these games, previewing these games, but also the confidence meter, I think throws a lot of fun.
54:29So if you guys want to follow along and participate on your own at home, feel free to do so.
54:35Fire them off in the comments section. We'll take a look at it.
54:39We'll go back and forth and talk with you guys about your picks.
54:43But Brett, the first game that we're talking about is Thursday Night Football.
54:47Let's get into it here. Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills.
54:51Who do you have winning? And where is it in the confidence meter for you?
54:56I have Bills over Lions for one. Okay. It is my confidence level of one.
55:00Okay. It's a Thursday game. Weird stuff happens on Thursdays.
55:03I think the Lions are a genuinely good team.
55:06Now you're opening a new stadium. I think there's going to be a ton of juice in the building.
55:12But just looking at all the firepower that the Lions have, this is kind of a tough matchup for anybody to have.
55:18Even though the Lions did have to scratch and claw and fight to beat New Orleans last week.
55:24This is just the kind of game that could really go sideways.
55:27And so while I do think the Bills are going to win, just because Josh Allen is an absolute superhuman.
55:33And he's one of the only quarterbacks who I think could have beat the Texans last week.
55:38I'm not super confident either way. So I'm leaving it at my one spot.
55:43Yeah. Understandable. I think you might be smart having them at the one given it's Thursday night football and it's two really good teams.
55:50I also have the Bills winning. But I have this in my four spot.
55:54So a little bit higher than you on the rankings.
55:57I'm a little bit more confident in the Bills.
56:00And simply put, I think you guys are going to hear a theme from my game picks.
56:05When the good quarterbacks are playing good right out of the gate, it's hard for me to bet against them.
56:11Josh Allen was unbelievable against the Houston Texans. You and I talked about this in the reaction show.
56:16We highlighted how much the Detroit Lions kind of want to play man coverage.
56:20And man, if there's somebody with some arm arrogance to really go after when you're not playing well in man coverage, it's Josh Allen.
56:28So I agree. I think the juice is going to be flowing.
56:31You're opening up the new stadium. Give me the Bills in this one and give me them at the four spot.
56:37Saints at Ravens. The next game we're talking about here.
56:40Who you got winning this one? And where is it in the ranking?
56:44I'm actually way more confident in this one. I went Baltimore over New Orleans.
56:49And it's because if you look at what Tyler Shuck did last week, again, all credit to him for that late game comeback.
56:55You know, got three touchdowns against all that man coverage from the Lions in the red zone.
57:01But they really didn't start playing man until they got to the red zone.
57:05And I look at what Baltimore does defensively with Jesse Minter.
57:08He not only calls a lot of zone coverage, he calls a lot of like very, let's say, tricky zone coverage.
57:14A lot of rotations. A lot of I'm showing you this.
57:18I'm giving you this. And Shuck really struggled against that in the first half.
57:22That was actually something he also struggled as a rookie against.
57:25And I just I look at a very potent offense that's going to put pressure on you to score.
57:31And a defense that likes to use a lot of disguise.
57:34A lot of really kind of fancy exotic pressure looks.
57:37I'm not super confident in Shuck to be able to sort that out.
57:41I like the Saints talent. It's just this might be a game that they win next year, not necessarily this year.
57:47So I put that at my seventh spot. I'm a little higher than you on it.
57:52Taking the same team. But I had the Ravens winning and they're at the ninth spot for me.
57:58The ninth spot feels disrespectful. Given Tyler Shuck hater.
58:00How Tyler Shuck and this team played in the fourth quarter in overtime.
58:04But I echo everything that you just said there.
58:07Tyler Shuck really struggled. And I think just the chemistry with the wide receivers, the timing, the everything was just a little off in that first half.
58:15And that was heavy zone coverage stuff. Jesse Minter is great at it.
58:19They understand when Tyler Shuck was playing well. And I think they're going to do everything that they can to sort of
58:25not allow him to really be able to read the field and just say, All right, that guy's in man.
58:31It's just about me putting the ball where it needs to go in tight windows.
58:36And he's got the arm talent to do it.
58:39But when you really got to continuously think, I think that's when he was a little slow and a little hesitant to get rid of the ball.
58:47Vikings at Bears. The Bears coming off 59 points on the road in Carolina.
58:51The Vikings have a comeback themselves. It's Flores. It's Ben Johnson.
58:54What do we think here? Who you got winning this game?
58:58So Chicago scored 59 in a game. Minnesota scored 22 in a quarter.
59:01So this game is almost impossible to figure out how it's going to go, especially because Flores and Ben Johnson have a deep history against one another.
59:10Johnson historically has been one of the only offensive minds that really does a whole lot of anything against Flores.
59:16I am picking the Bears in this game. I am not super confident in it just because, you know, NFC North shenanigans
59:22tend to happen, especially early in the season. And when these two coordinators get together, they're always throwing haymakers against each other.
59:29They do tend to get the best of each other.
59:32It's a tough game to pick. I'm going to go Bears just because I'm not 100% certain who's going to be starting
59:38for the Vikings at quarterback as of recording this.
59:41We don't know. And, man, 59 points. It'd be kind of weird to see them put up that many points in week
59:48one and then pick against them in week two.
59:50Where do you have them in the rank? Two spots.
59:53Not super confident. Man. So we're getting the low confidence games out of the way early for you.
59:59Again, I am picking the same team. I'm just a lot more confident.
60:03And so, you know, this is going to be very interesting if these teams win or lose because we're picking the same teams.
60:10We're just very different in the confidence meter. I have the Bears winning at my seventh spot.
60:15I have a lot of faith in what that offense showed us in week one, how Caleb looked, how the ground game looked.
60:22It was incredible. And, yes, the Vikings moved the ball really well and had an incredible comeback.
60:27I'm not trying to take anything away from them.
60:29Packers' defense was rough. And more than that, they really struggled to hold on to possession at all whatsoever when it came to that second half.
60:37So even though I have my questions on Chicago's defense as well coming off giving up 37 points to the Carolina Panthers,
60:44I don't think there's going to be this lack of possession, this lack of time of possession, this consistency that existed with
60:50Green Bay when they faced off against Minnesota last week.
60:53And I think that was a major catalyst for why Minnesota was able to come back and look as good as they did in the second half.
61:02Because Green Bay just, I mean, they couldn't hold on to the football.
61:05There was no possession for them at all whatsoever.
61:08No efficiency. And I just don't think that's going to be the case with Chicago.
61:13The Cincinnati Bengals coming off a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, traveling to Houston to take on a Texans team that
61:19ain't used to giving up 30-plus points. And so you know they're going to be extremely motivated.
61:24But the Bengals starting off the season really hot, and they normally don't do that.
61:29So you know they want to keep the momentum rolling.
61:32Who do you got winning this game? So this is in my four spot.
61:36Okay. I'm taking the Texans. All right. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these two teams are, right?
61:42Because the Bengals suddenly have a real defense. They have a real pass rush, which helps out.
61:47And the Texans suddenly have a real offense. So it's two very evenly matched teams.
61:52And the fact that Houston's starting out their season with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, it's about as difficult a start to a schedule as you can have.
62:00Last week, the Texans' Bills was at my one spot because I really wasn't sure who was going to win.
62:06And the game came down to the wire. I think this one's also going to come down to the wire.
62:12I do think the Texans are going to get the better of them just because I don't expect their defense to give up 36 again.
62:20Joe Burrow is capable of many things. There's a couple throws that Josh Allen made in that game that I'm not even
62:26sure if Joe could have done those. So I'm going to go Houston.
62:30I'm only confident at the four spot, but I do think they win.
62:34I'll go opposite side of the coin here. We'll differ for the first time on this show in week two.
62:40I'm going to go Cincinnati Bengals, but I have them in the one spot when it comes to confidence because I really
62:47don't know who is going to win. Whoa, come on.
62:50Somebody's got to be in the one. You were just saving that for no matter what.
62:54But I think this game is going to be really, really tight.
62:58And I'm taking the Bengals simply because I was really impressed with how they were on the trenches, both offensively and defensively.
63:05When you can play the way that you did with Jamar Chase, 12 total receiving yards, you know that that's probably not going to happen again.
63:12So you're going to get Jamar involved a little bit more.
63:16I'll ride the momentum here for the Cincinnati Bengals and I'll have them winning this game, but I just have them at that one spot.
63:23Jags and the Broncos. Two totally different week one performances.
63:26The Jags just blew out the Cleveland Browns in a game that was never close.
63:31And then the Broncos laying an egg on Monday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs.
63:35What do we think about this game here? Preseason, they tell you that, hey, this is a premier game of week two.
63:42And I think that it absolutely could be. But who do you have winning and where are they in the confidence meter?
63:49I am picking the Jaguars in this game, but I do think it's going to be a tougher fight.
63:54You know, we looked at how much Bo Nix struggled against man coverage against KC.
63:59Well, the Jags don't really play a lot of man coverage.
64:02They do tend to favor zone. Anthony Campanelli, you know, he comes from both a Fangio and a Jeff Halfley influence at the same time.
64:10So he calls a lot of quarters. I think on paper, theoretically, in a vacuum, Bo Nix should be better against this Jaguars style of defense.
64:17I am worried about it. So I only have it in my sixth spot.
64:22But I do think that, you know, if you look at just the difference between how Trevor is playing right now versus
64:28how Bo is playing right now, and it is a quarterback league.
64:32Trevor's one of the early candidates for MVP after, you know, one week of play.
64:36But he was absolutely unassailable last week. I'm picking the Jags as well.
64:40I only have them at my two spot. Where did you have them in your rankings?
64:45Six. Jags. Okay, you've got the Jags at your sixth spot.
64:48I have them in the two spot. This is a game where it's hard to have concrete takeaways one way or the other.
64:55Because, yes, Jacksonville was great, but they were playing what might be the worst team in the NFL this year.
65:01The Broncos look terrible against the Chiefs. But you kind of say to yourself, my goodness, a lot of the issues that
65:08they had were on the defensive side of the ball.
65:11Is that defense really going to look that bad the entire year?
65:14I mean, they were one of the best in the NFL.
65:18They gave up the most yards after a missed tackle in NGS's database history, which goes back to 2018.
65:23So, it can't be that bad again, right? Seahawks and the Cardinals.
65:27A little interesting game. A little closer than some people maybe thought was going to be the case with the Cardinals coming off that win against the Chargers.
65:35But this one's in Arizona. What do you think about this one and where are you putting in your confidence rankings?
65:42Give me the Seahawks. Okay. Go with Drew Locke.
65:45Even with a backup quarterback, I look at not just the talent on the Seahawks team, but also the coaching staff.
65:51I think it's a tremendous coaching staff. I am fascinated to see if Jacoby Persett gets away with doing it again as
65:57far as the amount of shotgun that they were in against the Chargers.
66:01And also just the average time to throw. Like, he had the second highest quick throw percentage across the league in week one.
66:08Only second to Joe Burrow, who got it out basically instantaneously against Tampa.
66:12And I'm not sure if the Seahawks are going to let them do that again.
66:17If the Cardinals start out 2-0, tip of the cap to you.
66:20Cool. I'm putting it at the three spot. Not super confident.
66:24I have it at the exact same spot. We're getting a lot of my low confidence games out of the way here early.
66:30I also have them in the three spot. I have the Seahawks winning.
66:34I love what I saw from the Cardinals. They looked fearless.
66:38They looked ready for that game. They didn't look like, oh, this is a team that could be picking number one overall next year.
66:45They say, hey, screw that. You know, they certainly went into this game, went on the road in SoFi.
66:51And we're not afraid of the charges at all whatsoever.
66:54And we're the aggressors in that game. And so I don't think they're just going to be backing down from the Seahawks
67:00just because of the reigning Super Bowl champs. They're going to come out and give it their best.
67:06All that to say, Seahawks defense is special, man.
67:08I think it's still going to get after them.
67:11I think that's going to be the X factor here.
67:14Give me a little closer, obviously, with no Sam Darnold in this game.
67:18And, you know, with the run game not being as efficient or as explosive as when they had Kenneth Walker back there.
67:24But I'm still going to Seahawks here. And you mentioned if the Cardinals can come out of this game and be 2-0, holy cow.
67:32We're going to be spending some time breaking down and talking about how this team had one of the best surprise starts of any team in the NFL.
67:40So we will see. Colts to the Chiefs. Chiefs, obviously, feeling good coming off that Monday night win.
67:45Colts, man, really reeling from what felt like a blowout against the Baltimore Ravens there.
67:50What do you think about this game? Who are you picking and where is it in the conference meter?
67:56Boy, I was confident in the Colts, you know, during the summer because as soon as we heard Daniel Jones is going
68:02to be back early, I was like, okay, well, I'm looking at what that offense did in the first half of last season.
68:09And they just laid an egg to the point where I was not just deeply concerned about how they matched up against Baltimore.
68:16I'm deeply concerned about how they match up against anybody.
68:19They called so much man coverage in week one but couldn't play man coverage.
68:23Right. Their corners even gave like the corners are supposed to be the thing they hang their hat on in that defense.
68:30They gave up a lot of yards in man coverage.
68:33So if they can't do that defensively, I don't feel great about how they match up against Kansas City who have all
68:39sorts of ways to just break guys open in man coverage.
68:43Not necessarily by being good route runners. I'm talking like formation wise and using motions.
68:47And then defensively, I think Kansas City's defense played so well and I have real, real concerns about how the Colts are going to come out against that.
68:56So give me the Chiefs in this game. I'm putting it basically dead in the middle at five.
69:01But based on what we saw in week one, I don't know if I could justify picking Indianapolis.
69:06I got the Chiefs at the eighth spot here.
69:09I'm pretty confident in this one because if the Chiefs can look the way that they did with Patrick Mahomes not completing
69:16a single pass beyond 10 air yards, sky is pretty much the limit at that point.
69:21I think the first and foremost is the are the Colts going to be able to stop the run game with Kenneth Walker?
69:27And then if you are, OK, well, now you've got to deal with, like you mentioned, Andy Reyes, very, very good at
69:34dialing up these man beaters type of play concepts.
69:37And he's got a great quarterback when it comes to timing and overall arm strength to be able to hit these fast receivers to get them the ball.
69:45I think the Colts are still going to be able to run the ball well, just like they did against the Ravens.
69:52But what else outside of that? That's my question with the Colts.
69:55What are you outside of what we thought you kind of already were?
69:59Can you be anything above and beyond that? Steelers at Patriots.
70:03How do we feel about this game? Who's winning this one?
70:06I put this at my eighth spot. OK. For who?
70:09New England over Pittsburgh. OK. All right. OK. All right.
70:12All right. Really bad picks in the second half.
70:15I get it. Drake May. That was the worst game of his career.
70:18Might be the worst game he's played even going back to college.
70:22It was almost like sophomore level UNC Drake May.
70:25McDonald's started blitzing way more in the second half to try to get them into more second and longs, third and longs.
70:31And Drake was like, I got to make a play.
70:34I got to do something. You're up 10-0. No, you don't.
70:38Right? And that's a young quarterback trying to put the game in his hands when he really didn't have to.
70:44And I think that was probably the best thing that could have happened to him in week one because he learned a lesson.
70:51Of course, they lose A.J. Brown in that game.
70:53So there were some longer ramifications. But he learned a lesson that he really needed to learn again.
70:59And now he's going against a Steelers team that I don't know if anybody watched the Steelers offense in week one.
71:05Not great. No, still not. Still not super explosive.
71:08Defense is great. I mean, they were able to really get a ton of pressure, at least.
71:13Although they didn't play a single rep of man coverage at all.
71:16So it'll be interesting to see if they just have a little bit more respect for what Drake May can do in that respect.
71:24I'm taking the Patriots as well. I'll put them in my sixth spot.
71:28I'll go Patriots over Steelers. Commanders at the Cowboys.
71:30Now, hold on. Before you answer this, if I'm keeping score correctly at home, you still have your nine and your 10 spot open.
71:37One of these two last games. It's your most confident game and then your second most confident game.
71:43Where are the Cowboys at? Or sorry, no, it's the Commanders at the Cowboys.
71:47So this one's in Dallas. Where's that one for you?
71:50That's my tenner. I have the Cowboys. You're putting the Cowboys at the 10 spot again?
71:55Second time in a row. You maniac. I can't be wrong twice in a row, Trev.
72:00Have you not learned? I'm going to be digging out of this hole until Christmas, dude.
72:04I'm also picking the Cowboys, by the way, but they're the five spot for me.
72:09So I'm picking the same team that's a little further down.
72:12So if the Commanders get the upset here, you might be in trouble, my friend.
72:17Dude, if the Commanders get the upset, I am hosed, but it's okay.
72:21If you just look at A, the Cowboys offense in week one, they only had seven possessions.
72:26They scored on four of them. The offense was not the problem.
72:29The defense was. And some of the errors on defense I think are very correctable.
72:34If you look at the Commanders offense in week one, they have structural issues that are not really correctable like that.
72:40They just didn't have the talent up front. They could not block Philly whatsoever.
72:44I'm not confident in this Commanders team whatsoever. And while I do respect the hell out of them for coming back against
72:51the Eagles and almost tying it up, they were down for a reason.
72:55I'm with you, and that's why I'm going with the Cowboys.
72:58But it's going to be worth monitoring very, very closely.
73:01A lot of mental errors and some reps where the effort wasn't as good as you wanted it to be from that Cowboys defense overall.
73:09And you go, okay, hold on here. If we get anything that's close to a repeat performance of those elements, you start to get worried about Dallas.
73:17But for now, I'll think that, hey, those guys probably watched the tape, said we do not want to put that out there ever again.
73:24It's going to look different. I'm also taking the Cowboys, but I got them at the five spot.
73:30Which means Rams and the Giants. I've got it at the 10 spot, most confident game.
73:34You've got it at the nine spot, your second most confident game here.
73:38Of course, you're taking the Giants, right? I mean, the Giants are on the roll.
73:43You've got to be taking the Giants here, right?
73:46Right? Right? I'm backing you in a corner to make you pick the Giants here.
73:50I'm a coward. I can't do it. I'm going Rams, dude.
73:53I am too. If this Rams team started out as the heavy, heavy, heavy choice for everybody to win the Super Bowl
74:00and they start 0-2, that might be the story of the first quarter of the season.
74:05You have Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP. You have Puka.
74:08You have Devonta. You have a run game that was really, really effective last year.
74:12And on the defensive line, you still have Kobe and Byron and Brayden.
74:16And you bring it in McDuffie and Watson. I can't imagine this team lays that much of an egg again.
74:22I thought it was just a recipe for failure how they handled everything in Week 1.
74:27And I think a lot of that naturally gets remedied in Week 2.
74:31If the Giants win this game, if the Rams start 0-2, boy, that's going to be an interesting breakdown for us on the reaction show.
74:38Because I got the Rams at my 10th spot, most confident game for them to bounce back and get this win.
74:45You got up at the 9th spot. All right.
74:47That's all the time that we had here for this show.
74:51We love you guys. Thank you so much for all the questions.
74:54You gave so many incredible questions that honestly, like, we talked to the staff.
74:58We're like, do we even need to just, like, have a separate show just for questions?
75:03Because we want to get you guys involved in the show as much as possible.
75:08Because we really, really appreciate all the engagement, all the love from you guys.
75:12It makes this a lot of fun every single week.
75:15Thank you guys so much for watching. If you guys want to see, you know, whether it's the film or the data
75:22or whatever it is, we're using NFL Pro for all this stuff.
75:25So that paired with NGS. Make sure you guys have a subscription to those things.
75:30And you can find a lot of this information out yourself.
75:33But thank you for hanging out with us. We appreciate it.
75:36We will be back with you on Monday for our reaction show of everything that we're about to see here in Week 2.
75:43We'll see you guys then. Bye.