NFL Pro Quarterly Report
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 38 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 9, 2026
Published
Fri, October 9, 2026
42
Player insights
33
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock PurdyBaker MayfieldBucky IrvingChris GodwinDak PrescottJordan LoveJustin HerbertNico CollinsBo NixC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCase KeenumCeeDee LambChristian McCaffrey
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeInjury18:00
Baker Mayfield is down with an injury for the Buccaneers. Even beyond the injury, the source notes that Mayfield has been very inconsistent going back to last year and the beginning of this year, so his return may not be the cavalry riding back in for Tampa.
Insight pageNegativeProjection80:00
When healthy, Mayfield has been good despite sacks; the source notes the sack issues aren't entirely his fault and that he's proven he can play well, but he's not even in the game against Dallas due to injury.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection68:00
Nix hasn't been great for good stretches early in the season and did not play quarterback well enough last week for Denver to win; the source notes he's been reserved in how he scans the field and chooses to get rid of the football, with an inexplosive offense overall, particularly in the first half and sometimes bleeding into the third quarter.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection7:00
Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level for the 49ers despite receiver injuries and his top tight end coming off an Achilles injury. The source notes he's impossible to ignore and is playing so dominantly that it's hard to doubt him, even when facing better opponents. In the division round last year against Seattle, Purdy ran 833 yards due to scrambling and pressure, outdoing his two most prominent skill position players by over 100 yards.
Insight pagePositiveProjection65:00
Purdy is playing at an MVP level; against Denver, he had a perfect passer rating when blitzed (called zero three times, averaging 20 yards per attempt), demonstrating his ability to exploit aggressive defenses through patience and execution with Kyle Shanahan's scheme.
Insight pageNegativeMatchup66:00
The two worst passing performances for Purdy in recent years have come against Seattle and Mike McDonald's defense; McDonald also had success against Purdy when coaching the Baltimore Ravens, suggesting a historical pattern where McDonald's defensive schemes neutralize Purdy's strengths.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveRole18:15
The source likes Bucky Irving as a player on the Buccaneers, but notes he's not forcing missed tackles at the rate he was his rookie season. The Bucs' conservative game plan focuses on getting the ball to playmakers, but Irving isn't a yards-after-catch type of player.
Insight pageNegativeProjection80:00
Irving is not forcing the missed tackles that he did in his rookie season that made him such a dangerous runner out of the backfield; he's not creating the same level of threat that made him dangerous as a rookie.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection20:45
C.J. Stroud is playing like a top 10 quarterback with an explosive passing game, threading tight window throws not just to Nico Collins but to everybody. He's doing everything Houston fans wanted, looking like he did as a rookie. However, the Texans are 0-4 because of a historically bad defense, not quarterback play.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection29:14
The source highlights Caleb Williams as playing really well before his injury, noting that the Bears have three quarterbacks capable of starting and winning games, plus a dominant run game. The Bears' ball control offense is described as the best in the NFL, and the source views the team as arguably the best in the NFC, with Williams as a key component of that success.
Insight pageCase Keenum
PositiveRole29:14
The source praises Case Keenum for consistently getting the Bears out of trouble two weeks ago on Monday night football, highlighting his performance as part of the Bears' strong offensive execution and ball control approach that has been the best in the NFL.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection80:00
Lamb had 17 catches against the Texans last week and can make tight window catches regardless of cornerback quality; the source notes he looked at Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter and still dominated, demonstrating his ability to create separation and make difficult catches.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveRole18:15
The source likes Chris Godwin as a player on the Buccaneers, though the team overall isn't playing well and defenses don't fear their passing game. Godwin is more of a win-down-the-field, contested catch player and good route runner rather than a yards-after-catch threat.
Insight pageNegativeProjection80:00
Godwin is not the Chris Godwin from 2017-2019; teams don't fear him currently, indicating a decline from his peak performance level.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveUsage8:00
Christian McCaffrey ran 712 yards in the division round game against Seattle last year, demonstrating his role in the 49ers offense despite the team's pressure issues and Brock Purdy's extensive scrambling.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveRole74:00
Watson is described as dynamic; the source notes Green Bay still has great elements including Watson despite injuries across the roster.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveMatchup21:28
Dak Prescott exploited the Texans' historically poor secondary, generating explosive play after explosive play; the source notes the Texans' inability to stop explosive passing plays, with the secondary allowing the highest explosive play rate in the NFL at 21.4%.
Insight pagePositiveProjection78:00
Prescott has looked good since week one; the source has confidence in how he's handling things post-week one and feels really confident about the points the Cowboys offense will put up, noting Dak can make throws even when the play call is wrong or the defense has them schematically.
Insight pageDarrell Henderson
NegativeInjury5:45
Darrell Henderson is in concussion protocol, adding to the Vikings' running back depth concerns. The running backs overall aren't necessarily dynamic.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveProjection80:00
Pickens made an inconscionable deep catch last week; the source highlights his ability to make tight-window catches down the field, comparing his skill level to CeeDee Lamb's elite catch-making ability.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeProjection67:30
Dobbins struggled to fight through contact, averaging 3.7 yards per carry against light boxes; the Broncos' rushing attack was negative 19 yards over expected with only 3.7 yards per carry average, indicating efficiency issues in the run game.
Insight pageJalon Daniels
NegativeProjection80:00
Daniels looked okay for an undrafted free agent making his first start; the source notes the Buccaneers' offensive struggles aren't mainly a Daniels problem, as even when Baker Mayfield is out there the offense struggles under Zach Robinson's scheme.
Insight pageJauan Jennings
PositiveUsage8:00
Jauan Jennings ran 728 yards in the division round game against Seattle last year, demonstrating significant usage and production despite being the second-most prominent skill position player on the field behind Brock Purdy's scrambling.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveProjection80:00
Williams looks like North Carolina Javante Williams this year; the source notes the Cowboys offensive line was beating up the Texans front, enabling Williams to perform at a high level.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection72:00
Love played well in the short passing game (zero to ten air yards) against Tampa Bay, which is an area the source identified as critical given Green Bay's offensive line struggles; Love needs to be better in quick game execution rather than his preferred backyard football style to succeed this season.
Insight pageNegativeRole72:00
Through the first couple of weeks of the season, Love wasn't ready to adapt to the offensive line issues by relying on the short passing game; he prefers backyard football—holding the ball, scanning the field, making big plays—but this year's poor offensive line requires him to get the ball out quickly.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveMatchup21:50
Josh Allen exploited the Texans' historically poor secondary, generating explosive play after explosive play; the source notes the Texans' inability to stop explosive passing plays, with the secondary allowing the highest explosive play rate in the NFL at 21.4%.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeRole27:18
The source expresses concern about Justin Herbert's decision-making and accuracy downfield amid the Chargers' offensive line instability. With the Chargers having a different O-line combination for nearly every game last season and the highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL, the source questions what Herbert is even looking at and is selling on the team's prospects, citing the inability to win with that much change and uncertainty in the trenches.
Insight pageNegativeProjection70:00
The source identifies a potential path for the Chargers to win against Denver if Herbert's deep completion percentage and deep passing turns around, suggesting this is an area where improvement could swing the game.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeUsage5:15
Without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, the Vikings had zero deep pass attempts, indicating the offense has no ability to be explosive in the passing game when he's absent. This underscores his critical role in the Vikings' limited vertical passing attack.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveProjection14:00
Kirk Cousins is turning the clock back with the Raiders. His 48.0% success rate this season is the highest he has had since 2020, and his 0.16 EPA per drop back is his most in a season since 2016. The source attributes much of this confidence to his chemistry with offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak, who was his quarterback coach and offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings during his 2020 season.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection4:03
The source had preseason expectations of a career year for Kyler Murray with full health and fireworks, but through four weeks the Vikings are 4-0 without him being the main catalyst. His 45.3% win probability added is one of the lowest marks in the league; 13.4% sack percentage is also among the league's lowest. The source notes he doesn't see what he's trusting, and the offense lacks explosiveness and deep passing ability.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection15:30
Matthew Stafford threw some of the worst interceptions in recent weeks but the source doesn't believe he will keep throwing the worst pick you've ever seen week after week, suggesting regression to the mean. He was playing a little bit better in the Eagles game and the Rams offense showed life for the first time.
Insight pageMecole Hardman
PositiveRole80:00
Hardman (referred to as Mecca Buka in the transcript) is good; the source acknowledges the Buccaneers have good players but lacks the star power to make the offense work when play calls are wrong.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveRole20:48
Nico Collins is a primary target for C.J. Stroud's tight window throws; the source highlights Collins as one of the beneficiaries of Stroud's explosive passing game and accurate threading of needles, indicating a strong role in Houston's passing attack.
Insight pagePositiveUsage21:00
Nico Collins is receiving tight window throws from C.J. Stroud, who is threading needles and hitting tight window throws to him and everybody else on the Texans passing game. Collins is part of the explosive passing game the source wanted to see.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveRole16:15
Puka Nakua is back in the Rams offense and showed what he was able to do as a contested catch guy. The source notes that when you have a player like that along with Devontae Adams, it makes a difference in an offense that has lacked easy throws.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveUsage67:30
Harvey got ten targets and ten catches last week; the source respects his role as a receiver out of the backfield, though notes he's not a consistent traditional running back option.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveUsage31:13
The source notes that Tank Bigsby has been able to showcase explosiveness in the ground game in flashes for Jacksonville, contributing to the Jaguars' complete offensive arsenal alongside Trevor Lawrence's passing game.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection31:13
The source highlights Trevor Lawrence as fantastic through the air, particularly excelling against heavy zone coverage all season long; he has also been excellent in the red zone when space is at a premium, supporting Jacksonville's status as the most complete team in the NFL.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveRole74:00
Craft is one of the best yards-after-catch weapons at the tight end position; the source includes him among Green Bay's great elements despite the team's injury issues.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
PositiveRole29:14
The source notes that Tyson Bagent was great in the Bears' recent games, contributing to the team's strong offensive execution and ball control approach that has been the best in the NFL.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:09A football team is so much more than a set of players.
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1:34Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, member FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Welcome to the NFL Fantasy Football Show Q1 quarterly report.
1:40Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you guys get your podcasts.
1:46Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
1:48Welcome to the opening bell of NFL Pro here on NFL Media.
1:52I'm Trevor Sikkema. That's Brett Coleman. That's a stock exchange intro for me, but the reason why we're doing the stock exchange
1:59intro is because it's time for the quarterly report around the NFL, baby.
2:03We're doing a little stock watch, a little stock update on how these teams and players have done so far this season.
2:10We're mainly going to be looking at teams that either beat or didn't beat expectations that we had for them early in the season.
2:18We're going to take a look at some takes, Brett, that we had in the preseason episode that we already have to
2:25revisit for good and maybe not so good reasons.
2:28We're kind of going to identify some really good assets and liabilities around the NFL.
2:32We're going to have a lot of fun here, just really wrapping up what we've seen through four weeks of the season.
2:39Brett, how you doing, my friend. I got a lot of stuff wrong this summer.
2:44I don't know about you, but it feels like the first four weeks of this season, I have been more wrong than ever.
2:52I'm not afraid to admit that, but this has been a wacky first month.
2:56The people love when we're wrong, of course. I hope that they come to this show and our expertise for when we're
3:03right, but they love for us to remind ourselves of when we were wrong.
3:07And, you know, I think that I had some good takes going into the preseason, but there's two specifically that I do
3:14have to address here on the show, which, Brett, I think is a great way to intro our first segment, which is
3:21the earnings report here four weeks into the 2026 NFL season.
3:25Let's take a look at some teams that either beat expectations or fell short of the expectations that we had for them.
3:32Let's start with the teams that have beaten expectations.
3:35Let's start on a good note. We've got four teams that we want to take a look at, and the first one
3:42that I want to look at is the Minnesota Vikings.
3:45Now, with all these teams we'll discuss here, we'll talk about and identify why they have beaten expectations, and then we'll give
3:52you a little bit of a buy or sell.
3:55Hey, are we buying them beating or selling or falling short of expectations, or are we selling?
4:00Do we think that it's going to go a different direction?
4:03The Minnesota Vikings are sitting here at 4-0, and this is my first admission of fault.
4:09I said that Kyler Murray was in for a career year.
4:12I said that he was fully healthy. We were going to see some fireworks here for Kyler Murray, and the Vikings are
4:194-0 on the season, but Kyler is not the main catalyst as to why that is the case.
4:25Brett, I just want to ask you, you're buying or selling the Vikings beating expectations and being 4-0 here?
4:31I think this is the weirdest one we'll talk about in this section, because in a way, they've met expectations, because we
4:38knew going into the season, hey, this was a nine-win football team last year with bad quarterback play.
4:43What happens if they get good quarterback play? And we thought Kyler Murray was going to give them good quarterback play, and
4:50they're undefeated, even without Kyler playing for all these games.
4:54And yet it doesn't feel that way, so they've met expectations in terms of the win-loss column.
4:59They have not met expectations in terms of just how they look, like using our eyeballs and the eye test.
5:05Like, this is not a good offense. Using the next-gen eyeballs?
5:09I mean, sometimes that's really all it takes. Like, you don't necessarily need a lot of data to look at a Vikings
5:16game and be like, they can't score. Like, Will Reichert might be MVP front-run at this point.
5:21Like, customary five for five on field goals, 31 straight.
5:24Will Reichert! This is a team that can't stretch the field.
5:28They didn't have a single deep pass attempt last week without Justin Jefferson, because when he's gone, they just don't have any
5:35ability to be explosive in the passing game. They're not good after the catch either.
5:40Fourth fewest yards after catch this year. They're down half their offensive line at this point.
5:45Donovan Jackson's going to miss the year. Darrell saw his concussion protocol.
5:48You know, the running backs aren't necessarily dynamic either.
5:51The only reason they have, I guess, met expectations is because their defense is incredible.
5:56But the offense can't do anything. So for me, it's an obvious sell, because this is a very one-dimensional team that is hanging on by a thread.
6:05And maybe it's a hold, I guess you could say, because there's a possibility Kyler gets better.
6:10But are you really confident in that at this point?
6:13It's possible. But I look at the rot at the core of this offense, and I don't feel confident in that.
6:20So for now, sell, maybe I'll buy back in later.
6:23But I don't feel good about it, especially compared to Chicago in their own division.
6:28Yeah, I'm with you. I'm selling the current version of what the Vikings are, meaning, hey, they're 4-0 in this current state.
6:35Do I think that that sustains? No. I mean, when you look at the quarterback situation in Kyler Murray, yeah, 45.3% win probability added.
6:42That's one of the lowest marks in the league.
6:4513.4% sack percentage for him is also one of the lower marks in the league.
6:50I just don't think he sees what he's trusting.
6:53Now, I love what the defense is doing, but Brett, let's be honest.
6:57I mean, their 32.8% success rate allowed, that's the most in the league by 5%.
7:02And then when you look at their negative 55.7% total EPA allowed, that's the best by almost seven.
7:07So I want to give them their praise for how good they've been playing, but you can't sustain that for an entire season.
7:15So I'm also selling. Let's go to the 49ers next.
7:18You buy in or sell in where the 49ers are beating expectations.
7:22I think they were the forgotten team in the quote unquote best division in football.
7:26I'm buying. I mean, I don't feel great about it just because I'm expecting the injuries to happen for this team.
7:33They've honestly already kind of happened for this team.
7:36They've never really gotten healthier as a season has gone on, but I'm still buying because what I see on the field
7:43is specifically out of Purdy and Shanahan is just impossible to ignore.
7:47He is playing at an MVP level. I guess it's either him or Will Reichert at this point.
7:52That was all Brock Purdy. Even with all of the receiver injuries and his top tight end is coming off an Achilles
7:59injury and somehow already hitting 20 miles per hour.
8:02I mean, God free will a white guy has a little bit of motion.
8:07I am buying them for now. I understand this team.
8:10They tend to not get healthier as the year goes on and they've already taken on some injuries, but Purdy and Shanahan
8:17have been so dominant this year that it's impossible to ignore.
8:20And I think if they get over the Mike McDonald hump, really the sky is the limit for this team because I
8:27think Seattle is kind of the main thing that's standing in their way.
8:31If you go back to the division round last year, Purdy ran 833 yards during that game just because of how much
8:38he had to scramble and get away from pressure.
8:41JSN ran 728 yards in that game. CMC ran 712 yards in that game.
8:46You have a quarterback outdoing the two most prominent skill position players on the field by over 100 yards.
8:52That is how much pressure. Are you sure the tracking chip wasn't, you know, like Purdy was on the sideline on the
8:59bike, you know, and they were just like counting that as the yards on the field.
9:04Are you sure? Because that's a crazy number. Again, just using our eyeballs watching that game.
9:09You could have told me it was more. That's how much he was running.
9:13I don't know if he actually had more than five clean pockets that entire game.
9:18It was awful. And even though the Niners are banged up right now, it's still nowhere near how banged up they were at the end of last season.
9:27So they do have a better shot of winning this game.
9:30Hell, we've seen a healthier 49ers team beat the Mike McDonald, Seattle Seahawks before they did it early last season.
9:37Look, if we go back to the preseason again, I said that this team would be missing the playoffs.
9:43A lot of uncertainty with that roster overall. And then you mount the injuries that they were kind of going through as well.
9:50I thought this team in this division were going to miss the playoffs.
9:54And yet here I am. They're 4-0. I have to buy how they are 4-0 because a lot of what I talked
10:01about, some of the run defense inefficiencies, some of the young guys having to get in there and play, the injuries that
10:08they are going through, all of that is still true with the Niners.
10:12And yet Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP.
10:15So as long as Brock Purdy plays like this very clearly, even when they go against better opponents, I think it's going to be all right.
10:23So I'm buying the 49ers and where they are right now, because how do you doubt a quarterback who's playing as good as Brock Purdy?
10:31What about the Cleveland Browns here? Certainly above what a lot of people had as their expectations a quarter or their way through the season.
10:39You buying or selling the Browns at the top of the division at 3-1?
10:44I might regret this, but I'm buying it. All right, baby, let's go.
10:48It's really about the defense. It really is. Not that the offense has been horrible, but the defense I think is playing
10:55above expectations in a post-Miles Garrett world, right? They are 50% man coverage rate, which is the highest in the NFL.
11:01Even by Browns standards, that's high. This is a team that likes to play a lot of man coverage.
11:07They're just doing it more than ever right now.
11:10Their pressure rate on defense is 40.4%. That is sixth best.
11:14Even without Miles Garrett, Jared Versus played really well for them.
11:17Mason Graham played really well for them before he got injured, but he'll be back in a couple of weeks.
11:24Their yak per reception on offense, that's really what's kept them afloat on the other side of the ball.
11:306.6 yards after catch per reception. That is sixth best in the NFL.
11:34If you take a top 10 defense in terms of points allowed since week two, the Jacksonville game, they got absolutely shelled,
11:41but since week two, they've been a top 10 defense, plus a mostly efficient offense that's really good at getting yards after the catch.
11:48This is a relatively complete team and they played a lot of good football.
11:53I'm going to say I'll be the hater and I'm going to sell sort of where the Browns are right now.
11:59I don't want to take anything away from a team that hasn't had success in a long time, but Brett, the fact
12:06of the matter is their offense has a 39.9% rookie snap share, which is the highest in the NFL.
12:12I think these young guys are playing well to start, which is great to see, but I think once defenses now have
12:19some tape on a lot of these players, they're going to figure out how to neutralize them a little bit more.
12:26It might not be an instant fix for them to, okay, they changed what they're doing against me.
12:32Now I'm going to change the sort of what's next, this evolution.
12:35Normally it takes a little bit more time than that.
12:39Inside the 40, the 30, the crowd loving it.
12:42I think the rest of the division is going to continue to play really well as well, especially if the rest of the division can't stay healthy.
12:50You know, Lamar's health is sort of an issue short term, but I'm going to sell the Browns, although it is nice
12:57obviously to see them beat expectations to start the year.
13:00The last one that we're talking about the team that beat expectations at three and one here, almost four and oh, it's Las Vegas Raiders.
13:08We buy in or selling the Raiders and how they've beaten expectations this year.
13:13I'm buying it. It's a complete team. If you're looking at offensive EPA per play, they are 11th best in the NFL so far this year.
13:21Defensive EPA per play allowed. They are sixth best in the NFL this year.
13:25Even special teams, their average starting field position, 36 and a half yard line.
13:30That is awesome. They're getting it from all three phases so far this year.
13:34Were it not for the fumble on the kickoff return against Kansas City, I bet their special teams EPA per play would be up there as well.
13:43But you know, one play can swing a lot of things.
13:46So I like this team. The fact that they fought back the way they did after that two touchdown flurry in 19
13:53seconds versus the Chiefs, that to me showed a lot of heart.
13:57I do not see them as a fraudulent three and oh, I see them as a formidable three and one.
14:03Yeah, I'm with you. I would have repeated exactly what you said as reasons to believe in this team.
14:09And we've talked about it over the last couple of weeks.
14:13It feels real. It doesn't feel like fool's gold.
14:16It feels like they've got the right coaches in there.
14:19The players are playing the way that they need to, not just in a way that's fluky, in a way that's consistent, to be honest with you.
14:27And I think that starts with Kirk Cousins. How Kirk Cousins is playing at the quarterback position is also why I'm buying this for the Las Vegas Raiders.
14:36His 48.0 success rate this season is the highest that he has had since 2020.
14:41He's turning the clock back, baby. 0.16 EPA per drop back.
14:45That's his most in a season since 2016. And Brett, a lot of that confidence that Kirk Cousins is playing with, remember
14:51I said that it was his highest success rate since 2020.
14:55Well, guess who one of his coaches, his quarterback coach and then offensive coordinator was with the Minnesota Vikings was during that season.
15:02Oh, it was Clint Kubiak. So clearly there's a lot of great chemistry there.
15:07And I think that that's going to keep rolling.
15:10Now let's talk about teams that have not met expectations here in our quarterly report.
15:14And we start with the Los Angeles Rams. Now the win over the Eagles puts them at two and two.
15:21So it's not all doom and gloom. The sky is not falling the way that it was the previous two weeks with the Rams.
15:28But are you buying the Rams for where they are right now, given that they did not hit expectations a quarter of the way through the season?
15:37Or are you selling this team? What do you think?
15:40Yeah, I'm buying it. I understand there were hiccups.
15:43The Australia thing, even Sean McVay said that he did not handle it well.
15:47They got Miles Garrett coming back eventually. Aaron Donald's still getting back into the swing of things.
15:53Stafford, I don't believe is just going to keep throwing the worst pick you've ever seen week after week.
15:59That's just not Matthew Stafford. So they'll be fine.
16:02Their talent is kind of overwhelming where eventually once it all starts moving in the same direction, you know, it's like a battleship.
16:09It turns slowly, but it's hard to stop once it gets going.
16:13It is still a battleship. And I agree with you.
16:16I'm going to buy this team as well, especially now that they are sitting here at two and two.
16:22If they can get a win over the Buffalo Bills, I think that really changes things going into a very favorable part
16:29of their schedule over the five weeks that follow.
16:32Devontae brings it in over the shoulder. I think the main reason why I'm buying is because, you know, with Puka Nakua
16:39back out there, you saw what he was able to do, even as a contested catch guy, where I've complained that there's
16:46just no easy throws in this offense. When you have a player like that, and when you have Devontae Adams as well,
16:53sometimes that's all the difference that you need when you have a quarterback like Matthew Stafford.
16:58He was playing a little bit better. And I think the way that the Rams came back against the Eagles, that was
17:05reminiscent of what it was the previous season. So I wonder if that really is, you know, the belief for the guys
17:12in the locker room, like, okay, it started slow, time to lock in.
17:16We got to remember who we are here. And all of a sudden, for the first time, really all day, the Rams offense has life.
17:24The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting here at 0-4.
17:27You're buying or selling this team that some people had as the division favorites for the NFC South, myself included.
17:33So I'm selling them, but let's be honest, the people do not care about my opinion on this.
17:39They care about yours. What you doing, Trev? Well, I'm also selling, brother.
17:43I, uh, man, I just don't really love anything that I'm seeing out of Tampa right now.
17:48It feels like their star players aren't playing up to their potential.
17:52The role players aren't playing as well as they need to in a complimentary way.
17:57And some of the young guys and new players on the team aren't gelling the way that they need to.
18:03You throw in the fact that their starting quarterback and Baker Mayfield is down, but even beyond that, Brett, I think the
18:10big reason why I'm selling right now is not only because of some new pieces on defense that I think are just
18:17going to naturally have it be up and down throughout the entire season, specifically up front, but also on offense.
18:23It just doesn't feel like there's a real threat.
18:26I like Emekibuka. I like Chris Godwin. I like Bucky Irving.
18:30I like these players, but it just doesn't feel like defenses fear them.
18:34And they certainly don't fear the way that the Bucks are playing right now because their 8.4% explosive rate on offense, that's second lowest in the NFL.
18:42Baker is smacked by Joshua Metellus. The game plan that Zach Robinson has had over the last four weeks has been so conservative.
18:50It's basically been, hey, we want to get the ball in our playmakers' hands and let them go make plays.
18:56Sure, really nice in theory, but Tampa doesn't really have those yards after catch type of players.
19:01So Bucky's not forcing the missed tackles at the rate that he was his rookie season, and the receivers, they're just not really, it's not really their game.
19:10They're more of win down the field, be contested catch players, find the soft spots, be good route runners.
19:16So I'm selling this team because even though they've been beat up, I don't know if Mayfield coming back whenever he comes
19:23back is the cavalry riding back in because even Mayfield going back to last year and the beginning of this year, very inconsistent for this team.
19:31So 0-4 I think is obviously worst case scenario for them, but clearly this team is just not what we thought that
19:38they were going to be with the whole makings of it.
19:42The roster, the coaching staff, the execution, everything. So I'm selling this team.
19:46And they can't get away with the bad start they normally would because Carolina looks good and Atlanta looks good and the
19:53Saints, I don't really know what the Saints are right now, I'm not going to lie.
19:58You can't say it like that because if you were talking about the Falcons after the first two weeks, you'd say that
20:05they were like the worst team in the NFL.
20:08And if you were talking about the Saints after the first two weeks, you'd be like, oh, this team's easily winning the division.
20:15And now two weeks later, that's the story of the NFC South.
20:19Just wait a couple of weeks and you could totally be talking about a different team at the top of the division.
20:26Four weeks from now, the Bucs are going to be 4-4 and somehow at the top of the NFC South that it's going to look completely different.
20:35I got to flip the script on you now, my friend, because we had to talk about the Buccaneers being short of expectations.
20:42The Houston Texans are next at that same 0-4.
20:45So are you buying or selling where the Texans are sitting here in 0-4 on the season?
20:50The worst part is how they're bad. It's everything that we wished for this offseason.
20:55We wanted C.J. Stroud to look like a top 10 quarterback.
20:58We wanted this passing game to be explosive. We wanted him to look like he did, honestly, as a rookie, threading those
21:05needles and hitting tight window throws, not just to Nico Collins, but to everybody.
21:10And he's done that, even with an offensive line that, while not as bad as the worst Texans offensive line that he's
21:17had, I wouldn't say they've been amazing so far this year.
21:20And he just looks like that guy at quarterback.
21:23It is everything that Houston fans wanted. But for some reason, that monkey paw curled, and we got one of the worst
21:30defenses that we've had in recent history in Houston as well.
21:33If you're looking at explosive play rate allowed, if you're looking at tight window throw allowed, like this secondary has gotten absolutely shelled.
21:41I never would have imagined C.D. Lamb even could get 17 catches on the Texans, and he did it and made it look easy.
21:48Like Dak Prescott was just getting explosive after explosive.
21:51Josh Allen was getting explosive after explosive. Like they couldn't handle T.
21:55Higgins in the fourth quarter a couple weeks ago.
21:58It's just they can't stop anybody through the air.
22:01And even though you have Will Anderson, who is playing on an entirely different planet right now, like defensive player of the
22:08year is not close because of how well Will Anderson's playing.
22:11It doesn't matter if the back end is just getting torn to pieces, and I don't know how to fix it.
22:18Oh, you're going to upgrade corner from Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter?
22:22You're going to get better safeties than Petrie and Bullock?
22:25Like, I don't know what you're going to do to suddenly fix this unit other than just hope they play better.
22:32So it's such an odd position to be in because they're losing in the exact opposite way that they lost last year.
22:38And it just feels like this team can't get both units to play well at the same time.
22:44It's been that way my entire life, whether it's 2016 having a great defense, but a terrible offense, whether it's the late
22:512000s Texans having a great offense with Schaub and Andre and Kevin Walter, you bring in Aaron Foster a couple years after that.
22:58I don't know how to say they bounce. I don't either, man.
23:02I had an out-of-body experience. Angels in the end zone.
23:05They kept me in. They've always had great offenses then, but couldn't get a stop.
23:10Like, this team just can't be complete. It drives me insane.
23:14And it's yet another year of only being half great.
23:17And I don't know what to do. So I guess I'm buying it.
23:21Like, I don't want to. Like, I don't want to, but I'm doing it again.
23:26Well, if it makes you feel better, I'm also buying this team.
23:30Early and often, baby. Early and often. Early and often, baby.
23:33Let's go. I think that beauty is in the eye of the beholder with this, right?
23:38It can't be this bad forever for a Texans defense that was one of the best in the NFL last year, that
23:45has a defensive player of the year candidate, that has a lot of the same players that they had the year before.
23:52I mean, the Texans are giving up the highest explosive play rate in the NFL right now.
23:57It's at 21.4%. It's just not going to sustain like that.
24:01They're forcing like zero turnovers right now. That's just not, I can't imagine that's going to sustain.
24:06So I think the defense will naturally get closer to at least middle of the pack in the NFL.
24:12And even if the offense gets a little quieter, to me, I still see a world where they can play complimentary with each other.
24:20And I'm going to buy the Houston Texans. The last team here is the Los Angeles Chargers, also 0-4 on the season.
24:27I'm selling this team. Not that I don't think it could get a little bit better, but Brett, it's the same issues
24:34that they had last year, just as much more of an Achilles heel because of what is going on around him.
24:41They have had seven different offensive line combinations this season, which is the most in the NFL.
24:46And when I say offensive line combinations, our researcher, Callie, basically put the minimum of, you have to play at least 10 snaps here together.
24:54You've got to have at least one or two drives where you're playing together as a unit.
24:59Seven of those already. There's only been four weeks this season.
25:03And Brett, if you go back to last year, it's crazy because they also led the NFL with 18 different O-line combinations.
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26:43Monday night is made for the moments everyone has an opinion on.
26:47Maybe it's the call that changes the game. Maybe it's the play that looks completely different on replay, especially when it's a former quarterback who's breaking down.
26:55Or maybe it's the decision that everyone will still be debating tomorrow.
26:59With that much to stay locked in for, dinners, they gotta be easy.
27:03Before kickoff, get a DiGiorno pizza ready and settle in.
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27:33Brett, there's only 17 regular season games. Now they did make the playoffs so they had the extra game.
27:39They had a different O-line combination for every single game they played last season.
27:44Now it didn't add up exactly to that obviously, but that's crazy.
27:48It's crazy how bad the luck is there for the Chargers.
27:51So we can sit here and we can talk about the inconsistencies in the run game and some of the struggles with
27:58the receivers downfield and what in the hell Justin Herbert's even looking at.
28:02But when you have changes and inconsistencies on the offensive line like that, how do you realistically think that it's going to get better?
28:10It's going to get a little bit better with the Chargers, but I'm selling this team.
28:15I think this ship has sailed this season for them because how do you win with that much change and uncertainty in the trenches?
28:22I don't think you can. Yeah. I'm selling as well.
28:26Highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL. One of the worst turnover rates in the NFL.
28:31I think it's two and a half per game.
28:34I can't buy that. I just can't. I can't do it.
28:37So yeah, put me down for sale. All right.
28:40That's all for the earnings report. We'll talk about some other teams in similar ways in a little bit, but I want
28:47to talk about the hottest buy four weeks into the season here, Brett.
28:51And there's nothing fancy about this one. There's no, oh, let me, you know, recognize maybe where a team is winning in the margins here or there.
29:00No, no, no, no. What's been the best stock?
29:02Who's been the best team? Four weeks into the season, if you were doing a power ranking of who's been the best, who you got?
29:10I'm going to say Chicago. I mean, they've, they've just been playing with their food.
29:15Honestly, last two weeks, not even with Caleb on the field, like their best defense has been their offense.
29:21They didn't let the jets have the ball. Case Keenum was consistently getting them out of trouble two weeks ago on Monday night football.
29:29Like Baygent was great. Keenum was great. Caleb before the injury, I thought was playing really well.
29:34Do you have three quarterbacks on this team that can start and win you games plus a dominant run game?
29:40They're getting a hundred yards rushing per game just to the right side, let alone the runs to the left side too.
29:47Their ball control offense is the best in the NFL.
29:51They're just unbelievable at it. And the defense has played better than I thought they would, especially after, you know, they got
29:58lit up by Bryce in the opening week. Their fourth fewest EPA per play allowed so far this year, and their fifth
30:05fewest in terms of total EPA allowed. So if the defense is reasonably good and the offense looks like that, I feel
30:12like there's nothing left to complain about at that point.
30:15Like this looks like arguably the best team in the NFC.
30:18I'm glad that you brought up that Carolina game because I think that's exactly how I would talk about it.
30:25Maybe even defend your take for the bears being one of maybe the best team in the NFL is because yeah.
30:31Okay. The defense probably had their worst game against the Carolina Panthers in week one so far this season, right?
30:38Who won that game? Chicago. Chicago. Yeah. Why'd they win it?
30:41Because they scored 59 points. Yeah. And the point of the game of football is to simply score more points than the other team.
30:49And I'm not sure I believe in anybody more than I believe in Chicago to be able to do that, but they
30:56are not my hottest buy to start the season.
30:58They're one of them for sure. So I think it's a good call out, but to me, the hottest buy is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
31:06Because when you want to talk about complete football teams, I'd argue there is not a more complete football team in the
31:13NFL than what the Jags have right now. Offense Trevor Lawrence has been fantastic.
31:17If you're playing heavy zone against him, he has been tearing it up all season long.
31:23And on those games where, okay, maybe it's not a lighted up through the air type of a game.
31:29They've got explosiveness in the ground game that they can go to.
31:32And Tootin's been able to showcase that in flashes.
31:35When they have gotten in the red zone, Lawrence has been excellent when space is at a premium.
31:41The defense is playing really well as well. They are forcing tight window throws on a regular basis with how they are playing.
31:48Also 11.4 missed tackle rate. That's 10th lowest in the NFL.
31:52Fundamentally sound. Then you throw in the fact that they're good on special teams.
31:56They've got Cam Little as an ultimate weapon, as a kicker as well.
32:00Brett, to me, this is the most complete team in the NFL.
32:04If I was doing a power ranking in the league right now, this would be my top team.
32:10I can't really argue against it as long as you put Chicago number two.
32:14I think it still puts Seattle number two, but Chicago, I think, is in that next category there.
32:20Hell of a job, fellas! Man, we talked about this week, man, being a big week to find out who we were.
32:27And you guys answered that call, man. Now let's take a look at players that are paying dividends for you.
32:33So let's talk about these safe investments, these players that you absolutely want to pour most of your resources into because you
32:40know they're going to deliver week in and week out in a big way for these teams.
32:46We've each got a couple of these guys that we want to go to.
32:50So I'll let you go. Let's go rapid fire here.
32:53You sort of list off your three guys, kind of talk about them a little bit.
32:58I'll give my thoughts and then I'll move on to my three.
33:02Yeah, I'll start with Jacob Rodriguez, a linebacker out of Miami, which a lot of people might think, what do you mean
33:09that's the thing that everybody was investing in? Everybody knew he was going to be good.
33:14I promise you, if you watch Texas Tech last year, the tackle numbers that he's putting up are not surprising.
33:20This was an incredibly safe investment before the season.
33:23A, because he was going to get snaps on this Miami team.
33:27Let's be realistic. And if he was on the field, he was going to get tackles.
33:32He has 46 in four games, second most of the NFL.
33:36He has 18 run stops, also second most. 27 total defensive stops.
33:39Again, this is in four games, most in the NFL.
33:43His missed tackle percentage is just 8%. That's four missed tackles on the year, averaging one per game.
33:48So if you're only missing one tackle a game and you're getting, what, on average 11 and a half, almost 12 tackles per game, that's pretty good.
33:5716th best missed tackle percentage there. He's been everything that we thought he would be.
34:02Again, anybody that watched the Texas Tech Raider defense last year, you know, you go there and you look at David Bailey
34:09and you look at Romello Height and all the pass rushers, but you couldn't watch that without seeing Jacob Rodriguez be arguably
34:16the most impactful defensive player on that unit. And he's been that way in the pros.
34:21As for number two, talked about him already. Brock Purdy, best EPA per drop back in the NFL.
34:2610th highest completion percentage over expected. It was even higher than that going into last week.
34:31Highest passer rating in NFL. He's been incredible. MVP front runner for me or minimum top three on the ballot.
34:38I have no complaints about Brock Purdy so far this season.
34:41He is the reason why this Niners offense has been so good.
34:45And then of course, JSN reigning offensive player of the year.
34:49He's been everything that he was last year, but maybe even more as impossible as that sounds.
34:544.3 yards per route run, which if that held the entire year, by the way, would be the most ever.
35:00In terms of receptions and yards, he has 32 catches, which is fourth in the NFL.
35:054.4 yards per route. Third in the NFL. Six touchdowns, most in the NFL.
35:10Six touchdowns in four weeks is just insane. He could give Randy's record a run for his money if they really, really
35:17press that JSN button in the red zone more often.
35:20He could get there. He's just spectacular. And everybody knew it going into this year, and he's been exactly the same, if not better.
35:28I think that's also what's most impressive about JSN, is that teams go into it every single week going, without Kenneth Walker there, like, he's the guy.
35:36Like, he's who they're going to run the offense through every single week.
35:40Let's make sure that we stop him. And then you can't.
35:44And I think that that showcases how bright of a star he truly is.
35:48Okay, I'm going to get to my three here.
35:51To me, these are the safest, you know, dividends that we have had this season, and just guys who just mean so much to their team.
35:59The first one is Bijan Robinson, because, Brett, he is, dare I say it, almost O-line proof.
36:05Because when the O-line is blocking well, oh, we see some special plays from Bijan Robinson.
36:10But when the O-line isn't blocking well, it's almost like he gets more special, and the powers show up even more from him.
36:17Listen to these numbers for Bijan so far four weeks into the season.
36:2134 total missed tackles forced, that's second in the NFL.
36:24220 yards after missed tackles forced, second in the NFL.
36:28348 yards after contact, which is sort of that individual ability beyond the offensive line.
36:32That's the most in the NFL. 376 yards on outside zone.
36:36138 rushing yards over expected. Both of those most in the NFL.
36:40And his success rate on outside zone has just been unbelievable as a whole.
36:44Bijan is phenomenal. And I know that I'm not breaking any glass, breaking any news, however you want to say it, about
36:51saying that to people here on this show. But he is one of the safest bets that we have, because he is
36:58one of the best players in this sport. Will Anderson, you talked about him earlier when we were talking about the Texans,
37:05and being a pillar of why it's hard to give up on this team.
37:09We're four weeks into the season. Defensive player of the year is almost wrapped up with this dude.
37:15He's got 26 pressures, third most in the NFL.
37:1810 quick pressures, fourth most. He's been chipped 29 times, because obviously he's Will Anderson.
37:23That's fourth most in the NFL. So he's got all this production while having all this extra attention on him.
37:29He's got 12 solo run stops as well. That's tied for most amongst edge rushers.
37:34He's not just a pass rusher. He's a total package as an edge rusher.
37:38And dude, they play him everywhere. They'll play him on the right side, on the left side.
37:44There was a play against the Cowboys, where their defensive line was Danil Hunter at left end, Will Anderson at defensive tackle,
37:51and then Jadavian Clowney at right defensive end. That is so much power to deal with.
37:56And when you have the versatility of Anderson to be able to win at any alignment on the defensive line, and win
38:03at this level, well, that's what I would call the player who's going to pay dividends for you, and a pretty safe pick there.
38:10I mentioned some of those Bijan Robinson numbers, and him being number two in the NFL in these categories.
38:16It's because this next guy and this last guy, Kenneth Walker, is number one in some of these categories above him.
38:2344 missed tackles forced, most in the NFL. That was right above Bijan Robinson.
38:27235 yards after missed tackles. Again, you heard me say that Bijan's number two.
38:32It's because this guy is number one. The value that Kenneth Walker brings to this Chiefs offense, and how it doesn't have to be all on Patrick Mahomes.
38:41We already thought the Chiefs had one of the highest ceilings of any team in the NFL.
38:46And then we've watched what this guy is able to do, and now you've got to call up the builder and say,
38:53hey buddy, we need a couple of extra stories here on the house, because the ceiling's got to go a lot higher,
39:00given what they've been able to do on the ground.
39:03By the way, side note, the entire Chiefs running back room last year had 87 missed tackles for us.
39:09So he's already halfway there. We've only played for a month.
39:13So he's been that impactful. Now let's take a look at some penny stocks we're calling.
39:18These guys that you could probably get on the cheap right now, because the hype train's not too much, but you better
39:25get in on it now, because the hype train's about to leave the station here.
39:29Who are some guys that you've seen play well early on, who you think could explode, and maybe turn into household and
39:36headline names over the next couple of weeks and for the rest of the season?
39:41How about another young Dolphins defender? Just because I know a lot of people haven't got to watch Dolphins games so far this year.
39:49I would just for the defense. These guys are really entertaining.
39:52So I'm going to go with Chop Robinson, a year three edge over in Miami.
39:57He hasn't played every game so far this season.
40:00He's only got 65 pass rush snaps. And yet, he has the highest quarterback pressure percentage per next-gen stats of any edge,
40:07even over Will Anderson, believe it or not. I won't believe it, actually.
40:11No, I'm choosing not to. No, won't do it.
40:1413.8% quick pressure rate. That's crazy. That's also incredible.
40:17He has a sack and four quarterback hits. 0.78 average getoff.
40:20His first step was his calling card in college.
40:23It is just as good now. He is incredibly explosive.
40:26He's very productive. Got 10 pressures last week against Minnesota.
40:29They just could not handle him at all. He is an edge rusher on the rise right now and really deserves attention.
40:36My next pick here, Denzel Boston, which if you play fantasy football, obviously you know who Denzel Boston is.
40:42But a lot of people that maybe haven't watched the Browns so far this year don't know about Denzel Boston.
40:49Rookie receiver, X receiver, lines up 86.7% of the time outside.
40:52He is not a slot. He is purely an outside receiver that goes and boxes with corners every single step.
40:59And he is really good at it. 2.3 yards per route run, which is 17th among all receivers.
41:04That gives some context to JSN being over four.
41:07He's kind of in his own stratosphere where 2.3 is top 17.
41:11In terms of receptions and yards, the numbers aren't necessarily crazy.
41:14But if you're looking at the last Browns rookie wide receiver to be this productive in their first four games, it's Corey Coleman, which was a while ago.
41:23Trevor, I don't remember Corey Coleman. So it's like, I don't know, a decade or so.
41:28And as far as just any Browns receiver to be this productive in their first four games, we're talking about Jarvis Landry, which also was a while ago.
41:37A while ago. Yeah. Go ahead and bless him there.
41:40Go ahead and bless him there. Bless him. Bless him.
41:44God gave us this for a reason. Bless him.
41:46I'll stay on the rookie train for my first guy because, Brett, this is the player that if I had a vote
41:53for Offensive Rookie of the Year right now, he'd get it.
41:57I would vote for this player. And that is Ravens interior offensive lineman Vega Ioane.
42:02I'm giving love to the offensive lineman here, and I would genuinely give this guy Offensive Rookie of the Year.
42:08He has been that impactful to me. He started off as the right guard for this team, but he even had to play center last week.
42:16Went up against Jeffrey Simmons. And, of course, Jeffrey Simmons got a little bit of his.
42:21I mean, Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, but Vega held up way better than you
42:28would expect for a rookie player who is moving from guard to center for the first time in a long time because
42:35he played guard when he was at Penn State.
42:38Specifically, what Vega Ioane has done for them in the outside zone run game has been so impactful.
42:44Baltimore has gained 266 yards on outside zone plays.
42:47That's fourth most in the NFL. And specifically to his right side, 149 yards on those plays.
42:52Again, top five, fourth most in the NFL. 375 yards to the right side in general.
42:57Even just not outside zone plays. Second most in the NFL.
43:01And a 51.5% success rate running to that side of the ball.
43:04That, to me, is a Vega Ioane stat. Because when you put a rookie offensive lineman on the line of scrimmage, you don't get that kind of success.
43:13But you do if you are this good. So he would win Offensive Rookie of the Year, in my opinion.
43:20And then the last guy that I want to shout out, dude.
43:23Evan Williams. The safety from Green Bay. Not enough people are talking about this dude.
43:28He is such an all-around playmaker to me. They put him in the slot.
43:33He is a box safety. He is a linebacker.
43:36He is a blitzer. He is a coverage player.
43:38He is everything for this team. He does so much for them.
43:42And I think he is super underrated. Seven run stops.
43:45Tied for fifth most among safeties. 19 tackles in run defense.
43:49Second most among safeties. Four passes defended. Second most among safeties.
43:52He's got the whole buffet. He's diversifying the portfolio.
43:55Get in on the Evan Williams train before it leaves the station.
43:59Because I think it is only a matter of time before he is recognized as one of the versatile, most impactful safeties in the NFL.
44:07So get in on it. And those are some players that we think that you should keep an eye on four weeks
44:14into the season that you should buy right now because we think they're taking off.
44:19Here's the snap. Blitz on. And it is Evan Williams again.
44:22Fires it over the middle. And there is your dagger.
44:25And they will close this one here today on the road in Tampa.
44:29Let's get to the hot seat index, Brett. Four weeks into the year.
44:34No coach have been fired yet. But the seat's heating up.
44:37It's getting a little hot for some of these coaches.
44:40Who is one of them around the NFL that you think that we should point out here on the hot seat index?
44:47Not to beat a dead horse, but I'm going to go with Nick Sirianni here.
44:52I've had this take for a while and I have had lively discussions with Eagles fans about it over the years.
44:59I'm not really sure what he brings to the building other than, I guess, vibes.
45:03But he's not somebody who's going to fix the offense.
45:06He's never been a great, purely offensive coach. Right?
45:09Like the wonder kids. Like the Sean McVeys and the Ben Johnsons.
45:13You know, what we think maybe Grant Edinski, Nate Shieldhouse will be whenever they get a job.
45:19Like he's never been that kind of guy that you think, okay, it's fine if they lose an offensive coordinator because Nick Sirianni is still there.
45:27Their offenses have been up and down year over year depending on who the offensive coordinator is because Nick Sirianni is not
45:34going to fix it if their offensive coordinator situation is bad.
45:37So what does he actually bring to the table?
45:40Like, does the culture seem great to you? It doesn't necessarily seem great to me.
45:45And even when it has been good, I feel like that's been more because of player leadership than Nick's leadership.
45:51I just, I feel like when the team is so coordinator dependent and it has been coordinator dependent for so long, they're great when they have great coordinators.
46:00They're bad when they have bad coordinators. At that point, the pattern is the head coach isn't bringing a lot to the table.
46:07So what does he do? And I know I'm sounding very mean here.
46:11Believe me, this is the nicest way to put it compared to how Eagles fans are talking about him.
46:18And you cannot blow a game where you have a 96% chance to win and you're on the two yard line.
46:24You cannot blow that game. And he blew that game.
46:27And the Eagles squander a golden opportunity after a great drive.
46:31Fourth down incomplete. Rams take over and they're still alive.
46:34Down by 10. So I would say his seat with the exception of maybe two other guys in the league is probably
46:41the hottest of any coach right now because Philly historically is not a franchise that is going to give you a bunch
46:48of grace just because you won a Super Bowl.
46:51Like Doug Peterson was gone in under three years after he won a Super Bowl.
46:56So I don't think he's safe here. In fact, I'd say it's more of the opposite.
47:01He is on the hot seat. And also side note, here's a stat for you since this is a stat based show.
47:08There have been three head coaches fired on their way home from London in the last 12 years.
47:13I'm not saying Nick Sirianni is going to become the fourth, but London tends to be a trip where if you get
47:20embarrassed on the road, it really pisses off owners if you're doing it like on the international stage.
47:26You're the only game on TV. Like everybody's watching that game.
47:29If you get embarrassed in that game, either you get fired on the way home or you get fired after the season,
47:36like owners hate looking non-competitive in an international game.
47:39I wouldn't have thought there were that many, but that it's a lot.
47:43It's a pattern. I guess that does. I guess that does make sense.
47:48Yeah. Like you're getting embarrassed on not just national TV, quite literally international TV.
47:52Yeah, I guess so. It's never just, Hey, it's this.
47:55I wouldn't say never. Sometimes it is. My hot seat index coach is Todd Bowles.
48:00And I think that there's a lot of things that go into this.
48:04Very obviously starting 0-4 when you were division favorites, I think is certainly reason enough to be on this list.
48:10But also you just, I think, look at the full context with Bowles.
48:14Yes, they did win a lot of division titles in a row with Todd Bowles, but there's only one season where they
48:21won double digit games and it was 10. The rest of the years, they're winning eight.
48:27They're winning nine. They win eight again. This has been a mediocre football team.
48:31They've won divisions because the rest of the NFC South like hasn't been great, but let's be honest.
48:37I mean, they floated around 500 basically the entire time that Todd Bowles has been head coach.
48:42So it's not like, oh, they won all these divisions in a row.
48:46Look at these 12, 13 win seasons. Look at these, you know, NFC championship runs.
48:51Like they've had a couple of playoff wins here and there.
48:54Like this is very true. But for the most part, especially in the regular season, it's been right around 500.
49:01And I don't think that it helps that Dave Canales is looking really good with Bryce Young right now.
49:07Liam Cohen certainly looks great with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
49:10It has over the last year and a half.
49:13Both of those guys were in the building and amidst the success, you obviously chose to keep Todd Bowles over potentially elevating one of those guys.
49:21And I'm not saying it was an easy situation or an easy decision to make, but we sit here and I think
49:28unfortunately for Bowles, you have to go, hey man, we picked you over making a change.
49:33You go back to last year and how disappointing last year was after their start to the season and how it absolutely
49:40fell apart in like every way possible for this team last year.
49:44And the Buccaneers said, nope, we're still going to ride with them.
49:47And now they're 0-4. So to me, Bowles' seat was already a little warm going into the season because there was at
49:54least a conversation about replacing him after how last season ended.
49:58Now you have yet to get a win four weeks into the season.
50:02You better believe that seat's really hot. I don't know if Bowles gets fired during the season.
50:07Brett, I'm going to be honest with you. Probably not because who would you replace him with?
50:13That's the issue is that a lot of their struggles on the team come from the offensive side of the ball anyways.
50:20You're not going to elevate Zach Robinson to the interim head coach position.
50:24So I don't know if it's coming soon, but it certainly doesn't look like things are going to end well for Bowles after this season.
50:32It feels like we're getting to the point where if they don't turn things around in a major way, Tampa's going to be making a coaching change.
50:40In military families, service is more than a job.
50:43It's a legacy. At American Military University, that legacy can help open new doors through education.
50:48If someone in your family served in the military, you could be eligible for reduced tuition.
50:53Take the next step with flexible online programs built for real life.
50:57Learn more at amu.apus.edu slash military. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters.
51:03Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.
51:06Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.
51:14If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required.
51:18Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.
51:26Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur.
51:32Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine.
51:39Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
51:42Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview?
51:51Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal plus real inputs like notes, files, data and project plans.
51:57It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline or workflow you can keep shaping.
52:02You stay in control reviewing the work and choosing the final result.
52:06Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
52:10Get started at chatgpt.com by selecting work mode. Available on plus and pro plans.
52:14Monday night is made for the moments everyone has an opinion on.
52:18Maybe it's the call that changes the game. Maybe it's the play that looks completely different on replay.
52:24Especially when it's a former quarterback who's breaking it down.
52:27Or maybe it's the decision that everyone will still be debating tomorrow.
52:31With that much to stay locked in for, dinners, they gotta be easy.
52:35Before kickoff, get a DiGiorno pizza ready and settle in.
52:38You get restaurant quality taste. Fresh from your own oven.
52:41So dinner's handled while the matchup unfolds. Stay locked in for the big decisions.
52:46The unexpected turns in every play worth talking about after the final snap.
52:50Monday night is one of the best nights of the week.
52:53And DiGiorno makes sure to meet the moment. Grab DiGiorno on your weekend run so you know dinner is ready when the game is.
53:01No soggy delivery pizza in the fourth quarter. It's not delivery.
53:04It's DiGiorno. It just feels like it's yet another example of teams that are really afraid to fire an on-paper very successful
53:11head coach who's winning a bunch of division titles and everything like that.
53:15Even when they know one of their coordinators is the guy.
53:19Like he's going to be the guy for some other team.
53:22They know they're gonna lose him. They know he's gonna be great wherever he goes.
53:27It's eerily reminiscent of when the Ravens let Mike McDonald walk out the door.
53:32And every Ravens fan knew that might have been a mistake.
53:35Not even might have. It was a mistake. He won a Super Bowl two years in Seattle.
53:40And I think a lot of Ravens fans were like hey we love John Harbaugh.
53:45Respect John Harbaugh. Gave us a lot of good years.
53:48Mike McDonald's the guy. Like do not let him walk out the building.
53:52And they did. And I think when they brought in Jesse Minter it was an acknowledgement of like hey we had some really good homegrown talent here.
54:01And we let it go. We're not gonna make that mistake again.
54:05We're gonna get Jesse Minter before somebody else does.
54:08And so far the Ravens are looking pretty good.
54:11But now ironically they have another one coming up in Declan Doyle who they're gonna lose.
54:16But I think the Bucs are similar and they did it twice.
54:19Where okay Dave Canales he looked like the guy.
54:22Like you have somebody who's young and coming up you know within your ecosystem.
54:27We had previously seen him work miracles with Chino Smith.
54:30Then he worked miracles with Baker Mayfield. He let him walk out the door goes to Carolina working miracles with Bryce Young.
54:37And then Liam Cohen maybe even more like everybody knew Liam Cohen could take whatever job he wanted to.
54:43That was the big one. Cohen's the big one.
54:46And there was that ugliness on the exit. Right.
54:49It was really really ugly. And I think that might have been the sign that they should have just hired Liam Cohen.
54:56And like whether you do the thing of okay we're gonna promote Todd Bowles to like president of whatever.
55:02Or you just flat out move on. I think if they went back in time they would have avoided the ugliness with Liam.
55:09And just made Liam the head coach. And probably been a better football team.
55:13All right. Game picks for week five. We have ten games as always.
55:17And we are instituting a new rule this week.
55:20Because you guys have bloodlust. I have missed two straight games in the ten spot.
55:25And you guys wanted punishment. So we're instituting punishment.
55:28From now on starting this week. If we choose a game for our ten spot.
55:33And we get it correct. Obviously we get ten points.
55:36If we lose. We get minus ten for the week.
55:39So luckily I avoided punishment the last couple weeks.
55:42Ideally I don't miss another ten spot game. But they don't call it the Coleman curse for nothing.
55:48Trevor are you ready for your punishment? They're uh.
55:50No no. Not me. Not me. I'm not getting punished out here.
55:54I'm not missing any games in the ten spot.
55:57That's you my friend. So look. I haven't done that since week one.
56:01We're a long way removed from that. We've improved.
56:04Just like a lot of teams have improved in the NFL since week one.
56:08So have my game picks. But before we get into it.
56:12Of course we have to talk about what our results were last week.
56:16You mentioned that you missed your most confident game that you picked.
56:20You picked the Buffalo Bills over the New England Patriots.
56:23Ultimately you got 36 points last week. I don't know how many I got.
56:27So we were tied. We were tied going into last week.
56:31So you got 36. How many did I get for my picks?
56:35I mean getting 36 while missing the ten spot isn't terrible.
56:38I'll just say. It is because I missed the ten spot.
56:42But other than that. Not bad. You did hit your ten spot last week.
56:46You took the Seahawks over the Chargers. Never in doubt.
56:49Never in doubt. Never in doubt. No, no, no, no.
56:53From the first throw of that game. Never in doubt, baby.
56:56Buddy, the second throw was also a pick. Well, we don't want to talk about that part.
57:01The cigar's already lit, my friend. We're already off in the patio in the next room.
57:06We're celebrating. You got your ten spot. However, it was a lot closer than you think.
57:12You got 37 points on the week. Bringing your season total 148.
57:15So you were up by one. Let's go. Let's go, baby.
57:19Narrowly hanging in there. That's what you want to see there.
57:22By the way, we got to shout out some people who are getting in on the game with us.
57:28You guys can go through all of the ten games that we pick here on the show and put them in order of confidence in the comments.
57:37Because if you do and you have a really good week, we'll shout out on the show like we are right here.
57:44Girls Say had 51 points. 51 points last week.
57:47That was the top score that we had from anybody in the comments.
57:51Trey, 46 points. So, dude, if you would have gotten your ten spot game, you would have tied for second place of anybody here.
57:58Dutch had 45 points as well. For some fun trends here, 23 of the 106 fans that submitted your confidence picks out
58:05there, 23 of you beat me, 32 of you beat Brett.
58:09New England and Buffalo, that was the top trap game.
58:12106 out of 106 entries picked the Buffalo Bills.
58:15Not a single entry took the New England Patriots there.
58:18That single game cost fans a total of 915 points.
58:21So, we're having fun. This is a lot of fun.
58:24I'm enjoying this. It's a fun way to go through some of these big games every single week and get to pick them here with you.
58:33That game just single-handedly ruined my week in more ways than one.
58:37I'll say that. Are you ready for the week five slate?
58:40Let's do it. What game do we start with?
58:43We're going to start with, well, we might as well start with the Patriots again, to be honest.
58:49Patriots, Raiders, who you got? I'm going to take the Raiders.
58:52I'm going to take the Raiders in this game.
58:55And I'm going to put it in my sixth spot when it comes to confidence here.
59:00Obviously, the New England Patriots a lot better last week.
59:03Drake May looked a lot better. The defense looked pretty good trying to rattle Josh Allen.
59:08But then also mitigating what the Buffalo Bills were able to counter with on the ground as well.
59:14And so it was a much better looking Patriots team.
59:17But, man, I've got so much faith in what this Las Vegas Raiders team is doing.
59:22Maybe one special team's blunder away from perhaps beating the Kansas City Chiefs last week.
59:27And so I think the Raiders are on a roll.
59:30And with that coaching staff and with some of the new veteran leadership on that team, I'm not saying that this is a letdown that's bound to happen.
59:39Give me the Raiders in this one and give me them at the sixth spot when it comes to my confidence.
59:46See, I took the Patriots here, but I put it at the one spot.
59:50Okay. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these teams are.
59:54Like, I know the Raiders are good. I know the Raiders are very well balanced.
59:59But this one spot is really more I have no clue how to read the Patriots at this point.
60:05More specifically, I don't really know which Drake May we're going to get from week to week.
60:10Is it weeks one through three Drake May? Is it week four Drake May?
60:14Two very different quarterbacks. Two very different teams as a result.
60:18Is it 2025 Drake May? Is it 2023 Drake May?
60:21We don't know. We have no idea. Yeah. Is it sophomore year North Carolina Drake May?
60:26They might not lose a game if it was.
60:29It's his sophomore year of high school Drake May.
60:32You know, it's just a mystery every single week.
60:35But man, when he is on, he is on.
60:38He was exceptional against the Blitz. He had three touchdowns against the Blitz last week.
60:42They blitzed him 14 times. He was awesome. You know, that last touchdown to Efton Chisholm.
60:47Was it a great catch by Efton? Obviously, yes.
60:50But, you know, Drake May kind of feeling that pressure.
60:53Moving away from it. Identifying the one-on-one. Throwing a seed.
60:57When he's at his best, it's a very tough team to beat.
61:00So, I took the Patriots. But very narrowly. Because I think this is a true toss-up to me.
61:06Honestly, the fact that they're at the sixth spot.
61:09Talks about how close I feel like some of these games could be this week.
61:14So, obviously, we'll get to some that are lower on my list than number six.
61:19Where I have the Raiders winning. Next one. Minnesota, New Orleans.
61:22Who do you got? So, I'm going to take the Saints here.
61:26And this is going to be a little bit of a trend that I have with some of my picks.
61:32Where I'm looking at teams who are sort of down on their luck.
61:36Backs against the wall. Have to come out swinging.
61:39And when you look at Minnesota, we've talked about how, yes, elite defensive performance through four weeks from Brian Flores and the fellas.
61:46But on the offensive side of things, I mean, they're not playing complimentary football at all whatsoever.
61:52And even though I think that they are certainly a good team with how great their defense is, that offense really has
61:59to take not just a step, multiple steps forward for me to have a lot of confidence in them week in and
62:06week out to beat some of the better teams.
62:09Now, New Orleans, they're licking their wounds coming off of an absolute shellacking.
62:13I don't know if that's a word, but I'm using it here on this show.
62:17At the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. And it was at home, nonetheless.
62:22But I think that was very much a game where, Kellen Moore even said it afterwards, they were kind of unprepared for that game.
62:29And I just don't see that happening again this week.
62:32I think that they're going to be ready. I think this is going to be a close game.
62:38But given the potential of New Orleans offense, give me the Saints to be able to win this game, especially because through
62:45two weeks of the season, the early weeks, Tyler Shuck had the most passing yards under pressure of any quarterback in the NFL.
62:52So we know he's going to get pressured and blitzed, but he's actually been pretty decent at it, or at least was at the beginning of the year.
63:01So give me New Orleans. I'm going to take this one in the four spot here.
63:06So they said they weren't prepared for that game, but how prepared can you be for Brian Flores?
63:12One less day. Right? Because it was a Monday game, and you've got to come back in six days and play Brian Flores.
63:19I am really worried about the Saints in this one.
63:22And I know Saints fans are upset with me because I just showed the passing chart of Tyler Shuck and was like,
63:29hey, we should probably work the middle of the field more.
63:33Like, he's been very effective when he did it.
63:36We should probably do that more. And the response was, well, they didn't have a run game, so there's no play action.
63:43Historically speaking, you actually don't have to have a good run game to do play action.
63:48You just do it. Right? You have to commit to it.
63:51But this team has been reluctant to go under center, reluctant to use play action.
63:56And when the run game doesn't work, their answer has been, okay, we're going to throw quick and outside the numbers and
64:03basically just turn our quick passing game into our running game.
64:07And against this specific defense from Minnesota, where they love to eat quarterbacks alive who work or at least try to work that area of the field.
64:15Right? I'm really worried about it. Right? The Minnesota defense is structured in a way where they force you to be good at working the intermediate middle.
64:24And while Tyler Shuck has been good at doing it, at least from an analytics perspective, they haven't done it a lot,
64:31at least to the degree that I think they're going to have to do it in this game.
64:36So there's a little bit of an unknown here.
64:39It's kind of a chicken or the egg. Have they not been doing it because they're just not doing it?
64:46Or are they not doing it because they aren't sure if Shuck can do it, you know, seven, eight times in a game?
64:53Right. I guess we'll find out, but we're going to have to find out in this game.
64:58So give me Minnesota. I put them at the two spot.
65:02I think it's very close either way. But I am worried about the Saints matchup here.
65:07All right. So you're getting your one and two least confident games out of the way here to start.
65:13What's the next game? Just rip the bandaid off.
65:16Seattle-San Francisco. I struggle in this one, man. I know San Francisco is banged up, but they're always banged up.
65:22And I know McDonald has had Brock Purdy's number in the past.
65:26But just the way that he's playing right now, I mean, it's really, really hard to pick against the Niners.
65:32Denver threw everything they could at them. They held them down for a long time.
65:37It was three to three deep into the third quarter.
65:40And eventually they got frustrated. They called zero a few times.
65:44And Purdy, like he ate it up. He had a perfect passer rating and getting zero.
65:49And they only called it three times. He averaged like 20 yards per attempt against zero.
65:54And that's the thing against the Niners. Like it's a battle of patience.
65:58And the second you get frustrated and try to get more aggressive against them, Purdy and Shanahan just gut you.
66:04And I worry about Seattle trying to get a little bit too aggressive here just to make something happen and opening the
66:11door for San Francisco to do that. Seattle's red zone defense this year weirdly has been really bad compared to their defense in between the 20s.
66:19And if the Niners can just get down to the red zone, I think they can score on them.
66:25And I still have some reservations about the Seattle offense.
66:29Are they too JSN centric? Sure. Right. You know, they had a bunch of drives against the Chargers.
66:34Two of them started inside the Charger 25-yard line.
66:37If you're looking at like drive-to-drive efficiency outside of that, it wasn't a very good performance by them.
66:43So I'm reluctantly taking Seattle here. I'm putting it at the five spot.
66:47Wait, so you are taking Seattle? I know. After all of that?
66:51I know. I know. I don't feel good about it.
66:54I'm not saying I feel good about it. Look.
66:57But I am doing it. I'm going to regret it, but I'm doing it.
67:01Where were they on the list for you? Five.
67:04Okay. Like dead in the middle. They're three for me.
67:07So I've got Seattle winning as well at the three spot.
67:11But I think them being so low on the confidence meter sort of gives respect to what I think about the 49ers
67:18and how good they are this season. I think there's only two teams in the NFL that I would take to beat the 49ers right now.
67:26And they happen to be playing one of them.
67:29Seattle and then Jacksonville is the other one. Those two teams are the one and two teams, in my opinion, in the NFL.
67:36And then I put the Niners at number three.
67:39Brock Purdy is truly playing at an MVP level.
67:42However, if you look at the last couple of years, the two worst passing performances for Brock Purdy have come against the Seattle Seahawks and Mike McDonald's defense.
67:51And I think if you go back even further, if you go back to when Mike McDonald was on the Baltimore Ravens
67:58as well, that was also one of Brock Purdy's worst quarterback rating performances as well.
68:02Like Mike McDonald just has Brock Purdy's number, or at least he has in the past.
68:07Doesn't mean he will 100% this upcoming game, but I got to go with the history here.
68:13And I just got to go with one of the few coaches that seems to get the better of Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.
68:20And give me Seattle here. I got them in the three spot.
68:24It's very much picking with your head over picking with your heart.
68:28My heart is telling me this is a wonky one for Seattle.
68:32My head is telling me the history is the history.
68:35So I think it's going to be very close either way.
68:39I thought we were going to be different for the first three games there.
68:43That would have made this pretty exciting. Well, I mean, I think this week is already exciting because we're starting off with
68:50picking different games already and we're only three games in.
68:53We've got two different ones. Let's go with one that I think maybe will be the same on Chargers-Broncos.
68:59I have the Chargers over the Broncos. Okay, I did too.
69:03So we're actually kind of on the stage here.
69:05Really? Come on, man. I'm trying to get one up on you.
69:09So this is, again, going back to the theme that I was talking about a couple of minutes ago where I'm looking
69:16at some of these teams, especially some of these teams that maybe we had higher hopes for going into the season.
69:23And I look at them as this is a back against the wall type of a moment.
69:28I understand that like Denver's a good football team.
69:31Bo Nix hasn't been great for good stretches of the early part of this season.
69:36And then last week, just simply, he did not play quarterback well enough for them to win that game.
69:42All of that to say, like Denver's still the really good and talented football team.
69:47However, if the Chargers go 0-5, brother, we're, I mean, if you're 0-4, you're on the cusp of just packing it in mentally.
69:54You go 0-5, the wheels are going to fall off.
69:57And I just, again, going back to sort of what I was talking about a little bit with the New Orleans Saints,
70:04you've basically got to punch back here or you won't at all for the rest of the season.
70:10So, I'll take the more desperate team. There's not a lot that I can say analysis-wise that would actually point me to
70:17the Chargers winning this game other than Bo Nix continuing to look reserved in how he is scanning the field, where he
70:24is choosing to get rid of the football, and how inexplosive it feels like that offense is overall right now, especially in the early parts of the game.
70:33First half, and then somehow, sometimes it even bleeds into that second half and that third quarter as well.
70:39With how conservative they are. You could look at that and then you could say, hey, if this is the game where
70:46Justin Herbert's deep completion percentage and deep passes turns around, yeah, then I could see a path for the Chargers to win this one.
70:53But I don't know how it's exactly going to happen, but I do think that the Chargers are an extremely desperate football team.
71:01And whatever the best version of this team is, given the injuries that they have, I think we see it on Sunday against Denver.
71:08And if we don't, oh boy, this season's going to get ugly when it comes to win-loss record for the Chargers.
71:15In military families, service is more than a job.
71:18It's a legacy. At American Military University, that legacy can help open new doors through education.
71:23If someone in your family served in the military, you could be eligible for reduced tuition.
71:28Take the next step with flexible online programs built for real life.
71:32Learn more at amu.apus.edu slash military. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters.
71:37Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.
71:40Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.
71:49If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required.
71:53Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.
72:01Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur.
72:07Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine.
72:13Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
72:16Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview?
72:25Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans.
72:31It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline, or workflow you can keep shaping.
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72:49Monday night is made for the moments everyone has an opinion on.
72:52Maybe it's the call that changes the game. Maybe it's the play that looks completely different on replay.
72:58Especially when it's a former quarterback who's breaking it down.
73:01Or maybe it's the decision that everyone will still be debating tomorrow.
73:05With that much to stay locked in for, dinners, they gotta be easy.
73:09Before kickoff, get a DiGiorno pizza ready and settle in.
73:12You get restaurant quality taste. Fresh from your own oven.
73:16So dinner's handled while the matchup unfolds. Stay locked in for the big decisions.
73:20The unexpected turns in every play worth talking about after the final snap.
73:24Monday night is one of the best nights of the week.
73:28And DiGiorno makes sure to meet the moment. Grab DiGiorno on your weekend run so you know dinner is ready when the game is.
73:35No soggy delivery pizza in the fourth quarter. It's not delivery, it's DiGiorno.
73:39What spot did you put it in? Oh, five.
73:42I got this in a five spot right in the middle.
73:46I put it at seven. I'm actually pretty confident in this one.
73:50You madman. So before we started recording this, it came out Patrick Sertan, Pat Bryant, obviously both injured.
73:55Potential IR candidates. It could get laid early in Denver if things keep going this way.
74:00Not to mention their running backs. Their backfield sans Jonah Coleman is just bad.
74:05Respect R.J. Harvey. Getting ten targets and ten catches last week.
74:08Respect R.J. Harvey. But he's a receiver out of the backfield.
74:12As far as just having a consistent... I said respect him.
74:15I said respect him. I'm respecting the role. But as a team, they were negative 19 rushing yards over expected.
74:22They only averaged 3.7 per carry. And even that was generous.
74:25J.K. Dobbins specifically struggled to fight through contact, averaging 3.7, I believe, just against light boxes, let alone heavier boxes.
74:31Plus the Bo-Nicks stuff. Plus the injuries. I just...
74:34I don't... If the Chargers could stop turning it over two and a half times per game on average.
74:40Last week it was four. The week before that they fumbled...
74:44Or two weeks before that they fumbled six times in one game.
74:48If they could just hold on to the ball, this team could not even just beat Denver.
74:53I think capably beat Denver because of everything going on with the Broncos.
74:57But that is the great equalizer here is just the Chargers turnover issue.
75:01So we'll see what happens. But I think the Chargers win and I put it in the seventh spot.
75:07Ooh, the seventh spot. Alright, which one's next? Chicago Green Bay.
75:11I imagine you're going Bears here. This one is in the seventh spot for me.
75:15And I am indeed going the Chicago Bears over the Green Bay Packers.
75:20I will say that it was nice to see Jordan Love play well in the area where I think he really needs to moving forward.
75:28And that is in the short passing game. Remember, we've talked over the last couple of weeks of if the offensive line
75:34is going to be this bad, Jordan Love has to be a lot better in the air yards of zero to ten yards.
75:42Right? The quick game. Getting it out of your hand pretty quickly.
75:46Because that's not the brand of ball Jordan Love wants to play.
75:49Jordan Love wants to play backyard football. He wants to snap the football.
75:54He wants to hold on to it. He wants to scan the field.
75:58And he wants to make the big play. Now, obviously that has its pros and cons.
76:03But I genuinely think that a lot of times, that's a good thing.
76:07I like the way that Jordan Love plays. He plays a brand of football that attacks the field.
76:13And he's not afraid to attempt the passes that you need to, to win games in this league.
76:18But this year, with that offensive line the way that it is, you've got to adapt.
76:23And through the first couple of weeks of the season, he wasn't ready to adapt.
76:28Against the Buccaneers, he was. Now, the Bucs, not a great football team.
76:32We'll talk a little bit more about that when we get to another game that's a little bit higher on my confidence meter here.
76:40A little? Yeah. But, can't give it away, Brett.
76:43The people have got to continue to watch. You can't give it away quite yet.
76:47But I think that it was nice to at least see him really succeed in that short area type of passing game.
76:54Because that's what you're going to need. Now, all of that to say, is it going to be enough to keep up with the Bears?
77:02Sure doesn't feel like it. So, I got Chicago in this one at the 7 spot.
77:07We had mentioned in the show earlier this week that the Bears had more first downs than the Jets.
77:13Jets had plays. Yes. They were basically toying with them in a respectful kind of way.
77:18Because I don't think Ben Johnson wanted to embarrass Aaron Glenn.
77:22Obviously, they're close. They have a history together. But they were doing everything they can to show that this was a very
77:29easy football game for them just without running up the score.
77:32Yeah. And I don't expect them to do the same thing against Green Bay.
77:37But Chicago looks like a true juggernaut. And Green Bay is just banged up in all the worst ways.
77:43I think they still have great elements to them.
77:46I think Jordan Love is a very good quarterback.
77:49You know, obviously, Christian Watson is dynamic. Tucker Craft, one of the best yards after catch weapons at the tight end position.
77:56Evan Williams, we've talked about a couple times. Like, he's playing out of his mind.
78:00I mean, like, the cupboard isn't completely bare. But when you compare it to what the Bears have, I just don't think it's close.
78:08I really don't. So, I put them at the eight spot.
78:11Bears over Packers. Okay. All right. About the same.
78:14About the same for that one, then. It's close.
78:17It's close. I do want you to talk about Dallas-Tampa, though.
78:21Let's just do that now. Ten spot. Not even close.
78:24Barely even thought about it. Barely even thought about it.
78:27Yeah. Obviously, I'm taking the Bucs to beat the Cowboys in the 10 spot.
78:31No, I'm kidding. I'm taking the Cowboys to beat the Buccaneers in the 10 spot on Thursday Night Football.
78:37There's just nothing about this Buccaneers offense that tells me it's going to keep pace with Dallas.
78:43Like, even if you tell me, hey, we're going to get the best game that the Bucs defense has played yet this
78:50season, which I think would be a stretch in and of itself, this Cowboys offense has so many answers to so many different problems.
78:57Whether it's in the passing game, running game, okay, it hasn't always been there, but there have been moments where they've been good with the ground game.
79:06So we know it's possible for them. Some of their offensive linemen, I mean, like Tyler Guyton's really kicking ass.
79:12I mean, like a lot of their offensive linemen are playing really well as a unit, even with some guys in and out of the lineup.
79:21I feel really confident about the offense on Dallas' side of things, and specifically their quarterback and how they're handling things post-week one.
79:28Week one was a flub for sure for this entire team, but they've looked good and Dak has looked good since.
79:34So I've got a lot of confidence in the points that the Cowboys are going to be able to put up.
79:41And for the Buccaneers, I just don't have that faith in Zach Robinson's offense right now for them.
79:47And I don't even think that's mainly a Jalen Daniels problem.
79:50Jalen Daniels looked okay for an undrafted free agent making his first start, but even when Baker Mayfield is out there.
79:57Brett, who do you fear on this Bucs team?
80:00I mean, I like him at Igbuka a lot.
80:03I think Igbuka's a really nice player. Do you fear him?
80:06This team uses motion all the time, and Igbuka's the motion man, and they're going to him all the time.
80:13Teams don't fear him right now. Chris Godwin, love him.
80:16He's not the Chris Godwin from 2017, 2018, 2019.
80:19Teams don't fear Chris Godwin. They don't fear Kate Odden.
80:22They certainly don't fear Bucky Irving right now, who is just not forcing the missed tackles that he did in his rookie
80:29season that made him such a dangerous runner out of the backfield.
80:33There's just not a threat. There's no threats that can really strike fear in defenses.
80:37And I think that's why you're seeing teams, that's why you're seeing the Bucs struggle to move the ball against teams.
80:44It's not just an execution thing. I think defenses believe they can be pretty aggressive in how they play the Bucs because they don't fear they're getting beat.
80:53They fear that, okay, maybe you'll give up a one or two decent chunk plays here and there, but it's not going to be catastrophic stuff.
81:01That's the way that I feel like they're playing right now.
81:05And so I just, I feel the total opposite about the Cowboys offense.
81:09And the game is about who has the most points when the clock hits zero.
81:13Well, I have a lot of faith that that's going to be Dallas.
81:18So I got them in the 10 spot here this week.
81:21It's hard to have more points than the Dallas Cowboys every single week.
81:25And I would say the key difference, to your point, about the Bucs' talent, they have good players.
81:31Mm-hmm. Right? Mecca Buka is good. Bucky Irving is good.
81:34I think Baker Mayfield, when he was healthy, sacks notwithstanding.
81:37I don't even really think that was entirely his fault.
81:40But we've seen Baker be good before. He's not even in this game.
81:44On defense, they have good players. They don't necessarily have the star power that Dallas does, no pun intended, that can make
81:51your offense right even when the play call is wrong.
81:55Right. Right. Yes. Dak Prescott could just look at your defense and say, you got us schematically, but I'm going to make this throw anyway.
82:03Mm-hmm. And CD can look at whatever corner's out there.
82:06He looked at the Texans secondary last week. It was like, Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, I don't care, 17 catches.
82:12George Pickens, he didn't catch that many balls last week, but one of the catches he made deep down the field was just inconscionable.
82:20Yeah. I cannot believe he's able to make some of those tight window catches.
82:24Not to mention, the Cowboys offensive line was beating up the Texans front.
82:28Like, Javante Williams looks like North Carolina Javante Williams this year.
82:32Yeah. Their shade celebration. They just have dudes that tilt the field.
82:36Mm-hmm. And even if I would say the Bucs have more good talent on the roster over the Cowboys, the Cowboys have
82:42more great talent than the Bucs do. Yep. And in a league that kind of you get wins and losses based on
82:49how much great talent you have, it's hard to have more than Dallas.
82:54So I'm taking them as well. But I did put them in the ninth spot.
82:58They were not my tenner for the week. Okay.
83:01Now I got to know just who's the ten.
83:04Now I got to, what's the ten? How about we just go to that game?
83:09Yeah. Yeah. I got to hear it. It's the first one of Sunday overseas.
83:13Jacksonville over the Eagles. That is my ten spot for the week.
83:17I have them at the nine. So there we go.
83:20Okay. So we're just flip-flopped on both of you.
83:23We're just flip-flopping it. Yep. Yep. I have more self-deprecation in my number ten overall team this week.
83:29And you have the team who I would believe.
83:32I would take the Jags. If I was doing a power ranking, we don't do power rankings, but if I was doing
83:39them, I'd have the Jags as my number one team in the NFL.
83:43So I totally get it here with you. They're at worst third.
83:47Like, at worst. And even that's like a hard...
83:49I don't even think they're three. I agree with you there.
83:53And the Eagles right now are a mess. You know, who's their...
83:57Is it Shipley? Is RB1 this week against a very good Jags front?
84:01I think it is Shipley. The better question is, Brett, who's RB2?
84:05Do they have one at this point? That's what I'm saying.
84:08Somebody's got to be RB2. Who is it? I literally have no idea because we're down to our fourth running back.
84:15I only see Will Shipley on the depth chart.
84:18So they're going to have to call somebody up from the practice squad, I guess.
84:22You know, we should get notice of that within...
84:25I mean, they have to travel in a couple days.
84:28I think they have Jaden Blue. Okay. So I think on the practice squad, they have Jaden Blue, Damian Pierce, and Carson Steele.
84:36Okay. One of these young men is going to be taking spell carries behind Will Shipley in that backfield for this game.
84:43They'll be telling stories about them in Delco for generations if they win this game.
84:47My God. God. Yeah. I'm with you. Not to mention, like, the offensive line hasn't exactly been opening holes for Saquon as it is.
84:55And that's Saquon. Right. To me, there's too many issues for Philly's offense.
84:59And there's just too many things going the Jags' way.
85:02Like, even in a game like last week where Trevor Lawrence isn't spectacular.
85:06He's not lighting the world on fire. But he was doing what he needed to do against that Bengals team to continue
85:13to move the ball, score more than 20 points.
85:16The reason why I have the Jags at number one is because pass game on offense, rush game on offense, and then overall defensive performance.
85:24I think they're the most complimentary team in the NFL with what they're able to do.
85:29So, yeah, I got full faith in them to take down a team like Philadelphia who is inefficient to say the least.
85:36All right. Next game here, the other side of Pennsylvania.
85:39Pittsburgh, Indy. What you got? Steelers. It's a one spot.
85:43So you're just as reluctant about it. I mean, it's a one spot.
85:47Dude, the Steelers and the Colts are, to me, the most we play to this level of football every single week.
85:53If you happen to play at this level, guess what?
85:57Congrats on the dub. If you happen to play at this level, we got the better of you.
86:02They both play right here. If this game ends in a tie, I would be not surprised at all whatsoever.
86:09Do we get points if they tie? That's how I feel.
86:12I get points because I'm calling it out here if they tie.
86:16I'm saying I get points if they tie this game.
86:19But, yeah, I'll take the Steelers. I think that I've seen at moments, right, like the Steelers' passing attack at times has
86:26been a little bit more explosive, certainly without Alec Pierce than the Colts' passing attack has been.
86:31They struggled with play action. They struggled just with passing yards that were beyond five yards down the field last week, honestly.
86:38The ground game can always be a decent factor for them.
86:42But these are two teams, Brett, that just honestly, the reason why I have it at the one spot is because I see these teams so similarly.
86:50They just play their same brand of football every single week.
86:54But I also have more faith in the Steelers' defensive side of the ball, especially from those guys up front that they have.
87:01So give me the Steelers in this one, but I only have it at the one spot.
87:07I feel like the way the Colts can win right now, just based on how they looked, is to win an irrationally chaotic slop fest.
87:14And they're getting into an irrationally chaotic slop fest with the kings of the irrationally chaotic slop fest.
87:20So I'm going to go Pittsburgh here because they love that kind of game.
87:25And I put it at the sixth spot. Whoa!
87:27Whoa! Yeah. Wow! Yeah. Because this is the exact kind of game where it's like, oh, welcome to hell, buddy.
87:34This is our apartment. You're staying here. We're leasing it out to you.
87:38But this is our building. Welcome. The landlords of slop games.
87:41That's what you just called the Pittsburgh Steelers. The slumlords of slop town.
87:46That's what the Steelers are. They are so good at winning those kind of games.
87:50And I just, I don't think the Colts, it's like an amateur going up against a professional.
87:56Okay. All right. Can't do it. Can't do it.
87:59Baltimore, Atlanta. This game was super fascinating to me before the Lamar ankle injury in the second half.
88:04Because based on what we saw from Atlanta in week four, and then obviously in week five, I kind of had this
88:11one circled on the calendar for this coming week.
88:14And then Lamar got injured. Atlanta still looked like what Atlanta did a week ago.
88:19And so there's like a little bit of shine off this game because I was so fascinated to see one of the
88:26four best offenses in the NFL go up against a very plucky isn't the right word.
88:31Underrated, unheralded Falcons. Like even for what we've seen in the last couple weeks in primetime, I still feel like people aren't
88:38realizing like how good this Falcons defense has been.
88:41Um, so go, you know, as far as strength on strength, I thought that was a fascinating matchup.
88:46Not to mention Bijan, uh, and Penix and Drake London against, you know, this Jesse Minner defense.
88:52I, there were so many elements of this matchup that I was really excited for.
88:57And then Lamar got injured. So there's a little bit of shine off of it.
89:01I still think it'll be an entertaining game, but overall, because it's Snoop and not Lamar, give me the Falcons.
89:08And I put that at the four spot. Okay.
89:11Um, full transparency. I filled out these games before I really saw that Lamar, you know, is going to have an outside chance to start in this game.
89:19Um, and because you've chosen to mention this game at near the end of the episode here, I don't have a lot
89:26of flexibility to change it up or down. So give me the Baltimore Ravens.
89:31Oh God. Give me Snoop Huntley, pro bowl quarterback over the Atlanta Falcons.
89:35At the eight spot, baby. Oh God. Give me the Baltimore Ravens.
89:39At the eight spot. Oh no. I'm taking it.
89:42Look, look, look, listen, listen. The Baltimore Ravens, one of the better outside zone rushing teams in the NFL, even with the
89:49injuries that they have on their offensive line. King Henry's been fantastic at it.
89:53They got Zay Flowers back. He's a yards after catch monster.
89:57Snoop Huntley, may I say again, a pro bowl quarterback.
90:00Respect the name. Thank you. Oh my God. And I'm just having to believe that everything we saw from the Falcons over
90:07the last two weeks has been utter fabricated garbage.
90:09And a Fugazi at the highest level. So give me the Ravens.
90:13At the eight spot. Buddy, I'm not doubling down.
90:16I'm tripling down. Oh man, this is going to go really awful for one of us.
90:21I don't know who yet. You know the scene in Casino Royale where he's just like, hey, I'm out of chips.
90:28And he's like, oh, can I buy in more?
90:31He's like, no, you can't. And he just pulls out his car keys and he just puts the car keys in the pot.
90:38That's basically what I did with the Ravens there.
90:41I was just like, oh, I don't have any more money.
90:44Here's my car keys on the table. See, I thought it was going to be the other scene from Casino Royale where
90:51you're dying and suffocating to death in the car.
90:54Grasping for the defibrillator. Hoping somebody can come save you.
90:57Oh my Lord, Trevor. Well, where do you have them?
91:01We are not going to be tied next week.
91:03Wait, what do you have? Well, you have the Falcons where?
91:07The four? I have the Falcons at the four spot.
91:10The four spot, okay. So that's a 12-point swing.
91:13We have a lot of swings in this. This is where the game is getting for real.
91:18Because we have, I don't even know, like five different games.
91:22We're just picking different opponents. But then we also are sort of all over the place.
91:27Zero shot. We're anywhere near each other after this one.
91:30Zero shot. Yeah, that's what this game is all about, baby.
91:34Let's go. Well, the last game I thought was fairly close.
91:37But after today so far, maybe it's not. Buffalo, LA?
91:40I have this at the two spot. Okay. I suppose I could have switched this with the eight spot if I wanted to.
91:47But I have the Rams winning this game over Buffalo.
91:51But to be honest, it's just a coin flip type of a game.
91:55And to me, the answer is very simple on who wins this game.
91:59Does Josh Allen turn the ball over? If he does, Rams probably win.
92:03Very high chance. If Josh Allen doesn't have turnovers, Bills win.
92:06And that's basically my oversimplified Bills script every single time.
92:10Because I think the Bills have the ability to play really well up front.
92:14I think they have a good run game. Keon Coleman's coming alive in that offense.
92:19And it's just, do they turn the ball over?
92:22And if they don't, I think they've got a lot on both sides of the ball to beat you.
92:28And I'm still worried about the Rams. I am.
92:31I know that, hey, it's a comeback win against the Eagles.
92:34They're sitting here at 2-2. It looks a lot better than 1-3.
92:38But, Brett, it took a team botching a goal line series and going 0-12 on third down for you to just win at the end?
92:46I still don't love that. It's the turnovers, man.
92:49It's the turnovers. I still don't love that. So, anyway, I'm taking the Rams, but I got it at my two spot this week.
92:56So, I took Buffalo. Okay. We are so different.
92:59We are so different. One of us is getting 40 points and the other is getting 10.
93:05Yeah, 100%. Yes, yes, yeah, yeah. Especially if one of us misses the game.
93:09Or both of us are getting, like, 18. Here's my reasoning for that, though.
93:13And I accept all of your points. It's kind of the same thing for Buffalo.
93:18It comes down to turnovers. I guarantee the people watching this game at home are going to see four of the most
93:25ridiculous throws of the entire season in this game.
93:28No question. No question. It's going to be unbelievable cinema watching these guys go toe-to-toe.
93:33You're also going to see, at minimum, one of the dumbest turnovers you've ever seen.
93:37Because they just can't stop doing it. That's also true.
93:41The fact that Josh Allen got away with that, like, flip to save the safety, which I'm still not sure why that wasn't intentional grounding.
93:49That was classic Josh Allen of, like, oh, the devil on his shoulder is still there, and he's getting louder.
93:55And Matthew Stafford also throwing, like, two bad picks in the first half of that Eagles game.
94:00One of them is going to have a really bad turnover, and that's probably going to determine who wins and who loses.
94:07I just don't know which one is going to do it, or maybe they're both going to do it, which one's going to do it twice.
94:16But it's going to happen. I chose Buffalo. Honestly, I flipped a coin, if I'm being real about it.
94:22I literally flipped a coin for this one. I don't have a great reason, because both these teams are very similar in
94:29terms of their strengths and of their weaknesses. I put it at the three spot just because I felt even less confident about New England and Minnesota.
94:37But it's about as close to a toss-up as it gets.
94:41There we go. So, ten games in very different orders with very different winners, it feels like, at least compared to the last couple of weeks.
94:49So, this is going to be a fun one to monitor.
94:52I hope you guys enjoy all of these games and some of the ones that we didn't mention as well.
94:59As we said at the top of the show, get in on the action as well.
95:04Give us your ten game picks here. Give us the confidence in which you have with these games.
95:09We'll keep score, and we'll shout you out. If you have a really good week, we'll shout you out at the top of the show.
95:17We went through a ton of stuff here on NFL Pro.
95:21We went through the entire quarterly report. We took a look at some players that are under the radar, some teams that
95:28have been shining, and obviously brought it to some game picks as well.
95:32We appreciate you guys watching. We know this was a beast of a show.
95:36Shout out to everybody behind the scenes who puts it on for us.
95:40Everybody at NextGenStats who powers everything that we talk about here.
95:44Total team effort every single week. But, man, for all the information that we threw at you guys, certainly this week as well.
95:51So, we appreciate all the help on this one.
95:54Appreciate you guys watching. We'll see you guys next time.
95:57Thank you for listening to our Q1 quarterly report.
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