The Special Teams Revolution + Week 4's Biggest Matchups | NFL Pro

Rodgers just absolutely lit up the Bengals defense last week playing a lot of single high cover 1 cover 3 stuff, providing tape on how to beat the Bengals defense.

Nix has shown the ability to win close fourth-quarter games but struggles to keep pace with elite offenses over a full game. Against the Rams, his yards per attempt was 3.9 in the first three quarters versus 9.9 in the fourth quarter, and he completed less than 50% of his passes in that quarter (4 of 9), with the big yardage coming from back-to-back throws where the Rams blew coverage. The source expresses concern that Nix cannot play poorly for 45-50 minutes and expect to keep up with Purdy; he must play well from the first quarter on and cannot save it for the fourth quarter against an opponent of this caliber, or risk getting blown out like the Chiefs game in Week 1.

Bo Nix has been objectively bad in quarters one through three despite having good fourth quarters; the source notes that quarters one through three still matter a lot. When compared to Brock Purdy's MVP-caliber play, the gap between the two quarterbacks is so large that the source does not believe Denver can overcome it in Week 4 against San Francisco, even with Denver's defensive adjustments.

Brock Bowers is operating as a wide receiver in name only, not a traditional tight end; he ran 33 routes last week with 25 of them from the slot or out wide (76% of routes), up from 53.2% last year. Per NextGenStats, he was aligned out wide or in the slot on all of his receptions. This represents a historic deployment for Clint Kubiak, who has never before deployed a tight end detached from the formation on at least 50% of snaps as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Bowers' 0.10 EPA per play when on the field is higher than Jackson Smith-Njigba, Tee Higgins, and Jamar Chase, and his 0.25 EPA per route run is sixth most in the NFL and most among tight ends with 20+ routes. His 0.66 EPA per target ranks seventh among tight ends with 5+ targets. He has been Kirk Cousins' best friend throughout the year.

Brock Bowers has been awesome when on the field, especially last week when he was the focal point of the Raiders passing game; however, the Chiefs may deploy L'Jarius Sneed in one-on-one coverage against him, which could reduce his production ease compared to prior weeks, though Bowers will still get his.

Purdy is playing at an elite level with a 64% success rate this season (highest in NFL), leading every quarterback since entering the league in 2023 with a career 52.6% success rate and the only QB with multiple 50%+ seasons in that span. The 49ers offense has scored touchdowns on 48.1% of drives this year, the highest through three weeks since at least 2000, representing the most effective offense Kyle Shanahan has ever coordinated. Purdy's EPA per dropback leads the NFL overall (0.44), is most in the NFL in intermediate areas, and he has 152 total yards over the middle of the field, most in the NFL. The source compares Kyle Shanahan's confidence in Purdy to Matt Ryan's MVP-caliber 2016 season.

Purdy is playing at an MVP-caliber level; the source believes he is the MVP frontrunner right now. The 49ers offense has put up touchdown drives at a rate higher than every other team in every other season in the first three weeks of a year since at least 2000, described as historic execution. Purdy's performance is so strong that the source rates San Francisco's win probability at 7 (high confidence) despite Denver's defensive strengths, arguing the gap between Purdy and Bo Nix is so large Denver cannot overcome it.

Stroud has had a nice year but the Texans have had problems up front, especially trying to run the ball, which has cropped up again this year. After the game, Stroud said in the presser that they weren't aggressive and didn't push the ball the way they needed to; the team is bad in short yarded situations on the ground, particularly in third and short and fourth and short situations, making the easy stuff seem harder and the more difficult stuff just not seem feasible with the current health of the roster.

Drake May is struggling significantly in his rookie season; he 'can't buy a deep completion' and 'certainly can't buy a red zone touchdown.' All six of his interceptions have come when holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds while looking deep downfield, indicating a mental/decision-making issue rather than schematic. His completion percentage over-expected on vertical routes is negative this year versus plus-13.7% last year in college, and he is attempting more deep shots (21.3% vs 19.7%) but converting them at a lower rate, leaving the offense without its primary weapon.

Drake Maye's quarterback play has reduced both the Patriots' floor and ceiling; the source expresses zero confidence in the Patriots winning against Buffalo, attributing this to Maye's inability to raise the team's performance in a quarterback-driven league, with his play capping the ceiling at knee height this year.

Jalen Hurts has the opposite problem from Matthew Stafford when it comes to handling pressure; the Eagles are using more bodies in protection with him because he clearly doesn't trust his protection. The source suggests that the Eagles feel compelled to make Hurts more comfortable with extra protectors because he is not handling pressure as well as he probably should for a quarterback as veteran as he is. This comes down to trust, and both Stafford and Hurts have issues with pressure right now, just in different ways. The quarterback that figures it out first will likely win the Eagles-Rams matchup.

James Cook ran effectively between the tackles for the Bills in Week 3 against the Chargers, providing a strong ground game option. The source highlights that 'when the Bills were able to run the ball the way that they could between the tackles last week with James Cook, you got an answer for everything,' indicating his role as a key part of the Bills' offensive balance and success.

Higgins is out with a long-term injury, which has impacted the Texans' ability to execute their offense and be aggressive downfield.

Josh Allen is performing at an elite level through three weeks; the source notes he 'looked absolutely unstoppable' in the two games prior to Week 3, and he is 'just on another planet at this point' compared to Drake May. His performance against the Chargers included two interceptions thrown into two-high safety shells and four-deep coverages, but he still led the Bills to victory despite a minus-four turnover differential, demonstrating his ability to overcome adversity.

Justin Herbert has really struggled this season; the source states it would have to be by far the best game of his season for the Chargers to keep the Seattle matchup close or upset them, indicating significant concerns about his performance level and the Chargers' offensive capability.

Kenneth Walker has forced 41 missed tackles so far this season, which is 12 more than the next closest player in the NFL—an absurd differential that highlights his elite elusiveness and ball security. The source notes that Walker is on a different planet right now, exemplified by a recent play where he secured the ball with perfect fundamentals after a peanut punch attempt, demonstrating the kind of high-level technique and instinct that stems from foundational work. Walker's matchup against the Raiders this week is notable because the Raiders have a 12.5% missed tackle rate (13th lowest in NFL), better than their 13.9% last year, and allow only 5 yards per missed tackle (10th fewest), suggesting they have good rally-and-finish discipline. However, the Raiders have also forced 10 fumbles in three weeks, indicating they are aggressive in trying to punch the ball.

Kenneth Walker has been amazing for the Chiefs this season and is central to their rushing offense strategy; the source notes that if the Raiders can remotely contain Walker and force Kansas City into a one-dimensional pass-heavy mode, it would significantly impact the Chiefs' ability to win, suggesting Walker's production and role are critical to Kansas City's offensive success.

Kenneth Walker has been complimentary to the Chiefs offense in a way that matters for their matchup strategy; the source emphasizes Walker's role in how Kansas City operates and the stress his presence puts on young Raiders defenders.

Kirk Cousins and the Raiders offense will face a resurgent Chiefs defense that is top three in total EPA earned this season and features three corners capable of matching up on Brock Bowers. The Chiefs' defensive scheme, led by Steve Spagnuolo, is expected to deploy cornerbacks directly on Bowers rather than traditional linebacker or safety coverage, which could neutralize Bowers' primary advantage. The Raiders' special teams advantage (starting field position at 39.9 yard line, best in NFL) may be dialed back against the Chiefs' 11th-best special teams unit, putting more pressure on Cousins and the offense to generate real yards rather than hidden yards. The source notes that Cousins will need to rely on Bowers and other receivers to make up the difference if the special teams advantage is neutralized.

Treadwell set up a game-winning field goal against the Texans defense, highlighting the Texans' defensive inconsistency in clutch moments.

Matthew Stafford's performance under pressure has deteriorated significantly in 2024; his quarterback rating under pressure dropped from 86 last year (with 5 TDs, 0 INTs) to 28.8 this season. The source identifies this as 'the major issue' for the Rams offense, suggesting Stafford does not look the same when facing defensive pressure, which is a critical concern heading into Week 4 against the Eagles.

Stafford's performance under pressure has deteriorated significantly this season; his quarterback rating under pressure dropped from 86.0 last year to 28.8 this year, a dramatic decline that the source attributes to both Puka Nakua's absence and Stafford's own decision-making. Last year when Nakua was on the field, Stafford's pressure rating was 83.0; when Nakua was off the field, it dipped to 63.4. This year, even with Nakua available, the rating is 4.1, suggesting Stafford is not trusting his options and not getting the ball out quickly enough. Against the Eagles' 39.2% pressure rate (ninth highest in NFL), Stafford's slower release time (2.7-2.8 seconds versus Keenan Allen's sub-2.5 seconds) will be exposed, and the source warns that the MVP of last year must play better under pressure or the Rams will struggle more than expected.

Patrick Mahomes is a key reason the Chiefs are top three in total EPA earned this season, as the team maintains balance between Mahomes' passing and Kenneth Walker's rushing attack. The source highlights the Chiefs' balanced offensive approach as a major strength heading into their matchup against the 3-0 Raiders.

Nakua's absence has been a significant factor in Stafford's struggles under pressure this season. Last year, when Nakua was on the field and Stafford faced pressure, his quarterback rating was 83.0; when Nakua was off the field, it dropped to 63.4—a 19.6-point differential. This year, Nakua has barely been on the field, and the on-off splits show a quarterback rating of only 4.1 when he is out there, though the source notes this is a small sample size. The source characterizes Nakua as a security blanket for Stafford under pressure, particularly valuable against zone blitzes and disguised coverages where Nakua's presence helps Stafford process reads faster and trust his options.

The source dismisses Rasheed Rice as a dynamic downfield receiver for the Chiefs, stating 'I don't think Rasheed Rice counts' when discussing whether Kansas City has a true dynamic receiver threat; this suggests Rice is not viewed as a primary deep-threat option in the Chiefs' passing game.

Sam Darnold nearly reached 400 passing yards in Seattle's loss to Washington despite the team turning the ball over three times, showing strong individual passing production even in a game where turnovers and defensive touchdowns determined the outcome.

Lawrence has been excellent against zone coverage through the first three weeks, showing confidence to make any throw especially in the red zone where space is at a premium. However, the Bengals play man coverage at a top-8 rate in the NFL this season, which could present a challenge; Lawrence's EPA per dropback against man is 0.18 versus 0.25 against zone. In the Week 2 game against Denver, Lawrence struggled in the second half when the Broncos switched to more man coverage. The source notes that Aaron Rodgers just carved up the Bengals defense last week (8 for 15, 149 yards, 2 TDs, 0.54 EPA per dropback) by hanging onto the ball and making plays happen, suggesting the Bengals' vulnerability to explosive plays despite their man coverage preference.

Lawrence has been tearing it up specifically against zone coverage and has been phenomenal at attacking zone coverages this season; however, he's gotten more trouble with man coverage, as evidenced by his struggles in the second half of the Denver Broncos game when they switched to play a lot more man. The Bengals play man coverage at a top 8 rate in the NFL so far this season, so they could lean into what Lawrence hasn't been as stellar at this season; however, Aaron Rodgers just absolutely lit up this Bengals defense last week playing a lot of that single high cover 1 cover 3 stuff, so the tape is out there on how to beat it.