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Top-10 Takeaways - Podfather Returns for a Devaughn Vele Dance Party

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 14, 2026
Published
Mon, September 14, 2026
52
Player insights
44
Players mentioned
Topics
Parker WashingtonBijan RobinsonDalton KincaidDavid MontgomeryKyle PittsMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael WilsonAdonai MitchellAlec PierceAmari CooperBryce LanceBucky IrvingCaleb DouglasCam Ward
Player analysis

Player insights

52

Adonai Mitchell

PositiveBreakout5:13

Matt Kelley views Adonai Mitchell as a player to monitor for future growth, especially given the potential for increased opportunity if Amari Cooper misses time due to his foot and ankle injury. Kelley considers Mitchell's Week 1 performance a sign of good things to come.

Insight page

Alec Pierce

NegativeUsage25:15

Matt Kelley notes that Alec Pierce played over 50% of snaps in Week 1 but is dealing with a wrist injury. Kelley expects his route participation to increase once he is healthy, which could further crowd the target distribution in the Colts' offense.

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Amari Cooper

NegativeInjury6:53

Matt Kelley notes that Amari Cooper picked up a foot and ankle injury in Week 1, which needs to be monitored as it could impact his availability and open up opportunities for teammates like Adonai Mitchell.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveUsage3:25

Matt Kelley identifies Bijan Robinson as a reliable fantasy asset who consistently earns 20-plus touches and delivers double-digit fantasy points, contrasting his stability with the volatility of the wide receiver position.

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PositiveProjection45:34

Matt Kelley views Bijan Robinson as an elite asset capable of 30-point games, arguing that trading for him by packaging players like Chase Brown and David Montgomery is a winning move because Bijan's individual upside exceeds the combined production of the package.

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Bryce Lance

PositiveBreakout70:47

Matt Kelley highlights Bryce Lance as a standout rookie who is commanding snaps and targets as a day-three pick, which is rare and highly encouraging.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeUsage52:04

Matt Kelley expresses concern over Bucky Irving's usage, specifically his lack of target command and the fact that Chris Rodriguez ran more routes than him in Week 1. He is a sell-high in dynasty.

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Caleb Douglas

PositiveBreakout68:11

Matt Kelley confirms Caleb Douglas is the team's WR1, citing his 5-catch, 94-yard performance in Week 1. He is a buy-high candidate.

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Cam Ward

NegativeValue8:33

Matt Kelley expresses deep concern regarding Cam Ward's performance, describing it as pathetic and a warning signal for dynasty managers. While Kelley advises that managers are currently paralyzed and should hold rather than sell low, he notes that Ward's dynasty ranking will be dropping.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveBreakout17:02

Matt Kelley suggests that Carnell Tate will improve as he develops in his second year, noting that the lack of continuity in college might have hindered his early transition, but he remains a player to watch for growth.

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Chris Godwin

NegativeUsage38:38

Godwin played 49 of 57 snaps and was super efficient when targeted, but his fantasy output was limited by the team running only 52 plays due to three Baker Mayfield fumbles forced by the Bengals pass rush.

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Chris Rodriguez

PositiveUsage53:07

Matt Kelley identifies Chris Rodriguez as a buy-low candidate, noting he ran more routes than Bucky Irving in Week 1 and is active inside the 20-yard line.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveUsage3:29

Matt Kelley lists Christian McCaffrey among the elite, consistent running backs who can be relied upon for high volume and fantasy production, contrasting them with the volatility of wide receivers.

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Chuba Hubbard

NegativeBust87:58

Matt Kelley identifies Chuba Hubbard as a sell-high candidate, noting that Jonathan Brooks looked explosive and will likely eat into Hubbard's snap share as he gets healthier.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveUsage68:31

Matt Kelley labels Colson Loveland the most obvious buy-low candidate, citing his 92% route participation rate as a key indicator of future fantasy success despite a slow start.

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Cooper Kupp

NegativeUsage22:26

Matt Kelley notes that Cooper Kupp should have had a touchdown in Week 1 and showed signs of being the clear number two wide receiver on his team, suggesting that he was under-projected for target share.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveProjection58:44

Matt Kelley predicts Dallas Goedert will lead all tight ends in touchdowns, citing his role as the primary red-zone option in an offense lacking size at wide receiver.

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Dalton Kincaid

NegativeValue64:39

Matt Kelley identifies Dalton Kincaid as a top-five tight end candidate and a strong buy-low target; despite a 130-yard performance, the lack of a touchdown allows managers to acquire him from owners who may view him as a sell-high candidate.

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PositiveBreakout92:18

Matt Kelley identifies Dalton Kincaid as a buy-high candidate, noting his route participation increased to 69% and he commanded a 20%+ target share. He projects him as a top-five tight end.

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David Montgomery

PositiveValue45:50

Matt Kelley remains highly bullish on David Montgomery, dismissing 'dead zone' concerns and citing his role as a key reason for fantasy success, despite disagreements with other analysts.

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PositiveUsage50:20

Matt Kelley notes that David Montgomery remains a preferred option over Bucky Irving due to his touchdown equity, which played out as expected in Week 1.

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De'Von Achane

NegativeUsage57:42

Matt Kelley notes that De'Von Achane is on pace for 85 targets, but his production is capped by touchdown vulturing from Malik Willis. He is a volatile boom-bust player.

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Geno Smith

PositiveProjection5:03

Matt Kelley remains very encouraged by Geno Smith's performance despite a lack of touchdowns in Week 1. Smith was efficient (19-of-24 for 215 yards) and Kelley believes he will have high-scoring games in the future, particularly when facing opponents that force a shootout.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection2:30

Matt Kelley notes that despite a poor Week 1 performance, Ja'Marr Chase remains a great process play. He highlights that wide receiver production is inherently volatile and points to Chase's similar slow start in Week 1 of the previous season before he went on to have a productive year. Kelley advises that if anyone is selling, you should be buying, though he notes the market is not actually selling low.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveUsage3:29

Matt Kelley categorizes Jahmyr Gibbs as a reliable, high-floor fantasy player who consistently earns significant volume and delivers fantasy points, unlike the more volatile wide receiver position.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveUsage43:46

Matt Kelley notes that many fantasy managers have significant exposure to Jalen Coker, and his usage is encouraging despite Michael Wilson not putting up a huge number.

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Jalen McMillan

PositiveUsage39:18

McMillan out-targeted Chris Godwin 6 to 4 while dealing with turf toe, indicating significant involvement in the Buccaneers' offense.

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Josh Cameron

PositiveUsage72:46

Matt Kelley notes Josh Cameron commanded targets and has an 88th-percentile speed score, making him an encouraging prospect despite being a sixth-round pick.

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Josh Downs

PositiveValue25:54

Matt Kelley identifies Josh Downs as a buy-low candidate, noting that he was the featured weapon on the Colts' first drive. While Kelley acknowledges that Keenan Allen's presence and the team's run-first offense limit his ceiling, he remains bullish on Downs' talent.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeValue65:12

Matt Kelley remains bullish on Justin Herbert as a buy-low target, noting his arm talent and the offensive line's ability to nullify strong defensive fronts. Kelley argues Herbert is a better value than Joe Burrow because managers are more likely to panic-sell Herbert after a single poor outing.

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Kayshon Boutte

PositiveSleeper34:02

Matt Kelley admits he was too early on Kayshon Boutte as a streamer in Week 1 because the player was still learning the offense and only played 36 of 79 snaps. However, Kelley maintains that Boutte is a quality Hail Mary streamer for future weeks.

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Keenan Allen

PositiveUsage22:22

Matt Kelley admits to a process error in under-projecting Keenan Allen's target share, noting that Allen remains a significant "problem" for younger receivers like Josh Downs. Despite his age and poor preseason appearance, Allen's six targets in Week 1 prove he is still a factor in the offense.

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Kenyon Sadiq

PositiveUsage69:36

Kenyon Sadiq ran a route on 46% of Geno Smith's dropbacks in Week 1, which Matt Kelley views as a positive sign given Sadiq's recovery from a groin hernia; Kelley expects this usage to increase.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveValue48:34

Matt Kelley identifies Kyle Pitts as a 'buy low' candidate, noting that while he is prone to zero-point weeks due to volatility, his upside remains high and his outlook will improve once Michael Penix Jr. takes over.

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PositiveValue69:12

Matt Kelley describes Kyle Pitts as a 'sports car' of a tight end and advises acquiring him before Michael Penix potentially sees the field, though he notes managers might be able to wait one more week for a potential buy-low window.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeInjury3:51

Matt Kelley expresses significant concern regarding Kyler Murray, who suffered a concussion in Week 1. Kelley notes that while the process was good, the injury outcome is concerning compared to other players who simply suffered from variance.

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Luther Burden

PositiveUsage68:13

Matt Kelley highlights Luther Burden as a 'sports car' player who is only going to get better; while the fantasy points and spike week did not materialize in Week 1, his participation (five targets on five routes) is the primary positive indicator.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeBust51:53

Matt Kelley classifies Marvin Harrison Jr. as a 'bad receiver' based on practice and game performance, arguing he is overvalued compared to players like Michael Wilson.

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NegativeValue90:19

Matt Kelley suggests Marvin Harrison Jr. is a potential sell-low candidate if you can find a league mate who still values his name brand.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveUsage44:46

Matt Kelley highlights that Michael Wilson's air yards and target volume are encouraging, even though his raw production was not massive in the recent game.

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PositiveBreakout52:15

Matt Kelley highlights Michael Wilson as a superior player to Marvin Harrison Jr., noting that Wilson earned more air yards in Week 1 and has significant deep-threat upside.

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Mike Gesicki

PositiveUsage30:18

Matt Kelley points to Mike Gesicki as a viable streaming option, noting that he was the leading scorer for the Bengals in Week 1, which proves that even in offenses with many mouths to feed, individual players can still produce.

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Parker Washington

PositiveSleeper18:34

Matt Kelley highlights Parker Washington as a former undrafted rookie who is poised for a breakout season, suggesting that most fantasy managers are currently overlooking him.

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NegativeRole49:58

Matt Kelley identifies Parker Washington as the primary receiver to watch in Jacksonville, noting that Brian Thomas Jr.'s shoulder injury is not a long-term concern but that Washington is the focal point.

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PositiveBreakout56:50

Matt Kelley is extremely high on Parker Washington, predicting he will eventually earn a Jerry Rice comparison and outperform Brian Thomas Jr.

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Raheim Sanders

PositiveSleeper81:26

Matt Kelley recommends adding Raheem Sanders as a stash, noting he is commanding targets and could be a valuable handcuff if Dylan Sampson misses time.

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Rico Dowdle

PositiveUsage70:02

Matt Kelley identifies Rico Dowdle as the number one buy-low candidate, highlighting that he played 39 of 67 snaps compared to Jalen Warren's 25 and ran routes 17% more often than Warren; Kelley emphasizes that the usage is there even if the fantasy points were not.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeUsage62:58

Matt Kelley is concerned about Saquon Barkley due to the degradation of the Eagles' offensive line, noting Barkley had a second-percentile yards-before-contact rate in Week 1.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveUsage68:43

Matt Kelley advocates buying low on Terry McLaurin, noting he ran 10 more routes than Stefan Diggs in Week 1 and is playing in an offense with Jayden Daniels under center; Kelley views him as a 'sports car' player who will have big weeks.

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Travis Etienne

NegativeUsage55:00

Matt Kelley is concerned about Travis Etienne's snap share (under 60%) and the fact that he was scripted off the field for Kendre Miller. He is entertaining trade offers for Etienne.

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Tyrone Tracy

NegativeUsage74:52

Matt Kelley is disappointed by Tyrone Tracy's lack of usage, noting he had zero targets compared to Devin Singletary's four, making him currently cuttable in many formats.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection60:16

Matt Kelley maintains a positive outlook on Zay Flowers as a top-five fantasy receiver, noting that his recent hamstring injury is not serious and he may only miss one week.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

848
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1:02Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
1:05They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
1:11I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together?
1:14It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
1:20Nationwide Investment Services Corporation. Nationwide is on your side.
1:23Nationwide is on your side. I think this is the show that you need on Mondays.
1:28This is going to bring it all together. Everything you need to know, everything that might be actionable, curiosity, a fringe player
1:35that you need to be aware of, a good player that's actually in danger.
1:40We will cover it all today. And we're going to dive right in right now.
1:45It starts with good process, bad outcome. In this case, the best process and the worst outcome.
1:50And that was clearly Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase is a great process.
1:54Jamar Chase is going to be great. Jamar Chase is here to remind us that the wide receiver position is just volatile.
2:01It just, this happens. You cannot set your watch by B.
2:05John Robinson always getting 20 plus touches and always delivering 10 plus fantasy points.
2:09That's B. John. That's Jameer Gibbs. That's Christian McCaffrey.
2:12That's not Jamar Chase. That's not the wide receiver position.
2:15Last year in week one against Cleveland, Jamar Chase put up 4.6 points and then he smashed for the rest of the year.
2:23So it's fine. Jamar Chase. If anyone's selling, you're buying low, but no one's selling low.
2:28No one's buying low. It's not even that low.
2:31It's not a big deal. Another player where you had great process and the worst possible outcome, the cartoonish bad outcome for me personally was Kyler Murray.
2:40Kyler Murray led our plays of the week. He was on the featured image, lifting weights.
2:45He's back all business and he gets a concussion and Carson Wentz, who was inferior to him, puts up 25 fantasy points on negative one yards rushing.
2:53And I'm losing my mind watching this. I'm losing it.
2:57I'm dead. I can't believe this is happening. I'm like week one.
3:00Really? This is what football. Okay. Okay. Okay. Cool.
3:03Cool. We also suggested a desperation stream of Gino Smith that he's playable in super flex.
3:09Okay. He went out and he put up 19 for 24, 215 yards.
3:13Adnan Mitchell, who had also an interesting streamer this week, in spite of the low game total, 17 and a half point game total, the jets crushed it.
3:22They crushed their game. They crushed their implied points by like six.
3:26It was 17 and a half implied points. The game total was like in the high thirties and the implied points for
3:33the jets was 17 and a half. And I said, they're going to smash that.
3:38And they did. And Gino Smith was super efficient.
3:40He just didn't get the touchdown. It went to Brees Hall, right?
3:44Touchdown to Brees Hall. Fine. Process. What? Great process.
3:47Great process. With Gino Smith. Great process with Kyler Murray.
3:50One didn't work out because he got hurt. The other didn't work out because of touchdown variants.
3:56Otherwise, very encouraging. Very encouraging for Adnan Mitchell. Was this a streamer that worked out?
4:01Not really. But six fantasy points in standard leagues, nine fantasy points in PPR leagues could have been worse.
4:07Could have been worse. But it's foreshadowing good results in the future, especially now that Omar Cooper picked up a foot and ankle injury.
4:15So we're going to monitor his recovery from this.
4:17If he misses any time, it's just yet more reason to be in on Addy Mitchell moving forward.
4:23Cam Ward betrayed Gino Smith. Gino Smith would have put up huge numbers.
4:27If there was another quarterback on the other side of that game that could have propelled this game into a shootout, we
4:35would have seen some real DGAV Gino Smith. And we are going to look at the schedule.
4:40There's going to be plenty of games where Gino's facing the bills.
4:44He's going to have to put up points. We're going to see some true DGAV Gino Smith.
4:49And if this baseline that we're starting with is 19 of 24 for 215, just a well-managed, well-executed win, then what does
4:56that mean for future Gino Smith games? It's all very encouraging, even though we didn't get the precise fantasy result that we wanted.
5:04With Kyler Murray, the concussion, that's a little more concerning.
5:07That's like bad luck and we're concerned. Gino Smith, it's bad luck and we're very encouraged by that.
5:13Regarding Cam Ward, he came into the league. The reason why he was the number one pick was his big arm.
5:20He had the big arm, the big cannon arm, was erratic, would not have been the number one overall pick in another
5:27class, but it was a weak QB class. Other quarterbacks have come out with big arms.
5:32I'm thinking about Daniel Jones. I'm thinking about Drew Locke.
5:35I'm thinking about Carson Wentz, the aforementioned Carson Wentz.
5:38These guys all came out with huge cannon arms.
5:41That's one of the reasons why they got drafted, where they did.
5:45Drew Locke was so erratic, he wasn't going to get the premium draft capital.
5:49But Carson Wentz went two overall. Daniel Jones, top 10 pick.
5:53Arm strength was the big reason. Just they looked the part and they had the arm.
5:58And then they were just, the scouts were just a top 10 pick.
6:02And then the league beat that out of them.
6:05And that is very much possible with Cam Ward in that he eventually just doesn't have the courage to push the ball down the field.
6:13He's been burned too many times. And the league just beats the aggressiveness out of him.
6:18And he becomes a meek quarterback. And that's what happens to a lot of guys.
6:23And sometimes they go on to another job and another job and another team, another team.
6:28And then they realize, I'm almost out of the league.
6:32I might as well just air it out. That's what Carson Wentz did.
6:36That's what Geno Smith is doing now. And so it's not over for Cam Ward by any means.
6:41In fact, Cam Ward could just have had a bad game against the Jets.
6:46It's hard to believe, right? That he would put up such a low yards per attempt.
6:51And you just didn't see him pushing the ball down the field hardly at all.
6:56And that's just not why they brought him in.
6:59They brought him there to be a gunslinger, right?
7:02And it's not happening. And it's very much a warning signal for anyone that has Cam Ward and Dynasty.
7:08There's nothing we can do, though. I have some Cam Ward and Dynasty.
7:12We did talk about this in Dynasty Startups that I participated in this offseason.
7:17I wanted more Cam Ward than I could get.
7:20Ended up getting a lot more Shuck and Fernando Mendoza and not in similar ADP zone.
7:25And not as much Cam Ward in startups. So I actually don't.
7:29I looked. I don't have much Cam Ward at all.
7:32But I've been on the bullish side of Cam Ward's career thinking, you know, this guy is eventually going to get weapons and get it figured out.
7:40He has the raw tools. And he has the usually a guy with the raw tools that the league is skeptical.
7:47Like, let's say, Will Levis, Drew Locke. The league's skeptical of these guys.
7:51And so they're like, well, we'll draft him in the early second round.
7:56But we don't trust them with Cam Ward. They trusted him all the way to draft him at the 101.
8:02So for that reason, I have been encouraged and I've been on the glass half full side of Cam Ward.
8:08And now if you have him in Dynasty, you can't really sell him knowing that these guys have a second life.
8:15Sometimes, whether it be Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield. In Dynasty, a guy like Cam Ward and Superflex, you just got to hold and hope.
8:23You can't sell low now. There's so many ways that he could actually deliver several super productive seasons in the future.
8:30You just can't sell low on a guy like Cam Ward right now, even though to flame out that bad, to face plant so absurdly.
8:38And they weren't in that game, right? That game was over.
8:41It was pathetic. It was just a truly pathetic performance.
8:45And to be that pathetic and not be able to put that guy on the block, right?
8:50So like, but can I sell low? A lot of times we say, hey, just be a realist.
8:56Get out while you can. You're not going to get a lot from him right now.
9:01You're not going to get a lot. If you check out the Dynasty rankings on Player Profile, they'll be updated soon.
9:08Cam Ward's coming down, man. He's coming down. We were hoping that the struggles in preseason, there was certainly a possibility.
9:15Especially he got a little bit better as the summer went along.
9:18Started to see some positive reports from beat reporters around the Titans.
9:22And then in this game, a home game against the Jets, it's only going to get harder from here.
9:28So yeah, I am very concerned about Cam Ward, but also paralyzed.
9:32And we're all paralyzed. We can't really do anything in Dynasty with him except hold.
9:37Sure, seasonal leagues, whatever, man. Do whatever you want in seasonal leagues with Cam Ward.
9:42I don't care, right? He's not your number one.
9:45He's probably not even your number two. So if he's a depth piece and you want to let him go, fine.
9:52I don't care. I don't really care what you do in seasonal leagues with Cam Ward.
9:57Oh, but boy, oh boy. It's so different in Dynasty with a guy like Cam Ward versus seasonal leagues.
10:03Cam Ward's a premium asset in Dynasty. And so that's the context where we're like, hey, we need to have a hard conversation about Cam Ward.
10:11And I don't like it. And I'm not here to offer any encouragement.
10:15But I also don't have any advice about how you can manage the situation except to hold and pray and hope.
10:22That's all you can do. Carnell Tate's going to get better as he develops in the league.
10:28It is just his second year. And Cam Ward transferred to Miami.
10:32So he didn't have the smoothest, most continuity in college.
10:35So it's possible that as the year goes along that he starts to figure it out.
10:40We have to hope. Otherwise, even if he doesn't figure it out, we're still stuck.
10:45We're still stuck. You just have to then hope for the Jared Goff career trajectory.
10:50That's all we can do. You can't sell him in Dynasty.
10:53He's unsellable. He's an immovable asset. Like the market is frozen right now in Dynasty for Cam Ward.
10:59That's takeaway number one. And we're more than 10 minutes in.
11:02If we project it out, this is going to be a two-hour show.
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12:11Terms apply. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
12:15They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
12:21I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together, it's a masterpiece.
12:25Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
12:30Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Every game day, you show up for your team.
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12:46Why wait? Takeaway number two is don't dismiss old target competition tethered to bad quarterbacks.
12:50I know it's very specific, but I look back at all of our processes and procedures generating all of our draft kit
12:58rankings, seasonal rankings, cheat sheets, all the things, best ball rankings, on player profiler that you all have come to know and
13:05trust and make a lot of money with. There's one area where I think we needed to rethink our process, and it's on me.
13:12It's 100% on me, and that's that we were too casual dismissing 34-year-old wide receivers on teams that are not prolific.
13:19Two players, we under-projected their target shares for 2026, and that's on me.
13:23I've been burned too many times by 34-year-old wide receivers going to a new team or saying they're coming back reinvigorated, and then nothing.
13:31And they all end up on the Titans somehow, right?
13:34Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Roddy White, all these guys, I was convinced they had something left, and then they didn't, right?
13:42And so with Keenan Allen, six targets, that was a surprise to me.
13:46Cooper Cup should have had a touchdown. Cooper Cup should have been a very pretty, it was called back with a penalty,
13:53but Cooper Cup almost was like, hey, I'm the clear number two wide receiver here, just based on production.
13:59And that surprised me, because we have been team Josh Downs and team Rashid Shahid all offseason, not to a point where
14:06we're drafting them at crazy multiples above their ADP, but in general, I've been getting, like in our staff draft, I got
14:13Rashid Shahid, and we are generally bullish on Josh Downs, that what we saw in 2024 was the real Josh Downs, and
14:20that there's more of that to come, that he is actually explosive, but Keenan Allen is a problem.
14:26He's more of a problem than we projected him to be, and that was a process error that we need to fix.
14:33If this was a prolific offense, it wouldn't much matter.
14:36The problem is, the only time you care about mouths to feed are teams that are in the bottom 10, the lower
14:44volume offenses, the inferior quarterbacks, those teams where you know they're going, they're in the market for a quarterback in the NFL draft next year.
14:52With those teams, it's much harder to squeeze a good wide receiver into a situation where he's going to be able to
14:59get the requisite targets that he needs to put up a wide receiver one season.
15:04Things really have to align pretty well, right? Think about Jackson Smith and Jigba and how little target competition he had last year.
15:11In Indianapolis, Josh Downs is competing with Tyler Warren, a top five tight end.
15:15Alec Pierce comes back, and against all odds, he's active, and he played more than 50% of the snaps.
15:22Now, he did leave with a wrist injury, and he had a soft cast on, so we're going to see what happens with his wrist injury.
15:30My guess is he's going to play through it.
15:33Maybe he misses a game, but he's probably going to play through it.
15:37And Keenan Allen came out of the game healthy.
15:40I just can't believe it. Like, I'm in shock about Keenan Allen in particular.
15:44The six targets to Josh Downs four, together they had 10 targets.
15:48So if you're thinking, Daniel Jones loves to target players like Keenan Allen and Josh Downs, we were right.
15:54It's just when Keenan Allen arrived, did not discount the Josh Downs target share enough.
15:59On the flip side, if you're looking at the glass half full on Josh Downs, if you think he's a buy low,
16:06which he is, he's a buy low because he didn't do anything.
16:10So he's a buy low. He's a good player.
16:13So I think he's a buy low, but I'm not running out screaming, he's the top buy low in the NFL because this Keenan Allen is a problem.
16:22And being part of a run first Daniel Jones offense is not the smoothest path to fantasy production.
16:28So no, I'm not waving the flag for Josh Downs, but I do acknowledge he is a buy low.
16:34He's certainly a three. Is he a throw in now?
16:37I think you certainly want to get him thrown in if you can to any deals because three of Downs, four targets came on the first drive.
16:46And then he just managed one target after that.
16:49And in many ways, that's encouraging. That was the one drive we saw where the Colts were demonstrating maximum competence.
16:55And so for him to be the featured guy in that first drive, when it was planned out, mapped out, right?
17:02They had those plays scripted. That tells me that he is a featured weapon.
17:07And it just didn't work out after that. They were just scrambling around trying to come back.
17:12And it just, the ball didn't go his way.
17:15So I am encouraged. 65% route share for Alec Pierce.
17:18That's only going to go up. The problem is it might go down before it goes up because of the wrist injury.
17:25Okay. But I mean, the Colts offense is just not an epicenter of wide receiver fantasy points.
17:31And as long as Keenan Allen is out here finding soft spots in the zone when they're in the hurry up offense,
17:38and that ball is not going to Josh Downs, that's a problem.
17:42As Pierce starts to increase his route participation rate, once he gets past this wrist problem, that's going to be a problem.
17:49So it's frustrating. It's frustrating to have a good player that is in one of these situations where there just are too
17:56many weapons for a run first team captained by Daniel Jones to get these guys to a place where you're comfortable starting them.
18:03There is a such thing as too many miles to feed.
18:07It is a cliche. It is overused. And the reason it's overused is because it's misapplied when it's a good team.
18:14When it's a prolific offense, there's no such thing as too many miles to feed.
18:18It's silliness. Look at the Bengals. They fed Mike Gusecki this week just fine.
18:23He was their leading scorer. So there's no reason that you can't stream Mike Gusecki one week where you love the matchup
18:30because there's too many miles to feed there in Cincinnati.
18:33That's not a thing in Cincinnati. It is a thing on a team like the run first Seattle Seahawks with Sam Darnold
18:40at quarterback, the run first Indianapolis Colts, a team with an abysmal quarterback play like the Browns.
18:46It's a problem in those situations. Like the Atlanta Falcons currently without Michael Penix.
18:50It's a problem. And whether it's Rashid Jaheed or whether it's Josh Downs, these are very good players that are getting crowded
18:57out of low volume offenses by 34-year-olds that they are better than in every way.
19:02But the team trusts them. And if they're going to make it through camp and the team is going to rest them
19:09in preseason and just make sure that they're healthy for the season when it starts, you can't overproject.
19:15You can't fantasy wish cast a target share onto good players like Josh Downs and Rashid Jaheed if the team offenses aren't going to cooperate.
19:23A Cooper Cup and a Keenan Allen are very much a problem in those situations.
19:28They're much more of a problem than if they had landed on good teams.
19:33And it would have came out in the wash otherwise.
19:36Now, when it comes to the weekly projections, so that was probably our greatest weakness with our seasonal projections was not accounting
19:43for enough target share with the 34-year-old dust receivers on bad teams.
19:47I know it's a very specific criticism, but it's true.
19:50It was a – I was looking at our projections and looking at all the scores coming in and looking at all the usage reports.
19:58And I was talking to Max. He's a whiz kid from Syracuse helping us with managing all these projections.
20:04And I was like, yeah, man. Yeah, we should have given Cooper Cup and Keenan Allen a little more credit.
20:11Even though Keenan Allen had a DUI as soon as he arrived, looking haggard, running a 5-0-40.
20:16Doesn't matter. If he's going to be on the team in week one, you've got to give him a Keenan Allen requisite target share.
20:24And that means you've got to take it away from other players.
20:28That's just the way it works. And when players switch teams, they don't put up 100% snap share or route participation right away.
20:35And so that was my one mistake with the weekly projections and I even made it into my plays of the week
20:42as a super fringe sort of desperation Hail Mary play was Keishon Booty.
20:46I love the matchup against Buffalo. I love the player.
20:50I love his role as an outside playmaker and touchdown scorer.
20:53So that was the rationale, but he didn't play enough snaps.
20:57He only played 36 of 79 snaps because he's still picking up the offense.
21:01He just arrived. So I was too early on a guy like Keishon Booty.
21:06I still believe that he is going to be a quality Hail Mary streamer in the weeks ahead.
21:12It's just that week one was too much to ask for a guy that just arrived.
21:17So that was the, those were the, those were the, the, the seasonal and weekly projection learnings from week one where we're going to get better.
21:25Every year we're trying to get better. The mistakes we made 10 years ago.
21:30I mean, it's a laundry list compared to now, but we all make mistakes.
21:34This was the one area where I think we can improve is better understanding the offensive environments in, in, in these specific
21:41types of teams like the Colts and the Seahawks.
21:44Uh, and then, uh, and, and, and being cautious playing players that are brand new to a team in week one.
21:51The thing is like that, I knew that I just, I knew that already that one.
21:56I didn't have to actually learn. I've known that I was blinded, blinded by my love of booty.
22:02It's true. It's true. I was blinded. I was, I, I was like, this is such a great situation for booty.
22:09Oh my God. I want to get it. I want to find ways to get him in there.
22:14Fringy ways to get him in there. Yeah. Takeaway number three.
22:18And we are rocking. We are 25 minutes in.
22:21We have two takeaways and now the comments are coming in.
22:24We're alive here. Uh, yes, we're back. And, uh, Jalen Coker.
22:28Yes. We're going to talk Jalen Coker. Yes. We're going to talk Colson Loveland.
22:32No doubt. No doubt. Yes. We're going to talk Bijan.
22:36Yes. We're going to talk David Montgomery. Someone's asking if I should trade Jamar Chase or Chase Brown and David Montgomery for Bijan.
22:43We'll cover that later. I have a thought on that.
22:46We'll definitely cover that later. That's a great question.
22:49Chase Brown and David Montgomery for Bijan. Let's all marinate on that.
22:53We'll come back to it. We'll come back to that.
22:56This show has to happen in less than an hour.
22:59We have to go now. We're two takes in and we're already have to go to rapid fire.
23:05I can't believe we're already in rapid fire. Good process, bad result.
23:09Number two. Right? So we talked, we talked about this already, but at the quarterback position, we have another good process, bad result at wide receiver.
23:18And that was Chris Godwin. If you played Chris Godwin thinking this was a great matchup, don't feel bad.
23:24I don't feel bad. This isn't like a correction thing that we're going to get better at.
23:29We're going to, we're going to project Cooper cups week one target share at a higher rate in the future.
23:36Sorry. Right? That's not, that's not it. Okay. That's not what we're doing here.
23:40There's no problem with Chris Godwin. If you played Chris Godwin, he gave you a super efficient four for four week.
23:47It didn't kill you, but it didn't help you.
23:50And the big problem was the Bengals pass rush forced three Baker Mayfield fumbles.
23:54And because of all these turnovers, the bucks only ran 52 plays.
23:58Now, a booka with turf toe out targeted Godwin six to four and a booka was on the field a lot.
24:05So was Godwin. Godwin was not just a slot receiver.
24:08He was on the field for 49 of 57 snaps.
24:11So Godwin was playing a lot. He was super efficient when targeted and the team just ran into a buzzsaw of a Bengals defense.
24:19And the Bengals defense is not a defense that we can just target at will.
24:24That's the bears, Caleb Williams, the God, right? He is going to help propel whatever team is playing the bears.
24:30Hopefully that bears defense that is allowing 37 points to Bryce young.
24:34That's a team. That's the new Bengals. That's the team we're targeting.
24:38Okay. It's not going to be 37 points for the quarterback every week, but we can, we can chase that.
24:45We can chase the Bryce young outcome every single week for every team that plays the bears.
24:50You're just going to want to play everybody against the bears this year.
24:54Not so with the Bengals. The Bengals, this was the Bengals put a stake in the ground and said, no, we're a different team.
25:02Our front seven is actually getting after it this year.
25:05So those are some a good process, bad results, bad process, bad results, all those kinds of things.
25:11Except we didn't talk. We should, we should talk about a bad process bailout.
25:15Stripling. Okay. I checked. We were 17 and a half points behind consensus in best ball on where to draft Stripling.
25:22And we can't victory lap anything because he got hurt.
25:25It was the ultimate bad process bailout. He wasn't even getting snaps and running any routes before the injury.
25:32If you drafted Stripling at his ADP or earlier, that was bad process.
25:36And you don't have to feel any of the consequences because, oh, we got hurt and I'm okay.
25:42It must be nice. Little rip cord. You pull there, all your, all the Stripling fans get to, uh, get to fight
25:49for another day without having to admit any fault whatsoever.
25:52Good for you. Takeaway number four, the starter stream show I did with Chuck Bass.
25:57It was at 9am streaming on player profilers, Facebook.
26:00Check us out on Facebook at Roto Underworld on Facebook.
26:03We're on YouTube. Of course, the player profiler YouTube channel on Twitter X on player profile on Twitter X at Roto Underworld on Twitter.
26:11X. We had a phenomenal show. We really enjoyed ourselves, but we also made sure to point out Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson are a major, major problem.
26:20It doesn't matter where you drafted guys like Judkins, where you drafted guys like Drake London.
26:25We had Christian Watson over Drake London as a start or sit choice.
26:29And we had, I mean, we had, this was, this was the Chuck special right here.
26:34Jordan Mason over Quinshawn Judkins. So I want us to want to give a little shout out to Chuck.
26:40Right. He's feeling bad for, cause, cause he said he had, he had downs over neighbors and that, that, you know, again, it happens.
26:48It happens to the best of us. It's not like neighbors put up huge points, right?
26:53We didn't think neighbors had a spike weekend in this week.
26:57And he didn't because he told us he probably wouldn't.
27:00So we believed him and he didn't great, but he made up for it, man.
27:05I mean, Chuck really came through with this, this Jordan Mason and he even texted me.
27:10He's like, Jordan Mason touched out. Thank God. I was like, yeah, it wasn't a big spike week, but we saved it.
27:17We saved it. Jordan Mason over Quinshawn Judkins. Great show.
27:20Keep tuning in. I'm going to keep joining Chuck as much as he'll have me.
27:25I love doing that show on Sunday morning. We just have a great time with it.
27:30And we had, we, we, we, we nailed it this week.
27:34B. John Robinson. Let's get back to this, this trade.
27:37B. John Robinson. You want B. John Robinson. B.
27:40John Robinson. Plus whoever you're going to get on the waiver wire is better than Chase Brown and whoever else.
27:46Okay. Now I know it's not whoever else is David Montgomery.
27:50I love David Montgomery. Oh my God. So in on David Montgomery, David Montgomery, the arbitrage of David Montgomery over Basial Tootin
27:57and over guys like Trevion Henderson is one of the defining reasons why many of you and us, me, everybody is going to have a great fantasy season.
28:06Thank you to David Montgomery. It's so on with David Montgomery.
28:09And I, that was one of the great disagreements I had with John Paulson.
28:14We had a big disagreement on David Montgomery. Is he a dead zone back?
28:18And I said, no, there's, there's, there are certain backs.
28:22And I know that they're of a certain age just because a guy is older doesn't mean he's a dead zone back.
28:29Christian McCaffrey is older. He's not a dead zone back.
28:32Everything was lining up for David Montgomery. All you had to do was just listen to the team, listen to the player,
28:39and just accept the obvious with David Montgomery. That all said, B.
28:43John Robinson was so good. He had this handicap.
28:46He had this Cooper Rush handicap and he put up 30 points.
28:50That's one of the best 30 point performances in the history of fantasy football.
28:54Think about it. We had these two horrific quarterbacks out that being thrown and we just did walk away.
29:00Don't do it. Bench Fannin, bench pits, bench everybody.
29:03Okay. Just walk away. Not be Sean. Everybody else.
29:06Just walk away. We said play Christian Watson over Drake London.
29:10Judkins had six points. London had four points. Fannin had four points.
29:14Pits had zero. So Kyle pits. He's going to have 30 point weeks and zero.
29:18That's what he's going to do. So weird. Like we project, we have to project pits for something every week, right?
29:25We're like 11. I don't know. Like, what are you going to do talking to max about pits?
29:31It's like, eh, yeah, there's, it's just giant volatility every week with pits.
29:35You got to deal with it, but zeros are there.
29:38They're in the range of outcomes. Very much. So as is 30, once Michael Penix gets back, it's going to be on, right?
29:46We'll talk about this later. Buy low, sell high pits is very much a buy low because Penix is coming.
29:52Okay. Phrasing. I know phrasing. The Penix is okay.
29:55Bijan's unbelievable trade for him. Yes. You're packaging chase Brown and David Montgomery.
29:59You're shipping him and you're getting Bijan and you're going to, whoever you can get in the RB two spot, you're betting on your ability to find somebody.
30:08And we're going to help you find, we are going to help you player profile, our team.
30:14We're going to help you find the right RB two to play every week.
30:18And then the total points from Bijan plus RB two X will exceed chase Brown and David Montgomery because Bijan is unbelievable.
30:25He's unbelievable. I mean, he's, he's a threat to put up 30 points per game as is, as is Jameer Gibbs.
30:32We're going to talk about Jameer Gibbs. We're going to talk about him.
30:36Right. But before we do that, takeaway number six, this was the best year for wide receiver arbitrage.
30:42Unbelievable. Right. Cause, and we laid it out round by round.
30:46Right. Remember Romeo Dobbs. We said, no, no, no, no.
30:49Romeo Dobbs. No, no, no, no, no, no. At that, at that spot, you can get Devon Valle rounds later.
30:55You don't need to take Dobbs. Right. What about, uh, Quinton Johnston, Quinton Johnston, best ball drafters love over drafting bad receivers in good situations.
31:03And then those best ball ADPs then influence traditional managed league, seasonal league ADPs.
31:08Tale as old as time. The three biggest defenders were Dobbs, Johnston, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:13These are bad receivers. Widely acknowledged. These are bad players.
31:16They don't look good in practice. They don't look good in games.
31:20They don't produce. They say, this guy can get 800 yards.
31:24It's like, what are we doing here, man? We're talking about a top 100 pick.
31:29What are we doing? Quinton Johnston. He's not good.
31:31He's not better than Trey Harris. Trey Harris is a better player.
31:35Michael Wilson is a better player than Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:39I mean, Jalen Coker. We were 16 and a half spots ahead of consensus on Jalen Coker in best ball.
31:4523 and a half spots ahead on Valle. We were like 15 spots ahead on Michael Wilson.
31:50But every week that went by, Michael Wilson ticked up a little bit and Marv ticked down a little bit.
31:57It was the slowest drip ADP shift. But I remember looking up going, oh, we were massively bullish on Michael Wilson.
32:04Now we're just like six or seven points ahead of consensus.
32:07That's it. But either way, these were easy arbitrage opportunities.
32:10And boom, they cash in. And I put it up on Twitter at fantasy underscore mansion.
32:16Here's a real team. I have multiple teams. I have several dynasty league teams and I have several that have the exact same wide receiver core.
32:24It's Zay Flowers, Jalen Coker, Devon Valle in multiple teams.
32:27And you all are in leagues with me. You can go look at it.
32:32You'll see it. You can say, oh, wow, I guess.
32:35Yeah, he does have those guys. Yeah, I traded for Zay Flowers.
32:39I drafted Zay Flowers. I already had Zay Flowers on a bunch of teams.
32:43And then I went picked up Valle everywhere. I tried to get Coker everywhere.
32:48Traded for Coker. And you go back to the trade guide show.
32:52You can see all those trades where I got Coker and or drafted Coker in a startup.
32:5762 fantasy points for those three guys. Dobbs, Marvin Harrison Jr., Quinton Johnston.
33:01Seven fantasy points. Okay. All right. And that's nothing except that's no target share math.
33:06That's not pace of play. That's nothing. That's just good versus bad players.
33:10That's the easiest, lowest hanging fruit. Just don't draft bad receivers because targets and air yards are earned.
33:16You can draft a bad running back. You can even draft a bad tight end in a particular type of situation.
33:23And it can work. You can't draft bad wide receivers because it's such a struggle to earn targets.
33:29Just ask Josh Downs, right? I mean, he's like, hey, I'm finally going to get where I need.
33:35Oh, we signed Keenan Allen. Oh, God. Right? So even good players can struggle to get targets.
33:40If you're a bad player, why even bother? Michael Wilson, week one, tons of air yards.
33:45Like smashed. Like he had more air yards than Marvin Harrison Jr., which is really interesting because that's the whole thing that
33:52Marv had on him was he's going to get the air yards.
33:56No, no, no, no. Like Michael Wilson had a chance to come down with multiple deep bombs and they just didn't connect.
34:03Those will connect. They could have easily connected. Veilet connected on them.
34:07Veilet had multiple, more than one spectacular diving catch.
34:10So did Parker Washington. Another easy, too easy. The arbitrage.
34:13Parker Washington over Brian Thomas. We were Washington over Thomas back when Thomas was being drafted before Washington.
34:19That's a thing that happened. If you just came to Fantasy in August, you're like, yeah, I guess Washington's always...
34:25No, no, no. For months, Thomas was going before Washington.
34:29Washington's just a better player. We're going to do this.
34:32We're going to do this comp soon. I'm not waiting.
34:35The comp on Parker Washington will most likely change to Jerry Rice very soon.
34:40I can't wait. I mocked it up on Twitter.
34:43I put it up there. Told you, gave you a sense of what it's going to look like.
34:48But I'm happy. I'm happy this is happening. It's fun.
34:52Let's go. Let's do it. Soon. Right? Soon. Yeah.
34:54I mean, what was my... I had a bold prediction this year.
34:58Bold prediction. Let's put that up on the screen here.
35:02We'll put that up on the screen. The bold predictions.
35:05We had some bold predictions up on Substack, up on patreon.com slash podfather.
35:09We had bold predictions. I posted these a couple weeks ago.
35:13And one of them was, as you can see, Parker Washington ends the season with the official Jerry Rice comp.
35:19So that's probably going to happen. Number 10 here, Dallas Goddard leads all tight ends and touchdowns.
35:24Dallas Goddard had two touchdowns. And I think that it's very much going to happen.
35:29I don't see why it wouldn't. Dallas Goddard is their option.
35:33Their number one receiver is like 160 pounds. Like Devontae Smith refused to even be weighed when he was testing.
35:39He didn't want to give it away. He knows he's super tiny.
35:43Makai Lemon, tiny, right? And so it's just Dontavian Wicks.
35:46That's his competition in the red zone. Come on, man.
35:5012 touchdowns. Very easy. Super. I mean, he only has 10 left to get.
35:5410 more touchdowns and he gets to 12. So Dallas Goddard, again, I guess that's not that crazy.
36:00All right. And I'm just looking down the list here.
36:03Jadarian Price ascends, leaving Zach Charbonnet behind George Helani.
36:06That could happen, right? It's already there. I mean, forget what happens with Helani and Charbonnet.
36:11Price looked damn good in week one. Zay Flowers is a top five fantasy receiver.
36:16This hamstring injury, the news came out that it's not serious.
36:20Thank God. Even though it is a re-aggravation. When it's a re-aggravation, I'm betting on him not playing week two.
36:26You almost never play the next week if it's a re-aggravation.
36:30But he might just miss one week. And that's very encouraging.
36:33Cyrus Allen is Kansas City's number one wide receiver at the end of the season.
36:38That was actually a, that was a sleight of hand, bold prediction, because there's a lot that can happen to Rashi Rice
36:45to knock him out other than bad play. And then number six was DeAndre Swift outscores both Ashton Gentry and Jeremiah Love in total fantasy points.
36:53And that looks like it's going to happen. Yes!
36:56And then we have Caleb Douglas finishing as Miami's clear wide receiver one.
37:00Caleb Douglas, huh? Wow! Caleb Douglas. That's fun. Isn't Caleb Douglas fun?
37:04We love rookies, rookies that are producing. Why not Caleb Douglas?
37:08Right? Let's do this. Now, I thought for a moment that we should do our, we're going to do a dance party.
37:15Just to let you know. We're doing a dance party.
37:18People are wondering, wait, he already talked about Coker and Vele and didn't do a dance party.
37:24Last year or two years ago, the last time, the last season I did the top 10 takeaways, I was very conservative with the dance parties.
37:32I held them back. This year, I have taken the top 10 takeaways back over from Pete Nova.
37:38Pete Nova is going to be doing the Waver Wired show.
37:41Tune in tomorrow to Pete Nova doing the Waver Wired show.
37:45He's incredible. I love Pete Nova. The people have spoken though.
37:48The people have spoken and they've said, we want you, the emails, the tweets, thank you for your concern and encouragement to
37:56have me get back into this chair. Top 10 takeaways.
37:59Not easy. A lot of research is done Sunday night, late Sunday night, early Sunday morning.
38:04Me and my team, we get together. We put together a lot of information on usage snaps, route participation rates, all these things.
38:11We can understand who's a buy low, who's a sell low, all these things.
38:16If we're going to be doing all this work, hell yeah, we're doing dance parties.
38:21We're not going to hold back dance parties. We're not going to manage the dance party volume, withhold the good times and tease the audience.
38:29That's not what we're doing. We're going to be doing a dance party.
38:33Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Today. Of course. Of course.
38:36I get these orphans. I took over. Think about, think about my position.
38:40I'm in. I took over these orphans. Horrible, horrible teams.
38:43Right. And I, and a lot of them ended up drafting like a Fernando Mendoza.
38:48He had like the second pick, a guy was going for the one-on-one, didn't get the one-on-one abandons his team.
38:55I end up with it. Okay. What do I do?
38:58I, you know, I've been since super flex. My second quarterback is Baker Mayfield.
39:02And I'm like, I got to get a third quarterback.
39:05I got, you know, this is super flex is two QB.
39:09So I'm sitting there at the one Oh two, one Oh three drafting Fernando Mendoza guys that aren't helping me.
39:15And I'm putting together teams. I'm trying to scrape together players.
39:19I'm like, man, maybe George Alani can do something.
39:22Maybe we can get something from Dylan Sampson. You know, we're trying to piece together throw-ins and trades and pieces that are
39:29undervalued and see if we can, you know, do it, do a trade to get Coker and Michael Wilson for Marvin Harrison, something like that.
39:37Went pretty well. So now I'm sitting here looking at my, my, these rosters going, we're winning.
39:43We're winning. These are teams that were supposed to lose.
39:46And now, well, now you're like, well, what are you doing, dude?
39:50Don't you want Jeremiah Smith? Like the whole point, if you have a Mendoza and you're not going to make the playoffs,
39:57the whole point is to try to finish last.
40:00I don't play dynasty that way. I'm here to try to win.
40:03I'm competitive. A bunch of these leagues, actually, they reward this.
40:07They don't just reward tanking. So it doesn't matter.
40:10I can't tank. I I I'm not wired to do it.
40:13I'm not going to tank. And I'm looking down and I'm like, win, win, win.
40:18And I'm like, why win? Why win? Oh, because you started three awesome receivers and you got just enough points from the rest of the guys.
40:27You're getting a Juwan Johnson in there. It just enough, just enough.
40:31So of course we're going to have a dance party and it's going to be all about Jalen Coker.
40:37And it's going to be all about Devon Vale.
40:40Of course, we're not going to have a, there's going to be weeks where there's not a lot to celebrate, right?
40:46Anytime you could have an orphan that's supposed to finish last start beating competitive teams.
40:51You have to feel good about it. I don't care about my exact weight.
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42:35Why wait? This is a competition, okay? I'm not here to tank.
42:39I feel great. We should feel great. Everyone should feel great.
42:43A lot of you have a lot of Jalen Coker.
42:46And it's also very encouraging, even though Michael Wilson didn't put up a huge number, the air yards, the targets, it's very
42:53encouraging for what we're seeing from Michael Wilson. So just be encouraged.
42:57But there's one guy, and it was one of these bold predictions that we need to talk about, because sometimes it's great
43:04just to sink into an incredible situation and an incredible talent.
43:07My daughter and I were watching this Saints-Lions game, very exciting, and I just couldn't help marveling at one Jameer Gibbs.
43:14Jameer Gibbs, because my number one bold prediction was that Jameer Gibbs would break LaDainian Tomlinson's all-time fantasy point scoring record.
43:21LaDainian Tomlinson put up 481.1 fantasy points in an MVP award-winning season 2006.
43:25Last night, Jameer Gibbs posted 33.6 PPR fantasy points.
43:28And anyone that watched him play will tell you that that seems like a fair baseline score from one week to the next.
43:36Last year, he had just a 44% snap share in and around the goal line.
43:40This year, because of David Montgomery. Of course. Why do we love David Montgomery?
43:45Montgomery. Touchdown equity. That was the number one reason.
43:48Jameer Gibbs played every goal line snap. He was always, whenever there were fantasy points to be scored, Jameer Gibbs was there.
43:55And this Lions secondary has been hollowed out. The situation is such a perfect setup for Jameer Gibbs to break the record.
44:02And for Bijan to be right there with him.
44:05That's the, that's, see, that's it. That's the thing.
44:08We take these guys for granted. We draft him at the 101, 102.
44:12And we're like, do the thing you do because you're my top pick.
44:16And that's what you should be doing. Nah, nah, nah, man.
44:20I've had so many first round picks bust or at least underperform that I am, I am elevated.
44:25When I see a Jameer Gibbs out there doing what he's doing.
44:29I am elevated. I am soaring. Thinking about Bijan Robinson with Cooper Rush putting up 30 points.
44:35That's why we dance. Oh yeah. Jalen Koch. Devon Bailey.
44:38But also. Gibson Bijan! Yes. Yes. And more. More to come.
44:42We have so many other players we love that didn't necessarily perform at a high level.
44:47Ooh. And then don't forget all the weekly sleepers we're going to be releasing.
44:51The starter stream advice we're going to give. These guys hit.
44:55We're going to be partying. Why not? Because why not?
44:58Fantasy football is fun. Let's do this. Parker Washington spectacular touchdown, right?
45:02Now Thomas left with a shoulder injury. He's going to be back.
45:06He came back. He didn't get any targets, but he's going to be back.
45:10That shoulder injury is not a big deal. Bottom line though is this is the Parker Washington show.
45:16So that's another reason to party. There were so many reasons to party this week.
45:21We lost track. Don't forget about Parker Washington there.
45:24All right. There are some warning flares on some players, especially some key running backs we've got to talk about.
45:30All right. Basial Tootin. That usage is worrisome. We love David Montgomery over Basial Tootin for all the reasons you saw in week one.
45:38It all played out exactly how we would have hoped.
45:41Basial Tootin had one target. That was always the big problem with Basial Tootin is he doesn't command targets.
45:47And Chris Rodriguez is going to be active inside the 20.
45:51He just is. The problem is what we didn't even realize was that Chris Rodriguez would run more routes.
45:57Chris Rodriguez ran more routes in week one. That's terrible for Basial Tootin, especially because LaQuint Allen was barely active, right?
46:04He was a coin flip to even be active.
46:07LaQuint Allen is going to get worked in more in passing situations.
46:11So there's going to be games where Basial Tootin doesn't catch a single pass.
46:15So what do you do with Basial Tootin? Well, here's the thing.
46:19The Jaguars are so good that Tootin will score, right?
46:22He's going to be in situations where he's going to score a bunch of fantasy points.
46:27In seasonal leagues, I think you just hold. But he is a sell in dynasty.
46:32He is a sell high in dynasty. You can still sell high because it is the Jaguars.
46:38And he was especially involved later in the game.
46:40Now, the problem is when the game was in doubt, that's when Rodriguez had more touches.
46:46So when you break this game down every which way, look at it from every angle, Rodriguez is the buy low and Tootin is the sell high.
46:54It's just what it is. So we'll talk more about buy highs and sell lows and sell highs and sell lows later.
47:01I'm also concerned about Travis H&ETN. So H&ETN played less than 60% of the snaps in a game where Alvin Kamara was not active.
47:09If it were Alvin Kamara and they're down 20, understood, right?
47:13H&ETN gets scripted off the field. It's fine, right?
47:16But it was Kendra Miller. Kendra Miller coming in?
47:19Really? Holding him under 60% of the snaps? Really?
47:21And ETN H&'s fantasy point total was a bit of a mirage because nine targets in a game were shucked through the
47:28ball 56 times when ETN H&'s way. Okay, right?
47:31Like that's not sustainable. And Kamara's coming back. So I am absolutely entertaining offers for Travis ETN H& right now.
47:38Now, what about Diva on H&? Not ETN H&, just regular H&.
47:42Diva on regular H&. There's the ETN H&s and then there is the standard H&.
47:47That's how we're doing with the names, okay? You get three running backs with the same name.
47:52We got to figure out a way to distinguish them in a way that makes any sense and is that I can
47:59actually keep my brain focused on what I'm trying to say, where I'm going without stumbling over the names.
48:05So ETN H& it is. Diva on H&. It's not great.
48:09Okay, it's not great. This was a game where he was just like Ash and Gentry.
48:14This was the game where these guys needed to perform well because it's only going to get harder.
48:20They're going to have negative game scripts. Problem is Miami had a big, big time negative game script in this game as well.
48:27There's going to be a lot more where that came from.
48:31Apparently Miami is much worse than Arizona. That was a shocker.
48:34Arizona, shocking. That was a takeaway. Shocking. Most shocking outcome.
48:37Arizona beating a team at home who was favored by nine and a half.
48:42That's a takeaway from later. We're just going to merge it in because we are way over on time.
48:48We're almost at an hour. We're not going to make it.
48:52We're not going to make it. I said an hour and we're not going to make it.
48:57We're not going to make it, man. Damn it.
49:00Thought we could do it. We're not going to do it.
49:04Diva on H& looks like he's going to catch plenty of passes.
49:07He's on pace for 85 targets. That is not going to be the problem.
49:12That was the reason why so many were fading him.
49:15It's not the problem. The problem is the touchdown vulturing.
49:18He can't score if when they get inside the five, it's a rollout and Malik Willis keeps it for a touchdown.
49:25That's the thing that was not in the range of outcomes with Tua.
49:29So I believe that H& will be more TD starved than target starved.
49:34Either way, he's a boom bust player. He's going to have 30 point performances when he busts off a long run.
49:40He has that always in his range of outcomes.
49:43Never forget that about H&, that he is a volatile guy.
49:47He gets there with spike weeks. He doesn't get there with weekly production.
49:51But those spike weeks, they need the touchdowns. And if a spike week from Diva on H& is more 23 points instead
49:58of 33 points, that's where the governor really gets installed on his production.
50:02So I am not encouraged. You could absolutely shop H& in seasonal leagues and see what you can get back.
50:09That's another great example of a guy that I would package to try to get up to Gibbs or try to get up to Bijan.
50:17But he signed a long-term contract in Dynasty. They're going to upgrade their quarterback.
50:21They're going to get away from Malik Willis next year.
50:24So in Dynasty, I'm very little concerned about H&.
50:27I have been some Dynasty leagues and this is just going to be a very volatile season, but I'm not too concerned.
50:34I'm very concerned about Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offensive line.
50:38This was something that I wish I had talked about more in the offseason, which is the slow degradation of the Eagles offensive line.
50:46Like, I don't know what happened, but there's something wrong with their run blocking.
50:50And their pass blocking is good. Their pass blocking is just fine.
50:54It's their run blocking, which is problematic. And this tweet is pretty hard to believe.
50:59I'm going to put this tweet up on the screen here as it relates to Saquon Barkley.
51:04Look at this. From Sean Syed, after being afforded a very low yards before contact last season, Saquon Barkley had a second
51:11percentile yards before contact per attempt in week one.
51:14This would rank 2,729th of 2,785 qualifying games. Holy shit.
51:18What? Is it that bad? The run blocking is that bad?
51:21Saquon Barkley needs good run blocking. So, wow. I didn't see the Cardinals somehow being good.
51:26And I didn't see the Eagles offensive line somehow being bad.
51:30These were two of the biggest surprises of week one.
51:33And it's not good for Saquon Barkley at all.
51:36I don't love it. I don't love it. I hate it.
51:40I hate it. I hate it. He's another guy.
51:42If you could package A-Chan and Barkley to get Gibbs or Bijon, you do it.
51:47Oh, I can't believe this. I like Barkley this year, man.
51:51Damn it. But if he's not getting any daylight at all, and Jalen Hurts is always a threat inside the five-yard line,
51:58he's going to get fantasy points squeezed. He's going to get high-value touch squeezed.
52:02This is takeaway number 10. We're at takeaway number 10 now.
52:06I was very encouraged by what I saw from a number of rookie wide receivers.
52:11We talked about Caleb Douglas already. That was one of my bold predictions.
52:15That is coming true. 5 or 7, 94 yards.
52:18Huge. Get him at it. He is their wide receiver one.
52:21Because Chris Bell tore his ACL at the end of last season.
52:25He's not going to be himself this year. Chris Bell could easily be the wide receiver one next year, but this year,
52:32this year, you'll have to wait, Chris. It's Caleb Douglas.
52:36Casey Concepcion. He was the target leader. Denzel Boston was the receiving yards leader.
52:40Doesn't matter. It was the Browns and their offense is incompetent, but that's encouraging.
52:45Antonio Williams for Washington. 4 for 4. Bryce Lance.
52:473 for 4. Bryce Lance was 3 for 4.
52:50Oh, yeah. Yeah, look at this. So put up on the screen.
52:54We'll look at Valey first just because we love looking at Valey.
52:58Just love looking at Valey. I could look at this guy all day.
53:02I can't believe what. I'm so happy. Not only did he produce, but he produced with spectacular catches.
53:08It was so cool. Oh, my God. So cool.
53:11And then we have Bryce Lance, right? He made the right decision in what position that he was going to pursue.
53:18Look at this athleticism. Fourth round pick. He is commanding snaps, targets, playing well in week one of his rookie year as a day three pick.
53:26That is absolutely gigantic for a rookie wide receiver.
53:29It's almost Jalen Coker level year one usage where it's just unbelievable.
53:33An undrafted guy getting thrown right in. Almost unheard of.
53:36This is rare to take a guy who's a late fourth rounder and just throw him in week one.
53:42But we saw that. Very encouraging. Josh Cameron. The Josh Cameron.
53:46Am I the only one that knows who Josh Cameron is?
53:49Anyone know who Josh Cameron is? And some of you know who Josh Cameron is.
53:54Many of you have him in Dynasty. I love how many people listen to this show and how knowledgeable they are.
54:01The types of emails that I get, podfather at roto1world.com, just about improving the site or did you know this and that.
54:08Amazing. Amazing. Josh Cameron commanded some targets. Now again, partly because Brian Thomas went out and so they needed he was next man up.
54:16But encouraging. Encouraging. This is a player with an 88th percentile speed score.
54:20He's out there going two for two. Also, not necessarily an early round pick.
54:24Sixth round. Very encouraging. Very, very encouraging. These rookies didn't go nuclear.
54:28They didn't put up a lot of touchdowns necessarily.
54:31They were in situations that just didn't allow them to score touchdowns.
54:35They're on the Browns. Malachi Fields last night, right?
54:38He had more route participation than even Darnell Mooney.
54:41All very encouraging. Ted Hurst, three for three. Right?
54:44So, I mean, just look at the catch rate efficiency of all these rookies.
54:48Unreal. So cool. Takeaway number 11. This is very fringe.
54:52I know many of you don't care about this guy.
54:55But Tyrone Tracy has been quietly one of the more disappointing week one players.
54:59He had zero targets to Devin Singletary's four. He was supposed to be the third down back, supposed to be the two-minute drill back, the breather back.
55:08And yet his ADP collapsed. It was one of those ADPs where we were dropping him, but we couldn't keep up, where
55:15best ball drafters were just not touching him after the Dusty Najee Harris signing, right?
55:20So this is another one of those situations where I was like, I'm not going to push down Josh Downs into the 100s because of Keenan Allen.
55:29Now, we'll see if that ends up being a bad call, right?
55:32We should have pushed him down more. That's been acknowledged.
55:36Same thing with Tyrone Tracy. But the reason why it wasn't necessarily a obvious mistake is that it wasn't about Najee Harris.
55:43What the hell's going on with Tyrone Tracy? I'm looking at this Devin Singletary usage, befuddled, absolutely befuddled.
55:49I'm like, we got it right. Najee Harris is dust.
55:52He's not someone you need to be worrying about.
55:55You can't be discounting Cam Scadaboo because of Najee Harris.
55:58That's bad process. We were right. We were right.
56:01And with running backs in particular, old dusty running backs, this has always been our position and we're not changing it.
56:08Make a little bit of a tweak in the future for a guy like Keenan Allen, but not Najee Harris because it wasn't Najee.
56:15It was Singletary. If anyone has any information, this is like a missing persons report.
56:20Has anyone, have you any information about Tyrone Tracy?
56:23Please report it to me. Please submit a report to me.
56:27I want to know what the hell's going on with Tyrone Tracy because he's now just cuttable.
56:32And if you're in a deep dynasty league, I'm like, listen, the guy's explosive.
56:37He's got an all purpose skillset. He's got a running back ahead of him that has no regard for his personal health.
56:44He's probably going to be the starter at some point this year and be really productive in the context of the Giants offense, given his skillset, Tyrone Tracy.
56:53Now, if they're just in a close game, they're going to lean on Singletary.
56:57They're going to put Singletary out there over Tracy.
57:00Then I'm like, okay, I'm moving on, moving on.
57:03I can't believe I was offended by that usage.
57:06That was the one bit of usage down the board.
57:09I was offended by offend. I wasn't offended by Brissette.
57:12I wasn't offended by Bryce Young. I want these guys to be productive.
57:17Jacoby Brissette has been working his ass off. Goes 27 of 37, puts up almost 300 yards, a touchdown, no picks, only one sack.
57:24This Chargers defense is not what it was sold to be.
57:28And this Cardinals offensive line, clearly better than we thought.
57:31That was extraordinary. Bryce Young, 37 fantasy points. Extraordinary.
57:34Take that away. Think about how small he is.
57:37My daughter's comment was like, look how small Bryce Young is.
57:40I'm like, yeah, it's pretty cool that he's this productive given how diminutive he is, his stature.
57:46The takeaway is play everybody against the Bears. So finally, we've made it here.
57:50The final takeaway. We did it. We're well over an hour in.
57:54We're at the final takeaway. You made it. We all made it.
57:58Is Caleb Douglas worth a number one waiver claim?
58:01No, no. Caleb Douglas is not worth the number one waiver claim.
58:05I wanted to be major, massive cheerleader guy. He was one of my bold predictions.
58:10Want to just follow that up and just keep beating the drum, but I can't do it.
58:15I can't beat the drum because the number one waiver claim is very valuable.
58:20That is for running backs only. Like if a Cam Scadaboo did go down and you knew it was going to be
58:27all about Tyrone Tracy for the next six weeks, you use it on a Tyrone Tracy.
58:32So hold it back for that. Now, again, Tyrone Tracy betrayed us all by somehow losing his job to Devin Singletary.
58:39But there's other guys like that. I was going to say maybe a Dylan Sampson if something happens to Quinshot Judd kids.
58:46But no, no. Now that's Raheem Sanders. I don't know how serious this knee injury is for Dylan Sampson.
58:52Raheem Sanders, he's a good pickup. He's a very quiet guy to add this offseason.
58:57I'm hoping that Pete talks about Raheem Sanders this week, right?
59:00I've already added him in Dynasty throughout the offseason.
59:03But now in all leagues, he's a guy you can just quietly just add to the back of your waiver wire claims and just sneak him in.
59:12You don't want to use a top claim on a guy like Raheem Sanders.
59:16He's not the starter. But now he becomes a very interesting handcuff depending on how long Dylan Sampson is out.
59:23He's also caught some passes. Raheem Sanders is never known as a big pass catcher.
59:28He's out here commanding targets. I thought that was very interesting.
59:31I was like, hmm, we have Sanders commanding targets, but Tyrone Tracy's not.
59:35This is a weird opposite world we're living in, but I'm here for it.
59:40I'm absolutely here for it. So there's going to be situations where a player is on the waiver wire, like a Kendra
59:47Miller, and he's the clear next man up. And a guy like Travis ETN HN goes down.
59:53That's what you reserve your number one waiver claim for.
59:56That's it. Okay. We're here. Buy high, sell high, buy low, sell low.
60:00Here we go. Sell high, Tyler Shuck. Okay. Two interceptions and five sacks against Detroit.
60:05This offensive line cannot protect him. Yes. He was able to get it together at the end against a weak lion secondary, but he did the bare minimum.
60:14Really? If you think about it, if you watch the game, I know the numbers look like he did a lot, like he did the maximum.
60:22When you watch the game, he did the minimum.
60:25So I think that just you could sell just the fantasy point output to anyone that didn't see the game on Tyler Shuck.
60:32I think he is a sell. I'm worried about the saints.
60:36I don't think the saints offense is worth a damn at this point.
60:40And a lot of it has to do with the offensive line.
60:44It's not good. It's not good. You can absolutely let Tyler Shuck go.
60:48Remember Tyler Shuck was a second round pick and he's not necessarily the quarterback of the future there.
60:54We don't know who there's going to be a lot of new quarterbacks coming on the market next year and the saints
61:01may be in the market for a quarterback. We don't know.
61:05It's not a sure thing that Tyler Shuck is their franchise quarterback.
61:09So for several reasons in both dynasty and seasonal leagues, I think Tyler Shuck is a sell.
61:14I'm also selling high on Chuba Hubbard because he just came off.
61:18Anytime you play the bears, you do well. You're a sell high candidate.
61:22Really? He played 79% of the snaps, but Jonathan Brooks looked explosive.
61:26Jonathan Brooks had big plays and Jonathan Brooks just had to prove he was healthy and durable to his coaches.
61:32Now that snap share is going to tick up, tick up, tick up.
61:37And it's going to be at the expense of Chuba Hubbard.
61:40There's only one clear sell low. And if you know who that is, if anyone can guess who that is, you can't get anything for Romeo Dobbs.
61:49That's not a sell low. You can't get anything for Quentin, you know, Quentin Johnston.
61:54No, there's no sell lows. You know, you could sell low on Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:59Marvin Harrison Jr. Still has some name brand equity somewhere.
62:02I know someone thinks he's might still be good.
62:05Someone's willing to take a chance. Usually one out of 12, you're going to have someone in your league that wants to
62:12take a chance on Marvin Harrison Jr. Buy high.
62:15A couple of buy highs for you. Buy high on Caleb Douglas.
62:18We talked about him earlier, but also buy high on Dalton Kincaid.
62:22Dalton Kincaid got his route participation rate up from what was closer to 50% in previous seasons to 69%, which is nice.
62:29Okay. And he also had the 20 plus percent target share.
62:33And he was making spectacular catches. He was a guy that Josh Allen was looking at in clutch situations.
62:39Dalton Kincaid is going to be a top five tight end this year.
62:43So he is absolutely a buy high guy. You're like, buddy, he got 130 yards.
62:48Yeah, but no touchdown. So you can still get him.
62:51You can still get him. It's someone might think, oh, you're just, you're, this guy's a great sell high.
62:57You know, I got 130 yards out of him.
63:00He exceeded his expectations. He's Dalton Kincaid. We know exactly what he is.
63:05He's a little bit less than Tucker craft, right?
63:07He's Tucker craft light. No, no, no. I think he'll outscore Tucker craft this year.
63:12Buy low. We have a bunch of buy lows, a lot of buy lows, Justin Herbert by low.
63:18He took three sacks at an interception. I don't understand what's happening with Arizona.
63:23I don't know how they got good, but I do believe that Justin Herbert is good.
63:28He has a huge arm. He does have good enough weapons.
63:31We saw some nice plays by guys like a Ronda Gadsden.
63:35He's going to scramble a little bit more, but man, he looked comfortable in the pocket for large periods of that game.
63:42And then things really fell apart when, when they started getting desperate, he's going to have weeks where they go up against Kansas city.
63:50They, they go up against Denver. These are some of these, some of these defenses.
63:55They're good. That, that front seven, they have that those offensive linemen, the offensive front seven in Los Angeles, they're going to
64:02be able to nullify some of the better defensive front sevens in the league with that offensive line.
64:07And that will allow him to collaborate with a Patrick Mahomes, with a Bo Nix and shoot out some games.
64:14So I, I, we have been historically very bullish on Justin Herbert, the player, and he put up the same fantasy points as Joe Burrow.
64:22We've had him and Joe Burrow right there. Whereas most people have Burrow well ahead of Herbert.
64:27We have them pretty much adjacent everywhere. And so whether it's Burrow, whether it's Herbert, Herbert is a little bit better of
64:34a buy low than Burrow because not many people are just selling Burrow after one bad game, but you could absolutely see
64:42someone letting go of Herbert thinking, yeah, Herbert. No, no, no.
64:45Herbert's very, very good. He's a, he's got it all.
64:48He's the, he's the total package. So I want Justin Herbert as a buy low.
64:53Luther burden was five for five. He played. That's all we care about.
64:57It just didn't, the fantasy points didn't come. The spike week didn't work out.
65:02Same with the dunes. Hey, he played, he's going to be more healthy.
65:06He had a spectacular downfield play. He's only going to get better from here.
65:11Burden's only getting better from here. Colson Loveland, the most obvious buy low.
65:15I don't need to mention it. Who cares? He ran 92% of the routes.
65:19Come on, man. That is the ultimate, just variance zero of the season.
65:23So buy low on all these bears receivers. Buy low on Terry McLaurin.
65:28Terry McLaurin ran 10 more routes than Stefan Diggs.
65:31And Jaden Daniels under center more than he's ever been.
65:34Terry McLaurin's going to have weeks. Now is the perfect time to get him.
65:38He's like, oh no, I guess it's Diggs. No, no, no, no, no, no.
65:43That was one week. No, no. Terry McLaurin, he is a sports car.
65:47Just like Luther Burden's a sports car. Okay. Just like Justin Herbert's a sports car of quarterbacks.
65:52Terry McLaurin's a sports car. Get him. Kyle Pitts is a sports car of tight ends.
65:58Michael Penick's going to be back soon. He'll be back before October.
66:01You've got to get my, got to get Kyle Pitts before then.
66:05You might even wait though. We could have one more bad week.
66:09We could have one more Cooper rush to a week, but I would start now seeing what it's going to take to
66:16get Kyle Pitts, Kenyon Sadiq, Kenyon Sadiq ran around on 46% of the dropbacks by Gino Smith.
66:22That's going to go up, right? He was out all off season with this groin hernia problem, and he's been working his way back.
66:2946% of the dropbacks running around. That sounds pretty good actually.
66:33So Kenyon Sadiq, another one of these sports car, Pitts, Sadiq, athletic tight ends that didn't produce in week one that you can buy low on now.
66:42The number one buy low, and this is huge.
66:45This is a giant buy low. This is the buy low, okay?
66:49The most obvious buy low, screaming buy low, Rico Dowdle.
66:52Rico Dowdle played 39 of the team's 67 snaps.
66:55Jalen Warren only played in 25, okay? And even though Warren was more productive, okay, Dowdle ran more routes.
67:01Dowdle ran routes 17% more often than Warren did.
67:04This was incredible process. We had Dowdle as a guy you should start.
67:08If you're not going to start him in week one against the Falcons at home, when would you ever start him?
67:15And then he had the usage that you were hoping for, which is the reason you started him.
67:20Just like Gino Smith. Everything played out exactly why you would start Gino Smith, except he didn't get the touchdowns.
67:27Everything played out exactly how we wanted with Rico Dowdle in week one.
67:31He just didn't get the fantasy point scoring opportunities, but they are coming.
67:35Rico Dowdle is the best, the number one buy low on the board in fantasy football.
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68:25So if you're ready to reach your goals like I am, visit HIMS.com slash player profile to get a personalized, affordable plan that gets you.
68:33That's HIMS.com slash player profile. HIMS.com slash player profile.
68:36Weight Loss by HIMS is not available in all 50 states.
68:40Wagovi is a registered trademark of Novo Nordisk AS.
68:43To get started and learn more, including important safety information, Wagovi clinical study information, and restrictions, visit HIMS.com.
68:48Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
68:52They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
68:57I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together, it's a masterpiece.
69:01Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
69:06Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio.

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