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1:02Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
1:05They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
1:11I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together?
1:14It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
1:20Nationwide Investment Services Corporation. Nationwide is on your side.
1:23Nationwide is on your side. I think this is the show that you need on Mondays.
1:28This is going to bring it all together. Everything you need to know, everything that might be actionable, curiosity, a fringe player
1:35that you need to be aware of, a good player that's actually in danger.
1:40We will cover it all today. And we're going to dive right in right now.
1:45It starts with good process, bad outcome. In this case, the best process and the worst outcome.
1:50And that was clearly Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase is a great process.
1:54Jamar Chase is going to be great. Jamar Chase is here to remind us that the wide receiver position is just volatile.
2:01It just, this happens. You cannot set your watch by B.
2:05John Robinson always getting 20 plus touches and always delivering 10 plus fantasy points.
2:09That's B. John. That's Jameer Gibbs. That's Christian McCaffrey.
2:12That's not Jamar Chase. That's not the wide receiver position.
2:15Last year in week one against Cleveland, Jamar Chase put up 4.6 points and then he smashed for the rest of the year.
2:23So it's fine. Jamar Chase. If anyone's selling, you're buying low, but no one's selling low.
2:28No one's buying low. It's not even that low.
2:31It's not a big deal. Another player where you had great process and the worst possible outcome, the cartoonish bad outcome for me personally was Kyler Murray.
2:40Kyler Murray led our plays of the week. He was on the featured image, lifting weights.
2:45He's back all business and he gets a concussion and Carson Wentz, who was inferior to him, puts up 25 fantasy points on negative one yards rushing.
2:53And I'm losing my mind watching this. I'm losing it.
2:57I'm dead. I can't believe this is happening. I'm like week one.
3:00Really? This is what football. Okay. Okay. Okay. Cool.
3:03Cool. We also suggested a desperation stream of Gino Smith that he's playable in super flex.
3:09Okay. He went out and he put up 19 for 24, 215 yards.
3:13Adnan Mitchell, who had also an interesting streamer this week, in spite of the low game total, 17 and a half point game total, the jets crushed it.
3:22They crushed their game. They crushed their implied points by like six.
3:26It was 17 and a half implied points. The game total was like in the high thirties and the implied points for
3:33the jets was 17 and a half. And I said, they're going to smash that.
3:38And they did. And Gino Smith was super efficient.
3:40He just didn't get the touchdown. It went to Brees Hall, right?
3:44Touchdown to Brees Hall. Fine. Process. What? Great process.
3:47Great process. With Gino Smith. Great process with Kyler Murray.
3:50One didn't work out because he got hurt. The other didn't work out because of touchdown variants.
3:56Otherwise, very encouraging. Very encouraging for Adnan Mitchell. Was this a streamer that worked out?
4:01Not really. But six fantasy points in standard leagues, nine fantasy points in PPR leagues could have been worse.
4:07Could have been worse. But it's foreshadowing good results in the future, especially now that Omar Cooper picked up a foot and ankle injury.
4:15So we're going to monitor his recovery from this.
4:17If he misses any time, it's just yet more reason to be in on Addy Mitchell moving forward.
4:23Cam Ward betrayed Gino Smith. Gino Smith would have put up huge numbers.
4:27If there was another quarterback on the other side of that game that could have propelled this game into a shootout, we
4:35would have seen some real DGAV Gino Smith. And we are going to look at the schedule.
4:40There's going to be plenty of games where Gino's facing the bills.
4:44He's going to have to put up points. We're going to see some true DGAV Gino Smith.
4:49And if this baseline that we're starting with is 19 of 24 for 215, just a well-managed, well-executed win, then what does
4:56that mean for future Gino Smith games? It's all very encouraging, even though we didn't get the precise fantasy result that we wanted.
5:04With Kyler Murray, the concussion, that's a little more concerning.
5:07That's like bad luck and we're concerned. Gino Smith, it's bad luck and we're very encouraged by that.
5:13Regarding Cam Ward, he came into the league. The reason why he was the number one pick was his big arm.
5:20He had the big arm, the big cannon arm, was erratic, would not have been the number one overall pick in another
5:27class, but it was a weak QB class. Other quarterbacks have come out with big arms.
5:32I'm thinking about Daniel Jones. I'm thinking about Drew Locke.
5:35I'm thinking about Carson Wentz, the aforementioned Carson Wentz.
5:38These guys all came out with huge cannon arms.
5:41That's one of the reasons why they got drafted, where they did.
5:45Drew Locke was so erratic, he wasn't going to get the premium draft capital.
5:49But Carson Wentz went two overall. Daniel Jones, top 10 pick.
5:53Arm strength was the big reason. Just they looked the part and they had the arm.
5:58And then they were just, the scouts were just a top 10 pick.
6:02And then the league beat that out of them.
6:05And that is very much possible with Cam Ward in that he eventually just doesn't have the courage to push the ball down the field.
6:13He's been burned too many times. And the league just beats the aggressiveness out of him.
6:18And he becomes a meek quarterback. And that's what happens to a lot of guys.
6:23And sometimes they go on to another job and another job and another team, another team.
6:28And then they realize, I'm almost out of the league.
6:32I might as well just air it out. That's what Carson Wentz did.
6:36That's what Geno Smith is doing now. And so it's not over for Cam Ward by any means.
6:41In fact, Cam Ward could just have had a bad game against the Jets.
6:46It's hard to believe, right? That he would put up such a low yards per attempt.
6:51And you just didn't see him pushing the ball down the field hardly at all.
6:56And that's just not why they brought him in.
6:59They brought him there to be a gunslinger, right?
7:02And it's not happening. And it's very much a warning signal for anyone that has Cam Ward and Dynasty.
7:08There's nothing we can do, though. I have some Cam Ward and Dynasty.
7:12We did talk about this in Dynasty Startups that I participated in this offseason.
7:17I wanted more Cam Ward than I could get.
7:20Ended up getting a lot more Shuck and Fernando Mendoza and not in similar ADP zone.
7:25And not as much Cam Ward in startups. So I actually don't.
7:29I looked. I don't have much Cam Ward at all.
7:32But I've been on the bullish side of Cam Ward's career thinking, you know, this guy is eventually going to get weapons and get it figured out.
7:40He has the raw tools. And he has the usually a guy with the raw tools that the league is skeptical.
7:47Like, let's say, Will Levis, Drew Locke. The league's skeptical of these guys.
7:51And so they're like, well, we'll draft him in the early second round.
7:56But we don't trust them with Cam Ward. They trusted him all the way to draft him at the 101.
8:02So for that reason, I have been encouraged and I've been on the glass half full side of Cam Ward.
8:08And now if you have him in Dynasty, you can't really sell him knowing that these guys have a second life.
8:15Sometimes, whether it be Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield. In Dynasty, a guy like Cam Ward and Superflex, you just got to hold and hope.
8:23You can't sell low now. There's so many ways that he could actually deliver several super productive seasons in the future.
8:30You just can't sell low on a guy like Cam Ward right now, even though to flame out that bad, to face plant so absurdly.
8:38And they weren't in that game, right? That game was over.
8:41It was pathetic. It was just a truly pathetic performance.
8:45And to be that pathetic and not be able to put that guy on the block, right?
8:50So like, but can I sell low? A lot of times we say, hey, just be a realist.
8:56Get out while you can. You're not going to get a lot from him right now.
9:01You're not going to get a lot. If you check out the Dynasty rankings on Player Profile, they'll be updated soon.
9:08Cam Ward's coming down, man. He's coming down. We were hoping that the struggles in preseason, there was certainly a possibility.
9:15Especially he got a little bit better as the summer went along.
9:18Started to see some positive reports from beat reporters around the Titans.
9:22And then in this game, a home game against the Jets, it's only going to get harder from here.
9:28So yeah, I am very concerned about Cam Ward, but also paralyzed.
9:32And we're all paralyzed. We can't really do anything in Dynasty with him except hold.
9:37Sure, seasonal leagues, whatever, man. Do whatever you want in seasonal leagues with Cam Ward.
9:42I don't care, right? He's not your number one.
9:45He's probably not even your number two. So if he's a depth piece and you want to let him go, fine.
9:52I don't care. I don't really care what you do in seasonal leagues with Cam Ward.
9:57Oh, but boy, oh boy. It's so different in Dynasty with a guy like Cam Ward versus seasonal leagues.
10:03Cam Ward's a premium asset in Dynasty. And so that's the context where we're like, hey, we need to have a hard conversation about Cam Ward.
10:11And I don't like it. And I'm not here to offer any encouragement.
10:15But I also don't have any advice about how you can manage the situation except to hold and pray and hope.
10:22That's all you can do. Carnell Tate's going to get better as he develops in the league.
10:28It is just his second year. And Cam Ward transferred to Miami.
10:32So he didn't have the smoothest, most continuity in college.
10:35So it's possible that as the year goes along that he starts to figure it out.
10:40We have to hope. Otherwise, even if he doesn't figure it out, we're still stuck.
10:45We're still stuck. You just have to then hope for the Jared Goff career trajectory.
10:50That's all we can do. You can't sell him in Dynasty.
10:53He's unsellable. He's an immovable asset. Like the market is frozen right now in Dynasty for Cam Ward.
10:59That's takeaway number one. And we're more than 10 minutes in.
11:02If we project it out, this is going to be a two-hour show.
11:07Y'all know I have a Jeff Janis signed rookie card.
11:10One of my prized possessions. And this year, I'm taking card collecting more seriously.
11:14And that means targeting Parker Washington rookie cards. That's right.
11:18A former undrafted rookie. He's about to break out, and most people never saw it coming.
11:23And I've been inspired by a new app called Whatnot.
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11:34They're dedicated businesses going live around the clock, and they know what they're selling, what's rare, why condition actually matters.
11:41You can ask questions and get an instant answer because it's a community.
11:45You're not scrolling alone. You're in a live chat with other collectors, people who want to talk about the same rookies you want to talk about.
11:53Whatnot is why I'm much more into card collecting now than I was before.
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12:01Just search Whatnot, W-H-A-T-N-O-T, in the App Store, download it, sign up, and start finding the things you've been chasing.
12:08That is Whatnot, W-H-A-T-N-O-T, in the App Store to get $20 off.
12:11Terms apply. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
12:15They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
12:21I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together, it's a masterpiece.
12:25Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
12:30Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Every game day, you show up for your team.
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12:46Why wait? Takeaway number two is don't dismiss old target competition tethered to bad quarterbacks.
12:50I know it's very specific, but I look back at all of our processes and procedures generating all of our draft kit
12:58rankings, seasonal rankings, cheat sheets, all the things, best ball rankings, on player profiler that you all have come to know and
13:05trust and make a lot of money with. There's one area where I think we needed to rethink our process, and it's on me.
13:12It's 100% on me, and that's that we were too casual dismissing 34-year-old wide receivers on teams that are not prolific.
13:19Two players, we under-projected their target shares for 2026, and that's on me.
13:23I've been burned too many times by 34-year-old wide receivers going to a new team or saying they're coming back reinvigorated, and then nothing.
13:31And they all end up on the Titans somehow, right?
13:34Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Roddy White, all these guys, I was convinced they had something left, and then they didn't, right?
13:42And so with Keenan Allen, six targets, that was a surprise to me.
13:46Cooper Cup should have had a touchdown. Cooper Cup should have been a very pretty, it was called back with a penalty,
13:53but Cooper Cup almost was like, hey, I'm the clear number two wide receiver here, just based on production.
13:59And that surprised me, because we have been team Josh Downs and team Rashid Shahid all offseason, not to a point where
14:06we're drafting them at crazy multiples above their ADP, but in general, I've been getting, like in our staff draft, I got
14:13Rashid Shahid, and we are generally bullish on Josh Downs, that what we saw in 2024 was the real Josh Downs, and
14:20that there's more of that to come, that he is actually explosive, but Keenan Allen is a problem.
14:26He's more of a problem than we projected him to be, and that was a process error that we need to fix.
14:33If this was a prolific offense, it wouldn't much matter.
14:36The problem is, the only time you care about mouths to feed are teams that are in the bottom 10, the lower
14:44volume offenses, the inferior quarterbacks, those teams where you know they're going, they're in the market for a quarterback in the NFL draft next year.
14:52With those teams, it's much harder to squeeze a good wide receiver into a situation where he's going to be able to
14:59get the requisite targets that he needs to put up a wide receiver one season.
15:04Things really have to align pretty well, right? Think about Jackson Smith and Jigba and how little target competition he had last year.
15:11In Indianapolis, Josh Downs is competing with Tyler Warren, a top five tight end.
15:15Alec Pierce comes back, and against all odds, he's active, and he played more than 50% of the snaps.
15:22Now, he did leave with a wrist injury, and he had a soft cast on, so we're going to see what happens with his wrist injury.
15:30My guess is he's going to play through it.
15:33Maybe he misses a game, but he's probably going to play through it.
15:37And Keenan Allen came out of the game healthy.
15:40I just can't believe it. Like, I'm in shock about Keenan Allen in particular.
15:44The six targets to Josh Downs four, together they had 10 targets.
15:48So if you're thinking, Daniel Jones loves to target players like Keenan Allen and Josh Downs, we were right.
15:54It's just when Keenan Allen arrived, did not discount the Josh Downs target share enough.
15:59On the flip side, if you're looking at the glass half full on Josh Downs, if you think he's a buy low,
16:06which he is, he's a buy low because he didn't do anything.
16:10So he's a buy low. He's a good player.
16:13So I think he's a buy low, but I'm not running out screaming, he's the top buy low in the NFL because this Keenan Allen is a problem.
16:22And being part of a run first Daniel Jones offense is not the smoothest path to fantasy production.
16:28So no, I'm not waving the flag for Josh Downs, but I do acknowledge he is a buy low.
16:34He's certainly a three. Is he a throw in now?
16:37I think you certainly want to get him thrown in if you can to any deals because three of Downs, four targets came on the first drive.
16:46And then he just managed one target after that.
16:49And in many ways, that's encouraging. That was the one drive we saw where the Colts were demonstrating maximum competence.
16:55And so for him to be the featured guy in that first drive, when it was planned out, mapped out, right?
17:02They had those plays scripted. That tells me that he is a featured weapon.
17:07And it just didn't work out after that. They were just scrambling around trying to come back.
17:12And it just, the ball didn't go his way.
17:15So I am encouraged. 65% route share for Alec Pierce.
17:18That's only going to go up. The problem is it might go down before it goes up because of the wrist injury.
17:25Okay. But I mean, the Colts offense is just not an epicenter of wide receiver fantasy points.
17:31And as long as Keenan Allen is out here finding soft spots in the zone when they're in the hurry up offense,
17:38and that ball is not going to Josh Downs, that's a problem.
17:42As Pierce starts to increase his route participation rate, once he gets past this wrist problem, that's going to be a problem.
17:49So it's frustrating. It's frustrating to have a good player that is in one of these situations where there just are too
17:56many weapons for a run first team captained by Daniel Jones to get these guys to a place where you're comfortable starting them.
18:03There is a such thing as too many miles to feed.
18:07It is a cliche. It is overused. And the reason it's overused is because it's misapplied when it's a good team.
18:14When it's a prolific offense, there's no such thing as too many miles to feed.
18:18It's silliness. Look at the Bengals. They fed Mike Gusecki this week just fine.
18:23He was their leading scorer. So there's no reason that you can't stream Mike Gusecki one week where you love the matchup
18:30because there's too many miles to feed there in Cincinnati.
18:33That's not a thing in Cincinnati. It is a thing on a team like the run first Seattle Seahawks with Sam Darnold
18:40at quarterback, the run first Indianapolis Colts, a team with an abysmal quarterback play like the Browns.
18:46It's a problem in those situations. Like the Atlanta Falcons currently without Michael Penix.
18:50It's a problem. And whether it's Rashid Jaheed or whether it's Josh Downs, these are very good players that are getting crowded
18:57out of low volume offenses by 34-year-olds that they are better than in every way.
19:02But the team trusts them. And if they're going to make it through camp and the team is going to rest them
19:09in preseason and just make sure that they're healthy for the season when it starts, you can't overproject.
19:15You can't fantasy wish cast a target share onto good players like Josh Downs and Rashid Jaheed if the team offenses aren't going to cooperate.
19:23A Cooper Cup and a Keenan Allen are very much a problem in those situations.
19:28They're much more of a problem than if they had landed on good teams.
19:33And it would have came out in the wash otherwise.
19:36Now, when it comes to the weekly projections, so that was probably our greatest weakness with our seasonal projections was not accounting
19:43for enough target share with the 34-year-old dust receivers on bad teams.
19:47I know it's a very specific criticism, but it's true.
19:50It was a – I was looking at our projections and looking at all the scores coming in and looking at all the usage reports.
19:58And I was talking to Max. He's a whiz kid from Syracuse helping us with managing all these projections.
20:04And I was like, yeah, man. Yeah, we should have given Cooper Cup and Keenan Allen a little more credit.
20:11Even though Keenan Allen had a DUI as soon as he arrived, looking haggard, running a 5-0-40.
20:16Doesn't matter. If he's going to be on the team in week one, you've got to give him a Keenan Allen requisite target share.
20:24And that means you've got to take it away from other players.
20:28That's just the way it works. And when players switch teams, they don't put up 100% snap share or route participation right away.
20:35And so that was my one mistake with the weekly projections and I even made it into my plays of the week
20:42as a super fringe sort of desperation Hail Mary play was Keishon Booty.
20:46I love the matchup against Buffalo. I love the player.
20:50I love his role as an outside playmaker and touchdown scorer.
20:53So that was the rationale, but he didn't play enough snaps.
20:57He only played 36 of 79 snaps because he's still picking up the offense.
21:01He just arrived. So I was too early on a guy like Keishon Booty.
21:06I still believe that he is going to be a quality Hail Mary streamer in the weeks ahead.
21:12It's just that week one was too much to ask for a guy that just arrived.
21:17So that was the, those were the, those were the, the, the seasonal and weekly projection learnings from week one where we're going to get better.
21:25Every year we're trying to get better. The mistakes we made 10 years ago.
21:30I mean, it's a laundry list compared to now, but we all make mistakes.
21:34This was the one area where I think we can improve is better understanding the offensive environments in, in, in these specific
21:41types of teams like the Colts and the Seahawks.
21:44Uh, and then, uh, and, and, and being cautious playing players that are brand new to a team in week one.
21:51The thing is like that, I knew that I just, I knew that already that one.
21:56I didn't have to actually learn. I've known that I was blinded, blinded by my love of booty.
22:02It's true. It's true. I was blinded. I was, I, I was like, this is such a great situation for booty.
22:09Oh my God. I want to get it. I want to find ways to get him in there.
22:14Fringy ways to get him in there. Yeah. Takeaway number three.
22:18And we are rocking. We are 25 minutes in.
22:21We have two takeaways and now the comments are coming in.
22:24We're alive here. Uh, yes, we're back. And, uh, Jalen Coker.
22:28Yes. We're going to talk Jalen Coker. Yes. We're going to talk Colson Loveland.
22:32No doubt. No doubt. Yes. We're going to talk Bijan.
22:36Yes. We're going to talk David Montgomery. Someone's asking if I should trade Jamar Chase or Chase Brown and David Montgomery for Bijan.
22:43We'll cover that later. I have a thought on that.
22:46We'll definitely cover that later. That's a great question.
22:49Chase Brown and David Montgomery for Bijan. Let's all marinate on that.
22:53We'll come back to it. We'll come back to that.
22:56This show has to happen in less than an hour.
22:59We have to go now. We're two takes in and we're already have to go to rapid fire.
23:05I can't believe we're already in rapid fire. Good process, bad result.
23:09Number two. Right? So we talked, we talked about this already, but at the quarterback position, we have another good process, bad result at wide receiver.
23:18And that was Chris Godwin. If you played Chris Godwin thinking this was a great matchup, don't feel bad.
23:24I don't feel bad. This isn't like a correction thing that we're going to get better at.
23:29We're going to, we're going to project Cooper cups week one target share at a higher rate in the future.
23:36Sorry. Right? That's not, that's not it. Okay. That's not what we're doing here.
23:40There's no problem with Chris Godwin. If you played Chris Godwin, he gave you a super efficient four for four week.
23:47It didn't kill you, but it didn't help you.
23:50And the big problem was the Bengals pass rush forced three Baker Mayfield fumbles.
23:54And because of all these turnovers, the bucks only ran 52 plays.
23:58Now, a booka with turf toe out targeted Godwin six to four and a booka was on the field a lot.
24:05So was Godwin. Godwin was not just a slot receiver.
24:08He was on the field for 49 of 57 snaps.
24:11So Godwin was playing a lot. He was super efficient when targeted and the team just ran into a buzzsaw of a Bengals defense.
24:19And the Bengals defense is not a defense that we can just target at will.
24:24That's the bears, Caleb Williams, the God, right? He is going to help propel whatever team is playing the bears.
24:30Hopefully that bears defense that is allowing 37 points to Bryce young.
24:34That's a team. That's the new Bengals. That's the team we're targeting.
24:38Okay. It's not going to be 37 points for the quarterback every week, but we can, we can chase that.
24:45We can chase the Bryce young outcome every single week for every team that plays the bears.
24:50You're just going to want to play everybody against the bears this year.
24:54Not so with the Bengals. The Bengals, this was the Bengals put a stake in the ground and said, no, we're a different team.
25:02Our front seven is actually getting after it this year.
25:05So those are some a good process, bad results, bad process, bad results, all those kinds of things.
25:11Except we didn't talk. We should, we should talk about a bad process bailout.
25:15Stripling. Okay. I checked. We were 17 and a half points behind consensus in best ball on where to draft Stripling.
25:22And we can't victory lap anything because he got hurt.
25:25It was the ultimate bad process bailout. He wasn't even getting snaps and running any routes before the injury.
25:32If you drafted Stripling at his ADP or earlier, that was bad process.
25:36And you don't have to feel any of the consequences because, oh, we got hurt and I'm okay.
25:42It must be nice. Little rip cord. You pull there, all your, all the Stripling fans get to, uh, get to fight
25:49for another day without having to admit any fault whatsoever.
25:52Good for you. Takeaway number four, the starter stream show I did with Chuck Bass.
25:57It was at 9am streaming on player profilers, Facebook.
26:00Check us out on Facebook at Roto Underworld on Facebook.
26:03We're on YouTube. Of course, the player profiler YouTube channel on Twitter X on player profile on Twitter X at Roto Underworld on Twitter.
26:11X. We had a phenomenal show. We really enjoyed ourselves, but we also made sure to point out Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson are a major, major problem.
26:20It doesn't matter where you drafted guys like Judkins, where you drafted guys like Drake London.
26:25We had Christian Watson over Drake London as a start or sit choice.
26:29And we had, I mean, we had, this was, this was the Chuck special right here.
26:34Jordan Mason over Quinshawn Judkins. So I want us to want to give a little shout out to Chuck.
26:40Right. He's feeling bad for, cause, cause he said he had, he had downs over neighbors and that, that, you know, again, it happens.
26:48It happens to the best of us. It's not like neighbors put up huge points, right?
26:53We didn't think neighbors had a spike weekend in this week.
26:57And he didn't because he told us he probably wouldn't.
27:00So we believed him and he didn't great, but he made up for it, man.
27:05I mean, Chuck really came through with this, this Jordan Mason and he even texted me.
27:10He's like, Jordan Mason touched out. Thank God. I was like, yeah, it wasn't a big spike week, but we saved it.
27:17We saved it. Jordan Mason over Quinshawn Judkins. Great show.
27:20Keep tuning in. I'm going to keep joining Chuck as much as he'll have me.
27:25I love doing that show on Sunday morning. We just have a great time with it.
27:30And we had, we, we, we, we nailed it this week.
27:34B. John Robinson. Let's get back to this, this trade.
27:37B. John Robinson. You want B. John Robinson. B.
27:40John Robinson. Plus whoever you're going to get on the waiver wire is better than Chase Brown and whoever else.
27:46Okay. Now I know it's not whoever else is David Montgomery.
27:50I love David Montgomery. Oh my God. So in on David Montgomery, David Montgomery, the arbitrage of David Montgomery over Basial Tootin
27:57and over guys like Trevion Henderson is one of the defining reasons why many of you and us, me, everybody is going to have a great fantasy season.
28:06Thank you to David Montgomery. It's so on with David Montgomery.
28:09And I, that was one of the great disagreements I had with John Paulson.
28:14We had a big disagreement on David Montgomery. Is he a dead zone back?
28:18And I said, no, there's, there's, there are certain backs.
28:22And I know that they're of a certain age just because a guy is older doesn't mean he's a dead zone back.
28:29Christian McCaffrey is older. He's not a dead zone back.
28:32Everything was lining up for David Montgomery. All you had to do was just listen to the team, listen to the player,
28:39and just accept the obvious with David Montgomery. That all said, B.
28:43John Robinson was so good. He had this handicap.
28:46He had this Cooper Rush handicap and he put up 30 points.
28:50That's one of the best 30 point performances in the history of fantasy football.
28:54Think about it. We had these two horrific quarterbacks out that being thrown and we just did walk away.
29:00Don't do it. Bench Fannin, bench pits, bench everybody.
29:03Okay. Just walk away. Not be Sean. Everybody else.
29:06Just walk away. We said play Christian Watson over Drake London.
29:10Judkins had six points. London had four points. Fannin had four points.
29:14Pits had zero. So Kyle pits. He's going to have 30 point weeks and zero.
29:18That's what he's going to do. So weird. Like we project, we have to project pits for something every week, right?
29:25We're like 11. I don't know. Like, what are you going to do talking to max about pits?
29:31It's like, eh, yeah, there's, it's just giant volatility every week with pits.
29:35You got to deal with it, but zeros are there.
29:38They're in the range of outcomes. Very much. So as is 30, once Michael Penix gets back, it's going to be on, right?
29:46We'll talk about this later. Buy low, sell high pits is very much a buy low because Penix is coming.
29:52Okay. Phrasing. I know phrasing. The Penix is okay.
29:55Bijan's unbelievable trade for him. Yes. You're packaging chase Brown and David Montgomery.
29:59You're shipping him and you're getting Bijan and you're going to, whoever you can get in the RB two spot, you're betting on your ability to find somebody.
30:08And we're going to help you find, we are going to help you player profile, our team.
30:14We're going to help you find the right RB two to play every week.
30:18And then the total points from Bijan plus RB two X will exceed chase Brown and David Montgomery because Bijan is unbelievable.
30:25He's unbelievable. I mean, he's, he's a threat to put up 30 points per game as is, as is Jameer Gibbs.
30:32We're going to talk about Jameer Gibbs. We're going to talk about him.
30:36Right. But before we do that, takeaway number six, this was the best year for wide receiver arbitrage.
30:42Unbelievable. Right. Cause, and we laid it out round by round.
30:46Right. Remember Romeo Dobbs. We said, no, no, no, no.
30:49Romeo Dobbs. No, no, no, no, no, no. At that, at that spot, you can get Devon Valle rounds later.
30:55You don't need to take Dobbs. Right. What about, uh, Quinton Johnston, Quinton Johnston, best ball drafters love over drafting bad receivers in good situations.
31:03And then those best ball ADPs then influence traditional managed league, seasonal league ADPs.
31:08Tale as old as time. The three biggest defenders were Dobbs, Johnston, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:13These are bad receivers. Widely acknowledged. These are bad players.
31:16They don't look good in practice. They don't look good in games.
31:20They don't produce. They say, this guy can get 800 yards.
31:24It's like, what are we doing here, man? We're talking about a top 100 pick.
31:29What are we doing? Quinton Johnston. He's not good.
31:31He's not better than Trey Harris. Trey Harris is a better player.
31:35Michael Wilson is a better player than Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:39I mean, Jalen Coker. We were 16 and a half spots ahead of consensus on Jalen Coker in best ball.
31:4523 and a half spots ahead on Valle. We were like 15 spots ahead on Michael Wilson.
31:50But every week that went by, Michael Wilson ticked up a little bit and Marv ticked down a little bit.
31:57It was the slowest drip ADP shift. But I remember looking up going, oh, we were massively bullish on Michael Wilson.
32:04Now we're just like six or seven points ahead of consensus.
32:07That's it. But either way, these were easy arbitrage opportunities.
32:10And boom, they cash in. And I put it up on Twitter at fantasy underscore mansion.
32:16Here's a real team. I have multiple teams. I have several dynasty league teams and I have several that have the exact same wide receiver core.
32:24It's Zay Flowers, Jalen Coker, Devon Valle in multiple teams.
32:27And you all are in leagues with me. You can go look at it.
32:32You'll see it. You can say, oh, wow, I guess.
32:35Yeah, he does have those guys. Yeah, I traded for Zay Flowers.
32:39I drafted Zay Flowers. I already had Zay Flowers on a bunch of teams.
32:43And then I went picked up Valle everywhere. I tried to get Coker everywhere.
32:48Traded for Coker. And you go back to the trade guide show.
32:52You can see all those trades where I got Coker and or drafted Coker in a startup.
32:5762 fantasy points for those three guys. Dobbs, Marvin Harrison Jr., Quinton Johnston.
33:01Seven fantasy points. Okay. All right. And that's nothing except that's no target share math.
33:06That's not pace of play. That's nothing. That's just good versus bad players.
33:10That's the easiest, lowest hanging fruit. Just don't draft bad receivers because targets and air yards are earned.
33:16You can draft a bad running back. You can even draft a bad tight end in a particular type of situation.
33:23And it can work. You can't draft bad wide receivers because it's such a struggle to earn targets.
33:29Just ask Josh Downs, right? I mean, he's like, hey, I'm finally going to get where I need.
33:35Oh, we signed Keenan Allen. Oh, God. Right? So even good players can struggle to get targets.
33:40If you're a bad player, why even bother? Michael Wilson, week one, tons of air yards.
33:45Like smashed. Like he had more air yards than Marvin Harrison Jr., which is really interesting because that's the whole thing that
33:52Marv had on him was he's going to get the air yards.
33:56No, no, no, no. Like Michael Wilson had a chance to come down with multiple deep bombs and they just didn't connect.
34:03Those will connect. They could have easily connected. Veilet connected on them.
34:07Veilet had multiple, more than one spectacular diving catch.
34:10So did Parker Washington. Another easy, too easy. The arbitrage.
34:13Parker Washington over Brian Thomas. We were Washington over Thomas back when Thomas was being drafted before Washington.
34:19That's a thing that happened. If you just came to Fantasy in August, you're like, yeah, I guess Washington's always...
34:25No, no, no. For months, Thomas was going before Washington.
34:29Washington's just a better player. We're going to do this.
34:32We're going to do this comp soon. I'm not waiting.
34:35The comp on Parker Washington will most likely change to Jerry Rice very soon.
34:40I can't wait. I mocked it up on Twitter.
34:43I put it up there. Told you, gave you a sense of what it's going to look like.
34:48But I'm happy. I'm happy this is happening. It's fun.
34:52Let's go. Let's do it. Soon. Right? Soon. Yeah.
34:54I mean, what was my... I had a bold prediction this year.
34:58Bold prediction. Let's put that up on the screen here.
35:02We'll put that up on the screen. The bold predictions.
35:05We had some bold predictions up on Substack, up on patreon.com slash podfather.
35:09We had bold predictions. I posted these a couple weeks ago.
35:13And one of them was, as you can see, Parker Washington ends the season with the official Jerry Rice comp.
35:19So that's probably going to happen. Number 10 here, Dallas Goddard leads all tight ends and touchdowns.
35:24Dallas Goddard had two touchdowns. And I think that it's very much going to happen.
35:29I don't see why it wouldn't. Dallas Goddard is their option.
35:33Their number one receiver is like 160 pounds. Like Devontae Smith refused to even be weighed when he was testing.
35:39He didn't want to give it away. He knows he's super tiny.
35:43Makai Lemon, tiny, right? And so it's just Dontavian Wicks.
35:46That's his competition in the red zone. Come on, man.
35:5012 touchdowns. Very easy. Super. I mean, he only has 10 left to get.
35:5410 more touchdowns and he gets to 12. So Dallas Goddard, again, I guess that's not that crazy.
36:00All right. And I'm just looking down the list here.
36:03Jadarian Price ascends, leaving Zach Charbonnet behind George Helani.
36:06That could happen, right? It's already there. I mean, forget what happens with Helani and Charbonnet.
36:11Price looked damn good in week one. Zay Flowers is a top five fantasy receiver.
36:16This hamstring injury, the news came out that it's not serious.
36:20Thank God. Even though it is a re-aggravation. When it's a re-aggravation, I'm betting on him not playing week two.
36:26You almost never play the next week if it's a re-aggravation.
36:30But he might just miss one week. And that's very encouraging.
36:33Cyrus Allen is Kansas City's number one wide receiver at the end of the season.
36:38That was actually a, that was a sleight of hand, bold prediction, because there's a lot that can happen to Rashi Rice
36:45to knock him out other than bad play. And then number six was DeAndre Swift outscores both Ashton Gentry and Jeremiah Love in total fantasy points.
36:53And that looks like it's going to happen. Yes!
36:56And then we have Caleb Douglas finishing as Miami's clear wide receiver one.
37:00Caleb Douglas, huh? Wow! Caleb Douglas. That's fun. Isn't Caleb Douglas fun?
37:04We love rookies, rookies that are producing. Why not Caleb Douglas?
37:08Right? Let's do this. Now, I thought for a moment that we should do our, we're going to do a dance party.
37:15Just to let you know. We're doing a dance party.
37:18People are wondering, wait, he already talked about Coker and Vele and didn't do a dance party.
37:24Last year or two years ago, the last time, the last season I did the top 10 takeaways, I was very conservative with the dance parties.
37:32I held them back. This year, I have taken the top 10 takeaways back over from Pete Nova.
37:38Pete Nova is going to be doing the Waver Wired show.
37:41Tune in tomorrow to Pete Nova doing the Waver Wired show.
37:45He's incredible. I love Pete Nova. The people have spoken though.
37:48The people have spoken and they've said, we want you, the emails, the tweets, thank you for your concern and encouragement to
37:56have me get back into this chair. Top 10 takeaways.
37:59Not easy. A lot of research is done Sunday night, late Sunday night, early Sunday morning.
38:04Me and my team, we get together. We put together a lot of information on usage snaps, route participation rates, all these things.
38:11We can understand who's a buy low, who's a sell low, all these things.
38:16If we're going to be doing all this work, hell yeah, we're doing dance parties.
38:21We're not going to hold back dance parties. We're not going to manage the dance party volume, withhold the good times and tease the audience.
38:29That's not what we're doing. We're going to be doing a dance party.
38:33Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Today. Of course. Of course.
38:36I get these orphans. I took over. Think about, think about my position.
38:40I'm in. I took over these orphans. Horrible, horrible teams.
38:43Right. And I, and a lot of them ended up drafting like a Fernando Mendoza.
38:48He had like the second pick, a guy was going for the one-on-one, didn't get the one-on-one abandons his team.
38:55I end up with it. Okay. What do I do?
38:58I, you know, I've been since super flex. My second quarterback is Baker Mayfield.
39:02And I'm like, I got to get a third quarterback.
39:05I got, you know, this is super flex is two QB.
39:09So I'm sitting there at the one Oh two, one Oh three drafting Fernando Mendoza guys that aren't helping me.
39:15And I'm putting together teams. I'm trying to scrape together players.
39:19I'm like, man, maybe George Alani can do something.
39:22Maybe we can get something from Dylan Sampson. You know, we're trying to piece together throw-ins and trades and pieces that are
39:29undervalued and see if we can, you know, do it, do a trade to get Coker and Michael Wilson for Marvin Harrison, something like that.
39:37Went pretty well. So now I'm sitting here looking at my, my, these rosters going, we're winning.
39:43We're winning. These are teams that were supposed to lose.
39:46And now, well, now you're like, well, what are you doing, dude?
39:50Don't you want Jeremiah Smith? Like the whole point, if you have a Mendoza and you're not going to make the playoffs,
39:57the whole point is to try to finish last.
40:00I don't play dynasty that way. I'm here to try to win.
40:03I'm competitive. A bunch of these leagues, actually, they reward this.
40:07They don't just reward tanking. So it doesn't matter.
40:10I can't tank. I I I'm not wired to do it.
40:13I'm not going to tank. And I'm looking down and I'm like, win, win, win.
40:18And I'm like, why win? Why win? Oh, because you started three awesome receivers and you got just enough points from the rest of the guys.
40:27You're getting a Juwan Johnson in there. It just enough, just enough.
40:31So of course we're going to have a dance party and it's going to be all about Jalen Coker.
40:37And it's going to be all about Devon Vale.
40:40Of course, we're not going to have a, there's going to be weeks where there's not a lot to celebrate, right?
40:46Anytime you could have an orphan that's supposed to finish last start beating competitive teams.
40:51You have to feel good about it. I don't care about my exact weight.
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42:35Why wait? This is a competition, okay? I'm not here to tank.
42:39I feel great. We should feel great. Everyone should feel great.
42:43A lot of you have a lot of Jalen Coker.
42:46And it's also very encouraging, even though Michael Wilson didn't put up a huge number, the air yards, the targets, it's very
42:53encouraging for what we're seeing from Michael Wilson. So just be encouraged.
42:57But there's one guy, and it was one of these bold predictions that we need to talk about, because sometimes it's great
43:04just to sink into an incredible situation and an incredible talent.
43:07My daughter and I were watching this Saints-Lions game, very exciting, and I just couldn't help marveling at one Jameer Gibbs.
43:14Jameer Gibbs, because my number one bold prediction was that Jameer Gibbs would break LaDainian Tomlinson's all-time fantasy point scoring record.
43:21LaDainian Tomlinson put up 481.1 fantasy points in an MVP award-winning season 2006.
43:25Last night, Jameer Gibbs posted 33.6 PPR fantasy points.
43:28And anyone that watched him play will tell you that that seems like a fair baseline score from one week to the next.
43:36Last year, he had just a 44% snap share in and around the goal line.
43:40This year, because of David Montgomery. Of course. Why do we love David Montgomery?
43:45Montgomery. Touchdown equity. That was the number one reason.
43:48Jameer Gibbs played every goal line snap. He was always, whenever there were fantasy points to be scored, Jameer Gibbs was there.
43:55And this Lions secondary has been hollowed out. The situation is such a perfect setup for Jameer Gibbs to break the record.
44:02And for Bijan to be right there with him.
44:05That's the, that's, see, that's it. That's the thing.
44:08We take these guys for granted. We draft him at the 101, 102.
44:12And we're like, do the thing you do because you're my top pick.
44:16And that's what you should be doing. Nah, nah, nah, man.
44:20I've had so many first round picks bust or at least underperform that I am, I am elevated.
44:25When I see a Jameer Gibbs out there doing what he's doing.
44:29I am elevated. I am soaring. Thinking about Bijan Robinson with Cooper Rush putting up 30 points.
44:35That's why we dance. Oh yeah. Jalen Koch. Devon Bailey.
44:38But also. Gibson Bijan! Yes. Yes. And more. More to come.
44:42We have so many other players we love that didn't necessarily perform at a high level.
44:47Ooh. And then don't forget all the weekly sleepers we're going to be releasing.
44:51The starter stream advice we're going to give. These guys hit.
44:55We're going to be partying. Why not? Because why not?
44:58Fantasy football is fun. Let's do this. Parker Washington spectacular touchdown, right?
45:02Now Thomas left with a shoulder injury. He's going to be back.
45:06He came back. He didn't get any targets, but he's going to be back.
45:10That shoulder injury is not a big deal. Bottom line though is this is the Parker Washington show.
45:16So that's another reason to party. There were so many reasons to party this week.
45:21We lost track. Don't forget about Parker Washington there.
45:24All right. There are some warning flares on some players, especially some key running backs we've got to talk about.
45:30All right. Basial Tootin. That usage is worrisome. We love David Montgomery over Basial Tootin for all the reasons you saw in week one.
45:38It all played out exactly how we would have hoped.
45:41Basial Tootin had one target. That was always the big problem with Basial Tootin is he doesn't command targets.
45:47And Chris Rodriguez is going to be active inside the 20.
45:51He just is. The problem is what we didn't even realize was that Chris Rodriguez would run more routes.
45:57Chris Rodriguez ran more routes in week one. That's terrible for Basial Tootin, especially because LaQuint Allen was barely active, right?
46:04He was a coin flip to even be active.
46:07LaQuint Allen is going to get worked in more in passing situations.
46:11So there's going to be games where Basial Tootin doesn't catch a single pass.
46:15So what do you do with Basial Tootin? Well, here's the thing.
46:19The Jaguars are so good that Tootin will score, right?
46:22He's going to be in situations where he's going to score a bunch of fantasy points.
46:27In seasonal leagues, I think you just hold. But he is a sell in dynasty.
46:32He is a sell high in dynasty. You can still sell high because it is the Jaguars.
46:38And he was especially involved later in the game.
46:40Now, the problem is when the game was in doubt, that's when Rodriguez had more touches.
46:46So when you break this game down every which way, look at it from every angle, Rodriguez is the buy low and Tootin is the sell high.
46:54It's just what it is. So we'll talk more about buy highs and sell lows and sell highs and sell lows later.
47:01I'm also concerned about Travis H&ETN. So H&ETN played less than 60% of the snaps in a game where Alvin Kamara was not active.
47:09If it were Alvin Kamara and they're down 20, understood, right?
47:13H&ETN gets scripted off the field. It's fine, right?
47:16But it was Kendra Miller. Kendra Miller coming in?
47:19Really? Holding him under 60% of the snaps? Really?
47:21And ETN H&'s fantasy point total was a bit of a mirage because nine targets in a game were shucked through the
47:28ball 56 times when ETN H&'s way. Okay, right?
47:31Like that's not sustainable. And Kamara's coming back. So I am absolutely entertaining offers for Travis ETN H& right now.
47:38Now, what about Diva on H&? Not ETN H&, just regular H&.
47:42Diva on regular H&. There's the ETN H&s and then there is the standard H&.
47:47That's how we're doing with the names, okay? You get three running backs with the same name.
47:52We got to figure out a way to distinguish them in a way that makes any sense and is that I can
47:59actually keep my brain focused on what I'm trying to say, where I'm going without stumbling over the names.
48:05So ETN H& it is. Diva on H&. It's not great.
48:09Okay, it's not great. This was a game where he was just like Ash and Gentry.
48:14This was the game where these guys needed to perform well because it's only going to get harder.
48:20They're going to have negative game scripts. Problem is Miami had a big, big time negative game script in this game as well.
48:27There's going to be a lot more where that came from.
48:31Apparently Miami is much worse than Arizona. That was a shocker.
48:34Arizona, shocking. That was a takeaway. Shocking. Most shocking outcome.
48:37Arizona beating a team at home who was favored by nine and a half.
48:42That's a takeaway from later. We're just going to merge it in because we are way over on time.
48:48We're almost at an hour. We're not going to make it.
48:52We're not going to make it. I said an hour and we're not going to make it.
48:57We're not going to make it, man. Damn it.
49:00Thought we could do it. We're not going to do it.
49:04Diva on H& looks like he's going to catch plenty of passes.
49:07He's on pace for 85 targets. That is not going to be the problem.
49:12That was the reason why so many were fading him.
49:15It's not the problem. The problem is the touchdown vulturing.
49:18He can't score if when they get inside the five, it's a rollout and Malik Willis keeps it for a touchdown.
49:25That's the thing that was not in the range of outcomes with Tua.
49:29So I believe that H& will be more TD starved than target starved.
49:34Either way, he's a boom bust player. He's going to have 30 point performances when he busts off a long run.
49:40He has that always in his range of outcomes.
49:43Never forget that about H&, that he is a volatile guy.
49:47He gets there with spike weeks. He doesn't get there with weekly production.
49:51But those spike weeks, they need the touchdowns. And if a spike week from Diva on H& is more 23 points instead
49:58of 33 points, that's where the governor really gets installed on his production.
50:02So I am not encouraged. You could absolutely shop H& in seasonal leagues and see what you can get back.
50:09That's another great example of a guy that I would package to try to get up to Gibbs or try to get up to Bijan.
50:17But he signed a long-term contract in Dynasty. They're going to upgrade their quarterback.
50:21They're going to get away from Malik Willis next year.
50:24So in Dynasty, I'm very little concerned about H&.
50:27I have been some Dynasty leagues and this is just going to be a very volatile season, but I'm not too concerned.
50:34I'm very concerned about Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offensive line.
50:38This was something that I wish I had talked about more in the offseason, which is the slow degradation of the Eagles offensive line.
50:46Like, I don't know what happened, but there's something wrong with their run blocking.
50:50And their pass blocking is good. Their pass blocking is just fine.
50:54It's their run blocking, which is problematic. And this tweet is pretty hard to believe.
50:59I'm going to put this tweet up on the screen here as it relates to Saquon Barkley.
51:04Look at this. From Sean Syed, after being afforded a very low yards before contact last season, Saquon Barkley had a second
51:11percentile yards before contact per attempt in week one.
51:14This would rank 2,729th of 2,785 qualifying games. Holy shit.
51:18What? Is it that bad? The run blocking is that bad?
51:21Saquon Barkley needs good run blocking. So, wow. I didn't see the Cardinals somehow being good.
51:26And I didn't see the Eagles offensive line somehow being bad.
51:30These were two of the biggest surprises of week one.
51:33And it's not good for Saquon Barkley at all.
51:36I don't love it. I don't love it. I hate it.
51:40I hate it. I hate it. He's another guy.
51:42If you could package A-Chan and Barkley to get Gibbs or Bijon, you do it.
51:47Oh, I can't believe this. I like Barkley this year, man.
51:51Damn it. But if he's not getting any daylight at all, and Jalen Hurts is always a threat inside the five-yard line,
51:58he's going to get fantasy points squeezed. He's going to get high-value touch squeezed.
52:02This is takeaway number 10. We're at takeaway number 10 now.
52:06I was very encouraged by what I saw from a number of rookie wide receivers.
52:11We talked about Caleb Douglas already. That was one of my bold predictions.
52:15That is coming true. 5 or 7, 94 yards.
52:18Huge. Get him at it. He is their wide receiver one.
52:21Because Chris Bell tore his ACL at the end of last season.
52:25He's not going to be himself this year. Chris Bell could easily be the wide receiver one next year, but this year,
52:32this year, you'll have to wait, Chris. It's Caleb Douglas.
52:36Casey Concepcion. He was the target leader. Denzel Boston was the receiving yards leader.
52:40Doesn't matter. It was the Browns and their offense is incompetent, but that's encouraging.
52:45Antonio Williams for Washington. 4 for 4. Bryce Lance.
52:473 for 4. Bryce Lance was 3 for 4.
52:50Oh, yeah. Yeah, look at this. So put up on the screen.
52:54We'll look at Valey first just because we love looking at Valey.
52:58Just love looking at Valey. I could look at this guy all day.
53:02I can't believe what. I'm so happy. Not only did he produce, but he produced with spectacular catches.
53:08It was so cool. Oh, my God. So cool.
53:11And then we have Bryce Lance, right? He made the right decision in what position that he was going to pursue.
53:18Look at this athleticism. Fourth round pick. He is commanding snaps, targets, playing well in week one of his rookie year as a day three pick.
53:26That is absolutely gigantic for a rookie wide receiver.
53:29It's almost Jalen Coker level year one usage where it's just unbelievable.
53:33An undrafted guy getting thrown right in. Almost unheard of.
53:36This is rare to take a guy who's a late fourth rounder and just throw him in week one.
53:42But we saw that. Very encouraging. Josh Cameron. The Josh Cameron.
53:46Am I the only one that knows who Josh Cameron is?
53:49Anyone know who Josh Cameron is? And some of you know who Josh Cameron is.
53:54Many of you have him in Dynasty. I love how many people listen to this show and how knowledgeable they are.
54:01The types of emails that I get, podfather at roto1world.com, just about improving the site or did you know this and that.
54:08Amazing. Amazing. Josh Cameron commanded some targets. Now again, partly because Brian Thomas went out and so they needed he was next man up.
54:16But encouraging. Encouraging. This is a player with an 88th percentile speed score.
54:20He's out there going two for two. Also, not necessarily an early round pick.
54:24Sixth round. Very encouraging. Very, very encouraging. These rookies didn't go nuclear.
54:28They didn't put up a lot of touchdowns necessarily.
54:31They were in situations that just didn't allow them to score touchdowns.
54:35They're on the Browns. Malachi Fields last night, right?
54:38He had more route participation than even Darnell Mooney.
54:41All very encouraging. Ted Hurst, three for three. Right?
54:44So, I mean, just look at the catch rate efficiency of all these rookies.
54:48Unreal. So cool. Takeaway number 11. This is very fringe.
54:52I know many of you don't care about this guy.
54:55But Tyrone Tracy has been quietly one of the more disappointing week one players.
54:59He had zero targets to Devin Singletary's four. He was supposed to be the third down back, supposed to be the two-minute drill back, the breather back.
55:08And yet his ADP collapsed. It was one of those ADPs where we were dropping him, but we couldn't keep up, where
55:15best ball drafters were just not touching him after the Dusty Najee Harris signing, right?
55:20So this is another one of those situations where I was like, I'm not going to push down Josh Downs into the 100s because of Keenan Allen.
55:29Now, we'll see if that ends up being a bad call, right?
55:32We should have pushed him down more. That's been acknowledged.
55:36Same thing with Tyrone Tracy. But the reason why it wasn't necessarily a obvious mistake is that it wasn't about Najee Harris.
55:43What the hell's going on with Tyrone Tracy? I'm looking at this Devin Singletary usage, befuddled, absolutely befuddled.
55:49I'm like, we got it right. Najee Harris is dust.
55:52He's not someone you need to be worrying about.
55:55You can't be discounting Cam Scadaboo because of Najee Harris.
55:58That's bad process. We were right. We were right.
56:01And with running backs in particular, old dusty running backs, this has always been our position and we're not changing it.
56:08Make a little bit of a tweak in the future for a guy like Keenan Allen, but not Najee Harris because it wasn't Najee.
56:15It was Singletary. If anyone has any information, this is like a missing persons report.
56:20Has anyone, have you any information about Tyrone Tracy?
56:23Please report it to me. Please submit a report to me.
56:27I want to know what the hell's going on with Tyrone Tracy because he's now just cuttable.
56:32And if you're in a deep dynasty league, I'm like, listen, the guy's explosive.
56:37He's got an all purpose skillset. He's got a running back ahead of him that has no regard for his personal health.
56:44He's probably going to be the starter at some point this year and be really productive in the context of the Giants offense, given his skillset, Tyrone Tracy.
56:53Now, if they're just in a close game, they're going to lean on Singletary.
56:57They're going to put Singletary out there over Tracy.
57:00Then I'm like, okay, I'm moving on, moving on.
57:03I can't believe I was offended by that usage.
57:06That was the one bit of usage down the board.
57:09I was offended by offend. I wasn't offended by Brissette.
57:12I wasn't offended by Bryce Young. I want these guys to be productive.
57:17Jacoby Brissette has been working his ass off. Goes 27 of 37, puts up almost 300 yards, a touchdown, no picks, only one sack.
57:24This Chargers defense is not what it was sold to be.
57:28And this Cardinals offensive line, clearly better than we thought.
57:31That was extraordinary. Bryce Young, 37 fantasy points. Extraordinary.
57:34Take that away. Think about how small he is.
57:37My daughter's comment was like, look how small Bryce Young is.
57:40I'm like, yeah, it's pretty cool that he's this productive given how diminutive he is, his stature.
57:46The takeaway is play everybody against the Bears. So finally, we've made it here.
57:50The final takeaway. We did it. We're well over an hour in.
57:54We're at the final takeaway. You made it. We all made it.
57:58Is Caleb Douglas worth a number one waiver claim?
58:01No, no. Caleb Douglas is not worth the number one waiver claim.
58:05I wanted to be major, massive cheerleader guy. He was one of my bold predictions.
58:10Want to just follow that up and just keep beating the drum, but I can't do it.
58:15I can't beat the drum because the number one waiver claim is very valuable.
58:20That is for running backs only. Like if a Cam Scadaboo did go down and you knew it was going to be
58:27all about Tyrone Tracy for the next six weeks, you use it on a Tyrone Tracy.
58:32So hold it back for that. Now, again, Tyrone Tracy betrayed us all by somehow losing his job to Devin Singletary.
58:39But there's other guys like that. I was going to say maybe a Dylan Sampson if something happens to Quinshot Judd kids.
58:46But no, no. Now that's Raheem Sanders. I don't know how serious this knee injury is for Dylan Sampson.
58:52Raheem Sanders, he's a good pickup. He's a very quiet guy to add this offseason.
58:57I'm hoping that Pete talks about Raheem Sanders this week, right?
59:00I've already added him in Dynasty throughout the offseason.
59:03But now in all leagues, he's a guy you can just quietly just add to the back of your waiver wire claims and just sneak him in.
59:12You don't want to use a top claim on a guy like Raheem Sanders.
59:16He's not the starter. But now he becomes a very interesting handcuff depending on how long Dylan Sampson is out.
59:23He's also caught some passes. Raheem Sanders is never known as a big pass catcher.
59:28He's out here commanding targets. I thought that was very interesting.
59:31I was like, hmm, we have Sanders commanding targets, but Tyrone Tracy's not.
59:35This is a weird opposite world we're living in, but I'm here for it.
59:40I'm absolutely here for it. So there's going to be situations where a player is on the waiver wire, like a Kendra
59:47Miller, and he's the clear next man up. And a guy like Travis ETN HN goes down.
59:53That's what you reserve your number one waiver claim for.
59:56That's it. Okay. We're here. Buy high, sell high, buy low, sell low.
60:00Here we go. Sell high, Tyler Shuck. Okay. Two interceptions and five sacks against Detroit.
60:05This offensive line cannot protect him. Yes. He was able to get it together at the end against a weak lion secondary, but he did the bare minimum.
60:14Really? If you think about it, if you watch the game, I know the numbers look like he did a lot, like he did the maximum.
60:22When you watch the game, he did the minimum.
60:25So I think that just you could sell just the fantasy point output to anyone that didn't see the game on Tyler Shuck.
60:32I think he is a sell. I'm worried about the saints.
60:36I don't think the saints offense is worth a damn at this point.
60:40And a lot of it has to do with the offensive line.
60:44It's not good. It's not good. You can absolutely let Tyler Shuck go.
60:48Remember Tyler Shuck was a second round pick and he's not necessarily the quarterback of the future there.
60:54We don't know who there's going to be a lot of new quarterbacks coming on the market next year and the saints
61:01may be in the market for a quarterback. We don't know.
61:05It's not a sure thing that Tyler Shuck is their franchise quarterback.
61:09So for several reasons in both dynasty and seasonal leagues, I think Tyler Shuck is a sell.
61:14I'm also selling high on Chuba Hubbard because he just came off.
61:18Anytime you play the bears, you do well. You're a sell high candidate.
61:22Really? He played 79% of the snaps, but Jonathan Brooks looked explosive.
61:26Jonathan Brooks had big plays and Jonathan Brooks just had to prove he was healthy and durable to his coaches.
61:32Now that snap share is going to tick up, tick up, tick up.
61:37And it's going to be at the expense of Chuba Hubbard.
61:40There's only one clear sell low. And if you know who that is, if anyone can guess who that is, you can't get anything for Romeo Dobbs.
61:49That's not a sell low. You can't get anything for Quentin, you know, Quentin Johnston.
61:54No, there's no sell lows. You know, you could sell low on Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:59Marvin Harrison Jr. Still has some name brand equity somewhere.
62:02I know someone thinks he's might still be good.
62:05Someone's willing to take a chance. Usually one out of 12, you're going to have someone in your league that wants to
62:12take a chance on Marvin Harrison Jr. Buy high.
62:15A couple of buy highs for you. Buy high on Caleb Douglas.
62:18We talked about him earlier, but also buy high on Dalton Kincaid.
62:22Dalton Kincaid got his route participation rate up from what was closer to 50% in previous seasons to 69%, which is nice.
62:29Okay. And he also had the 20 plus percent target share.
62:33And he was making spectacular catches. He was a guy that Josh Allen was looking at in clutch situations.
62:39Dalton Kincaid is going to be a top five tight end this year.
62:43So he is absolutely a buy high guy. You're like, buddy, he got 130 yards.
62:48Yeah, but no touchdown. So you can still get him.
62:51You can still get him. It's someone might think, oh, you're just, you're, this guy's a great sell high.
62:57You know, I got 130 yards out of him.
63:00He exceeded his expectations. He's Dalton Kincaid. We know exactly what he is.
63:05He's a little bit less than Tucker craft, right?
63:07He's Tucker craft light. No, no, no. I think he'll outscore Tucker craft this year.
63:12Buy low. We have a bunch of buy lows, a lot of buy lows, Justin Herbert by low.
63:18He took three sacks at an interception. I don't understand what's happening with Arizona.
63:23I don't know how they got good, but I do believe that Justin Herbert is good.
63:28He has a huge arm. He does have good enough weapons.
63:31We saw some nice plays by guys like a Ronda Gadsden.
63:35He's going to scramble a little bit more, but man, he looked comfortable in the pocket for large periods of that game.
63:42And then things really fell apart when, when they started getting desperate, he's going to have weeks where they go up against Kansas city.
63:50They, they go up against Denver. These are some of these, some of these defenses.
63:55They're good. That, that front seven, they have that those offensive linemen, the offensive front seven in Los Angeles, they're going to
64:02be able to nullify some of the better defensive front sevens in the league with that offensive line.
64:07And that will allow him to collaborate with a Patrick Mahomes, with a Bo Nix and shoot out some games.
64:14So I, I, we have been historically very bullish on Justin Herbert, the player, and he put up the same fantasy points as Joe Burrow.
64:22We've had him and Joe Burrow right there. Whereas most people have Burrow well ahead of Herbert.
64:27We have them pretty much adjacent everywhere. And so whether it's Burrow, whether it's Herbert, Herbert is a little bit better of
64:34a buy low than Burrow because not many people are just selling Burrow after one bad game, but you could absolutely see
64:42someone letting go of Herbert thinking, yeah, Herbert. No, no, no.
64:45Herbert's very, very good. He's a, he's got it all.
64:48He's the, he's the total package. So I want Justin Herbert as a buy low.
64:53Luther burden was five for five. He played. That's all we care about.
64:57It just didn't, the fantasy points didn't come. The spike week didn't work out.
65:02Same with the dunes. Hey, he played, he's going to be more healthy.
65:06He had a spectacular downfield play. He's only going to get better from here.
65:11Burden's only getting better from here. Colson Loveland, the most obvious buy low.
65:15I don't need to mention it. Who cares? He ran 92% of the routes.
65:19Come on, man. That is the ultimate, just variance zero of the season.
65:23So buy low on all these bears receivers. Buy low on Terry McLaurin.
65:28Terry McLaurin ran 10 more routes than Stefan Diggs.
65:31And Jaden Daniels under center more than he's ever been.
65:34Terry McLaurin's going to have weeks. Now is the perfect time to get him.
65:38He's like, oh no, I guess it's Diggs. No, no, no, no, no, no.
65:43That was one week. No, no. Terry McLaurin, he is a sports car.
65:47Just like Luther Burden's a sports car. Okay. Just like Justin Herbert's a sports car of quarterbacks.
65:52Terry McLaurin's a sports car. Get him. Kyle Pitts is a sports car of tight ends.
65:58Michael Penick's going to be back soon. He'll be back before October.
66:01You've got to get my, got to get Kyle Pitts before then.
66:05You might even wait though. We could have one more bad week.
66:09We could have one more Cooper rush to a week, but I would start now seeing what it's going to take to
66:16get Kyle Pitts, Kenyon Sadiq, Kenyon Sadiq ran around on 46% of the dropbacks by Gino Smith.
66:22That's going to go up, right? He was out all off season with this groin hernia problem, and he's been working his way back.
66:2946% of the dropbacks running around. That sounds pretty good actually.
66:33So Kenyon Sadiq, another one of these sports car, Pitts, Sadiq, athletic tight ends that didn't produce in week one that you can buy low on now.
66:42The number one buy low, and this is huge.
66:45This is a giant buy low. This is the buy low, okay?
66:49The most obvious buy low, screaming buy low, Rico Dowdle.
66:52Rico Dowdle played 39 of the team's 67 snaps.
66:55Jalen Warren only played in 25, okay? And even though Warren was more productive, okay, Dowdle ran more routes.
67:01Dowdle ran routes 17% more often than Warren did.
67:04This was incredible process. We had Dowdle as a guy you should start.
67:08If you're not going to start him in week one against the Falcons at home, when would you ever start him?
67:15And then he had the usage that you were hoping for, which is the reason you started him.
67:20Just like Gino Smith. Everything played out exactly why you would start Gino Smith, except he didn't get the touchdowns.
67:27Everything played out exactly how we wanted with Rico Dowdle in week one.
67:31He just didn't get the fantasy point scoring opportunities, but they are coming.
67:35Rico Dowdle is the best, the number one buy low on the board in fantasy football.
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